tv Fast Money CNBC October 29, 2013 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
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we have the results of a two day fed meeting. take a look at the market. we finished at all time highs on the dough and s&p 500. new all time record closing high for the dow. s&p 500 was 1771. all three major averages on the up with side. stay with cnbc. "fast money" begins right now. ♪ >> live from the nasdaq market site this is "fast money," america's post market trading show. let's get straight to our top story tonight and that is the record highs in the market. both the dow and the s&p 500 closing at all time record highs. guy? >> hi there. this is unbelievable. >> that's the energy. >> it really is. people keep thinking there is going to be a pull back and it
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hasn't come. >> an interesting week. where are we right now? you still have a lot of week left. a lot could happen. i think it actually may test at a certain point for us not to have an upside down to the outside. >> i want to bring this back to the dow record closing high. this is very important. small caps on down the line. and then the dow, because of ibm and factors related to the fact that it's price weighted and it's very narrow was lagging and it was notable and in the middle of the day we got this news that
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ibm was doing a mayor buy back. everyone, you know, critiques the way the index is constructed, main street doesn't speak s&p. main street speaks dow. when they ask what did the market do today they want to hear about the dow. >> isn't that so pathetic? in all of the big cap world that it takes this massive buy back to get the stock up? speaking to global growth scenario that is not very healthy but again, what is this? it takes buy backs and dividend. >> only price pays at the end of the day. >> and we opened the show with
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daft punk. there was no luck involved with this at all. this was not luck. this was the trillion dollars that dan was speaking about that is on company balance sheets. ibm decided to spend some of that money. ibm decided to do it. it drove the dow and obviously other people seeing all that money out there don't want to be short some of the big names. >> i get that you want companies to spend on growth in their own companies. it's up 250% in that same time frame which is up 20%. so knock buy backs all you want, those companies with the biggest programs consistently over time have done better. >> i'm not knocking the buy back. to dan's point, we have been bearish on this stock for quite some time for good reason.
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the stock has underperformed as it should. it will be interesting to see how long ibm keeps the bounce. is it due to fade? my sense is it doesn't fade. >> my point is this. if you're up here, new all time highs in the dough. >> in the russel and transports. >> so right now at the very end here you have the market that continues to make new highs every day. if it's going to take a company that is expected to have 8, 9% eps growth, flat sales growth, if it will take buy backs and dividend to get this thing going to the next leg it just doesn't feel that healthy to me. >> then there is a twitter ipo. we have a lot of money sitting on the sidelines. if we connect the dots and
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mainstream is going better, incrementally that could mean more money going into the end of the year. >> you know, there is a massive psychological shift to your point that has occurred over the last 18 months because of what the market has done. we are so concerned the retail investor is not in. nobody is excited. now it's the opposite. we're worried if animal spirits have gotten this ahead of itself. it's very hard to figure out when it's going to stop swinging in one direction and coming back but i think the twitter ipo is endemocratic for the newfound taste. >> and you look depending if you go 18 months like josh is talking about or just go to today, this morning when we had the horrible consumer confidence number, that was a horrible number. why was it there? because of the dysfunction in washington d.c.
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i agree with you, josh. i think these are some positives that could drive us higher. it's not just the market going on its own. it's induced by fed or by the money on corporate balance sheets or by shorts that have been forced to cover. i will take any of the above. >> yeah. right? >> i say it all the time. >> let's move on and get some afterhours action. >> the guidance coming in well below consensus. piper jaffray senior research analyst joins us on the fast line. gene, great to have you with us. would you recommend that investors use any of these pull backs as buying opportunities for the stocks?
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linked in has a prime valuation, too. but it's an unchallenged leader in terms of the overall social market in the recruiting market. and it's a billion and a half revenue business today. if you're looking for the opportunity tomorrow morning, i think it's buy link'd in. >> i want to follow up on yelp versus linked in or yelp versus any other social media name. when you buy based on the size of the audience, which is clearly the game we're playing, isn't it important to pick a name that has got a defensible business position? meaning almost anyone can knock off what yelp has built. facebook could start offering reviews and blow them out of the game. if you're a colleged aged person and you want to start your career, you would probably give
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up all other social networks before you give up linked in. does that speak that competitive position to you? >> if you're just going to look at how wide or deep or however you measure, it's linked in. white collar is on there and you are irrelevant if you're not on linked in. >> why are you willing to look past the revenue guidance. >> they have typically beat their guidance by 6% over the last three quarters. 9% last year. basically implies that they are guiding 1% up. the reason we are willing to look beyond it is this is is a theme story. you just own it because they are the huge mark.
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they will ratically recruit it and that's why you have got to look beyond this guidance. >> real quick. i love linked in. it has been my favorite play in social media. it's clearly still a growth stock according to you and valuation. it's pretty ridiculous. given the fact that it has had a couple of problems, is that going to be a growing concern? >> i think you look past it. again you go back to the size of their business. they are unchallenged. no one is going to touch them. it's just better for recruiters to -- it saves them money. this can continue to grow at 30% for the next several years. >> all right. got to leave it here. >> what's the trade here? >> i think you stay away from a
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name like yelp. they are bringing back. offering $250 million in a share i would much rather buy twitter than any of this even at a discount. i don't get them. >> i would say the same thing on angie's list. i'm not a fan. does anyone believe that that is a great model? >> this is one that i argued against murf. congratulations. you are dead right. i thought this was going to be a good quarter. just as it came back from the initial sell off they announced the secondary so i would get to the side. >> let's check in with domonic. >> i hope you like your spicy buffalo wings in terms of price action.
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earnings and sales that both beat. lower cost for chicken wings. the cost will meet its goal of having 1,000 buffalo wild wings restaurants. >> all right. thanks for that. dr. jay we knew that spot wing prices were down and that would be a real help. >> that was a call by you, melissa lee. >> melissa on earnings squad said and she was 100% on as far as this cost coming down as big. but i believe it was the liquor sales, melissa. particularly perhaps into the late summer and early fall that really drove them here. they are hitting on all cylinders. $56,000 a week. >> 56,000? >> dollars per week per store. and buffalo wild wings used to be bw 3 which stood for buffalo wild wings and wac.
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>> none of these people know what a wac is. >> that is why it is bw 3. >> it was one of the people involved in the very beginning. >> how could i not know that. >> i thought it was a be fun wac. >> maybe it is. >> just a broader point on buffalo wild wings. i think this is a really good investment lesson in general. any time you see that if you believe the stock has merit, that's a buying opportunity. >> and apple taking a dip after yesterday's earnings report. how high do the analysts think they will go? that and much more ahead on fast. ♪
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>> let's get a market flash this time on interactive corps dream works. >> let's get you caught up first on iec, the names behind ask.com and okaycupid. but sales came in well below expectations and that is taking its toll on the stock. dream works animation shares headed in the opposite direction. so i don't know how much you liked the movies, but at least they helped the stock go up. >> i don't know what the help they are. >> let's talk about dream works. now it's pushing off again. huge short interest. i still think despite the move,
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it is going higher. for more on this, let's bring in brian marshall. good to see you in person. is this a reason to get into the stock? >> we don't think so. this is the only company we have a cautious rating on. it's simply too big to grow. outsourcing as well as insourcing. sounds ironic but that's what is going on with the company. this is nothing new. at the end of the day we just don't notice much going on. >> you noted that it saw weakness in terms of both services as well. this could indicate lack of
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relevance. is this truly an ibm problem? >> i think investors are starting to question this. i actually think the same thing is happening to ibm potentially. they are frankly tired. >> they were giving guidance three or four years out and they were spot on? and now they don't have the visibility. what's the right multiple and price? >> if you want to assume that longer term, $16 is the real operating earnings of the company, i think we're looking at something south of $150 a share. i still think there is material downside given the lack of real interesting trends? >> does this company need to be
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broken up? you just said that customers are having a hard time. one of the main reasons that larry bought sun micro systems larry said i want one of those so you can't knock out my software overnight. i think this is something that ibm can't undo. not a bad thick. >> is it a short in you view? >> we have a cautious rating so i do think there is downside in
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these levels. you're seeing significant misexecution and that's something that we have not seen at ibm in a long, long time. they're really pushing the envelope with respect to trying to generate double digit earnings growth. that's a tough thing to do. >> let's talk the reaction of the stock today. were you surprised at the reaction? >> a little disappointed. >> you guys were pretty bullish on the quarter. we both thought the stock would probably close around 540. it did sell up a little bit. i thought the guidance was solid. we still think fair value to $600. thanks for coming by. >> there is no two ways around
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it. it's a water fall. which seems to be an important level. technically on a short term basis. on a longer term basis, earnings were down yooefr but the rate of decent has lessenned. it's somewhat positive and there was stablization in place. i think the stock's okay. but for traders, it probably goes a little lower. >> shouldn't be much better than an okay chris mast. >> what was the bets like? for ibm and apple? >> you all got kimmed in apple.
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back near that 50 day moving average. that's probably where you have support. they sell calls against it to take in some of the premium. >> the tone on the linked in conference call is confident. there has been a lot of talk about mobile. stressing that 38% of the company's visitors are from mobile devices. it is their first add platform. they say that they have been very pleased with the results. they also say that mobile is driving about 2/3 of sponsored updates revenue.
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they are talking a lot about the future. >> thanks so much. you have been positive on linked in for some time. is this your chance to get in? >> i think that's where you get worried. the answer is yes, every single time it's been an opportunity. i'm concerned that you have trouble for the last three time, 255, 260. i think it will make another push higher. i still think it's the best way to play the space. >> we just wrote them a check today. we're not calling the "new york post". >> all right. coming up next, is tesla's momentum sputtering? we will find out why it's
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there was no positive as far as from the government saying the d.o.j. was looking away saying it's done. we're not going to let them do this settlement if they don't agree to all of the terms. the stock kept lifting all the way up. >> all right. next up from the big banks to big tech, yahoo! catching upgrade to outperform market performance. >> the analyst community is pretty mixed on it. he is basically saying that it is worth $190 billion if it comes public in the next six months or so. so they are basically getting the yahoo! business for free. i think people want to own it. i think it's a buy at 30.
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sit going to be one of the biggest businesses in the world and it's chinese. >> if it lists here in the u.s., you will still have as many doubts as a chinese stock that trades elsewhere? >> i'm tell youg that this road show is not going to be a piece of cake. the chairman of this company a few year ace go i think it stinks. >> finally, 3d systems better. that stock now up 66% this year. i have got to tell you something. the price option today was incredible. i have got to tell you, 30% of
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the flow here is short and they are creaming. earnings up 20% year-over-year. every segment that counts better than expected. i like everything about this game. the margins on these things, everything that they sell, the lowest margin item that they sell is the printer and that margin is in the low 40s. >> you want so get in the way of this bus? this is this month's tesla. i think it will signal when it's done. i don't think it's done yet. >> think about the old school printing. these companies had high margins. hold on. hold on. as it becomes mature these
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things trade i don't know if that's next month or in three years. these names are under underst d understood. they are earning money. they make money. they have huge industrial customers. >> it just started. >> just at the tip of the iceberg. what are the options markets saying? >> there are not a lot of big betters on this thing. when we do get a big sell off or a big rally, then we get them in. i have not been as involved in these. they show up occasionally. more or less around the earnings. >> all right. and let's move on to our next
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trade here. the stock is down about 18%. there are reasons for that. then a german magazine. then the stock was overvalued and when it seemed it couldn't get worse, a fire in a model s down in mexico. he downgraded from a neutral to an overweight just when the stock was about to head south. ben, great to have you with us. >> thanks for having with us. >> that was a great call. i want to separate the valuation. in terms of the fires, is this a reason to be concerned about the story? >> fundamentally, you mentioned the valuation twice so far that we have seen.
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you add that up all together, i think you have room for what is occurring with the stock right now and it is acting like it's broken. >> where should it be valued? >> let's wait and see when they report next week. i hear numbers up above 6,000. i think they will be somewhere near 53, 5500. this is the first quarter they started shipping. that is a logistical issue. >> tesla's 20 market cap, does it deserve to be 40% of the market. you can't put into context the amount of cars it sells compared to gm. is gm too cheap? just for the folks out there in the viewing audience.
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>> we have to see what tesla is worth and how they can execute. my price target at 18 7 really, it underlined perfect execution on the company for the next couple of years and i don't know if we're going to see that going into this quarter here. i think it's a wait and see what the valuation should be. >> in terms of the german magazine, is that a key market for tesla because there are three other vehicles, electric vehicles already on the market there. >> it's something that i think they want to go head to head with bmw. his intent is to sell 10,000 model ss. that is a direct attack on bmw. but that's what he is choosing to do. >> all right. great to speak with you. thanks for your time. great call on tesla.
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>> i would say from a trading perspective, from that september 30th high, the stock sold up 20%. if you just look at the chart, the reverse a.m. today was pretty important. you have earnings november 5. i think you have probably given today's momentum shift. i think that you probably get some of the losses back and who the heck knows what happens with earnings. >> you and pete have been pretty negative on it, dan, when it was up there at 200 and you guys have been right. i have no position. this is a very tough hold and they get paid for selling some of the calls.
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>> welcome back to fast money the dow and the s&p 500 hitting all time highs today always great to see you. >> hey, melissa. thanks for having me. >> in terms of consensus, do you anticipate changes as to when tapering will begin based on this meeting? what i'm going to be looking at is the consensus has shifted towards early next year.
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i think what they will see is an acknowledgment that the economy has not lived up to their own expectations. if they are revising down their forecast into the end of the year that will create all kinds of new questions. st there any voice within the fed that will actually say maybe i's a structural job change and maybe we at the fed have no control over whether or not companies hire? >> one of the problems and they have now is there are so many choices. there are al qaeda a number of people who think that their policies are not doing any good. i think the mainstream view inside the fed is that it's help ing but look what happened this
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summer when they talked about pulling away. rates rose and stock prices fell. looks like we got a slow down in the housing sector. that means the presence of it maybe does help a bit. but they are really, there was a real desire earlier this year to try to get on with pulling this back and they have got a problem on their hands now. put aside that we had all of the government shut down drama. the fed was expecting to see a pick up in growth and it's just not materializing. >> you know, john, the dow closed at all time highs. we can't forget that quantitative easing thaz been in the background. is there any pressure whatsoever
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with the economy middling on to keep the pedal on in terms of continuing the easing? >> they are focused on financial conditions. they think those conditions help i don't think they are that worried about -- let me put it this way. if the economy were getting a lot stronger and highering was really picking up and they pulled back and it caused a pull back in the stock market, they could tolerate that. what they want to see are jobs. that's not the ultimate goal. >> thanks for your time and analysis. all right. delta, united, southwest all
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closed the day on a high note are and some are predicting clearer skies ahead. >> it was up, up, and away for united. united up just over 5%. a lot of call volume. 50 mers above the daily average. that also meant that we saw call volume in delta. we saw 2.5 calls trade. with total option volume just over two times the average daily volume. >> could you lay out that trade on united? >> there was a. >> thatly interesting trade in united. you don't have to trade calls you can also sell puts. a really interesting put sell saw a big seller of the november 32 strike puts. they sold those at 55 cents.
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no matter what happens that means their break even is 31.45. so this put seller expects united to be above the 31.45 break even. >> thanks for that. let's get more from the linked in conference call. hey, julia. >> the big question is where is the next leg of growth going to be? some of the growth is going to come from china, calling china a significant opportunity. and weiner wants to make sure they really think through how they handle their presence in china right now their presence is only in english. it is implied there might be a move towards online jobs. they are focused entirely around knowledge workers and proinvestigational rolls. you can expect that to expand. that says part time and more
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blue collar jobs. >> let's take a check on shares of daidu. almost 6% is the move. glitches in the roll out of obama care could have a major impact. we've got the health care trade next. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box. ♪ all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. ♪
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>> record highs as well as the dough and not just the major indexes. >> the fed may have to downgrade their outlook. i just don't know how we're here. >> let's move on. delays and glitches earlier there was this to say. >> etna alone will pass through to its customers over $1 billion worth of taxes and fees
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associated with affordable care act that need to go into pricing. they cause us to rethink the fundamentals. great too spe speak with you, s >> in terms of the impact on insurers on etna, isn't a delay just a delay and whatever enrollments they may have are just pushed out into the future? >> the entire implementation of affordable care act or obama care is quite a remarkable effort. now, i think these are going to get solved. it's becoming clearer to the world or to the americans for sure what is going on here. we got a big transfer program
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from the rich to the poor. that is well accepted in the united states such as income tax and inheritance tax. in this case we have a transfer of wealth from the healthy people to the ill. but nobody who is healthy wants to sign up because they are healthy and don't have to pay so they would take the $95 short term penalty. and i think the insurance pool is going to turn out to be quite unattractive. >> i guess my question is if we believe that these glitches will be solved and obama care will be rolled out as intended, then there is just a minor blip in the stocks but they will see that enrollment pick up later. sounds like you're saying that perhaps it will never reach what it was meant to be in that it will be a drain eventually on these insurers because we are not getting the healthy
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participants to offset the cost of the ill. >> i don't know if it ever gets repealed. it's been endorsed in a couple of ways. but i think as we actually live it, people may find it's not what was sold to them or what was expected. i think the mechanics of signing up work. but i think that the policies of it all and i think it becomes politically less attractive. it has been a coin flip as it is. and i suspect it goes the other way. whatever benefit of obama care, we are expected. i would tend to stay away from
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exposures. new technologies and new drugs and things like that. but to participate you can do them in the health insurers and also the hospital companies. >> okay, sam, thanks for your time. s sam. a lot of great issues brought up by sam. >> great trades throughout. check out two names that we have mention mentioned look at zimer holders and striker. the dust seems to have settled. we're on it early. now get out towards the end. >> coming up next, a look at some of today's biggest moments right after this.
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strategy. >> he has been bearish for four years. >> i continue to be amazed and impressed by the customer. they figure out how to adapt and adjust and support their families. >> headline down one tenth of 1%. but strip out autos, it pops up to the expected level of up four tet tets. employers are having a very difficult time making decisions. >> to the millions of americans who attempted to use health care.gov, i want to apologize to you that the website has not worked as well as it should. >> the nasdaq composite index as well as others have not updated
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since 11:53 a.m. but the stocks are moving and trading. >> i grew up frying to separate emotion of markets from what the reality is eventually it will catch up. >> it's alive. i'm lifting the lid of the kas cat for items that can bring new life to your portfolio. "mad money" is coming up next. washing-machine hoses every five years? what if you didn't know that you might need extra coverage for more expensive items? and what if you didn't know that teen drivers are four times more likely to get into an accident? 'sup the more you know, the better you can plan for what's ahead. talk to farmers and get smarter about your insurance. ♪ we are farmers bum - pa - dum, bum - bum - bum -bum ♪
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final trade, doc? >> >> my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. my job is not just to entertain, but to help you save money. only a few times in my career have i seen online companies, actual, ancient work horse stocks and resource companies put on major moves on very
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