hello. you're watching "worldwide exchange." your headlines from around the globe, european equities rally. jobs report is optimistic about what that says about the world's biggest economies. china stops stops global trade in 2013, but it's missed its target. imports beating expectations. good times ahead for swatch. shares of the swiss watchmaker high after the group's forecast

dynamic growth despite low sales in china. and shares rise as profits jump 21%. the ceo of infosys says beating some stability. >> announcer: you're watching "worldwide exchange," bringing you business news from around the globe. >> and a very good morning to you, last trading day of the week. jobs tri friday. ahead of that, equities are firmer here. advancers outpacing decliners. the ftse 100 yesterday was down some 30 points. this morning, it's up some 30 points. essentially, it's still absolutely flat on the year. 0.5% higher. xetra dax and cac 40 also 0.5%.

the ftse mib is 0.2% higher. this morning, lufthansa is up 5.74%. it's predicting oil prices will decline. meanwhile, swatch shares are up 4% despite full year sales just missing expectations. it's talking about dynamic growth next year and this year despike weakness falling in the chinese market. orange is up 11%. reports suggest both do you have ya telecom and at&t are interested in taking over the firm this year. now cara in germany, in frankfurt trading down 5.3%. huge impairment charge. fourth quarter revenue down 5.3%. the 1.7 billion charge comes on the back of aluminum prices and

a global surplus continues. let's show you where we stand with bond markets and yields ahead of the employment report. ten-year treasury yields, 2.9%. we were just nudging up yesterday 2.8%, 2.99%. spanish yields, 3.81%. still firmly below the 4% level. gilt yields tracking along with treasury yields, as well. euro/dollar, got down to one-month low of 1.4548 post the ecb's fairly dovish talk. and u.s. dollar is just up to 1.36 this morning. dollar/yen still below 1.45. on a 24-hour basis, haven't changed an awful lot. we've had chinese data out today and what's happened in asia so far. sixuan is with us.

>> thank you, ross. the shanghai composite was down six out of the past seven days ending lower by 0.7%. the shenzhen down by 1.6%. over in h index gained about 0.25%. in japan, the nikkei 225 managed to end a touchigher ahead of the u.s. stocks reports but earnings continue to weigh on the kospi, ending at a four-week low, down 4.1%. miners lost ground amid trade data. gains in index heavyweight fast retailing capped early losses on the nikkei. it added over on 3% after posting a better than expected rise on its q1 profits. 21st century fox dropped 4.6% after the company said it would delist from the asx.

meanwhile, chinese brokerages continue to tumble after ipos gradually come on line. we know eight companies start to stai take -- this week and there's 18 more to come next week. so there's lots to expect. forecasts according to an increase of 200,000 in nonfarm payrolls follows 203,000 in november on. barring a surprise 2013 could see the biggest annual increase in new jobs since the enof the recession in 2009. unemployment, that's expected to hold at 7%. rradp, which we got on wednesday, that was the best number in a year.

joining us for the first part of the show today, hans reddcker. hans, good to see you as ever. >> good morning and happy new year. >> happy new year to you. this number today, is this going to confirm we get steady tapering from the fed? and if that is the case, does the dollar ground higher? >> yeah. inde indeed, we are fairly optimistic. we need to analyze how the u.s. economy is. it is growing. it is no longer the same type of growth development as we did see from 2002 to 2007. than it was domestic demand pushing the u.s. economy into a higher growth strategy. you have to look at the u.s. as an investor.

it is the business side of the supply side of the economy which is doing better. you see at the same time and a result of that is that the current account deficit of america is falling and that actually means that america has now less bills to pay and that meerchbs dollars liquidity outside america is weakening. that takes me to the next point and that is the lending behavior of the american banks internally versus externally. and what you see there is that internally the lenning activities are very strong and externally they are very weak. it is very different from what we have experienced for the past 15 years. and that, i think, is a very good indicator of upcoming u.s. dollar strength. so to answer your question, what you will see is a stronger u.s. economy and you will have the fed continue to taper in the moderate days and you will have to deal with a higher u.s. dollar. the interesting thing is,in', every year we start the

year, hans, saying this will be the year when dollar goes one grow growth. is that trend over? when there is risk appetite, the dollar is now going to strengthen. that's what we're saying. that's quite a big change, isn't it? >> it is quite a big change. you see relationships are aesthetic. from 1996 to 2001, there is a stock market in the u.s. dollar. and then they are saying the following indicated it was the rest of the world offering this higher return and that will affect the relationship. and i think that we are going back to a relationship where we

used to be in the late '90s. again, the indicators we are looking at the early suggestions of the u.s. dollar strength. they are all in place. what you have is that there's a slow turn around in the way american investors are facing their portfolios or less investment abroad, more domestic banks are focusing more on domestic businesses, less on falling businesses and when you look at border flows, america is seeing more than in an environment where in total cross border flows are declining. and when cross border goes on declining, that's the host, i think. you need to look at those economies which have a substantial foreign liability position, huge current account deficits and support and that is where you see at the moment those currencies coming under selling pressure. so one of these xamps, for example, is brazil where we are seeing a substantial turn around

in the account and where you see the private sector being short of u.s. dollar. >> okay. and stay there. you're going to stay on the camera. we're going to talk china now. chinese exports fell putting more pressure on equities at home. imports were up more than 8%. china haas now missed its overall trade target for 2013, but customs officials expect a better 2014. joining us right now is shang schuae. good of you to join us. what's your analysis of these numbers? export growth down, import growth up. >> right. so the twael actual -- actually, the overall number if you look at the level is pretty good. the year on year has declined,

but it's partly because of the high face of last year. so i think overall, the trading side of the economy, the export side of the economy is still okay, but we're more worried about the domestic part of the economy and investment side, both property and yield infrastructure investment going forward and whether that can be sustainability or not going forward. that's a big question for investors going into on 2014. for the chinese economy now is much more domestically driven than export driven. >> yeah. but the import growth is the stronger section of that and yet you're worried about consumption. what is the basis of those imports? are we seeing the traditional things we night expect, raw materials and commodities? >> right. i think the commodity imports as well as consumer goods in december are holding up quite well. and that's actually in line with

our expectations. i think q4 last year is still doing okay. that will hurt the income for households and probably will hurt import going into particularly after the chinese new year. >> what's going to happen to the economic growth, then, in the first half? >> we think economic will trend down and either the second quarter of this year toward close to 7%. so that overall economy, particularly i'll say on the production side or supply side of the economy probably faces quite a bit of slowdown. and we probably will see that first on the pmi.

>> how do you view the performance of the currency in an environment where china has a did he deleveraging environment? is the renminbi going to appreciate further? >> yeah. an interesting phenomenon in china is that although the economy is slowing down, there seems to be pretty strong pressure for the nikkei to continue to appreciate. there's the interest rate differential that seems to be widening so for the government bond in china, nowadays around 4%. it was around 3% half a year ago.

so the wide.ing interest rate differentials drives the inflows. it will probably continue into the first quarter of this year. >> yeah. what monetary policy responses are we going to get as a result of this? how are they going to strike this balance? >> it's a tough situation for the peoples bank of china. controlling the financial stability and focus on the shadow banking sector trying to deleverage the financial system, particularly for the banks, try to keep the exposure to the shadow banking sector at a containable level. because of this, i think the interest rate will remain at a relatively high level and this will hurt investment so that will slow down. by the current stage, i think

the government is not that worried about the overall gdp growth because the current space of the economic growth is still very much acceptable so that they're focusing on the financial stability shadow banking on this issue. >> thanks very much for joining us. still to come, has the ukraine movement lost momentum? we'll be speaking to the opposition leader at 10:40 cet. investors are getting insight when the cpi numbers are revealed. rates are currently at their highest level since 2012. we'll be joined by a guest who says we should expect at least one or two more hikes11:30, bed

economy. and ahead of sunday's golden globes, which studio is going to be the big winners? our guest says this is one of the most competitive awards season ones in recent memory. plus, as the "wolf of wall street oh oh opens, we'll talk financial flicks. [ male announcer ] the new new york is open. open to innovation. open to ambition. open to bold ideas. that's why new york has a new plan -- dozens of tax free zones all across the state. move here, expand here, or start a new business here and pay no taxes for ten years... we're new york. if there's something that creates more jobs, and grows more businesses... we're open to it. start a tax-free business at startup-ny.com.

this is really just a move on very, in my opinion, about people that are excessive and what happens to the human mind when it gets too much. >> yes. you can forget about bulls this weekend. wall street is all about wolves. "the wolf of wall street" held its premier last night. chronicles the heavy excess life lived by one of new york's traders. we want to know which would make the best movie. which tale from the city or individuals in the world of finance trading business would

make the best script for a film? think about that. let us know. regulators under pressure who argue expertise at these departments has meant a lack of convictions. in what is set to be britain's biggest insider trading case. thanks for joining us. how much do insider trading rely on prosecution? >> i think that's the whole point. they have to seize a lot of computers, phones, these mobile phones that are temporary in order to compile the evidence. and the fsa today, sco, rather,

came out today with a statement trying to defend itself in the team that it takes to compile these investigations by saying, look, we have to go in and arrest these people. we have to do these dorm raids. it's important that we crack down on these cases on these people because that's a healthy market and we need these kind of reports of insider information. >> in the states, they crack these by giving immunity. are we following the same path here? >> i think they look at things like that. but remember in the uk you don't really have a right of redress. so there is a case of the 2010 operation, it was, you know, dozens of houses raided in the morning. it was high profile, 143 police officers were involved.

and seven people have been charged. but several people haven't been. for years, their life has been hung in the balance. now we understand the fca is going to charge them. but there have been cases where they failed. >> are these jury cases? >> no. they -- >> they don't do jury cases any more. i'm not quite sure the jury cases if they tried them in front of a judge. >> i think in front of a judge and i think then there's an appeal. >> jurorers couldn't understand what was going on. >> it's very complex to understand and the fca do make mistakes sometimes. >> we all make mistakes sometimes. thank you for now.

>> imports continue to fall and it was the curb on precious metals that continue to have the impact. the curbs were imposed to help bring down india's massive current account deficit. joining us on the year, exa zepatra is now joining us. >> thanks for that. it was an inlied trade deficit in december. the exports grew only 3.5% this month. that was all in december, rather, and that's because the petroleum products are in a bit of a decline. that is expected to normalize.

however, they are down 13% in terms of the total imports and nonoil imports which is everything to do with gold and silver and everything was down 22%. gold imports again, that component came down $1.7 billion for the month of december. very similar to the other previous that is coming at. and remember that there are gold which have been in place all the way since may to june and that's when the gold imports start declining. >> thanks for that. have a good weekend. india's second biggest software firm appears to have turned a corner the. profits jumped 21%, the strongest growth in two years. the results are helped by strength in its two major markets, u.s. and europe.

the firm also raises full year revenue outlook. take a look at the stock price. we'll come back to that. now, francois hollande, the french president, has accused the french magazine "closer" of privacy issues. the magazine claims pictures show ohland arriving at a apartment with his bodyguard followed in later by an actress. cnbc is currently waiting for comment. let's get some comment now from our french correspondent. stephane is with us in paris. i imagine this is causing something of a stir. >> no because it's not the first time that there are such allegations, ross. last year in march, they were saying francois was dating judy

oley. but there were no pictures in the press. this time, there are seven pages of pictures in which you can see francois hollande visiting the parisian flat of the actress at night. now, this is a private issue between francois hollande, his partners and if francois hollande decides to start legal action, he has a lot of chances to win this case. but it's raising another issue. you can see the president traveling at night on a scooter sneaking out of the palace. this is raising questions about his security. he's traveling on his scooter with only a driver and the security of this one location. but based on the picture in this magazine, that's not a private issue any more. it is a security threat to the french president and we can also argue that there is another

thing, he is not driving a french scooter. what about french people buying french? i guess the french industry minister will not be happy with this choice. >> that is the real scandal here. i agree with you, stephane. well done for pulling out the most important piece of that story. let's hope he's using our key products. still to come on the show, numbers are starting to dwindle. we'll speak to the opposition leader in kiev about the ongoing fight to break away from russia.

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we've got a bit of data out of the uk. november manufacturing output flat on the month, up 2.8% on the year. a little weaker than forecast. it's forecast to be up 0.4% on the month, up 3.3% on the year. sterling coming down to the lowest against the dollar on the session on that one. 54.20. industrial production also flat on the month, up 2.5% on the year. it was forecast up 0.5%.

we also saw the october industrial production revised to plus 0.3 % on the month. and november construction output, up 2.2% on the year. so construction output posting its sharpest jump on the month since june 2012. so rather disappointing in the uk.

>> what you see is the british economy is developing an uneven growth profile. we have seen that in the numbers and as well in the current account numbers. the current account deficit is at 5.1 is%. and i think the current account deficit is going to widen further. but when you are in a period where you invest more and this investment here in the uk is more in real estate than anywhere else, and you invest more than you save then you have the current account deficit going wider, but that means you need more capital imports and you see that yield on a relative basis in the uk are still attractive. it is a difficult time for sterling is also going to come when higher bond yields are going to reduce the growth outlook for the british economy. .here we need to look in particular into the consumer side. we need to look at this housing market. and i think that there the indications are still pretty strong as we have seen out of recent statistics and as well

out of the latest lending report by the bank of england. >> okay, hans, stay there. we'll come back to you. a reminder of the headlines today, as well, european stocks rally after the u.s. jobs reports. china tops global trade in 2013. although it's missed its target and the picture is mixed. ek ports slipped on weaker equities and demand but imports beat specations. swatch ticks higher after economic growth despite lower sales in china. now, the euro is recovering after falling to a five-week low versus the dollar following dovish comments from mario draghi. speaking after the central bank's policy meeting, the comments including saying if the risks increased. he said it was too early to

claim victory, though, in the eurozone recovery. >> confidence has returned, but i mean, six months ago, we wouldn't have said that. only three months ago we would not have been that exclusive. we want to see this for a long time before we say we can declare victory. and i would say things are slightly better. our baseline scenario has been confirmed. >> yerl, our colleagues in asia were told a longer term view is needed. >> i think he's making the point that it needs further reforms. that's my basic message, you know, we shouldn't react so much on a day-to-day basis. we should stick to a steady line, which is, as you know,

fixing the budgets which we've done a lot of work on already and now we're going into the new phase which has to be in structural reforms. >> hans, did margo do what he does best, which is sort of talk? he's very good at trying to use words to create an effect. >> we are still in a nonsymmetric approach when it comes to the monetary policy. it means if there is a rick, there's risk for lower rates, there's risk for mormon tear recommendation. and what would be a complete mistake is complacency. you have seen that the weather reform practice has slowed down.

core inflation is falling and when core inflation falls, you have to think about what is the impact on nominal gdp expansion and is that the right strategy to have when you have peripheral countries running or substantial debt overhangs. and i think you'll find it difficult when you look at sustainability at that level. i agree that the whole thing is -- i think, too, that this is going to have an impact on the way the exchange rate is trading. when you look at the trade differentials, you see the u.s. is trading on at substantial levels. >> everybody would say the euro looks overvalued.

yet there it is, the value that it is. when you see more policy action, how far do you think they can go politically and technically? >> when you say politically, then you have to acknowledge the ecb for a lot of people who are worried about an asset bubble. they are worried about that this money printed is not finding its way in the economy, but only into financial markets nap is actually slowing down. it is slowing down the process of providing the necessary recommendation. now, what i think is important to us is why the euro did rally in the fourth quarter. we had ierpan banks running and net pouring 610 billion viewers.

you try to get rid of this euro, this currency exposure. that is more an event ahead of the exception. now we are in an environment post the snapshot and, therefore, i think we are going to return in the euro to more normal levels. yes, we are overvalued. the question is what can the ecb do? technically, i think there is a possibility to go into the quantitative easing. that is part of the policy, too. they can implement and they get this deposit rate. that comes at substantial cost. what they need to avoid the japanese -- of the european economies, i think we need to have more drastic action. >> hans, we'll leave it there and we'll have to leave our

swiss franc discussion for another time. always good to see you. an explosion killing five people at the mitsubishi materials factory in japan is opening questions into the country's domestic chemical industry. the incident comes after a number of serious accidents in recent years. fushiko has more for us from tokyo. >> hi, ross. that's right. mitsubishi matteo says it will suspend production at the factory for the time being. the explosion may have. it's suspected that the cleaning water got mixed with chemical residue inside the changer, triggering a deadly hydrogen blast. this factory had no definite manuals forever operations and workers touching the exchanger by hand can check temperatures to start the cleaning process.

the japanese chemical industry has been hit hard. a director of a major chemical producer says automation is a major factor causing accidents. this means workers interact less with equipment and are less able to troubleshoot. for example, a worker was killed in a fire in japan in 201111. human error in temperature control. another worker was killed at a chemicals factory in 2012. since the emergency shutdown system had been mistakenly disengaged. shares dropped 1.6% today. ross, back to you. >> have a good evening in tokyo. have a very good weekend. thank you. in asia on monday, a lot of attention will be focused on bank costs where anti-government protesters are promising a massive shutdown rally. in india, we'll get december cpi figures ahead of benchmark wpi on tuesday. and the asian financial forum is

under way in hong kong. cnbc will have coverage during asia's programming. meanwhile, you got any thoughts or comments? e-mail us. still to come, brazilian inflation is set to remain uncomfortably high. how should investors be positioned for that? we'll be joined by our analyst right after this.

brazil's treasury paid the highest yield ever to launch a new ten-year bond. inflation is set to remain well above the bank's 4.5% target. the details are likely to add to brazil's woes ahead of a presidential election in october. raised the levels to 10.2%. dollar outflows for 2013 reached their biggest volume in more than a decade. joining us is james lockhart smith. james, nice to see you. happy new year. >> happy new year to you. >> the wheels are coming off.

brazil's -- a little bit. what's going on? >> the wheels have been half off for quite a long time. whatever the inflation figures concisely say, i think we'll see a consensus trend falling around 5.7%. we will see something slightly below that and remaining the same. in terms of what that means to rates, the next rate decision is next week. you would expect another rise in 50 bits and perhaps one or two more of 25 and rounding out about mid year. i don't think there are any big surprises here. and i actually think that it's a very interesting panorama ahead of the election in the short-term. but, you know, if you've been investing long, there's -- >> well, the play of investors has always been, look, we're going to have a consumption led growth market. have we had overzealous consumption at the expense of investment, that sort of left us in the wrong place?

>> yeah. low investments is one of the things underpinning the low end inflation rate. and consumption is actually now -- that model has come to an end. consumption is falling through the next of next year. but i guess what i'm saying is when you have a combination of the lows they have, you're going to see through this year. and market sentiment, which is especially bearish ahead of october, that's going to bring prices down. and you say physical deterioration, finance ministry pledged to improvement its physical discipline and it hasn't done so yet and are unlikely to do so before an election. >> yeah. they're unlikely to do so. i think the main goal for the government is to drag the economy kicking and screaming over the finishing line in october. to do that, they're going to push the finish line as far as they can go. you have a primary budget deficit around 3%, 3.5% at the moment. after the election, you're not going to see any massive shift, but i think you will see a careful change to some degree of

fiscal retrenchment. there might be slightly more pragmatism in -- >> is she going to win? >> i think she will at the moment. she's currently leading with about 5 0%, 55% approval rate. >> i don't know. brazil win, everybody -- these things have a weird way. >> they certainly could. you have the world cup, you have the possibility of an outbreak of further process over the cost of living or something else. there's a wild card, which is running on the ticket of another rival who currently has quite low approval ratings. i think whatever happens, any challenge will come from the left and not the right wing. her approval correlates very strongly with the society and and she enjoys the advance in that regard. >> yeah. in emerging markets we've been worried about what happens generally with fed tapering. but take away that, and the fundamentals should keep weakening, anyway. is that the story? >> i think it will, particularly given the large current account

deficit. i don't know how far it would go before the government would begin to intervene more actively at the moment. it's currently a selling swap. i don't necessarily see it imposing capital control again and sparking off some kind of panic. i think you see a gradual fall. >> they would be longing for the days of an overvalued currency. won't they? >> yeah, i think so. it seems ironic given the rhetoric they had a couple of years ago. i think you see the currency continuing to weaken. but perhaps what you wouldn't see is the sort of large swing right across markets that you saw last year. i think now countries are exposed. >> around 2, 2 1/2? >> yeah, 2.5%, and the imf sees it trending around 3.1% going into the next five years. >> bearing in mind all of that,

hard to see what the investment case is. do we just ignore it? >> i think the long-term fundamentals in the country are quite good when you're looking ahead five or ten years. it's a very large economy. brazil is the main economy in the region. it's not as good as the government says nor as bad as a lot of on -- >> and it depends on what price you get, right? >> yeah. like i was saying, it's not particularly cheap. >> so hold your powder i think is what you're saying. >> for now. and look again around june, july. if financial stability is still good or except for, then that could be interesting. >> fair enough. good to see you. james, thanks for that. now, minneapolis fed president mariana lecota says

the fed should be careful about reducing its monetary footprint, especially with inflation running well below the central bank's 2% target. he said the fed is failing to deliver on that commitment. while he supports the move to stop buying the tapering bond paying program, he says they could do more rather than less to help the economy. the outlook is dimming in the u.s. senate as negotiations to extend emergency unemployment benefits for 1.3 million americans fall apart thursday. democrats and republicans appear to be at odds over how long to extend the benefits and how to pay for the program. the gop is reportedly angry at harry reid who is preventing them from attaching amendments. the wall street banks may have to open their wallets wide to put all their main street practices behind them. banks are using jpmorgan's record 13 billion settlement to

help determine how much they would have to pay. the time says bank of america could be the next highest at 11.7 billion. ultimately, the mortgage settlement may yield around 15 billion dollars in relief for consumers. controversial "wolf of wall street" premiered last night in london and karen caught up with the cast. >> he spent his first -- on a ferrari. "wolf of wall street" depicts the ultimate life of excess. we speak to the stars of the film, jonah hill, who plays both his partner in crime and who plays his wife. >> it must have been curious to compare the lifestyle on wall street to the life in hollywood. but this must have been i guess almost a rival of what you've seen in hollywood.

i've never seen anything close to the excess of what we did in this film in hollywood. >> tell us how you prepared for the role. >> well, leo and i shadowed people on wall street and got to know what that culture was like a little bit. my character is addicted to a few different drugs, so i got to meet with a drug expert a few times before we started shooting. >> there's no doubt you have a colorful character, the one you portray, ada goldfish in the middle of a trading room floor just to illustrate how hungry brokers needs to be for the next trade. could you feel the rush of the adrenaline of making money that was just a dominant feature of the mid '90s? >> well, i think it happens in any time period. you know, leo and i talked about that ka leg ewe la in a film, you look at any ancient empire and it's the same thing. you know, when people have access to too much, you know, there's a part of people ta

wants more in everything. when that becomes part of you and takes over, it's dangerous. >> movies are about make believe. but the real life is often described as lifestyles of the rich and dysfunctional must have seemed out of this world even by hollywood standards. did it seems as though real life stakes were much bigger than anything hollywood droof dreamt of? >> yes. jordan's stories are crazier than what's even in the book. and some of the things in the book are even crazier than what's in the movie. so, yeah, i think in most cases, life is far crazier than what we end up seeing on film. >> what was your feeling about the events that were unfolding on wall street? >> really, it's astounding how everyone could get by and make so much money without really knowing what was going on.

that's the best view that i seem to get from everyone. it's kind of like throwing things at a wall and seeing what would stick and if it worked, they would do it. >> the film has been nominated for three awards, but it may earn more notarity for its record use of the "f" word with a total of 506. >> yeah. debate about whether people will go and see it or not. stay tuned as we take a look at the biggest movies going for gold. that's in half an hour. we're also asking you, what movie would you like to see, as well? worldwide@cnbc.com, tweet @cnbcwex or direct to me @rosswestgate.

open onning arguments are expected this morning in the trial of matthew mccoma. prosecutors may have some damaging evidence about his character. court documents until thursday reportedly show martoma was expelled from harvard law school in 1999 for forging grade tripts and then trying to cover it up. alcoa profits fell 5%. new aluminum prices are dogging alcoa which expects global demand to rise 7% this year. they told cnbc there's still plenty of positive in the aerospace and auto sector. >> we have record performance on our downstream business. in the fourth quarter as well as on the whole year. we see that our upextreme business that has been under

real stress through falling metal price. has been holding up relatively nicely and has had nine consecutive quarters of improvement over improvement. >> alcoa shares down 4% after hours. currently 5.5% lower in frankfurt trade. chevron expects fourth quarter profits will likely miss forecasts as global production explains. it will be comparable with the third quarter when it posted net income of just rpd $5 billion. >> european equity markets today are trying to trend higher. the ftse yesterday was down from 30 odd points and this morning we're up 0.of%. up 0.5% for the xetra dax and the cac 40 is also up 0.5%.

treasury markets, gilt yields, 5%. treasury yields slightly lower this morning, as well. currency markets, dollar/index coming off its seven-week high. probably not an awful lot we'll have ahead on the on employment report in the united states. and so still to come, talking about will u.s. nonfarm payrolls surprise to the upside because of a booming private sector? we're going to get all the angles, all the thoughts, all the forecasts and what it means for investors and fed policy right ahead. the second hour of "worldwide exchange" is coming up.

welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm ross westgate. headlines today from around the globe. it's all about the u.s. employment report today. is growth going to be strong enough? china stops global trade in 2013, but has missed its target for something of a missed picture. december exports slip on weaker overseas demand, although imports seize expectations. and shares of alcoa dropping today continuing low aluminum prices and a big write-down

against the company's fourth quarter results. plus, good times ahead for swatch. shares in the swiss watchmaker tick higher after the group forecast dynamic growth despite lower sales in china. display you're watching "worldwide exchange" bringing you business news from around the globe. hello and warm welcome to you stateside. welcome to the start of your global trading day here on cnbc. employment friday. ahead of that, u.s. futures are ticking higher yesterday after the dow was down 17 points. first back to back loss for a while. but this is where we stand. at the moment, we are currently some 47 points above fair value. the nasdaq at the moment is some 14 points above fair value and the s&p which is up 0.6 points yesterday is currently up 5.5

points above fair value. european equities, up across the board. ftse 100 up 0.6%. ten-year treasury yield, slightly lower on the session today. yielding 9.296%. nudging towards 2.99%. gilt yields are lower, as well. production came in weaker than expected. yields tipping down at 2.94%. as far as currency markets are concerned, euro/dollar yesterday, 1.3548. euro/dollar, just below 1.36. now, we have the chinese data out today. chinese equity port growth slowed more than expected in december. putting more question marks around a recovery in overseas demand. at home, nand was stronger. imports up more than 8%,

although that was just more by commodities than consumption. china has now missed this overall trade target in 2013 been but customs officials expect a better year. china haas now surpassed the u.s. a top global trader of goods. li sixuan is with us out of singapore. >> thanks, rots. some say this may be rebalancing, but on the back of those ek port numbers, china markets slipped further from their five-month lows. the shanghai composite extend a three-day losing streak, losing over 3% for the week. and on the policy front, authorities will require listed banks to increase the disclosure of their off balance sheet exposure. in japan, the nikkei 225 managed to end just a touch higher, but still lost 2.3% for the week ahead of the u.s. jobs report. meanti meantime, earnings fears continued to weigh on the kospi

down by 0.4%. weaker commodity prices in china's trade data. the stock jumped over 3% after the company posted a better than expected price in its q1 profit. over in australia, 21st century fox dropped nearly 5% after the company said it would delist from the asx. chinese index continued to post on shares. >> thank you. have a great weekend. it's all about the december u.s. jobs report. it comes out at 8:30 and it might show the labor market and economy trading higher. the forecast calls for an increase of 200,000 in nonfarm payrolls.

that follows the 2003 figure we got in november barring a surprise 2013 could see the biggest annual increase since the end of the recession in 2009. up employment, that rate is expected to hold study, it dipped down in october from 7.3%. adp was the best number of the year. challenger says planned layoffs fell in december and weekly jobless claims fell more than expected last week. patrick o'keefe is joining us on this friday. patrick, happy new year to you. >> happy new year to you, ross. >> all right, patrick. we've seen a number of houses upgrading their forecast, like goldmans and citi, as well. what do you think? >> i started off at 215,000, so a little bit ahead of where others were. i have to say that the adp

number, when it came out on wednesday, was a pleasant surprise. i think it indicated, as well as the ism survey of employers, that the jobs recovery in the united states has gone from a walk to a trot. >> what does that trot mean, then, for the next couple of months? >> well, over the course of this jobs recovery, we've been averaging about 165,000 net new jobs per month. more recently, we're up around 200,000. i think when we look at the underlying momentum, particularly what's going on in the goods producing industries, we may be tending toward about 215 to 220,000 average gain over the next six months. which would be considerably better than anything we've seen since the recovery began, the jobs recovery began back in march 2010. >> okay. it's good to have you on today.

stay there. we'll get a cup of coffee and be back for that in the show. anti-government protesters continue in central kiev, but ukrainians are continuing to work after the christmas break. more than 100,000 protesters dekrended on the capital on new year's eve calling to scale back the country's link with russia. the leader of the ukrainian left is joining us on the phone from kiev. thanks very much indeed for joining us. ukraine is in an interesting position at the moment because people want to have ties with both europe and russia. how do we heal those two points of view? >> pleasure to hear you. the majority of ukrainians support an integration. more than 50% of ukrainians want

for the ukrainian government to sign an agreement and this country with the european union. on the other hand, it's true that we have a very big neighbor. sometimes this neighbor acts like a bear, which is russia. and it's quite complicated for being very big on unions. the first one is the european union and the other one is new. i don't want to name it as the soviet union, but it resembles the soviet union. what is very important for my country is to find an association agreement, to reform in my country, to reform judiciary, and to be a part of big european world. on the other hand, russia is very -- i would say this is a very sole on lid and quite influential player, not only in our region, but in the world.

and the russian play is very clear. this is more geopolitical one. present and economic one. and russia provided to ukraine short-term loan, which is more sounds like a temporary relief rather than a real financial support for real reforms. .my feeling is that after the president finds a deal with russia on the 16 billion bucks loan and on the start of -- >> but that sense of relief came with no policy preconditions, unlike imf or eu loans, they all come with preconditions that maybe ukraine doesn't want to meet at the moment or cannot meet. >> please, ukraine and the ukrainian government, so ukraine wants to join the european union. the ukrainian government and the incumbent president wants to get the second term in the open. there's a reason why they

decided to have an interest deal with russia. you know, we always say that the only place you can get the free cheese is the mouse trap. and russia provided the free cheese. and it's crystal clear that there are some kind of concealed conditions between ukrainian and russian president, despite the imf, which provides the -- >> why is that quite clear? why is that quite clear if we don't know what they are? >> you know, because you can get $15 billion for nothing. you can find any place in the world where you can get 15 billion -- >> but listen, the $15 billion hasn't been drawn down. it's $3 billion to begin with. >> but the overall deal is for 15 billion bucks. and it's agreed and announced by

president putin. >> ohio do you attract investment while there's still protesters in the square? >> it's quite different. what we've done, we've showed to the entire world that the ukraine has a real pro ukrainian abdomen lection and pro ukrainian rallies, which are very peaceful with no violence. we had the number of crackdowns on our rallies. the key obstacle is a ramp in corruption. corruption and stupid government, this is the key problem. and that's the reason why we need to join -- not to join, but to sign an association agreement as the association agreement is the best recipe, how to make real reforms in my country.

>> thank you very much, indeed, for joining us, arseniy yatsenyuk joining us on the telephone. carnival has come out with a group profit warning. it says it expects to record an increase in december 20 20 13 mainly as a result of an increase in operating costs. and imputed finance costs on convertible notes and impairment of good will for the year. so that is a group profit warnings for carnival. >> now, cnbc learns that a real world investigation is set to take a dramatic turn. stay more for the insider story.

jox johns friday is here. stocks rallying. news less positive in china where exports slip on weaker overseas demand. and alcoa's fourth quarter results disappoint, hit by a melting operations write-down and low aluminum prices. now, opening arguments are set this morning in the trial of

former sac capital portfolio manager matthew toma. prosecutors may have some damaging evidence about his character. court documents unveiled thursday reportedly show martoma was expelled from harvard law school in 1999 for forging grade tri transcripts and then trying to cover it up. at the same time, julia riffat will be charged as soon as this month in what is set to by britain's biggest insider trading case according to a cnbc source. joining us for more, helia. thanks indeed for joining us. insider trading convictions are very hard case toes prove. what's happening with this? >> this was a 2010. it was the biggest case that the regulator in the uk had taken on to much fanfare. 143 police officers were involved. they were looking for scouts,

basically, in the aftermath of the financial crisis where the regulators had been accused of being asleep at the wheel. so this is the tail end of that. a lot of people have complained, but why has it taken so long? why has it taken four years in this case? but actually, they have come out with a statement today saying it's in the best interest of the market that we take the time, we need the time, we have to seize telephones and computers and it takes a long period, sometimes years to accumulate evidence. >> is the uk doing what they do in the states? >> in terms of immunity? i think the -- >> because that appears to be the most effective way. >> the sfo has gone down that route. one of the problems in the uk, the comparisons, while the s.e.c. in the u.s. has been much more hard core about kind of on finding criminal wrongdoing, the uk has been much slower.

>> helia, thanks for that. we'll take a short break. still to come, the bulls and bears this weekend. this week, wall street is all about the wolfs. we'll show you where european equities are currently trading ahead of the u.s. open. and that employment report a little bit later. they are trending higher by around 0.5%. i need proof of insurance. that's my geico digital insurance id card - gots all my pertinents on it and such. works for me. turn to the camera. ah, actually i think my eyes might ha... next! digital insurance id cards. just a tap away on the geico app. could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. everybody knows that. well, did you know that when a tree falls in the forest and no one's around, it does make a sound? ohhh...ugh. geico. little help here.

forget bulles and bears. this week, wall street is all about wolves. but first, the fed should be careful especially with inflation running well below the central bank's 2% target according to one fed president. kocherlakota says they could do more rather than less to help the economy. patrick o'keefe is still with us. i hope you got a cup of coffee. if we're tapering, what else do

you think we could do to help the economy on the flip side? >> you happen, we're tapering because the injection of $85 billion a month on into the economy is really not increasing activity. in fact, most of the expenditures by the fed on this money is sitting as excess reserves. so the tape heing in the general economy as opposed to financial markets is not having that much effect. what we can do in items of continuing to add to the momentum that the economy is gathering is add some additional certainty with respect to fiscal policy, come up with a map that shows how on the spending side of the government we're going to get thaurnd control. keeping interest rates low and maintaining that commitment is

helpful, but interest rates are going to move up as the fed slows its pouring of money into the system. >> how slowly will they move up or how quickly? >> my guess is they will particularly with the new chair woman they will move cautiously, that by the end of the year they will be done with it, but incrementally, it will be 10 million one month, 5 billion another month. one of the things i think they're trying to avoid is using the act of tapering as somehow an advanced signal of what they think the general economy is going to do. at this point, the fed needs to be out of the quantitative easing for the purposes of trying to stimulate the jobs market because clearly quantitative easing is not stimulating the job market. >> no. and that was always the criticism. we've made rich people richer, but we haven't put it directly

into the economy. pat, stay there. we'll come back to you. i don't know whether you intend to see or have seen "the wolf of wall street." but the uk premier was last night. chronicles the heavy life of exce excessiveness by one of new york's notorious traders. the film managed to grab two nods, but american hustle and 12 years of slave lead the charge this year with seven nominations each, including best film. joining us is brent lang, senior writer at the wrap, with his own views. good to see you. 12 years of slave, is that going to get most of the awards? >> sorry. i can't hear you. >> can you hear me, brent? it's ross in london. can you hear him? we seem to have a problem. he can't hear me. anyway, pat, let's go back. we'll check with brent and we'll

come back to you, pat, on that final point. do you think qe has been ineffective? which is the last point i was making to you. >> i think if we go back to when the chairman last disease announced that this round of qe was going to take place and we look at the markers that they put down for it, at this point, the unemployment rate is down, but the unemployment rate is down because people quit looking for work. because at the time that they announced quantitative easing, we were averaging 200,000 jobs per month on the three-month moving basis after the program kicked off rate of jobs gain actually slowed for a while and only recently has picked up. so i think the evidence suggests that it was an experiment that doesn't work. it doesn't appear to have done significant damage. >> are companies -- are we going to see companies hiring

long-term? we've seen a lot of on temporary and paermt employment created. are we going to see full time jobs created in bigger numbers? >> that's my reading of what's going on. i mentioned before the sentiment indicators. the institute of supply management survey, this most recent month, indicated that purchasing managers were a little less enthusiastic about the overall economic situation. but when you look at their responses in respect to hiring in both the manufacturing and nonmanufacturing industries, there's an indication that they would be ramping up hiring. i think now private employers see the recovery as on a solid footing and they are willing to make the commitment, long-term commitment to full time employee toes meet the growth demand for the goods and services they produce. >> pat, stay there. we'll have more for you in the last half hour of the program.

we're currently talking about the profit warning for the uk listed carnival and that profit warning pertains to the hong kong investment company. so our apologies for that. futures this morning are trending higher after we saw u.s. equities decline yesterday. well, the dow did. two days of losses, the s&p was up marginally. right now, the s&p is currently 6 points above fair value, the nasdaq 16 points above fair value. that follows an upward move for european equities at the moment where advancers are currently outpacing decliners by a ratio of on 7 to 2. the next part of "worldwide exchange" coming right up.

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. you're watching "worldwide exchange." i'm ross westgate. the headlines from around the globe, european stocks are optimistic about the what the numbers are saying ever about the health of the u.s. economy. china tops global trade for 2013. but there's still a mixed picture. december exports split on weaker overseas demands. although imports have beaten expectations. shares of alcoa weaker as continuing weak aluminum prices dent the company's fourth quarter results.

>> announcer: you're watching "worldwide exchange," bringing you business news from around the globe. >> a very good morning to you in the united states on jobs friday. u.s. futures are point to go a higher start at the moment. much will depend on what we get with that employment data. but nevertheless at the moment, the dow after being down 17 points yesterday, is currently up some 55 points. the nasdaq is currently 16 points above fair value and the s&p 500 at the moment is around 6 points above fair value. it's one of those shows, nothing can go wrong, let me tell you. european equities, up 0.73% despite weaker production and manufacturing data. the xetra dax is up 0.5% and the

cac 40 and ftse mib up 0.5%, as well. so what are investors to do? here is a recap of some of the thoughts we've already had out. >> still seeing quantitative easing. that's a really important way to look at what the fed is doing. tapering is not tightening. they're still dealing with quantitative easing. they're toll it could last for the whole of this year. and that is going to undermine the ability of the dollar consensus. >> innovation groups on first derivatives for me, this is a classic below the water line stocks. not enough investors know or have seen this company. the company itself has done a really neat operational pivot. it started out as a time and materials i.t. service company and now it's selling more software. more software equals greater profitability.

>> our view is that sterling will continue to react positively and for news, you're not going to get much in the way of thinking positive ftse 100. and just a reminder, if you didn't know, the december u.s. jobs report at 8:30 eastern. it should show the economy and the labor market trending higher. forecast calling for an increase of 200,000 in nonfarm payrolls. 203,000 in november. barring surprise 2013 could see the biggest annual increase in new jobs since the end of the recession in 2009. the unemployment rate holds steady at 2.7%. although it 2ki7d down from that level in december. recent data has been pretty positive, as well. adp, the beg best number in a year and challenged planned layoffs were down 32% in december. weekly jobless claims fell more than expected last week.

at the same time, the improving jobs picture has been closely correlated with an upturn in commercial real estate investment, according to the latest survey from markets who said the sector has emerged as a compelling investor globally thanks to attractive yields and growth profits. joining us from san francisco, the senior vice president chief strategy officer markets. patrick o'keefe is still with us, as well. sam, thanks for joining us. it's a very strange hour for you there on the west coast. but look, this survey suggesting a pretty good year ahead. what's the key for you? >> thanks for having me on the program. good morning. the index has been a steadfast indicator of continuing jobs through the u.s. it's continue to go be decree accurate as a reading of where the economy is headed. the index hit an all-time high,

stayed near the high towards the end of the year, really tells us that there's a lot of confidence going into 2014 mainly because there is more certainty. we enter 2014 with more certainty regarding the political environment, regarding the fiscal environment than we have, really, since the recession ended and the recovery began. >> now, look, competitive yields has been a feature here and a low interest rate environment. if market rates are starting to tick higher, is that going to dampen investor enthusiasm? >> we don't expect that to happen mainly because the balance between interest rate increases and valuation has to do with interest rates coming up. there could be more occupancy levels at various types of real estate which increases the financial performance of the

asset class. therefore our average yields are around 5.5% to 7% are still very compelling because the earnings incomes of the properties are expected to go up along with increased cost of debt. in addition to that, we're not expecting the cost of on debt or interest rate decreases to be very dramatic. the fed seems to be cautious. the market seems to be reacting very well in terms of what they expect the fed to do and, therefore, it should be a relatively orderly process. >> what's happening with vacancies, apartment and both industrial? >>. >> apartments were the first to recovery. many people came out of home ownership and became apartment renters and that brought the vacancy from a high of 8.5% down to about 5%. we're back to precision session metrics on the apartment. so was the leader in this recovery.

industrial states really shows the movement of goods and the strength in retail sales in the u.s. many people don't realize that u.s. retail sales are now 15% ahead of where they were at the peak in 2007. so the consumer really has come back. it's been a bifurcated recovery. nevertheless, the movement of goods and overall gdp improvement in the use has staged a very good recovery on the industrial side of commercial real estate. those two have been really outstanding sectors in this recovery so far. office and retail are beginning to show the same kind of recovery. retail in particular has done very well, much better than expected. and offices and we believe 2014 will be a very, very good year for the office market. >> pat. >> it's all of the feds given that we've been underinvesting, if you will, in commercial properties the last couple of years. we finally got some job growth. all of those are important stories. talk, if you would, a little bits about the demographic

implications for apartments for rental housing over the next, let's say, decade as the baby boom echo moves into its adult years. >> that is a very good point. in fact, those demographic readings further support expectation of dmantd. over the next five years, we're expecting another 4.5 million individuals in the u.s. to be in their prime rental years of 18 to 34 years old. if you look at the release of short-term pent up demand, the census department is reporting 3 million more young adults in that same age category that live with family now more than they were before the recession began. so there is a lot of doubling up, if you will. there's a lot of young adults moving, have moved in with family, expected to come back into the markets. so the next three to five years are expected to be very strong on the demographic side. it puts a lifestyle choice. a lot of new apartments being built in urban areas are

capturing the lifestyle renter that's rent to go high end luxury types of unit by choice. and so that is another very important factor that's in the rental market right now. >> sam, good to see you. >> thank you for having me. >> a pleasure. now, we can return to looking into the golden globes this weekend. the focus very much on 12 years a sleeve. i'm assured that you can now hear us. our apologies for our mishap earlier. >> not a problem. >> who is in the light here? 12 years a slave, are they going to pick up most of the gong? >> well, it will be a very tense race between "12 years a slave "i ", eye american hustle"

"gravity." hustle will not be competing against gravity and 12 years a slave. i say in terms of the hspa, the hollywood foreign press there, "gravity" might have a slight edge. >> the best actor category looks pretty tough. that's a competitive category. >> it sure is. it's one of the most competitive categories in years. there are only five slots here and there are about ten worthy performances. you have forest whitacre, matthew mcconaughey, tom hanks, robert redford, the list goes on and on. in any other year, any one of thoughts men would win the award. this year, they'll be lucky to be nominated. >> we talked about "wolf of wall street. "on "there's been much debate about it on the merits of this film or not. will it be able to break into any major categories? >> it could be. it's certainly a contender for best picture and best director.

martin scorczei just earned a director's guild nomination. will the controversy hurt or help it? it's a very devictive. it's profane. there's lots of sex. there's lots of drugs. there's lots of immorality. and that seems to rub some people the wrong way. now, academy members tend to be a little bit older. according to a los angeles times study, the median age was about 62. so will this be a little too racey for them? that's the question. >> and golden xwloebs knot the best predictor for academy awards. is there a better guide? >> i would say probably the various guild awards, the screen actor's guild awards, which are not this weekend, but the weekend following are in many

ways more predictive. the globals are handed out by a small corporation. fewer than 90 members are deciding that. the academy, in contrast, is slightly less than 6,000. now, they have a lot of overlap in their membership with various guilds. that's why looking at the producer's guild and the director's guild and the screen actor's guild are often a clear indication of where the film is in the heart of academy voters. >> it's a wonderful organization. thank you very much, brent lang. >> i'd love to be a member. >> yes, yes. i'm a member, i think. wolf of wall street premiered in london last night. what is the best story for the

world of finance? colleen tweeted to suggest heyman capital management director kyle bass president bet against subprime security by purchasing cds earning a hue payday. meanwhile, tubil mania. e-mail us, worldwide@cnbc.com, tweet @cnbcwex or direct to me @rosswestgate. still to come, a down draft in aluminum prices. fourth quarter profit. the ceo still sees a silver lining. more details after this. the moo. afghanistan, in 2009. on the u.s.s. saratoga in 1982. [ male announcer ] once it's earned, usaa auto insurance is often handed down from generation to generation. because it offers a superior level of protection. and because usaa's commitment to serve current and former military members and their families

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into a recap of the headlines today, jobs friday, european investors optimistic about the numbers as stocks rally. the new less positive in china where exports slipped on weaker overseas demand. and alcoa's fourth quarter results disappoint hit by a smelting operations write-down and low aluminum prices. alcoa reported fourth quarter results on thursday that didn't get too many investors excited about the metal producer's prospects. bertha has more for us from cnbc's headquarter q.

hey, bertha. >> hey. alcoa, no longer kind of the bellwether, ross. the results unofficially marked the start of earnings season. but now it's not on in the dow 30 any more. that designation reports numbers on tuesdays. excludeing items. profits fell 5%, missing analyst forecasts. although revenue did beat, low aluminum prices continue to dog alcoa. prices are down almost 30%. alcoa expects global demand to rise 7% this year at the same growth rate as last year. flat results aren't exactly what the street is looking for. there are still plenty of positives for the company in ir row space and auto sectors. >> we have record performance on our downstream business in the

fourth quarter as well as in the whole year. we see that our upstreet business has been under a real street through falling metal price. 40% over the cost of the whole year. >> in u.s. trade, alcoa shares fell 4% after hours. this hour in frankfurt, down a little bit more. just over 5%. earlier on thursday, alcoa great to pay $384 million to settle charges by the s.e.c. and justice department that the company violated u.s. foreign corruption practices act. the cost says alcoa prescribed bahrain for years. now, they say here politics and there are a lot of folks who say commerce is an -- when it comes to inter nationnational issues. >> and we're cracking down on

it, as well, over here. all quite right, too. we were talking about films earlier. >> you want an even playing field. >> yes, that's the point. have you seen the wolf of wall street, bertha? >> no, i have not seen it yet. >> are you going to? it's been a controversial discussion. >> yeah. it has been. i know. i'd like to see it. for one thing, i love anything that martin scorczi does. and i actually like leody cap rio. i think he's a great actor. so i'm very interested to see it. >> but it is friday night. anyway, later. bertha, good to see you. thanks very much for that. have a great day and a weekend. jobs meanwhile is the word

of the day. so will the nonfarm payrolls report be a hit or a miss for inveriers? we'll be over in chicago to preview the trading day. final thoughts in a few moments. [ male announcer ] this is the story of the little room over the pizza place on chestnut street the modest first floor bedroom in tallinn, estonia and the southbound bus barreling down i-95. ♪ this magic moment it is the story of where every great idea begins. and of those who believed they had the power to do more. dell is honored to be part of some of the world's great stories. that began much the same way ours did. in a little dorm room -- 2713. ♪ this magic moment ♪

you. we've been asking viewers what would make the best story as a movie. i'd love a movie about long-term capital management according to rob. anything to do with bubbles and blowups essential will would work well as a film. fear and greed always goes down fairly well.

meanwhile, it's all about the jobs number out today. and barring surprise, 2013 will go sort of revisions of that could see the biggest annual increase in new jobs since the end of the recession in 2009. the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady. adp, the best number in years. layoffs down 32 weeks in december and weekly jobless claims fell more than expected. at the same time, the outlook is dimming in the u.s. senate as negotiations to extend the employment benefits for americans fell apart thursday. democrats and republicans seem to be at odds over how long to extend the benefits. the gop is angry at senate majority leader harry reid who is preventing them from attaching amendments to the bill. so on the agenda, despite the

jobs report, we get wholesale trade figures at 10:00 eastern. u.s. futures right now are pointing to an upward move at the start. although, of course, it's all about jobs. joining us is todd horwitz. pat o'keefe is still with us, as well. todd, what do you think is going to happen? how are we going to trade through the numbers today? >> good morning, ross. i think the number is going to be very positive. i think it will be well north of 200,000. however, that number itself is very artificial because it only -- the u3 only counts the last 27 weeks. if jobs were so good right now, why are we looking for extensions for the 99 weekers? so i think the number itself will be positive. however, we've got a lot of tapped health in here. we have a tremendous amount of underemployed people. we have more people making less

money than they were making five years ago. so i think the initial burst for the number may show positive, but the traders are still hoping for numbers that are not good so that they can continue to free money from the fed and allow the rates to stay lower. which the rates, if you will notice, have started to creep away. we start to see the ten-year st starting to go well north of 3% now. >> yeah. and it's below it at the moment. i did see the two-year perking up this week, as well. this is interesting. and the fed doesn't want that. >> well, you know, that's all this year. but when we look at the overall picture, the jobs number, you've already seen for example macy's will let go of 2,500 people. we're going to see a lot of these say that it's going to make this number look better, come down, and i think there will be a lot of revisions. so i think the overall jobs today, although today the number will be good, overall it's still not very good. we still have a lot of problems. we're looking for extensions against the 99 weekers. the bad thing about this number

is it only counts the last 27 weeks, not the people that are not working and that's when they're not making enough money and we are still not seeing enough growth in this one. so a lot of the things are showing some problems here and i don't see it getting much better at the moment. >> pat, final word from you on that? >> it is possible that the unemployment rate may tick up when we get the report this morning. it will be very interesting to see how the markets handle that, particularly as we see discouraged workers coming back in in excess of what the job growth is. >> thank you very much both of you for join onning us, todd horwitz, pat o'keefe. happy new year to you, by the way. that employment report is coming out during the hours of "squawk box." that is coming up next. whatever happens, we hope you have a profitable day. and whenever it starts, a really good weekend.

that's all from "worldwide exchange." bye.

good morning. it is jobs friday. the expectations are topping 200,000. not so happy holiday foes sears, the retailer warns. and chris christie try toes drive his way out of a media traffic jam. it is jobs friday, january 10th, 2014, and "squawk box" begins right now.

good morning, everybody. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. today's top story is the december employment report. you have polled forecasters saying the economy probably added 200,000 jobs last month on. that has been upgraded since we got those adp numbers last week. it would be a bit above the average for the last three months. the unemployment rate is seen holding steady at a five-year low of 7%. as for the markets, the s&p and nasdaq are clinging to small gains for the week at this point. that's just this week. that is not for the first ty five days that joe had been looking at with the extending option. we're going to see what happens with that. the dow is on track for its second straight weekly decline and the futures at this hour are indicated sharply higher. right now, the dow futures are up by 66 points above fair value. that's significant because a lot of times before a big jobs report, nobody really wants to move one direction or