>> karen? >> waiting to buy more cdf. now's the time. >> to tim's point, take profits in nuance. today's the day to get out on the long side. >> thank you for watching. long. >> if you're traveling home in the northeast, be careful. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer! welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to entertain you, but to educate you, so call me. on a day where the dow sank and the nasdaq advanced 10.06%, it's worth noting we're only two full weeks into 2014 and people are already tracing out the major

bullish themes for the year. themes that big players are betting on, as though they're done deals. >> buy, buy, buy. >> this kind of thinking isn't unusual at the beginning of the year, as we see what resonates and what doesn't. so without further ado, let me tell you the ten themes i'm seeing already. first the eight positives and then the two negatives. 2014 is looking like another year where aerospace is ascendant. while we know from alcoa, who produces up to 3 million fasteners per plane, and general electric, the central thesis is that the commerce are healthy. those customers ranging from the airlines to an exceptional crop of middle east orders are forcing the bears to rethink their negativity. we know from delta's results this morning that the airlines are flush. we want to learn more when united technologies reports tomorrow. i think we'll be pleasantly surprised with the aircraft number. that's what matters to me.

second positive theme for 2014, nonresidential construction may finally be increasing here in america. this gigantic generator of jobs has basically been still warm since the great recession. it's really the lone area of the economy that's been holding us back, because nonresidential construction meets everything from big financing, great for banks, to robust white collar companies that are running out of space, to a definitive end to the glut of office towers that were built in response to the early 2000 boom. we're getting this nonresidential construction theme from alcoa, as well as a host of banks that have already reported, and again, united technologies with its huge heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning business, as well as its elevator segment, won't be able to tell us much more tomorrow and possibly cinch the theme for 2013. united rentals and manitowoc are both reflecting this is happening. that's the crane company. the third positive theme for the year, it's the end of the decline in personal computers. lost in the shuffle of intel's

results, which were widely received as being disappointing, was a reluctance to call the end of the personal computer downfall. but the business mix puts a lie to that pessimism, and it's currently possible that the adoption of the latest windows iteration might be arresting this long-term decline. isn't it interesting to see that micron and seagate actually advanced and western digital held in pretty well too. we got a bunch of upgrades and price target bumps again today because of this bottoming process. by the way, this is a thesis that is also buoying hewlett-packard. and what dell has been telling people behind the scenes. remember, ibm has no pc businesses and that's one of the weaknesses after the bell. also no revenue growth, no cash flow, no cash flow expansion. fourth positive theme for 2014, more mergers and acquisitions than last year. of course, other than a couple of very large deals, notably heinz and verizon buying the rest of verizon wireless from vodafone, m&a was a bust last year. i know, because i read the deal every day and it looked mighty thin.

cyberthin. however, this year, we are already having a potential bidding war for time warner cable. a reminder of the time when foreign companies wanted more exposure to a growing u.s. market. they could be precursors. this m&a theme could help investment bankers like goldman sachs. being number five for the new year, the long-standing troubles with the banks are now winding down, and being replaced with a rewarding focus on net interest margins. for two years, as mortgages made a comeback, the bank stocks were duds. people didn't want that, the analysts kept waiting for the far more lucrative net interest margin, with banks making your deposits rise. this was the quarter it finally happened. and it's looking mighty joyous. look at those charts, particularly because of the rather remarkable increases in deposits. that plus the peaking of prosecutions and put backs from the government-sponsored enterprises, is a major reason why bank of america is showing such a peppy move. by the way, i think this run is

still in its fantasy. sixth for 2014, the return of europe to the fold of growth. so many companies that are based here in the u.s. expanded rapidly in new york during the period of eurozone growth. the result was a huge drag on earnings during the european great recession. dramatic cutbacks in labor forces. now, as we're hearing from alcoa, ppg last week, general motors, ford, and general electric business has bottomed in europe. and it's beginning to produce nape sent positive year over year comparisons that could cost major averages to rally high as we get earnings levels for the first time. after dramatic cuts in staff, it only takes a little lift in sales to produce that effect. and it's only being talked about as a chief reason to own the industrials during earnings season. you know they've been on fire. it's called earnings leverage, people. get used to that term. positive theme number seven is spending on teleco equipment. we've seen that in the burge

burgeoning orders for siena and f5. we've seen it coveted in the activist grab on juniper, something that i wouldn't believe would be occurring if there hadn't been a change in the order rate. a potential merger between sprint that's been trading money like crazy, as ceo dan hesse promised with, and teammobile may be the only stumbling block to the floodgate of teleco spending. but we did see a convincing big boost in verizon's capital expenditures this morning, in their release, that bolsters this thesis in a major way. better numbers from nuance tonight will stoke the teleco flames further. the eighth and last positive for 2013, the actual beginning of our rising natural gas glut as a creator of secondary chemical jobs. we're witnessing the chemical companies get some lift, as the price of their main feedstock stays low, and many are committed to projects in the northeast subpoena unlike what you may have read on this issue, it's been more fantasy than fact, but it might flip this year. dow chemical, the target of activism welcome dan loeb is take advantage of the cheapest

natural gas, just not fast enough for activist loeb to do so. to please him. more on activism later in the show. however, the glut of natural gas also represents one of the big negative themes that come to the fore in 2013. the glut stems from oil drilling. as the amount of oil being produced continues to astound the skeptics. and the independent oil stocks have been such stars for so long. schlumberger's otherwise outstanding quarter confirmed this trend, as north american jewelry is one of the dark spots for the period. although, the second disaster here, coal. as scene from the weak domestic consumption reflected in csx's numbers. another step down in the industry at the hands of an aggressive epa and cheap natural gas. by the way, only cabot oil and gas or cob seems to be capitalizing off the extremely cold weather, and that's because it pipes its natural gas from the marcellus shale in

pennsylvania to the gnat gas star in northeast. one last negative thing for the 2014. the bizarre disappearance of the mall shopper. the combination of the shocking shift to web shopping in the final days of the holiday season and the decline in shopping at the mall has been causing a plethora of retail shortfalls that is almost permanent in nature. i think we'll hear more about this negative secular trend when he hear starbucks talk very soon. okay, so here's the bottom line. these ten themes can be the basis of some serious potential outperformance in 2014. aerospace, going to have to start thinking boeing. nonresidential construction, a host of different companies. pc rebound, the driest, primarily, m&a activity, that could be the bankers. banks beyond trouble. these are all significant. europe growing again, how many companies will start talking positive about europe this quarter. many. telecom spending, not being cut back anymore. natural gas, well, there's too much of it, but it's also good for some companies. the oil glut, struggling,

struggling, struggling domestic producers, and the empty moles, who would have thought of it. how quickly you can make bets based on these themes the before they become obviously to the naked eye as earnings season gets into high gear. nothing commonplace will ever make you money. remember, only slightly more than 10% of companies have reported so far. i think you have to invest in these themes now before they happen without you. something that could cause you to fall behind for the rest of the year. that said, these don't trump the longer term themes i call out o as multi-year investments, but they're developing into potent forces in the actions so far in this still very young year. can we get elizabeth in florida, please? elizabeth? >> hey, jim, happy new year and thank you for everything you do. >> oh, you're very kind. thank you. >> caller: well, thank goodness it appears that the flamiddle cs is slowly improving. with that being said, do you see the recent pullback of

pricemarpricemart a buying opportunity? >> i'm so circumspect on anything that is retail that i'm going to have to say, not yet. particularly because i'm going back and forth on a lot of people. even costco, one of my absolute favorites, people are running lukewarm on. let's be careful here. let's go to brandon in colorado here, brandon? >> caller: hey, jim, boo-yah. boo-yah to you. go broncos. i was calling to see what young about sell dak. it's been up and down quite a bit. it hit a peak in october and dropped real low and started to go back. what is your position on it? >> what i was hoping is that people would scale back and take some profits, but not leave it entirely, because we did like the story. one of the things i've been noticing today in particular was that biotech remains strong, okay? it's not a new trend, it's just a continuation of an old trend. it's biogen leading the charge these days. on down days like today, you need to be looking for opportunities where you can find them. i'm talking about themes for

2014. they are making their minds up now, people, about where to place their bets. i need you in before those bets are made. "mad money" will be right back. >> coming up, secret ingredient? chicken, biscuits, and a plan to double its restaurant footprint in the u.s. does popeyes have the right recipe for a soaring stock price? cramer talks to the ceo an fresh off today's big announcement from the company. and later, follow the money? when wall street big wigs pay special attention to a stock, investors tune in. but when big money moves into an investment you own, how do you play it? cramer's got the move. plus, love logistics? it's been a bumpy road for u.p.s. after holiday mishaps. will this bitter blizzard be the next blow? or is it finally turning a corner. cramer's tracking what ground can do for you, just ahead. all coming up on "mad money." [ male announcer ] the wright brothers started in a garage.

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what's happening with the company formerly known as asc enterprises, the parent company of popeyes has now changed its name to popeyes louisiana kitchen, and its ticker to plki, easy to remember, okay? there's more going on here than just a name change. i've been a big fan of this company, which has 2,225 locations ever since i first recommended it roughly a year and a half ago, back in august of 2012. since then, the stock's gave me a terrific 75% gain, as they've added new units and remodeling the existing ones. i'm such a believer in this company and its leadership, that i named its ceo one of miss bankable 21 in "get rich carefully," one of the 21

executives i believe you can count on to consistently create value for shareholders over the long haul. so when popeyes came out at the big consumer conference in orlando and preannounced of same-store sales of just 0.8%, i was somewhat taken aback, especially in the wake of the most recent quarter, and in november they gave guidance of what wall street considered disappointing. we know this has been a challenging environment, but when the stock's down, i think it's worth remembering that popeyes still has tremendous growth, long-term. the company could triple its size to 6,000 locations before it runs out of room to expand. don't take a short-term perspective. but also, don't take it from me. let's check in with the bankable cheryl bachelor, the newly renamed popeyes lz kitchen, and see where her company's headed. welcome back to "mad money". >> good to see you. >> good to see you, cheryl. everyone's having a hard time right now and i know i'm so used to you beating everyone, and you still may be beating everyone, because other people are doing worse. but is it of concern that you have some same-store sales

numbers that are not up to what i'm used to from you? >> you know, our quarter was up just short of 1%. the traffic in qsr slowed dramatically in the fourth quarter, when the government shut down, so did consumer sentiment. traffic was negative five for the quarter. what i look at is market share. you've heard me say this before. we beat chicken qsr and beat qsr. >> now, there were also some structural issues. you opened a bunch of stores in some areas and there was cannibalizati cannibalization. >> in indianapolis, in our company store numbers, we're opening stores rapidly on a total base. there is some cannibalization. >> nothing's changed in terms of when we visited your newly remodeled store out in brooklyn, the numbers were better. as you continue to remodel, you're still getting that uptick, right? >> we're getting great uptick. we finished 60% of our system, about 1,100 restaurants are done as of the end of last year and 3 to 4% uptick in sales. >> sometimes i wonder if you're

thinking a little more dominos like with popeyes. dominos had consistently good united states, but international really took off. when i look at the footprint internationally, it seems like the numbers there just continue to be excellent. >> yes, we continue to have lots of opportunity internationally. i just came home from lima, peru, the night before last, where we built 12 restaurants in the last 18 months. people lined up to get in and have those famous red beans and rice and our spicy chicken. international remains a huge opportunity. >> when you do the nationwide advertising that we've all now seen, what has that done to different areas that did not get that kind of carpet? >> it's been a powerful precursor to our openings. so this past year, we've opened 13 restaurants in minnesota. we didn't have but one restaurant there. but they've been looking at our advertising and being hungry for our food for five years now. so they were waiting in line when we got there. >> is there a possibility that the downtick may be that you didn't come up with something new that month, and that i've become used to very exciting revamp of menu, kind of like a

treasure hunt each time. has that slowed down? >> well, you know, innovation is critical to getting guests to come more often. right now our bayou buffalo wicked chicken is in the restaurants and our customers are loving that. i agree, we've got to stay with a full pipeline of good, innovative new products and we intend to do that. >> what i thought was interesting in your signature discussion at the conference was that it's only new orleans that you think is oversaturated. almost everyone else could use many more popeyes. >> that's right. certainly new york, chicago, los angeles, many more opportunities. >> what's going on with the consumer here? i mean, we seem to have gotten -- we get some good numbers in employment, and we get some setbacks with the government shutdown. then we get crazy weather, like today, so it's hard for me to figure out. are you seeing anything that is not stop/start consumer, given the fact that employment's gotten a little better? >> i agree, employment's gotten a little better, but i think confidence is the thing that's fantastics our business.

and the consumer just isn't zealot confident yet about the future. so the sooner we can get more robust future expectations, i think the better. >> and does that also come into play when you try to develop franchises? >> it does. thankfully, our economics are so good comparatively, we're having no issues drawing people to the franchise, and we opened 194 units last year, which was a record in our history. and they're opening up very high volumes with great returns. >> are you getting any pushback on the idea that we're looking at this delicious fried food, but it is fried, and there's another generation coming up, and they're not as quick to embrace fried food, as others. >> well, this generation loves flavorful food, and so they're attracted to our great flavors. and we do offer what we call a naked tender, which is a spiced tender, that a lot of the younger generation prefers tenders over bone-in chicken. so i want to bring our customer the food that they enjoy most. and we'll continue to be doing that. >> one last question, because i regard you as a great leader. you're a great business leader and you also have a lot of sense

of what can go right in america. is the american dream alive still? i hear confidence, i hear people maybe afraid to take the leap, but you've got people working in your kitchens right now, who three, four, five years from now may actually own their own store. can that still come true? >> absolutely. i think that's the positive future-looking thing we have to focus on. every day, we bring new people into the front part of our restaurants. 80% end up as our assistants and managers, and then they become owners, and that is the original american dream. >> and you like the fact that now -- you know i pushed you for a long time to call it popeyes, and finally -- >> finally, i took your advice. >> i wish -- you always said that something good could happen. i think it's going to help brand identity. >> i do too. >> i know you don't help any for the stock, but it will get our viewers to know popeyes. >> easier to find. we're excited to have people join us. >> excellent, cheryl. thanks for coming on the show and being bankable and making our viewers so much.

that's cheryl batchelder. i may share some with the staff, but probably not. stay with krairp. coming up, follow the money. when wall street big wigs pay special attention to a stock, investors tune in. but when big money moves into an investment you own, how do you play it? cramer's got the move. i'm beth...

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so you can. i'm talking about the addition of nelson peltz to the board of monkalese. people who sold, they should have their heads examined. as part of the examination for get rich carefully," we thought to see if you could find money piggybacking. in every case, if you bought after the moves were announced, you underperformed the s&p 500 and bench mark for all investors. that is, in every case, but one. nelson peltz. if you piggybacked off of peltz, you consistently beat the s&p. why is that? i think it's because when nelson peltz takes a substantial

position in a company, he treats it if it's his own business. he has 30 years of history making money for all people. figure it bested the s&p by a mile. it was far better than every other money manager i follow, particularly considering it has $9 billion under management. among luiz a worldwide powerhouse with dentine, that's lu, nabisco, nila. my own personal favorite, philly cream cheese, trident, triscuits and wheat thins as undermanaged, not getting the return it should, should get, given the superior breadth of the portfolio and the strength around the globe. i know peltz believes that the company's operating room, right now at about 12%, can rise to 16% with stronger execution. that would be something huge for shareholders. a change that would make it inconceivable that the stock would stay down at that 34 level for long. obviously, the market's either more skeptical or hoping for some sort of different, less-peaceful outcome.

perhaps where peltz was able to put the company into play. that's nonsense. peltz wants a great return over the long haul, because he knows that's how the biggest money can be made. and i think you can make that money with him, if you buy not sell mongalese now that he's a board member. let's start with heinz, rallied when he joined the board, where it was taken over a little bit less than a year ago by warren buffett. that's a 75% return versus the 15% gain that the s&p 500 gave you during that same period. during the time that peltz served on the board, heinz accelerated its revenue growth and improved its margins more than most food companies, in part because of innovation. where did he get some of these ideas for innovation. when i asked bill johnson about him at the university of texas college show, he credited board member peltz with some tremendous ideas. he said peltz had extremely positive and constructive input while he was on the board. i bet he could have done the same thing with mongalese.

consider wendy's, a stock we've been behind for a long time because of peltz' influence. and brolick has been leading a turnaround that's extraordinary in its success. as anybody who's been to a wendy's lately can tell you. how would you have done buying wendy's, since peltz got them in to make wholesale changes? how about up 97%, versus a 47% gain for the s&p. as the company is still in the midst of a wholesale revamp, that includes fireplaces and televisions in its nicely refigured stores. those are the two most vocal and i would say visible peltz initiatives, but take a look at the great industrial company, ingersoll rand, ir, with its heating, ventilation, air-conditioning, and industrial technology solutions. since peltz got involved, the stock has gone from $35 to $62, 77% gain versus a 31% run for the s&p over the same period. or how about leg mason, the venerable financial firm that had fallen on hard times.

prevented peltz from adding more shares expired in late 2012, the stock has rallied 75%, 15% gain for the s&p 500 during that same period. both ingersoll rand and mason advanced in part because of constructive input from peltz. we also know that dupont has advanced substantially since peltz acknowledged his involvement with dupont shares at cnbc's delivery alpha conference last summer, in part because the company agreed with a suggestion he had to separate its commodity chemical business from its proprietary technologies business. the company may not have needed peltz's prompting. as ceo alan coleman said on our show, he just wanted to get the timing right. so why don't we just agree that great minds think alike. what dupont did isn't that much different, by the way, than what activist dan loeb would like to do at dow chemical, where just this morning, we learned that he's now pressing dow to split into a commodity company, a proprietary chemical company, to bring out something i wholeheartedly favor for that dramatically underperforming chemical company.

that's the course that chuck bunch, and ppg has been among the best performers of all stocks that i follow. he's a bankable 21 member from "get rich carefully." i'm not sure about the short-term of what happens at mongalese. there was a lot of hot betting in the name, betting that peltz would convince pepsico to split and get the frito lays snack business to purchase mongalese. i think the idea that peltz is somehow done with his involvement in pepsico is fanciful. i know he believes that pepsico should be broken into snacks and vegetables. knewy is one of my bankable 21 and i believe she'll find ways to bring out value herself. and if she adopts peltz's ways, so be it. so don't expect anything to happen instantly here. just as we see in so many beginnings of the year, the market craves financials, techs, and industrials. that's okay, because companies like mongalese with these great brands, they don't go out of

style for long, do they? still, though, if peltz is right, and i believe he is, for certain, because of that amazing track record i mentioned, i think you'll see the stock go up over time as he helps shuffle portfolio brand, slice overhead, and make the same kind of suggestions that helped heinz bring out value. peltz does a ton of work on the benchmarking of companies. how to improve the productivity per employee and per plant. he doesn't suffer any imperial ceo trappings gladly, and he can be insistent on consistent improvement. it took wendys longer to turn around than i know he would have liked, and it required long-term patience, which peltz has, even if it hurts short-term results. i think that bodes very well for mongalese shareholders too. it wouldn't hurt if he could prevail in getting a better name for the company. because as he pointed out, mongalese does sound like a disease you don't want to catch. if you want to come up with a verb for hedge fund activism

that is the same resonance of google, you should say that something's being peltzed. right now mongalese is being peltzed and the winners will be the shareholders that are along for the ride. can i go to john in mississippi, please? john? >> caller: hey, jim. >> hey, john? >> caller: i know that carl icahn has an interest in this company, so what are your thoughts about nuance? >> nuance is interesting, because it reported this evening and it looks to be better than expected and it's trading higher. one of the things that i think will be the hallmark of the last few years of the show, i am very reluctant to opine until i listen to the conference call. nuance is a very controversial company. my friend, herb greenberg, has always tried to fill me in on what's right and what's wrong at the company. i've got to do more work before i pronounce nuance correct. call webster's dictionary right now, i've got a new word. i want to replace mongalese from the dictionary and insert peltzed! stay with cramer.

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it is time, it is time for the "lightning round" on cramer's "mad money." what's that all about? rapid-fire calls, i don't know the name of the callers, the questions, when i play this sound, then the "lightning round" is over. are you ready, skee-daddy! it is time for the "lightning round" on cramer's "mad money." i'll start with lisa in new york. lisa! >> caller: yes, cramer, long island, suffolk county. how are you? >> i'm all over that region. what's going on, lisa? >> talk to me, kmp, kinder morgan? >> it's fine. rich kinder is totally bankable. i say stay long. can i go to michael in florida,

please? michael? >> caller: hey, jim, it's mike from jupiter, florida. i want to know your take of bp. >> i think bp is incredibly cheap. i don't believe that there's going to be anymore huge charges, because of the lawsuits. look at this stock. it is the best performer of the large cap oils. i reiterate, from the time when the ceo was on here, around 42, 43, this is the one to buy, of the majors. can i go to peter in new jersey. peter? >> hey, boo-yah, jim. >> boo-yah, peter. >> caller: a big thank you for everything you do for us retailers from out here in new jerseys and everywhere else. my stock is byron mbiomarin. >> it's not doing as well at gile gilead, they have broader market portfolios, that's what the market wants. but i think biomarin will have a good year. by the way, jazz pharma and isis are extraordinary, doing some more work on those.

again, can i go to steve in pennsylvania, please? steve? >> caller: jim, a shout-out to any grandkids. what is your feeling on trinity industries? >> trinity industries is the stock that got away from me. i wanted to do a piece on trinity after the most recent tragic rail -- the incredible rail wrecks. why? because you'll have to have new tankers. and trinity is the company that does that. but the stock got away. i've missed it. and i'm not going to chase it at the 52-week high. can i go to joe in north dakota, please, joe? >> caller: a big north dakota energy boo-yah to you. >> nothing like the bakken boo-yah. >> caller: need an opinion on chemical court. >> it is the only uranium play that's working. and like frooefs stothe previou didn't believe in the uranium story. i was wrong. the stock's going up without me. and that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the "lightning round"!

>> announcer: the "lightning round" is sponsored by td ameritrade. coming up, mighty metal? aluminum producer alcoa's on a tear, but is the story solid or could these gains soon melt away. cramer checks the technicals to find out. when he goes off the charts. what if a small companyoun] became big business overnight? ♪ like, really big... then expanded? ♪ or their new product tanked? ♪ or not? what if they embrace new technology instead? ♪ imagine a company's future with the future of trading. company profile. a research tool on thinkorswim. from td ameritrade.

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for those of you who can't believe your eyes when you laoo at this incredible run in alcoa, a stock that's giving you an amazing move, rallying from $10 to $13.12 for a 20% gain, i think it's worth taking a closer look at what's going on here. because i'm not alone in believing this stock could have a lot more upside. first of all, i want to point out that i've been making the fundamental case for alcoa for some time now. the gigantic aluminum company led by klaus kleinfeld has been making all the right moves. alcoa has been growing its higher value-added margin businesses, where it makes aluminum fasteners for airplanes, and it's been shutting down its more expensive facilities in order to become a lower cost premium producer. just last week, they shut down

its facility in messina, new york, that produced 85,000 tons of high cost of aaluminum per year. and klaus has been preaching the idea of lightweighting, this notion that cars and trucks are using more aluminum, because it's so much lighter than steel, but basically just as touch. that means the more aluminum you use, the more gas mileage you can get out of a given vehicle. we know that they've totally embraced the concept. but i can see how the magnificent rally in the stock over the last week could be pretty confusing to you. remember back on january 9th, alcoa reported what it first claimed to be a disappointing quarter. the company missed wall street's earnings estimates and then it got pancaked. but if you actually bothered to listen to the conference call, as i tell you in "get rich carefully," alcoa has one of the most important conference calls out there, because it has exposure in so many different industries. if you listened to that call, you heard a terrific story. the one i just told you about,

lightweighting, closing down high-cost aluminum facilities and doing more value-added business. don't forget, it was one of the best-performing stocks in the s&p in the fourth quarter. that said, if you really want to get your head around mr. alcoa's wild ride, there's one more thing you need to know about the stock. it has been absolutely hated for ages. and when a hated stock suddenly makes good, then the sky's the limit, people, as analysts are dragged quicking a eged kicking into changing their minds. just today, alcoa caught an upgrade from the long-term bear, jpmorgan. they're saying the aluminum market, which has been awful for ages, could actually be much stronger than we think. and i think this upgrade could be the first of many. so, how high can alcoa go. in "get rich carefully," you can make yourself a better investor, by augmenting yourself by understanding the charts of technical analysis. and when a despised stock like alcoa has a massive breakout to the upside, you want to consult the technicals to see if it could have even more room to

run. that's why we're going off the charts with the help of ed ponzi, as well as my colleague at realmoney.com. we want to see where alcoa's headed. becau well, take a look, because it is rather amazing. he uses a football analogy to describe what you're about to see. this is like a moment where the quarterback takes the snap and hands the ball to the running back, who then disappears into a mass of humanity at the line of scrimmage. your expectations are low. the running back probably only gets gains one or two yards, maybe caught at the line of scrimmage. but suddenly, the running back emerges from the crowd, beast mode, also known as marchon lynch, and gallups in the open field running to daylight. his opponents in desperate, and of course, futile pursuit, okay? it's an incredibly exciting moment when a seemingly trapped

player. it's just as exciting when we see the same thing in the stock market. that's exactly what's going on here. alcoa has finally broken free. it is running to daylight. and all the traders caught flat footed find themselves chasing it. pontsy points out that the stock has been trapped in an area of congestion for 18 months. basically, alcoa was stuck, trading sidesways between $7.70 and $10. the technical term is actually building a base. and for 18 long months, alcoa has built one heck of a base here. according to pontsy, the longer the base, the bigger the move once the stock finally breaks out. alcoa broke out at over $10, and it has been roaring ever since with that little pit stop at one of those, you know, i don't know which one, alexander hamill stop, the vince lombardi stop or one of those poets. but there's more to this story of a simple breakout.

check out this version of the daily chart with a bunch of added indicators. if pontsy's view, this chart is screaming that alcoa is on fire. first of all, the moving averages are now align eed themselves into the proper order for an uptread. meaning the short-term averages are all above the longer term ones, which indicates the stock is trending in the right direction. alcoa's ten-day, as represented by the blue, okay? look at these. these are all flipping, okay? is above its 28-day moving average, which is above its 50-day moving average, which in turn is above its 200-day moving average. this is remarkable. for a chartist like pontsy, that is a very bullish development. you always want the shorter leading the longer. it's ideal. look at that. all above the 200. second, there's the moving average convergence to vergence indicator, before they happen. pontsy points out that alcoa's mac-d line flashed a buy symbol

just last friday. that's for the first time in a month. that's where the plaque line crosses above the blue one. and as i tell yo uh in get rich carefully, we've had a lot of success with these mac-d buy signals, terrific rallies in underlying stocks over the last five years. i believe this. i believe that when i see it. third thing you should notice in the chart is the volume. remember, i always say that volume is like a polygraph when it comes to reading the charts. high volume means a move is telling the truth. low volume means it could be deceiving you. pontsy knows when alcoa's stock broke out last week, the volume kept increasing too. and today the stock rallied hard on its highest volume in four years. that suggests that buyers are feeling aggressive, even though it's one of the biggest of the s&p, which tells pontsy that the current run is likely to continue for some time. how much higher can alcoa go. take a gander at the weekly chart. because alcoa was compressed into such a tight area for so long, there's no real ceiling of resistance, anywhere near the current levels.

to go back to football. pontsy says, it's as if the defense called a blitz, the running back squirted through the line with the bawl, and now he's off to the races. think beast mode, taking the ball from the 20 to the goal line. in other words, pontsy thinks the stock has a lot more upside. but how much more? if you consider where alcoa stalled out in 2010 and 2011, pontsy believes the next meaningful area of congestion begins at around 16. and because there's basically a chart vacuum between where alcoa is now and pontsy's 16-day target, he thinks the stock can soar to that level. that's 32% higher than where it is now. here's the bottom line, nobody likes to chase a stock that's been roaring higher nonstop. but this incredible move in alcoa got started last week. and both of our interpretations indicate that the stock has much more room to run. in short, i think alcoa's still a buy, especially if we get a mild pullback. stick with cramer. coming up, love logistics?

it's been a bumpy road for u.p.s. after holiday mishaps. will this bitter blizzard be the next blow, or is it finally turning a corner? cramer's tracking what brown can do for you, just ahead. ♪

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save up to 10% just for combining your auto and home insurance. call liberty mutual insurance at... [ thump ] to speak with an insurance expert and ask about all the personalized savings available for when you get married, move into a new house, or add a car to your policy. personalized coverage and savings. all the things humans need to make our world a little less imperfect. call... and ask about all the ways you could save. liberty mutual insurance. responsibility. what's your policy? if you want to be a good investor, you need to be able to recognize patterns. when i wrote "get rich carefully," i did some serious homework, analyzing all the trades made by my charitable

trust over the previous five years, and spotted previous mistakes and picked up on profitable patterns using the benefit of hindsight. this exercise was an educational gold mine, which is why i've got a whole chapter in there of lessons learned from my charitable trust. but there's one lesson in particular that comes to mind right now. quote, not all estimate cuts are ar b harbingers of bad things to come. some signal investable bottoms. i think we got one today, with u.p.s. a company that got more business and it could handle, therefore miss the quarterly estimate by a mile. united parcel what has i call a high-quality problem. a closed reading of the release, flagging the preannouncement, shows unequivocably that the real issue was a real mistake from a company that doesn't make many. they didn't there would be nearly as much business as there would be before the christmas holiday. to quote that release, on december 23rd, u.p.s. delivered more than 31 million packages, the most ever, and 13% over the prior year peak day. this year's highest delivery day

occurred six days later than expected, and was 7.5% greater than planned, end quote. a perusal of the u.p.s. website tells you all you need to know about what happens. on december 16th of last year, u.p.s. issued a release entitled, quote, u.p.s. kicks off peak week, where the company said, quote, driven by the growth in ecommerce, u.p.s. expects to pick up more than 34 million packages today, monday, december 16th, and expects to deliver 29 million globally on december 17th, a record for a single day. but the record day didn't come on the 17th. it was nearly a week later, on the 23rd, and when it did come, it far exceeded united parcel's expectations. call it peak two weeks. because of that, u.p.s. had to add 20,000 more temporary employees than they planned on having, and i'm sure those don't come cheap given the close proximity to christmas. that meant the analysts had to

slash their analysts dramatically, that's big labor costs, which caused the stock to get hammered in early morning trading last friday. however, u.p.s. was able to rebound from down more than a couple of -- more than three bucks last week, still hasn't touched that low today, and it's a remarkable performance, given the high-profile nature of the disappointment. that's because i believe this negative preannouncement is the beginning of something new and different and, yes, special for united parcel. first of all, u.p.s. now knows it has an expanded holiday season. no doubt in part because of amazon's guaranteed two-day delivery. but also because of the secular shift away from the mall traffic and buying things online. that's good news, not bad news. secondly, know that u.p.s. will never be caught unawares again. it probably recognizes that it needs to prepare for that week, which judging by the sea change in shopping habits might turn out to be the new peak shipping week next year. it's shopping at u.p.s., which knows more about logistics didn't see this coming. but when you consider the weakness in the retailers, this was one of the most seismic shifts in shopping patterns

ever. a beast of a change that no one, and i mean no one, saw coming. third and perhaps most important, right now u.p.s. can start building in a nifty surcharge for this period, so they can more than cover the cost of the additional workers. who wouldn't buy back from buying presents online. it's natural to expect one, and it could prove to be a major boon to the company's 2013 earnings and year over year comparisons could be terrific. when i wrote about how estimate cuts could mark a bottom in "get rich carefully," i was talking about sometimes estimate cuts have so telegraphed, sometimes the weakness cuts could be at the end so they step up and buy. i think u.p.s. has proven without a doubt, this was a one-time hit. you can expect numbers to go up, not down. that's why u.p.s. is a buy, not a sell. especially after today's pullback. it's why i think the stock could settle in here and bottom, as people realize that the worst is over, just one trading day after the company preannounced it was overwhelmed with business. hey, you know what, that's a

high-quality problem that i bet every company in the s&p 500 wishes it had. [ male announcer ] this is the story

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what can i say? ibm was truly the first disappointing quarter of 2014. cash flow, revenue growth, no, missing. i would like to say there's always a bull market somewhere, i promise to try to find it just for you here a blockbuster report shows that well under half of the 2 million people who have enrolled on the obamacare exchanges were actually insured beforehand. in fact, the knew mckenzie report says only 11% are new. that means the entire point of obamacare, covering the uninsured, isn't even coming anywhere close to achieving that goal. but here's something that is succeeding in america, the private sector entrepreneurial oil and gas boom. last year u.s. energy growth was the fastest of any country in the last two decades. wow. all of a sudden republicans are looking at more and more states