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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  November 8, 2013 5:00pm-5:31pm EST

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you have announced a separation, how involved is he in the company today. >> he is super supportive. we're great friends. and he's super supportive of everything we're doing. >> such an interesting story, for more, watch this weekend on the money, check your local listings for time and channel, that's on the money this weekend and it repeats on cnbc sunday night 7:30 p.m. have a great weekend, everybody. that does it for closing bell tonight, fast money begins right now. ♪ ♪ i want to know what the koala says. i'm sitting in for melissa lee. hi everybody our traders tonight are steve grasso, brian kelly, guy adami. great to have you with us. let's get straight to the top
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story tonight. is the economy stronger than we thought? well, stocks surged on a surprisingly good job support, with the dow closing at yet another new record high. so, guys, is this the green light for economic growth? or should you be fading the optimism? what do you think, guy adami? is good news good news? >> clearly. josh i'm sure has strong feelings about the job numbers. i think these numbers will be a little lumpy the next couple months. we'll see, i don't think the economy is getting that much better. i think there's been a lot of cross currents in the data. clearly the market wants to go higher, i thought we would test the 1740 level in the s & p, i didn't think we would rally, maybe we would bounce but not see the rally. next week is an important week. next week could be as important week technically as we've seen in a while. i think next week will tell the tale for the next 100 s & p points. >> these job figures were bigger. everybody was overlaying it saying was taper going to happen is it not? everyone is resigned to the fact
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taper will eventually happen but they don't care right now. >> do you agree, josh? >> you know, it's really dangerous to take one jobs report and extrapolate it. first of all, they will revise this thing seven times over the next five years. second of all, even though it's better than expected, it's still not a great number. that being said, i think the most important thing that happened today, and a little bit yesterday was the relative strength in the financials. that's been a group that really has sat out the last leg of this rally. banks made a high in july. did not make a new high in september. i think you really need strength there in order for this rally to have a new leg higher, if you're not getting leadership from the banks, it's going to be tough. so the good news is, the xlf is your tell. that's what i think all eyes are on going into next week. >> and you just might get that strength, because you saw the bond market sell off very hard today. the stock market rallied, which was very good. and if you get a steep yield curve, that's going to help out the banking stocks.
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they have underperformed. the other thing besides the jobs number, we've had other good economic news, we had gdp, better than expected, a lot of it on an inventory build. as long as they sell the inventory that's fine. ism, something i follow, isms were much better on the services and manufacturing and globally. so the economy, i think, in terms of where the market is going, the trade is higher here. people are trying toified it. >> do you think it brings forward the taper, do you think the market doesn't care, because they know it is going to happen just a matter of when not if. >> exactly. as long as the economy is strong, then a taper is okay. if they are going to taper for other reasons, then you have a problem with the stock market. i will get bearish. >> what time regular we looking at here? >> i'm not in this taper camp. i think they will have their foot on the gas for the foreseeable future. that's somewhat traum at toik me what's going on in japan. there's this global race to zero in currency, i think rates stay low for longer than people
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think. i think the move in the bond market you have to fade. i think ten year yields are headed back down. >> the ecb action nobody expected. that rallies the dollar, sells off crude, where evan thought crude would turn around, they have a great spot to bounce. but the problem is if the dollar continues to strengthen that's a problem for crude. >> we are actually getting breaking news here, guys. bernanke saying the unemployment rate probably understates the slack in the jobs market. >> more dovishness. there is no reason to think that there is any kind of action imminent. in the absence of that concern, it would actually make a lot of sense for us to continue on this trajectory. >> how much does the handover to yellen play into this. >> it's her fed. we learned that when they walked back from the taper, she had gotten, you know, the tap on the
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shoulder. what would be the point in starting a taper, and then having her just go back and undo it. she is clearly not concerned about prices, inflation at all. so i don't see why we're talking tapener november. >> but you may get the taper. here's what to look for, what bernanke is talking about is unemployment rate. they may move the threshold to 6%. there were two fed papers this week, senior economists talking about moving the taper threshold level, which is easing. if we get a tapener december, which would be very, very early, they are going to do it most likely, move that level down, and it is easy money again. it's a different style of easy money, but i think the market would take it very positively. >> easy money by another name. time to hit today's top trades. first up, the gap, rallying after reporting better than expected third quarter sales growth. the retailer raising its full year guidance, josh what do you make of this? >> it's not really a great atmosphere for retailers. this is great news to see. this is a company of its own volition is doing all the right
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things, comstore sales were better than expectations, and they raise forward guidance. so this stock is an-- i don't think i'd be chasing the 9% rally in the stock. >> next up, thousand dollar club member, priceline is high today after beating on both the top and bottom lines for the third quarter, the company says it's splitting it's chairman and ceo positions effective january 1st. >> we've talked about this stock for a long time. it's just a gold standard in that space. it's $1,000 stock, as you led with. everybody thinks it's $1,000, must be expensive. it's really not expensive, josh talked about this. if you move the decimal point one thing over to the left, all of a sudden you have $100 stock and valuation doesn't look at rich as people think it is now. so their gross bookings surprise people. their guidance was good. giving the growth they are
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seeing this is not expensive stock. >> sometimes $1,000 price tag for some companies have been the kiss of death. finally, a momentum turn around, tesla, the ultimate momentum stock down again today following the third reported fire in six weeks. that stock dropped 15% in the past week. worst week in two years. the question is whether or not it can get back on track. >> i've been holding 1/3 of my position, i sold 2/3 up in the 170s, i was holding on to it. i expected a better number. they didn't. the stock fell out of bed. i was using 140 as support. it broke it yesterday. closed below it. that to me, that break is what made me sell it. i'm out of the name completely. probably next stop is 125, after that, 104. >> dry ships. those shares have surged 90%. business helped along by strong commodity demand out of china. the pop indicates up tick in the industry, which is often seen as a global economic bellwether.
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will smooth sailing continue? that's the question. melissa lee joins us from the new york stock exchange where she will host a special edition of options action with the chairman and ceo of dry ships and ocean rig. melissa, over to you. sorry to sit in your chair. >> thanks, manned each. you're doing great. pleasure to have you with us on fast, george. i want to ask you, because your stock has seen a run since around late august. that really coincides with what we've seen in shipping rates as measured by the baltic dry index. so tightly correlated yet the index has come up 25% since its highs, what can you tell us about shipping rates and whether your stock will be at the mercy of these rates? >> well, i think the stock is being used as the bellwether for the shipping markets. and the shipping markets have remained undervalued for a long time. and so have the rates. the rates have started to rise, i believe a rise is going to continue long term through '14 and '15.
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>> so even though we've seen a decline of 26% in the baltic dry index since the october highs, you still think that shipping rates haven't seen their peaks yet? >> definitely not. if you have a long term horizon, one or two years, it's still very undervalued. both the rates and the stock. but also, the stock also gets value from the major share holding, 6%, another leasing company. >> which you own about 60% of. >> that's correct. >> in terms of where you are seeing demand right now, a lot of analysts are saying, that it is brazilian, it is australian, iron ore capacity that will come online driving it. what happens if we see pullback in china, will the output we'll see from australia and brazil offset any sort of slowdown? what are you seeing? >> i don't think there's going to be any slow down in china, because even despite the fact the gdp has gone down a bit, the infrastructure projects continue at the same pace as in the past. that's number one. number two, and most
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importantly, if the chinese are importing even at a price that is high now, $130 per ton, and the inputs compete with the production, which has very low fire sale capacity f. they see a drop in import they lower the price so the commodity will be shipped. producers know that, they have prepared and expanded increased demand from china. >> your stock had a monster run up 89% year to date. you are looked at as a proxy for the bulk shipping industry. but a lot of analysts are saying, you know what, they are not a pure play. if you want a pure play, invest in another company, because of your exposure to ocean rig. what would you say to that? >> it's true. but on the other hand, ocean rig is very undervalued. so you will have -- you will get the increased rise in the dry bulk rates and the index, and also the stock, which is we
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believe very undervalued. >> george, a pleasure to speak with you. thanks for your time. >> pleasure being here. >> mandy, back to. >> you mel is a, thank you. i want to get your call on what you think of the stock, which is already up 90% this year? >> but it's off the high. it looks -- nice support area here, rates are going higher, which george says they've are, and you also have seen a lot of reduction in capacity, not a bad place to be. understand, it is being used as a approximate each, there's another way to play this, which is balt, george mentioned this as well. they actually go right for the spot rate of the baltic dry index. so that's probably a purer way to play it, if you don't want the deep water well exposure. >> it's been tracking the baltic trading, the bdi as well. look at that. we'll leave it there. day two of trading is complete for twitter. and it's pulling back from yesterday's big pop, coming down to earth. so now what? one of our traders bought it today, and one sold it. so what should you do?
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that's coming up next. and with the twitter ipo behind us, looking for the next big thing. we've got the down low on ali baba and how to trade it. that and much much more coming ahead on fast.
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just because we thought you didn't have enough of twitter, we've got more twitter pulling back today after its huge pop of 73% on yesterday's ipo. josh, at what level do you think this is worth it as an investment? >> so it's a -- i'll be quick. i bought it yesterday. looking to see how much juice it would have left. really didn't have much. obviously today it started to sell off. i took about half my position off. i'm going to keep a core long there. i would love to see this thing get killed like facebook. i'd love to have a crack at this, with a three handle, i got to tell you, if the nasdaq momentum names don't hold up, i think that's exactly what's going to happen. so i love it long term. but i want to be opportunistic as i build a position. >> nice to get in at a lower level. what about you, guy? >> i think it's going lower as well. this is not a fundamental -- it's a supply demand store each. only so many shares out there,
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people chasing them, this is going to sound like i'm not -- i don't mean to be rude. this is a greater fools theory thing. you're buying it here hoping somebody buy its from you higher, you aren't buying on fundamentals, i think it pushes back to the low 30s. >> everyone is waiting for the same thing that happened with facebook to happen with twitter. i don't think that will happen. goldman sachs will make sure this succeeds. so the price it should have come out was 27, the ipo price, traded at 45 to open. so i believe josh will get his shot in the mid30s to buy it. i bought a 20% position today. quite frankly i don't know whether it's going to 65 or 31st. i want to be involved. >> we're in the same boat. >> you make a good point about goldman sachs, this ipo was managed. >> 25 days before we hear a word from the company. and that's really important, and in the absence of anything official, you will have volatility. the underwriters at goldman and morgan won't weigh in until close to first week of december based on the jobs act. i wouldn't look for anything next week. >> the twitter ipo is over.
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investors are now looking towards the next big offering, it is likely to come from chinese ecommerce company ali baba valued between 60 and $100 billion. it would be, folks, the largest ipo since facebook last year. so how do we trade it, guys? >> well, first of all, i traded it pretty simplistically, i bought yahoo. and i have been in and out of yahoo. i'm back in it now. i believe that twitter took the headlines. once alibaba takes over the headlines you'll see people try to figure out the easiest way to play this. for that stake that yahoo owns, i believe that's going to be the easiest way. you could see this make a run at $40. >> just broadly speaking, people should start to pay attention to the chinese internet, the large companies, that trade over here, once again, it's been a while. but these are the names that will catch fire as the street gets excited about alibaba. there are two ways to discover these stocks or buy them in bachkts. number one, cqqq, this is the
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chinese internet etf. then a brand new vehicle that just launched in the last week, k-web. this is the first chinese internet only etf. this has names in it like ten cent. and these names are very underfollowed, they haven't been hot for a while. this is the way you start to leg back in and learn them. >> check out k-web and qqq. time for pops and drops. big movers. we have a big drop, ambercrombie and fitch dropping. >> fashion trends have been a problem going into christmas and the holiday season. and abercrombie has tremendous difficulty. i would not be buying this. i wouldn't pick bottoms. let's see how the next couple months works out let's see if the stock finds support before you go in and be a hero. >> another drop in the form of whole foods dropping 7%. >> this was the first time in a long time, almost several years that whole foods actually downgraded the next quarter. they have always raised it. so i think you probably have
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sideways action here in whole foods. probably stay away from it for a month and see what it does. >> okay. we have michael kors, this is a pop, popping 6%. >> double dose of good news, being added to the s & p 500. probably some time next week. obviously, the quarter they reported, first quarter was outstanding. i think the stock is getting into nosebleed territory. we liked it for a while. at these levels i think you have to get out of longs or get out of them entirely. i wouldn't short it. i think it trades back down to low 70 sglz drop in the form of zillow dropping 4%. josh. >> i would stay away from this. there was serious support at 80. it broke through that today. the ceo said something the street didn't like. quote, unquote,, "we're in heavy investment mode," that's code for we'll spend a lot and not earn much. you saw the reaction, totally avoid this for now. >> social scrap books and big birthdays. here's the fast money week in review. >> what do you got? >> we got a pop for birthdays.
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>> love the do. >> happy birthday to melissa. we won't tell you the number. >> thank you. thank you. >> rock n roll girl. happy birthday. >> thanks. very sweet. >> you have a scoop there. >> just pointing it out. that's what we do here on fast money. >> is that what you call it? >> surrounding the trade. >> put my shirt back on tv, that looks good. >> merry christmas. >> one of our panelists here actually just started a page. with your one follower. >> journey of the 1,000 miles starts with a single step. you should know that. do we have picasso's kids picture? i feel sorry for them. they must have gotten teased miserably. look at those two. that's brutal. it's horrible. not invited to parties.
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>> see you back here tomorrow at 5:00 for more fast. mad money starts now. >> guy adami, do you have a cupboard full of lime green shirts? what's going on? >> i did it, i knew steve -- green looks good. i wore it with my halloween tie. >> i approve. >> he's a fly guy, josh brown. >> quote, unquote, green looks good. u.s. steel is on a tear, up more than 50% over the past three months. but two of our traders say now is the time to get out. we're going to be trading steel space next. another day, another record for stocks. but how do you play monday? well, we have your final trades of the week, after this break. don't go away. >> fast money means trading. everybody has to bring their best information each and every night. the entire trading day is the preparation for the show that night. >> it's idea generation, it's all about giving you a framework for how to look at the market. as the world has changed, our show has evolved. i am guy adami. i am fast money.
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>> i am pete najarian, i am fast money. >> are you fast money? go to the nbc universal store, and order your fast money tee. run with the big dogs. customer erin swenson ordered shoes from us online but they didn't fit. customer's not happy, i'm not happy. sales go down, i'm not happy. merch comes back, i'm not happy.
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and we wanted to show all of you at home, and if you're listening on the radio, a special guest in the building for you, it is josh brown's dad. hello, mr. brown. great to have you in the studio. he looks so normal, josh. >> isn't that amaze something. >> it's amazing. nice to have you here. switching gears, in case you missed some of today's top moments on cnbc, here's a rapid-fire recap in tonight's executive edge. ♪ >> it's a revolution going on in energy. you have as much energy in the ground has been unexploited as we've taken out of the ground for the last 100 years, it's all in america. that makes it so we can't be subject any longer to extortion by unfriendly countries. can't do a 1970s embargo any more. >> it's hard to say looking at the fundamentals of the
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business, that our change in management should be a sell signal. i think the fact that i'm staying around as chairman to work with darren to make sure we get a smooth transition for shareholders and for the company should be reassuring as well. >> the demand for organic continues to grow double digit rates, the supply chain has also grown, rules of the road are clear with the law. for us, actually, we have to double what we buy in the next five years. >> the jobs report for october, which came in better than expected with 204,000 nonfarm jobs added. that was well over the estimate. >> economy continues to be resilient notwithstanding self inflicted wounds from congress. >> after getting off to a rocky start this year, steel companies like u.s. steel and ak steel have been on a tear in the past few months. but two of our traders say that now is the time to sell. it's our trade of the day. guy and grasso, why sell now? >> i just think now euphoria is back in the name. you have to buy these at the trough. you have to sell when everybody
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is positive. that's what's going on. >> we'll go straight to the final trade. you can start off going around the horn. >> yahoo. bif. >> okay. bk. >> i like dxj, time to get back in. >> guy. >> kar. >> josh? >> i like ecl, it goes much higher. >> that does it for us, you can catch more fast money on monday 5:00 p.m. eastern and options action with melissa lee live from the new york stock exchange begins right after this break. have a great weekend, everybody. [ male announcer ] at optionsxpress, our clients really appreciate our powerful, easy-to-use platform. no, thank you.
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this is options action, tonight, car trouble. >> honestly, we're out of gas. >> no, not that kind of car trouble. tesla shares have hit the skids. there's a secret buy sign investors should plug into. we'll reveal what it is. plus, talk about overstuffed. shares of casual dining stocks have been on a tear. but are they about to get grilled? we'll tell you why traders are concerned. and we'll tell you why good news for jobs could be a warning sign for housing. the action from the nyse begins right now.

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