that will do it for closing bell tonight. thanks so much for joining us. fast money begins right now. see you tomorrow. >> live in new york city's time square, here is our line up. our politics may look like a hot mess but that doesn't meep you should be selling american stocks or the dollar. warning season. third quarter earnings kick off this week. and shopping for a street fight. is macy's still the teflon retailer?

let's get straight to our top story today. should you be bold and buy this dip? a lot are coming out saying maybe not so rosy. >> i would tend to agree with them. i think if the estimates continue to come down i don't think they have pulled back enough but i think there will be great opportunity. >> if it gets back under the $50 level, i want to own this stock. i think they are the best in the business.

>> that will be a catalyst. to see that even if itd's a big charge. looking forward, i am optimistic on things. >> and then there is the government shut down. >> n still on going. >> i thought there would be some reconciliation over the weekend. that stock was basically unchanged today. down maybe four cents. i think you can still own black stone. valuations are reasonable.

i think j.p. morgan surprises people. we talked about this. if there was ever a quarter for them to knock the cover off the ball, this is the quarter. >> bank of america has so much housing negativity behind it. i like it. istth it's the best way. >> in terms of japan morgan, morgan stanley came back. from where we are here and that is about a 20% upside. >> i agree with that break down completely. >> do we need to see a settlement? >> i think so. that's when the opportunity really becomes.

yes, here's the number. i love that company. i look at those investment banks, too. >> how much would that settlement lift the whole space? >> the government once they're through with j.p. morgan they're going to set their sights on somebody else the sooner the better. i would say if you don't want that type of exposure you go with bank of america. so i think that is already into the million. >> you maybe have a template for the settlement.

clarity no matter how large. >> nice shirt. >> they are very similar. >> a two shot. >> almost twins. >> next guest says the u.s. is still number one and the green back remains a good bet. within the u.s. you actually like financials. >> i think as a long term investor you have to think what are the drivers for financials going forward. that helps for banks.

as a whole, we think earnings power could increase. >> and then do we have to remain the flight for safety trade? compared to the last debt ceiling show down, the u.s. was a clear safe haven trade. >> an investment because of a risk off type trade. probably going to be stricter than it was before. that actually has improved over the last years. that tends to help.

>> absolutely. i think if you see a rising rate environment because the u.s. economy is gradually improving and inflation is still a concern, that tends to be good for cyclical stocks. if rising rates are happening because inflation is a huge concern, think of maybe brazil that's a different situation. >> in europe you like mid and small caps. why? because they are more domestic oriented companies. >> so if you like u.s. and you like the european recovery what

about the u.s. multinational. >> i think valuation comes into play. a lot of the -- i do agree, also might be looking interesting. it's more of a u.s. play rather than a china or rush hour. >> it was up 15% today. are people just grasping and hoping? >> and it is a hedge fund favor. >> to a certain degree. when you look at europe you have to do your home work. you don't just have money and buy europe as a whole. you have to look at the

relationships and say are they going the survive? so you have to do your home work. you mentioned greece. you get a country like spain. still ugly. slowly getting above 50. >> is there a certain times of the year? is it october? november? or just open ended now? what's the next date we have to worry about with certain areas? >> as a whole, that is clearly the biggest concern. over the next couple of months it gives time for individual investors to do their home work. >> i do.

some of our stuff that has exposure in europe. gm has exposure there. i am believer. >> nice. >> pete? nbg. national bank of greece. are you dabbling in it? >> i have been in here before. you look at these calls. there are people out there, there are folks out there that are definitely committing capital to some of the names. >> all right. let's get a market flash here.

jamba blames constraints on bad weather in key markets. >> coming up next goldman jumping on the housing band wagon. >> i did buy dr who on the today. people are afraid that the home recovery is over?

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>> goldman sachs making a pair of calls. 6 what is the best way to play the next leg? guy, it's interesting the reasons they downgraded. 6 6. >> that would be actually be an encouraging thing if that were the case. this is an extraordinarily volatile stock. when the news is at its worse, when the stocks look their worst, that's the opportunity to buy them. >> you have been in realty from

the beginning? >> yes. and also they will get revenues based on the price of houses. they are much closer tied to that. >> some breaking news. carl icahn has tweeted. >> he said in his tweet that they disclosed a 61 million share stake like you can see there in that particular stock. discussions with the management. so carl icahn at it again.

and melissa those shares are up big on that particular tweet. >> maybe no surprise. there are very unusual activity here? >> always even into today. stocks under 12 just last week traded over 12. i have been talking about this energy space. obviously this is a different set of circumstances all together with carl tweeting about this. a lot of options throughout the entire. >> prior to this pop in the afterhour session, the regular session was up by 4.6%.

>> sniffing around the options. pete talks about that. completely under per fore mans. and quietly slowly it's starting to really regain and starting to catch up to its peers. exxon is doing nothing and hovering around this level forever. >> i will add one more thing. a lot of buying if you look at the filing it has the most recent 60 days. the refiner space.

>> let's move on to the next trade. they are the most volatile stocks. there are some companies that are typically very volatile. tweets move the stock. it's a very volatile stock. averages a move about 14% on the day it reports. so individual investors are advised to stay away from some of the names. these go back over the last several years.

>> what is an average move? >> about 3 or 4% mpl it's a big move. >> do you think a lot of this has to do with the three names you brought up all have short interest. you buy others and overs view them as a short term fad stock. >> glad you mentioned the fad stocks. >> what would you do going into earnings season to protect yourself? >> you can also use pete's strategies to protect yourself in options.

>> fundamentals and the fact that these stocks move a lot, are there in that are buys in earnings? we try not to play the earnings place. once it opens, it usually goes in the opposite direction. >> thank you for coming on. >> thanks for having me. >> big movers of the ception.

books it shouldn't lead to a broader market rally. >> copper intuitive surgery call? you look at this name. it moves in huge gaps both up and down today. i think right now the stock goes to the up side. >> they finally did agree to sell their juicy division. >> drop here for abercrombie? >> people usually start talking about it being a take out candidate.

i haven't heard any of that yet. the sale shattered a previous record but unlike diamonds, records don't last forever. >> what's that thing? that jared place? >> yeah. >> or that or that. what's that website we used to talk about? >> blue nile. >> could macies be the ideal growth stark?

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>> before you know it the holiday shopping season will be in full swing and retailers will once again be in focus. so should you be buying this dip? 90 seconds total to make the case. >> my bull case is straightforward straightforward.

so when i get a stock like macy's that i can buy at this valuation with this balance sheet, this management team i'm going to hold on to it. i would buy more here. >> i think the consumer is a little bit strapped. not a particularly good sign. yet an interesting inventory build last quarter we will see if it manifests itself now.

it has not traded well now since the middle of the summer. it just doesn't feel right for me so we will see. >> this time different? that's the argument. sorry. >> okay. let's get the verdict. what do you say, pete? >> you had great points. this is a well run company.

>> we want to know who you out there think won our street fight. switch gears and talk a little more about gasoline. will this trend continue? let's bring in the commodities king himself. >> good thanks what is the trend for gas and oil at this point? are and i suspect that we have

seen the weakness run its course. if those start to return again you have to be impressed. >> how does it play in in terms of it being done with that porg of it being done a little sooner than expected? is that a boost to your investment case? >> i think so. i hope it gets accomplished. the southern portion is going to be on stream in another 30 days or so. we will see if the president goes ahead and aproves the northern portion of the pipeline. that will only ip crease the amount of crude oil moving into

export trade which eventually we can't export crude oil but we can export products. we will start to see a greater demand. what yo ear startding to see is the economies around the world are actually in better condition. >> a lot of people are tweeting us about shippers and shipping stocks. which ones do you like? >> well the sec they give me a hard time about mentioning individuals. i like shipping across the board. i have been a proponent of watching the index for 20 years.

it's one of those businesses where i want to own simple things. if you drop a ship on your foot it's going to hurt. i think that is what the dry index is going to tell you. all right. in terms of the oil trade? >> i like nat gat. but maybe it's a supply issue. nothing? it was right there. it was half way funny. >> totally not fupy.

you want to be careful on the level. >> global money. that's next. plus some social media to smart phones. a look at some of the biggest names blowing up the twitter sphere after this break.

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>> welcome back to fast money. mobile payments are one of the hottest trades of the year. karen has been ahead of the curve on this one. >> i think the hardware and the software to help this migration is interesting. and today, it could be some of the atm companies.

they had us. so we have no position there. i still think they are positioned nicely for mobile pamtds. >> so the similar cards, they have a paper trail. >> i don't know what you're talking about. >> i'm surprised that you know what that is. >> yeah. all right. now to the government shut down. let's move on to the bear case

scenario. >> the markets seem to be taking everything pretty much in stride? how do you see it? >> so far not much has happened. this is the small event compared to the debt ceiling event. boys will be boys and they will get it together and fix off of this. but if this goes all the way to the debt ceiling and they still don't look like they have made a decision, the market is going to take a little hit. what does one do when you don't have government data? how do you predict what the economy is doing? >> this is like watching the nfl and the replacement players.

that is the real story. it's not about payroll um employment or housing starts but whether confidence is taking a hit. >> so far it has not been that big of a deal. we just cut our fourth quarter forecast from 2.5 to 2 -- >> that's a big cut, though. >> yeah. they are saying every time we have a budget decision to make we're going to shut the government down? what does that tell you if you want to commit to the american economy?

but that confidence is worrisome. >> you could have said that the first time around when the talked drifted off. >> they have seen this so many times. they always reach a deal. the economy is doing okay. earnings are still very high. the internal stock market scene is great.

at what point do you get concerned that the retail that the consumer is not going to be taking this in strit? we just had a debate about macy's. how concerned are you? >> i think that we saw they that is saying that the markets can smell where the real problem is. then it becomes much more than a couple weeks of pay. >> still ahead, it was a down day for stocks. which companies are they? find out next. ♪ ♪ there'll be the usual presentations on research. and development.

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today. international paper traded 29 times average daily call volume. you also saw that. traded four times. certainly some names ss out there. stocks that have been beaten down where players were trying to buy some calls. >> which one really stood out to you? >> pepsi is an interesting name here. here is a stock that has tried to revitalize itself. it really turned that. that's a 1.5 million $bet to the upside.

trying to buy some calls. pepsi is one of those names that could get a bump once the market turns around. >> do you like pepsi over coca-cola? >> they did a great yield. everything seems to be there right now.

>> pepsi and coke pepsi definitely looks a little better. >> if it does kick back guy,

and it will gold miners will outrally. >> coming up next a look at some of the biggest moments in today's executive edge. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box. ♪ ♪ all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. ♪ ♪ i love having a free checked bag with my united mileageplus explorer card. i've saved $75 in checked bag fees. [ delavane ] priority boarding is really important to us. you can

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>> welcome back. in case you missed some of today's top moments, here is a rapid fire recap in tonight's executive edge. >> are you expecting us to go right up to the 17th? >> i think it's going to go right up to the wire. that's what we have seen in the past. i think it's unfortunate that we're here. >> we can get out of this for the remainder of the obama presidency and republicans can say when cruise gets elected president -- >> at least get in place a frame work for three years so we can stop this nuttiness. >> all right. >> i think there is a way, the republicans seem to be in search of a prize of some kind. i think there is is a face

saving way out of this. >> very much the ceo. i am real really busy. >> are you taking yourself out of the running? >> who most reminds you of you the way they play? >> that's kind of hard. >> some young guy. >> it's hard for me to carry around this big head. >> you are sitting on the right side of the desk. >> i would say fitzgerald because of his work ethic.

>> i can't see that happening so i would not be a buyer of the stock based on that. >> i would actually think that there might be some sort of floor because people are optimistic that whoever is better than this. >> i think there is other places to go. >> i don't want to speak for you. >> let's move on. you tweeted we traded. this one is for pete. question is will options on twitter be available the day it ipos? >> no. actually it's really simple. this will be an extremely wanted very much like facebook. not even trading yet and put a

lot of very hard diligent work into the pricing and why he came to this level. >> i have not yet. the next event that's going to come up is i think their earnings are in two weeks or so. i probably would not buy it back before then. >> guy has been talking about it this way. now there is a new price target of $30 put on the stock. >> if regis called in right now, what would you tell him? >> i would say you're a stud like i always say. >> thank you. thank you clam! >> no kidding.

>> did he call? >> that was rosso. >> unbelievable. >> i know. the stock can go higher. i don't love the way it traded today. >> like it. first move tomorrow when we come back.

>> all right. who won the street fight on macy's? karen, the bull won. >> thanks for voter 50 times. >> the most hated song in the world. >> the worst three songs ever written. >> because you lost the street fight, that's what you get. time for the first trade. >> it will go higher. continue to work. i think these are good prices. >> i have got to put my money where my mouse is and go with the letter m, macy's. >> teflon. >> listen to this music. awesome. >> don't buy this eight track.

>> >> exactly! whatever. i'm melissa, "mad money" starts right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now! hey, i'm cramer! welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends on days like today. my job is not just to entertain you, but to help you figure this out and coach you, so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. sure, it's rough out there. you hear