tv Fast Money CNBC October 21, 2013 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
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the dow jones finished almost break even. >> live from the nasdaq in new york city's time square. i'm melissa lee. here's tonight's line up. what the the best long term play for your portfolio? one of the belly's top managers. we will give you the trade tonight and soy lar flares. have further room to run. we have got a trade update for you. we have got to get straight to
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the afterhours action in shares of netflix. the stock rocking on earnings. look at that gain up more than 9%. netflix is the best performing stock up 446%. that is more than double the next best performer which is micron technologies. a. >> they missed it. i didn't think it was going to print 400 but it has become an international story. look at the international ads. that is a monster beat on that side. i like to say that you get long netflix.
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i have got to believe that you will see some meaningful bull back. >> i have been dead wrong on this. my point was that at i didn't want to touch this stock. what these guys have done and what this number shos. if ewe ear coming out of school n now. >> absolutely not. >> you are not. >> but you probably have netflix. and guy talked about this internationally. this is why the stock is trading at a massive premium. >> yep. they have just surpassed them. it's about customer satisfaction. i think some of the elements that people have forgotten about. i just looked at my notes from
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last time. they have been spending on that international front on that time now. that's only the tip of the iceberg folks. >> you know what are they going to start to pay? >> here's the thing that you have got to remember. who is the competition? they own content. >> and they make content. we so i think the stock still goes higher.
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>> there are plenty of investors who made a bundle. >> i have got to think that carl made more money in netflix alone. >> i think he bought half a billion dollars worth. >> and he did it through options. he was selling puts. willing to say if this thing goes lower i'm going to own it. >> the stock was about $58. that does notally make that the
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top. >> exactly. he made $313 million in today's gain in netflix alone. >> i don't think the story is over. it's very hard to initiate a position. >> you would have spent $20? or $100? >> that's not true. i have been pretty steadfast. >> if i were carl, he has got to wait until he has owned it a year. >> real quick. if i were carl, i would buy some puts. he would have to pay a premium to do it but he could buy some puts structured out there.
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>> so netflix, all time high? >> you are a netflix bull. you have been. >> we have still got to rescrub the numbers. they have been reported they have been rumored but not actually signed yet. second, does this company have pricing power? if they do that, margins go higher. look, they are still losing over
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300 million dollars this year. if they can bring that ship to profitability i think the stock goes higher. so they have got two on their hands. house of cards and oranges. they will really prove that they have hbo like content cape lts. >> with listen. great story. i am trying to play devil's advocate here. >> the reason the subscriber nurnls seem to be rising is the churn rates have really come down. so with a couple of hits on their hand, people are sticking around. it keeps getting better and
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better. it's a great position the company is in right now. >> look at where the street is. you have had a good call on this name. >> i think completely. look at the number of downgrades on this stock. it's been very few people who have stuck with this. maybe we got lucky. >> we were talking earlier about potential competitors being way behi behind. >> you know, i remember you and i talking about this before.
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it's hard for me to see and make that kind of deal work. see you on the fast line ni bring you all the headlines throughout the hour. keep you posted on the monster move. is now the time to hold the burr ree toe, so to speak? downgraded to a hold from a buy today. great to have you with us. thanks for coming by. you acknowledge that cmg observes valuation because of its growth prospects? >> i think for right now, you should trade around 29 times
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2015 earnings. there is is a little bit of a fear of heights. both from organic growth perspectives well as new unit growth, company guided to >> you downgrade what's the thchipotle has been an historic stock. >> do they -- their ticket price is about the same. it has been basically flat but they have got great traffic numbers. can they raise price a little bit or will that do something? >> historically when chipotle
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quarter was lousy. i think you would agree with it. >> i don't think anybody is giving these guys a chance to have an interesting quarter. >> then from hero to zero, jp morgan reaching a settlement with the justice department. but? >> nobody puts baby in a corner. >> nice. >> it doesn't look like shareholders are worried yet. we have got the jp morgan story next. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 trading inspires your life. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 life inspires your trading. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 where others see fads... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 ...you see opportunities. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 at schwab, we're here to help
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done absolutely everything right. i'm not saying this is wrong but i'm saying he has not made comments about the price of the stock. >> good question. >> explain that. nobody puts baby in a corner. i don't know if you saw the story that he did not get his perrer iffed seat but they put him in a corner. it didn't translate at all when we ran the clip. do i think that he is worth it?
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i do. i think he got a -- i don't think it was him. that's really unfair. but the stock already reflects it. i think it reflects -- the earnings have already reflected they picked up enormous legal provision. i don't think we're going to see additional charges. i think it already reflects the penalty. i think clarity is good. >> the idea that jamie, karen thinks he is very good looking. >> he is very good looking. >> i'm not denying that. but if you look at the five-year performance, it's not like it
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first solar surging higher today. if you listen to our very own josh brown friday you could have cashed in. take a listen to what he said. >> solar is what the information technology is now, solar is probably what happens in the energy over the next ten years. >> let's bring in j.b. on the fast line. >> that's an etf that earns the 22 most levered to solar companies in the world. it's global, china, and u.s. you get first solar in there as 6%.
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>> again, this is for investors. if you want to trade the names you certainly could. >> as a trade, this has been a two month trade. this just didn't happen friday it happened today. >> i'm still under water on the name. >> i just want to bring this one point out. i think it's really important. most people in america still when they think of solar stocks they think about their neighbor's roof. that is not what's happening here.
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and i'm talking globally. warren buffet is building the largest solar plant in the world. google is starting to run all of its plants. i think it's a decade long story. >> a couple things strike me. extraordinarily volatile. given that horrendous picture. i'm surprised there is not a lightbulb in his mouth in that picture. i love josh. >> who doesn't. >> he should come by with the lightbulb. >> all right.
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>> expectations are pretty high. >> and they absolutely crushed it. the revenues came in line. but that's still a huge number they were able to put up. this is a company that is focusing more on mobile as far as the whole cloud space. they absolutely crushed it. the stock is going to hold on to some of the gains. emc is obviously going to be reporting. they are tied together. >> you actually got into emc over vm ware today.
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>> probably not the ipad minny at 3.29. and the full sized ipad with receiptina at 499. the rumor is that we will get a mini with the retina display. i doubt they can do all of that and maintain margin. wouldn't make too much about the unit share concerns. >> all right. john, i still have a question here, this is still a soft that is basically.
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>> i kind of doubt it. i think a lot has to do with the iphone itself. what they have to say about the 5s and what they're going to be able to do supply wise to keep up with demand. i think that's going to have a lot more to do with it. >> thanks a lot for that. apple, what's the trade. >> everybody has a good call on this. technically the call has broken out. to me, they have to get multiple products out on multiple price points to be able to compete on the point.
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>> there was no news out there for the stock to move. suddenly you get into the second half. now here we are over 500. the objectivity is extremely short term. they trade 25,000 each today. very, very active. i disagree with you. the one thing when you read the steven jobs book, other than coming away with this guy was not very likable at times but the other thing you come away is he understood about the erosion factor and he would rather erode himself than let someone else do it. whether it's the ipads or the music and all of the rest of that. they continue to innovate something in that same space. >> i get that. but the thing is -- i know john said you have to be careful with share numbers. the tablet share was 67%. it's down a lot. >> well, there is no doubt. >> not necessarily themselves. >> they are not necessarily dealing with it themselves.
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i think that actually will get some of that back as well. >> julia? >> partnering with a cable company. and hastings says he has a comcast x1 cable box at home and he wishes he could access netflix on it as well. we have to figure out deal terms that make sense for both sides. he did make a point that these talks that they are having are not just limited to comcast but to all of the cable providers here in the u.s. one other quick note here is the fact that they say they are not interested in sports rights. obviously the nfl has been in talks with google. netflix is not interested.
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there is no doubt in my mind that is easier. >> it's a big deal. >> we're talking about trading tomorrow. it's not going to happen tomorrow or next week -- >> probably. >> i'm sure a lot of people factor it in. it's going to head straight to 450. >> if $9 million internationally, how much do you think they could grow that and how fast? >> all right. let's switch gears here. crude prices falling below 100 bucks a barrel following larger than expected u.s. inventories.
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>> we are becoming a dominant force. the world's largest producer of crude oil. and i think in looking at these numbers as i like to say in speech after speech, we have already seen how much 120 crude oil is out there. we know what it costs to produce it. i have a sneaking suspicious we will go down and take a look and see how much $85 crude oil is down there. to increase production of crude
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oil which would benefit the united states. so i think there is is a lot going on not just here in the states. i think crude oil looks bleak. we actually have a cantango. >> what's going on with the expansion of the panama canal tells me that it is a major destination spot on the export side. the refiner's trade is what i want to go to. is it the refined product? we are not allowed by law to export crude oil. especially given the discount that the wti has.
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especially given the discount that the canadian crew has given. >> great to have you. >> good to be had. >> we have a very special treat. in the second half we are featuring your tweets and questions. drop us a line and you can watch the bottom of your screen to see if your post makes it. >> do it. >> let's go. >> i'm going to tweet right now. >> tweeting away, baby.
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overall. really didn't trade quite as much volume. i think sometimes you can see interesting trades in there and we did. >> and facebook, that was a very big trade there. can you lay it out i think that's one of the things that people have to keep their eye on. it was a trade of almost 17,000, november 65 calls. those traded were just about $1.40. we do have face book earnings coming up. another thing that is
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interesting, of course, if you are a buyer of the calls you need to see facebook stock above 66.40 to see profits on that trade. that's 20% above the all time high. somebody might be inclined to think that these earnings numbers would be pretty compelling. something like 30,000 times. so, there have been upside. they have been going for november. they started to push away. activity in the front month of october. but when you look at the novembers, huge paper. the one thing on the 65s, i'm not sure if they may be covering some of what may be a short position. that, you never know until we see tomorrow and we start to see how the open interests change. >> one thing that i would add is
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that imagine you are short those calls. imagine you are short the calls. why would you look to cover them for $1.40 here. the only reason you would do that is you would think the stock would go higher. >> you catch more every friday and check out the website. all right. let's get to a tweet here. tesla, this is is a good question. justin asks tesla down a good chunk today. >> he has become -- >> if you haven't been in it, i don't think now is the time. >> it has not really recovered from the fire. never recouped those highs and it's only a few dollars off from the lows. interesting that it has not come back here. keep your twitter comments
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coming and we will keep featuring them throughout the show. you want to stay tuned for that. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box. ♪ all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. ♪
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>> let's get to another tweet here. tomorrow is jobs tuesday. this fellow or gal asks. >> they're going to -- the estimates are 180. i think -- ultimately this is about where do you think the fed is coming in. now 65% say not until march do you get taper. >> so it really doesn't matter what tomorrow's jobs report is? >> the guidance was already so soft. this is where we are right now. i think people have written it off. >> the markets are surging to record highs. let's bring in barbara, portfolio manager. great to have you with us. >> nice to be back. >> i want to start with a stock that we hardly ever talk about.
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>> in the two years since it has been a public company, it has had very difficult macro markets which have had no growth in its revenue or earnings and has also had company specific issues, really missing earnings estimates in about several of the nine since it went public. the company has ahead of it a longer term story of spending on infrastructure. water waste and transport treatment systems. it has that ahead of it.
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so you have a longer term macro story. it has been a head wind and start to be a tail wind. the company has a very strong balance sheet and part of its business is an annuity business. it can leverage that out. >> september 12. >> 465. >> we had a little discussion. can i say that i disagree that tomorrow is a ho hum event. it's going to be a little bit thinner. a little bit less wide. a better experience in the hand. and who knows. we may get fingerprint. certainly more colors are to be expected. again, i think that apple is continuing to show its strategy of delivering on the high end and not being the market leader
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in an exploding huge market. >> coming up next we are hitting the biggest moments on cnbc today and your tweets including how the retell investor can get involved. stay tuned. ♪ ♪ here we are, me and you ♪ on the road ♪ and we know that it goes on and on ♪ [ female announcer ] you're the boss of your life. in charge of making memories and keeping promises. ask your financial professional how lincoln financial can help you take charge of your future. ♪ ♪ oh, oh, all the way ♪ oh, oh
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>> welcome back. in case you missed some of today's top moments, here is a rapid fire recap of tonight's executive edge. >> janet will be a great chairman. she has an awful lot of exexperience with monetary poli policy. i think we will see a lot of continuity. >> there is no exit strategy. the question is not tapering. the question is at what point will they increase the asset purchase. >> oh good. >> we are 0-6. it has not been a great start.
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they're going to go out and play their butts off. >> i am so proud of this company. that's what i wake up thinking every day. >> i hear you. >> i know we have to do it. >> i hear you. do you feel this is is a shake down? >> i want to get up. >> there is no sugar coating. the website has been too slow. people have been getting stuck during the application process. and i think it's fair to say that nobody is more frustrated by that than i am.
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>> people are making a lot of mistakes. >> you buyer of diddy? >> he is sporting the grills that i don't think is still in. >> you are dragging me into a conversation that i have no knowledge of whatsoever. >> what's the best way to get a few shares of the twitter ipo? >> if you were to get shares of twitter, you wouldn't want them. >> look at facebook. how about those people. >> this one is for tim. another tweet here. do they feel recent acquisitions can hurt earnings? >> they have to compete to continue to monetize their brand. there are a lot of met fors you can strike. it's bucking through there. and i think you watch the stock.
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>> one last look at netflix. new highs being set. somewhere out there carl icahn is having a martini. his gains stapd at about $313 million. time for the fin meanwhile, "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer, welcome to "mad money," welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i just want to make you a little money. my job is not just to entertain you but to educate and teach you
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