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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  September 18, 2013 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT

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1725.5 that's up 1 and a quarter percent. that will do it for the closing bell tonight. i want to thank everyone for having us here. stay with cnbc. more coverage on that announcement. fast money begins right now. meanwhile, i will see you tomorrow on closing bell. have a good night, everybody. >> this is fast money. here are our traders tonight. let's get straight to the top story of the day. taper fake out. stocks rip higher. yields in the dollar tank as ben bernanke says no taper. the we we ask is how are you playing the taper fake out. i want to kick it off with you,
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brian, because bad news is good news once again. >> to say i'm going to end this program. but the other thing that was surprising to me today is how much bernanke focused on the fiscal drag from the sequestration. i think that was a bigger factor in today's decision than the market is making out. >> he mentioned the drag that we have. >> no war, no summers, no taper, no fear. people going into a lot of significant events are short volatility here and got shorter today. i think the street has a long to
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sell. i would be getting ethere. the first sniff of bernanke in may, etc. etc. so there is still a lot to that trade to go. the debt side especially the sovereign dollar side is an interesting place to play here. if you look at the spread between the emerging market index against the spy, this is a spread that back six weeks ago had gotten back to five year lows. a spread you can continue to play through the fall. >> you know obviously it is a little bit of a knee jerk reaction. a lot of people got caught off sides here. that being said it's a pretty powerful break out here. the market has been making consistently higher lows and higher highs since every low that we put in over the course of the year. so the way i am trading this
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here is if you are already positioning for a better u.s. economy and you are going into cyclicals, then i think you can still do that here. what today's news doesn't put off taper forever. >> i will give you one more note, no earnings growth.
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>> mike you are probably the only person i heard on tv saying no taper yesterday. >> i didn't think that the economic data supported it. we're all going to look at those data points on our own and in my view i don't think the economic data is that strong. it doesn't just speak to taper. it talks to stock valuations in general. for a very long time probably the last 12 to 24 months we have been able to say that the s&p has been below average corporate earnings yield. i wouldn't be surprised to see the gidyness start to run out. you will start running out of ways to squeeze more on to the eps side. i'm starting to feel like equities are getting to a heavy level.
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>> not only that actually something that tim said earlier today, he talked about how this gives the rest of the world and the bank of japan cart blanch to print money as well. >> i did say that and i agree with that. gold was -- and the cascading fall in april, before we got the fed's first formal announcement. it's going to happen sooner or later. isn't this one more run for people to chase gold. in two weeks it could start a flow. if you believe what they said today, communication is the buzz
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word. listen to the data. >> you could. you then have the inflation part of it coming in. >> anyways, if you look at oil, that's where your inflation is going to come from and that's going to feed into the gold trade. >> let's move on. let's more on the taper fake out. >> this is a surprise even for you. what's the next play? >> i think there were a couple of positive take aways. i think the bond markets telling us there may be some change in expectation s expectations the second is with had cyclical rallies.
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i think this still sets us up constructively. it does take away that many points from the up side. the responsible of it being a 2014 event is now on the table as opposed to sometime this year. >> i think in the short term it's still unbalanced positive. but it's absolutely right. we do think that asset purchases are going to end. it's one or the other, i think. >> it's an improving economy.
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>> this might sound like a wimpy answer but it depends on the economic conditions at the time. i think that is also the message that we got today. if we had better growth and better employment i think we would all be a lot more comfortable with 3%. >> today we saw significant flattening of the yield. >> banks don't want to lend because there is no margin. >> in a way you would say v to say is this a good or a bad thing?
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and now, i think we are forcing people to make decisions as well. >> in terms of allocations, part of your job is to know where the money is going and where people are positioned on some level. where do you think real money was going into this in terms of cyclicals and resources? does this get some of that money off the sidelines? >> it's interesting. you would really want it. and so in some ways continuing that out performance. the financial market now has some support.
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>> you see this knee jerk reaction. in all of this trillions of dollars of stimulus and not really seeing meaningful growth. doesn't the danger increase of a really bad situation? ultimately when they are pushing on a string and they are not seeing any positive effects or it just crashes because it is the only thing that is inflated is the stock market. to to. >> that's not the support i was thinking of. >> crash. >> i actually think that investor s investors we probably would have been relieved to see the market
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rally. that would have been a better market round up. but because we are seeing change in expectations. one thing i would note, though, when you looked at past tightening cycles half the time it is occurring when economic growth is accelerating. are we in a period where we would all be comfortable? or is it not? >> but rates are abnormally low. >> correct. our economic expectations accelerating in the next few quarters. >> hey there, melissa. thanks so much. as we try and figure out what the world's biggest investors think about the day with so much rising decision from the fed, i know oobt one of them.
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we spoke via e-mail. i guess you could say that we like maybe a lot of investors tonight were a little bit surprised that the fed didn't do anything. but he is well positioned for that. he told me if the ten year continues to rally that stocks will rally as well. he reiterated the fact that he thinks that bonds remain overvalued. he thinks that stocks are starting to look a little stretched as well. he calls them modestly overvalued. he said the idea that the economic is still too weak to taper. and the market goes up and has its limits. i think itd's fair to say that it's positive on the market. i should also let you know that i spoke a short time ago.
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other than the fact that the market acted appropriately in his words. he was maybe not as bullish but still bullish. i think you have a good bit of insight from two big successful and top performing hedge funds of managers on where they think this market could go in the near future. >> it sounds like he is almost moving towards catch at this point. >> he has maintained for a while that he thought the market is fully valued based on the fact
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that we have had this great rally since the beginning of the year. i don't know what the odds were. i think he just becomes a little concerned after a while that if you keep going up at some point the market is going to be overvalued and that you're going to be robbing future gains that we see today. i guess -- i guess you could say he is cautiously optd mystic on the market? that would be putting words in his mouth. i don't know. go ahead. >> it sounds to me like he is maybe fearful of the impact that this has had. >> all right. -- >> quick lyly. he is trying to create this wealth affect to try to have the trickle down and push back obviously on that is that yeah
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it's creating wealth. and clearly rates have been so low for so long. and yet everything that the fed has done has not gotten the economy to the point where the fed feels like they can pull the punch bowl away even a little bit. >> and making big moves just out from his guidance. also coming in light. they have just reported. no taper. how will the chairman's data talk? and starbucks ceo joins us to discuss his latest effort to discuss gun control, telling
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customers that guns are no longer welcome in his stores. vo: i didn't get where i am today by luck. i put in the hours and built a strong reputation in the industry. i set goals and worked hard to meet them. i've made my success happen. so when it comes to my investments, i'm supposed to just hand it over to a broker and back away? that's not gonna happen. avo: when you work w ith a schwab financial consultant, you'll get the guidance you need with the control you want. talk to us today.
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>> welcome back. major moves today with the surprising fed decision.
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all posting some very, very strong gains at this point. and it goes to this notion of low interest rates means that people continue borrowing. that will be supportive of the home builders. that's the worst. >> we had some home builder numbers that were fairly bearish. it seemed as though when housing starts up and permits were down less than what people expected. >> they are actually holding in there very well. i would take this as an opportunity to fade the segment. a lot of good news is priced back in here do you really want to jump in tomorrow? i don't think so. especially after the move we have had. >> you are in on tim's trade here. >> in housing stocks? absolutely. you got a reprieve if you're in these things. i would take advantage of it and
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sell them for sure. these things are highly interest rate sensitive. you didn't get it today. when it comes it will sting you very badly. i would absolutely avoid them. >> let's get to the after hours mover and that is oracle. josh just off of that conference call. >> a member was looking for 56 cents. a beet on the bottom line. looking through the release you saw revenues for new software licenses. they were up 4% to $1.7 billion. that was better than expected. revenue at 660 million.
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on the conference call, the cfo did give some guidance. eps between 65 and 70 cents. melissa, back to you. >> here is the thing we talked about at the start of the show. if you are positioning for cyclical names, oracle falls right into that category. here is the thing. this stock is trading. this stock is back towards 30, maybe 31. >> the margins are actually
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pretty good. but the guidance was pretty lousy. you have got be really careful. if it breaks this time then the stock will really sort of head south in a hurry. >> acquisitions, too? >> and also the stream that comes from a lot of their maintenance business. you're having a changing investor base. that has been some of the pain in this stock. i think ultimately it's a stock in transition. i would not be scared of it right here. >> here are stocks generating the most chatter.
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>> the phones have gotten very good reviews today on the day that ios seven is launched. the phones go on sale friday. at the end of the day we will hopefully get some data at the end of the week. after the weekend what units they sold to them. >> next up the release of what's known as gta 5, grand theft auto five sales in the game in the first 24 hours exceeded $800 million worldwide. mike you like this stock? >> you know it's interesting. to get some sense of the scale of that realize that this company is going to do less than $2 billion in sales overall, that will still represent better than a 15% incosin over last year.
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don't expect this thing to rocket. >> joining the $1,000 club for the first time ever. people think that because it's a time honored stock, it must be expensive. it's not a crazy expensive stock. i hate to say it. we have said it in a while. >> the best way is to play the big moves, straight ahead.
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thank you orville and wilbur... ...amelia... neil and buzz: for teaching us that you can't create the future... by clinging to the past. and with that: you're history. instead of looking behind... delta is looking beyond. 80 thousand of us investing billions... in everything from the best experiences below... to the finest comforts above. we're not simply saluting history... we're making it.
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we asked people, "if you could get paid to do something you really love, what would you do?" ♪ ♪ [ woman ] i'd be a writer. [ man ] i'd be a baker. [ woman ] i wanna be a pie maker. [ man ] i wanna be a pilot. [ woman ] i'd be an architect. what if i told you someone could pay you and what if that person were you? ♪ ♪ when you think about it, isn't that what retirement should be, paying ourselves to do what we love? ♪ ♪
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>> lots of big movers today. take a look at utilities. unchanged here. but seeing their best day since august 2011. >> i think if you want to continue to buy these, if you think that yields will be a bit lower, utilities are their ultimate safe haven. they give you a good dividend and they have to issue a lot of debt.
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>> pricing power is something that will help these guys in the short run. today, em debt also gets a huge bid on the fact that people are looking for yield. >> what's your best bond proxy? >> i don't think any of these bond proxies either. evaluations are very rich historically. i don't like them as a value play. the utilities i would avoid. >> the dollar taking a big hit following the fed decision not to taper. great to have you with us. >> with the appointment expected
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within a matter of days what do you expect the dollar to go to at this point? >> yes, i have to say today's fed announcements were some of the most surprising that i have seen in a long time. every single one was confident we would get the tapering and we didn't. on top of that there were other dovish elements of today's news. the longer term in interest rate projection for 2016 they were also lower than expected. it was just a very dovish cocktail. the big question is we are starting to retrace but i think
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markets can gain further on the back of the news today. >> so we recommend. >> a couple of glios they had a chance to do something today and make a statement. >> yeah. so i certainly think in japan we are likely to see more stimulus. >> we are starting to see interesting differentiation. how they will start the tapering
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process will depend on the flavor of the data and that will be absolutely key. >> it sounds like you are still in favor of a short yen position. what would you put yourself against? >> very good question. we really like that cross. >> it's great to speak with you. it is interesting because you talk to a lot of portfolio managers. they would probably have said prior to today that the economic data does not support the beginning of tapering. >> i thought that the economic data was not warranted. i am exactly that person. i don't think that the economy is strong enough for them to taper. but i thought they would do $10 billion because ben bernanke is
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leaving. they talked about it and they are all about communication. >> we all got duped. they all came back and said it was a done deal. >> this was the biggest consensus. what happened to these people. when you're playing the dollar you're not playing a one month. >> do you think they can throw any more money? they probably can. but if you don't think the dollar will respond to all the other problems in the world in addition to this being the best economic in terms of real fundamental growth there is no question to me.
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>> the fact that we did nothing sends a bad message. so to have not done something here, and people are positioned for it they are setting people up for a bigger fall. this is where it gets real tricky if you're in that trade becauses if the bank of japan doesn't do something there is a high correlation that the yen strengthens. >> it was interesting coming into this. it was probably twice what it was on the calls but the most interesting trade i saw today was actually a sale of the 110,
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115 strangle. they are selling that put and they are selling the 115 call. if you are selling the calls, you're saying i'm not expecting it to move a whole lot. basically what they're say something they think the stock will be range bound. not up or down more than 10% between now and january. >> we do want to see how the s&p futures are setting up on the back of the big fed decision. we can take a look at that and see where we're at. we are holding the flat line at this point. this is still keep in mind this is record territory. >> we will have to see how the asian markets respond tonight. >> very true. >> starbucks by asking customers to leave their weapons at home. we will hear from the man himself.
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>> the coffee giant ceo will run full page ads starting tomorrow telling customers that guns are no longer permitted in its
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cafes. howard always great to see you. >> appreciate the opportunity. >> why now? >> let me start from the beginning. starbucks as you know is not a policymaker. we are not as a company pro or anti-gun. how, over the last few months or so we have seen ourselves thrust into this debate in a way that is not consistent with the values and guiding principles of our company. as an example, both pro and anti-gun advocates have used our stores as staging grounds for their own positions as recently as last month in view of that, stark bucks have been miz represented on either side of the issue. because of the open carry law, which i think is quite confusing and ambiguous for many people around the country, when a person legally is carrying a gun and decides to walk into a
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starbucks store, i think our customers and young children are tremendously uncomfortable and somewhat jarred from the experience. and we have just come to the conclusion that we're not anti-gun we're not pro gun but guns should not be part of the starbucks experience. we're not banning the gun. the reason is we don't want to put our people in the uncomfort uncomfortable position of having to support -- did we lose the connection? >> no, we're here. go ahead. howard? can you hear me? howard? all right. so we lost howard there. we will try to work on that audio issue and bring him back. this is a very important and interesting issue. there is so much more to ask
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. >> we're going to serve you and we will go on with our day. but we think the vast majority of americans will understand the policy and think it's reasonable and most people will respect the question. >> why not just say starbucks a corps -- >> oh jeez. >> can you hear me howard? howard? >> okay. hopefully third time's a charm. and we will continue to work on this. these are very important issues. let's trade starbucks at this point? >> we have liked starbucks for a
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while. it's an interesting stance they are taking. i think the more interesting trade here though it closed lower on the day. >> if you look at the future earnings, this company is trading somewhere in the low 20s. these guys are in the second inning of where they are growing. we spent years talking about yum in china. starbucks the brand they want to follow. >> all right. we apologize to howard. we are not able to fix that audio issue. we hope that howard will come back on to fast sometime in the future. those ads start tomorrow and that policy starts tomorrow again. heart disease, the number one
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killer of americans this year past years. but soon all of these new advances that we have seen could actually change that. take a listen. >> how about we try this one here? >> this doctor showed us how simple it is to use these new tools. >> so put my fingers here? >> yes. >> and it creates a loop with your heart. >> here sit coming up. >> oh wow. is that healthy? >> it's looking good. >> okay. good. >> researchers are developing sensors that can be tattooed on to our skin and others small enough to be swallowed. on the horizon, a nano sensor tinier than a grain of sand injected into the bloodstream. >> you get a ring tone like you get an alert that you're going to have a heart attack in the weeks and days ahed
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ad. >> everybody has one of these things. they will collect data and they will be able to pinpoint eventually what causes that heart attack and send you a ring tone or a message. >> please send that tone to me. >> you want to check in with your doctor because you're at risk for a heart attack for the next 48 hours. >> are there privacy issues with this stuff? do we want this technology on us or inside that body? >> at the same time we don't know how this information will eventually be used. if insurance companies get better data will they charge you more money in premiums.
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>> i will tell you something, that is exactly it. >> i thought you were dead. i would love to learn more about this type of stuff. is there any possible way for me to do it? >> tonight at 9:00 in fact. >> no. >> rise of the machines the premier of this documentary on cnbc 9:00 p.m. eastern and pacific pacific. >> i'm watching. abc absolutely. from currency to bonds. the latest on these moves after this.
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>> what do you like here in terms of emerging markets?
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>> they have had quite a bit of run. tim took a lot of it off. i think it's hard tomorrow to say let's buy these tomorrow. >> all right. in case you missed some of today's top moments, here is a rapid fire recap of tonight's executive edge. >> a week ago, goldman sachs became part of the dough. how has that happened? when did you learn about it? >> we didn't have a clue. if we had a clue i would have been obsessing about it. we didn't know anything about it. i will have to work with whomever has that job so it is quite convenient that i like everybody. >> all of these names out there, who would you take?
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>> i pick none of the above. i don't think it makes any difference. they all endorse the principle of manipulating interest rate. >> the fed says taking into account fiscal restraint. it decided to await more evidence that progress will be sustained before adjusting the purchases. >> unemployment is falling faster than we anticipated. so in that respect we were too pessimistic. >> with the federal reserve knowing how pivotal the events will be in october, it may have forced him to delay any decision of tapering until late october or november.
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>> let's go and take about blank fine. >> lloyd is a genius. how long has he been ceo?
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>> pops and drops. kick it off with a pop here. >> huge move but huge volume as well. hopefully you took profits today. i don't think it goes significantly higher from here folks. >> a drop and the move 2%. >> one of a few stocks here on the day. if you are long on that tha you just use a 26 $stop. >> you squeaked like peter
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brady. >> it ripped. take the proftds. >> pop for pandora. >> artists, like it or not, pandora is here to stay. they won a big case from some trying to with hold catalogs of premier ortists. >> pop here for avalon bay. >> we saw sequential increase. >> all right. and a pop here for wheelies? >> guy, is that you?
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tie roan williams proved that bikes can be used for any extreme stunts. >> he rocks. >> the viral video has racked up more than a million views on youtube. >> tim knows his stuff. don't try this at home. >> and you should wear helmet. >> i don't know about the helmet thing. >> sidewalks, all we need are people doing kick outs on the city bikes. >> i agree. right on. >> i don't know what that is. >> kick outs. >> first moves tomorrow when we come back. stay tuned. we asked people, "if you could get paid to do something you really love, what would you do?" ♪ ♪ [ woman ] i'd be a writer. [ man ] i'd be a baker. [ woman ] i wanna be
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a pie maker. [ man ] i wanna be a pilot. [ woman ] i'd be an architect. what if i told you someone could pay you and what if that person were you? ♪ ♪ when you think about it, isn't that what retirement should be, paying ourselves to do what we love? ♪ ♪ thank you orville and wilbur... ...amelia... neil and buzz: for teaching us that you can't create the future... by clinging to the past.
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and with that: you're history. instead of looking behind... delta is looking beyond. 80 thousand of us investing billions... in everything from the best experiences below... to the finest comforts above. we're not simply saluting history... we're making it. mine was earned in djibouti africa. 2004. vietnam in 1972. [ all ] fort benning, georgia in 1999. [ male announcer ] usaa auto insurance is often handed down from generation to generation. because it offers a superior level of protection and because usaa's commitment to serve military members, veterans, and their families is without equal. begin your legacy, get an auto insurance quote. usaa. we know what it means to serve.
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>> final trade time. mike? >> i still like long deere and short cat. >> come to the bitter end tonight to support a great charity. we are playing a leg to stand on. >> i took profits today. >> i started the show saying i like gold. i will end the show saying i like gold and i'm also a buyer in rise of the machines. >> big time. >> so go to timmy's gig. you hang outd with with him.
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tivo and buy new corps. >> all in one night? >> that's right. a big night. >> thanks for watching. see you again tomorrow at 5:00. don't forget rise of the machines. i will my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now! >> hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cray america. my job is not just to entertain you but to educate and teach you so call me. remind me never to pay poker with fed chief b
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