Skip to main content

tv   Fast Money  CNBC  January 14, 2014 5:00pm-6:01pm EST

5:00 pm
"fast money" is coming up in a few seconds. melissa lee, talking more tesla. >> yeah, you had elon musk. he said great things about china. i would argue one of the most accurate analysts on wall street. he downgraded the stock just before it hit the record high. he's upgraded the stock today. we'll get that on the closing bell. >> i want to hear what he has to say about the use of the word remedy, melissa. an exercise in semantics. over to you guys. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square. i'm melissa lee. here's tonight's lineup. technology takes center stage. the nasdaq closing at a 13-year high. and google, on the prowl. could the tech giant be looking for more acquisitions? we have the ceo of the company looking to automate your home. and breaking just moments ago, general motors declaring a dividend. should you be buying the stocks
5:01 pm
right now? let's get to our stop story. technology in the market. partying like it's 2013. and the big winners of last year are keeping the party going. big cap tech, social media, solar, all leading the way. you made this on a conference call. >> today, we're talking and looking at the screens. that's what looked for last year. and 3d printing. we had two disappointments. but the other stuff continues to work. why is it continuing to work? we saw yields come down here. some of the cap tech names that drove the rally today have healthy dividend yields here. intel at two-year highs here. a 3.4% dividend yield. and the ten-year's back below three. maybe it looks attractive. >> that's exactly what i think it is. it's the trade going on. a lot of money going into that. cisco, 3.03% dividend yield. if you have to put money to work, this is the logical place to go. >> and the context of the
5:02 pm
market, we're about 1% off of record highs. we're fairly elevated going into the year. >> i think things like the gm news are good to play into your dividend. a 3% dividend yield for gm, that's not bad for a company that's doing nicely. and it's not shocking, though. they did tip their hand completely, entirely. >> they said something like we are as close as ever to paying a dividend. that was a few days ago. they were pretty close. thanks. >> thank you. >> good things. i thought yesterday, after the show, i'm like, tomorrow this thing is going to be down 10 to 15 handles. this being the s&p. i was dead-wrong on that one. today confused me. we mentioned last week, i thought the setup for apple was the best on the long side for a while. we get criticized for being haters. and we're not. we're trying to read the tea leaves. yesterday's move down to $529 and change. and the reversal and today's powerful move to the upside, i think it sets it up for a move toward 585.
5:03 pm
there's a good chance you see it to that level by the time they report. >> at this point, dan nathan, you made the work that what is working, continues to work. would you buy into what's working? >> apple has not worked as of late. the last three months. what do you have in you have con catalyst. a monster buyback. and hopefully the promise of new products. this weekend, they're going to start selling phones. at china mobile, and foxconn might have shipped 1.5 million phones. if that's what they release next week, that will be a disappointment. but if you see margins stabilize and a product road map, guy is right. you're going to see a $600 stock. that hasn't worked. but the other stuff should continue to work for the reasons that b.k. mentioned. >> we have financials that things are okay. >> okay. right. jpmorgan. it wasn't stellar. there was a lot of noise in
5:04 pm
there. they are optimistic in general about the economy. they tend to be optimistic. but the one area of the investment banking part, equities, investment banking, capital markets, wasn't as good as you would hope, which i think is a read-through, not so good for morgan stanley, goldman sachs of the world. bank of america, which we'll see tomorrow, is a little different mix of businesses. >> i would be cautious on all of these financials because it's such -- going forward, three months from now, maybe you look at them on a pullback. but they have been such good performers that any little miss is going to kill the stocks, spectacularly when you're talking about investment banking. >> real quick. you would have thought given the tape, given the jpmorgan report, i thought it was pretty good. the stock was unchanged on the day on a good tape. that's a little -- open high, right? open on the highs. spend the rest of the day trading lower. that's something you have to watch. little concerning. >> big cap technology.
5:05 pm
intel a new high today. a top analysts taking what he calls a leap of faith. the stock closing higher. joining us now is chris danly of jpmorgan. >> let's hope the leap of faith is not off a cliff. wait until thursday. >> we'll see about that. you mentioned in your note, one of the reasons you're upgrading intel was the foundry business. and that business could add significantly to revenues and eps by 2017. what do we know about the pipeline and who they could be manufacture for? >> we signed up altera. and after that, you can get into big names like apple, like a qualcomm, like a marvel. i've been following semis for 15 years. this is one of the biggest, i would say, buzz topics i've seen driving down the valley in a long time. >> who are they disrupting?
5:06 pm
who should we be concerned about if intel is gaining this business? >> the biggest competitor is taiwan semiconductors. that would be the biggest loser. it's funny. when i talk to the potential customers for intel's foundry business, the potential customers are looking at intel, and taiwan semiconductors is freaking out. it's a big deal in the valley right now. >> intel had two-consecutive double-digit earnings declined year after year. the gross morgans are down 65% down to about 60%. you talk about the foundry business. this has to be a lower margin business, right? and analysts don't expect intel to grow a heck of a lot in the next couple years. it's one thing to get the revenue dollars. it's another to show earnings growth. and isn't intel getting extensive at 14-times next year's expected earnings? >> our upgrade is not necessarily based on the foundry business. it's based more on the p.c.
5:07 pm
business coming back. we had the ceo of intel coming at ces last week. and i asked what are the margins for this? he said they would not do anything that is margin dilutive. if you look at taiwan semiconductor's, the operating margins are higher. they're in the 30s. and intel's are in the 20s. i think this business could be in the future. >> i love the call because you got ahead of it. right or wrong, at least you had the courage to make this call, which i think is great. i know embedded is p.c. demand stabilizing. if you look at intel in the last 12 years, sideways to slightly higher, it hasn't gone anywhere. is it different now? >> really two reasons why we upgraded the stock. the p.c. business is showing a pulse for the first time in two years. and number two, we really like the new ceo. and i think what intel is realizing is that the way to the mobile business, the way to get into tablets, the way to get into cell phones is not
5:08 pm
necessarily through intel's own chips. it's through the foundry business. that's something a statement he made late last year. that's when we first started to take notice of the stock. and really the improvement of the p.c. space pushed us over the edge. >> chris danely, upgrading intel. taiwan semi, freaking out, talking to customers. >> i like how taiwan semi looks at this point. $17 has held here in taiwan semi. you've had a decent run in intel off 22 from august. i'd rather be in here. and if the margins are greater, they have a little more room to compete with intel on this. i wouldn't count them out quite yet. >> do you jump with chris, in terms of a leap of faith? or do you let him jump off the cliff himself? >> the stock literally just made a new 52-week high here. that's raised expectations in the quarter. you probably have a situation where the stock is up or down a
5:09 pm
dollar depending upon guidance. if i'm the new ceo, maybe that kitchen sink things here. i get expectations down. and i start beating, as i enter into new businesses. >> i hope he's right. it's been nowhere. amd has had a nice run. and no one talks about it. and in that space, it's probably not the best beta stock. but the best stock is qualcomm. let's get a news alert with dominic chu. general motors moving the afternoon session. >> general motors declaring that quarterly dividend of 30 cents a share. gives an annual yield of 3%. this is payable to all shareholders on march 18th. the first dividend from the automaker since it came out of bankruptcy. the stock did spike up in the after hours. the 3% yield puts it in line with ford's 3% yield. valuations aside, they will carry 3% yields. >> thanks so much. now that the playing field is leveled, which would you choose? >> i have chosen.
5:10 pm
gm. i think we're going to see more from the perform. and there's a really high margin sales for them. i'm sticking with gm. >> i would probably actually sell out of gm here. a couple of weeks ago, we talked about when the government was coming out of it, they were selling for the wrong reasons you want to buy it. here, i would take my profit. this is what everybody anticipated. i'd rather put the money in the bank. >> the downstream? >> downstream works. i think karen's been right, by the way, to pick gm over ford. i think ford, now that the mullally thing is out, the stock has some of its mojo back. i pickford over gm. >> i had long positions in gm and ford. i sold ford today. it filled in that gap. from that earnings disappointment. gm, i'm still long. i think this thing has legs. i think you're going to see investors waiting for the dividend. to get in this thing. gun lock's huge presentation last year. he thinks this is a 50-plus
5:11 pm
stock in 12 months from now. investors brushing off news in a rate haul for tesla. and elon musk addressed live in the past hour. >> it doesn't make sense to call it a recall in this situation. it's an over-the-air update. it's not a word that makes sense in the 21st century for the model s. >> recall, update, whatever it is, we'll get reaction from the analyst who upgraded the stock today. that's next. [ male announcer ] the new new york is open. open to innovation. open to ambition. open to bold ideas. that's why new york has a new plan -- dozens of tax free zones all across the state. move here, expand here, or start a new business here and pay no taxes for ten years... we're new york. if there's something that creates more jobs, and grows more businesses... we're open to it. start a tax-free business at startup-ny.com.
5:12 pm
5:13 pm
5:14 pm
and truecar users... save time and money. so when you're... ready to buy a car, make sure you... never overpay. visit truecar.com today. ♪ time to get today's top trades. tesla, jumping 16%. the company reporting 6,900 deliveries in the third quarter. shrugging off news that it will update software for chargers. see what ceo elon musk said last hour about his outlook for 2014. >> i'm very optimistic about 2014. you know, our rough aspirations, as i've said before, are to be somewhere in excess of 800 vehicles a week by the end of the year. obviously, we'll try to exceed
5:15 pm
that. but i'm confident we can meet that number at a very minimum. >> tesla's big pop, pushing the stock into positive territory for the year. joining us is ben kallen, who upgraded tesla. good to see you. >> thank you for having me. happy new year. >> and our regular "fast money" viewers will know you had downgraded the stock just before the stock hit record highs. this call, it should be interesting to see how it pans out. what caused you, what was the reason why -- wasn't sure in terms of the timing of the note, whether it came before or after his presentation. >> we were getting constructive leading up to detroit. not because of anything that was going to happen in detroit. more about where it's been. the short interest has ticked up to all-time highs. we've gone from complete skepticism to euphoria back to skepticism. and i think heading into this
5:16 pm
year, and guidance that we'll get in february, i think that sentiment is where it needs to be for tesla to exceed it. and backtrack on that, this is going to be the year of the model x. deliveries will start in late q4. and real deliveries next year. but we'll start to see the marketing campaign around that. just a model s out there, another vehicle. so, all of that together led to my upgrade. the news today was positive. i think that we will continue to see gross margins improve throughout the year, which used to be one of the biggest bear cases throughout the past two years. and i think that tesla has made substantial improvement on that. and will exceed everyone's expectations. >> so, ben, i'm just reading between the lines. it sounds like a big driver of this upgrade was just a sentiment shifted. >> sentiment shifted way too negative place. if you remember i was on the show after the q3 reports when
5:17 pm
there were whisper numbers that got way too high. and had a great quarter. the stock reacted negatively. i characterize this as the opposite of that. that sentiment has gotten so bad, that the street right now is looking for probably around 29,000 deliveries in 2014. i think, you know, tesla could come in and start it at 30,000 and work their way up to 33,000, with the news of the model x and the fanfare that will go around with that. i think there's enough good information out there that will continue to move the stock higher. we have another short squeeze in the make here. >> ben, this seems to be a little more of a trading call, i guess, than rather the fundamentals that if you try to value this. it would be difficult. what metrics are you looking at, trading-wise or sentiment-wise, that we might be able to look at to get into what you're saying there? >> i think it's the sentiment and you know, i've never backed
5:18 pm
away from my long-term bullish thesis on tesla, as it changes the automotive industry. you look at detroit auto this week. and there's nothing new out there. there's nothing in the technology front that compares to tesla. at the same time, it is a sentiment call in the sense that, you know, 30% of the float short. and good news to come. i think that the short is in for a rude awakening. those two things combined. we sal our $187 price target. i feel comfortable with the progress they've made in getting if those numbers. we'll see that progress throughout this year. >> in terms of china, i didn't see in your note. forgive me if i skipped over it. i didn't see model s and china mentioned prominently. musk had talked about the shipments, putting the cars on a boat in a month or whatever. is that a call option here for tesla for this year? >> i do. and the last time i was on here,
5:19 pm
and you know, i said there was downside risk, one of the things was, because the company has been a supply constraint, not demand. demand is coming from north america, from europe. china, they were still working through some issues. i think there's been significant progress just in the last few weeks since the last time i was on here, that is an upside option where you could start seeing, you know, a start of tens of thousands of model s orders coming from china, which could exceed everyone's expectations because i don't think people have been thinking about that. i didn't put it into a note. but i think it's upside. >> ben, thank you. >> thanks, guys for having me. >> ben kallo, r.w. baird. ben said this is a trading call. sentiment has changed on the stock. that's going to be a driver. >> he's nailed it in the past. and he's probably nailed it again. look at the stock reaction today. i love tesla right here. even up 15%, which usually isn't
5:20 pm
my style. but i would buy first thing tomorrow morning. >> would you think tesla? >> yeah. >> there we go. >> sort of creepy. >> just appears. >> tesla. >> all right. next up, boeing, under pressure after issues with a japan airline 787. warning lights signaling a problem with the battery. and smoke seen coming out from the fuselage earlier today. guy? >> first of all, that's not disastrous. but if we've learned one thing about boeing the last eight months, two years, it seems to be impervious to news like this. and had a huge move. love the story. the quarter's probably going to be fantastic. typically, as this gets closer to short earnings, it gets a little long in the tooth. i don't think you'll get the same beta in boeing being long at these levels. i think there might be better
5:21 pm
trades in the space. and the airlines we've talked about for a while. >> yelp, getting a big bounce. big initiated by fbm securities with a $100 price target. >> this seems a little wobbly to me. fbn, i'm sure they're a fine house. i've never heard of them. >> wow. >> with all due respect. >> it totally is. but stocks up 8%. 18% on the year so far. this is a company that trades 25-times sales. i don't think the barrier entry is that great. i think there's big players in the space that could crush their expected $229 million in revenues this year. i don't get it. >> like google. they can come right into this space like that. >> or buy them. >> or buy them. >> really? >> i don't know. >> just throw it out there. >> the sales iffer this company? it can't be bought. coming up next, a house that can do all your duties for you. "jetsons"-style. >> george, breakfast is ready.
5:22 pm
>> okay. okay. let me brush my teeth. >> hurry, george. you'll be late. >> it just might be closer to reality than you think. the founder and ceo of smart things joins us live, after the break. so ally bank has a raise your rate cd
5:23 pm
that won't trap me in a rate. that's correct. cause i'm really nervous about getting trapped. why's that? uh, mark? go get help! i have my reasons. look, you don't have to feel trapped with our raise your rate cd. if our rate on this cd goes up, yours can too. oh that sounds nice. don't feel trapped with the ally raise your rate cd. ally bank. your money needs an ally.
5:24 pm
5:25 pm
we know we're not the center of your life, but we'll do our best to help you connect to what is. welcome back to "fast money." we have a development in washington. it seems the regulators responsible for writing the volcker rule have made an adjustment to the way it treats collateral debt obligations. these are securities that mid-sized banks hold in their treasury department to earn
5:26 pm
revenue. and there was some snafu in the original rule that said they wouldn't be backed by certain collateral or hybrid securities. a lot of banks were up in arms about this. the american bankers association launched the first lawsuit and only lawsuit over the volcker rule, suing that portion. saying it's detrimental to the banks. other banks have offered a fire sale of their assets because they could no longer hold these cdos. now, regulators led by the cftc who jumped the gun on this release, are saying that trust-preferred backed cdos can be held if they were issued before may of 2010. they will be in compliance of the volcker rule. there's more developments, melissa, just a month after the volcker rule comes out, as regulators finalize and kr crystallize some of the nuances of this rule. google is throwing its hat
5:27 pm
into the smart home ring with its acquisition of nest labs, a company that develops products that communicate with its owners. companies smart things last year. take a look at this clip from cnbc's documentary, "rise of the machines." >> this house senses when its owner is awakened and knows to turn on the lights. turn off the alarm. turn up the heat. and brew a fresh pot of coffee. the home features some 200 sensors that can be programmed or monitored from a smartphone. >> joining us to discuss the smart home revolution is alex haugenson, the founder and ceo of smart things. good to see you. >> thanks for having me. >> what does the google deal do. there's so much concern today, the day after the deal was announced, about privacy. does that become a competitive advantage to you that you are not owned by google? >> i have a lot of respect for google's stance on privacy and
5:28 pm
protecting user data. i think all of the responsible companies in the space are going to have policies that really let customers elect how their data is used and only for their own benefit. >> in terms of the smart home, people out there may look at this and think it's a great thing. but i think the point that needs to be made is there needs to be some sort of an open platform, correct? where devices can communicate to each other. you see manufacturers trying to make their device smart. but they don't take to you or talk to each other. >> exactly. that's very much our vision. a lot of the best applications for the internet of things and in the smart home are things that happen when all these devices talk to one another. and so, you know, we have an open platform vision, with more than 5,000 developers on it now. and i think google's historic stance towards the open is going to be a great thing for nest and their customers, as well. >> what does this do? i imagine when you saw news of this deal, the $3.2 billion price tag, when you is a that,
5:29 pm
you must have thought about your own valuation. what does it do for your company and other companies in the space? >> i think it's great for the entire industry around the smart home and the internet of things. we've seen this as the tipping point year, 2014, where a lot of these technologies really gain mass marketed option. and i'm not going to comment on the nest valuation. but the impact of the technologies is really profound for consumers. it brings them security, peace of mind. in the case of nest, savings through energy management. and those add up to real dollars, relative of the cost of these things. >> with nest having now the deepest pockets in the world behind them, do you feel the need to partner up with somebody else with very deep pockets? >> you know, we have an open platform. and so, we have a lot of interest from large-scale partners, as well. we see this as just fostering a lot of that vision. i think that as google enters the fray, the other large players are going to make their moves, as well.
5:30 pm
i couldn't be surprised to see a certain amount of consolidation and partnering in the coming months. >> alex, great to see you. thanks for your time. >> thanks very much. >> alex hawkinson. smart things is private. >> bmi, they make the smart meters that go into utilities. you are looking for a connection to your home. that's what google has bought here. i think tomorrow you can buy it. >> i'd be in google. i think it doesn't move the needle this acquisition. but it just -- they're just the tentacles are getting into your car, into your smartphone -- >> your e-mail. >> that's interesting. >> the first thing that comes to my mind is honeywell for a number of different reasons. they could be a player. and honeywell has been a monster stock. coming up, looming regulations and the e-cigarette boom. and b.k. has the 411 on one
5:31 pm
chart that's warning of trouble ahead for the market. all of the details ahead. ♪
5:32 pm
♪ stacy's mom has got it goin' on ♪ ♪ stacy's mom has got it goin' on ♪ ♪ stacy's mom has got it goin' on ♪ [ male announcer ] the beautifully practical and practically beautiful cadillac srx. lease this 2014 cadillac srx for around $319 a month with premuim care maintenance included. ♪
5:33 pm
welcome back to "fast money." we're live at the nasdaq market
5:34 pm
site. time to look at a trade that's gone wrong. we asked our traders for the stock that underperformed in 2013. karen's pick was soda stream. here's what she had to say. >> the stock is trading at a very reasonable multiple. and the numbers have been quite good. the number of machines they're selling is very high. >> they're building an embedded base of machine owners. and it's the co2. it is controversial. but that's the way i'm playing it. >> shares of soda down more than 20% this week. the soda machine company slashing its 2014 forecast. saying it was hurt by a rough holiday season. >> clearly, a breakout to the wrong side for sure. i'd like to say this is my worst call of the year. we're only in january 14th. so, this is really -- you know, that release was just -- i was blind sided by it. it was not what i thought. is it cheap here? it should be cheap.
5:35 pm
they should be in the doghouse. we sold half. probably going to sell the other half. but the story, at this point, not hanging the way we thought. >> it has breaken down completely and you have to say good-bye. >> right. just rip the band-aid. >> i have to do a mea culpa, too. >> why? >> gamestop on january 7th. i said it looks for a trade. you had the sony news. a big capitulation day. we talked about it eight-times normal volume. and wham-o, you see what happened today. sometimes you do get false reads. >> the third-most shorted stock on the s&p 500. and saw its worst day in 11 years today. >> happy not to be talking about soda stream anymore. gamestop purchased a lot of shares in the fourth quarter at $48, $49 a share. leaving them with a huge buyback left. you have to wonder, will they be out there at some point in the market?
5:36 pm
>> let's talk retail in general. we have had a number of disappointments in the retail space. >> it hasn't been great. the retail sales numbers today were better than expected. autos are helping that out a little bit. they rised up a little bit. i would say, though, it's the same as last year when we had lumpy sales. a couple of players doing very well. karen mentioned macy's earlier today. but in general, they are getting crushed when they miss. >> is it a case with macy's, which is the only bright spot we've seen so far, where they've had a string of disappointments last year. they have restructuring going on. that was a phenomenal result. when you think about, we've seen four stocks. soda, lulu, gamestop and one other i'm forgetting. are these stocks priced to perfection? or was it as good as it gets in the holiday selling season? and it could be a rough, rough period for consumer discretionary retail right now. >> in that retailer space, you
5:37 pm
had a wacky day today. as wacky day i've seen in a while. the stock traded down to 804. huge range in game. haven't seen that in a while. i like the story. but the price action today leaves me wondering what's next in m.a. but i like it here. coming up next, lindsay lohan's latest business venture. may mean she's running out of catch. that story is next. fifteen percent or more on car insurance. everybody knows that parker. well, did you know auctioneers make bad grocery store clerks? that'll be $23.50. now .75, 23.75, hold 'em. hey now do i hear 23.75? 24! hey 24 dollar, 24 and a quarter, quarter, now half, 24 and a half and .75! 25! now a quarter, hey 26 and a quarter, do you wanna pay now, you wanna do it, 25 and a quarter - sold to the man in the khaki jacket! geico. fifteen minutes could save you... well, you know. (voseeker of the sublime.ro. you can separate runway ridiculousness...
5:38 pm
from fashion that flies off the shelves. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle... and go. and only national is ranked highest in car rental customer satisfaction by j.d. power. (natalie) ooooh, i like your style. (vo) so do we, business pro. so do we. go national. go like a pro. ♪ [ male announcer ] you're watching one of the biggest financial services companies in the country at work. hey. thanks for coming over. hey. [ male announcer ] how did it come to be? yours? ah. not anymore. it's a very short story. come on in. [ male announcer ] by meeting you more than halfway. it's how edward jones makes sense of investing. of the dusty basement at 1406 35th street the old dining table at 25th and hoffman.
5:39 pm
...and the little room above the strip mall off roble avenue. ♪ this magic moment it is the story of where every great idea begins. and of those who believed they had the power to do more. dell is honored to be part of some of the world's great stories. that began much the same way ours did. in a little dorm room -- 2713. ♪ this magic moment ♪ there's nothing like being your own boss! and my customers are really liking your flat rate shipping. fedex one rate. really makes my life easier. maybe a promotion is in order. good news. i got a new title. and a raise? management couldn't make that happen. [ male announcer ] introducing fedex one rate. simple, flat rate shipping with the reliability of fedex.
5:40 pm
welcome back to "fast money." shares of x1 are getting whacked in the after hours. the company says it expects 2013 sales of between $40 million. that's down from $48 million. that relates to machine sales not completed for customers in markets like russia, india, mexico and france. melissa, back over to you. >> this is on top of stratasys, coming out with disappointing sales figures. this space, it gets inflated. it gets deflated. >> i'm not saying you short these now or buy them now. we talk about these names all the time. i think the story still makes sense at a certain point. but when you have things like
5:41 pm
this, and when a stock is down to that -- i don't know where 3d is now. i'm sure that stock is getting whacked, as well. you have to be willing to stomach these moves if you're going to be an investor in these names. it's not going to be straight up in this space. >> time for pops and drops. guy? >> a lousy 2011. 2012. last year was lousy. it finally has a capitulation bottom. hopefully, even with the move i like potash share. >> this is a name that's been in trouble for the last year or so. pop today on better-than-expected revenues. but it just couldn't hold any. the trader in me says get out of this if you're in it. >> pop for maritime, karen? >> when you play the sector, you have to be ready for volatility. 4% isn't volatility in this
5:42 pm
game. that's nice. it could move much tomorrow. >> and a pop for lindsay lohan's free ride. >> huh? >> the apparently cash-strapped celebrity took to twitter and asked her followers to use her rereferral code. if they do, she gets a credit to her account. hopefully it keeps her from getting behind the wheel. >> for different reasons. >> why do you choose to be so mean to me? >> you're going to be in trouble at the break, guy. yeah, you are. >> come on. >> i just corrected somebody on twitter. traders seeing unusual activity in the broader markets. dan nathan has made his way to the smart board. >> let's smart this thing up a little bit. today, in the u.s., etfs, there was big call buying, the russell etf. there was a buying of 69,000 of
5:43 pm
the february 115 calls. that's a massive trade. in the spy, there was a buyer of the june looking all the way out to june. 188 calls. 19,000 times. this is the one that really caught my eye. in the eem. where does the underperform come so far, in emerging markets. there was a monster buyer of the june 40 puts. 242,000-times. and one thing that's interesting. if you think that china and emerging markets are the big risk, if you were long and strong u.s. equities, this is one space where it could make some sense. this chart is implied volatility. it's the price of options. look at this right here. okay. this was the temper tantrum. this was the flare-up. right now, you're buying options at this level here. this is likely that 242,000 february 40 puts that were bought. it's like a portfolio at cheap option prices. >> you like that directional bet, right? >> i think if the risk is china and you're long u.s. equities,
5:44 pm
it makes sense to be long eem puts. >> nice lines on the board, dan. more options action every friday. 5:30 a.m. eastern time. check out the website. big tobacco facing new obstacles with the big e-cig business. we bring in an analyst with their number one pick. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box. ♪ all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. ♪
5:45 pm
5:46 pm
5:47 pm
the tobacco industry facing fresh hurdles. will the e-cig trend kill tobacco sales or help at this point? in terms of choosing your top top pick, does it have anything to do with the e-cig trend? >> this has been disruptive technology that i think is going to propole the growth rate for the combustible cig and e-cig market over the long term. i think the e-cigs will increase
5:48 pm
profitability. >> the slow incline. >> what we need to see happen is continued innovation. technological improvement. more consumers embrace what seems and seems to be a reduced risk product. so, i think that's very important for the category growth to continue and for people to convert. >> so, is there -- how much of is it is cannibalization? >> i think it's both. you're seeing absolutely cannibalization from smokers switching to e-cigs. that's what we've looked at. i think in the next ten years, consumption of e-cigs will surpass combustible cigs. >> cigarette commercials were cool. the whole thing. then, they outlawed that. but e-cigs you can advertise.
5:49 pm
there's some talk that maybe they're going to pull the rip cord on that. is that going to affect the space at all? >> we're waiting for it to be published soon. i think there's things like that will be stricted. manufacturing standards. regulation for the tobacco industry really probably benefits the big tobacco manufacturers because they can operate within that environment. it's a lot of the small e-cig manufacturers, there's over 200 right now, that might face difficulties competing because of the extra costs. >> we've had some other tobacco analysts on that talked about the shift away from the branded e-cigs. you can buy your own tobacco and put it in. who benefits most from that? and who gets hurt the most? >> the big three manufacturers. lorilard, that owns blue. we see upside for that company. all of the big manufacturers will have the branded products.
5:50 pm
i think there will always be some pressure. that's where the gap will have to be maintained or narrow enough. who succeeds, consumer product companies. you need a branded that lost 800,000
5:51 pm
5:52 pm
5:53 pm
subscribers in 2013. back to you. >> david faber, thanks for that update. coming up next in the next hour of "mad money," you heard about google's purchase of nest. don't miss what home depot's ceo had to say. and walgreen's and regeneron, top of the hour with jim. [ male announcer ] start the engine...
5:54 pm
and shift through all eight speeds of a transmission connected to more standard horsepower than its german competitors. and that is the moment that driving the lexus gs will shift your perception. this is the pursuit of perfection.
5:55 pm
see, i knew testosterone could affect sex drive, but not energy or even my mood. that's when i talked with my doctor. he gave me some blood tests... showed it was low t. that's it. it was a number. [ male announcer ] today, men with low t have androgel 1.62% testosterone gel. the #1 prescribed topical testosterone replacement therapy increases testosterone when used daily. women and children should avoid contact with application sites. discontinue androgel and call your doctor if you see unexpected signs of early puberty in a child, or signs in a woman, which may include changes in body hair or a large increase in acne, possibly due to accidental exposure. men with breast cancer or who have or might have prostate cancer, and women who are or may become pregnant or are breast-feeding, should not use androgel. serious side effects include worsening of an enlarged prostate, possible increased risk of prostate cancer, lower sperm count, swelling of ankles, feet, or body, enlarged or painful breasts, problems breathing during sleep, and blood clots in the legs. tell your doctor about your medical conditions and medications, especially insulin,
5:56 pm
corticosteroids, or medicines to decrease blood clotting. in a clinical study, over 80% of treated men had their t levels restored to normal. talk to your doctor about all your symptoms. get the blood tests. change your number. turn it up. androgel 1.62%. you tweeted, we trade it. let's get to our tweets. this one is for guy. what metrics do you use to determine if a desired stock has dipped enough to buy? >> i look for a volume event. on any given day, a flush of trades. like 15 million shares like gamestop did on january 7th. that was an indication. turned out to be a wrong one. point, it doesn't always work. but it works a lot. >> b.k., are you a buyer of stratasys? >> love this technology factor in the box. but i prefer triple d. that's what i'm calling it.
5:57 pm
i prefer triple d. >> what do you make in terms of sentiment in the sector with stratasys? >> triple d has a $9 million market cap. it's ridiculous to me. >> that's in the box. >> i think you buy the sub $1 million ones. no one can buy triple d. >> karen, when does bank of america have a buyback? >> they have a 1 cent dividend. >> that doesn't really count. >> it's just to be a dividend payer. i think this year we will see something. but i don't know if that will move the story as much. to me, it's earnings. about earnings. >> and earnings are out tomorrow. >> tomorrow. >> dan, family dollar. january calls being bought yesterday, with the downgrade today. >> today, whatever happened yesterday, this dwarfed it. somebody looking out a year from now, bought 25,000, 50,000 of the january 15.
5:58 pm
i know that sounds complicated. but that person is looking for that stock to be between 62 and 55. that's the 52-week low of the stock over the last year. so, to me, somebody's putting a lot of capital to that trade. >> that would be -- >> we should do a show on -- >> that went off the rails a little bit. >> a little bit. >> we said all of the one by twos and halves and everything. i got it written down. i'm going to go over it after the show. >> here's a good story, guys. i don't know if you saw this. it appears the takeover bid for allied nevada is a mistake. this company called china gold stone is retracting its offer for the company saying the news release sent out earlier today was an error. take a look at the chart here. allied nevada gained as much as 52% before trading was halted. but the stock still closed up about 7%. >> that is ridiculous. >> i mean, you asked a good question in the green room. is china stone gold a real
5:59 pm
company? >> i don't know. is it gold? what is it? >> they make ice cream. coldstone. i got that wrong. >> that's scary stuff. that should be an investigation. >> an investigation, as to who made that bid, why was it -- >> very uncool. and redacted it. >> i wanted to say redacted on air. >> retracted. >> redacted. retracted. >> recalled. >> there's different things. redacted is what you do -- >> black out things. >> redonkulous. very good. >> final trade time. relocate. gm, we talked about it earlier. increase share buybacks. i like it. >> you know, dan's smart board trick there told me i should buy vix. but i don't like the etf. >> karen? >> of the big banks, citi i think has the most upside. >> guy? >> might have gotten right on a capitulation. a nice day today. i think there's room on the upside. >> all right. i'm melissa lee. thanks for watching.
6:00 pm
see you tomorrow at 5:00 for "fast money." "mad money" has a huge lineup. that's coming up right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer! welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. my job not only to entertain, but to teach. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. maybe george michael was right. when he sang

117 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on