tv Mad Money CNBC December 21, 2013 4:00am-5:01am EST
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. my mission is simple. to make you money him i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts right now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i'm trying to make you money. my job is not just to entertain you but to educate you. call me. after the best week in five months with today's capping the
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perfect santa claus rally, we have to know when that one transpired. see, this was the year we went from a bear market with bullish advances to an out and out full blown market. this is the year we finally vanquish the demons that haunted this market at the nasdaq top of the beginning of the millennium. this year things worked out. hard issues were resolved positively. good news translated at the end to, yes, good news. right down to today's action, the stockmarket posted a 4.1% domestic product gain with a darn good rally. the nasdaq soared 1.5%. you might be shocked to hear we only just went into an all out bull market mode this year. after all the dow jones average went to 16,221 today.
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hasn't that been a bull market? i would contend until this year, all we really did was make up the ground we lost in the crash in the great recession. in 2013, we finally saw big rally, not just a couple narrow areas. we had great ambassadorth thbre. it all must end badly or the politicians will never let us make real money or the world is a screwed up place t. stockmarket is a fantasy land. or we will hear things if we have 7% employment, how can the stockmarket go higher? we are used to people arguing back and forth about the legitimacy of the federal reserve. we accept that everything is political now. there are it is fully false and not worth participating in. when we do get in, we have a
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facebook gapping, worse, people are afwrad to hit the button. they think, what happens if it reverses to its true character and crashes after aplays the market. do you want to be the guy we see on youtube saying the market looks great here. do you want that link @jim cramer on twitter? much better just to argue that qe 3 is behind everything and the only way to approach this market is to be cynical. be a know it all. who has the vision. the vision toee the next crash coming. hey, what's the real problem with the market? the win peaks negativity came last year during the fiscal discussion, right about now. and this year with the absurd government shutdown and the fight designed to destroy the commitment you notice what, the bull never blinked.
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each time a peak aprepared, it was a scary scale, this was more beautiful than the last time. finally the politicians gave up degreeing the economy in the name of elections. it gave up a more beautiful year at year's end. that was the last nail in the pare coffin. it has been so long since the legitimate bull market in the 1990s, we forgot what happens in this truly positive moment. or maybe people aroundr aren't good enough. something i want you to think about over the next five days. call it your game plan. first, in a bull market, things happen to get resolved positively. although it seems impabl to believe they will. who remembers the cypress crisis of march, 2013? do you know how many country woes, a country nobody can find on a map and can barely recall what went on. there were specials done about
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this thing. i had too fight these naysayers off with a stick, finally resorting to the old limit of insults to the bears. when i repeatedly asked the question on mad.what does the cypress crisis have to do with the prees to earnings, multiple of cramer faith, say it with me, bristol-myers, which by the way was up an astounding 64% this year. after all, cars of the past, that was difficult for many. but it has to be done. second, bull markets, all bull markets are based on profits, not the prophet kind. profits, when companies create bountiful markets, refinancing because the med makes it possible the stockmarket does go higher. it's a fact of life. there are tlen plenty of people that tell you only sales matter. they say the profit will be taken away, you name it.
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they were all wrong. they will never admit they were wrong. they don't regard it as their job to say they were wrong. you heard it from me. they were wrong. i am tired of hearing of them and their endless heckleing of ben bernanke. i think he is the hero. critic, listen up, here's your hat, what's your hurry? don't let the door slam you on the way out. third, in the bull market, they take things in their own hands. they break themselves up or they merge or raise dividends or do gigantic buyoffs, they execute well. ceos matter. i read about 21 of them in my get rich carefully book. you need them back because they took matters into their own hands, that's bull market behavior. in a bull market, people get to work. that's water beginning to happen right now. that's what occurred this
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quarter. employment is coming back. you don't hear about it because there are two sides to every story. whenever e even when there is only one story. there is a democrat side and a republican side. i could care less. jobs are recovering. >> that makes aton ton of things happening. including a pickup in home sales, more cars bought. that's what you saw in today's raging gross domestic product number. finally, the fifth trade. no inflation. oh, we don't talk about inflation up here because there is no inflation. inflation is what handcuffs the fed. inflation is what ruins a person of power and makes it impossible to make enough money to get the stockmarket moving. inflation is the sournlg of the bowl. however, right now, we don't see i. i sometimes feel the only other guy that realized this is my hero ben bernaiche.
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jobs begin to become plentiful and there is no inflation. for the first time since the new millennium began, we have all buy. >> that is why we're going higher. tom in michigan. tom. >> hi, jim, tom from chilly saginaw, michigan with the 100 rose bowl part issy buia to you. >> i am, too, pasadena is gorgeous. water up? >> caller: i saw that ticker symbol brcm, broadcom? >> it's a serial disappointor. few want to be in a stock that is similar, you can go, indeed,
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for xylinks. can i go to vid. in massachusetts? >> caller: hey, jim, a big boo-yah holiday from andover. >> what's up? >> caller: i want to know about jpl circuits and crus. >> cirrus logic is seeing market disaster. jabil is a fortune 500 has fallen off a cliff. i don't want it. okay. the year of the bull pay be upon us. all right? we're in an actual true out and out bull market now. it started in 2013. it's really the first year of the new millenia, the others are fair markets with bullish spikes. you know what i this i? together recognizing these five sign office a bull market, we
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can involve this conundrum together. >> coming up, the market is hitting new highs. some of your stocks refuse to rally. tonight, cramer has some ideas about what to do with tickers that aren't cutting it but seem too cheap to cut. later, cramer pause. he made a list and checked it twice. now he's ready to reveal which stocks are nice. don't miss the companies that are make the seventeen bright. when cramer reveals his favorite stocking stufrs. but, cash? they have delivered more than a 40% return to date. is this a recovering job market in 2014? find out when cramer speaks to the cea before ink dries.
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>> we've just been through a period of truly fabulous gains for the stockmarket. with today being still one more example, punctuated by hideous squalls of selling that make everyone doubt the resilience of the bull and for years, despite repeated bear rates, the bull has, indeed, come through for us. however, just because we're in a bull market doesn't mean individual stocks go down and go down hard. when i was writing my new book "get rich carefully," i reviewed every book and bulletins we send out at the same time explaining the rational for each decision. you know what i found? when i see a stock spiraling lower, i tend to move too soon and buy it before the pain has come to an end.
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or if the trust owns the stock getting bull axed, i tend to wait too long to sell, sell, sell, these mistakes are not unique to me, not at all. most are far too near to call bottomst in the interest of learning from my errors, so you can avoid making the same misjudgments, yourself, i catalogue all the time a falk stock too soon or sold it too late. i group them into seven patterns i casualty false floors. if you try to lean on them, you will fall right through them. >> that will produce hefty losses. what are these false floors and how can you avoid them? i will warn you about two of them. you can read about all seven and get rich carefully in a week-and-a-half, because i am, indeed, of course in shameless tease. the false first floor, a big buy back. even a monster buy back cannot
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put your market downturn or worse. if the company, itself, isn't producing good numbers, you can't buy back stock for as loing company. you might think it would be a big cushion. they're in there buying. management will come in, support the ploois price, the share price is getting hammered. ah, i wish it were like that. while there are few buy backs out there, most buy backs don't result in shrinkage of shares. >> that creates new stock that bakally canceled out the buy back. even a situation where you have a company shrinking its share camp the truth is most buy backs are done in an insanely stupid maerp, if the stock is getting bent, spindled or mutilated. executive, even the great ones know a lot about running companies, they don't necessarily know anything about
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running money. i met mane that seem to revel in their own stock. over the last few years, we had days where the average just got crushed, usually because of discourse in washington. or maybe trouble overseas or simply because of selling pressures or the double and triple ets that spill over no stocks. these would be perfect opportunities to buy stack at a discount. we get a higher price t. company, itself, will be using the reauthorization money in the most efficient way possible. you know what? in reality, most execs i talk to seem oblivious to these sorts of declines or don't think they're worth taking advantage of. ah, that teams me. lots of management seem to check their brains at the door of the stock exchange. they seem to think that price simply doesn't matter t. fact is a company repurchasing its own stock isn't all that different
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from you or me from a regular investor buying stock. in both cases, you want your buys to be effective. you should want the best price possible. otherwise, you are wasting your fire power. with most buybacks, though the fire power is wasted either because the companies come in and make purchases by road or pause they'll give a broker cart blanche to fill the order. no broker will stick its neck out on a horrible day to make a big purchase. they won't. they're not incentive to do so. that's what a buy back needs to do to be cost effective. if you own a stock that is getting hammers or you are thinking of buying one, please be warned, that buy back, it will not save you. it is, indeed, a false floor. you are better off not buying or simply selling the darn thing before your losses get even bigger. a contrary view. it's what my bulletin showed me. how about the second false
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intoer? this is an easy mistake to make? i made it a number of times. none of us should make it again when you hear how embarrassing it is. write this down, no stock is ever too cheap to sole. when i look back at my charitable trust, i was struck by how many times i used the phrase too cheap to sell, as a justification for shredding points left and right. sometimes i would reach out and buy a full knife for the same reason, too cheap to sell. listen to me, take a pen and paper, write this down. there is no such thing as too cheap to sell. it doesn't exist. more important, it doesn't make any sense whatsoever. if you hear yourself refusing to buy a stock because it's too cheap. i want you to take that as your own personal red flag and ask yourself if there might be something bigger going on that could be crushing the company in question. at the very least, few if you are making the too cheap argue,
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something in the bodder world might be causing the stock to be so cheap in the first place. the reality is cheap stocks can always get cheaper. they are usually cheap for a reason, it's usually because they deserve to be hitting new lows. let me give you example of this thinking. the pharmaceutical that makes all the generic drugs but has a major proprietary kicker. paxone. at the time the stock hit full around hard, it was trading down to $58. it was selling for 12 times earnings. a growth stock. cheap, versus the average multiple 18 times. temperatures kept dropping, by the time it traded down to the mid-40s, cheaper still at ten times earnings. i wonder if their competitors have been able to come up with a challenge. something the management assured
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us couldn't happen. well, it did happen. while the generic wasn't going to launch for a few more years, i realized as soon as the generic hit the market say if 2015, it wouldtary the earnings to shreds. tevas steamed ooep whooep cheap to ignore, we would have realized on the outyears, teva was actually incredibly expensive. the stock's supposed cheapness on its earnings turned out to be a false floor par excellance. so here's the bottom line, don't just watch out for my false floors. you should look at your record and see where you held on to loser stocks for too long. a big buy back will not save you from big declines and no stock is ever too cheap to sell. after the break, i'll try to save you some more money.
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. >> all week i have been sending out stocking stuffs, high quality stocks that i think would make quality gifts for your children or anyone else that can benefit to financially be responsible. i think your kids will say i might get a kindle than a bunch of stocks. as i have been telling you every day, stocks where the gifts that keep on giving. when you invest your money, it can become the most challenging tool out there. that's why i take this idea seriously. so should you. i'll admit i'll give the stock to someone if your family is a christmas faux pas. as maybe as bad as giving somebody a sweater. if you do this, you need to know if the stocks you use are stocks that will actually go higher because even though this is a kind of a boring idea for a present, it gets exciting very fast if theory acceptient can
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watching this they own consistently. it changes the equation. hence, that's why i'm only recommending my absolute favorite stock the ones we own so much we own them for my ch charitable trust. i have given you general electric and johnson controls. google and banc of america, sienna -- ciena and apple. >> that doesn't interest me. i don't care where a stock has been, i care where it's going. tonight we're pufting a bow on it with our last pair of holiday goodies, a health care company, johnson & johnson and tjx. let's start with j & j. they have farm marks couldn't p consumer and medical device/diagnostics. jnj is configured.
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the shareholders benefit enormously. my soon to be released book, i mention it can be a terrific winner if management does what i regard as the right thing. by the way, i think management will do the right thing in part because the relatively new ceo is so committed to creating value. i will admit they have done well the stock is up 31% for the year, that mpgs in large part to his fabulous stew wardship. i think this thing can go so much higher if management will split jnj into three pieces. sales will grow at a 10% clip. will you have a slow going, but incredibly consistent products business on over the counter drugs and last but not least the medical device and diagnostic business is involved. it's more inconsistent than the rest of the company.
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i'm hearing it's for sale. i think all the components would get a higher valuation if the piece of the piaa were to stand on its own. remember what i said about breakups earlier in the week. wall street is not built to handle these big conflom rats. money managers want to own bite size companies that are pure plays on a given business. jnj is, indeed, a great american company, it's the definition of what is called a blue chip d. three resulting stocks are much more into the money management community. i think the company can deliver revenue growth courtesy of better cost containment and strong product mix going forward. plus the company has a great track record. jnj sells for 15.8 times next year's earnings estimates. i think the stock will go higher in 2014. i'd like to of course buy more
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if the stock could go below 90. it did sell some higher because it had become the largest position in the trust. now, for our final stocking stuff, i want you to consider tjx. that's the company behind tj max, marshalls and home goods. i got a dynamite tj max in the morning at the street. i love it. i got to build it. in an environment where retail has been kind of inconsistent with some really good and bad tjx stands out among the best. it understands the value oriented mindset. tjx sells brand name merchandise at bargain prices, a few hundred more in canada and europe. the company can do that because of its business model and terrific execution. other retailers need to offload their inventory. maybe they've too much inventory
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after holiday. tjx swoops in and buys stuff for cash. they turn around and sell that same merchandise to you. it works because the company knows the product the customers want and it has a top notch team in place. this means that tjx can procure the merchandise in a few weeks, whereas a normal retailer needs about six to nine months to get merchandise. they're not just buying an already finished product from the store. not only does tjx have a great concept, but it's also got a truly impressive growth story. it has a quarter of its sales from outside the u.s. tjx plans to double its store count long term as well as expansion of new countries, primarily europe, where they already have a growing profitable business even during the downtourn. i think tjx's home division has
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enormous capacity, a lower williams and sonoma. plus these home good stores are doing well. consumers went heartless. it's gotten consistent same store sales. it's not a place you can get a huge porcelain plate with a turkey on it for thanksgiving. i got the huge plate there. everybody loved it. not only that, jx recently increased their online presence dramatically. you will never see the ceo, i'm sure it will be one more big hit. now, this has been an incredibly consistent resame. over the last decade, remember, tjx only had two quarters where same store sales declined. plus the company raised its dividend every 15 years t. stock keeps going higher and higher. plus the company is addicted to
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buying back stocks. somewhat dramatically. one issue here is valuation. right now tjx, i expect them to keep taking share and executing beautifully. i think you can get a better price. here's the bottom line. i told you about these seams yesterday. these stocking stuffs can be riding a major one. johnson & johnson aboard the breakup trade an tjx more value oriented consciousness. i think they are ideal gifts for those that don't mind the purchases are not returnable. frank in new york. frank, frank, frank! >> caller: boo-yah, mr. cramer. >> boo-yah, chief. >> caller: thank you and your staff for automatic things you do. it really helps a lot. >> you are trick to say that, thank you, man. we try to do a great job here every day. i have a great staff. >> caller: and you do.
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i want your opinion on amgen. several late stage development, there including the potential cholesterol drug which could generate up to $4 billion in revenue. >> frank, listen. we are members of the four horsemen of the apock limbs. there is no room for amgen. we like gilead, right, we like celgene and regeneron. we are not daeviateing from those for. siad in connecticut. >> caller: i want your impact which will come from results of an 81 date of clinical trials of bb 27, your thoughts and let us know what you think about that. >> i know it spiked on that. that's not good enough. anybody can see that from the chart. i have learned my lesson, when you opine without a recent
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analysis on a biocap under 3 billion. we have to do a much more homework driven analysis of puma. all week, we helped your stocking stuffs for gifts that keep on giving. look no further, google, ciena. oh, apple, cat, tjx, jnj not all red hot. stocks you can still buy. remember, stocks are a great gift for kids. we wish you a very, merry christmas.
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lightning round is over. are you ready, ski-daddy? we want to start with dan in ohio. dan! >> caller: hey, jim. i am looking at an energy stock at an 8-year low. >> edid an analysis of petrobras. it come back down. it is still so cheap, i can't walk away. every brazilian stock is awful. let's go to daive if california. dave. >> hey, jim, boo-yah. >> hi, chief. >> caller: hey, jim, i'd like to ask you about dentin. >> one of my bankable 21 veos, ventas. december 31st called get rich carefully. so i'm a buyer of ventas. carol in new york. carol! >> caller: boo-yah, cramer. >> yo-yo. >> caller: happy holidays. i got to find out about rite
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aid. >> i went over that quarter. yes, it's absolutely true. it was not as good as walgreens or cvs. did it deserve a fall like this? it reminded me of wendy's. i want to circle back and buy it right here. pick another. gail in north carolina. gail! >> hi,jim yaim cramer. i'm curious why you think anc didn't do so well when it careful on the open market? >> that's a great question. you know what the answer is? i believe in my judgment. i think it goes up to 23. i think a lot of these bigger cap ipos like hilton, they didn't pop them into their premium. that's the opportunity. i am speaking of my judgment that anc is inexpensive. >> that ladies and gentlemen is the conclusion of the lightning round [ music playing ]
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. >> merry christmas to you, jim. >> excellent. >> 70/80 degrees here. >> okay. so it's miserable there. rub it in. >> brr. >> let's go to audrey if florida. audrey. >> caller: maybe you can do something and have my back with my sciatica. >> you can go to dr. eriksson, my chiropractor. she'll straighten you out. >> merry christmas. >> epic proportions in the food and restaurant industry. from our house a tofurky is a delicacy. dad, what's in vel vieeta that t never goes bad? it's not my faith, few smother anything with natural gravy and cranberry, it's got beef. i have always been adamant that
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>> while that strong gdp number we got this morning was fabulous. if you want to get the employment in this country, there is no better source of information than the second largest payroll processor in the united states. the company has an outsource human resource, paych hex beat wall street earnings by a penney on stronger than expected
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revenues stock immediately spiked. more important the payroll services division who had a 5% clip. the bulk of the increase coming from higher revenue per check and more checks per client. it's benefiting from obama care. it's up a quick 13% sense we last booked the ceo at the beginning of october. they support a yield and as the economy picks up, i got to tell you the stock can keep roaring 2014 don't take it from me, let's check in with the president and veo. mr. bucci, thanks for coming to "mad money." >> thank you for having me. >> we are happy with the progress. growth has accelerated. payroll up twice as much in the first quarter. we are feeling really good t.hrs revenue growth was 12% as you
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said, 401 k and outsourcing are strong this quarter. >> were you surprised to see it? is it geographic? this is such a huge jump. i got to try to understand how it happened. >> no, it was across the board. i think on the hrs side, 401 k has been doing well. we are starting to see it pay off on the revenue side. we went after more conversions of existing 401 k plans. the hr outsourcing, particularly our peo business picked up i think because of obama care. mohr people looking for help and assistance on what to do with the confusion. >> that has given us wind behind us as well. >> i know you were preparing all along for the obama care. did you see the problems with the website coming? that's one of the reasons you had a spike in business? >> jim, i think we were prepared right along. we had insurance proujts u products.
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we also have the hr outsourcing team and our peo business that deal a lot with total hr. we were prepared. we had them trained up. we have a great compliance project that trains our folks. i think we were able to get in front of a lot of clients, helped them. >> that increased our sales a bit in the second quarter. >> let's talk about flow. there is a guy, j.p. morgan hasn't really liked the stock. he has been wrong, frankly. since floating no longer, float income is flat ahead of our 7.9 estimate on higher balances, is this the beginning of that inflexion point, too? >> i think it really is. we are kind of at 10 million a quarter in float. we really think we are at the bottom of the trough now where things turn as the timing changes for us. we have seen the estimates. i think interest rates will go up slowly overtime. i think it will be good for the economy and for us.
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i think that has nowhere to go but up. >> the stock has had the major move. is it the ill the right thing to continue to buy? >> well, i certainly, our plans are to continue to drive a lot of investor value. the market is what it is. you know better than i. we will certainly continue to drive a lot of growth in this business. we are excited about the progress and the acceleration of the growth. in germany, we finished an acquisition. we are starting up in brazil. we feel really good for our chances of great growth in the future. >> we were in the u.s., epulled up with work day. you have a software an services business coming. will there come a time when you got to transfer all of your business to the web or to the cloud or is it fine to be able to have a hybrid? >> i think it's, you know, we are moving a lot. we already have a lot of our clients on software is a service now. we have the low end product and we have right up to our
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mid-market product a. lot of that on software is a service now. we have clients that use our very good mobility applications on their iphones and and droids. they go online. they are also talking service at the same time. even our service givers are on our sas offering. so we're really there. i think it's a matter of innovative tech following combined with great servicech that's what makes the difference. >> last question, marty, government seems to be out of the picture. we've got some let's say an end to the rancor, temporarily, democrats, republicans, what else do you think is spurring the confidence, people have to go start businesses or your numbers wouldn't be as good as they are. >> i do think consumer kchdz is coming back. you saw a little of that in the restatement of the spend from the summer that they announced today. i think there is more consumer confidence. i also think lending is opening up a bit. some of the indices that show small business lending starting
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to open up. when that happens, i think small businesses start to come back. i've said before, we do see housing, new housing starting to come back. particularly in certain markets like the southeast and the mid-west. as that comes back, a lot of jobs start coming around. that as things, you start to feel more confidence in the government. you start to see housing come back. i really thitd it's going to start to pick up small business. >> this was a huge quarter, marty. thank you so much. it has been such a great ride. it will continue to do so right through 2014 t. good stuff is just beginning. thank you so much, the president and ceo of paychex. >> thanks, jim. >> it's the beginning. stay with paychex. stay with cramer.
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>> great expectations isn't a book. it's a setup. i'm talking about the nature of today's action, nike, because the wild trading in all three is what people expected versus what they got. it's hard to imagine expectations higher than the nike quarter t. dow jones industrial average has been showing a level of momentum in china that had been spectacular and the u.s. was running very hot. the hottest in years. so with this charitable trust, holding, we were braced for disa payment f. owners wanted to see
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much better than expected numbers print when the stock was up 50% for the year. what is wrong? nothing. across the board 15 to 20, 15% revenue growth. that's the best predictor of how the company will do in the next six to nine month, china, however, grew only 5%. 1% futures growth. >> that wasn't enough in the big upside surprise plus the company is investing for the future, which meant a more money not flowing to the bottom line. expectations did come down. it was a mighty painful thing on the big up day. you wouldn't believe the stocks should have been up 10% not down over 10% as it was today because they were efusive about the big contracts they signed. eighth business analytics companies that is highly valued
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for the sales and a big metric showed a slowdown. they were hammered for inconsistency. companies become hit or miss. investors are tired of hearing everything is fantastic. it means shoot the lights out on every metric. which is not going to occur throughout the conference call otherwise. they are aware of having to hear about sales force at the company. growing pains? nobody cares timco. they don't want excuse, head hat did. red hat is measured by the strength of its buildings, that the momentum investors expect. the ceo came on "mad money" after reporting the quarter no one seems to like and told us the business will be smokey in 2014 and the way it accounts for the billings obscured what could
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be tremendous strength. he seemed totally heart felt and bummed people didn't get i. he wanted people to run to not from the stock. sure enough everything he said on "mad money" the previous quarter was right t. stock soared 14.5% higher today. people are too cynical about this fascinating company in so many ventures. yet, people had too expectations of consistency for tipco and both, well, they disappointed. but red hat was loathed for that last quarter miss and had no expectations whatsoever. those are the keendz of stories you must be on the lookout forly is when the quarter that lowered expectations wasn't that bad at all. stay with cramer. . >> immerse yourself into cramer's world. watch on the tablet or the web,
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i think it's the only opportunity that presented itself. they are spending a lot of money. i think china react sell rates in 2014. this remind me from disney, it went from 36 to 92. that's nike. i'm jim cramer. i will see you monday! about the gifts that you are about to give. my dear danielle... . >> mm-hmm? >> ...i don't think you know how seriously stressed out brandon is. tell her. look at her and tell her for the first time. and you ask me, "can i afford it?" why do you want a treadmill? >> i love being outside, suze, but i live in chicago, and the weather gets rough during the winter. >> you don't have to explain! i'm from chicago. the wind blows. [ imitates wind blowing ]
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