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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  January 8, 2014 5:00pm-6:01pm EST

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a lot in store for the next couple trading days. a special edition of "fast money" coming up. is melissa lee joining us? no. i don't know. melissa lee, "fast money." >> they're so busy with the anniversary. >> one person who won't be on "fast money." >> she will be watching. the special edition begins right now. the nasdaq markets in new york city's times square. >> seven years of "fast money." >> it's beautiful. >> seven years of investing. >> seven. >> and before twitter went mainstream. text us at 62288, enter the word fast and your message. and myspace was still cool. >> are you ready to update your myspace page? >> through the worst of times. >> this was a difficult week. >> and the best of times.
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>> everything to be thrown at this market it shrugged off. >> i think global growth is what this is all about. >> tonight, the lucky 7 trades for your portfolio. >> number seven. that's my lucky number. >> and the seven deadly trades to avoid. >> seven deadly sins, captain. >> "fast money" starts now. >> welcome to a very special edition of "fast money." tonight, we are celebrating our seventh anniversary on the air. we've got some of our original traders tonight, in their original seats. the ambassador, the chairwoman, the negotiator, and the bit boss. i'm the emissary. we'll have surprise guests coming up. and regis philbin has an anniversary message for us. he's out of micron. but what is he buy right now? the markets very different since "fast money" started. we've been through the financial crisis, lehman brothers and bear stearns no longer exists.
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general motors has been through bankruptcy and back up again. the nasdaq is up 70%. i turn it over to guy adami. one of the last original traders from that first broadcast to be here on this desk. >> what we set out to do way back when, what do traders do when the trading day is over? what do they talk about? and we try to level the playing field for folks. and i think in a sense we did it. we were the beneficiary of crazy times. and the markets were dicey. that's where we got our sea legs. it's been a great show. thanks to the folks at home for watching. >> there's some lessons we picked up that we tried to educate our viewers on. >> thanks for reminding me of some of those. for me, one of the black swan idea. the absolute worst underperformance month we ever had was september of 2008, when seemingly, out of nowhere, they banned the short selling of financials. if you had a portfolio that
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included short financials, stocks opened the next morning. many 100%. that's an unbelievably painful thing to endure. especially if you think you're going to be right. you can't even play. you don't know what the rules of the game are. that was a very expensive -- >> the impossible became possible. >> if that was possible -- right. if they can ban additional short selling, it's not a big leap to say, you cannot be short at all. right. >> well, so, kind of related to that, we realized that markets stopped panicking when governments and policymakers start panicking. and the central bank policy, whether it has put a fix on things can provide a backstop that i think caught a lot of people off guard. i think august of 2008, which was our worst month ever. where you can overtrade this market in a time of crisis. and lessons as a fund manager learned over five or six years, include not overtrading at times when correlations go to one. even if your mandate is risk
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management. hopefully that's a lesson for people watching at home. there's been times when it looked like the bottom was falling out of this market. and if you owned very good stocks at decent valuations and you haven't overextended yourself from a credit perspective, you have to stick to that. >> and, pete, the objections market nascent back then. >> we start to see more folks use the derivative world. it's warren buffett, the rest of the world has caught on. and it's accelerated. you look at the volumes in 2007, to where we trade over 16 million, 17 million contracts per day. the options world has been a huge beneficiary. and part of the reason for that is, the financial crisis took away a lot of the leverage in the markets. the options give you an opportunity, not just in speculation, but in protection and to be able to put yourself into positions now where you have a risk/reward that you understand. if things go south, you know what you can lose. it's what you put in. if things do well, you can have
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extraordinary returns. if you look at those folks that are hitting those extraordinary returns, it's those involved in the derivatives market. i'm glad we're a show that started highlighting it. >> today, of course, also marks the fifth day of trading in 2014. and carter werth gave us a school on the january barometer. listen. >> the first few days determine so much of the probabilities of the year. as january goes, so goes the market. as the first five days of january goes, so goes january. >> the first five days are over. and the s&p and the dow are down. so far. what does this mean for the rest of 2014? carter's back with the breakdown at the smartboard. carter? >> thank you, melissa. it's an important thing the m sop of the statistics, while they seem too simple to be true, have played out over history. let's look at them again and talk about what it implies. here we have it. if you have an up first five
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days of the year, january is up 76% of the time. that is a very big percentage. but here, where it gets better. if then, you have an up january, if up in the month of january, the full year is up 82% of the time. these are very heavily skewed numbers. and this data goes back to 1927, when data for the s&p is really quite good. the issue for this year is, let's look at this year. we completed the fifth day of the year. we're down, as of now, half a perce percent. but it is down. that's not happened since '08. the last five years we've been up in january. what does it imply? is a weak first part of the year predictive of weakness in the rest of the year? here's the stats on that. if you look at rest of the year, what i have is february to december performance. regardless of what happens in terms of how much you're down in january, to not cannibalize the rest of the year. if you have a january that is
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up, as we did last year, the percent return for the year on average is 8.5%. that gives you above-average returns as compared to markets going back over time. by distinction, if january is down, and we still are to determine that, look at what happens to the rest of year, february to december return. it declines to only -- still up. but only 1.6%. well below historical averages. basically, there is a lot to say. and it happens in other endeavors. if it's a sport season or a political campaign. if it start out poorly, it hurts you. and most often it is a bad harbinger of things to come. >> we're down just modestly for the first five days of january. do you have any kind of data about down a percentage like that. what is the average annual return for a year that begins like that? do you have brackets of performance for the first five days of january?
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>> right. what happens. let's talk about all januaries. markets are biased the upside over time. if you look at all januaries, unconditionally and markets in general, markets up 60% to 65% of the time, in any given month. if you have a negative january, which is very rare, that's only one-third of the time. if the first five days are neg, the probability of january being negative jumped up to almost 60% of the time. this is very valid. you could say, how can these stats matter? they're only -- you're talking about 80 years. you do fda trials for a drug you do 10,000 inputs. you can make that case that it's not enough data. we think it's good data. >> carter, thanks for stopping by. >> carter was around in the '06 days when we were beta testing this thing. and i think he makes a good point. i'm not of the belief that we're at a significant drop. but i think we have to get down
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to 1750 or so in the s&p. the healthiest thing for the market will be to test the levels we saw a couple of months ago. >> let's get to a big story of the day. that was twitter. another down day. a slew of down grades on the stock from cantor fitzgerald this morning. cutting to a sell. and twitter is one of tim seymour's, the ambassador's, special trades for our anniversary show. >> what are the deadly sins? three of them are gluttony, lust and greed. that's what we have with twitter when you look at the valuation. no one knows where we are with twitter. but we know where we are with other high-profile ipos. this stock, two months after its ipo, trading roughly 30-times when you look at its revenue. google is about 15-times. facebook, 8 1/2-times. this thing is way out over its skis. 275-times. you need to think about this
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company, like facebook did, has major lockups that are coming out. after you have this kind of a burst into the unwind of a lockup, you have an even larger one on may 7th. that's something you should be concerned about with this company. i think its valuations, expiration, and also the discrepancy of the street. no one knows. january 30th is the first day of earnings for these guys. very important date. i don't know why you need to trade that thing until then. and i don't think you should be trading on that day. >> the may lockup. 454 million shares are eligible to come to market. as much as twitter has been a volatile stock in the last couple of weeks, twitter down to levels we haven't seen since december 19th. hasn't even been a full ride that we've seen. >> what's an interesting ride. a volatile ride. and primarily to the upside. it did have a little sell-off. but not seeing the kind of reaction we've seen from facebook early on. once we start to get some of the numbers you're looking for, tim. let's start to get the numbers
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before you get actively -- you can trade it. but you don't want to be trying to hold on to this thing. >> what do you trade it against? that's the problem. >> you're trading against momentum on days when you actually feel. and i'm talking true traders. i'm not talking about investing for a week or two weeks. i'm talking about guys that want to trade in and out of this stock. that's something that's possible. but it is toxic. and i'm waiting for that pullback. you saw it in facebook. we had it towards $20 a share. and you saw the container store today. it had a huge run to the upside. finally got a pullback. there are opportunities. twitter, i think the opportunity will be when they miss, i think they will at some point, that drop will be the opportunity to buy. >> quick, in terms of levels. if you're trading the thing as a trade, not investment. >> today is the day you enter the long sight for this. we talked about it last night. it lost its momentum, clearly. now, a choppy up three, down three. tomorrow could be up 2 1/2. this is where you trade it for the long side. >> we'll get the other six
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deadly trades throughout the show. we do want to get to the lucky seven trades. tim, your lucky seven focuses on china. >> yeah. china, it's as doom and gloom since i've been following china. and you look at the problems they have. we know they have a huge debt, credit issue in a shadow bank that needs to come out. there's been a lot of policy chat. last night, china was on fire. dropping liquidity into this market. look at the chinese airlines. two names for you. znhcea. these are $5 billion companies. travel in china, to especially outbound travel to places like hong kong and regional, is just booming. these guys are well exposed. this is a place you want to play the consumption stories. i don't like the state-run enterprises. but this is a case where you
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have cheap companies in a sector where i think it's growing globally. i would buy them globally. >> the six other deadly and lucky trades throughout the rest of the hour. the call to cut back on genetically-modified foods. we'll talk to hanes celestial. and regis philbin will join our celebration. [ male announcer ] start the engine...
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and shift through all eight speeds of a transmission connected to more standard horsepower than its german competitors. and that is the moment that driving the lexus gs will shift your perception. this is the pursuit of perfection. you stand behind what you say. there's a saying around here, around here you don't make excuses. you make commitments. and when you can't live up to them, you own up, and make it right. some people think the kind of accountability that thrives on so many streets in this country has gone missing in the places where it's needed most. but i know you'll still find it when you know where to look. anncr vo: introducing the schwab accountability guarantee. if you're not happy with one of our participating investment advisory services, we'll refund your program fee from the previous quarter. while, it's no guarantee against loss and other fees and expenses may still apply, we stand by our word.
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have been connected at home. it makes it so much better to do homework, when you're at home. welcome to what's next. comcastnbcuniversal. ♪ welcome back to "fast money." tonight is our seventh anniversary. and we are counting down our seven deadly trades and seven lucky trades. tim just gave us one. a couple, actually. let's get to guy and his lucky trade, which is -- >> cerner. cern. and we talked about this in president obama's first inauguration speech. we talked about digitizing medical records. and we talked about it the next day. now, it would be $10. this has been a five-bagger ever since. last couple of quarters have
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been a little dicey. hasn't made a dent in the stock, which to me is a great sign. people have shot against this on valuation. they probably shouldn't. it's a stand-alone company. for me, it's cerner is the lucky seven trade. >> and let's get to your deadly trade. we fast fired you for. >> and you should have. >> it was that deadly. >> what's funny about this, years ago when we started, one of the themes was western digital and seagate. we were on it on the long side. a couple months ago, it was time to pull the rip cord and get short this game, western digital and seagate. i thought it had maxed out. i thought it would come. i've been dead wrong. this has been nothing short of a deadly trade. >> you were right the first time. >> on the way up, we had it cold. >> yes. calling the top. >> calling the top and going short, which was deadly. >> we'll count down more of our lucky and deadly trades throughout the hour.
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now, to the health food craze, from cheerios to chobani yogurt. hain celestial is ahead of that trend. 90% of its products are gmo-free. joining us now, is irwin simon, ceo of hain celestial. happy to see you. >> happy to see you. >> got to ask about this news. cheerios going gmo-free. >> partially. >> does this diminish your competitive edge if more of the major manufacturers are identifying that consumers want gmo-free? >> hain, 99% of our products are gmo-free. there's some price ises that are not. we could be 100% gmo-free. there's no science out there. it's the unknown. and u.s. and canada and third-world countries are the only countries allowed
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genetically-modified ingredients. if that's what the customer wants, that's what we should be giving the customer. allergens in kids today. food allergies, there's so much unknown that comes from food. i'm saying, hey, if that's what a consumer wants, that's what hain does. and if other companies don't want to do it, they should do it. >> the question is, if i used to be a buyer of your version of cheerios because they were gmo-free and it was stated on the package, and now cheerios is doing that, will i go to cheerios? are you going to lose consumers because other manufacturers are going to enter this and you're not the only guy on the block anymore? >> listen, number one is, cheerios, and only one skew within cheerios is doing this. cheerios can't be half pregnant. one skew is going to be gmo-free. i don't think it's can fair to the consumer. you're either gmo-free or not. i've seen that with brands. partially organic or not
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organic. for a brand to be organic, it has to be gmo-free. earth's best baby foods is gmo-free. i come back and say, listen. i think it's great that big companies are getting into this. it brings more awareness to the consumer. we're well ahead. we're one of the biggest producers of gmo-free foods. it cost hain more because of the extra costs associated. i'm glad other food companies are doing it. i think it's great for consumers' health. i think it's great for the industry out there. >> what is in the pipeline, irwin, in terms of new products? >> in front of us today. we don't have a six-pack. we have a blueprint. blueprint, you know, blueprint is -- it is the new year's resolution. and what's going on out there. everybody wants to lose weight. everybody wants to look good. here's a three-day cleanse that's available. and i love this cold weather. we're complaining about how frigid it is out there. our hot teas, our soups, our hot
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cereals. >> the colder the better, for you. >> the colder the better. what happens -- you don't go to restaurants. you stay home. you run to the supermarket. when you hear of a snowstorm coming -- >> are you seeing it in sales now? >> we're seeing it in sales. we're seeing it in sales. saw it around christmastime. and we're seeing it to the consumer going and running to the store and shopping. cold weather, we love. and you know, this time of year, the consumer's out. and this is slim down month and everybody's looking to lose weight. eating healthy is not a fad. not a trend. it's a fact of life. something that will be here for a long time. whole foods, 377 stores. not that 1% that's buying it out there today. >> irwin, thanks for joining us. >> thank you very much. >> on our anniversary show. >> it's great to be on. this is a cake that we baked. >> did you bake it? >> did you bake it, irwin. >> you and i have the opportunity to cook once.
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>> i cooked and you watched. >> you know, i want to make sure it's not the cake. when we were cooking, it's not left over from that. it's a fresh cake. it's made with arrowhead hills flour. >> all organic. >> after that, we can cleanse. >> after the cake, the cleanse. >> i'm on a cleanse right now. i'm on a four-day cleanse. >> you seem to have a special glow about you today. >> it's the cleanse. and being here with you guys is the other reason. >> irwin. >> here's a cake that i want you to tell me how good it tastes because i can't eat it. happy birthday, guys. >> thank you. >> by the way, this is good to mix with some of the other stuff. >> i heard. i heard. still ahead, move over, apple. why blackberry says you'll be seeing more of them at the annual consumer electronics show. plus, the latest on what the ceo is billing as their next set of cool phones. and look out for gold. [ telephone rings ] [ shirley ] edward jones.
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♪ yeah. we haven't eaten it yet. welcome back. in honor of our seventh anniversary tonight, we're counting down seven deadly trades and seven lucky trades. let's get to the pit boss. pete, your first lucky seven trade here. >> hewlett-packard. meg whitman when she took over this company, did everything right. they layed out a strategy and executed to perfection. when you look at what the direction was, they had no direction. she's given this company a direction. she flipped around the balance
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sheet. she did everything from moving the get to where they have cash on their sheets. she's aiming at a hybrid cloud. everybody talks about the cloud. that's going to be crucial for hewlett-packard and ibm and multiple companies out there. i think they go a lot higher. >> and your deadly trade is netflix. why is that? >> i have been bull for netflix. had a huge run to the upside. scott devon at morgan stanley had a downgrade. he's been dead-right on both directions of this stock. to the down side. and flipped around to the upside. and has ridden it up to here. he's talking about u.s. subscriptions coming down a little bit. a lot more competition out there with hbo go, hulu. the competition has to be taken into consideration right now. the valuations were probably a little stretched. and so, on this pullback, i think you can wait a little while longer. after 2013, you've got to wait
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all the way until you get another $50 lower on the stock. >> since "fast money" started seven years ago, shares of blackberry plummeted 80%, down to about 8 bucks a share. but will a pushback to the company's roots help revive the stock? just wrapping up a conversation with back berry ceo john chen is ina freed. what did he say? >> i think he's going in some of the expected areas. one of unexpected area, he's doubling down on keyboards. what will the next generation feature? he sees a life for the little, tiny keyboards at the bottom of the phone, that's disappeared from every other smartphone on the market. >> is that why blackberry seems to be tough on the lawsuit against typo, which is a keyboa keyboardmaker at ces. >> you wonder why is this big company going after a tiny start-up that makes a keyboard.
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blackberry wants to go back to its roots. they want to go back to the devices that made them successful. government, regular lated industries. that's where john chen's head is right now. >> in other catalysts for the stock, we're looking for catalysts, ina. did he talk about anything else that may make investors more bullish on the story? >> he knows where the challenges are. he likens it to a surgeon. he says, i want to go where the tough cases are. it is a tough case. but he's very convinced that with a little more focus, blackberry can be a solid business. he's not looking to chop it up into parts. not looking to sell off part of the business. they had a for sale sign. he's taken that down. he's in it for the long haul. >> ina, thank you for joining us. a quick note here. nbc news group is a minority shareholder in recode.
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our special guest just called in. billionaire investor mark cuban, getting him set. we'll talk to him on the other side of this break. sty basement at 1406 35th street the old dining table at 25th and hoffman. ...and the little room above the strip mall off roble avenue. ♪ this magic moment it is the story of where every great idea begins. and of those who believed they had the power to do more. dell is honored to be part of some of the world's great stories. that began much the same way ours did. in a little dorm room -- 2713. ♪ this magic moment ♪ ♪ this magic moment so i can reach ally bank 24/7, but there ar24/7.branches? i'm sorry, i'm just really reluctant to try new things. really? what's wrong with trying new things? look! mommy's new vacuum! (cat screech) you feel that in your muscles? i do... drink water. it's a long story. well, not having branches let's us give you great rates and service. i'd like that. a new way to bank.
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welcome back to "fast money." we're live at the nasdaq market site. tonight is our seventh anniversary. and in honor of our seventh anniversary, joining us on the phone is owner of the dallas mavericks, mark cuban. mark, great to have you on the program. >> congratulations, guys. seven years. that's an accomplishment. >> we thank you, mark. you're at ces. you're doing work with samsung. you like the ultrahigh-def tvs. is this enough to move the needle for some of the electronic retailers? is this a must-have product for consumers? >> i don't think just ultrahigh-def by itself is enough. but i think what's happening is the combination of features, like uhd, plus the smart-tv element. what people -- as more and more people do over-the-top video, they want to connect directly to their tvs. and i don't think, you know, previous versions and models more than two years old, really, are really suited to do that
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well. so, i think the driving force will not just be the ultrahigh-def. but also the ability to connect all of your over-the-top video and really have a good experience with your netflix, or just your regular traditional cable or satellite. >> and the notion of conductivity. that's a hot theme at ces. internet of everything. wearables. that's something you talked about, as well. are there ways -- everybody knows you're an active investor. are there ways you're investing in this trend? >> oh, yeah. anything and everything that's technology-driven that's off the internet is what i'm looking at. i'm looking at it more from a private perspective. we're in an unfortunate low right now for a lot of reasons. we don't see companies that are coming public that are just raising $10 million, $15 million. you have to be a big company, twitter or facebook status to get out there. as a result, there's a ton of really innovative companies that
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are looking for equity. i probably have done 60-plus in and around the state. >> mark, thanks for calling. it's guy. you have a great perch. you watch the markets very carefully. what do you think for the first few months of 2014? >> you know what? i go back and forth. one minute i think, okay. if companies have a lot of cash, they're using it to buy back stock. they're not really investing in r&d because you don't have to. you know, as i mentioned earlier, i mengts i mentioned there weren't smaller to mid sized companies. what happens to the companies to grow to a certain point where they need more capital. and the real life -- they can't just go public like companies did 15 or 20 years ago. you see it with apple buying a company. even yahoo! or google or whoever. and not just in that side of the tech but our side of the tech. they'll go out there and buy the company. because they can just equity to buy companies, they'll just
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continue to buy back stock. and you also don't have as many companies out there. somebody told me that wilshire 5,000 has 3,700 companies. there's demand out there. there's fewer stocks. companies buying back more stock. on one hand, i'm thinking stocks should continue to go up. but on the other hand, people talk about how to individual investors get involved? and you look at it. for all of the prognostication, inflation really hasn't hit us yet. so, if you're getting 3% and above, and you're getting double inflation, basically, why take on the risk? i go back and forth between, as rates go up, people won't take on risk. they'll just play it safe. not a lot of risk of inflation right now. versus the company's cash being used for buybacks and bonds and atfs and everything. that could drive up the market higher. i don't know which side is going to win. that's what i'm paying attention
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to. >> mark, it's tim again. thank you very much. you talk about risk, we in the last four or five years have seen the risk of policy failures. but corporate america, as a corporate executive, how do you feel about the environment right now that u.s. corporates are facing, whether it's washington, the global environment and the fed has controlled the monetary supply in a way on some level, a lot of people have been sitting on the sidelines in the corporate world. how do you feel about that part of the setup here? >> that's a great question, tim. there's two different worlds. there's the companies that have 10,000, 100,000 or more employees that live in a macro world. they're the ones that are truly impacted by it on a day-to-day basis. if you're at&t, samsung, you're apple, you're google, you know, policy impacts you in a lot of ways. for someone like myself, who, you know, i think across all my companies, maybe it's 10,000 employees, i'm more on a micro basis, where it's about competing. all of the people i complete
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with play by the same rules, it isn't a big impact on me. i have to deal more with how i'm going to compete, what my core competencies are and how i'm going to take care of my customers. if somebody else is worried about regulations and policy, that hopefully takes away brain cycles and cash away from taking care of their customers and products and opens the door for me. for my companies, it's not a big issue. i can see for huge companies it's a huge issue. >> stock picking. give us your top trade for 2014? >> i don't have one. >> you don't have one? >> i don't have one. that's the way i approach it. when something hits me, i'll go all-in. but i don't -- i won't do anything until i know what's due. that's why i like watching the show. i get ideas. and sometimes it leads to something else. but you know, i did the yen terry trade. and i converted when it was 85. i rode that. i don't know what my next big trade's going to be or what i'm
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going to jump in on. but i'll keep on listening to you guys and i'll learn something and i'll figure it out. >> you have our number. let us know what that trade is. mark, great to have you with us. thanks so much for calling. we appreciate it. >> my pleasure, guys. >> mark cuban, owner of the dallas mavericks. and you can catch mark on "shark tank," in syndication on cnbc, tuesday nights at 8:00 p.m. >> great businessman, great sports fan. mark is fantastic. >> let's continue our countdown of the lucky seven and seven deadly trades. let's go to the chairman with your lucky trade. uri. >> uri. this is a name we talked about a number of times. the reason i like it is, i don't think we have really seen the commercial construction rebound yet. we haven't seen that really take hold. we have seen the residential construction rebound. that's starting to happen. but commercial construction, the size of that dwarfs the
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residential market. and we really haven't seen it yet. i like the fundamentals of the business. i also like the way the business is structures. we often talk about margins and how do you get a lot of margins? when you have a business like uri, where you rent equipment, then the longer the people use the equipment, that just falls to the bottom line. you really don't have very much cost associated with every additional day. so, if they can really start to have greater and greater unitization, we'll see the stock be a lot higher. that's my favorite name in the space. commercial construction. >> deadly trade, which is a retail name? >> deadly trade. a retail name. we are long sears puts. we're on the puts because the short interest is so high. we've seen. if jcpenney tells us anything, it's how dangerous it is to be a retailer with a shrinking revenue base. it's very difficult to turn that around. it's very difficult for jcp. we're seeing it. but sears has been having trouble for longer. and then, you have, on top of
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that, what is eddie lambert going to do? they're going to sell assets. i don't see how there's any way that the sears valuation makes any sense in any scenario. if they turn the business around, they're going to end up being a macy's? macy's is already there. you can buy macy's at 11-times, 12-times earnings. you know they can execute. they're doing it right now today. just today, after the bell. we see macy's cost-cutting. it's a small part of their overall staff. but they raised their guidance. and at 12-times earnings, why would you take all of the risk of owning a sears? owning a jcp when you have the best in class already at the best valuation? >> all right. it wouldn't be a party -- >> no. >> without two things. regis and tequila. coming up, we talk to the ceo of one of the fastest growing tequi tequila brands. and regis visits "fast money."
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>> hang in there. "fast money" will be back right after this. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box. ♪ all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. ♪ [ male announcer ] what kind of energy is so abundant, it can help provide the power for all this? natural gas. ♪ more than ever before, america's electricity is generated by it. exxonmobil uses advanced visualization and drilling technologies to produce natural gas...
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jcpenney, the retailer saying it's pleased with its performance of the holiday season. but analysts, not buying it. shares ending the day down 10%. and, pete, this is your deadly trade. >> it's my deadly trade. it's been a deadly trade for a long time. once you lose your customer, it's so difficult to get them back. it's the story for jcpenney. the management made too many mistakes. some of the shareholders forcing their hand. that's very difficult for jcpenney to get this turned around. i think the stock goes a lot lower. i think it goes a lot lower from here. >> and your lucky trade? >> my lucky trade is going to be delta. i love the airlines. i continue to love it. i think richard anderson is one of the best in all of industry of the airline industry. he's in a magnificent job running this airline. when he bought the refinery, that showed me this guy is innovative. he's smart. he knows how to make money. and the airline is going higher. >> let's talk tequila.
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let's get straight to the story. a fast-growing category. premium tequila. toasting our seventh anniversary with ken austin, the founder of tequila avion. >> glad to see the cocktails in front of you. i don't have one. >> i know. >> the seventh anniversary. >> this is the cocktail to get to it. people are probably wondering, that you brought for us to help us celebrate. what is this? >> this is the avion paloma seven. that's made with our aged tequila. we're in winter. we're going to drink a brown spirit. i'm going to toast you once we get off the air since my drink has vanished. >> maybe you already had it. that was going on in the other block. let's talk tequila here. it seems like -- it's a growing category overall. you've been able to maintain some share here. what differentiates the tequilas
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out there? it seems like celebrity and packaging. >> there's a lot of celebrities getting involved with tequila. but it comes down to the brand and what's in the bottle. there's lots of tequila. there's thousands out there. but just a few are breaking through. avion is crushing right now. it's a gold rush right now in this category. everyone's jumping in. category's up over 11% in ultrapremium. people are driving towards more premium products within tequila and other categories in spirits. we're benefiting from that. everyone's jumping in. they'll jump in, there will be a shakeout and there will be a few remaining. >> this sounds like what happened with vodka not too long ago. and we saw the push towards flavored vodkas. you have this espresso tequila. is that going on in this growth spirit? >> i'm a tequila purist. flavors tequila has not grown in a big way.
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but espresso is special. so, we took a little risk and did something different as purists. we are doing quite well with it so far. >> the tequilas are phenomenal. i had a chance to enjoy one of these. they might have a chance to show a picture. you were nice to send to me over the holidays. unbelievable. these tequilas are killer. do you ever -- are margins becoming an issue at all for you because so many have jumped into the tequila market? >> the issue is not competition. it's really agave. the prices have gone up roughly 500%. >> in what time period? >> the past two years. you're seeing brands like avion will be able to maintain in the category because we have the pricing power. the brands at a lower price are going to struggle because the margins will deteriorate. >> ken, thanks for stopping by. thanks for bringing this. >> i have avion 44 for you. a special version. the seventh anniversary "fast
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money" bottle. >> look at that bottle. that's great. >> this is special stuff. we made it for your seventh anniversary. enjoy, guys. congratulations. >> thank you, ken. >> love watching you every night. >> still ahead, we've got the man and the legend. we're talking regis philbin joining us after this break with his newest stock pick. some say regis never ages. but what about "the family" crew? but the truth is... we don't have to. the experts have spoken. now it's your move. ♪ tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 life inspires your trading. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 where others see fads... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 ...you see opportunities. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 at schwab, we're here to help tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 turn inspiration into action. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 we have intuitive platforms tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 to help you discover what's trending. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and seasoned market experts to help sharpen your instincts. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 so you can take charge
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>> pete is there. good to have you. and of course, the original italian stallion. went to dinner with him once. got no tips at all. he got tips from me. then, of course, there is melissa. beautiful melissa. she runs it so nicely. here's my problem. sirius is driving me crazy. apple is driving me nuts. pandora went up four points. why? why do these things happen? and of course -- he doesn't tell me. and then, there's apple. the big deal in china. so what? you're stuck at 540, something
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like that. it's ridiculous. i don't have a lot to tell you in terms of tips. i'm dying, too. help me, please. but have a great anniversary. >> we couldn't let him off without a new stock pick, either. >> i tell you who i do like, though. i do like yahoo! keep your eye on yahoo! for regis, will you? >> regis is the man. thank you, regis philbin if you're listening out there. and we know you are. thanks for those kind words. we appreciate having you on the show. some great picks. he rode micron like -- >> he's been on a tear. >> on a tear. >> people will be listening on yahoo! >> well, regis may never age. but a lot can happen in seven years. we want to see if our traders look different back in 2007. first up, the ambassador. while he is the dick clark of business news, like regis, he never ages. then, there's the chairwoman. the chairwoman was rockin' the rachel haircut back then.
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there you go. >> the same. >> you are also dick clark. >> the whole thing. >> the negotiator. now, this is pre-"iron man." >> i'm meaner looking now. >> you are. if that can be possible. >> you don't look intelligent back then, for what it's worth. >> and pete. pit boss. still manscaped as ever. but your pony was a little shorter. >> i'm not happy about the top. either shot doesn't look very good. >> handsome specimen of a man. and i, of course. i didn't join "fast money" until 2009. here's a shot from back then. >> oh. >> check out the -- >> i do not remember that look. >> nancy drew visits the set of "fast money." >> we've all changed. what a great seven years. >> been a great seven. our final deadly trades and lucky trades are next.
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we know we're not the center of your life, but we'll do our best to help you connect to what is.
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that's a live look from times square at the nasdaq markets. final lucky and deadly trades. ambassador? >> lucky side dollar. it's taken ten years for the dollar to bottom. the dollar will be your friend in 2014. on the deadly side, to assume that japan will do another 54%, and can get through the policy and stimulation, i would say fade the ewj. they're not going to do what they did last year. >> now, it's time to hit our final trades for the night. >> clay eem. and clay monsanto. if you look at the way we play the dollar here. that trade. the fxc is a way to pay the stronger dollar. >> chairwoman? >> liberty interactive. linta is the ticker. a restructuring of the stock. >> negotiator? >> we'd be remiss if we didn't
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thank the nasdaq. mckesson is my final trade. >> and pit boss? >> final trade is jcpenney. it's going low ir. i think it goes a lot lower. >> our thanks to the nasdaq for the last seven years. of course, our thanks, also, to my miss is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey i'm cramer, welcome to "mad money." my job is not just to entertain you but to educatie you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. for years we said they were cheerleaders. often we held them in con

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