with treasuries? almost nothing. default. we could default on our debts. but what happened? treasury prices went up. people bought more of our debt. >> always fun having you with us for closing bell. >> it was graetd being with you. fast money starts right now. >> i'm melissa lee. here's tonight's line up. he called the plunge in coal and the surge in shippers. >> and will a strategy pay off. karen finermen has the fine print. >> president obama is speaking exclusively with us about the government shut down show down. >> tried to focus on not just

the government shut down but also the potential threat of the debt ceiling. i asked the president whether he thought that wall street was being accurate to be a little complacent right now and here is what he said. >> i think they should be concerned. typical trip. . not unusual. . have a situation. u.s. government obligations. then we are in trouble.

why can't you just go ahead and do something that makes them happy now. what what what i have to remind people is that what we're debating right now is keeping the government open for two months. we would then be going through this exact same thing in the middle of christmas shopping season, which i don't think many businesses would be interested in. we saw what happened in 2011. and then we would have to go through it again six months from now and six months after that. one thing that i know the american people are tired of and i have to assume the vast majority of businesses are tired of is this constant governing from crisis to crisis. do we need to break that fever? absolutely. >> you told us that you were going to try to stay focused on the big picture, not watch the

stock ticker at the bottom of the screen. are you going to watch that over the next couple of weeks as we get closer and closer to october 17? >> i tend not to make judgment on the basis of the stock market. since i came into office, the stock market has done very well. >> i also asked the president about the appointment process of the new fed chairman. now we have a shut down. i wanted to know whether or not the vetting process which relies on some government workers. >> keep in mind, this is one of the most important apointdmentes that i made other than the supreme court. no the shut down is not slowing down is vetting. the personally appoint will end up being the person who reflects the fed's dual mandate. they will make sure that they

keep an eye on inflation. that they are not encouraging some of the bubbles that we have seen in our economy that have resulted in bust. and they will stay focused on the fact that the unemployment rate is too high. still need an economy that is strengthened so that we can end up putting more people back to work for better wages. >> and the interesting thing about that answer, our colleague steve leisman said that he had not heard before the president put someone who won't create bubbles as a characteristic. they also want somebody who would not be involved in creating asset bubbles. >> i do want to bring in steve leisman. steve, what is your take? who could that kand day-to-day be in terms of bubble preventer? >> that was a short, pregnant, and important answer there.

it is interesting to hear the president talk and think about whether he has appointed somebody to the position that i'm going to be appointing. and i don't know who that person is, melissa, who is not necessarily a bubble creator. first of all, there is debate on whether or not they created bubbles and secondly it's something that happens with the policy. you can read that as yelling if you wanted to because you would have been thought of as part of the regime that created some of the earlier asset bubbles in the early part of the 2000s. >> steve, i would think so, too. i would think that the lack of taper told you that the chairman change you have to have it. it basically set you up for continuity. what you said coupled with

president obama's comments about political wrangling. it makes me almost think, you know, is he back in the running here if obama is also saying stop messing around when it comes to the fed chair appointment. >> i would doubt that somers would be back in the running. the only information that we have is it's a yell in or a don cone. even the president saying that bernanke is doing a fine job. >> one other thing that i thought was interesting was, we have all been expecting this to happen soon. >> i didn't know you were still there. i wanted to ask you, fine job? is that the best? the best that our president could come up with for the

chairman? >> i think he was doing that to deflect the criticism that he has taken too long to deflect a new chair. we have been assuming this is going to come very soon. he said the vetting, it is not interfering with -- i thought that was kind of interesting. >> i think the one question is before he goes to asia or when he comes back to asia? and the fifth and the 14th or so would be the times? it's now going to be something like six through the 10 rather than six through the 12. >> thank you very much. let's go back to the traders here and determine what this might mean for the markets here. he's not watching what the stock

market is doing. you have got to believe that some are thankful that the market has not sold off. that buys them a little more time. >> of course he watches the market. i think the market is the ultimate parameter. he probably quietly wants to see the market have a bit of a hiccup here. as the market stays here there is no urgency. i think that comment about wall street should be cared this time or what were the exact words? >> concerned. >> that -- those are strong words. the market changes those are pretty powerful words. >> by the way, debt ceiling threat, that is -- that's the count clock that everybody is watching. >> that is to be the far more important issue, obviously. i think the shut down could go

on for some time. thaz nost as big a deal as the debt issue. i don't think how he's going to get out of this. i think maybe he has to wait until that starts to be far more pressing. >> in terms of the commodities market, we have not seen the obvious reaction. the oil is moving today. not because of a shut down. >> we're looking at the shut down. it's what he said. you have done a fine job, you sound like that coach that says you're doing a great job. i think the next person he appoints is almost like he's going to be anti-wall street just from what i am reading from his vibe and how he is saying you better be warned. >> the first thing i look at is probably gold today.

fiscal policy that is going nowhe nowhere. >> if you look at yesterday plus today, we're awash. >> i am not saying go buy gold here. you sell this rally in gold because we are heading to a taper. i would be buying utx today. i would be buying the government vendors that got sold off. this is an opportunity. it f you look at some parts of the space that we're rallying, i think it had not been right since the fed non-taper. yields are going higher. the dollar is going higher. if you want to think on a one day basis, you can be very careful in gold here. >> just how long will the shut down last and what will that mean? >> what does this do to the debt ceiling debate? >> what you're going to see is a

hybrid of the two. washington is paralyzed. at this point it probably lasts through the weekend maybe right up until october 17. the grand strategy for both sides here is basically summarized in two words. don't blink. >> in terms of the -- okay. so obviously we get notes as to what our guests are going to say. you say there is going to be a 40% chance that congress fails to raise the debt ceiling. what are we talking about? does that mean default? what are we talking about? >> no. i mean what john referenced in the interview is whether they go to the 14th amendment or whether or not the treasury ends up pry ortizing. you are talking about making very tough political decisions at the treasury. do you go to social security?

ultimately, we think congress will eventually raise the debt ceiling. >> if we get to that point with still no deal. really important payments come up that could actually be more of a lever than some of the stuff. like the walter parks shutting down is not really driving the debate here. >> i would say two things. the treasury was probably going to have a little bit more cash. they may have a little bit more than that. and then the second key date here is november 1. that's when a huge amount of outflows leave the treasury.

>> let's talk about if it is prolonged beyond october 17, we're going right into holiday shopping period. we talk about the consumer going or not going to restaurants or malls or other retailers. >> and a consumer that has been amazingly resilient. the consumer is still doing very well in a market where we have had sequestration. they're buckling under the weight of very high multiples. >> how long of a concern is this in terms of those stocks? >> not in the short term but if protracted it gets to be a problem. >> macy's specifically, this is the longest sell off we have seen. this has been going on since

july, cl we haven't seen since probably this time last year. they are just doing the same thing they did five year ace go. >> coming up elect, a bid made, tending to engage the bore. we have fine print on what he may be up to behind the scenes. after the break, wilbur ross weighs in on his best ideas. it's as simple as this.

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don woods, what's the next level you're watching for here. >> we have not had any new news stories. that was the bottom line in the sand. we had the -- and it sort of

morphed itself into i wouldn't say a solution but they are trying to market it out it will stay above 100. >> from crude to a billionaire investor. leading names watching the fall-out from the dc shut down. joining us now to discuss this as well as his top investments right now. good to see you. >> nice to be back. >> do you think that the shut down is being blown out of proportion but how about the debt ceiling. >> they both are. they both -- let's put them in perspective. hit from government shut down. government spending is $30 billion a day. so, this is not a big event in the overall scheme of things. it would take 57 days of shut down to have a 1% impact on gdp.

all of the scare stuff is way, way overblown. the republicans seem to be of the mind to gradually keep passing bills to reinstate this part and that part. so it would probably take even longer. >> as i understand it you do not like the longer end of the treasury curve? do you not like it enough to short it in some fashion? >> we're not the people who short it. but i can tell you what we have had our portfolio companies do. and to borrow as much long term debt fixed rate as they can. that's what we're trying to protect also. >> but to oversimplify that, is this because you think the industrial is that the reason

you think the rates are back out? but ult plimately -- >> the world is not coming to an end. also, there will be the unwind of all of this bond buying that the treasury has done. the longer they weight, the more painful it will be to unwind. what i was in favor was unwinding $5 billion a month. i believe if they did that and announced that that was the plan, it wouldn't bother the markets at all. i think the uncertainty is far worse than that reality would have been. >> let's talk about shipping stocks.

this is an industry that has experienced huge booms and also enormous busts, taking people out on stretchers. what other me tricks are you looking at that will give you the first sign that we are entering the bust again? >> we are far from the bust phase. we are not into the bust phase, but you know, i think there are many more sectors that are gradually overcoming the excess supply. the problem was not so much lack of demand, the problem was with the last peak in '07, '08, those are now coming to the market. >> there are a number of different markets. what are the ones that you like right now.

>> well, we're not doing anything right now. i think it's going to be quite a little while before that supply and demand works out. they are still ordering pretty large quantities of those vessels and pretty soon you will have the panama canal reopened and widened. that's going to cut the voyage times quite a bit. they have not been able to go through the panama canal before. since we went into it, the rates have gone up from $750 a month to $950. it was pretty profitable at 750,

so you you could imagine what it's like. more or less at the bottom, we brought our biggest competitor. >> shipping stocks are interesting. there is obviously domestically, our shipping stocks here in the united states, railroads. they have all had tremendous runs. any of them interest you. >> i don't know enough about railroads to be sure. they are getting a lot of oil and stuff shipped by rail >> then they could have a little -- it will be.

>> we have had a number of notable investors. comment about apple. bill miller as well as carl icahn both saying that apple is a no-brainer trade. you name it. does it tempt you in anyway? >> i'm not so sure that no-brainer trades exist. i have a tough time finding no-brainer trades. there is usually a reason that somebody is on the other side. i think they should do something with the excess cash whether it's to make some acquisition that fits or to pay it out the way that carl wants them to, i don't know. i'm not into it. >> but surely they can find some

clever way around it. i felt when they did that big bond offering that that was going to be their indirect means of rep ppatriatiorepatriation. >> we talked about shipping and apple. you're still in coal. >> i'm not in coal. >> i haven't been in coal for two years. >> apologies for that. what are your best ideas right now in terms of new areas, new sectors, things on your radar. >> it is only a matter of time the president is gradually allowing the more export to come through. that will help solve quite a bit for a problem that we have. we have such an abundance of natural gas and we have had such reasonably warm weather that it

has not been a good time from the point of view. >> later on, the biggest movers and shakers in today's trade. back. my customers can shop around.

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. 2,000 workers. being furloughed. shut down continues. those furloughs double to 4,000 and as many as 5,000 if it exists. just some clarity from some of the companies in this case. >> big trade here, mike. >> we saw 50,000 of those with the 30 puts. that portion of the trade is making a bullish bet between now

and january. so, they paid a dollar for this thing which is one dollar times 100 times $50,000. it's quite a lot of money. this is one of the larger institutional trades. >> all right. thank you very much for that. john, you actually hold microsoft. the -- you know what? you see it come out today. it has a name recognition and i bought it about two years ago. it's a long term stock. >> 34 has been resistance. if they are playing it for the ma law wee thing, you get -- >> do you fade it now?

>> yes. >> i don't think -- why would -- i don't know what he is going to do but why -- he has a sweet spot at ford. >> to go and turn. that's the same when he was before. >> that's fair. i would be hanging out there until they kicked me out. >> this is what people are doing. we know it's happening and we think it's good news. >> he wants it on the board and calling for the company's ceo to step down saying it is like an old master painting in desperate need of restoration.

>> this is a very toned down dan from the last few years. >> i thought that, actually. first is that he bought stock up here as recently as a couple days ago. this is is a non-staggered board. the entire board is up for election, which makes them particularly vulnerable. the nominations would be due march 8, if it gets to that point. activists, there is -- they together probably own about 1%. insiders own less than 1. that is very interesting. and last thing is what he was not looking to do. he was not looking for a sale of the company. how can this be, what else can they be doing? particularly talks about overseas.

that was interesting to me. i think the chance of him shaking this board up is very high. i am long as a valuation play. it's not cheap. this is a really trophy property, though. there is no other public way to play the art market. >> you say it's not cheap but yet at the same time there is a belief that there is more value to be wrung out of this thing. chronically weak operating margins. >> the other reason why i think the stock can move is it is very thinly followed. there is not a ton of guys following this. other activists can get in here and make a lot of noise and that will move the stock when you have analysts coming in here saying it is up. >> you're on the sidelines? >> i like being on the sidelines. >> you're observing all of this. you have seen the stock pop today. would you buy it?

the case that karen is laying out in terms of ability of activists to enact change is is a pretty good one. >> karen and i did a thing with kristy's. >> i remember you all dolled up. souther byes wanted them. you want to call tiffany's one? it's a short interest in the stock. if i woke up today fluent, i would bid. >> you probably have no options. okay, fine. mike, let's get the options actions on bid. >> there was definitely some unusual activity on a day that was not necessarily overwhelming overall.

these are folks that are making bullish bets. >> all right. coming up neck, another way to play housing. could it give them a real run for its money? plus global payments rallying. farn finerman has been behind quite some time. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box. ♪ all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. ♪ so you want to drive more. safely? of smart.

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>> welcome back >> welcome back to fast. how should you be positioning for the long term? let's bring in the managing director of treasury partners? rich, thanks for making some time for us. appreciate it. >> you're welcome. >> in terms of the bond market we have seen enormous outflows lately. is that what people should be doing for the long term? >> i think that it's important to key on not the intramurals but fed policy.

that provides an incredible opportunity to reduce expose sure to the market. >> exactly. we see a recovering economy jobs growth improvement in house iin manufacturing and rising rates. because of a stronger dollar which will occur as a result consumer discretionary. there is is a lot of activity that could occur as a result of fed action. >> those tend to be more of u.s. centric businesses.

we think the recovery globally is being driven by the u.s. that will continue and lit be recognized in the market. so, our exposures outside the u.s. are very low relative to the last 10 or 15 years. >> got to leave it there. appreciate it. coming up next from tesla to tennant, stay tuned. ♪ ♪ [ female announcer ] you're the boss of your life. in charge of long weekends and longer retirements. ♪ ask your financial professional

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>> welcome back. in case you missed some of today's top moments, sheer a rapid fire recap of tonight's executive edge. >> the magic word that appears to be coming from the administration is complacency. you saw sperling's comment.

>> itd cost the taxpayers some real money but it's not catastrophic. we hit this debt ceiling. that's catastrophic. >> and now today you're here to talk to the president about a political matter. >> is it awkward timing? >> not for me. >> i doubt it. >> there is precedent for a government shut down. with a reserve currency of the world, payments have to go out to people. if money doesn't flow in, then money dount flow out then we have not seen this before. >> did a very good job in terms

of putting it into simple terms as to why the average american should care about the debt ceiling. >> that's why he's a genius. just because you don't find him as desirable as the other guy. >> i think that is what -- >> there is is a difference between a shut down and a default. it's not even close. >> that's a good point in terms of the payrolls report, which we are probably not going to get on friday, that really makes it very difficult in terms -- >> adp has not been the best, though. >> we are flying blind. >> it takes a lot of opportunities for treasury shorts out there. the treasury market, this is a big deal. guys would be specking this number. it's basically inflated bond prices. >> can you imagine when there is that back up of data that is released to the market all at once, what will happen then?

>> i don't think so. the offices need to be open. >> all right. >> time to. >> tesla also responding today to a youtube video showing a model s on fire saying the damage was caused by a collision to the front of the car. >> if you want to look at the valuation, you priced in a lot of competition. edge here, this is is a place where it's fairly valued but people have been saying this for the last 100 bucks. >> i wouldn't touch it. >> 300 times earnings. >> he added to his tesla position on the tip? >> did he say tesla?

>> i heard it when i read the text. up next, health care facility stocks getting a boost today after the initiation of the affordable care act. >> $40 which have traded down and recently traded down the last few days. that's where we own this stock. it's a real story. getting chatter on twitter today. upgrade from a buy to a neutral at citi. >> what's up with these guys? they're not done yet. they have some undiscloeed capital. this is a company that is really probably going to get up to --

beginning of the year you're talking $35. this stock has a lot of room to grow. >> coming up next we talk your retail questions from twitter. the american dream is of a better future,

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>> not so fast. traders are quick but they are not always right. back in july, a bearish call. take a listen. >> i don't think you do a whole lot with this. they have had a nice snap off the bottom. >> the story and the other side of this trade i'm going to. >> the weak seasons a major deal for these guys. you would think with all the reserves in the world is is a major importer of fuel as an

additional subsidy. to me this is is a place where i would still say stay away. the strength is something that i think will continue in the second half of the year. >> it is meant to be fair to say fade the strength. >> we street fought lululemon recently. i like that stock. and i think that initial sell off is completely from the back fit -- >> from the see-through pants?

>> that was a two quarters ago sell off. i forget who i street fought but i think it is going to credit it. >> this tweet said please have tim opine. >> it's right there. 160. 35 times here is not historically a big number. this is is a stock that was giving you 50, 60 times earnings. i think it's a place you have to fade these. they also have a number of parts that are selling off a travel service. they have different pieces of this buzzle. they are dominant in china. it is working. >> here is is a trade update. it was a street fight. >> september 10. >> he won. >> but you won in the market because the market moved, proved

you right. >> where is where i want to be -- that's where you want to be. >> lose the battle, win the war. >> what do you think? >> i don't really see why it would drag down in ordnordstrom. significant negative hat flow. and you're not going to recover the mail based coupon customer. has positive free cash flow. for that i would choose macies. when pennies fails, which it will, macy's will probably be the beneficiary as their customers go to macy's instead. >> i didn't understand that.

>> because if j.c. penney is really at a cash shortage, we saw sachs do this in 2008. >> okay. >> that's how. >> still. >> ultra pocket jeans. >> they called. jcp last night. >> you were? lies. all lies. show me the receipt. >> i can't. i can't. >> lies. >> bring itd tomorrow. >> all right. moving on here. good entry point or stay away? >> i'm long them. as if i'm buying them right here. i like them. i think the most upside here is probably citi bank. (vo) you are a business pro.

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>> >> time for the final trade. >> macy's. >> nibbling and consumer

staples. overdone. >> woods. >> taking bp. still buying it. >> karen? >> still like foot locker. >> bring in my receipt. united sectology. >> show it, baby. >> i don't believe you. >> jerk. >> i'm melissa lee. thanks for watching. in the me tomorrow at 5:00 for more "fast money." meantime, "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. [ bell ]. >> hey, i'm cramer! welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want the make friends. i'm just trying to help you make a little money. my job is not just to entertain you, but to educate you and to earn money. so call me 1-800-743-cnbc. it's all about the managers who come in and buy stocks despite the gloom, selecting companies