high dividend. i think this one rolls higher. >> guy? >> josh clearly watched last week's show. crocs. good price action there. >> thanks for watching. we i'm melissa lee. see you tomorrow at 5:00. "mad money" starts right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you some money. my job is not just to entertain you but to educate you so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. it's obvious that we have a bad year coming, right? isn't that what the stats say when you start off a bad day

like today? s&p sank 0.89%. nasdaq down 0.80. it's obvious as the other wills that kept you from winning last year. now, let's think about this together. in many ways 2013 was the most obvious of years. obviously meant to be negative that is. investors were obviously fearful of anything from washington. including smaller changes in taxes set at the beginning of the year to stop us from falling off to fiscal cliff. that many thought would disable the economy. 2013 was a year we were defaulting on our own debt. we bumbled into something too stupid to believe, the sequester and our government shut down which obviously, obviously, obviously should have crippled the economy. there was a year -- it was a year when international crises like the cypriot bank troubles, chinese slowdown, holy cow!

well, that should have reverberate negatively throughout our economy because obviously we're all connected, aren't we? this was the year where $100 oil was obviously going to stop whatever consumer spending that was left in the country if the horrific part of some rancor in washington. to 2013, was a year where a sudden spike in interest rates almost doubled the yield on the ten year treasure which dealt a death blow to the housing market and obviously, crushed auto sales. because of more difficult financing. this was the year when obama was obviously supposed to crush small business and break hiring costs and long-term problems and therefore had to be stopped at any and all costs. that's what obamacare meant. it had to be stopped by a small and powerful group of republicans who thought the whole act unconscionable even that the law of the land couldn't be repealed by this

congress. 2013 was a year that so many companies faltered in sales and their stocks had gone up in price that they'd be pole axed when the fed said they'd have to taper in spite of the bountiful profits they racked up. what happened instead? a very nonobvious 29.6% return for dividends with the dow, along with the return. as companies and the ceos triumphed over sluggish growth, albeit growth that got stronger. culminating in the solid gdp numbers and a hiring boom. consumers spent more not less. they did it in different, unconventional ways. mostly online. remember creanes? it began to come back as pent-up demand kept the housing and auto market strong. i think the key question to ask as we begin the new year how

could a series of obviously negative events amount to such positives for the economy and then most important for "mad money" the stock market? the simple answer is that the numerous naysayers in this market forgot some basic laws of supply and demand. first, demand finally caught up with the supply of everything from housing, autos, related products to computers and cell phones. even the desktops and laptops and the commercial buildings which astonishingly stopped being built in most areas of the country. sometimes people forget, liker ott for, we are a growth economy. even if you think there would be little growth without the fed. something that i believe will prove demonstrably false in the coming years. most important, demand caught up with the supply of the critical component -- of stock. as many companies used the downturn to buy back gobs of stock. while others managed to acquire their way or split their way

into further growth. almost every single acquisition bought stocks of major magnitude. but there's not enough stock being created. as demand for higher quality equities and stocks involved with the internet, social, mobile and cloud, as well as companies that pay you decent divide dividends, the demand was voracious. plus, it was derided by those who high jacked the discourse who proclaimed it was a big bubble. as anyone knows, i'd logs are never wrong. they will keep their foot in the cds with immunity. i despise them. i despise them for preventing you from making money. now we can castigate those who think we have to be in the risk on risk off mode, but turn a

nation into the poorly timed renters instead of new and well endowed investors. but the risk on/off crowd, well, they'll get a free pass too. isn't that the nature of the game? nothing sticks to those who use wall street gibberish. no one uses the terms anymore. i'm relentless when i think someone is confusing investors to try to sound knowledgeable and cool. we can criticize everyone who blew this government's troubles out of proportion not realizing that the shenanigans had nothing to do with the price to earnings multiple. something unlike the risk on risk off garbage. but the poo-poo bears, sorry e.b. white will get a free pass too. they won't be ridiculed because they're good guests because the

commentators must maintain neutrality in the name of what? i can't figure it out. ratings? the bears will not be called out by their bullish peers because the peers are vulnerable to attack for being too bullish when they're taken apart by the looming bear market that has been around the corner now for five years. isn't it always -- isn't that why people abandon ship for every obvious negative i ticked uf at the beginning if they say something bullish, long may your youtube embarrassment run. so now a new year begins, a new year filled with the obvious negatives of new fed chair, president who despises the republicans and those who are smart enough to see the damage they cause. debt ceiling fight coming. i guess that's going to cause an 8% decline. let's jot that down on the calendar. i can say the obvious negatives will be more obvious now that

stocks have advanced so much that anyone who is bullish will be as much as a charlatan as they were this time last year. let me give you the bottom line. don't be scared away by all of the obvious negatives touted by the naysayers. there was a lot of obvious things wrong in 2013 and stocks roared. i bet they keep roaring in 2014. even as i know i will be castigated obviously. obviously for being too bullish. especially given the fact that the stock market was down badly today. and get this. if you stay tuned for my dow jones predictions for 2014, they're positive. wow. what a mortal sin to say. mark in ohio, mark? >> caller: oh, jim, a big booyah from the buckeye state. with all the talk about a sprint/t mobile merger how would you play sprint today? >> i think the merger may be as unlikely as the bengals taking it all. but, you know, i mean, some guys out there who think that.

i think there was a -- it's moved up too much and downgraded i think the downgrade was right. i like notre dame hesse a great deal and let it come back andp this we can pull the trigger. michael in california, michael? >> caller: hi, booyah, jim. >> booyah, michael. >> caller: i have been trading for about a year, jim, and i watch you all the time. i watch -- anyway, make a long story short, i bought gm on your guidance. >> right. >> caller: a little while back ago and i just -- i have got a third of my portfolio there. i bought another hundred shares today. and right before the close, got it at the same price i -- >> right. >> caller: i bought the other at. >> i don't like to have 30% of a portfolio in any one particular stock. even as i think gm is a terrific

stock. and it's a core position in my charitable trust. i need you to scale back on any strength. you are undiversified, sir, i won't tolerate that. the obvious negatives didn't stop the strength of the market in 2013. i don't want it to in 2014 either. happy new year, cramerica. let's get through it and prosper together. "mad money" will be right back. >> coming up, the ball's dropped and 2014 is here. it's time to resolve to make this year your most profitable yet. and cramer has the insight you need from tech to fitness, even your phone. today, we're breaking down the best places to invest this year. including cramer's favorite stock for 2014. don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @jimcramer on twitter. have a question? tweet cramer, #madtweets.

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on the first trading day of 2014, after a year with the dow jones industrial average surged almost 30% with dividends i think it's worth figuring out how much higher the stocks can travel over the next 12 months. and because i believe we're returning to a market that's terrific for stock pickers. ♪ hallelujah >> something i explained in my just released book, "get rich carefully," we are going bottoms up here, analyzing all 30 names in the dow. 30 of the most important companies in the market in one show. it's good to be back! let's take them down. first there's american express, a stock i own in my charitable trust which you can follow along with. i don't know, i thought it got too high. i have to tell you while i think america's best is short term

overvalued and vulnerable, the stock is loved to death. i think it will stay that way throughout the last half of 2014. so can amex rally after it cools its heels a at a lower level? i think for most stocks in the dow it will gravitate to 17 times earnings. a nice boost in the multiple as the economy expands that tends to happen and that will make it a $100 stock eventually. i think it can go lower because it's had a big run in the quarter. second, we have at&t. if this company does absolutely nothing the stock could still go higher. thanks to the general improvement in economic conditions. that said, candidly, i'm not a fan of at&t. don't buy. don't buy. they're trying to embrace cloud, the social media, but you know what? verizon is chasing that exact same theme. verizon has real momentum as does sprint. for at&t i think it will give us

a tangential boost. it will move up to $36, $37. how, if management buys things overseas where the growth is faster, this stock could go a lot higher. next up is boeing! here's a company run by a great, great man. that's jim mcnerney, a bankable ceo and i think it's about to have a phenomenal year. difficult after boeing already was the best performing stock in the dow last year, but the company is only in the second year of a plane cycle with the dreamliner. they will build them faster and cheaper, particularly as if it moves production out of washington. well, that's for other planes. but you never know. that means you're going to see earnings leverage galore for b.a. the dreamliner looks like a smashing success, especially when you consider all the they s sayers. the airline business has never been this healthy, and china is building airports left and right! like there's no tomorrow.

this is boeing's time, people. and let's not forget the average cycle lasts seven years before the profits peak. for the dreamliner, hey that's five years away. i see the stock going to $170 by year end. nice move for the 130s. number four, very controversial, is caterpillar. i have to think that this is the most hated stock in the dow. guess what? i think this hated stock is going to turn into a beautiful butterfly. caterpillar, butterfly. this is exactly the kind of stock to buy when the global economy is picking up speed and this hee-- and that's happening the u.s. and china. plus, if caterpillar lets go of the incompetent, sorry, had to say it, doug overhelm, i see the stock going to $100 lickety-split. this is about super low expectations, they have gotten so low, that if china hangs in there and europe destabilizes

and we get construction, i think they'll deliver on the fourth quarter this year and guess what? $110. fifth dow stock, chevron. this is a play on the oil and gas revolution, a huge theme i talk about in "get rich carefully," but the smaller ones have the most exposure, and therefore more upside hurt by the terrible rail incident. but chevron has been stuck in neutral. it's really become a company that's either not here or there. i can't see the stock rallying more than five or six bucks. on the other hand, i love love love love breakup, a whole chapter in the new book and if they split out into chemicals and et cetexploration and produ it would take the stock up. next dow name, cisco. i wish the food service sysco were on the dow. i was amazed they finished in the black. the company has reported weaker and weaker numbers. quarter after quarter. i see no end in sight.

well, the competitors are cutting to pieces. that said, hope springs eternal. i think the stock can make its way back to $25 where it was before the most recent shortfall. the comparisons will be easy by year's end. i will say this. the stock could go much higher if the board of directors simply forces the retirement bumps up ceo chambers to chairman. sadly, i think they're enamored of this guy. dow stuck at seven, coca-cola. i think coke, got to do something big. why? because carbonated soft drinks and diet which i have sworn off for 2014 and regular which i never drink anyway, are declining. we could start to see the tobaccoization of this industry and that doesn't support the lofty, multiple -- the paltry yield doesn't do it for me. however, a change in management, potential acquisition making

them less dependent on soda, i can see them going to $45. however, if warren buffett were to sell, it would be $35. the next one is disney. the great bob iger, he does it reported. the market reacted, and although i thought it was a darn good quarter i said it on this and on "squawk on the street," excellent numbers from espn and a fabulous theme park business, the market confirmed my view. a dozen point run and why i think disney can keep roaring after the nearly 50% move last year, the star wars franchise is now on the horizon. on the calendar. as we get to the end here, the hype of the new star wars film will be rife and i think they'll get a much higher price. the earnings won't go down as the interest rates rise. i see it going to $80. next we have double d -- dupont. we'll find out what a

noncommoditized dupont is made of. i was thrilled when i learned the company would be spinning off the ultra commoditized titanium dioxide business, announced on my show. it will give dupont a higher multiple next year as well as 2014. i think it can trade to $80 a share by december. and that would make it one of the best performers for 2014 thanks to the great work of the ceo, ellen coleman. tenth dow stock, exxon mobil. i can't believe my words i'm about to be positive. after multiple years of being an oil bank, exxon is hitting pay dirt. myriad projects. and should grow to make the others jealous. envy, exxon. it's easy to own because of the oil and the gas renaissance and because warren buffett bought a big position and his buys carry enormous weight. even if they're wrong. see this being bid up

exorbitantly. it could go as high as $115. hey, a huge move for a $100 stock. that's without oil going much higher than where it is. 2014 is going to be a real good year for stock picking which is why i'm going through all 30 names, so you can pick the ones you like. they're looking positive, although not as positive as 2013. stay tuned. i'll give you my next batch of predictions after the break. coming up -- this industrial giant was hit hard in 2000 -- 2008 and the stocks are far from the prerecession high. now as global growth returns cramer thinks it can return to its former glory. and plus, cramer's favorite stock of 2014. find out who just ahead. so ally bank has a raise your rate cd

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as my new year's present to all of you tonight i'm giving you my 2014 predictions for all 30 stocks in the dow jones industrial average. i went through the first ten names. now i have ten more with the final batch coming after the break. remember, we're talking about bottoms up. that's a stock by stock approach that builds in today's weakness.

i have factored it in. because i believe this is becoming a fabulous moment for stock pickers. you don't want to miss it because we're down a couple percent in the first couple of days of the day. number 11, general electric. you know what i think g.e. is finally ready to roar now that it's shutting down the toxic part of the portfolio and spinning off another noncore piece of business in order to focus on the great industrial company again. the remainder is a solid manufacturer of aerospace, locomotives, medical equipment and oil and gas equipment. if g.e. makes a couple more acquisitions in the oil patch, it will be an energy saving company. i own it in my charitable trust and i think the stock will climb back to the 40s from the 20s this year. based on solid economic growth and the removal of the mill stone around the neck that was the finance business.

next up, goldman sachs. i think they'll be a beneficiary of the volcker rule. they were the foremostcentric focused brokerage house. it was about the client. that was the reason they had a premium multiple and not a discount as it does now. but it became shackled by the market. so i think the fact that volcker takes them off the table is actually a positive. a positive, people. now, look, as a goldman sachs alum, i bet it will boost the multiple dramatically. in fact, i can see them earning $20 this year and trading at say i don't know, let's give it an 11 multiple. i think the stock going to see the low 200s, maybe 220, 230, whoa. dow stock number 14, home depot. this broke out of the $80 range at the end of the year. and housing prices are coming back. then we'll start to see a real

boom in spending on homes. right now we're still running well -- well below the historical average level of spending on homes. a percentage of gdp that should step up as unemployment improves. home depot under the terrific ceo frank blake has bought back a ton of stock over the past few years, bringing the share count down from the 2 billion to just 1.4 billion. i checked the numbers three times that will lead to much heftier profits. but they have virtually stopped adding new stores in this country. they can get up to $82. i think it should expand now that the economy sgetding better. then we have a real conundrum, we have ibm. ibm is hit by cloud commuting. a big part of the social mobile and cloud that i highlight in "get rich carefully." nobody trusts it except for warren buffett.

but perhaps ibm can restructure again. maybe it will be able to take advantage of the global economic expansion kind of a gdp play. either way i don't see the stock having a hard time trading to $200 because it will be soon going up against easy comparisons and buffett will talk about it and people will buy it. yeah. number 15, intel. another one that's being challenged by the new holy trinity of tech. but unlike ibm, i am a real fan of intel. in fact, my charitable trust has been buying it because it's clear that they're going the way of the personal computers. cheaper and use up a lot less battery life and they cost much less to me. plus, the company has more new chips out there than i can ever recall in the history of intel. still has a terrific balance sheet and it's shedding weaker divisions. at least i hope cutting back on the capital spending. if intel has a downside surprise i bet the stock wouldn't go down much at all. if it does, $30.

then there's j&j. they have been stalled lately because of the rotation that came from stronger economy. but it hasn't made me lose confidence in the famous stock one bit. and i think this is a classic example of a company cha could benefit from breaking itself up. hence, i devoted an entire chapter in the new book. i beat the ceo will shed j&j slow growing diagnostic business, buy back stock and focus on the faster growing pharma franchise. wall street is looking for j&j to earn $5.50 per share. i think that's conservative. especially when you consider the weakened dollar boosting the value of the companies overseas. i see earnings closer to six bucks. i'm giving it an 18 multiple and take the stock to $108. wow, the profits are brimming here. next up is jpmorgan. i don't think people realize how much earning power they have with the rising rates when it's not become hectored by the justice department.

a lot of people thought they'd be hurt by the volcker rule, but i think that's short sided. people will once again be able to figure out the bank's normalized earnings stream and they'll pay for more it. plus, they accumulated a ton of market power. i think 2014 is time to shine. i see it rallying to $75 from the current $58 purchase. i do expect an excellent first quarter. again controversial is mcdonald's. they're getting eating alive by the consumer's healthy eating and people are fleeing for panera bread and chipotle. i don't want to write it off. if they can put together positive numbers i bet it will go to $110 in a hurry. they can make it to the $105 because the ceo will have been at the helm to figure out what

the heck is wrong and he'll fix it. and then we have merck. the animal health division should be spun off. i have a hard time in seeing how they can trade above $55 given the sub par performance. number 20 is microsoft. here's another company that's being squeezed by the new social mobile and cloud imperatives but if the ceo breaks microsoft up, into are you listening, you ceo, the utility and the gaming, i think the market will rejoice. this is the only stock where the sum of the parts is worth more than the whole. they can go up on the vision and the excuse of a new ceo. by announcing the breakup. here's the bottom line as we work through the 30 stocks, you can see even the worst of the bunch should rally. stay tuned, i'll give you my forecast for the final ten breaks after the "lightning round."

let's go to dewitt in delaware. >> caller: happy new year, jim. what's your advice on mcgraw-hill financial? >> i like it very much. it's a terrific buy. i should be featuring it more. a lot of people keep thinking that the past is dogging it. that is untrue. i think it's clear sailing. can i go to ken in new york, please. ken. >> caller: hello, jim. how about a big new year's new york booyah. >> i'm going to have to give you a snowy new york booyah. what's up? >> caller: i want your opinion on three quality companies that i've held for a long time. and i want to see what you thought of them, please. >> okay. >> caller: p.h., parker when afen. boeing and disney. >> oh, boy. three unabbelievable companies. this something that the demons that i have had to deal with in my life. i want to sell something because they're up so much because they're all quality companies. so you shnizal.

take a little off the table and let the rest run. is one of your new year's resolution to make money? why don't we do it together, starting with a hard look at all of the dow names. after the "lightning round" the final ten dow stocks. write them down and of course, stick with cramer. tomorrow, kick off the trading day with "squawk on the street." live from post 9 at the nysc. >> it's why you're a great partner because we have to balance each other out. >> it all starts at 9:00 a.m. eastern.

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endorsed by aarp... and provided by unitedhealthcare insurance company, which has over 30 years of experience behind it. with all the good years ahead, look for the experience and commitment to go the distance with you. call now to request your free decision guide. >> announcer: lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade. >> it is time. it is time for the lightning round, the first one of 2014. you say the name of the stock. i don't know the calls or the name of the stock ahead of time. i tell you whether to buy or sell. when you hear this sound -- [ buzzer ] -- then the lightning round is over. are you ready, skee-daddy? time for the "lightning round." albert in tennessee. albert! >> caller: booyah. what's going on? i had a question about leapfrog.

>> entertainment. no. i'd rather own hasbro even though it's not as educational. brian in texas. brian? >> caller: brian from ft. worth. a big booyah to you. >> what's up? >> caller: i wanted to ask you about the company called dominion, the big "d..." >> duke is very, very good. dominion is better because they're the -- they're the natural gas exporter. remember we have too much natural gas in this country. gary in delaware. >> caller: how you doing, booyah. >> booyah right back at you. >> caller: i'm a first-time caller. i enjoy the call and the book too. >> oh, man, thank you very much. it came out yesterday. >> caller: yeah. i actually just bought it on amazon prime yesterday. very cool. >> thank you. >> caller: but my question is on the little -- funny little stock

which is a a nonmoney making entity, across the biotech and a 3-d printing company. been an excellent stock in my portfolio last year. i started to buy it in march. human tissue for -- >> okay. >> caller: and other procedures. they don't make a dime. >> right. >> caller: but, you know, initial testing on the technology is -- the stock son a tear. >> what is the stock? >> caller: organovo. >> you're right, it's on tear. i can make a good case for it. let's go to bob in pennsylvania. bob? >> caller: hey, bobby c, booyah, big jim. >> i'm liking that. sounds like philadelphia talking. i feel there saturday, what's up? >> caller: gta makes safier glass. >> i know, i like this company.

i have to tell you we like time-max. take a profit there on the trifecta. a great newsletter from the street. whatever. but i think you've got a good one there. i like gt advanced technologies. a little speculative but i can make my peace with it. and that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the "lightning round." >> announcer: the lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade. on the trading floor in real time. ♪ the shell brought him great fame. ♪ but then, one day, he noticed that everybody could have a magic seashell. [ indistinct talking ] [ male announcer ] right there in their trading platform. ♪ [ indistinct talking continues ] [ male announcer ] so the magic shell went back to being a...shell. get live squawks right in your trading platform with think or swim from td ameritrade.

of the dusty basement at 1406 35th street the old dining table at 25th and hoffman.

...and the little room above the strip mall off roble avenue. ♪ this magic moment it is the story of where every great idea begins. and of those who believed they had the power to do more. dell is honored to be part of some of the world's great stories. that began much the same way ours did. in a little dorm room -- 2713. ♪ this magic moment ♪

tonight we're going one by one through the dow industrial index, stock by stock. because i think 2014 is going to be a terrific year for the market. but more importantly for stock picking. why? because the bountiful profit, the mother's milk of higher stock prices. i want to show you why through i think what i think is rigorous bottoms up analysis. we have gone through the first 20 stocks of the venerable index. let's wrap it up. number 21 is nike. i like to think of nike as a stealth technology play. one of the namasters about in "t rich carefully" and my charitable trust opens it too.

the chinese orders weren't that strong, but i bet they will turn on the strength this year. and it will turn because the economy getting better there. and the u.s. and western europe were very strong and they'll stay that way. i was honestly surprised that china didn't roar. but nike can be a counterintuitive stock. management has a great habit of fixing things quickly. it wouldn't be a stretch to see it trade as high as 90. up from $78.80 making it one of the most expensive stocks right know. it's great growth company. and it will only do better as the year goes on. next up is pfizer. this a company challenged by the four horseman of the pharma apox lips. did you see celgene today? i think it will tread water in 2014. i see it as being hard pressed to go above $34. look, at the end of the day, i just see pfizer as one of the bigger blahs, the dogs of the

day. i don't know, maybe it has something up its sleeve but i don't think so. number 23 is proctor & gamble. i think people will bail on the slower growing p&g in favor of the industrials look at the end of last year. however, i think they would be wrong to sell. i think the ceo will make some big changes in 2014. i think this is why you must own it. frankly the company is too big and layered. still a lot of heavy lifting to do this is the time to buy proctor when a lot can be done. hence, i think the stock can run to $95 up from $80.54. but i wouldn't be surprised if it went to $78 first. especially if it splits off the slower growing divisions. then there's travelers. it's raising prices, buying back stocks. it does better with higher interest rates. however, they have the same problem in 2014, the other guys. many insurance companies unlike travelers screwed up so badly

during the down turn that they have a lot of upside potentials. that's why i prefer a stock like hartford for my charitable trust over travelers because hartford is still coming and travelers do it right. still, travellers remember they invest in yields. i can see the stock go to $100 from $80 to where it is right now. 29 is united health. it seems to have nine lives. here's the health insurance name that was supposed to be get scalded by obamacare, but yet it's coming out on top. they have a voracious buyback. i think they're in a win win situation. if obamacare keep hobbling on, they'll be a white knight. and if it falters, they'll win again. next up, one of my favorites united technologies. dow stock you should own right now.

the last pronouncements which included some reflection on sequester took a lot of risk out of the stock. that's despite the fact that the shares are not seeing the potential rewards from the brilliant goodrich acquisition and at a time when aerospace is the strongest industry in the world. plus, i see the air conditioning division, thanks to the revival of commercial construction in the united states. however, if they do believe in it and it seems like they started to when the stock finished 2013 amazingly strong, then united technologies will held to $135 from $112 as today. that would be a terrific advance. how about number 27, verizon. i think the new verizon is facing serious competition from revitalized sprint and t-mobile and at&t that's hanging in. there however, we have heard attack about a potential merger. and if that happens which i

don't think it will, but it could heaappen, i think verizon climbs back. i don't see verizon gaining much more than that, because the company talked about how the vodafone deal is. when they bought the verizon wireless from verizon. then there's visa. letter "v," you know what? this is maybe one of my absolute favorites in 2014. why? because people didn't like the last quarter. they were wrong. i say what's not to like? feels like disney when they didn't like it. this remains a terrific company. just a consistent higher growth, financial that the portfolio managers crave. there's a ridiculous disparity between visa and mastercard right now. i'm not sure there should be a discount, frankly. but if you give it the same multiple as mastercard, you end up with a $280 stock. next up, number 29, walmart. first, there's a new ceo. you know i hate owning a stock

during the ceo's freshman year. next it's getting squeezed by whole foods to kroger even amazon. boy, the frugality theme is big. in short, walmart is the whipping boy of retail. it has too much heft to disappoint. i wouldn't be surprised if the stock flounders all year. last but not least, 3-m when will the ceo get his due? he's slowly but suring adding more growth to innovation. giving his company a strong gdp kicker. unless you looked through the recent earnings presentation under the hood, you might not know how much of 3-m new -- it's just been invented, this company is a research and development emerging powerhouse. it's growing at an impressive rate. i think you can trade up to $160 a share from $138 at the moment. it's a big cap international company that happens to be located in the u.s.

perfect for portfolio managers who want growth in the dividend and even some excitement. here's the bottom line, you want to know if 2014 is a good year? 30 stocks in the dow jones industrial average and of them all i only expect wal-mart will be down this year. the rest are drifting slowly higher or off to the races. happy new year, everybody. stick with cramer. aflac! aflac! got 'em. ♪ yeah, he's clean, boss. now listen to me, duck. i have an associate that met with, uh, an unfortunate accident.

while he's been incapacitated, somebody's been paying him cash. now, is this your doing? aflac? now, if i met with some such accident, would aflac pay me? ♪ nice. this is your stop. [ male announcer ] find out what aflac can do for you and your family... aflac? [ male announcer ] ...at aflac.com.

if you take a look at what happened, what worked in the fourth quarter, you can see why i wrote right up top in "get rich carefully" that the only economic number worth following is the labor department payroll number that comes out first friday of every month. i controls the first quarters. we have purchasing management report, retail sales, new and used home sales. durable goods, inflation, and fed minutes and this index of housing prices. i don't want to say you should throw all of these away. but that they mean nothing. they can impact pricing in bonds and they have to be reported on because they are indeed news. but for the most part, these data points have no lasting impact at least when compared to the nonfarm payroll report. it was the number that predicted the down turn and led to the wholesale shift in stock focus, the big rotation in the fourth quarter which was vital to picking the right stocks that

outperformed substantially in the latter half of 2013. i might that sound unfair to every big number that comes out, but let's look at what happened in the fourth quarter. as soon as the first good payroll numbers showed up, investors started to dump everything soft good. sell sell sell sell. it was incredible. general mills, kellogg, pfizer, coca-cola, j&j. it was as if the stocks caught the plague. if you stay with them or didn't pay back your positions because you wanted to be diversified, i don't blame you one bit. your portfolio stopped increasing in value. it's important to recognize that unless there was a new break through drug, as was the case with gilead, and the hepatitis c drug, the same underlying performance hit in bio tech, stopping the group in its tracks. now, let's compare that with a couple of industrials. take 3-m.

despite some downgrades, from one important firm, this stock would not quit. buy buy buy. when it was hammered by the downgrade, lots of people wrote off 3-m. but the more excellent growth numbers are showing it, it kept soaring or consider union pacific. they preannounced the short fall and then it had a sustained advance. it wasn't the trains though. despite endless may i saw worthless valuation downgrades of federal express, that stock never quit. but perhaps the most glaring outperformance came from the machinery and other stocks. cummings had horrendous guidance and then because of robust job growth, the stock roared ahead. rallying above where it was when it preannounced the down side. sure, the stock got hurt today, but i tend to regard that as a buy not a selling opportunity.

caterpillar's sad management couldn't execute on its own sound world view. so they cut guidance drastically. but the stock rallied anyway. something i point out in "get rich carefully" that means a bottom is in. it's in place. the only news alcoa will turn out to be an outrageously stupid downgrade from deutsche bank. at the bottom. as the stock took off. not because of the inventories or the order books which don't look so good, but simply because of the economic expansion that the employment number foretold here the pattern is very clear, people. the labor department nonfarm payroll is the number. if history is right and the next number is strong then this outperformance will be reinforced regardless of any concerns and that's what i bank on. and why between now and next friday when the number comes out, i would be a buyer not a seller of anything that needs a smoke stack to make it happen.

especially many of the stocks that got pummelled today. stay with cramer. get ready to invest in yourself and your future. order jim cramer's new book, "get rich carefully." discover new secrets and skills and get straight talk on making money in a recovering economy. go and order your copy today.

welcome to 2014. let's say there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to find it for you right here at "mad money." it was a great 2013. but 2014 does start out badly, 1 drops on the dow, but i see it as a good opportunity, legalization of marijuana sales beginning in colorado, but most of the news stories are presenting it in a giddy fashion, there is time for a sober look. there are addiction issues that could do harm to the whole country and the economy. we'll have