it is cold in winter. that's not news. but minus 40 degrees, that is news and it's having a huge impact all over america on business, the economy and travel. hello, everybody. your top story, the weather. breaking records everywhere. it is turning nightmare into nightmare at the nation's airports. it is literally so cold that planes can't fly. jetblue saying it will shut down its new york and boston operations by tonight. tens of thousands of stranded passengers also have the government to blame. we will talk about it. >> there's a lot to talk about. in the meantime, let's go straight to boston's logan airport. another of jetblue's hubs where

peter howell, business editor from new england cable news, joins us live. give us the very latest on the situation there. >> reporter: good afternoon. as you'll see in a moment, definitely lines forming here. jetblue, a major airline at logan airport. about 27% of all passengers from logan do go through jetblue. 50 different destinations they go to and as you can see, lines forming. we already have 22 cancellations this afternoon by jetblue at logan. certainly a number of other airlines are canceling service to other destinations, but nobody doing anything quite like jetblue. we talked with a gentleman who was hoping to get to the bahamas on saturday. he is now looking at maybe thursday before he gets down there. he spent the night in providence, rhode island, hoping to get on another flight. another young lady hoping to get back to denver last thursday who may get out next friday. just one heartbreaking story after another, including a family that's out $13,000 for a timeshare vacation that it looks

like they may if they're lucky get to for about one or two days out of that. you also have to wonder after this 17 hour control-alt-delete jetblue will do with the airline, shutting it down, boston, newark, laguardia, kennedy, from 5:00 p.m. to 10:00 a.m. tomorrow, how many days will it take until they are totally back to normal and get all the stranded passengers, back through the system. >> thank you for that. i will get more on the stock impact on jetblue with an analyst in just a moment. in the meantime, let's get to chicago o'hare, where we find phil lebeau. this is the kind of situation that both airlines and passengers alike dread but from the airlines' point of view, it costs a lot as well, right? >> reporter: well, it will. it's hard to know how much it will cost. clearly tens of millions of dollars. will it be $100 million or $30 million or $60 million, too early to tell at this point. the reason i'm showing you this line back here is because this is the line at american airlines

to rebook your flight. it stretches at least 200 feet down that way. a lot of these people have had their flights canceled two or three times. when you're talking about the situation with jetblue, think about this. already, jetblue has canceled 46% of its flights today. this is not even getting into what's going to be happening tomorrow. jetblue is going to partially be resuming flights out of new york city and boston starting at 10:00 a.m. tomorrow. that's if all things are working in terms of weather, crews, staffing, et cetera. the stock today, jetblue down 4%. it's been moving lower as the day has gone on. as for the rest of the airlines, as you take a look at the airline stocks and what's been happening there, they've canceled more than 3900 flights and they have delayed more than 9200. now, for the most part, the stocks haven't had a whole lot of movement today. they have been fractionally lower, then slightly higher. united and southwest are down more than 1% today. it's too early to know the financial impact, guys, but once they calculate this, then they

will be able to say okay, how much do we need to take off the earnings estimates for the first quarter, if this storm lasts over the next couple of days, and it will be moving east, you can expect some analysts to at least start to bring down their estimates in terms of top line impact and perhaps bottom line impact as well. >> phil, or bring up earnings estimates because if i'm bumped off a jetblue flight, perhaps i shall rebook myself on american, delta or united. >> reporter: i don't think that's going to have a huge impact. here's why. where are you going to find a seat? if you're in new york on a jetblue flight coming to chicago, think there are a lot of seats available on the united flight coming to chicago? probably not. so generally speaking, especially now that we have so many large airlines, you know, there's fewer small players that you can run to and say i need to find a seat, and seats are so limited, it will be harder for airlines to benefit, if you will, when one airline struggles like that. >> well said. thank you very much.

stay warm. i know it's just absolutely unbelievable. let's bring in helene becker. you and i were going back and forth on e-mail today. i don't want to get too wonky into government regulations but you brought up something called far-117. it was rules that literally just went into effect two days ago that it sounds like may actually keep people stranded at airports longer than they would have been. can you in layman's terms explain what this change is and how it may impact our audience? >> the basic rule is pilots have to have nine hours of rest instead of eight hours of rest. they can only be scheduled for 16 hours during the day and 13 hours if they're flying overnight. once they hit their maximum time, they have to stop flying. in the past, they have been able to just determine whether they wanted to finish a trip so if they were in the middle of a

trip, they could continue the trip, but now they can't even start the trip. so what you see happening today, tomorrow, over the weekend, is the effect of far-117 and bad weather. so it's hard to really pull out which -- what's causing all the cancellations. but since we've had bad weather in prior years and we have never had this level of operational shutdown that we're seeing from the airlines, we suspect a lot of it is related to far-117. >> yeah, and you know, you look back at jetblue and specifically february of 2007, when they had what they call the valentine's day massacre where they had to cancel thousands of flights and thousands of people more were stranded and we ended up seeing the founder and ceo lose his job, really because of that. why does this seem so specific to jetblue? is it simply because their hubs are in boston and new york and they don't have a warm place to go? >> remember, they do fort lauderdale as well. but yeah, the predominant level

of their operations is in the northeast. they are probably the single largest carrier that's dependent on northeast operations. so it affects them but it affects united, it affects delta, it affects the industry in general because far-117 affects the industry. >> just very quickly with regard to the stock, phil lebeau a moment ago said it's too early to tell what kind of financial impact there will be on the airlines and whether or not first quarter earnings estimates will have to come down as a result of all these disruptions. can you give us a ballpark estimate for jetblue and potentially other airlines on what that damage may be? >> no. i'm sorry, i cannot. we generally speaking keep some money aside, a couple of cents a share per company in the first quarter to account for bad weather, but given that this is going on now, i think it will be several weeks before the airlines even know what the impact is, and we suspect the first time we are going to get

any indication will be during the fourth quarter earnings release conference calls later this month. >> okay. so you're keeping your price tag of $8, right? >> yes. we have a market perform on the stock and our price target is $8. correct. >> thank you very much. well, temperatures all over america with the exception of like a small sliver of hollywood, apparently, are dangerously low. the weather channel's paul goodloe has been tracking this arctic blast and joins us. i heard it was minus 36 in crane lake, minnesota. >> yeah. actually, that might be the warmest they will be for a little while before we have a slow warming trend later on this week. right now, another warm spot actually is new england. there is still plenty of cold back across western new york but look at the temperatures. 54 in boston, 48 in portland. even new york city coming in at 40. but look what's knocking on the door. teens and single digits and that is going to be also warm compared to what's coming. the front clears out, we cool down across the northeast, cold and even frigid air from the

arctic coming all across the region and staying with us right on through wednesday, then slowly reverse the trend, start warming up as we head towards thursday and friday and yeah, just incredible wind chill as well with this. in fact, right now, 32 over the lower 48 states have some type of wind chill warning or advisory out there, as wind chills will be in the minus 40 to minus 50 range. that also includes areas of southeast, including atlanta. even northern florida will see wind chills below zero as we head towards tomorrow morning. guys? >> paul, thank you very much. appreciate that. now, let's talk more about the economic blast of this storm with another paul, paul walsh. he is a business analyst at the weather channel. it's so cold, my tongue is tied. here's what we were debating. we have these fiery debates that never make it to tv. we were debating before the show how much do people really change their spending habits? the weather, it's nice, it's a story we can all talk about, but

do we actually act and spend differently because of the weather? >> we do. we actually on weather.com, we are doing polling of consumers to ask how the weather's impacted their purchase intent. we did it through the holiday season this year. we found as you would expect that people were purchasing a lot more things that you would need when it's much colder than it was both last year and compared to normal. we saw huge increases in outer wear, we saw increases in home goods that you need to keep warm. so basically that helps to shift the spend away from what might be discretionary into things you actually need when it's cold and it was much colder than last year and is continuing to be much colder than last year. >> okay, paul, thank you very much for the update on that. indeed, the weather has been very nasty out there and it may be impacting the senate as well. it has just convened, expect tod take up a vote on the janet yellen fed chair nomination. let's get to eamon javers. >> there was concern that this cold weather might prevent some senators from getting to

washington for this vote. harry reid speaking on the senate floor just now, said that in fact debate on yellen will begin in the 3:00 hour. they will start talking up a storm over the afternoon hours and then we expect this vote will happen after all in the 5:30 time frame. we expect janet yellen will be confirmed but what you want to watch for here are the no votes for janet yellen, because we could be on the verge of a historic total of no votes. i went ahead earlier today and put together a graph of every single vote for a federal reserve chairman over the course of the past 20 years or so. let me give you just one little slice of it. look at paul voelker's no-votes in 1983 in the teeth of a very tough recession, high interest rates. he got 16 no votes. ben bernanke back in 2010, last time around, got 30 no votes and we expect that janet yellen could hit that threshold or beat it and have the highest level of no votes ever, possibly, this evening. that's going to be some little bit of drama to watch for.

but the overall drama, not so much. we expect janet yellen will be confirmed. >> thank you very much. still ahead, a market discussion that would make charles dickens proud. we tasked two of our greatest market minds to come up with their great expectations. i promise no oliver twists in this discussion. the sharks are coming to cnbc. we will speak with barbara corcoran ahead. plus the funniest video you will see all day. [ male announcer ] this is the story of the little room

over the pizza place on chestnut street the modest first floor bedroom in tallinn, estonia and the southbound bus barreling down i-95. ♪ this magic moment it is the story of where every great idea begins. and of those who believed they had the power to do more. dell is honored to be part of some of the world's great stories. that began much the same way ours did. in a little dorm room -- 2713. ♪ this magic moment ♪

gold got a real drubbing last year down by 28% but look what's been happening gold since the start of this year. it's up about 3% over the past week, moving higher as you can see there today, just a touch. but it is climbing towards a three week high. let's check in on what else is happening in the market. bob pisani at the nyc. unless we turn around on the s&p i believe this would be the third down day in a row which at the start of the year would be the first since 2005, wouldn't it? >> that's right. there's really no big stars other than a few financials that are emerging. started strong on the dow, up 50 points right at the open, then just drooped from there. here's the stars. this is a very intriguing list, because the only thing moving are a small group of big cap, big cap financial stocks. citigroup, goldman, morgan

stanley, jpmorgan, those are the stars. they've had nice gains on the year as well as today. the other group is also in the financials and that's real estate investment trust. these, again, the same story. only the biggest of the big cap names. equity residential, pro logis. again, up very strongly today and have been up also last week in the first two days as well. bottom line here, first two days for the financials, three days looking very good. back to you. >> bob pisani, thank you very much. we need never be ashamed of our tears. that's a classic line from the great book by charles dickens, "great expectations." after many years of a bull market and three days of declines to begin this year, will the year end with joy or tears that we can therefore not be ashamed of? let's bring in jpmorgan's tom lee and david lutz. i have expended all of my dickens quote knowledge. i googled that one, i will be perfectly honest.

do you expect to see a solid 2014 or three down days looking likely right now? is this something maybe wicked which comes our way? >> no, i honestly think we are going to continue to see a solid 2014. let's look at the end of 2013. we had a tremendous amount of momentum coming into the end of 2013. the s&p saw well over 400 stocks in the green for the year. that's fantastic breadth coming into 2014. over the last six times that that's happened since 1980, the following year, so 2014, every year has been positive. all six years, for an average return of about 14.5%. that would make tom lee, who is high on the street right now as far as his s&p forecast, maybe just a little bit too low. there's a lot of wind for the bulls' back right now. >> i believe that tom, you said the s&p has a one in three chance of rising 30% this year. 30%, another 30% on top of last year's? >> that's right.

you know, i think we will be surprised over the next few years how resilient this market's been. we have to remember, we've had -- we are really in the middle of a classic bull market. but over the next few years we think earnings growth can reaccelerate. investment spending picks up. i know we kind of had a rocky start. it's a little disappointing but i think that's what we want. we want to help fuel positive sentiment. >> tom, what do you think the biggest risks are to to 2014? we started to discuss chinese banking regulations and will later in the show. it's obtuse but is it something to really worry about? >> i think generally, disappointing growth is kind of a growth risk because it's been so important as a growth engine for global growth. so if we're having weakness there, i think investors will be very concerned. i think it will ultimately be unimportant to how u.s. stocks do, because not only is u.s. recovering but i think europe is

improving. i think that's one risk. i think the other is that we could grow too quickly because it's going to bring back fears about inflation and maybe accelerated fed tightening and i think that could be a head wind -- >> is there really such a thing as growing too quickly? >> i mean, there is definitely too much of a good thing. i think stocks really do like to be navigating that middle of the road, which is growth that's slow enough to kind of prevent monetary intervention and not too fast to see tightening and inflation. there is a middle road but it's a pretty wide band. it would have to be growth well above 4%. >> what about the risk of rising too quickly? dave, i'm talking about rates and everybody's concern about whether or not the stock market and even the bond market would be able to handle the pace of u.s. rate rises that we will see, or do you think that will be possible? >> i think it's not only possible, it's well probable. "wall street journal" had a great article today talking about the last 50 years when rates increased or the years over the last 50 when rates

increased. you know what, the return for equities was 8% for the big caps, 13% for the small caps. so a market can easily rally as rates are increasing, especially since we're in a low inflation environment. right now, the market's valuation is probably at about 15 times earnings and tom lee can speak to this better than i could. in periods of low inflation, market multiples have been closer to 18 to 20 times. that would mean if the market expands to 19 times earnings, the s&p is well over 2200 coming into the end of the year. the last couple of days that we've been seeing this downdraft in the market, you know what, this is just a little bit of profit taking. it's a little bit of rotation we're seeing. something for everybody to be paying attention to. earnings kicks off on thursday with alcoa and there has been a lot of articles since 2009, the bulk of the s&p's earnings have come during earnings season and the bar has been set very, very low. >> we need revenue growth. you are both on the record. you are seeing strong double digit gains, one in three chance

of 30% rise. we will see. still ahead, the top three best bets abroad in the new year. before that, we are diving right into the shark tank with the legendary barbara corcoran. then stock recommendations you may have missed, including a stock one analyst thinks will go up another 75%. that name ahead. wave again, barbara. [ male announcer ] start the engine... and shift through all eight speeds of a transmission connected to more standard horsepower

than its german competitors. and that is the moment that driving the lexus gs will shift your perception. this is the pursuit of perfection. welcome back. how is everything? there's nothing like being your own boss! and my customers are really liking your flat rate shipping. fedex one rate. really makes my life easier. maybe a promotion is in order. good news. i got a new title.

and a raise? management couldn't make that happen. [ male announcer ] introducing fedex one rate. simple, flat rate shipping with the reliability of fedex. aflac! got 'em. ♪ yeah, he's clean, boss. now listen to me, duck. i have an associate that met with, uh, an unfortunate accident. while he's been incapacitated, somebody's been paying him cash. now, is this your doing? aflac? now, if i met with some such accident, would aflac pay me? ♪ nice. this is your stop. [ male announcer ] find out what aflac can do for you and your family... aflac? [ male announcer ] ...at aflac.com. at afraud could meanuld blower credit scores. for you and your family... aflac? and higher interest rates when you apply for a credit card. it's a problem waiting to happen. check your credit score, check your credit report at experian.com.

we have been talking about jetblue today and the impact on the stock. it is currently down but coming up on "fast money" the ceo will be talking about it at 5:00 p.m. eastern. >> can i ask you a quick question? because everybody is slamming jetblue. here's something somebody brought up. isn't jetblue, shouldn't they be commended for this? they have problems. we know that in terms of the weather. that's not their fault. faa regulations, not their fault. they are telling people you're not going to fly today, stay home, have a fire, tuck into some hot cocoa. >> it's a preemptive move. >> you're not at the airport where phil is with 6,000 people in line waiting to switch. >> that's a good point, actually. by getting out ahead of the problem and saying guys, don't

even bother. maybe that's a good thing rather than sitting out there and sleeping overnight in the airport. >> you no doubt know barbara corcoran's name either from the new york real estate empire she founded, her books on business savvy or from "shark tank" the show about making it as an entrepreneur she hosts with a number of other multi-millionaire and billionaires. "shark tank" is starting at 8:00 p.m. eastern tomorrow night so why not bring her in herself. barbara, we can talk about the show. it's a big hit. launches on cnbc tomorrow night. i want to ask you as a business entrepreneur and really a branding expert, what do you think of jetblue's preemptive move? >> i love it. i love it. because you know why, it's honest. in the long term, what people trust are people they trust which are honest people. i think jetblue has gone up a notch and i'm traveling on jetblue in two hours. i hope to god they don't tell me to stay home. >> barbara, with regard to "shark tank," what are the three biggest mistakes that people

make when they come on the show and they pitch their product or their whatever to you? >> mistakes, yeah. well, everybody has a pet peeve. all the sharks are different. if you're asking my opinion, i can't stand a guy or a gal who talks fancy. the minute they start throwing all those harvard mba type words around, i know i will lose my money. i'm out of there. that's number one. a pet peeve but a valid one because i always lose my money with fancy people, never with plain people. you got to be able to talk short, sweet and clear. next, i would say no energy. a guy can be standing there talking about what he's going to do but if he doesn't have the energy that goes with it, forget about it. he's not going to climb that mountain, get to the other side. that would be number two. and number three, i would have to say people who don't practice. the best entrepreneurs practice and practice every answer a million times so they look smooth as could be. you want to know, i would say two-thirds of the people we see on "shark tank" haven't bothered to practice their answers. that's amazing to me.

>> what you're saying is, i don't want to bring up bad memories because we are just starting the year, you were burned by that cowboy that wanted to lose 50 pounds and took 50 grand of your money. he was slick. for a cowboy. >> yeah, but he was a smart guy, because part of that deal i made was i said hey, you know what, you've got to lose 50 pounds if you want my $50,000. he not only lost the 50 pounds, he sent me quasi-nude photos of himself weekly showing me the weight loss with the tape measure on his gut. the minute he got my $50,000, he put the 50 pounds right back on. i'm not so smart. >> are you amazed by how many people actually have the guts to get out there and be an entrepreneur? >> so to speak. >> pun intended. when you consider, what, 90% or so of entrepreneurs fail in their first year. >> the odds are stacked against them. another pun. they still do it. >> yeah, they still do it. let me tell you, i think just about everybody out there really wants to work for themselves. there are exceptions but almost everybody doesn't really like their boss because they want to be the boss.

that's the main lure that brings people out into their own business. but you want to know what you need? you either need a lot of courage, because of course, the odds are stacked against you, or you need to be too stupid to know any better and just go out and do it. one or the other, they both work. >> which one works better, barbara? >> actually -- >> it's hard. except for our bosses at cnbc and comcast, they make everything easy. if you're a go-getter, you probably think i will get something on my own but it's tough out there. >> you want to know something, youth is a wonderful calling card. most of my most successful entrepreneurs that i work with today and there are 14, the most successful ones are all young. you know what they have, they have never fallen. they don't know what it feels like to fall on your head. so that's a case of too stupid to know any better but there is something about being young that you just jump off the board and you don't really know what a belly flop feels like because you have never hit. >> you know what i love about americans? they get right back up again. >> the good ones. i got a few entrepreneurs that have taken my money down with them. that's not always the case. >> we are looking forward to the

premi premiere of "shark tank." catch the show right here on cnbc tuesdays, 8:00 p.m. starting tomorrow. >> i know you're pining for that cowboy's cell phone number. still ahead, if you saw "the wolf of wall street" you know this stock. it is up more than 2,000% since going public. it was a name -- it's a true story mentioned in the movie. later on, something fishy going on with japan's economy. we will explain when we return. [ male announcer ] this is betsy. her long day of pick ups and drop offs begins with arthritis pain... and a choice. take up to 6 tylenol in a day or just 2 aleve for all day relief. all aboard. ♪ i worked a patrol unit for 17 years in the city of baltimore. when i first started experiencing the pain, it's, it's hard to describe because you have a numbness...

but yet you have the pain like thousands of needles sticking in your foot. it was progressively getting worse, and at that point i knew i had to do something. when i went back to my healthcare professional... that's when she suggested the lyrica. once i started taking the lyrica, the pain started subsiding. [ male announcer ] it's known that diabetes damages nerves. lyrica is fda approved to treat diabetic nerve pain. lyrica is not for everyone. it may cause serious allergic reactions or suicidal thoughts or actions. tell your doctor right away if you have these, new, or worsening depression, or unusual changes in mood or behavior. or swelling, trouble breathing, rash, hives, blisters, changes in eyesight including blurry vision, muscle pain with fever, tired feeling, or skin sores from diabetes. common side effects are dizziness, sleepiness, weight gain and swelling of hands, legs and feet. don't drink alcohol while taking lyrica. don't drive or use machinery until you know how lyrica affects you. those who have had a drug or alcohol problem may be more likely to misuse lyrica. ask your doctor about lyrica today. it's specific treatment for diabetic nerve pain.

to hear more of terry's story, visit lyrica.com.

welcome back. "street signs" time. stock number one, the red-hot stock solar city getting an upgrade at goldman sachs. >> hotter today, up another 8% to 64.22. they upped it to a buy from a neutral and added it to their conviction buy list. target goes to 80 from 65. that is 25% above the current price. >> the stocks up over the past year, merely 350%. incredible hot sector. pandora is also higher after reporting some impressive numbers in audience metrics. >> i have been wrong, wrong, wrong about pandora. the stock up 16% today. listener hours increased 13% year over year in the month of

december. u.s. radio listening grew over 7.5%. they got in-car advertising solutions. i thought itunes radio was really going to take a dent out of pandora. doesn't look like it is. good for them. >> we also have bb & t, a strong buy at raymond james. >> stock up 1%. the rating was outperformed. target increased to 43 from 38. that's a 15% premium to the current stock price. stock's already had a decent run up 24% last year and a new 52 week high for bb & t. >> stock's up 5.5% over 6.66. supply chain management software company upgraded from a market perform. price target, 139.50. about $14, upside seen by the analysts. this stock has been red-hot. more than doubled in the past year. >> today's under the radar pick because we always have one, we have mentioned this on "street signs" before. it is a drug discovery company.

>> probably the hardest company to spell in the united states. analysts of piperjaffrey upgrading this from overweight to neutral. goes from 4.50 to $11. 75% more than the current price. the stock was already above their previous target so take it with a grain of salt. this was also an $11 stock years ago so they're really saying it's going to get back -- you don't see 75% price target. i would like to get that analyst on to dig in a little more on that call. meantime, the wolf of wall street is already one of the most talked-about movies of the year. one of the company's main stocks involved in that is the popular shoe retailer, steve madden. in fact, the real firm profiled in the movie actually took steve madden public because the guy steve madden was the friends of one of the executives. did you find all that out? either way, steve madden himself, by the way, went to jail. since the ipo the steve madden stock has actually done pretty

doggone well, especially the last couple years. is this a stock worth owning? wolf of wall street or not, let's talk numbers on the technicals. jeff tomasullo, mark lichtenfeld. forget the "wolf of wall street" stuff. kind of a funny aside because the stock has done so well. what do you see technically? >> last year was up 30% but there is some concern. there is that long term trend line that is looking bad today, actually breaking below that line. that's my concern. if we get a close below that trend line, i would be looking at the 34 level. if we close below 34, you want to get out of this stock. the trend i think is broken. >> what about you, mark? you see any reason to own this stock? >> you know, you mentioned forget "the wolf of wall street" stuff but i really can't. the fundamentals are absolutely fine, the cash flow is going the right direction, sales, earnings. healthy balance sheet. everything looks fine. but this is a company that hired

back steve madden and the man has a right to work and any company has a right to hire him. doesn't mean i have to invest my money in a company that will hire a convicted stock manipulator in a prominent position, the head of design, the largest shareholder. there are lots of companies out there with good solid fundamentals and decent charts that don't have a convicted felon in a prominent position. i would not own this stock. >> i have to say, they do make nice shoes. i will say that from a product perspective as someone who wears steve madden shoes. >> i hear marc's point, basically saying just not worth the money because of that. thank you guys very much for joining us. appreciate it. interesting name there. be sure to check out the online edition of "talking numbers." go to yahoo! finance, look for cnbc on the left-hand side, click on it, look for talking numbers, look for me. >> and me sometimes, too. >> that is true. still ahead, we are digging in on wall street's most teflon stock. later, tim seymour's three

best emerging market investment ideas right now. but first, bill and 30 under 30 forbes' kelly evans. >> sorry i took your spot. thanks, guys. >> i'm waiting for that 60 under 60 thing to happen. liberty media is offering to buy sirius xm radio for $3.68. the stock's already above that price. we will hear from somebody who says this deal is bad for sirius shareholders. as earnings season gets set to kick off with alcoa reporting thursday, find out whether you should believe the earnings warnings hitting wall street or whether companies are intentionally setting the bar pretty low. and pot profits. the ceo of marijuana dispensing machine operator med-box who i'm thinking is very popular at his college reunions, he weighs in on the trend of marijuana legalization around the country. all that and more coming up at the closing bell, top of the hour. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 there are trading opportunities

tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 just waiting to be found. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 at schwab, we're here to help tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 bring what inspires you tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 out there... in here. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 out there, tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 there are stocks on the move. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 in here, streetsmart edge has tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 chart pattern recognition tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 which shows you which ones are bullish or bearish. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 now, earn 300 commission-free online trades. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 call 1-888-648-6021 tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 or go to schwab.com/trading to learn how. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 our trading specialists can tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 help you set up your platform. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 because when your tools look the way you want tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 and work the way you think, you can trade at your best. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 get it all with no trade minimum. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 and only $8.95 a trade. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 open an account and earn 300 commission-free online trades. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 call 1-888-648-6021 to learn more. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 so you can take charge tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 of your trading.

mine was earned orbiting the moon in 1971. afghanistan, in 2009. on the u.s.s. saratoga in 1982. [ male announcer ] once it's earned, usaa auto insurance is often handed down from generation to generation. because it offers a superior level of protection. and because usaa's commitment to serve current and former military members and their families is without equal. begin your legacy. get an auto insurance quote.

usaa. we know what it means to serve. so i can reach ally bank 24/7, but there ar24/7.branches? i'm sorry, i'm just really reluctant to try new things. really? what's wrong with trying new things? look! mommy's new vacuum! (cat screech) you feel that in your muscles? i do... drink water. it's a long story. well, not having branches let's us give you great rates and service. i'd like that. a new way to bank. a better way to save. ally bank. your money needs an ally. jpmorgan chase is on the verge of putting yet another one of its many regulatory problems

behind it. the long-running investigation into the bank's alleged role in the bernie madoff ponzi scheme. senior correspondent scott cohen is here with the latest. i guess new year, another big settlement with federal regulators. >> they're ticking these off left and right. things could change for reasons as basic as the weather, we should point out but i'm told we can get an announcement as soon as tomorrow of this $2 billion deal that the bank clearly hopes will go a long way toward removing a big black eye. jpmorgan chase of course was bernie madoff's primary banker for more than 20 years. indeed, all that investor money, close to $20 billion, went into a single chase account. u.s. banking laws require banks to know their customers, particularly a major depositor like bernie madoff, and to report suspicious activity. there is plenty of evidence some at the bank did have suspicion. for example, an e-mail from john hogan, then chief risk officer, who says he was just told in this e-mail the head of fixed income at the time, that there is a well-known cloud over the

head of madoff and his returns are speculated to be part of a ponzi scheme. he adds i think we owe it to ourselves to investigate further. hogan went on sabbatical last year. zames is chief operating officer. that e-mail is dated june 15th, 2007, a year and a half before the scheme collapsed. it came out in a lawsuit against the bank by the trustee. it's not clear how much the bank did to actually investigate further, as hogan suggested. officially, jpmorgan still says its employees acted in good faith. the tune could change a bit as soon as tomorrow. the settlement under discussion includes a deferred prosecution agreement, requiring the bank to adopt reforms to avoid criminal charges. but as is so often the case these days, it does not appear at least for now that any individuals will be accused of doing wrong. we are told basically it will involve lax controls, that's clear, and not paying attention to the warning signs. we'll see how far they go. it looks like as soon as tomorrow -- >> i have a riddle.

what is the single most secure job in the world? lawyers at jpmorgan. thanks very much. despite lawsuit after lawsuit, jpmorgan's stock keeps going up. some 14% over the past two months and more than three-quarters of analysts have a buy on it. let's talk about it. marty mosby and paul miller join us. paul, you're in the minority. you got a market perform and a target that's below where jpmorgan's stock is. how come? >> we think jpmorgan is too much of a black box and that it's still just too big to really show the returns that they should get. i'm not saying jpmorgan's not a good company but a lot of their earnings or the trading revenues, investment banking revenue, not a lot of recurring revenues like a company like wells fargo has. i do get criticism from my clients saying it's trading at a very low multiple relative to everybody else but given its

earnings volatility, we believe that nine, ten times number is the right number for jpmorgan. that's why we have a market perform on it. the legal troubles aside, you're right, it's -- >> paul, you make some good points there. marty, why are you confident enough to have a buy rating on the stock? >> well, what we're looking at is that the overhang issues are being resolved. as that's happening, we've had a buy rating on it as it traded down to only 20% premium to tangible value. now it's moving more towards what we think it should be trading at, around 50%. yet we still have 10% growth, they could raise the dividend to 30% of their earnings power, which would get the dividend yield back up above 3%. so we think there's a little more to the story of this recovery as we move into 2014. >> theoretically, we can go into all the other stuff but theoretically, a bank's job is to lend money, right, and then take in more in interest repayment than it lends out.

that's a core bank job. we call it net interest margin, one of the big things that paul brings up, one of his notes is that there's a question about whether or not they can continue this level of net interest margin and thus profitability. marty, what are your thoughts? >> what we're seeing is the long end of the curve moving higher. as the long end's moving higher, it gives these banks ability to move out and get better yields in their strategic assets. so the steeper yield curve will help stabilize the net interest margin even though short term rates have stayed low for at least another year or two. >> if you're not particularly bullish on jpmorgan, is there another in the sector that you prefer? >> you know, we can stay with the quality names, wells fargo, usb but marty brings up we do have a higher yield curve, higher spread, but banks aren't just getting any loans to benefit from that. so until we see real loan growth, i think a lot of these

earnings will just be flat. the earnings growth you're seeing is coming from cost cutting, not from growing the balance sheet. growing the balance sheet is what's going to get people excited in the long term. i just don't think jpmorgan or any of these companies will live up to its expectations of higher interest rates. >> we have to watch for the earnings from jpmorgan chase on january 14th. gentlemen, thank you very much for joining us. up next, perhaps why there is something fishy and maybe good or bad going on with japan's economy. plus depending on your personality and sense of humor, it's either the creepiest or the funniest video you will see all day. be a victim of fraud. fraud could mean lower credit scores and higher interest rates when you apply for a credit card. it's a problem waiting to happen. check your credit score, check your credit report at experian.com. over the pizza place on chestnut street the modest first floor bedroom in tallinn, estonia and the southbound bus barreling down i-95.

♪ this magic moment it is the story of where every great idea begins. and of those who believed they had the power to do more. dell is honored to be part of some of the world's great stories. that began much the same way ours did. in a little dorm room -- 2713. ♪ this magic moment ♪ at afraud could meanuld blower credit scores. and higher interest rates when you apply for a credit card.

it's a problem waiting to happen. check your credit score, check your credit report at experian.com.

we told you earlier that gold had been rallying for the past five days. crude is now down for the fifth straight day, settling at a one-month low, below the 94 mark. record low temperatures across the nation are really taking a toll at the pump. let's get to sharon epperson for today's pump patrol. >> reporter: as record low temperatures hit the middle of the country in michigan to montana, gasoline prices are starting to climb, or at least keep steady. the national average for retail gasoline is $3.32 a gallon.

that's up about a penny from a week ago, according to aaa. at the start of 2014, we are seeing some gas prices start to rise. they are certainly not going down. this is where we normally show you prices below $3 a gallon for the statewide average but there are no states that make that mark today. montana has the lowest statewide average at $3.01 a gallon. montana has the lowest gasoline prices in the nation right now because of the cheap crude that the refineries there are using. the heavy canadian crude from the oil sands. cheaper crude, booming refineries and lower gasoline taxes are also helping prices in oklahoma, where you will find the cheapest gas in the nation today. it cost just $2.79 to fill up at a station in norman, oklahoma. that's today's pump patrol. back to you. the most expensive fish, blue fin tuna sold at the first fish auction of the new year in

tokyo for i think it was $700,000. something like that. so you have a giant expensive bluefin tuna selling for more than expected. i know you lived in tokyo. as you see the fish be marched by, is that a fish you would pay $700,000 for? >> absolutely not. japan eats about 80% of all the blue fin caught around the world. i know there are some people who feel perhaps the blue fin should be allowed to just rest in peace before they get completely fished out but nonetheless, i think this is just a fraction of last year -- >> do you like extra tobiko? >> absolutely. china rolling out new rules to try to contain some of the risks but michelle caruso-cabrera, are they enough? >> china desperately needs reform. i would call them first you have to admit you have a problem. china has basically admitted it has a problem. two things they have done.

first, they have come out with regulations related to their shadow banking system. remember they have fixed interest rates, they don't let market -- credit is not allocated by the market, it's allocated gby the government. as a result they have a lot of distortions there. they put out some regulations. they haven't been very transparent about it. reuters and ft managed to get copies. that's how we know about them. we're told that eventually that will be fixed. also, the other reform they announced -- reform too strong a word. local governments are going to be allowed to roll over debt. this is a big deal because we discovered last week local governments in china had increased their borrowing by 70% in three years to $3 trillion, 40% of that was supposed to roll over in the next year and they were prohibited from doing so. now the government has said okay, you can issue bonds but all that is is really extend and protect. they spent a lot of money building a lot of stuff they thought would pay them back

through infrastructure projects. guess what, it hasn't. they have to figure something out. >> 2014 is the year to watch in terms of implementation of a lot of market based reforms. i know you follow this closely. i do believe personally there will be a lot of short term pain but hopefully long term gain. if they go far enough. >> yes. i think you are absolutely right. 2014 is absolutely do or die. will you finally let interest rates float. if they don't, you live in china, the money you can get from putting your money in a savings deposit is below the rate of inflation. that means you are losing money every day. so you're desperate for yield so you put your money in junk and in ponzi schemes and all kinds of stuff. they have to fix that. plus if you're a good party that you deserve money to be lent to you for a business, you're not getting it right now. it's a mess. >> we have to watch for reforms. currency reforms will be very important.

from the u.s.'s has an undervalued currency -- truly globally competitive. you have global steel plants, auto manufacturing, auto parts that come up to the united states. so a big industrial play, a way to play effectively in the u.s. we call mexico, southern texas. i think the eww is a great place to be. finally -- >> first off, tim -- >> take a breath. >> relax. here is the thing, tim, you're obviously a handsome and intelligent man. you like mexico. it's my favorite developing market of the year this year.

japan was last year. go more to the mexican story but talk about the risk as well. we can't just sit here and pat each other on the back. what are the problems that -- i know you have a second biggest oil field in the world which is in decline. >> very much so. >> you know the peso has been stable. what are the risks? >> we're not talking about a country that's relying upon the energy sector even more even though restructuring has showed you you have a government that is willing to tackle labor issues, structural political blockades within their own economy. so ultimately mexico is going to be most vulnerable to one major capital flow shifts in emerging but also the united states economy. if you think the united states industrial growth is going to slow down markedly, i think you want to be careful on mexico. if you want a country where you are exposed to a very significant consumer consumption story but also have the industrial growth, i think mexico is a great way to play it. on valuation relative to itself, mexico is trading somewhere around 14, 15 times. not expensive and relative to emerging, i think i'd rather be

in countries that are a little bit more expensive. deep value is not working. >> running out of time, tim, i'm just going to mention your third idea is playing emerge market consumption growth via some companies like the big global plays, nike for example,. great stuff as always. coming up next. mother's, teen boys, and a song about sex. who that was a good idea? a new commercial that has a lot of people scratching their heads and others saying that's the most brilliant thing they've ever seen. fedex one rate. really makes my life easier. maybe a promotion is in order. good news. i got a new title. and a raise? management couldn't make that happen. [ male announcer ] introducing fedex one rate. simple, flat rate shipping with the reliability of fedex.

if you have a business idea, we have a personalized legal solution that's right for you. with easy step-by-step guidance, we're here to help you turn your dream into a reality. start your business today with legalzoom. ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats.

[ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box. ♪ all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. ♪ the day building a play set begins with a surprise twinge of back pain... and a choice. take up to 4 advil in a day or 2 aleve for all day relief. [ male announcer ] that's handy. ♪

i think this is called mom's song. it's wildly popular on the internet. the moms are singing sadly about their sons getting older. >> awesome. >> thanks for watching "street signs," everybody. and welcome to the "the closing bell" on this monday. i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. where the market is looking for direction on this, the third trading day of the year. >> it's putting it kindly. i'm bill griffeth. the day started out to promising. the dow was up 60 points on the open this morning. some of the economic data did not come out as expected. those service sector was a little weak at that point and i would point out it's too bad rick santelli is not with us today, that the bond market