tv Fast Money CNBC December 19, 2013 5:00pm-6:01pm EST
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we have a very special report from the palisades mall. >> the crowds are getting thicker as we speak. people are getting home and starting to shop. the crunch is on and we are doing lots of trading from the mall. and also, great gift, great stock. just because you buy it and put it under the tree doesn't mean it makes a great investment. >> i have got a lot of things you still need picked up. maybe during commercial breaks? >> i'll do you solid. i'll pick some up for you. fast money starts right now. we are live from the pal sides center mall. this is the last weekend to go shopping before christmas and tonight fast money will be focusing on investing in the consumer. crunch time with just days before the holiday. we have got the last minute investment plays to help you profit off of the shopping season. and we will be taking questions
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live from the mall rats. 40 million credit cards used in stores may have been breached. we have got the man who started the target credit card live on set. and find out why this may not be the biggest problem target has to worry about. facebook is selling 70 million shares. is it time for you to cash out of the social network? let's get straight to the top story. is the consumer flying high, too? which play could see a santa claus rally? guy, you spent the day here at the mall. >> valuations are stretched in names like tiffanys and kors, those are still where you want to be.
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i think it probably heads there. kors is probably rich there. didn't trade great trd. that's the way people spend, mastercard and visa. >> you had sold out of kors a long time ago and it's really rich now. tell guy why this stock is not interesting. >> merry christmas, by the way. >> having sold kors 40 points ago, they have done a tremendous job. i just find it so hard to get involved. >> and you like it because of china. >> they can grow in asia. they started this, this was a u.s. story four years ago. now 88%. they are moving abroad. they are moving into asia. quickly as asia and the luxury trade. when i think about emerging
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markets and when you think, you should be thinking about the movement of the consumer from the a class to the c class. people 45 and under. that's about 18%. it's a much younger luxury class. people like tiffany can continue to dominate because their multiple expansion in these places with margins where they are they can continue to grow at these levels. >> in terms of kors they are planning to open 125 new stores. that could be a kicker. you're looking at a name like macy's. and also look at valuations because everyone says macy's is cheap. walmart has a pe of 15 and macy's has a pe of 15. >> i would rather be in macy's because you get a mix of consumer. they have some high enld, they
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have macy's which is lower end and you have management that is absolutely best in class. walmart it's a little bit of a different story. i sold some because the position has gotten better. >> macy's is a volatile stock. here at 52 and change it feels like they want to make the next push. i think you saw the sell off. it recovered. feels like the next leg is higher. >> macy's is the cheapest major retail stock. >> all right. let's move on and talk nike. mixed reaction if the company beats earnings estimates by a penny. in terms of nike, talk to me about future orders. >> the future orders were quite positive accelerating versus last quarter.
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china remained positive at plus one. there was some concern that that would reflect back. another indication on trend there. the most important is the u.s. market. >> the most recent data points that we have gotten from under armor and adidas -- >> they are the largest basketball play. they are maintaining that dominant position at about 90% of the market. we don't see the top line in any sense there. >> talk about the relative
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duopoly on the shoe industry that nike and adidas have. that to me is why nike is stepping ahead because the valuation is better. >> right. right. the market agrees with you and nike's stock has out performed adidas over the last year. nike does have a much more of a position to maintain and increase prices. we look at the futures order. the pure play on that is adidas. >> a lot more expensive. >> yes, exactly. >> all right. we're going to leave it there. thank for your time. karen, what's the read there? you are in finish line as well as foot locker which sells nike products. >> nike is their biggest supplier for both.
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the u.s. business was so strong, that bodes a little better for finish line because they are only a u.s. business where foot locker has a uk exposure. a little bit of a revenue miss. >> now adidas is 35 times their current numbers and they are probably around 28 times. >> let's turn now to target, the company warning customers to check their credit card statements after a major breach that could have compromised information of customers who paid with credit and debit cards. we sent guy to ask target shoppers exactly how they feel about the data breach. take a listen.
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>> gloria, we were talking, 40 million credit and debit cards were compromised. did that scare you from shopping today? >> no. >> not at all? >> not at all. >> would you do anything differently? >> watch it more to make sure that nothing weird shows up on it. >> if you're swiping the store you should be able to trust the store. >> i guess at this point they already got my information. they know about my underwear purchases. >> i'm not scared. things happen. >> are you going to change your pin number from one, two, three, four? >> you know my pin number? >> boxer or brief? >> i'm boxer brief. comfort and style. >> let's bring in ceo. he is a former vice chairman of target.
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great to have you on the show. >> great to be here. >> it seems like all the shoppers that guy talked to didn't seem to think it was a very big deal. i think a lot of us consumers realize this is par for the course. >> this is not about one company. what this shows is our credit card -- this company is very sophistica sophisticated. the fact that the crooks were able to breach their security shows that basically nothing is totally safe. we should all be scared. >> you saw the reaction in the stock today. in terms of the cost of this, it seems like it wouldn't cost that much. that was a little bit more in terms of numbers of accounts breached. it is really pocket change. something like that would be pocket change for target. >> i don't know. i think most investors would dismiss that as a one time charge unless they thought there was something persistently wrong
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with the company. it's a huge company. this is not financially that big of an impact. >> we're obviously here at the mall. we have all walked around. there are sale signs everywhere already. and there is still six days. what do you make of the season? >> it's no secret. the season has been very slow. it was actually down last week. keeping in mind that the season is six days shorter which is almost 19% shorter every day should be up double didn'ts. >> let me ask you about the season being extended. we no longer think of it as just black friday through christmas. do you think we should be looking at the whole season? >> absolutely. we often see that the day after christmas is one of the biggest days of the year. this weekend is going to be
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massive, particularly saturday. we call it super saturday in retail. monday's going to be a huge day and the day after christmas is going to be massive and all of these days are going to have phenomenal deals for the customer which means low margin for the retailers. >> which would you be most optimistic about? >> the internet is up 20% day after day after day. so amazon, ebay, other internet retailers have really done well. any bricks and mortar retailer were also done very, very well. so we know that's going to be true. beyond -- now we're at the point now, this is the exciting thing. as of yesterday and today, you can no longer get free shipping at most websites. and pretty soon you are going to order it more this weekend and beyond are the pribricks and mor
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retailer's chance. >> thanks so much. this mall is huge. more than four levels and more than 200 stores. there is no way we could walk the whole thing ourselves today. we got some help. jane is finding some of the craziest gifts. >> this is an infinity light. it is the best $40 i have ever spent. it's happening in the kiosks. i'm scouring to find the best gifts specifically for you. have gotten a lot of suggestions on twitter including this. seems a little harsh. >> that's perfect for guy. >> to wear in front of guy? >> i think guy needs to wear that. he needs to be -- >> does it say i love you?
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>> i think it says i hate you. >> that's not in the holiday spirit. >> that's not a guy shirt. that's not in my holiday spirit. >> we will check in with jane throughout the show. we will tell you how the play the precious metal next. guy finds out what people are really doing at the mall today. and we have got the anti-mall trade for you next.
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>> welcome back to our very special show tonight. investing in the consumer. live from the palisades mall. we sent guy through the mall to see just how many shoppers have been buying online instead of in store. take a listen. >> you could be shopping online why are you here? >> i took my mom. >> i would rather see the thing and try it on.
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>> i can't deal with it. >> 50, 50. i did -- half of the things just got delivered and i'm finishing up today. >> i prefer the mall. numerous stores and the experience. >> have i been good this year? >> you have gotten better. >> you're a fast money fan. >> was santa limping after you sat on his lap? >> first of all, santa was a gentleman. >> i'm sure he was. that wasn't the question. >> i had to wait online for like an hour. let's go anti-mall trade. tim you're what everybody thinks of. >> you have to go to amazon. when you think about the story it's still year-over-year. this is where it's going.
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i would stick with it. >> when i think about the mall, i think physically about the mall. the mall owners. as excited as i am about retail, i don't think you can own -- really basically it's an interest rate play if you think we're ever going to see inflation. i think it's hard to get on board. >> the iyr, the dow jones read index? guy, you're going transport? >> you have to. yesterday, fedex comes out. disappointing quarter and guidance. all time highs once again.
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the tape clearly helped a lot. when the stock does what fedex is doing, it tells you that it want to go higher. margins seem to be improving in the right spaces. >> a bunch of upgrades here. >> let's look outside the mall. a public offering of 70 million of its common shares including more than 41 million being sold by mark zuckerberg. we said the move up to 55 got us right back to where we were. that the stock should pull back. i don't think this news is anything that important. but just in trading the stock i think it goes back down to 51.5, 452. >> got to talk about the yellow
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metal sinking to a three year low. where the support is for gold. >> you have to begin to look at gold in the context of where the fed was or where gold was before the fed took out their tool kit. somewhere around 9.25 is where gold was. i think the stock, i think gold goes to 1100 before you begin to see that test. that is where i would be trading from and not before. >> that was the support line. just quickly in terms of gold. the more pain that would force the gold miners to put on edgers again. >> tim has been spot on in gold for a long time. i think they find themselves in a huge problem in terms of do we hedge, do we stay put? the stocks have been cut in half. i think they are in board rooms talking do we hedge here or don't we? to your point, the first company
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that comes out and hedges, that might be the signal to buy. >> we are heading back out into the crowd for a little game we're calling great gifts, great stocks. does that mean you should buy the stock? plus, the taper is upon us so does that mean that housing can fight those impending rising rates? the ceo of ethan allen. stay tuned.
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company reporting earnings and sales that both beat analyst estimates. they also came out with their outlook for the current quarter sales. so overall the shares up about 11% in the aftermark. >> thank you very much. you know on fast money we love to play games. we're here at the mall. we should play a little game called great gift, great stock. we hit the crowds here. hi, jonathan. and you went to sketchers. what did you buy? >> i bought some sneakers for my daughter. this is what she wanted for christmas. >> they're very cute. twinkle toes sketchers. yeah. let's show the people. very adorable. >> they light up as well.
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>> they light up, too? guy, i know you like sneakers that light up. do you like sketchers, skx? >> thanks to josh brown. he got me a great pair of kicks that don't light up. sketchers was down today a couple percent. i think it could probably get up to 36 or 37. it's not ridiculously priced. i think you can own it okay right now. >> all right. thanks for sharing your gifts. hopefully we didn't blow it with your daughter here. great gift and great stock according to guy. so let's move on. we've got matthew. nice to meet you. you went to banana republic? >> yes. got a pea coat for my girlfriend. >> again, let's hope your girlfriend is not watching. >> hopefully not. i got a pea coat for my
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girlfriend. >> all right. karen, gps, what do you think? >> ultimately what i think with the gap is this a company that has a lot of pressure on the promotional side. this is a company that can actually improve and has operating leverage. it's one of the value plays in their space. i like the stock and i think 38 bucks has to hold and you stay away until 35. let's move on to lauren. you went to j.c. penney. >> i bought my boyfriend a reversible belt. he needs one. >> lots of options there. brown and black. karen? jcp. >> yeah, jcp, i know my mother
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said if you can't say something nice don't say anything at all. it looks better but the stock, it's low but still not cheap. it's pricing in recovery. if i had to say something really nice it's a lot better than sears. you got your answer. good luck with that gift. and thanks to all the participants. still ahead, best buy, the second best performer year to date. why one analyst is still pounding the table for 2014. plus jane wells is searching high and low all over this mall for the whackiest gifts. what did you find so far? >> well, i am exhausted already. i am on the carousel. most of what i have gotten has been self-gifting. i found the best leggings to go with the i hate you shirt. i have a little bit more to do but i'm having too much fun.
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>> we are live at the palisades mall. existing home sales fall to the lowest level in nearly a year. can the housing market fight the rising rates? joins us live from stanford. thanks for joining us. are you concerned at all about rates rising? >> there is always some concern but more important is the consumer confidence. the stock market is up. and i think our demographics is comfortable and i -- we can see that. they are interested in now more in decorating their homes.
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>> you did say that you're optimistic about the rest. what have you seen so far since you made those comments? >> we will all keep in mind that we have strong earnings growth. we also are comparing to very, very tough however, what we are really taking a look at is is maintaining our presence in the home. right now at this time of the holidays, we see that people are our real focus is in providing great, fantastic family rooms. people are going into their homes, they are redecorating. it's possible that new home sales may get lower but the
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interest in decorating and making their homes look great. in the next week or so we are really focused on the family room which means all kinds of so sofas and chairs and media and 70% of that we make right here in the united states. yes, you have had earnings growth and it's the time for people to decorate but in terms of getting the traffic in, you have reported that people were not using your decorating services. >> we have a very strong marketing campaign. i cannot make any my major financial comments but we have a very strong program. people are coming. we have 1500 interior designers.
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as we go forward, we are also going to have a major change in paradigm. starting january we will take a lot of great products and put them into inventory so we are now calling it on demand and custom. that's what you're going to see from ethan allen. >> got it. thank you so much for your time. appreciate it. >> obviously everything bottomed out. just looking at this stock, higher highs and higher lows. i think we are coming off of one of those higher lows so it feels like the next few dollars in the stock is higher. it's a pretty significant short interest. valuation is not that crazy. i think you're asking the right question about the last quarter.
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>> i think the valuation is probably the hole up. one of the things they are doing is they are growing internationally. these are places where i think they can grow. i like that. good growth. >> some high volume in a lot of names. >> we saw some unusual volume. earth link saw about six times its average daily options volume up. and go go internet saw about two times its average daily volume. this is a name that is seeing some unusual activity. we saw a lot of bullish activity. and then again, on december 12, we saw some bullish activity and the stock again was up double
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digits in terms of percentages. the lock up has expired. i think this will probably keep a lid on the stock. what they were doing is selling the january 29 calls. they think the stock is going to hold below that level. >> more options actions every friday and check out our website. coming up, you know what? time is running out for jane wells. >> and all of us. >> so she has to reveal the whackiest gifts she has found for our crew. and we're surrounded by stocks from retailers to restaurants. we're trading the palisades mall next on fast. [ indistinct shouting ]
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>> time to trade the mall. some of the big box names. we will start off with a couple of teen retailers, american eagle and abercrombie & fitch. this is a name we have not looked at until recently. i think there is a catalyst here. you have engaged capital. you have a shareholder base that is really upset with the performance of stock and management i think he improves business or there is change. you have three ways to win in the stock. i think we will have a floor under it until the there is resolution. next up, restoration hardware.
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>> this is one i think my wife is single handedly trying to drive a fourth quarter beat. >> you're officially in the dog house. >> she deserves lovely things from restoration hardware. the good news is the atortment is growing and eps is expected. the street is very aggressive. takes earnings to about six bucks a share. >> you liked eshan allen. can you like both? does one hurt the other? >> no. there is a place for both of them. i think evan allen looks actually somewhated that been knocked down a peg and starts to
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look interesting here. >> guy loves a good endless possible? >> listen, a great one for tim to get out of the dog house, to take his growing family to red lobster. the problem is he would be the only one there. the comps from beener theial they really came out margins going down. a lot of people buy this stock. that's not the reason to own this stock. they seem to be a deteriorating business. a lot of folks are negative on management. at 45 you can own it. you can't own it here at 51 and change. >> christmas dinner. why don't we finish up the shopping christmas eve and go to red lobster. we'll call it a day. >> best buy is the second best
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performing stock year to date. since march of 2012 it has been up 65%. dave, a great call by you. year to date the stock is up 253%. what brings it higher next year? >> what happened was so misvalued. next year it's still in some of the retail landscape one of the cheaper options out there. with an opportunity here. this is saturn around. the earnings numbers will accelerate. >> they already talked about transformation and closing a number of stores, focusing on mobile kiosk. what are the levers they can bull?
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>> they are in the process of taking a lot of sg and a out of the company. a lot of opportunity on the gross margin side as well as from a return standpoint. there's a lot of opportunities for them on the expense side. after being somewhat of a share neutral to share loser they have been gaining shares in tv and aflinss. they're the only national player out there where you can get a lot of product. put your trader hat on. i think when you made the call the stock was 18 give or take it has obviously had a huge move sense. let me ask you this. can this stock pull back to the low 30s and you still be right?
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is there a responsible that the run has been much too fast? >> you're probably a better call than that. it's a big run. you can see some profit taking. i think the quarter is going pretty well. that's in their favor. it could. if you're looking two years out it is significant earnings growth, making it look like a real cheap stock. and i just, i missed it like a ten zers move. one of the cheapest stocks in rekale and also some exciting fundamentals. >> david, great to have you on. great call. we will see you at 2014, best
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buy top up pick. we are not done yet. that is coming up next on fast. and jane will come back with her whacky gifts. stay tuned. americans take care of business. they always have. they always will. that's why you take charge of your future. your retirement. ♪ ameriprise advisors can help you like they've helped millions of others. listening, planning, working one on one. to help you retire your way... with confidence. that's what ameriprise financial does. that's what they can do with you. ameriprise financial. more within reach. [ male announcer ] how could a luminous protein in jellyfish, impact life expectancy in the u.s.,
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>> in case you missed some of today's top moments, here is a rapid fire recap in tonight's executive edge. >> when stores depend upon low margins or promotions, they train their customers, it leaves us with a battle on margin. >> you see sales up 1 to 2% overall. they have driven. i think they have driven the online portion of that business. >> we used to be 85% food
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storage. we're 25%. they are gourmet products. you're a busy working woman. you don't have time and don't want to cook? >> it's improving pretty modestly. i think there is a lot of bullishness, which feeds on itself. the real world is moving ahead. but, it's not barrelling ahead. >> all right. i have a poen to pick here. the up ttupperware comment? you're a busy working woman and you don't want to cook? >> you want to heat something up. >> i'm a busy working man. >> you might use a tupperware
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container. >> we have talked about this before. >> the stock and the products. earlier in the show we send jane wells on a mission to find the whackiest gifts you could find. jane what did you find? i'm going to go store by store. i know you have the as seen on tv store you can always get the best gifts. you have such nice hair. >> this is perfect. >> now you don't have to go to a salon for all of that. >> i can cut, vacuum and style at the same time? >> since guy just turned 50, we got him the instant slim slimming t shirt.
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>> you should see him without it. >> these are manx. >> melissa, you are so hard to shop for. it's a toe brush holder. yours is better. since you have kids you got my favorite gift. i have some of this myself. >> what is it? >> we just got a dog. urine gone. >> karen is a new bet owner. >> i'm sure. or people or accidents. that's fantastic. >> so then also we went to j.c. penney. this is for guy. it's called sauce.
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as you get older that's an issue. >> melissa, tea for two. you don't need two cups for that special person. >> just one. >> there you go. very romantic. i know how much you're into retail. this was 40% off, karen. >> i just wan that kiss you. >> thank you. >> come on in. tim, gets another present. guy's birthday. i know how much you like -- this is like a google thing. >> it's a nerf. >> does that shoot darts? >> it does. >> my god. >> do you know what you're doing? >> you're going to need that to protect you. >> this is what? $180. 129 bucks. this is for you. >> i don't know what to say. >> best christmas ever. >> who wants the i hate you shirt? >> guy. >> guy. >> oh!
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>> i take back everything. >> what do we do? shoot this for me. >> be careful. >> you know, you need an app. we tried to get it working. >> you need an app? >> we tried the demo in the store. >> that's why it is so cheap. >> they let me have it for nothing so i gave it to you. >> so what happened to the i hate you t shirt? >> it's right here. >> she's trapped. >> easy. easy. >> that flobie is going to save tim about $800. >> i think it is self gifting. >> this is the best christmas ever. >> that was fantastic. same thing. we got your first move tomorrow when we come right back. >> thank you, jane.
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>> time now for the final trade. let's go around the horn. tim? >> restoration hardware. sentiment will get better. >> karen? >> having absolutely nothing to do with the mall. still like it. building position. >> guy? >> tim, it's dangerous. st. jude medical got an upgrade. stj. >> and in case you haven't noticed we are all enjoying the nice gifts that jane provided us today. all right. we would like to thank the palisades center mall for hosting us and thanks to all the people here who welcomed us here to the mall. see you tomorrow for more fast. stay tuned.
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my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to educate you, but to entertain you so call me at 800-743-cnbc. what's not too late to buy? what hasn't left the station yet? >> all aboard! >> what do we bid off when it
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