tv Mad Money CNBC December 19, 2013 11:00pm-12:01am EST
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you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the mid-size price. (natalie) ooooh, i like your style. (vo) so do we, business pro. so do we. go national. go like a pro. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to entertain you, but to educate you so call me at 800-743-cnbc. what's not too late to buy? what hasn't left the station yet? >> all aboard! >> all aboard!
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>> what do we bid on when the market comes in from the auction or because there's too much profit not to take something off the table. what can you still sink your teeth into? as the averages barely budget, dow up 11, s&p slipping to .06%, that's 9%, and even after years and years of managing money in some form or other, these questions swirl through my head as i look over today's action after a big up day yesterday. it is always like this, the big rally, the consolidation, trying to pick what can still move and making sure that you won't buy something that won't be able to will rally because it's just plain bad. now we had a momentum market going here, meaning investors are chasing what's hot and if you don't mind buying high, there's plenty to choose from. it is just ramping and hey, you can buy netflix, amazon. the two sainted stocks that don't need to show earnings as they're all about the love of
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their customers. you can use the big secondary offering from facebook, and 41 million shares from founder mark zuckerberg to start a new position, although judging by how little the stock retreated today, off 52 cents for heaven's sake, you may get a better price now than on the actual pricing of the secondary. you can go after the rip snorting industrials, boeing and 3ms all of which have moved gigantically in the last few weeks and in the momentum-driven market that means nothing. you can knock yourself out and go buy twitter, the most beloved stock of all. i can't understand any of these ideas. there are only a few days left in the year and all of those are fertile ground for trades. you can buy deep in the money call options. you can just swoop in right now. >> buy, buy, buy! betting that the big boys will come in next and take you out of the higher price. given that the fed's pronouncements are out of the way and it is all quiet on the washington front. ♪ i'm blessing these trades with
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some quick capital gains, for trades, and if i was still running the hedge fund. however, those are not the kinds of ideas that i'm referring to. what i'm asking about here and mulling over is what's been left behind of late? what's cheap after the rally smoke clears? what's been ignored lately, and didn't participate in this part of the rally? i see five sectors that make sense, even after this run. five sectors that you can buy, that unlike momentum chasing, would not require a violation of discipline and a refutation of all rigor. first, it's the banks. if the fed is being taken at face value and i want to take the fed at face value, there will be no increase about banks can pay on cds, and they can deposit dollars and treasuries that make them much more money than what they pay out to you. and you can lend the money out to commercial real estate people or to small businesses that now because washington is out of the picture and has the confidence
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to expand. it's a good time for the banks. the much-needed witch hunts are winding down. they built up so much capital that even the most conservative regulators have to be returning to the shareholders in the form of dividends or buybacks. those banks have way too many shares outstanding and the natural one to buy and the natural group is bank of america, because it still isn't back to where it was a couple of years ago after the crash. technicians, take note. bank of america's chart, it's a picasso in the waiting. second undervaluation, housing! yesterday lennar, symbol len, the market liked what it heard, which is interesting considering when toll brothers wasn't all that different, if the market didn't like what it heard from toll at all and that stocks have been down. what's changed? lennar told a compelling story that said, look, the federal reserve has won. home prices were going up too much, too quickly and now they've cooled and while demand has stayed persistent, inconsistent and supply is falling behind. the imbalance remains and the land of the homes to meet the demand imbalance in the key markets and there was a terrific compelling story that will make
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a lot of money for a home in the coming years. that thesis allows the conventional price to earnings multiple and analysis to at last come into play for the home builder. for two years the home building stocks were way ahead of themselves and they had the earnings power and the company has growth characteristics and margin improvement possibilities that are better than the s&p, and that's how you always figured out that's the better than and worse than, and it's not a stretch to see it head into the 40s and the $37 perch that it closed at. gun slinger, take note. you will want to buy d.h. horton and pulte home and weyerhauser the timber company that is behind the market. i say go with lennar and it's clean and we make an appropriate decision because it just reported. third group is retail. the retail sector's done nothing for several months now and everyone's been so worried about the holiday season. i'm not. i say enough already, time to circle back to macy's letter m,
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to gamestop. i know they said november was not so good, but think about the games coming out next year, and best buy, this is the gadget christmas. time to pick up v.f. corp that has had a windfall from all of the cold weather as north face sales have been on fire. we know from ceo frank blake that home depot is doing fabulously, yes, pvh was on squawk this morning. i thought he sounded outright bullish. chirico stood here and he said the holiday season is good. the stock's done nothing. that's an opportunity. finally, groups 4 and 5. oil and the airlines. they're supposed to go in opposite directions. i think both are now so cheap that they might be able to separate themselves from each other and both go higher. the market has pretty much
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warren buffet bought exxon it's the only thing worth owning. the market was to make a judgement that domestic oils have had their day and it's time to move on. i think that's ridiculous. if the economy is coming back as bernanke told you it is and then oil will go higher and not lower. there will be great demand and there are repositories of oil, conoco, aig, and day rates for oil rigs come down and they witnessed the hideous action in ens i co yesterday and today after putting up really bad numbers and the global prices is what drives schlumberger and not the gulf of mexico price, and i think these two worked their way higher and were buying it for the charitable trust, pending the move to spin off its equipment distribution business in order to unlock shareholder value. it's stayed subdued. i think you can easily buy the airlines. you know what? the airlines after being red hot for most of the year, i mean, really just fantastically hot, have cooled. they've stalled out. we now have the completion of the american airlines/us airways deal and the stock's only at 25 bucks. you know what? that's radically undervalued
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versus next year's prospects. the airlines are acting as if oil is going higher and the oil stocks are acting as if it's going down. i say who cares? they reflect radically lower oil prices that i don't think we are going to get. the airlines will soar if we get those prices, but they could rally either way. they've moved, but not of late, and they sat out the burst. same with the oils and these are the natural places to go and i have good ones for you later in the show. so here's the bottom line. oh, yeah, yesterday we had a real big run, but not everything participated. i think you can come in right now, right here, and buy the banks, housing, retail, airlines and oil without much risk and a ton of reward. those are the stocks that i bet will work in the next phase of the rally. the phase that begins when we turn the page on the calendar nine business days from now. harry in maryland. harry? >> boo-yah! happy holidays to you.
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my wife is an avid follower, my question to you is since mastercard is splitting ten for one, and i do own visa, which one of the two would you recommend to buy? >> okay. so here's the discussion. today i was going with the co-portfolio of my charitable trust, and i said we got to buy this visa. we've got to buy visa. we've got to buy visa because visa is falling behind mastercard and it's every bit as good. and what are we going sell? i don't know. visa is better than mastercard. time to make the swap out of mastercard and into visa, even though i'm aware it went up 22 points. mastercard is too far ahead from letter v. how about will in wisconsin? >> jim, boo-yah from kenosha, wisconsin. >> good to have you on the show. >> i've been listening to you since the kudlow and cramer days. >> wow! that's ancient. >> it seems like you're an old friend. >> thank you. that's very nice. thank you. thank you. i'm glad. we've got to get out to wisconsin. they love us there. they love us there. what's up? >> i've been holding shares of
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standard pacific, spf, for a couple of years now based on an old recommendation from you. >> right. >> and i was wondering if your thoughts on selling it to the end of the year -- >> no! no, no, listen, i thought you were my friend, will! you want to be in standard pacific. that stock can go to ten. the california market's red hot and don't forget toll brothers just expanded out there. spf is going higher not lower. i say buy, not sell. whenever i call a friend i'll think of will. yes. there are still quality names to buy. yes, there are, in the banking industry and the housing industry and the retail industry, the airlines and the oils. winners are still there. you don't have to just buy them for a trade, you can buy them for an investment. stay with cramer. coming up, prosperity playbook. the market may have ups and downs, but the long-term trends driving our economy could help you set yourself up for a
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profitable new year. cramer reveals his favorites for 2014, next. and later, i-stock? skip the rat race at the mall. cramer's got more high quality companies to stuff your stockings with for a happy new year. tonight it may already be under the tree but will apple's stock be on cramer's naughty and nice list. plus christmas in the capitol? washington provided its own present ahead of the holidays, when it pushed through a budget deal this week and it could pay you dividends with $17 billion flowing to the streets, cramer's paving a path to a bull market on the open roads. all coming up on "mad money." don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @jimcramer on twitter. have a question? tweet cramer, #madtweets. send jim an email to madmoney@cnbc.com or give us a
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as the new year approaches, we're thinking about the big picture long-term themes. ones i believe will produce bountiful gains not just in 2014, but 2015 and maybe even for the next five years. specifically, two of my favorite themes that are built to last. this is something i devoted an entire chapter in my soon to be released book "get rich carefully," because it can identify the right themes or mega trends, whatever you want to call them to make serious money in the stock market. don't get me wrong. the stocks that ride the major themes, they can and they do go lower. they get hit all of the time, the difference is that you can confidently fall back on the big picture stories when times get tough. you can buy without fear because you know the long-term story is still there. we're not trading, people. i talk about seven big picture
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themes in "get rich carefully" and because i want you to buy the book or preorder because it doesn't come out until december 31st. it's important for me to give you a sneak preview, a sneak peek at two themes and the best way to play them. specifically the four horsemen of the big pharma apocalypse and the north american oil and gas revolution. if you watch the show every morning and tape it and watch it again and tape the podcasts and do it online and read me everywhere you might have heard of these themes, otherwise, you probably haven't. first, the four horsemen of the big pharma apocalypse. now, here's this as the situation. the big pharmaceutical companies, they aren't going to do anything like an armageddon-type situation, but they're no longer the fast-growing hotbeds of innovation they were when i first broke in the business in the 1980s, where they used to go up the way biotech does now. these days that mantle has been passed to biotech, and the major biotech companies are providing the kind of growth that we used to expect from the likes of merck, pfizer and glaxo smithklein and eli lilly in
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their heyday. i'm always willing to recommend small speculative biotech stock names. i don't mind that, but you want to have a safer way to play this thing, you need to look at the four major biotech companies that become the logical heirs to the old line household name, pharmaceutical stocks and the ones leading the revolution, hence why i call them the four horsemen of the big pharma apocalypse. and they are celgene, gilead, biogen idec and regeneron. all four of these stocks have had amazing runs this year. i'm well aware of that and i've been recommending them aggressively for a long time on the show. i think they're fantastic. celgene is basically a three-legged stool of innovative drugs. first one is made of the multiple myeloma franchise, which is a derivative of a poison. a poisonous drug. this drug has a lot of room to grow, particularly in europe. the second leg is called
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apraxame. this is a potential blockbuster oncology drug that's approved for breast cancer and non-small cell lung cancer. celgene is seeking approval for pancreatic cancer. we know how difficult that one is, and metastatic melanoma, as well. the third leg is one no one's talking about, which is an immunology and inflammation drug that's still in development, which i think could be a breakout drug for rheumatoid arthritis, where there really is nothing good out there. plus celgene sells for 23% growth rate and it's ridiculous. if you look at 2013 and 2016. gilead asked for time in the premiere maker of hiv drugs which transformed it from a death sentence to an albeit manageable life long condition. it's getting its hands on the hepatitis c drug candidates that are miles ahead of the current standard of care, with much higher rates of actually curing the disease.
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gilead just got fda approval for the main hep-c drug earlier this month, and i think it's going to be huge. don't get me wrong. this company has a terrific pipeline with cancer treatments that are definitely not in the stock price. people are only looking at the hiv and the hep-c. biogen idec's bread and butter is multiple sclerosis which has three major drugs of the awfully chronic condition and the recently approved federa that can be taken as a pill rather than an injection. the non-hodgkin's, lymphoma and they have a terrific looking hemophilia franchise. as for regeneron, the incredible move here is all about ilea. that's the company's breakthrough treatment for age-related macular degeneration, a huge disease, and they're studying a host of other conditions.
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regeneron is a separate drug and it's for bowel cancer and the research and development machine of this company and the terrific treatment for super high cholesterol in phase 3 development which has the potential to be a major blockbuster. i can't wait, and i can't take the statins and now for the second thing and the oil and gas revolution, you know we're finding incredible amounts of oil in this country for continental energy independence by maybe as soon as 2018 and that's continental and it includes canada and mexico. the bakken eagleford and the utica, marcellus and the utica, marcellus and the permian basin and all of the ways our companies are profiting from these resources. tonight i want to focus four ways to playing the revolution going into 2014, three exploration names and a major drill equipmentmaker. you can't go wrong with eog resources even though mark papa said that maybe the easy money has been made and that hurt the stock very much, but eog has assets all across north america and it's the king of the eagle ford shale in texas, a play that's overflowing with oil.
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this year the company is on track to increase its oil production at a 39% clip. that's amazing and that is high-energy growth and then there's noble energy, nbl, another company that's in many of the domestic oil shales, particularly the niobrara in colorado, and it's right near denver and that's where some of the best acreage could be found. plus it has a stake on the largest natural gas field on earth. it's called the leviathan off the coast of israel and natural gas that can be sold to europe where russia has had an energy stranglehold on the continent, let's not forget this ukraine issue. you want to be tied into the russians? you want independence. noble gives you that, and it gives you production guidance, earlier this month at an analyst meeting and no one cares because we're in the throws of a negative period. i like lynn energy, another charitable trust name, which you can own either as a master limited partnership that trades under the symbol line, l-i-n-e or under the name lynnco, lnco. either way you get 10%, and
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lynnco is less complicated from the tax perspective and the company just completed the acquisition of petroleum a couple of days ago and that gives it a much more oily basis that has more natural gas. last but not least, look at national oil well varco, symbol nov, and that's the leading maker of oil rig equipment and 60% market maker that we own for the charitable trust. really bad and a laggard. it's up just 13.8% in 2013 and that's disappointing, but i like the company going forward. the high price of oil around the globe, not just the domestic part of the united states, gives national oil well a fountain of orders and they'll see accelerated earnings growth next year. nov is spinning off the distribution business in order to unlock value, so here's the bottom line. you can always fall back on big long-term themes like biotech and the domestic oil and gas revolution. that's what i like to do. i like celgene, gilead, biogen idec, regeneron for the
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all week in recognition of the fact that christmas is just around the bend, i've been giving you a terrific list of stocking stuffers, publicly-traded companies that would make fabulous gifts for your loved ones particularly for your children which you know i think is very important. i like to think of these names as the real gifts that keep on giving because thanks to powerful long-term stories these stocks have the potential to rocket higher, year after year. teach your kids the value of investing in general and stock picking in particular. that's why i'm only highlighting my absolute favorite stocks for this series, the ones i like so much that we own them for my charitable trust, which you can follow along on the newsletter that you subscribe to, to learn more about the stocks that i recommend. we've already gift wrapped general electric and johnson controls, down today, i thought that was a mistake. we put a bow on google and can't get enough on that one, and bank of america and paid sienna and
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xilinx off badly today, i think mistakenly, under the tree. without further ado, let me give you the next stocking stuffers. we'll start with apple. what can i say about apple? the stock is up less tan 3% for 2013 and the stock is up 25%, but apple bottomed over the summer when it dropped under $400 briefly. and since then the stock has come roaring back. i think apple could be an incredible holiday play for this year. i think the numbers are way too conservative. i think the stock is ridiculously cheap and if you buy it here you're still benefitting from low expectations, too low in my opinion. beating expectations is the quickest way to drive the stock higher. with demands for the iphone 5s or the ipad air all which sport an excellent new operating system and the software is way ahead of the competition and i think the company can give sales a nice boost and despite the fretting, apple hasn't lost its edge in creating high-quality, elegant, functional devices that we'd like to get under our
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christmas trees, and the software behind the iphone operating system has taken the phone to a whole new level, which you would recognize by the way within five minutes or updating the software on the older one as i did, but most important to the story are the gross margins. for years now there have been concerns about apple's margins eroding thanks to formal competition from the likes of samsung, backed by the android operating system, and i think we could see some margin upside thanks to the strong initial demand for the higher-priced iphone 5s. how about after the holidays? what happens? in the medium term, i think this deal with china mobile, the world's largest wireless provider, could be a huge positive for apple and will get done. yesterday we learned apple and china mobile are still in talks and something the journal said pretty much was a done deal, and i think the people running apple would screw up this opportunity and idiots they are not and it would give -- apple may not have anything, omg in the immediate pipeline, which you know has
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been a concern of mine. that's what i've been worried about. but, next year the company's releasing the largest iphone 6 that will come in two sizes as well as the larger, more powerful ipad, the ipad pro with the television product down the road and my birthday's in february if you want to get me one. these new product launches should give its margins a meaningful boost, too. so not only does apple have a lot going for it including a vast amount of cash as interest rates rise, if you haven't thought of that, but apple, the stock is super cheap. back out to cash. apple trades at nearly nine times next year's earnings estimates, which is well below the 14% long-term growth rate and its historical price to earnings multiple of 14 times forward earnings. plus the stock has a 2.2% yield and there's plenty of cash to boost the dividend, and it trades back in line with the historical average, and guess what? it would be 55% higher than where it went out today. you know what? i think a stock that could rebound like crazy in 2014, a
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stocking stuffer that is real down so low that it's looking up to me. i'm talking about caterpillar, the largest maker of construction equipment in the world, as well as the leading maker of diesel engines and turbines and a rare dow component that's actually down for the year. it is off 2.3%. oh, man! >> sell, sell, sell! >> now before you start thinking i'm loco for recommending this big earth moving company which keeps missing numbers and has month after month of down retail sales including numbers just released for november last night, let me explain, one of the main reasons my charitable trust owns caterpillar is the stock is despised. the catcall, it's incredible. >> sell, sell, sell, sell, sell! >> the company has made a lot of missteps in recent years to the point that it is absolutely loathed on wall street. of the 28 analysts who covered it, ten rate it a buy, 17 sell, and the 17 fence sitters are far from positive about the company. >> the house of pain! >> the ceo's track record when
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it comes to the timing and global demand has now been shoddy over several quarters. he was in the running for herb greenberg's worst ceo of the year. i remember when herb was on street signs today and then there were two acquisitions that caterpillar made and they were horrendous. a sky high takeover of bucyrus, right at the top of the mining cycle and the ludicrous purchase of the chinese mining equipment company that proved to be pretty much of a fraud, requiring a massive write-off. you have to be careful when you use the word fraud except for when there's fraud. i recognize that caterpillar is not as sleek and well oiled as one of its machines, but, and i think this is a big but, it's been baked into the stuff. the stock has been cut in half and cat is only up 1% over the last two years. a period when the market has been on fire and in short, caterpillar has indeed been a real dog. however, i think this could be one of those where every dog has its day moments. first of all, cat has come down to the point where bad news has
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no effect on the stock anymore, like the november sales. the stock didn't even blink, yet it's just expected as a matter of course, and that is a crucial ingredient when a stock is bottoming. nobody cares. parts of cat's business are now starting to recover, particularly in the power systems segment and i think people expect very little upside, which means anything positive could really move the needle here. going into 2014, it could earn $7 to $9 per share. those numbers have been slashed and it now looks like it's at $9.50 a share. let's look forward to 2014. not much has to go right for cat to earn $6 a share. if the company can rack up 6% to 7% growth in its construction and power systems segment, that shouldn't be so hard given that commercial construction looks to be turning in the country and turning hard, and if cat can simply contain the declines in its resources division, that
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will be hard, down 7% to 8%. i think it's possible because caterpillar's curtailed production dramatically and the company can hit the $6 per share earnings per year and on that figure even though it was one that was sliced to, guess what? i think the stock vaults much, much higher. >> buy, buy, buy! >> caterpillar is slashing costs left and right. it cut operating costs by $5 billion. that's pretty amazing. they got that right. they laid off 13,000 workers and slashed their research and development budget by 15%. i think it's possible that caterpillar lowers its forecast again when it reports at the end of january, but if it announces an additional restructuring, the company has $6.4 billion in cash and the balance sheet wouldn't surprise me at all. right now the stock trades at 87 and change and i can see it going to $100. in my soon to be released book get rich carefully, i recall the identical scenario that actually occurred a couple of weeks ago as cat's stock bottomed even as the numbers kept being sliced,
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and then it roared on the first good numbers. >> house of pleasure. >> i think history repeats itself. here's the bottom line, if you prefer laggard stocking stuffers that have a lot of catching up to do, i've got two of them for you. i think you should be considering caterpillar and apple. i think the future is brighter for these two companies than anybody wants to admit, and it's time to bet against the negativeness with these two stocking stuffers before the holiday's over and the new year begins. can i go to michael in new jersey. mike, mike, mike! >> boo-yah, professor. >> well, thank you. >> merry christmas and happy new year. >> same. >> i have a question about aruba networks. >> ooh! >> what to do with this? >> as soon as someone hears something like that they think of cisco. anything with an affiliation with cisco.
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even crisco, anything that comes near cisco goes down. i think arun it is part of that even though it isn't, even though it shouldn't be. santa, baby. i've got stocks under your tree. cci, what an opportunity. ge did nothing. google, yeah, i know, it's fine, but i don't mind it. bank of america up big yesterday and kind of cool today. these are all great stocking stuffers and let's add to them. ciena down a dollar today and i want to be a buyer and caterpillar, which is too cheap on 2014 earnings last, and last, but certainly not least, i like apple. don't move. lightning round is next. from our family to yours. happy holidays, cramerica. peace and prosperity from all of us here at "mad money." [ male announcer ] for every late night, every weekend worked, every idea sold... ♪ ...you deserve a cadillac,
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it is time -- it is time for the lightning round on cramer's "mad money." rapid fire calls. [ indiscernible ] play until we hear this sound and then the lightning round is over, are you ready, skee-daddy? we start with donna in texas. donna. >> skee-daddy. >> yo, yo! >> happy santa, daddy. >> i like that.
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>> thanks. boise cascade. >> oh, real good. boise cascade is real good. i got to tell you something, it's now smoothed so much that i think weyerhaeuser is less expensive after the dollar move the other day. let's go to eugene in illinois. eugene? >> boo-yah, jim! >> boo-yah! >> what have you got for me? >> emc. >> emc, let's see. emc, i think emc will have an okay quarter. i got to admit i thought oracle would have an okay quarter but i still think emc doesn't have a lot of upside and i would not be a buyer of emc. let's go to andrew in texas. andrew. >> boo-yah, jim. thank you for taking my call. >> my pleasure. >> hls. >> very controversial story because ackman is shorting it. he's a hedge fund manager and bill, who was a man i revered from the food industry, has been buying it back down. i don't want to be short
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herbalife, and i want to be long and herb greenberg has covered it well as has my friend scott wapner. mark, mark, mark. >> a big badger boo-yah to you, jim. should i hang on to cypress semiconductor. >> mad point over the many years rather than just the many months, t.j. has made you a lot of money, and i'm sticking with t.j. and i don't care how many times you slag me @jimcramer on twitter and that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the lightning round! the lightning round is sponsored by t.d. ameritrade.
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looking ahead and gazing into the crystal ball i can spot a major new theme developing that could deliver truly explosive gains in 2014, one that i've not talked about at all. one word, rocks. more specifically aggregates and cement, the kind of materials that we use to build roads. the last big highway bill
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expired in 2009, and washington in its infinite laziness and stupidity couldn't pass a few one until june of ;ast year. so if this highway bill passed more than 18 months ago why the heck did i wait until now to talk about it? because it takes time for this legislation to take effect and more importantly, it takes time for the money to flow down to the companies involved in the road building business. there's always a lag between appropriations in washington and natural outlays in the real world. now the new highway bill authorized $24 billion on roads and bridges per year and that money is finally flowing again. how do i know? trailing 12-month highway awards were still declining, and fast forward to this past october and we saw a 9% year over year increase, and these highway contract awards are usually a leading indicator for the business of building and maintaining roads. on top of that there was a pretty major change in last year's highway bill which is just beginning to be filled. ever since 1998, the government
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has run a program billed tifia, which stands for transportation infrastructure finance and innovation act. this is a federal loan program that's designed to spur investment in infrastructure. until the new bill, it was funded at $122 million a year. ten times leverage. now, under the new highway bill, tafia is funded to the tune of $750 million. this year, one billion in 2014 and that translates to in 2014 infrastructure of loans and since the funds for these programs are only allowed to finance 50% of a given project, and the supported projects this year and 20 billion next year. small change, but not for this industry. at the same time, this is really important. individual states are also increasing their efforts to raise funds so that they can pay for their own infrastructure repairs and improvements. the age of state level austerity seems to be coming to an end as it's easier to get elected on
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the governmental platform and job creation infrastructure projects and plus non-residential construction is coming back in a major way. they were the first ones to tell us what a great stock that is, and that's another huge end market for the companies that make aggregates. plus, we know from listening to the recent home building conference calls that new communities are being built at a pace we haven't seen in ages. we got that from lennar and toll and that means plenty of new streets that cite the houses on and how do you have the impending boom in home building. the first one is off the wall. it's cemex. that's the mexican company that's the third largest on earth and the number one maker of concrete and it stumbled and now it's back. its most important markets are mexico, united states, uk and spain. these are all on the rebound. the company completed a restructuring and that has dramatically strengthened in the balance sheet. the thing about cemex is it's only 21% in the united states. our country is only one piece of the pie for them and this part of the business is in terrific shape. the company had its best quarter
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for u.s. revenue since 2008. when you buy the stock, you're mostly betting on potential turnarounds in mexico, europe and i believe in both. mexico accounts for 40% of cemex's business. it's been tough for the last couple of years and i think it could experience a dramatic comeback in 2014. the reason? very forward-looking new president. mexico's got this guy, enrique pena nieto, he took over a year ago. he's targeting increased spending versus its predecessor and that alone should be a huge boom for cemex, but pena nieto is making major reforms to allow private investment in the mexican oil and gas industry, pemex, which just passed earlier this week. the mexican economy could start picking up, terrific for cemex. cx gets 28% of its sales from northern europe, and we know that northern european companies
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and spain has rebounded, too. right now the consensus on wall street is they'll lose a penny per share. i wouldn't let that discourage you. with this kind of cyclical story, you have to buy the stock now before the turn is apparent. to everyone and the analysts are raising their estimate aggressively and that's the way these kinds of stocks work. second, vulcan materials, vmc, which is the go-to stock whenever you hear about highway spending, as they're the biggest producer of construction and aggregates in america, as well as being a significant producer of cement. i think vulcan is the best pure play on u.s. construction and they never recovered from the great recession. in 2007 this stock traded as high as $121. the stock currently at $57 and it's still 53% below its all-time highs. however, as i mentioned before, highway spending and non-residential construction are picking up in this country and that's fabulous news for vulcan.
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there are two domestic plays and vulcan and martin murrieta. i prefer murrieta materials and i prefer vulcan here because it's the higher risk, but higher reward name and with the recovery in the biggest end markets, i think it's got the most upside. beyond that, vulcan materials has superior geography that matters to this business. the company has a lot of exposure to areas that should grow much faster than the united states in general, particularly california and arizona where murrieta has no presence at all as well as florida where vulcan produces aggregates locally, giving them a much greater edge versus the competition. on the most recent conference call, vulcan's ceo pointed out that during the quarter, shipments of aggregates rose by 36% in florida. that's incredible. california and arizona improved at least 14%. many of the developers are experiencing the best year they've had in ages. it's got a lot of big projects that have experienced serious delays and you've got to know that. 2014 is the year that they should kick in and that's why
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they predict terrific volume growth. it traded at 87 times next year's earnings. listen, only because the earnings have been so depressed, you again have to buy these cyclical stocks when they seem the most expensive, because if you wait for the estimates to increase, you will be too late. i promise you. that is how cyclicals trade. here's the bottom line. the highway bill is finally kicking in which means they're road building in the united states. vulcan, okay? if you want an international name that also gives you exposure to turn in the economy and mexico's turning big, cemex fits the bill and it's the only mexican stock i think i can recommend in this show. stay with cramer.
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i've always been adamant that you don't need a degree in economics to be a good investor. all you need is the ability to think critically and make judgments of companies that you find compelling after the annual report and reading the conference calls and finding out where the company fits in the economic firmament. does it do better when the economy is humming or does it mean little to the enterprise's earnings? do the numbers go higher if the fed keeps interest rates down to spur the economy or will it get hammered if the fed says the wrong thing? but there's one part of the economics lexicon that does matter to stocks and that's the law of supply and demand, as someone who took a ton of economics classes in college, this is pretty much tattooed in my brain, however, i find that many investors don't understand
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it, let me explain how they impact stock prices and it's driving a lot of the movements that have been mystifying people of late. first, there's the law's application to the stocks themselves. not the entities they represent and the actual, physical entities that trade every day in the open market. let's contrast two stocks, twitter and citigroup. the forward is rallying because there's not only more demand for the stock than there is supply, but there's more demand than there are social media stocks, period. it seems that no one who bought twit on the ipo is interested in selling it now because they believe that this company will come up with a gazillion ways to make money with new advertisers. perhaps more important, there are only a handful of companies that mastered the mobile, mobile and cloud trilogy. twitter is one of them and facebook is the other. facebook's creating 27 million new shares and ceo and founder mark zuckerberg is dumping 41 million shares in a gigantic multibillion-dollar secondary. normally you would expect the
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stock to be clubbed down 5% on that. the darn thing was only down 52 cents until more stocks in the cohort are created, i bet supply will be continually outstripped by demand. consider citi group. it's one of hundreds of banks, all of which are pretty much trading together. we don't need bank equities and we have too much already and there are 3 billion shares outstanding and no near-term of that number shrinking and regulators seem determined to have as much capital on hand as possible. the second kind of supply and demand that people don't seem to get, though, is when there is tightness in a particular product the company produces. that tightness will keep prices unnaturally high until more plants or factories come online to create price equilibrium. take d-rams. that's the most basic form of memory chip. micron is one of the biggest makers of d-rams. the dram market has been there for years and years and years.
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no new capacity has been added in some time and that's allowed dynamic random access memories which have been falling in value to stabilize in price, and maybe even increase a bit. this week micron took a real header, why? because it's competitor is rumored to be building a new d-ram factory. just the rumors sent the stock down gigantically because it could put the d-ram market back in equilibrium or worse, oversupply, and it was all it took. similarly, seagate, and -- as neither they nor anyone else saw much of a need for new ones given the decline in pc sales and the ascendance of flash memory, a competitive form of chip, but get this, just the idea that a d-ram factory might be built sent these stocks lower for fear that it might lead to new disk drive capacity.
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that is guilt by supply association. yet, you don't need to be an econ major to understand stocks, and if you don't understand supply and demand then you'll be mystified about how stocks move and a mystified investor is a bad investor. know your metric, people. if something is in tight supply it can go higher and if there is a ton of it, you can bet it will go lower. stick with cramer. [ laughter ] he loves me. he loves me not. he loves me. he loves me not. ♪ he loves me! that's right. [ mom ] warm and flaky in 15, everyone loves pillsbury grands! [ girl ] make dinner pop! [ woman ] ring. ring. progresso.
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i just served my mother-in-law your chicken noodle soup but she loved it so much... i told her it was homemade. everyone tells a little white lie now and then. but now she wants my recipe [ clears his throat ] [ softly ] she's right behind me isn't she? [ male announcer ] progresso. you gotta taste this soup.
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hey, look, after the close red hat was terrific and jim whitehurst told us it would be. nice work. i promise to find it right here on "mad money." i'm jim cramer and i will see you tomorrow! >> you can buy gold. we put in in a storage vault. it's safe. then, when you want to sell it, we sell it. >> narrator: could this be a golden parachute in a falling economy? >> it left me with nothing. i have no money. >> narrator: ferreira admits he's a con. but rather than face prison, he disappears. >> he was missing. nobody knew where he was. >> narrator: but first, a chicago executive leads the life of a king. >> he would call downstairs and tell them, "bring all of side one and side two of the menu," and tuxedo butlers would come up and serve your breakfa w
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