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tv   Squawk Box Europe  CNBC  October 29, 2013 4:00am-5:01am EDT

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you're looking at daily numbers across for the tuesday session. a little bit of red creeping on to these boards. waiting for some fresh cues from the fomc as they meet to decide on this tapering program. any change to the language would be potentially negative for the language. we are hoping to see that the stimulus remains for some time. the data yesterday notes that will be the case. manufacturing numbers are weak. the houses numbers softer, as
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well. hoping that the numbers that we see will suggest that program remains intact. but the early reaction has been patchy. markets are trading weaker. down 0.1%. and the banks in now the negative side. we've got some of the big ones reporting this morning that are trading lower. the likes of lloyd's in particular the worst in the basket. dragging the overall sector down. basic resources just outpacing with some of the big ones with the likes of rio tinto shedding over 1%. that's having a negative impact. peugeot, weak out of the gates this morning. financials trading in negative territory. retail stocks weaker today, as well. but let's get to some of the green. telco, slightly positive. food and drink, one of the early
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gainers. but it's oil and gas with bp right at the top of the back, 3 plus percent to the up side. let's take a look at how the uk opened up as a result. we are in the green. ten points added on early. bp's third quarter earnings came in at $3.7 billion. this is -- in terms of the dividend hike, as well, by 6%. it will continue to review the payout with first and third quarter results each year. this has been the yearly reaction, investors giving a tick of approval. we're going to be diving into a conversation with the ceo, bob dudley, in a first on "worldwide exchange" at 10:00 cet. there is an absence around the set. steve has gone off to speak to bob dudley. you can imagine it's going to be a pretty interesting conversation when we hear it.
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lloyd's in the banking sector one of the weak ones early on. pushed lower by 3%. the company's underlying -- almost doubled in the third quarter thanks to an improved margin and lower cost. the bank did take a 750 million charge to compensate commerce who missold insurance products. many set as sooi as manies as $8 billion for the scandal. standard chartered is 11.8% lower. the company posted low single digit growth in both operating profit and revenue during the third quarter. the bank's earnings were hurt by the underperformance of emerging markets currencies as well as ongoing troubles at its consumer bank in south korea. let's move on to how the swiss market has opened up in trade this morning. we've got a negative picture there. 0.4% lower. it has shed about 33 on points. ubs won the big heavyweights is tanking down 6 plus percent.
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look at that efrl reaction. the swiss giant delivered an early number in line with forecasts. risk is now a major concern for investors. let's get our to carolyn with early numbers. carolin, what do you make of that, 6% lower? >> to be honest, i think that reaction is a little bit outside. keep in mind that shares of the company have had a really good run this year. they're up 32% year-to-date. but yes, of course, there are concerns about this additional risk on or at risk with financial market regulator is requiring ubs to hold. this is quite significant, especially because ubs was singled out of the twis banks because of the additional unknown litigation risk that have come over the next couple of quarters. it could be reviewed over the
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next couple of quarters. what this means imminently is that ubs will likely not meet its 30% target by 2015. ubs saying this morning that this target will be pushed out by at least one year. it also means that the capital level is going to fall. this will be hit negatively to the tune of 10 basis points. now, you've got an offsetting effect of an additional 100 basis point increase in the capital base as a result of the staff fund by that. that the company announce last quarter. so a lot of the risk involving litigation, further compliance risk, that ubs's ceo said to me that he thinks the bank is very transparent about that risk. >> we are being quite up front about our litigation in both our litigation report and our language in the passporters.
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in general, we are addressing all the open items that we have in a way that both, you know, take advantage of the situation but also we are taking care of our shareholder interest and, therefore, i think we will continue to do so. >> are you being investigated? >> this has been reported by all regulators. following media reports, we had to caption looking into the matter and take appropriate actions, as well. and we continue to -- to work with the authorities on this manner. but there is nothing more we can say at this stage. >> the biggest surprise in the announcement is the risk add on. what does it mean for your capital levels? >> this was a temporary add on. and we do expect this add-on to
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be phased out as we address the litigation and other operational risk issues. just demonstrate once again, by the way, the value of the strength of our capital position. we are able to absorb those kind of issues and being capitalized among our peers. i think this will not divert us from our goal and we will reach our 30% target at the end of next year. still, once we achieve that target, we will have a payout ratio of at tleeft 50%. >> do you feel that the regulator is being too harsh on ubs? is this a late punishment on the bank? >> no, i'm making no comment on those issues? >> that was very diplomatic. the numbers, karen, they're a bit of a side show, really. they came in broadly in line with expectations. you've got a slight beat on the net level, holding up relatively
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well with market conditions in the third quarter. but this is where ubs's model seems to be paying off, at least for now. it saw revenues increase by some 16% kwarter on quarter. thank you very much for that. we've seen so many bank numbers coming out, do you have ya bank, ubs, and if i can dive into one element, it was this litigation risk and many are allocating more money for concerns about what they need to settle their regulators. things are not just one off being the banking sector any more, are they? >> they are not. the regulatory risk, essentially governments are saying, we're going to get you. we're going to get you in the lending. they've got the fundamental
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problems with banks. and private sector borrowing in most countries is pretty weak. behind that, of course, particularly in europe and the uk, most of the big banks are underprovide for their bad debts. bad debt continues and the next phase, the regulation problems and the selling problems, watch those bad debt numbers in time. >> the likes of ubs transitioned away from the bad debt story, some of the nonperforming parts of the business says the worst is now behind. if you look at what's being reported today, they don't get that sense of satisfaction, do they? which is why the stock is down. >> you have the cash from the banks and the hype of the reality is the part. if you look through most of the big banks, you'll find their provisions for bad debt are still quite low. on the other side, the revenue side, they're slashing their high risk debt.
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so we have got a problem. people have become overconfident about banks. and i come back to it again. not many people are borrowing. >> how much of this has to do with the fact that we have the stress tests coming up, we know 90 days is a real classification for nonperforming loans, that is going to be used to test the system. these banks looked like a value play and now we're sitting on something that may look like a value trap. >> you're quite right. a lot of these banks are still lending. people are not paying their loans. they still are taking the big hits. >> are you surprised? ubs has come out today, they've pushed back this hour. we target 50% by 2015, by
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another year. >> i think it's really, really unlikely. i think the historic level of roes we've had, and they're still pacing, is all predicated on going back to high octane dealing. it's very unlikely. 13%, 14%, 15% is a big stretch for banks when regulators are trying to fill them. >> plenty more to speak to you about, jonathan. let's get up to speed with what's happening out there on markets. still the german market, the xetra dax is slightly under water this morning. we are seeing a bit of selling there and also switzerland, the spanish market, as well. it's just a slight push lower. you can see right across on the banking sector, these numbers are all disappointing today.
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deutsche bank has missed its proper forecast for the third quarter after taking a $1.2 billion litigation charge. let's get your reaction to this selling we're seeing on the open. >> actually, i would say analysts for a long time had been too positive about litigation charges for the banks. and what do you have ya bank has been saying early on, in looking at what jpmorgan is saying, they're saying they're taking thats a reference. that is what we are seeing today. they're offing the litigation research to 24.1 billion euro and in addition there setting aside 1.3 billion euro of future potential litigation costs. so, you see, a lot of money is going into those funds, which is, of course, having a detrimental effect on fre tax
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profit. a slump almost 95% to 18 million euro for deutsche bank is nothing in terms of pretax profit. net profit was 51 million euro in the third quarter, helping by cuts. that's trading, which is, of course, the big cash cow for deutsche bank in normal team, slumped 48%. if you compare that to your big ubs competitors, because deutsche bank wants to be compared to them, they want to be the top five investment plays, big player there. u.s. competitors fixed trading component, only slumped by 25%. bat nud for deutsche bank. other losers here on the german market set. >> annette, thank you very much for that.
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one of the prmpers today is ferrovial. 2.6% higher after posting a 2% rise in profit. i was looking at this stock. the performance so far this year is very solid, despite a brief dip in june. let's get over to stephane for more. stephane, reaction has been fairly positive today. >> absolutely. driven by international business, that includes a 37% growth in the united kingdom. ferrovial is the main shareholders of the heathrow airport.
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it would limit how much the airport could charge to airlines for the use of its facilities. they're concerned that such decision would drive investors away from the london heathrow airport. last week, they sold an 8% stake in the airport. the london-based university scheme last year already sold more than 10% of the holding and it now has a 25% stake and the deposit remains the largest. 40 cents will be paid in december between 25 and 30 cents will be paid at a later date. after the report, raymond james raised the price target up from 13 euro 40 and still has an
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outperform rating. market reaction, extremely positive. as they were talking about recommendations, bbpa is one of the worst performers this morning after credit suisse changes its recommendation on the stock to outperform. the nonperforming ratio has increased sharply between the second and the third quarter. over to you. >> stephane, thank you very much for that. bp is the top performer on the ftse this morning. the all-giant posted better than expected profits and shiekd its dividend by 60%. let's get out to peter at rpc capital markets. a hike in terms of the payout. they're transitioning the business by selling more assets and based on the headline numbers. win, win or round today?
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>> headline beat by 16%. that looks extremely strong. if you're going to get picky, which i'm paid to do, you'd say the underlying business is the upstream and the downstream. they were up 2% on expectations. nonetheless, this is an area of delivery which bp, on most of the oil majors, failed to do in the second quarter. so it's not surprising that we've seen them up about 4% so far today. the additional divestment is going to be taken positively. which, in fact b, were flat this quarter compared to a year ago.
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>> bp has paid millions for that gulf spill in 2010. what else can bp share without destroying the future direction of the company? >> well, i think there are a number of areas. bp will have an ongoing program of divestment. talk about doing 2 billion to 3 billion a year. it's a do believe amount and it's more than just housekeeping. it's relatively aggressive. but it's not selling the family jewels, i would say. and in a company of this size, you would expect them to separate some assets which are going to be sort of outside their core, moving to maturity or perhaps in the upstream where
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they've got 100% of licenses an opportunity to fawn down in some owes these areas. >> is the free cash flow enough? >> we see bp is having relatively modest free cash flows after the dividend. free cash flows this quarter is 3.6 billion, about the same as last quarter. still at the low end. i think what you're seeing is a continuing to invest heavily. free cash flows around neutral, without delivering growth, and cash flow growth which start to come through between now and right through 2020. so in our view, you've got a modest free cash flows, but you're continuing to invest in the growth of the cash flows in the business. and that i think is the right thing to be doing. >> let me ask you about the oil
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price, peter. the oil price has been relatively strong versus the rest of the year. there's to guarantee oil prices are going to pick up. >> no, i think that's right. although we have seen relative stability, particularly around brent, around just a little over 100 to 110. that is a relatively stable movement. this is a market where on a near term basis we are not seeing, actually, from the supply. we reckon that we're sort of about six or seven quarters into a period of 12 consecutive quarters of marginal oversupply in the global oil market. but with continued concerns about disruption in the middle east and we're seeing that again today with news of production out of libya, could be below 100,000 barrels a day, the nervousness continues around the market and that supports brent around $1100 a barrel.
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>> peter, there's been some expectations built into this preearnings by the looks of it. we are taking a look a little later on with the ceo because steve has gone down there to speak to bob dudley. what do you think we want to hear? what are investors looking for in terms of the dialogue? out there on the market. we're a little bit tapped out. they're looking for the next catalyst to move higher. do you think we're seeing -- is it the earnings or is it about central banks stock? >> it's not about the earnings. if you look a year ago, keep moving forward. they're not smart enough to address their guidance about a day before. and it's a fairly cynical game. we took the long-term role, earnings growth is slowing. not significantly. it's drifting away quietly. again and again and again, it
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could be mobile phones. they're reporting quite weak sales. >> the numbers didn't exactly match up in session. it didn't seem to management the smektations of investors, a company of its size now. >> it's managing expectations. >> i think apple with its pr, the pr has been slightly. it's an extremely mature business and they have some very good products. and the growth is slow. you can still see there's too many people in the pr box they're trying to get out so they're confused. we've been asking this morning, it's a business where it's not adding any new innovation now. people need to consider the stock differently than what they
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did before, don't they? >> it reminds me of the big winners of 20, 30 years ago. and when you've got these products, people come in and say i can imagine this. this is clearly a margin erosion story over the long-term. >> more broadly, a lot of expectations. there's been quite a bit of selling, particularly in some of the chinese and technology stocks. when you look at what's been priced into this market now, where do you still see value? is there something that stands out as a good solid buy? >> no. if you take historic valuation, they're quite high and i think they're going to stay quite high. if they reduce their quantitative easing, they're going to go into recession. it's unacceptable.
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private sector growth is negative. the only growth is negative doing this and that. and the minute they pull out, it's going to see a session that is politically unacceptable. the fed is clearly going, oops, the numbers aren't very good. it's going be the ecb who has to come up to refinancing. and i can see them doing exactly what they promised and that is pushing the button. already mark is going, i'm a dovish kind of guy. and you can see the sea of money for a long time. so this is payday for investors saying we see value now, we're going to put money over on this side of the pond because this is where the returns are going to be. >> we are seeing that. the soft part of the real gain
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is anyone that thinks they've had their pensions paid for by the monday markets is smoking something illegal. so you've got some big shift. holding bonds is a hard money making strategy. >> the fed didn't taper, so we had still decent price owes u.s. treasury. >> i know we've got decent prices, but we've had this 32-year long bull market and it's get very long in the tooth. and you're not making much. you're looking at relative returns going, wow, i missed that one. people have missed basically the sector in history with bonds. >> jonathan, we have to fit in a break. let's pick up the conversation on the other side of this break. we'll be right back.
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the stoxx 600 lower with ubs and deutsche bank after litigation costs weighed on profits in the first quarter. even an 83% jump in underlying profit of lloyd's fell to uk stock. the uk lender falls to the bottom of the ftse 100 as increasing provisions missed selling insurance products. bp provides cheer. the biggest gainer in europe after hikes of dividend and profits beat forecasts. we're going to be bringing you a live interview and exclusive interview with ford's giant at 10:00 cet. and while michelin is the latest company to face currency head whippeds, they cut targets sending shares to the bottom of the paris market.
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we've seen a sharp sell-off in ubs shares as litigation risks weigh on thebacking giant. >> it's a couple factors. it's the additional provisions for litigation. an extra provisions is what the bab bank set aside in the third quarter. on top of that, you have new capital demands outlined by the regulator here in switzerland. they require an additional 50%
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for any unknown litigation and compliance factors that could hit the bank in the future. some would argue this is extremely punitive, this is punishing for the bank and it doesn't really correspond with reality. but ubs is in a position to deal with those issues, to deal with the additional capital requirements. as we saw at the end of the third quarter, it has an extremely strong capital ratio. this is why they like the stock. it is best in class and capital. and when i spoke to the ceo of the bank, he said to me that their target for their capital bases based on basul 3, that is not going to change as a result of the higher capital demand set out. the only thing that is going to change is their return on equity target by 2015. they're not now going to be able to reap that by 2015 but by at least one year later than that.
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let's listen in to what sergio had to say about the performance in the third quarter. he says that the banking model, that they chose to go with is worki working. well, actually, the third quarter was a challenging one, seasonally usual, difficult operating environment. we are very pleased with the way our last nine months have been developing. i think, yes, the performance is good across the board in all segments, but particularly the investment bank has been able to operate at a level in which the return on allocated equities was 17%. so it was a good quarter. >> how can you be so sure of your business model? if inflows were half of what you saw in the second quarter, the wealth management margin declined even further. does that not worry you? >> sure. our asset base is still growing.
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if you are down 2 billion in our wealth management business in the u.s. is 7 billion. so 85 basis points is clearly below our target, but if you are just at four the risk aversion and, you know, which was quite severe in the third quarter once again. i'm still comfortable that on a multi year basis, our achievement is possible. >> do you have any indication of how the receipt of the quarter is going to play out? >> i think the market out there is still very challenging. i think it's very volatile. we saw some sign of relief after the decision of the government and not to pursue a default or something similar. but the situation there is fragile. i think there's too many open issues. so until we have a client asset base 28% in cash, it's going on to be quite difficult for, you know, the market and our clients to become a little bit less risk averse. >> you set aside almost 600
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million swiss francs for litigation and other regulatory matters. wondering, does this include a potential fine for the manipulation of for ex markets? >> we are being quite up front about our litigation issues, both in our litigation report and in our language and the passporters. we continue to expect litigation charges for the industry and for us. i think that, you know, in general, we are addressing all the open items we have in a way that both, you know, take advantage of the situation but also we are taking care about our shareholder interest and, therefore, i think that we will continue to do so. >> are you being investigated? >> in the monitor, you saw this is an industrywide issue being reported by all regulators. following media reports, we swiftly had two captions looking into the matter and take appropriate actions, as well.
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and we continue to work with the authorities on this manner. but there is nothing more we can say at this stage. >> now, the biggest surprise in the announcement is the is swiss regulator imposing operational risk add on. what does it mean for your capital levels? >> actually, this is a rex rather add on and we do expect this add on to be phased out as we address litigation and other operational at risk issues. and i'll demonstrate once again the value of the strength of our capital position. we are able to absorb those kind of issues and still being the best capitalized bank among our peers. i think this will not divert us from our goal and we will reach our target at the end of the next year. still, we will have a payout ratio of at least 50%. >> do you feel the swiss regulator is being too harsh on
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ubs? is this a late punishment for the bank? >> no. i think i'm making no comments on those kind of issues. >> and, contain, maybe there's a lesson here for deutsche bank. even if you settle with the libor, even if you settle with the housing companies in the u.s., the litigation costs are still going to come back to haunt you. >> carolin, thank you very much staying tuned. for that. our colleagues in the united states will be speaking to the chairman of goldman sachs, lloyd blankfein. let's get back to jonathan compton. we've been looking at a couple stocks here you've given us. yesterday one of the big movers on the open was cut to the outperform of credit suisse.
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wa do you like or dislike? >> there are several companies moving very fast. potentially on mobiles and bearing chips. the results last week were pretty good. most decisions were robust. you can see particularly in forth america, it's hugely underpenetrated by technology. more and more people now are buying their coffee with a swipe technology and you see the mobile technology and the swiping. which is very strong. as long as they are quick enough with technology, it should be a good return. >> it's a market strong strategy. >> so we're seeing decent performance so far this year. 16%. but i think there's more in it? >> i do. the numbers came through quite well. they had guided. they've beaten that.
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>> okay. let's move on to checkpoint in the states. this is a cyber security firm which typically has business generated more to financial corporations. but their packages are very wholistic. they can do everything pretty well. here is a company that's been progressing very well. their numbers have been progressively improving. >> there has been a handsome reward for shareholders. >> it's a fair point. it had a terrible time the year before. so you're only up the last three
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years by 15%. >> and this is a stock in japan, the japanese stock market has been one of the best performers worldwide so far this year. take a quick look at it. tell us about this company and why you like it, as well. one of the areas i think is great is japanese gambling. there are no japanese casinos. >> we were thinking about chinese gambling. >> exactly. but. >> japan, in relative terms, they're racing to bring in on-shore casinos. no one knows how to benefit for the sorting. they were chosen by the korean government with their long-term partner. it's a very interesting area insofar as there's no change in earnings at all. and it could be that for the
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companies who are likely to win. >> it's amazing how these gaming companies keep finding new markets in asia. they keep on popping up with their brand new markets to try and gain. thank you very much for that, jonathan compton. we'll get more with you in just a moment. but we are taking your correspondence this morning. also a bit of a discussion taking place with a couple of my followers on twitter. i was tweeting earlier about the strength in the euro and one of our guests saying it's a bit too strong, it's going to force the ecb to act because of the inflation and ek ports, that there will be more action coming through, saying that the middle class in the eurozone, the current rate in the euro is very good for local store shopping, saying on the other hand, it might encourage a bit of spending. john saying enjoying that shopping out there, as well. get in touch on my twitter
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account. basketball's popularity in china showing no signs of abating. are the other u.s. sports jumping on the bandwagon? eunice yoon has more for us. >> the l.a. lakers and the golden state warriors battle not in america, but in china. preseason games like this one in beijing are one way the nba dominates u.s. sports. so many potential fans here, the nfl has brought in glamour. >> i can say -- my name is. i can say what i'm -- >> but the game itself has yet to catch on. >> unfortunately we're not an olympic sport. therefore, we don't have the luxury of having an association that exists purely to promote the game of football. so we take this on ourselves.
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>> unlike basketball which has a trend among young chinese, a love for group activities where they can show off individual styles. retiring commissioner david stern has helped turn intien what na into the nba's biggest market outside the u.s. he sees revenues here rising in the double digits every year, thanks to tv telecasts and social media. the nba became widely popular here thanks to home grown heros like yao ming. there was concern that the sports league couldn't get a following. that didn't happen. >> the sports league, is it important to have chinese stars to be successful in china? >> no, it's not. i always say the biggest chinese star here is kobe and lebron. >> the nba's next step, new after school programs to get chinese kids to hone their
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skills, not just watch the warriors who won here, 100-95. >> i think where basketball grows, the nba grows. >> and so do profits. going over to ireland later today, but apparently it might actually come up with something new. still to come, where would you rather spend your pressure time off? find out why yorkshire and brazil are two of the planet's top places to visit in 2014.
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joining us now is tom paul, director of digital and contributor to the new pannette's best in travel 2014. tom, let's get some of the disclosure out of the way. jonathan was saying who owns you? you used to be owned by bbc worldwide. but now you're owned by media in tennessee. yes, that's right. >> tell us about the latest research you've come up with. there have been so many destinations now that some of the budget carriers take us to. are we heading more off the beaten path? >> it's been an opportunity not just to take budget flights around europe, but to access more and more unusual remote destinations. people are traveling further and
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wider and maybe a bit more inspiration to get bragging rights when they come back. >> this is our best in travel book which is the best things to do in a particular year, 2014 we're talking about. it's a largely unexplored region when it comes to travel is sikkim, india. it's jaw dropping mountain scenery. and it's gradually becoming discovered. >> the other one that stands out here is is yorkshire. you see in some of your research it's been in any other company outside london. >> mine, too. yorkshire is hosting part of the tour de france next year, which is a unique thing and very exciting. but there's more to yorkshire.
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it's got an absolutely beautiful countryside. lots and lots to be discovered there that people either in the uk or overseas may be going to better known stocks. >> have you discovered yorkshire? >> i have discovered yorkshire. it is north of london. yes, i know exactly what you're saying. >> and did you head into a restaurant? >> no. i went into a public and had some beer. >> there are so many different travel sites these days to go and look at on the internet. some of them in the news. some have decent branding, as well. how do you stay relevant? >> there's a vast amount of information out there. now information is there by lots of places. i think the stills are in selectivity, independence and understanding that they can rely
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on information that they get. so we have one of the largest and most successful communities on our site, as well. >> i always wonder about the information i'm getting and whether it's my target market, if i want to go to the hottest new bar or restaurant in town, am i going to get it from one particular source? how important is that when you're pitching to your reader to stay relevant to the people that you're trying to attract? >> i think it's very important to understand there isn't really one type of traveler any more, that basically we have one traveler that might take lots of different journeys over the course of the year. and then they might want to go on a hiking trip somewhere or for something adventurous like that. that said, it differs from destination to destination, basically. >> let's look at the overall sector and try to bring up a board on how the overall sector has performed so far this year. the airline sector, jonathan, in
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the market quite like it at one point. a bit like the banking sector in some ways. so as a valuation play, it's what investors got into. is there something you like in this sector or is it too fully priced right now? >> not to capacity. and i think it's very interesting. because you like these really kind of funky books. to me, asian travel is the future and asian travel out of the future. but i'm curious how much you're seeing there because the airline space, they are buying the short wall plays. look at the number of flights taking place now. asia has overtaken the west, as it were. i was just interesting because we can't find these really good plays right now. you can buy stocks more interesting in singapore or gentleman pap. but to me, i'm interested to see how much you're seeing in asia ya of selling your stuff in there and then you have to change your ty style, as well.
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>> we've seently launched books in china to go with guides that we have in other languages. it is a real growth area. i think one of the things that's interesting is how to get the foothold. but yes i think it's saifrts we have big ambitions for that part of the world. >> the market has been working on how to speak to the chinese consumer. this is a great example. is it the low end? you've been to shanghai before and you see these tour buses that show up on the water to take snaps of the scenery. you have to imagine that is a massive play. on the other hand, there's so many millionaires and billionaires in china and just clipping the ticket on that you think would've massive up side.
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>> people who are in asian countries wanting to get to europe, they want to experience luxury stop, but they're moving around the coast and lots of places. travel is defining a clear definition at this stage. >> if the chinese consumer is aspirational, you don't imagine they would want to go and stay at some of the big european or american restaurants or hotels and restaurants. is it the western names that they're seeking or is it travel experience or are they happier with some of the asian names? >> well, again, there's a
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different answer to that question. you have to tailor your recommendations for your audience. >> have a really, really great time. >> john than, let's get some final thoughts from you. this is a market now waiting to see whether the tapering program is at all on the horizon or whether it's well and truly pushed out into the first quarter of next year. what's your sense of what we're going to hear from the fed? >> i think tremendous faith in central bankers not making decisions. it's one of my driving principals. it's just extraordinary. and they're going to fudge it. they're going to say, oh, they're going to taper in january or december, whatever it is. i think the key thing is, whatever they say, it is extremely limited. it may come down from 85 billion to 84.99 or 74.99.
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but if they try to do more than that, you are going straight into a downturn and they'll backtrack as they have already. >> i don't have any issues with trade ago window if i see the opportunity. but i was talking to steve about this. he has great issues. do you think that is the case? we're looking at a situation down the track where investors have a whole bunch of risk further out because we are seeing inflating and stimulus that it's all going to come to a negative end at some point. >> it's quite likely. but that one day could be four, five, six, ten years off. they're started playing with money in the last couple of years. they could run until you and i lose confidence about the money in our pockets buying goods. and there's no sign of that. >> so much for the tool kit being empty when there seems to be a whole bunch of tools for central bankers to play with. best take away message? >> stay very long accounts. don't get carried away in the small sector like biotechs,
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which is very expensive. you're going to be all right. you're going to be all right. >> i've very much enjoyed your company today. thanks for joining us. our guest host tomorrow is simon from olive tree financial group. be sure to tune in. we're going to get more direction on these markets. we are tracking higher today on the stocks 600 up 1%. and you'll noticed steve did appear on the set about an hour ago. he is hiding and engaged with ceo bob dudley. we'll be playing that interview first on "worldwide exchange." that is all for the program today. next up, "worldwide exchange." ♪
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it's ross westgate. this is "worldwide exchange." ubs and deutsche fall as costs weigh on profits. good news, funds push bp to the top of the stoxx 600. following forecasts and results, we'll be joined by the ceo in just a moment.

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