tv Fast Money CNBC January 16, 2014 5:00pm-6:01pm EST
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today. "fast money" is coming up in a couple seconds. melissa lee, what is happening? >> from brothels to robots, kelly. you're probably thinking, i wonder how many global industrial robots there are, right? >> exactly. >> yeah. record-highs. did you know that? record-highs. >> that's not going to help, melissa, with the situation -- we talk a lot about wages, about employment. >> exactly. >> but it will help manufacturing. and it will help the makers of the robots. we're going to give you the rise of the machine trades. >> all right. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square. our traders are tim seymour, brian kelly, karen finerman, and guy adami. we have someone who says buy best buy on the dip today. it crashed after reporting ugly holiday sales numbers. it's the latest in a series of numbers that have dropped bombs in the past but years. and stocks have suffered because of it. let's start off with best buy first. this is the fourth time, the
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fourth time best buy has lost about one-third of its market cap in a single trading session. >> this was a doozy, though. >> the past 37%. 34%. 39%. and today's decline. >> when a stock tripled in 2013, it sets it up for this kind of a move. and they think they can combat the showrooming element of it. they have wonderful showrooms, which cost a lot of money. and you have a structural decline in the electronics industry-wide and the demand. i don't think this company is going out of business. somewhere, actually here, there's an opportunity. i think this is an overreaction. >> i'm with tim. massive, massive overreaction. in the month of october 2008, best buy went from $36 to $26. best buy did that today. if you think the world looks a lot worse today than it did in october 2008, don't buy the
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stock. i think this is a huge opportunity to buy the stock for at least a trade. >> i have to agree with those guys. 81 million shares. it traded 85 million today. the move to $27. it's a 28% move. it also happens to be, basically, the 50% correction of the low we saw earlier this year. the tim seymour down on the hook, nailed, by the way, because he was bullish the majority part of the year. and the high we made this year. for all of the technical reasons, just in terms of a capitulation move, at 27 bucks, it's pretty interesting. >> we took to the streets to talk to consumers why they go to best buy. here's what they had to say. >> what brought me in to best buy -- >> to get some adapters and stuff. >> i went to the geek squad to have my computer and my laptop taken care of. >> i was browsing. >> usb hard drives. and also, check in on the
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playstation 4. >> we're here traveling from toronto. and he needed to find a bathroom. >> i normally come to the store to buy things. >> i usually buy online. >> our office is just across the street. it's easy to come here and pick up quick. >> i never buy online. i'll look at things online. but then, i have to touch them. >> like your brother. you never buy online. >> sounds like radio shack with a bathroom. >> that was a little creepy there. but all points we made before. >> and the whole buying online notion. part of best buy's problems is they're trying to compete on price. >> they're all over 40. nobody -- >> it's a small sample. >> but they couldn't find any younger people, right? >> who needed the bathroom? who was that? >> that kid with the reservoir-tipped hat. >> he might have been younger. it seems the majority of people are used to going to a store anyway. the world has changed. and they're trying to do this.
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if best buy can shrink their store size and make it more convenient to get to them, that's a winning strategy. >> it seems a little overdone. >> would you consider going in? >> that's the thing, no. i think it's fine for a trade. no. i wouldn't. it's fairly priced here. >> you may remember just before the holidays, we had on david strasser. he called best buy one of his best picks for 2014. >> low teens, earnings multiple, with an opportunity here. this is a turnaround, as this continues to gain traction, the earnings numbers will accelerate from here and maybe rather dramatically. i'm sticking with this through 2014. one of the cheapest stocks in retail. of these bigger cap names. and also with accelerating fundamentals. >> with today's drop, best buy is down 35% since that call. so, what now? let's bring in david himself. david, we should give you props. you had best buy as your top
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pick. it was the third-best performer on the s&p 500 in 2013. for 2014 and there's a long year ahead, you stick with this call. >> i lived through best buy for 15 years. i've seen these moves. yeah. i think this is going to be fine. it's a tough consumer. i was a little dazed today. it was scary, the gross margin there. that was a big hit. they made some -- some of it was self-induced. and what frustrated for me, i was screaming when i saw walmart get addressive in november. this was the most aggressive i've seen since 1995. this was hard for everybody. there's not a lot of people who survived this today. >> at the same time, there was aggressive promotional activity. but a company like hh greg opted out of that promotional activity. is it the category itself? what is going on here? those who engage in the promotional activity didn't do well. those who opted out, didn't do
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well, either. >> it was a tough -- first of all, a lot on the mobile side, there's not a lot of innovation. and apple didn't have the inventory that people wanted. you look at dvds and cds. they cut it in half this year. good move in the long term, i think. there's a lot of traffic that comes with that that they didn't have the right marketing plan to get more people into the store. that's something they can fix for next year. the tv category, 4k is going to be an interesting product. it's not going to knock the lights off. but the prices have come down a lot. you're going to see sub $1,500 probably going under $1,000. that's going to help tv. >> how many people does this have heard of 4k tvs? >> i'm waiting for the next generation. >> is that like 4g?
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>> is that a problem? >> it's very new right now. that's the point. when they get to under $1,500, everyone's going to see them and hear about them. when they get to $1,000, everybody's going to hear about them. when netflix is doing 4k. that's going to help. there's a lot of things that are going to go right here. but it's a tough environment out there product-wise and in the economy. >> let me ask you about this business, then. if the h.h. gregs can't make it with their strategy, these guys have difficulty with their strategy. at what point do the retailers push back on the apples, the sony, samsung, and say we need a different split here? >> i think you're seeing that at best buy. take it into perspective. the gross margin got hit. comps down 1%, against the toughest comp they were down which was up 1%. hardly a not something -- hardly a disaster. they also had the toughest gross
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margin comp this year. as an analyst, i should have been more on top of that, as well. but they were up against some tough gross margins. tough come store sales before the holiday. you had walmart. and sears got hurt. toys "r" us, which does a lot in electronics, got hurt this holiday. a lot independents got hurt this holiday, too. the one that survive, will have more market share out there. appliances. sears is giving up share every day there. that's going to be a great business. there's a couple million dollars of sears consumer electronics. that's going to be a great business, as well. i can talk about a lot of the independents that had tough times this holiday. >> david, good to see you. david strasser of janney montgomery. change your mind at all? >> i was impressed with, their online business group. this is where they're trying to compete. i'm very encouraged by that. i said what i said at the top of the show. i think this is an interesting place to own this stock. >> we got a lot of companies who
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had difficult holiday seasons. is this a sign of a weaker consumer? or a slowing economy maybe? >> to me, it seems that way. and i know we had a discussion earlier on the conference call that there are lumpy parts of the retail story. there are some companies with company-specific problems. when you start to connect the dots. when you start to see ism service number employment number down. and you see the jobs number down. and canada losing jobs. australia losing jobs. german gdp coming in weaker than expected. all of these things start to paint the picture that the economy is not as strong. at the very least, that the stock market says it is. >> we have bed, bath & beyond, lululemon. >> these companies are all broken, though. you named every company you rattled off, with the exception of one, has some kind of a structural or inherent problem to them. when i look at what's going on. consumer spending was up. we got some info before the show.
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what i'm seeing in terms of the consumption numbers were way up. consumer spending was down. we have wage growth from the philly fed. 8 out of 12 districts have wage growth. that's up from three. total inflation adjusted consumer spending was up 3.6% in quarter three. that's well beyond where they were. and fourth quarter is looking for its largest gain in three years. is that a consumer that's dead? it's at valuation and picking good companies here. >> i agree with tim. all of the companies you mentioned have their specific problems. then, you throw in the autos. we said it's a one-month thing. >> weather, et cetera. >> that's another data point. what i would say is, i don't think the consumer is better off than five or six years ago. just my opinion. the only thing that's changed is a stock market that's close to tripled. the consumer is making the same mistakes they made in 2006, 2007. and although the spending numbers absolutely seem better,
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doesn't mean the consumer's health is any better. >> i think i know the answer to this. what you're saying is the fed totally got it wrong. the fed was going after two things. going after the housing market and the stock market for the wealth effect and for giving the consumer the ability like they can spend again. that's exactly where we are. >> that's the thing. how much does the stock market help? what percentage of the population is helped by a rising stock market? i don't know the answer to that. i don't think it's as much as people think. the housing market affects a lot of people. i don't think the stock market does. >> i don't think this is a market rally that's helped main street as much as it's helped the high end. >> i think there's a shift in what the consumer spends money on. we talked about it earlier in the late fall, early winter, about the big goods. autos. >> right. >> home repair. things like that. there is a shift. i do think retail, this is really looking bad. and you have just a few who did okay. like a macy's.
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but other than that -- >> is this a valuation thing? >> valuation has moved a lot. >> that's my point. stocks that are getting hurt are not cheap. >> yes, i agree with that. >> the consumer is falling apart. i don't agree with. >> here's another data point for our conversation. look at elizabeth arden sinking in the afternoon session. dom chu with that. >> singing is putting it lightly. these shares are down. they've lost one-fifth of their value in the after-hours trading. elizabeth arden has preannounced some results. they're going to say that the quarter, in terms of what they're going to report, $1.05 per share. that's below what analysts were expecting. and sales to come in at $418 million. far below the $468 million analysts were expecting. the ceo of the company, basically said the results were significantly impacted by increased levels of discounted
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activity globally. they're disappointed with these results. they made this decision in the quarter not to participate fully in the heavy promotional and discounting environment. basically, they're saying they didn't mark things down. and sales suffered as a result. >> thanks for that. look at shares of estee lauder in the afternoon sessions. as well as avon. this is a theme we heard across sectors. no promotional activity. >> they won best in class, estee lauder. i'd better be down than the avan, rev llons on the world. alta has come inial 83 today. >> how different is estee lauder's customers? is it on the high end? >> it's a spectrum. but certainly on the high end. >> we've seen that theme. american express. >> the high-end getting hurt? >> maybe. but the low ends are certainly
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getting hurt. look at american express. the spend was up 8%. capital one out tonight, came up with awful earnings. they're on the lower end of the spectrum. you're seeing the split. maybe the wealth effect that guy was talking about. but that's what's going on here. >> karen made an interesting trade. actually bought into jcpenney today. >> i did. it was sort of counter to my genetic makeup. look where the stock is. not that it's cheap. it's just a lot lower. so, i feel like so much bad news is in this stock. everything they say is interpreted negatively. today's store closing, 33 stores. they had a base of close to 1,100 stores. it's not a giant move, really. and i actually think it could be helpful to -- these are money-losing stores. if they can close money-losing stores and hopefully not have a lot of negative operating leverage because of that, i
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think -- and they have some time. they are not going away this year. this is a trade. trade as i get. yeah. we're not going to be talking -- >> to be clear, you were short the bonds. and then, ultimately, i think you had an equity short. and part of this call was a bankruptcy call, wasn't it? >> they were in severe distress. but they did raise a lot of debt. and that drive-by equity raise where people were shocked they did that. they bought a lot more time. but i'm not in this for the long term. >> in the after-hour sessions, intel shares falling. we'll talk to an analyst who says there's better buys in the chip sector right now. plus, hershey has a new partnership that could make 3d printed candy a reality. investing in willy wonka. that's next.
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nwas the most watchedage otelevision event ever.s so, what's next? the upcoming winter games from sochi. where every second of nbc universal's coverage will be available on every device. on tv, online or streaming on the nbc sports live extra app. beginning february 6th, experience the winter games everywhere. welcome to what's next. comcast nbcuniversal welcome back to "fast money." i'm josh lipton. the intel conference call now under way. the ceo talking about signs of stabilization in the p.c. client group. we've seen some analysts recently on the street raising
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their ratings on intel, in part based on that belief, that you're going to see stabilization. and reiterating his goal into selling chips into 40 million tablets. that would be a leap for intel. but the ceo seeing a good start to that goal. the cfo, talking about capital return of shareholders. paying 14.5 dividends. and the top line that revenue would be flat in 2014. as for capital, spend $11 billion in 2014. that would be flat. we're going to keep listening to this call and bring you headlines as we get them. melissa, back to you. >> thank you, josh. intel down more than 3%. that brings us to the top trades, kicking it off with intel. joining us is doug friedman. you have a sector perform rating on the stock. you down graded the stock in november.
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>> i moved away from intel because i didn't like what management was doing. they're basically doubling down their investment in the tablet market and burning through the earnings upside that they could have created. we're looking at companies that are looking to remove the discount. one of the names that i think will remove the discount is marvel. that's a name we continue to tell people to buy. especially on pullbacks. we think there's a little headwind in the legal case they're facing. >> it's brian kelly. everybody is concerned that the p.c. sector would be a problem. but looks like there's a server problem here in intel. are you picking that up from the conference call and what you see from these earnings? >> absolutely. the results stated were p.c. exceeded expectations. but it was offset by the server side. and that's a negative mix for the company. they were more profitable on the server side of the business. >> are there other chip companies in your universe
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that's exposed to the server side where you're concerned about their earnings? >> at this point, i wouldn't take that read through. when we look at the memory market, they have really the other side that is heavily exposed to that market. and the memory numbers have been very good. >> doug, we're going to leave it there. doug freedman joining us. thanks for the analysis here. what's the trade here? >> i don't think the quarter was -- >> it's all right. >> it's all right. but the fact that the stocks run 15% in a month and a half, that obviously puts them -- they really didn't do that. there will be a price to buy it. marvel is interesting. they denied some rumors about potential buyout with kkr. that came out over the last couple days. where's there's smoke, there's fire. i think marvell makes me want to look at it now. solar city ending up with gains of 12%, after deutsche bank initiated with a buy rating
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and a $90 price target. >> they were at 81 a couple weeks ago. from 40 to 80. but these guys are an innovator in terms of the financing side of solar. and they're giving retail an opportunity to invest in it. and from a capital markets perspective, what they've done. they announced a plan to launch a web-based platform, that allow individuals and closed-end funds and people who invest in solar. so, as a lot of the solar industry is going on the grid, many of the states by 2015 and 2016, will be on the grid. this is something that people want to invest in. and this is real exposure to the retail side of solar. >> you like it? you buy it? >> i do not buy it here. i like what they're doing. but this stock has doubled. and at a $6 billion market cap, i don't need to buy it tomorrow. >> news out of 3d systems and hershey. the companies taking a page out of willy wonka's playbook.
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>> what's it do? >> can't you see? it makes ever lasting gob stoppers. >> now, the everlasting gobstopper may be coming closer to reality. as hershey and 3d, move to development to produce 3d printed food. >> you need dramamine to trade 3d systems. it's a tough stock to trade here. the stock sold off. both stocks rallied today. very difficult. tim will tell you valuation is crazy. hershey, valuation, 25-times earnings is a little rich. deutsche bank upgraded the name. maybe you get another 6%, 7%. but i think you're in the deep end of the pool. >> what would be the first thing you printed? >> that's a good question. >> a snickers bar. >> a kit-kat, or twix.
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but the shnozberries. we have an index, addition and deletion for the s&p 500. according to the s&p dow jones industrial average, it's going to be effected january 23rd, 2014, is going to include tractor supply company, one of my favorite shops. i love the t-shirts and everything else there. tractor supply will go into the s&p 500. it will replace life technologies, which is the health care company that will be acquired by thermo fisher scientific. so, tractor supply in. life technologies out. all effective january 23rd, 2014. back to you guys. >> that's the stocking stuffers, right, tim? >> i can see dom up in the bushes of connecticut, riding a r roto tiller, ripping up his
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front yard. >> they sell poultry. >> we need a "fast money" field trip. >> dominos a little too much. >> act tractor supply. >> he is right. i know way too much about it. the proof is in the robots. one chart that shows the robots are coming to take our jobs. and much faster than you might have thought. and why former lehman brother ceo brad hintz says not to worry about the numbers so far. so ally bank has a raise your rate cd
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the robots are coming. this was tim's request, by the way. it's all tim seymour. >> i am hoping i can overcome that show for the rest of the show. that's styx. love you. but not that one. >> b.k. has an interesting chart from bank of america that outlined the use of robots in the workforce. this is something we know. but the numbers are staggering. >> how we know it because there's a documentary called "the rise of the machines" that somebody did. >> that sounds brilliant. >> that's what struck my eye here. this was interesting. when we talk about productivity being low here in the u.s., perhaps a change in the economy, this shows you what's going on. manufacturing employment has gone down over the last 10 to 15 years. and machines have just completely taken over. and we know that to be true just from anecdotal evidence. here it is in graph form. >> what is the trade? >> i think the trade is irobot. they're moving into the consumer
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area. and google is your game-changing event. when they bought boston machines, i believe it was, google is one of those companies when they come into a sector, they completely transform the sector. that's why you want to be -- >> why would you buy irobot, which makes the roomba, the vacuum cleaner that goes around by itself. like that. why not by a manufacturer that's going to see the benefits? >> well, so, my bet here is that either somebody else is going to want this robot type of technology, if you will. and/or, when they start to get more to the consumer, the valuations are going to change on this. >> if we could go back to the chart for a second. >> go back to the cat video. >> we can go back to the cat after. but let's look at the chart. we saw that big, structural generational change. but the last few years, we've seen manufacturing jobs increase. simultaneous with a hyperbolic increase in the machines. could we be at a generational bottom of manufacturing jobs
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instead? >> we could be. we're starting to see some of the offshore jobs coming back here. and not only in the u.s., but down in mexico, as well. that's a longer-term thing. we could be more competitive than the rest of the world. you could see it now be correlated. >> it's a big boom for mexico, by the way. one of the reasons i like mexico. and that cat, i'm worried he's going to fall off and sucked up. >> i was allergic to cats. >> backtracking. >> and within five minute frame, he lied about styx. he couldn't stand. and we know he doesn't like cats. >> it's not fair. >> there. that's for you. coming up next, former lehman cfo brat hintz gives us his picks for the big bank.
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of millions of cardholders. he says the company is working with target and law enforcement officials on the data breach. but as of right now, there's been minimal impact on american express, as well as its cardholders. again, the company cfo, jeff campbell, crediting the closed loop for the impact on american express's customers. big bank earnings roll out this week. citi and goldman sachs fell after their results. and black rock moved higher. steve bernstein, equity analyst, and former cfo, joins us on set. >> thank you. >> let's start with citi. $61 price target. you're willing to overlook the big misses they've had compared to what we've seen in the industry so far. >> they're trying to expense their way down to profitability. that's a tough thing to do. on the other hand, it's a bet on asia. asia didn't really show up this time.
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so, you look at citi. the pressure is coming off. and it's cheap. that's the argument for citi. you're seeing -- you're seeing a stock with a management team where a lot of things went wrong. particularly on the trading side, everything they did in the forth quarter didn't seem to work out. >> are you saying this is unique to this management team? >> no. this was sort of a presentation. the way they pitched it, it just didn't -- it sort of fell flat with the institutional investors today. >> expenses were clearly a big issue here. that leverage, if they can get -- >> that's hardly the argument for citi. the argument for citi is it's well-positioned on the international side. asia is picking up. that's where you're going to get it longer-term. and it's an inexpensive stock at this report. >> some of the reports next
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week. u.s. bancorp. you have a $42 price target. i think the stock is in earshot of that. all-time high of a bank. that's somewhat unusual. wells fargo is around there. what are you thinking of usb. but the stock performance speaks for itself. >> if you get rate rises, you get positives. it's a well-run bank. it's one of the things you put away in a portfolio. it's a little of a grandma-type stock. that's the good part, right? not an exciting one. >> love when grandmas are investing. i love citibank. 60% is global revenues. but they may be less than wells fargo or even jpmorgan. talk about net interest margins in the sector. some people are saying higher interest rates on the long end are going to be a big thing. and that sensitivity for some of these guys is really more what people tend to look at than the
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bid fall and the mortgage. >> as the fed begins to pull out, you're going to get the curve doing this. all of the guys brought the duration of their portfolios down. really, what you're talking about here, you know what kind of yield will they be able to get in the new assets coming in. the fact that the yield curve has come up is positive in the sense that the legacy assets rolling off the investment is now, they've taken the pressure off. if we look back six months ago, we were having a problem with n.i.m. going down. now, that's not the case. you see people generate better numbers. like schwab. they knocked the cover off the ball today. you saw n.i.m. pick up at a charles schwab. that's wonderful for that kind of a stock. >> brad, good to see you. brad hintz of bernstein. you don't like the banks. >> you saw me -- i'm short the
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european banks. i'm not short the u.s. banks. u.s. banks to me have run up too much in this earnings season. starting to see the yield per flatten out a bit. that's a tactical type of call. as you come into february, you could see european yields start to go a little higher. that's going to hurt the european banks. ultimately, could hurt the u.s. banks. and i would be worried about citi with the asia exposure. there's a lot going on in the chinese banking industry that's not good. >> can i ask you a question? european banks. deutsche bank has gone from 45 to 53. the basel thing has taken pressure off of them. does that not concern you? >> it doesn't concern me. what i'm concerned about in europe, not with deutsche bank but the peripheral banks. january has been a huge month. rolling over bonds. buying new ones. once you come to february and march, then the reality of the economics and the periphery come in. and people aren't going to want to buy portuguese paper or italian paper. >> you're waiting for citi to
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come in a little more? >> i was long going into it. but i would like to buy more. maybe it shakes out tomorrow and the next day. probably buy more then. time for pops and drops. big movers of the day. >> citi upgraded for the first time in three yearses. rio is best position. stay in that one. >> a drop for united health. down 3%. >> the quarter wasn't good enough to justify the move this stock is seeing, which has been significant. it feels like it wants to trade sub-70. but that's why i would buy it again. >> drop for herbalife, down 10%. karen? >> this was down on the heels of nuskin, to see if it's a pyramid scheme. what a week with beam. hlf down today. >> and a drop for kroger. down 5%. >> big drop here on basically a neutral rating from credit suisse. what was interesting, it had no lift. the stock had no lift today.
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i would be out of this one. >> and we got a pop for husband tossing. >> what? >> had it with your hubby? japanese brides have a solution. each year on january 15th, a city in japan hosts a husband toss. it involves kimono-clad husbands dumped into several feet of snow. dating back to the 18th century. it began as retaliation of outsiders attempting to marry local girls. >> what do you think of that? >> i think it's fine. says the unmarried person. >> i don't think we can throw you too far. you're probably -- >> wife-throwing. >> we did that. we had a wife-carrying contest. >> much different. >> we would be locked up. >> locked up. you do that, you get on tv. >> i won't do it, honey. i will not throw you. >> husband-tossing, okay. as department stores continue to struggle, is it a good sign for the high-end retailers? looking at unusual activity in that sector next.
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retail is making a bit of a breather this year so far. some think there could be more pain to come. mike is at the smart board with today's action. >> we saw a few names. michael kors traded four-times its average volume. fossil, one-time. and coach traded about seven-times its average daily options volume. this is catching my attention. these guys are due to report next week on the 22nd. let's look at this graph and see what happened the last few times they reported. right here. take a look at that. about a 16% decline. here, up about 9%. down 8%. down 8%. that's the last four quarters. this thing has swung around. and the options market is expecting this to move about 9% between now and the end of next week. which way are they expecting it to go? i think the bulls are in trouble because the bears were winning out today. we saw a lot of different bearish bets. the one that stuck out to me was the buyers of the 52 1/2 puts. about $2.5 for that.
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those are making bearish bets that the stock will be below $52.5 by the february expiration. so, this thing really moves around. and the options markets betting is going to go down. >> onboard with bearish in coach. tim? >> this is a company that's going through a transformation. mike is the best on the telestrator. and kudos to '70s hall and oates, not '80s. >> really? i didn't even notice. >> jerk. >> action going on here. michael, thank you. be sure to tune in to options action friday at 5:00 p.m. eastern time. and the five-year anniversary on the show. five years on "options action." >> that's a great show. >> you dvr it every friday. now, let's look at csx down nearly 7%. an earnings miss. the bad news night be coming
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with the recent trouble of transporting across the nation. the latest coming from canadian national railways. i think there's a concern that all of the railroad companies might have to update their cars. >> and there's a meeting today in washington where they talk about maybe slowing the trains down a bit if they're transporting fuel. all these things are costs. csx was down because coal today. but in general, i would want to probably be short in the rails here. and look at something like a greenbrier, gbx. got a new deal today. but if they do have to retrofit the railcars, gbx is going to be a beneficiary. >> trinity industries. that was an all-time high. trn. and they report in february. >> february. >> csu, a lot of people are playing for their mexico exposure. look at union pacific, which has just as much and ends cheaper. australia just wrapped its first year for full-time job losses since 1992. coming up, the ambassador takes us down under with his trade.
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on ugly breakdown on the aussie dollar. this after a dismal jobs report boosted speculation that the central bank could cut interest rates once again. >> this has been the call. and the aussie break through key levels around 88.75. it's been holding for a year and a half and dancing there. australia has major problems in their economy because of china and what's been happening for the last six to nine months. the market has been pricing in significant policy easing. that's something that i think continues to go weaker. in other words, i think 84.5 is a seven-year low, is where you're going to get into 2014. and the big message here is that people that wanted to see the dollar going higher, it is going higher. the u.s. dollar is going higher against the canadian, the aussie, the yen. and it's not going higher against the euro. and this is a trade that a lot of people had been waiting for. and it's playing out before your very eyes. stay short the aussie.
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stay short the canadian dollar. and be long the euro. >> i'm short the aussie and short the canadian. i'm with tim on this. these are the global data points that concern me when i talk about the global economy slowing, i look at this. the commodity supercycle is over. but when you see canadian unemployment or jobs drop by 42,000. that would be in the u.s., a loss of 420,000 jobs. so, these are big, big drops that are going on. and i think it's endemic of what's going on in the global commerce. >> you tweeted, we trade it. let's get our tweets. this one is for guy. >> go. >> t-mobile has been making waves in the wireless space and doubled since may. should i get in or wait and see? >> if you understand what you're getting into. you're not buying on valuation. you're buying on hopes that somebody is going to gobble these guys up. i'm not saying it's going to happen. that's been the story here. if you believe that to be the case, yeah. it's interesting. understanding if that doesn't happen, as easily as this stock went from 16 to 32 or whatever could easily go back down to 25.
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just, you know, be careful. understand why you're buying the stock. how's that? >> as with all stocks. >> more so here. >> more so here. >> in my opinion. >> trade school. listen to that. post it. >> nice. >> post that. >> there we go. karen, this is for you. what happened to under armour? >> nothing really happened. it peaked at 89, which was crazy. now, it's 82, which is still crazy. the multiple is ridiculous. i think way more downside to go than upside. i wouldn't chase hoping to get back to 89. it is expensive here. great company. way too expensive. >> you like the space because you're in -- >> i like the space. you look at finish line. foot locker is trading at 13-times. under armour, 57-times? that's too big of a divergence. >> b.k., what's the best way to play a rise in natural gas? west port innovations? >> not so much for a rise in natural gas.
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you're making the bet on transportation and natural gas. if you want natural gas, go ung. but only for a short period of time. you have a roll yield problem. the other way to play it if you just want a stock, apache, apa, i love that. >> and transporting, if natural gas goes higher, that works against the likes of a transporter. >> in natural gas is higher on a sustained period of time, people are going to be converting less to natural gas vehicles. that doesn't mean west port's not a bad stock. it's not the best way to get exposure. >> tim? >> yes. >> question about the turkey etf and garanti bank. >> there's been a political -- i don't want to call it crisis. but a lot of tension today. they sacked 41 judiciaries. they have now gotten control of the judiciary. and i think this continues. the tur around 45 1/2, where we're trading is up against significant support. i think turkey is one of the
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best emerging markets have a company-specific. a bottom-up. garanti is the best in the emerging markets. they're a well-run bank. i would be playing here. turkey at 8 1/2-times is something that's extremely cheap on a three-year basis. but the politics are going to be messy. the headlines are going to be ugly. you don't want to be trading this for three weeks. it could be nastier. >> is garanti -- >> you can look it up. it trades with significant volume. tkgby. you can play it. also, the tur, is 35% turkish banks. coming up on "mad money" looking for a play to fight identity theft after the target data breach. cramer is talking to the ceo of lifelock. your first move tomorrow when we come right back. ♪
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we had that analyst from jpmorg jpmorgan, stepped in and upgraded the stock. would you step in and buy? >> you have to give it a couple of days. it gives a little back. how much is a little? probably another 3% or 4% from here. what does that put it down? 4 1/2. that's interesting to me. 25.40, i'd take a pass. if you have that risk tolerance, it's not a big deal. >> and you like tsm? >> i like tsm much better. that was a technical call. 17 seemed to be smart. >> time for the final trade. tim seymour? >> bhp is best of breed. >> guy adami liked tlt earlier this week. i like it today. >> copycat. >> i'm sticking with citi. i like it if it comes in tomorrow or monday. i'm going to buy them. >> guy? >> timmy was spouting garbage about cats and styx.
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>> i'm allergic. >> garbage. public services. a nice double-short term. rsg for a trade. >> i'm melissa lee. thanks for watching. we'll see you tomorrow at 5:00 for more "fast." "mad money" starts right now. m with jim cramer starts right now. >> my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hey i'm cramer, i'm trying to save a little money. call me. few groups matter as much to the stock market as the rea tail sector. the visibility, the universal appeal of the group, everyone shops in this country. can impact the entire
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