the standstill and the president set to report a new fed chairman first woman ever likely to take that job as well. so you can say it's a busy hour, but that might be an underestimate. it's beautiful outside and we are awaiting the fed minutes about set to cross right now. >> the federal reserve engaging in a heated debate, in its september meeting whether to or not to taper. you've heard that publicly but we learned what happened in the meeting. many were concerned about the government shutdown and debt ceiling debate. the two concerns were in the room while the fed made that decision. the hawks however, warned about the feds's credibility saying it was at stake but not tapering. the doves saying the june economic conditions laid out in the plan of that meeting were not met. all the voting members but one decided as you know said it was best to wait to taper. the fed was well aware what the markets expected.

said several times in the minutes and several members say the decision on the taper was a, quote, close call. i want to go through each side here. supporting a taper, the economic data consistent with -- was consistent with taper from new. cumulative progress in the labor market, the credibility of the fed at stake and concern that no taper would send the pessimistic be message on the fed's economic outlook. on the other side those saying the data had been disappointing, the debt ceiling debate loomed, interest rates were up and they actually were specific about concerns about the effect of rise in interest rates on net interest margin and a risk management approach saying the better part here, the more prudent approach was not to taper. but we also learned in these minutes is that the federal reserve staff gave what i consider to be a very -- series of pessimistic warnings to the fed including concern about the effect on mortgage rates and mortgage applications. the effect of financial stability broadly and warning that there were a number of potential shocks that could come

from higher rates and what was going on. even though these minutes portray a close call, what we know is that at the time there was a theoretical discussion about the debt ceiling debate and the shutdown. since those are here now, i think it's safe to say it's less of a close call right now that concern became reality and so that has a huge effect right now on where -- >> also certainly seems on if each of those individual points, a lot of to and fro and very close but by the end of it cumulatively they were in favor of not tapering. >> takes me a half hour to read the minutes. they went back and forth as you said giving laborious space to each side and talking about how a close call it was. trying i think to give a little guidance for the future, i don't get it in the dense. all i know is that they're not -- they don't seem on the verge of doing anything. >> i'm a dense guy, we know that. put it in ways i can understand. >> dense in a different way. >> i think --

>> let's take it into the football field, shall we. the hawks v the doves. the doves just pushing the hawks around for years, right. i mean the hawks backs against the wall. have we seen any movement at all really? >> that's an excellent question. i would describe going back and looking at the videotape, the hawks were on the verge there of getting some folks over to their side. the if fiscal debate and the higher interest rates were a cause for caution for those guys to come over. since that's become reality i think they're firmly for a while -- >> they almost tried a 52-yard field goal but decided to punt instead. >> it was close. >> let's continue now, the headlines and the sports analogies out of the way and find out what this all means, cnbc contributor peter is on set with us. welcome. we have bianeyaianco research president, steve liesman will hang around, not only a football fan but a fed head. peter, at what point, i hope my analogy made some sense at all,

where do you think we're going to be here under a likely yellen fed? >> there will be no change and based on what steve said with the minutes the fed leaves two things, still thinks qe works and deathly afraid of pulling back too early. my answer is qe does not work in influencing the economy and there will never be a good time to remove qe because interest rates will head higher when that happens. if they're talking about the fears of rise in interest rates and impact they will have to deal with that when they eventually do taper. >> can i back up for a second. we're talking about the assumption yellen is going to be the next fed chairwoman. i'm going to ask you steve, considering all the po litization of this nomination do you think it is in the bag that she's going to be confirmed? still a chance she won't? >> i think she'll be confirmed. we had bob corker on squawk box and he said i shouldn't say this but she's going to get through. i couldn't disagree more with

peter but let jim take the stage. >> take the statement. what's your take an this and where do we go from here? >> it really underscores the confusion there is with the fed. everybody's looking for a consensus among the fed and there is no consensus. you have 19 members of the fomc of which 12 vote in a rotating fashion. 19 different opinions about what the fed should be doing. and that's what's made it so confusing about everything. i agree with what steve said. yes, they said they could see tapering at the end of the year but that's out the window with the government shutdown and debt ceiling debate. there's no chance that we're going to see that in october and very little chance that we're going to see that in december as well too. >> is 19 dissents a bad thing? why isn't that a good ds good thing. last thing you want, although some want this, for a bunch of people to sit around and nod stupidly in agreement with each other? >> in theory there's nothing wrong with that. the supreme court rules 5-4 all the time on laws. but the fed has this thing called forward guidance. they want to tell you where they're going to go. that assumes there is a

consensus in the room about what they want to do. but what it's becoming more and more obvious about, there isn't a consensus in the room right now and that's what's made it so confusing for everybody to try to figure out where the fed is going to go next. >> two points. first of all, not to be too -- 17 members right now. missing two governors. the other point, though, is i think that yes, they are all over the place right now and it could go either way but, in fact, that's the story with the data, jim. it's not like the market itself has a clear vision on where things are going right now. i'm not sure if you put 17 investors in a room they would have the same -- they would have -- they would come to a consensus. >> do you want to respond? >> i push back a little bit, steve. i don't think the data is the confusion in the issue. aagree with the doves. the data hasn't gotten better since september of 12 when they started qe3. what peter was talking about, is

qe effective. a number of members in that room that do not think it's effective. there's members that do think it's effective and the data has not warranted a taper. they're all over the place. >> can we go back to that. peter and jim have a view on this. i'll just say, how do you say that, given how the market reacted to the two surprises? in both very violent ways that made it clear that both interest rates and stocks, which are two things the federal reserve can really effect affect, have been sensitive to the outlook for tapering? >> one interesting thing, we have the september 18th stock market rally. we gave it back on the next three days. i don't blame expectations because the government was going to shut down a month later. to me that was a sign maybe for the first time in many years the fed has somewhat lost its influence on the stock market because of the confusion it created. i think the fed is losing its influence on the bond market and if they lose influence on pushing stock prices higher they have an issue because the transmission mechanism is somewhat lost. >> you think this is why the

market has been swooning since the record highs on september 18th and september 19th? because we've been talking about this, if the market really does think there's going to be any kind of default, surely they don't think it's going to be something that they don't think is rectified quickly why wouldn't thissen a buying -- this be a buying opportunity as opposed to selling opportunity. >> it's the monetary uncertainty now. because this whole data dependency thing is a subjective thing. what's a better economy? some think this defines a better economy. others think this defines a better economy. we're still somewhat lost of what they're going to do. they're going to be easy for a while but the pushback that the bond markets had since may hasn't given itself back. the ten-year yield is 266, 267, well above where it was in may. that can argue for the fed losing some control, some not all control, of the bond market and the longer end of the curve is making some decisions on their own, ir representative of the fed. >> we have to leave it there.

peter, jim, steve, thank you so much for joining us today. interesting times we live in. check in with bob and rick to see what kind of reaction or no reaction as the case may be in the stock and bond world. bob, i want to get down to you first of all. so buried in discussions i haven't been watching the finer ticks on the stock market but what kind of movement have we had to the minutes if any? >> well, modest move to the upside. at the highs for the day but what caught everybody's attention down here the headlines i haven't read the minutes we saw the headlines, all voting members but one said it was best to wait to taper. and then the fed was well aware the markets expected a taper. well thanks a lot for that. i hope somewhere in these minutes that i'm going to read them as soon as i get upstairs there is discussion about improving the communications because they certainly failed on this one. everybody was bitterly disappointed by what happened here in terms of the taper expectations. there you see we did move to the highs for the day here on that and why did they move up a little? because from this it's very obvious and i agree with peter, that they're going to wait as long as possible to actually

begin the taper. if you look at the vix, we've noted all day the vix and the last several days, the vix stabilized but dropping here in the middle of the day. stabilized that came out. i want to show you the fact we are here that indicates short-term tension in the stock market overall by and large when it's happened in the past it's been buying opportunities. back to you. >> all right. bob thank you very much. i appreciate that. >> are stocks about ready to take a 15% nose dive. one analyst says yes. >> and also we are leaded for a 15% correction does that make gold any more compelling? we're just getting started here, "street signs" is back after a quick break. [ female announc] it's time for the annual shareholders meeting. ♪ there'll be the usual presentations on research. and development. some new members of the team will be introduced. the chairman emeritus will distribute his usual wisdom. and you? well, you're the chief life officer.

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take a look at what gold is up to, kind of feeling the heat, down more than 1% right now and downward pressure from the goldman sachs calling gold a slam dunk sell. the fiscal crisis is resolved in washington. not that it's been doing well during the crisis. in fact, let's take a look at the gold it's seen outflows since the government shutdown and as we can see is down again today. but what's going to happen to gold if we do default? joining us now is miguel, a new face to cnbc, good to see someone like that. great to have you on the show. >> thank you for having me. >> what happens to gold if we default? >> i think if we do default it's going to be a little late for people wanting to get into gold because it will probably

skyrocket. we could have the reverse situation where maybe because of the crisis, many people might have to lick question date their positions to make themselves whole. gold theoretically could have the same problem during the lehman collapse it could drop off in the first signal and then make a comeback. >> two ways to think here, a, all the uncertainty should drive us into buying gold or b, if we did default, everything is going to drop. i would be more in the b camp, what camp would you be in? >> i agree there will be significant pressure on all commodities in the beginning but gold will regain its value and start making its way -- >> why sh. >> people don't want dollars. when people don't have -- >> i've never bought anything with gold in my entire life. >> there are people who have. >> when? >> when you buy the gold and hold the gold it retains its value and it's a protection when the other side of your -- >> who accepts gold for anything? >> you transact it to the other currencies.

want to buy something interest the uk you buy pounds. gold you have to buy your pounds or dollars or yen to go and do whatever else you want to do. but the point is gold holds its value and able to flip into that other commodity or currency i'm sorry, to make sure purchase. it protects you in that way. and we give you the ability to do that. >> explain to us and just maybe walk us through if you like, some of the things that are different now from how they were say back in august and september 2011. last time the debt ceiling debate was out there we saw record highs in gold, hit above 1900 an ounce and now we're going nowhere right now and gold is down about 20% year to date. >> obviously today, i think it was last night that goldman came out with the comment that they expect gold to go down to about $1,000. >> which is negative for today but like i was saying in the introduction we've been sort of kind of moving down. >> drifting. >> since the government shutdown. >> we're drifting and gold is listless because people are concerned and not sure if this

is the time to get in. in fact, today i made a phone call to a company and spoke to a woman i had no idea invested in gold. she started talking to me about that she had bought gold and asked if i thought now would be a good time considering the debt ceiling. i said you have to make your decision but gold is an insurance policy against the failure of the rest of your portfolio. >> i want to bring up a chart from 1995 and 1996 because i took a look at gold and what it did. we've had shutdowns. this is the last lengthy shutdown we had and gold rose about 8%. see from the chart there. nice spike. then it tumbled for years. obviously different economy different times zero inflation there. any similarity between that and what we see now? >> no. what drove the tumble after that, i mean we could have a spike like we did, but what drove that tumble was the deregulation and the mortgage industry an also the -- all the free low cost money that was flying around and that's why reals estate took off and we're

paying for right now is the free flowing money of that time. >> can i quickly as you're talking free flowing money the yellen nomination, probably in about 25 minutes time from now. are you surprised there isn't any more bid considering she does have a dovish posture. >> the concern like everyone keeps saying where is the positive effect from the fed's quantitative easing. we don't see it because there's not enough lending going out into the public's sphere. it's being held in the banks and using it to trade with or to use against their own businesses but it's not making it out to the public sector where we need growth, need employment and if we don't get employment, we don't get growth the gdp doesn't come up and we're in nowhere's vil and why you need gold. >> you made a good argument for gold. >> thank you for having me. >> three ways to dc-proof your portfolio. >> today down about 70%, the name and what went wrong coming

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bring back in steve liesman. first time this has happened on

"street signs" because in the 20 some pages of fed minutes do a great job looking at them and you found a line you think is important. >> yeah. another part of the minutes in the summary of economic projections, i want to tell you what it says. most participants see their economic view as broadly consistent with tapering later this year. so that is a little different than the discussion we had with peter, maybe a little different than the tone we gave or i thought maybe given that now it doesn't change the idea that because of the shutdown and the debt ceiling debate, that maybe that's off this year but at the time i think it's important for people to know they thought even if they didn't taper at had this meeting they still were anticipating or their economic projections were anticipating a taper later this year which made it more of the default position that perhaps we knew. it was in a part of the minutes we don't normally read ahead and it was the dentist minutes. i apologize for missing it. people need to factor it into what the fed might do this year. >> if you think it's important we know it's important. >> thank you.

>> thank you very much, steve liesman. across town from the white house our very own eamon javers has been chasing down members of congress. he's been asking them when they will get a deal done and eamon, did you have any luck at all? >> i didn't. i'm back over here at the white house but i spent the morning up on capitol hill asking members of congress where the compromise is, where the deal is going to come from if it does come. we had a little hopeful development this morning because we had the top four house leaders meeting in one room at one time two democrats, two republicans including nancy pelosi and john boehner. we don't know what they talked about but that's at least encouraging there was some meeting for them to attend. but if you talk to the rank and file like we did, you don't hear a whole lot of compromise. take a listen to what they had to say. >> the president senator reid and the house democrats are right to resist all of these efforts. >> if the president sits back there and folds his arms and says, i refuse to negotiate, this could go on a long time.

>> i am not prepared to begin to pick away at the affordable care act. >> the president, very highest levels of leadership in this country, stop saying that i'm not going to talk, that i'm not going to negotiate, because i think that failure to discuss, failure to communicate, at least failure to resolve. >> are we going to have a failure to resolve here? maybe, maybe not. one of the interesting things that a lot of these members of congress focused on, though, is that medical devices tax that's part of obama care. a number of members of congress mentioned that to me as one thing if it was included in a final deal could be a sweetener, that might help get them a short term cr and debt ceiling limit increase with a little cave by the democrats. the question is whether or not the democrats are willing to cave on that or anything at this point. it's up in the air as we talk right now, guys. >> eamon javers, keep grilling them until you get the answer you want. >> will do. >> what should investors do if anything to position their

portfolios ahead of a potential default. let's ask the portfolio of a small cap fund. you've come along with three great ideas. before we get to those on the macro point of view if a client calls up and says i'm a little worried about this default thing, not sure what to do, do you say to them panic, sell, or this, too, shall pass? >> i say i give them the same speech i gave them on benghazi on syria the irs scandal on the taper that we've been talking about for the past six weeks, you know. focus on u.s. companies. focus on things that we can control which are business and buying stocks. you know, to me this is just a lot of noise. >> well, craig, you know i love you and we appreciate you coming on. >> i love you. >> it's a love fest here. and your flagship fund up 28% year to date. however, you just said buy

american. one of your stock picks is an upstart low-cost airline based in old mexico. >> yes, yes. you know we've been in the airlines for a couple years, done extremely well. another one of our themes that we're excited about is the rebirth or not the rebirth but the kind of the ascension that mexico is going through. there's a lot of jobs are going to mexico. the economy is growing fast, twice as fast as the u.s. economy. and there's an ipo about three or four weeks ago, va hair ris, and we think that it's -- their costs are incredibly cheap, about eight airlines go out of business there and so capacity has been cut way back like what's happened here in the u.s. market. it's a low-cost airlines, their costs are about 30% below everyone else's. they're basically trying to, you know, most people travel in mexico by bus. >> yeah. >> and pricing fares competitive with bus fares. i think that, you know, it's a little bit risky. i wouldn't just go out and buy

it, you know, with a short in term in mind but it does have promise long term. >> very quickly wisdom tree you like, major etf player, just launching a new emerger market consumer but they're up 81% year to date. >> yeah. >> still buy it at these levels? >> it's really retreated and it's very volatile. this stock trades on basically by the rearview mirror, meaning whatever has just happened in the market, this stock responds. when you had a lot of inflows earlier in the year, the stock went up. when we've had kind of leveling out and some outflows out of equities the stock has dropped back. you know, the etf business has been growing 30% a year for the last decade. and it's made stock pickers like us active managers have a really much easier time because we're getting a real passive investment world. it's going to continue and when money finally starts coming out of the bond market, i think etfs unfortunately will get a lot of that money. >> craig, we have to leave it

there. i apologize cutting you off. thank you very much for joining us. >> great being on. thank you, guys. >> on deck on the big show, high flyer is falling and bottom dweller is rising above. our disaster de jour in sunshine stocks coming up. >> are stocks about ready to take a 15% nose dive? one analyst says yes, absolutely. we'll explain next. the american dream is of a better future,

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welcome back to "street signs." darden restaurant stock is serving up gains for shareholders after the restaurant company behind brands like red lobster and olive garden has become the target of hedge fund berrington capital according to a dow jones report citing people fa familiar. they've taken an almost 3% stake in darden an pushing for a breakup of the company. shares did get as high as 51.17 but backed off those levels. back over to you.

>> thank you very much. are stocks in for a big correction yes if you ask the big thinkers at stock gem. the bank saying the s&p could drop get this 15% when the fed ends qe, when of course if it ever does. joining us is roland tallyon, i skrids that up, apologize for that, he co-authored the report. we have a bit of a delay because he's overseas. the basis of your thesis on the drop is what? >> look, trading at all-time high. almost triple since march to include the dividend and outperformed all its peers all over the world. so there is some rationality to see a correction on the short term and we expect something around 15% correction. and besides, the uncertainty in the u.s., that's led to a government shutdown, the biggest

concern for us is the fed change policy. we expect the fed to taper in -- at the beginning of next year and as a remainder, after the qe1, the markets, the s&p 500 dropped by 16% after qe2, it dropped by 17%. so we expect a correction. >> when you start talking about the 15% correction in the beginning of the post-qe3 world, are you talking about the 15% correction kicking in at the first sign of taper? because once we start tapering there's going to be, i assume, a fairly lengthy process by which eventually the qe3 process will be completely wound back. are you talking about the first glimpse of taper we're going to see this? >> yeah. i think the market will be very, very -- about that. it's not expected that the market will taper soon and the fed could surprise at the

beginning of 2014 to -- by tapering, you know, tapering is the first step toward tightening. first you have the tapering and then you have later the full threat highs. i'm sure with the tapering we're going to see higher yield and stronger dollar and that's obviously the u.s. equities. >> we have to leave it there. an interesting argument. bold call, perhaps best that you are in france. thank you very much for joining us. have a good evening. >> the big question around the government shutdown aside from when will it end is what, if any, impact it will have on consumer spending. let us start talking numbers. on the technicals, dafb, and on the fundamentals, andy is author of "the bush update." how much will the government shutdown weigh on confidence and actual spending some. >> yeah. so this year is a lot different from last year. last year we didn't have -- what

we had behind the economy right now clearly consumer confidence is higher this year, jobs are, you know, there's more jobs and clearly real estate is helping out quite a bit. that's why we've seen e it tfs like rth be up about 24% this year. the problem is, it's all baked in the cake. so when you have something like the government shutdown come along it really disturbing people on the retail sector. so my thinking is on this particular etf and retail overall i don't want to buy this until we start getting some of the numbers that look weak for consumer confidence. those will come out in late november. that's when i want to start buying for the holiday season because i do think consumers will remain cautious but had they will buy. >> dave, let's take a look at the rta, the etf that tracks the retail spenders. the retail holders etf, top three names, though, walmart, home depot and am ma zop. heavily weighted toward the big boys. what is this chart telling you

about the sector as a whole if anything? >> the chart is telling you to stay long right now. we've had about a 5% sell-off in the last couple weeks. 8% from the top and it's telling you we're still in an up trend. as long as we hold 54 we should stay in that up trend. i would not get short this etf until we break 54 and as a coincidence the hundred day moving average is 5396. these big boys being in this etf says a lot of things. the five top names make up 30%, the top ten names make up 100%. take amazon, for instance. still in an up trend. amazon sold 30 points off the high. we know they have no earnings but still in an up trend until it breaks 290 level it will stay in an up trend and still not short amazon. walmart is in a down trend. their direct competitors everybody is saying amazon is eating walmart's lunch. what everybody is hoping it's forming a double bottom. basically i would not do anything here except long stay long. i wouldn't sell it now and wait

to see if we hold 54 we move higher and test the highs. that being said if the government does keep -- stays shut down and the debt ceiling agreement isn't reached you can throw the chart out the window. >> i think buying -- >> last word. >> yeah. last word. i wouldn't buy it here. i would wait for the dust to settle. no sense in getting in. we may see a partial default by the u.s. government. if that occurs it's a much better opportunity to get in. i would say late november is a great time to be looking at this. >> guys, thank you very much. remember it's hard to throw a chart out of a window unless it's on something that is not dangerous to the people below. dave and andy, thank you. check out our on-line edition at talking numbers, just take that down. that's -- that's tough to see. if you're on the radio it's a giant head where i'm orange and have no ears. >> okay. let's move along and take a look at what's happening in the world of street talk. our first stock hewlett-packard.

we got new guidance today and the shares spiked. >> quickly go through and find my papers here. hp guiding to a fiscal 2014 to a higher end. get that. higher higher end possibly. they say revenue declines will moderate this year and may see pockets of growth. meg whitman says the company is performing better two years into the turnaround. 30 analysts cover the stock, the average rating is a hold. >> ralph lauren with mixed signals. near term and long term outlook. >> lauren or lauren. >> lauren. but i've heard lauren here. i try and americanize my accent so people understand what i'm talking about. >> i'm going to do this whole thing in australian, mate. >> there is no australian. >> you always sound like a -- >> it's terrible. piper jaffray cuts the stock from a neutral from an overweight citing the absence of a compelling spending environment. the stock is higher by 1.5% because she's still positive on it long term. up about 9% year to date.

>> and shinyear energy. a little french. i'm sure in english it's cheniere. >> yeah. hard company to pronounce. >> it's important to know this is cheniere not partners which is an nlp. outperformed $45 price target about ten buck upside seen for the current price. stock up almost 90% this year. what is that, 120%. >> yeah. >> over the last 12 months. >> and k 12 inc which is absolutely tanking today. i think it was like second biggest loser on the chart that i saw earlier on. >> would you say this name is getting schooled? >> getting schooled. it's a for profit education company. that's a good one. >> terrible. it's got a big gift to the short sellers delivered lower than expected results guidance last night, 80 million be lo expectations. bunch of wall street firms

downgraded the name. here's what i noticed and e-mailed on this, ceo sold 8,000 ares last week and 10,000 shares back on september 27th. >> and we've got an under the radar mover. miss stress group. >> based in the exceptional town of princeton, new jersey. provider of technology that helps protect energy and infrastructure up big, 7% on strong earnings. beat street estimates. revenue higher than expected. despite the nice spike today this stock is still down for the year about 25%. >> still ahead on "street signs," a double dose of sunshine on this very beautiful fall day. >> plus we are going inside the secret lives of the super rich. robert frank was granted access to one of the most secretive and selective clubs in new york city. speaking of selective, bill griffeth what is coming up on the "closing bell"? >> we are highly selective on "closing bell." here's what we came up with. president obama set to nominate janet yellen for fed chair. we'll have full coverage from the white house east room. and including a star-studded

package who's going to tell us what wall street really thinks about janet yellen as the next fed chair. maria is live at the stock trading floor today. an exclusive, the ceo frederick oudea. as the crisis mounts in washington someone who's been in the hot seat former house majority leader dick gephardt with us today. he has an idea or two how washington can get out of gridlock. we'll see you at the top of the hour for "closing bell" after "street signs" continues after this. stay tuned. geoff: i'm the kind of guy who doesn't like being sold to. the last thing i want is to feel like someone is giving me a sales pitch, especially when it comes to my investments. you want a broker you can trust. a lot of guys at the other firms seemed more focused on selling than their clients. that's why i stopped working at my old brokerage and became a financial consultant with charles schwab. avo: what kind of financial consultant are you looking for? talk to us today.

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ally bank. your money needs an ally. bringing it back, the disaster dujour. look at pharmaceuticals down 68%. the fda placed a hold on trials of leukemia drug after a study raised questions about its safety. the biotech sector having the worst day since 2011. nothing like that. >> pour a little sunshine on this parade because there was a drop of 70% you need a double dose of sunshine. the sunshine stock we are looking at is men's wear retailer joseph a. bank. unsolicited $2.3 billion takeover bid from men's

warehouse rejected. men's warehouse is sorry more by the way. now even though the offer is a 36% premium to the close yesterday the company says it's significantly undervaluing the company and could raise anti-trust issues. by the way, underperformed the broader market only up about 5% year to date. >> okay. it is one most of the secretive, most selective clubs in new york. for them, time is literally money. our wealth editor robert frank got an insiders look into one of their meetings and you made quite an impression at the same time into to say the least. >> you didn't get kicked out, did you? >> the group is called the weenies. >> huh? >> it's the watch enthusiasts of new york. serious watch aficionados. given the watch that i brought it's not likely they're going to invite me back. take a look. >> i think one reasons they have to be under the radar one of the first meetings i went to, there

were maybe 15 people at this nice restaurant. i looked around and realized on people's wrists probably $1 million worth of watches. keep that a little under the radar. >> i got to tell you guys, i brought something really special today, i can't really say much about it. we actually had to have security guys accompany the watch. it is handcuffed to one of our team members. >> wow. >> okay. >>. >> dragon jackie chan. the the engraved body twists around the whole inside, took 21 craftsmen to carve this and you can see all these diamonds earn the outside. >> wow. >> so not much a reaction from them there on the jackie chan

bling covered watch. >> they didn't give you a hard time? >> they were so polite they didn't say anything. this really is one of the most secretive groups. you don't just have to be wealthy and have a lot of watches you have to prove you understand the art of watches. they speak their own language. >> the art of the watch. >> the art of the watch, yes. and they have most of it is those classic watches so this was like bringing a gold lamborghini to a deucen burg convention. they were very polite but have not asked me back. >> do they have any watches with sting ray leather? when i was in singapore i did a special on some really, really high-end alternative investments and up with was watches and this is going back many years the thing did -- >> sting rayleter. >> sting ray leather. >> the new watch -- >> is that what you call that. >> i was on a yacht that had a room -- i was on a yacht that had a room covered in stingray leather. the watches today, this was a

$690,000 watch. the strap is rubber. >> entire room made of sting ray leather? >> yes. >> that's a new show. the secret lives of robert frank. >> there you go. not so secret since it's on tv. >> all over tv. national. international tv. catch the all knew secret lives of the super rich tonight at 9:00 p.m. eastern here on interga lack it tick channel cnbc. still ahead on the show, the top three energy plays to make right now and institutional investor all-star analyst is joining us next. >> imagine -- you don't have to imagine this, going from a plane directly to a porsche waiting to whisk you away. it's happening. how first-class flying is going to some ridiculous new heights.

interga lack it tick channel it's happening.

cnbc. how first-class flying is going

you're looking at the white

house. it is live, where in 20 minutes from now president obama is expected to nominate janet yellen as the next fed chair. stay with us on cnbc. it is a pretty historic position. the first woman in that position. that will be in the 100-year history of the federal reserve. we'll take you there live as it happens. >> yes. by the way, there is one central bank head that is a woman right now, that is elvira in russia. >> well, there you go. >> not the sort of weird actress from the '80s in america. a central bank head figure in russia. very progressive nation. check out crude oil. settled at three-month low 101.61. remember back a couple years ago when $100 would have been considered very expensive? we're happy it's nearing 100 buck a barrel again. this is what happens. >> happy folks, day. 2013 all-america research team list.

your next guest was listed top for three years. we invited him on, paul sanky, u.s. integrated oil analyst at deutsche bank. congratulations, by the way. i'm going to start with your buys. you've got two buys here, chevron and hess. make your chase. >> chevron has a lot of oil relative to exxon. we think the company has a better asset base on a smaller production base. we see that growing in line with the management's guidance, 25% volume growth between now and 2017, which is good for a company of this size. the key point is chevron has more brent oil leverage price compared to exxon. we're not big fans of big oil. we're underweight refining.

we like restructuring plays. the biggest play on restructuring that i cover is hess. >> a very year to date performance, up 20%. you mentioned exxonmobil. it's not far from 52-week lows and vastly underperformed the market. what's made it lag so much? >> well, a number of things. a multiyear underperformance, actually. really related to poor earnings, quite frankly, with regard to expectations. we've seen the company miss several quarters. the story behind that has been weak volumes, so the company has essentially been declining. and alongside weak volumes, rising cap ex. when we have from exxon is growing and falling returns. it's been a tough place to be. it may be turning in 2014. i'm worried about q3 earning. i think there may be an inflexion point for exxon,

particularly as cap ex is expected to fall next year. >> we have to go. have you conocophillips, a hold on that as well. thank you for joining us. up next, see what happens if you are super rich and you're running late for a flight. get ready for some airline envy.

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with my united mileageplus explorer card. i've saved $75 in checked bag fees. [ delavane ] priority boarding is really important to us. you can just get on the plane and relax. [ julian ] having a card that doesn't charge you foreign transaction fees saves me a ton of money. [ delavane ] we can go to any country and spend money the way we would in the u.s. when i spend money on this card, i can see brazil in my future. [ anthony ] i use the explorer card to earn miles in order to go visit my family, which means a lot to me. ♪ ♪ fly me to the moon >> this flying first class and then there's flying elite class.

wait until you see what one airline is doing to cater for their upper echelon flyers. phil lebeau found out. he's clearly in the elite class. he's in atlanta right now. phil? >> reporter: mandy, we're on the tarmac at atlanta-hartsfield airport because you'll see more elite passengers get this view thanks to delta. this is delta elite services. they look at their manifest, target those frequent flyers who are diamond medallion status, has over 125,000 miles. unbeknownst to those passengers, if they have a short-turn around to connect to another flight, delta shows up and takes them down to the tarmac, over to their next flight. >> it's different. it's different on these side roads and stuff, but it's a lot better than trains and walkways, jetways. >> would you pay for this kind

of service? >> i'm sure my work would. i wouldn't. but somebody would. >> reporter: she loved being picked up. delta is adding tarmac service in minneapolis and dallas this week and plans to start it soon in jfk. united has a similar service at houston and chicago o'hare. and the bottom line is this, here at delta you can't pay for this. it's not as though you're a frequent flier and call up and say, i'll pay $100 to be picked up in a porsche. it's strictly of a case, they look at the list, if they realize you have a tight connection and if you have enough frequent flier miles, they will pick you up. back to you. >> it's very cool, phil. we showed the video. have you to be a good driver. a near collision of luggage cart, airplane fuel slugging

along next to the porsche. how do the other passengers feel? they're like, where's my porsche. you know how it is in america. >> reporter: one guy we picked up, he had two coworkers, one a director, and they said, where are you going? they called and said, are you walking through the terminals? he said, no i got picked up special. as you can imagine, a few of those sitting by the person being picked up, but you can imagine, it's the very elite passengers. >> you have to up the ante. the next airline that does it with champagne, nice music, flowers -- >> keep going it. that's not everything. >> i'm not allowed to say it on -- >> chocolate. >> -- on national tv. chocolates. >> chocolates. >> ten minutes from now, president obama is expected to nominate janet yellen as the next fed chair. we'll take you there. >> next move. could be very historic. as you noted, the first woman

ever to be nominated and probably likely confirmed as first women as federal reserve chairman. most powerful person in the world. well done "street signs." "closing bell" will be the lucky show to take you there for the nomination. hi, welcome to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo. would he coming to you from society general trading floor. we're watching washington, the focus on wall street and the reaction of washington, d.c. >> i'm bill griffeth at the new york stock exchange. the president is expected to announce janet yellen as president of federal reserve. we'll bring that live to you from the east room of the white house. expert analysis coming your