tv Street Signs CNBC December 16, 2013 2:00pm-3:01pm EST
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i thought it was an it interesting conversation you had about a half hour ago about bernanke and greenspan and volcker. >> you know, i give it to bernanke only because the 2007 crisis was so global in nature. >> all right. >> and the moves he made were impressive. >> "street signs" begins now. ♪ it's the most wonderful time of the year ♪ >> it is the most wonderful time of the year but most important week of the year pore the stock market. all eyes on the fed. hi, everybody. good start to the week for stocks. we'll hit them. your other top stories this hour. could america actually become an oil exporter and who wins if we do. why google is buying up so many robot companies and for the files of no good deed goes unpunished, a story about a backlash to giving that you've
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got to hear. >> hello, everybody. we're holding in positive territory at the dow gaining by triple digits. up by 143 points as we speak. this is after the worst week in nearly four months. but even with last week's being a downer, the s&p is still less than 2% below its record close. let's send it over to our market reporters, mary thompson is joining us from the nyse. rick santelli is at the cme. mary, it seems like a pretty good start to the week. >> it certainly is, mandy. couple of reasons for the rally today. the markets were oversold coming into today's session and getting a bounce. it's been aided by the good data we received today coming out of europe on the manufacturing side, also industrial production here in the u.s. was strong and a couple deals helping to move the markets. energy has been some of the best performers so far today. exxon mobil among the winners within the dow 30 after an upgrade at goldman sachs. also lsi which is being acquired by avago for $6.6 billion helping to underpin the tech sector in today's session.
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aig finally doing the deal to sell its aircraft leasing business, selling it to air cap, the deal worth $5 billion. coming in to the last ten minutes or so, weakness in consumer staples they have turned around. we continue to see weakness in names. we're keeping watch on those. back to you. >> thank you very much for keeping the watch on them. mary thompson, straight to rick santelli. i don't need to tell you, this may possibly be one of the most important weeks of the year, right? >> i think it's going to be, but maybe for a lot of different reasons than many viewers and listeners think. i personally think the fed has been very successful on one front for the taper. and that is, lowering expectations to the point that when we do get into the minutia about how it's going to turn out it's going to be at a snail's pace, snail's pace. i think that's what adequately describes how well stocks have hung in and the fact we haven't seen a lot higher rates but the
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rates we have seen, we close at 175 and a ten year at the end of last year. the stickiness of rates. if it takes forever today's data tells us foreigners aren't buying at the clips in 2011/2012. if the fed ultimately vacates the space who's going to make up the difference. so in lies i think a big conundrum for the fed at some point in the future. >> an excellent question. we will see the answer no doubt over coming months. thank you very much, rick santelli. it is about the fed this week. and happening right now, the federal reserve is celebrating its 100th anniversary. let's get to steve liesman. steve, what exactly are we hearing right now? >> there's paul volcker speaking. we have an unusual gathering of all the living former fed chairman, volcker, greenspan and bernanke in the same room. no cake on the table, i noticed for this celebration on the birthday. ben bernanke is going to make some remarks and say that the fed going to defend the fed's policy actions over the last
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five years over his tenure saying the fed operated traditional way using new methods to fulfill its tradition of providing liquidity. bernanke and greenspan, and the richmond fed president between them and volcker probably making a couple joke. three fed chairman guys from three eras. volcker fighting inflation, greenspan kind of riding over the crest of a series of waves including the tech bubble, but also moderate growth and declining inflation, bernanke's era marked by fighting the financial crisis and some instances deflation. >> any way to read into their faces on whether or not we are going to get a taper on wednesday, steve? a briefcase indicator perhaps? >> no. but my guess is with the three economists in the room there's at least nine different opinions on what the fed ought to do. >> and that does look like, to people on the radio, a rockin' party. when i think of a 100 year
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celebration that's what i want be to have. >> thank you. >> sure, brian. >> this may be the most important year for the markets anyway. after a string of better economic data more think the fed could slow its bond buying program, ie the taper, at its wednesday meeting, but if so or if not, what should you do right now? some big questions for our smart guests. joining us is jim paulson from wells capital management, david lutz, jim, i imagine you hoped a taper on wednesday just for the sake of not having to deal with when will the feds taper questions anymore? >> yes, i do. i think it's been long overdue in my book and the data has been there for a while to at least at a minimum suggest that maybe we should ease less aggressively. that's the only decision that has to be made. not like we're going to tighten right away. ease less aggressively when the unemployment rates drop 3 percentage points, back growing, when the global economy is
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arguably the broadest and most synchronized it's been. i'm hoping they'll taper and if it's a controlled taper, methodical slow taper i think the markets will be fine with it and actually will probably go higher in the early part of next year. >> to that point, is it possible by taking away the uncertainty factor by giving us a taper this week, it would actually be a positive for the market? is that a possible scenario? >> absolutely, mandy. at the end of the day, the market does not like uncertainty. it can handle bad news when it sees it coming an everybody agrees this is the most tell graph fed move of all time but a coin flip whether they taper on wednesday or january, february or march the bottom line is, though, the taper is coming. it has to come, mandy, because you know what, thanks to our economy improving we're auctioning $600 billion a year less in government paper. the fed buying almost 80% of all issuance. if they don't taper by march they will be buying 120% of all new issue once. everybody has gone ahead and
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structured for this trade. we're looking at a couple things for positioning in the market and we think this is going to be a positive for the credit market because at the end of the day, two different metrics are showing us that the street has factored this in. first of all short interest in the tlt, the long bond etf, the highest it's been in almost four, five years right now. a lot of people have factored this in. we look at the cf it tc commitment of trader data out every friday at 3:30, treasure trove of information. ten-year shorts are near one plus year highs at this point in time. >> without belaboring the point is it possible when you see the positive price action in the markets today, even after good economic news, kuz this already suggest that the market is not fearing a taper? >> no. it's not fearing a taper whatsoever. it's going to remove that uncertainty. i've been marketing over in europe over about a month and a half ago, the european fund managers didn't want to invest they were because budget, the out the taper. this is removing a lot of these
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obstacles and i think a lot of the price action we saw earlier today was a lot of european money something into the market. there's been a sustained bid since europe opened in all of the global futures and what we're starting to see is the uncertainty barrier removed from the budget vote and the taper. market has things to look forward to in january and february which will get hairy. this is removing a barrier to people for investing. >> all our viewers and traders are who are not professionals, they have money in a 401(k) or whatever it is, do they need to fear the taper? >> i don't think so. i would try to keep my focus longer term in what i'm doing. we might face a volatile year here in 2014 because i think that what's going to start is a nice controlled methodical harmless taper, might turn into more of a pappic taper if the fed is forced to reverse course more quickly, inflation data
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changes or money vel lossty turns up forcing the fed's hand. i don't think it's anything to fear. i agree with david, look, our -- three of the biggest fears we've had unemployment rate wouldn't come down, guess what? we're going to start next year with the six handle probably. we worried about deficits and government debt. 4% deficit and drove over the debt ceiling last year into prosperity of 2013. now going into '14 worried so much about fed when they have to taper. we're going to taper and maybe drive through it and move on. we will remove three of the biggest fears of this market, maybe that will lead to a better 2015 and beyond. >> jim, my view is there are unknowns and known unknowns. for an unknown, a true black swan fearful event you might dump stocks, raise cash, buy gold, whatever. we know the fed will reduce bond buying at some point. that's why it's a known unknown. the only unknown is the timing. so if we're going to make it, if we believe we need to make a change to our investment
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strategy, even if you leave a few percentage points should you start changing things now? >> well, i think history is on the side that this thing has a ways to go. we have not often ended cycles for the first time that the fed starts to remove monetary stimulation. typically we might have a bit of a pause when that happens and we could in 2014, but usually it's not the end of the cycle. most every recovery that's successful, the fed ends stimulation and the markets in the recovery go on for several more years. i think that's what this is saying. some sense it's success, i think, that fed is finally to the point where they're admitting it's time to start easing up because the economy is doing better and i think that what is going to change is not so much moving away from stocks, but maybe moving eventually from cyclicals to defensives if barn yields continue to back up. >> always good to have you with us to start the week as well. >> thanks for having me. >> thank you. >> reminder, "street signs"
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right here, is your home for all things federal reserve. we are going to have special coverage all day wednesday, leading right up to that big decision at 2:00 eastern time followed by bernanke's final news conference as chairman of the fed. it's going to be a big couple days. please tune in. on deck, the growing rally cry of ship baby ship. why more americans are calling for the u.s. to export our oil. >> google making a big bet on some downright scary looking robots. so what exactly is up their sleeve some we we sleeve? >> we'll be digging in on that. today's mystery number, $607 million impacts about every single up with of our viewers and listeners. still tweet us in, send it to sully @cnbc or mandy @cnbc. the answer when "street signs" returns. americans take care of business. they always have. they always will. that's why you take charge of your future.
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energy stocks pushing higher today on the heels of a goldman sachs research note on energy. goldman likes refining stocks and upgraded exxon mobil today. the analysts think exxon is nearing an inflection point and likes the defensive quality of that stock. >> and the energy information administration, the eia out with a bullish forecast for the new year in terms of production. the eia expects domestic oil output to surge to 9.5 million barrels per day by 2016, fear a
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historic high. the report cites a break neck speed of shale oil development. >> for the last 40 years, there's been a ban on exporting american oil. now calls to end that ban are growing. will it happen? if so who might benefit? joining us dan, senior contributor at the street.com and andy of lipow associates. do you think we could get an end to this export ban? >> a lot of warring on both sides because there's billions of dollars at stake here. the winners on the one hand the domestic e and p companies that have invested so much money and had great results in our shale plays we talk about all the time, the balk and eagle ford, all of those areas those people or companies deeply engaged there, will do excellently. their stocks will absolutely spike again. they've had a great 2013 already if an export -- >> do you think it's almost a matter of necessity because we're hearing about because there's such an abundance of oil
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gathering in areas like the golf if we don't somehow alleviate this glut this could jeopardize the energy boom. >> a lot of reasons to -- first of all, the export ban was born out of opec. the oil shock from the '70s. >> it really is kind of behind the times. a lot of reasons for increasing the amount -- >> a quick law slapped. >> place because of fear of opec and the power over us. >> it is behind the times but there are losers in this and we're going to see them come this export ban who do you see as the winners and losers? give us names here. >> the winners when i look at the domestic oil producers are noble, ok dental in the basin as well as in colorado. i think a lot of the winners could be european refiners, the refiners over here may be losers paying more for than oil but over in europe, people like pkn in poland, mol in hungary and a number of others stand to
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benefit, will get more competitive crude oil. >> sorry, mandy. andy, what i don't understand, we still import millions of billions of oil a day from opec nations not necessarily our friend. why would we export any oil while we're still importing oil from other sides? >> the big difference the quality we're producing which is the light sweet variety, importing the heavy sour variety from opec to satisfy how the refineries on the gulf coast are constructed. so meanwhile we could ship our light sweet crude oil to european refiners much simpler and still getting gasoline back from them from the coast. >> would the u.s. be a winner or loser in this? there are two schools of thought on what kind of impact there would be on gasoline prices. >> most of the people who are opposed to lifting the ban would think there's a consumer problem on the back end. i don't agree with that. i think mostly because gasoline is exportable. you don't need a license to export it. the prices of gasoline
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surprisingly sort of move on a global market level. whereas the price of crude kind of moves on a domestic level. sounds anti-intuitive but that's the way it works. gasoline is already based upon global pricing as it is now. i don't think that's changed whether the export ban is lifting. >> do you expect we will get an export ban lifted from libya in the next few days? holding up stuff at the ports? do you think libyan oil will come back on line and move prices at all? >> i don't think it comes on quickly. i think it's another three four months. you have a split between the east and western parts of libya. if it does come back on the market i expect prices to drop 5 to $7 a barrel. >> dan and andy, always good to talk to youp. thank you so much. let's stay with the energy story because there is another big bright spot out there. gas prices continue to fall. to sharon epperson for today's pump patrol. >> gas prices nationally are falling once again. we are looking at the national average at $3.23 a gallup down
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about 3 cents in the last week. not quite at the lows we hit a month ago. but we are seeing prices drop as we have refineries across the country that are nearly at full capacity. particularly in the midwest and this is a trend likely to continue into the new year. in 2013 we're likely to see prices on average that are about a dime lower than they were in 2012 and prices are going to be even lower still in 2014. now we have about 8 states where the price is below $3 a gallon for the statewide average. and we're looking at the cheapest gasoline in the country today in ed mon, oklahoma, where $2.64 a gallon will buy you regular unleaded. that's today's pump patrol. back to you. >> sharon, thank you very much. on deck, break out the salt and the shovels another big storm is headed this way plus, why one analyst upgraded blackberry. >> and it is your last chance to guess today's mystery numberp
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time to reveal today's mystery number. mandy gave it to you, $607 million. the answer, that's how many pieces of mail the post office will move today. it is the busiest day of the year and also shaping up to be one of the busiest days of the year for companies like ups and fedex. they think they will deliver 15 billion pieces of mail between thanksgiving and new year's eve. >> a large part of the nation is cleaning up today from a pretty messy winter storm and officially winter has started yet. this is all just as a new one is taking shape. we will have more on that in just a second but first of all, let's bring in our retail may ven courtney reagan. how do the retailers feel the freeze this weekend some. >> you know, mandy, one thing that retailers like during this time of year is cold temperatures. much like we're feeling right
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now. they like it dry, not what we saw over the weekend. we saw snow and ice fall from missouri to maine. not a good thing for retailers for who have two weekends left before christmas. what happens to the sales and the traffic that were probably lost to that snowfall from electra. the good news is, most people think because it's christmas and because people have to get those purchases in time for the big day that traffic and sales gets pushed forwards to this week and this coming weekend. 20 to 30% of all holiday sales are done in the final two weeks. most people think it's going to be more than that this year anyways because of that compressed time period and now with that snowstorm, i bet everyone's going to be finishing up this week, myself included. >> me too. but the problem here is, i'm already thinking i'm just going to do it from the comfort of my lovely warm snug home. to what degree will it be the retailers that have a strong digital presence and already out there with like their free shipping promotions and all kinds of coupons to get you in, are they going to be the winners
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this year? >> sure. and like you guys were talking about, shipping obviously a very big deal and a very big business this time of year not just for retailers but fedex, ups, usps. we're running out of time. fedex said some of the on-line orders you're going to see service disruptions because of the weather from this past weekend so all of that will get backed up. you can order on-line but in the next couple days are your final chance to be able to make sure you can get that inventory and get it to your door in time. remember, there could be another storm which i understand you're talking about in just a minute that's coming behind the one we just had so on-line shopping, take caution. >> yeah. which could make you less likely to order on-line if you don't think it's going to get there in time. thank you very much. meantime all of our viewers in phoenix or l.a. or west of here must be laughing that anybody still actually lives in the northeast. it's 77 in phoenix today while we wait on another storm. let's get to the weather channel's nick walker with this storm's latest path.
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nick? >> it does seem like one right after the other. here it comes on the water vapor loop. see the moisture coming through, portions of wisconsin now, chicago, you'll get snow this afternoon, indianapolis, detroit, monday night football it's going to be rough coming out of the stadium, snow on your way home. we'll watch this area of low pressure developing and moving up the coast and that's going to bring snowfall as we get into tonight and tomorrow. around philadelphia, new york, throughout the day here in boston tomorrow, and as this area of low pressure deepens and intensifies, we could see the winds on increase, the snow on the increase, particularly here around the coast of maine. we're talking about as much as a foot of snow off the great lakes and along the coast of maine. >> thank you very much for the update. we are getting breaking news folks. on the nsa phone tapping program. to eamon javers. what are we hearing so far? >> it's a setback for the nsa in federal court. a judge ruling today that the
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nsa's gathering of so-called metadata, information about telephone calls, is uncontusi unconstitution unconstitutional. the judge was going to stay his ruling and allow the government to appeal the decision. at issue the collection of so-called metadata, information about phone calls such as the number called, time and date of the call, that sort of thing as opposed to the content itself. it is a blow to the nsa to have a federal judge use that term unconstitutional when applying to the nsa's gathering of information here. >> all right. eamon javers, thank you very much. you know it's a wacky day on wall street when blackberry gets an upgrade and twitter gets a downgrade. we're going to dig into both of those calls ahead. >> what is google up to with the super fast animal looking robots? we'll find out when "street signs" returns. [ male announcer ] the new new york is open.
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happening with the markets here. up by triple digits on the dow. this is after last week was a downer, one of the worst weeks in four months. as for the gainers, we've got the biggest gainer on the s&p 500, is lsi corp. going to be talking more about that in terms of its deal today and we've also got the biggest loser on the s&p and that is adobe. >> you got -- i love our team. look at this, see that. seasons don't fear the taper. this is what song is about, right? they got it wrong because they were, you know, on [ inaudible ]. >> street talk time. twitter today is getting a downgrade to underperform at wells fargo and not the only downgrade out there for this stock. >> it's not. sun trust downgraded the stock to a neutral rating. bullish preipo. listening to squawk on the street this morning jim cramer gave the analysts a lot of credit. said it was a bold call, pre-ipo by the analyst, the guy got it basically right.
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kudos to jim for saying this guy hit it on the head, up about 115% since the ipo. >> yum brands an upgrade today to outperform from market perform at bernstein. >> parent of kfc, pizza hut and taco bell. they note increasing market skepticism of yum but feel the company is not permanently impaired and will recover in china. food safety scares there. their target boosted. they see 16% upside on the stock. only up 10% year to date. >> we've also got hotel stocks, not just one but a few out there because they're doing very well. >> analysts upgrading them to a buy from a neutral. starwood red hot, trading at levels not seen since may of 8 198. wynn resorts higher, trading at another all-time high since its ipo in october of 2002. hot has been hot. >> final stock of the day is
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tiffany hold from sell. >> hardly a boost of confidence call but the reason i put this in there, a lot of things, it's a capitulation call. the analysts downgraded to tiffany to sell in march, all kinds of commentary not right on the name. throwing in the towel, admitting he was wrong about gross margins up 56% over the past year tiffany's year has been. saying hey, we were wrong on the margins and not a big boost but a capitulation. hit the fundamental and technical story of the day, blackberry. getting an upgrade today, though the target price of the analyst below the current price of the stock so take it for what it's worth. still let's welcome in ryan of shaffer's investment research on the charts, andy bush on the fundamentals. andy to you, the analyst says assets are worth between 6 and $13 billion. the current market cap of
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blackberry is 3 billion. implied value there according to this analyst who's based in paris by the way. any reason to own blackberry? >> yeah. i think their potentially can be. chen took over this company as ceo back october or whatever in the fall and promised big changes although they were going to focus on, obviously, enterprise business and that's cool. here's what's happened. this way you have to pay attention to you want to own the stock. they were asking people the lenders to buy $250 million worth of convertible debt. now what happened was, was that they've extended this to january 13th. in other words extended it past when they're going to announce their earnings on friday and the thinking is that friday is going to bring some better than expected news. i don't know how, because this is a -- you know, as brian as you know, such a soap opra with blackberry. totally mismanaged this company forever. it probably won't be difficult
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to beat expectations but i think that's what the gig is here, is not only did this analyst upgrade his assessment, happy days and maybe he's right, but really the environment is, they've put off this, you know, date for which people can invest in the company thinking or convert their debt, thinking that they're going to present good news that would encourage people to buy that debt and make it convertible. just like fairfax did with a billion dollars, that's what they're hoping another $250 million will do. >> you can see what the feeling of the marketplace is. i was in a mobile accessory store over the weekend and my son was buying a little case for his iphone but actually didn't sell any blackberry cases. what does that tell you. ryan -- >> well, i was just going to say, pfizer told their employees to get rid of their blackberries and buy either an android or buy an iphone. so this is a company that's in trouble. >> i wanted a new sparkly case for my blackberry, but no deal. do the charts tell a bullish or bearish story on this stock?
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>> along with what andy said i'm seeing positives here. getting to the chart we know this year has been a terrible year. lots of people tried to pick the bottom and burned repeatedly. one thing i like there could be a bear trap happening right now. the price violated its lows of last year, 2012, and as quickly all the bears got very excited and now the shares are starting to come higher. if they can get back above up around 640 or so, that can be a sign all those bears capitulate and got bearish. one other thing we like at shavers is cinnamon, there was a magazine cover in business week that compared, you know, this company to an artifact. you know, extremely bearish. when you see things like that, 27 analysts have a buy, sell, hold, zero buys on this. negative sentiment. any positive news like ap endy mentioned. >> you're both a little more positive. i'll tell you, they did get a pr boost, big little, nice oxymoron. jumbo shrimp. the president using a
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blackberry. can't have an iphone. shot of obama with a blackberry. take the wins as you can. thank you very much. appreciate it. check out our on-line edition of talk aing numbers, yahoo! finance and click on cnbc, talking numbers, boom you have it. up next, google's humanless army, why is the search giant amassing an arsenal of robots. >> facebook shares have doubled this year. next an analyst gives us three reasons why he thinks the social network's run is nowhere done in the new year. but first, let's go over to the nyse and check in with the "closing bell's" dynamic duo, kelly and bill. >> hey, guys. despite the big rally, a new poll out finds nearly 40% of americans believe the market is going to drop next year. >> we'll hear from someone whos says that's why investors should keep buying into this rally. >> tesla about to start selling cars, guess where? china. a few buyers over there. >> could be a big market.
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find out if that means this is a chance to drive away with the stock 25% off its all-time highs reached earlier this fall, all that and more coming up on the "closing bell." >> see you then. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 searching for trade ideas that spark your curiosity tdd# 1-800-345-2550 can take you in many directions. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 you read this. watch that. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 you look for what's next. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 at schwab, we can help turn inspiration into action tdd# 1-800-345-2550 boost your trading iq with the help of tdd# 1-800-345-2550 our live online workshops tdd# 1-800-345-2550 like identifying market trends. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 now, earn 300 commission-free online trades. call 1-888-628-2419 or go to schwab.com/trading to learn how. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 sharpen your instincts with market insight from schwab tdd# 1-800-345-2550 experts like liz ann sonders and randy frederick. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 get support and talk through your ideas with our tdd# 1-800-345-2550 trading specialists. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 all with no trade minimum. and only $8.95 a trade. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 open an account and earn 300 commission-free online trades.
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google does the robot. the search giant is buying boston dynamics which makes some of the coolest and yet creepiest robots we've seen. josh lipton, what exactly is the motive behind all of this? >> well, mandy, they look like creatures you're right out of a sci-fi thriller, robots that scale hillsides, jump over walls and now they do belong to google which just bought boston dynamics the company that makes those robots. big dog, a loud four legged terrier to march up hillsides, a youtube video of it has been watched 15 million times. pet man, a life like robot to balance itself and move freely, walks, bends, crouches, designed to test chemical protective clothing. sand flea, a robot to drive and jump 30 feet into the air to overcome obstacles.
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the new york times reported the acquisition it is the eighth robotics company googles has bought in the last six months. its robotics efforts led by andy ruben the executive who led the development of android. google isn't talking about the price of the acquisition or its purpose, but there are reports suggesting that google is targeting manufacturers like electronics assembly. i was talking to and said it does make sense for google to buy these companies, own the patents and decide how to deploy the technology. its rivals see the potential benefits of robots. amazon told us in the q3 earnings release, it's deploying about 1300 robots roaming its warehouses could save it around 900 million a year according to analysts. back to you. >> how do we read this? google's motto is don't be evil. most of us would agree robots inherently are evil machinesp. how do we square this?
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do we have any idea what their goal is? >> the reports are that maybe they're looking to innovate manufacturing, electronics, assembly, to get into that technology. listen there's certainly analysts, investors just like the fact that google does go for these moon shots, right? the big, bold ideas that sometimes seem sci-fi but to some people that's what they like about google it does stress and emphasize innovation and dynamic thinking and part of the bull case, what they like about the corporate culture whether it works in the long term. >> everyone should watch that movie with will smith called "irobot" from 2004 set in the year 2035 which is not that far away. >> or read the book of the same name or a roomba from a company known as irobot. >> lots of ways. >> josh, can you confirm you are human? >> i am right now. but listen robots -- >> eating -- >> i could be replaced quickly. we all could. >> don't say that again. josh, thank you very much.
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check this out, shares of facebook have nearly doubled this year. but can the social network climb even higher in 2014? let us bring in topeka capital markets victor anthony and vin from mccory research. they both have buy ratings on facebook. however, ben does have three concerns. ben, so you're not bearish on facebook by any means, your price target is a few bucks above where the stock is now. but you are a little worried about a few things. what are they? >> i think the main thing to be cautious on is execution. the company obviously has a lot of opportunities, a lot of markets they can enter but they need to make sure they can execute against the initiatives they launch on. >> victor, a buy with a 67 price target which you upped from 63. why are you feeling good about facebook going into next year? >> yeah. because i see three catalysts from the stock all will allow them to capture a larger slice of brand advertising dollars over the next year. and brand advertising has been
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its largely levered to television advertising which has been elusive, largely resilient in the face of internet threats over the past decade. modernization of instagram in 2014 and i see an opportunity for facebook to tap into advertising types of social tv. >> what's in a big way when you talk about the montization of instagr instagram? how many hundreds of millions of dollars of revenue? >> i'm conservatively modeling $20 million in revenues in 2014. i expect a slow ramp and aggressive -- slow ramp in the first half and aggressive ramp in the back half and roughly tripping revenues in 2015. a big opportunity for facebook and i think they'll jump into it in a massive way. >> ben, going deeper to the competitive threats, snap chat with a few hundred million active users, what's app with 200 million active users, we chat a similar service, mostly used in china, they've got 250
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million, facebook not as cool as it was and other services are gaining millions of users. how big of a threat is that if at all. >> i think it's a threat over time. we have to watch what they're doing, make sure they continue to execute. the fact that they are losing teens has been an issue. however, fortunately for them, many of them are going to instagram which they i think made a very nice move in buying not too long ago and at the time people were concerned it was not a smart acquisition. in hindsight they're doing the right things, pushing forward. but you have to watch competition. we have to make sure this suspect a replay of myspace and geo city and many things done in the past. >> we have to leave it there. victor and ben, thank you very much for joining us. talking of instagram, it has unveiled the most instagram cities for 2013. the big apple ranked number one. with bangkok and los angeles rounding out the top three. a cool stat, 60% of instagramers are outside of the united states. >> facebook better home for
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overseas growth. we chat and snap chat cutting into facebook's users and it's the young people that are migrating over, the young people, the advertisers covet in the demo when grandma gets on facebook, you get off. right? that's -- >> you don't want grandma seeing what you've been doing on friday night. >> grandma as the nsa. you're welcome. >> coming up next, the puffy coat ipo and uncle sam's christmas tree tax. >> not everybody is having the wrm and fuzzys after watching an airline's feel good pr stunt. this is a story of watch out, good deeds may go punished. stick around. [ male announcer ] my client gloria has a lot going on in her life. wife, mother, marathoner. but one day it's just gonna be james and her. so as their financial advisor, i'm helping them look at their complete financial picture -- even the money they've invested elsewhere -- to create a plan that can help weather all kinds of markets.
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this is one of most talked about feel good videos last week. canadian airline surprising passengers with gifts from their christmas list. now this stunt has backfired. phil lebeau, what is the big deal about this? >> it's not a huge deal but enough of a deal that a few people -- i've talked with a couple of them -- who have said, listen, i'm not sure this sends the right message.
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let's set the scene from west jet. what they did in late november, they had people on two flights going from toronto and hamilton out to calgary, about a four-hour flight. when they checked in, there was a santa screen and they were asked, what would you like for christmas? people answered, i want this, that. as they were flying out there, look what they got when they landed, not their baggings, what they asked for on the screen. it's an amazing five-minute video. i'm going to be quiet and let you take in a little built of it. ♪ >> no way! >> it really is, perhaps, one of the best corporate videos i've ever seen done. the problem is for some people they think it sends the wrong message that christmas is the season of giving and it shouldn't be about getting gifts. it should have been, you should ask to see the airline give to charity. when i brought this up to the
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airline, if you take a look at shares of wja, trade on the toronto stock exchange, when i brought this up to westjet they said, look, we're not here to make a corporate message. this was supposed to be fun. that's the only reason we did this. we put it out on youtube with our christmas videos in the past. do you know how many people have seen it so far? more than 27 million people. overwhelmingly, people love this video. >> this is the thing, they also said if they got over 200,000 views, and jane wells, welcome to the show, come in on the conversation as well, that they would donate flights, free flights to charities through ronald mcdonald house. >> they have. >> so, they were doing it in the name of xhaert. >> what a horrible thing they've done! they' >> they've donated flights to charity. >> shame on you. >> do you remember the old comic strip bloom county where everyone was offended by somebody and opus was left on the bench saying, offset
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sensitivity. everything is offended by everything. is this a case where four people were mad and now because of social media westjet has to say, we did it for fun? what a great thing they did. >> your attitude offends me. >> i'm offended euro fended. >> i asked people on twitter what westjet should have done. chased around and being beaten for being greedy. another one, they should have flown the -- flown in the critics and had them explain to the little boy why he wouldn't be getting the android tablet. >> one of the best things on that video is a guy who checks in and says, i don't know, i want socks and underwear. he think he's talking to a video screen. and he gets socks and underwear. >> how do they know who's on the plane? westjet is a discount airline. you don't have to be rich to fly westjet. maybe they are needy. they would be recipients of charity themselves. just because you fly doesn't mean you're burning hundreds.
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>> there was a picture of a woman who was crying when she got the digital camera. it was so touching. she was weeping. >> she got visine. >> there were limits too. there were a couple people who said, i'd like a car. they don't buy them a car. they bought them die-cast model cars. they said, here you go. there were limits. >> you know what i want? >> what do you want? >> more leg room. >> who are you telling? >> you know what i want -- >> you and mandy -- >> phil -- >> never mind. i had a lot of things going on in -- good job, westjet, by the way. up next, the big money battle of puffy coats. a cheap coat and expensive coat. i don't know which is which. i'll see if i can tell the difference. >> i'll tell you which one is the medium and extra small. that you can already tell. >> i'm offended that people are judged by the size of their legs. to help secure retirements and protect financial futures.
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>> you get to guess, yeah. you can guess. i mean, that was a hint. >> i'm going with jane's purple coat only because it's shinier. >> it is pretty shiny. it's puffier. >> actually, mandy is the montclair coat. that coat is the reason montclair has the most successful ipo in europe above $1 billion for the entire year. it was up 47% today in trading. the company is now worth $5 billion. you talk about a small fashion brand, that's a lot of money. this company is hot, hot, hot. >> i think the purple coat, the $30 knockoff looks better. >> i look like the michelin tire man. >> i mean, it has a more -- it has a more differentiating style. i'm not saying it's a better coat but it's just -- just looks cooler. >> again, i mean, women around the world are paying, you know, between $2,000 to $3,000 for these coats. they're very fitted.
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fashion icons. the question is if they can get out of coats into something else. monclaire, the margins are outrageous. >> when does miss sixty go public. >> the color of seat belt they ref refushed. >> this has to be filled with down, right? >> $1770 for a coat? come on. >> all of monclaire's coats are polyester and getting thousands -- >> polyester? what's the profit margin? >> the margins are huge. that's why investors love this thing. investors that got in, including carlisle group, is making millions perfo millions. >> italian ipo since 1990. and talking about hot, hot, hot, it is really hot.
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>> very slimming. >> let's go to the antarctic. i'm coming for you. i think this looks lovely. >> you are a thinner, funnier grima grimace. >> i'm offended by that. >> stay tuned, everybody. "closing bell" coming up next. and hello and welcome to the "closing bell" on this monday. i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. >> i'm bill griffeth. investors are concerned about the fed announcing a tapering this week. they meet on tuesday and wednesday. you couldn't tell it by the markets today. we've had a pretty good rally. this is this just a bounce from an oversold condition or are we actually seeing the somebody buying on the dip once again? is this the beginning of the santa claus rally? meanwhile, a lot of parts of the country not so optimistic about the stock market for 2014. a new poll showing most americans see the market flat or lower from currentel
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