we're still not sure. >> all attention will continue to be on washington for the time being. >> that does it for closing bell. thanks for joining us. >> fast money begins right now. >> live from the nasdaq market si site. >> we give you the top five items to watch. tesla is stalling out. first a downgrade and then a fire. driving the tesla coaster for a while. find out if he thinks the bull case is finally cracked. and mobile money. the payment trend early after a huge run. find out. our traders tonight.

let's get straight to our top story tonight. market timer in cheap. you may or may not . buying stocks is a potentially good deal. >> a faction is. >> then we are in trouble. and if they are willing to do it now, they will be willing to do it later.

>> what should we make of the obama indicator. is this time different when it comes to a possible default? when it comes to the markets are you getting to be concerned? >> you know, my line in the sand is 1650. if we breakthrough there i will say that something else is going on. i think the president is using the stock market as a negotiating tool. back in 2009 he was not exactly pounding the table but up here he is saying be worried. they are using the stock market that way. for me, below 1650, i'm going to have to re-evaluate. i think you can still buy the dips. >> he says he doesn't look at the ticker at the bottom of the screen. >> i don't think anyone is talking default on the republican side. i don't think they would allow that. i think to brian's point, this

is just a negotiating tool. i would be staying long in the market. >> i don't know where the bottom would be. certainly before we get the ceiling resolved. i don't know when that's going to be. so, doing nothing differently. >> at the same time you don't want to spook anybody either. >> i think they absolutely want to spook. i think it behooves them to have -- the status quo doesn't help -- trying to push something through. a situation where we have some sense of urgency makes things move quicker.

>> and you have the normal -- you have the other republicans. the tea partiers have a vested interest in carrying through with their threats. >> and remember the great line, never let a good crisis go to waste. >> you have been pretty spot on when it comes to identifying the ranges and stocks that we should be watching. >> in terms of the market we said 1725. here we are. thought it would trade up to 1725. i think it topped out at 1729. i would be very surprised if we didn't see 1670 soon. that was the may high before we traded down in june. >> the funny thing is he filmed all of that this afternoon. >> he has a lot of shirts back there. >> the magic of television. >> what's the next level? >> this is now -- if you ask --

slightly lower day. you have some sort of something happens that is positive for the market over the weekend. and you get that face ripping rally that we have seen time and time again. that's probably the opportunity to sell it once again. if you ask me what's going to happen, i think on monday we come in. the s&p 500 is up. >> it is really uncanning how you are able to do that. it is like you are clairvoyant. >> i know her. >> a sense-o-graphic. >> steve, great to see you.

>> thank you. >> it seems i don't want to say unpatd yachtic to wish for a bigger sell off. but are we at that point where maybe that will provide a catalyst for dc to actually resolve some of the issues? >> yes. we are not inspecting a major pull back. be selective on pull backs. >> do you not anticipate a huge issue? >> we're confident they will figure out. probably not until the end. up until that point there is cause for a lot of volatility. there is so much money sitting on the sideline that we're still constructive. government is shut down but corporate profits are not.

>> steve, are you at all concerned with taper and if so, i see that you like financials. does that get into your equation at all in deciding which financials you would like to get into? >> the fed is going to taper. it's important to remember that they are tapering for the right reasons. the reason we like financials is that we do think rates are going to gradually rise throughout the course of the next couple of years. so we are overweight financials and we like many of them heading into 2014. >> what do you not like in this environment? >> i think all the bond proxies and equities, investors have been hiding there for the last few years trying to get that yield. >> steve, thank you.

twitter just sent a tweet. our s-1 will be filed momentarily. as soon as we have that filing we will break it down for you in the meantime. >> i look at a shut down and i think it's going to go to october 17 which means you're talking three weeks here. you are looking at about 1% of gdp, which means you're really only looking at a 1% economy. that means taper is off the table and the fed could actually flair and add more to the

program. so you look at gold, you look at some of the cyclicals because those will do well and i like buying bonds here as well. >> i like google. no one has ever heard me say that twice. i like google. i am still in tesla as you will find out later and i like bank of america. that's my favorite. >> stocks that have their own stories what do you think will sell off? what high flying stock would sell off. it did trade down a little bit. it has had a huge run since so my bad on that one. mastercard and visa. >> sorry, the s-1 is out. twitter has pubically filed i

its-1 with the sec. julia is in la looking at itd. >> i don't have it yet. i haven't seen it yet. i am looking for it but i don't have it yet. >> okay. so we have it filed. we haven't gotten a chance to look through it. twitter has filed its s-1. we will continue to look through this. >> the same way we looked at facebook. i was fooled because i thought it was going to be a rip roaring success right from day one. people have to carve out little spaces for the new issues. you're going to look at the rest of tech.

>> more than 100 of those are daily active users. they will be very interesting to investors is the fact that mobile is the primary driver of twitter's business and that 75% of the average monthly active user access twitter from a mobile device. here comes the key revenue part. they have experienced rapid growth in revenue in recent periods. >> now looking at the first six months of this year, revenue increased by 107% to 253.6

million. so just to project that out, that is roughly in line. if you double that for a full year period. so that's the key revenue number there. 253.6 million for the first half of the year. they have a lot of data in the number of active users and time line growth. i will continue to scroll through here. they talk about the evolution of twitter. public realtime and controversial distributed. the idea that tweets go everywhere. and they are designed to be accessed on any mobile device. that means what they are talking about is why they are valuable.

obviously twitter is based almost entirely on advertising. they talk with unique ad formats. the ability to do earned media which means basically to have tweets build off of the natural conversation and to have that be something that goes viral and alsotizing in the moment. very timely and reaching people exactly where they are. there are 2.4 billion internet users and 1.2 billion smart phone users. it means there is major potential down the line. they talk about geographic expansion and product development. they also say they believe from an advertising perspective and this is where the revenue comes in, they believe they can

increase the value by enhancing advertising services and making our platform more accessible. they plan to improve targeting and open the platform to additional advertisers saying that advertiser outside the u.s. represent a significant opportunity. and also they will launch new advertising formats and so we are looking for more there. i just got to the risk factors here. the risk factors are always interesting for a situation like this. they say if the users do not continue to contribute content then they may experience a decline in the number of users accessing the products.

>> another key risk factor here is that if they fail to expand effectively in international markets, revenue and business will be harmed. they talk also about competing with other services that would evolve. i'm going to continue to move down here. very interesting. a lot of things that are not particularly surprising. >> looking for the million monthly active users of the 100 million daily active users and revenue they saw a 107% revenue growth to $253.6 million. let's bring in sam, who tracks a

lot of the companies when they are trading on exchanges in terms of some of the metrics. >> it's really what we anticipated. you're going to see when you go down that income statement you will see how much of it dropped to the bottom line. and most particularly you will see and it should be confirmed any second is that you're going to see the gross margins of this company, in other words, the revenue minus the server and hosting cost. twitter we bet you will see half of that. this thing is is a cash cow. substantial gross margin. >> when you take a look at some of the metrics, you want to do a

comparison. can you compare this to a facebook? >> they have to show us all the prior versions and amendments. now it's hard to compare. this is a lot to look at. something the sec forced them to take out that they wanted in is very revealing or that twitter added later for a reason that is also very revealing. >> sam is going to stick around to help us navigate through this s 1. twtr is the ticker symbol for

twitter. much more after the break. tment. managing them, moving them, making them work. we oversee 20% of the world's financial assets. and that gives us scale and insight no one else has. investment management combined with investment servicing. bringing the power of investments to people's lives. invested in the world. bny mellon. folks have suffered from frequent heartburn. but getting heartburn and then treating day after day is a thing of the past. block the acid with prilosec otc, and don't get heartburn in the first place. [ male announcer ] one pill each morning. 24 hours. zero heartburn.

>> twitter's s-1 has been officially filed. >> of course the filing is

missing a lot of things like the number of shares that fell off. >> take a look at some of these stakes. the executive chairman, he is one of the founders. he doesn't have an executive role any more. evan williams, another founder has a 12% stake in the company. he only has a 1.6% stake in the company. the peter who is also a board member, he is one of the earliest backers of twitter. he has a 6.7% stake in the company. certainly a lot of executives have big investments in twitter that they will maintain. my sources say that most shareholders will not be selling into this deal.

the symbol will be twtr. the number that is in front of the book is $1 billion. now one other interesting thing i want to know is of course we have been talking about goldman sachs. there are several underwriters listed on the book. but we al see morgan stanley, j.p. morgan, deutsche bank and two boutique names. some of the banks have been in talks to lend a credit facility to twitter. >> they have about $52 million of pure cash. so certainly an interesting

thing. they have been plugging a lot into capex. >> let's bring back sam. you have been able to look at the numbers a little more. >> how does it compare with some of the others. >> we're doing the comparison with facebook as being the primary metric. the biggest disappointment would have to be what we would call the monthlies over the dailies. that essentially we have 218 million active users. that means the average twitter user visits only 2.2 times a month. that's very weak, actually. >> i don't think they would underplay it for our own ipo.

define an active user that is following at least 30 people and in turn, at least a third of the people they are following follow them back. they are defining it that way. >> we are looking at friday, november eight, that's the date of this ipo. plan b is the following friday, november 15. with thanksgiving on us, they have to get this thing out by

november 15. this is going be a rush job. anyone can pull off a 60 day ipo, it would be twitter. >> the price of twitter ads has gone down dramatically. this is is a company whose ad revenues, 87%. they are very dependent on ad revenues. >> that doesn't surprise us. it's very hard to measure what the roi on that investment is. they charge you when you place an ad on google per click. you get that right? twitter you're paying for a follower. what is a follower worth? that has never been established. they are trying to address that with mopub. that helps to follow the user in true purchase.

they are trying to clearly bet on transparency. they spent 300 million of it including some cash and some stock. there is no question that some of the numbers are not going in a direction that you want to go in. that also explains why they are rushing this as well. >> so, obviously at a certain point we will talk about how to trade twitter. can't do that now. but facebook is obviously the one that you have to turn to. i thought facebook and i still think that you own it into their earnings release. now you're getting the cross currents. they're not going to knock the cover all the ball for them to sustain the movement we have seen already. that might be an interesting

trade. >> were you getting at the belief that you think that twitter's business is based on the numbers you have seen so far? we have only seen a few. the business is -- it doesn't sound good to me. >> in general, some of the numbers are disappointing. that was roughly double. i'm still on track. we're looking at -- i have to see what's in there. >> we're going to keep looking through this s-1. sam, stick around. we will have much, much more from this twitter filing after this. ♪ norfolk southern what's your function? ♪

hooking up the country helping business run ♪ ♪ build! we're investing big to keep our country in the lead. ♪ load! we keep moving to deliver what you need. and that means growth, lots of cargo going all around the globe. cars and parts, fuel and steel, peas and rice, hey that's nice! ♪ norfolk southern what's your function? ♪ ♪ helping this big country move ahead as one ♪ ♪ norfolk southern how's that function? ♪

you really love, what would you do?" ♪ [ woman ] i'd be a writer. [ man ] i'd be a baker. [ woman ] i wanna be a pie maker. [ man ] i wanna be a pilot. [ woman ] i'd be an architect. what if i told you someone could pay you and what if that person were you? ♪ when you think about it, isn't that what retirement should be, paying ourselves to do what we love? ♪ folks have suffered from frequent heartburn. but getting heartburn and then treating day after day is a thing of the past. block the acid with prilosec otc, and don't get heartburn in the first place. [ male announcer ] one pill each morning. 24 hours. zero heartburn.

>> welcome back. we're following the breaking news on twitter. the details on where the biggest chunk of advertising revenue is coming from. >> it's all about mobile. twitter talks about being a mobile first company and it really is. 75% of twitter's monthly users access twitter from a mobile device. that translates to over 65% of twitter's advertising coming from mobile devices. twitter says that they do expect people to continue to access twitter more and more and that will contribute a larger percentage of its revenue. just to return to a couple of points made earlier, there is a 59% decrease in average cost per

ad engagement. that means among other things people are checking more and there are a lot more ads out there. i say people access twitter by seeing tweets interspersed with ads. so, there are various metrics here and this comes down to the fact that this is a mobile company. >> i'm just wondering. it seems to get at that problem that facebook initially had.

65% of ad revenues come from mobile in the second quarter. and at the same time in the second quarter, the price for twitter ads is down 46%. >> they are showing a lot more ads and there is is a lot more experimenting. there wasn't a lot of twitter ad inventory. they were rolling the ads out very slowly. i think the fact that they show this dramatic increase, that they report here in this s-1. to me that says the price is down but they are showing more ads and maybe they are doing a better job targeting them so the ads are more effective. an interesting comparison to facebook, there has been a lot of question about what is twitter's revenue going to be.

facebook's revenue. >> all right. thanks for that. let's discuss that. 118 revenue per user for twitter, twtr. $1.60 per facebook. if you had to choose today, what would be your inclination? >> i would much rather be in twitter. i think the way they have done this, the risk of it being a facebook flop on the ipo is much less than it was for base fook. they're telling you what they're going to do. i would rather be in twitter. what do we do with this information tomorrow?

if linked in gets below 240. >> you say they may be atms to fund a twitter acquisition? >> absolutely. >> are you worried as a long time holder in google that maybe google will be an atm? >> i don't think it's going to take out a big enough chunk. i think the real target is going to be facebook. what do we keep going back to? facebook. that's the one that is going take it. >> let's get more on the corporate governance of twitter. >> melissa, it's really interesting. it's on page 86. they are creating a staggered

board and going so far to say that that may delay or prevent a change in control of the company. that means that twitter is staggering its board so that it's less susceptible to a take over. they might not even make it public without facebook or apple that is to thwart a potential takeover attempt. growth may ham per that. they will be charged double for tax. remember groupon expanded too quickly and they ended up incuring a 1,600% effective tax rate. that killed their earnings. so people are going to want to see that twitter has international expansion under

control. and finally there is language about privacy. and the fact that privacy is so important right now that the governments and regulators around the world are considering a number of regulatory proposals concerning data proposals and if any of those harm the ability to mine data, that could adverse the business model. a lot of interesting things that we can borrow from cnbc. >> thanks for that. let's talk about the corporate governance here. a staggered board. that seems like it would be logical. >> it does. we haven't seen companies that come out of the gate like this. the board is pretty well represented there. i don't think that's really on the radar. >> guy, facebook or twitter? >> when twitter comes out, i think twitter is set up for wall

street and i think the ipo is going to go a lot more smoothly than facebook did. twitter. having no idea where it's going to open. >> we have got to take a break here. details on executive pay and more details that you need to know. stay with us. ♪ [ cows moo ] [ sizzling ] more rain... [ thunder rumbles ] ♪ [ male announcer ] when the world moves... futures move first. learn futures from experienced pros with dedicated chats and daily live webinars. and trade with papermoney to test-drive the market. ♪ all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade.

my customers can shop around-- see who does good work and compare costs. it doesn't usually work that way with health care. but with unitedhealthcare, i get information on quality rated doctors, treatment options and estimates for how much i'll pay. that helps me, and my guys, make better decisions. i don't like guesses with my business, and definitely not with our health. innovations that work for you. that's health in numbers. unitedhealthcare.

>> welcome back to fast money. we are live at sometimes square. dan you had predicted that the spiralling would come on friday. what do you see so far? >> a couple of surprises. first is the top dollar amount. this is not exactly the exact amount you want to raise. clearly they are looking for a giant offering here. two other surprises. one there is no letter at the beginning of this.

i noticed the company has had issues with their founders. it is surprising not to see that in this sort of offering. thaz has been reports for a while that they have been leaning towards the new york spok exchange over the nasdaq. >> thanks for calling in not knowing what exchange is surprising. we know what symbol. we have heard lots of reports of late. it will be one of the premier listings in technology. >> it does make you nervous that dan says there was no letter. are they rushing to get to market before the end of the year? is something going on. >> there is no question this is

is a rushed ipo. this is going to be 58 days. you should be a little concerned. if they were confident they should be walking in with that swagger and not be rushing like this. i saw the s-1 they filed back in september. and also no letters. clearly indicate that not that it's not up to snuff. usually you would expect it. they don't even want to take any chances on delay and that is concerning. >> there is a litter from twitter if you go into the filing so we can go through that in the meantime. it's very short. it is very short. the last sentence is thank you

for supporting us through your tweets, your business, and now your potential ownership of this service. >> is it 140 characters? >> good one. shares on ebay falling today. mike? >> this is interesting. ebay has been range bound and it's been trading towards the upper end of that range. basically we're seeing buyers pay about 70 cents. >> thanks mike for that. we're going to have much, much more breaking news out of twitter when we come back. so i c an reach ally bank 24/7, but there are no branches? 24/7. i'm sorry, i'm just really reluctant to try new things. really? what's wrong with trying new things? look! mommy's new vacuum!

(cat screech) you feel that in your muscles? i do... drink water. it's a long story. well, not having branches let's us give you great rates and service. i'd like that. a new way to bank. a better way to save. ally bank. your money needs an ally. maestro of project management. baron of the build-out. you need a permit... to be this awesome. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle... and go. you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the mid-size price. (aaron) purrrfect. (vo) meee-ow, business pro. meee-ow. go national. go like a pro. woman: everyone in the nicu -- all the nurses wanted to watch him

when he was there 118 days. everything that you thought was important to you changes in light of having a child that needs you every moment. i wouldn't trade him for the world. who matters most to you says the most about you. at massmutual we're owned by our policyowners, and they matter most to us. if you're caring for a child with special needs, our innovative special care program offers strategies that can help. (announcer) scottrade knows our and invest their own way. with scottrade's smart text, i can quickly understand my charts, and spend more time trading.

their quick trade bar lets my account follow me online so i can react in real-time. plus, my local scottrade office is there to help. because they know i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. i'm with scottrade. (announcer) ranked highest in investor satisfaction with self-directed services by j.d. power and associates. >> welcome back. in case you missed some of today's top moments, here is is a rapid fire recap of tonight's executive edge. >> i hate the whole concept of a debt ceiling. to me it is a flaw in our

system. congress has already approved the spending and then say you have to come back and agree to allow us to meet the full faith and obligations. >> we will go right up to the point of you know, extreme idiocy. if it goes one second beyond the debt limit, that will not do us in. >> initial jobless claims were up a the treasury department in a report being released nutritioning remarks about the flet of a shut down.

>> this isn't happening because of some financial crisis. it's happening because of a reckless republican shut down in washington. >> steve, what stands out to you? >> you know, it stands out because in that interview, the president said that he was not name calling. it's good that we finished off with that. if this is all about a default. >> a lot can happen in terms of deterioration of confidence that could do a lot of damage for the quarter because of this. >> warren buffet said they would go to extreme idiocy. we have seen that over the fiscal cliff debate. i expect this to go right up to the edge and over. >> coming up next, more on the

breaking news from twitter. we will talk about twitter's rising costs next. bny mellon combines investment management & investment servicing, giving us unique insights which help us attract the industry's brightest minds who create powerful strategies for a country's investments which are used to build new schools to build more bright minds. invested in the world. bny mellon. vietnam in 1972. [ all ] fort benning, georgia in 1999. [ male announcer ] usaa auto insurance is often handed down from generation to generation. because it offers a superior level of protection and because usaa's commitment to serve military members, veterans, and their families is without equal. begin your legacy, get an auto insurance quote.

usaa. we know what it means to serve.

>> in case you haven't heard, twitter is going public. we have been combing through all of the data. got some interesting numbers. jewel ja? >> that's right. we have talked a lot about how fast its r & d costs are increasing dramatically. now the company has also reported a pick up in marketing and sales. so those costs are more than doubling just as the revenue is more than doubling. so i want to also point out through what twitter's leadership is getting paid.

dick costello is getting -- got paid $11.5 million in total pay. the ad chief got played $6.7 million in 2012. and the third person who is listed is christopher fry with 10.3 million in total compensation. soot guy listed is the former ceo of twitter with 12% of the company and i have to point out another surprising individual with a huge chunk of ownership is peter, with 6.7%.

>> lst. thanks for that. i want to get to a point you made during the break. sam made it clear that he believed this filing was rushed. >> you could make that case with any ipo right now. you want to -- the biggest ipo is probably going to be al ali baba. you probably want to beat them to market. you don't want another ipo to suck the oxygen out of the room. >> yahoo! has done extraordinarily well, i might add. >> got a piece of breaking news that will affect trading tomorrow.

union pacific, warning on earnings. the reason why is interesting. they say that mild summer weather combined with disruptions from flooding in colorado impacted coal volumes. >> we're talking government shut down, debt ceiling, that's where you start to get into problems with this. what people will be talking about tomorrow, what's the opposite of gold? death cross. 50 crossing the 100. >> first trade tomorrow when we come right back. [ male announcer ] when you wear dentures you may not know that your mouth is under attack, from food particles and bacteria.

try fixodent. it helps create a food seal defense for a clean mouth and kills bacteria for fresh breath. ♪ fixodent, and forget it. a lot can happen in a second. with fidelity's guaranteed one-second trade execution, we route your order to up to 75 market centers to look for the best possible price -- maybe even better than you expected. it's all part of our goal to execute your trade in one second. i'm derrick chan of fidelity investments. our one-second trade execution is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account. we went out and asked people a simple question:

how old is the oldest person you've known? we gave people a sticker and had them show us. we learned a lot of us have known someone who's lived well into their 90s. and that's a great thing. but even though we're living longer, one thing that hasn't changed much is the official retirement age. ♪ the question is how do you make sure you have the money you need

to enjoy all of these years. ♪ >> final trade time. mike? >> health care thc, i think we can sell some november puts. >> bank of america. it's been a long term position of mine. i have added to itd. i'm hopeful. >> yesterday, transcanada upped the estimates. >> karen? >> i like bank of america but also like citi bank.

>> guy? >> you want to fly tonight? >> julia? the whole team. >> there it is. myl. >> see you back here tomorrow again at at 5:00. meantime, "mad money" starts right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hey, i'm cramer, welcome to "mad money," welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to entertain you but to teach you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. it's happening. i was over at the stand where i buy my coffee every day. a couple people asked me,