are prone to infections, or have symptoms such as fever, fatigue, cough, or sores. you should not start humira if you have any kind of infection. ask your doctor if humira can work for you. this is humira at work. >> my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you some money. my job is not just to entertain you but to educate you, so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. it's obvious that we have a bad year coming, right? isn't that what the stats say

when you start off the year with a down day like today? s&p sank 0.89%. nasdaq down 0.80. it's just as obvious as those other ills that kept you from winning last year. now, let's think about this together. in many ways 2013 was the most obvious of years. obviously meant to be negative, that is. investors were obviously fearful of anything from washington, including smaller changes in taxes set at the beginning of the year to stop us from falling off the fiscal cliff that many thought would disable the economy. 2013 was a year we were almost defaulting on our own debt. we actually bumbled into something too stupid to believe, the sequester, and our government shut down, which obviously, obviously, obviously should have crippled the economy. there was a year -- it was a year when international crises like the cypriot bank troubles,

brazilian collapse, chinese slowdown, holy cow! well, that should have reverberated negatively throughout our economy because obviously we're all connected, aren't we? this was the year where $100 oil was obviously going to stop whatever consumer spending that was left in the country if the horrific partisan rancor in washington. to 2013, was a year where a sudden spike in interest rates almost doubled the yield on the ten year treasury which obviously dealt a death blow to the housing market and obviously crushed auto sales because of more difficult financing. this was the year when obama was obviously supposed to crush small business and break hiring costs and long-term problems and therefore had to be stopped at any and all costs. that's what obamacare meant. it had to be stopped by a small and powerful group of republicans who thought the whole act unconscionable, even that the law of the land couldn't be repealed by this congress.

most of all, 2013 was a year that so many companies faltered in sales and their stocks had gone up so much in price that they'd obviously be pole axed when the fed said they'd have to taper in spite of the bountiful profits they racked up. all these things were allegedly obvious. what happened instead? a very nonobvious 29.6% return for dividends with the dow, along with the return. as companies and the ceos triumphed over sluggish growth, albeit growth that got stronger as the year went on, culminating in the solid gdp numbers and the beginnings of a hiring boom. consumers spent more, not less. they did it in different, unconventional ways. mostly online. construction. remember cranes? it began to come back as pent-up demand kept the housing and auto market strong. i think the key question to ask

as we begin the new year is how could a series of such obviously negative events amount to such positives for the economy, and then most important for "mad money" the stock market? the simple answer is that the numerous naysayers in this market forgot some basic laws of supply and demand. first, demand finally caught up with the supply of pretty much everything from housing, autos, related products to hard goods like computers and cell phones. even the desktops and laptops and the commercial buildings which astonishingly stopped being built in most areas of the country. sometimes people forget, like it or not, we are a growth economy. even if you think there would be little growth without the fed, something that i believe will prove demonstrably false in the coming years. most important, demand caught up with the supply of a critical component -- of stock. as many companies used the downturn to buy back gobs of

stock, causing a shortage of quality equities, while others managed to acquire their way or split their way into further growth. almost every single acquisition bought stocks of major magnitude. but there's not enough stock being created. as demand for higher quality equities and stocks involved with the internet, social, mobile and cloud, as well as companies that pay you decent dividends, the demand was simply voracious. plus, the demand was destructed or derided by those who high jacked the discourse who proclaimed it was a big bubble. as anyone knows, ideologues are never wrong. they will keep their foot into cds with immunity. i despise them. i despise them for preventing you from making money. now we can castigate those who fooled us to think we have to be

in the risk on risk off mode at all times, do anything but turn a nation into the poorly timed renters instead of new and well endowed investors. but the risk on/off crowd, well, they'll get a free pass too. isn't that the nature of the game? nothing sticks to those who use real wall street gibberish to obscure reality. no one uses these terms anymore. something i'm proud of. i'm relentless when i think someone is confusing investors for no reason other than to try to sound knowledgeable and cool. we can criticize everyone who blew this government's troubles out of proportion, or some other country, not realizing that the shenanigans had nothing to do with the price to earnings multiple of bristol myers. something unlike the risk on risk off garbage. but the poo-poo bears, sorry e.b. white, will get a free pass, too. they won't be ridiculed because

they're good guests, because the commentators must maintain neutrality in the name of what? i can't figure it out. page views? ratings? the bears will not be called out by their bullish peers because their peers are too vulnerable to attack for being too bullish when they're taken apart by the looming bear market that has been around the corner now for five years. isn't it always -- isn't that why so many people abandon ship for every obvious negative i ticked of at the beginning. if they say something bullish and we go down, long may your youtube embarrassment run. so now a new year begins, a new year filled with the obvious negatives of new fed chair, president who despises the republicans, even as we get a budget deal led by those who are smart enough to see the damage they caused. debt ceiling fight coming. i guess that's going to cause an 8% decline. let's jot that down on the calendar. i can say the obvious negatives

will be even more obvious now that stocks have advanced so much that anyone who is bullish will be as much of a charlatan as they were this time last year. let me give you the bottom line. don't be scared away by all of the obvious negatives touted by the naysayers. there were a lot of obvious things wrong in 2013 and stocks roared. i bet they keep roaring in 2014, even as i know i will be castigated obviously. obviously for being too bullish, especially given the fact that the stock market was down badly today. and get this. if you stay tuned for my dow jones predictions for 2014, they're positive. wow. what a mortal sin to say. mark in ohio, mark? >> caller: oh, jim, a big booyah from the buckeye state. with all the talk about a sprint/t-mobile merger, how would you play sprint today? >> i think the merger may be as unlikely as the bengals taking it all. but, you know, i mean, some guys out there who think that.

i think there was a downgrade of sprint. it's moved up too much and downgraded i think the downgrade was right. i like dan notre dame hesse a great deal and let it come back and we can pull the trigger. michael in california, michael? >> caller: hi, booyah, jim. >> booyah, michael. >> caller: i have been trading for about a year, jim, and i watch you all the time. i watch -- anyway, make a long story short, i bought gm on your guidance. >> right. >> caller: a little while back ago, and i just -- i have got a third of my portfolio there. i bought another hundred shares today, and right before the close, got it at the same price i -- >> right. >> caller: i bought the other at. what do you think it's going to do? >> i don't like to have 30% of a portfolio in any one particular

stock, even as i think gm is a terrific stock. and it's a core position in my charitable trust. i need you to scale back on any strength. you are undiversified, sir, and i won't tolerate that. the obvious negatives didn't stop the strength of the market in 2013. i don't want it to in 2014, either. happy new year, cramerica. let's get through it and prosper together. "mad money" will be right back. >> coming up, the ball's dropped and 2014 is here. it's time to resolve to make this year your most profitable yet, and cramer has the insight you need. from tech to fitness, and even your phone, today, we're breaking down the best places to invest this year, including cramer's favorite stock for 2014. don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @jimcramer on twitter. have a question? tweet cramer, #madtweets.

send jim an e-mail to madmoney@cnbc.com or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc. miss something? head to madmoney.cnbc.com.

on the first trading day of 2014, after a year where the dow jones industrial average surged almost 30% with dividends, i think it's worth figuring out how much higher the stocks in this index can travel over the next 12 months. and because i believe we're returning to a market that's terrific for stock pickers. ♪ hallelujah >> something i explained in my just released book, "get rich carefully," we are going bottoms up here, analyzing all 30 names in the dow, one stock at a time. 30 of the most important companies in the market in one show. it's good to be back! let's take them down. first there's american express, a stock i own for my charitable trust which you can follow along with. i don't know, i thought it just got too high. i have to tell you while i think

american express is short term overvalued and vulnerable, the stock is loved to death. i think it will stay that way throughout the last half of 2014. so can amex rally after it cools its heels at a lower level? i think for most stocks in the dow it will gravitate toward 17 times earnings. a nice boost from the current multiple as the economy expands that tends to happen and that will make it a $100 stock eventually. i think it can go lower because it's had such a big run in the quarter. second, we have at&t. if this company does absolutely nothing, the stock could still go higher thanks to the general improvement in economic conditions. that said, candidly, i'm not a fan of at&t. don't buy. don't buy. they're trying to embrace social media, mobile, cloud, the trinity, but you know what? verizon is chasing that exact same theme.

verizon has real momentum as does sprint. for at&t i think it will give us a tangential boost. it will move up to $36, $37. however, if management starts buying things overseas where the growth is faster, this stock could go a lot higher. next up is boeing! here's a company run by a great, great man. that's jim mcnerney, a bankable ceo and i think it's about to have another phenomenal year. difficult after boeing already was the best performing stock in the dow last year, but the company is really only in the second year of a new plane cycle with the dreamliner. they will build these planes faster and cheaper, particularly if it moves production out of washington. well, that's for other planes. but you never know. that means you're going to see earnings leverage galore for b.a. the dreamliner looks like a smashing success, especially when you consider all the the naysayers. the airline business has never been this healthy, both domestic

and worldwide, and china is building airports left and right! like there's no tomorrow. this is boeing's time, people. and let's not forget the average aerospace cycle lasts seven years before the profits peak. for the dreamliner, hey, that's five years away. i see the stock going to $170 by year end. nice move from the 130s. number four, very controversial, is caterpillar. i have to think that this is the most hated stock in the dow. guess what? i think this hated stock is going to turn into a beautiful butterfly. caterpillar, butterfly. as i explain in the book, this is exactly the kind of stock to buy when the global economy is picking up speed and this -- and that's happening in the u.s. and china. plus, if caterpillar ever lets go of the incompetent, sorry, had to say it, ceo doug overhelm, i see the stock going to $100 lickety-split. this is a story about super low expectations, they have gotten so low that if china hangs in

there and europe stabilizes and we get construction in this country, i think they'll deliver on the fourth quarter this year and guess what? $110. fifth dow stock, chevron. this is a peripheral play on the oil and gas revolution, a huge theme i talk about in "get rich carefully," but the smaller producers have the most exposure, and therefore more upside hurt by the terrible rail incident. but chevron has been stuck in neutral and it's really become a company that's neither here nor there. i can't see the stock rallying more than five or six bucks. on the other hand, i love love love love breakups, a whole chapter in the new book and if they split out into chemicals, refining and exploration and production, it would take the stock up. next dow name, cisco. i wish the food service sysco were on the dow. i was amazed they finished 2013 in the black. the company has reported weaker

and weaker numbers, quarter after quarter. i see no end in sight. the competitors are cutting to pieces. that said, hope springs eternal. i think the stock can make its way back to $25, where it was before the most recent shortfall, because the comparisons will be easy by year's end. i will say this. the stock could go much higher if the board of directors simply forces the retirement, bumps up ceo chambers to chairman. sadly, i think they're very enamored of this guy. dow stock seven, coca-cola. i think coke has got to do something big. why? because carbonated soft drinks, both diet which i have sworn off for 2014 and regular which i never drink anyway, are declining at an alarming pace. we could start to see the tobaccoization of this industry and that doesn't support the lofty multiple. the paltry yield doesn't do it

for me either. however, a change in management, potential acquisition making them less dependent on soda, i can see them going to $45. however, if warren buffett were to sell some of his stake, it would got to $35. the next one is disney. the great bob iger, he does it carefully. when disney reported the market reacted, and although i thought it was a darn good quarter i said it on this and on "squawk on the street," excellent numbers from espn, decent box office figures and a fabulous theme park business, the market confirmed my view. a dozen point run and why i think disney can keep roaring after the nearly 50% move last year, the star wars franchise is now on the horizon, on the calendar. as we get to the end here, the hype of the new star wars film will be rife and i think they'll get a much higher price to earnings multiple. the earnings won't go down as the interest rates rise. i see it going to $80.

next we have double d -- dupont. we'll find out what a noncommoditized dupont is made of. i was thrilled when i learned the company would be spinning off its ultra commoditized titanium dioxide business, announced on this show. it will give dupont a higher multiple for next year as well as 2014. i think the stock can trade to $80 a share by december. and that would make it one of the best performers in the dow for 2014, thanks to the great work of the ceo, ellen coleman. tenth dow stock, exxon mobil. i can't believe my words, i'm about to be positive. after multiple years of being an oil bank with very little production growth, exxon is hitting pay dirt on its myriad projects and should grow to make the others jealous. envy exxon. it's easy to own because of the oil and gas renaissance and because warren buffett bought a big position and his buys carry

enormous weight even if they're wrong. i see this being bid up exorbitantly. it could go as high as $115. hey, that's a huge move for a $100 stock. that's without oil going much higher than where it is. 2014 is going to be a real good year for stock picking, which is why i'm going through all 30 names of the dow, so you can pick the ones you like. they're almost all looking positive, although not as positive as 2013. stay tuned. i'll give you my next batch of predictions after the break. coming up -- this industrial giant was hit hard in 2008 and the stock is far from the prerecession high. now as global growth returns cramer thinks it can return to its former glory. plus, it's cramer's favorite stock of 2014. find out who, just ahead.

as my new year's present to all of you, tonight i'm giving you my 2014 predictions for all 30 stocks in the dow jones industrial average. i just went through the first ten names. now i have ten more with the final batch coming after the break. remember, we're talking about bottoms up. that's a stock by stock approach

that builds in today's weakness. i have factored it in, because i believe this is becoming a fabulous moment for stock pickers, and you don't want to miss it because we're down a couple percent in the first couple of days of the year. let's start with dow stock number 11, general electric. you know what, i think g.e. is finally ready to roar now that it's shutting down the toxic part of the portfolio and spinning off another noncore piece of business in order to focus on the great industrial company again. the remainder is a solid manufacturer of aerospace parts, locomotives, medical equipment and oil and gas equipment. if g.e. makes a couple more acquisitions in the oil patch, i think it will be an energy and energy saving company. i own it in my charitable trust and i think the stock will climb back to the 40s from the 20s this year, based on solid global economic growth and the removal of the mill stone around

the company's neck that was the finance business. next up, goldman sachs. i think they'll be a beneficiary of the volcker rule. they were the foremost customer centric focused brokerage house. it was about the client. that was the reason they had a premium multiple and not a discounted one as it does now. but it became shackled by the risky transactions that went unrewarded by the market. so i think the fact that volcker takes them off the table is actually a positive. a positive, people. now, look, as a goldman sachs alum, i bet it will boost the stock's multiple dramatically. in fact, i can see them earning $20 this year and trading at say i don't know, let's give it an 11 multiple. i think the stock is going to see the low 200s, maybe 220, 230, whoa. dow stock number 14 is home depot. this finally broke out of the

$80 range at the end of the year, and housing prices are coming back. then we'll start to see a real boom in spending on homes. right now we're still running well below the historical average level of spending on homes as a percentage of gdp. that should step up as unemployment improves. home depot under the terrific ceo frank blake has bought back a ton of stock over the last six years, bringing the share count down from the 2 billion to just 1.4 billion. i checked these numbers three times that will lead to much heftier profits. but they have virtually stopped adding new stores in this country. they can get up to $92. i think it should expand now that the economy is expanding better. then we have a real conundrum, we have ibm. ibm is hit by cloud computing. a big part of the social mobile and cloud trilogy that i highlight in "get rich

carefully." nobody trusts it except for warren buffett. but perhaps ibm can restructure somehow, again. maybe it will be able to take advantage of the global economic expansion, kind of a gdp play. either way, i don't see the stock having a hard time trading to $200 because it will be soon be going up against easy comparisons and buffett will talk about it and people will buy it. yeah. number 15, intel. another one that's being challenged by the new holy trinity of tech. but unlike ibm, i am a real fan of intel. in fact, my charitable trust has been buying it because it's clear the're going the way of the personal computers. cheaper and use up a lot less battery life and they cost much less to me. plus, the company has more new chips out there than i can ever recall in the history of intel. still has a terrific balance sheet and it's shedding weaker divisions. at least, i hope, cutting back on the capital spending. if intel has a downside surprise, i bet the stock

wouldn't go down much at all. if it has upside surprise, $30. then there's j&j. they have been stalled lately because of the rotation that came from stronger economy. but it hasn't made me lose confidence in the famous stock one bit. i think this is a classic example of a company that could benefit from breaking itself up. hence why i devoted an entire chapter in the new book. i beat the ceo will shed j&j's slow growing diagnostic business, take the money, buy back stock and focus on the faster growing pharma franchise. wall street is looking for j&j to earn $5.50 per share. i think that's conservative. especially when you consider the weakened dollar boosting the value of companies overseas. i see earnings closer to six bucks. i'm giving it an 18 multiple. that would take the stock to $108. wow, the profits are brimming here. next up is jpmorgan. i don't think people realize how much earning power they have with the rising rates when it's

not being hectored by the justice department. a lot of people were worried they'd be hurt by the volcker rule, but i think that's short sided. people will once again be able to figure out the bank's normalized earnings stream and they'll pay for more it. plus, they accumulated a ton of market power during the recession. i think 2014 is time to shine. i see it rallying to $75 from the current $58 purchase. i do expect an excellent first quarter. again controversial is mcdonald's. they're getting eating alive by the consumer's embrace of healthy eating and the distrust of food chains. people are fleeing for panera bread and chipotle. i don't want to write it off. if they can put together positive monthly numbers i bet it will go to $110 in a hurry. they can make it to the $105 because the ceo will have been at the helm long enough to

figure out what the heck is wrong and fix it. and then we have merck. it's time to break up. the animal health division should be spun off first. i have a hard time in seeing how they can trade above $55 given the subpar performance. number 20 is microsoft. here's another company that's being squeezed by the new social mobile and cloud imperatives, but if the new ceo breaks microsoft up, into are you listening, new ceo, the internet, utility and the gaming, i think the market will rejoice. this is the only stock where the sum of the parts is worth more than the whole. they can go up on the vision and the execution of a new ceo by announcing the breakup. here's the bottom line as we work through the 30 stocks, you can see even the worst of the bunch should rally. stay tuned, and i'll give you my forecast for the final ten

names after the "lightning round." let's go to dewitt in delaware. >> caller: happy new year, jim. what's your advice on a new company called mcgraw-hill financial? >> i like it very much. it's a terrific buy. i should be featuring it more. a lot of people keep thinking that the past is dogging it. that is untrue. i think it's clear sailing. can i go to ken in new york, please? ken. >> caller: hello, jim. how about a big new year's new york booyah. >> i'm going to have to give you a snowy new york booyah. what's up? >> caller: i want to get your opinion on three quality companies that i've held for a long time, and i want to see what you thought of them, please. >> okay. >> caller: p.h., parker hannefin. boeing and disney. >> oh, boy. three unbelievable companies. this is something that the demons that i have had to deal with in my life. i want to sell some because

they're up so much but they're all quality companies. so you schnitzel. take a little off the table and let the rest run. is one of your new year's resolution to make money for your family? why don't we do it together starting with a hard look at all of the dow names? after the "lightning round" the final ten dow stocks. write them down and of course, stick with cramer. tomorrow, kick off the trading day with "squawk on the street" live from post 9 at the nyse. >> it's why you're a great partner, because we have to balance each other out. >> it all starts at 9:00 a.m. eastern.

>> announcer: lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade. >> it is time. it is time for the lightning round, the first one of 2014. you say the name of the stock. i don't know the calls or the name of the stock ahead of time. i tell you whether to buy or sell. when you hear this sound -- [ buzzer ] -- then the lightning round is over. are you ready, skee-daddy? time for the "lightning round." albert in tennessee. albert! >> caller: booyah. what's going on?

i had a question about leapfrog. >> entertainment. no. i'd rather own hasbro, frankly, even though it's not as educational or entertaining. brian in texas. brian? >> caller: brian from ft. worth. a big booyah to you. >> what's up? >> caller: i wanted to ask you about the company called dominion, the big "d." >> dominion is very, very good. dominion is better because they're the -- they're the natural gas exporter. remember we have way too much natural gas in this country. let's go to gary in delaware. >> caller: how you doing, booyah. >> booyah right back at you. >> caller: i'm a first-time caller. i enjoy the show and the book, too. >> oh, man, thank you very much. it just came out yesterday. >> caller: yeah. i actually just bought it on amazon prime yesterday. very cool. >> thank you.

>> caller: but my question is on the little -- funny little stock which is a non-money making entity, across the biotech and a 3-d printing company. been a spectacular stock in my portfolio last year. i started to buy it in march. human tissue for procedures. >> okay. they don't make a dime. >> right. >> caller: but, you know, initial testing on the technology is -- the stock is on a tear. >> what is the stock? >> caller: organovo. >> i'm not against speculating with that company. you're right, it's on tear. i can make a good case for it. let's go to bob in pennsylvania. bob? >> caller: hey, bobby c. here, booyah, big jim. >> i'm liking that. sounds like philadelphia talking. i'll be there saturday, what's

up? >> caller: gta makes safer glass. >> i know, i like this company. i have to tell you we liked high-max. take a profit there on the trifecta, a great newsletter from the street. whatever. but i think you've got a good one there. i like gt advanced technologies. it is a little speculative but i can make my peace with it. and that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the "lightning round." >> announcer: the lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade.

tonight we're going one by one through the dow industrial index, stock by stock, because i think 2014 is going to be a terrific year for the market. but more importantly for stock picking. why? because of bountiful profits, the mother's milk of higher stock prices. i want to show you why, through i think is rigorous bottoms up analysis. we have gone through the first 20 stocks of the venerable index. let's wrap it up. number 21 is nike. i like to think of nike as a stealth technology play, one of

the masters of innovation i write about in "get rich carefully" and my charitable trust owns it too. the chinese orders weren't that strong, but i bet they will turn on the strength this year. and it will turn because the economy is getting better there. and the u.s. and western europe were very strong and they'll stay that way. i was honestly surprised that china didn't roar, but nike can be a counterintuitive stock. management has a great habit of fixing things quickly. it wouldn't be a stretch to see this stock trade as high as 90. up from $78.80, making it one of the most expensive stocks right now. it's a great growth company. and it will only do better as the year goes on. next up is pfizer. this is a company being challenged by the four horseman of the pharma apocalypse. did you see celgene today? a nice run last year. i think it will tread water in 2014. i see it as being hard pressed to go above $34. look, at the end of the day, i

just see pfizer as one of the bigger blahs of the dow, you hear the dogs of the dow. i don't know, maybe it has something up its sleeve but i don't think so. number 23 is proctor & gamble. i think people will continue to bail on the slower growing p&g in favor of cyclical stocks like the industrials, like at the end of last year. however, i think they would be wrong to sell. i think the ceo will make some big changes in 2014. i think this is why you must own it. frankly the company is too big and too layered. there's still a lot of heavy lifting to do. this is the time to buy proctor when a lot can be done. hence, i think the stock can run to $95 up from $80.54. but i wouldn't be surprised if it went to $78 first. especially if the stocks splits off the slower growing divisions. then there's travelers. it's a terrific insurance company.

it's raising prices, buying back stocks. it does better with higher interest rates. however, they have the same problem in 2014, the other guys. many insurance companies unlike travelers screwed up so badly during the downturn that they have a great deal of upside potentials. that's why i prefer a stock like hartford for my charitable trust over travelers because hartford is still coming back and travelers keeps doing it right. still, travelers remember they invest in yield. i can see the stock go to $100 from $80 to where it is right now. 25 is united health. it seems to have nine lives. here's the health insurance name that was supposed to be get scalded by obamacare, but instead comes out on top. they have a voracious buyback. i think they're in a win-win situation. if obamacare keep hobbling on, they'll be a white knight. and if obamacare falters, they'll win again.

next up, one of my faves, united technologies, a dow stock you should own right now. the last pronouncements which included some reflection on sequester took a lot of risk out of the stock. that's despite the fact that the shares are seeing none of the potential rewards from the brilliant goodrich acquisition, at a time when aerospace is the strongest industry in the world. plus, i see orders for the air conditioning division, thanks to the revival of commercial construction in the united states. however, if they do believe in it and it seems like they started to when the stock finished 2013 amazingly strong, then united technologies will head to $135 from $112 as it did today. that would be a terrific advance that i need you to catch. how about number 27, verizon. i think the new verizon is facing serious competition from revitalized sprint and t-mobile

and at&t that's hanging in. however, we have heard about a potential merger. and if that happens which i don't think it will, but it could happen, i think verizon climbs back. i don't see verizon gaining much more than that, because the company already talked about how additive the vodafone deal is. when they bought the verizon wireless from vodafone. then there's visa. letter "v," you know what? this is maybe one of my absolute favorites in the dow in 2014. why? because people didn't like the last quarter, and they were wrong. i say what's not to like? feels like disney when they didn't like it. this remains a terrific company. just a consistent higher growth, faux financial that the portfolio managers crave. there's a ridiculous disparity between visa and mastercard right now. i'm not sure there should be any discount, frankly. but if you give it the same multiple as mastercard, you end up with a $280 stock. next up, number 29 is walmart.

the most problematic next to pfizer. first, there's a new ceo. you know i hate owning a stock during the ceo's freshman year. next it's getting squeezed by dollar stores, costco, whole foods to kroger even amazon. boy, the frugality theme is big. in short, walmart is the whipping boy of retail. it has too much heft to really disappoint. i wouldn't be surprised if the stock floundered all year. last but not least, 3-m. when will the ceo get his due? he's slowly but surely adding more growth to innovation, giving his company a strong gdp kicker. unless you looked through the annual report or the most recent earnings presentation under the hood, you might not know how much of 3-m is new. it's just been invented, this company is a research and development emerging powerhouse. it's growing at an impressive rate. i think you can trade up to $160

a share from $138 at the moment. it's a big cap international company that happens to be located in the u.s. perfect for portfolio managers who want growth and the dividend and even some excitement. here's the bottom line, you want to know if 2014 will be a good year? 30 stocks in the dow jones industrial average and of them all i only expect wal-mart will actually be down this year. the rest are either drifting slowly higher or they're off to the races. happy new year, everybody. stick with cramer.

if you take a look at what happened, what worked in the fourth quarter, you can see why i wrote right up top in "get rich carefully" that the only economic number worth following is the labor department payroll number that comes out the first friday of every month. it controls the entire quarter's performance. we have purchasing management report, retail sales, new and used home sales. durable goods, inflation, and fed minutes and the index of housing prices. i don't want to say you should throw all of these away. but that they mean nothing. they can impact pricing in bonds and they have to be reported on because they are indeed news. but for the most part, these data points have no lasting impact, almost none whatsoever, at least when compared to the nonfarm payroll report. it was the number that predicted the downturn and led to the

wholesale shift in stock focus, the big rotation in the fourth quarter, which was vital to picking the right stocks that outperformed substantially in the latter half of 2013. i know that might sound unfair to every big number that comes out, but let's look at what happened in the fourth quarter. as soon as the first good payroll numbers showed up, investors started dumping everything soft good. sell sell sell sell. it was incredible. general mills, kellogg, eli lilly, pfizer, coca-cola, j&j. it was almost as if these stocks caught the plague. if you stayed with them or didn't pay back your positions because you wanted to be diversified, i don't blame you one bit. your portfolio simply stopped increasing in value. it's important to recognize that unless there was a new breakthrough drug or fda approval, as was the case with gilead, and the hepatitis c drug, the same underlying performance hit in bio tech,

stopping this once red-hot group in its tracks. now, let's compare that with a couple of industrials. take 3-m. despite some vicious downgrades, including a sale from one important firm, this stock would not quit. buy buy buy. when it was hammered by the downgrade, lots of people wrote off 3-m. but the more excellent growth numbers are showing it, it kept soaring, or consider union pacific. they preannounced the short fall and then it had a sustained advance. it wasn't just the trains though. despite endless and may i saw worthless valuation downgrades of federal express, that stock never quit. but perhaps the most glaring outperformance of all came from the machinery and mining stocks. cummins issued horrendous guidance and then because of robust job growth, the stock roared ahead, rallying above where it was when it

preannounced to the down side. sure, the engine maker stock got hurt today, but i tend to regard that as a buying, not a selling opportunity. caterpillar's sad management couldn't execute cummins own sound world view, so they cut guidance drastically. but the stock rallied anyway. something i point out in "get rich carefully" that means a bottom is in. it's in place. the only news in alcoa will turn out to be an outrageously stupid downgrade from deutsche bank at the bottom, as the stock took off. not because of the inventories or the order books, which don't look so good, but simply because of the economic expansion that the employment number foretold. here the pattern is very clear, people. the labor department nonfarm payroll number is the number. if history is right and the next number is strong then this outperformance will be reinforced regardless of any concerns, and that's what i bank on. and why between now and next friday, when the number comes

out, i would be a buyer, not a seller, of anything that needs a smoke stack to make it all happen. especially many of the stocks that got pummelled today. stay with cramer. get ready to invest in yourself and your future. order jim cramer's new book, "get rich carefully." discover new secrets and skills and get straight talk on making money in a recovering economy. go to jim cramer's getrichcarefull.com and order your copy today. so ally bank has a that won't trap me in a rate. that's correct. cause i'm really nervous about getting trapped. why's that? uh, mark? go get help! i have my reasons. look, you don't have to feel trapped with our raise your rate cd. if our rate on this cd goes up, yours can too. oh that sounds nice.

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welcome to 2014. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to find it for you right here at "mad money." i'm jim cramer. see you tomorrow! lee farkas is a fast talker and master manipulator. >> lee was like a cult leader. he had the charisma of a gatsby. >> narrator: he invents fake loans to make his fortune, and funnels millions to support a fast and fabulous lifestyle. >> lee farkas turned into a very big fish in a very small pond. he had a jet, houses, expensive cars. >> narrator: and he levels anyone who dares to question him. >> being "farkased" -- it was the worst kind of domestic dysfunction.