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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  December 4, 2013 5:00pm-6:01pm EST

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in technology. >> guys, thanks so much for joining us. phil, thanks for flying n.plenty more coverage of all these e-com coming up, minimum wage stuff, too. "fast money" is coming up in just a few seconds. and melissa lee, speaking of going long social media, you're batting around facebook potentially joining the s&p 500. >> had to separate fact from fiction. we'll give you the real take. we're expecting the news potentially within the next hour. so should be a big one. >> a telling one. >> exactly. >> "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site in new york city times square i'm melissa lee. the trade of 2014. japan is shaping up to be the trade of this year, but one of our guys is making a call for next year's big trade tonight. and ten-year treasury yield on fire, rising to levels it's not seen since september. dennis gartman is here to tell us what moves he's making because of it. and watch out, apple. carl icahn isn't packing down,
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making a new push for a share buyback. we've got the trade on that news. our traders tonight are tim seymour, brian kelly and guy adami. let's get to our top story. people freaking out about the four days of declines for the s&p and dow, turn that frown upside down. we'll start with a new segment called over/under, like a game. our traders take a look at a few of the names in the green and tell us whether they are overrated or underestimated, and we've got to kick it off here with microsoft. caught our eye because it hit 13-year highs. the software giant completing its largest ever bond sale, some $8 billion worth with more than half sold in euros. we asked tonight overrated or underestimated? guy. >> it's hard to say it's underestimated given it's running 20% over the last couple of months, but i do still think it's underestimated. 13-year highs the last time we saw this was sometime in 2000. a lot of people shot against something, a pc story. more than a pc story.
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yes, it's a big part of microsoft, but it's not the only part of microsoft, and when europe was slowing down, they actually managed to tread water there, so regardless of what you think of microsoft, they seem to be doing things correctly. now, it's not a huge growth story. i mean, even at 14 times earnings you have to wonder if it's gotten ahead of itself in terms of valuation, but i do think it's still underestimated. i don't think people give them enough credit. >> two potential cat lifts, a new ceo coming in. >> i thought you were kind of bearish on the new ceo, and when we get that spike up. >> and i was wrong, because i didn't think we'd get to 39, but i've said all along that i think the stock that people misunderstood the name. i didn't think we'd trade 39 so i guess i should be sort of the other side of that. maybe the stock has gotten ahead of itself but i don't think it's overvalued and that's sort of the gist of it. >> the other catalyst here is what do they do the bond sale for so a lot of people are saying might do it for buybacks, take shares off the market and don't have to pay the dividend on the shares anymore and, of course, it boosts earnings. >> that's why i would agree with
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guy that it's underestimated here. yes, on the ceo, sure you'll get that one-day pop and i wouldn't be a buyer on that first pop but after that, remember, it's going to be a management change. you'll have a company that has a lot of great products. they are just not executing well, and with a new ceo perhaps they are able to turn that around. >> would you be a buyer? >> you know, i've been wrong on microsoft all year the i've doubted the company. i've hated the stock the whole way up. i'm changing my tune in the last few weeks because i'm starting to realize a lot of what's happening with microsoft relates to the cloud. people don't talk enough about how strong they are, and i certainly miss that. looking at the windows franchise and feeling they were vulnerable, a lot more on the server side. i feel strongly that microsoft if the market continues to do well should at a minimum track what the nasdaq is doing what, what the market is doing. i don't think it goes crazy to the upside relative to the market, but it's not a bad stock. >> all right. let's get to twitter here.
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up 5% today logging its best day since november 7th. ipo with the stock surged more than 70%. overrated or underestimated? >> josh? >> well, it's obviously -- it's obviously not trading based on any traditional, you know, fundamental valuation. that's not what's happening here, but i think you're seeing some jockeying for position in terms of what forward sentiment will be, and that's really tough to game, so one day people are down on these names. today it was a huge party for all the social stocks, linkedin, yell, facebook, and i think we're not going to have a strong handle on the direction until they at least report one financial quarter. >> over/under, what's the deal in. >> right now it's overrated, overestimated, but that could change very quickly if we like what they say when they report on it. >> i remember you said you were in right after the i'm poe. >> look, nothing would make mow happier than for this company to come out and underwhelm the street, drop into the 0s and give me a chance to buy more.
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i can't put on a full position here in the mid-40s. it's a $30 billion market cap and they haven't uttered word one about profits. look, i like the story, i like the company, but i can't in good conscience tell you all in right here at $43 a share. that's tough to do. >> and everybody -- i'm in the camp that it has to trade down to the mid-30s, 34, 35 for it to get interesting. i think a lot of people think that. i think 90% of the people think that which is why you're probably see it levitate to the levels because everybody is looking for that move. when everybody is setting up for one turning the opposite typically happens, but to josh's point, if it's going to go to 50 from here it will do without a lot of people which is probably why it will make that move up to the high 40s first. >> let's get to hp, up 4%, doubled in 2013. is it overrated, or maybe just getting started? tim? >> i think it's undervalued, undervalued relative to its history we we all know is a very different history but relative to its peers. you know, if you take where they
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are in the middle of the guided range on eps for next year which is around 3.70 a share and put a nine times multiple on this this is a $34 stock so ultimately even in a very conservative streak down the middle and a value, talking is it undervalued? i would say it is if you look at what they will generate in 14 billion in free cash flow. one of the last things they pressed, generated ed 1.9 billi in free cash flow. doing a great job operationally i think. it's undervalued. >> would you concur? >> no. ike looking at a stock up from $11. a lot has to do with the new ceo meg whitman coming in there and pricing in this five year playground. that's already priced in, so for me up at these levels i'm a seller of the hewlett-packard. sure, there's -- does it generate a lot of cash and all that? absolutely. but so much of the story is priced in here. what else are they going to do? >> you say over. >> i'm with brian. the thing with hewlett-packard i
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think it's at a really benign tape, and it tinnially gets the benefit of the doubt and each time it reports earnings it's not as horrible as it could have been, and it's just a lofty market for tech stocks. if this environment changes, people are going to take a second look and say, wait a minute. they haven't grown operating income in three years, can't grow revenue. almost every facet of the business is declining, not growing, maybe this is not worth 28, maybe it's worth 22. i don't think it's egregiously expensive. not the kind of thing i want to allocate dollars to? not expensive at all. if you look at chart this stock after the last earnings basically took back when it lost when announced third-quarter earnings when it dropped 12%. in other words, it's now regained this $26 level. it's traded through it, and technically the stock looks interesting, too. >> all right. las vegas sands, another big winner today. that sent the stock up more than 60% this year. overrated, underestimated? b.k.? >> you know, b.k. would usually say a stock up 60% would be
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overrated, but i'm going to go underestimated on this. >> really. >> here's y.relative to it peers it's priced fairly well. it has a lot of growth potential. we also have the emerging markets potential in there. people have certainly said now you'll have online gaming in new jersey. that really hasn't mattered. everybody wants to go to the big resort, big hotel. when you price it against other hotels like a marriott, something like that, still looks fairly good so here i'm going underestimated. >> let's see our chart of the day, ten-year treasury yield touching 2.5%, just ahead of friday's jobs report. this has hey lost implications, obviously. first and foremost, housing, interestingly, it was down today. josh? >> the home builders have become really tough to own as mortgage finance activity slows down, new home starts slow down. that whole complex is probably not where you want to focus new investment dollars. that story has played out going back to 2011 and zenithed in
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may. the way i want to focus on these developments in the ten-year and the yield curve in general is focusing on money-centered banks. i genuinely believe that the best shot at real earnings growth is going to come when you see that yield curve steepen, when the banks are able to borrow short and lend long. they tend to make a lot more money and takes analysts a while to catch up. pages can earn 11% more in earnings this year than next. that number could go even higher. >> coming up we although go around the desk and get stocks to play in a rising rate environment . but, first, adding a little zuc to your portfolio. reports that facebook will be adding to the s&p 500. we'll separate fact from fiction and talk about when you should be buying facebook now and carl icahn has a message for apple ceo tim cook, not giving up on his push for an apple buyback. we'll debate what that means for shareholders next.
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todd, what's the best trade you ever made?
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did you catch that? >> what was that -- what was -- that was the "b" side of what song? >> there's no lip-biting.
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>> "communication breakdown." >> that's the song. >> forget it. >> you see, you're yelling at the crew back in ec because they gave you the right answer. >> i'm not yelling at the crew. >> you answered the wrong question. "good times, bad times," by the way. >> she was cheating. >> yeah, nice, thanks. >> love zeppelin. >> anyway, let's talk facebook. swirling around the rumor mill today the stock moving higher on reports it will be added to the s&p 500. is this a bullish signal for the stock? jordan rochan joins us on the phone. thanks for joining us. >> thanks for having me. >> what do you think of facebook being added? >> as far as it being added for monday. sure seems like it's highly likely to be one of the next few to be added. it is by far the largest, i don't know, stock you would call a free agent available to be added to the index with over $110 billion in market cap.
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it's significantly profitable. it has shown several quarters of continuous profitability, even on a gap basis and, you know, has a lot of core growth and attractiveness, and i know the s&p doesn't necessarily want to tell you that they try to time things, but the recent move back from the mid-50s to the mid-40s were set up a base probably gives you an opportunity to add it to the index and still have some upside for the fourth quarter holiday season. >> let's say we were walking in, you know, this morning, and i said to you, hey, jordan, i hear facebook is being added to the s&p 500. would you say that that equals a 4% move in the stock? >> well, there are a lot of factors that go into it. i think facebook had been performing a base, fairly stable, and some other stocks were a little weaker than that, had endured some of the controversy to the teens going elsewhere and the ad work going down but when you do the checks
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on the company fundamentally, it's the larger purveyor of mobile ads out there. revenues are going up. everybody is getting new devices this quarter. you've got the iphones and the ipads and the samsung devices and these guys are the best way to play that, in my opinion, because when people get new devices they download new apps, they are more open as they switch operating systems. how did they hear about those apps, hear about it through places like facebook where they have a cost per install ad format right in the news feed. >> jordan, real quick. at the right price, and i don't know what that is going to be, does snapshot move the needle for these at the right price? >> snapshot, if facebook were to buy snapshot i think it would fall along the lines of instagram which is it removes the tale risk. a tail risk that becomes a
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platform some day and if it did happen would do damage to facebook. does it move the needle, i think investors breathe a sigh of relief and then we'll see a year or two from now how snapshot turns out. >> steve, thanks for joining us. do you think it's going to be a big boost to facebook being added to the s&p 500, if it happens? >> historically these moves are front ran, and and once they are added. >> that's it. >> and the snap chat thing sounds like a future write-off. $4 billion for a company whose content becomes invisible? i'm not really-hour -- >> it never disappears fully, josh. >> in -- sorry. >> in 2013 logic that would probably add $20 billion to facebook's market cap but it sounds like a write-off in the making. >> chinese internet stocks, youku. >> getting 30%, 40% growth at 40
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times earnings. y 0 ku up 7%, at barclay's conference and the ceo indicated they will get 10% of their net coming from mobile so the whole thing about facebook is when were the guys going to convert to mobile in the chinese internet names are making it happen in mobile, and this is something -- they have already drivenp you a lot of the stocks 50% to 100%, i met with the owner of 34% of ten cent which is arguably one of the most advanced companies in the chinese internet space. these guys are booming, so everywhere you look these names are not only delivering in terms of the market performance but delivering in terms of where they monetizing in mobile. it's a trade you stay, and china will be a tough year if they tighten on the macro but the internets can do okay? what did you say, the fattest trade? >> i agree with everything tim said. a real fat pitch. >> p-h-a-t. >> no, like a fat pitch, like in
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baseball. >> so listen, these companies are native mobile. they are mobile first to a large extent so tim is right. they are not trying to figure out mobile. it's where it began, and chinese shopping in general, the whole e-commerce idea, they didn't spend the last ten years building malls all over the place and stores only. they built out this mobile infrastructure. china mobile has the biggest, and these people are shopping on mobile before they are even going to stores so i think this is a real exciting play, and i like a lot of these names individually in the group in general. >> i know yahoo! is up 4%. tim talked about it. all talked about it over the course of the last couple of years. huge move, and chinese internet really yahoo! becomes one, right, so i've said for a while it's going to 40, well on its way today. hard to buy a stock like yahoo! up 4.5%. you know it's probably still the right thing to do. >> new developments with activist investor carl icahn an apple, icahn tweeting he's given apple notice of a proposal this
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will call for shareholder vote to increase apple's buyback, but he's calling for a buyback of 50 bill yorng not the 150 billion he previously suggested. so happens at this point, and is this another reason to be in the stock? we saw the stock break out. brian? >> plenty of other reasons to be in the stock. whether it goes from 100 billion down to 50 billion, i'm figuring carl figured out he can get that past. seems like a foregone conclusion and now go to the other cat lifts which is what tim talked about a lot, the chinese fobes coming in for them as well as ipad sales over this season. >> just talking about facebook, turns out general growth properties to replace rolex. take a look at that pop in ppg. >> if betake a look at facebook in the after hours sessions, interesting to see if it reversed. lack at that, down the 1.5%.
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>> what happened to him, josh? he disappeared? >> i have no idea. >> there's an empty chair. >> he likes to break out and pump a little iron. >> look at that. >> i guess so. >> vaccuous space. >> speaking of which, coming up next, it looks like -- >> there he is. getting ready for our next guest. >> putting down the mashed potatoes and stuffing and he's picking up the free weights. one stock that might work out quite well. we'll hear from the ceo of lifetime medic. >> melissa, can i stop now? >> muscle tee, tear them off. it's going well. >> this is exhausting. ♪ let me hear your body talk americans take care of business.
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are you okay, josh, from the activity, exertion? >> i'll be okay. right now not so much. >> he hyperventilated. >> he was breathing in a bag before. >> sustenance. as the new year approaches people are heading to the dwim to get fit, but could this stock help get your portfolio in shape. lifetime fitness is the only publicly traded gym, and joining us now is the chairman and ceo. thanks for coming by. appreciate it. >> thank you. >> i would think that this is a seasonally strong period for you. is it? >> certainly is. about just beginning of december, things start picking up. by end of december right after christmas all the clubs start seeing the most number of guests and new members. >> so in terms of your business model about 65% or so of your
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revenues come from membership fees. so what percentage of that total comes in from this time of year? how important is this time of year? >> it's important for gathering the new membership so most of the year for the clubs that they are mature, we're mostly treading water for memberships, and then what we gain in december and january is pretty much the membership we keep as the new membership gains. >> a $200 million stock repurchase which is not insignificant, a market cap of about $2 bill crop. do you think the stock is cheap enough where it's gotten to levels where it's become interesting to implement that now, or is it sort of a wait and see approach? >> no, as a ceo i certainly do. i think our company is extremely undervalued because of the amount of assets that we have unlike other -- other gyms that have existed in the last 50 years in the country, and fundamentals are strong, and the markets that we're going to
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right now are by far the strongest market we're coming to. right before here it took me three hours to get to westchester to lock at my large club under construction. maybe a handful of them are in land leases but the rest of them we own. >> have you lost money in this sector before?
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>> exactly everything. i have built the company on the premise of doing the right thing for the customer from day one so everything we do is a customer point of view. the memberships we built from day one is per month. you don't pay year in advance. we don't cash anybody out. we don't owe people money. we own most of our real estate so rents are going to keep increasing on us. we spend tremendous amounts of money every year in our twisting clubs. this is a ridiculous industry. there has been in 55 years or so in the history of this industry from european health spa days in 1960, there isn't a single company, public or private, that remotely is close to a mid-sized cap company. so the reason for that is hugely fragmented. barrier to entry is none. >> right. >> so what we are doing at lifetime is we're building a very, very high barrier to entry business model, across total healthy way of life assets.
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throw sections are athletic events in media, are defamations and also total health which addresses the health care of the corporations. across all of that we approach it with the utmost level of professionalism. we're not -- we're not comparing ourselves to any health club company, but what we're looking at is lexus, nordstrom, whole foods. those are the companies that we aspire to be like, and we're totally on our path, very, very exciting. >> got to go. thanks for coming by. appreciate it. >> the stock has held around the $40 level so, i mean, with the buyback coming in, probably not a bad place to be. >> i would be a member based on -- >> not already a member. look at how. how did you acquire if a that physique? >> crazy. i'm doing mostly mountain climbing. >> mountains of pot belly. all right. still ahead, why japan was the
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trade of 2013 and b.k. with the boomerang trade for 2014. stick around. back in a few. at farmers, we make you smarter about insurance. because what you don't know, can hurt you. what if you didn't know that posting your travel plans online may attract burglars? [woman] off to hawaii! what if you didn't know that as the price of gold rises, so should the coverage on your jewelry? [prospector] ahh! what if you didn't know that kitty litter can help you out of a slippery situation?
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welcome back to "fast." we're back here at the nasdaq market site. pops and drops, pandora, josh? >> list nick stats for november, listening hours were up to 1.49 billion, and users are 72.4 million which is 16% over last year. stock has already broken out. i think it keeps rolling. >> drop, j.c penny, down 2%. >> wells fargo came in and rained on the parade and said the price valueration is in a deep downtrend. actually have to make this move and now it looks like it wants to trade with an 8.5 handle. >> pop, mosaic, up 3%? >> getting a boost from potash and in this space i would much rather buy a name.
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>> pop for deere, up 3%. tim? >> hopefully got it yesterday, 8 million buyback will supplant the 2005 issuance. this is a stock that's totally lagged. this market has been dead, and if you're buying it for the buyback, you're probably not going to be in it for long haul. sold this stock at 82, not happy about it, but as much as i loved this company, a great flor at 83. i'm not chasing this buyback. >> and we've got a pop here for gingerbread. the folks of bryan, texas have made their way into the record books, 39,000 cubic feet it would make even hansel and gretel smile. >> ginger bread fans can visit the house until doebz 14th with all the proceeds going to a local trauma center. we won't tell you where it is because we don't -- >> you like ginger bread? be honest. >> i do.
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i like ginger snap cookies better. >> i think where you're going there is who likes gingerbread cookies? >> don't be a hater. >> i'm not a hater. >> i'll make the houses with you. go do it after the show. i'm not eating that stuff. yukky. >> it would be nice for you guys to do that. >> bonding experience. >> gm shares in the fast lane after hedge fund manager carl bass mistook it and the options action for today? >> interesting, of course, and because of the news one of the reasons we were taking a look at the options activity in the autos and the three names were general motors, of course ones with the most news stories with the allied financial investment and we'll look at their close competition, ford and, of course, just to round things out a little bit, maybe the technology and mar company and tesla motors.
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trading well over its option. ford seeing a ratio of it-2--1 and tesla 1.3 to 1. general motors is the most active call options were the march calls. trading around 80 cents. if you're buying those things you need to seat stock rise by march expiration but if you subscribe to was' valuation he's look at the stock well over 50. those people could see ten times their money. also interesting to me was tesla seeing a 140-strike call activity but those were sellers. seems to me that people looking at auto space are thinking when you can buy a stock like general motors with such a cheap valuation maybe you want to sell tesla at such a rich one. >> just curious, guy. tesla, movement interesting today. >> the momentum to me seems to be over so to trade the stock now it's a coin flip. >> to me in the autos, underperformance is interesting and lee or delphi, the best
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bets. >> thanks for the "options action." catch him weekdays at 5:30. stronger than expected adp jobs report is pushing u.s. ten-year yields to their highest level in three months. contributor dennis gartman has been short treasuries since okay. take a listen to what he said just last month. >> bonds look like after 31 years of having a bull market that we're probably entering a bear marmt. i think that we've seen a massive top taking place here. i think we have a -- a long-term change in the sentiment and in the bond market, and i think you need to be a -- >> dennis gartman joins us now. >> god to be here as ales, me. >> you're getting shorter. why? >> been short a while. clearly the adp number, and put
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more credence in the adp number because it's real data, real paychecks being written by adp and real counting. the market itself, as i said earlier, looked like it has made an important multi-year top. the market sold off today on that news and will continue to sell off. i didn't sell any more today ahead of that number, but i think you have to look at any time you get any sort of two or three or at most four-basis point increase or decrease in yield you need to sell into that bond market. >> how far do we go here? back at the levels we were the day before the fed didn't taper in september and gotten up to 295, almost 3%. where do we go from here. also talk of a budget deal. take that out of the way maybe the fed doesn't need to be as dovish. where are you asay mid next year on rates? >> i think you can take the ten-year sometime next year, well above 4%.
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4% does not stop anything. i'm amused that you go wow to 4%. i remember trading the long bond when it was 14.25% and certainly trade when it was 10%. >> that was in the '80s when there was major inflation and there's arguably disinflation. i'm not saying 4% can't happen in the near term. >> 4% can happen. >> sounds like an outlier. >> not even close. the federal reserve board does more to the banking system than anything else would be happy to see the long bond trading in price demonstrably lower and the yield trading higher. >> wouldn't that slam in the housing snarkt. >> no, no, it wouldn't touch the housing market. >> my first mortgage was 9%. we survived that. a 4% mortgage, please, come now. it will be easier --
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>> but a 9% mortgage -- >> it probably puts the equity market under a little bit of pressure but not much. i don't think that's going to be damaging to the equity market at all. in fact, i ascribe to the thesis that higher rates down deed indicate that economic activity is stronger and stronger economic activity begets higher interest rate. i'm sorry, i'm comfort basketball that. >> dennis, it's b.k. let's take that stronger economic acfist, i'm short treasuries and with you on this trade. what does that mean for dollar, for commodities, most specifically for oil because that also has it's economically sensitive but somewhat sensitive to the dollar as well. >> well, i look at the oil market. depending on what the term structure wants to do, and i've been bearish very -- of crude oil until about four, five days ago when the term structure started to change, i think crude wants to rally a little bit but not much. as i like to say, we've got -- there's a lot of $110 crude oil to be found, very sophisticated
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economic term. there's a gone of $100 crude oil to be found. i wouldn't be surprised in the process of fracking that we're going to go down and check out how much $80 crude oil there is down there. that wouldn't shock me over the long term and i can make the case with economic activity getting stronger that it shall that oil prices go to $80 and $85 go up. a conundrum most people don't understand. we've seen it before. >> on gone, we conclude this segment. good to see you. >> wti, what's the trade here? >> i think you just stay long wti. uso is one way to play that. go with the drillers, esv, that's the way i like to play it. >> if you believe dennis and think rates will trend to maybe 4% as dennis predicts what, stocks should you be buying at this point? tim, where do you go? >> i would make a call and also agree with these guys. rates are going higher. i'd be buying the dollar, canadian dollar and aussie. if you look at what happened
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today, the canadian dollar weakened back to may 10, 2010 levels and the aussie continues. everywhere you should be selling if you believe this is where rates are going but if you want to do a macro trade in terms of country allocations, the yen will continue to weaken and korea, eyi and etf, can play the most industrialize the country, happening because of stronger industrial growth. >> b.k.? >> tim pointed out the most important thing is why are rates riseing? rates were rights last spring and the economy weren't that strong and the rates still rose. now it looks like we're starting to get better economic news so you have to go again globally. a lot of people say financially. i say go base metals. hasn't performed well but look what copper did today. >> even with the dollar strength. >> yeah, absolutely. >> gutsy call. >> john? >> go the traditional route. before i even go there i would say this is a discussion about
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the speed at which rates increase. i don't think anyone on this desk would argue that a sudden jump in rates to 4% would in any conceivable way be constructive. we already saw the taper tantrum this summer. that's an indication of how people will reaction. >> only at the-ten year. >> correlation with rising stock price going pack to the 1950s. nothing wrong with what these guys are staying, how drastic and how quick. i said at the top of the show the banks are going to make more money. keep it simple. that's where you want to be allocated and based on ten-year earnings multiple, one-year earnings multiple, the cheapest sector in the s&p. that's exactly where i would be and that's what i have been buying. >> have an insurance spin to them, and if you look at a
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prudential, have a huge rin and the last four years we've been sideways. you'll see the correlation and thisistic could easily -- this is a stock that could test those levels with us on 2007 so financial services with insurance spin, the best of the bench. >> how is will farrell hoping to do sales? that's next on "fast." >> i'm only one with the guts to tell you about the glove box. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ]
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what was that? >> welcome back. in case you missed some of today's top moments on cnbc here's the rapid fire recap in tonight's "executive edge." >> we need to continue to invest in our nation's entrepreneur support and celebrate them so we
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can continue to have the most innovative entrepreneurial culture and therefore drive our economy and continue to be the leader of the free world. >> an ipo is an ambition of ours, absolutely and being one of the most popular apps in the world, platform for movie engage mpd and tv engagement, commerce businesses, it makes us think that an ipo in the future is a great ambition to have. >> i don't believe that capital spending will pick up a lot from the big companies next year. i don't think they need to do it. i don't think demand is strong enough. what they are going to do instead are putting buildings or people in place. they will invest in productiv y productivity. >> the ron burgundy campaign and all of a sudden the drango is the vehicle to have. we have stores that are up as much as 50%. i think we're up something like 5% on the drango.
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. >> guy adami. >> automation, up 2% today. talked about that stock before. sold off from the 55 level. auto nation is a really good story that doesn't get talked b.should discuss more. auto nation, wherever it's trading, is a really god play. >> all about the chrysler trade and then getting the stake that the uaw wants to ipo. i think fiat gets it first. steve case, by the way, the great theest heist ever, the aol deal back in the day. >> heist. >> he'd be thrilled with that. >> i think he is thrilled. >> looks pretty happy, i agree. >> all right. let's get to the trade of 2014. this is the one to watch as we enter the brand new spanking year. so b.k., what is it? >> so last year we talked about you could buy japan, sell the yen. that's been a massive trade. still going to stay in the asia-pacific, but i'm going to go with australia so why now? why the australia dollar has weakened significantly but still
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massively overvalued. last evening australia abolished their debt ceiling so they won't have any worries about that anymore and they will be able to stimulate the economy, so in this case how do you trade it? there's not an etf out there that does it for you. what you have to do is you have to buy the ewa and let's say, for example, you buy 1,000 shares and roughly $25,000, then you short fxa and short about 240 shares for every thousand shares and the reason why you do that. in 2013, if you haven't done, that you would have been done on that trade but if you were short of the fxa you'd be up 15%. this is a great way to play. recovery in ais and recovery in china and recovery in commodity. >> you have to believe china is okay. >> tim? >> i think it's a good call. >> watching short-term rates. tell him that china wants to tell him things.
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the iron ore supply is a big deal for australia. too much of it. >> so far china has had a ginger touch with that, right? they tighten a little bit. >> they do have to be careful. >> if they like china it might be simpler to go along chinese equities to trade at goldman sachs recommended earlier in the week. they are not counting on big growth economically in china. they are counting on multipga pal expansion for chinese equities and that's long overdue. chinese stocks are extraordinarily weak relative to the rest of the world for three years now. so that might be another way to play what brian kelly is seeing. >> coming up next hour on "mad money," everyone needs a little help during the holidays and cramer is nokesception. he's got the founder and ceo of tequila to talk about which liquors will be the most spirited during holiday season. >> that's good stuff. >> shares of gogo have increased
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over the past couple of months. [ female announcer ] thanks for financing my first car. thanks for giving me your smile. thanks for inspiring me. thanks for showing me my potential. for teaching me not to take life so seriously. thanks for loving me and being my best friend. don't forget to thank those who helped you take charge of your future and got you where you are today. the boss of your life. the chief life officer.
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♪ i'll have a blue christmas
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without you ♪ >> seen a lot of live shots in the day but this one is really something. the rockefeller center tree getting ready to lit up this evening. 8:55 p.m. eastern time on nbc to be specific. the tree is more than 70 feet tall. >> it's beautiful. >> it's gorgeous, so it's going to be a sight to behold. >> a douglas fir or fraser fir? >> i'm not sure. >> that's a good question. >> we're going to cudoba and then walk over. a hat on, scarves. >> it's cold outside. nippy, if you will. >> wow. >> all right. it's a spruce, by the way. >> thank you. thank you. >> you tweet it, let's trade it. get some of our tweets. this one is for guy. why are you laughing? >> a hold is a same as a buy. we can get that for another show, and what do you do here? trades back down to 60. if that's too much room, get out and buy it there.
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it's had a tremendous run. 60 was resistant. i think it trades back down to 6-0. >> iron ore in general? >> considering i said buy australia trade for 2014 better like iron ore. i like cliff's natural. $25 seems to be decent support so go ahead and buy them. >> tim. >> potential upside. >> with solid potential upside, is china mobile a buy at these current levels? >> i think it is. it's actually one of the larger positions i have in my only personal i.r.a. they are paying me a 4.2% dividend yield. we talked about apple. 800 million mobile users and a switch to at least much higher revenue generating products in the future in the current, terribly inefficient. all kinds of terrible accusations. probably a lot of stealing in terms of, you know, a lot of inefficient cap-x, but, yes, you own it, and that's, why because i think it's -- it's a valuation that's not demanding, and there's a lot up there.
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>> this one is for the reform broker. gogo, where does it go off from here? worth a lock? >> this stock is off the hook. it's doubled since its i'm poe. >> is this good or bad? >> could be either. >> if you're long the stock, it's phenomenal, but the momentum here is just off the charts. they announced international expansion. it went up 27% in two trading days. i would not be a buyer, although i really like the story, and i hope that one day it comes back to earth so that you can consider a real investment. >> got your first trades tomorrow when we come right back. before their gift helped preserve the point...
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before a credit solution was used to expand their business... before trusts were created for their grandkids' educations... they chose a partner to help manage their wealth... one whose insights, solutions, and approach have been relied on for over 200 years. that's the value of trusted connections. that's u.s. trust.
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[ bagpipes and drums playing over ] [ music transitions to rock ] make it happen with the all-new fidelity active trader pro.
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it's one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. get 200 free trades when you open an account. [ male announcer ] this december, experience the gift of true artistry and some of the best offers of the year at the lexus december to remember sales event. this is the pursuit of perfection. time for the final trade. tim? >> mel, have a great time at treat lighting ceremony. china mobile after that emphatic and impassioned plea, i'd own it. i do own it. >> b.k.? >> ensco, love this name. >> reformed broker. >> bank of america, bac, steepingning yield curve. >> and guy? >> i don't want you to think i'm some killjoy. i'll make the gingerbread and i'll eat it. >> i'm not going to the tree
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lighting with you. >> final trade. >> facebook down 2% from the close. buy facebook. >> all right. i'm melissa lee. see you pack here tomorrow at 5:00. for more "fast." my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you money. my job isn't just to entertain but to teach you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. i come with the worst possible news for the stock market imaginable. or at least we thought it was, the worst possible news for most of the day. until we reviewed the tape. it ended

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