they made, but how people can participate. some of the stats we have dug up -- >> mind blowing. >> are you going to be wearing your ears? they wheeled out the earless wonder all over again. >> aerodynamic. >> we're off the highs of the day but a great triple digit rally. "closing bell" will continue watching what's going on with that market right here on cnbc. thanks for watching "street signs." >> hi, everybody, we enter the final stretch. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo at the new york stock exchange along with bill griffeth. we're seeing the market surge on hopes of a new debt ceiling dealing before the debt deadline. >> right now situations are fluid. senate is planning to vote on this bill in the next couple of hours here. meanwhile, house republican leadership is meeting right now. and the expectation is that house speaker boehner will bring

the deal for a vote on the house floor after it passes through the senate, but we were just saying, a -- reuters is quoting a senior gop leadership aide, whoever that is, as saying the outcome is unclear in the house vote. john harwood's in washington with the latest details. what are you hearing? >> i'm not hearing what the outcome is unclear. in the senate you have, according to a leadership aide, republican aide tells me, 28 to 32 republicans are likely to vote yes. that is a substantial majority of their caucus. that would add momentum for the house of representatives. as of now, democratic leadership aides are expecting about 50 house republican votes. that would be more than enough to pass it, unless some hitch develops in the drafting of the legislation. as of now, the senate is looking to vote some time in the 5 p.m. to 8 p.m. hour. house sources tell me they will then take it up 8:00 to 9:00 and hope to get off the floor by 11 p.m., which would allow time for

the bill to get dot president. if they can stick to those schedules, if nothing unexpected pops up, that's where we are. house republicans, as you just indicated, are meeting right now. and they will take the temperature to figure out where they are. >> thanks, john. in anticipation of all that, we have a big rally on wall street today. we're off the highs, however. we were up 210 points, bill. >> a couple times. >> a couple times. markets surging nonetheless as that debt deal nears. 180-turn around on capitol hill and wall street. this is the beige book reports growth load in 12 districts. we to want bring in market experts to break it down as we see the dow up 156 points. amy woo, rob morgan, peter anderson and our own rick santelli. amy, love to kick it off with you. tell me what you're seeing in terms of futures. do you think this rally has

legs? >> it's a good question, maria. i think it's a question everyone is asking. like bill said, it's quite fluid from yesterday to today. we saw very sharp drop in volatility levels. that said, that's due to the rally. investors are still keeping their hedges on. what i mean by that is people who had had on hedges that were expiring october or november, they're rolling them, so they know february's still going to be a key point, even if we kick the can down the road and the options market is still seeking protection there. >> rick santelli. welcome back. we missed you yesterday. today was the day the government would auction off one-month t-bills scheduled to expire after all this nonsense, but the demand was pretty good. some brave souls willing to step up, didn't you? >> yes. one-month bill, 189 cash management bill, all were sold. demand was pretty good. as i look up at the board, we've seen some huge reversals on some of the seasoned one-month bills that are already out there,

especially the one maturing tomorrow and at the end of the month. now, there could still be a fly in the ointment, but as we look at treasuries bill, we've fallen eight basis points off the high yield and fives. eight basis points in tens. somewhat reverting back to the mid-260 range starting on the 24th of september. one side bar is that as interest rates fell, dollar index pretty much gave back all of its gains which makes you wonder what its prognosis is. my final comment isn't even in my beat. the fact is not that we're at the highs of the days in stocks but all-time highs in index like s&p. i think the fate of the equity market after this kick the can deal is signed may not be as aggressive to the upside as some may think. >> what do you think, peter? are you putting money to work in this market or not? >> i think this time tomorrow

we'll have a very different song to sing. i think we'll see real strength marks , maria. the biggest issue right now is whether or not you can stay the course. it's very, very hard for people. we have a lot of investors, clients, asking what to do with all this volatility, this uncertainty. i think it's going to be what we call a new normal. people have to get used to the fact that even if we delay this, out three or four months, we'll be groundhog day all over again and analyzing this in a cyclical manner. i think you have to get used to the fact that will be noise sadly and pick the best stocks, best bonds, whatever can you, whatever environment you're in. and i think this is still a little bit of a messy environment but through tomorrow when we get more clarity, i think we'll have more green lights ahead. i also think earnings season, that's nothing to shake a stick at. i think we'll have good results. >> rob morgan, what do you

think? you're a buyer in this market. do you look past all the noise here? do you see a clear sky here? >> i have been a buyer. i continue to be a buyer of stocks. but at the same time, you know, the earning season hasn't been just gang busters here. the start of it's been a little lackluster. and i think the government shutdown has masked that a little bit. at the same time, stocks are still expensive and technically the market looks sound. retail investor hasn't gotten back into the stock market in a big way. that's coming. >> do you think companies will use the shutdown as an excuse to guide lower? >> oh, yeah. absolutely. >> oh, absolutely, yeah. i think we even saw it today in black and decker's earnings, i believe. >> it's like the weather. >> it's always been the weather. right now it's the government shutdown. there's a new excuse that's been put out there for it. >> that's common with these earnings reports. so far a lot of the earnings have been better than expected. after the close we get ibm.

we're still waiting on revenue. do you think we turn our attention now to the earning season once we have a deal in place or will there still be uncertainty given the fact we'll only be dealing with this for another six months. what do you think, amy? >> in terms of earning season, at least auction investors i've been speaking to, they're selective on how they're focusing on it. i have seen upside interest in call buying and home builders, reits, as well as consumer discretionary but on an overall level, they're still quite keen to hedge, quite keen to look for overhead mooshgt level. >> i think the biggest takeaway from all of this -- the biggest takeaway from all of this is that i think a lot of portfolio managers will have to retool the way they're looking at the markets, the metrics they're using. volatility is here to stay. i think that will cause people to reestimate the kind of metrics they use to determine what's rich and what's cheap.

>> rick, let's focus on some of those other markets you mentioned before. you know, we focus so much on stocks and bonds, the dollar what it has done. that's a proxy for how foreigners view us right now, international investors, and gold interestingly took off. not a huge rally but it did take off as soon as the senate announced they had a deal. what do you make of those markets? >> i know this is going to be popular conventional wisdom, but if i put myself in the role of a long-term holder of u.s. debt, i personally would like a little interaction and a little push back by somebody regarding the long-term debt outlook, knowing this past 2013 fiscal year we had a smaller budget deficit than in the last five. it's still a very large one and would still add $165 billion to the national debt, hence we need to raise the debt ceiling. i think it's a negative if we

don't have a little messiness because we're kicking the biggest campbell's soup can down the road and that seems to be the biggest norm. >> as he said. >> thanks, everybody. >> it occurs to me, there's this inverse relationship that's developed. wall street is near an all-time high as washington hits a new all-time low, don't you think? quite an arbitrage. headed to the close with 50 minutes left. art cashin was signaling we have a slight upward buy. not huge. would he keep an eye on it with the dow up 157 points. >> we'll get the take of our next guest, how is blackrock ceo larry fink dealing with the dysfunction in d.c.? here's here in an exclusive coming up. >> all eyes may be on washington but we're not forgetting about key earnings reports. ibm coming out tonight, ebay, american express also. we'll have instant analysis and reaction to all those numbers later on the "closing bell."

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so, rally day on wall street as washington gets set to vote on this bill that comes out of the senate. bob pisani is here with me.

we had a 200-point gain a couple of times. you wonder what the market will do after they pass these. >> the high has passed after the deal was announced, gone lower. sell on the news sort of. there's committee considerable worry there's damage to consumer confidence. the beige book came out and specifically cited several different surveys, people they contacted cited concerns about slowdown in consumer confidence. black & decker stanley works came out, lowered their full year guidance. down 14%. specifically citing in part hits to the consumer and some of the similar names like masco and danaher. this is not a fantasy. the big worry is, is this an excuse to more aggressively lower fourth quarter earnings. they always come in high and come down. but they come down to middle levels. we're expecting 4%, 5% increases

maybe. if it goes to zero, we have major problems. if earning estimates go to zero for the fourth quarter, the market is not prepared for that. >> washington will have to -- no, wall street will have to prioritize. the fed has been a big factor in the rally. we've seen in the last few years with all the quantitative easing, fundamentals played a backseat. as that recedes, will the feds be the ease for this market or will they focus on the fundamentals that may, in fact, deteriorate? >> no one believes there will be tapering even in the month of december. we'll relive this whole drama again in january if this deal comes along. >> it will happen again. >> there will be concerns about consumer confidence and perhaps spending over christmas. remember, people last year, they got their refund checks, got it delayed. walmart said that's a problem. people will be aware of that again this year to relive it. i think that's the most disappointing thing about this. we went through all the drama for the status quo.

essentially we're back to the status quo. not even agreement on spending cuts yet. >> let's see what our next guest says about that, maria. >> corporate executives have been using positions of leadership to push elected leaders to make a long-term deal on the debt ceiling. my next guest is outraged at washington's inability to make a deal. joining me in an exclusive is larry fink, ceo of blackrock. nice to have you on the program. thank you. >> hello, maria. >> the clock is ticking on the debt ceiling. what is your thought, avert the treasury default? >> i never thought we would eventually default. i thought we would come to the edge. here we are at the edge. from what i know about what is being discussed, they'll be pushing out the c.r. to mid-january and debt ceiling to

mid-february. i want to hear what the narrative is. i want to hear if there is some bipartisan cooperation between the two parties. to me that will determine the outlook in terms of the economy. if it feels like this is just kicking the can down the road, it's going to have a lasting damage to consumer confidence, lasting damage to ceo behavior in terms of job creation. and, importantly, it's going to create a marginal change in foreign investors' behavior and investing in u.s. treasuries. you put that all together, it probably leads to a pretty weak fourth quarter. and most importantly, it may drive a weakening into the first half of next year. if it's -- if we find that there is a cooperative process in which we can see a true resolution in terms of tax reform, we can eliminate the sequester. then we don't have to go through this process of if they are or are not going to do something

with the debt ceiling. i've been in this business for 37 years. the first 35 years of business, no one even heard of a debt ceiling. it was automatically passed. and to use this as an instrument, it is an instrument of destruction. and it's not what we elected these officials to do. >> amen to that. you're absolutely right. >> but more importantly, maria, we -- i've spent a lot of time overseas in the last few weeks talking to so many people. we were looked upon as a principal nation. we are the great democracy of the world. we're showing the world, maybe we're not as principled because we're willing to have a narrative about the debt ceiling and default. we're showing that democracy is not functioning as well as it was meant to be. >> that was my next question. i know you speak to a lot of deep-pocketed, big investors all around the globe, governments included, of course. but some of those large

investors, heads of banks and large institutional players from japan or the mid east, throughout asia, really, what are they saying in terms of investing in the usa? are you feeling that they are becoming reluctant or a little more reluctant than you've heard in the past? >> well, first of all, i would say there's a profound sadness. they looked at the united states as a beacon of hope. they looked to the united states as a great place to have a secured investment. now they're raising questions, are those foundational principles correct going forward? and that's what i'm frightened of. the answer s i don't see any overt change in behavior yet. but i'm being asked questions related to this. it may lead to changes in behavior. >> are you seeing the damage already taking place? in other words, companies sitting on cash? these last 16 days of the

government shutdown, do you think there's already been damage done? you already said, probably will lead to a weak fourth quarter. how do you figure? >> well, i think for the private sector to operate, we need to feel comfortable that we can invest for the long term. and with all this uncertainty about how we are going to navigate a debt ceiling, navigate our businesses being impaired by this conversation. so, yes, i think it is going to have an impact in job creation. i think it's going to defer investments and planting equipment. and i think it's going to force the federal reserve to push off the tapering at the very least to march, but maybe as late as june, until you see better understanding of what this is going to have to do related to the economy. >> so, no tapering in 2013. you're talking march. you're talking in june of 2014. how does that change the way you invest? how should that dictate behavior from your average investor out

there if, in fact, we're not going to see tapering until march or june as you predict or suggest? >> well, a, it leads to a very benign interest rate environment which is a good foundation for equities, but depending on earnings from corporations, you know, it may lead to a view that the equity market's a little overpriced at these levels. we'll wait to see to see the fourth quarter results. but i don't think you're going to see an elevated interest rate environment any time soon. so, we're sit hearing between 26 5 1 and 275 in the tenure. we could be in this range for four to six months. what is very clear to me, you're seeing some investors celek wits here because they've had huge profits and they're moving back into bonds and just earning a constant return. so, in our earnings announcement, we talked about it at the end of the third quarter. we saw outflows and s&p bonds.

we're still seeing in the beginning of the fourth quarter. i don't believe this is a long-term trend but we're seeing behavior back into bonds. >> let me ask you this. we heard fidelity making changes, saying, we're not going to hold onto any matures going up against that debt ceiling. what's your position in terms of government fixed income and have you made any changes in terms of what you hold at blackrock? >> well, we had maybe 12 different work streams going at once, just being prepared, if there was a default. so, we did work streams related to counterpart risk in terms of what is the appropriate collateral in swaps. what -- if the government defaulted, what does that mean for municipal debt? obviously, money market funds, we looked at maturities of our bills. we did a great deal of preparation related to this

possibility. and hopefully all this work was done for naught but as a fiduciary of our clients' money, we had to be prepared. i know there's a lot of narrative about the bills in terms of money market funds, but, maria, the work that was entailed to making sure we were prepared for a default was -- was exhaustive in so many different businesses that blackrock touches on behalf of our clients. >> it sounds like you don't think that was to big of a deal in term of what we heard from fidelity. >> no. i think what they did was appropriate because the last thing you want to do is be known as a money market fund that had bylsma touring and didn't get paid. so i'm not suring it was bad or good. as i said, we did more than just looking at what our bill position was. we look at our collateral positions when we used government as swaps for collateral or many other things. what i'm trying to say is the media only looked at one

component of what would have happened if there was a default. >> i see. >> the default would have touched so many elements of our business. >> i see. let me move onto earnings. what a quarter for you, larry. the firm passing $4 trillion in assets under management this quarter. you saw earnings up 15% in profit for the quarter. characterize business. your etf business was very strong one again. what drove the quarter for blackrock? >> i think it's our refocusing on performance. it is our continuation of building our brand. and between our brand and build out of performance now, we've had a more lengthy dialogue with our clients related to strategy, what should they be doing with our money. we are spending more time talking to our clients about longevity and the impact on their portfolios. so, i believe we are just -- we're having better, deeper

conversations with our clients. they're looking for blackrock to provide that type of information. and because of the performance and because of our elevated brand recognition, we're earning more business than we have in the past. >> can you tell us where the flow was? did you see money move into europe? did you see money move into emerging markets? where was the flow in etf land? >> so, in etfs we saw great outlows in the second quarter and saw a rebound of inflows in the third quarter. since all the conversations about the u.s. and the debt ceiling, we saw some very big flows in european equities. as i said previously, we saw more flows into debt, into the unconstrained debt market. >> we'll leave it there. nice to have you on the program. thanks so much. >> thanks, maria. >> larry fink joining us, ceo, chairman at blackrock. >> a little strengthening heading to the close. dow is up 175 points.

a couple times today we were up about 200 points. >> the market, moving higher on hopes a deal will finally get done. coming up, our all-star investing panel will tell you if this market will really take off once a deal is approved and announced. >> or not. >> or not. >> also, how is this mess in washington affecting the business world? we have a full panel. listen to this, the ceos of general motors, honeywell and bmc software all weigh in on the "closing bell." those dreams, there's just no way we're going to let them die. ♪ like they helped millions of others. by listening. planning. working one on one. that's what ameriprise financial does. that's what they can do with you. that's how ameriprise puts more within reach. ♪

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in washington, house gop members are meeting right now to discuss this senate bill, trying to avert the debt crisis. wall street stocks have been soaring in anticipation of the deal with the dow up 167 points right now. dominic chu breaking down some of the big movers for us today. dom? >> we begin with veeva, nearly doubling in value. they are a producer of cloud-based software and drugmaker. and adv announced it will buy general parts for $2 billion in cash. they own the carquest brand. regenron, when used by itself the drug cholesterol drug cuts bad cholesterol almost in half. stanley black & decker cut

fourth quarter due to government shutdown, so stanley black & decker taking it on the cheek. back over to you. >> thank you so much. this market is higher, we have 30 minutes before the "closing bell" sounds. up 168 points on the dow jones industrial average. >> we think we have a deal. it's all over but the voting now but anything is possible. that's the deadline to the debt default tonight, but we may have a deal and the votes will be set to -- we'll talk to senator johnny isakson about all of this coming up. ♪

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welcome back. a deal to end the government fiscal pra fiscal paralysis is on the table. the club for growth is urging all house and senate members to vote no on this plan. >> but it is a deal, albeit a temporary measure, lasting only through january. so, what's the plan for the longer term and more importantly, has the damage to our reputation in the global economy already been done? let's talk about it with president of the committee for responsible budgets, also member

of the committee to fix the debt chaired by simpson and bowles and johnny isakson is a republican from georgia and member of the senate finance committee. thank you for joining us. senator, i'll start with you, if i may, sir, do you have a sense of the timing of the vote on the bill? >> i think the senate will vote some time early evening after 6:00. and the house will follow shortly thereafter. >> are there meetings scheduled in the meantime? what's going on? >> well, the senate, the republicans met at 11:00 today and again at 12:30. i think you'll see a very strong vote in favor of it coming out of the senate republicans. and i expect the same out of the house democrats. probably be an 80/20 vote tonight. >> mia, give us your reaction to this deal. >> thank goodness we have a deal, obviously. but when the best thing can you say about a deal is, we didn't blow up our country, you know we have a problem. it's not a problem with the deal. it really is important we pass this deal. it's a problem with on you we're

governing from crisis to crisis right now. we need to use the next eight to ten weeks to focus on the problem and start to deal with the federal debt. >> club for growth said no, they'd vote no. what about you guys, simpson and bowles and company, would you vote for it? >> have you to vote for it this. we can't believe we're at the last minute, the government is talking about defalling, still closed, instead of talking about reforming tax code and entitlements. we need to clearly get away from the debt ceiling and then focus on the real issues. >> what about that senat, senat. when you see this moving from crisis to crisis and inability to get anything done, do you see this as repercussions? do you recognize this as sort of a stalemate in business and creating more problems than the economy needs to have? what's your take on this crisis to crisis and how do you fix it? >> look, i ran a business for 22 years. uncertainty is the worst thing you can have when running a

business. we certainly aren't running our company like a business. we have to get back to the business of budgeting, appropriate rating, doing oversight and controlling our spending and our long-term debt and deficit. we need a wake-up call. hopefully this last three weeks has been exactly that. let's get back to doing business the old fashioned way -- >> you can say it but how do you do it? how are we going to come together, then? let's talk about real fixes in terms of the budget and spending and revenue? >> especially when you consider we went through this whole thing in august of '11, we had more wrangling and our debt was downgraded and under the threat of another downgrade right now. what is it going to take? >> two things. in august '11 we came out with an increase in the debt ceiling and budget control act to reduce spending $1.2 trillion over a decade. that's number one. number two, senator shaheen and i have introduced bipartisan

legislate to save money, stop the waste. we have to return to fiscal discipline in america. >> is that going to happen, maya? >> i agree we have to do those things. what we also have to do, and the senator has done a lot of work on this, we have to start working on specific entitlement reforms. we need to figure out how to save social security, how to fix medicare. we have to look at means testing, cost sharing, retirement ages, fixing the way we calculate for inflation. and on the tax side, we have to reform our tax code and we have to think about how to generate more revenue. we have to start talking about specific, hard choices. your question is a good one. what's going to make them do it this time when they haven't before? i'm worried, and we need to put a lot of pressure on them to quit this cycle of lurching from one last-minute sickle to another. it's really hurting our country.

>> senator, what would be your solution in terms of getting your hands deep and dirty, in terms of actually attacking entitlements, looking at the tax code. what are your solutions? >> 68% of our debt and deafcies are entitlements. we have to means test social security. adjust medicare age for elginlt. look at medicaid and go to chain cpi. look at medicaid. entitlements is where the money is. that's where the solutions are. that's where we have to turn to. it's going to take tough decisions but it's time to do it. >> last question, let me quickly play a sound bite. warren buffett was on our air this morning. he talked about what this has done to our international reputation. here's what he said. >> we've been building a reputation for proper fiscal behavior with our currency, at

least, for 237 years, the united states has. f the world in the serve process. people all over the world hold our paper. so, to give up -- or to do anything that damages a 237-year period of good behavior is idiocy. >> senator, have we damaged that reputation? >> no, but we've come up the trespass and almost jumped off the cliff. we can never do that. mr. buffett is exactly right. >> we just did it. >> no, the cliff's not till tonight. >> in other words, we came up to the cliff. >> you've got to learn that lesson. it's the wrong thing to do. no way to run a railroad. no way to run a country. >> thank you for your thoughts. >> senator, let you get to the vote. >> good to see you, maya. >> over to dominic chu for a quick market flash. >> check out shares of office max and office depot. they agreed back in february to

merge. they're still facing regulatory issues for clearance. but there is some at least bidding up by investors, expecting this deal might go through. speculation, a deal might go through. sending both of those stocks, omx and odp towards session highs. bill, keep those in mind as we head toward the closing bell. back to you. >> heading toward the close. 20 minutes left in the session. now we're going sideways. very strong this morning. pull back this afternoon. especially after the beige book came out. now we're going sideways into the close of the dow. >> now we wait. >> yes, we do. >> investors seem bullish washington will strike a deal on the debt ceiling before the deadline tonight. is it time to buy into this is market ahead of that or should you be taking a wait and see approach? top money managers weigh in. >> earnings, remember those, ibm, american express, ebay set to report after the bill. and jackie has a preview of the

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welcome back. the big focus tonight on washington. we want to not forget we're in the heart of earning season. jackie deangeles has a report of

three reports investors need to know about after the bell. >> hi. let's start with ibm. expectations are for earnings of share for $3 .96 on revenue of $24.88 billion. that's 9% in earnings growth year over year. investors will be watching services backlog. last quarter it was up 3%. also the software business division looking for an increase in that group of about 6% as well. moving on to ebay, analysts expecting earnings of 63 cents on $3.91 billion in revenue. the key issue for ebay, revenue from the payments division, paypal, is supposed to be growing twice as fast as marketplace division, and guidance is in focus for this company. how they expect the fourth quarter shopping days to go. american express, expectations of $1.22 on revenue of $8.19 billion. investors want to know how cardholders' spending and

payment trends came in last quarter, as the economy is slowly improving, but also as holidays are fast approaching. fundamentals still important to this market, right, guys? >> absolutely. >> probably the ibm report will set the tone. more important, setting the tone for the market is going to be that deal, no doubt about it. >> absolutely. >> we're in the final stretch. a market up 167 points on the dow. >> question is, what happens tomorrow. does the market continue higher after we've got a deal presumably or do they sell on the news after the votes tonight? major headwinds facing stocks. we'll talk about it coming up. >> don't miss "closing bell" ceo congressional summit, what needs to happen to restore confidence. coming up after this.

welcome back. we may have a verdict in the mark cuban trial. andrea with details. >> reporter: the jury began deliberating at 9 a.m. here in dallas, texas. six hours later, they walked back into the courtroom, clearing mark cuban of all charges. the s.e.c. claimed he dumped his

shares of moma.com after he got a private call from moma.com ceo about a new offering but mark cuban said from the beginning he did nothing wrong, nothing was private. all the information he had was not confidential. he did nothing wrong. that's why he so openly sold 600,000 shares, worth about $8 million. after the jury came back in and said what they thought, had made their decision, mark was clearly relieved. he's been very calm throughout the whole process. i rode down in the elevator with everyone, giving everyone high-fives, very happy about the outcome. but the s.e.c. does not go to trial with am high-profile cases because many of the high-profile defendants typically want to settle, not pay extra money to go to court. in mark's case he said, look, i have a point to prove. i want to shed light on who the s.e.c. really is, and that's why he decided to make this run. it turns out, he made the right

move. i'll send it back to you. >> that was pocket change that he was liable for. for him at least. >> absolutely. >> as you were saying, he was on jay leno last night. >> couldn't have been too worried. about ten minutes left in the trading session here. the dow's starting to gain some strength. up 182 points. joining us right now to give us their sense of the market, christine short and a man that i -- you may be the first guest i ever interviewed 53 years ago when we started in this business. >> before either of us had medicare cards. >> how are you? >> i'm good. >> what do you make of -- you have the international perspective. you go to asia a lot with your economic activity. have we done damage on our reputation internationally with all this debt ceiling nonsense going on? >> yes, we have. we have tilted the board toward assets into other poorts of the world. america right now dominates the core of that. if you were talking to a chinese

leader or people in the gulf, yeah, they'll be less interested in holding treasuries on the margin -- >> but they're still going to buy them. >> you have to own what exists. >> they're there. you'll own them. >> alternatives to the u.s.? >> yeah, very little. very little. they'll be there. it will be there, but long term they're doing things like creating a long-term market for rmb. >> ibm up next. earnings is the next focus. >> it's expected to be 3.1%. the good news is addition. >> that's not great. >> not great. down the past few days. we had a flurry of decent reports this morning so it bumped us back up. of course, it's down from the 6% we expected at the beginning of the quarter. not great. the good news this quarter is we're seeing top line growth. revenue is expected to be 3 .7%. >> i've heard -- i guess it depends on their point of view and what they're holding right now. various characterizations of this earnings reporting season

so far. how would you characterize it? >> we usually see an uptick in estimates. we didn't see it this year. we saw 3% when alcoa reported and got as low as 2.67%. out of the gate we had negative reports from yum, costco and a variety of other companies. right now the beat rate for earnings is at 59%. it's a little lower than historical average of 62%. running a little low as far as beats are considered. >> putting reputational issues aside, john, are you seeing practical impact in terms of weak fourth quarter, weak guidance? larry fink basically said, this will translate into a weak fourth quarter. has some damage already been done, away from reputation? >> the number you can see, bank loans to business have been flat, so that makes me think you're looking at a weak fourth quarter. once this deal is done, people

will look behind and see the fed is still there. qe is still there. tapering's still there. when that's all gone, $3 trillion of bank reserves to figure out what to do with. there's fear in the word world. that fear drives people initially into treasuries, which is the irony of the whole thing. >> all we've done with this bill today is just move the goalpost down the road. >> yeah, you bought six months. >> so, when there is talk, serious talk, he said naively, about spending in this country, doesn't that slow things down anyway? >> well, the slowdown is the fact that nobody can make a plan and pull the trigger on spending any money so they're just waiting. this six-month delay will make them wait even more. weak capital spending in the fourth quarter. you still have weak asia. europe is flat. the gulf region, money is trying to move out into the dollar. that's some of the bond buying we've seen. the big, big story is still, what's the fed going to do, new chairman? they're not going to sell $3 trillion worth of bonds, which

means things may end up back where you and i first met, in the end of the 1970s, where you have higher rates and inflation numbers to worry about. >> probably a bit away from now. >> a bit away. >> you're talking about rock bottom rates. >> you know, black stone, apollo, oak tree, those kind of stocks, the way you ride it up in the beginning. >> thank you both for joining us here. we'll go back to dominic chu for a quick market flash. >> check out united rentals, uri, those shares spiking. they reported earnings before the actual closing bell. the bottom line for this, the revenues came in in line. earnings per share better than analyst estimates. ceo of the company also saying they saw robust demand for their products. also they expect nonresidential construction trends to trend higher in 20 14. so, those shares, bill, up by about 4%. back over to you on the floor.

>> the upside not by much but the dice is there. we are strengthening into the close of the day. we'll have the closing countdown in a few minutes. >> we were up 200. after the bell, ceo of honeywell and bmc software will say how the shutdown and debt ceiling debt impacted their companies. you're watching the "closing bell" on cnbc.

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three minutes left. we're strengthening into the close. >> high of the day. >> let's show you what that looks like visually. those on radio, take our word for it. rally on the open this morning, we figured out the senate had a bill they were going to vote on, going sideways ever since, heading back to the high of the day with a gain of 200 point or 1.3%. then we got earnings after the bell tonight. some of these could move the market tomorrow. most especially ibm. you got american express, which is up 1.25% right for you. looking for a profit of $1.22 on revenue of 1.$1.89 billion. and ebay is down right now. looking for a profit of 63 cents on $3.91 billion. that ibm revenue number will be

a big number as they provided forward guidance. that's been a killer the last few quarters. >> particularly it's been very tough to move the needle on revenue at ibm, but having said that, they are a cash-generating machine and they give it all back to shareholders on ibm. announce a buyback and dividends as well. alan is with us, talking about this market. what did you think about the light volume today. 200-point rally on volume of -- what have we got here? 565 million at the new york. >> very light for what we should have. we noticed throughout this debacle, even on the sell side, investors are sitting back. they're not taking this serious at all. staying on the sidelines, not getting involved. we're seeing it again today. they're not even involved. great move on the upside. >> you have been a dip buyer as the market went lower. >> we were buying on the dips. >> what do you think the market does tomorrow? i mean, i've heard some say that will be a very telling moment. once we get this out of the way, presuming the senate and house both vote favorably for this

bill tonight and the president signs it, we get that behind us for a little while. what do you think happens tomorrow? >> i think we're back to wall street, not pennsylvania avenue. we're back to here. janet yellen will be confirmed, schwarzenegger 8 5 billion a month coming back into the market. as you mentioned, earnings have been pretty good. up about 2%, 1.5%, 2% so far, so in general i think the market will rally up. >> we'll see what ibm has for us in a few minutes. alan, thanks. bill, see you tomorrow. "closing bell" up next in the next few minutes. >> hi. >> we've been hearing numbers have been coming down, expectations after each report because they just -- the revenue has been pretty light. >> still slow growth, though. we're still growing 1.4%. still on the growth side. even though it's slow, they're still growing. >> thanks very much. dow up 200 points. we are going to finish on the high of the day on a day when some people were scratching their heads saying, why is wall street vrallying, we don't havea

deal yet? we could have a deal by midnight tonight and we'll see what happens tomorrow. that's members of congress on the second hour of "closing bell" with maria bartiromo. i'll see you tomorrow. it is 4:00 on wall street. do you know where your money is? welcome back to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo on the floor of the new york stock exchange. stocks soaring on wall street, hopes of renewed debt deal. take a look where we're settling out. as money came in the last minutes of trading. pushing the dow up to 15,369. volume was just over. 610 million shares traded at the big board. not as much volume as you would like to see on a day we see a 200-point rally. s&