exaggerated, what amazon.com is doing and what somebody left in the bathroom of a boeing jet that will have you thinking, what a flake. mandy and her income aflok are here but start with steve liesman and the fed minutes which are due out. >> the federal reserve and its october meeting the committee generally expected data would justify tapering in coming months or in other words they used later the next few meetings. considered scenarios to taper before the economy showed clear or what they called unambiguous improvement and discussed qe issues and ways to improve guidance what amounts to one of the most confusing and inconclusive debates from a fed meeting. a number of participants supported equal size reductions in treasure rises and mortgage backed securities. they discussed lowering the

unemployment threshold. the one at 6.5%. pretty much dismiss that. debated providing additional assurances on low funds rate. didn't come to conclusions on that. discussed lowering the rate on excess reserves. they thought the benefits were small and so took no decision on that. they discussed a, quote, standing purchase of short-term treasuries, kind of forever revolving qe fund. didn't take a conclusion on that but talked about it. they held a special meeting on october 16th by video conference the day before the supposed default to discuss contingencies around a default and discussed smoothing market disruptions in the event of a u.s. default. saw the shutdown affects temporary and limited. give you an idea of some of the things they talked about for how they might taper. a mechanical rule, tapering without complete evidence of a turnaround, limiting the size of the qe program or calendar date for winding it down. at the end they took no

substantive agsion on any of these proposals. decided it was useful to talk about it, but didn't do so. i will point out from the market's perspective trying to gain, they used the same language that they used back in may and june, which caused the market to believe that they would taper in september. in coming months or next few meetings. i suppose that puts us -- >> frearly next year if you tak that same language to mean in the future. >> and we always watch a little bit of digestion in the markets at this stage the dow up by 16 points going into the minutes, now up by 3 points. lost a little steam. we're going to wait and see how the market interprets this. sometimes takes ten minutes or so to shake out. >> if steve liesman says he's concerned what does that mean for us. you know the ins and outs more than anybody else and if you're having trouble reading what the fed is going for how the -- is

anybody supposed to understand. my point is serious, is the fed losing control of its own communication game? transparency is one thing, gobbledy gook is another. >> transparency leads to complexity where they are right now. what they are gaming out is future conditional actions for a future conditional situation so when we get to this thing we might say that, do that. >> if then but for x equals 8, yellow equals ham. >> the bottom line we're no clearer than we were yesterday. >> i think we're more confused and i think we see a federal reserve that is struggling to get out of this box it's in. i think it wants to reduce the amount of quantitative easing out in the economy. it doesn't know how to do that in a way that won't cause a major market disruption. it is talking about it. it's talking about it intensely. using a lot of different ideas and many of those ideas would end up being more complicated communications than they have

right now. >> okay. >> i don't recommend these minutes to you to read. i don't recommend them. >> that's why we have you to do the hard work. >> let's bring in bob and russ from blackrock, see if they can figure out. you were waiting to get on. haven't parsed them through and we're just starting to. bob, the question we sort of talked about without getting into the market reaction, because there's no much, do you believe the federal reserve, a, knows what it's doing, and, b, is in control? >> oh, i believe they know what they're doing. they're in control. they're just at a juncture that is moving from where they were to where they're going and struggling a little bit to get there. look, like you and me, it's not black and white, it's gray. they're struggling with what do we do, when do we do and how do we do it. that's the danger of this full transparency, as steve hinted at. transparency is great when you're trying to be very clear about something when you're in transition and don't know quite how to do it it does leave the

reader very confused. >> so many different and conflicting voices at the fed. the fed this morning saying that a december taper is on the table and yet today we hear from the minutes that the outcome is in coming months. when do you think a taper will come. >> my simple -- >> i suppose. >> russ? >> sorry. >> i suppose it's possible we could get a december taper but i would agree with the market's forecast, it's unlikely. i think to get a december taper you need to see a couple things, a very strong print on november nonfarm payroll, at least a couple hundred thousand, some clarity about the budget negotiations. we know that's something that stayed defense hand back in september. if we go into the next fed meeting, still a lack of clarity about whether or not washington can agree on a budget deal it's more likely the fed will wait until early 2014. >> let me tell you what is clear, what's clear to me is the fe's goal here. i think ben bernanke would do a double flip and a somersault and

cartwheel if it meant he could reduce the amount of quantitative easing in the economy and not cause the market to bring forward its expectation of the first rate hike. that is what this entire discussion is about. when you talk about the complexity here, they would -- they're thinking of and trying anything to make that happen and so far, they're not able to really come up with a formula they agree on to make that happen. the goal is clear. the root for making that happen is unclear. >> bob, trying to jump in or russ? >> one thing there, i'm sorry, bob, go ahead. >> i'll piggyback on what steve said. that's exactly right. think about how they did this. they lowered rates, finally got to zero and did the qe on top of it. it's logical to think the opposite direction. we eventually end up with no purchases of securities and rates at whatever normal is. so how can this not be the first step heading in that direction, granted there is a big difference between reducing

bonds purchases and raising interest rates but it's all part of a pattern. >> i love what you said there, bob. steve's point and russ, i mean we need to hammer home to our audience to your clients, to everybody, there is a giant difference between tapering and tightening. tell us what the difference is with regards to the outcome of investing? >> from my point of view -- >> i think there's a couple -- >> go ahead, russ. >> i think there is a difference. this what is tripped the fed up back in the spring. it's going to make a difference if investors do believe that tapering does not lead to an imminent hike in the fed funds rate. i think the fed has actually done a better job over the summer of helping to distinguish that for investors but clearly there's going to be more work to do. the other thing i would say in fairness to the fed this is not only complicated by the fact that this is unprecedented, the fed has never had a balance sheet this size and how you unwind that, this is new territory. another dimension as well which

both irns and the fed is trying to wrestle through. how much of the problem in the labor market is cyclical, in other words a result of the recession, how much is structural? you look at the participation rate, what it tells you, is that some of the problems that have been bedevilling the labor market predate the recession. this is one of the things the fed is trying to work out right now. >> okay. guys, thank you very much for weighing in on those minutes. i would like to add another voice to the conversation, bob pisani. bob, i've been watching the tick by tick reaction and, of course, it does take a little while, right, to digest what is going on. steve rightly said, the minutes were rather confusing. my quick initial read on it is that we're at session lows for the stock market, it's losing steam. the dollar has ticked up and the ten-year has ticked up. what's the feel on the floor? >> modestly to the downside but that's a narrow range, only down about 20 points from the initial announcement. there's a full-court press on by the federal reserve to convince the world that tapering is not tightening. the guests and steve have it

right. look at the conversation from the minutes. fomc, discusses lowering 6.5% unemployment threshold. yellen talking about that yesterday in her letter. fomc debates providing additional assurances on low funds rate. fed funds rate. the point is they're really trying to convince the world there is a difference and judging by the reaction of the market fairly modest moves at least in the stock market they're winning. yellen will make this the centerpiece of what she'll be talking about the next several months. >> thank you so much, bob pisani. >> all right. so to mandy's point down a little bit here. the dow off about 20 points. we're all thoroughly perhaps confused by the federal reserve minutes. steve, you can dive in and see anything that pops up in your head run back, scream -- >> if they're starting to become clearer. >> we have a siren on our executive producer's desk -- >> no further than ten feet away from our desk. >> there you go. >> up next the ceo of toyota north america will join us live from the l.a. auto show. plus, pumped up californians. we'll tell you what just

happened there that hardly ever happens, mandy. >> later on, to all you whining about a coming wine crisis, put a cork in it. why everything is just fine. with wine. ahead.

let's talk cars. more fun than the fed. one of the big themes hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and toyota getting in on the fray, an suv

will be built in indiana which we love. phil lebeau with the ceo of toyota north america. >> thank you, brian. joined by jim lens. as brian said a big day out here not only for you but for all the automakers. he touched on the question of fuel cell vehicles and the development there. how close are we to seeing more of a reality across america? >> i think you're going to see it a reality in 2015, some manufacturers in 2014. our first fuel cell available to the public in '15. >> the question the fin fa structure. john -- infrastructure. jonathan browning from volkswagen said there's a socket everywhere but not a hydrogen fuel pump everywhere. let's not get ahead of ourselves when it comes to fuel cells. >> the difference is in the case of a fuel cell our fuel cell as an example can refuel in three to four minutes as opposed to hours for a plug-in. in the range on our cell somewhere around 300 miles. so there's a big difference in the need for multiple

infrastructure stations relative to electric. >> one of the stories getting a lot of attention out here and you're familiar with it is what's happening between tesla and the national highway traffic safety administration. not going to ask you to comment on it tesla's situation but you are in this position with nhtsa just a few years ago. when you're in that spot, and you're under the gun and in the spotlights, what is the pressure like to not only come up with a fix, but to say we know that this is where the problem is, here's the fix? >> i think the most important thing is, number one, you're listening to your customers, you're understanding what going on in the marketplace to understand what the problem might be. number one is listening. number two, be transparent with your customers and regulators and number three and probably most important, you've got to be quick about it. >> is that the pressure? >> that's the pressure. because you're trying to understand what the situation is, you know, engineers sometimes take a long time understanding root causes so you have to be very fast in your response. >> one last question, how much

are prius sales under pressure because of the low gas prices and does that change in 2014? >> i think it's still going to be under pressure. with the boom in shale oil, i think we're going to see lower fuel prices for some time to come in this decade. prius will be up a little bit from last year and overall hybrid volume for the industry is up about .4%. almost 4% of the market. still growing but low prices are definitely a headwind. >> jim, the ceo of the north american region for toyota, i got it right this time. >> very good. thank you. >> back to you. >> thanks very much for that, phil. let's take a quick check at the dow jones industrial average because as you heard at the top of the hour, steve liesman saying the federal reserve minutes were confusing, saying tapering could come and we all know it will, so that's why i don't understand the markets. tapering is going to come. whether it's december, march, april, who knows. >> that is no different than what we knew before the minutes. >> exactly. tapering is coming so whether you start to adjust now or later

i don't understand this fixation on it. thus the taper jar, which i think only has about $32 in it. we need more money in the taper jar. like 8 bucks right there. >> "street signs" holiday party here. ins just a week from today, millions of americans are going to be hitting the roads, don't we know it, for the busiest travel day of the year. aaa says an estimated 43.4 million people will travel 50 miles or more over the thanksgiving holiday, down 1.5% from last year. and here's the really good news. aaa says that most drivers will see the cheapest gas prices since thanksgiving of 2010. >> on that note, something just happened in california that hardly ever happens. we'll tell you what it is. we found the cheapest gas in the nation. let's get to sharon epperson with today's pump patrol. sharon? >> oklahoma has the lowest gasoline, $2.65 a gallon and this doesn't happen very often but it did today.

c california gasoline prices lower than new york, around $3.56 a gallon. and that's because of the supply situation in california, which is in better shape as refineries have come back to their normal operations. on the east coast, we're still undergoing some repairs and that's impacting supplies as well as prices. that's today's pump patrol. back to you. >> thank you so much, sharon epperson. she set it up fantastically for andy to weigh in. andy, you were the one that pointed out that california actually has cheaper gas that here in new york right now. this is rare, isn't it? what's up? >> well, it is very rare and as sharon mentioned we've got the refineries who are all operating in california adding to supply. we've seen inventories start to increase while on the east coast, we've had a number of refing problems that have impaktds supply and caused higher prices. >> is it going to continue? keep going lower in california? >> i think california is in for a period of lower gasoline prices. that's the good news. as we go through december and

january, inventories tend to build quite a bit and gasoline prices will continue to fall. >> by how much, andy? give us a little good news heading into the holidays. i have a feeling we have big bills coming up here. >> we've got different markets but nationally i'm xpgts expecting over the next couple days gasoline prices to rise 2 to 3 cents a gallon before they decline by christmas. in california, where it's $3.56 today, i'm expecting another 5 to 10 cent a gallon decline out there over the next few weeks. >> won't impact the solar powered go-cart frequently seen driving through beverly hills streets. thank you very much. >> you're welcome. still ahead why the first look at the home sales headline the one that came out today, may have told the completely wrong story, mandy. >> and then what the heck is blackberry thinking? details on the new $2,000 smartphone when we come back. ya know, with new fedex one rate

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when you open an account. you would think things couldn't get worse when it comes to the obama care website.

they better call in damage control squad because a video being release of hhs secretary kathleen sebelius is unfortunately going to be pretty ripe for jimmy fallon and other comedians. bertha coombs has it. >> brian, you know, kathleen sebelius was touring a site in miami where navigators were helping people successfully enroll. that was part of the idea, to get out that message that people are successfully enrolling, but these appearances don't always work out as planned. >> it's been a long time coming. >> yeah. >> sorry, our system is temporarily down. >> it went down. >> that's okay. it will come back. >> that happens every day. >> pretties poised. she smiled through it. there's someone trying to enroll someone on the site and it is down even as she's there. i love how the navigator tries to give her the little pep talk, saying it happens all the time, it's okay. they've set november 30th to be the date when this is supposed to be working smoothly for what they say ares vast majority of

users. back to you. >> extraordinarily awkward. thank you very much, bertha coombs. let's take a look at what existing home sales did, they fell last month to the lowest levels since june. i want to get to diana olick to run us through the numbers, which aren't quite as bad as they seem at face value. >> look, we knew sales were slowing, but this is actually a bit worse than xptds. existing home sales down 3.2% as supplies for homes for sales are not improving. still low levels. it's taking a little longer to sell a home. 54 days up from 50 in september and the low of just 37 in june. the weakest region in october was the west where prices have surged and inventories are way down, down over 26% in san francisco alone. sales down 7% month to month and down nearly 2% year over year. that's the only region with an annual decline by the way. what's the problem? affordabili affordability. the median home price in october up over 12% annually. this as personal income has

grown less than 3%. mortgage rates we know are see-sawing but above where they were a year ago. you can see all of this affect in the declining affordability in that very low share of first-time home buyers in the market. just 28%. that should be around 40%. realtors say that buyer is, quote, still not in the market, cash is king, at a full one third of all home sales. now realtors say the affordability problem is only worsening, rising prices are usually driven by surging demand, but today they're driven by really low supply, not so much demand. housing starts are still far too low to help normalize this market. but i know, brian's got a silver lightning on this -- lining on this because you always do. >> a couple years i was negative about everything, mr. dark cloud, now mr. silver lining. the point is the headline says things are down, but if there's -- when you look at seattle, one month, one and a half month inventory, some markets similar, if there's no homes or good homes to buy,

shouldn't we expect the home sales number to go down? >> we should expect that, of course, but what we want to know is when is that inventory going to go up? a couple things stant standing in the way. negative equity. people are still under water. and number two that whole move up buyer dynamic. if you're not getting the first-time buyers in to buy the homes then people who want to sell and move up they're not going to list their homes. we need more construction. we are woefully on housing starts. so hopefully that will change in the spring. that's the expectation. >> it is a catch 22, suspect is? for trying to explain what is a complicated thing. let's look at what blackberry shares are doing. may have lost half their value in 2013 but not deterring hem from having luxurious ambitions. releasing a smartphone the price tag north of $2,000. the porsche designed p 9982

boasts stainless steel accents and clad in leather. one limited edition version is even wrapped in crocodile leather runs on the blackberry 10 operating system which has failed to really catch on since it launched this year but maybe might be a last hurrah for blackberry. >> alligator tears about that crocodile case. when did i become mr. silver lining? i thought i was mr. negative -- >> you're mr. silver lining. mr. hope. >> we became optimistic in june of 2011. >> which was the right time. >> the previous decade i was terrified. >> you were ahead of the optimistic curve. >> i like that. >> still ahead, wall street's pluckiest little stock and speaking of pluck, herb greenberg will join us to talk about herbal life. >> and the united states of amazon. what the retailer is doing to become the next great american brand. ♪

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it is street talk time op hump day. what's going on with priceline trading at all-time highs back to its ipo which was -- >> 19.99. >> perfect. >> you're not going to believes

this call. priceline shares are up right now about 2.5%. goldman sachs adding them to their conviction buy list and raised the price target on pcln to $1500. per share. that's 30% higher than the stock, see upside from potential recover y in europe. $1500 price target on priceline. >> considering what a crowded space it is. fifth and pacific reiterated a buy and top pick. for those of you who do not know the former liz claiborne. >> fnp the new name. up 1.6%. they continue retail expansion for their kate spade stores and also positive tail ends from store maturation and ongoing globalization. did cut estimates a tad only because fifth pacific is getting out early. own the juicy couture brandp.

>> pink very lore. >> seen on flights to vegas. getting out of their lease on fifth avenue because they got offered $51 million to leave that lease earlier so a new tenant can pay more. >> not a good day for dsw. green reiterating a sell. department stays may be taking their business. their target is 36. by the way, folks, playing at home, that's 20% less than the current share price for dsw. >> next up is ashland, the company making a change according to one analyst, not impacting the stock that much. >> deutsch bank expecting the company to spin off their valvoline oil brand. complete ashland's transformation to a chemical company, their rating remains a buy, target 105 bucks, about 15% upside to where the stock price is right now, lagged the market up about 12%. >> and herbalife is getting a

nice boost today as well with the ceo announcing an increased stake in the company. herb, i would like to bring you in on this one. we're talking about bill sterits and seems as if he wants to personally weigh in on the fight. >> he says he's analyzed the business model, sees -- he believes in the business model. here's what you have to think about. this is a company that is still waiting for its reaudit. auditor issue. they expect that done by the end of the fourth quarter. we're in the fourth quarter. cfo -- >> new auditors. >> the cfo in the last conference call said he sort of hedged himself, done when it's done. weight important, will there be anything in this audit where the new auditors are pushed to say we want it to know how much of this product is sold at retail, what is retail, things things like that still matter. a lot of chatter that the company will end up doing an lbo. if it does, i will still stand by this in terms of saying it's in the mlm industry, even if it

goes private -- whoever finances it, will then have to deal with the issue of still the risks that will -- >> i don't know enough. i don't offer investment recommending days. i don't know why anybody would want to own a stock where you have smart people buying stakes, other people saying there's zero value. buyer sell with a $5 price target difference, another when you have a guy saying it's worthless or worth all this. if they can't figure it out and a medium conclusion isn't it gambling. >> it could be. although remember, stirrupps involved in the technology that created the protein shake. the drinks, the formula one, so he's got the buyers. >> he's drinking the coolaid so to speak. >> or whatever is in there. >> speaking of delicious treats chickp has been hot lately, it's early but tyson foods is the best performing stock in the s&p 500 this week.

we're not three days fully in but tyson up nearly 8%. it's been hot this year as well. does it make it too hot to handle? let's ruffle feathers. talking numbers with jonathan of mkm partners on the technicals, fundamentals andy bush, publisher of the bush update here. andy, fundamentally, do you like tyson? >> yeah. tyson has got great story. obviously when you're trading stocks and you're looking for investments look for new information and if you're looking to buy, looking for positive information and that's what we got out of tyson. great story. they beat earnings but they also beat on sales with a big increase in china. this is a company moving forward, too, as they purchase two food processing companies or prepared food processing companies in utah and california. so they're stepping into that space and as the retail sales numbers pointed out consumers are having a little more money, may spend more money on this space. one of the best things that has happened to tyson so just like starbucks benefiting from lower

coffee prices, tyson, of course, is benefited from the dramatic drop in corn prices. so analysts, you know, are looking for a 22% growth in earnings going into next year. i like this stock. i think it's got upside. >> okay. you like the stock, but i'm disappointed in you, andy bush, for not jumping on the pun bandwagon. you seemed like the kind of guy out that would do that. >> it's out there, tyson pretty yummy at these levels. >> not chicken about making a joke. what the are the technicals telling us. >> andy makes great fundamental points. we would argue those fundamental reasons are why the stock has done so well and a lot is priced in. we want to be selling into the strength. if you look at a long-term chart going back to 2000 you'll see why. there's a long-term resistance trend line off 2004 and 2007 peaks right where tyson stalled this year back in august. we had a big gap down. and if you look at the stock and a little shorter term on one-year chart you can see that

gap down around 32.25, unfilled gap. prices returning to that area. so we would expect if that price gets filled you would see more sellers come in and we would want to be selling into that strength as well. >> so i think in conclusion, you believe in the short term tyson shares could lay an egg. thank you very much. fundamentally he likes it. technically he doesn't. one of these days these puns will come home to roost. check out the on-line edition of talking numbers in partnership with yahoo! finance. >> i'm done with puns. still ahead a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity what one cnbc best says you have coming to you if you short the market. we're going to show you how badly that could end. >> why one guy told me this morning via e-mail he would streak naked if something happened with jc penney. what that is and he's here, by the way. bill griffeth, a man always fully clothed what's coming up. >> and will remain so. thank you. muni bonds are extremely popular with retail investors because of

that is tax-free status, perceived safety. now allegations of widespread fraud in one of the largest cities in the nation, raising concerns that investors may not be getting what they bargained for. we have that story coming up. amazon reportedly is expantsing its private label offerings to include supermarket goods. find out if that move could be the key to boosting amazon's notoriously razor thin profit margins. maria and i look forward to seeing you for the top of the hour for the important hour of the last trading day. more puns coming your way after this. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 searching for trade ideas that spark your curiosity tdd# 1-800-345-2550 can take you in many directions. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 you read this. watch that. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 you look for what's next. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 at schwab, we can help turn inspiration into action tdd# 1-800-345-2550 boost your trading iq with the help of tdd# 1-800-345-2550 our live online workshops tdd# 1-800-345-2550 like identifying market trends. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 now, earn 300 commission-free online trades.

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cme group: how the world advances. crazy bye fur cated market where you have cheap and expensive stocks inside the same sector and when this easy money period ends and maybe before as we see some of the fundamentals start to soften you will have an opportunity to make a lot of money on the short side. >> that was john on cnbc earlier on today. what are the best short plays to make in this market? dominic chu has been looking at what has worked and what has not. dom? >> mandy, how about this version of name that stock.

based upon the short selling market we took a look at s&p 500 companies that have the greatest short interests, most number of people placing big bets against the company shares. some bets have worked out pretty well. this stock, the mystery stock, at the end of last year was about a $48 stock and was one that was an interesting reveal because this particular name was in at least -- one important sector, teen retail. it's a big name there, any guesses? >> abercrombie & fitch. >> let's take a look at this. this over the past year has shown a different sized move in this particular chart. you can see down to $35, down about 26% over the past year. this short bet worked. another short bet that really worked out well for investors was this company dealing in natural resources down about $38.57 at the end of last year. >> cliffs. >> it's already there. it's cliffs. >> you gave away two-thirds of the name. the company is cliffs natural resources. >> that was the giveaway.

>> this supermarket chain is in whole foods as well as partial foods. >> that's right. >> and the most shorted stock, isn't fit. >> one of the most shorted stocks in the s&p. here's a couple other ones that didn't work out very well for investors at all. these stocks went up, therefore killing the short side bets. this stock was a $10.64 stock, back in the day. it was or still is at least in postage and that kind of business. >> pitney bowes. >> this stock up about 120%. that squeezed out all of the short bets and here's one of the bigger ones we've been talking about for some time, this stock ended at $6.34, it is in the semiconductor business and it's been on a tear. any guesses? >> micron. >> yes. >> micron. >> nice. >> this stock up massively you can see here, up 200 %. >> i think our viewers need and listeners need to understand, that was excellent. >> prompt teres, no scripts.

>> no. >> no nothing. >> that was not -- the old drury, the other day she did cheat. >> oh, come on. >> you did, you're like it's alkaed my. >> you nailed it. you crushed it today. cliffs natural resources -- >> also crushing it -- >> on my stocks draft team. >> way to go. >> what do you have to say? >> herb, what do you reckon about this? >> we're ins this period where you can tell how -- the hubris in this bull market is what strikes me. as i tweeted out last night, i want to share this with you, this was very good if i don't say so myself. the sign of what -- >> i am excellent if i don't say so myself. >> a sign of where we are in this market, some guy tweets safe to jump into tesla, herb is on the case, that means only one thing, straight up. i have to tell you, years ago when i used to see that and hear that kind of thing it used to concern me. >> that's because it was on a letter with cutout letters from a magazine somebody sent you.

now it's easier. >> but what i've learned over the cycles, sir brian, is that when you see that and you see that kind of hubris you are close to an inflection point. it may not be next week, next month but you're close. this is the people feeling they can go over the shorts an just feel they're going to go up. >> you bring up a good point. we have to go. what does worry me about this rally it is a low quality rally. the stocks have been leading it the last couple weeks and months, with all due respect to the names, low quality names. >> like the one we're about to talk about. >> and many others by the way. seems like people are getting desperate on what stocks to buy, feels that way. >> yeah. because it's been so easy. the retailer investor gets in. >> jc penney, has that finally hit rock bottom? the stock soaring today, soared over the past month. a man that threatened to streak down naked to wall street is coming up next. >> jane wells will tell us why everyone needs to just stop whining about a coming wine crisis. jane?

>> oh, it smells so good in here. what happens when you put napa together with duck dynasty? you get happy happy happy hour, that and the chinese wine puzzle when "street signs" returns. you really love, what would you do?" ♪ [ woman ] i'd be a writer. [ man ] i'd be a baker. [ woman ] i wanna be a pie maker. [ man ] i wanna be a pilot. [ woman ] i'd be an architect. what if i told you someone could pay you and what if that person were you? ♪ when you think about it, isn't that what retirement should be, paying ourselves to do what we love? ♪

the dow down 51, gold down 30 bucks an ounce. meantime jc penney reporting a third quarter loss a bit more than analysts expected. revenues in line with estimates. more importantly what jc penney said about the fourth quarter. that stock is up 6.5% to $9.27. and by the way, if you haven't been paying attention, it's up about 35% now in just the past month. wow. joining us, cnbc contributor former department store executive jan rogers negativen, herb here as well, john fortt, get to him in just a second on an amazon story which is cool. jan, why did you threaten to streak naked if something -- you sent me an e-mail, i will streak

naked if something happens with jc penney. what was that? >> but you chicknd out on the other half of the bet. >> i did. >> if they had better than an 8% comp in the fourth quarter you had to run naked down wall street, but below 3% i would run naked down wall street. >> exactly. the world is hoping -- >> you're in the middle. >> i'll tell you why i turned down the 8% thing, other than the fact i'm a slow runner and don't want to give people time to look that much, but it's that they could come in above 8% with the way they're discounting or people think they're doing. >> i believe they will come in above 8%. that's why i was willing to make the bet. even if nothing goes right they'll come in about 3%. if things go right they'll come in above that. that's why i was willing to put you on the bubble and let you go streaking frost bitten down wall street. >> a good point brian makes about how much they're discounting. i went to the manhattan mall store of jc penney the other day and i was astounded number one by how lovely and bright and new and clean and full it was, but number two, be everything was so

cheap. okay. how are they making any money? how are they making anything in terms of margins? >> they're not. they proved that today. their gross margin 29.5%. they have to get back to somewhere above 35 to be >> although as cramer said this morning on "squawk on the street," it struck me the most of anything anyone has said. that s he believes it's now more of a muddler like kohl's? what do you think? >> i told somebody yesterday, you know, in the short term, this is a good play. they're going to get better. they're going to run positive comps for six quarters, have normalized gross margin. in the long run, i don't know, it's another big retailer.

>> does it take bankruptcy off the table? >> bankruptcy has been off the table since they issued equity. if it didn't come further off the table today, any short betting the number has to be pushing it out to 20 15. >> you're 1,000% convinced i will at least loose the bet about negative comps in the fourth quarter. >> you don't have have a prayer. >> story of my life. >> retailers, like jcpenney, obviously facing stiff competition from the likes of amazon. and that competition may be getting even fiercest. amazon appears to be planning its private label of consumer products. let's bring in jon fortt. what do we make of this? is it going to happen? >> it looks like they laid so much groundwork it wouldn't happen. they're trying to hire food safety managers, project managers, to figure out what they should be putting out there, project managers to figure out what they should be putting out there, people to find the manufacturers to make the private label goods. i mean, they could always slow roll, it but it seems like

they're focused on food, on baby, on a lot of areas you would find from private label, food and beverage business is about $100 billion business. if amazon wants to dive in, as careful as they are with pricing, you would expect them to want that levera leverage. >> works well for target, works well for walmart. we used to run 500 basis point private label when i was in the business. they'll jump right in. i think they should. what would be the reason not to? the only reason you don't -- >> if you don't like it. >> if people don't like it or if you get wrong, you take all the risk. amazon is a company that's willing to take risk. after all, they don't have to make money. they'll jump right into stshgs i think. >> the top category for private

labels is meat. your beef, chicken, frozen -- >> that disturbs me, though. >> that's not going to happen. >> there are stores, grocery store, well-known chain near my house, highly respected, they keep going more and more to private labels. i've pulled back from shopping there because sometimes you want the brands with the brands you trust. >> what if they had -- what if amazon sent you a great cut of steak. how would that make you feel about their grocery -- >> let's find out, amazon. >> a serious point here, treehouse food, publicly traded stock, thank you for bringing it up here. this is the number one maker or number two maker of private label brands for -- if you see joe blow's whatever, they probably make it. would this be bad for them or good if they worked together? do we know who they're going to partner with or is amazon, jon, literally going to do this themselves ground up? >> they seem to be hiring people who will decide who they partner with on the manufacturing and on the supplier end. it seems to me like it could be very good for folks like treehouse, like conagra, who

have invested against the grain in private label over the past couple years when it looked like that business was more shaky. >> thank you so much. forget moonshine, "duck dynasty" fans will soon have a new drink to sip on. jane wells explains next. ♪

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gold on a plane. 24 gold bars were found stashed inside an airplane bathroom in india. cleaner found the gold inside two bags in the plane. the discovery, worth more than $1.1 million. india is home to some of the biggest consumers of gold in the world. with that, there's been a lot of smuggling. gold down 3 3 bucks an ounce right now. how about that? who stores gold in a plane's bathroom? i imagine a crook. >> or someone who got off the plane and says, my gold stash? jane wells is here to tell us all about ducks and planes. >> you're so wrong. we're not talking cold duck. we're talking duck commander. they compete with craft beer and spirits 37 even in napa, winemakers have to find new audiences. >> cheers. >> willie and cory robertson of

"duck dynasty" are selling 25,000 cases of their new wine in walmart. even stirred up controversy with a christian group. why wine? will they fans buy it? they say, why not? and yes. >> i tried to make wine one time, and realized that i was not that good at it. it's a lot harder than it looks. >> our duck calls are made for every man, for the duck hunter, the real duck hunter. it doesn't have to be the fancy duck call. it can be price range for everyone, so we wanted to do that with wine. start out with a $10 wine everyone can buy and it's good and everyone can enjoy. you know, we hope to make more. we have more wines planned for the future. >> now, speaking of the future, for the entire u.s. wine industry, fastest growing market is china, but it's been a difficult market to uncork. >> china is a big puzzle for us in the industry. we're trying to get our hands around it and understand it. the french have a big head start

there relative to everyone here in the united states. we're excited about what china may hold but no one can quantify this-t at this point. >> china is just an unknown world. it's like shooting that rocket to mars that went off today. they'll hit mars before we figure out what the marketplace in china is. >> that's fred franzia, the blunt-speaking ceo of blanco wine. he says chinese appear to be drinking wine for health reasons and not necessarily because of the way it tests. dbs research says chinese buyers were, quote, less than enthusiastic at the recent hong kong wine fair. guys, still a lot of potential but a work in progress. back to you. >> jane wells, thank you very much. let's take a quick look at the markets. going into that, dow was up by 16 points. now down by 60 points. we have lost steam. nasdaq also down by 7 points. it was positive along with the s&p. and i think that the ten-year is probably just ticked up a smidge.

2.79%. it was 2.74 going into the minutes. brian, did we learn anything new today in the minutes? >> the fed will taper at some point, 2014, 2015, 2016, who cares. the bond market may eventually do it. 100 points off the basis of our lows. gold down more than 30 bucks an ounce a again. the gold bulls continue getting burned. thanks for watching "street signs" on that note. >> "closing bell" is next. hi, everybody. good afternoon. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo at the new york stock exchange. hey, bill. >> we were on dow 16,000 watch. but i don't know, it doesn't look so good right now after the fed minutes came out at 2:00 eastern time. the market pulled back. we're down at the lows of the session right now. interest rates are moving higher. we have a lot more on the fed minutes and what the taper talk has done to the stock market so far today. >>