tv Fast Money CNBC January 3, 2014 5:00pm-5:31pm EST
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fast money coming up in a few seconds. melissa lee, you guys have an exclusive interview, 3-d systems. >> they made a big acquisition today which gets them into the toy entertainment industry. we'll talk to the ceo. kelly, this has been a high flying stock trying to reach the consumer market more, maybe that's something you can do when you're snowed in this weekend. >> i was going to say. tell them we want them to print out some snow shovels. over to you guys. >> thanks a lot. have a great weekend. fast money starts now. live from the nasdaq markets in new york city's times square. here's the lineup. shares of twitter, up again today, gaining 8% so far in 2014. will it be the year of twitter? we break it down with the top analysts who says it's time to buy. it's bitcoin's fifth birthday today. we'll look at all the gifts the digital currency received. plus 3-d systems makes an acquisition taking a step in the entertainment business. we talk to their ceo. our traders, tim seymour, brian
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kelly, josh brown, and guy adami. first, breaking news on liberty media and sirius xm. let's go to julia for the latest. >> proposing making sirius xm holdings a wholly owned subsidiary of liberty. liberty already owns nearly half of sirius xm. this would effectively be taking ownership of the remaining stake. this is if sirius's committee of independent directors and shareholders approve the deal. now, sirius shareholders would be given a new class of liberty stock. this would be a third class in addition to the two current classes of liberty stock. in exchange for their current sirius shares. this deal would value sirius shares at $3.68, a 3% premium to sirius's last trade, that was $3.56, the stock is halted in after hours trading. liberty ceo said in a statement in a press release the combined company will have better access to capital, and all of liberty's
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shareholders, both current and the sirius shareholders will quote, enjoy enhanced liquidity as shareholders of the company. liberty media is hosting a web cast to discuss the proposal which started just a second ago. i'll tune in and i'll be back if there are big headlines. melissa. >> julia, thanks for the update. sirius had a decent run last year, perhaps in anticipation of something like this happening, because this was talked about for quite some time. >> liberty has been involved with the stock for a long time. they saved the company by all accounts, when they needed liquidity. here's what's interesting. this morning a firm called ever core upgraded and slapped a price target on it, which is significantly above the offer. so i don't know how quickly shareholders might want to accept it despite the fact that liberty has been pulling the strings for a while. it's not hard to understand what they see in this business. 65% gross margins, but only 6.5% net profit. which means there's a ton of
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room for improvement. and malone and liberty can clearly help them cut costs, but this seems like it's the beginning of something, rather than the end of something, if you ask me. >> perhaps it can go higher. >> i think it's very likely. >> guy. >> yeah. i think that your risk reward here sets up. first, regis was on this before halloween. >> this was one of his picks. >> you are now regis's friends. >> so there you go. so we have to give him his props. what do you mean i'm his friend? >> you called him an old man the other day. >> the other thing is, basically talking about everything josh said here on the desk. i think it's all about risk reward. i think it sets up pretty easy. i'm not saying it's going to five bucks, but if you get risk down to 3 1/2, that's a good trade. >> the only thing is, liberty media owns 52% of the stock. the chances of shareholders in general voting it out is slim to none. i mean, could it go higher?
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certainly. this is not a normal takeover deal. it's not a normal dare where you have a third party come in bidding up the shares. that's not to say it can't go higher. because it can if they get better liquidity, better financing via being part of liberty media. that might help the stock. >> so if it does go through and maybe it does, relatively quickly, you're going to get shares of liberty's class c equity, which is a $27 billion company. so there is a lot more liquidity. it might be attractive to the other 48% shareholders. it's early. we don't know. >> i would say if you get c shares hold on to them. if you like sirius today, you'll like it better tomorrow. it might not be a third party bidding war. >> i don't think this breaks liberty stock out of what's been a sideways run for nine months, you know, somewhere around 14.50, the stock. this news to me was expected, as far as i can tell. they had control. people expected this to be consummated. not that big a deal. >> all right. let's get to the top story. julia, on that web cast, she'll
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bring us updates. auto sales, ford, gm, toyota, chrysler, all missed december sales expectations. are the disappointing numbers a canary in the coal mine. bk you were concerned earlier, auto sales are highly correlated to the housing market. >> yeah. this is the thing that struck me. it's one month data. when you put it with auto nation and car max having earnings warnings talking about subprime lenders pulling back. then you look at this, new home sales versus u.s. auto sales, seasonally adjusted rates, you can see they are incredibly correlated. this year, car sales have been much faster than home sales, which is what made me more bullish on home -- on the home sector rather than the car sector. if you get the car sector slowing down, that could be a problem for the economy. so connecting a couple dots made me a little concerned. >> december sales are traditionally the strongest month of the year. >> apparently, there was weather effects. and if the show room is not open you can't drive it.
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what that chart shows is housing is leading autos. and that makes sense. we talked ford and gm, the high margin product is the pickup truck, f-150 is what makes ford go. and that to me is i think there's more in the auto trade. if you're selling off autos on today's number, i think you're missing the whole point. these are more efficient companies. we don't need them to hit 16.5 million cars next year. we need them to run operationally efficient. >> let me ask a question. what leads what? because in order to rectify that chart and fix that correlation, either home sales have to go higher or auto sales come down. >> it's really new home sales construction, because exactly what tim said, because of the ford f-150 effect. that does it. it's not even -- that's why i did new home sales not existing home sales, because that makes the difference. >> timmy is talking about the efficiency of the autos, he's right about. they don't need to dot numbers we expect them to do or history says they need to do. i think -- you have to look at
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it in three month buckets to tim's point, maybe december, maybe it was a weather effect. we'll see. but if brian is right on this, it's definitely something to worry -- this is the worst day of gm now in quite some time. so is the trade over? i don't think it's over. but it makes me concerned about some of the downstream plays i talked about, borg warner, delphi automotive. you have to watch it closely going forward. >> it's pretty likely, that we pulled forward some auto sales, that would have happened in 2014 into 2013. auto financing is the new subprime, there's just been a ton of money available for people to both lease and buy. >> it's going to get weaker in 2014? >> i think it's not that important. because the actual driver of these stocks is international growth. no one is looking at america as though it's the 1950s again. but when you look at potential in places like china, southeast asia, you look at africa, that's what is going to drive these stocks over the next five to ten years. so on a short term basis, i think tim is right. i think we're making too much of one month. and you really have to look at
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at least a 90 day average. but longer term, think about what gm and ford could do on the other six continents. >> global motors. >> let's get today's top trades now. yahoo gets a price target hike to 40 bucks -- from 40 to 49 reiterating buyer rating, it's a bullish plan, ali baba's expected ipo a 24% steak in. >> this is simple as some of the parts math. and yahoo keeps getting pulled up. if you value ali baba, if you value yahoo japan you get to a place all these parts not including yahoo's core business add up to 45 bucks a share. you have seven or eight bucks a share. i think this stock has 20% in it. it's dependent on how we go on ali baba, look what's going on with the internet retailers, what these guys did on 12-12-12. china's version of black friday. that's a stock i want to own. >> singles day. >> talk about -- tim talked about it for a long time. we talked about yahoo since it
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was 16, 17. 20% gets you 48. i've been in the 40 to 45 camp. it's clearly much later than it was six months ago. nine months ago. when we talked about it in ernest. but people are warming up to the yahoo story. i think it goes higher. >> speaking of warming up, you were chilly. >> it's cold in here. i mean you could hang me in the studio. >> in the studio. it's extremely cold. >> this is the fashion statement for 2014. >> nat gas dropped. inventory fell a smaller amount than expected. josh loses it. on tap this weekend. here in the studio could be a bullish factor. b.k. >> natural gas trades off weather, next week is supposed to be extremely cold. particularly for people in chicago, milwaukee, that area. and nat gas today had a great
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trading day. the numbers that came out this morning were bearish for natural gas, if you look at ung bounced off about 20ish, your 200 day moving average as well as support area. so i'm long natural gas, i would buy more, if i needed to. >> could this be the year of twitter? the social media giant soaring 8% in the first two trading sessions of 2014. victor anthony follows twitter. he has a buyer rating on the stock. victor, great to have you with us? twitter had been down about 17% in two trading days prior to these two good ones in 2014. in terms of what's driving twitter here, what are your thoughts on the action we're seeing in the name? >> i think it's purely momentum. the stock has benefited from several new ad announcements since the ipo as well as new platform using engagement options. and quite honestly, there aren't negative catalysts, that would take the stock down.
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i think the stock will continue to run its earnings, that may be the negative catalyst for the stock. however, there are bulls who actually think the stock may accelerate the user engagement in the fourth quarter, as well as accelerate advertising. >> so it needs to catch up to tim's point, to some of the lofty valuations, which it could do. the market is giving them a lot of leeway it seems to me at $69 a share. >> i agree. i think it's price to perfection assuming execution like linked in and execution like google, which is unlikely for the stock. this stock in my opinion has clearly gotten ahead of itself. >> victor, what do you think about the shares issue, there is concern versus the shares or the options and the warrants given to employees, people don't know the right share count. i heard 550 million, i heard 700 million shares outstanding, is this something analysts are clear on? >> i have seen that confusion,
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the correct number is 700 million, that includes all of the diluted options and warrants. that's a proper way to do it. >> your price target is $54, below where it is. but you have a buy rating on this. so what's it going to take for you at this point to take a step back and say, you know what, for investors out there it's too highly valued, which you just said. and it's not necessarily a buy right now. >> well, like i said, i think the stock has gotten ahead of itself, it's clearly above roughly 20% ahead of my price target. and it's benefited from momentum. there are guise who value the stock on a two year time frame. and so i have spoken to investors who have actually seen the stock going to 100 over the next two years. and so guys are choosing to own the stock because of that. there's also guys who shorted the stock in the 40s and starting to cover. so you start to see that benefit, the stock is benefiting from that. but i anticipate there is probably a pullback. >> at 70, your official rating
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is buy. if you're sitting with your firm's clients, you're not telling these guys pull the trigger. >> you're saying it's run ahead of itself and it's overvalued. that's the real message from -- that i'm getting. >> the message is this is a great company. i think this is going to -- twitter is a company that will manage to grow significantly over the next several years. it's a new communication platform that will be embedded in all of media and all of social media. i think it's a great company. i think right now, the stock is slightly a bit overvalued in my opinion. >> okay. victor, thank you for your time. thanks for coming by braving the cold. >> thanks very much. >> $54 price target. buy rating. what do you think? >> victor gets a chance to buy it there. i would sell it here. >> i don't own it, it is about momentum and expectations, having said that, i agree with everything he says, this is one of the most important companies right now out there. >> yeah. i am long on the stock not as much as i would like to own. i hope it gets killed when it reports earnings, if it doesn't, i'm still in it. that's the only rational way i
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could make sense of what's happening with this name right now. >> it's been trading well. i think here, you have to take some money off the table. >> hitting a break here, 3-d systems making a big move snapping up a provider of 3-d modeling for the entertainment industry in blockbuster movies like gravity. coming up, an exclusive interview with the ceo. stay tuned.
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another day, another deal for 3-d systems, the printing company announcing it bought gentle giant studios a company which uses 3-d technologies to make everything from toys to movie props, that news helping propel 3-d systems to a new all time high. joining us to discuss the latest buyout is avi reichental, the ceo of 3-d systems. >> good to be here, melissa. >> how does this help you? >> well, i think this is all about becoming a publisher of consumer brands in media and entertainment. and it's about making it safe, powerful and scaleable for intertamts, the toy industry and merchandising to come together.
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think of it as in essence the 3-d equivalent of being a publisher of content in the 3-d universe. >> want to talk about analysts out there that cover the additive printing industry, very excited about what is due to come out. you had a lot of successful product unveilings at the euro conference in december, 12 new products, what can we expect at ces. >> you should expect, melissa, about a dozen completely new products, including some alliances and partnerships, that we will announce, about half a dozen completely new consumer printers, some new physical photography devices. and some killer perceptual app kind of devices, that we're going to bring to get access for the consumer in every way. and the first ever meaningful hosting publishing and production platform for the benefit of brands in entertainment, fashion, and the
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retail space. >> avi, it's josh brown i've been a shareholder a little over a year, so thank you. it seems like you guys continue to execute. 20% of the float of your stock is still short. i know it's been a tough time for the shorts. the case they seem to not be able to let go of is the fact that you make so many of these type of small acquisitions, and i think the concern is they are pointing toward it as the way you are masking a lack of real organic growth. i would love, if you can address that concern, that seems to continue to come up, any time somebody is talking about why they are short. >> it's 50 acquisitions or so since 2009? >> well, i think it's certainly over the acquisitions, it's important to note many of those bear no revenue, we got them primarily for the technology assets. that we have executed extremely well, with these assets to launch completely new revenue opportunities for the company. and that at the same periods, we
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have grown organically by over 30% in our reported periods to date. and expended margins. and i would also add, in many instances, the technology building blocks, that we are picking, we are picking as early mover advantage, years ahead of competitive awakening. at discounts, that then cost premiums to our competitors to match. so i would say, so far, so good on all counts. >> avi, one last question, in the third quarter you broke out consumer business for the first time. it was about 10% of your total revenue. $13.5 million, how do you see that trajectory growing, as a percent of your total over time? because it does seem like you are focusing a lot on the consumer at this point. >> well, melissa, it's important to preface that today, about 90% of our business is industrial in manufacturing. we look at consumer as an upside
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to the business model. and as a long term trajectory over the next few years. and so far, we are in the dress rehearsal period of what we believe will become a significant opportunity for 3-d systems, which is why at ces 2014 we're coming in with a dozen new products. platforms and experiences. we believe that this is a long term opportunity. and we're investing in it in the here and now. >> all right. avi, greats to speak with you. thanks for coming on. i appreciate it. >> thank you. >> the ceo of 3-d systems, we have talked about this company for quite some time. it's the multiple will get some people -- >> that's been the knock against this stock. >> all the time. yes. >> a half ago. you want to get in the way. josh will say the same thing. you can't get in the way. >> the reason why this is commanding an 80 multiple, and it won't always, is because it's so early in what could be such a huge industry. and there are very few publicly
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traded ways to play it. that won't last forever. but as netflix demonstrated, it could last for a decade. >> these guys are doing the same business around the world, it's a global company. give them that. >> coming up next on fast, bitcoins fifth birthday, we're celebrating with the top bitcoin highlights after the break. >> fast money means trading. everybody has to bring their best information each and every night. the entire trading day is the preparation for the show that night. >> it's idea generation, it's all about giving you a framework for how to look at the markets. as the world has changed, our show has evolved. >> i am guy adami, i am fast money. >> i am pete najarian, i am fast money. >> are you fast money? go to the nbc universal store, and order your fast money tee, run with the big dogs. ask your gastroenterologist about humira adalimumab. humira has been proven to work for adults who have tried other medications but still experience
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the symptoms of moderate to severe crohn's disease. in clinical studies, the majority of patients on humira saw significant symptom relief, and many achieved remission. humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. serious, sometimes fatal events, such as infections, lymphoma, or other types of cancer, have happened. blood, liver and nervous system problems, serious allergic reactions, and new or worsening heart failure have occurred. before starting humira, your doctor should test you for tb. ask your doctor if you live in or have been to a region where certain fungal infections are common. tell your doctor if you have had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have symptoms such as fever, fatigue, cough, or sores. you should not start humira if you have any kind of infection. ask your gastroenterologist about humira today. remission is possible.
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no dude, you're on the jumbotron! whoa. ah...yeah, pretty much walked into that one. geico anywhere anytime. just a tap away on the geico app. a very special happy birthday today for bitcoin, the controversial digital currency turns five today. it's been a busy year for bitcoin. in august the texas judge ruled bitcoin is a legally recognized currency, chinese banks ban its exchange. bitcoin went on a roller coaster with value increasing by more
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than 6,000% in 2013. possible party guests at the birthday bash would include the twins to own part of bitcoin and one of the founders, the first person to use the currency paying 10,000 bitcoins to purchase a pizza in 2010. those 10,000 bitcoins today would be worth approximately $8 million. >> that's expensive pizza. >> what kind of cheese was on that? >> it's gambling money, that you have in bitcoin. >> it is a binary trade. it's either going to zero or a gazillion. i do think -- >> it's not going to gazillion. it's a medium of exchange. why would it be a gazillion, number one. number two, has anybody noticed we're recording the value in u.s. dollars. >> think of a taxi license, $1500 when they first came out now a million dollars. it's a license to do business. >> there's only a limited number
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of them. >> it's not going to gazillion. >> final trades, guys. tim seem orr. >> buy platinum sell gold. >> what do i want? bitcoins. >> happy birthday. >> not bitcoins. i like xlf, they will continue to lead. >> bx on that vein. >> see you monday for more fast. options action begins after this break. have a great weekend. ...and the little room above the strip mall off roble avenue. ♪ this magic moment it is the story of where every great idea begins. and of those who believed they had the power to do more. dell is honored to be part of some of the world's great stories. that began much the same way ours did. in a little dorm room -- 2713. ♪ this magic moment ♪ ♪ this magic moment so ally bank really has no hthat's right, no hidden fees.s? it's just that i'm worried about, you know,
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♪ this is options action. tonight, why are these two guys moving to japan? >> i don't even know what you're talking about. >> because it could be home to the next great casino boom. we'll tell you the company ready to cash in. plus, it's the best trade of 2014. >> it's smaller than a bickine each, it's a thong. >> it's not that, alex, it's actually gold. we'll tell you why it's going higher. an emerging threat. >> how dare you talk to me like that? >> we'll tell you why the weakness in emerging markets could ruin the rally at home. the action begins now.
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