it is 2:00 p.m. in washington but might as well be high noon. live at the u.s. senate floor. senators are expected to vote on a resolution to keep the government funded past today. the odds of a federal government shutdown at 12:01 tonight are growing. the stock and bond market are nervous ahead of it. hello, everybody. welcome to a special "street signs." let's get right now to where the action is. that is in d.c. not wall street. eamon javers live on capitol hill. plain english please explain to our viewers and listeners what happens if as expected, the senate rejects the house passed

continued resolution that they will vote on. >> brian, if they reject that house passed continuing resolution they're likely to send what's called a clean cr or continuing resolution back over here to the house of representatives and force them to decide whether they want to pass that clean continuing resolution or they want to send the government into shutdown later tonight. right now, as we speak, we've got two different things going on up here on capitol hill. as you said on the senate side they are getting ready to do exactly that, strip out the house obama care language and send a clean cr back over here to where i'm standing. this is the house of representatives where we are right now just a couple floors below us actually. the house republicans are gathering to try to figure out within their own caucus what they want to do with the rest of the day today. do they want to take up a number of alternatives including perhaps a one-week continuing resolution. do they want to send something back with obama care in it and ping-pong it back to the senate, maybe stripping out the individual mandate part of obama care. that's an option. or do they want to capitulate

entirely? that's still theoretically a possibility. everyone you talk to here on the republican side says no way. it looks, brian, as of right now like we're headed for a shutdown tonight by midnight. >> 12:01 it is. thank you very much, for that, eamon javers. let's see how the market is feeling about this. want to know the definition of a knee-jerk reaction take a look at the tick by tick of all the action on the dow this morning. the index down 171 points at the low of the day earlier on. it has cut that nearly in half but it is still down by triple digits. nonetheless reflecting that uncertainty in washington, the vix has risen more than 20% over the past three sessions. away from the political stage we do need to say because today is the last day of q3 worth pointing out the nasdaq is far and away the best performer for the quarter up about 11%. versus 1.7 for the bow and 4.8 for the s&p. back to politics, the government shuts down 12:01 a.m. if that is the case, it would be the 18th shutdown in the

nation's history. what does history therefore tell us about how the markets typically react during a shutdown? bob pisani you've been doing a lot of research and digging around on that and what have you found? >> the bottom line is fa the effect on the stock market is fairly modest and i think that's one of the reasons we're not seeing a big freak out on the part of the government. the last few shutdowns of what happened to the stock market. while the shutdown was in progress, number one, you should note most of them didn't last very long. here's one that lasted for a few days, december '95 to january '96 flat in the s&p during the period the government was shut down. november 1995 a shutdown for a few days. the s&p was up during that period. october 1990. now we're going back, we did crop a little bit but another period a single day in december' 87 we were up 2.5%. it's inconclusive and long-term the effects are modest and not much at all if you look at it in a longer term. here's the s&p 500. you notice we were moving somewhat to the upside today.

again, the market simply doesn't believe long term this is going to be a big problem. you were mentioning the vix going up. look at the action of the vix during the day here. we've been moving down. you would think we're good heavens getting closer to the real ri crisis, it would be moving up. it's been moving up. protection remains cheap. buy puts in the s&p 500, 1650, relatively keep right now and i think that may be one of the reasons people are selling it. people want to buy it. people who bought it can sell it at a profit right now. buy and sell volatility just like stocks and right now, people are selling volatility not buying it. back to you. >> bob pisani, it interesting there. we should note the senate has begun its vote as eamon javers says. if this is a rejected it will go to the house and a chance john boehner could produce a clean bill which would go back to the senate and only involve funding the government, not involve some of the obama care parts that have been so contentious in this vote still. the senate has begun voting.

the moment we get an update we will bring that to you. as you heard mandy and bob say, it sounds contrarian, is a government shutdown a good long-term buying opportunity. bring in susan, president of fbb capital partners and peter, chief market analyst at the lindsay group. i know it sounds distasteful, susan, when you say buy the d.c. dips, i'm referring to people on capitol hill right now too by that. should you buy the dips if stocks fall and shutdown. >> in stocks fall and shut down unlikely there will be a dip. historically the market has gone up after a shutdown. >> what scenario would mean a dip? what does extended mean in. >> the real scary question is sort of like, going where no map has gone before, is october 17th. that's when we have to make up our mind about whether we're going to be a nation that pays its debts. i mean i think that's the real question. are we going to be a nation that

pays its debts. and that seems to be in question. and if that proves to be not true, then we have a much larger issue we're going to have to face. >> peter, you and i were chatting a moment ago in the green room and you were saying it's incomprehensible to think we would come down to the wire with a debt ceiling or potential default situation without some kind of last-minute compromise? >> the debt ceiling, becauses u.s. debt is the collateral for trillions of dollars worth of things, if it's considered bankruptble or falls into the category where counter parties don't accept it as collateral the logistical disruptions are so enormous it's reason enough they'll be forced to come to a deal. i think the debt ceiling is a big deal but not going to end up being because i don't think we're going to trip over that wire. >> what makes you so confident?

>> because of the mess. if u.s. treasury is no longer collateral for a repo, you can throws u.s. financial system out the door for a couple weeks until they settle this. >> we have some kind of idea. remember back in august 2011, with the debt ceiling issue and made it to the s&p downgrade. the dow went through three weeks of massive triple digit moves either way and settled down. >> but we didn't default. >> no. >> you know, we weren't kicked out of our house with all our bags on the sidewalk. you know, and our children and dogs sitting on the lawn. >> the u.s. really has -- some argue that in 33 or 1790 america sort of defaulted on its debt. but in practicality we never have defaulted on our obligations which to your point is the reason why people buy our debt. it is rock solid. >> right. >> so i like your perspective which is that no matter the political vitriol is in d.c.,

let's pray, hope, neither side is dumb enough to risk something they could never get back. >> right. >> it's short term. the whole word default, when you hear default you don't have enough money to pay bond holders interest. as long as you have a printing press you will be. default used in the wrong way. it's a temporary mess rather than a default. >> a sense in reality, this is a made up mess. by ideologues on both sides. it seems to me there is more worry that the fools will do it than there is if it were not so incredibly illogical. >> which raises the bigger picture question here, why have we got to the situation such polarization, right, going on two sides cannot come together to pass a budget. >> can i remind the audience too remember the giant debt ceiling fight we had back in august of

2011. >> right. >> yeah. >> end of the world stuff. >> yeah. >> the dow is up 40%. >> yeah. >> we got through it. the stock market soared. we can argue it's fed. we can thank the fed. >> thank the fed for that. >> this is a fed-free zone today. >> leave that one out. >> that's a tough -- >> 364 other days are -- >> this is the one fed-free day. >> you see my point. >> no. i -- >> it was the end of the world, fiscal cliff, we're doomed. people sort of made fun of the show because we're hopey and everything is fine and some sort of stupid poly anas because we believe things may turn out to be okay. >> it's temporary. >> okay. >> which comes back to the original question, which begs the question, if we do see a dip we're seeing a dip now, we've been down about six of the last eight sessions, maybe more, is it a buying opportunity. you said at the beginning you don't see it is buying or a selling opportunity. why not? is if you're looking at a company and got to hold it three to five years out, why not buy on the dips?

>> we're living in a totally irrational world. we don't know what we don't know. that's the scariest place to be in the world. >> this show has gotten sort of etherial over the last couple days. >> philosophical. >> big picture type questions. i agree we don't know what we don't know. i agree also with you peter that the end game to this, the keynesian end point or whatever you want to call it is down the road. we're focusing on these 100 women and men in washington, d.c., voting, a vote which by the way is going on right now, and will likely soon be over. as a market strategist, peter, putting aside any political views, do you care about a federal government shutdown? purely from a stock or bond market perspective? >> no. >> i'm focused on the fed and focused on earnings for the third quarter. >> what does that mean? sell rallies? >> yeah. to me the most relevant market action over the past couple weeks has not been the last couple days going into the past weekend. but it was the three days after

the fed announced a continuation of qe which we gave back all of that one-day qe rally. that was a sign what's up with the fed, maybe they're losing control of influencing asset prices. if that's the case we have to be careful. >> is that the reason or maybe it's because okay, fed is out of the way, let's focus on all of the shenanigans going on in the political sphere? maybe that's why instead we gave back the rally that we had on fed day. >> it's possible. the fed gave all the bulls a gift and they didn't run with that ball. >> they didn't run with it. >> that tells me that the complexion of the market has changed and we're about to get to an earnings season where earnings are expected to be up 2%. >> what are you doing in terms of investing? >> well -- >> what are you telling people? >> we have slightly more cash than we normally have. we have not repurchased -- we buy individual bonds and stocks. we don't do mutual funds or limited partnerships any of that kind of stuff. we've been, you know, we've been trimming our stocks a little bit. doing some buying in stocks. we have -- we have not been

rebuying our bonds as they've matured because we just -- the interest rate environment is too dicey. >> let me take the other, push back a little. i hear you we said stocks should be a future earnings. graham and dodd. what about the concept if we shut down, not only will people be furloughed, spenders in the economy but other people in america might be freaked out for lack of a better term and not spend and we are a consumer driven economy and thus earnings will fall and thus the market multiple should drop. >> right. that could happen in the short term but there's a reversal to that. those furloughed workers in 1995/1996 ended up getting paid. so any temporary dip in their spending while we may get that back anyway. >> what are the guarantees that there would be that retroactive pay this time around if we shut down. >> no guarantees but imagine the picture lines. did it in '95, pay us now. >> in which case all the potential lost consumer

confidence or consumer spent money would come back? do you think? >> to some extent. >> the economy is growing only 2% anyway. >> although i would argue any confidence we had in congress was lost a long time ago. >> yeah. >> consumer confidence -- >> consumer confidence and capitol hill confidence which is -- is there a negative confidence number? >> the confidence data should answer that question. >> just a reminder the vote is going on. should not take long. in fact, it may be wrapping up any time. it is an incredibly important vote in the senate right now, if you're listening on the radio a live look-in. as soon as the number is out we're going to let you know first here on cnbc. let's bring in, though, right now host of the kudlow report larry kudlow and john harwood from washington, d.c. larry, it's interesting, you heard from susan and from peter and i've heard it from many others, nobody i've talked to about a potential shutdown is concerned about the stock market in the least. >> well, that's probably the right view. stocks are determined by profits

and probably by federal reserve policy. there's no tax cuts or anything going on. look, very important, in the last half hour, my sources tell me and politico is running this, senator mitch mcconnell, the republican leader in the senate, who has basically been silent up to now, he is now saying he is going to propose a clean cr if they don't get a deal done tonight and they're not going to get a deal done tonight because as you're reporting, the senate is going to table the motion and send it back to the house. mcconnell has a one year clean continuing -- i'm sorry, a one-week, one-week clean continuing resolution which while it doesn't end the deal it basically pulls the rug out from the house. >> well, okay. again, larry, i'm not as versed in the civics as you are about this, but i'm confused. why would that matter? maybe john harwood wants to jump in. why would we care what mcconnell does when this is going to be

back to the house and the ball in their court anyway. can the senate trump the house leave them out of it if mcdouble does what you're reporting? >> i'll leave that -- i'll leave that to john. the short answer is yes. the short answer is, it changes the dynamic substantially in political terms. there might be, there might be a plan c okay, that would come this evening or tomorrow morning. maybe. that would be from the republican house. maybe. the individual mandate might be delayed. the medical tax might be cut. maybe. but if mitch mcconnell is going to step in and throw his weight behind a one-week continuing resolution, if there's nothing done tonight, that changes the political dynamic. that gives john boehner something to hide behind. and say look, we are going to have to leave this cr clean, pass it, no shutdown, and let's move on to the debt bill which is where they want it to go in the first place.

so yes, mcconnell has tremendous political clout inside the republican party. >> john harwood, what are you hearing on this? >> i disagree with larry a ril bit but let me -- before i get to the disagreement talk about what we've seen since this idea has been circulating around this morning. a lot of house conservatives have been trashing this idea as they go into their own meeting at 2:00, saying that it would make them look weak. it's a nonstarter. i'm not sure john boehner wants to get waterboarded another week while we try to figure out what happens for a longer term cr. you know, the way for this to work is now that the november 15th cr will go back to the house is for the house then to pass it and then if mitch mcconnell can figure out a way to make that the position of the united states' senate i'm just a little skeptical. you've heard its getting trashed by the white house, of course, by senate democrats, harry reid said it's a nonstarter dead on arrival but the house

conservatives have been criticizing it so i'm not sure how great the constituency is. the disagreement i have with larry about mcconnell's tremendous influence is remember, mitch mcconnell didn't want what happened with ted cruz to happen. he couldn't stop it. just like john boehner couldn't stop what was happening in the house. but mitch mcconnell has been a little bit overrun right now by -- >> we have to take a break now because we're going to come back when the vote is over and continue the discussion. >> the clock is ticking. >> quickly before we go, john, do you believe that harry reid would accept the one-week clean continuing resolution? >> no, i do not. >> so mcconnell may be out there -- >> much more -- >> no he will. >> john boehner ultimately folds puts a clean cr through november 15th and harry reid would take a one week. >> they're going to cut a deal the way in 2011. the deal is coming. we'll come back. >> come back and talk more about this. stay where you are. still ahead, we are still waiting guys on the results of the senate vote. we will bring you that outcome

as soon as we get. >> it straight ahead former commerce secretary carlos gutierrez his take on a potential showdown. "street signs" after this break. an update on the dow jones industrial average. we are down about 0.7%, 102 points here. so we're seeing the dow off but again, we're a couple percent from all-time highs. this is by far and away not some collapse. all right. let's go right -- no break. no break. right now back to eamon javers in washington, d.c. who is getting up to the microphone. we may have a result from the senate vote. eamon are you there? >> hi, brian. i am here. i do not have a vote for you but can tell you that i was just downstairs where house republicans are meeting, they're trying to figure out what they're going to do when the senate goes through a series of votes today and sends back over some kind of a cr here to the house of representatives. they -- and i'm now told by a producer in my ear they have 51 votes here. so looks like this vote is going to go through and that means that those house republicans who are meeting right now as we

speak downstairs, are going to have to figure out what they do when that tennis ball comes back over here to their side of the court. how do they want to play this out for the rest of the day. they tell me there's a couple options including sending something back with some other piece of anti-obama care legislation attached to it, perhaps delaying the individual mandate and, of course, you guys haven been talking about this idea of a one-week or one month continuing resolution. that's also a possibility. they're working that out downstairs right now and the trick for john boehner who is the speaker of the house, how does he marshall his forces among house republicans when he does not have the political tools that other speakers of the house had in the past to whip them into line. the carrot and stick to lead a large group of politicians who have their own ideas. boehner relatively powerless among his own colleagues to force them to do anything. he's trying to lead by listening to his group but what is -- what is it they're going to tell him in the meeting right now? we will try to find out as soon as it breaks up. >> we are getting an early tally, getting close, 53 to 41

is what we're hearing right now in terms of the votes which would send it back down to the house. the result that has been expected. that's what we're hearing, eamon. 53 votes to send this to the house. to your point as you called it, tennis ball, the gop has it to figure out now what do we do? do we let the government shutdown or send up a single piece of paper with a clean resolution to keep this operating a couple weeks. >> what's a little surprising about this moment that we're in right now, is that this senate bill as -- this senate vote is totally expected. this what is everyone thought was going to happen when it got to the senate. they were going to send it back to the house. the fact that the house of representatives republicans don't have a political playbook that's ready to go ready to run right now, is a little bit surprising because this moment you can see this coming for the past 48, 72 hours. they're trying to figure it out right now in a meeting. they had to get their people together and that really speaks to the degree to which john boehner is leading his conference by following his conference in many ways. he needs to figure out what they

want to do and he can set the agenda based on that. it's not like we've seen with speakers of the house in the past who had a much more forceful leadership style and a lot of political tactics and techniques that boehner just doesn't have available to him now. >> thank you very much for that. we're going to continue to discuss this. kudlow on standby and john harwood and our market guest sitting here as well to react. do not go away. away.r. the peruvian anchovy harvest suffers. it raises the price of fishmeal, cattle feed and beef. bny mellon turns insights like these into powerful investment strategies. for a university endowment. it funds a marine biologist... who studies the peruvian anchovy. invested in the world. bny mellon. because what you don't know, can hurt you.urance. what if you didn't know that posting your travel plans online may attract burglars?

[woman] off to hawaii! what if you didn't know that as the price of gold rises, so should the coverage on your jewelry? [prospector] ahh! what if you didn't know that kitty litter can help you out of a slippery situation? the more you know, the better you can plan for what's ahead. talk to farmers and get smarter about your insurance. ♪ we are farmers bum - pa - dum, bum - bum - bum - bum♪

welcome back. see live picture there of capitol hill. just to bring you up to date we have a situation here where the u.s. senate is sending back to the house the emergency spending bill to keep the government open. after midnight tonight. after this the fate is uncertain. we have larry kudlow standing by and john harwood in d.c. what do you think about this and what happens now? >> i just want to reiterate my point, if mitch mcconnell, the republican leader in the senate, if he says there's going to be a one-week clean cr, okay, that basically takes the rug out from under the house republicans. they could come out with a plan c, they could, they could have a delay of one year for the individual mandate, or the medical device tax cut. what mcconnell is saying is don't expect republican support in the senate. we will not deliver for you on that. that is why this is very important. and remember, it was mcconnell making a deal with reid that ended the crisis in 2011. don't underestimate what's going

on. if there's nothing by midnight tonight i think that this game is going to be over very shortly and there will be a no shutdown. >> john, tony, a smart guy, frequent guest, he expects a shutdown and one that would be measured in weeks, not measured in days. would you agree with that? >> boy, i have the not been expecting that. i got an e-mail from a house republican leadership aide who i asked the question what are the odds of a clean extension of government funding passing the house by midnight avoiding a shutdown. the answer was tough to say. one earlier said we will see. that tells me it's still on the table as house republicans meet right now. but if john boehner is not willing to confront those members of his caucus who have been pushing him like ted cruz has been pushing mitch mcconnell in the senate we could dig in and be at this for a while and if they maintain that position on the debt limit, it's dangerous.

>> and help us understand that as well, john, because let's assume that we get a shutdown, okay. 12:01 the federal government shuts coun, furloughs many workers, how far apart are the two sides? how much would they have to talk? what would be the likelihood of a quick resolution? >> there's only one side in this, brian, making demands. it's the republicans. the democrats have agreed to the spending levels that the house has been talking about. the sequester levels. they would maintain them for the couple of months while they then have a negotiation about the budget. remember, the house and senate each passed budgets this year. they haven't reconciled those two. and that's what the extension to november 15th would allow. the democrats aren't asking for anything except keep the government open. this is -- it's not really about bridging differences unless you think it is a reasonable for one chamber of the congress to say to the president, we need to stop your signature domestic

achievement in exchange for keeping the government funded. that's beyond the bounds of what we expect in our functioning democracy so many republicans in the senate and house, john boehner, the speaker, not least among them, have been trying to avoid the strategy. they're not for the strategy, haven't been able to stop it so far. >> thank you for your insight. tuning in or listening on the radio, we should get you up to date on what the market reaction has been to this. virtually nothing. down by the same amount going into the decision and the market was down by 171 points earlier on in the day. we're well off those lows down by 105 now on the dow jones industrials. tune in to larry kudlow's coverage of what's going on in the government called "the government shutdown" the kudlow report tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern time here on cnbc. >> and in our market notes here, your point was well taken about stocks, we should note the four worst performing stocks are consumer products, p&g, coke,

nike and mcdonald's. maybe concern about consumer fallout. what i find interesting is boeing is the fifth worst, not the worst, you think as a large defense contractor which boeing is, that it might be getting walloped and it's not. >> we're going to dig into some of the defense companies in the potential impact later on in the show. in the meantime why don't we bring in our next guest, very special guest. >> carlos gutierrez. >> former commerce secretary and at allbright group. your reaction to the news? you believe it is likely no clean resolution will come out of the house and we will shut the federal government down at 12:01 a.m.? >> look, i believe that there will be a shutdown, 50/50 or 60/40. it's tough for speaker boehner now to roll over immediately. and i'm not sure that mcdouble's option really does anything for them. where will we be in one week?

>> reid has kind of poo-pooed that anyway. >> it's a short punt it doesn't do much. we're going to have a shutdown. i think boehner will be looking for at least a couple things from his list of options. whether it be the medical device tax, we delay congress as well, i think that one is an easier one politically. but in the end, i believe that what republicans are looking at is this is going to be a terrible implementation, very difficult, very complex, the horror stories about the american -- the affordable care act are going to be plentiful, so we may have a tactical defeat here, but a strategic victory in 14 or in 16. so i think we need to measure it in longer terms than just, you know, who wins this round of poker. i think clearly it's going to be the senate. it's not going to be tonight.

>> secretary, if, indeed, there is a shutdown, talk about what kind of economic impact there might be beyond the very basic fact we will not get the release of the economic data such as the apparels next week. >> zoo between 120 and 140 a month, some which will be retroactive and delayed. over the span of a quarter, i wouldn't see any material impact on a government shutdown of a couple weeks and i don't see it going more than that. because they want to separate these two things. we don't want them to get cluttered. we will see a shutdown for at least a week. >> at least a week. thank you very much for joining us today. secretary. i believe macro economic advisors put on a number on it. a partial federal shutdown lasting two weeks would slice 0.3% off gdp. >> i went back last night, this is how you spend sunday nights,

1996, one of the longest shutdowns in early '96 in january, first quarter gdp grew 3.8% which is a good number. we would love to see that now. 1996 was a different economy than we have right now. but it didn't crush gdp growth. of course the longer it goes on the worse it's going to be. we by the way have debt payments coming up. social security payments. a lot of payments still to come. >> absolutely. >> someone has to be there to print the checks. still ahead believe it or not there is news outside of what's happening in d.c. today and we're going to tell you why apple employees are giving thanks to tim cook today. todayr clto make their money do more.re (ann) to help me plan my next move, i take scottrade's free, in-branch seminars... plus, their live webinars. i use daily market commentary to improve my strategy. and my local scottrade office guides my learning every step of the way. because they know i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. i'm with scottrade.

(announcer) ranked highest in investor satisfaction with self-directed services by j.d. power and associates. but at xerox we've embraced a new role. working behind the scenes to provide companies with services... like helping hr departments manage benefits and pensions for over 11 million employees. reducing document costs by up to 30%... and processing $421 billion dollars in accounts payables each year. helping thousands of companies simplify how work gets done. how's that for an encore? with xerox, you're ready for real business. maestro of project management. baron of the build-out. you need a permit... to be this awesome. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle... and go. you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the mid-size price. (aaron) purrrfect. (vo) meee-ow, business pro. meee-ow.

go national. go like a pro. woman: everyone in the nicu -- all the nurses wanted to watch him when he was there 118 days. everything that you thought was important to you changes in light of having a child that needs you every moment. i wouldn't trade him for the world. who matters most to you says the most about you. at massmutual we're owned by our policyowners, and they matter most to us. if you're caring for a child with special needs,

our innovative special care program offers strategies that can help. must be nice to work for apple with tim cook sending a letter to the entire company today saying they can have the full week of thanksgiving off with pay. well that really got us thinking on "street signs" about that super slow week, between christmas and new year's when pretty much no one does anything, we're asking, should all american companies should down between the two holidays?

you can go to streetsigns.cnbc call. send in your results if you're on twitter as well and we'll show you those later in the show. >> if you say no don't bother to write in. who would say no? >> up next on "street signs," the real impact of a shutdown. that's coming up. here at fidelity, we give you the most free research reports, customizable charts, powerful screening tools, and guaranteed 1-second trades. and at the center of it all is a surprisingly low price -- just $7.95. in fact, fidelity gives you lower trade commissions than schwab, td ameritrade, and etrade. i'm monica santiago of fidelity investments, and low fees and commissions

are another reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account. [ sneezes, coughs ] i've got a big date, but my sinuses are acting up. it's time for advil cold and sinus. [ male announcer ] truth is that won't relieve all your symptoms.

new alka seltzer plus-d relieves more sinus symptoms than any other behind the counter liquid gel. oh what a relief it is.

would a government shutdown hurt the industrials, perhaps the sector most dependent on government spending. time to welcome in a new segment on "street signs," one we will do every day and we do on yahoo! finance and cnbc.com. time for talking numbers. it's where we pit technicals against fundamentals or with each other.

let us kick it off, richard ross, global technical strategist, on the fundamentals, gina sanchez. rich, let us begin with the charts. the xli, an etf that tracks the industrial sector, what is the chart telling you? >> brian, as you know i'm a technical analyst. as such i believe prices drive the market, not the politics. right now prices are suggesting that the industrials are uniquely vulnerable to a decline of as much as 10s%. let's bring up that chart i'll show you exactly how i get there. now, the first pat than we see when we bring up the chart is the rising wedge. while prices are rising, it's actually a bearish pattern. the slope of those highs is declining. that tells us that underlying momentum is eroding even as prices move higher. that's a classic warning sign. second we get a false breakout from that bearish rising wedge. that's the signature of an impending reversal in trend.

we could trade as low as that down around the big round number near 42s. i would be a seller of industrials in here. >> seller of industrials can get clearer than that. guess what they've been with the market doing pretty dog gone well lately. >> yes. i'm obviously a fundamental analyst and i believe that the fundamentals tell the real story. and so let's talk a little bit about that. if you look at government shutdowns and how stock markets have reacted there have been 17 government shutdowns from 1976 until 1995 and those ranged anywhere from one day to 21 days. and the result of the stock market was pretty much almost nothing. there was very, very little average change across the stocks either one week before, one week after, one month after, during the shutdown, there really wasn't a whole lot of movement in the stock markets. what you did get was a lot of volatility. what i care about is who it really impacts. you know what, the xli, there's

definitely some folks in there that will get impacted. lockheed martin, northrop grumman, contractors that will get impacted an they sit in that index. >> i love that guys because you're bringing up another important point i'm looking at the components of the xli and there's a lot of etfs out there whose name may not actually suggest what they hold, like the home builders etf which has best buy or bed, bath & beyond. rich ross, a little worried about it. gina sanchez. thank you for joining us on talking numbers. we will be seeing you many times over the next couple days, weeks, months years. more talking numbers on yahoo! finance. check out our interview with invester bob ol stein on the three biggest myths of investing. go through it for cnbc.com as well. it's pretty cool. you've done it a bunch. you don't have a nice tan picture. >> i don't have a nice tan orangey picture like that no. >> what happened to my ears if

i've worked hard. >> air brushed out. >> yeah. >> i love air brushing. coming up, markets down across the board right now but off the lows. we found names bucking the monday blue. we will be naming high flyers on a down dawn. >> kelly everyboanss at the new stock exchange. i will guess you will use the word washington at least twice. >> i will try to avoid it but i'm sure d.c. will come up as we watch the shutdown clock. the defense industry bracing for a potential shutdown. the head of one defense firm how it could impact his bottom line and someone who says a shutdown could be bullish for markets. carl icahn sitting down with apple ceo tim cook. find out if the icahn effect is going to be good or bad for this stock. all that and more coming up with scott wapner and yours truly on closing bell. stay tuned. i am today by luck.

i put in the hours and built a strong reputation in the industry. i set goals and worked hard to meet them. i've made my success happen. so when it comes to my investments, i'm supposed to just hand it over to a broker and back away? that's not gonna happen. avo: when you work with a schwab financial consultant, you'll get the guidance you need with the control you want. talk to us today. sorry to interrupt, i just want to say, i combined home and auto with state farm, saved 760 bucks. love this guy. okay, does it bother anybody else that the mime is talking? frrreeeeaky! [ male announcer ] bundle home and auto and you could save 760 bucks. alright, mama, let's get going. [ yawns ] naptime is calling my name. [ male announcer ] get to a better state. state farm. [ male announcer ] get to a better state.

the world is changing faster than ever, creating new opportunities for those who stand ready to seize them. in a time when the biggest risk is playing it safe, we believe outshining the competition tomorrow requires challenging your business inside and out today. at cognizant, our flexible, collaborative approach helps forward-looking companies not only run better, but run different... to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you. so if you're ready to see opportunities and see them through, we say: let's get to work. because now more than ever, the future belongs to those who challenge the present.

this segment normally called street talk. today seat talk. we are sitting down you might see as opposed to standing up. anyway, believe it or not a lot

of news outside of washington. let's get to it. first panera bread a down grade from morgan stanley. saying panera may be losing its ability to drive same store sells. the same call the analysts says they should find more value in chipotle upgraded from over weight to equal weight despite a 40% plus run this year. morgan stanley convinced chipotle is not overvalued. >> a look at stock number two from a reuters ser survey. >> the survey shows, survey says, more shoppers prefer sony's play station 4 over microsoft's xbox 1. 26% surveyed said they were likely to buy the ps 4 only 15% choose the xbox 1. sony, by the way, quietly up 83% over the past year. the nikkei still, mandy, still, the best performing developed stock market in all the world up about 40% year to date.

>> which is one of your 2013 forecasts. >> my top forecast. >> cynical about sony's gain. take a look at what's happening with the yen. >> but as our friend would say, i am long sony in dollar terms. >> okay. >> no offense, dennis, love you. >> trading lower despite fbi captain maintaining an outperform rating. >> they believe activity is tracking well despite a choppy spending environment in i.t. poised for healthy revenue booking growth over the coming years. here's why we have it on street talk, seat talk, whatever we're kael calling it today. the target 115. on the radio vm at 81.20. about a 40% upside on vmw seen on that stock. >> region ron at an all-time high. these are levels we have not seen since its ipo in 1991. little fact today thrown in for our viewers and listeners.

>> like a name we've been talking about lately. regenrron, stock blew by 293 a while ago. noting positive data from phase three drug trials for its macular drug. piper jaffray says the drug has blockbuster potential. a billion in sales. we don't know. either way very positive comments. it's already doubled in the past. so many of these little bioteches that have just absolutely nsp pharma, they've just rolled on over everybody. >> let's take a look at an under the radar stock of the day. it is marketo. >> what is a town in minnesota. either way. san mateo software company a couple reassurances, outperform at wells fargo. under the radar name. they do marketing. >> coming up, jetblue rolling out bigger seats and better food and its ceo is here with more about the company's new mint

section. stay tuned. >> it's cool. they always have. they always will. that's why you take charge of your future. your retirement. ♪ ameriprise advisors can help you like they've helped millions of others. listening, planning, working one on one. to help you retire your way... with confidence. that's what ameriprise financial does. that's what they can do with you. ameriprise financial. more within reach. i have a big meeting when we land, but i am so stuffed up, i can't rest. [ male announcer ] nyquil cold and flu liquid gels don't unstuff your nose. they don't? alka seltzer plus night fights your worst cold symptoms, plus has a decongestant. [ inhales deeply ] oh. what a relief it is.

let's get more now to washington, d.c. with the fallout of the senate vote on the shutdown. some of the tracking that we're getting here, i'm sure you're hearing a lot more, is that it's getting nasty. >> some very tough comments just now from harry reid whose he wants republicans to figure this out. no word here from staffers on whether they have ordered up the cots tonight. sometimes they do that and we could be looking at a long night. i'm interested to know if they ordered breakfast for tomorrow morning. tough rhetoric on all sides. when they come out of the meeting we should get a better sense of what the playbook is for the rest of the afternoon and into tonight. >> i think what's really interesting here is even though the u.s. government may be about to shut down, we are just

watching the market and it's continuing to come off its lows. it's down 89. >> that makes a lot of sense actually. the markets should not overreact to a government shutdown. national parks will be impacted, federal workers will definitely be impacted, but all of the essential functions of the u.s. government are going to continue, even in a shutdown scenario. it's even possible that the department of labor will figure out a way to put out the jobs report on friday which a lot of people are looking at so this is not going to be a major, major market event. nationally not as much. what you should be watching this for as a totem to see how they're going to deal with october 17th and the debt ceiling. if they can't get their act together here, it makes it less likely they'll get their act together october 17th and much more likely we'll head to a default scenario. that's much, much more serious than today. >> get through this impasse and hit the next impasse. thank you very much. well, jetblue rolling out a

new premium service called mint. it you've got a brand that was you treat everybody equally, you give everybody the same service. so are you selling out? >> not at all, mandy. in fact delighted to be on the show today. the core experience is improving. that's the headline. so for 14 years, best in class our core experience. other airlines call it coach and it's getting even better. plus we have the mint, the premium experience, call it even more comfort. this isn't a sellout, this is listening to our customers. >> so you believe you're not going to alienate that core customer that you've been built on? >> i think finally the core customer is going to have the

opportunity to purchase a premium experience in a transcontinental market such as kennedy or newark over to the west coast, san francisco or l.a.x., and afford it. $599 to $999 one way. you start pricing some of these seats out there, june 2014, when we're going to start flying. round trip it's $3600 plus. finally at the core traveler, those who are underserved by the other airlines, they're going to have this experience, mandy. this is truly exciting for us. >> talk about the other airlines here. to what degree have you made projections in terms of dollars and cents and actual passenger numbers to stop the bleed of potential customers going to those other airlines. to what degree do you think you can make them come to you for that premium experience? >> i think it's finally our very loyal jetblue customers will stay with us. we heard, listen, we love you guys, fly all the time. i'm not going to fly you because

you don't have a premium offering on a 6.5-hour flight to l.a.x. or san francisco. these of routes where people pay for the fares or their businesses do. that's one issue and the lack of wi-fi. we'll have full broadband wi-fi commencing the end of this year so this is about keeping our very loyal customer base as opposed to seeing them just stay on the other carriers. again, this is a big day for us. we think mint will revolutionize these transcon markets. >> i want to ask you something. last week we were talking about hertz and some of the comments that it made about the slowing down of airport rentals. airport rentals are tied to both business travel and airline travel as well. are you seeing anything that might jibe with that? >> no, not necessarily. as we really see in the marketplace, first of all, overall demand right now is solid. and as we take a look at it, at the end of the day airport rent,

if you will, one line item within our cost structure, we're not seeing anything that obviously we're not able to offer. again, the jetblue experience at the right price point or something without the right cost structure so, no, we're not seeing that. >> dave, we've got to leave it there. i'm being told that you're sitting in one of the chairs that is going to be in that new mint service so you can now relax, lie back, enjoy yourself. there you go. we're doing a pan out. >> hold on, hold on, hold on here. dave, how big are you? >> i'm 5'11". >> okay, good. >> and so 6'8" in terms of -- lie flat but the longest lie flat in the domestic market when we roll this out in the june time frame. by the way, the width of the seat, also up to 22.3 inches, the most comfortable, the widest seat as well and 100 channels of live tv watching cnbc, so this is a great product.

>> thank you very much for joining us today, dave barger, talking about mint. coming up next, results from today's street poll. [ male announcer ] at his current pace, bob will retire when he's 153, which would be fine if bob were a vampire. but he's not. ♪ he's an architect with two kids and a mortgage. luckily, he found someone who gave him a fresh perspective on his portfolio. and with some planning and effort, hopefully bob can retire at a more appropriate age. it's not rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade. it's just common sense. life's an adventure and it always has been. but your erectile dysfunction - it could be a question of blood flow. cialis tadalafil for daily use

helps you be ready anytime the moment's right. you can be more confident in your ability to be ready. and the same cialis is the only daily ed tablet approved to treat ed and symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently or urgently. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medications, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sexual activity. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as this may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess with cialis. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, seek immediate medical help for an erection lasting more than 4 hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or if you have any allergic reactions such as rash, hives, swelling of the lips, tongue or throat, or difficulty breathing or swallowing, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis for daily use and a 30-tablet free trial. transit fares! as in the 37 billion transit fares we help collect each year.

no? oh, right. you're thinking of the 1.6 million daily customer care interactions xerox handles. or the 900 million health insurance claims we process. so, it's no surprise to you that companies depend on today's xerox for services that simplify how work gets done. which is...pretty much what we've always stood for. with xerox, you're ready real business. captain obvious answer. day, 81% of our poll responders say american companies should shut down between christmas and new year's. >> thanks for watching "street signs." >> bye. >> "closing bell" is next. welcome, everyone. breaking news. it's now nine hours before the government will shut down