tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC November 2, 2013 4:00am-5:01am EDT
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my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. my job is to educate you. so call me. as november begins we have to take heart in a unique statistic. in the last 50 years there's only been four other times when the s&p 500 was up more than 20%
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like it is this year. all four times the s&p not only preserved those gains but rallied right into the new year. i do not normally put that much stock in monthly historical data but if a pattern has been replicated 100% of the time i have to believe there's something to do it. that makes you want to. >> buy buy buy. >> when we have weakness even for part of the day. and then the nasdaq actually declining .06%. probably stuff to buy there. now, there are amazing companies reporting this weekend but those earnings will be dwarfed by two other events. the pricing of the twitter deal and friday's october non-form payroll report. let me tell you how you have to navigate these waters with those two. i like the company where i can
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be found at jim cramer wearing my dead mouse halloween outfit. so go there after the show, of course. it's going to be a great investment. unfortunately most of you will not be able to get in because it's too hot and only the biggest commission producing clients are likely to get any stock. let me give you thoughts on the pricing. right now you're hearing they might be valued at $15 billion because it can only turn out to be the son of facebook. the $121 billion social media giant with a stock up 87% for the year. here's the problem, ever since the disastrous facebook ipo i have been making it my mission to keep you from overpaying no matter what the deal is. that's because there is a price to be paid for any stock and at the moment facebook came public the $38 price was not where it should have been. it was way too high. that can happen again. i fear that twitter could be no
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different and that retail investors may overpay for it because they're familiar with the company and the ipo process is one where familiarity does breed contempt. first off, we talk about market capitalization being ways to view twitter. for example, netflix was valued at a fraction of the $20 billion it's worth now. i urged apple to buy it because i felt the opportunity worldwide. the only game plan of netflix was worth at least $20 billion. i thought it was worth 20 billion for apple to buy them. i feel the same about twitter. i believe this company is worth at least $20 billion to a microsoft or apple or yahoo! that need to step up their game in social and that pretty much defines my upper limit for what it's worth and i'm declining to pay above that. i'm not saying buy it at 28 or 27. because the company's
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underwriter goldman sax might increase the number of shares. i'm using the market share. if twitter is valued at less than that buy it and buy more on the way down. if it's valued at more than that, take a pass. even though i trust the banker and the new york stock exchange, i trust both of them more than i trusted the supporting cast for facebook. all right. how about this employment number? we got to have a game plan for that too, right? no one expected a barnburner of a number given the federal government's knuckle headed shutdown and brush with financial death. we don't expect a lot of jobs to be created. people think the only reason it goes up at all is they continue to keep rates low then we should be fine with a weak number, right? still, no. when we get that number people say holy cow this economy is so weak. they'll get really scared and you know what they do, sell,
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sell, sell. it will be boring and there will be more sellers. no, my solution is if you're at all nervous about friday, under both scenarios, you're going to get -- >> sell sell sell. >> unless the number comes not too strong, not too weak the number could take a hit. i need you to plan accordingly. after the close we'll hear from three cramer favs. you've heard all of these companies on our show. all three raise production numbers but oil plummeted here. if crue goes $5 lower -- i wouldn't be a buyer of any of them going in. tuesday we got names like tesla. i think tesla is a cold stock. and if he announces a deal in europe or china, this one sees a flash. i don't expect any weakness.
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there's a lot of chatter about competitive products about what they have in the pipe. i even suggested it. i think you stay on the sides. not need to get aggressive yet. we also hear from aol. aol when things settle down, people start buying. why both? i think 2014 is going to be a terrific year for tim armstrong and his company. meanwhile the drugstore business has been on fire. unfortunately cvs has been on fire too. i want to buy it lower. whole foods report on wednesday, i am worried about this one. not because i worry about the company. are you kidding me? the opposite. i worry about the analysts that are almost always way too critical of this company. for the last few times whole food has reported i told you to
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buy the weakness. and it's results were good. i was salivating. so it was to wait until the onslot and buy it on the way down. same thing is going to happen again. if it works, then we know we should be putting in the same kind of trade with the ceo we just heard from. they ront on wednesday. it's a terrific play on increased production. i want to buy it if they take off after their earnings on monday. we also get solarcity and i think that this one, like tesla, because elon musk is the chairman is a total colt and they go higher until they implode. i would buy solarcity. they get out a couple of months. if tesla pops, especially, because these two tend to trade
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together because they are both elon musk operations. do i think it's right that they trade together? i don't make the rules. what does it matter. the pattern with whole foods plays out the same with disney. here's a stock run up more than 10% from what some thought was a weak quarter. it wasn't. it wasn't weaker than the whole foods quarter. i urged you to buy disney all the way down just like i'm urging you that day if disney reacts. they reported great numbers stock goes down, bye bye bye. the declining gasoline prices alone could be enough to lift disney's numbers for the next couple of quarters. wait for the usual critics to express their disappointment and pounce friday as we might get overall market weakness curtesy of the unemployment number. heres the bottom line, get ready for the twitter deal. pay attention to market capitalization. and get ready to do buying of
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whole foods and disney after the critics cried disappointment. that strategy worked well before. i think it will work again as history in these two cases has repeatedly itself, well, repeated. let's go to jaime in florida. >> booyah, jim. how are you doing? >> i'm doing well. >> reporter: i'm doing wonderful. louisiana southern bell living in fort walton beach. i'm so interested in trmb. i was going to buy them the other day. it didn't go through at 27.95. >> no, it's too high jamie. i say that not just because i caught some off that pier growing up but you have to take a pass. that's how it worked. bill in connecticut. >> reporter: hello from connecticut. >> we have connecticut people in the set i always like them. >> reporter: thank you for taking my call. i want to take about the same
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stock. with the good quarter reporting but the new stock issuance. what do you think now? >> i know you need that for liquidi liquidity. but i can't touch that. that was a shame what happened. i know the family and it was just a shame. no, i cannot recommend it. i just can't do it. all right a little birdie told me next week the market will be a twitter about a certain name and i've got to tell you, and also keep an eye on the nonform payrolls and get ready for disney and whole foods when those negative analysts come out and say you should sell it, i'll be a buyer. coming up, sweet spec. the discoveries of domestic oil put our country in the middle of an energy renaissance that could transform the economy.
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tonight, cramer is drilling down to find you a brand new name that still looks like bargain. and later, friendly skies? delta has been soaring. up 120% this year alone. can it continue to gain altitude or should you buckle up for turbulence. that's all coming up on "mad money". >> don't miss a second of mad money. follow @jimcramer on twitter. send jim an e-mail at madmoney@cnbc.com or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc. miss something? head to mad money.cnbc.com.
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week. you know i believe the discovery of the shale oil is one of the biggest out there. oil is, after all, a global market. price set over there. london. but as much as we adore the story and all the familiar stocks that help us play it out, the fact is, they're not what you describe necessarily as that cheap anymore. i still think they're where the value is but they're not that cheap. that's why tonight, i want to introduce you to a tiny $560 million oil and gas exploration and production company or e and p with a -- are you ready? $12 and change stock. i'm talking about swift energy. swy. sam, frank, a speculative mri in texas which is one of the hottest finds around. it's swift energy itself is one
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of the most battered and beaten stocks you'll find. it was trading at $45 in 2011. last year 30. now at 12.95. and 5.6% in today's session alone. a victim of the weakness in the price of oil and the hideous -- even for speculation, the problem with swift is very simple. the company used to be a pure play on natural gas. two areas that have been hideous for years because the united states is simply glutted with natural gas. there's been way too much supply and not nearly enough demand. virtually every other exploration outfit that we talked about as moved away from natural gas. they realized natural gas was going nowhere. so they jumped ship on the ladder and decided to get oily. swift energy oil despite it's name was really late to the
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game. >> this brings me to why i think the stock is a smart speculation. i can sum it up in four words. better late than not. now makers in some of the strongest areas but management decided to sell off the other side of it. there's louisiana acreage holding them back and they're investing on the eagle ford acres that could turn it into a producer. the company is devoting 80% of its expenditure budget to the texan shale. they are going to use the money to fund their drilling operations in eagleford which is what we want to see. that's coming in the not too distant future. it's 50 miles wide and 40 miles
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long running all the way through texas to touch on new mexico and louisiana. if this were a country it was rank as one of the top 15 world producing nations in the world. let's hope it doesn't sussede. that number will sink. not only will swift become a pure play but it's assets are high quality. the strength is masked by the weakness in other areas. it's roughly 65,000 acres in la salle and mcmullin. they had 100% success rate. no dry holes. every time they drill they're hitting holes here and they are improving other metrics too. stronger than expected revenues that rose 18.8%. increasing 10%.
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within the swisz initial performance is up and the well cost declined by over 10%. how many businesses dropped and revenues rose. plus company has 340 million barrels of oil equivalent worth of net resource potential. some of that represents natural gas liquids and they're not so good. when you factor in all the debt on swifts industries. they have a $1.6 billion enterprise value. that's what it would cost to take over the company. you realize this stock is valued at $4.74 per barrel of oil in the ground. come on man, give me a break. it costs money to extract the resources but given that crude is at $59 barrel that seems like
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a huge disparity to me. now swift energy is an incredibly hated stock. they've been crushing it year after year. they consider betting against swift something shooting fish in barrel. which is why 23.7% of its shares have been sold short. however, there are some believers here, not the least of them being the ceo, terry shift who disclosed he bought 20,000 shares at $11.85 on august 5th. i wish you were buying more, though. it's still up a buck from where the ceo made his buy. there's never a bad moment to declare victory because swift knows his company better than they do. he knows it's going to transform into a pure play on the shale in a few months time which will
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transform swift energy from a low stock to a beloved one. i would bet with him. going from here, real change of address. swift energy is one of them. here's a speculative exploration production company that's going to change it's stripes in a big way and i would be a buyer before the transformation in eagleford becomes a reality. it's going to be a pure play and that happens in the first quarter of next year. after the break, i'll try to make you more money. >> announcer: coming up, friendly skies? delta's been soaring. now up over 120% this year alone. can it continue to gain altitude? or should you buckle up for turbulence? don't miss cramer's take.
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every year as the fourth quarter goes on, certain stocks are anointed by wall street as winners. and those winners have a tendency to keep winning through to the end. money managers who want to boost their performance figure if you can't beat them, then join them. so they start buying the best for formers out there for the
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year. then the more cynical managers do the same thing but because they want to show their investors how smart they were. they'll say this guy is a great guy. all for google stocks that already delivered tremendous performance. who is likely to be anointed this year? we're talking about the best performing stocks in one of 2013's hottest break out sectors. the name, delta airlines. and a lot more room to run. why delta? let's go back in the way back machine seven months to the beginning of march when i did something unprecedented on 2,000 shows of mad money. after decades of saying the airlines shouldn't be owned, i changed my mind. i did it because the facts had changed. in the old days the airlines are untouchable because the entire industry was objected to endless price wars that wrecked earnings. just ruined the competition. we hate competition as shareholders but in the last few
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years there's been a ton of consolidation. competition isn't a problem anymore. or at least planes that aren't expensive gas guzzlers. we now have just four major carriers. delta, united continental, u.s. airways and american. and back in march it looked like the last two might be allowed to emerge. i gave the whole group my endorsement saying u.s. airways was my favorite. but you could own any of them. since then the stocks have roared. southwest rallied 45%. u.s. airways is up 54% and delta, the leader of the pack has given you a 70% gain but there's been one big change in the story. in august we learned that the justin department might not allowed the u.s. airways amr deal to go through. that's right. that was a big, big change. apparently they picked up on the fact that these airline mergers
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are terrible for you the consumer even if they're fabulous for you the shareholder and for profits. they're still hope for u.s. airways. they agreed to submit to the trust of the mediator but unless you think you're an edge in legal side, hey, you ought to go back and read confessions, you'll see that that was a -- oh, here we go. confessions of a street addict. it's great in any language. you don't want to play the airlines with u.s. airways. nope, you want delta. you want delta airlines. that's dal. not only is it the best performer of the group but it also wins regardless of whether the justice department approves the u.s. airways deal or not. then delta remains top dog we nor mouse structure advantages that would allow the stock to keep outperforming the rest of the group.
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delta united continental when it comes to corporate travel with superior networks as well as more valuable frequent flyer programs. u.s. airways can't challenge that if they're not allowed to gobble up amr. but on the other hand, if the deal goes through, while that would be great news for u.s. airways it's still good news for delta. if justice lets u.s. airways merge with amr, that takes out one more major competitor. all of the major airlines will be able to raise ticket prices more than they have. raised fees for checked baggage. probably put the squeeze on customers in different ways they can't imagine yet although spirit has a lot of good ones. i'm sure they'll pay to be able to let you have your pc one during periods when you weren't supposed to. now delta is already the best operator in the group. it shot the lights out. revenues rising 5.7% year over
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year and boy, more is to be expected. delta's operating margins what they make on each dollar sales with interest in taxes is better than any other airline save the always, always well run alaska air. it was a real love fest. delta has more premium seats in first class and business than anyone else in the business. in the past, listen, i didn't know this. most of the seats were given away as free upgrades to coach passengers. last year only 14% of delta's domestic front cabin seats were occupied by paying customers. can you imagine the people you thought were rich? they upgraded, free. the company is more than doubled that to 30% and delta's initials going to 50% in the near future. they're selling more where you get nothing anyway. 11 months ago delta laid out a blueprint for $1 billion worth
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of annual cost savings and management is delivering on that blueprint plus delta is seeing strength in the corporate travel business which grew by 10% thanks to its joint venture with virgin atlantic and my favorite thing, they have their own oil refinery to save on the cost of jet fuel. it hasn't worked out that well yet but it could be a big deal in 2014. they don't have a clean balance sheet, it's an airline but it's a better balance sheet story. they ended 9.9 billion in debt but they beat their $10 billion target and that's down from 17 billion in 2009. there's not 7 billion over the next few years which would be terrific as it equals higher earnings. as delta's balance sheet keeps improving they're becoming more and more shareholder.
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earlier this year they have a stock buy back they plan to use over a three year period. it's well ahead of schedule. i also wouldn't be surprised if their rates are different which currently yields .9%. even though delta is executing much more, and that's for certain, most stocks are trading at 8.7 times next year's earnings estimates. if you went to the super market and they were selling steaks for the price of ground beef, which would you buy? while u.s. airways could be the big winner if the justice department lets them merge, delta airlines wins either way and it's already delivering stellar returns. dal is the one to own. donna in texas. >> caller: happy friday booyah too you. >> big football weekend. what's up? >> caller: i'm thinking we should have strawberry ice
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cream. >> okay. >> caller: everybody should eat strawberry ice cream. >> well, i like the assets. >> caller: well, that's good too but what about this student transportation stock? they have a crazy, to me, outrageous pe of 1287.8 however they also pay a dividend of 8.45. it leaves me confused. >> what you need to do, dennis came on the show, the ceo. he explained why it can be so huge. if you check that interview i think that you'll feel a little more comfortable although i am -- most yields are not that high which does raise eyebrows. peter in new york, please. peter. >> caller: jim, how are you doing? >> all right. >>. >> caller: what's the story in hertz? >> well, last quarter was bad. they cut the forecast. we hear them speak this week and have to tell you they're hurt i
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think by the government shutdown. i don't expect to hear good news again but i do believe long-term because of the consolidation of the industry hurts is a buy buy buy. richard in nevada. >> caller: big booyah to you. >> excellent. >> caller: i'm wondering why auto zone is $400 a share? >> because they buy up every share that moves. not literally but figurativley. >> it's the biggest most impressive buy back on the stock exchange. the airlines are flying high and things could look very first class for u.s. airways depending on the justice department but it really may not matter. it's delta, delta, deltas fly.
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it is time. it's time for the lightning ground. i tell you to buy buy buy, sell sell sell and then the lightning round is over. and then the lightning round is over. and then the lightning round is over. are you ready? time for the lightning round. i'm starting with james in texas. james. >> caller: cramer, my question is about apc? is it still cheap? >> we'll know on monday when they report. they have fabulous acreage. me, i would be a buyer if this comes in but remember oil is going down in price. >> brett in new jersey. >> caller: jim, how are you. >> what's up? >> caller: just started my
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career as a fifth grade teacher. i have the opportunity to start investing at a young age. i saw it go up until the recent earnings where it dropped about $5. what do you think do here? >> i have to tell you he has done a remarkable job but i was suspicious that ncr couldn't be turned around. he has turned it around. i have to delve into the last quarter. that could be a good opportunity. have to do more. john. >> big old buckeye booyah. >> i love your coach. >> dee what do you see? >> that's our favorite way to play the 3-d sector now. you have to play it because this group is steaming hot and i don't want you to bget burned. paul in massachusetts. >> caller: i'm calling about
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opco health. >> it's coming down. if it does go back to that level we'll get a piece of the action. not at all. let's go to jude in new jersey. >> caller: hey, jim, how are you? >> your staff is excellent. >> yes, they are, they're fantastic. >> caller: quick question, are you still negative on investing in coca-cola? >> i just like pepsico more. i think she prefers coca-cola more. i'm an all in buyer i like p pepsico. one more. bob in illinois. >> caller: jim, this is bob chicago. >> excellent. what? >> caller: groupon. >> i like them.
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people laughed at me because i knew when you brought in a real guy, because he's from another world -- but that company is doing well. have to tell you, i still think it's a buy. and that ladies and gentlemen is the conclusion of the lightning round. >> announcer: the lightning round is sponsored by t ttd td ameritrade. >> a lot of talk about bubbles lately. it's still too easy to call the market a bubble. sell, sell, sell because of the bubbles, easy. >> for those that want to burst the bubbleicous bubbles, let's deal with the reality of the situation rather than just bubbles. bubble talk is in the air. it just doesn't make sense. the bubble, it's been popped. bubbles. of course that's fact. double bubbles. thank you. i say take some stuff off the
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table and let the rest run. >> i forgot how tasty these really sugary gums are. they're so good. what is this? did someone drop a salad? >> no. >> oh, you're kidding. with halloween rapidly approaching it's time to talk candy. no. not that kind of candy. candies. they were like vampires. these stocks are not zombies.
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today chevron reported what has become a blah quarter for this company. it seems to me that something is always going arye for those companies. as ceo john watson told us and i quote, our third quarter earnings were down from a year ago primarily reflecting lower margins from refined products in the current period. so even though this oil giant earned $5 billion in the quarter, it's stock was hammer today closing down a $1.95. this is happening far too often. it's it's a disturbing trend. but the major integrators are too slow to grow. it's difficult for them.
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they're on treadmills. sh chevron produced 2.59 a day. so much more than what the market covers. given that the market produced 2.52 million barrels last year, that's more than most independents can do but from a very huge pace it moves very little. but in the meantime chevron bought back $1.25 billion in stock. even as they made a big deal of it, as do all the major oil companies. who cares about 1.25 billion in stock? in the end, chevron is like exxon and shell. slow growing companies with cash trying to replenish oil pumped while spending billions on future projects that may not move the needle because all they do is keep them from falling off
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of the treadmill. they have a long-term view though i'm not a fan of shell. but these companies are too big and other than their dividends they aren't stocks worth owning. do you know what they remind me of? some of the big pharmaceutical companies like pfizer, they don't give you much more than a fixed income equivalent. in contrast, fabulous growth companies like eog, noble and pioneer remind me of biogen. always finding and producing new products. it's why i in the market favor these stocks more than shell, exxon and chevron. best of all, the independents as they are known, you're not going to be able to buy the big dogs. this week i sat down with dan about the possibility of all things of pioneer natural
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resources actually getting a bid and he took it seriously saying that one of them is willing to pay upwards of $40 billion for this company. that's staggering. but it's also a testament to how badly they need growth. it's always possible that the big dogs will split up and break themselves into pieces because i believe the parts are worth more than the whole. it's a lot better to own the juniors than the majors. what a shame if there isn't something in between. good growth and a good dividend. that would be the oil to buy. sorry, i don't see one out there that fits that bill. so fit with eog, and my charitable trust favorite and pioneer. that turbo charged trio is where the real value lies. stay with cramer. >> this veteran's day, "mad money" honors those that defend our country freedoms. if you or someone in your family
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massachusetts wanted my diagnosis on a tiny stock ontx. and since these have been all over the place lately i said i needed to do more work. it develops small molecule anticancer therapies. while they had data looks compelling in a group of blood cancers, i am worried that they'll be competing so i think we have to wait until the phase ii study comes out. that's in five weeks. and then if the data is good, we'll circle back, okay? back on october 9th, he asked me about ams. it's focused on doctors, nurses and other health care professionals. while most staffing companies struggle recently they posted a solid quarter. very choppy health care market
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too. the stock roared with a lot of people betting against it. 11% higher today. looks like it is cured and as demand for health care improves with the implementation of the affordable care act next year, the stock will benefit as an outsourcing play although it's controversial. guthrie, thank you for bringing this one to my attention. >> all right. the same night sandy in connecticut called about fly leasing with it's super fly ticketer fly. here's a company that rents to airline customers but it doesn't live up to the movie let alone the sound track. it reports less than a week from now and i'm concerned the results may not be so hot as the current fleet of contracts disappointed investors before. this is a speculative way to play the airline industry. i like delta more but you need to see their results and get
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some clarity on whether the have the cash flow to sustain the dividend. last but not least, jordan asked for a early trick or treat on tabloid software. very hot for you home gamers. this was a recent ipo. i had to do more research on it. it operates in the business intelligence base providing cloud-based softwares so it's customers. 17 cents earnings beat and the stock then if response popped 9% but drifted lower on post-ipos. while i see it going higher over the long-term, as the company delivers accelerating growth over the near term, it's doing serious damage as it will nearly double. a lot of stock. i say take advantage of the secondary to pick -- to pick up some software. i think it's a good company.
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now to the tweets. all right. now, we got to get these tweets because you have been sending me at jim cramer and we have ignored them. first one is about my costume and it caused quite a stir. my outfit is scaring the little ones. perhaps you're familiar with that character, dead mouse. we even heard from cnbc's own, she says love the @deadmouse costume. you are the coolest. let's go to a tweet. i work at kroger and i was wondering what you think of the stock? it's the best of the traditional super market stocks by far and i like it. let's go to another tweet. he tweets two years ago took 10% of my portfolio to trade short-term. now the 10% portion worth more than the main portfolio.
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much is thanks to you. what can i say? this tweet made me feel terrific. a lot of people say nice things and i try to answer or respond to the nice ones. i mix it up a little bit with the not to nice either. there's my music. not only that but next year i'm going to a beegie. stick with cramer. >> mad about mad money? immerse yourself into cramer's world. while you watch the show with zeebox. on your phone, tablet or on the web get sneak peeks, go behind the scenes and join the conversation. download the free app today for the ultimate adventure. >> all next week our eyes on twitter as the social media giant goes public.
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twitter, don't go crazy. up to $20 billion and i'm out of here. i'm jim cramer and i'll see you monday. >> i have an unpaid zombie debt, and i'm getting my wages garnished every week 25%. >> also... there's something about my "1 on one" that seems familiar. look at you. >> girlfriend! >> girlfriend! and you ask me, "can i afford it for halloween?" >> i want to buy universal studios' "halloween horror nights" tickets. i have no debt. >> yeah, that's good. you shouldn't have debt. [ scary music plays ]
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