>> that's a mouthful. >> and manny tweets #trampled. which kind of sums it up in many ways. >> i think it does. i like walmarthungergames. >> kayla, thank you for today. >> thank you for having me. >> that brings us to the end of "squawk on the street" for this black friday. let's send it over to a special early extravaganza of a "closing bell." thank you, simon. and welcome indeed to a very special noontime edition on the east coast of "closing bell," i'm kelly evans. on this black friday, we are coming to you live from the mall at short hills in new jersey. i've dragged him here. >> i cannot believe i'm saying, i'm bill griffeth, here at the short hills mall in new jersey on a black friday. i'm shopping on a black friday. this is my worst nightmare here. >> i don't know. i saw you over there googling

deals, looking for some specials. >> well, yes. i'll go online. i'll shop all day there. but coming out here? i will say, we're finding some stores are doing a lot better than others. >> yes. >> it's very hit-and-miss. we'll be talking about that over the next couple of hours here. >> because that's the real advantage of being here, bill, the shopping mall. we should mention, as you're out across the country, you are being watched. there are analysts here. there are retailers who are measuring traffic with digital devices and just taking a look at the shopping bags. i mean, this is actually where the research happens, for people trying to figure out who the winners and losers are today. >> we walked around the mall before the show. we met two analysts scouting around to see what was going on. we'll talk about that coming up. meantime, we've got morally going on wall street. the dow and s&p in railroad territory, up 45 points on the dow. we were up 76 earlier. nasdaq up 32. another 13-year high there, and the s&p up five, almost four points, 1,812.

>> we should keep in mind this is the last trading day of the month, and it looks like a record-breaking month for the indexes. we'll get plenty more on the markets in j uft a moment. -- just a moment. we've been standing by throughout the country with an up-close look at how black friday is shaping up for the real tail industry. our own courtney reagan is at a mall in ohio. julia boorstin is at a target in l.a. phil lebeau is at a walmart protest in chicago. >> and we have leanne gregg. >> and my good buddy jay gray, who goes anywhere for a story, at the mall of america in minnesota. so we'll get to them all, do a channel check on retail, over the next couple of hours. >> what an assignment -- have you been to the mall of america? >> i have. >> it is just enormous. >> that's crazy. neither of us is a shopper. >> yeah. >> and this may be black friday, with but this is also the last trading day for the month of november, and it's been another very good month for the equity markets. so let's talk about that, shall we? >> sure. joining us in the "closing bell"

exchanges is patricia powell from the powell financial group, eric kugan, rich peters, and mike mcqueen from hightower, john manley from wells fargo, and our very own rick santelli. so good afternoon to all of you. you know, rich peterson, let's just start with you. what are the numbers that surprise you most today about these markets? >> quelwell, again, kelly, we'r seeing the continuation, the war of 1812 was not with the fight over british. the war of 1812 is investors moving to higher ground. we're seeing the s&p 500 up 5%. if you look at december going forward, nine of the last 13 decembers have been positive. the average gain 1%. we're seeing, you know, strong profit growth, over 5.6% for the third quarter. the s&p 500, over 6.7% expectations for the fourth quarter. so it will, all in all, what we're seeing, you know, signs of continual growth of earnings, growth in multiple expansion.

but, you know, all within a reasonable bound. we're looking to a good year on close. >> you know, patricia, you make the point that we're in the fifth year of an economic recovery. i mean, by all measurements, that's the long and the tooth recovery. how much longer do you think that can last? >> we have a month to go. i think it can last through the end of the year, but i'm worried as we get into next -- as we get into next year. a lot of bad things happen in the fifth year. you might remember the crash of '87. that was a fifth year. we got a fifth year when we got through 1999, but then stepped off the cliff into 2000. i think you have to be somewhat cautious as you approach the end of this fifth year. by the way, the end of the fifth year ends in march. you know, i think people are going to be chasing the point you brought up, people will be seeing the november statements, and they're going to be getting a little more greedy, oh, my gosh, i don't have enough in the markets. i'm getting those phone calls already. >> exactly. erica, this is what i wanted to ask you. what are you advising clients as

we head into next year? should they maintain or increase their exposure to equities even at the all-time highs? >> we're talking about this is a great time to rebalance, trim off the gains, get back to your target allocations within your portfolios. and you may want to consider also having some defensive positions. these might be some risk mitigation or head strategies that could protect, as patricia said, as there definitely could be a pullback after the fifth year, and that you have the protections in place in the portfolio. >> mike, the queen, what are you doing with your clients? you don't think we're in a bubble yet here, so are you telling them to buy even more stocks at the lofty levels? >> well, we aren't in a bubble yet, as we define it. we don't think valuations are stretched that much. and we don't see signs of greed in our clients yet. we see cautious optimism, as consumers, and we see them still skewed toward risk aversion when it comes to their portfolios. so our outlook, and as we're explaining it to our clients, is we think 2014 could continue to

surprise to the upside. we think multiple expansion is still likely. given a couple of things like the slowdown in china and the great u.s. energy boom. so our clients are going along with us, and gradually increasing equity exposure. but in the right sectors. we see health care and technology, we still see value there. that's what we're trying to focus on, the pockets of value that remain. >> john manley, i walk into your office, the same question. you know, let's say i'm in the 50, 60-year-old range, where i'm worried that at this point, i can't afford to get into the market at a top. what do you do? what do you tell me to do in that position? >> i live that position. i mean, i tell you what i think i'm doing for myself. everything that made the market go up over the last few years is still in place. the most important, the fed is accommodative, the valuations are still not stretched on p/e, which matters as long as earnings are still coming through. you put it all together, decent valuations, strong earnings growth, an accommodative fed, and people who still worry --

the statement people who worried it wouldn't go up, now tell me it shouldn't go up. everything that made it go up is still in place. as long as the valuations are okay, and as long as the earnings keep going up, i'll be positive. if that changes, i'll change. it hasn't happened yet. >> patricia, you're hearing all of the bullish cases being made right now. and let's face it, are you telling your clients to get out of this market right now? if you are -- >> no. >> -- you're fighting the fed, you realize. >> i'm not telling them to get out. i'm telling them to be cautious. we're defensive in the portfolios. the other then -- thing is that i want to be sure they're a long-term investor. i'm pretty sure we'll get through december, but at some point, we're at minimum going to get a correction. we've not had a 10% correction in a very long time. we're going to get that correction. and you have to be sure that people are prepared for it, because if they're not, they will call you up and tell you, get me out at the bottom. they never call when markets are peaking, and say, get me out. so i think you really have -- >> your phone is not ringing right now? >> the question i'm getting is, do you think that i'm not

aggressive enough for my portfolio? >> ah, got it. >> do you think i should be a more aggressive investor? and the last time -- i'm getting some calls -- but the last time i got a lot of the phone calls was 1999. >> wow. all right. rick santelli, there's been plenty happening in the world here, especially as u.s. markets were closed yesterday. we saw the yen moving up towards that 103 level. we're still wondering what the impact of, say, looser policy in europe could be back here. as you watch the 10-year hit the 2.75% level, what's your take? >> well, my take is that interest rates, since the last fed meeting -- as you see on the charts -- have continued to move higher along with stocks. now, we understand that the stock market moving higher along with interest rates might be normal in a bygone time, but it really is t.i.n.a. time. there is no alternative. the real head-turner continues to be stocks and how they get along with rising rates -- we can call it a t.i.n.a. turner market, then. in the end, i think the stock

market is going to have to stand up and pay attention to higher rates if, for nothing else, even with the steep curve it calls into question a lot of the metrics we use to assess whether we're in a bubble or not, and one final thought. the dollar index has been riding the same pattern with stocks and interest rates, but it seems to be heading in the other direction. a little curve to it. so i would pay very close attention not only to the strength in the dollar-yen, but the overall weakness that may creep in under 80 should the dollar index turn. >> all right. >> -- just very quickly -- >> i'm curious, if you're going to want to buy something that's not performing that well, what will you buy right now? >> well, i think, again, on the rebalancing, i think it's areas where -- it depends on the risk tolerance, right? the emerging markets, for example, might be a good place to reallocate into right now. a lot of those risk mitigation alternative type strategies are not trading very high right now, so there's an opportunity to not only are you rebalancing, but

also buying an asset class in theory that should provide you protection should we see a correction. so there are pockets you can access right now. >> all right. got it. thank you, all, folks, very much, for joining us on this black friday. have a good weekend. enjoy shopping, too, by the way. if that's what you're into. >> tell us what you're buying. >> yeah, right. we're heading toward the close with about 50 minutes left. this is the holiday-shortened day. we're in record territory still. the dow up 44 points, the s&p high enough, any positive close is another record, as well. >> incredible. perhaps window-dressing effect for the end of the month. we'll continue to ask what investors should do here. up next, an all-star panel of analysts, which retail stock should be on your shopping list this holiday season. >> this is where we are. short hills mall in new jersey. actually, i'm told it's a lot more crowded in other parts of the mall than where we are right now. >> in fairness, bill, we are sitting by the prada. so the luxury wing of the mall is not the place you would expect to have the biggest foot traffic, anyhow.

>> don't have a lot of door busters at prada, i hear. also, a top executive at ibm gives us realtime data on who is winning the online shopping war on this black friday. and did you see this video of the fight breaking out at a walmart all over a television? it's pretty unbelievable. >> here we go again. >> it's not an isolated incident. more coming up on the "closing bell." stay with us.

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courtney reagan. >> you're introducing all of the guests. hello there. >> we're back. >> shopping is pretty steady here at the short hills mall in new jersey, and, of course, this is a very high-end mall, so we're not seeing the door busters offered first thing in the morning on this black friday. i think demeanor is a little more casual than what we see other places. >> they don't want to try too hard in luxury. you come to them. tiffany's not even participating. frankly, they don't seem to have to. anyway, we're at the mall here in short hills, as bill said, a more upscale place. courtney reagan is at the mall in dayton, ohio, fairfield mall. what can you tell us about foot traffic there? how would you characterize the environment generally, and are you seeing the door busters?

>> reporter: yeah, you know, kelly, it sounds like i'm in a mall different from where you and bill are today. here in dayton, ohio, this mall is very much a middle-class type of mall, as far as the shoppers and the stores are concerned. i've been here since 3:00 in the morning, and i can tell you that the foot traffic is probably right now at its peak. over the last two hours or so, i would actually guess that we've probably doubled in foot traffic. i went up to the food court. every single table is taken here. seeing a lot of folks walk out with bags from macy's and jcpenney. though some victoria secret and gap mixed in. just anecdotally, those seem to be the hot stores. from what i'm hearing from folks shopping here and the area, they hit the big-box retailers on thursday night, thursday afternoon, went home, took a break, and are coming back out to hit the mall now. the foot traffic is pretty good. most folks do have bags. it's not window shopping. it does look as though people are buying. >> wow.

all right, courtney reagan. stay right there. we want to get plenty more reaction to -- >> by the way, we're grateful you made it. we're grateful you made it to ohio. the weather didn't get in your weather. >> yeah, i made it. i made it. a hardy midwest girl, i made it all the way through. >> never a doubt. >> all right. let's get more now from patricia edwards at u.s. bank, green capital edward beader, and hello to all of you on this black friday. simeon, first to you, walking around anecdotally, looking at activity, what's your early read? >> it's a great question. what's interesting, so i wasn't in the malls at 3:00, so courtney has that on me. what i would say is the black friday of old is feeling like the black friday of old, because you're walking through and whether it's the promotions that are spread out within a few d s days, or it's the ability to shop online, i think if you take any snapshot in time, the traffic is going to be lower than it was last year. on the whole, you have the holidays, you're probably going

to get a similar level, maybe slightly down because of online. but at any given point in time, most malls will look something like this. >> patty, i'm the great cynic, as you know, and, you know, i -- i don't buy the notion that people are rushing out unless they're going for the door busters. they have something specific in mind, whether it's an electronic gadget, or whatever it s black friday is more just something out of a marketer's mind, don't you think, than anything else? >> absolutely. black friday's dead, but long live black fry-days, because we've seen this spread out over a much larger time period. i saw deals starting in october because of the early hanukkah, and i think you're going to continue to see deals go through christmas, actually. >> kelly, what did an analyst tell us? that they're finding that some -- for some retailers, the whole quarter kind of is concentrated on 12 specific shopping days. >> exactly. not just this quarter.

that any quarter is what we're hearing, again, that there's 12 days where maybe it's around a holiday, but everyone's heavily discounting, and whoever wins those days tends to win the season. eric, does that jive with your experience here, that face becoming more and more important on days like this, that the retailers who want to put up a good quarter put up good numbers here? >> yeah, you have to win basically the beginning and the end. you want to win on black friday, and you'll have to win the two or three days before christmas. that's really where the big -- the in-between, the traffic really collapses. that's where you have to make your money. >> simeon, we're watching a lot of people that got their cell phones out. they're almost -- it's the showrooming effect around here. do you see that? what effect does that have when people are shopping around here? are they comparison shopping or will they buy online after they've seen what they want to see here at the mall? >> i think it's a good point. you get a little bit of both. you're hearing more and more of the end commerce, from m

commerce to ecommerce, and there's more maybe on the commoditized items. the other day, i was looking at a boardgame, easy to price comp that, than an abercrombie sweater. it look more and more of a channel to buy. >> eric, what are the top picks for the retailers today? >> when we look at it, what we want to do is take advantage of the colder weather and some of the winners here. in the colder weather, take advantage of g3, which makes outerwear. for the -- there's one teen you need to own, american eagle. they're the best player in the business. they have the cleanest product. i think frankly they're in the best position here. and the other one, the turnaround, the guess. people haven't paid attention to this stock. they've changed their ways, and we would be aggressive buyers of that imthname. and the positives next week, are the comps and a lot of earnings. we'll have immediate feedback on how black friday did. >> patty, who do you like here? who are you trading long right now? >> you know, i think you really have to concentrate on what's selling, which is electronics,

and who's selling it. that goes to online, and it also goes to the folks who are going to be delivering the packages. >> and, simeon, finally to you. who are the winners and losers? >> i'm liking signet jewellers, kay and jared's, the middle to high end, just reported strong algorithm of success with the top line. >> the inventory issue? after third quarter earnings, we were hearing from a ton of retailers the ratio to forward sales was extremely high. is that an isolated occurrence? what do you see around the stores here? >> you're probably seeing that everywhere. when we talk about the increased promotional enenvironment, it's by-product. you'll hear about that, it will go forward. there's a partial element due to timing. but overall, more inventories isn't a bad thing driving the promos. we don't see that going away anytime soon. >> thank you, folks. happy black friday. >> keep on shopping. >> enjoy your shopping. see you later. >> all right. now, we've got about 38 minutes left to go into the close.

and again, even though we're not seeing huge moves on the indexes, bill, we're still heading potentially for new highs. in fact, the dow would be perhaps the 12th new high this month alone. >> i know. we've been saying it left and right here. we'll get the view on the ground out west, retail-wise. we have a target in los angeles. and a best buy in san jose, california. we're going to get a sense of what the hot items are shaping up to be at those outlets. if you think some of the deals at the mall are a good deal today, wait until cyber monday. it has a lot to do with travel sales. that might be the time to plan the winter vacation. the ceo of priceline north america will join us here in a bit on "closing bell." tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 bring what inspires you tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 out there... in here. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 out there, tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 there are stocks on the move. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 in here, streetsmart edge has tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 chart pattern recognition tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 which shows you which ones are bullish or bearish. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 now, earn 300 commission-free online trades.

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and welcome back. the stocks and shopping. these are the two big events going on today, and they're probably related more than you even realize. we've got it all covered for you today, in fact. >> let's do that. mary thompson at the new york stock exchange on family day there. we all know about the kids around there. we've got sheila at the nasdaq, and josh lipton at a best buy, looking for electronics in san jose, california. and julia boorstin at a target in los angeles. mary, let's start with you. what's driving the market higher? this will be the 13th new high this month, and there are only 20 trading days this month anyway. that's incredible. >> that's right. 13th record close for the dow, it's six in a row if things hold as they are today, bill. we have consumer discretionary,

including the retailers, as well as tech stocks leading the markets higher today. the s&p, of course, also on track for a record high. let's look at the consumer discretionary stocks that are higher. and we've heard a lot about how electronics are one of the hot items. best buy responding to that. gamestop, maker of video games, along with coach and tiffany, which earlier this week reported strong results and raised its forecast for the rest of the year. also strong today, we're seeing strength in the cable stocks. reportedly charter communications has received -- put together the debt financing it needs for its bid for time warner cable, which has also said to be interested in having made comcast take a look at it, according to our david faber. so the cable stocks are higher with the exception of charter. and there are a couple of stocks trading to the downside, one being archer daniels midland. the australian government squashed its purchase of a grain corp. for $2.6 billion, caving in to demands of some farmers, so it's down about 2.5% on that

news. back to you. >> all right, mary, thank you very much. let's go to sheila at the nasdaq. you're getting pretty comfortable above that 4,000 level, aren't you? >> very comfortable. i mean, take a look at the nasdaq composite at 4,070. fresh 13-year high for the index. today, we are at session highs right now, so looking for a very strong close. now, a big part of today's gains has to do with large-cap tech. apple, seeing a nice lift. we've seen this uptrend all week, and we're continuing that today. it is beyond the 550 level, which is one we haven't seen since january. take a look at microsoft and yahoo! as well, showing solid gains. biotech, this has been such a big winner on the nasdaq, hitting yet another record today for the nasdaq biotech index. today seeing nice gains in vertex pharmaceuticals after a positive analyst research note, giving a lift to the entire sector. finally, bill, the last one is for you. i know you don't like malls. i know you're a big online shopper. so take a look at amazon. the stock is also hitting a record high. you know, after today's mall

shopping ends, all of the focus will be on cyber monday, so a big lift for a lot of the online retailers, as well. back to you. >> sheila, thanks. another big winner that we're hearing this morning, potentially, is best buy. the shares are already up more than 200% this year. but josh lipton at a best buy out in california. josh, what can you tell us? >> yeah, kelly, best buy here, the sale actually began last night at 6:00 p.m. you saw big crowds. we've been here all morning, i can tell you you're seeing a steady stream of shoppers. it's actually picking up. the manager of this store, at least saying, this looks like it will be the best black friday he's seen in a while. a lot of the shoppers here, no surprise, they seem to be making a bee line for those discounted flat-screen tvs. >> i have a panasonic 50-inch, and i guess it's about time for upgrade, if i can get a good discount.

>> now, about one-third of those shoppers surveyed by the consumer electronics association said they do plan on buying electronics, but that number could actually be a lot higher. remember, last year 44% of those who went out shopping did purchase electronics, so a lot of interest still in those tech toys. guys, back to you. >> wow. thank you, josh. >> all right. let's go to julia boorstin. julia boorstin at a target in los angeles. what are you finding there, julia? >> well, bill, the shopper activity is really finally starting to pick up this morning, and like the best buy where josh lipton is, the focus here really seems to be on electronics. shoppers are snapping up deals on flat-screen tvs. they're also really interested in tablets, particularly those apple products. there's a deal here at target where if you buy an ipad air, they're giving you a $75 gift card. another category that's particularly hot, video games

like this nintendo 3ds, and people are buying accessories and games for the new consoles. the crowds here last night, over 1,000 people lined up for the store's first-ever 8:00 p.m. thanksgiving opening. the biggest door busters, including a $229 flat-screen tv, and $100 nikon camera, very quickly sold out. one reason it's been a little bit quieter this morning could have to do with target.com's record traffic. the company says that in the wee hours of the morning, sales on target.com were twice what they were last year. also, kelly and bill, it's raining a little bit here, and that could be more incentive to stay home and shop from the couch rather than drive to the mall. back over to you. >> it's true. julia, thanks very much. >> it never rains in southern california. >> yeah, you know a little about that. >> never happen. heading toward the close, the dow, the s&p, both in record territory. we've got about 30 minutes left in the trading session, and for this month. let's face it, it's been another

stellar month for the stock market. the dow up 47 points right now at 16,145. >> and we know december is typically one of the better months in terms of stock performance, so this year making records, and could set some more. up next, we'll look at lands' end. sears is considering a sale or spinoff of that lands' end apparel unit. and up next, the ceo of lands' end will weigh in on whether the brand will be better off without sears. how is that brand doing so far this holiday season? the man with the answers, up with us. also, walmart workers are scheduled to be protesting outside of walmart stores across the country. and that's sort of happening. it turns out many protesters are not walmart workers at all. phil lebeau gets to the bottom of that story when we come back on "closing bell." [ male announcer ] what if a small company

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so at lands' end, today is just the beginning of the holiday shopping season, although yesterday you could consider that as well. they're very much an online presence. so very big for them. >>nd a here to help spur sales, the company is offering free shipping to all customers for purchasing over $50, and now the

company's ceo ed guard har ed g edgar huber joins us. good morning. >> good morning. happy thanksgiving to you. >> and to you. and i'm sure that you, as with all of the retailers, are closely tracking transactions, unit price. what can you tell us about the read as of about noontime here on the east coast, as to how it's going? and what shoppers are responding to? >> well, i just checked my results a couple of minutes ago, and we do have a very, very strong beginning of this long retail shopping weekend. we had very, very strong thanksgiving day, and we also had very strong wednesday, up in the high double digits versus last year. and so far, would he are very happy. business is really good so far. >> but you have such a strong presence online. your catalog business is part of your signature, as well. so put in perspective for us these kinds of days, how important are they when people

can just shop lands' end, really, whenever they want to? >> that's a very strong concentration over this weekend, and it's key to succeed our q4 results. just to give you an idea, cyber monday last year, we took in 188,000 orders in one day, and this is the kind of magnitude we are dealing with. so it's a very important weekend. and we also have some special deals which we offer only during the thanksgiving and cyber monday weekend, which customers cannot get outside of these days, so it helps to drive business in a concentrated way. >> edgar, it's interesting you say that, because black friday, in case people don't know or forget, the origin of the terminology was typically the time of year when retailers would go into the black for the whole year. that was the importance. but as you've indicated, this has really become about a week, about a whole series of days built around that shopping experience, extending to cyber monday. how important is this particular day, or this time of year, to your whole year as a retailer?

>> this whole period represents nearly over 60% of our yearly operating performance, so it's extremely important for us. but funny that you say about cyber monday, because we internally talk about cyber tuesday, because we've seen over the last two, three years, on tuesday, the volume is extremely high. so all of the marketing teams prepare offers for cyber monday and cyber tuesday, and we are starting to talk about a cyber week, actually. >> forgive me, i'm the cynic on this team. for me, cyber monday is just another day. i'm a big online shopper, and i can shop lands' end until, what, the 19th, and still get my stuff online. so have people just been trained to shop on monday because they've heard that it's cyber monday, or why is that such a big day, after all? >> i think you're very much right. i think the people are just framed, because it's a custom that people are following on, it's people following what other

people are doing, and therefore shopping in a concentrated way. and there are some special offers and some special products available only during this time of the year, and the specific day, and not in other parts of the year. >> edgar, we want to talk about the business strategically. sears, it said, will spin you guys off. a lot of people describe you as among the most valuable assets that sears has. do you regret any of your time as part of that company and/or look forward to an independent future? >> it's really difficult from a timing point of view for me to make any comments about this. we have a very, very constructive and good partnership with sears. we have a great retail relationship with sears. and we are focusing to develop plans into the future, so internation internationally, in a strong way, and just to develop it to the potential that we have. i think the timing is difficult to make any comments, but overall, the situation is very positive for us and very constructive. >> i mean, we'll say for you

what you can't say. sears needed you more than you needed sears. so won't you be better off as an independent company without the issues facing sears overall right now? >> and, you know, we do very much operate as a vertical business already for quite sometime. you have a constructive relationship with sears. we have 300 shops in sears locations, retail locations, which probably would have been difficult for us to obtain such prime locations, and it's driving up business in independent and vertical way for quite sometime already. >> all right. and lands' end up on this black friday season, i guess we should call it. we'll see if the retailers can match that. thank you so much for joining us, edgar huber, the ceo of lands' end. still some greens here on the black friday. the dow and s&p in record territory, and the nasdaq is comfortably above 4,000 right

now. coming up next, we've sent two of the intrepid cnbc producers here at short hills to take the pulse of black friday. they'll fight through the crowd to get back to the set to tell us what is going on out there. next, we'll also get the answer to the question everyone wants to know -- what is the current weight at the cheesecake factory? >> i mean, if they went, you know, one of our producers literally made a reservation, we've got the vibrating thing that tells us when our seat is available, and it hasn't vibrated yet. so we're going to look for that. after the bell, if black friday is not your favorite d day -- [ laughter ] -- then give cyber monday a try. priceline.com is one of the many e-sites offering deals and the ceo of priceline north america tells us what he has planned three days hence. stay with us on "closing bell."

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we're back on again. >> yes, we are. things may seem calm for those of you in the stores, but it looks as though there might be something going on beneath the surface. >> yes, apparently, we're in an isolated part of the mall at short hills, but we sent two of the producers out there to see where the traffic was. we have cris and brie, and they

clean up good when we put makeup on them. you made the reservation at cheese cake factory. >> yes, we are on the list. i have our pager. right now, it looks about 20 minutes, so it's not terribly long, but they said it will bump up. a long wait. >> all right. so we'll go. kris, what are you finding out in the mall? how's the foot traffic? >> the lines are incredible at starbucks. more people there than anywhere else, but the gap, ann taylor, express, there's a lot of foot traffic here today. to get some of the good -- the deals that you have to get to before noon, before 1:00, the door busters. >> it was said that 50% may be the magic number to kind of really grab people's attention and get them in the stores. bill and i walked around earlier, and we saw 20%, 40%. did any signage? >> he ya, gap today, all day, 50% off any item. and buy three items, get one three. >> vineyard vines.

>> yes. >> sounds like jos. a. bank is here. >> yes, indeed. you're a new mom. what are you finding -- i hear gap kids is -- >> yeah, the baby gap. a huge line at baby gap, which made me nervous, because i thought, oh, no, everything will be bought up before i have a chance. but also, the other spot was the outlet store. no sales, but if you buy certain items, you get a gift card, $50, $150. so, you know, when there's really never any breaks at the apple store, that's certainly some place to stop by. >> very good, guys. >> jumping off that, the verizon store -- >> yes. >> -- two-year contract, free tablet. >> you know, we saw that, we saw the big lines at the verizon. >> the question is, how much inventory they have, because they leave the sign up, even though three of them in stock. so we'll have to do recon. >> good job, guys. we'll see you later. kris and bree. >> we want to talk some of the shoppers here. >> david menlo of ipo financial, what the heck are you doing here? >> well, i only go where the boss tells me to go. >> yeah, yeah. >> my wife ellen said if you want to go to a place with

confidence in your shopping, short hills mall is it. >> would you ordinarily go shopping on black friday? >> i wouldn't go shopping normally during any day during the week. but this is the place to go, and certainly the numbers are -- >> what are you finding out there? >> i'm thrilled to be here. yesterday was all about cooking. today is all about shopping. and he's the bank. so he's the bank. so he has to come with -- >> yes, but you're the brains, and i want to know, you have experience on this front. >> we do. >> how does today differ from past black fridays in your experience? >> we're ready. we're ready to hit all of the stores and do all of our shopping. >> what are you buying? what are you looking for? >> some hanukkah gifts, christmas gifts, and gifts for me. >> and are you finding good deals? >> absolutely. absolutely. >> i think economically, you know, on the bigger picture here, everybody has a little -- a greater sense of calm, that they're in the right place, everything is starting to feel a little bit better for them and their pockets. so there's a -- >> it looks like you brought the whole gang. >> are you with them?

>> what are you shopping for today? >> anything and everything. >> are you finding good bargains? >> so far. 50% off. >> like, in what? clothing, electronics? >> clothing. >> yeah? >> yeah. what are the hot retailers? >> we went to loft, express, banana republic, they had really long lines. we got here at 8:00 a.m. >> if you go buy the old -- if you go buy the old bag theory, you're looking for shoppers with full bags, we've got some shoppers with full bags right here. >> we do. >> how can you lose, that's for sure. thank you for joining us. >> all: thank you. >> happy shopping. >> see you around there. we'll take a break here on "closing bell," and we'll continue with more -- actually, we'll come back with a new countdown, because we'll see if the market can close -- this will be the 13th record high for the markets on -- >> if we close today, just for the month, bill. we've had a couple dozen of them so far this year. the nasdaq's up over 30%. half of the s&p 500 is up more than 30%. the numbers are just astonish g astonishing, whether we're talking about stocks or shopping, we'll do more of both

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joining us from the floor of the new york stock exchange, we have mary thompson and our friend warren meyers, among other friends there on this family day, right, guys? >> you are with the smart money right here, bill. we're with the smart money. >> exactly. this is definitely our trading future here. are they buying or? >> are they buying or selling, warren. >> they've been buying although lightening up going into the bell. that's the mood we're getting today. >> it looks as we go into the close we've seen something similar we've seen throughout the week, a pullback in the dow and s&p 500. we have seen a lot of market on sell orders going into the close throughout the week and that's tended to take the market out a little bit which is exactly what we've seen. we've lost about 50 points in the dow in about the last five minutes or so. it is this sixth session streak of record closers for the dow looks to be in jeopardy. >> warren, what does that mean?

going into what is traditionally a strong month for the markets here, we had 12 record closing highs just in the month of november. should we make anything of today? especially since this is a holiday trading day? >> i don't think you could. it's unusual to have the shortened day on the last day of the month and that might be impacting what we're seeing today a little bit. if we sell off a little into the bell as any indication it's going to weaken going for the rest of the year here. the uptrend is still underneath this market and still going to be there. >> warren, though, this is significant. we've gone from being up 50 points on the dow to a sharp turn about, negative on that index. is there any scuttlebutt around the floor? what are the kids saying? any idea why we had a sudden sell-off? >> what i think is going on, there's heavy market on close sell orders that came into the market, word that got out, people started lighting up their

positions. this move at the end of the day is a little exaggerated because we have a shortened day and the volume is lighter than normal. >> keep in mind the trend -- >> at the same time you could just as easily say this is window dressing and if anything, we would be closing the month with an upside. >> it could be. i think what you have to consider is we've had a very strong month of november. to take any great read from what we're seeing in the last couple minutes of a trade here on a shortened trading day would be too much. next week as we look ahead to that historically is a strong week. we have a lot of important economic data and november in general is the third straight month of gains for all three of the major indices, so a 21-point decline for the dow, 50-point or 70-point swing at the end of the day again take it with a grain of salt. shortened trading day, light volume, et cetera. we want to point out the market on close orders, fairly light volume, the market tends to

react more aggressively. >> the inballoon got published to the world at 12:45 and when you saw the market really sell off. looks like we're leveling out a little bit. again, it's bigger impact than we normally would have because of the shortened holiday day. >> perhaps there are people who are having locked in the performance for the last 11 months we keep discussing, are ready to just take their money off the table and take a holiday. >> why not. >> we're going to let you go. have your friends wave to the cameras as we say good-bye. >> everyone wave to everyone. >> a lot of them like disney. looking to buy a stock, they like disney. that's what they told me. this young lady i asked her what would you do if you had $100? infie i would save it. she's going to be the millionaire right here. >> don't come to the mall. >> she's going to save it. >> bye-bye. >> that's great. all right. we're going to take a break and

come back with the closing countdown. losing altitude here. doesn't look like we'll get the record highs today. >> by the way, after the bell, microsoft's xbox one has had a long road before it winds up in your store. coming up, courtney reagan takes you on the long, strange trip of making an xbox one. plus she'll give us another real-time report of what's happening at the mall in ohio where she's been stationed. you're watching cnbc first in business worldwide. ♪ ♪ you get your coffee here. you get your hair cut here. you find that certain thing you were looking for here, but actually you get so much more. when you shop at these small local businesses, you support all the things that make your community great. the money you spend here, stays here. in this place you call your neighborhood. tomorrow is small business saturday. get out and shop small.

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all right. we're heading toward the close here and it's a squeaker. look like we're back positive again. we were down 20 points just a moment ago on the dow jones industrial average. but now it's starting to come back. we're in green territory. any positive close for the dow or s&p will be a record once again. joining us here as we close out this short holiday trading day is matt chesslock from virtual financial on the floor of the new york stock exchange. matt, this is going to be a squeaker here. what are you seeing in the order flow here? what's going on? >> there was a sell side, you know, prevalence to start this 12:45 move. we want to close higher.

there's a mood for that. we're seeing it from the retail side, seeing it from institutional side. we're going to try to close higher. >> well, we may try to close higher, matt, but i mean, what do you get in terms of the sense as to why people are selling now? and again, the money people might be putting to work in the market in december are you hearing any talk about that as well? >> yeah. you know, i think we're not going to really worry about so much today. we are going to look for retail sales as we approach monday. people will decide whether they will put money to work over the last month. there's no reason to think the s&p will create going over the last month. maybe as we get into the new year how to reallocate money but it's not going to be over the next month. people will enjoy the gains they had and the holidays we're now in the middle of. >> you know, it's the broad averages that are struggling, the s&p is struggling but the nasdaq is doing fine. technology is still hanging in there at this point, matt? >> we still have the leaders out of the momentum stocks that have

taken us higher. seeing microsoft higher, apple higher, tesla higher. these are stocks that have taken the index higher. as far as the dow it's not much of a talk. retail will be the focus as we go forward as i said. when you start getting into cyber monday and starting to see analyze or overanalyze the numbers from today and over the weekend that's what could cause a little angst. i can't imagine it's going to spark any kind of major sell-off. >> who are your friends there? anybody you know? >> i have a couple of mine own, avery and carlin and some kids joining in here. it's a good day down here. >> see what dad does for a living finally. >> yeah. you're teaching them the power of compounding interest, matt? >> i can't teach them anything like that but hopefully they can see this, you know, cheer on this market higher and all say hello to mom on tv. >> all right. very good. thank you, matt. happy black friday, happy thanksgiving, have a good weekend. >> thank you.

you too. >> okay. . very good. we're going to go out looks like -- we're going to have to wait here in the last few seconds. we're down about six, seven points on the dow industrials as we close out what has been a strong month for the stock market in november. stay tuned now for the second hour of the "closing bell" from the short hills mall in new jersey. it's black friday for wault, we have red arrows on wault. from the mall at short hills in new jersey. >> that's right. here's how we're finishing on wall street. we're here keeping an eye on the day. back at the new york stock exchange we went seeing the dow up to giving that up sharply into the finish and we're still

looking at the numbers tallying in. it looks as though we'll be down by about 15 points on the dow jones industrial average. so just off all-time highs. the s&p 500 giving up one or two points. the nasdaq, though, managing to hang on and adding 15 points it to the close today. >> all right. let's bring in our packanel rig now. look who we found at the mall, david from morgan stanley wealth management, you are way overdressed for a shopper on black friday my friend. great to see you. also with us, cnbc contributors greg and michael. we have todd from landco capital. guys, happy friday and good to see you all. >> happy friday. >> david, what do you make of the market? we had 12 record closing highs for the dow and the s&p just in the month of november itself. >> i think a big story this year is not only the fact that market is up 26, 27% but how it's done it. you only had two very small corrections bill. a 1.5% which was the bernanke

tapering tightening thing in june and 3%, 3.5% in august which was the syria chemical weapons attack. that's part of how it's dup it. secondly, the bank, transportation stocks and russell 2,000, small and mid cap stocks, all of those have outperformed up over 35%. and here at the short mall at short hills, new york stock exchange of shopping, nordstrom, you got macy's, you got bloomingdale's, you got sachs and neiman, the big five here. >> all right here. >> 160 shop, 1980 it was started. >> not a lot of doorbusters at this mall. >> no. >> here's one interesting thing as we look into 2014 we're hearing, it's that on the equities side a lot of the stock analysts are saying in terms of 2014 it's going to be an okay year in the range of 10% gains but the econ guys are saying this might be the year we see better growth? >> you know, that's actually pretty classic. if we're seeing better growth that's a signal for the fed to

begin the long-awaited tapering. there's a long history of the years when the fed moves from an easy to less easy posture. difficult years for the stock market. classic example is 1994, when the fed began to tighten after two or three years of staying at around 2 or 3% and rough year for the s&p 500. basically closed the year flat. great year for the economy. and that laid the groundwork for a very positive, solid, long, not inflationary recovery. i'm not predicting that's what's going to happen here but if, in fact, the signs of economic strength persist i expect we'll get tapering in the next few months. that will be a little choppy period for the stock market. >> greg, it's michael farr. if we get -- i'm sorry, bill, but if we get that tapering, i've been hearing there's so much cash on the sidelines, so much liquidity in the system, getting a plan out of the fed that might be tapering might not have the same result that the fed tightening has had in the past that we nigmight have a br

pullback but markets with a plan and this much cash could continue to rally higher. make sense? >> i think it's going to be a combination of both that, the fundamentals and whether we squeezed out a lot of leverage position in place nine months ago. i mean if you recall when bernanke started to talk about tapering in may it began a long bear market in the bond market. we moved from like i think 1.8 to 2.8% on the long bond. the thing i find most encouraging for the last few weeks, months if you will, is that with people once again beginning to price in tapering, the long bond has again moved up to 2.8% and yet the equity market is making new highs. that tell me as far as the market is concerned the immaculate conception where you both have bond yields going up but prospective profit growth gives you a decent year. >> the right time of year for immaculate conception anyway. >> that's right.

>> todd -- farr, you're doing a good job hosting the show. >> thank you very much. >> you're in a mall for good sakes. i've got a studio. >> i know. i have no idea what i'm doing in a mall on a black friday. todd, we are focusing on retailers right now and trying to get a sense of how we're going to look as we close out the fourth quarter this year. what's your expectation for the stock market as it pertain tas to the consumer right now? >> well, look, stocks are going to continue to go up. i love this tapering argument but where's the evidence we're going to be seeing tapering. you still have a very slow gdp right, a labor picture that remains fragging. i don't see where the evidence to support any type of tapering. regarding the consumer, though, 33 million americans went out shopping yesterday. they got turkey on rye at the local deli, went to the mall and shopping. the debt to income ratio is widening right now. you have americans that are

taking on more debt, yet they're going out and buying more big screen tvs. that's wonderful news, but it's bad for the long-term prognosis for the u.s. economy and, therefore, the fed has to stay intact right now. >> i have to make a point here, though. you're absolutely right. the latest numbers show people are starting to add more debt but it's a good thing not a bad thing. the story of the last ten years people took on way too much debt to buy houses that weren't worth what they thought they were, that began to turn in 2006 when household debt peaked around 135% of disposable income. we're now down to around 110%. we've got a long way to correcting that overshoot. we went too far. we're starting i think back to the positive thing people are willing to take more debt on. >> no. >> you're kidding. are you kidding me? it's revolving debt. >> everybody want to get in on that conversation but i want to bring up something that has been another feature of this month. i'm going to bring in larry mcdonald on this. larry, it's bitcoin. we started the month with

bitcoin at $210. now today i hear it hit $1200. how much more air does this bubble have in it before it pops, do you think? >> well, with bitcoin you're going to see massive moves up and down as we saw earlier this year. but the one thing is, keep in mind, the amount of bitcoin outstanding relative to say gold or other assets, is still very, very small, so you can have violent moves in the price because i think there's only like 8 or $9 billion of bitcoin in the world outstanding relative to gold's $7.6 trillion. you have to take it with a grain of salt, bill. >> well, for anyone who was saying that bitcoin could be the new gold, we're not far from actually that intersection where bitcoin is pricier than gold because that's another thing, larry, just how poorly gold has traded this month. in fact, for the last three months. and anyone who's betting on a rebound now is really sticking their neck out there. where do you think it's going next year?

>> i love gold for the first quarter, because i think you have to look at a couple things. the s&p is up 27, 28%, so people are scouring their accounts, their accountants are calling them, the accountants telling investors sell your losers in december, sell your losers in november, because you're going to need to sell those losers to offset the gains. so that creates a dynamic where at least for the gold miners and say some of the coal names, after january 1st, honestly, who's left to sell these names? who is left? they have to sell them in the next 30 days. >> larry, let me ask you a question -- >> in terms of looking where gold is going isn't it important to look beyond the ney, india and china the biggest buyers of gold and one of the pushers behind gold the inflation those countries he specially india has hand. don't you want to watch behavior

trendses to get a sense of whether that cushion of support will still be there? >> yes. that's a great point. >> they can buy gold now or bitcoin now. >> every month, kelly, every month over the last 12 months, if you track the amount of gold that's coming from say hong kong into china, that number has accelerated every month for the last 12 months and on average over the last six months up 60%. you're seeing a lot of money move into mainland china and so that's, i think, going to help gold heading into the new year. >> guys, there's no reason to continue to own gold though. >> the big friend of gold, the big friend of gold, the last 12 years has been the dollar going down and interest rates going down and both of those have stopped. gold's two friends for the moment have abandoned it. we've loved it since 2003. china, india demand scrap supply, mining supply, forget

it. interest rates and the dollar will call the tone for gold. >> all right. >> i agree. >> thank you all for your questions. even greg getting in the act now. i guess we have a new tv show cnbc staring michael farr and greg coming your way soon in 2014. >> happy black friday, guys. >> see you later. >> now there's definitely something to be thankful for this year, it has been an incredible month for stocks. dominic chu has the numbers for us putting a smile on people's faces. >> putting a smile on mine too. if you are long in this market any way, shape, or form, retirement or college savings fund you're liking november and this year. so far november let's take you to the big stats. overall the three major indices have posted very healthy gains for november. the dow up about 4%. the s&p up nearly 3% and the nasdaq up nearly 4% as well. it's been a good month and remember, when the first ten months of the year are this positive, usually we finish out the gains for the s&p 500 for

the rest of the year. that's big. also, taking a look at what's happening with the big retail names in the s&p 500. this company or this chart, this index, shows you just how much over the last month up 2% there, over again that time period and if you -- you guys are at mall. we wanted to talk about standout retail companies out there. this is a company called -- but they're an important part of the retail landscape this time of year because this company up 308% over the past two years up massively now, is the company behind juicy couture, lucky brand jeans and kate spade. those three brands fall under fifth and pacific and from a stock performance perspective this is a big deal too because over the holiday season, it's interesting, pacific on the s&p 500 up again around 4% and during the black friday shopping season, guys, this is great,

it's up about 6% on average the last three black friday to year-end seasons. that's pretty big. standouts this time black friday these times of the year. back to you guys. >> well, send us any requests while we're here, we'll pick something up for you from new jersey. >> my list is growing. >> jeans. >> okay. >> okay. >> you do, i've noticed that. we'll talk to more shoppers here. the most important shopper at this mall. how are you? >> good. >> have you seen santa yet? >> no. >> he's right -- if you keep going down the mall you'll see santa. did you get any doorbuster sales this morning? yeah. what did you buy? did you buy something? >> what did he buy? >> he hasn't bought anything yet. we just got here. it's really full.

>> what took you so long? they were open at 6:30 this morning. >> little slow this morning. we're going to make up for it. >> are you seeing any sales yet. >> yeah. definitely. and neiman marcus is where we parked and came in and jumps out at you. >> how is the parking lot? wasn't too bad when i got in? >> we got lucky. it's full but somebody pulled out as we were pulling in. >> what are you shopping for today? >> i'm shopping for clothes and cosmetics and shoes. >> you know i look around and don't see a lot of shopping bags. this is what's interesting. everyone is here. a couple back here. blooming dales. >> i'm not sheer shopping. i'm here carrying for my wife. >> they're here and i'm a mule. >> i hear that. you've got a bag. >> i did, yes. >> did you get good bargains. >> we got a free gift. >> what's the free gift today? >> weekender bag. >> nice. leopard and everything. >> yes. >> very in. >> yes. >> and you get to carry that. >> i already did my shopping this morning. >> what did you get?

>> i went to baby's r us for a christmas present. >> yes. >> early morning deals last night. >> and 50% off or more. >> more than 50. >> not bad. >> very good. thank you all for joining us today here at the mall. >> you're creating the next generation of shoppers, i see. santa is right down there. you'll find him. much more ahead on the special black friday edition of "closing bell" right after this. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 searching for trade ideas that spark your curiosity tdd# 1-800-345-2550 can take you in many directions. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 you read this. watch that. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 you look for what's next. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 at schwab, we can help turn inspiration into action tdd# 1-800-345-2550 boost your trading iq with the help of tdd# 1-800-345-2550 our live online workshops tdd# 1-800-345-2550 like identifying market trends. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 now, earn 300 commission-free online trades. call 1-888-628-2419 or go to schwab.com/trading to learn how. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 sharpen your instincts with market insight from schwab tdd# 1-800-345-2550 experts like liz ann sonders and randy frederick.

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the mall on black friday. ♪ take a look at the five and ten". >> back at the short hills mall on black friday. no idea what i'm doing here but we're hearing it's about clothing and electronics so far. >> for teens might have to be one or the other and something to watch as we tally just how good a season this has been. >> so far the xbox one from microsoft, they've sold 1 million consoles since the -- they started seeing them last week. courtney reagan out there in the middle of the mall in ohio. dayton, ohio, give us an update

on what that's all about. ? >> yeah. that's right, bill. i really have been all over the place. i got to tell you a lot of focus on seeing those xbox ones and products like that fly off the shelves but ever wonder what it took to get those products on the shelves? we got a very rare look inside the walmart distribution chain last week during the busiest week of the year. here's a look at what we saw. >> after being manufactured in china, we first meet our xbox at this walmart distribution center in pennsylvania. upon arrival associate amy unloads the xbox one and delivers the cargo to the unpacking area where it gets put on a conveyor belt. there are 17 miles of conveyor belts moving 18,000 cases per hour. it's the busiest week of the year for walmart logistics. this distribution center is in charge of getting the right products and quantities to the 97 stores it services in four states, just in time for the black friday weekend.

this is mostly automated, is that right? >> most of it is automated and our system will tell which lines can go and which lines can stop. >> reporter: now that our xbox is on the conveyor system, it gets directed to its predetermined lane taking laps above the 1.2 million square feet of floor space below a journey every black friday product must follow. >> here comes our xbox. >> reporter: after 2 1/2 hours of loading the truck bound for new jersey is ready to hit the highway. gene drives for another two hours to deliver the merchandise to the store. a team has unloaded one trailer one ours pulls up the, xbox and other black friday specials moved from the trailer to a secret holding area so secret not even our cameras are allowed inside. the merchandise stays there until moments before the deals are available to shoppers at 6:00 p.m. on thanksgiving day.

and guys, we know that we've seen pretty heavy traffic at walmart stores across the country so far this black friday weekend. we'll have to wait and see if it was the xboxs flying off the shelves or pajamas or tra s whit i saw a lot of when i was there. >> thanks very much. bill, it's interesting, in the -- i was looking at walmart's press release about how its black friday went. they did list the xbox before the ps 4. >> how did they know how their black friday went. they issued that at 6:30 this morning. >> perhaps more the gray thursday they were trying to summarize for people saying it was a great up with for them. actually, speaking of tracking the trends, let's get some numbers if we can. joining us is jay henderson, global strategy director for ibm smart commerce. thank you for joining us. happy thanksgiving, thanksgivukkah, whatever may be the case here. what can you tell us? at 9:00 and now at noon you guys

are able to give an update on the statistics, is that right? >> that's right. we've seen really strong performance for on-line retailers this holiday shopping season. you know, it really started with the backdrop of there being six fewer shopping days this year, so a lot of retailers were very anxious, started rolling out deals last weekend, but we saw double digit growth, 19% growth yesterday on thanksgiving day for on-line sales. and then so far today, for black friday, we're seeing about 7% growth. and that's pretty typical for this time of day. we should see a big surge later on in the evening as people get home and we'll hopefully see about the same level of growth for black friday. >> are you just tracking volume, or can you break it out on what they're buying, particular sectors, particular stores? where are they going to shop on-line so far? >> well, we're tracking a lot of different metrics. we're tracking overall sales

growth as well as growth in various segments of the retail industry. so we're seeing really strong growth being posted by department stores, by holiday, you know, all the holiday promotions they've been running, home goods, jewelry, and, of course, electronics. >> $127 looks as though that's the average order value. what can you tell us about that figure? >> sure. well we're seeing the average order value down just slightly year over year. and basically the reason for that is, retailers have been discounting a little bit more than they have in years past. i think they're eager to make sure on-line sales are growing which they are, so the overall numbers are growing. average order value down slightly. i think that means consumers are getting really good deals in the stores. >> jay henderson of ibm, thank you. appreciate some updates of how they're doing on-line. >> thanks guys. >> and you insist you're not shopping on-line on monday

either? >> why do i need to. >> are wyou a guy that knows its december 13th is the best day to get the sales. >> i shop when i need something and go on-line and look when it will be arriving and fit in my schedule i buy it. all of this nonsense of cyber monday, whatever. but anyway we are here at the mall but want to get an update on the traffic at this particular high-end mall in short hills, new jersey. we have our producers bree and kristen to give us an update. has the cheesecake factory called? is our table ready? >> right now it's about a 45-minute wait. >> 45-minute wait. >> not yet, bill. >> 20 minutes when we started out. >> so the traffic has picked up. >> the traffic has increased. even looking around. >> it's mobbed. people are everywhere now. earlier in the day there were a few people but now it has picked up. >> and i think a sign you know people are actually shopping? >> i mean you look around and you see people have bags.

they're not just coming to browse. >> i don't know. i feel like i'm not seeing a lot of bags. i see a lot of people. i'm looking around, they're milling about and looking around, are we seeing a lot of shopping bags. >> i'm seeing some bags. >> i really do, especially from your express, gap, j. crew. you're not going to find the prada put their shoes at 50% off. >> no. they're looking for the discounted apparel. >> where you can find the disaccounted apparel. >> earlier we were in the macy's shoe department. they had a deejay, bill. >> a deejay? >> yes. >> in the shoe department. the place was pumping. >> now we know where we're going after this interview. >> maybe you are. >> dragging bill. >> and movies we should point out, movies will be hot this weekend. "frozen" opening this weekend, expecting to do about $90 million. "hunger games" which broke records last weekend at about $165 million. they're expected to do another $100 million just this weekend. >> and we were asking about the cheesecake factory, the

starbucks has been packed and you have to wonder about the halo effect from the way people are turning out. >> a lot of people that we've talked to who are home for, you know, home from college so, you know, they're home for the loening weekend with their families, gives everybody an opportunity to get out and do something together. >> exactly. get that table, i'm hungry. see you later. thanks for joining us. >> thank you. forget about the black friday shopping deals. >> yes. the travel industry is participating too and it's looking up. some big promotions are also in store for cyber monday. priceline.com's north american ceo will be up next with the best deals that you can expect. you won't want to miss it. stay with us. ya know, with new fedex one rate you can fill that box and pay one flat rate. how naughty was he? oh boy... [ male announcer ] fedex one rate. simple, flat rate shipping with the reliability of fedex.

you get your coffee here. you get your hair cut here. you find that certain thing you were looking for here, but actually you get so much more. when you shop at these small local businesses, you support all the things that make your community great. the money you spend here, stays here. in this place you call your neighborhood. tomorrow is small business saturday. get out and shop small.

yep. got all the cozies. [ grandma ] with new fedex one rate, i could fill a box and ship it for one flat rate. so i knit until it was full. you'd be crazy not to. is that nana? [ male announcer ] fedex one rate. simple, flat rate shipping with the reliability of fedex. welcome back to the "closing bell." eye catching holiday deals aren't just for retailers. there are loads of travel specials now part of black friday. >> joining us is christopher, priceline.com's north american ceo. he joins us from stanford, connecticut, to help you find the best bargains and travel the holiday travel trends here. thanks for joining us. happy friday. you guys have a sale going on on monday on cyber monday. you do have some sort of a promotion that day. why? >> well, just it's a great time that customers come on-line and

start thinking about booking vacations for next year, so we have our cyber monday sale. we're offering an additional 10% off our already great deals through our new hotel express deal product. >> what's interesting about that, chris, is that for retailers they typically had to rely on this kind of promotion in order to make their numbers for the year. for priceline you guys haven't had -- it hasn't been the real issue. is this not at the risk of potentially hurting your margins if you jump into the fray here? >> well, it's, you know, we have a very good margins as you know in the business, so while we are offering a little additional discount we have great savings year-round and the savings in our cyber monday sale are an opportunity to add again, another 10% off hotel stays two days or more on top of our already great savings with express deals. >> give us an idea. what's one of the best bargains you have seen travel wise for the holiday season?

what's out there, what's available? >> the one thing that i've seen that really stands out is cancun. great demand and great pricing for flights to cancun, but we're seeing a big jump in demand in hotels. i think that's driven by some of the great deals that are out there. i'll give you an example. in our express deals we have a four-star hotel offering prices of approximately 70% off of their normal price. >> wow. our panel is still with us from earlier. bring them in here, todd, priceline.com has been one of the best performing stocks. it's one of the most expensive stocks in history just on a nominal basis here. when you hear about the promotions that they're involved with on a cyber monday, what's your reaction? >> i love it. look, you have to look at the travel and leisure index. we've seen this year has been performing lights out great but you look at these hotel rates. daily average rate has been increasing steadily all year long and here we are in the holiday season, don't forget what's coming up in february,

guys. new york city, the super bowl. i'm going to ge priceline and our guess is probably going to be able to validate this, put together some nice packages for super bowl fans traveling to the tri-state region. >> yeah. >> what is the best super bowl package right now, chris? >> i can't tell you a specific package but i can tell you in spite of obviously a lot of demand we have great deals and one of the tips that i can tell travelers is, look to the surrounding areas. maybe not in new york city itself to try to get the best deal given all the demand that will be coming in at that time. >> chris, i have a question for you -- >> david -- >> sorry. can i go ahead here? >> hang on greg. let me ask the questions for a second. >> got it. >> i'm igds kidding. i'm kidding. david, the stocks are up 60% this year. this has been a stellar year and now you have american and u.s. airways getting ready to merge. would you buy airlines here. >> i think you can look elsewhere in the transportation sector, look at the rails, okay, which continue to haul the energy.

they've moved up a lot and over the last 12 months as you know, they're up 90%. priceline is up 95% over the last 12 months. it sells for 35 times earnings as kelly just said and it's got a $60 billion market cap. i just wonder how chris, what's going to drive the stock forward? i would love to know from chris what's going to drive the stock? what are the catalysts he sees moving the stock ahead from here after this great performance that you put on. it's phenomenal. >> we don't worry much about the stock price at priceline. we try to stay focused on consumers. i find over time if you focus on having great deals, great products for consumers and easy to use experience across both the desk top and tablets and smartphones you'll do fine. >> bill? >> i mean if i'm going to -- if i have a $1200 stock i'm not going to worry about it either. greg, your question. >> chris, can you give us a sense of what the overall winter vacation booking schedule looks like versus last year?

what kind of growth are you looking at and does that tell us anything about the underlying mood of the consumer? >> i can't talk about our forward numbers. we posted 17% growth in the u.s. in the last quarter and our guidance is out there for the fourth quarter. what i can tell you if you look at the market overall, demand must be good because the airlines are posting record load factors, the pricing is up 3 to 5% year on year and that's generally true in hotels as well so in spite of prices being up, i see the demand still as being very robust. >> bill, it's michael. i think we're getting -- >> yeah. >> i think we're getting at a really important point here and that greg was sort of making it earlier. at a price consumers are coming in at a price on black friday, at a price for priceline, at a certain discount on cyber monday, we're seeing the consumers step up, feel a little more confident in spite of the consumer confidence numbers which have been low.

they're up and spending. we're also seeing that their savings rate is starting to trickle back and to me, this is really potentially very dangerous. because we've seen a shift of debt, of leverage, from the consumer and from corporations to the government. we all over levered. the government took it on and the consumer and corporations and the private sector have delevered now. what if we've made that big shift so that the consumer can now kind of get healthy and get some feet under them again, except he's still addicted to this spending and with the right enticements is going to reliever after the government's levered. >> that's a question for 2014, michael. >> all right. >> i mean this is really important. >> we're out of time. >> exactly. >> no. it absolutely is. we have to leave it there and thank chris for joining us with insight on the travel industry and to all of the panelists as well. as promised we'll get into that shortly. first we want to know, should

today actually be called black eye friday instead? check out this video. this is an ugly scene at a walmart store in north carolina. it actually happened not today but on thanksgiving which somehow seems to make it worse. >> yeah. something wrong about that happening on thanksgiving. anyway, more on that plus walmart has a different kind of fight on its hand. phil lebeau at a walmart worker protest. one problem, the walmart workers didn't really show up as part of the protests. a live report on that still ahead. that's mine. ♪ that's mine. ♪ that's mine. ♪ come on, kyle. ♪ [ horn honks ] that's mine...kyle. [ male announcer ] revenge is best served with 272 horses. now get the best offers of the season. current lessees with an expiring lease get this 2014 ats for around $299 a month. ♪

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there were protests scheduled outside walmart stores across the country but the funny thing is, there are not a whole lot of walmart workers among the protesters as scheduled. so what gives with that? phil lebeau is at a walmart in chicago. what's the story, phil? >> bill, a few protesters actually were walmart employees. it's quiet at this walmart on the north side of chicago but take a look at scene about an hour and a half ago. there were 75 protesters out in front of this walmart neighborhood market. and a dozen of them blocked off the street in front of the store. the police warned them to move. they didn't. they arrested ten of the protesters. two of them walmart employees. here's what one had to say as he

was being led away by the police. >> i know i'm going to get retaliated tonight when i come in, but it doesn't matter. i'm 45 years old. and like i said, if everyone else had a living wage in chicago we need one too. we fight with everyone from cta to chicago police and fire departments, when they needed they raises they got them. we stood with them. we would love for them to stand with pus. this is working. it's not for me, it's for my workers. >> we reached out to walmart and walmart says, it does not retaliate. in fact, no associate has been retaliated against for raising concerns nor will they be. when associates have concerns, we listen to them because that's how we get better as a company. if an associate does believe they've been retaliated we'd like to know about it, look into it and take appropriate action if necessary. as you take a look at shares of walmart over the last year, keep in mind this is all about people

protesting the min mum wage walmart pays employees. these 1500 protests around the country, they say that the minimum wage at walmart is $8.81 an hour. they think it should be at least $12.50 an hour. factor that out a year, it comes out to $25,000 per worker. no more protests at this location in chicago. they had action earlier today and a few of those protesters were walmart xwrees. -- employees. >> phil, thanks very much. let's bring in our panel here and greg, i want to ask you, i mean if the pressure has been on walmart for years to either raise the pay for their employees or, god forbid for walmart, unionize. what would happen if that were to happen to the largest retailer in the land, do you think? >> well, you know, economists will go back and forth on this issue probably until economics ceases to be a profession. those who say if you raise the

minimum wage you make it harder to hire low skilled entry level workers. and those that say companies will pass the prices to their customers. case of walmart it would be a little both. walmart is such a giant leader in all its market segments it probably has the ability to lead other companies and stores in the same direction. the more interesting question is from a political point of view, who's got the leverage? we saw this unfold here in the washington, d.c., area over the last year. where after many years of negotiation, the city managed to persuade walmart to come into the district of columbia, but then, when the council talked about raising the minimum wage to over $12 walmart threatened to pull out and eventually the city backed down. so i think a lot of these decisions are going to revolve less around the economics and more around who has the political leverage. >> just in a word, todd, are you long or short walmart here? >> i'm long walmart. here's why. because their margins are wide. if you want to lift that hourly rate, look at prices per kt

products they're going to go higher and how will that impact the american consumer. everybody wants to make more money, absolutely. i completely understand. how do you actually quantify a 50% raise per hour because you're stocking shelves. i'm not trying to diminish the value of the employee there, but again, walmart has a fiduciary responsibility to its shareholders. i hope they don't cave and shouldn't. if you don't like the job there, go and find another one. >> all right. thanks, guys. >> profit -- >> appreciate that. i think there's something wrong when there's an advertisement for walmart, having a food drive for their own employees. i don't know. strikes me as wrong. anyway, here's what happened at this walmart in north carolina. you saw the video. i haven't seen this. >> take a look at this. this was on thanksgiving. we're not sure what exactly caused it. what you're seeing there, appears to be a fight over a television. now we've seen it in the past this time of year, of course,

there are people that haven been tragically trampled trying to get the black friday door buster deals in the past. in a press release it talked about its strong numbers. walmart described this as one of its safest seasons yet. but it wasn't without incident, bill. >> we hope it's an isolated incident, that's for sure. >> forget about shopping deals on-line. coming up, we'll tell you what's on the hot list on cnbc.com right now. >> stick around. that's coming up next. "closing bell" continues right after this. [ music transitions to rock ] make it happen with the all-new fidelity active trader pro. it's one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. get 200 free trades when you open an account. yep. got all the cozies. [ grandma ] with new fedex one rate,

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welcome back. if you're curious which stories are hot and happening op cnbc.com well -- >> let's check in with alan, cnbc.com's managing editor with today's hot list. >> hi, kelly, bill. well, we have an old favorite up right now, mark faber, did an interview on "squawk box" this morning, we wrote it up, put it on the web and he's always a big pull for our audience right now. he's getting about 40 clicks a minute. people are eating up what he has to say and he's warning about another massive speculative bubble building up. we have a new entry, we put up a story about 15 minutes ago, it is already lighting up my charts here, already at number two. i expect it to take over pretty soon here. playing with fire, margin debt is the most since the crisis. it's the feature from jeff cox. warning about margin debt levels where people are borrowing to buy stocks in the market. it's getting up high, highest in a while, 50% higher than last year.

two other big pullers pulling right now. black friday live, our live blog of black friday events putting on retail reports in there. it's starting to cool down a little bit, but it's been a big draw all day. finally robert frank took a look at how millionaires are feeling right now based on a survey, and they're getting better about the economy but a little worried about the market. no doubt they read the mark faber interview. those are the hot ones for us today. >> well, alan in black for the occasion. thank you very much, sir. more than a few packages you send or receive this year. will involve fedex. >> come back with one of the shipping giant's top executives to tell us what it takes to get goods delivered from doors everywhere around the world as a matter of fact. even when the weather is not that great. don't touch that dial. we'll be back after this. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 trading inspires your life. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 life inspires your trading. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 where others see fads...

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all right. it is getting busy here at the shopping mall. >> yes. >> i have to say. you can feel the energy level going up. so we are packed so far this black friday. but our next guest has his eyes on what's to come on monday.

fedex expects this year's cyber monday to be the busiest day in that company's history. 22 million shipments are forecasted to move through the fedex network on that day. >> incredible. how is the shipping company preparing for the big day. joining us is patrick fitzgerald, fedex's senior vice president of services. good afternoon to you. how busy is it today and how can you already tell that monday will be your busiest day yet? >> well, it's extremely busy today and monday, of course, is expected to be the busiest day not only in of the year but in the history of fedex. we can tell because we plan for it year-round. when it goes to 22 million packages, our average daily volume is 10 million packages, so you can imagine to be able to flex our network and provide outstanding service, into retailers and to consumers, we have to plan for it year-round. we're ready. >> cost is a big part of all of

this. the cost of fuels has been going up. the cost of shipping has been going up. what does that do to your margins and business and let's face it, the weather has not been cooperating lately either for you guys? >> well, weather is something -- you know, we do business in 220 countries around the world. weather is something that's a constant challenge for us. we have 15 full-time meteorologists. price of fuel affects our business and all of our customers' businesses about. it's part of operating a global network but we're proud of the service we're able to provide and the value we can provide for businesses and consumers. >> but you really don't see a drop in demand when those costs go up to a certain point? is there a certain point when you would start to see a little drop in demand or a softness as a result of the higher costs? >> it's really we see some shifting in the overall business climate and demand for certain types of services based on weather, price of fuel, other

things. but as the overall business evolves, we have a broad portfolio of services so we're able to answer the need across the broad port follow. it's something that we stay in close contact with our customers about. >> todd, if you're bullish on, you know, the ship to on-line spend, e-commerce, does that mean you have to be bullish on the package delivery companies here? >> i would. and i do have a quick question, though. when you start hearing about companies like amazon moving into the single day shipping or same day delivery, is that something that fedex can actually do down the line or something you're looking at? >> it's actually something we do now. >> patrick? >> yeah. we're in 20 markets with same day shipping right now. so intercity same day, 365 days a year 24 hours a day, we provide that service. it's something as there is demand for it, we can expand that and we are in close contact with customers because there is evolving needs as e-commerce grows and more packages are delivered to homes, we have a

broad portfolio and we're able to provide that service as demand calls for it. >> patrick, it's michael. >> hey, this place -- >> i'm sorry. patrick, it's michael farr. the retailers say about 20% of their entire year sales come just in this holiday season. is that true for fedex and you expecting a larger than normal holiday season? >> well, we project based on the industry projections. the industry projection calls for 3.9 % overall in the retail shipping increase for this holiday season, so we plan our networks accordingly. we were he not providing a forecast beyond for the overall environment but we have provided the forecast 13% increase for this coming week for volume. >> wow. that's -- that mirrors what we're hearing in terms of general e-commerce demand. patrick, thank you so much for joining us. david, todd, greg, michael, guys, really appreciate your

staying with us this afternoon. >> thanks for coming out to the mall. >> thank you very much. next friday is the jobs number. 175,000 is the expectation. if it's much above that with the short time until the christmas season the shopping, i think you'll see the market move much higher if we break that on the upside. >> watch that. >> thank you for the head's up, sir. >> more from the mall, plenty more on black friday madness when we come back on the closing bell. stay with us. you get your hair cut here. you find that certain thing you were looking for here, but actually you get so much more. when you shop at these small local businesses, you support all the things that make your community great. the money you spend here, stays here. in this place you call your neighborhood. tomorrow is small business saturday. get out and shop small.

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so we went to the -- there's a tesla store in this mall. i was joking she was looking for the doorbusters over there. you would love to buy a tesla here. we went in there, foot traffic very low. >> sure. >> i'm thinking who's going to buy a tesla. >> turns out -- >> we found somebody. look at this. you sir, bought a tesla. >> yes, i did. i reserved one. >> you reserved a tesla. >> 2015 model x. >> it won't be available. you're on a waiting list. >> i'm on a waiting list. $5,000 deposit and then you -- >> did you come in expecting -- >> no. i came to see you guys. >> you came to buy a sweater an left with a tesla. >> i came to see you guys, i was watching cnbc at home, i live close by. >> is your wife going to be thrilled when you get home. honey, i'm going to be on a tv show and come home with a tesla. >> we should say if that's the

high end, there's some low end, some people here who also got out with less than a car. $10 dress, right? that's what we got at forever 21. >> $10 dress, really pretty, i love it. >> and they had hats for $3 or something. >> $3, i got it in the clearance section. >> you didn't have to get here at 6:30. >> i got here at 8:30 and went 10:30. >> you could have bought a hat for $10. >> no. this is for my son. >> for your son? >> yeah. >> now he knows. >> who finished his cpa last year, a gift for him. >> wow. >> talk about an incentive. >> my daughter is watching. just because you graduated college, that's not happening. >> just to make kelly feel at home like she's back in london again, we brought in the guys here to help celebrate the holiday season as we go in there. thank the folks at short hills mall for being great hosts on the black friday edition of "closing bell." >> i'm glad you came to do some shopping, bill, as well. >> i'm actually glad i came too. it was a lot of fun here.

>> mission accomplished. we will see you again on monday. have a wonderful weekend. right now "the secret lives of the super rich". >> have a great weekend. >> in this episode of "secretli. >> unless you have an invite to this party, our exclusive access is the only way you're gonna see this massive production. >> it's a little drama. >> even we had to agree not to reveal where we are, whose party it is, or what they're celebrating. >> yeah, it's pretty cool. >> well, welcome to animal house. >> the value of this collection today is more than $1 million. >> and so i'm very pleased with big puss there. [ cat meows ] >> how do peta people feel about this apartment? >> i haven't had a party for them here yet. >> oh. [ laughter ] >> it's the ultimate access