tv Fast Money CNBC October 30, 2013 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
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♪ >> live from the nasdaq in new york city's time square, this is fast money, america's post market show. here is tonight's line-up. easy money is still flowing but is the bernanke boost for stocks running out of steam? shock and awe. it's a stock that is locked in stunning return so far this year. our traders are here tonight. let's get straight to our top
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story tonight. facebook surging 15%. what's the break down here? >> a big surprise. this is really a mobile story. the company delivered stronger than expected mobile results. this is driving an upside surprise over the boerd. revenue from advertising grew 6 6%. now that's more than double what it was in the year ago period and 6 cents better than expected. average revenue per user came in about 172. significant growth and it really all comes down to mobile.
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what he is watching is the success of sponsored stories. it seems to really be working. so the earnings call is starting shortly and we will probably get new updates. very impressive in terms of their mobile growth. >> the percent of total advertising revenue from mobile is 49%. that's up from 41% in the most recent quarter. and in the first quarter this year. that's about six months ago it was 30%. now it's about half. a year ago, mobile was 14%. that's a huge jump from 14% to 49% right now. >> thanks for the update.
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we will check in with you later on in the hour. what is the trade here? it seems like, you know, the second quarter was reported. it put to rest some concerns. third quarter comes out. numbers much better than expected. >> look at what google did and facebook. i thought the bar was incredibly high. this is very positive for these guys. in terms of where they are. they have a lot of room to grow in there. congratulations to these guys. i do think if you look at what is going on, these guys if you want to look at where earnings are coming, it's right there. this stock is not what i would buy tomorrow. these guys are showing montization. >> where would you buy it? if at all?
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is that a fair number? if they can grow at these numbers and at this rate, yes. >> the users were also up 25%. they were concerned that they were losing daily active users. you don't jump into this tomorrow. if you're in it, update your facebook status to excited. you're going to have to wait a few days to see if the 10, 15% holds up. >> face book said it to me. >> that was the promise at the ipo back in may of 2012 that this was a company that would transition from a desktop to a mobile environment.
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increase in mobile adoption and mobile ad growth. i would not expect the stock to keep skiking up like this. >> once we enter the next first quarter it will get harder and harder? >> listen to what you just said. they didn't have a mobile app at the beginning of the year that allowed users to kay tore and tailer to their clients. no one is sitting down at a desktop and shopping any more. no one is looking to is do what their friends are doing. >> those users were on their desktops right? there were no ads. where they were going to get
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behind is everybody knew that it was a desktop proposition. i think this is very positive. this was the big question. they have to grow in video and figure out how to figure this out. >> that's the key. what's the next catalyst here. last quarter they surprised. this quarter you start saying okay. they have got that mobile figured out. until you find that out, maybe you know it already. >> let's bring in bob peck. he will be with us the full hour. conference call, so he's here at the nasdaq just at the side of us. what's your take on the quarter and to get to the concern here on the desk, what is that catalyst for the next quarter. what's going to take us higher in the fork.
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>> number two is mobile. mobile continued to grow. 49% of revenues. the third thing was the operating margins. that surprised investors to the positive sides. that's an increment a margin of 60%. you are seeing top line growth and more profitable growth. all of the cruising, every single region accelerated. to answer your question about what's coming next is video ad revenues coming this year, 2014. instagram and graph search again. which is like a google type product you will see in 2014. >> so $55 is your target. let's say right now, do you hang on to it? what do you do? >> the numbers are just out. an easy way to think about it is
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if you look at some of the top fliers that are growing this fast you see revenue multiples north of 15. >> you mentioned operating margins. there was a lot of volatility in the stock. as they started to spend on hiring and new initiatives, we saw operating expenses go up and profitability go down. do you expect as they enter in some new initiatives that we will see that volatility that we saw in google? >> that's a great question. quite honestly, yes. i think the street expected it this quarter. i do think you will see them invest in the future. more of an invest in the long term attitude. you will see more of that on the
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call. >> and bob, what's your number one question? >> i want to hear about the investment. >> we will check back in with you this hour. let's go to mike here. what's the trade? would you be inclined to get in facebook? >> one thing -- i would president. i'm more of a value guy and these valuations are heady for me. with their eps beat, it's actually not a more expensive stock than it was when it closed earlier today. how do we get there? the 18.5 cents a share that the street was looking for appropriate represented about 20% over the course of the next 12 months trading about 50 times that number. this is a pretty good beat. you know, at 56, 57 bucks it's still just 50 times next earnings.
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looking at maybe something that is growing at a faster rate. we did a trade about this one and it is playing out as we expected. >> all right. thanks for that. take a look at that facebook after initial giant 15 mers pop off of its highs in the afterhours. let's go around the horn here and let's be clear here. let's include twitter in the mix. >> i think they are in the most powerful position. it is clearly the most dominant realtime social media. they got clubbed based upon their guidance. i don't buy it tomorrow but i look at the growth. if facebook validated the move to mobile, look at what facebook has done. i'm not necessarily spooked by today's numbers because their growth was 60%. you don't buy it tomorrow but you do buy it.
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>> i'm a twitter fan. i think when you look at twitter they have so much room to expand. there is a small slice of the social media that people are using right now on twitter. they have just started to do the mobile ads. if you can extrapolate from facebook you have got like twitter. >> at what price, though? is it on a 25% pop? is it within the range you like it? >> if you can get some on the ipo, which most people cannot, then i think that's probably dee cent. i generally let them sit for a month or so and see what's going to do and then i get into them. >> google. it's the elter statesman of the group. really decent growth here. valuation not stretched. very different than some of the others. maybe doesn't have the huge upside. on the downside protection side
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i would rather be with google. >> there is an etfsocl. it's the global act social media index. one of the largest components of it. it's 13% facebook. and then some international stuff is the second one. i don't really love buying google at an all time high. >> tiny. $97 million in market cap. i will kidty might not be there. let's get a market flash here. also a big mover in the afterhour session. >> that is putting it mildly. expaid ya is moving higher in the afterhours. it is surging. posting better than expected sales. this stock, it took an absolute
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beating back in july falling from about a $65 down below 50. it's getting a good chunk of that back. >> let's take another check on facebook. an initial giant 15% pop although still holding on to nice gains here. the conference call about 13 minutes in. we will get headline fls that call. we will find out who is listening to the starbucks call and why that stock is sinking in the afterhours. where will we go from here? chief u.s. eeoc if is strategy who is running quality control on big names straight ahead on fast. bny mellon combines investment management & investment servicing,
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potential in search saying they want to be able to have people ask a question of their community and have that answered. he also said, and this is really interesting, that he expects to develop more distinct services that are separate aps that would live separately on your phone to allow people to share information with different groups of friends. with everyone or with a smaller group. engages with more than one ad per week. talking about some of the success in advertising. i'm going to tune back in. >> thank you so much for that update. >> she joins us now on the fast line. what do you with your position? >> i wouldn't. not after these results. but in full diz cloe sure we were trimming ahead of the quarter because we were up 92%.
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these numbers are really impressive. you guys revenues up 60%. and they grew in all regions. operating -- just two quarters ago -- if you recall in the -- that's the reason the stock got hit really hard. people didn't understand how the leverage was. you can see how significant the operating leverage is. i would point out daily active users were pretty much in line with very strong growth. rolling revenues at 6 %. and they really only have a 4.2%
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market share in the digital space. that is a substantial growth driver for this stock so i would hold on here. >> just a short while ago. maybe facebook could be the atm for people who want to put on a twitter position. does this quarter end that chat sner. >> no doubt about it. there is not enough twitter out there for people to sell their facebook. if you want to ride for a year or two more you will have to stick with facebook especially after the potential in different regions as they grow overseas. >> i'm concerned about twitter being an atm for people inside of facebook. it's something you have to watch. >> let's get to another afterhours mover. jane? >> hey, melissa, they're talking
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about a lot of things that they are rolling out for the next year but not talking about why the stock is done. stock is down after hours. guidance was a little light. fiscal full year projected. but the year just ended on the bottom line to a report 63 cents a share. and in the quarter, consolidated operating margins hit a record 17.6%. >> i think the greatest threat to the american consumer, unfortunately, is the situation in washington. when the government was facing a shut down and the threat of default, no small or large
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business can be immune from that. we are in a unique position where starbucks has become a very important part of people's lives. we're not immune either. there is is a new one coming to seatt seattle, too. tea takes longer than coffee to make and it may not be a big breakfast plate. and starbucks has new baked goods that will be in all 7,000 stores. shults said stay tuned to the testing of starbucks carbonated drinks. that is a $100 billion market it wants to get into. and holiday drinks start friday including a new ginger bread
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latte. >> there have been 200 psls sold in the decades of existence. >> 200 million psls? that's amazing. the fact that i know that the abbreviation is psl is pathetic. i read that on twitter. >> pumpkin lattes are pathetic. you absolutely buy on this weakness. but the global comps is what you want to own. ultimately where these guys are going, this is one of the largest positions because of where they can go. india will double in sales and could be five times that in another five years. this is where the growth area was. if you want to trade these things, they are both trading at 35 times. >> that's really the opportunity here.
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i's pretty simple to me. everybody goes there all the time. do you ever not see a line there? >> it's up 50%. get in there and do it. >> that's what i just said. >> i'm just saying. he's already there. one of the biggest components in his global portfolio. >> actually selling down a little bit but ultimately not. >> it's a great brand. i very much admire the business and model. i just wonder, touching its all time high, do some of the analysts feel like it's a little frothy, no pun intended. but they have got to pull back just a little bit? you don't need to get in there right now after the close? >> you poo pooed the trade.
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where would you get in. you like the stock you just don't like the valuation? >> i think tim is correct when you think about the products. you know, i'm just not a buyer of things at all time highs. i'm a growth at a reasonable price sort of guy and this is not cutting it right now. >> keep going. i could talk about this all night. >> clearly. let's move on for now. eat your heart out fashion week. we found a fashion show made of everyone's favorite dessert. and which candy stock might be making investor's mouths water. here is is a look at what is driving the game so far this year.
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>> take a look at the big move that we are watching. this on the back of an earnings revenue beat. >> i think you have got to be careful here. they obviously beat and raised up a little bit here. filling in a lot of the earnings gap here from q2 here. i don't think you go and chase the names. kind of losing the momentum here. i would be careful here. >> stocks sold off as the fed held steady. how key is the fed to the record breaking rally? joining us now is tom lee, chief u.s. equity strategist. >> thanks for having me. >> how important is it. the corollary question to that is when the fed does pull away the markets could see some head
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winds. >> that's right. we got a taste of that earlier this year. it plays a pretty big role. i think at the end of the day, investors need to watch the ten year. they should be comfortable being involved with equities and hopefully staying cyclical when they feel comfortable. >> what is behaving? >> i think anything below three is a level that we don't think is doing a lot of damage to consumers. it's not really doing a lot of damage to financial markets. i'm comfortable being long equities. >> what part of that move could be the cyclical component of a rally you like? if i see the ten year going over 3% isn't that telling me that the world is is a better place? >> in a different context, maybe looking at pick up in growth rates, maybe a better feel about
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inflation. i think the way interest rates behave will play a role. >> i want to talk about the kinds of stocks you are advising investors to buy recently. there are many, many stocks, let's be clear, in this screen that came up. but a couple really stood out. netflix and facebook. these are poster children of momentum that we have seen in terms of momentum stocks. positive earnings revision stocks do extremely well. it relates to performance chasing. we know there is a lot of performance chase especially among hedge funds. the stocks you are seeing when companies beat and raise, stocks make big moves. those are the names investors
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want to look for. >> the other side of that is that there is not a lot of value in this market. that is what it would imply. do you see any value out there? >> i think there is a lot of value. i will just throw out some areas. and top line growth is over 6%. you can see that in the financial sector. i think there is still a lot of bargains out there. >> stocks are pretty much at records right now. i want to play a sound bite from bill gross. here is what he said. >> i think the markets are bubbling on all asset prices. and you know, steve has pointed out, profit margins are bubbly.
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to the extent that any of them can be sustained is the ultimate test in terms of tapering. >> do you agree and if you don't, why is bill wrong? >> i don't agree with the statement. people typically look at yields or spreads being record type. and i would say, well, if we're an all time high, why is the pe only 15 times scored. i don't think the market is expensive. there couldly could be expensive stocks but i don't think the index is expensive. >> bmp k, do you think you're bubbly? >> yes. market cap to gdp, you have had probably three times over 100%.
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>> the stock is losing a bit of altitude in the afterhours shape. >> i think i know what is driving that movement. facebook is losing its cool factor with younger teens. they were digging into this to see what there was into this. younger teens, very youngest users did see a decrease in daily active users. they did acknowledge that there is a decrease. they said not to make much of this data but it is interesting that a quarter ago, three months ago mark zuckerberg said they saw no increase and now they acknowledge there is weakness for the very youngest facebook users and they will be working to adrez that and trying to develop new services and tools.
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. an interesting shift. back over to you. >> you see facebook shares up only 1.7% in the context of a 15% prior pop. this really gets at the issue of facebook losing its cool, maybe losing out to twitter. >> i have daughters that are 8 and 10 and they have ipads. they have no interest in having a facebook account. they have twitter accounts. just go ask young kids today. instagram is maybe that trojan horse. >> coming up neck -- you know what? i think we will bring in bob from suntrust to check in with him. what is your impression of the concession that they are losing some of the users out there? >> i think the big take away is that the teens are stable. they do end up going to the
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other platforms. they did give us some data on the call. they did say clicks were up 17% and pricing up about 42%. it was interestingaccelerate. the u.s. had pricing up 60%. 6-0. they don't set pricing. >> all right. thanks for the update. keep an eye on aig. we have got the trade, though, today. then shares, huge day today pushing the gains above 100% year to date. don't miss our exclusive interview. as we take a break and look at facebook's afterhours move. regarding the loss of daily active users among teens. we will get you updated on the other side of this break.
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management services beat profit estimates and sales estimates. but it suspended its quarterly dividend as it looks to maintain financial flexibility. another stock that is taking a hit, the medicaid company reported earnings in sales that both missed analyst estimates. cited increased costs for things like building out call centers. >> citing a lack of ability to compete against online competitors and concerned about all the competition. >> from what i gather, this call is going terribly. absolutely terribly. the suspension of the dividend itself is really horrific asdom said it. a big butt. i mean the other thing about this business is if they can't get it right in the first quarter, it's such an important
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quarter for them. they are entering the diet session very cautiously. >> let's switch gears in case you missed some of tonight's top moments. >> it defines a whole concept of what insurance is. you're not going to bring 35 million more people in the pool for care and say we're going to do it cheaper. >> i know the website is not working well. they will fix it. i don't know exactly when but it will get fixed and people will have the same opportunity on the
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level that they are having in kentucky. >> who was in charge as it was being built? at that team, who is the individual? >> michelle schneider. >> she is the one responsible for this debacle? >> excuse me, michelle schneider is not responsible for the debacle. hold me accountable. i'm responsible. >> if this roll out is this bad on the website, what's it going to mean for getting doctor appointments or actually health care that people deserve and need? >> the federal open market ex committee -- at a pace of 40 billion a month and long term treasuries at 45 billion a month. >> nobody is losing their right to health care coverage and no insurance company will be able to deny you coverage or drop you all together. those days are over and that's the truth. >> a lot ocomments, obviously,
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about the affordable care act. obama care as its known. >> i mean, that certainly dominated the news today but there are quite a few other things. we saw the fed decision out there. that moved the marks quite a bit. a lot of people thought that the dollar might get weaker. it didn't. a lot of people were thinking that the fed statement was a lot more hawkish than anticipated. >> now we discuss today. let's look ahead to tomorrow. he walks down about 40% but could earnings give this a boost? >> if you look as these earnings, a headline of 77. asset sales make things better. we know it would have happened and their tax rate went up. if you think that there is a savior in copper, it is not. this is 95% gold.
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>> it's actually get up 50%. after the close, karen. >> this has been a really good one. i have to say the easy money has been made here already. that's mostly down and now they will turn more to earnings and that is a pe multiple. it's not that cheap. we're coming into a new phase. >> coming up next, we're talking about the just released earnings and shocking gains. and tomorrow, let's take a look at october's s&p leaders.
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we've completely integrated every step of the process, making it easier to try filters and strategies... to get a list of equity options... evaluate them with our p&l calculator... and execute faster with our more intuitive trade ticket. i'm greg stevens, and i helped create fidelity's options platform. it's one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account. >> let's get back todom. >> visa is down in the afterhours. this is the world's biggest credit card company, right?
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the board of directors there has authorized a new $5 billion stock buy back. >> also purchase volumes were up and that could have voted well for the likes of a mastercard or visa, but apparently not. >> dan got all up in my grill about buying stocks at a year high. this is a stock that i wouldn't buy at the year highs. also talked about tep pid. >> dan, would you take the other side of the train? >> listen, i think that's a rati
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ration. i don't think you commit new money to these name heers. >> according to some savvy traderser more gains could be in store. >> one of the things you could look at is unusual volume. today, he was definitely saying that several names had more. you saw it in bae systems overseas and we saw knit bit in boeing. all of that was very interesting. >> the one that was most interesting to me, number one because you can actually trade it in the u.s. was boeing and the volume was actually higher than usual. that trade was the december 135, 140 call spread. the people who were buying that call spread are betting that bow something going to be higher
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than 136 and they are committing a decent amount of premium. >> you would buy these at all time highs? >> no. but when i look at the defense sector, i look at rti. it's specialty metals. these are places i want to be. i think it's very bullish. >> big gains for best buy. someone on this desk told you to take profits back in august. did they get out too early or are they standing by that call. that's next on "fast". [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats.
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always great to speak with you. >> thanks. good to be here. >> long term business strategy is now intersecting several trends which we believe have hit a tipping point. what do you mean by tipping point. does that mean a shift in the mix of your business towards these areas? are these the biggest growth areas in your business. >> a few year as ago there was lot of resistance. in order to protect themselves to have a record of what they do. you have got to put their data somewhere and the same way that technologies have ripped through other markets. we see the same opportunity here in law enforcement to really revolution niz the way they
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think about i.t. >> you recently got a big new order from new mexico i believe. but you announce a bunch of price cuts. what is the push pull in terms of new orders and also the reality that a lot of police departments are facing very tight budgetary environments? >> as you can see, our order bookings tripled. you know, the camera business is not what is particularly interesting from a business perspective. by bringing the price of our cameras down, we believe that positions us to accelerate market adoption, to take price off the table and frankly to garner market share. >> isn't this like a raiser
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blade model? you're making the money up on a much higher margin software business. >> you know, the similarities may be more we have devices that become so much more useful when you also use the service that comes with them. in our case it's storing and handling digital evidence for a police department. we don't view the near term profitability on the cameras would be short sided. we're about the long term growth. once you're in, not only can we sell from our products and services today, every future service we develop. >> got to leave it there. rick smith, the co-founder. this is at least a six year high. >> j.p. morgan noted before the numbers they were upgrading the stock. they saw old segments outperforming. as you said in the cameras
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business, this is why you expect repeatable business. the growth there is what is going to drive other parts of the business. >> let's take a look at facebook. on those comments from the cfo about losing some of the teen daily active users. we did watch facebook turn negative. it is hugging the flat line. let's get back to bop for his take on this. why the jitters over that comment? >> i don't think that's it, actually. i think it pulled back on the question ad exposures. i think that's the right thing to do for the long term value of the stock. number two is it didn't apply to mobile. i think it's the right thing to do for the long term. >> all right. thanks. first move tomorrow when we come back. stay tuned. announcer: where can an investor
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that's why i'm with scottrade. announcer: ranked highest in investor satisfaction with self-directed services by j.d. power and associates. at a ford dealer with a little q and a for fiona. tell me fiona, who's having a big tire event? your ford dealer. who has 11 major brands to choose from? your ford dealer. who's offering a rebate? your ford dealer. who has the low price tire guarantee, affording peace of mind to anyone who might be in the market for a new set of tires? your ford dealer. i'm beginning to sense a pattern. get up to $140 in mail-in rebates when you buy four select tires with the ford service credit card. where'd you get that sweater vest? your ford dealer.
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>> contraryian play, i boat exco. >> our thanks who stuck by us the whole hour and gave us analysis on facebook. in the meantime, don't go anywhere. mad money starts right now. mon starts right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i just want to safe you money. my job is not just to entertain you, but to educate you so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. if you live by the fed's fuel you occasionally have to die by the fed's reasoning for the fueling!
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