nike fantastic, i'm jim cramer and i will see you tomorrow. the president says i'm not going to negotiate. well, i'm sorry, but it just doesn't work that way. listen, the american people don't want the president's health care bill, and they don't want the government to shut down. >> all right. that's house speaker john boehner making it very clear president obama must negotiate with congress on raising the debt ceiling, and he is not giving up the battle against obama care. this as we edge ever closer to the october 1st deadline for a possible government shutdown. and that's not the only deadline looming over america tonight. october 1 is also the deadline for the obama care health insurance exchanges to go live. but the white house keeps finding more and more glitches and announcing more delays.

we have learned of two big new problems just today. those stories and much more coming up in "the kudlow report" beginning right now. >> good evening, everyone. i'm larry kudlow. this is "the kudlow report." we are live here at 7:00 p.m. eastern and 4:00 p.m. pacific. right now here is the top story. with the possibility of a government shutdown now just slightly more than four days away, republicans are speaking out today. take a listen to house leaders john boehner and eric cantor. >> on the debt limit, we're going to introduce a plan that ties important spending cuts and pro-growth reforms to a debt limit increase. >> for too long president obama and his democratic colleagues in the senate have chosen to ignore our looming debt crisis. and president obama's plan has been and is still more debt and no reform.

>> all right. cnbc's eamon javers joins us from washington, d.c. with the details. >> big day, but not much progress made toward an ultimate deal made in washington today. and it's starting to look like tempers are flaring on all sides of the aisle. starting with this war of words that we had between the president of the united states and the speaker of the house earlier today. both men digging in their heels, both saying they're not going to cave in. take a listen. >> no congress before this one has ever, ever in history been irresponsible enough to threaten default. to threaten an economic shutdown, to suggest america not pay its bills just to try to blackmail a president. >> the president says i'm not going to negotiate. well, i'm sorry, but it just

doesn't work that way. we're not going to ignore washington's spending problem, and we're not going to accept this new normal of a weak economy, a no new jobs and shrinking wages. >> now tempers also flaring between republicans on the senate floor late today. take a listen here to senator bob corker. he is frustrated with senator ted cruz of texas and senator mike lee of utah for delaying a vote. they thought they might be able to vote as early as tonight. that's not going to happen. and senator corker not so happy about it. take a listen. >> it's not the republican side that is asking to stall. we only have two republican senators that are wanting to push this off. so i don't want that to be mischaracterized. >> so at the end of the day today, we're not going to have any votes in the senate tonight. it looks like, larry, they're going to begin procedural votes on sending this bill back to the house tomorrow around lunch time. and then after that, the mechanical clock kicks in. but it's anybody's guess here where we're going to end up in

terms of a final deal that house republicans can sign on to and that president obama can sign on to in time to avert a government shutdown, larry. >> eamon, just a quickie. we're really not going get final results on this senate stuff. we're not going to get them until sunday or monday morning. >> that's right. >> we're going to go on for quite a while, are we not? >> that's right. they're going to begin procedural votes tomorrow, but the senate has an automatic clock ticker. so they won't be able to vote on final passage until well into the weekend. at that point it has to go back to the house. it's going to be early next week before we see any real resolution to this. so we're going to go right down to the wire once again on another one of these fiscal showdowns here in washington. >> all right. thanks, eamon javers, we appreciate the update. now let's talk about the continuing resolution and the dead ceiling. the cr comes first. let's turn to our special guests tonight, house members paul tonka and nick mulvaney, republican from south carolina. gentlemen, welcome.

mr. null vanney, it's good to see you again. i have a million things to ask you, but let me start with this. i'm going to assume that the senate takes out the funding of obama care, throws it back to the house as a clean bill. now, my question is this. if the house comes back with its own proposal, we'll get to the proposal in a minute, if they do, how can we avoid a shutdown next week? because all this takes time. >> it does, larry, although one of the things we're hearing today on the floor as we sort of hear the scuttlebutt is that the senate has every intention of voting tomorrow which is a little bit different than what eamon reported and then immediately leaving town, which i think is one of the absurd things we do up here when we try to politically posture. i do think there is enough time to get through this before monday. i'm a little optimistic that everybody knows the deadline. we also -- we bumped up against the deadline ever since i've been here. are we going to push the limit on it? probably, but are we able to get something done by monday night, i think so. >> all right. what i was angling at, i heard

today from a little birdie in the leaders' operation that there is a possible six-day, a possible six-day continuing resolution, which would give you all in the house some opportunity to put your new plan on the table and then go through the whole process again. just tell me. what a six-day cr work for you? and is it going to save us from a shutdown? >> you know, larry, that's one of those questions that if you really feel like you're making progress and the six days would be used to make a better deal, then maybe you should consider it. it's just we need six days because we haven't done our job and we sort of pushed up against this deadline and didn't get our work done. it's sort of hard to go back and tell people that we changed the rules again. >> well, that's okay. we're all late with our homework when we were kids. i get that. mr. paul tonko, welcome back. >> thank you. >> a late-breaking development. democratic senator joe manchin of west virginia has just literally in the last hour or so i think come out and endorsed a one-year delay in the individual

mandate for obama care. a one-year delay, which is something many republicans favor too. what is your response, paul tonko? is that where the democrats would compromise or not? >> i think the health care bill, the affordable care act, obama care is law. it was passed by both houses of congress. it met the presidential test when the president was up for reelection. the highest court in the land, the supreme court gave it thumbs-up as constitutional. and we ought not tinker with huge responsibilities here that is to make the government run, fund the government, keep the doors open and the lights on, and pay our bills. you know, working families understand that. they roll up their sleeves, they play by the rules, they work hard. they expect to taste success, and they pay their bills. we need to pay our bills. >> paul tonko, i agree about paying bills. later on in this show, we're going to talk about something called glitches, obama care glitches. there are so many obama care glitches, many of them

acknowledged by the white house or other people that this thing needs help. that's the point, mr. tonko. it needs help. the bill is not ready for prime time. you know it. i know it. mr. mulvaney knows it. the whole country knows it. >> larry, there is a time and place to do public policy debate, and it is not in efforts like this. these processes need to be done straightforwardly. we saw what happened the last time when we tinkered with it and didn't even make it happen. we just risked, gave a very huge message of risk out there of not getting business done. and we saw what the credit rating bore. it impacted the nation's credit rating. we ought not mess with the full faith and credit of this country to weaken our economy. let's pay our bills and move on and have the debate, but not tinker with it in the midst of what are really basic discussion, decisions that need to be made to run the government and pay our bills on time. >> mick mulvaney, i want to get to the debt ceiling stuff in a second. >> sure. >> do you think the house republicans can sign off on a

one-year delay in the individual mandate for obama care? you already got one democratic senator. so you only need, what do you need? four or five more to be in business. would you do that? might that be the republican position? >> larry, you know, we've talked about this before. i don't negotiate with you because you don't have a vote. but i think we're getting very close to finding that sweet spot. the real key here is where can you find that sweet spot in a compromise. i respectfully disagree with paul. we've been trying to have this debate about how to fix obama care or get rid of it for three years. so the fact that we're now bumping up against the spending limit, it is strange to be making the argument. if we can figure out a way to find that sweet spot to get changes to obama care, to get delays in obama care, i think folks might be surprised with what we can agree on. >> larry, look -- >> i thought for sure you would om out with something tonight on the show, mick. i'm so disappointed. >> name the conferrees who will be at that conference table to get a budget done where we can

cut in certain area, belt-tighten, reduce the deficit, invest where we must after we cut where we can. that's the way we should have done business. and now to bring this about in the 11th hour and hold up the process, you know what your viewers are about. they want to invest in a market that is strong. they don't want to have the economy weakened. we should not tinker with this economy in that way, risking the full faith and credit of this country is uncalled for and unacceptable. >> and i don't see any particular appetite, i mean, correct me if i am wrong, i don't see any appetite for not renewing the debt ceiling. i think the issue is what happens around it. i don't see any appetite for a shutdown on the continuing resolution either. >> then let's go forward with the straight votes. let's keep them clean and do the public debate after that. we should have done the budget by now. >> this bothers me, now. with regard to the debt ceiling, you want to tie. the speaker said today he wants to tie to it a series of economic growth measures like tax reform and regulatory reform and so forth, the keystone pipeline. okay. i'm all for free economic

growth, and that does help solve. but nobody talked about spending cuts today. on your side, and i want to note, as i'm sure you read "the wall street journal" editorial today, the spending caps are being violated. the house that sent the first cr over to the senate violated the spending caps by $19 billion. and now the senate democrats are going to violate those caps by another $70 billion. that is off the charts. if we're going to have an extension of the debt ceiling, whatever happened to the idea of spending cuts along with it? >> larry, you're absolutely right. part of the reason that we technically violated the caps deals with the timing between the fact a fiscal year starts in october 1 and the sequester year starts on the calendar which is way too far down in the weeds. but you're absolutely right. one of the things we discussed with our leadership today both publicly and privately is listen, we like the ideas of nick chicago growth, that's what we're all about. but we're a little concerned about the lack of concentration on spending cuts. for example, if you want to talk about how to get to a balanced budget in ten years, which is

what we've said we're for as a party, you have to look at reforming entitlements. and this first sort of draft on a debt ceiling discussion is a little bit thin. woefully thin on entitlement reform. so, again, we're still hashing it out on our side of the aisle. i think you're right. we do need to look at spending as well as economic growth. >> i think so. mr. tonko, go ahead. i give you the last word. >> i think the american families understand it. they want their government funded so that it can function and do the things that it's required to do. and they want us to pay our bills on time. i don't call my bank when my credit card payment is due and say hey, i want a convertible and i want a puppy. unless i get that, you don't get my bill. you don't pull these items out of the whim and say we're going to change the rules here. people have said don't clut their vote. get it done and pay your bills. >> another news organization, bloomberg did a poll. 61% of those polled, 61% reject a clean debt bill, and they want spending cuts to go with it,

even if that means that the debt court of appealing is violated. did you read that? 61%. they don't even care about default. that's how much they want spending cuts. right now, neither party is talking spending cuts. neither one. >> i think that we can sit at that table, get the budget done there is the fullest way to do it, the most effective way to do it when you're dealing with a full budget. you have the belt tightening that can be done. you cut where you can so you invest where you must and you reduce the deficit at the same time and grow the economy and create a climate that produces jobs. >> we will leave there it, gentlemen. thank you very, very much, house members paul tonko and mick mulvaney. >> thank you, larry. now, this breaking news. iran has apparently agreed to new negotiations on its push for nuclear weapons. the talks have tentatively been scheduled for geneva on october 15th and 16th. representatives of the five nations from the u.n. security council. of course that includes the united states. secretary of state kerry also just wrapped up a meeting with the iranian foreign minister.

kerry called that meeting, and i will quote, constructive, end quote. all right. we will see. who trusts iran? . any way, let's move on. the u.s. economy still just bumping along at a 2% pace. can't we do better than that? today's economic reports may be the drop in pending home sales. the third straight monthly decline. it raise as red flag. we're going to talk about the state of this anemic economy next up on "kudlow." and later, look who showed up at the justice department today that is jpmorgan ceo jamie dimon. what is he doing there? we'll have that story in just a few moments. and please don't forget, free market capitalism is the best path to prosperity. i think some spending cuts along with it are in order. i'm "kudlow" and we'll be just back. americans take care of business.

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welcome back to "the kudlow report." i'm mary thompson. we had several big economic reports out today. let's start with gdp. today we had the third and final reading on second quarter growth. the economy growing at 2.5%. no change from the previous reading. 305,000 people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time in the last week. that is the lowest total for

jobless claims in six years. and pending home sales falling 1.6% in august, the third straight monthly decline. that of course coincide was the big jump we've seen recently in interest rates. >> mary thompson, thanks very much. so we have to get used to this sub-par subnormal recovery. still the worst recovery in the whole post world war ii recovery. we have morgan stanley's managing director, our old friend vincent reinhart. also a former director of the federal reserve board division monetary affairs. also with us bill pulte. gentlemen, welcome. let me ask a couple of quickies on this housing. third straight monthly decline in pending home sales and the year on year rate is only now it's about 3%, down from 15%. new home sales also are showing some weakening. are we seeing a problem here with mortgage rates or whatever? >> mortgage rates backed up a percentage point. it is interest sensitive.

but houses are still affordable given all of the price declines we had seen. house willing be a contributor to growth. >> it will? >> but in some sense, slowing from a 14% or greater residential investment isn't necessarily such a bad thing if you're really talking about sustained economic. >> and in some cases a lot of people have said home prices have rebounded too fast. >> yeah. >> and they have to pull back a little bit. what is your take? >> you have seen in housing prices. at pulte we look at a number of factors. things are trading at 14, 15, 2015 multiples. and so it makes it tough to get deals done in this environment. but in terms of the housing market, we think that job confidence, economic confidence needs to come back. you can -- the mortgages obviously have -- interest rates have a big factor on it. but if you don't have the underlying factor of job confidence, buying a house is going to be a tough thing. and i don't think we're going see in the millions of housing start nice time soon. >> stay with it. jobless claims probably one of the best positive indicators way down to 300,000, the best since

2007 before the recession. >> and nobody is being fired. the firing rate is an all-time low. >> now, tell me why the hiring side of that has been so lackluster, which is, you know, cheap incomes, people working in low-cost industries with part-time jobs. it's like the only thing they're buying is replacement cars because they can't service them anymore. this bothers me a lot. >> it should. because unless you get job creation, you don't get sustained economic growth. part of it is uncertainty about government policies, uncertainty about health care going forward. and environment of uncertainty, we do not build up capital, both human capital and physical capital. we think that uncertainty about policies coming off some. >> where is this? where is this coming off? it ain't happening in washington. none of those big buildings. come on, tell me. >> let's take a time frame, a little longer than let's see, four days. >> all right, i'll give you time

frame. how about the rest of my life, will i ever see the fed tighten? we've got the queen of the doves, janet yellin is going to come in probably and run the fed. brilliant woman, but she is a dove. in my lifetime, that gives you plenty of running home. will there ever be fed tightening? >> they will not sell assets in your lifetime. >> right. >> they will not sell assets in i many lifetime. >> meaning bonds? >> bonds. they're going to keep a big balance sheet and hope that the nominal economy expands to shrink its relative size. they are going to have to raise rates, but that's probably going to be delayed. >> but not until -- >> 2015. and i could see it easily sliding to 2016. >> i was thinking like, 2015, hell, like 2100, that kind of thing. you know, you're a former fed big shot. so you're saying that essentially, that view is right. they are going to be dovish, and they are going to err on the accommodative side to coin a phrase. >> looking at last week, that would be my main conclusion. they set us up for tapering.

they paid the price of injecting that incertainty and then they didn't do it. why? because they're probably a little more worried about housing, a little more worried about the backup rates, and it's more yellin-led fed now. >> bill pulte, you're going to have easy money and cheap money and low interest rate money for as far as the eye can seattle. how does that impact your businesses, your deals and so forth? >> it helps out a lot. don't get me wrong, the housing market has definitely been helped by interest rates. i think you have seen that. you've seen that in the appreciation of large home builder stocks. again, until we get job economic confidence, we're not going to see it. >> you don't think -- guys who want to invest. you're trying to redevelop detroit. >> i am. >> to your great credit. >> it's a nonprofit, though. we're not making money. >> i want to make it tax-free, no capital gains or anything like that. jack kemp enterprise zone. doesn't it help some? >> certainly. >> that's the whole fed theory. i don't think it's really done it that much so far. we're still growing at this lousy 2% rate. >> there is absolutely no doubt about it. but in detroit we have a different problem, as you know.

we have 80,000 vacant structures. when you have abandoned homes, it's even tough to get mortgage financing. forget the interest rates if you can't get a mortgage to begin with which is the problem many cases in detroit. not a strong housing. >> what you telling your clients now about the washington shebang? are they all hot and bothered about the shutdowns and debt default and what not? >> i think everybody has been trained by politicians to expect something at the midnight hour. >> yeah. >> then the concern is what happens tuesday morning if something doesn't happen in the midnight hour. it's a risk factor. we don't think they're going to shut down the government. >> right. >> we think it's even far less likely they would actually come to the impasse on the debt ceiling. but it's going to be political theatrics for a while. and it means that it just adds to uncertain about what the congress and the white house are going to do. >> this is one last one. again, as a former director of monetary affairs and so forth, if the washington stuff gets done, there is no shutdown, whatever, and there is no debt default, i totally agree with

you, theatrics aside. does that suggest as some people in the market are saying with fiscal policy not on crash course, that the fed might slow down their bond purchases, might taper their bond purchases because the fiscal threat has gone away. that possible? >> i think that they don't have any more attachment to qe. qe was important for them a big signal about their support for the economy and their willingness to keep rates low for a long time. they have erected a whole apparatus of communication, the threshold. they won't raise rates as long as the unemployment is above 6.5%. they're banking on that sort of formal interest rate guidance, and they don't need qe as much. so they will start tapering. >> before the year end? >> they need a coupe of strong employment rates between now an then. >> october? >> earliest december, but if not december, the beginning of the year when the new chairperson rolls out the formal rate guidance and feels they don't need it as much.

>> you're the expert. i happen to agree with you. but you're the expert. and ms. yellin, as brilliant as she, is the queen of the doves. bill pulte, thank you very much. vincent reinhart, thank you. check this picture out. that's jpmorgan chase jamie dimon. showing his id at the justice department this morning. what was he doing there? cnbc's kate kelly has the report up next on "the kudlow report." i was made to work. make my mark with pride. create moments of value. build character through quality. and earn the right to be called a classic.

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report." i'm mary thompson with this news alert. if you have ever wondered why it takes three buttons to control, alt and delete to restart your computer, bill gates explained why today. >> we could have had a single button that the guy who did the ibm keyboard design didn't want to give us our single button. and so we had -- we programmed it to a level. it was a mistake. >> and all of us continue to pay for it. gates made that confession at a harvard university q&a session today. larry, back to you. all right. many thanks to mary thompson. now, jamie dimon of jpmorgan goes to washington today for a face-to-face meeting with attorney general eric holder. kate kelly joins us now with the details. good evening, kate. >> reporter: good evening, larry. so jpmorgan ceo jamie dimon traveled to washington to sit down with attorney general eric holder in hopes of reaching a settlement over the bank's issuance of mortgage-backed

securities that lost their value during the financial crisis, as we all well know. the meeting was set up at least a day ago, maybe even a bit more. nonetheless, prevented dimon from attending another conference scheduled in new york, prompting british prime minister tony blair who was there to joke about having to fill his shoes. jpmorgan and justice started out the week at total loggerheads over how to resolve a long-running mortgage securities probe that also involves the new york attorney general eric schneider man and the federal housing finance agency over products packaged and sold between about 2005 and 2007. at the beginning of the week, the bank was offering to spend some $3 billion to resolve the probe, according to reports, but the government was looking for something more akin to a figure that people have pegged at $20 billion. after reaching that impasse, both parties thought they might result in a lawsuit as early as tuesday. but then they came back together and began discussing a payment of some $11 billion, including a large fine and a smaller but

still significant payment of $4 billion or so for consumer relief. either way, holder signaled today at an unrelated press conference where he took a couple of questions about jpmorgan that his department was going to be very tough on wall street. >> this is something that is a priority for this justice department, to hold accountable people who would manipulate, companies that would manipulate our financial markets who would benefit for their customers or the benefits of the company. >> do look for a resolution some time soon. since it's unlikely that dimon and holder would have even met if they weren't getting pretty close to some sort of final agreement. >> all right, kate kelly, thank you very much for that update. now every day brings the revelation of major new problems and glitches with obama care. today was no different. all the new problems are very serious. obama care in my view just not ready for prime time. we're going to have the details next up on "the kudlow report." [ tires screech ]

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back with "the kudlow report" coming to you live from cnbc headquarters. the president defended obama care today, even though it's

beleaguered by news of glitches. with its october 1 enrollment launch just days away, take a listen. >> there are going to be some glitches as this thing unfolds. folks in different parts of the country will have different experiences. somewhere around the country, there is going to be a computer glitch and the website is not working quite the way it's supposed to, or something happens where there is some error made somewhere. that will happen. that happens whenever you roll out a new program. >> all right. but here is the problem. we're not just talking about a website not loading properly. we're talking about the obama administration announcing that online enrollment for small businesses in the obama health exchanges will be delayed until november 1st. no official explanation for that. people living in washington, d.c. of all places not learning their obama care exchange premium prices and subsidies until mid-november. this delay coming after the district marketplace discovered, quote, a higher roar rate in calculating the tax credits some

people are supposed to get to help them buy insurance. and by the way, colorado and oregon, they're experiencing the same problems, and they also have to delay. and these are just today's glitches. every day there seem to be new problems sprouting up with the new law. so here now to help us make sensing of all this, dr. scott gottlieb from the american enterprise institute. he is a resident fellow. talk quickly. there are so many of these. first of all, today's announcement, the online health exchanges for small businesses not going to work. if you go back to last april, last april, okay, the small business employees were told they could not make their own choices. so this is a complete hosing for small business. >> this program was already delayed. i think they're just not focused on it. they just don't have enough time to get it up and running. >> what is small business going to do? what is the utility of it? >> a lot of people who work for small businesses is going to go into the exchanges if they want to get covered. small businesses won't be able to effectively put all their employees in the exchange and

buy business-wide policies as they were supposed to. >> another one. the so-called family glitch. there is a glitch, apparently some employees of companies with health care don't have their family members signed up. they're talking about 500,000, for example, young children that won't benefit from this bill. how could that happen? >> these were all drafting problems. and a normal environment might have been fixed in terms of how they just crafted the bill there wasn't a lot of thought going in to how they drafted the bill. these were there for from the start. >> and another one is the data hub security issues. >> right. >> let's talk about this for a minute. personal information highly sensitive. not computer-proof there is no firewall. and they're going to do it anyway? >> i think this is the most significant problem that the administration faces. the hub is working on an electronic version of the honor system. the portal which is supposed to link people to buy insurance programs, which 36 states are relying on, it doesn't look like it's functional. i think if there is one thing that could really put obama care in trouble, it's going to be

massive data security breaches. and there is a real possibility for that there is a possibility of fraud. they didn't need to rely on the navigators. they could have turned that over to financial services firms, places where people go to get help with these kinds of things, but they chose not do to do that. >> or they could have delayed, or delay, delay, delay. computer systems are spewing out wrong prices, wrong credits, wrong subsidies, for example. and washington, d.c.'s got this higher roar rate for tax credits for low income people. these are more examples. >> right. they're not just glitches. the systems aren't in place. they had three years to do this. when people go back and monday morning quarterback this, they're going to find that the first year of implementation, they really didn't do anything. a lot of blame i think is going to be cast to the original administrative cms where there wasn't a lot done on his watch to get these electronic systems in place. so they've had to rush to try to do this. and they haven't done a good job. >> why don't they just delay? what is wrong? why don't they delay? >> i think they see it as a political -- because their bar for success here is so low. if one person enrolls in a

health plan this one state, i think they're going to call that a success. >> there is no income verification. what than? you're going to give subsidies away? the honor system? >> that's rite. it's the hub. and they can't verify income. so what is going to happen is a lot of people who weren't eligible for subsidies are going to get it. and they're going to have to figure out way to claw that back next year. >> so you don't have any protection for your personal medical health security history and no proof of income. those are gigantic issues. >> again, they have exempted themselves from the privacy act based on an interpretation of the law that looks very dubious. this looks very fishy in terms of the ability to protect people's private data. if i was them, that is what i would be most worried about. if there is one thing that is going to undermine this is if people lose their personal information. >> another thing that could undermine this is that young people won't sign up a huge part. >> right. it's not a good deal. >> we talked about this last night. i just want to repeat this. a lot of people came back to me today.

let's take a 27-year-old nonsmoking adult in philadelphia. i'm going to use philadelphia, okay. right now he is paying 73 bucks a month for his insurance, the lowest kind of insurance, catastrophic insurance. he doesn't want a high-end. in philadelphia under the obama plan, the cheapest bronze plan, he is going to have to pay $195 a month. he goes from 73 bucks a month to 195 bucks a month. why would any young person do that? >> that's actually cheaper than a lot of markets. a 27-year-old on average across the whole country, if they buy the cheapest plan available in every market, it will be $2400 a year. that's the silver plan. so the cheapest silver plan which is a very restrictive hmo. the administration was out bowing about this. i don't think it's anything to boast about. now, they say they'll subsidize some of the individuals so it will bring down the out of pocket cost of the plan. but basically, what they have done is made insurance very expensive and come in and said we'll subsidize you. >> and if they don't get the

numbers, they won't get the money. >> the young people aren't going to sign up. >> that's going to strike a dagger at the heart of obama care. or they'll raise taxes. >> they'll have to finance it. what is going to help them out is not a lot of people will enroll. the total costs won't be as high as people anticipated because it might be very expensive people get into the market, but there will be much fewer of them. dr. scott gottlieb, stick around. just as the new glitches were coming to light today, president obama was making a campaign-style speech, urging americans to sign up for these obama care plans. we're going to debate whether obama care will fall of its own weight and whether it's time the republicans put out a plan to replace it. next up on "kudlow." i was made to work. make my mark with pride. create moments of value.

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[ female announcer ] you're the boss of your life. in charge of long weekends and longer retirements. ♪ ask your financial professional how lincoln financial can help you take charge of your future. ♪ welcome back to "kudlow report." when it comes to defeating obama care, maybe republicans don't have to try so hard. with the list of obama cares and gingriches mounting by the day, will this sort of thing just sort of die of its own weight? let's talk. here is salon.com political editor blake zeff, national review senior editor and bloomberg columnist. scott gottlieb is still with us. let me go to you. all these glitches and problems mounting by the day. do you think this thing will die

of its own weight or is it going to last and make it? >> well, i don't think that it's a sound strategy to wait for it to die of its own accord. it could take a long time, and it could inflict a lot of damage on its way down. i think the most likely outcome is a fairly disappointing set of results, but not a spectacular catastrophic failure all at once. >> blake zeff, not a catastrophic failure, but so many failures so, many disappointments, it's probably going to be a lot smaller than anybody dreamed. why shouldn't republicans want to amend this or even try to play rest place it? why not? >> i don't think there is any reason why they shouldn't try to amend it. i think that might be the best strategy for republicans. look, repeal is not happening. that's been tried legislatively, you know, they tried the supreme court. that didn't work out. they tried to threaten a government shutdown. now we're talking about the debt ceiling. that's not going to happen. look, i'm not blaming them to try to stop something they don't want. that makes total sense. but amending it does make a lot of sense, right?

this thing is going to happen whether they like it or not. but if they can see real problems with the law and with the program once it's laid out, and they can be the party, when i say they, i mean the republicans, could be the party that actually fixes it, i think that's winning on both policy and politics. >> scott gottlieb, will the republicans be the party that fixes it? right now the defund strategy is not going to work and wouldn't have worked anyway, because it's mostly entitlements that wouldn't be affected. they want to delay a year. suppose they get that. suppose the republicans got a delay of the individual mandate for a year. would that have any particular impact on obama care? >> i don't think so. i think it's going to take another presidential election cycle. if you wanted to fix this, if you were to try and sort of amend it to make it a more market basis, and the first thing you do as allow the exchanges to be far more competitive. basically, the government created a one size fits all there is no real choice. the next thing you do is scale back the subsidies. we shouldn't be subsidizing up to $90,000 a year. target to the people who really

need the help from the federal government. there are ways to move it in a more market-based direction. but it's not going to happen until we have another presidential election. >> ramesh, it may not happen, but some of the things scott gottlieb and other stuff? >> i think the republicans are very effectively this week getting across the message that they're against obama care, and i think it will have all kinds of adverse consequences on health and on the economy. they're not giving -- sending out a message what they would do better, whether amending it, as some of your guests are talking about, or even replacing it, what would theyreplace it with. >> what would they say? >> i think republicans have to say that there are better, more market-friendly ways of getting a lot of people coverage at a lower cost without this threat of rationing, without this threat of taxes. i think they've made some steps that direction. the republican study committee in the house has made some steps, but they're not where they need to be just yet.

>> see, blake zeff, in some sense this thing boils down is who is going to run america's health system. is it going to be government status or pro market and competitive. that's really the choice. republicans have a chance here, do they not, to get their views across? >> they certainly have a chance to get their views across. look, i don't think what ted cruz has been doing over the last selve days is necessarily convincing the country. i think he is speaking to a conservative base, and there are political reasons why that makes a lot of sense for him. i don't think that's been an effective communicator to the country. liberals do not love obama care in terms of the way it's laid out. they want a truly government-run public option. >> is this the first giant step towards that? i know single pair government run european style. isn't that a big step towards that? that's really what i'm getting at. >> are you talking to me? >> yeah. >> well, look, i think that's a fear of the right. and a hope of the left. this is plan that is very much

seen as a give away to insurance companies by a lot of people on the left. this is not a single pair or government-run plan. some something the insurance companies are quite pleased with. >> this are better ways of creating a consensus for people to get into the insurance market than what we're doing right now. >> first of all, can i ask a dumb question? why can't the visitor family get the tax break? that's point number one. get businesses out of the business of health insurance. in other words, give me the tax break. and let me go wherever i go, interstate, internet, whatever, and let me choose the plan that is best for me and essentially it will be an after tax dollars. >> right. that's what we could have done. we could have given people an incent alternative get into the insurance market. if they got into the market and got continuously insured and couldn't get dropped, you would have had a transition problem. you would have had to subsidize certain people and subsidize people through hardships. we would have done that for a lot less money. >> it's a simple message. it's a simple message.

you get the tax break. you get to shop competitively wherever you want to go. why can't the gop say that? >> well, i think there are a bunch of reasons. but one of the biggest ones is republicans have been so against obama care that they've some sometimes sort of idealized the pre-obama care health care system as though there were some kind of free market paradise, which it isn't. >> which it never was. blake zeff, scott gottlieb, ramesh. the markets finally snapped the five-day losing streak today. perhaps they're listening for my bullish case for stocks. we'll show you what you need o to know about today's rally and tomorrow's open, next up on "the kudlow report."

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welcome back to "the kudlow report." i'm mary thompson. the dow snapped a five-day losing streak today with a 55 point gain. the s&p closed up nearly six points. the nasdaq was the strongest, up 26. the nasdaq helped by facebook. close to $50 a share pour the first time. last year it went public at 38. and then by last october it had fallen below $19 a share. be certainly it's recovered since then. and one more thing i want to show you. the russell 2,000 closing at an all-time high today. >> that was an important last point. now let's bring in our stock market gurus to discuss the continuation of the bull market. that's according to me. here is josh brown, cnbc contributor, and scott nation, chief investment officer, nation shares. scott, go to you first.

the fact that the russell 2,000 has gone up, those are small caps, predominantly u.s., you know, dependent. isn't that a good omen for something here? >> oh, certainly. it's a great omen. it says that investors think that small cap stocks have finally really come back. i think it's a great thing that they're paying alittle bit more attention to some of the forgotten names rather than the big names. nike, a giant name, great earnings today. so you can't say that the s&p isn't going to do -- and the dow, nike now a member of the dow, you can't say that those names aren't going to do well tomorrow. >> you know, the stuff that is rising in the russell, i don't want to obsess about the russell, but it's interesting. it's really cyclical pro-growth stuff, industrials and materials and thanks like that. >> yeah. >> i'm not that bullish on the economy, but that's a pretty pretty good signal. >> what the rally in the russell is telling you is people are willing to bet on the u.s. small caps don't have a ton of exposure overseas. >> right. >> i would make the case that now is the time to go back to the multinationals that haven't

done nearly as well as the american-focused companies in the russell. let me set the table for you. chinese pmi at six-month highs. europe recovering. every central bank in the world now getting with the program. governments getting with the program and understanding what austerity has wrought, and now starting to move ever so slowly in the other direction. you want to look at companies like cyclicals which you mentioned. >> right. >> companies that are going to benefit from this new tailwind that had not existed during the 2012 run-up and most of this year. >> your s&p type companies? >> s&p type companies. but these are going to be the materials, the industrials. and they have already -- this is not brand-new, but this is probably much more room. >> all right. this is part of my bull case. go ahead, scott. >> that makes a lot of sense. examples of that would be caterpillar and deere. they're both very cheap on a p/e basis. if china coming back, then caterpillar is coming along for the ride. stronger dollar is going to be a headwind for cat. but it's very cheap, less than 10 p/e. and it's tough to say that's not

cheap on my level. >> would you buy or sell the dollar right now? >> you know, i think what you want the start thinking about is what the dollar is going to do for you from an asset allocation standpoint. if you're a currency trader, it's a different discussion. if you're someone who's got a portfolio, the way you want to go into, what's to come on the fiscal side, larry, you want to maintain your bond allocation that will offset some of the volatility in stocks if we don't get positive headlines. it will also give you the dry powder to come back in if you have missed a lot of this rally which most people have. >> a rising dollar pushes down commodity prices, pushes down, let's take oil for example. >> sure. >> oil is awfully high it seems to me. other commodities haven't performed nearly as well. a strong dollar would get oil down. lower oil prices would sure help consumers. >> yeah. well, look, so far high oil prices haven't necessarily hurt consumers, but you're right. it certainly wouldn't. but here is what you have to think about with oil. it's been correlated with stocks positively since the crash because essentially, it's a risk on indicator. so when oil rallies, we feel

good about the global recovery. when oil sells off, it's tended to coincide with weak stocks. the bottom line is if we can do 117 to $120 a share on the s&p next year, we're trading just under 15 times that. we're not crazy cheap like we were in 2011. >> not bad. >> pretty darn good. so i'm just -- okay, i agree with this scenario. i guess you guys do too. i'm just saying all right, it's not goldilocks. it's like mini goldilocks. instead of 3 or 4% growth, it's 2%. 1, 1.5 inflation. profits rise 5 or 6% a year? what is wrong with that scenario. if josh is right and the international story continues to improve, forget about the melodrama in washington. just be in stocks. >> the problem is that the melodrama in washington means that we have to grow at more than 2% or 2.5%. that's how we grow out of the problems that we have. and 2 1/2% you might say today hey, that was fine given what we saw a few years ago. but you know what?

that's not going to get it done. and given that china is going to grow at 7 or 8% a year, they're going to eat our lunch if we're growing at 2%. >> eat our lunch. all right, josh brown and scott nations, thank you, gentlemen. be sure to tune in tomorrow night. we'll be joined by house republican conference chair kathy mcmorris rodgers and texas governor rick perry. that's it for this evening. i'm larry kudlow. this is "the kudlow report." thanks for watching. when we made our commitment to the gulf, bp had two big goals: help the gulf recover and learn from what happened so we could be a better, safer energy company. i can tell you - safety is at the heart of everything we do. we've added cutting-edge technology, like a new deepwater well cap and a state-of-the-art monitoring center, where experts watch over all drilling activity twenty-four-seven.

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>> narrator: in this episode of "american greed: the fugitives"... meet joe mccool -- a man with promises and plans for other people's life savings. >> we could get 10% a month on our money. sounded awful high, but awfully good, too. >> narrator: he is accused of profiling his clients. >> the older you were, the more vulnerable you were, the more likely you were gonna become joe mccool's next target. >> narrator: but after the money runs out, mccool loses his cool. >> if he didn't like what you had to ask or say, he would hang up on you. >> narrator: and, finally, when no one is looking, joe mccool slips out of town. but first, in lexington, kentucky, jim hammes plays his role perfectly -- the hardworking family man. >> i thought, "wow, i hope i have a great husband like that