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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  September 19, 2013 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT

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tomorrow. stay with cnbc. fast money begins right now. this is "fast money". here's tonight's line-up. bears in hibernation. so far investors in bear suits have gotten destroyed but as everyone faces the taper fake out, it's time to face have you come too far too fast? losing its luster. goldman sachs joins the doughw on monday. we have a wall street smack down. and back to the future. intel's futurist is joining us with the machines of the future. >> karen, guy, and mike are
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here. both the dow and s&p snapping a rally as yesterday's fed decision not to taper begins to sink in. gold rallying higher and the u.s. dollar falling to a seven month low. what are the best ways to play this post fed euphoria? we sort of didn't do much today? >> the key is you want to let it settle in. you want to let the spike settle in. maybe a three day rule applies the market. you want to see if utilities hold. >> what else? >> this is a different kind of show. >> it's technical. you always wait for that you always wait three days. think that those still hold true for the next couple of weeks or so. >> gold higher right? big day today right? two days in a row. at what point do you say well,
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if it is on if risk is on you want to be in equities over gold? >> i think you can be in both actually, for the short term. the move to 1725. i think it is overextended to. i think that the gold trade is back in tact. i think the irresponsibility of the fed has put you right back into this gold trade. >> gold had gone from 1800 to 1500. the global tent ral bank all they had to do is 10 or $15 billion. i think now it's every man for
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itself. i think that all leads to weakening dollars. >> i think that it was such a fluid event. look at that one line talking about emerging markets. >> then you saw it spike higher. >> i got to bring up thing? >> the last two days you have not seen a move of this magnitude in quite some time. i would be surprised if this was it. >> this may be a really dumb question but i'm going to ask. the moving goal to me looks like -- i don't know if something rolled over or something.
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i saw it do 50 during the day. >> i know gold was up 40 or 50 bucks today and an additional 40 or 50 bucks today. >> i don't know exactly. >> the august contract with any number of things. but gold has rallied significantly. >> he has had the move lower. >> all right. >> i think i would want the ejected volatility. much of bernanke's tomorrow trying to get communication in the market. i have no idea what they are really doing. the way markets are setting up they have injected a ton of
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volatility. they are going to taper. look at the housing numbers. look at the fed today. you had amazing data. if you believe any of this is real and the fed had this information in their meeting, you have to be selling bonds. you have to be expecting that ten year closer to three before it goes to 260. and finally, it's nice that people suddenly think that emerging markets are cool again, but emerging markets were underperforming by 40% over the last year and a half. that is the reason you want to own them. not because the fed is out of the way. >> yeah but this was an incredible move where they sold off. and then the rally back. it is hitting resistantce here. i am still long because i think people view this as an all clear sign. to tim's point, yes they are going to taper, but we don't know that. >> we didn't know when before.
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>> there is too much -- he just said they're trying to be transparent but everyone is more confused than ever before. so now people are starting to think maybe they took the taper off. they took the real sting out of taper, out of the trade. >> mike? >> it's interesting. tim referenced today something that looked good. recognize the fact that we had an epic increase in rates earlier. when everyone was anticipating the taper, it was easier to anticipate the fed's action. as they did you saw lenders say we have got to start laying off mortgage brokers because we are expecting fewer loan applications. the fed has to recognize that there has been a big shift in the marketplace. everyone is asking them to telegraph way in advance. the hand they are dealt is not so hot. you have to wait for that to play out. you can even leave all of the government spending issues out
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of it. those items alone were enough reason for them not to step in at that stage. i think equities are fully valued here. i'm not exactly sure what everyone thinks is the upside. economic growth is really not that spectacular. >> we do want to go down to washington d.c. where becky saturday down just moments ago with warren buffet and brian moin han. >> we are here at georgetown because brian and warren buffet will be sitting down and speaking with a group of about 700 students. before that they had the chance to sit down with us. obviously we talked about what the fed did yesterday. to brian moinahan maybe a little less so. recently. bank of america announced that
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it would be laying off mortgages. we asked if the fed's decision to not taper just yet would help the economy. >> we see very constructive growing at you don't kneel a. >> of course the mark has also been wondering who is going to be calling the shots. we asked warren buffet who he would like to see as the next fed chief and his answer might surprise you. >> if you have a .400 hitter in the line up you don't take him out. he may want to leave, but i think he has done since the panic of five years ago, i think he has done a terrific job.
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>> stocks were ridiculously cheap but at this point he thinks stocks are more or less fairly valued with what they have seen in the markets. they have a greattive with what is happening. with industrial businesses and beyond. we will go measure in-depth tomorrow morning on "squawk box". we will talk about that and regulation. we will talk about the pros and cons and how a company decides to sethle with a government. we will have all of that. right now, melissa, i will send it back over to you. >> thank you so much becky. she spoke to those two before
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their live conversation on stage. >> your alma mata yes. >> we have some breaking news here. >> melissa, this is interesting news coming out regarding j.c. penney, the embattled retailer. on friday 13 we told you that steven roth was stepping down. now dow jones has learned, according to dow jones, 13.4 million shares has been sold via an underwritten deal by citigroup. via a deal with citigroup. more details to come as the story develops here.
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last week steven roth the ceo steps down from j.c. penney's board. we will bring you more details as they become available. >> we should keep in mind that they filed last week saying they intended to sell their stake so it's not entirely surprising today. it was a surprise the delay of the sale. >> i don't know why you would say i intend to sell and then don't do it. >> i talked about it i still think it could easily go from 15.5 we have seen rimm blackberry bounce before they
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>> let's bring in rebecca paterson. how do you interpret the no action? >> the market had discounted a modest taper. it would be a way of telling the market that they are not going to be there forever. even if the economy isn't roaring ahead, the fact that housing data auto data all held up this summer made me think that we could probably get through it. that's behind us.
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doing a little better japan doing a little better. share buy backs continuing. i think shares could go higher. >> you are reluctant. >> the only reason why you are bullish is because of the fed's easy money policy? >> no no no. the fed is part of it for sure. the better global backdrop, the fact that it's not larry summers, all of that plays into the view too. there is nothing against the intellectual capacity. >> it does. and again, i think it's really important to keep an eye on the leading indicators because we have seen a very strong correlation between them and multiples over the last couple of years. it doesn't seem to me that that is turning around. >> do you think there is data that they are privy to that we are not that they are aware of try
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trying to navigate and thread the needle to get the market ready to raise rates. they know that was a great opportunity. are we reading too much into it? maybe they see more that we don't see? >> i don't think that the fed has any secret data. i think they have models and the models have changed. that was another reason that i was surprised. i thought the models and reports that we have gotten have said qe is not helping as much as we thought a year ago. if it's not helping, why are we doing it? strange decision to me. i think they are worried about congress having a big circus later this fall and that impacting sentiment. i think they are worried about that and they are worried abhousing and what the rise in mortgage rates will do down the road. >> i notice you enjoy the bounce in a market. what does that mean? you're a massive institution. you don't day trade. you make allocations. is that your way of saying emerging fundamentals can rise to the top when people are not
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worried about the tape sner. >> we reduced our wait into an emerging market debt. while i do believe emerging market equities may continue to bounce. maybe it's another week or months. maybe it's december maybe it's january. now it could come faster. stronger dollars still coming. so, from someone who is facing this as a trader i think you can enjoy this opportunity and em a little longer. for someone allocating i would just be careful you don't stay at the party too long. probably getting towards the upper end of its range.
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>> people push down their expectations so things can be. we get volatility and a lot of opportunity within stocks. >> sinking in the afterhour session. >> shares certainly a focus. that's after it's siting the impact as well as a seasonal slow down in shipments to the auto industry.
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it has not been able to steal as much product because of that unplanned outage. like you said down in the aftermark session. >> and speaking of steel, our own guy has been calling for the turn around on "fast money" for quite a while. >> if china has bottomed and they turn although they do face competition, again, as levered as these are, the stocks should go higher from here. i think it gets 17.5. >> the steels feel like they have finally turned the corner. new course actually had a nice year. the steel sector might be trying to tell you something as well. >> you sound like a mad man. >> it was your final trade yesterday. we got the call here.
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now what? >> it's not a bad time to be taking money. i think new corps is still okay. they made a 52 week high i think today and sold off later in the day. that's its own animal. if you maybe categorize them i think new corps number one, u.s. steel two, but i think it trades back down to 20 and ak steel is a distant third. if you look prices have gone from 150 to 235 in the last three months. for guys that are not attached to the mining side kind of a
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restructuring play. >> how about to play off of the china call? play dry ships. do you have to play it that way? is the mark ending that way? >> that index has gone up and doubled. >> chippers? >> they are volatile though. >> yeah. >> and a lot of them are small caps. >> time now for pops and drops. >> that's not a pop. that is years' worth of work for them. they have so much leverage. if they're able to turn it around, there is a lot more upside in this stuff. >> a drop here for j.c. penney down 2%. >> if a lot of the sellers are getting out of the way you would think the stock should move higher. i do not like the j.c. penney story but technically if the
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overhang lifts? >> the overhang lifted. is it now okay? >> i would think technically you could get into the stock right now. i do not like that it's making lower lows. i haven't been in the main. >> a drop here for lennar. >> just a reverseal of activity that we got. the negative correlation between rates and homes and i still would avoid them. >> tim? >> they also missed on the revenue lines. cost inputs they have not been able to benefit. they are really deteriorating rapidly. >> drop here for the financial. down 4%. >> this is stock that is 40 million shares today. i think it gets 9 bucks which would support back in may and
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june. so i think at 9:20. >> the hound was discovered by a ukrainian man who is thought to be a mix. the pup is dressed for the part with white markings on his chest that form a furry tie. >> i want to be on record. he watches the show. i'm -- >> whatever. >> it wasn't me. >> tell you how the trade these headlines and that's next.
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♪ >> goldman sachs joins the dow jones industrial average on monday. the stock is trading at levels not seen since 2011 up more than 32% so far this year. should you buy this momentum? time for a good old fashioned street fight. >> hello. good to have you on board. looking for the last three quarters reported. they absolutely on the upside they have smoked not only on the eps side but on the revenue side as well. i think that will happen again and october 17th. also tangible price to book. that has grown pretty
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consistently over the last three quarters from 134 to 138 to 141. they are not ridiculously priced at tangible book. >> these guys are there. take care of things. >> the bar was very low for these guys to be. we led in with pearl jam saying fade away. that's the whole point. puts them in the middle of the pack.
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if you look at the business. look at what jeffrey said a couple of days ago, down 85%. goldman is not jeffries but a lot of these guys are under pressure. the best of times are behind these guys. look at the stock. >> did you hear the buzzer? >> let him finish. >> ten times over the last eight years this stock has stalled out at $170. >> tim, do you have a graphic? do you have a graphic. >> you didn't have a grachk. >> you need a graphic, tim. >> of the steely. >> get girls with the graphic. >> get it with the graphics. >> you had me at the graphic. did you have karen at the graphic? >> what's the verdict? >> i would be long goldman sachs now. we will have a tough time. >> 28% of the business. >> premier, pree mere franchise
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in this business. >> we will see what the people say. >> tweet us or tell us who you thought won the street fight. results at the end of the show. let's check in with mike to see how the options traders are playing out. that is not risking a great deal. less than 1% of the current share price. above 171.5 by next friday. >> all right. so let's get back to the broader markets here. we gave you the bullish post but what about the bear case? brad portfolio manager at the active bear fund. great to see you. >> thanks. >> it's tough to be a bear in this market as you know. year to date performance is down
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28%, three years down 44%. >> it's tough, are there not any opportunities? you do think it's a market of stocks and there might be short opportunities that work? why this performance overall? >> we have had a lot of names that have blown up. big names. ibm we have been short. we have got 50 60 positions in our portfolio. my co-partner and when you're only winning two out of three out of ten times it makes it much more difficult than even when you have 50/50. we don't want to get too oversized in one specific name. ibm we felt pretty good about. we felt good about ddd.
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>> before we move on given what the fed did not do no taper. does that make you think it is going to be rough sledding for you ahead as a bear fund? >> i think that the liquidity and the qe has been beaten to death. i have done this since i was a kid. i have watched cnbc since i was a kid. we have gone up for five straight years in a row. we have had tremendous multiple expansion inside all of the indexes. i just don't see where we will get the extra oomph to continue this up and up and up. the davis sentiment, during midsummer it hit 70. we came all the way down to 50. we actually bought 10% cash bought in a lot of our shorts
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during that period in august. we have been laying a few out. a few more days up we will be back up to very high sentiment numbers. >> what's a fundamental bear case for this? >> so the earnings model index, which is what my partner created, we use it for our forensic long approach as well. it is a number one worst rated name within that entire index and we have about 1,000 stocks within that index. >> how long has it been number one? >> it just started appearing over the last quarter. >> let me ask you a question. the names blow up in people's face. does it scare you and probably halloween or so they will report earnings, this is one of those
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names. will you stay with it into that? apparently yes is the answer. it's got a pretty heavy negative borrow rate. the cheapest to borrow. it's very intriguing for us in the sense that they do have a lot of momentum. numbers to be looking at and really when you have two very successful short sell inging expectations are really high. >> there is not a catalyst.
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>> over the last quarter have been moving up a lot. when i was talking to john about this and he was pretty much that is not really the thing to me. in their filings they have said that they're going to stay at 70 days within their dso area. they are pulling for revenue that they may not necessarily have gotten. and a company that is in a huge growth phase shouldn't have to be doing that. >> brad thank you so much of the ranger equity bear fund. we should note you want to dune into "fast money" next monday. obviously you want to tune in
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everything day but definitely monday. >> don't look now. how should you play the stock? plus what's two feet tall goes by the name of jimmy and can do the robot? you see him there off to the side. we will go behind the making with jimmy. that's straight ahead. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box. ♪ ♪ all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. ♪ ♪ building animatronics is all about getting things to work together. the timing the actions, the reactions.
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>> microsoft holding its first investor meeting in two years. john was there. >> no update on the ceo search from microsoft today. they were trying to hit on social mobile big data and cloud. speaking of cloud, microsoft tried to make the point that they are making billions more from enterprise customers. >> shares of herbalife hitting an all time high per share. do the technicals of the stock set up in icahn's favor?
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herbalife says that the number of shares available have declined 21%. a major factor is icahn's stake. the stake didn't affect the flow. but once the ceo was put on the board, that reclassified the stake, therefore shrinking the float. this could exasser bait a short squeeze. that could really cause a squeeze. >> i am surprised that we haven't seen it come higher. i would be concerned how secure it is. how long it. is the big fear is some sort of
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event where they buy some amount of the stock back. the available float gets so small that they start to buy in people. >> where is the borrow right now? >> it is available small but not for that long. i wouldn't feel comfortable. >> it's not crazy. it's just not available. >> at the same time you are looking at it from the outside and taking a look at how this is structurally setting up. and it seems like this is -- the bias is higher. >> you are getting towards levels as far as the price of the stock. i do think at a certain point maybe mr. akman will be correct but carl has all of the parts. you can't bet against him right now. >> all right. coming up next is the price right after all? where does it go from here?
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>> welcome back. here is a recap of tonight's executive edge.
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>> i think they had a freebie. they had telegraph papering. it was in the market. they could have started the plo sess. it wouldn't have cost a thing. it was in the market. and to me they blew it. >> a jump a jump to 309,000 from an awkwardly revised 294,000. >> existing home sales up 1.7% month to month. that's a big surprise to the upside. >> thanks in part to the affordable care act, also known as obama care the cost of health care is now growing at the slowest rate in 50 years. employer based health care costs are growing at about 1/3 the rate of a decade ago. >> i think our position is very
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clear. the new law is a train wreck. it's going to raise costs. it' destroying american lives and it must go. >> i think the chairman is clear about it. he has got to keep us on the right track. >> let's talk about trading along with the political winds. the stocks are down 3% today. >> the republican is going to attach any type of debt ceiling talks to defunding obama care. unh is talking about the health exchanges not being rolled out at times. that is why we saw that down 3%.
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>> three day rule? >> i would probably wait for the 30 day rule. that's going to be a little scary. this is just trading lower on the thought. this was a chance for the fed to begin to take a difficult pro process and get it going. >> the name is priceline continuing to light up the twit er er. >> the fundn'tals might actually bear it out. this is is a company that ten
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years ago. those kinds of growth rates justify higher than market multiples which is what the stock carries. >> an assistant capable of doing your laundry and washing your car, your name is jimmy. >> i paid a lot less.
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>> how do the biggest tech companies identify trends and come up with the next big thing? we have intel's futurist. he is here to give us a glimpse into the future. he has brought along a friend that is part of that future. his name is jimmy. he is just a shell of what he will be in the future. >> this is just the exo skeleton. plus the 3d design files are open sourced. we're asking people what does your 21st century robot look
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like? >> this is printed? >> it is printed on a home 3d printer. the whole thing. >> i don't think most people realize how close we are to having one of these in the house. what's the time line where we could buy one. >> and what would it be able to do? >> right now we're announcing the project. we're asking everybody that question, what do you want it to do. we are getting everybody to have this row mot maker. the idea is come may 24 the
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. >> i do a lot of work with robotics and health care. so imagine instead of having a smart phone to have somebody take their medication imagine jimmy walking up and saying be sure to take your diabetes medication. >> could have have your medication? >> you could design him a little backpack so he could actually have it. >> jimmy will be walking and talking. when does he start mouthing off? >> if you build that out, he will do it. >> his robot would have the worst language ever. they were scary. everybody
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everybody. >> we are showing them the world. >> it can literally be a friend. >> print out a friend. >> versus like a roomba that can clean your floor. >> a roomba is there to clean your floor. jimmy is designed to be interactive with you and with other robots and other devices. >> brian -- hi brinean. how's jimmy doing. >> we have the same hair. >> will jimmy ever move the needle for intel? is this a profitable enterprise? >> i think it's really we are thinking about things like the
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internet. you heard us announce our core processor. focused very specifically on that. we would think what can you do with that? >> brian, i hope you come back again. intel's future. come right back. stay tuned. you really love, what would you do?" ♪ ♪ [ woman ] i'd be a writer. [ man ] i'd be a baker. [ woman ] i wanna be a pie maker. [ man ] i wanna be a pilot. [ woman ] i'd be an architect. what if i told you someone could pay you and what if that person were you? ♪ ♪ when you think about it, isn't that what retirement should be, paying ourselves to do what we love? ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] staying warm and dry has never been our priority. our priority is, was
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thank you orville and wilbur... ...amelia... neil and buzz: for teaching us that you can't create the future... by clinging to the past. and with that: you're history. instead of looking behind... delta is looking beyond. 80 thousand of us investing billions... in everything from the best experiences below... to the finest comforts above. we're not simply saluting history... we're making it. ♪ ♪ ♪ unh ♪ ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] you can choose to blend in. ♪ ♪ or you can choose to blend out. the all-new 2014 lexus is. it's your move.
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>> chips are down. not so fast. does it have more to do. "mad money kwds is next. >> time now for the final trade. >> i like puts to insure your portfolio here. >> rates are going higher. >> las vegas, the casino names have definitely broken out. >> karen? >> if you want to stay at this party, you have got to buy some protection. >> that ghost machine? is that on again. >> was jimmy in that thing? >> no photographics either. >> huntsman.
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all right. thanks so much for watching. see you tomorrow. don't go anywhere. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. my job is not to just entertain you but i'm trying to entertain yowl. so call me. why the heck is everyone so political? why do i have to hear all today what a buffoon ben bernanke was to not cut back
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