tv Mad Money CNBC November 1, 2013 11:00pm-12:01am EDT
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did you know that all four times the s&p not only preserved those gains, but rallied, right into the new year. i don't usually put that much stock in that kind of data. i have to believe there's something to it. that makes me want to buy, buy, buy. the down gained 70 points. and the nasdaq actually declining .06%. probably some stuff to buy there. now we're still in the early season and there are some amazing companies reporting this week. those earnings will be dwarfed by two other events, the pricing of the twitter deal and friday's october nonform payroll report. so let me tell you how you're going the have to navigate these
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waters. i like to be seen at jim cramer wearing his halloween outfit. unfortunately, most of you will not be able to get in because it's too hot and only the biggest commissioned clients are likely to give you any stock. right now you're hearing talk that the company might be valued as much as $15 billion. they could turn out to be the song of facebook. 6 ever since the disastrous facebook ipo, i have made it my mission to save you from -- price to be paid for any stock and at the moment facebook became public at the $38 stock, it was not where it should be.
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i fear that twitter is the thing. first off let me talk about market capitalization where the revenue growth is the -- for example, netflix was valued at a fraction of the $20 billion that was valued. the ultimate game planning for netflix was worth at least $7 billion. i feel the exact same way about twilter. i believe this between is worth about $20 billion to a microsoft or a yahoo!. i don't want to put a dollar amount on the stock, i'm not saying buy it at $28 or $27. because the company's
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underwriter might increase the amount of shares. so that price might be irrelevant. fw twitter is valued at more than that, you'll have to take a pass, even as i trust the banker at goldman-sachs. i trust both of them more than i trust the supporting cast for facebook. this one feels a lot like -- no one expected a barn burner of a number, we don't expect a lot of jobs to be created. the only reason why the stock market goes up at all is that the fed is helping to keep rates low. we should be fine with a weak number, right? but when we actually get that weak number, people say holy cow, the economy is weak.
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and they get really scared. and you know what they do when they're scared, they sell. if you're all nervous about friday, a strong or weak number, you're going to get sell, sell, sell. the market could take a hit, so i need you to plan accordingly. how about individual companies? monday is independent all day and after the close, we're going to hear from three cramer gaves. all these stocks will get hit no matter what, that's the psychological barrier of what -- i would be a buyer of any of them going in. i don't expect any weakness.
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there's a lot of chatter about competitive products as to -- i think you stay on the sidelines. no need to get aggressive yet. aol and cbs. i believe that both are going to put up good numbers. aol's numbers were initially greeted with cat calls, but now, people are buying. the drugstore business has been on fire. unfortunately, cbs has been on fire too. the stock, i don't expect it to pop. whole foods reports on wednesday, i am worried about this one. not because i'm worried about the company, are you kidding? i love the company. the opposite, i worry about the nitpicking, nay saying analysts.
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if the oil trade from earlier in the week works, then we know that we should be putting in the same kind of trade with permian basin company cimarex. we also get solar city. i think this one -- i would buy solar city with some deep in the money calls. if tesla pops, especially. because these two tend to trade together because they are both
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eli musk operations. do i think it's right that they should trade together? yeah, i don't make the rules, so it doesn't matter what i think. again, here's a stock that has run up more than 10% from where it fell. i urged you to buy disney all the way down, just like i'm urging you to do today, that day if disney reacts like it has before. disney here, they reported great numbers, stock goes down, byuy, buy, buy. wait for the usual critics, because we might get a terrific moment in some of the stocks. here's the bottom line for next week, be ready for the twitter deal. beware of the reaction of a too strong or too weak business
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numbers. history in these two cases have repeated itself, well, repeated. i'm so interested in trmd. i was going to buy them the other day, its didn't go through at 20.45. >> it's too high, and i say that becau because i think you did miss the move and you got to take a pass. that's just the way it works. hello, bill, from connecticut. >> caller: thank you for taking my call. i want to talk about the same stock, you took my calls about six weeks ago, abx, with a good
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quarter reporting but the new stock issuance, what do you think now? >> boy, that killed people. now you do that big slug of stocks, i know you need that for liquidity. you still can't touch that. that was really a shame what happened. i know the family, it was just a shame. no, i cannot recommend that. i just can't do it. a little birdie told me that the market will be atwitter about a certain name. also keep an eye on the nonform payrolls and goat ready for disney and whole foods when those negative analysts come out and say that you should sell it. i think you should buy it. coming up, sweet speck, the vast discoveries of domestic oil has put us back in an energy
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discovery of all the shale in the united states over the past few years is the biggest thing out there. it is big enough to transcend this economy. but as much as we adore the story and all the familiar stocks that help us play it out. they're not what you describe necessarily as that cheap anymore. that's why tonight for speculation product, i want to introduce you to a tiny, $560 million oil and gas exploration production company, with a $12 and change stock that's low enough to be cannonized. i'm talking about swift energy. sfy. sam, frank, yankee. one of the hottest oil finds around. even swift itself is one of the most battered and beaten stocks
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you'll find in all of the oil platform. last year it was at $30, now it's at $12.95 and off a whopping 5.6% in today's session alone. a victim of the weakness in the price of oil and the hideous -- even for speculation, the problem with swift is very simple. the company used to be a pure play on natural gas. two areas that have been hideous for years because the united states is simply glutted with natural gas. there's been way too much supply and not nearly enough demand. virtually every other exploration outfit that we talked about as moved away from natural gas. so they jumped ship on the ladder and decided to get oily. swift energy oil despite it's name was really late to the game.
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managers's decided to sell off the other parts -- holding them back, and they're investing heavily in -- even before these asset sales turned swift into a pure play on the eagle that something the oil fields have been dying for. now swift energy expects these asset sales to take place the first quarter of next year. that's a huge catalyst coming in the not too distant future. running all the way through
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texas to touch on new mexico and louisiana. if this shale were a country, it would rank as one of the top 15 oil producing nations in the world. let's just hope it doesn't sucede. right now natural gas accounts for 48% of the company's production -- not only will swift become a pure play on eagle for the sale. the strength has just been masked. swift is roughly 65,000 acres in lasalle and molin county. they had 100% success rate, you heard me, 100%, no dry holes. in other words every time they trial, they're hitting oil here. 3% earnings off a 17% basis. stronger than expected revenues. oil buying is increasing 10%.
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within the eagle swift's initial performance is up by 10%. how many businesses do the cost of goods sold dropped revenues rose. the company has 340 million barrels of oil worth of net resource potential for shale. some of that represents natural gas liquids and they're not that good. but it's still worth something. when you factor in all the -- they have a 1 .6 billion -- when you compare that with swiss eagle with resource potential. you realize this stock is being valued -- sure oil's down a lot in the last few weeks, but give me a break. granted it cost money to extract those resources but currently crude is trading for $95 a
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barrel. swift energy isn't an incredibly hated stock. they considered betting against swift something like shooting fish in a barrel. which is why 23.7% of its shares have been sold short. however, there are some believers here, not the least of them being the ceo, terry, i wish they were buying more of them. even it's still up a buck from where the ceo made his buy. never any moment to declare a victory. he knows it's going to transform on a pure play on the eagle. which will transform swift from
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a low stock to a beloved one. a real change of address. here's the bottom line, there aren't too many stocks that haven't run up enormously. here's a speculative exploration production company that's about to change its stripes in a big way. i would be a buyer before the transformation becomes a reality. so eagle for pure play and that happens in the first quarter of next year, after the break, i'll tell you. coming up, friendly skies? delta's been soaring. now up over 120% this year alone. can it continue to gain altitude? or should you bucked up for turbulence? don't miss cramer's take. [ male announcer ] this store knows how to handle a saturday crowd.
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>> every year is the fourth quarter goes on, certain stocks are anointed by wall street as winners. and those winners have a tendency to keep winning through till the end. money managers who want to boost their performance figure if you can't beat them, well, then join them. so they start buying the best performers out there for the year. then the more cynical managers do the same thing, but for different reasons. they want to show their
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investors to see -- they want to see how smart they were. when they disclose at the end of the year they say, oh, this guy is a bright guy. google has delivered tremendous outperformance. who is to be anointed this year? tonight we're talking about the best performing stock in 2013's hottest breakout sector. the name -- delta airlines. an anointed winner with a lot more room to run. why delta? let's go back seven months to the beginning of march which i did something unprecedented on 2,000 shows of "mad money," after decades of saying the the major airlines should not be owned, i changed my mind. i did it. why? because the facts had changed. in the old days the airlines were untouchable because the entire industry was subjected to endless price wars. that wrecked earnings. just ruined its competition. we hate competition as shareholders but in the last few years there's been a ton of consolidation in the airline space.
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competition is not popular anymore, especially with the high price of jet fuel and scarcity of new planes, or aren't expensive gas guzzlers makes it difficult for new players to enter the market. we have now just four major carriers. delta, united continental, us airways and american. back in march it looked like the last two might be allowed to merge, so i gave the whole group my endorsement and us airways was my favorite because of that amr merger but you could own any of them. since then the stocks have roared. united continental, laggard, is up 23%. southwest rallied 45%. us airways is up 5 4%. and delta, the leader of the pack, has given you a 70% gain. but there's been one big change in the story. in august we learned the justice department might not allow the us airways/amr deal to go through. that's right. that was a big, big change. >> boo! >> apparently they picked up on the fact these airline mergers are terrible for you, the consumer. even as they are fabulous for
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you, the shareholder. of course, fabulous for profits. there's still hope for us airways. earlier this week they agreed to submit to a mediators in the anti-trust case. if you're a like a law professor who specializes in anti-trust situations, you'll see that that was a memo to staff. here we go. "confessions of a street addict," it's great in any language. you don't to want play the airlines with us airways. nope. you want delta airlines. that's dal for you home gamers. not only is delta the best performer in the group but making charter member of 20 13 anointed stock club. but it also wins regardless of if the justice puts the kybosh on the merger delta remains top dog with structural advantages over the rest of the industry. and allow the stock to keepout performing the rest of the group. delta just recently passed united continental as largest carrier by traffic and passengers.
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delta and continental basically have a duopoly with spear your networks and more valuable frequent flyer programs. us airways can't challenge that if they aren't allowed to gobble up amr out of bankruptcy. on the other hand, if the deal does go through, that would be great news for us airways and i will pound the table with it. it's still good news for delta. the reason? if justice lets us airways merge with amr that takes out one major competitor for a consolidated industry that's become a slap-happy oligopoly, raise fees for checked baggage, and put the squeeze on customers if inventive ways we haven't imagined of. spirited air ways, paying to walk down the gang plank. you can probably pay for having your pc on. delta is the best operator in the group. when the company reported last week delivered five cent earnings beat revenue rising 5.7% year over year, and more is to be expected. delta's operating margins what they make on each dollar of sales before interest and taxes is 13.4%.
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that's better than any other airline, save the always, always well-run alaska air. plus the company gave bullish guidance for next quarter which was a real lovefest. delta's premium seats has more first class than anyone in the business. in the pennsylvania -- in the past, listen to this. most seats were given away as free upgrades to coach passengers. last year only 14% of delta's domestic front cabin seats were occupied by paying customers? can you imagine all those people you pass by you thought were rich? no, man, they upgraded. free. this year the company has more than doubled that to 30%. delta's initiatives going they believe will let them take that up to 50% in the near future. they're selling a lot more expensive first-class and business class tickets where you get nothing anyway. the company has been taking out costs left and right. 11 months ago delta laid out blueprint for $1 billion of annual cost savings and on the conference call we learned management is delivering on that blueprint.
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delta has seen strength in the corporate business travel thanks in part to venture with virgin atlanta. latin american ventures are on fire. my favorite thing about delta, they have their own oil refinery to save on the cost of jet fuel refining. this program is in its infancy. it could be a big deal in 2014. delta doesn't have a clean balance sheet. it's an airline. but this is a better balance sheet story. they ended the most recent quarter, $9.9 billion in debt. they beat their target, $10 billion target, for 2013. that's down from an astounding $17 billion in 2009 and $12 billion at the end of last year. they trying to get it down to $7 billion over the next couple of years which is terrific. as delta's balance sheet keeps improving their become more and more pro. the company announced a 500 million stock buyback over the next three years.
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conference call management said buy back is well ahead of schedule, repurchasing $100 billion over the last quarter. even though delta's executing much better than united continental, that's for certain, but it is its closest comparison, both stocks trading at 8.7. both stocks trading the same? if you went to the supermarket and they're selling sirloin steak for the same as grounded beef, what would you buy? you know the answer. bottom line, airlines are still worried. us airways could be the big winner if justice department lets them merge with amr, delta airlines wins either way. it's already delivering stellar returns. dal is the one to own. donna in texas. >> caller: happy friday. booyah too you. >> indeed. big football weekend. what's up? >> caller: i think we should have strawberry ice cream. >> okay. >> caller: everybody should eat strawberry ice cream.
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>> i like the strawberry permian as sets. >> caller: that's good, too. what about this student transportation stock? they have a crazy -- to me, outrageous pe, but they also have a dividend of 8.45. >> right. >> caller: it leaves me confused. >> well, you know what you need to do, dennis gallagher came on the show, ceo, and i thought he defended the dividend. he explained why it can be huge. if you check that interview, i think you'll feel a little more comfortable. although i am -- moisz -- most are not that high, which does raise eyebrows. peter in new york, please. peter. >> caller: jim. how you doing? >> all right. how about you? >> caller: what's the story with hertz? we used to be in overdrive. now it's in neutral.
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>> the last quarter was bad. they said the number they got -- they cut the forecast. we hear them speak this week. i got to tell you, they're hurt by the government shutdown. i don't expect to hear good news again. i think long term because of the amalgamation and consolidation of that industry. richard. >> caller: booyah. >> booyah back to you, chief. >> caller: i wonder why autozone is $400 a share. >> they buy up every share that moves. not figuratively but literally. if you listen to the conference call, it's all about the buy back. number of shares, it's dropped dramatically. the biggest, most impressive buy back on the new york stock exchange. here we go. the airlines are still flying high and things could look very good, very first class for us airways depending on the justice department. it may not matter. it's delta, delta, delta's fly. monday kick off the trading day with "squawk on the street." live from post 9 at the nyse.
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it is time "lightning round." i tell you to buy, buy, buy, sell, sell, sell. and then lightning round. lightning round is over. and then the lightning round is over. and then the lightning round is over. are you ready, skedaddy. lightning round. i'm starting with james in texas. james. >> caller: yeah, cramer. >> yeah. >> caller: my question is about apc. is it still cheap? >> we'll know on monday when they report. i have to tell you, it would be unbelievable if this came down. why? because they have fabulous acreage in the niobrara. let's go to brett in new jersey. >> caller: how are you? >> all right local guy. what's up? >> caller: fifth grade teacher, fortunately i had the opportunity to start investing as a young age.
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i bought ncr. saw it up until it dropped off. what i do here? >> it's an interesting question. bill nuti has done a remarkable job. he has turned it around. i've got to delve into that last quarter because that could be a good opportunity. i have to do more. let's go to john in lie high, please. >> caller: buckeye booyah, jimmy. >> i love your coach. what's up? dalton let me down last night, though. >> caller: dde, cce, what do you say? >> dde is our best way to play the sector. you have to play it deep in the money call because this group is steaming hot. i don't want you to get burned. i need to go to paul in massachusetts. >> caller: hi, jim. i'm calling about opko health. >> it's been recharging. it's come back down. a lot of people got greedy there when it went up to $12. it makes me feel if it goes up
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to that level, cha-ching, cha-ching for a little bit of the action. jude in new jersey. >> caller: how are you? >> how are you? >> caller: your staff is excellent, i have to tell you. >> yes, they are excellent. >> caller: are you still negative in investing in coca-cola? >> i'm just pepsi more. stephanie link is with me, she prefers coca-cola more. i'm an all in buyer of ingenuity. pepsico, buy, buy, buy. bob. >> caller: fantastic booyah to you. this is bob chicago. >> excellent. >> caller: high earning -- >> what? >> caller: groupon. >> i have liked groupon -- people laughed at me when i upgraded that. when you got rid of mason, because i knew ted was from another world.
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they're doing really well and i still think it's a buy. that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the "lightning round." >> announcer: "the lightning round" is sponspored by td ameritrade. a lot of talk about bubbles lately. it is still too easy to call the market a bubble. sell, sell, sell, because of the bubbles. easy. for those who want to burst the bubblicious bubbles. let's deal with the reality of the situation rather than just bubbles. bubble talk is in the air. just doesn't make sense. the bubble! it's been popped! oh! nope. bubbles! of course, that's double bubbles. thank you. i say take some stuff off the table and let the rest run.
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>> i forgot how tasty these really sugary gums are. they're so good. what is this? did someone drop a salad? ♪ >> no. >> oh, you're kidding? ♪ >> it's halloween rapidly approaching, it's time to talk candy. no, not that kind of candy, candies. they were like vampires. these stocks are not zombies, ala walking dead. trick-or-treat, partner.
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today's chevron reported what unfortunately has become a typical blah quarter for this gigantic worldwide oil company. it seems something is always going awry for these colossal company. ceo told you, i quote, third quarter earnings were down from a year ago. pirmly reflecting lower margins for refined products in the current period, end quote. so, even though this oil giant earned $5 billion, or $2.63 in the quarter, its stock was hammered today, closing down to $118.01. this kind of action with majors is happening far too often. it's a disturbing friend because this is an amazing time to be in the oil business as we know from our domestic company numbers but major integrators are too big, too slow to grow and it's very difficult for them to replenish the reserves. they're on treadmill. chevron produced 2.59 million
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barrels of oil equivalent per day. oh, so much more than these smaller independents the market covets. however given the company produced 2.25 million barrels a day last year, you're talking about an increase of only 70,000 barrels. that additional amount of oil produced is much more than most independents could do but from a very huge base. it means very little. in the meantime chevron bought back 2 $1.25 billion of stock which means very little too in the scheme of things. chevron is $224 billion company. who cares about 1.25 billion in stock taking. we want 1.25 billion in new oil found. chevron is like exxon and shell, tons of money, trying to replenish oil pumped while maintaining discipline and spending billions on future products that may not move the needle because they just keep these companies from falling off the treadmill. i do not mean to denigrate exxon or chevron for that they do. i'm not a fan of shell because it is a lesser operator.
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i'm saying they are too big, too unwieldy and they aren't worth stocks owning. you know what they remind me, these three? they remind me of the pharmaceutical companies like pfizer, lily and merck. they don't give you much more than a fixed income equivalent. in contrast, fabulous growth companies like eog, noble and pioneer remind me of celgene, gilead and biogen and not bogged down by infrastructure needed to refine the upstream products that's why i favor these more than exxon, shell and chevron. they can be takeover targets. this week i sat down with dan dickers, about the possibility of all things pioneer natural resources, permian play, actually getting a bid from one of these majors. he took it seriously. saying one of them will pay upwards of $40 billion for this $28 billion company. that's staggering. also a testament to how badly majors need growth. it's always possible the big dogs will split up, break themselves into more digestible pieces because i believe the parts are worth more than the whole.
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until then just like in the pharmaceutical world it's better to own the juniors than the majors. what a shame there isn't something in in between. bristol-myers of the oil world or johnson & johnson. i just don't see one out there that fits the bill. stick with eog, noble, my charitable trust favorite in the group, and pioneer. that true bow charged trio, oddly s where the real value lies. stay with cramer. >> announcer: this veterans day "mad money" honors those who defend our safety by helping defend their financial futures. if you or someone in your family is proudly serving or has served in america's armed forces, we invite you to join our live
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on october 8, one of my diagnoses was on ontx. onconova develops small molecule cancer therapy. while the company reported data that looks compelling in cases known as mds, i have to be a little worried that they'll be competing against cramer fave celgene. i think we have to wait for the phase two study comes out at american society of hematology meeting in five weeks. if the data is good, we'll circle back. on october 9th guthrie in tennessee had me describe ama health care have been sick lately. ahs is a health care staffing company focused on placement of doctors, nurses and other health care professionals. most health care staffing companies have struggled recently, yesterday they posted a solid quarter, very champion health care market too.
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as a result the stock roared and a lot of people bet willing against it, 11.7% higher today. looks like they're cured. as demand with health care improves with implementation of the affordable health care act next year, i think the stock will benefit as an outsourcing play, although again it's controversial and many people think it's a good short. guthrie, thank you for bringing this one to my attention. i think you've got horse cents. that same night sandy in connecticut called about fly leasing with super fly ticker fly. here's a company with a 6% yield that rents aircraft to airline customers. unfortunately, it doesn't live up to the movie, let alone the fabulous curtis mayfield soundtrack. fly reports less than a week from now. i'm concerned the profits may not be so hot as current contracts have disappointed. this is a speculative way to play the industry, which i know i like. i like delta more, though. i think you need to see fly leasing results and get clarity on whether they have the cash flow to sustain that very big
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dividend. on friday october 18th they asked for an early trick-or-treat on tableau. this was a recent ipo. i had to do more research on it. operates in business intelligence, providing cloud-based software to its customers so they can analyze large amounts of dated that. they crushed the estimates, 17 cents earning beat and raising guidance. the stock in response popped 9 % but drifted lower on post-ipo lockup expirations and filings of a big secondary offering. while i see tableau go higher, over the near term the company's secondary offering is doing serious damage as it will double the float, holy cow, a lot of stock, i say take advantage of the secondary to pick, to pick up some tableau software. i think it's a gooth good company.
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now to the tweets. we have to get to these tweets because you've been sending @jimcramer #madmoney and we've been ignoring them. first one is for me, it's about my costume. it caused quite a stir. first is my outfit, my costume is scaring the little ones. perhaps you're familiar with that character. dead mouse. we even heard from @cmwellen. she says love the @deadmousecostume. you're the coolest. let's go to a tweet from @callme17. i interviewed the kroger ceo and i really like it here. let's go to another tweet. this comes from @hardmoneynow, tweeting two years ago took 10% of my portfolio to trade short term. now the 10% portion worth more
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than main portfolio much is thanks to you. i do try to answer or respond. next year i'm going as a bee gee. stick with cramer. not only that but next year i'm going as a bee gee. >> announcer: mad about "mad money"? immerse yourself into cramer's world. while you watch the show with zeebox. on your phone, tablet or on the web, get sneak peeks. go behind the scenes. and join the conversation. download the free app today for the ultimate cramerican adventure. ♪ [ male announcer ] staying warm and dry has never been our priority. our priority is, was and always will be
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i'm jim cramer is welcome to my world. >> i just want to make you money. >> you need to get in the game! >> tens of thousands of miles traveled. >> this new is just getting started. >> it's the sound of american industry. roaring back to life. >> we're going to be -- >> hundreds of ceos. >> my life story can be your life story. >> thousands of callers. >> booyah, jimbo! >> millions of your e-mails and tweets. "mad money" thanks cramerica for being with us for over 2,000 episodes.
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twitter, don't go crazy. you offer 20 billion and i'm out of here. always bull markets, i promise to find you. i'm jim cramer and i'll see you monday! >> it barely started. >> you know what these things do restored? >> what? >> $5,000, $6,000. >> oh, god. >> 25 years to find this. you're gonna have to pony up to get it. >> we are light-years apart. we're leaking oil like exxon valdez, dude. there goes trying to sell it. >> this is really [bleep] up. [bleep] it. like, seriously? >> i screwed up. shouldn't have done it. my name is jeff allen. i buy, fix, and flip cars. but i don't do it alone. i've got perry... meg... and eric. we are the car chasers.
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