tv Closing Bell CNBC September 26, 2013 3:00pm-4:01pm EDT
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we're really disrupting this space across all those services. >> we checked in with a frequent dog vacay customer. she says she loves getting videos of her pets when she's away. we also talked to a certified trainer/dog vacay host who left his job at goldman sachs to make dog sitting and dog training a full time job. they really love this. it seems to be working. we don't have any revenue numbers. it seems to be going well. >> thank you so much, julia boorstin. thank you so much for watching "street signs" as well, everybody. >> "closing bell" is next. hi, everybody. good afternoon. welcome to the "closing bell." we enter the final stretch of the day. i'm maria bartiromo coming to you today from the clinton global initiative in new york city where in a while we'll have my interview with former president clinton. scotty? >> we look forward to that interview. scott wapner in today for bill griffeth. on today's show, the stock market is trying to break its longest losing streak of the
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year. so will today make it six in a row in the red for the dow and s&p? maria, we only have two days left. two trading sessions left in this quarter. a little bit of work to do today. hanging on to a slight gain. nike, verizon, visa leading the charge. keeping the dow above water today. >> spoke to a few money managers early. they said, look, we think the u.s. market is fully valued at this level. what are the alternatives? we continue looking at the u.s. as the best house in a tough neighborhood. that's why we're seeing this market continue to streak higher even if we are seeing fractional losses today. my interview coming up with former president bill clinton. he t tells me how he would hand the debt ceiling with republicans. would he negotiate? what to give on. what about how the president has handled syria. bill clinton giving me frank answers on that and a lot more coming up on "closing bell." >> i bet he did give you frank answers, maria. so we can't wait to hear from the former president. jamie dimon goes to washington
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again. this time to the justice department. did he bring his checkbook? is $11 billion really the number for jpm to make its legal problems go away, maria? >> yeah. tough numbers there. i'm hearing so many numbers on this. they're just higher and higher. so we'll see about that. in the markets meanwhile right now, take a look at where we stand with about an hour to go before the trading day ends. the dow jones industrial average showing a gain of about 23 points here. bouncing off of the lows as you can see at 50,296. nasdaq, once again technology seems to be the leadership sector on the upside. nasdaq composite, double digit move up 19 points. half a percent. 3779. standard & poors 500 index looks like this. up just about 1 1/2. fractional move there. a lot of people taking to the sidelines as we watch the end of the quarter. of course, we'll probably see positioning as we begin the new quarter and anticipation over earnings, scott. >> certainly will. stocks making a nice comeback today after that five day losing
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streak. bob pisani, what's behind this little bit of a move? i hate to call it a rally up 24 points or so. >> good news and bad news. put up the screen. full screen. the good news here, we're up. the bad news, it could change on a dime. there's an awful lot of political risk that's out there. for the first day in six days rates are up also for the first day in five. the two negatives i keep pounding on all day is the political risk in washington and very high complacency out there. there's a lot of people who are long the market. there are very few people who are short the market. there's very few people buying protection out there. the market has been trained not to seek any protection or not to short because it doesn't do anything. it just creates a drag. people haven't made any money doing that all year. everybody says heck with it. i think that's a little shortsighted right now. something eventually could easily go wrong. there's the dow. see that drop in the middle ooft day. representative boehner, speaker of the house, came out and said we may not pass a clean spending bill in the near future. that caused the market to kind of drip in the middle of the day.
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good news the ipo market is still strong. record secondary offerings in the month of september. take a look at some of these ipos today. viv vivinint. 28% move up. biotech industry, cloud computing, biotech, yesterday foundation medicine, cancer diagnostics company, they went public. $18. look there. $35. the price has doubled in a day and a half of trading. maria and scott, i think we do need bill clinton here to negotiate some kind of deal in washington. >> we need something, bob. >> bring him back. we're tired of watching all that. >> look, let's not forget, bill clinton managed to produce four, you know, balanced budgets. four budgets as well as welfare reform. he certainly knows how to bring two sides together. we got into that in our conversation. we'll see, bob. thanks for that. let's go to our closing bell exchange. take a look at markets and allocating capital.
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heather huks from sun america funds. ron mullenkpamp who manages the mullencamp fund. jim lowell and our own rick santelli. ron mullencamp, let me quibegin with you. you're putting money in a market that's 15, 16 times earnings. what's your take on the value? >> we think the market in general is fairly vamed. we are finding individual companies we like at prices we like. we're fairly heavily invested here. >> still feeling values. interesting. scott, sorry. >> heather hughes is sitting with us here at the new york stock exchange. why has this market been unable to do anything since the no taper day? had one day, we gave it all back and then some. then we've sort of -- today is basically a treading water day after five down ones in a row. >> scott, you're right. it seems like there's still a lot of uncertainty looming. there are few key catalysts investors are watching going into year end. markets are flat today.
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but we've had quite a strong year so far. most believe that a deal will be reached in washington regarding the debt ceiling and budget talks. but i think the threat of a miscalculation of such should not be ignored. >> maria? >> yep. i mean, you're looking at a market that is waiting on earnings, jim lowell. tell me about that. what's your expectation for third quarter earnings? we're going to get those numbers beginning next week and the following week when things really pick u. is this market priced for -- or do you think the earnings will surprise? >> i think the earnings could very well surprise. i do suspect we'll see some sort of slowdown. the reality, as bob pisani pointed out, policy risk is a big overhang. look back to the last time the government was shout down. it actually was net positive for the market, significantly so. just a handful of weeks after it reopened. the reality is, we pay a lot less attention to the headlines about political goings on and far more attention to the fundamentals.
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in this market, look, why buy an index fund which enables you to only buy the market at its peak? we are big believers in active managers who now how to ferret out opportunities in peaks and valleys. we're very confident that those managers will be able to do their job well going forward. >> haven't the active managers underperformed, though? in a world where etfs have, you know, and passive management have sort of taken front and center, are the active managers keeping up here, jim? >> we're up 25% this year. >> even if you give john boeingle the due that 80% of active mcs underperform the market throughout their career, that number has never been proven. it's basically common wisdom. that leaves over 1,300 managers whose career track records are better than the average market and better than benchmark and peer groups. the key is to know how to find those managers and step up and invest in them and that's certainly what we do. >> rick santelli, correct me if i'm wrong. it feels like the last few days
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we've been in a really small range. really tight range on the 10-year yield. what do you think moves fixed income in the days ahead? is it more d.c. or is it going to be earnings ultimately? what plays the catalyst there? >> you know, i think that the notion of less with regard to things like the fed is going to continue. consider that for the latest week, we've had a little over 2.5 billion outflows in bond funds. 34 billion in the money markets. this dynamic is still hot. if you look at a 5-year note which looks like it's going to break its streak of four down yields in a row, the 10s as well because they're higher in yield, it all started on wednesday with the fed day. but the 5-year was so well purchased because so many were short that the next day its yield was a bit higher. but it's been moving down ever since. maria, i wish i was with you with bill clinton. boy, we got to really put a face on history. do you think barack obama would have worked more with congress
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if he lost both houses in 2010? because that's what happened to bill clinton in '94. he might have gotten a lot done, but he had a bumpy road with health care. when he lost both houses, all of the sudden he seemed to triangulate more towards moderation. >> we certainly lack leadership there, yeah, definitely. with regards to the bond outflows, that trend continues even though corporate bonds caught somewhat of a bid as you stated when the fed decided on no tapering. you look at cause and effect. i can't imagine that there would not be some sort of negative effect in the future if you're suppressing rates for a prolonged period of time. >> maria, going to make a point? >> ron, we were just talking about active managers. did you say you were up 20% plus? >> yes. but the biggest -- >> tell us about it. >> well, i want to make a different point. the biggest thing that happened this summer in my opinion was when the 10-year interest rates went from 1.6 to 2.6. initially the market took
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that -- took it down. what often happens when rates go up. i think interest rates went about two-thirds of the way back to where they should be. over a period of a couple months the market absorbed that. we had a great chance a week ago for the fed to step -- to take a first step at stepping out. they not only had their finger on the scale, they've had their whole arm on the scale. investors will not feel confident about investing until they see the fed working its way out of that so they can invest in the market and not in what the politics are doing. >> ron, real quick. if you said you were up 20% this year, what's in your portfolio. >> we're up 25%. >> 25%. what's in your portfolio? >> we own good companies at cheap prices. a return on equity averaging 18% and a pe of 13%. a fair amount of big banks including jpmorgan and city fwr group. a fair amount of biotech. it's pick and choose. what was interesting about the last quarter was the companies
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that had good earnings, the stocks did well. companies that had bad earnings, the stocks did poorly. that's what we like to see in a market that is driven somewhat by companies and earnings so much in the market the last five years has been driven by the politics and the fed. the fed is trying to lick a problem it can't lick which is employment. that remains the problem. they literally shifted their focus from -- the fed as a dual mandate. keep inflation under control and get people employ. people are not being employed because employers are being squeezed -- >> yet employment should come from the private sector, you would think. not the fed and artificially low rates. >> that's the fed blames -- >> now we're open to a place i don't think we have time to go. we'll talk to all of you again soon. maria -- >> i will say this, scott. biotech. how hot is biotech? ron mulenkamp is in there.
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on fire. one of the growth areas of the economy, no doubt. we have about 49 minutes to go before we close it up on the street. dow holding on to a gain of 29 points. where's the s&p 500? barely positive as well. what is this market telling us? if the blackberry offer from fairfax is $9 a share and the stock is trading below $8 right now? we will get to the bottom of that on the struggling smartphone maker's moves. find out what the future may hold there. ahead later on in the program, don't miss my interview with bill clinton here at the: listen global initiative. wait till you hear his take on what's happening in washington in the face of a potential shutdown just a few days away. that and a lot more coming back on "closing bell." [ bagpipes and drums playing over ] [ music transitions to rock ]
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stocks are on track to snap that five day losing streak. kayla tausche breaks down the stocks leading the move today. kayla? >> yahoo! is the stock the street has been watching today. up nearly 5% on reports that ail alibaba -- you can see it right now. up about 3.5%. yahoo! is a mover on heavy volume intraday.
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other widely traded stocks, bank of america, cisco, ge and intel. most of those to the downside. bed, bath & beyond earnings beat for the second quarter. stronger sales at all comparable stores. revenue beat just slightly. enough to send the shares up more than 4%. despite outlook falling short. ebay up sharply. up 4% plus after announcing a plan to buy braintree. paying about $800 million. ebay plans to integrate braintree with paypal. take a look at the s&p biggest laggard today, down nearly 9% after the company said it will look to wind down a partnership with blackberry as its future remains unclear. blackberry is jabil's second biggest comfortable. blackberry roughly flat throughout the day, down now about 1%. meanwhile, blackberry has been for a long time been a
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source of national pride for canada. earlier today i sat down with the prime minister of canada. prime minister stephen harper as they are looking for new funds and investors in canada. i asked him about investing in canada. by also asked him his thoughts on what might happen with the company. >> in terms of any acquisition, the government is not involved in the acquisition process unless it's a certain level of acquisition that's done as a foreign acquisition. in that case the government would have to review the decision to ensure that it's within our national interest. so that reason obviously i'm not going to comment on any potential partners. >> this doesn't fall into that category? >> it doesn't appear. as i say, it is an evolving situation. if it were a foreign takeover, the government would obviously have to examine it. >> so there's a chance you will be reviewing it? >> if -- if it's for an acquisition above a certain
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dollar figure the government would review it obviously on broad grounds. but also -- also all decisions in the technology space would be reviewed on national security grounds. sfwl so the canadian government may now review a blackberry deal that involves a non-canadian company. this on the heels of the canadian firm fairfax making the bid for blackberry. given the stock performance one wonders if this all may be a moot point long term for the company. joins us is ben par from c-net and john spalizani. ben, you're doubtful this deal will even happen. why are you skeptical here? the ceo of fairfax seemed pretty confident about it. >> the thing about it, he's not putting up all the money for the $4.7 billion deal. he's just putting in the fairfax stake, about 10%. he has to go raise a lot of equity money. then he's got to get loans in the range of, like, $3 billion
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from the banks in order to complete this deal. the deal just gets worse by the day. i don't see where he's going to get this money. because it's just not a good deal. >> john, does this deal happen? i mean, we have some great points from ben, right? they have to do due diligence. they have to try and raise the money. at the end of the day some of the people i'm talking to, you know, are of the opinion that he's looking for somebody else to really come in here. that he doesn't really want this thing despite the fact that he says he does. >> well, i think one thing that's obviously going to be a black eye for canada if blackberry does go down. it's funny the prime minister was saying they might put a little question into its foreign ownership. at this point i think basically the way the valuation works, the patents are worth $2 billion to 3 billion tlrs. they have $2 billion in cash. stock is trading below -- it puts us on par. in terms of who you're up against, byron trot, carlyle,
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blackstone, pa rel la wineburg. they're all looking at it as well as the co-founder of the company. so i would not bet against all those parties on that side. >> isn't the market -- >> and the canadian government. i don't think the financing is going to be a big problem at this point. just because we look at rates. if you want to play, let's say, libor plus -- >> it's not about the rates. >> nokia is at $25 billion. >> what are the fundamentals of the company? let's talk about that. the fundamentals -- >> i don't think we're debating the fundament aals of the compa. valuation is there to get the cash. i also don't think you want to bet against the canadian government. byron trot, some of the best value investors are looking at the company. going back to nokia. nokia, nobody thought -- nobody thought microsoft was going to
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buy out nokia. the stock was trading at $3. now it's $6. valuation is $25 billion. motorola bought -- was bought by google at $12.5 billion. we're talking about -- >> let's step back for a moment and think about this. >> the financing is not going to be a problem. >> i completely disagree. >> is it the same comparison? >> it's absolutely not. >> why do you disagree? >> it's not. nokia as a business and motorola's business were far better in terms of their -- in terms of both, like, the patent portfolio and in terms of the actual business itself. if you're talking about the actual value of the blackberry business, there's almost no value in it. >> people are carrying around blackberries and iphones. brand loyalty is off the charts. >> the brand loyalty is eroding by the second. the deal gets worse by the day. >> why he didn't put in his resignation at that time i don't know. >> john? john? >> yes. >> how can you make an argument that there's such incredible
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brand loyalty around blackberry when, as ben said, their market share is falling apart? >> thank you. >> where's the loyalty? >> the market share of blackberry right now is about the market share of nokia. nobody ya nokia is valued at $25 billion. i see people carrying around blackberries and iphones waiting for something better. they rolled out -- thorsten hines had ceo hubris where he thought he knew best what the blackberry person wanted. he did not. >> the trends are completely different. the blackberry -- >> should 6,000 patents be worthless? i don't think so. >> the windows phone market share has actually been going up. the blackberry market share has just been going down. there's no doubt that the direction continues to go down. you cannot compare it. it's apples and oranges. >> we're talking about will they get the financing. that's what we're talking about. >> but they get the financing based on whether or not the business is strong enough to
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be -- will they actually be helped by going private or something else. i think what happens is people are going to go through the due diligence. you're going to see it goes worse and worse. >> we have a six-week go shop period. there's a good possibility they might go private. that's the whole idea. >> the stock is trading below $8. >> why is the stock trading below the offer price? what's your take on this? >> my take is just that -- >> what is the market telling us? it's trading below 8. the deal is for 9. why? >> because the market is saying that they have doubts that this deal will go through. and they have doubts that blackberry as a business will survive. whether or not it's private or public. i don't think it has much of a shot either way. its best bet -- >> the fact they might squash the deal. i think that's the reason why. also the fact that, again, you know, we're in a six-week go shop period. we don't know exactly what's going to happen, how much cash they're going to burn through during that period. . the faster a deal comes, the
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faster thorsten resigns, the better it's going to be for blackberry. >> wow. obviously you're bearish on the ceo there. guys, thank you very much. maria, we have about 35 minutes to go before we close it up here on the street on this thursday. the dow is holding on to a gain, trying to break that five-day losing streak. looks at this point as though it's going to do just that. bileon eyre investor carl icahn is set to meet with apple ceo tim cook on monday. the dinner we've been waiting for. cook will get firsthand what the activist investor wants from apple. up next, find out if you should take a bite out of apple ahead of what could be a market moving meeting. we will bring it to you. check out this head shaking video of a woman swiping a baseball from a little girl who clearly had her hands on it first. if you think that's outrageous, you haven't heard anything yet. we've got somebody here who says it's high time. the bottom 99% of americans start giving back to the top 1%. he defends that position later. we'll hear him out. how is that?
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welcome back. billionaire investor carl icahn will finally get his sit-down with apple ceo tim cook. david faber broke the details. >> it may not be a dinner we famously heard about this potential for a meeting back in august when mr. icahn tweeted about his position, a large one in apple. maybe above $2 billion in value. and his plans to get together with tim cook in september. well, monday is the 30th. they're going to get it in just
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under the wire. given mr. icahn's schedule, he tends to like to do things later. works late into the night. he's a night owl. mr. cook, i'm told, prefers getting a lot done in the morning. maybe it won't be a late night dinner. perhaps a late day meeting or maybe a late lunch. what it's going to be, the key, of course, is going to be what icahn talks to mr. cook about. specifically, can you, will you consider increasing the buyback. this for a company that in april told us it would return $100 billion to share olders by the end of 2015. both through an increased repurchase of $60 billion and through dividends as well which were increased back in april. the question is, for a company that could generate as much as -- let's say at least $50 billion from free cash flow next year, that would be down, if you assume $50 billion, what are they going to do with the mounting cash? carl icahn, $2 billion is an awful lot of money.
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he's got about 22 at his d disposal. doesn't even make him a top ten shareholder. but he has a great deal of influence. we know that. we've seen it in action. he's up 30% this year. many investors do follow his lead. and he can bring a powerful argument to bear. it will be an important meeting worth watching and waiting to hear what happens. back to you, maria. >> so who picks up the check on that one, david? >> my guess is mr. cook picks up the check for his large shareholder. >> thank you. should you follow carl icahn into apple. let's talk numbers, check out the fundament ams on the technicals. on the stock, richard ross, global technical strategist. on the fundamental side of the story, ron dochin. good to see you, gentlemen. thanks for joining us. rich, let's look at the charts. what does it tell you? walk us through apple's chart and how does it look to you? >> i'll tell you, maria, when we're talking about tech stocks right now there's a very curious
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bifurcation in the market. we have a handful of momentum driven names trading at str stratospheric valuations as we steam towards the month of october. that's a recipe for disaster. then we have apple. they're printing more cash than the federal reserve. 30% off an all time high. 12 times earnings. bullish chart to boot. let me walk you through it. krou can see that textbook double bottom earlier this year within the context of a nine month base of support. back in august we break above the 150 day moving average. we get a bullish golden cross of the 50 over the 150. now we run into resistance at 510. i love the way we hold that 150 on the pullback and reassert ourself to the upside. the stock takes that five, ten, ultimately trades 630. you want to be a buyer right here. >> wow. ron, what about the fundamental part of the story? what are you seeing? >> yeah. i think the fundamentals do look favorable for apple. it is a value stock as was mentioned before. it does trade at a preet yum to the market.
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it does give you a total shareholder return yield of around 6%. that's the tenth highest in the marketplace today. that's adding dividends plus the buybacks. but the problem that we have with the stock is that on our growth metrics, it's really slipping. and it is considered a growth stock in the marketplace. 4% weighting in the s&p 500 growth index. if it continues on its current trajectory in terms of operating margins and a slowdown in roe growth, we would expect more growth managers to come out of the stock. a little upside here. not as much as it could potentially do had it been more attractive to growth managers. >> you know, i did not realize you saw this stock as a value stock, ron. what's the pe on this stock? >> the pe on a forward basis is trading around 12. the market is around 14. so it's a two, you know, basically multiple point discount on the market.
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sfwl i love that. rich, final word. >> keep in mind, momentum is a fickle mistress. we're talking about 12 times earnings for the premiere company in technology. people are bidding up, as i said, unproven, untested business models. trading at triple digit pes with triple digit year to date returns. that's not where you want to be chasing going into a month which has played host to major market declines in '29, '87, 89, '08. the list goes on. recipe for disaster in the high fliers. stick with apple. >> scott, i love this story. thanks very much. 12 times earnings. ron, did you want to make one more point? >> yeah. i would just say that growth managers are really not concerned with valuation. they're more concerned on the growth side of things. so if revenues don't pick up, there are those social media companies that they'll pretty much migrate to. i do believe that the upside is there. it's just more limited. >> thank you, yes megentlemen. about 30 minutes to go. only two trading days left in
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the quarter following today. right now we are looking as though we'll snap that losing streak for the major averages as the dow is holding on to that 27-point gain. we'll take a break. former president clinton says republicans are playing with fire when it comes to the fight over the debt ceiling. >> do it as a strategy to actually stop from paying america's bills is disastrous. >> coming up, we'll explain why this battle could do significant harm to the economy. plus, find out if he thinks president obama is taking the right steps in dealing with syria and iran. all ahead in my one on one with president clinton coming your way. then, it took four years and an exclusive cnbc survey shows retail investors are finally starting to believe in this market. is that a sign of a market top or new leg to the rally? we'll check it out next. stay with us. vo: two years of grad school. 20 years with the company.
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thousands of presentations. and one hard earned partnership. it took a lot of work to get this far. so now i'm supposed to take a back seat when it comes to my investments? there's zero chance of that happening. avo: when you work with a schwab financial consultant, you'll get the guidance you need with the control you want. talk to us today.
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jones new york initiated a sales process and auction. it was said to be close to being acquired by a private equity firm. roiters reporting kkr who participated in the bidding dropped out. they were ought to be the private equity firm with the deepest pockets to potentially acquire jones. the stock down about 4.5%, ma rea and scott, on news that kkr dropped out of the bidding. back to you. >> thanks very much. when the dow broke 15,000 back inway, a gallup poll reported that nearly half of americans, 52%, actually owned any stocks outright or as part of a mutual fund or retirement account. the rising stock market seems to be making believers of average investors as steve liesman has the data to prove it. steve? >> this is fascinating. we've been doing this all american survey for about six years. and much of that time, the market has been on the rise. but not investor optimism. come over here. i want to show you this. let's take a look at the green line.
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the green line, pretty decent level when we started this early. '08, '09 it ticks down. then it's been rising inexora y inexorably. look at the blue line. anybody with money in the market, you can see here it's been below 50%, first of all. as the market has risen, up until about here which we're going to talk about in a second, investor optimism has stayed very, very low. finally, right here, maria. it looks like we have some believers in this market rise. what's it taken? it's taken headlines saying dow at all time high. one after another. finally, we have a situation where the market is rising and so is investor optimism. what we just put on there, this light blue line, are those investors with more in the market, more than $50,000 in the market. you can see that their level of optimism, that percent who are saying that now is a good time to invest, is as high as it's been since here. we've been here before. for all investors. but you can see now we've had
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one, two, three, four rises in a row which suggests that maybe this time, with all of these higher numbers we've had, average investors are getting involved or interested in this market. let's take a look at one other thing. we asked people, how is your portfolio doing? maybe the way ed koch would ask it compared to a year ago. about 46% say it's better. a look by income. those with $100,000 or more, folks at home, those guys are rich according to most americans here. how about by party? democrats, republicans, okay. independents and tea parties doing not as well as the average. finally, if your home price is going up you're more likely to say your portfolio has done well and your wage has gone up. this is something we need to track to see if there's staying power at all to this belief in it being a good time to invest and tracking the negatives as well. it'll be interesting to see if the market at these levels continues to attract the interest of average investors. more from our all american survey in -- we have online on cnbc.com. you can read the entire poll
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including information about health care, the affordable care act as well as views on the economy. maria? >> steve, really good stuff. thank you so much. steve liesman. often when the retail investor believes in the market, once again, and they come rushing in, some people see that as a sign of the top. is this the case this time? former investment banker and cnbc contributor carol roth. david sourby from loomis sales joining us. i have a problem with the whole idea that just because the individual investor is in the market that means it's at top. individuals are a lot smarter and armed with information than they ever have been. do you think it's a top? >> i don't think it's a top. >> yeah? >> if this is -- if this is dave's question, if the retail investor is paying a pe of 50 times earnings as we saw in 1999, are you getting stock tips from your barber or bartender, then it's a market top. i think there's still a healthy
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amount of skepticism left in stocks post 2008. and given that the average price to earnings ratio is 15.5, not 50, and companies are growing their dividends between 13% and 15%, i think there's more legs to run in this market. yes, we'll get the 10% correction. we do every year. the market still has legs. >> one of the reasons i'm dressed all in black today is because i am in mourning for this bull market. i really do believe this is one of the final nails in the coffin. it's not just because your taxi driver is giving you that tip. it's because of what the fed is doing. ben bernanke by pursuing roe, return on his ego, instead of starting that tapering like the market was expecting and the economy needed, this window to shift from being on the juice and the printing to fundamentals is slowly closing. it's not just a consumer sentiment. it's what's going on in the broader market. we don't have companies who are
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trading on fundamentfundamental. we don't have top line revenue growth. we don't have any catalysts for this to continue in the future. that's the point of my concern. >> david -- >> i mean, what's the alternative, carol? >> what's the alternative is that we start tapering -- >> yeah. to u.s. equities. what's the alternative to u.s. equities? >> there is no alternative to u.s. equity in the broader market right now, maria. again, this is something that's going to take a little while to play out. maybe over three or six months. but over time, eventually, things are going to shift. i think that we have a very small window of opportunity to make the shift. if we get companies to start pursuing capital investments that's going to take a little while to cycle through. don't think that's going to be an easy transition. we have to start that now while we have the opportunity instead of waiting until it's too late. >> david, what about the issue of valuation? you've had a couple of really smart investors over the last week raise the issue of whether
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stocks are fully valued, fairly valued or whatever, whether it's carl icahn who told maria that on this very show. buffett and others who are saying stocks aren't cheap anymore. hard to find value. >> they're not march 2009 cheap, certainly. but, still, at a pe of 15.5, it suggests that over the next five years, stocks can still generate an 8% to 9% rate of return. where else are you going to get that? second, on another valuation measure, one that i favor, free cash flow yield and the amount of cash that companies are generating. 4.5% to 5% free cash flow yields. what does that mean relative to a 2.65% yield on a 10-year u.s. treasury? stocks are attractive both on an earnings basis, on a cash flow basis, on an enterprise value basis. the average company is generating a 16.5% return on equity. there's much better capital discipline today and the use of cash i'm seeing from companies
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than the silly acquisitions in the market bubble i saw in 1999. i disagree. i think companies are in fundamentally better shape today. i do think the fed is going to overdo it. that's probably not a two or three year event. it's not a 2013-2014 event. >> even with the 15 times multiple, you have to look at the quality and the sustainability of that multiple. look at the jobless claims that just came in. there's no one left to lay off here. where are they going to continue to get that kind of a multiple when we don't have the growth, when they're not making the capital investments? there's only so much they can cut. there are only so many shares that they can buy back. they need to grow the top lines of these companies. otherwise that kind of a multiple just isn't sustainable in the future. >> companies are generating 4% to 5% to 6% revenue growth. i'm in michigan. i'm a little territorial here. we've seen an absolute manufacturing rebirth if not
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renaissance take place among manufacturing companies in the midwest and in michigan in particular. i think that's just a microcosm for what we're seeing for corporate usa and what it's been able to do in the last two or three years. >> gdp growth is supposed to be 1.4% in the third quarter. >> guys? we, unfortunately, are going to have to make those the last words. >> always a good discussion. >> we appreciate it. >> david and carol, thank you very much. we have about 15 minutes to go. maria, you still have nike, the newest dow number, at least one of the newest dow members leading the dow today. going to report earnings after the bell. that stock is the best performer along with disney, verizon and visa. up next, jpmorgan chief jamie dimon making a visit to the justice department today. and he wasn't there looking for legal advice. he may have had his checkbook in hand. we'll tell you what he was doing there, next. after the bell, join us. i'll talk to former president bill clinton about the potential for a government shutdown and its economic impact. he knows about that better than
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jc penny shares rallying back from a nearly 13 year low today after i first reported earlier that ceo mike allman here in new york yesterday told a group of investors the company will not need to raise capital any time soon. the retailer also putting out a statement earlier today saying it's pleased with the progress of its turnaround. you know, maria, there have been so many questions over the last 24 hours about the state of this company's finances. a report last evening about whether they'd have to raise more money. again, i'm told from somebody who was in the room yesterday with mike ullman. >> yes. you have to wonder when jc penney management is going to come out and sort of squash some of this rumor mongering going on. and what that means.
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at this point, investors probably need to hear from management. >> you know, they do. i mean, the company put out the statement. was hoping to speak with mike ullman today. unfortunately that didn't happen. they put out a short statement responding to a couple of questions which i had asked of jc penney this morning. that was kind of all we got. we'll see if he wants to talk. he knows where he can talk. you know? >> all right. yep. >> ten minutes to go, maria. dow -- actually, we got a nice little move here. up 43 on the dow. >> we're going to take a short break. then we will -- looks like if we hold this, break the losing streak. we are in the final minutes of trading. we'll get you the closing numbers right after this. back in a moment. gs to work tog. gs to work tog. the timing, the actions, the reactions. everything has to synch up. my expenses are no different. receiptmatch on the business gold rewards card synchronizes your business expenses.
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we're back on the floor of the exchange. ten minutes to go before the bell rings. dow and s&p looking to break their five-day losing streak. joining us now is larry cantor from barclays. dan baird from palisade capital management. barclays, your guy over there raised the price target last week on the s&p thinking this is going to be good. the fed is not going to taper. what's wrong with the market? why has the market done virtually nothing since then? except for one day?
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one we reaction, that's it. >> we had a one day rally. it seems everyone is now focused on the budget negotiations. it's easy to bet. i think we've been through this five times now. it's going to get worse before it gets better. but it's hard to bet on a blowup. consequences would be pretty severe. they'll get through this. people get more worried -- >> i hear you saying buy any dip, then. >> i think so, yeah. i think what's happened with the fed is the focus is now going to be on growth. it's clear instead of watching the fed, we all have to watch the economy. >> yep. >> we think sort of not yet. but by the end of the year, probably you're going to see the economy pick up. the fed comes back in play. another leg down in the bond markets. and maybe even equities will take a hiccup. >> dan, how about the catalyst of earnings, right? earnings coming front and center real soon. >> you're in that sort of precertainings kabuki dance where you can really say anything you want about the direction of corporate businesses. that's going to create some near term volatility. what we're focusing on at
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palisade are companies that can grow. borgwarner on the auto parts side. on the aerospace side we like haiko. haiko raised outlook three times this year alone. which is why the stock has done so well this year. >> maria? >> do you really want to be a hero in this environment? we know we're about to see fighting happening in washington. another stalemate. we could actually see the government shut down. jack lew in the paper today saying this country runs out of money by october 17th. we know earnings will probably be o okay. revenues nowhere. should i just take my money and run? at this point since you have double digit gains in 2013? >> i don't think getting out has been a good strategy here, maria. of course, it depends on your time horizon. if you're a very short term player probably want to take something off the table. i'd say that right now, i think, you know, the u.s. stock market has performed amazingly well the last couple of years. i think you do need to see better growth to move up
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significantly from here. the other thing i would say, the u.s. massively outperformed other markets. now other markets like europe and asia are looking -- starting to look more attractive longer term relative to the u.s. because imbalance. >> larry, good to hear from you. dan, nice to see you as well. up next, back with the closing countdown. maria? >> right back with that. then it's a question on the minds of many americans. is russia -- is putin our friend? bill clinton has some pretty harsh words. even some advice for russia's president. don't miss it. we'll get into it later on "closing bell" when we bring you my interview with bill clinton. you're watching the "closing bell" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. who stand ready to seize them. in a time when the biggest risk is playing it safe, we believe outshining the competition tomorrow requires challenging your business inside and out today. at cognizant, our flexible, collaborative approach
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with the mobile trader app. from td ameritrade. all right. welcome back. we, of course, are ready for the closing countdown. want to highlight jc penney. it's certainly been the stock of the day. it's broken that big slide we saw yesterday. it's been the worst performer in the s&p this quarter down about 40%. some questions still lingering about the company's financial performance. at least for today, that stock rebounding by 2 2/3. we're going to break this five day losing streak. are we going to build on it or go right back the other way? >> i think we're going to build on it. mixed signals from washington. at the end of the day, the economy is getting better. >> earnings the story going forward? is that what you guys are going to be looking for once we get
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past the shenanigans in d.c.? >> big job numbers next friday. it's going to be all about earnings. >> allen valdez, thank you so much. "closing bell" continues in a moment. maria and, of course, her can't-miss interview with former president bill clinton. and it is 4:00 on wall street. do you know where your money is? welcome back to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo today coming to you from the clinton global initiative, new york city. stocks ending higher today, snapping a five day losing streak. a look at how we're finishing the day on wall street with money moving into equities. yet again the dow jones industrial average up 55 points. gaining momentum at the close, 15,328. volume not great. nasdaq up 26 points. 3787. s&p 500 as we rolled toward t
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