tv Fast Money CNBC November 22, 2013 5:00pm-5:31pm EST
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of the new york stock exchange. thank you also to the security guards, the traders, specialists, friends, all at the new york stock exchange. they gave me a warm welcome earlier. clapping, i thought trading stopped for a moment. this has been my home much of the last 20 years, thank you for welcoming me here so many years ago, thank you for the education, thank you for your friendship. it's been a true joy. thank you to all of the early building blocks, bob bright, tom rogers, jack welch among others, thank you mark hoffman, i wish you and your team success. to all the investors out there, i hope we continue the conversation soon. have a great weekend, thank you so much for being with us, that does it for closing bell tonight. have a good weekend. nasdaq markets in times square, this is fast money, america's post market show. here's the lineup. making money at record highs, s
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& p closing above 1800 the first time ever. more than 82 companies hitting a 52 week high in today's session, our fast money traders finding you opportunities in this market. and mother nature may be the ultimate scrooge for holiday shopping, this black friday. we have the chief operating officer of the most profitable place. and cable network love triangle, the details in the battle over time warner cable. tim seymour, steve grasso and guy adami. let's get to our top story. the s & p and dow closing at highs of the day. the do you seeing its longest weekly winning streak in three years. so with another day of records, is this becoming a true stock pickers market? guy adami? >> it always has been, to a large extent. yeah, it's been that type of market. i do think it's a stock picker's market, we've done a good job. i'm shocked that we didn't trade down to 1760 this week, i
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thought we were headed. there i thought we would go to 1740 the week before. the fact we continue to make these moves without any semblance of even a minor move to the downside scares me. so i think 1760 is in the cross hairs, i'm surprised we are here. >> correlations have come off as opposed to risk on risk off, it's truly just a market of stocks as opposed to stock market. >> yeah. but you know, to guy's point, we've had so many pullbacks, when i looked at the chart i would swear we would have every reason to backtrack to 1730, backtrack to 1698. we haven't done it. but i think it's coming. >> take a look at this chart. this was making rounds on the floor. this suggests the market is on the cusp of a crash. so the lines match up. is there any merit? >> that's the thing. if you went back, and any period of time, you understand probably find yourself a period that matches every other period, 10, 20, 30 years ago. the difference you need to look
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at. what was going on during this period of time? back in the '20s, there's another chart, you had easy money coming to an end. you had a fiscal tightening. and that's what everybody is talking about. if you have this pattern, look at what happens next. who knows, it's one input into a myriad of investment decisions, but something to keep an eye on. more importantly, everybody is looking at it. so it starts to enter the conscious. >> to say that '29 didn't have what we could have here which is a huge policy failure, and i think the fed this week, the reason the market is up this week, is because the needle is scarier than the shot. ultimately people are in a place where taper is priced in on some level. you have begun to see the bond market gets ahead of the stock market. people are okay. but to say policy failure still is not a big big issue out there. and if you look at the ipo market, how many companies are looking to take chips off the table? the buybacks, not necessarily good for minority shareholders, you see core concentrated management teams becoming more
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powerful and shareholders bought out. there are things to be scared about, some things definitely to not say hey, this is going on forever. >> interesting you mentioned buybacks, that's cited as one thing coincident with peaks. buybacks peaked in the second quarter. strong in the third. not as strong as the second quarter. this is a record year. >> jpmorgan has done great work on buybacks, 60% of the earnings gross from 2011 have come from taking shares off the market. so that starts to end, cash flow starts to decline, or rates go up, that could be a problem. >> so still at record highs, we want to know what our traders are buying right now. so tim, kick it off. you're looking at china. >> first of all it is recovered. if you look at data coming out of china, china mobile is a dog. this is the largest mobile company in the world, a company with a lot of structural issues with their network. some are starting to turn. network looks like it's getting ready to take on more 3-g. it's not 4-g. this is your apple plate. i talk about this all the time. i agree apple needs to do a deal here. but in the meantime, own china
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mobile, in fact they priced in lower, they are moving towards higher services, a place you're getting paid 4% a year, it's nine times earnings, it's dividend yield and in a market i think is seeing positive fund flows for the first time. >> yeah. beakers, you're taking a look at a refiner outperformed the markets. >> yeah. it continues. if you look at what's going on in refinery space, we haven't built the new refinery in the u.s. in 20 years. then you look at we have a lot of oil out there, but refineries are running at full capacity. full tilt. there is no more spare capacity here. look what's happened to gasoline over the last couple days, could be the start of something bigger. to me, that's the biggest threat to this whole economy and to this market. you get rising gas prices, because we just don't have the capacity to make more. >> interesting thing about valero, compared to other refiners, it is cheaper. on a price to earnings basis. >> absolutely. it will benefit from the reduction in the ethanol credits. >> all right. you're going to a stock close to all time highs.
quote
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>> i am. and because, when you look back on the long term chart, it's closing out at '05 level of 43, 44, 20% move from here. yahoo. and i'm buying it -- >> can you guess the stock? >> there it is right there. >> there. okay. >> the radio listeners couldn't see it. and i'm buying it, because of ali baba, 24% stake in that. >> guy. nice suspenders. >> you like that? >> 1980s night kicking it. >> old school. >> anyway. >> you like that. >> mastercard. >> at an all time high. why do you want it? it's not a consumer story as much as people want to make it about the consumer, i don't think it is. people are spending money differently. you have a whole class of people coming in. new consumers in the third world markets, developing nations continue to see that growth. listen, valuation is a stretch of 25 times forward earnings, that's been the knock on these guys for the last literally
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$400, it's a secular story i think continues to work. >> all right. next right here, retail. it is one week until black friday. should you expect a dismal holiday shopping season? or will consumers fill their bags with all of the discounts, chief operating officer that owns and operates some of the most profitable shopping centers in this country and around the world. bill, great to have you with us. >> thank you very much. >> i want to go to the trends that have been emerging out of the retail earnings. that is the high end is doing well. the midtier, lower tier, having some troubles s. that what you're seeing in the industry at large? >> i think i would say it differently based on the last quarter. the high end continues to be pretty strong. not quite as strong as it was last year. but you saw real strengths with macy's, so the midprice is showing strengths. where you're seeing real weakness is walmart target. best buy. lots of discounting. sears is weak. but the low end seems to be hurt and going for discount right now. whereas, fashion does seem to be making a difference to macy's,
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dillards, et cetera and the high end. >> i want to ask your thoughts about one of your tenants, jcpenney, there was a report today bullish of jcpenney saying they expect plus 10% november same store sales. are you seeing that evidence in your malls in terms of traffic? >> they look a lot better. they have merchandise in the stores. you can't sell it, if you don't have it. and obviously, the management team seems much more focused, i mean we've known mike many years in full disclosure he was on our board at one time. and i really think he's done an excellent job trying to pull things together. clearly they are up against weak comps. and i think they will show a lot of strengths. i don't know about the 10%, i'm not good enough to know that. but there is no question that they are fixing the home store, i think that's more of a 2014 issue. because the merchandise is bought for 2013. so they can't really evolve that yet. that's a key element for them. soft home, they have been one of the largest sellers of drapes in the entire country for years. >> of drapes. >> of drapes. but they went out of that
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business. they went out of the luggage business. there is whole categories they went out of, that were enormously profitable for them. so i think as they come back into those businesses, you're going to see tremendous increases in noi and sales. but first with noi. >> what do you see as far as managing square footage, when you see a store like best buy, that had a problem with square footage, do you see these big box retailers, do you see the bigger retailers cutting back on square footage to a certain extent. or do you see the prices going up? do you see them shifting. >> i am not really in the big box area. but in big box you're clearly seeing a shrinking of the box. whether bed bath or best buy, et cetera. and the other hand, you also see some increasing size, because, you have this sort of seamless inventory now between the web and between the store. so some of the stores are trying to get bigger, they are trying to encompass more of the skus, they are carrying on the web in the store. you see a push and pull. and the mall, i would say there is still a trend toward bigger.
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we are starting to see a trend back to smaller. under 21s have been getting bigger. now you see abercrombie and others talking smaller stores. >> bill, i want to ask you about the weather and over that weekend, there's a storm forecast to hit along the i-95 corridor through the carolinas, very messy weather. rain, sleet, snow, you name it. how much of a problem is that for this weekend? >> remember, we have a short season this year. >> right. >> the shortest it can be. i think it will have a little more of an impact than it would be if we had a longer season. on the other hand, i think pretty much, people have a certain amount that they want to spend. and they are going to find a way to spend it. if they are on a budget of $700 or $800 for the season, $500, whatever it is, if they have 10 days or 20 days, they may do a little less comparison shopping, and we're clearly seeing some reduction in traffic in the malls in general. but an increase in sales, so people are being more efficient about their shopping, i think
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they are using their smart phones. so that they know what merchandise is in the store before they come. they are able to check other stores while they are in the mall. so they are able to be more efficient about their shopping experience, and the mall owners are on sort of the -- the 10 yard line of bringing out new technology in the malls, that i think will make that better. >> bill, thank you for coming by. hope to have you back, talk about san juan and your expansion in asia, bill taubman. what's your trade? >> couple more bucks for belts instead of suspenders. target, these guys gave you poor numbers. i think you start to nibble at target somewhere around these levels, 63 is an important level. this is a company that has nothing exciting going on. it has been well priced into the stock if you look at the fall. canada will continue to be a problem. they continue to see competitive juices from walmart, having said that, despite the low end, lower gas prices, target is great. >> coming up next the console gaming wars heating up ahead of the holidays with the x box 1
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hitting shelves. what should you buy? we sent tim seymour out to test them both. channel checking so to speak. see inside scoop in the mind set of the player. that's next. approved a new stapler purchase in three years. but then i saw the new windows tablet, with a real keyboard, usb port, and full office. it's a tablet that works for work. plus, it's got apps and games, for after hours, of course. compared to an ipad -- way more value. these tablets are such a steal; i couldn't find a reason not to buy them. ♪ honestly, i wanna see you be brave ♪ for all those who sleep for all those who sleep too hot or too cool, now there's a solution. sleep number dual temp, the revolutionary temperature-balancing layer with active air technology that works on any mattress brand, including yours. it's only at a sleep number store, where this holiday season, the hottest sleep innovations make the coolest gifts - including sleep number dual temp. discover dual temp at one of our 425 sleep number
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i don't know if you guys know this, tim was running late today. he's usually late. but extraordinarily late today. that's because we caught him at toys are us testing out the play station 4. check it out. >> this is really cool. i'm about to get a red card. i've got my coach over my shoulder here, this guy, i would be nowhere without him. i know i'm about to go down. oh. all right. let's do this the right way. what am i doing wrong out there? just not handling my joystick clearly. this is addicts if, hialeah dikt if, people. this is better than playing the stock market. fortunately i'm a better portfolio manager, oh. you got to pay attention to the game. i'm out. >> play station 4 came out last week, today microsoft launched x-box 1 gaming console the first game system from microsoft since the x-box 360 in 2005, customers
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lined up. can it compete with sony's new play station 4. tim? >> play station 4 was sold out, 12:01. people sleeping out in times square, which i was not. i'll tell you what, the x-box 1 is a big part of -- it's the first test for microsoft. it has services and software, that are big part of the entire microsoft system, see how this works. i loved it. >> are you a gamer? >> what do you think? i mean, what do you think i do when i leave this show? game it up. we play -- when you're at home, and we have our headphones on, and we play like that. >> very good point. >> sons of leon game. game stop. big move down there, that big downdraft on big volume, held 48.5. that had been a level a number of times earlier this year. you can get game stop up 2% today against a 48.5 low. >> first it was david einhorn following regis philbin into
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micron. now a cue out of grasso's short group on ibm. grasso was one step ahead of his call to short the name earlier this week. take a listen. >> opportunity to increase eps going forward. hardware business, no growth there. the businesses that do have growth are sluggish, and the margins are squeeze. >> a deteriorating free cash flow. >> like i said, the businesses, that they are successful at will get margins squeezed. and you have the legacy business, that is just on their back. and if you look at it technically, it's lower highs, lower lows. >> absolutely. the chart looks terrible on this. take that back to what we were talking about, how much more does this market have to go? if you look at ibm it leads the market. so if you see weakness here, you could see weakness in the rest of the market. >> i wouldn't touch it, just because i think there is so much negativity in the stock. they missed on the top line for
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the last four or five quarters, i don't think they can continue to do that. so -- >> so no touch long or short. >> i wouldn't touch this one. >> all right. what is goldman sachs saying ben bernanke's next move at the fed should be? we'll tell you. more fast straight ahead. >> fast money means trading. everybody has to bring their best information each and every night. the entire trading day is the preparation for the show that night. >> it's idea generation, it's all about giving you a framework for how to look at the market. as the world has changed, our show has evolved. i am guy adam each. i am fast money. >> i am pete najarian, i am fast money. >> are you fast money? go to the nbc universal store, and order your fast money tee. run with the big dogs. i need to rethink the core of my portfolio. what i really need is sleep. introducing the ishares core, building blocks for the heart of your portfolio. find out why 9 out of 10 large professional investors choose ishares for their etfs.
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we're watching shares of jcpenney in the after hour session trading lower by a percent and a half on news it will be removed from the s & p 500 and replaced by ingersoll rand spinoff. the tick ore that is alle. again, that will start trading december 1st. so that's what is happening here, down 1.3% on jcp. in case you missed today's top moments on cnbc here is a
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rapid-fire recap on the executive edge. >> there is another potential bidder out there for time warner cable. and that company is our parent, comcast. >> the nominal growth rate is half of what we should see. and there is so much event risk and volatility out there, pulling the support out of the economy right now it's probably not a great thing. >> the anticipated acceleration and growth, that we hope for in the second half of the year, really hasn't materialized yet. i'm forecasting that we will see a pickup in 2014, but at the moment, we're seeing a slow growth moment. >> the fed has been by far the biggest buyer fixed income instrument for a while now. and so investors are just not sure of the price they see on the screen, is that the real price? >> this could bring the state, you know, an additional
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$174,000 -- or million dollars worth of tax money. we're expecting sales to be close to about half a billion dollars statewide. >> time warner cable, tim. >> look, this is a big deal. this is about the cable company's bulking up to have leverage against the networks, watch the trade. it seems good for everybody and one that will get through any monopoly. >> what did you make of the goldman sachs comments about not knowing the true price on the screen. >> that's the problem out there. we know it's a manipulated market. so eventually we need to get back to a regular market, and nonmanipulated market. we'll get real market pricing on rates, because companies don't want to do anything, they are so afraid that rates will spike in the future. so we need to stop. >> we want to go to our special guest, he joins us ahead of a rundown hero highway taking place this sunday a special event raising money for u.s. army rangers, sergeant jim regan, chairman and ceo of the lead the way fund. great to see you again. >> how are you? thanks for having us back. it's been two years.
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>> it has been a while. so what are you expecting in terms of fundraising, who is participate something i imagine lots of wall street folks. >> to inform the audience, you know, we're a nonprofit, that takes care of active duty wounded, and rangers, and their families. and we provide assistance the government doesn't take care of. so we are in the process of raising money here. and back in october, early october, unfortunately, we had a mass casualty situation, where we had four troops killed as well as 11 seriously wounded rangers. it was during a period of time when the government was shut down. so we stepped up. we paid for two army rangers to be buried. and we provided financial assistance to our rangers, that were brought into walter reed as well as san antonio, that were seriously wounded. it's just an ongoing situation for us, most of the audience doesn't realize, we're still in this war. and our special operations soldiers, are still going at it. and we need your help, as far as the funding is concerned. to provide those resources, that
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the government doesn't do. >> jim, when you started this, like a lot of clarts, it was smaller scale. now it's become a national thing. i'm sure a lot of people in the audience would love to know how to participate, how they can help. how they can be part of something that is worth their while. >> thank you. guy, it has. it's blossomed, we are building homes now. the rundown heroes highway was done after my son, jimmy, who was sergeant james regan. and he was quite a young man. and what we do, we honor jimmy, we honor his brothers, that were killed in the past. we have lost like 68 guys now, since 9/11. we have ape wonderful patriotic day. pier 46 starts at 9:45. we would love to have the audience come down. hopefully we'll have enough shirts for everybody. then from there at 11:30 we have a nice lunch, luncheon at the lighthouse right off the hudson. at that time, we will be providing two portraits to two wounded rangers killed on the same evening, on august 8th,
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2010. as well as a first responder. that gentleman's name is claude richards. and claude was a phenomenal young man. he was killed in the towers, when they went down. he was an army ranger. he came out of second battalion on the west coast. so we're going to provide him with a portrait, his family with a portrait. it will be a patriotic day. we are going to honor these young men, celebrate their lives, that's what they would want. and would love to have more of your audience there. and participate and help lead the way fund.org. >> thanks for coming by. great cause. jim regan of lead the wave. time for the final trade. tim. >> go lead the way. >> beakers. >> yeah. holly frontier, i like that one. >> grasso. >> las vegas sands has to hold the $68 level. >> guy.
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>> you had reege the other day. >> yeah. he called you the italian stallion. >> micron. >> new high today. >> it wants to get up and go. micron blows through the level and off to the races. >> all right. that does it for us, i'm melissa lee thanks for watching, see you monday. meantime options action begins right after this break. honestly, i'm not looking for five-star treatment.
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this is options action, tonight afraid to buy stocks now? >> i don't want to come in here and look stupid. too late. >> no, it's not, will. we're looking at late stage rally plays that could have your portfolio back in the game. we'll tell you what they are. plus -- >> free your mind. >> with the government off gm's back could shares follow into higher tier, we'll have a special report. talk about a hot hand. >> all
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