welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm carolin roth and these are your headlines from around the world. christmas comes early for stocks. u.s. markets close out a new record high and europe opens in the green on a shortened trading day this christmas eve. but there may be no festive cheer for retailers. reports show traffic as u.s. stores plunge while bad weather in the uk keeps shoppers off of high street. tis the season for deal making. carl likely is reportedly in talks to buy in a deal that

could be worth $4 billion. and a santa rally is under way before he sets off on his global delivery round. happy christmas eve, everyone. many of the markets here in europe are already closed such as the italian, swiss and fwerman ones, but there are a km markets still trading at least until around noon, 1:00. we're seeing a little green on the charts. the cac 40 up by 0.3% and the ftse 100 is seeing similar gains. european markets trading close to a three-week high. this is on the back of some m&a activity that we saw in the european markets yesterday but also the cheer given that we see those record highs in the u.s.

trading session. in terms of some of the sectors, travel, leisure, media outperforming, we have no sector in the red today, but in terms of the relative underperformers, we're seeing technology and basic resources in terms of the -- on the lower part of the ledger, technology saw nice gains in yesterday's trading session arm being one of the better performances. apple, kind of a mobile deal. the shanghai composite managing to close out by around 0.11% and we also saw a big drop in the seven-day repo rate. this is the pboc index rate. that ease the some of the fears about that cash crunch that we've seen lingering in the markets over the last couple of days. asx 200 in australia up by around 0.7%. the nikkei 225 smashed through that 16,000 level for the first

time in six years, but didn't quite manage to close above that crucial level. also, this is what's happening in the bond markets, the ten-year treasury yields at 2.92%. yesterday, we saw treasuries falling, very light volume, bond markets in the u.s. will close around 2:00 p.m. later today. medium term paper falling for the fourth straight session on concerns that the fed, of course, will be raising rates sooner than it had initially signaled. the bund markets in germany closed for trading today because of christmas. last but not least, here is a check of the forex markets where we're seeing a bit of a mixed performance for the u.s. dollar. it is higher between, the japanese yen back above that 104 level, but it is lower against the aussie dollar and the sterling. in the spirit of christmas, cnbc has been asking analysts what they're wishing for this festive season. >> my 2014 wish is the accountable in washington.

u.s. companies have done a great job in returning shareholder equity. >> my 2014 wish is to never, ever say taper again. >> my wish for 2014 is for real economic growth. how do we get there? functional government, real corporate tax reform. and oh, yeah, peace on earth. >> joining us now is alistair winter, chief economist of ask daniel stewart. thank you so much for coming in on christmas heave. how are you? >> thanks for the invitation. >> wonderful. what's your wish list for 2014? >> my wish list? i don't know. i think my mood is one of -- i suppose i wish i wouldn't be gloomy by the end of the year. >> we'll see stock markets rally this year. the s&p and the dow, even the european markets like the german market trading up a record high,

up 25% this year. can this continue in 2014? that's the big question on everyone's mind. >> yes. i don't think it can. >> why not? >> i think because it's come such a long way and i think the big story for me is the taper, which i think equity markets have not really thought about it enough. i think they're still saying -- still drawing on the -- and, of course, it is continuing. i think it's interesting, the bond market and the currency market are, to my mind, behaving more rationally, that it's five years we've had this. i won't call it a drug, but it's been good news. it's been quite difficult not to make money in equities. >> absolutely. and tapering is good for the markets, isn't it, because it means that the economy is strengthening. we see unemployment falling, we see the wealth effect in the markets. that makes people feel a lot

better yesterday, consumer confidence numbers, five-month high. why is tapering bad for the markets? why would it be bad for the economy, too. >> well, it takes away the prop, the so-called bernanke put. >> but the markets are self-sustaining that now, you could argue. >> they're saying that, but i'm not sure it's been thought through. i think trading volumes are pretty thin. i'm not fwloommy. i don't want to -- i just think everyone is going to have to work very hard next year to keep the show going. i think politicians will have to work very hard and i think companies will have to work hard if they're going to deliver earnings that will support further increase in their share price. i suppose i don't think the target -- i think people should

settle for single digit returns income year. i read about double digits and so on. that's all qe stuff. that's good to go. and i think the taper will be faster than people are thinking at the moment. >> okay. so your saying a slightly more cautious view, more nuanced view. how do you want to be exposed in terms of the equity markets around the world? can the nikkei continue to rally as it did this year, up more than 50% in 2013? certainly you can't replicate that. >> well, of course, i think the nikkei is actually one of the beneficiaries of the taper because it -- the yen, the dollar/yen exchange rate seems to drive the japanese equities. and i think -- again, i don't think the dollar will take -- go off through the roof, but it will be strong. so you will see that rate, the dollar strengthening against the

yen, which will support the nikkei. and it may or may not be supported by growth in japan. i'm a bit skeptical of that this year. >> it's interesting how the dollar has been able to make headway against the yen but not towards the euro or the pound. first of all, if you agree with alistair or if you completely disagree, send in your e-mails to worldwide@cnbc.com. also on today's show, an emerging market sell-off and the end of gold haven status. how can investors prepare for 2014? we've got a technical analyst view at 10:30 cet. plus, at 11:20 cet, we look back on the year in technology from the twitter ipo to the development of wearable text. as shoppers bag their last minute christmas eve bargains, live in new york some retailers are open 24 hours.

will it be enough to stave off the impact of weak traffic and falling margins? and now tapering is in the past, but where next for investors inspect we're joined from boston by a strategist who says 2014 will be a good time to focus on the dividend oriented stocks. still to come on the show, it's all texas a festive season, but which gadgets will we be unwrapping tomorrow morning? tom mckenzie takes a look at the top festive devices after this. ♪ you know, ronny... folks who save hundreds of dollars by switching to geico sure are happy. and how happy are they jimmy? i'd say happier than a bodybuilder directing traffic. he does look happy. get happy. get geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance.

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many people are turning to the digital world for gift ideas. tom mckensy has been taking a look at some of the most popular dwiegzs on the market right now. >> the gadget show here in london is a excavatorble mecca showcasing everything from first line printing to smart tvs. organizers expect around 30,000 people to flock through the doors to check out the hottest gadgets and gizmos for this holiday season. maybe these will make it into your stocking this year. a humanoid robot to fight others. fully modified versions could set you back as much as 5,000 pounds.

if that seems steep, why not build a robot yourself with this, a 3d printer on sale for 300 pounds. if that's all too high tech for you, what about this? paper made from stone that you can write on under water. all well and good, but at this year's gadgets show, there were just two companies that everyone was interested in. in the green corner, microsoft. and in the blue corner, sony. the battle lines have been well and truly drawn this year with ps4 hoping to take a chunk of the market share and prove that you need far more than a tablet to have a deep gaming experience. and over here, we've got the xbox 1, rather bizarrely stuck on the back of a 4x4. that hasn't deterred these gamers. >> you will always have partial gamers that love to have a console, love to have something that gives them more feedback or responsiveness than the actual

box itself or game play. >> the thing about an xbox 1, connected to the cloud with the ridiculous processing capability that brings to them, we're talking about super number crunching levels for gaming. you can't do that on a tablet. >> analysts wait to crunch the sales numbers, there's a new device making inroads. >> the fitness devices are coming fast. i think that's one of the bip bigger shift necessary changes we've seen for 2014. >> there's a lot of excitement around items like this providing items that can make your blood pressure, track your daily activity on a wrist band and feed it into your smartphone or your tablet. and if you need a bit of peer pressure, they've got some scales to send out a tweet out to all your friends with your weight. >> do you think this is going to be on people's christmas shopping?

>> well, i don't know. i think some lucky people will be getting a nice vibrator for christmas. you see that? >> it's been a big year for the peck industry. let's take a look back at the other companies that made the headlines. twitter popping at the open on this first day of trading. >> are users now being investors in the country that's nothing but exciting for us. >> i'm the person who you would want to ask last how to make a smooth ipo. >> google made into 1,000 church friday after shares surged past the 1k barrier. >> the opportunities we have are tremendously. >> shares are rallying after a green to a buyout. >> take your money and leave because this is the best thing that could have possibly happened to you. >> microsoft is buying nokia's smartphone business for $7.2

billion. nokia stock up 81%. >> microsoft on the lookout for a new ceo. >> i'm not finished. i'm running very hard until we have a ceo successor. >> this is the first time that chinese will be able to get their iphones as in the united states. >> we are turning the industry on its ear. >> i don't want to talk about value investors any more. that's not why you buy apple. >> they scare the investors. >> mooip michael dell still relates a $25 billion buyout. >> we're making real progress. i think the turn around is on track, but a lot of heavy lifting ahead. >> we've passed 800 million active users in terms of yahoo!'s global audience. >> the cd business is certainly not for sale. >> the chinese incidentser net giant announced a sell

triggering the sell in bitcoins. >> the brand new smartwatch, the galaxy deal. >> and so game the smartwatches and a whole new world of wearables that can change the contents. and it's looking like u.s. retailers may be getting a lump of coal in their stockings this year. shoppertrak says sales fell .1% last week while customer traffic plunged 21%, notable since this half weekend was expected to be among the four busiest days of the season. shoppertrak originally felt it would be a stronger sales time. coming up, we're live at the toys r us store and we're joined by lori, we'll look at the season and what it all means for retailers.

we want to know what is the best toy that you ever received as a present and why? if you want to join the skas here on "worldwide exchange," get in touch with us via twitter @cnbcwex or direct to me @carolincnbc. alistair, what's the best present you ever got? >> i'm showing my age. a train set. you could run two locomotives with different controllers. so my brother and i can play with this. >> you were how old? >> 10. >> 10, okay. >> i don't think they make them any more. >> the best present that i received was a game boy. but that was more than 20 years ago. >> you were a girl. >> still, i really liked playing with a game boy, but i had to share it with my siblings. >> my older kids, i'll tell you, my daughter virtualusly told me to give money to microfinance

lending. that's what she wants for christmas this year. >> wow, that's very noble, isn't it? >> and i've done it. if we look at these shopping statistics for the u.s., they look gruesome. thanksgiving was pretty bad, they said. now last week, the crucial week before christmas, that was fairly dire, too. what's wrong here? i thought consumer confidence was at a five-month high. i thought the jobs picture was improving. i thought welt was improving. why is it not showing on the high street? >> you're talking about the states here. it's more confusing. it's easier in the uk because consumer confidence is low and spending is strained. but no, it is a bit odd. i think it's -- it was a macro issue here and that is i'm not sure the money is getting to the right people. this is not a political point. it's just actually who's spending the money. i think people are so bargain hunting, i think there was a

frenzy on black friday and so on that people -- and i'm sure the discount when the sales start, they've already started here, people will be out there. they're spending their money carefully. >> but what do you mean by that? the money isn't getting to the right people. do you mean the fed liquidity? >> yeah. >> where is it going, then? >> well, i think it's sticking. it's sticking with banks, rebuilding the balance sheets. i think it's sticking with companies who are not spending it, not investing in the expansion. and i think it's sticking. as i say, i'm a bit nervous about making -- but better off. there's a limit to how many houses and how many cars and how many durable goods they can have. and i think it's not spreading wide enough. i'm not knocking qe, but i think it has not reached the mass of people. and i think this, of course, in

the uk is the point that people are very -- including the cost of living is exceeding their wage does that mean you're rounding out tapering? >> i think in addition to the tapering, i think it's distorting the bond markets, the treasury market and so on as opposed to tighten iing, i thin if they're going to keep interest rates low, that's very important. but weather encouraging businesses to invest more remains to be seen. so that's what their priority should be and i think it is.

i think we'll see the taper go more quickly. >> mr. fisher saying that's wlaeld have voted for. >> and. >> let's turn our attention to the uk. the bank of england may need to revise its forward guidance as the uk picture continues to improve. ross westgate spoke to mike amy and asked him what the implications were. >> well, there's a couple of implications. clearly the threshold by the middle of 2016 looks a bit out of kilter. it looks like it's going to come sooner than that. the challenge they've got is the inflation dynamics look extremely benign. so you've got earnings growth

and cpi numbers ahead. they'll either push down the threshold or skew the debate towards the inflationary risks rather than unemployment itself i think. >> and how is gilt going to trade through this transition? >> gilt is trading badly at the moment, so the immediate response to the number this morning was about a four to five-basis sell-off to the curve and rate expectations pushing up on the short sterling strip. so i think to some degree, you know, forward guidance, if they want to do forward guidance, then they're going to have to start to reinforce the message. the message at the moment is we'll only hike rates when the economy with stand it. an economy with nominal income growth can with stand the rate hikes. so on they have got some mess e messaging to do to keep those

front end yields anchored, i think, wrae. >> what about the strength of the resilience of the rebound, the growth that we've got? >> one, there is a bit of pent up demand in the housing market. it was initially as a result of mortgage rates coming down. there's that component and then there's the stabilization in europe. i think if you look through the next few quarters, i suspect that we'll move from a growth rate at the moment, which is probably running at three or just above if you're lucky. i think we'll end up somewhere around about 2, 2.5%. simply for the reason that the consumer isn't in the position to reliever its balance sheet. it's tough to see how you could keep a 3 ers, 3.5% growth rate. so i think we will see some

slowdown. >> that was mike amey from pimco. let's get back to alistair stewart. do you agree with mike? at some point, the boe will have to reinforce its guidance. >> yes. i think mr. carney must be having second thoughts about taking the job. i'm sure he's a brilliant man, but in canada, he decided what was happening and here he's got eight colleagues who he has to keep the right side of on the mpc. at the moment, the pretty are on his case. >> the boe is clearly behind the curve. >> i think he's used to saying i

can keep rates lower and that's it, folks. and i'm not sure quite how he gets off it. but i think he'll keep rates low, should it may be an attrition. the other thing is, the rate curve is not that steep. people saying, oh, well, rates will go up next year, even, and they may, but what, by 0.25%? that's a recovery. >> what the boe is hoping for is that productivity will rise and by that it will see inflation coming down significantly. not overshooting. do you think that's a fair hope? >> yes, absolutely. one husbands with deflation, but there's certainly disinflation. i wouldn't be surprised if the uk cpi is 1.5 or lower. i think it will go -- if i remember the way the indices are -- it will fall in december

below 2%, so below target. yeah, i think that will happen. but i'm afraid it's more because of the demand. >> alistair, we'll get plenty more thoughts with you later in the show. if you have any questions for alistair, is end them in to worldwide@cnbc.com. still ahead on the show, we get a technical view of how investors will position themselves for the next trading year. we'll be back.

christmas comes early for stocks, u.s. markets close out a new record high and europe opens in the green on a shortened trading day this christmas eve. but there may be no festive cheer for retailers. reports show traffic plunge while bad weather in the uk keeps shoppers off of high street. tis the season for deal making. and the santa rally is under way in lackland as father

christmas sets off on his global delivery route. good morning, everyone. it seems as though father christmas hasn't feared investors this year. if you were long on the european markets, you made a nice profit. 15% is what we saw in terms of the dax. the uk market, a bit of a lagger, up by around 13% this morning. on christmas eve, gains of around 0.5%. the xetra dax is closed today, but yesterday it closed at a record high. it's going to be closing at around noon or 11 o'clock or 2:00 today. the ftse mib in italy is up by around 0.7%. and the bond markets we saw in treasury prices moving lower

yesterday. keep in mind that at the belly of the curve, we did see yields going up for the fourth day in a row, actually. this and the bund markets are closed today. in the forex markets, we're seeing a mixed dollar performance. it is higher against the yen at 104.25. but it is lower against the euro, sterling/dollar at 1.6335. euro/dollar, just off those two-week lows that we saw on friday. 136.76 is the level that we're seeing here. another record investment on wall street is asking, how long can the rallies last is in the? thank you so much for coming in this morning. you brought us a couple of charts for the s&p 500.

how much further can it rally? >> so the thing is that you want to be disciplined right now. when you look at the s&p 500, it was made bearish below 1750 and just after the debt ceiling resolution, the market decided to go and break 1750 and establish itself above it. so we brought the lineal resistance from 2009, 2010, 2011 and currently at current levels, you need to be disciplined, like there is no back stop, the market could up go up 10% in 2014. the question is where. the best case would be around 2015 on the s&p 500. so when i say i'm bullish, i'm disciplined, but cautious. for me, 1700, 1750, as long as we stay above the level i stay long.

so the resistance in may was 1680. it was 1780 a few months ago. during that correction, what is important is the 1700, 1750 areas. if the market manages to be retained in that area, then we might go to 1950 where there will be a modest correction, i guess, and maybe to 2015. the graph you see here, there is

only one graph to pay attention to, they tell you things like, i don't know, 1997 comes very often, 1998 comes very often, 2007. but this move down are little bits in the market going up. >> but a lot of investors now worried about valuations. if we look at the s&p 500 historically, where are we in terms of pe, in terms of valuation now? 15? 16? what does that tell you about whether that market is overvalued from a technical perspective? >> so the thing is when we say 15 pe, we refer to an average, but the average is never what you find on the peaks. on the peaks, it's higher. in 2008, it was 28. and i think the top in 2000 was

totally modified by people not understanding what was going on. so when people don't understand what is going on, when you see the move that goes that far down, they tend to magnify. so in 2000, nobody understood what technology would bring to the economy. i think if you were to deflate to 22, which is more i think the level you would find on top, you would find the top in 2000 at around 1,200. with the top at 1,200, you would have a graph more like the one that we see now where the tops in 2007, 2014 will aligned. if you do that, you'll find a figure similar to what we had between 1966 and 1974 where we had also free tops in an expanding cone.

so the question is the following. are we -- did we break out above 1600? did we have a very key breakout lead to go a new cycle or is it going to lead everybody into the economy for another nine months where nobody understands what is going on. and then we will have a correction for one year or two years. >> as yields continue to rise, they are close to 3% in terms of ten year in the west now. at what point will the rising yields choke off the equity valleys at 3.5% and is it 4% very quickly? >> higher. >> higher than that? what about you? >> we have many tests of resilience this year. the next was really ready technically to fall and it didn't fall. so that's one of the first

tests. then we had the debt ceiling and when you see the debt ceiling, could be -- after the news and decided to move. and i know people who told me in disease the market was going to crush. >> it didn't. >> we will see 2000 in 2014. i doubt it will stay there, but i'm sure we will see it because they love big, fat round numbers. >> gentlemen, let's move on to the discussion. tell us if you agree where you see the s&p 500 next year and write into worldwide@cnbc.com. the japanese government has approved the record high 922,000 budget for fiscal 2014.

the story live from tokyo. >> hey, carolin. we will be up 3.5% from this fiscal year as a policy spending such as social security and defend programs will rise to a record high $696 billion. about one-third will be spent on social security. defend sxebd temperatures will rise as japan strengthens defense capabilities to offer greater deterrent for neighboring countries. the government hopes to restore fiscal health by reducing bond issuance by 315 billion. in the meantime, the government releasts monthly economic report today drops the word deflation for the first time in more than four years. the government says the consumer spend sg picking up, but left

the basic assessment for now. back to you. happy holidays. >> happy holidays to you, too. thank you very much for that. still with me is alistair winter. what happens with the nikkei next year? best performance this year since 1972. can you believe it? up 53%. >> yeah. but it's going -- probably looking good for 2014, as well. i think pushed by the dollar/yen exchange rate. the bank of japan, now the taper is going to start, its qe program is the same size as the fed's. that's a lot of money. >> is the boj simply lucky here?

>> no. i think there's always luck, but they are pumping money out. of course, it encourages -- a lot of people like the yen because of the low interest rates, but the carry trade, so they're going to be there. so that is going to keep the yen down. also, you're going to have corporate earnings up in japan. i worry about corporate earnings increases in the u.s. but in japan, that weaker yen is starting to feed through. so i think they'll have some fundamentals in their favor. the big problem with japan, of course, is the demography and who are we to tell people what they should -- but they are very conservative in their secure, jobs security, they like the small farms, there's a vested interest and, of course, they have immigration. they don't like immigration. we like it here, but they really

don't like it there. >> completely different story there. let's come back to the cpi numbers in japan. deflation, very hard to break out for that. why should it be possible this time around? >> i don't think they'll get there. and i noticed the president over there, the government pension fund doesn't think they'll get there, either. >> exactly. >> so i don't think they'll make it. but i think they will keep inflation -- i think they'll probably stop deflation. i think they've probably ended that. that's the result. >> just wonder if that's going to be enough for the markets for the nikkei to continue rallying. >> well, but i think there will be fundamentals there. that's a big stimulus that is announced there. >> it certainly is. >> so when you see what's happening, what the u.s. can't do that. we can't do that.

europe isn't anywhere near that. >> still to come on the show, as gold slips below $1,200, we get a technical view on its fortunes in 2014. coming up after the break. [ male announcer ] for every late night, every weekend worked, every idea sold... ♪ ...you deserve a cadillac, the fastest growing full-line luxury brand

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the emerging markets sell-off was one of the big stories of 2013 as federal reserve tapering developing world investors. ross westgate sat down with matt and francois. losis began by telling us emerging worlds crackdown on businesses was not out of the question. >> emerging markets begin to cool and governments go after western companies, they make for an easy target. sometimes it may be about doing something popular at hope, sometimes it's simply because standards are of higher quality. but once emerging local government goes after western companies, that company home government may go after it, as well. you're looking at big fines, as well as damage to the brand. >> yeah. the one i'm most interested in here is chinese potential for a chinese financial crisis. this is central around concerns

everybody has. how are you assessing the chances of something blowing up? >> history doesn't tend to repeat itself, but it rhymes, right? in china's banks right now, the capital ratios are very low, broadly about 6.5%. you're having a lot of inner bank indigestion. for example, over to summer, we saw libor rates up. we're seeing npls begin to rise. so official estimates put them at less than 1%. but private banks operating in the region are as high as 1%. we've seen this story before and there's reason to plan for it this time around. >> we need to be very careful on this matter on china. nevertheless, we believe that the new government is dealing with the situation quite well. it has been very proactivity. and for the last few months, it's made an issue of dealing

and we believe they have the mix that is the good nicks for the coming quarters. >> and the other one, i find a reduction in oil prices. >> yeah. >> now, you tend to think, you know, a lower price is fairly good for the world. >> it's an event to watch and it's an opportunity. it's the most positive thing we're looking at. but right now, the supply/demand fundamentals don't necessarily reflect the price. energy oil, for example, is trader higher than you would expect, over $100 a barrel. a lot of that haas to do with the political risk we see in the middle east. there's a hunt now between the united states and iran. as that risk dissipates, the price of energy comes down in line with the supply that we see coming on to the u.s. but where it gets interesting is where most of that house hoed hold share is spent on energy. >> that was ross westgate.

meanwhile, 2013 has been a mixed year for nigeria. oil revenues took the hit while the president faces criticism for his response to 4 1/2 year insurgency funding. on the economic front, it was a slightly better story. steve caught up with the nation's finance minister who said nigeria is growing fast, but not quite fast enough. >> well, nigeria is already one of the fastest growing countries in the world. we just saw third quarter gdp growth at 0.8%. and we expect to end the year at about 6.75%. the imf is forecasting higher growth rates. but we think we need to grow faster. in order to make appreciable inroad into eradicating poverty, the world is setting itself a target to eradicate positive by 2013. so we would like to do that. we also want more equal growth. that is growth that creates more jobs for our young people. and is also more incloougz

conclusive so we can reach those re bottom end of the ladder. >> realistically,.0% of your government's revenues are oil based. what chance, really, have you got of moving away from the dependance on oil and gas? >> excellent chances. it used to be 80%. at one point it was 90% a couple of decades ago. so we are making progress, but we want to do that faster. we have enormous growth in agriculture, which have not really been tapped. agriculture is over 40% of gdp and we think that we can turn ta sector around to create jobs. in housing, we've not yet tapped the housing sector at all. we have a dmaend demand for 17 units unfulfilled and adding a million units a year is what is needed to meet the demand. so there's certainly a possibility there. with housing, you create jobs for plumbers, carpenters and all the links.

manufacturing, we have a population of 170 million in large domestic market. >> do you think nigeria is using energy revenues and excess crude account, as well, is lower than it was at the end of last year. but do you think enough of that legacy is being put into many of those issues that you mentioned and may i include, as well, revolution in the power sector. revolution rising infrastructure, rail and roads, all these things are essential to get that investment? >> let me say something. for about three decades, no investment was made in the transfer sector, very little. when the country was under the military rule. if you take your three decades or so to undermine the sector, it will take you quite a bit on of time to restore that. the issue is are you putting in place the right policy to do so? i think that just now under this

administration, there has been considerable progress to not privatize the sector, liberalize it. i think with that program you will see the next five years or so improvement in the sector. that will allow others to benefit and the economy to move much, much better than it has in the past. gold's tour of 2013 looks to continue into year-end as the pressure middle dipped below 1,200 on monday. although support for physical nand has held up, analysts continue to believe gold is overvalued. societe generale has predicted the gold haven is over. joining mess on yet, yassim. how much further does gold have to fall to be a buying opportunity for investors? >> gold is a very interesting

asset because it has no value. it has whatever value you want. it's interesting because in the last few years, the government is -- but the gold, thinking it was a good asset to hedge against inflation, or if this was a good safe haven, then the biggest catalyst that they have to justify that was qe. so they've been very surprised by the move that happened in the last few years because this is anti-qe move and the inflation story is not happening. it is happening in equities, but it is not happening in commodities in general. so i don't know exactly what is the fair value of gold. i know how to trade it in dynamics. so the correction that happened here is a normal correction. it's nothing special. if you look at the first year graph in gold, what you find out is that gold had the -- in '74 and '80. and then you spent years correcting going up 2,000%. since 2000, gold went up 11,000%

or 800% while equities stayed flat. there is a relay between the two. so i don't know exactly what is the long-term -- are you asking. overall, even if the correction carries on, 700 to 900 is a great level to buy strategically. locally, if we go to the second graph, the thing that is interesting on gold is if it was to correct in the next two weeks at 1,000, that's a great buy. >> when would you want to sell again? >> if it doesn't go to 1,000, there is no buy. you don't know where it's going to go. for me, i stay away until it does something interesting. if it goes to 1,000, we see something very interesting and i buy it because i know in the next few months i'm going to have 30 poers, 40% up.

and then i don't know. maybe up from 1,400, 1,500 is very important level now. if it goes above that, you might have more. >> thank you so much for that. gold, the worst performance in about 30 years, i believe, off more than 25%. alistair winter, chief economist is still with us. let's get some final thoughts from you. let's get some trading ideas for the uk markets. you like michael cobb and the -- >> yeah, we are a caps broker, but we have uk, chinese and the u.s. microcaps. and we're finding institution investors are back for the first time really in strength in five years. and there's finding value. it's not just a fashion. they're finding value there. and these are the companies that can -- i mean, growth is the

key. may i say my latin -- >> yes. [ speaking latin ]. which is a reference to a roman minister. growth must be found and you can find growth in microcaps, i believe. i think across all the technologies. basically, they're not constrained. if they can sell, they will get growth and they've got profits. i think there are -- i mean, i think technology stocks much bigger are worth looking at. but they already -- other people got there first. that's something to think about, too. >> very quickly, the ftse has underperformed this year, up only 13% partly because of basic resources. is that going to reverse next year? >> i think. but i wouldn't rush into that. and it will be are emerging markets. i think the final, people will work out what the taper means in

the -- from the states, emerging markets start picking up. i hope the chinese will have sort out out their banking situation and i think that's when the ftse 100 will revise. >> alistair, thank you so much for coming in, shares your thoughts with us for 2014 this morning. happy christmas, happy new year. >> thank you. if you have any questions or comments on what you're seeing on the show, write in to worldwide@cnbc.com. still to come on the show, can retailers bag a successful festive shopping season despite the threat for online buying? we're live in new york for the next hour of "worldwide exchange."

welcome to "worldwide exchange" been i'm carolin roth and these are your headlines from around the world. christmas comes early for u.s. stocks. europe opens on the green on this festive christmas eve. reports show traffic in stores plunges while bad weather in the uk keeps shoppers off of high street. tis the season for deal making. carl icahn is reportedly in talks to buy j&j's blood testing

unit. and the rally is under way as father christmas makes his final preparations before setting off on his global delivery round. all right. from reindeer to the markets, if you are just tuning in, thank you so much for joining us on the show. here is how markets are heading on the show. we're expecting modest gains at the start of the trading session. the dow and the s&p coming in at a five-month high. we saw personal spending slightly better than expected. keep in mind, the s&p 500 up around 27% this year. the ftse cnbc global 300 is looking a bit like this. keep in mind the german, italian and the swiss markets are closed today. people there are celebrating christmas. we've got a couple of markets in europe still open.

like the ftse, the cac 40 and the ibex. but they're closing around noon today. we are seeing some small gains across the board, the cac 40 up by around 0.2%. volumes, a pretty dire show. maybe we'll see some chopping trading throughout the trading session. we did see green arrows across the board, as well. it's worth noting that the nikkei 225 smashed through that 1600 level for the first time in 16,000 level rather for the first time in six years. it will close slightly below that level at 15,889. but still, the highest close in about six years. as we mentioned before this mark, it is up by a whooping 53% year-to-da year-to-date. the shanghai composite up by around 0.1 %. the pboc injecting more liquidity into the market. in the bond markets, the ten-year treasury yields sitting

at 2.93%. treasuries fell yesterday. the belly of the curve is seeing some losses. rising there for the fourth day in a row as investors do seem to price in an earlier rate hike than what the fed has indicated last week. it's a ten-year bund. finally, a quick check of the forex market, we're seeing some dollar strength coming through, partly because we got that slightly better than expected economic data yesterday. the dollar/yen up around 0.2%, back above that 1104 level. so in the spirit of christmas, cnbc has been asking analysts what they are wishing for this festive season. >> my 2014 wish is accountable in washington. u.s. companies have done a great job in returning shareholder equity. now i'd like to see washington return some of that equity to the taxpayer. >> my 2014 wish is to never, ever say taper again.

>> my wish for 2014 is for real economic growth. how do we get there? functional government, real corporate tax reform and, oh, yeah, peace on earth. >> i'm pretty sure that we will hear the word taper again, and tightening, of course. let's give you a look at whaeps on today's agenda in the united states. november durable goods rally at 8:00 a.m. eastern. at 10:00 a.m., we get november new expected home sales. u.s. markets closed early today at 1:00 p.m. eastern. it's looking like u.s. retailers may be getting a lump of coal in their stockings this year shoppertrak says sales fell 3.1% while traffic fell 21%. that's notable since this past weekend was expected to be among the four busiest shomg days in

the season. sales would fall 2.4% and traffic dropped 2% in november and december giant. let's talk more about what is in store for retailers. stacey, retail analyst joins me on set. stacey, good morning to you. were you surprised by those numbers? >> not really. i mean, you know, we went into -- we got out the q3 numbers. all retailers told us at q3 the, things would be messy in q4, watch out for margins, watch out for disappointing sales. then we had all these weather disruptions. sales down the 2%, 3%, that makes sense here. based on the discounts that we're seeing not only in the states, but europe, watch out for those margins. >> margins could suffer, but vowels should be higher, shouldn't they? >> well, i think there's a couple things going on. the holiday started extra early this year. so last friday started almost a week before thanksgiving.

so it was sort of a slow trickle and then we sort of got this -- took a breather, the consumer took a breather. more people are waiting until the last minute to sort of -- the last 25,%, 30% of the shoppers. maybe we'll see a last-minute rush. but, again, here in the uk, the weather is really working against us if you've waited until the last minute. >> so it seems as though what we're seeing is the rates at the bottom in terms of the margins, in terms of pricing. who can survive in this environment? who is going to merge as the winner? can you even say that there is going to be a winner this christmas shopping season? >> yeah. well, the interesting thing is, i think investors, because they're prepared for these terrible margins, we know it, we've talked about it for weeks. maybe retailers get a little bit of a path and then we look forward to next year. you have to think about there's been no apparel cycle this year. the fashion has been terrible. so tons of markdowns in that space. but we need sort of the next cycle. but i think that the winners are

category killers. they're like victoria secret, they're a tjmaxx where the traffic is flowing in. so, you know, you want to stick with the consistent players and the category killers. >> want to come back to the margin, stacey. as you said, we knew margins were going to be weak. as a result of that, are we expecting less pressure on share prices as we see the results trickling in for the christmas -- for the holiday shopping season? do you think we will get the benefit of the dow? do you think they'll get a free pass this time around? >> yes. and i think the great example, if you look at the retail index, it's up 36% to date. the last two quarters, it's terrific. what have we heard from retailers, though? it's a complete disconnect in the last two quarters, business is terrible, traffic is down, margins will be bad, yet these stocks maintain their levels. so i think, yes, you will get intha of a free pass for certain names. you know, you can look at a stock like best buy that has

come back from the death, basically. will they get a passing margin in q4? yes, they will. >> what about jcpenney, the problem child, will they get a free pass? >> no. i think that's a different story. obviously, we had a disaster with ron johnson coming in. they've got back to discounting. certainly they've talked about sales in november. but the question for them is how bad is the profitability of sales? so great. you can start to eek back slight improvement in sales, but they can't be on profitable because then you look at a real cash flow problem. >> looking ahead to next year, how do you survive as a retailer? specifically in the u.s. we have longer opening hours, we know over christmas they're going to be open what, 24 lours? >> right. >> same-day delivery, that's costly, too. and then we've got this push

forward strategy for e-commerce and in-store sales. what do you have to do to be successful? >> a couple things. i think you need the excitement in your product in the apparel space. you need the continual newness and freshness. you need to compete with the fashion guys which is becoming tougher and tougher for the retailer in the u.s. i think that as you pointed out on the ecommerce side, retailers will have to spend more .more money on that. there was a new article talking about retailers having to spend 25% of their cap ex on technology. the winners and the people who have the lead in that space, macy's, great example. >> stacey, thank you so much for coming up the. and coming up on "worldwide

exchange," we're live at a toys r us store. we'll le looking at some of the season's biggest toy trends and what it all means for manufacturers and retailers the. and we've been asking you what is the best toy that you ever received as a present and why? well, we just got in touch on twitter saying his favorite toys are lego and tinker toys. he says you can build anything you can aimagine from them. if you want to join the station, get in touch with us. worldwide@cnbc.com, via twitter, @cnbcwex. stacey, your best toy you ever received? >> oh, gosh, putting me on the spot. >> mine was a game boy, but that was 20 years ago. still to come on the show, we find out how the senior vice president feels about missing out on the ipo of the year.

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christmas comes early for equities as u.s. stocks continue to hit new highs. no presents for retailers, shopping plunging traffic stateside. and big deals remain on the table, carlisle could be set to buy j&j's blood testing unit for $4 billion.

now, it was the most talked about ipo of 2013 and some going public on the new york stock exchange, twitter sales have soared over 40%. we spoke to robert mccouie, senior vice president at the nasdaq about how it felt to miss out on these social offerings of the year. take a listen. >> you compete hard for every single ipo, ross, but once the stigz is made, we move on. as you said, there's 120 ipos that have come to us this year. the last high water mark is 252 back across all the u.s. markets back in '07. we'll surpass that this year. there's a lot of companies gearing up between now and the end of the year and serm for 1 '14. we're well beyond it. >> and that amount that's listed, how many of those exits from private equity companies or venture capitalists? >> well over 50% have some kind of money.

if you take even the earliest stage money, people would say well over 80% of them were funded by some kind of on financial sponsor along the way. some of the bigger ones are taking money out, but a lot of them have been in these deals for a long time, longer than they would have expected because of the crisis that we went through. so earlier this year, we saw hd supply, cdw, norwegian cruise lines, big sponsor back deals and some of the vc deals, the sprout and the noodles of the world. >> and there is a lot of pent up demand. >> '14 still looks like it's going to be a strong year. we're talking about the level of activity. it looks like it's going to continue to stay strong through the balance of this year and then into '14. because of the way the markets have acted, i think there are a number of companies that have moved up their timeline. they made them late '14 and

early '15 and now they're looking at the first half of 2014 to look at an ipo. >> we talk about health keer being a big chunk. how many of these ip os are health care? >> health care was up 250% year over year and 52 total health care, 35 of them were biotech. so we're going through a long stretch of biotech ipos being a single digits and this year, obviously, was a huge number. >> just the general health of the market and where we've come, one wonders whether it can stay this buoyant. >> there is a lot of risk that comes in with ipos. companies are making a leap of faith that these private companies can transition to be public companies and continue to be successful. certainly that risk appetite continues. in a lot of the biotech, there will not be profits for many, many years. and to see so many investors

putting their money on the line is positive. >> very briefly, are the exchanges changing? you lost twitter and then you had things like american airlines and marriott coming to the nasdaq. so it's kind of a -- are we blurring the stingz between exchanges? >> i don't think we're blurring. i think the nasdaq is beginning to resinate with companies that have been listed on our xeter for a long period of time. kraft, the only stock to change xhangs last year, companies that were listed for 20, 30, 50 years on the stock exchange or looking at nasdaq and realizing that we have a great value to provide to them to support them for years and decades to come. still to come, it's all tech this festive season, but will gadget will we be unwrapping tomorrow morning? tom mckensy takes a look at the top devices after this. and we'll leave you with a view of the heat map to see how the

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[ male announcer ] this december, experience the gift of true artistry and some of the best offers of the year at the lexus december to remember sales event. this is the pursuit of perfection. welcome back to the show. let us show you how u.s. futures are shaping up this morning. keep in mind, it is a half day trading session in the u.s. markets just like it is the case

for many of the european markets. the dow jones, nasdaq and s&p 500 are expected to see modest gains up at the start of the trading session. this is after the dow and the s&p 500 hit another record high in yesterday's session partly because consumer confidence rose to a five-month high and personal spending was slightly better than expected. tech is set to be the big winner this season. tom mckenzis has been taking a look at some of the most popular devices on the market right now. organizers expect around 30,000 people to flock through the doors to check out the hottest damages and gizmos for this holiday season. maybe these will make it into your stocking this year. a humanoid robot to fight ors in an organized league. fully modified versions could set you back as much as 5,000 pounds. if that seems steep, why not

build a robot yourself with this, a 3d printer on sale for 300 pounds. if that's all too high tech for you, what about this? paper made from stone that you can write on under water. all well and good, but at this year's gadgets show, there were just two companies that everyone was interested in. in the green corner, microsoft. and in the blue corner, sony. the battle lines have been well and truly drawn this year with ps4 hoping to take a chunk of the market share and prove that you need far more than a tablet to have a deep gaming experience. and over here, we've got the xbox 1, rather bizarrely stuck on the back of a 4x4. that hasn't deterred these gamers. >> you will always have partial gamers that love to have a console, love to have something that gives them more feedback or responsiveness than the actual box itself or game play. >> the thing about an xbox 1,

connected to the cloud with the ridiculous processing capability that brings to them, we're talking about super number crunching levels for gaming. you can't do that on a tablet. >> analysts wait to crunch the sales numbers, there's a new device making inroads. >> the fitness devices are coming fast. i think that's one of the bigger shifts in changes we've seen for 2014. >> there's a lot of excitement around items like this providing items that can make your blood pressure, track your daily activity on a wrist band and feed it into your smartphone or your tablet. and if you need a bit of peer pressure, they've got some scales to send out a tweet out to all your friends with your weight. and, of course, there are gadgets to help you get into shape. >> do you think this is going to be on people's christmas shopping? >> well, i don't know.

i think some lucky people will be getting a nice vibrator for christmas. you see that? >> where do you put all that stuff? that's what i'm wondering. >> a good idea, but problem with space, isn't it? moving on, target's counsel met with attorney generals in states including connecticut, massachusetts and new york. the company said he addressed their concerns about the massive data breach. state officials have asked target to provide more information in which hackers stole as many as 40 million debit and credit cards. target faces now at least 50 and two u.s. senators are asking the federal trade commission to investigate the incident. target fell monday to $50.88. stacey, how big of a hit from a reputational perspective is this to target? >> well, this has happened

before. this happened to tjx. but for target, they've been struggling with traffic trends. so for this to happen on the super start weekend before christmas and make your consumers nervous is really just adding insult to injury to an already challenging traffic trend. >> and there are problems with the expansion into canada, right? was target right to assume that the canadian consumer will behave just like the consumeser? >> they've estimated how sensitive the canadian consumer is. the estimates are twice what they were at the beginning of the year. i think investors are more focused on that and the general trend than the actual breach of security. but it's added insult to injury. >> let's talk about what's happening on this side of the pond. in the uk, we're seeing a dismal

shopping season, but there's the trend of the americanization of christmas shopping. >> yes. >> how is that working out for the u.s. companies or for some of the companies here? how is the uk consumer responding to it? >> well, that's something that we've been talking a lot about is the americanization of the consumer over here. so as of several years ago, you were starting to see the 50% off sides pop up way before christmas and it seems every year now in europe it's getting earlier and earlier. i was just in germany. even more so than in the uk. and i think what that has done in the u.s., basically, it's just pulled sales forward. it's brought margins down to a lower permanent lower state. so if that's the way that it's going over here, we'll see much of the same margin pressure and, really, it's not incremental to sales. you are just bringing everything forward at a cheaper price and a worse margin. >> so that's a vicious cycle to

the downside. who can afford to break out of that? who can afford to actually keep prices stable or maybe even raise them? >> yeah, it is a vicious cycle. and once you go there, so we saw in the states walmart is always the leader. they're going to open earlier and do bigger promotions. once you go there and everybody matches you, it's impossible to go back. so i think, you know, the companies that are able to sort of step out of this are obviously luxury. or a differentiated product like a lululemon. they're coming into the uk and europe. but i think they've obviously had some problems. but your product really has to be that differentiated to demand full price. >> thank you for that. and still to come on the show, what will santa be stuffing stockings with? avo: the volkswagen "sign then drive"

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm carolin roth. these are your headlines from around the world. christmas comes early for new record highs and it's a shortened trading day on this christmas eve. there may be no festive goods for retailers. traffic at u.s. stores plunges while bad weather in the uk keeps shoppers off of high street. and tis the season for deal making. carlisle is reportedly in talks

to buy j&j's blood testing segment for $4 billion. and santa is preparing to set off on his global delivery round. display you're watching "worldwide exchange," bringing you business news from around the globe. and if you're just tuning in, thank you so many for joining us here on this show. it is the final trading day, the final trading hours in europe before we go into the christmas holiday. let's take a look at how the future are doing, the dow, nasdaq and the s&p 500 taking fair value into account are showing we're seeing modest gains at the start of the trading session. for the u.s. session, as it is the case for the european market, we're seeing a half day trading session. u.s. markets seeing another record high as far as the s&p and the dow were concerned. the ftse cnbc global 300 this morning, pretty much flat. keep in mind, the italian and

swiss markets, they're closed today. the stocks yesterday closing at a record high. ftse 100 showing gains of 1%. and we're seeing similar gains for the ibex and the cac 40. the clock is ticking with just hours to go on christmas day. u.s. retail sales have been slump, stores pulling out on the stocks. and it's not just heavy discounts. many retailers have their elves literally working around the clock. sara issen is outside a store in new jersey. sara. >> good to see you. it is toys r us and the kohl's behind me open 24 hours. it's a new phenomenon. it's 5:30 a.m. and the parking lot, 50 to 60 cars. so there are people inside shopping and they're coming out with pretty full shopping cars. i mentioned toys r us, i mentioned kohl's. both of them have been pretty

much opened for days on end. kohl's is doing this for the first time. it's been open since friday. select macy's stores have been open since friday. toys r us has been open for 72 thundershowers. why the strategy? first of all, the consumer is still a bit sluggish. we just got new numbers from shoppertrak showing last week traffic down 20% from the same time last year. that includes the all important weekend before christmas. so you have the consumer issues. you have an unusually short shopping season. six days shortser this year between thanksgiving and christmas. so the retailers really need to squeeze out the same number of sales in a shorter amount of time. that helps explained the 24-hour shopping and, of course, online is very popular this year. done assumers are just getting used to this whenever whatever you want mentality 24 hours. so the retailers have to

compete. >> the indication that the 24/7 strategy is paying off for the likes of toys r us? >> it's a good question. analysts are pretty skeptical about this. i was thinking yesterday to dana telsey, well known retail analyst, she says it's not convinced that it pays off. consumers have the same amount of money in their wallet, that they're allocating to spend. perhaps it just shifted around a little bit on the time frame. as i said, people are inside shopping. we also talk to macy's about this question because they've been doing this since back in 2006 and they have seen enormous success. they said they've seen the success, they've seen it start to happen. here is the exact quote here, we've made it into a holiday tradition. our shoppers love that we give them options especially with late night and early morning hours. so far, carolin, the numbers have been sluggish on brick &

mortar. we'll see if it's last minute 24-hour around the clos clock crazy marathon helps speed things up for them. >> sara, thanks so much for that. definitely some busy elves in new york. thank you so much for that and happy holidays. lori joins us now from new york. stacey is still with us. lori, good morning to you and merry christmas to you, as well. >> good morning. >> what is the must-have toy this christmas season? >> well, actually, there isn't just one hot toy this christmas season. there's really a lot of them. and it makes for an interesting holiday season. it's not like everyone is running to get that one thing. but having said that, i will say tablets and technology are certainly topping kids' wish list these year. so, you know, there's a lot of big trends out. and you need to know what your kids are passionate about when you go shopping. >> does tech automatically mean that the presents are going to be more expensive or can you

still get away, if you're cash strapped, maybe have a limited budget, can you still get away and get some nice presents for the kids and please them, too? >> you can. you're going to find things in every single price range. when we're talking about tablets, you are looking at tablets somewhere between 79 up to about $350. there's a couple of different kinds of tablets, tablets for toddlers, tablets for families. but that doesn't mean you can't find great gifts this holiday season. for under $10 and $15, it depends on what you're looking for. if you're looking for great things, you'll find them earn $20. collectibles, $399 to about $999. so there's something for everybody and every budget. >> lori, there was a study saying 30% of people they talk to are going to spend less on toys this year.

how much do you think that the technology products are eating into this? >> well, the tech, the tablet and tech from november last year to this year is up 33%. so it is eating into the what kids' play things are these days. if you look at the tablet, kids are looking at what mom and dad have. they want the same things. so for our toddlers, you're looking at the leappad ultra or the innotab 3s. but you're going to spend some money on these. when you look at family tablets, you're looking at the line of kirios or from vivitar and the camilla. again, for the entire family so everyone can share it, but those are bigger ticket items as compared to dolls that you'll pick up for $1999 or craft items

or some of the retrothings. >> lori, some of the conversation that i've heard out there is manufacturers are almost afraid to spend, you know, on big products, the must-have products in innovation because they see technology eating into the toy space. who is being most innovative from your perspective? >> a lot of companies are doing a lot of great things. one side, take the fact that parents like me love a well balanced toy box for their kids. so you're going to look at technology because it's part of our life. but you're also going to look at more traditional kind of play. and you're seeing some interesting things happen. there's a video game called minecraft. so, you know, kids are loving the it, they're into it, but you want to take your kids away from the screen. you have companies like lego, creating lego sets around minecraft and smaller companies like jazzwares developing things like paper craft. so kids are actually making crafts.

and, again, at that much lower price point. but, you know, on the other hand, you have companies like mattel and hasbro doing some cool and innovative things. both of them have made toys that stand alone as a great toy, but also have that innovation in it. hasbro introduced star wars telepods out this year. first month out, they sold over a million pieces. but what happened with that is kids can actually build this telepod set and not use the mobile device that it goes with. because these will sort of jump into the game mobley. but they can just use it on its own. so it's a great way for kids to build, to have traditional play and to add technology. mattel has a disney ultimate dream castle. it is a magnificent doll house that the kids can play with. but you can download a free app and suddenly it becomes magical.

it's enhanced play. it's added play to the actually toy itself. >> lori, i'm pretty sure that i would have liked the dream castle. but for my nieces -- i don't have any kids myself yet, but for my nieces, i bought stickers and nothing that has anything to do with tech. is it still possible to make a living as a manufacturer, as a retailer in this space if you not invest in tech, if you only sell board games? >> i'm going to have to sight rainbow loom, which is one of the hottest toys this holiday season. you're looking at a loom that kids are actually crafting rubber band bracelets and, you know, necklaces and stuff out of. so there's absolutely no batteries, no technology, and it's a reminder that that craft area is an important one and it's a great one. rain boy loom is a great example, but megibrands has rose art.

they just put out a brand new compound where kids are putting transfers on to the dough. look at crayola. they always come out with fabulous ideas. this year they came out with a markermaker. one of my favorites is the melt and mould crayon factory. so there's plenty of nonpet choices and a lot of the retrotoiz toys coming out. teenage mutant ninja turtles. nick doc mcstuff yips. and dolls are up 1% this year, which doesn't seem like a lot, but it's a big market. >> maybe it's not all about tech after all. thank you so much for that, lori.

the carlyle group is reportedly in exclusive talks to buy johnson and johnson's blood testing unit. "the wall street journal" says the business is expected to fetch about $4 billion. j&j's clinical diagnostics make tech that shows a person's blood type. j&j closing down fractionally on monday. meanwhile, the new york stock exchange has filed a proposal for u.s. regulators to offer firms a jail switch to help catch trading errors. member companies would have the option to pretest certain trading thresholds that would block orders with the hits. they can choose to have alerts sent to them as they approach or breach the limits. the kill switch is meant to be a back stop, but trading or monitoring risk management procedures. less than two weeks after hilton went public, la quinta is filing an ipo.

that allows companies to submit registration documents, but keep information such as price range out of the public eye. la quinta operates more than 8el 00 hotels in the u.s. and if you can't wait for santa claus to deliver presents to your house, track where he is al at all times today. norad has its annual santa tracker up and running online. the tradition began in 1955 when a misprint of the phone number for kids to call santa, instead getting norad's operations hot line. the man in charge there tracked radar and gave updates to any children that called. not a bad idea, is it? come up, the chairman -- the co-founder of twitter and ceo

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good morning, everyone. christmas comes early as as stocks continue at new highs.

reports show plunging stops traffic stateside. and big deals remain on the table despite the festive season. carl likely could be set to buy j&j's blood testing unit for $4 billion. and disney in the news, disney makes a few executive decisions regarding the pay of its ceo. jackie deang his has the story like from cnbc's headquarters. >> good morning, carol carolin. disney slashing bob iger's fiscal 2013 pay by about 15%. in an s.e.c. filing, iger's bonus is being reduced by $3 million. that's because disney's strong results didn't outperform iger's targets as well as they did in do 12. those mashs include operating income, return on invested capital. iger's lower salary includes what the company says is a hike

in the discount rate causing a change in the value of his pension benefits. disney's board isn't change iger's annual $2.5 million salary last year. iger's pay has been enough of contention. more than 40% of shareholders voted against a nonbinding say on pay resolution this year. the board is getting a new member, as well. jack dorsey has been named as an independent investor. at 36 years oeld old, dorsey, the ceo of payment start up square is by far the youngest member of the board. he's going to replace judith estran who is retiring from the boston next year. disney shares having a strong day closing up 1.2% on monday. carolin, back to you and happy holidays. >> the same to you. happy holidays, jackie. coming up after the break,

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good morning, everyone. many markets are closed ahead of the christmas holiday, but the ones that are open are showing positive moves. ftse 100 up by 0.3%. the xetra dax is closed today, but yesterday it reached a new high at 9,488. european markets reached a new high yesterday. let's take a look at what's on the agenda in the united states. november durable goods are out at 8:30 a.m. eastern. demand for big ticket items is

forecast to rise by 2%. at 10:00 a.m., we get november new home sales expected to drop nearly 1 %. a reminder, u.s. markets closed early today at 1:00 p.m. eastern. and let's take a look at how u.s. futures are shaping up. taking fair value into account, the dow, nasdaq and the s&p 500 are said to see modest games at the top of the trading session. i just want to remind you it is a half day trading session today. tom anderson, from boston, joins us now. stacey is still with me, as well. tom, good morning to you. it's hard to argue against the bull at this point. where do you see markets going in 2014? >> well, you're right. it really is hard to argue against what we saw in 2013. tremendous equity performance, you have most portfolios we're managing for high net worth individuals, are up 30% or so on the equity side.

in line are slightly better than the market. i think what we are really trying to do and we advise our clients currently is let's not be too greedy. let's appreciate the gifts we got this year, how strong those returns have been and let's not assume we're going to see something like it in 2014. it's an opportunity to reassess risk in our portfolios and make sure we're in good standing in terms of the risk level. >> does that mean you want to take profit on some of your risky positions or do you want to change your asset allocation going back into bonds, even inspect. >> a little bit of both, actually. the way i would look at it is going into 2014, i think really we haven't seen much in the way of, you know, losses that people can take to counteract gains and portfolios. so i think a lot of gain taking

will get pushed off into early january. but we think that's a good time to reset portfolios back towards your strategic asset allocation. if you were in a 50% equities/40% bondel allocation going into this year, you're probably closer to 60% equities right now. it's a good time to step back .make sure that's where you want to be. the other thing we would advise is there are ways to participate in the equity market that can have a lower volatility going into 2014. and a different oriented approach has something for investors. >> companies are paying dividends at a 5 -year high. do you expect that number to go up in 2014 and which are some of the names that you want to be invested in in terms of your dividend paying strategy?

>> great question. we've certainly seen that we think companies have become more and more shareholder friendly that way in terms of returning dividends to investors, increasing these payouts. there are names like via corp. and as well as names that have done well for them. we recently held general electric to our holdings. they recently increased their dividends about 16%. is and he think that's part of our focus. looking for names that are paying growing dividend

extremeextreme streams. >> thank you for that. earlier, we asked you about the best toy you ever received and why. anders suggested his first five gallon fish tank. that interest has lasted a lifetime. stacey is still with me. what's the most outrageous gift for this year? >> neiman marcus does it every year for their catalogs. this year they have the falconry training set. but it's $150,000 and you even get a little -- a pressure skin helmet, you get a perch, a cigar case. >> and that's how much? $150,000. and the other one that you and i would probably wish for more is the roughing it diamonds experience for $1.8 million. you receive a rough 25 karat diamond and you can go to

namibia and have it cut to your liking. >> thanks so much for that, i'm carolin roth. happy holidays .merry christmas, everyone. i'm see you on friday.

good morning. the day's top stories, it's the final christmas shopping rush. retailers staying open around the clock. in global news, china's central bank injecting nearly $5 billion in the financial system in a bid to end the cash crunch. plus, here at home, stocks rising to record levels. is it possible the nasdaq actually matches those late '90 levels? we're getting close, tuesday, december 24th, 2013. "squawk box" begins right now.

good morning and welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen, who is laughing already. michelle caruso cabrera. becky quick is enjoying a day off on this christmas eve day. nymex trading ends at 4:30 eastern with gold trading finishing an hour later and electronic nymex trading connects at 5:15 eastern time. there is a lot to get in before the data front. november november durable goods is hitting the tape at 8:30 eastern time. the headline number there expected to rise by 2%. coming at 10:00 a.m., last month's new home sales and the richmond fed survey. the dow transports the s&p 500 and the russell 2,000 closing at record highs yesterday. the nasdaq ending the day at its