>> lots of ipos and profits. ♪ good-bye yellow brick road ♪ saturday night's all right for fighting ♪ >> happy new year. >> happy new year. >> join us thursday. happy new year. "squawk on the street"'s next. ♪ ♪ >> 29%, that is the s&p's gain for the year as we wrap up 2013 today. i'm carl quintanilla with simon hobbs, david faber at the new york stock exchange. cramer is off today. home prices are out. we'll talk to robert shiller about them before the opening bell. futures still holding above fair value, the dow shooting for its 52nd record of the year. it is a regular close today, 4

p.m. eastern time. ten-year yield still a shade below 3%. germany, italy, switzerland all closed today. london did just wrap up an early close with a 14% gain for the year. stocks are set to open up high again today. >> streaming video getting a little bit cheaper. will it be a hit? netflix working on a lower price plan that only lets you watch on one screen at a time. >> and the surge in home prices continue. prices in october did jump over 13% year-on-year. that's the highest gain since february '06. robert shiller is here to tell us exactly what we need to know. the dow up nearly 26%, s&p up 9, the nasdaq 38% this year. the dow is on pace for its best year since '96, s&p the best

since '97. all the coverage is trying to take stock of what went right? or is it fewer things going wrong? david kelly in "usa today" saying "it was the downsizing of fear that allowed money to come back in the market." >> it's interesting when you talk about that downsizing, we have not seen the broader participation of the retailer. we started to see inflows but nothing like you would have anticipated. we've had a pretty good move since let's call it march of '09 and only recent lip has retailed seemed to get in the game, although etfs have taken in a lot of money and perhaps we should be more focused on that when we judge the overall participation. >> i was speaking with the head of jpmorgan and he was saying it's important that the retail investors continues to come back in. that's the inflexion point they

would make note of. >> they always get the memo late, don't they? that's the problem. >> i guess so. but it seemed like a huge amount of optimism this is going to continue for some years, it would appear, if you read what everyone is writing at the moment. >> when has everyone been write right. >> i would be careful. >> whether it's the boston bombing, syria, all the countries in europe that managed to be resilient, cypress, greece, italy, portugal, s.e.c., stock exchange glitches, a shotdown here in the united states, ipos that may or may not have managed to get done. >> black sten, while of course hilton we think of, there were any number of -- a couple of

real estate related ones. you it has been. it funny, over the last couple of years when you see a delaugh rejing ipo, one from private equity or or being raised with paying down debt, the likes of a twitter, which is still one of the best ones we've seen in quite some time but this year everybody liked almost everything that came public. almost. not everything but almost. >> 26 minutes until we start trading for the last session of 2013. ron, where do you think we will go next year? >> i think the big issue i wrestled with and we wrestled with coming into the end of the year is what kind of probability do you put on a recession in

2014? it's probably the lowest probability of a recession that we've had since the recovery started. it's unlikely the stock market will have a bear market until we have a recession that really reduces earnings. that said, because the economy is doing so much better, this will be a mush more nuanced year. this is a year in our judgment where recovery will be felt on main street and the fed will have much more difficult decisions to make as to the speed at which they taper. so my guess is that this is quite typical that, good years follow great years. we've had a great year. we're likely to have a good year but risk management and some kind of an air pocket during the year are likely to happen. >> john, some of the big names, barclays, goldman, citi are

suggesting this market will only gain 3% next year. what do you think? >> i think obviously this is a bull market. so what i'm forecasting is a continuation of this bull market, at least until we reach some kind of modest overvaluation. because right now we're at fair value. as i look at it, it hard to do one year at a time. but if we're look out three years, we're likely to have at least one, two, or three points or more of market multiple expansion and each is worth about 120 points on the s&p index. and the stronger economy we just referred to, i think it's for real and we'll have at least 6% to 7% earnings growth over those three years, which is really just close to the historic average. that's worth about 350 points on the s&p 500. >> i don't want to get too technical on multiple expansions but why would people pay more for a given earning stream when

there are not that many people that are pessimistic at the moment? >> i would argue that they wouldn't. >> i'm sorry, to john. please pick that up. >> you talked about confidence before we came on and i think that's the big thing. i mean, people have bain voiding stocks -- investors have been avoiding stocks for five years. now we're seeing inflows and the confidence builds on itself. it's just the typical thing, simon, in a bull market that we get to fair value but almost every bull market gets to at least modest valuation before it's over. >> jon merrill and john smith. i want to get to share of hertz

this morning. the company yesterday put out an unexpected press release announcing had what the 10% threshold. why is this interesting? well, we've seen it in a number of cases recently because it's been a sign that the company believes activism is not far from its doorstep. in this case hertz in its press release says it has observed unusual and substantial activity in the company's shares. >> ackman did come very soon after and did agree to a deal with the company before entering a big proxy fight.

who will hologic, only they came too late. who is that activist as we look at mr. icahn's bearded face? it's got to be a big guy. in this case given the size of hertz at $ 11.6 billion market value, to put it in at 10%, you're talking about somebody they believe can have taken as much as a $1.1, $1.2 billion position, so therefore, it's got to be a bigger fund. you're talk we'll see who comes to the fore here, if anyone. can i not tell you specifically at think th point or i've not been able to identify what activist it is they believe is responsible for this unusual and

substantial activity, though interesting to know the stop has been a name that's been around. the interesting, though, guys they came public in a way with this press release instead of doing it quietly, talk about all of these things. the expectations i've been able to have is there may very well be a large activist in hertz, who is girding for a fight. the company hoping that it part enough ahead of them or at lease but it is similar to where.

in this case hertz may choose to stand and fight. when you look back at the performance of the stock, it been pretty good. so we'll see what develops here. but did want to mention on hertz, for those who are interested, yet another potential activist situation developing. >> kind of refreshing they come out and say this is what we're seeing, even though it's a little odd. >> they have to tell the market they've got that deal in place. >> they could have chosen to put a poison pill in and say nothing more about it. i don't know how close activist it. i don't know they're exactly certain how big they've gotten. >> egot to 9.8%. >> but this is an born and as mk

has put inover night by the way, there's no suitor for hertz. so a lot of the focus does seem to be on capital return but also on this equipment businessing less al when we come back. >> by the way, here's a look at how the home sector has fared this year. if you had picked one at the beginning of the year to go negative, you'd be out because not a single one did. a lot more "squawk on the street" live from post 9 in a moment. ♪ although easier to get a new ,

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♪ ♪ gordon's ready for the new year. thanks, gordon. the highest gains in home prices. but there are signs the boom is

fading. here first is robert shiller, the founder of the case-shiller index. it's good to have you this morning. >> good morning. >> these numbers are incredible. but blitzer says in the release we are living on borrowed time and the boom is fading. how does he get to that? how do you get to that? >> we have a futures market at chicago. the futures market does show it fading a bit. but it's predicting the increase won't stop until after 2018. i still we still have time to go but it might be weaker. >> baron's over the weekend talked about price growth in 2014 being modest, positive but modest, that's where you guys were tomming down to. can that be sustained in the face of higher rates. >> >> i imagine so. i think these markets are

substantial. they have a lot of momentum. the housing market is fundamentally different from the stock market. we hope to change that if we could get -- things are changing but there has been tremendous momentum in the housing market. things are changing, like blackstone's reit and the market might show less momentum than it has in the past. >> we keep talking the degree to which first-time buyers are locked out, the degree to which the high end is where all the action is and people who already have a home, graduating into a larger, more expensive home, is that trend going to remain i

in especially big homes farp away from the center city. i think there's a new urbanism afloat. housing is not monoit lick. i think this might be a tread toward more urban living and less suburban living. >> we're in a period of time where most of us have not seen before, very little inflation and very little wage growth. >> well, it doesn't sound good, tothe market coral we had the haunting at the beginning of the session around 210. >> and as an economics

professor, if you go pa because they were fixed assets, they would hold their value and if not, do better than that. now that we've been through this and gold in particular has had a very bad year, what do you think about those theories? >> about a theory about gold -- >> about fixed assets in general. >> yeah. i'm a behavioral economist and i think that confidence plays a huge role. but confidence isn't a monolithic thing. it depends on theories. i find it very hard to predict the gold market. i've never really tried to do that.

>> we're sort of in the possible beginning of another housing bubble. i don't see it related to the other assets you describe. there's a great piece this morning on the daily beast talking about what they call the decline of financial failure in this past year. you look at the resilience of europe, fewer bank busts, fewer bankruptcies, fewer foreclosures. just the sheer though confidence hasn't really come back. that's the problem. >> well week do have record high at least consumer confidence, right? >> it's coming out this morning later, isn't it? the new number. but i haven't -- >> we'll get confidence report today, yes.

>> i have my own confidence report. you can see it on my web site. i don't see any big return to confidence at the moment. >> robert, on that note we'll see what 2014 does bring us. thanks as always being with us. we'll see you next year. >> next year. >> what does veteran trader art cash cashin watch? this. at bny mellon, our business is investments. managing them, moving them, making them work. we oversee 20% of the world's financial assets. and that gives us scale and insight no one else has. investment management combined with investment servicing. bringing the power of investments to people's lives.

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♪ waiting for tonight, oh, i've dreamed of this love for so long ♪ >> let's bring in art cashin, director of floor operation with ubs. we don't plan these in advance. i'll throw one at you, give you a second here. i love when you come up with one where there could be a surprise. but anything come to mind when you think about next year that would be unexpected but something we should keep in mind as a surprise that would have broad impact? >> i think it is the relationship of the bond market to the fed. that they're expecting that they're going to be able to work out of this thing slowly, quietly and effectively. and the bond market is giving some signs that they're not quite so sure about that. so the two things i would be concerned about is if the bond

market began to step out on its own and began to raise rates a little faster and a little further than the fed would prefer. and something else that i've discussed on "squawk on the street" before, the embarrassment of success. if suddenly money gained velocity, if banks started lending aggressively and people began spending, then those trillions of dollars resting in the fed vaults in the names of the banks could become inflationary tinder and that could cause the fed to taper at a far more accelerated rate. so those are two things relating to interest rates that is my concern. >> for today gold is not reflecting that at all, 1186 on strong volume, first decline since 2000? >> i would watch it. it's very close to the year's

low, which was right around 1180 or so. you've got the excuse of tax loss selling. last day of the year, last chance to take it. everything fits right in and i agree with you, been no sign of inflation yet. that's one of the reasons that gold is having such an awful year. >> people want to know what your drink of choice is tonight at midnight. >> well, i consider new year'sy to be amateur season. we professionals is stick with the drink of choice. i have a champagne tie with c k corks popping all over and i hope that's a sign that the markets will pop very readily. >> thank you. we'll see you very shortly in the new year. we'll see the opening bell for this last day of trading in 2013 in just a few minutes.

"squawk on the street" is back after this.

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>> i didn't know, simon will watch everybody else. >>ure so close by. >> it's cold and you know.

a lot to look forward to. in the meantime, looking at some of those names that might move, we haven't mentioned hp, david, and the renewed estimates of how many people they may lay off by next year. >> they've always had a target that might have been as high as low 30s. they got more i think participants than they originally anticipated in terms of taking early retirement and things of that nature, but they are getting close to that 34,000 mark i think is what it will end up being, although again i do want to get a little more

clarification. but there were some stories out there about that. as for the stock, it's been an extraordinarily good year. it's up 97% this year. coming off last -- the last quarter, which was better than anticipated but still trying to keep the bar low. 2014 the key year. meg whitman has said it time and again, that they've got a good grip on the turn around. >> you can go to your screen, we're talking s&p'ers here. who would have expected that? it's like the carolina panthers of business. >> one of the second largest department stores has warned it has too much inventory. i wonder about best buy, whether

they have to follow in those shoes. >> whether it's the tesla, people talk to twitter as one of the highest ipos and although we've been around the block and back, $63 is a gain of about 3%. but this was $74 just a few days ago. >> what was the first trade on twitter, carl? was it 45? >> priced at 28, somewhere around 48. not quite 50 as i recall. >> it's funny, having a conversation this morning with one of the few hedge fund managers able to come to the phone about why you would want to own it here. i guess if you believe, as we talk so often that they are just at the cusp of figuring out their business model, and it's

exciting a lot of investors out there, do you believe it will be a hundred dollars stock by 2016, perhaps you still are happy to buy here and see what would be a little more than a 10% plus return until that year. it's anybody's guess at this point in terms of valuation. >> it's gone from 20 to 30 to 42. just amazing swings. paper wealth created by the stock market this year, $5.3 trillion, according to wilshire. >> it's getting toward real money. >> yeah. >> did want to mention hertz. i wanted to get to bob pisani. company puts the poison pill in. my expectation based on reporting is you may see evidence of a large, well-known activist. the key argument being made from those who would want to see the company do something is to split off its equipment leasing

business. it's a very capital entensive business. so you would not only benefit, they say, from the splitoff, which might be worth as much as $4 billion if they do that, based on about five times ebidta, but you would be able to leverage up the company's balance sheet more because you would be leveraging up the capital more, be able to add more leverage and be able to buy back an enormous amount of stock. when we talk about 2013, the key is how much stock has been bought back by corporations -- >> i did ask the ceo of hertz to come on today but he declined. >> bob pisani is on the floor watching what's happening. >> we're up in record territory. but it's been record territory for a lot of sectors. we talk about the s&p for the best year since 1997 with a 29%

gain. remember japan up 56%, france and the u.k., best year since 2009. emerging markets were the exception. they didn't do very well in 2013. china had the worst year since 2011 and brazil down 15%, also the wors2011. let's talk about home prices. i used to be aeal estate reporter a long, long time ago, my family is still in that business. while we had a 13.6 rise year over year in home prizes, there's a slow down in home price gains. my wife has been a real estate agent in philadelphia. he said her biggest problem is convincing sellers they shouldn't keep raising prices. they raised them aggressively

and there was some pushback from home buyers. and the same thing with the building products industry, some of them outperformed the s&p, by by and large, sherwin-williams, armstrong, they were more typical up in the high teens. the vix index spiked up almost 9%. people were say what's going on? is there something we don't know about. this is a seasonal concern. fear indicator. we've had a dead week here, guys, where there's not up going on. traditionally vix drops during this week. simon, this first week of 2014 is traditionally the most volatile week in the first half of the year. i expect the vix to pop up to around 15 to 20 sometime in the next week.

>> thank you very much, bob. let's go to chicago and bring in rick santelli and see what they're talking about there in the pits. >> made be the last trading day of the year but, boy, this can be an exciting half of day. if you look at intra days at 5s and 10s, where are we going to close out 2013, especially on the 10-year, a 3 handle or not? it's already been snugging up to the 3. you can see we continue to flirt with the summer of 2011 on the closing camps. let's switch gears to foreign exchange. a very hot trade going on despite the fact that many think, hey, there's nothing left, the year's almost over. look at a two-day clart of the euro versus the dollar. yes, it has drifted away from the 138 handle. open the chart up and we're just

a whisker of comping back to the t 10-year. look at this two-day chart, it still has upward momentum, hot, hot, hot, open that chart up. fresh highs, comping back to the summer of 2011. back to you. >> thank you very much, rick santelli. thankfully i do not have to do one of those predictions for the new year in terms of what i expect because i would invariably be wrong. but i can tell you to expect a couple of things on the deal front that we've been talking about a great deal here at "squawk on the street" when it comes to telecom and media. as we head into the first quarter of next year, we do need to keep an eye on two potential deals, the likes of which we both heard a good deal about. first of all on t-mobile and sprint. sprint shares have moved up recently in part on hopes, i guess, that they would strike

some sort of a potential deal with t-mobile. what i can tell you as we head into q-1 is there does seem to be a real strong attempt being made getting deutsche telecom to the table to negotiate a potential deal. and they want to get it done, if they can, as quickly as possible. the key here will still be what deutsche telecom believes are the regulatory impediments, whether it's willing to take the risk on a deal, something it's done once with at&t and not seen come to fruition. will it choose to do so? does it still feel as though it wants to exit the u.s. and its 67-plus percent ownership that it has? and what will anti-trust regulators and the fcc have to say about a potential deal? we do expect they will try to move forward in that conversation.

and structure of it and what you were able to offer deutsche telecom will certainly be a key part of that. >> as we begin the new year, we certainly want to keep a close eye on time warner cable, as we know charter and liberty continue to keep a close eye. the window for the nominating deadline for the board opens january 15th, closes the middle of february. that will be key. will charter and liberty try to do something on their own or rely on shareholders in time warner stock to do something for them? when le they come with a significant proposal? what will it look like? i have a feeling we'll be busy on all of those fronts in the not too distant future. >> give your phone the day off tomorrow because it going to need the rest in the next 12

months. >> phillips the official partier of the lighting of the times square ball. let's welcome the ceo of phillips. >> thank you. happy to be here. >> i was reading the first ball had a hundred bulbs. a few more now, right? >> just a few. >> how many? >> over 32,000. this year we wanted to highlight this with our award winning hue technology. it builds intelligence and digitization. one of the four will be lit through a smart device to bring

in 24 colors. what you have see here is our new slim style 60-watt equivalent that has the exact same technology, led electionion that is in the ball and people can essentially use it for their home. lasts 25 times. >> i talk about the transformation that is happening in lighting. look, lighting unions used to be a stagnant, mundane proposition. it's transitioning to much more of a durable good where the internet of things is being embedded in the lighting. so you can do so many things with it. >> this lasts for 23 years? >> yes. >> so i interrupted you. what can you connect to and do? >> so the intelligence is really about creating different

position abiliti possibilities. so what you will see is all of the internet of things is coming to lighting and all the possibilities that come along with that. innovation and technology has always been part of the phillips dna and we'll really raising the bar -- >> if you're not selling a disposable product anymore, what are you going to sell into that -- i'm going to have this in my house for 23 years. i'm not did -- the intelligence in the bulb, in the lamp, whether it's commercially or from a consumer perspective, it alouchs to you do multiple things that you can't do now, things like immediate demand and response, the ability to peak shade lows -- >> one reason homes are using

less energy than they have in ten years. retail, it's not 23 times the price of the old bulb. >> under $10. and come march it will be energy star so it will be probably close to half that come march. >>. >> we have some news on manufacturing. let's get to rick santelli. >> and the survey says, it dropped under 60, 59.1, production dropped to well under 60 at 57.9, new orders down 8.1 at 60.7, employment minus 9.3 at 51.6, lowest since april of 2013. if you go back to march of 2011, we have the person from the

number crunching unit itself. what do you see on the horizon for 2014? give me a quick postmortem on this data? >> if you look at the numbers, they're pretty solid. rotating in the high 50s, 60s. last year we were at 50.0 to end the year. we would have been thrilled with high 50s and 60s. >> you bring up a great point, alice. we're really lofty. if you look at this month, we definitely lost ground. but in the grand progress, we made progress in 2013. what are you seeing for 2014? >> in december we had a lot of unplanned orders. there was a huge push to get things packaged up and out the doors. it depleted inventorienventorie lowest since july. there is going to be another

inventory rebuild. there are inventories in transit. chinese new year was well planned for. there's things coming in in january. we will see another inventory rebuild. it won't be as big as what we saw. >> after seeing a 4 handle on gdp pretty much because of invento inventory, inventory should be the word for 2014. thanks for taking the time. happy new year. back to you. >> still ahead, we'll talk to the man who designed the times square ball, fred curtis of waterford crystal. a lot more "squawk on the street." back in a minute. tokyo's new year's eve happens in about 30 minutes. bny mellon combines investment management & investment servicing,

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welcome back to "squawk on the street," i'm jackie deangelis at the nymex. traders are saying the technical setup for this was anticipated, they are expecting to see a little bit more selling pressure. they're also saying it's the stronger dollar impacting today and a little repositions, the end of the quarter and end of the year. gold on everybody's radar, slipping under $1,200 an ounce, hitting a lower level not seen since earlier in year in july. traders saying they're looking for inflation next year to bring the gold trade back to life. not sure if they're going to get it. see reeg positioning here before the end of the year as well. a 30% gold drop. back to you. bad year for gold. >> many of this year's ipos came

with a lot of hype and big first day gains. which came out on top? the best and worst of the ipos of 2013 up next. i always say be the man with the plan but with less energy, moodiness, and a low sex drive, i had to do something. i saw my doctor. a blood test showed it was low testosterone, not age. we talked about axiron the only underarm low t treatment that can restore t levels to normal in about two weeks in most men. axiron is not for use in women or anyone younger than 18 or men with prostate or breast cancer. women, especially those who are or who may become pregnant,

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jim cramer is back on thursday, but we're excited to let you know his new book "get rich carefully" is now on sale, already the number one book on amazon and kindle. i have no idea how he has time to write a book. >> he did tweet a nice picture of himself in mexico outside of starbucks, arguing that starbucks will climb. >> which ipos performed the best? dominic chu has more on that. happy new year, dom. >> happy new year, carl and gang. when 2013 closes its books, it will be a huge year. the ipos can do relatively well. according to renaissance market to tracks this market, 300 ipos priced $100 million or more,

over 100 more than last year. among the better performing ones, take a look at some of these. the container store up 155% since it went public. a lot of people want those storage or tupperware containers. up next, voxeljet. and another one, gw pharmaceutical and another cancer company here up 400%, insys. we could expect a lot more of those to come up, if the market stays stable, names expected names of king.com, the makers of

the candy crush video games and coupons.com, coming out possibly in 2014 if the markets stay stable, solid and economic improvement, we could see a lot more ipos coming up in 2014 as well. >> thank you, dom. when we come back, we'll take you live to tokyo in just a moment. [ male announcer ] the parking lot helps by letting us know who's coming. the carts keep everyone on the right track. the power tools introduce themselves. all the bits and bulbs keep themselves stocked. and the doors even handle the checkout so we can work on that thing that's stuck in the thing. [ female announcer ] today, cisco is connecting the internet of everything. so everyone goes home happy.

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a live picture of tokyo here, where they're about to celebrate new year's in 3, 2, 1. that's what a seven-second delay will get you around the world. the monks ringing in the new year. they have a lot to celebrate, the nikkei, far and away the best performing index. you have to go back to nixon to

get a gain like that. >> phenomenal, phenomenal year. >> let's get to rick santelli. >> conference sports, december read on confidence, the final number of the year, 78.1. it certainly pleblows away our t look for november. the lowest read of the year happened to have been the first month of the year in january, 58. strongest read, mid year in june at 82.1. we continue to be in the upper echelon. maybe it wasn't the biggest number of the year but it certainly is significantly larger than where we finished off last year, carl, at 66.7. simon, back to you. >> thank you, rick. as a strong year for the markets draw to a close, let's take a look at what's ahead for 2014. scott joins us from wells fargo.

>> hi, simon, how are you? >> i'm thinking about next year. what do you think? >> since august we've had a year-end target for 2014 of 1850 to 1900. we're pretty close to the bottom end of that range. i think and we've been telling our clients all along we may be a little conservative in our target and in our earnings estimates. i think there's a little bit of room to the up side but not a lot. >> are you basically saying that the market isn't going to go very far next year? >> based on our work -- i think the highest probability is that you see some type of 7%, 8% return in the market. you tack on a couple of percent for dividends and that's a pretty nice year. >> what are you advising clients

to do? where do they go in the market to do that? >> we've been trying to -- it's not been an easy task to get them in the market in the first place but we want them in industrials, technology, the consumer discretionary sector. we don't want them to hide. we want them in the sectors that are going to benefit from a continuation of this expansion. part of that is not only the u.s. doing a little bit better, 2.4 gdp, that's how we get to the 5%, 6% earnings growth in 2014. >> is it your expectations that clues to accelerating top line or even bottom line growth are going to come in the 4q numbers? >> i'm not sure.

i think 4q is going to be okay but as far as earnings advances, i think you're going to see the mid-digit type range, 4, 5, 6% gains. clearly that gdp number in the third quarter was a lot bigger than i thought it was going to be. but i don't think you can expect a big fourth quarter earnings season. i also don't think you can expect a big fourth quarter gdp number as we saw in the third quarter. >> scott, you said something interesting a moment ago, which is you're having a tough time getting your clients to even invest in the equity markets. i don't want to put words in your mouth but that's kind of what i heard. if that is the case after an up 29% year in the s&p, if they're not going to invest this year, are they ever going to? >> you know, david, the money's been trickling in. retail investors, they pay the bills here at wells fargo advisers. so you get a pretty good feel for the flows and retail

investor mentality. retail investors, they have been very cautious. they've been putting money in. if you look at the flow data, you'll see that. but there is no surge in retail money. there's a little chasing going on. that might mean the market is going to go a little further before we have a pullback. but really our clients have way too much cash, they're underinvested in stocks -- >> what is behind that and what changes that die nynamic? >> i think it's going to be tough to change. our clients, the avraof average baby boomer. they've been burned twice on paper in the last 35 years. they're 60 now, 65. they know they don't have the time to make it back or at least that's the fear. i think there's a lot of cash on the sidelines that is never going to see the equity market

again. it's a problem. >> but your basic assumption is you're right and you believe the equity market will gain from here and they will see the world in a very different way potentially. they will see the economy is not as strong as some seem to think that it is and they also will see that the fed is still printing cash every month and that will worry them. it has a right to worry them, doesn't it? >> simon, that's one of my biggest, toughest jobs is to try to talk to clients and say, look, over the next two to three years, you have a good chance for a 6% to 8% chance in the total equity market. if that's the case, you need to be in this thing. you don't want to outlive your money. the way you're going to outlive why a your money is sitting in cash. that's not going to do anything for you. that's one of my biggest jobs,

how to take advantage of that. we're not at the end of the line of the cyclical bull market. we still have more to go. >> happy new year, guys. don't get too crazy out there. >> thank you. >> it is the last day of 2013. it has been another year full of drama. executive shuffles and corporate changes. here are some of my picks for notable changes. we've talked about draghi and his fortitude as he waged war with the bond market. all the cypruses and portugals, political elections with merkel, big policy disagreements within the continent. at the very least they bought the world some time to heal. that's what we'll be talking about a year or two from now. >> but a lot of questions for the new year. >> no doubt. >> my story of the year would have to be the carnival

"triumph" which drifted in the wake of the fire and the righting of the "costa concordia." i'm flying down this weekend to interview arnold donald for something we're going to do on the show later down the line. this is a fascinating question. there's a lot of questions whether he can turn it around. if you start raising margins and cutting costs, this stock could really fly say some of the analysts. that's a real interesting stock. >> mine within my universe of m&a is perhaps not unexpected. certainly the foremost activist but it is the rise of the activist investors. i'm not sure why we're showing tepper, he's not an activist but that guy is, bill ackman. activism when it comes to this case hertz, which puts a poison pill in this morning. large or small, there have been

virtually no company that have not become aware of the activist investors, the money that has flowed into their coffers and the freedom they seem to feel to try to exert their will on corporations. we'll see whether that dynamic changes in the coming year. >> it points to how much of business news revolved around the penalty, the bezos, the mary barra at gm, the icahns. u mentioned it. >> hey, we got something. >> net flex is testing new waters, providing low-quality video to select users at a discounted price. it was almost two years to the day that netflix of course announced its 60% price hike sending shares down sharply. has the company learned its pricing strategy since then?

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as netflix opens up house of cards in ultra hd, it has not forgotten the rest of its customers. it will be test a discounted streaming plan for about $7 a month as a lower quality digital alternative. todd sprangler, good morning to you. thanks for coming to the phone. >> good morning. >> a fascinating story.

people have been saying netflix needs to charge customers more. what do we need about this new plan? >> for now it's just a test. they want to gather information before making any moves one way or the other. hello? >> go ahead, todd, you're on. >> if a lower-priced package would make sense for people who don't necessarily need hd and only one to access one feed at one time. >> it's a single feed, one device at a time. i assume the access to your library is otherwise the same. ? >> that's right. it would be the same kind of content you would get with the regular $7.99 a month plan. >> it's hard to find any name that's risen more than netflix stock. a lot of it has come from

analysts who say they have so much leverage and command so much of the band width, they have pricing power. >> netflix has been burned by making sweeping change without warning to customers and they suffered kind of a black eye when they split up the dvd by mail and streaming plans. that effectively was a rate increase for customers who had been used to getting dvd and streaming on one plan and one price. so they are going to be very cautious before they do anything like raise rates. >> at the same time, todd, i see that others are reporting that they're also testing the idea that they would price according to the number of users or screens that could access the content. behind all this is there a desire to break down the market into smaller pieces you think or have one big price move? i'm thinking about in particular

the model you have in the airline history where they sought to divide and subdivide into individual charges? is that where what netflix is trying to do, is that the smart thing to do? >> i think netflix is trying to maintain the simplicity. you have one price, there are not a lot of options. you know, for now it seems like the one price fits all has been an approach that has been successful for netflix. but i think you might see that they will have to at some point start to tier in different packages if they want to offer additional kind of exclusive content, they may decide to put that into a higher price offering. they might go that route. they resisted that idea. they like the simplicity of the

single price and we'll see which way they go here in the new year. >> yeah. well, your point about they had been around the block when it comes to strategic moves. so clearly they've learned some lessons from that, todd. thanks for your time. happy new year. >> happy new year. thank you. >> colorado's new marijuana law goes into effect in less than 24 hours now. nbc correspondent gabe gutierrez is live in denver. good morning, gabe. >> good morning. we're here in denver at one of the stores that is licensed to sell recreational marijuana. tomorrow customers 21 years and older with a colorado id will be able to buy up to an ounce of pot and those customers from out of state will be limited to a quarter ounce of marijuana. colorado has been a pioneer in medical marijuana. they have quite a lot of

different varieties, anything called from power durbin, some -- with some of the most complicated regulations in the world. the federal government still sees it as a crime but has said it won't focus on prosecuting it but instead keeping it away from children and drug trafficking. but there are many banking challenges that remain as many of these dispensaries haven't been able to do business. sales are supposed to start here at 8:00 a.m. tomorrow and they expect a lot of lines. >> that's going to be interesting to watch. thank you, gabe gutierrez, joining us from colorado. >> scott wapner has breaking news for us. >> there's been a lot of

speculation once hertz adopted that poison pill yesterday as to which activators could be taking positions in that stock. it's already a loved stock. i can report dan loeb's third point has taken a new position in hertz and that it is under 5%. so there wouldn't be a filing on it. i'm also told according to sources that at least for the time being that third point doesn't have any intention of taking an activist role in that name. who knows. that could change over time. it's the thinking over there that an activist role in hertz is not the intention of dan loeb at this time. i can also tell you and it's been reported in filings before that keith meister's corvax has had a position.

why would hertz observe the poison pill after seeing o unusual activity. perhaps merely it's the presence of mr. loeb given what's gone on recently with sony and sotheby as. the company is a little wary of what that could mean and keith meister used to work for carl icahn. if he is increasing his position in any sort of size, that could be somewhat concerning to the folks over at hertz. i can tell you that third point does have a new position. it's a rather small one considering the size that dan loeb would traditionally take in some of the news i'm used to talking about, a sony or sothebys. it's important when dan lobe takes a position in any company, it certainly gets a lot of attention like in hertz when

they chose to adopt the poison pill yesterday. >> i think there's more to it here than beyond mr. loeb. it doesn't appear to be an activist position as you pointed out. and what i have heard from folks familiar with the situation is did this in the belief it would be one of the big guys. core vex, a $4 billion fund is not going to take that large a position. this is not a corvex issue. it's much more whether it's a loeb or, as you point out, doesn't appear to be activist. in this case my sources indicate they did this because they know there is an activist in the shares of size who would be in a position to take as much as a 10% stake. now loeb with an 11-plus, $12 billion hedge fund.

icahn is the other big name. i haven't been able to confirm who that would be. certainly corvex was in there and loeb was also, as you point out, in there. it's not clear that we should jump to the conclusion that this is the activist they are actually doing this to potentially forestall. we'll see whether it's effective or not. as we pointed out earlier on the program in the case of hologic they put the pill in after ackman already had 9%. and the activist case is split off in some way, whitman leasing, a capital intensive business and there you'll be able to lever you up your balance sheet even more given no longer having that capital intensive business to the extent

you'll be able to buy back a lot of shares. >> it caps what has been such an interesting year in terms of activists. unprecedented really. i know you've spoken of that on only cases and i've seen it as well. and the mere presence of a dan loeb given everything that's happened this year with activists in general is enough to call the attention of the leadership over at hertz to perhaps try and pro-tebt yourself in case the motives do change or grow larger than what they presume to be at this point in time. >> of course by doing all of this, what have they done? they just attracted a -- >> well, it is a 7% move on some very heavy volume for the last trading day of the year. our thanks to you, scott. >> rates are on the rise. consumers can expect to pay more to get a mortgage next year.

could a pricier mortgage also result in some curved lending? we'll talk to frank keating in just a moment. it raises the price of fishmeal, cattle feed and beef. bny mellon turns insights like these into powerful investment strategies. for a university endowment. it funds a marine biologist... who studies the peruvian anchovy. invested in the world. bny mellon.

2013 was a strong year for real estate. will it keep pace next year? diana olick will join us in a moment. first let's check her scorecard for 2013. diana predicted house prices would continue to prize from 5 to 7%. she got that half right as prices rose 12%. diana predicted apartment rents would stay elevated and vacancies low despite the improvement in the housing market. in that she was correct. and finally diana predicted as home prices to rise, more borrowers would come out from under underwater.

prices pulled about 2 million back and home ren open vagss took a big leap. let's see what's in store for 2014. >> reporter: home prices will continue to rise. those price jumps we saw in 2013 were driven by investors on the low end of the market. as distressed sales become a part of the mix, the prices will moderate. and mortgage rates will also rise. the days of the 3.5% 30-year fixed are over. rates are already up well over a full percent and point from a year ago and as the federal reserve begins its much anticipated exit in the bond buying business, rates will have to go higher. >> and some have predicted large

institutional investors will sell at a profit and leave but they say they've settled in on the long haul. and also rents for single homes are rising as they are for mult multi-building apartment complexes. >> stay tuned for our predictions. you can watch them all on the web. coming up, my own predictions for traveling leisure. >> i'm already going to look here. i'm not going to wait. >> with legislation to create a replacement for fannie and freddie stalled, what can banks expect in the next year.

governor, good to have you back. good morning. >> a pleasure to be here. happy new year. >> same to you. >> fee increases may not make it a happy year. can you explain where it comes from as we await the next move from mel watt? >> it is important to make sure there is a slow but inexorable exit from the mortgage market. i think democrats and republicans here in washington agree that has to be the case. and obviously to do that, you have to have a fee, if you will, a premium, to assure that the private party who is making the mortgage loan pays for the service that he's being provided, namely the insurance to provide him an opportunity to have a mortgage. and that has to be all resolved. but, you know, one thing i'd like to emphasize is diana's points are absolutely right that we're heard here previously but the regulatory system out there,

particularly the ability to repay rule requiring that you have to have a job, assets and income, no surprise there but a 43% debt-to-income ratio is going to retard some of the single family homeownership growth and there will be real pressure in the rental market because that's where a lot of people will have to go. >> do you think standards are too tight and are they going to get tighter? >> for example, in the case of the aba and we do a lot of lending, but i've had people from port rico tell me that 43% is going to be really tough for the economy in port rico. also in florida our state association president there has advised that a lot of the snow birds coming from the northeast, they have assets but they don't have the kind of income they have when they were fully employed. so that is going to put a crimp on purchases of single-family homes in the florida and port

rico area. it may be too tight in some markets. we'll have to see how it moves. >> governor, just before we let you go, this year for many people one of the major developments was the finds that some of t-- fines that some of big wall street bank himself to pay. as you look into next year what do you think the relationship between the federal agents and the banks and what are you doing behind the scenes to try to temper it in some way? >> i think it's really important to understand to have the regulators stunned there has to be a comity between themselves and the regulating community. we were instrumental and filed a lawsuit against the five regulator who provided a rule, if you will, for dodd-frank and the interpretation that would

make it very difficult for the smallest banks to retain and to acquire capital. so we have to ask to are listened to. obviously we have to listen because they're the regulators, but i think it's really important to understand the importance of the strength of the banking system, the economy will not grow and will not succeed as the number one economy in the world if we're always falling on our faces and every regulator from every state is after the banking industry. there's got to be balance, and that's what we're hoping to see in 2014. >> governor, appreciate your insight on that. that's going to be a story for nut year. >> meantime, countries around the world arin ringing in the new year with some champagne, of course. but do you know your champagne etiquette? back in a moment. welcome back. how is everything?

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dow at 16,541. check out gold, bounced right of a the level and back up 7 to 1,211. >> millions of new health insurance policies purchased under president obama's health care law will officially kick in

tomorrow. but will it go down without a glitch? welcome to the program, sir. nice to see you. >> good morning. happy new year to you. >> before we go any further, can you just explain what you guys do. you're not part of obamacare. were you already an existing web site for people to generally buy insurance? >> we operate gohealth insurance.com, it allows people to research insurance online and talk to a licensed adviser. >> now in this compressed period of time because they kept pushing the deadlines back, not only have people got to make the payment on whatever plan they've chosen, the health insurers have got to switch it on so that everybody can see that they're insured. how do you think this is going to go? >> well, you saw kind of slow october/november and then a big

surge in december with all the enrollment. you had until the 23rd and ultimately the 24th to enroll. now the carriers are scrambling to get the id cards out, get everything enrolled in their system. there were two parts in this, one is pick your plan and enroll in a plan, which a lot of consumers have done now. the second part is pay your first premium where your policy is actually active. that needs to be done by january 10th. carriers will be scrambling to get those policies issued and out the doors in the next few days. >> how do you hear it's going? >> there's a lot going on right now. we'll see how this all comes together in the next week or so. >> okay. when it does go wrong, what should people do? what can people do? i guess they just hang on the phone waiting to get through to their insurer. >> if you didn't get enrolled or get covered, you have until january 15th to get covered for

a february 1st effective date. the penalties don't kick in until next year. you need to enroll by the end of march this year to make everything effective. >> clint jones joining us from gohealthinsurance. thank you. >> do you want a prime spot to dine tonight in the heart of times square? if you do, you are in luck. appleby's is giving you that opportunity but it's going to cost you. just how much? we'll give you that report in just a moment. and you're talking to your rheumatologist about trying or adding a biologic. this is humira, adalimumab. this is humira working to help relieve my pain. this is humira helping me through the twists and turns. this is humira helping to protect my joints from further damage. doctors have been prescribing humira for over ten years. humira works by targeting and helping to block

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welcome back to "squawk on the street" and the last "santelli exchange" of the year. and i think today is the perfect

day to discuss what i think was almost aptly said best on a web site i frequent this morning, they basically had a crayon chart, said earnings per share up 6%, s&p up 30%. that really does say it all. now, i can't stand here and tell any listeners on the radio or viewers if this is going to end well or not well for stocks. what i can tell you is there are a lot of big variables we have to deal with on the valuation and relationship on the stock market, company's earnings, the level of the earnings, interest rates and a $4 trillion fed balance sheet. what i can tell you is there's always ways to stay ahead of the game. in the 80s i was with drexel and

they were investing and investing. the nikkei touched 39,000, a whisker below and the rest is history as they celebrate the biggest net change in the year in japan, i think going back to the 70s but truly nowhere near 39,000. so how exactly are we going to be able to tell it's time to be a little careful in your equity positions? i always think of those analogies of swans, black swans, fat tails but i also think of canaries in the coal mine. here's the canaries in the coal mine that you need to pay attention to. they will let you know. it looks to me like the one in the left-hand corner over there if you can get a better view, i think that's twitter. i think this is tesla and i think the last one is netflix at

105 pe ratio. but in the end that really is what you want to pay most attention to. when the really high flyers and, believe me, i love netflix, i think tesla could be the best designed car ever but i don't know that any of these niche areas have valuations that make sense. but when the tied starts to move out, it's these can airities are not going to live longer. happy new year to you viewers and listeners and a happy 2014 to us all. >> right back to you, rick. it is new year's eve and what better way to celebrate. moet & chandon, we'll go behind the bottle when "squawk on the street" comes right back.

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chandon was named the champagne for new year's eve in times square. it's good to have you. >> thank you. >> how do i get a gig like this? >> you have to be the one that drinks the most champagne throughout the year, not just on new year's eve. it's an iconic celebration and this is the champagne of success and glamour. one bottle is opened every second. i think everyone should have some moet & chandon imperial in their glass. >> how has the crop been? >> we've had successful vintages. 2013 we think, you never know. i think moet & chandon imperial is aged for two years until it comes into the market. we have a little time before we know what's going to happen with this vintage. we're drinking 2004 right now

from -- >> why is that? >> it's great to have something that's a wonderful vintage and have it spend a bit of time in the cellar first. >> there's a story out that champagne volumes are going to be down about 3% to 4% and a lot of that has to do with the u.k. market and cheaper competition coming in from italy and spain. they say the industry effort is to raise the quality and raise awareness. >> i think we're lucky, we're dating back to 1743. we're celebrating our 200th anniversary today. we're getting something that's wonderful in the glass this year and for many years to come. i think edge -- >> what does it actually mean to have your tightful.

>> -- have your title? >> i make sure your glass is full. >> between wines and spirits, there are many different organizations overseeing the da fact that you need a narrow-rimmed diameter glass -- i'll help you out. >> we use a wine glass these days. >> right. >> a great glass of wine. certainly in the traditional flute you see the bubbles and the stream feeding up. in this sort of glass, we see the art of the winemaker. the man voted the head winemaker, we love to see his artistry in a glass like this. you go get your nose in. >> what's the perfect temperature and the ideal time between the pop and the serve? >> great questions. we love -- cellar is 55 degrees fahrenheit. >> so a regular wine fridge. >> a little cooler. 45 degrees is really nice for champagne.

get it straight into the glass, drink it right away. like i said, in champagne, we've done the cellar and aging for you. >> so in those temperatures, out tonight, you don't have to warm the champagne. >> well, no, no, no, cool is wonderful, as well, and watch the evolution of the champagne in the glass as it warms, you'll get more aromas and more flavors as it changes. >> i love this. you seduced me. i'm on. >> does it drive you crazy when people drop a strawberry in and let it soak? >> i think you should drink it as you like it. if you want fruit, lovely. if you want to drink it as it is, lovely. >> cocktails are great, brandy, a sugar cube. >> yeah, stretch it out a little bit, that's a great way. >> good luck getting these out of here safely. >> it's nice to toast with. >> linda, thank you so much. >> my pleasure. happy new year, everyone. >> same to you. when we come back, the barricades are on stand-by. police are lining up. ♪ a wrecking ball people will be swarming times square, expecting a million people to see the ball.

a little over 13 hours before we ring in 2014, and we'll talk to the man who designed the times square ball, when "squawk on the street" continues.

♪ and so it begins the countdown ♪ ♪ and you think of a reason why to be downtown ♪ ♪ met you in the middle of the scandalous town ♪ there it is, an estimated 1 million people battling it out in the times square, to watch the iconic ball drop. another 1 billion people will watch it on television. fred curtis is the master sculptor for waterford, and designed and, i believe, manufactured the ball. the ball is quite a new tradition, it came in 2000, you were saying. >> the waterford ball came in 2000, but the tradition has been on since 1907. >> so each year you redesign the panels within it? >> yeah, this year did, it's a brand-new ball this year. all new panels, 2,688 panels on this. and each panel is cut with a design called imagination. gift of imagination. >> yes, gift of imagination. >> it's the greatest gift

collection, and it's been synonymous with it for over 200 years. >> you have the same type of branding? >> yeah, we do have products with the same design. people collect them every year as a -- we make a collection, we have a few of them here. it's got the imagination design cut into the crystal. >> just to give people a sense of scale, because we're all familiar with the picture of it, but the actual components, i don't know, can you pick me up here, tom, this size? >> that's the actual triangle. 2,688. >> how much? >> 2,688. >> it weighs how much? >> about 12,000 pounds. >> suspended high above new york. >> yes. >> walk me through some of the tests you take to make sure it doesn't come crashing down. >> well, there's a huge amount of people involved in this. waterford is just the skin of the ball. you've got all of the electrics and stuff inside there. there's almost 16 million colors inside the ball. we can do billions of different designs on the outside. but it all shines through the

crystal, so it gives it a real kaleidoscope effect. >> where do you make that, are you still making it in ireland? >> yes, yes. >> what do you do when you finish with them? >> they will -- we don't sell them. they usually go to -- like in 2001, we gave them to the memorial, the museum for 9/11. >> right. >> and all of the names of the victims were put on the pieces and donated to the museum. every year, different charities and different organizations will benefit from them. >> yeah, i'm thinking from a marketing standpoint, there are few events that are watched by as many people where your product is as central to the event, right? >> very, very few. we're very lucky. i mean, how many companies can say -- to leave an old year out, new year in, and you get 1 billion people watching. 100 million people in the united states alone, 1 million in the square, times square itself. i mean, it's a huge, huge marketing opportunity. >> is it much of a contest? is there a bidding war to be the official provider of the crystal?

>> uhh, no, we don't have that much competition really. we are the best. >> oh, yeah, for sure. >> still, there are some make -- when will -- when will you design for next year? do you start immediately or -- >> yeah, we start probably -- like we'll be starting on the new gift, but you have to wait until next year to find out what that is. i can tell you in 2023, we finish with a gift of love. that's the last one. >> really? >> yeah. >> and 2,688 of these to be manufactured. are they hand -- are they handmade? >> handmade, yes. >> when do you start manufacturing that many panels? when is your deadline to have the designs done? >> well, probably around november. >> oh, okay. >> we have the time, yeah. a whole team of people working on this. there's engineers. there's designers, artisans, a whole team of -- >> although we should point out that you yourself got your start cutting glass in 197 -- >> 1971, yes. >> you could make this if you had to. >> oh, yes, i could -- actually,

we teamed up this year with st. jude children's research hospital, and they chose one of their patients to design -- to do a design. and i took that -- she drew it raw, said it made her feel good, even just for a short time. so drew it, and i took it back and cut and papered it on the -- and it's been on here, the only one on there that's different from all of the rest. so it was panel from lal girl from alabama. >> all right. you going to be in the square? >> i've been up there this morning, and believe me, it's freezing up there. [ laughter ] it's good to stay up there in the elements. >> all right. thank you very much for coming by. >> you're welcome. thank you very much. >> it will be fun over the next few hours to keep track of the markets, because the s&p's right around 1,845. but if it can manage, obviously, in some thin volume, to get just 9 more points to close at 1,854.05, that would give you 30% for the year. that's only happened five times

since 1950. probably a bit of a stretch here. >> well, it is 30% if you include dividends, isn't it? you're already there already. >> the key is the stats of the year following an up 30% year, incredibly strong if you're long the market. it looks like if you're looking forward to a good year next year, you would want above-30% close. >> gents, i hope you have a great 2014. we'll see you. same to you. if you are just joining us, here's what you missed earlier on. >> announcer: welcome to "squawk on the street." here's what's happened so far -- >> i don't think we're in a bubble. i think this is kind of natural. i think there's a bubble in bubbles. we're all bubble paranoid now. we can't enjoy a rally, because we're worried about a bubble. i don't think we're in a bubble. >> all: three, two, one! >> happy new year! ♪ my guess is that this is

quite typical that good years follow great years. we've had a great year. we're likely to have a good year. but risk management and some kind of an air pocket during the year are likely to happen. >> you have to remember that the housing market is fundamentally different from the stock market. we hope to change that if we can get more -- things are changing. but there has been tremendous momentum in the housing market. [ bell sounds ] >> three, two, one! >> a seven-second delay will get you halfway around the world. >> i can report now, according to sources, that dan loeb's third point has taken a position, a new position, in hertz, and that it is under 5%. >> the economy will not grow and will not succeed as the number-one economy in the world if we're always falling on our faces and every regulator from every state is after the banking industry. there's got to be balance, and

that's what we're hoping to see in 2014. ♪ it is 11:00 a.m. on the east coast, but already, 2014 somewhere. at this hour, it's in shanghai, ringing in the new year. interestingly, one of those indices that managed to close down for the year, down about 6.75%. even though its neighbor in tokyo, the nikkei, was up 57% for the year. good morning. we're live here at post 9 at the new york stock exchange. we want to get a check on the markets here. the dow did set some intraday high, along with the s&p. 16,546, up about 42 on the dow, the s&p up 6. news that dan loeb's third point has take an new position on hertz, and earlier today they adopted a poison pill after seeing unusual and substantial activity in the stock. and what goes up must come down, and then apparently go back up again. shares of twitter are in rally mode after falling over 17% in

the past two trading sessions. of course, that fall comes after a major rally in twitter shares since its ipo in november. the roadmap goes like this. the market stocks still in the green as the major indiess look to post the best year in two decades. and even if you think facebook isn't as cool as it should be, it's still pretty dominant. 73% of adults are now members of the social network. we'll tell you what this means for the future of facebook in a moment. speaking of dominant, shares of netflix have been on a tear this year, up nearly 30% in 2013. so will the good times continue in the new year? we'll take a closer look. and how would you like to spend this new year's eve in times square away from the cold, complete with a buffet dinner, open bar, and a live deejay, all for the cost of 375 bucks? now you can if you spend your new year's at applebee's. we'll hear from a lucky few taking that plunge. first up, joining me, dennis

vermin, business editor of "the business journal." joining us, and welcome. >> i think that deal at applebee's, it's a good play. >> given the real estate, yes -- >> yeah, yeah. >> your thoughts on the top stories this year? we talked a lot about nat gas, fracking. >> we talked about that the other day. >> the corporate stories, the macro stories. give me the top three, four. >> i'll give you a couple, carl. one thing that hasn't been talked about a lot, but probably gaining attention in 2014, is the global reaction to the nsa spying fallout. what that means for individual companies going forward. of course, you know the effect where companies are forbidden of doing business with them because of spying effects. and that's been flipped on its head, where foreign governments are getting skeptical about u.s. companies and their technology coming into their networks and their countries. that will be a big theme in 2014. >> consumer spending? we've been through the ringer on this retail season. we know it's a short calendar.

is 2014 going to show it was a calendar issue? >> well, i think calendar is less relevant than the fact that people shifted out of the nondurables to durables. of course, it was easy to buy clothes after 2009, 2010. people didn't want to replace the cars, the appliances, but they did, so great years for the companies who made those sorts of durable goods. so i'd see -- my guess for 2014, carl, it's a little more consistent on both sides -- the durables and nondurables. if the economy is growing at the rate we saw in the third quart other, which, of course, there are questions about that. >> there were pretty smart calls that consumers are spending on the cars and homes to the expense of other things. >> and 2014, a day of reckoning has to be nye for the sears holdings empire. i see that. and also for jcpenney, are they going to make it or not? just so much doubt about that company and where it's headed. so i think 2014 will be that year. >> yeah. the cash watch will continue.

>> it will. >> that's true. meantime, the dow and s&p have set intraday records today, something we're used to in 2013. joining us to discuss what we can exmekt in the new year, jordan posner, managing director and senior portfolio manager with matrix asset advisors. thank you for being with us, jordan. >> pleasure. good morning. >> dennis mentions the day of reckoning being nye, at least for some specific companies. is there a broader one for the market, especially once the fed starts to announce fed tapers? >> well, the environment for next year, we think, is going to be one where the fed continues to taper, and we think what will happen, then, is you'll see interest rates move up gradually over the course of the year into 2014. especially in the back half when the taper theoretically tapers out. financials we think will do well. it's an indication that the cyclically related stocks will do well. and in general, we think for the full year 2014, returns will

rest back to the mean returns of the market, which are typically 8%, 10%, plus/minus. in 2014, we would expect you'll see a lot more individual performance stock-to-stock. so stock selection will become more important during the year. >> and the ones you like, cisco, qualcomm, oxy, interesting to watch. you have a reputation, jordan, for being a bit contrarian, but you're in the base camp in that you're looking for better corporate earnings next year, a better macroenvironment. does that make you uncomfortable? >> a little bit. in fact, one of the concerting factors, there aren't that many, but one of them, everyone is reasonably bullish. we solved a lot of the problems, especially in washington. a lot of the crisis-related issues have died down to a great degree. there are still issues that are out there. geopolitical events can crop up at any time. there's an election coming up in congress in 2014. so there's plenty of stuff to

workry about. on balance, though, the economic structure of what's going on throughout the world, the u.s., europe is doing better, china seems to have stabilized. all leads to pretty positive outlook. of course, there's always going to be something that upsets the apple cart. and when there is, we expect some type of correction to take place during the year. we would use that as an opportunity to buy, not necessarily chase things right now. >> all right. jordan, you've talked about cisco. is this because it had a terrible quarter last quarter? is it a value pick, or is it something beyond that idea of picking that stock for 2014? >> we are value investors, and so, there certainly is a value take. they did have a difficult october quarter when they reported it. and subsequent to that, they had a large investor day in new york. and they reiterated a couple of themes. one is they are becoming much more shareholder aware in terms of returning capital to shareholders by way of dividend and in terms of share repurchase.

that creates an imperative within the company to make sure that the returns within the company from the business continue to do well. and i think that they are pushing back against some of the innovative competitors out there, and we think cisco has a good chance of winning and retaining its position in a very important part of the technology world, especially as we believe corporations will continue to spend and reinvest. >> that's going to be something to watch. we all have our eye on cap ex for 2014. jordan, have a great new year. we'll see you next year. >> you, too. >> jordan posner joining us from matrix. new study by the pew shows 73% of online adults are members of a social network. facebook is still the dominant platform, along with increased use in pinterest and linkedin, while only 24% involved in twitter. fascinating stats here.

>> yeah, i've been trying to comb through this. a couple of headline takeaways. one is that instagram is the real twitter competitor, in terms of how they index demographically, very similar, strong in the black and hispanic communities. strong in urban areas. strong in the younger demos. facebook generally pretty strong across the board to kind of contrast some of the headlines we've seen out there. though pew did focus on 18 and above. the youngest demographic is 18 to 29. and, also, facebook and instagram -- we can call it facegram -- have a high number of active daily users, which is something interesting for the advertising prospects. it seems like two channels here. the mainstream channel, that's facebook. and then you have the younger, hip channel, that's instagram. both heavily engaged. >> yeah. i love -- my favorite, 45% of seniors in the u.s. are on facebook. that's up from 35% last year. but teens?

84% and stagnant. i wonder what that means, law of large numbers or something else? >> i've seen it play out in my own life. my parents are both on facebook. my aunt jeannie, who turned, i think, 80 yesterday, happy birthday, aunt jenny, is on facebook as well. not on instagram. but i've gotten some nephews and nieces who are very active on the instagram whatnot, don't like to view the pictures all of the time. >> yes. >> makes us concerned. >> yeah. >> because i'm getting old. i see it playing out. >> jon, when you look at the numbers for twitter, the valuation we're seeing, 350 times plus forward earnings? >> well, no. but i think we can't just look at what twitter is today and assume that this is just about that. they've got a big opportunity with the loyalty they have among that key demo if they can expand beyond the core twitter service and do more with it. but instagram does, too. so i think that's going to be a battle we see play out not just in vine versus instagram video,

but across a lot of different products over the next few years. >> yeah. jon, we'll see you in a few minutes. jon fortt at post 9. we want to get back to headquarters and check in with scott wapner. had a very busy morning so far. >> and getting busier. the hertz story, we reported that dan loeb had taken a position in hertz of under 5%. we also talked about how keith meister's core vex had been adding to its position, and i can now report that mr. meister has, in fact, met with hertz management. he did meet with the ceo, according to my sources, mark fasoras, in meetings described as being constructive, and this plays into the thought that, it's not the poison pill adopted by hertz late yesterday afternoon, it's not about meister, maybe it's not about loeb. maybe it's about somebody else who's taken a very large position, and that's sort of the

mystery on wall street today as to what exactly drove hertz and its ceo and the board -- which, by the way, i'm told from sources, you know, has this board meeting a couple of days ago, just before new year's, right, something would have had to have happened to force a board a couple days before the new year to get on the phone and have an important call and an emergency call if they were going to adopt a poison pill. all i can tell you now is that i know from my sources that mr. meister has, in fact, met with hertz management. it was described to me by those sources as being constructive, and now we see where this goes from here. but the stock is getting a little bit more of a lift apparently on this news, now up some 9%, and the volume, as you know, carl, today up from the minute that this story had started to get out there, volume was just ripping higher. >> scott, can you explain this to me? what's the play for hertz? the stock has done incredibly well over 2013.

the market for rental cars is basically two to three companies, tops, after merger after merger after merger. do the activists have no ideas left? what's the angle here? >> i think they have ideas, and maybe it spinvolves a spinoff, potential buyback to increase shareholder value. i can tell you, dennis, a number of big-name hedge funds and many well-known names who are in this stock that have been reported through filings over the last year or so. so you know how these things go from looking at the activity of hedge fund activist investors, and just nonactivist hedge funds over the last year. they run in packs in many cases, you know, whether it's aig, a very popular hedge fund trade. not an activist role by any stretch of the imagination. but then, there's herbalife, which you had a number of people -- whether it's carl icahn or george soros, for example, who have gotten into that name. and now hertz appears on the radar of a large number of hedge fund guys as a stock that holds

some value that needs to be unlocked and they believe that that will happen in the months and, you know, years ahead. >> yeah. that push of 28 is an all-time high for htz, of course, highs of the days on strong volume. scott, thanks for your reporting today. scott wapner back at hq. if you're in the market for a new car, you should hurry down to the dealership, because today is the day you're most likely to get a good deal. we will tell you why in a moment. but first, rick santelli is watching year-end action. rick? >> absolutely. and according to reuters, hot off the presses, the euro will be the best performing major currency of the year. we know the worst performing major currency of the year was the yen against just about everything. but we have mark grant at the bottom of the hour to talk about foreign exchange europe, and anything he sees in his crystal ball for 2014. bottom of the hour. ♪ was a man who found a magic seashell. it told him what was happening on the trading floor in real time.

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hathaway. so they're using it as currency. the unit makes chemicals designed to increase flow in energy pipelines. so at least one deal so to speak in this particular sector, carl. >> one of the great stories of the quarter, that's for sure, dom. thanks a lot. if you're in the market for a new or used car, today might be the best day of the year to buy. our mary thompson explains, she is live at the lynnbrook audi dealership in lynn brook, new york. mary, good morning. >> reporter: good morning to you, carl. you might think of raising a glass of champagne on new year's eve, not driving off the lot with a new car. but if you're still in the market for one, now, and i mean today, it might be the best time of the year to buy them. now, for high-end auto dealers like the audis that are sold here at lynn brook, year end is typically busy time of the year, because clients are looking to spend bonus money, but typically, it's a time to find bargains on all kinds of lots. dealers are looking to make month-end and year-end quotas

and lay claims to top-selling brands. here's the general manager, justin haynes. >> for some, it's bragging rights. objectives we all strive for. >> it's been a good gain for automak automakers. 16.6 million vehicles. that's the big four and other automak automakers, posting strong sales gains through the end of the year. to move the 80 days' worth of supply off of the lots, kelly bluebook analyst alec gutierrez says they continue to offer good financing deals. the big difference at year end, gutierrez says is the automakers pumping up sales by boosting cash rebates. >> on a number of the pickup trucks, including the "f" series, you might save upwards of $5,000. midsized cars like the chrysler

200, save anywhere from $2,000 to $3,000. >> reporter: now, if you're unable to make it out today, keep in mind that the dealers actually don't close their books on 2013 until january 2nd. so you might still have time to get in on some of the good deals by thursday. carl, back to you. >> that is a great tip. still time to do it, too, before the ball drops, mary. thank you so much. mary thompson. meantime, there are some worries that the pope's recent negative comments about capitalism and the wealthy are hurting efforts to raise funds for the renovation of st. patrick's cathedral in new york city. our michelle ka russo -- caruso-cabrera has the story. >> reporter: the renovations cost $180 million. a billionaire is spearheading the effort, and he tells cnbc one potential seven-figure donor has expressed concerns about the pope's recent comments. some of the pope's comments include statements such as, the earnings of a minority are growing exponentially, so, too,

is the gap separating the -- there are many more references, negative in nature, to say things like the deified markets, clearly sarcastic. ken, who did not approach us of the story, we approached him, langone told me, your emnesn, you want to be careful. i spoke to timothy dolan about the issue yesterday. here's his response. >> it would be a misunderstanding of the holy father's message. the pope loves poor people. he also loves rich people. he loves people, all right? and he's not into the condemning game for anybody. his famous renown statement,

"who am i to judge?" so i said, ken, thanks for bringing it to my attention, we've got to correct to make sure this gentleman, who's the only one i've heard, understands the holy father's message properly, and then i think he's going to say, "oh, okay, if that's the case, count me in for st. patrick's cathedral." >> i encourage you to reed our story on cnbc.com. it's been provoking a question. if your mission is to alleviate poverty, what is the best economic model to do that? his statements read in the entirety does not suggest he is a supporter of the free markets. back to you. >> we've had this conversation amongst ourselves for a long time, but to have the pope involved takes it to a new level. michelle, great story. thank you so much. michelle ka ruichelle caruso-ca. it's hard to forget the carnival "triumph" stranded. we'll look at what the future holds for the company and the rest of the sector in just a moment. the dow's up 52. [ man #1 ] we're now in the approach phase.

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travel and leisure took center stage in 2013, and who could forget the stranded passengers aboard "triumph"? what does 2014 have in store for travel? simon hobbs has the predictions, but first, let's see how he did in 2013. he said that hilton would go public. that was correct. hilton had a report $2.3 billion ipo earlier. and next, group books would bounce back in lodging. very nice, simon. high, increased 7% in the third quarter earnings, and the u.s. visa waiver program would be extended to tourists from argentina, poland, but it hasn't happened yet. maybe in 2014. let's see what's in store for the coming year. >> in 2014, the four seasons

hotel group will return to the public market seven years after bill gates and saudi prince el talal took it private. they are said to be frustrated at the luxury chain's lack of growth, even replacing ceo kathleen taylor, a 25-year-old veteran of four seasons operations, with allen smith from prudential real estate. blackstone's successful ipo of hilton group, more importantly proves the window is open for big cash-ins in lodging. the hotel business is cyclical. mcquarry says there may be three, possibly six years of rising revenue per available room, but sellers will need to first list and then offload the stock in waves. in the cruise industry, the arrival of new ships like royal caribbean "quantum of the seas," 300 feet above sea level rooms, will reinvigorate pricing. and as priceline acquired kayak,

bigger players will continue to gobble up their smaller rivals. >> and our thanks to our own simon hobbs. when we come back, would you like to stream video for less money? netflix reportedly looking at a cheaper plan offering video at a lower resolution, letting you watch on only one screen at a time. does this idea mean good news for the company's stock? more on that in a moment. plus, the bells are about to sound across europe. we have some markets over there closed for the day, and some with some early closes. we'll wrap it all up with simon in just a few minutes.

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the european markets are closing now. >> and with gains locked up for 2013, simon hobbs is here to hit us one more time. >> some markets didn't even open. germany, italy, switzerland amongst them. the rest, a staggered close. yes, everybody is closed now for 2013. the u.k. was particularly active today. the house builders did well, and we do have a problem within retail. i hope this doesn't happen here. but the second-largest department store chain in the u.k. said it took in far too much inventory, that it will have to discount over the next two months. it pulled down martin spencer's, as well. as we wrap up, this is how we stack up. look at the comparison between the s&p 500 here and the stock 600 in europe. america is the white line, up 29%. europe is the yellow line, up 17%. so a 12% divergence there. the question is, do european

stocks do better next year as a result? in the meantime, at midnight tonight, and rick santelli will talk very shortly about how distressed the euro zone is, but latvia becoming a member of the euro zone, and 58% of the population doesn't want it, but the elite are pushing it through. angela merkel is stressing the fact that europe is a place for peace for millions and if everybody sticks together and trusts each other, they can pull through anything. that, of course, is very important, because it is that fundamental argument that drives the heart of the euro zone, peace after two world wars in the last century. finally, let me just mention michael schumacher, had a second operation. he's in hospital in the french alps, had a second brain operation overnight and is said to be doing better, though still critical, carl. >> that helmet may have saved his life. thanks, simon. happy new year to you, sir.

>> you, too. >> let's bring in bob pisani. >> and we're in record territory. to give you a couple of thoughts of what happened in the prior year, 2013, and thoughts on what's happening in 2014. by market capitalization, once again, we've had a situation where small caps represented by the russell 2000 have outperformed big caps. this has been happening for several years. big caps, too, did better than large caps. midcaps the sweet spot of the market. that's where you find a lot of the homebuilders, the airline stocks that used to be small caps have been in the midcap space, as well. now, the two most asked questions in the last few weeks from investors that i've been getting is, number one -- what do we do with interest rate sensitive stocks, because a lot of people fled into that as an alternative to bonds and it's been a tough year. they've underperformed. the s&p is up 29%. in the middle of the year, the homebuilder stocks fell apart, as rates went up and prices went up, and a concern about a slow downin the market. reits are actually down this

year. i can tell you the general pattern here. if the economy goes notably better next year, interest rate sensitive stocks historically underperform the market. i'm not making a prediction, i'm just telling you historically in situations where the economy is improving, interest rates will usually underperform. the other question, what about emerging markets? a lot of people had money in the eem, and a lot of the etfs, and it's been a tough year. china, brazil both down noticeably, money contracting from all of the areas. brazil so frustrated and angry, they tried to implement currency controls with varying degrees of success. here's the eem, the bogey i use for emerging market investments, and it's the etf for emerging market stocks, eem, the symbol, down about 6% on the year, and here, the opposite is usually true. when you see a global improvement in the economy, historically, the eem has tended to outperform a little bit. but again, that's a personal call about whether you see the global economy actually

improving. that's a big issue. finally, i just want to point out, a lot of people have written to me asking about the baltic dry index. i had problems using this as an index to buy things, but the index is near a new high for the year. a multiyear high. some of the shipping stocks that have been terrible performers on the year recently have been acting a little better. put up some of the shipping stocks and some are on the upside today. that's a very close call, guys. but volatility is the buy word. they routinely move into the 30% range on a multimonth basis. back to you. >> yeah, always fun to watch. same to you, bob. we'll talk to you later. for more on the markets, let's get to rick santelli in chicago. rick? >> well, thank you very much, carl. and i'd like to welcome my new year's eve special guest, mark grant. he needs no introduction. happy new year, and welcome, mark. >> rick, the sages particularly asking me to wish you a very,

very happy new year for you and your family, and please have a great one. >> thank you very much. now, let's look at the recent news i talked about in the tease, reuters saying the best performing major currency is the euro. no surprise to us, and also the yen not mentioned directly in the story, but it is the worst performing major. how do you see that changing? or do you see it continuing in 2014? and what are the reasons, in your opinion, that the euro had such a good year? >> well, i think europe has had a slide-by year, that's what i call it. they've fuzzed with a lot of the numbers with their banks, and that's going to be coming up tw the ecb taking oversight this year. a lot of the numbers for the sovereigns are questionable. but the euro has held up well mostly because the european governments have encouraged money managers, banks, central banks so be buyers and, of course, in europe somewhat different than america, when the

government encourages you, you follow through. so in japan, with the yen, the issue has been the policies of the prime minister. they have not performed as well as he had hoped and consequently, you've seen the falloff in the currency. >> well, taxes are going to be -- be going up in japan, i think that's an issue. all right. >> yes. >> let's consider this. when i look at the euro currency, here's what i think. i think that everything is relative. and whether it's the pound, the euro, the dollar, the yen, really we're all in a very small pool, banging our heads against the edges. the yen being the one exception. i look at italian banks. i see bad credit issues there. and i see less credit coming out to businesses that are starving for credit. when i look at southern europe, i still see super high unemployment rates. when i look at france, i see a failed strategy with regard to the socialist government. i don't see much of that really

changing in 2014, so i agree on the slide. but what's the biggest negative, and what's the biggest positive you see in europe coming up? >> well, the biggest negatives, rick, are you've got greece, spain, portugal, cyprus, italy, france that are all troubled. and consequencely, even when you look at the numbers that we're given, i have strong doubts about the factuality of them. the good news for europe is they have held together so far. there hasn't been any big blowup, though i do think because of the gaps and the losses that have been taken and especially the banking sector in spain and portugal that we're going to -- they're going to have to face the music in the upcoming year, and i do think there will be some disruptions forthcoming in 2014. >> well, mark, thanks, as always

for your succinct notions on the marketplace. happy new year. and, carl and simon, back to you. >> happy new year to you, rick. >> thanks so much, rick. 2013 was a great year for a lot of companies and you don't have to look farther than netflix to prove that point. this chart will tell you what you need to know. shares up over 250% for the year. best of the s&p. will the surge continue next year? we'll get some answers after a short break. there's nothing like being your own boss! and my customers are really liking your flat rate shipping. fedex one rate. really makes my life easier. maybe a promotion is in order. good news. i got a new title. and a raise? management couldn't make that happen. [ male announcer ] introducing fedex one rate. simple, flat rate shipping with the reliability of fedex.

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coming up, john paulson making a comeback this year. we'll reveal what's worked for his fund that doubled the s&p's return. then, the prognosticator of prognosticators. jeremy segal is here. he saw this year's rally coming a mile away. he'll reveal the predictions for 2014. and we're breaking down the best and worst trades of the year. and what the first moves of 2014 should be. it's straight ahead at the top of the hour. carl, we'll try to have more on the developing hertz story, as well. >> nice groundhog day reference, scott. very nice. >> thank you. netflix up nearly 300%, and ending the poison pill are movement to help ward off hostile takeovers. the pill was set to expire in 2015 but was instead terminated today. aaron kessler is with raymond james and our own jon fortt joins us back here at post 9. guys, good morning. >> good morning. >> aaron, is this too hot to touch? >> yeah, a near stretch in the near term. it got even, the ceo commented

last quarter, said there might be some euphoria. so we think it's priced -- netflix is pricing a lot of good news at current levels. >> what is the key metric in the new year? will this be an international story, a pricing story? >> a combination of subgrowth as well as operating margins. this year, you saw it expand by 300 basis points. that was the positive upside. remember, last year, it was decelerating, but this year, accelerating, 6 million subs in the u.s., and 5 million internationally, and that was better than the expectations. >> aaron, nice pay hike for reid hastings, from 2 million in cash and 2 million in options to 3 million in cash and 3 million in options. should we read anything into that beyond the fact that they're feeling like they had a pretty good year and are rewarding their executives for that that? >> yeah, i think that's pretty much it. companies like to reward

executives that do put up the good numbers and clearly that's reflected in the shares here. so i think rewarding executives here for their good performance in 2013. >> and, aaron, what's the real profitability for netflix once all of the expansion takes place? we saw it the last year, it made virtually no money. the margins are pretty terrible. it's an expansion story now. once that happens, what's the true profit-making potential of this company? >> yeah, so they are expanding margins. as i said, they expanded roughly 300 basis point this is year. going back a couple of years, they had operating margins of 10%. we think they get back to that. we're looking for $8 in earnings power by 2015 and operating earnings are growing much faster than revenues now, as they get smarter about how they buy content in addition to the incremental revenues. we think margins will expand. >> how do you think their original content strategy transforms, if at all, going into the -- i mean, i'm mazed at

the amount of free publicity, now the new orange is black, and do they insist of ownership, do they accelerate release, do they dump it all at once, drivel it out like the networks? >> they do like to accelerate the investment in the original content. maybe a dozen shows a year, so that will be a positive trend to continue to expect to see, so see more engaged consumers and more retention. >> what do you think of the idea of netflix doing hardware? maybe even something as crazy as a tv, a tablet of their own? if you think about their model, if they could get the profit perhaps on a device and lock people in for a couple of years, that way, might that be an attractive way for them to expand going forward, taking a page maybe out of amazon's book? >> yeah, they had looked at that going back about five years and

spun that business off. so i think they were focused enough for a while, but they've had an adoption among the different hardware providers and they see less of a need of that. they've been able to partner with the major hardware companies including apple and google. so i think if they weren't getting included on those devices, they would look to do that, but since they're getting included already, there's no need. that's a relatively low-margin business for a lot of the companies in the hardware space. >> always hard to explain to folks who aren't familiar that they once were a red envelope company. it seems like a long time ago. aaron, have a great new year. we'll see you next time. >> you, too. thank you. are you drinking alone this new year's eve? thanks to our next guest, you'll never have to worry about your wine going bad. we'll explain in just a moment. : the energy in one gallon of gas is also enough to keep your smartphone running for how long? 30 days? 300 days? 3,000 days? the answer is... 3,000 days.

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♪ nice shot of times square there, the ball dropping just a few hours from now. wine takes a long time to age but take as couple of days to go bad once it's opened, or does it? there's a device that allows you to pour a glass of wine without ever opening the bottle. happy new year to you, and great to have you with us. you have a great story. you worked at j&j, had some experience with needle technology, so to speak, and one day, your wife gets pregnant, stops drinking, and you want to

have a glass of wine without committing to the whole bottle. >> that's exactly right. and i realized that once you pull the cork from the bottle, you're committed to that bottle. you'll be drinking it over the next couple of days, because it goes bad, as you said, due to oxygen. i had worked on needles, and i thought, there's a way to keep the cork in place, to get past it and get at the wine i want to drink. my dream was to have a wine bar in my house. drink any glass, any wine, by the glass. >> show us how this works? >> sure. a bottle given to me by the guy who runs a wine company, a bordeaux i had back in october with him. you take the corevin, push the needle through the cork, tip it sideways, push in argon gas, which is inert, and it won't react with wine, and that argon gas pushes the wine out of the bottle. you can pour as little or as much as you like. and when you're done, tip your hand up, let out the excess gas,

pull the needle out of the bottle, take it off -- [ laughter ] -- and no oxygen got in, wine came out, and you can drink this two, five, ten years later. >> i love this. tell us what happens to the cork when the needle comes out, because everybody's going to be skeptical, they don't want to ruin their $100, $200 bottle of wine here. does this really work? >> so my son is 14 years old now. and i spent 10 years testing this system, and actually the great thing about cork, is it's the most elastic solid that comes from nature. you can crush it down to 10% of its volume, and come back to 98%. i'd worked on needles that don't do damage to things, and it dilates its way through the cork and allows it to collapse once the needle. it uses the elasticity of the natural material. >> the dollars and cents focus, talk to us about what it costs per glass. >> so the system itself is $300, $299 and comes with two cartridges. each cartridge, depending on how fast you want to flow, will last

15, 20 glasses. so 60 cents, 65 cents. >> client based, i assume high-end retail, consumer? >> that's a great question. we've actually been surprised by the number of people who are using our system. so the home user is what i thought it would be good for, that was my problem i was trying to solve. my wife wants white, i want red. restaurants, a lot of the restaurants are serving higher-end, higher revenue. >> by the house. >> they can serve anything in the cellar. sales force for the wineries are using it to sample their wines. wine stores are allowing you to try before you buy, and the vineyards out in napa valley, sonoma, are using it for the library ones. >> what's the mass market strategy? are you able to come out with cheaper versions of this to get to your consumer who maybe isn't fully committed to wine? what do you do? >> it's a -- it's a challenge that we face. we actually were looking at the pricing of the system early on. we're actually selling a lot more than we thought we would at this price point. we are working on a cheaper

version. we're working on a higher-end version, as well, for restaurants that want certain things that consumers don't want. but actually, we've been really surprised, and in the u.s., a great market, europe is another area for us to grow -- >> in all honesty, isn't there some joy in saying the cork's off, i'll just finish the thing? >> there is. and even i still pull corks, and what's funnily, actually, i find i'm pulling corks on half bottles of wine where i've had two glasses over the last couple of years. >> it's a great story, especially on a day like today. >> cheers. enjoy your great glass. >> all right, thank you. how does this sound for the new year's eve? a buffet premium open bar, a house deejay, a dance floor, and a close spot to the ball drop in times square for 3 75 bucks.

what can $375 get you this new year's eve? how about a spot in times square, buffet, open bar, top-shelf liquor? all of that can be yours as long as you head to applebee's. our jane wells explains from los angeles this morning. hey, jane. >> hey, carl.

this -- good girl. this is the dole float here at the rose parade. here in pasadena, you'll have people camping out, putting the finishing touches, a $500,000 investment by dole. across the country where you are, they're expecting 1 million people tonight and some casual dining chains are charging five-star prices for access, food, and booze, none more aggressively than applebee's, charging $375 a ticket for people to eat, drink, celebrate with a great view of the ball dropping. 375 bucks for applebee's? that would buy you 24 orders of riblets? who would do such a thing? kathy and rob would. >> i can drink, deejay, dancing, stumble outside, look at the ball, have a good time. >> a male belly dancer. >> what made you pick the

applebee's location over another restaurant? >> the availability to come out into the street -- >> yeah, a lot of the others you had to pay hundreds of dollars to come out on the street. like above the party price. >> well, we originally were trying for -- what was it? bubba gump's, but they were on a lottery system, and then he started looking around. >> bubba gump's, olive garden, all of the places around here, they have same kind of deal. this one was pretty on the low end. a lot of them are 600, 700 bucks apiece. >> all right. no kidding. well, applebee's is charging 375 a head for times square. a vip table for two at ruby tuesday is going for 1,500, plus $165 service charge. the pretzel burgers better be awesome. and the vip champagne package at tgi friday is going for $1,100. so applebee's is a steal. i was spending new year's eve

once in a tgi friday's. i'll leave it at that. >> jane, thank you so much. happy new year to you, as always. jane wells in los angeles. the return of casual dining. >> i love the price. you know, the rule on real estate, buy the cheapest house in the best neighborhood, applebee's, great deal. jane had it right. >> happy new year. >> you, too. great to visit with you. >> happy new year to you, as well. let's get back to headquarters and scott wapner and the "halftime." all right. the first half in the book and here are the highlights so far. >> -- going to say the pope shouldn't be talking about the disparity of wealth and the poor being left behind in our society? >> have you read -- >> the pope is not going to listen to what ken langone has to say. >> the problem with abercrombie, it used to resonate, and now it doesn't. they need to shake things up, change the board around. i can't believe they re-signed jeffries. >> i can report that dan 's