i don't know what happens with mulally, but i think the stock works higher. >> it's up 100% since he's run that company. >> hertz, htz, like it, a lot of unusual call activity. >> jim. >> cliff's natural resources, iron ore producer. >> i like chesapeake. >> that's all for us. we'll see you tomorrow. "power" starts now. >> "halftime" is over. "power lunch" and the second half of the trading day start right now. >> it sure does. thank you, scotty. paying dividends. as the ten-year ticks ever higher, we're looking at the highest paying dividend stocks to see how they measure up and how they'll hold up in 2014. is the jobs number wrong? our steve liesman and eamon javers have been doing fantastic reporting to find out if the labor department has been giving us essentially bad data. and fast food restaurants across the country are facing some very stiff protests today. demonstrators want the minimum wage to jump to 15 bucks an hour. what would it mean to businesses if $15 an hour really becomes a

reality? all of that is straight ahead. tyler and i have done the big switch switch switcheroo. he's at the nyse. hey, ty. >> we cut through the fog and made it. thanks very much. a big day of data. the big number, of course, is that third quarter gross domestic product report, up 3.6%. the revision there, jobless claims down 23,000 to 298,000. october factory orders down 0.9%. here's what mr. market is saying. the dow is about 23 points lower right now. but look at the year-to-date numbers, up 21%. let's take a look at the s&p 500. it, too, down about 3 points, 1,789. that was a good year in the american revolution, folks. but look at the year-to-date returns there. if eye my eyes don't fail me, up about 25%. as for the nasdaq, the comp is up about 2 points hanging in there around 4,000. look at the nasdaq composite, up

by one-third. so if you put your money in, you'd be one h-third richer tod than you were on january 2nd. take a look at this. this is key for us today. it's the s&p dividend index. a look at the year to date there, up 25% or thereabouts. the ten-year bond now at 2.85%. seema mody is here to tell us the dividend stock selector and how to compete. >> that's right, tyler. the dividend play may not be as hot now that investors can get a 2.85% return on the ten-year treasury. they may look for stocks that offer an even higher yield. now, about one-third of companies on the s&p 500 offer a dividend yield that is higher than 2.85%. the yield on the ten-year. but we wanted to dig a little deeper to find out which of those companies is also attractively priced, meaning with the stock price that has lagged the market and the company is trading at an attractive valuation. names that made that list include tech players intel with a yield of 3.3% and cisco with

3.2%. although after their latest earnings report, analysts have been cautious on this name. and in the health care space, pfizer and eli lilly offer a dividend yield that's higher than the ten-year. both of these stocks are lagging the s&p 500 this year. now, out of the two, damian conover says eli lilly has more upside. he says the main drivers include its insulin franchise and its animal health business. analysts also excited about lilly's promising alzheimer's drug which is in development. so soon, tyler, as rates rise, it could create a more competitive environment for these high-yielding dividend stocks. >> i'm sure it will. thank you, seema. well, today marks the anniversary of alan greenspan's famous irrational exuberance warning to the markets. >> how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions? >> ah, so 17 years later, as

stocks sit as record highs, which companies could be suffering from a little irrational exuberance of their own? dominic chu has been looking into that for us. >> think about it. let's pretend we're in a time machine, go back to december 5th, '96. markets then versus what they are today. on a bigger picture macro level, look at the crude trade, $26 a barrel. yield on ten-year treasuries, 6% back then. now under 3% today. and how about the stock market? we're just off those record l highs, 1,790 on that day in 1996, it was 745. valuations, they're reasonable on a relative basis. back then you were paying about $19 for every dollar in stock price in earnings for the s&p 500. today it's still lower. so a cheaper valuation in this market. there are some stocks, though, that have shown huge price increases this year but have managed to lose money, say, over the past 12 months or so. take dreamworks animation. up over 100%.

but it's still working to get back from losses that it had last year. or there's solarcity, up 360% this year, but it still hasn't posted a profit over the last year. and another high-flying stock back then was mobile chipmaker qualcomm which traded at 127 times earnings in '96. today it's valued at 19 times earnings. so maybe not all that irrational exuberance for some stocks despite, sue, the record highs that we're seeing. >> that was a great look because it really does put it in perspective when you're sitting at these record highs, it's easy to kind of look at it and think that we're at record highs. >> remember when qualcomm was supposed to be $1,000 stock? >> yes, i do. i do. we've been doing this a long time. ty, down to you. >> all right, sue, thank you very much. so is the fear of losing the fed's stimulus stronger than some good economic news like today's gdp number? and is that good economic news so great in the first place? deutsche bank chief u.s. economist joe livornia is here.

welcome to you both. joe, let's not get too picky about the gdp number, but some people are concerned that so much of the growth came from inventory buildup. is that a good thing? a bad thing? does it speak well of the future or what? >> late in the cycle, inventory buildup is typically bad because if the demand has been slowing, then inventories need to be pared. at this stage of the cycle, it's so early in the vinvientory cyc. we're finally getting the cyclical addition that inventories normally give us now. it took a long time. we have it. and i believe it actually reflects producers' confidence in the economy and that demand is getting better p zmo erbette. >> and that demand will follow. david, what does this say about the economies and the taper, if that happens, over the past week

or so? obviously it's been a great year, but the past five days have been not so great. what's the market telling you? >> well, this is really consistent with the consolidation and small pullbacks we've seen over the last few months. really we think this will be short-lived and we look forward to a year-end rally and another strong year in 2014. >> so what do you think the market is reacting to? just the fact that prices had run up so far and people want to get some money off the table and take some profits? is it, as joe was saying off camera, a taper tantrum or what. >> i think to call it a tantrum is a little strong. you're seeing markets just a couple percentage points off their highs. so this is more has to do with the market digesting the recent gains and also expecting some tapering in 2014. but we don't think it's going to be severe, and we think the market's going to increase with the taper, and it's a reflection, as joe said, in stronger economic growth looking forward. >> joe, do the current stock market prices, are they justified by either the level of economic growth we've seen or the level of economic growth

that you predict? and you predicted we'd have 3% growth in the second half of this year. >> the stock market is not expensive by any means. the work my colleagues have done on the equity side has reflected that. binky chada has a great chart which shows the type of return you get in the equity market at this stage of the cycle which is about 17% annualized. so the market is not expensive, tyler. it should be a very good year in 2014. you'll get less stimulus from the fed, but the fed will still be very accommodative. >> one of the things that leapt out at me, joe, was your prediction of unemployment a year from now. give me your thought about tomorrow's job number very quickly, and tell the audience what you predict for unemployment this time next year. >> so i'm probably jinxing myself, but we're assuming 185, but importantly 50,000 plus in upregard revisions. so it should be a number effectively around 235. that's solid and will be consistent with a december taper. if we take the trend in the unemployment rate, the rate

should break the threshold sometime in the fourth quarter of next year. >> the threshold for interest rate tightening is 6.5%. you think it's going to break that a year from now? >> absolutely. especially if our growth forecast is correct. >> joe, david, thank you as well. appreciate your being with us. sue? a perfect segue, ty, because there's been a lot of controversy lately about how trustworthy the labor department's jobs number really is. so a day before tomorrow's jobs report, detailing employment in november, cnbc has uncovered some new information about how the government actually gets to that big number. senior economics reporter steve liesman who's right here with me and eamon javers in washington have both been on the case. we start with you, eamon, down in d.c. >> reporter: that's right. that controversy coming after a news report that said that an employee had allegedly falsified data in the gathering process that went into the jobs number ultimately and the unemployment rate. so the question that's on a lot of investors' minds now is is there a falsification rate? here's what we can tell you

about how the census department gathers data on behalf of the department of labor that goes into the unemployment rate. take a look at this breakdown quickly of how they build it. 2,700 field reps are out there every month interviewing at least 70,000 addresses every month. they do these by knocking on doors literally interviewing people face to face as part of this household survey that goes into the unemployment rate, and it they're responsible for handling about 20 to 40 addresses per month. now, here's how a source familiar with the process tells me that the census department makes sure that there isn't fraud in this process. because anytime you've got that many employees, you're going to have somebody who's lazy or failing to fill out the forms or trying to cut corners. so what they do is, they have supervisors. randomly recheck about 2,000 addresses every month. those supervisors randomly re-enter view at 400 households a month, collect all the data all over again to check and make sure not only did the interviewer go there to do the interview, but that the data was

correct. and then about 150 times a month, supervisors are suspicious enough about bad data, that they actually pull an interviewer's entire list and re-interview them top to bottom. so if there is fraud this this process, that's where it's going to be, in that 150 a month where they think something doesn't quite smell right. so what is the falsification rate? well, officials would not tell us what the falsification rate is, but it's clear from the process that they are concerned about falsified data going into this survey, and they've got a system in place to try to weed it out as best they can in terms of any process that you've got with human beings in it there's going to be some bad data in this number ultimately, sue. >> thank you. stay with us because steve, you have some more analysis on this whole debate. >> let's talk about two things. first of all, the "new york post" story had two charges in it. one is that some of this data was falsified. the other was done for political purposes. what we are finding is that there is falsification in there. we cannot tell if it's above or beyond normal sampling that you get in such a survey. no evidence yet, and some

suspicion, by the way, that perhaps the political charge was overhyped a little bit. there's no evidence of that. but still questions remain. let me show you three that we were unable to figure out. what is the actual falsification rate? there's some tolerance of falsification in it. it's called sampling error. sorry, nonsampling error where basically a guy doesn't do the interviews and makes them up. >> right. >> but what about this actual case? what if the supervisor colludes with the interview? remember from the report, the supervisor is the one with assuring the integrity of the interviews. what if, in this case as we were told, the supervisor said it's okay to do this? and in the third thing, there's not enough disclosure on prior incidents. they say that there have been prior incidents. they say there's been displain. >> but they don't talk about it, yeah. >> and the importance there, sue, you know the importance of this number. zmoo absolutely. >> and people need to believe not only the integrity data but the integrity of the process. >> does it change very quickly, the way you think the fed might look at the be in? >> no, i think what we know is

that the fed will look at this over a period of time. and one thing that perhaps disproves the political charts here is that this number came down and stayed down, which would mean you would have to keep up the conspiracy in order for it to have enabout the result -- >> to be consistent. >> -- of a conspiracy. i think the fed would take a step back and say you know what? this number has been down and it's probably the best measure we have out there of an uncertain statistic. >> steve, thank you. eamon, as always, thank you as well. ty? sue, folks, greece, portugal, ireland are going back to the market. the uk is talking about growth. is europe back? our international correspondent michelle caruso-cabrera is on the case. michelle? >> tyler, all those things lead to a big question. did austerity work? we're getting some pretty clear-cut evidence today. that's next on "power lunch." follow the money. all right. also ahead, where's that wicked winter storm going next? it is bringing cold, snow, ice, sleet, hail, pestilence across the country. it's hitting travelers and

everyone else. the forecast is coming up. where will it go next?

w to "power lunch." check out caesar's entertainment, the world's biggest casino company is cautioning investors that internet gambling might hurt rather than help its brick and mortar casinos. caesar's which owns 4 of atlantic city's 12 casinos wrote in a regulatory filing that gambling online could reduce patron visits to its casinos in

new jersey and nevada and harm the company's bottom line. but a spokesman at the company downplayed the warning, telling the associated press it had to be included for legal reasons regardless of how likely or unlikely the company believes a potential risk to be, sue, back over to you. >> thanks, dom. big news out of europe. the uk seeing stronger growth ahead and less spending. and after living off eu and imf bailouts for years, greece may finally be getting back in the credit markets. its deputy treasury secretary said today that they're going to be able to borrow again next year. we'll see. chief international correspondent michelle caruso-cabrera joins us. you posed the question before the break. does austerity work? >> not just greece, but portugal, ireland also expected to borrow next year. all had government spending for the most part that was far bigger than their tax revenues would ever be able to support. their original dream, they were going to be able to grow into that spending. they didn't. so they had to cut spending. were there incredible costs? absolutely.

gdp sunk dramatically. terrible youth unemployment. but those things were going to happen anyways because the governments had been borrowing. and delivering to people a standard of living that their productivity level was never going to be able to support. so decision day was going to come at some point. that's what it's led to when you see the garbage piled up in greece and spain because people go on strike because they're mad about the budget cuts. but where's the money going to come from? >> absolutely. well, the money would come from more borrowing. >> right. >> but, you know, i still question whether or not they're going to be able to do that next year. what are you hearing? >> i think ireland is a slam dunk. i think they'll be aible to do it. portugal is still questionable. greece, it's going to be up to whether or not their european partners allow them to do it because i think the credit markets would do it short term because they know they'll get paid back in three years because greece owes the official sector 15 years out. right. so they're the short-term borrowers. that's why the official sector may not allow them to do it. greece, if you use corporate terms, is basically insolvent

whereas portugal, ireland, et cetera, are not, right? greece still owes 280 billion euros to the official sector. the chances of them paying back that are zero. >> zero. >> right? here going to get extended maturities out over with very low interest rates. >> it's just a huge amount of money. it's really difficult to fathom. thanks, michelle, for putting in perspective. ty, down to you. let's talk a little about the weather. minnesota and other parts of the midwest north to south are a mess today. here's video from the town of two harbors, minnesota, on lake superior. they've got three feet of snow on the ground. the storm came in yesterday and really dumped on them. and here is the weather channel's alex wallace. >> good thursday. the big story, no question about it our winter storm that's going to bring a slew of winter companies across the southern plains. we're talking about snow, a wintry mix. that will include a bit of sleet and there's also the potential for freezing rain. icing conditions parts of texas, oklahoma, spreading its way on into sections of the mid-south for the day. and it doesn't stop.

we'll still be dealing with this as we head on into tomorrow. hour of that wintry mix and icing. dallas working over towards little rock. and on the northern edge, that's where we'll find a bit of snow. oklahoma city, you'll be dealing with a bit of snow. how much? it looks like generally the bull's-eye will be in this purple. five to eight, southern parts of missouri working our way into southern sections of indiana. those are the higher totals. but the maybe concern is the icing potential. we're talking about some spots that could pick up more than a quarter of an inch of ice. dallas, little rock to paducah there in kentucky, that could be very dangerous not just for roadway travels but also power outages could be a big problem in this purple area as we head through the next 24 to 48 hours. >> all right, alex wallace reporting from the weather channel for us. now, you may have to skip that burger today. fast food workers all over the country are apparently walking off the job to protest the lowness of the minimum wage. they want it doubled. we're at one of the big rallies. we'll take you there. plus, if the minimum wage were raised to $15 an hour, what

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stock of the day today. up 55%. this on positive data from the phase two trial of the experimental breast cancer drug. the company now has a market company of over $2 billion. ty?

all right, sue. let's take a look at where the markets stand right now. they've all turned negative. the dow down about 42%. the s&p off about 5 and the nasdaq at 4,035. it has turned ne eed negative. kenny polcari is here, bob pisani is here. gentlemen, what do we make of this market in light of the strong economic data today, and, you know, presumably a fairly nice jobs number tomorrow. >> i'm not so sure the market really believes in strong economic data today. the gdp seems out of sync with the rest of the reports. considering also that goldman sachs just cut their fourth quarter number. something just doesn't feel right. and i think the market's telling you it's not true. >> so they don't get that looking at the retail reports. we've had four retailers warned in the last 24 numbers that the fourth quarter wasn't going to be as good as anticipated. there's another 12 left, and i think you'll get more warnings. i agree, there's some kind of

weird disconnect that's going on here. >> there's some question about how the data were collected having to do with the government shutdown and so forth in october. >> right. >> you may have been getting sort of more stuff slammed in now. >> you know, don't forget, too, they changed the way they calculate gdp, you know, over the summer, right? where they're adding in movie rights and all this stuff that was never added in before. so it's skewing the number a little bit. so i think you have to be careful about that. >> today the anniversary of the repeal of prohibition. not just the anniversary of irrational exuberance. >> put up stocks of alcohol. december 5th, 1933, the 21st amendment came into effect. this repealed the 18th amendment which was prohibition. that came into effect in 1920. and this was a little unusual. this was the only amendment, the 21st amendment, that repealed the prior amendment, repealed the 18th amendment. i know you're a scholar of this. it was the only amendment that was ever passed using a different method. it was used -- it was state-ratifying convention was

used. they passed it using state legislatures. they were so politically charged that they had to have a state-ratifying convention for it rather than simply the reg tour pa legislature. it passed december 15th. i think it was pennsylvania that became the 36th state to ratify. it was the last one. there were only 48 states at the time. alaska was not a state. nor was hawaii. 48 states. >> that's why pennsylvania's rolling rock beer has 33 on the inside of the labor in honor of 1933. gentlemen, thank you very much. >> thanks. sue, up to you. >> trivia that we never thought we didn't know. steve and i were, like, really? is that why they do that? >> i would think tyler would be the one to know that. >> i think tyler would be. fast food workers in about 100 cities walk off the job today in an effort to push for higher wages. nbc's katy tur at one of those rallies in brooklyn, new york. she filed this report during the protests this morning. >> reporter: here outside of this wendy's in brooklyn, about 100 people have shown up. they've completely blocked the

entrance trying to disrupt the lunchtime rush, not allowing pretty much anything inside. their goal is to get workers inside these companies like wendy's, inside these fast food joints to come out during their shifts. i'm not sure that's happened. it's been kind of hard to see whether or not anyone's been able to come out. that's really the goal across the country is really to disrupt this service. they've been chanting things like "we can't survive on 7.25." they're sea saying the minimum wage isn't enough for them to live. it's not enough for them to feed themselves or their families, not enough for them to clothe their families. they're saying a living wage, a fair living wage would be $15 an hour. of course, these are the second protests in just a few months. there was a major protest over the summer. they were somewhat effective in some cases, shutting down some fast food joints, not shutting down other ones. we'll see how these go today. certainly pretty effective here at this wendy's in brooklyn. >> that was nbc's katy tur. so let's talk more about essentially the income in equality equation.

steve liesman along with robert frank. steve, let me start with you. what does it mean for these companies? what's the bottom-line impact if, indeed, the minimum wage did go to $15 an hour, and how soon do we see that? >> there's a couple ways it could be redistributed effectively. it could come out of the owners of the corporations' profits, or they could charge customers more. those are the two essential ways. >> if they have pricing power. >> so the question is the social good of a cheap hamburger, the social good of the profits of the hamburger owners versus the social good of the profits -- or the wages of the workers there. and that's how you balance all that stuff out. that's attenuated by competition from other hamburger makers who may be able to do it more cheaply. and there's no easy answer here. i think what's happening is in inequality is rising to a point where it's a big problem. people are looking for ways to solve it. we don't even understand the reasons for inequality. and if the problem with the minimum wage is a symptom or is it actually the cause? >> you know, robert, you talked about this yesterday, though, that income inequality, i mean,

we have essentially always had income inequality. >> yes, some levels. >> it just seems as though the gap is getting bigger maybe the economy is not recovering as quickly. >> yeah. the simplistic way to look at this issue is well, mcdonald's makes "x" billion in profits. walmart makes "x" billion in profits. we would just shave 20% and give it to the workers. that would be so convenient for some, but as you just pointed out, it doesn't work that way. the question i tried to look at -- >> some of it works that way, robert. not all of it. >> but that would presume that capital would give it up voluntarily. what is the impact on jobs? why isn't there one solid credible study that shows minimum wage doesn't affect employment or does. >> or does, right. >> in fact, my question to you, economists are so divided, there is no one answer. does it hurt jobs or does it help jobs? isn't this studiable? >> you would think it would be. there are many studies that go all the way back to the '30s

about this. it originally began when they first put the minimum wage into effect at -- trivia -- >> 25 cents. >> 25 cents an hour. >> how did you know that? >> because i told him earlier today. >> oh, stop. >> i did do a trivia thing. raised the next year to a grand 30 cents an hour. economists would like to study stuff on a desert island, but it's not a desert island. there's effects on productivity from the minimum wage, effect on wages. >> but this much they agree on. a 10% increase in the minimum wage, some say, could lead to a reduction in teenage employment from between 1% to 3%. that really depends on -- >> there's another study, robert, that it keeps them in school longer. and as a result of that, they end up being more productive. >> not a bad thing, right? >> smarter workers. because of the fact that if they go out, they're not going to be employed at the minimum wage level. >> i'm seeing a cnbc investigations piece materialize before our eyes. >> certainly another segment tomorrow. >> absolutely. >> robert may wind up bald at the end of the process if he tries to understand the impacts of minimum wage.

>> thanks, guys, very much. dominic chu is back with the "market flash." >> speaking of fast food, sue, check out what's happening with jack in the box shares after a wedbush outperformed that its qdoba. street estimates to move up with regard to that. now, wedbush also raised its price target to 60 bucks a share from 50. so maybe qdoba, a viable competitor to chipotle. let's talk about gold now, continuing to take a beating. prices closing right now. sharon epperson is watching all the action over at my nenymex. >> reporter: it hasn't been as bad. closing around 1231 an ounce. we were as low as 1216 an ounce earlier in the session. a lot of traders are saying they're really just waiting for tomorrow for the jobs report to see what indication that gives them about what the fed's going

to do next. how soon they may taper. that will raep haeally have thet on gold prices. but the big question is could we see gold potentially fall below the 1200 an ounce level and take out the low of the year. that's what traders are waiting to see. we've already seen holdings of the gld fall to the lowest levels we've seen since early 2009. back to you. >> sharon, thank you very much. let's go to the bond market and rick santelli. hi, rick. >> reporter: hi, tyler. well, everybody knows that interest rates are moving a bit higher. now, if you look at a 24-hour chart or a two-day chart, even better, you can see that that 2.82 level was important yesterday. it's important today from different directions. that's why it's a pivot. but many people believe, many traders on the floor, many investors that write to me via e-mail that tomorrow's number is the key to whether we get above 3% in a timely fashion. i can't disagree with that. open the chart up, these are the highest yields. since the 17th of september,

keep that date in mind. i like using it for the dollar index as well. look at the 80.5 level on this chart. that's the piflt. we've talked a lot about the dollar index looking weak based on this pattern, but it's always interesting to look at the pieces. today the euro is strong. think mario draghi, 8:30 eastern and the pound giving some back. tyler, sue, back to you. zmoo thank you so much, ricky. appreciate it very much. you're up to date on the bond market. straight ahead on "power lunch," "the power house." we travel to the top real estate markets in america. today, miami. it's been on a run. but if rates rise, will it roll on? plus, from rock star to rock fraud. ♪ i met a girl ♪ she's super cool >> he's a wannabe rock star who scammed $11 million out of four big l.a. banks. >> what he had was an ability to cheat. >> how he pulled it off coming up right here on "power lunch." ♪

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♪

-- con man. how did an l.a.-based rock star go from the main stage to a prison cell? well, andrea day has the story. >> this was a guy who wanted to be a rock star so badly, he would stop at nothing to live the dream. even pulling off a brazen scheme to get millions. take a look. ♪ ♪ i met a girl ♪ she's super cool >> reporter: this is rob's song, "turn out the lights." he's got all the rock star moves, hot girls, even riding shotgun with a rapper in his video "i'm not a gangsta." he's the lead singer for l.o.p., short for lights over paris. and just check out his customized tour bus. >> i like to go over the top. i like everything to be crazy. i like everything to be extravagant. >> reporter: from a luxury condo in downtown l.a. to jet setting around the world with his band.

it seemed like l.o.p. was taking off. but it was all a facade. they never had a single hit. in fact, his band never even put a dent in the chart. >> what he had was an ability to cheat. >> reporter: according to federal prosecutors, he conned banks into loaning him millions of dollars. >> he's getting loans to fund a fantasy, a rock star fantasy. >> l.o.p. is going to succeed no matter what. >> reporter: but there was one problem. assistant u.s. attorney central district of california ronny castenstein. >> he didn't have any income. there was no money coming into his accounts. >> reporter: she says he came up with a plan. convince banks to loan him money. >> he couldn't get the loans unless he lied. and that's what he did. >> reporter: she says he told four different banks he owned this recording studio in l.a. but he didn't. his friends did. when underwriters wanted to check out the studio, he gave them a tour. he also gave them doctored tax

returns and phony charles schwab account statements showing balances of close to $8 million. >> in fact, over the entire time period, the most he ever had in the bank account was $10,000. >> reporter: the banks bought his story. according to prosecutors, from 2008 to 2011, to the tune of more than $11 million including $3 million from comerica bank, $750,000 from bank of america, $500,000 from zions bank and $2.4 million from jpmorgan chase. ♪ turn off the lights >> reporter: he took the cash and produced two videos, one featuring rapper the game. ♪ our love is like a drug >> reporter: his attorney, al jarrett. >> the money kept getting spent and kept getting spent as the tour got more and more expensive. all of a sudden he was trapped in a situation that got out of his control. >> reporter: and he says he kept spending. $750,000 for this luxury tour bus.

designed to look like an airplane from the nose to retractible awnings. a master bedroom, even platinum-plated tiles in the shower. >> he was living the life of the a-lister. of course, he wasn't earning the money to be living the life of an a-lister. that he was relying on the banks for. >> he rationalized, naively, that he'd rather quickly be able to pay it off. >> reporter: investigators say he was essentially running a mini ponzi scheme with the loans using one to pay for the other, but it all came crashing down. the banks wound up calling the fbi, and he was arrested. he pled guilty and was released. but what happened next stunned even prosecutors. >> the day, the very day after he pleads guilty, he goes into a credit union in orange county and does exactly the same crime one more time. >> reporter: he was thrown right back in jail. does he have any regrets? >> oh, sure, he does, absolutely. >> reporter: but he says the banks should be on the hook for handing out millions.

>> he knowingly submitted fraudulent documents. but the banks took them at face value without ever actually verifying the authenticity of the documents he was providing them. >> reporter: but katzenstein disagrees. >> no matter how good the underwriting was, he was cheating them. >> reporter: he was sentenced to seven years in federal lockup. i spoke with him from his prison camp in texas. he says he didn't care about lying to the banks at first because he really thought he'd be able to pay it all back. meantime, he tells me his schedule in prison is totally full. he's taking yoga and spanish lessons. he's even learning how to play the guitar, this time for real. back to you. >> all right, andrea day reporting. she has been called one of the world's leading young thinkers. she's also an adviser to presidents and top ceos, among other things, she helps people like you make better decisions. and she has advice for all of us coming up.

plus, "the power house," we'll travel to the top real estate markets. and today, boy, how much i'd like to be in miami right now. find out how much money -- how much house your money buys you there next. hi honey, did you get the toaster cozy? yep. got all the cozies. [ grandma ] with new fedex one rate, i could fill a box and ship it for one flat rate. so i knit until it was full. you'd be crazy not to. is that nana? [ male announcer ] fedex one rate. simple, flat rate shipping with the reliability of fedex. [ male announcer ] this december, experience the gift of true artistry and some of the best offers of the year at the lexus december to remember sales event. this is the pursuit of perfection. my boyfriend has a lot of can't-miss moments.

i checked out the windows phones and saw the lumia 1020 has 41 megapixels. so i can zoom way in even after i take the picture. and i can adjust the shot before i take it so i get it exactly how i want. so, i went with a windows phone. maybe i just see things other people don't. ♪ honestly ♪ i wanna see you be brave ♪ if every u.s. home replaced one light bulb with a compact fluorescent bulb,

the energy saved could light how many homes? 1 million? 2 million? 3 million? the answer is... 3 million homes. by 2030, investments in energy efficiency could help americans save $300 billion each year. take the energy quiz. energy lives here. coming up on "street signs," we love america but lately we're wondering if there are better places for your investment dollars perhaps overseas. it's going to be a europe versus u.s. debate right at the top of the show. plus, we're going to try to find the best pick in the single most surprising sector of the stock market over the last month. i guarantee you it's one that we have not talked about much. we're going to talk about craft brewers and some of the stocks there. and guys, in honor of the new color of the year from

pantone, i'll demand to be called radiant orchid for the entire show. >> all right, mr. radiant orchid. >> thank you. it is "power house" time. let's check in on real estate in miami, florida. patricia is president and ceo of century 21 premier elite realty. she's the 2012 president miami association of realtors. it's the largest association of realtors in the u.s. welcome, patricia, nice to have you here. let's look at the stats for miami. they represent single-family homes in miami and dade county as of october 2013. median sales price, $220,000. up 19% year over year. average sales price sits at about $422,000. a 30% increase over year over year. median days on the market, about 40, and there's about a five-month supply of inventory. let's take our first listing, miami, florida, list price, $249,000, about $3,500 in taxes, two bedrooms, one bath, 1,100 square feet.

tell me more about it. >> the world's eyes right now are on miami. this was an extremely good buy. it's now contract pending. the buyers went ahead with an fha loan, putting 3.5% down, and the seller paid $5,000 towards closing costs. and this is like the soho area of miami's hip and trendy city. so this home, townhome, is two bedrooms, 1 1/2 baths, very clean, sleek, modern in an up-and-coming area. great buy. >> all right. number two, kind of a middle-of-the-road property, if you will. listing address is 7546 southwest 188 lane. it's in cutler bay, florida. the list price, $459,900, taxes, about $6,100. bedrooms, 3 1/2. bathrooms -- 3 bedrooms, 3 1/2 bathrooms, about 3,000 square feet. tell me more about it. it's actually 4 bedrooms, i should say. >> yes. and this, again, shows why it's a great opportunity now to buy

in miami. we have 2003 and 2004 pre-boom prices. so this is a bargain for $459,000, about $140 a square foot. it's right off the prestigious old cutler area, prime, gated, 24-hour security, pool, tennis, spa, what more can you ask for? >> yeah, absolutely. it looks lovely. it looks like it has some nice views, too. >> great deal. >> let's go positito the power of the week. in aventura, florida. $1.2 million, $10,559 taxes. it's a beautiful home. >> for the shopaholics, this is minutes away from aventura mall, the highest grossing mall in the united states. this is an aventura and country club estates. what's unique about this is there are only 80 homes in this neighborhood, and it's overlooking the golf course and a bird preserve lake. and you can walk or jog around

the vita course which is three miles long. so this is a very popular neighborhood. great buy. i expect this to sell in just weeks for $1.29 million. 4 bedrooms, 3 1/2 baths. another great bargain. >> thanks for spending time with us. we appreciate it. ty, down to you. >> thank you. thanks very much. "vogue" magazine described norwina as one of the most inspiring women in the world. she's also a noted economist and adviser to presidents and ceos. she gets paid to help people make smarter decisions. her thoughts for executives, investors and people like you next. when does your work end?

does it end after you've expanded your business? after your company's gone public? and the capital's been invested? or when your company's bought another? is it over after you've given back? you never stop achieving. that's why, at barclays, our ambition is to always realize yours.

welcome back to "power lunch." supermarket stocks are falling after kroger's, the nation's biggest supermarket operator, reported weaker than expected sales. kroger's safeway and super valu all falling in the entire industry taking a hit on those results. back over to you. >> thank you very much. for some people, decision-making isn't so easy. so executives and investors have to make thousands of them, big and small, every single day. and norwina advises some of the world's top ceos and presidents, and one of they are major

accomplishments was working with the governments in the middle east on the peace process. so that tells you she tackles the big ones. she is the author of "eyes wide open: how to make smart decisions in a confusing world." she's also a professor of economics at university college in london. ms. hertz, welcome. good to have you with us. >> thank you, tyler. >> i think everybody who's watching this program right now wants to be able to make better financial decisions that end up rewarding them. and yet one of the things you write about is all of the incoming signaling that you get -- people get -- from experts. we've got a lot of experts on our programming every single day. how do i evaluate that intelligence? how do i decide who's worth listening to and maybe who's not? what can i do to make a better choice? >> well, it turns out that when we hear experts speak, the independent decision-making part of our brain switches off, seriously. they've done brain scans. so we need to keep our independent decision-making part

of our brain switched on because experts get so much wrong. i don't need to tell you guys about the financial crisis and how a whole host of experts led us up a merry path and didn't predict what was going on. but in a study done of 82,000 expert predictions, over 16 years, experts did no better than a monkey randomly throwing darts on a board. >> so how can i tell who might be better than that monkey? is there any indication that the more confident a predictor is in their personal presentation, the better they are, or is it quite necessarily the opposite? >> tyler, it's the opposite. they've done studies of radiologists and other doctors. it turns out that those who are most confident in their predictions frequently underperform. so we've got to become smart information hunter/gatherers ourselves. nowadays we have access through the internet, through listening

in on twitter, to information that we never had before. if you were interested in a company, you should be tracking it on twitter. looking for an information advantage. a disgruntled employee, a client, highlighting a problem before it makes the news. >> what about distractions that can come in and maybe cause me to make a less good decision, a distraction? you have an interesting example of how people who are trying to make a decision and they look at one image versus another and they make a worse decision because they chose the wrong image. >> yeah, it turns out our emotional but also our physical states really affect our decisions. there was an experiment done with male undergraduate students. they were schonehown an image o victoria's secret model or a rock. it turns out the guys that were looking at the victory's secret model made significantly worse financial decisions than those who had been looking at a rock. i'm sure cnbc viewers are also looking at rocks, not at

victoria's secret models. but seriously, we have to note our emotional and our physical states because we bring that into our decision-making. >> i'm going to remember not to choose my mutual funds while looking at a victoria's secret catalog. let's talk about corporate leaders who have multiple decisions to make every single day. how -- and multiple tasks to accomplish. what is your best advice for a corporate decision-maker to be able to make decisions better and more clearly? >> well, i've spent the past 20 years advising some of the world's leading decision-makers, ceos, presidents, prime ministers on big decisions. one of the things that comes up time and time again is a need to cut yourself off from the decisions that don't matter. the smartest decision-makers out there, they delegate. they ditch decisions. they part decisions. and they also carve out thinking time. i know when you're busy, you feel how can i carve out thinking time? but the smartest decision-makers, they find that 30 minutes a day to really think

because otherwise you become a slave to your e-mails, to your distractions, and you just respond. >> disconnect and think for 30 minutes a day. if you leave us with one message, i think that's one of the best ones. noreena, thank you very much. zmoo thank you, tyler. >> the author of "eyes wide open." and three big winners in today's downish day, we'll tell you about them when we come right back and wrap up this hour of "power." [ male announcer ] here's a question for you:

if every u.s. home replaced one light bulb with a compact fluorescent bulb, the energy saved could light how many homes? 1 million? 2 million? 3 million? the answer is... 3 million homes. by 2030, investments in energy efficiency could help americans save $300 billion each year. take the energy quiz. energy lives here.

a little bit of a downside bias on the markets right now. the dow is down just under 50 points. same kind of a percentage loss for the s&p which is down 6 points. the nasdaq is on the verge of moving positive again. it's down only about 2 2/3 points. everybody's watching the ten-year note. we have that employment report tomorrow. and rick santelli handicapping it for us saying that basically we could see a 3 handle on the ten-year tomorrow depending on what that employment report looks like, ty. three winners, dollar general, cabot oil and gas and peabody energy rounding things out with pretty doesn't percentage gains there.

>> thank you very much, sue. we're looking at the markets, slight declines across the board for the nasdaq, dow and s&p. i bought all of my greeting cards at dollar general. >> excellent. "street signs" begins right now. you're way ahead of me, ty. >> see ya. bonjour and hola, america. yes, we love this country, but after a four-year run, is it time to move your money overseas? welcome to "street signs." did your city make the list of the best job markets in the country? we rank them. the surprising hottest sector of the stock market right now. and on this 80th anniversary of thankfully the repeal of prohibition, the single best beer stock to own. cheers, melissa lee. >> cheers, brian sullivan. take a look where we stand on the