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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  October 18, 2013 5:00pm-5:31pm EDT

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years is september 11, when covered in soot, i covered the terrorist attack from here, just a few short blocks from the carnage. the resilience this nation showed personified when the fire department and rescue workers rang the opening bell on monday, september 17th. for me this is the proudest of my days as we all told the world, we are down, but we are not out. and we will rise again. thank you to my audience, all of you for being with me these last two decades, it's been an honor i hope to continue for decades to come. thanks for being with me today on closing bell. and for enduring all of that salute for 20 years at cnbc, that does it tonight. have a fantastic weekend i'll see you sunday. don't go anywhere, fast money begins right now. have a good weekend. >> live from nasdaq markets in times square, this is fast money. america's post market show, i'm melissa lee. it is total request friday. so be sure to tweet us at cnbc
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fast money, send us questions, comments. we have brian kelly, josh brown and guy adami. let's get to our top story, technology. it is all about the nasdaq, the nasdaq 100 having its best week in three months. the next thought for the composite seems to be 4,000, we haven't seen that since the dot com bubble 13 years ago. and the story getting us there, google. it's at an all time high hitting over $1,000 a share today. larry page combined $5.7 billion on google stock. should investors keep riding this tech train? >> i don't think you can ride the google train now. some people disagree. but when the stock is up, google is up 10% today, all time high on ten times normal volume. it was excellent. but i don't think this magnitude excellent quarter. my sense is if you're the trader and you have to take some profits, and look for pullback. i think you'll get it. i think you'll see pullback down
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in the low 900s. >> aren't we now pricing growth? finally we perhaps turned the corner in terms of the mobile monetization story. therefore, it's rerated as a growth stock. >> i think that's right. there will be a point in time when everybody says they won't be able to do this again. they can't repeat it. i'm more with guy. i like the story here. they are the one company, the one knock on them has been you can't monetize the mobile. they are executing and doing well. but from portfolio management sense, you need to take a little off the table. the day will come, we have a ticker up there saying, what's wrong with google? that's the day you buy it. >> for now, jocker brown is rocket fuel going to boost google? >> no one is ever going to come on tv and say this out loud. but i'll tell you something that is as true as time. stocks breaking 100 -- this is a really important point. this is behavioral finance 101.
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stocks breaking 100 typically continue to move. and why shouldn't the same thing apply to 1,000? we just saw with price line, the psychology is this. you don't want to sell a position that is over 100, because you know you'll have a hard time buying it back. so they tend to hang on to these stocks. and it's mostly institutional money at this point. i would not be shocked to see this continue on to $1200. >> which could happen. but this is not a vacuum, we talked about google on this show for a long time, and we've been pretty steadfast in our belief that the stock was going higher. but my only point is, and josh could be 100% right. just in terms of trading 101, you have to have some discipline after a day like today, given the run we've had in the s & p over the last couple weeks. >> you're right. if it's over 1,000, a 30% gain in a short period of time. >> does share price matter? that's $53 billion in market cap. goog sl a multiple of that, a much different story, we're talking large next at this point. >> google is trading 28 times
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last year's earnings, it's more like an 18 or 19 times on this coming year's earnings. so this is not the dot com era, when the s & p tech was trading at 96 times earnings. these companies are trading under 30. it's really not that egregious. >> it's not a bubble territory in the sense like what we had with the dot com. but in general, you know, what i'm saying, if today, if you're not in google at all, don't go out monday morning and buy google. wait for that day to come down. you want to hold it, take offer a third, go ahead. it's just not a time to be initiating a position. >> here's a question. if you have 1,000 bucks to burn would you buy google stock or something else? wall street by the way of course universally bullish on google. there goes a penguin jumping into the water. josh brown, what do you say, 1,000 bucks. >> buy it or not buy it? >> where would you put it? >> oh, wow. solar. >> solar. >> yeah. solar is what the information technology revolution is now, solar is probably what happens in the energy space over the
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next ten years. you still have companies that are being treated as something other than what they are. that's an area of tech that is more interesting. >> 1,000 bucks. >> i'd take you to dinner, then the other 980 bucks i'd pocket. i would -- i'd go bio tech, and heavy in the energy space, conoco phillips, some combination of those. >> i think you have to go energy space. i said the other day, i think the u.s. market was untouchable. it's rolled up here. it's tough. go to natural gas. i think people are missing the fact that a lot of individuals residential usage is coming on line. >> nat gas stocks? >> if you want to do apache, conoco phillips, those are fine. or do nat gas, ung. >> on the topic of technology, big tech earnings on tap, microsoft, and apple is expected to unveil a new ipad. netflix by the way, that's expected to move, what 8% up or
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down. so a huge volatility here. >> huge volatility. i think we've done a nice job in netflix, maybe we didn't get it all the way right on that little dip we had. i thought we'd see more down side. like other names, we've talked about this now for at least 200 hours, if not more. netflix. i think the story still remains real. but i think getting -- again, to that point, if you're going on monday, getting ahead -- in front of earnings to me is suicidal. i can't tell you what that 8% is going to be. i think over time, the stock will levitate. but coming next week, i have no idea. >> all right. it is total request friday. we are incorporating tweets into the show. would you look at owning time warner cable regardless of the netflix possibilities? or just go with netflix? >> no. i would go with time warner. i like the idea of the content providers. they have a lot of things they are able to do. it's not that i don't like netflix, given the choice, netflix had a tremendous run. i'd rather go time warner. >> one more question, josh. on microsoft, microsoft earnings out next week would you be a
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buyer of microsoft ahead of earnings or under any circumstance? >> you know, there's a big buy back in dividend. they could always surprise. because expectations aren't high. i only have so many dollars to allocate. i'm not excited about the company. i don't think it's cheap enough to say it's a value play. so no, i would skip it. >> all right. let's get a broader read on earnings season. joining us is kate moore at jpmorgan. great to have you with us. >> good afternoon. >> do you think the earnings season will come through so the rally will be supported going to year's end. >> we're not looking for blockbuster earnings in the third quarter. we will focus on what happens in fourth quarter earnings and the guidance we get when we start to report beginning part of next year. we want to hear companies start talking about 2014 cap x budgets and plans, i don't know that we get that during this reporting season largely because of the shenanigans in d.c. >> shenanigans in january and february again. >> yeah. but we don't think we'll get the same kind of brink man ship we had in the last few weeks largely because of the election
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year next year. >> does it scare you that the ibms, caterpillars, bank of america, have been replaced by some of these netflix, priceline, goog snl does that trouble you? or just the evolution of the market? >> we need to see sector rotation throughout the year. there was a period last year, everyone loved tech, everyone sold off those i think to buy into financials. we've seen this happen a couple times throughout the year. our expectation is we need to see kind of broad based earnings to get that next leg higher. and we want to see change in leadership, i think in 2014 as well. more cap x, more industrials, more tech spending, that's what we're keeping an eye on. >> you talked about cap x. so we haven't really seen an upsurge. >> we have not. >> what makes you think that a ceo after what's gone on over the last two weeks is going to go, you know what, let's build that new factory, let's hire 10,000 more workers? >> we are seeing spending pick up, fed surveys, cap x intentions in each of those, and
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capital goods new orders, we saw that tick up in those few months going into the fed meeting and those few months before this d.c. shenanigans. we want to see businesses feel more comfortable spending. i don't know that they are going to communicate that to us in the near term. even if they need to in order to continue to grow. >> so what sectors at this point do you like? >> we like financials. we like tech. we also like health care. sectors i think you guys were just mentioning a moment ago. but frankly we like equities broadly. i know a lot of people are worried about valuations, whether or not the equity markets is expensive at these points. we would say you can't think about equities relative to equities. you think about equities relative to fixed income. alternatives we have in the investment universe. that's the decision we're making at this point. >> what's your take on tech valuations, we were having this discussion about technology overall, nasdaq 13 year highs here. what's your sense of where we are? >> they are not as cheap as they were six months ago.
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it still is not near its peak valuation. so we think there's room to go in specific stories but we're moving much more into a stock pick being market even if the big macro drivers will be i think the decision points for investors. >> so you were just talking about looking at equities relative to other asset classes. so that starts to scare me. that's where we get into areas of we change the valuation metric. that's what we did during the housing bubble, that's what we did during the 1999 tech bubble. so why is it different? if we're starting to say, equities are undervalued relative to soybeans, you know, at what point do we get into a bubble? why is it different? >> we're not big traders of soy at this point. we're thinking of equities relative to fixed income and some of the opportunities we have in alternative space. we are constructive on u.s. and global growth in 2014 and on. we think rates are going to continue to rise albeit not at the pace over the last five or six months. if you have that expectation
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that we can three handle on the ten year you have to believe returns will be much harder to get. we want to be selective. we think exwits, especially if we get a follow through, call it 5 to 6%. maybe a half point of multiple expansion in 2014 can outperform fixed income. >> kate, great to see you. thanks for coming by. let's get some more of the tweets out there. because it is after all, again, total request friday. so this one is for you. >> i love this. >> can the all time highs last? open ended question. >> what does that mean? >> it's from the twitter sphere. >> see, what's funny about that, by definition, they won't last, either it goes higher or lower. that's what you go to a jesuit school, that's the answer you get. >> go to elementary school, and you learn that. >> hogwash. >> big movers of the week. ebay. >> they disappointed on guidance.
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the truth is the stock has been in a 50 to 57 range all year. the buyers came back at 50, as expected. they are supporting the stock. i don't know why. it seems to be okay. >> fed ex up 9%. guy. >> great story they found out after three quarters, the stock has been on fire ever since. be careful. you're trading against levels we last saw four or five years ago. not unlike google, monday is not the day to get in buying fed ex hand over fist. >> american express up 7% this week. >> card spending was great. they will spin off the travel division of it. two days in a row we made new highs here. i'd wait for a down day before you buy this one. >> gambling grandpas, you can bet one welsh grandfather is proud of his progeny, 15 years ago peter edwards placed an $80 wager at 2500 to 1 odds his newborn grandson would one day play soccer for the welsh team. that paid off. harry wilson started in a match against belgium netting his
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grandfather an early retirement. >> he gave the coach 50 grand and pocketed. it's easy. i should do it now. >> you should before your progeny gets too old. >> worry about counterparty risk there. >> all right. and from betting on your own kin to wagering big bets on nfl superstars, brand new trading platform, fan techs offers fans the ability to buy shares in professional athletes. how does that work? how can you get a piece of say the houston texans' arian foster. that's next. the ripple effect with only 67 days left until christmas. give this holiday season being the shutdown that's still christmas. back in two. ♪
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total request friday. let's get to a tweet. how do you trade amazon on earnings next week? who's going to take that one? josh. please. >> i'll tell you, it's been up a lot. you're in it. i would do a stock replacement type of thing. i go out, i buy upside calls, i take some profit on here.
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or just buy puts on it as well. put i'd rather just be take a little off the table and do a stock replacement. >> the stock had $40 ripped out of it the last time around this past summer. keep in mind, the street doesn't really care about earnings, per se. but they will react to the tone of the call and forward guidance, even though it rallies back, it's not the kind of thing you have to be in. >> into earnings, in your view a no touch. >> if you miss it, you miss it. it's $330 right now. >> it's been a week full of big earnings. let's fast forward to next week's biggest earnings reports on our radar, first up caterpillar getting set to report third quarter results on wednesday before the bell. down about 2%. >> it's underperformed now for the last couple years, number one. number two, for whatever reason it sold 81 about three or four different times over that same period. each rally in the stock has been more shallow than the last one. this time, for whatever reason, it feels like it's setting up to
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push toward 90 bucks. we'll see. the china data has been better. we'll see. if there was ever a quarter for them to say something constructive and finally get the stock moving, it's this one. so as much as i don't like it long term, i actually think you might see a surprise to the upside this quarter. >> next up, high flier boeing doucet to report earnings on wednesday before the bell. what's the trade here? >> this is like one of the best looking charts on the dow or even in the entire s & p 500. i've been bullish on it for a while. the backlog is a trillion dollars plus. really nothing negative that you can say about it. other than you wish you would have bought it cheaper at an earlier date. you probably won't get a chance. so i still like it. >> all right. finally, steel stocks have had a rough go. ak steel gained back momentum in the past few months, that company due to report third quarter earnings on tuesday. >> they have absolutely ripped on steel stocks. you take the hard landing in china off the table. these guys may do better. at this point, though, i would not be in these stocks. we have china gdp came in good.
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now you need a new catalyst. take your profit and move on. >> after the break -- actually, yeah, after the break. we're going to tell you how you can invest in a pro athlete from the fan tech ceo, up next. >> fast money means trading. everybody has to bring their best information each and every night. the entire trading day is the preparation for the show that night. >> it's idea generation, it's all about giving you a framework for how to look at the market. as the world has changed, our show has evolved. >> i am guy adami. i am fast money. >> i am pete najarian, i am fast money. >> are you fast money? go to the nbc universal store, and order your fast money tee. run with the big dogs. customer erin swenson ordered shoes from us online
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this one is for you, josh. bought supervalu at 3, do i need to sell or hold? >> i wouldn't be anywhere near this on a trading basis, it just sliced through every moving average. huge red candle on the chart. this thing has to reset up in the low 6s at best. this is not my kind of stock. >> red canned lt equals bad.
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>> trade school. >> now you see the long start to capitulate and goat out of this thing, that's what the candle is indicative of. >> all right. >> that's hot. >> guy, this one is for you. what do you think about jcp at this price now? >> there seems to be call buying on. a lot of people speculating in the twitterverse, maybe carl icahn is back to old tricks. i was wrong. thinking carl would come in and get a pop on this thing. i think it's a casino stock. no touch. >> nbc, last thoughts on zillow. >> i'd rather be in home builder stocks. you have that same type of area. i'd much rather be xhb, that type of thing, or even toll brothers. >> there is no read candle. >> yeah. watch out for the red candles. >> very important. >> you burn yourself. >> ever wish you could earn pieces of your favorite athletes and profit from their successful careers? a new company is offering a way
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to trade star player brands through stocks that track their income, both on and off the field. joining us now to explain more about the new way to trade is buck french, co-founder and ceo of fan text, great to have you with us. >> thank you. >> an investor buys a share, what exactly is he or she getting? >> so as you know we publicly filed our s-1 yesterday, what they will be getting is a fan text stock. >> is there any guarantee that an investor gets a piece of aryan's future earnings, in the prospectus, it says, quote, we cannot provide any guarantee that the series will in fact track the performance of such brand. >> so the brand contract in which we sign with arian foster defines his brand and what income brand income is made up of. and so as we collect that from
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arian. some of it covers the expenses of fan text, inc. and brand building expenses for us working with arian to build his brand. and then the remaining of that brand income is attributesed to the tracking series. >> so basically, let's just say, and i know you're a new company, i don't want any bad luck to you, but let's say fan tex loses money. all of arian foster's future income could go to covering fan tex's expenses and business operations. >> in theory, that's correct. but we wouldn't have very much investors for future tracking series, if that was the case. >> so aryian foster, by runningback standards, getting a little long in the tooth. what is his earning power post the nfl? you've seen runningbacks come and go. you never hear from them again. i'm a big arian foster fan. he's a monster. but what will he do four or five years from now, when he's not playing runningback for the texans. >> sure, that's a great question. really the basis of what we're doing is about brand building, it's not about them just being
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an athlete brand. it's taking it beyond to that next level. so the reality is our efforts working with arian is shape ask craft that brand. you know, we look at arian as a dynamic individual beyond just a pro bowl runningback. and creating tremendous post career opportunities based on helping shape his brand. so -- >> buck, i want to jump in and ask one more question, if you don't mind. the history of tracking stocks on wall street is really not a good one. when you think about all of the companies that have spun off an entity, typically they end up buying them back. in this case, that's not really going to be an option, the whole thing is a tracking stock. who do you think this is appropriate for in terms of investors? who should buy this thing? >> so anyone who believes, when they look at an arian foster and their brand, whether they believe they will have a longevity associated with the brand. so the opportunity here is arian foster the next magic johnson
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type brand, the next arnold palmer type brand or not? >> right. >> and as they actually evaluate that opportunity, that's really how they should look at it. >> buck, great to have you with us. >> thank you very much. >> buck french with a great name. buck french. >> great name. >> time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. guy adami first. >> i forgot -- i swear to god i forgot what i said. put it up on the thing. >> moving on. final trade. >> you keep remembering. b.k. >> i said at the top of the show you seen a couple fat squirrels around here. it's a cold winter, buy natural gas. >> josh. >> if you long google hold it, if not, wait. >> options action is up next.
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this is options action, tonight, it's new tech versus old tech. >> what are you talking about? >> as ibm tanks, investors flock into facebook and linked in. could they be making a mistake? we'll have a special report. plus, while everyone was watching google. >> did you see that? >> there's one sector, whose undercover rally has just begun. we'll tell you what it is and how you can cash in. and get ready for a bombshell.

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