cnbc tonight. it is "shark tank" tuesday starting at 8:00 p.m. even kevin o'leary will be joining fous our state of the union address at 9:00 p.m. eastern. tomorrow we're going up to the big fed statement that starts at 1:50 p.m. eastern. >> we have bill gross of pimco on as well. thanks for watching. "the closing bell" starts right now. and welcome to "the closing bell." i'm kelly evans on this tuesday at the new york stock exchange where stocks tyler, are rebounding a bit today. the dow is up 92 points at this hour. >> there's a lot more green on the board. i was just looking at the list of the 500 stocks in the s&p. i'm tyler mathisen at cnbc global headquarters in today for bill griffeth. the dow on track to break a five-day losing streak. as you see right there, up 93 points at 15,930. got upcoming earnings from several big ones kelly. >> we we do.

at&t and yahoo! reporting after the bell five ten minutes afterwards so we'll have plenty of coverage on that. earnings continue to be a theme all day. we have also got an eye on the nasdaq which is lagging again today. part of that has to do with the intersection of two stories right now. the stock story of the day no doubt is apple which has been crushed. let's look at the shares at the moment. they're down 7.6%. a big move for this name. there are some people who believe this is a buying opportunity. carl icahn buying half a billion dollars worth again. we have someone joining us who says carl is going to take a bath because apple is going down to. he's hear to make that case. >> we're also two hours away from a crucial decision from the central bank, not our central bank talking about turkey's central bank. you need to care about this because the decision it makes will have ripple effects on your money right here in the u.s. it's all part of the emerging

markets mess the currency things that are going on over there, possible contagion. our michelle caruso-cabrera is on the ground live in turkey kelly, with the latest. >> wow. let's take a look at markets as we head into this final hour of trade. the dow poised to snap a five-day losing streak. it's adding 92 points at this hour. the nasdaq as mentioned, lagging a bit as apple comes under pressure. it's up 11 points to 4094 and the s&p 500 adding about 10. a decent performance this afternoon, 1792 is the level there. >> let's talk about these markets in our closing bell exchange. joining us kim forest jason pryde,ed to salamon and michael pinto and our own rick santelli. gentlemen, lady welcome to one and all. michael, let me begin with you. i know we'll have plenty of time to talk about the emerging markets and apple. let's talk a little bit about the fed and the likelihood that the fed will continue its taper

even if it doesn't, it does seem likely that the federal reserve is going to pull back on its stimulus this year. do you think the markets and the economy can withstand that? >> well no i don't at all. portfolio strategy is now 90% cash. i will be shorting stocks this week or next week. i think the fed has engendered a phony economic recovery based on reinflating asset bubbles, particularly home prices and equities. i think they will be tapering into falling economic strength and i think that ends very badly for the economy, earnings the market. >> todd what's your take? >> well we like to hear expectations. we at schaefer's investment research, we like to go off expectations. it's part of our investment strategy. if you look at -- i think there is a lot of caution out there in terms of the economy and the impact on stocks.

you look at for example, in the options market all the portfolio protection trades out there is fund managers are cautious. you look at short interest. it was just reported today, in fact that short interest on nyse stocks was up 3% in the first half of january. that's been at a high level for the pastself months since selfveral months since the fed hinted taper was on the horizon. >> in other words, there's still a lot of worry out there a lot of worry to climb? is that what makes you more optimistic? >> the market seems to be telling a different story as far as forecasting what the economy will do what company earnings will do going forward than the opinions being expressed out there. >> so jason, let me bring you in jason, if i might. michael paints a pretty dark picture. todd seems to be saying there's a lot of caution out there. a little caution can be

sometimes a good thing, no? >> look this is a natural point to see this in the market. we've been through a pretty rough period over the past three, four five years. it's hard to get everybody back on board. the economy is barry rekoferely recovering. it's making some progress. the fed is doing exactly what it should have done. it should have provided as much stimulus as possible to stimulate deleveraging and now we're getting back to normal. >> the aggregate amount -- >> the aggregate amount of debt to income has come down across the world. all the metrics show it. >> i hate -- i don't want to talk over you, sir, so please. the aggregate amount of debt -- >> that's what you just did. -- >>. >> it's there has been no deleveraging. if if you look at household as a

percentage of income it's at 105% -- >> it's my turn now. just a second. just as a look at consumer debt consumer debt started in 2010 at 140% of the disposable income. it is now down to 100% of disposeable income. it's coming down. >> in 1980 it was 45%. >> all right. >> agreed. and we also had 15% interest rates. >> let's forget about the fact that the government has releveraged to the tune of $17 trillion. >> kim, what's your take? how do you see things? >> i see things that i'm supposed to find good companies to be put in your portfolio. i know this is terribly old-fashioned, but, you know -- and let's see because i think last year at this time we were equally grim and if you were all in cash you would have got your clock cleaned. >> i wasn't. >> through 2013 and, you know, we did really well because we buy companies that work for

their shareholders, and i think that's what you guys are missing with these big macro calls. good luck with that but, you know -- >> what is the bond market telling you? >> -- and it's the same environment. >> i find it fascinating today, tyler, because we have been looking at a flattening yield curve and falling rates for most of 2014 which is very counterintuitive, but today looking at intraday of fives, their yields are down a basis point. the chart of fives to 30s you can see there's steepening going on. that probably has imimpliplications for market perception. the buybacks are most likely going to be less and the dollar index is pretty stable and pursuant to this conversation what are we 62 63 months into zero interest rates and the fed was very successful in the toothpaste dynamic. they squeezed us owlall down the tubes in the riskier assets because they bought the safest

ones in the form of treasuries. now it's going to reverse. and what's the riskiest of the risky? the emerging markets. it makes sense on many levels. maybe the fed will pull it off. >> no they won't. >> maybe we'll ride the bike straight. it's not my thought but you never know. we'll never know until we get -- >> fi years -- >> one at a time. >> five years of 0% interest rates, a $4 trillion fed balance sheet, and everybody is pretending they can just exit without any ramifications and they haven't even really started the taper. it's $75 billion, maybe it becomes $65 billion and maybe it comes down to zero by the time we hit the summer but guess what happens to currencies? guess what happens to interest rates? there's all kinds -- >> the carry trade. >> -- of things we don't know. look what's happening in the emerging market. the last person who knows anything is the federal reserve. if you're banking on them, you're going to be very sorry. >> jason, how is the fed's activity or tightening affecting the emerging markets? do you see a direct nexus there? remember last summer when the

fed said we're going to think about the tapering the emerging markets fell out of bed. is that what we're seeing these past couple weeks? >> there are definitely connection points there, it's hard to ignore that. there's definitely a connection point to emerging markets and economic activity. this is why they're proceeding in a $10 billion per meeting sort of pace and judging it on an as you go basis as to how they're proceeding going forward. it's also the reason that they are strengthening their forward guidance. they believe that they can offset some of the impact of their tapering on one hand with a strengthening of basically saying we're going to have lower rates longer for as long as we feed them. anybody that jumps up and down and argues it's only a one direction move, that they're going to put their blinders on and not react appropriately is completely missing the communication. >> you think he can come back with a bigger buyback down the road? boy, i will take the other side

of that wager. >> folks -- >> and the fed does not control long-term interest rates. >> a spirited debate as we always like to have. folks, gentlemen, lady appreciate it very much. >> thank you. >> we have about 51 minutes -- 50 minutes before the closing bell. the dow is higher by 87 points right now, kelly. >> but apple is not higher. those shares having their worst day in a year after posting disappointing iphone sales and weak revenue guidance. up next we'll hear from someone who says the selling in this company has just started. you might not believe his price target. carl icahn will be in trouble if he's right. and also ahead, big earnings from at&t and yahoo! due out after the bell. we will have full coverage of all the numbers as soon as they are out. and don't forget carl quintanilla, john harwood and i will have complete coverage of the president's state of the union address at 9:00 p.m. eastern on cnbc. keep it right here you are watching cnbc first in business worldwide.

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the overall stock market recovering from its recent losses, at least so far today. the dow up 86 points but apple having its worst day in a year after reporting its earnings last night, and they weren't

bad. jon fortt, why is the fallout so doggone intense? >> tyler, it's the iphone number and the guidance. the street was looking for something close to 55 million iphones and got 51. that's particularly disappointing since apple actually built up some channel inventory during the quarter, which brings us to the guidance. $43 billion in revenue plus or minus a billion. analysts wanted 46. even with expanding distribution in japan and china, iphone growth appears to have hit a wall and apple seems to be oneer running out of ways to extend existing products. we have the mini the mini retina and the iphone 5c which consumers seem to be taking a pass on. that leaves us looking ahead to new products. it's going to take tens of millions of a new product, watch or tv to really move the needle for a company this size. frankly, even if they announce something tomorrow it will probably take several quarters that ramp that up guys. >> thank you. so what is next for apple's share price? joining us is burt dolman who

says apple is headed to $320. on the bullish side is the lou bassinese. burt $320 a share, really? >> yes. actually that was my target on cnbc asia about ten months ago. i said over the long term that is the eventually downside target. i had given a sell signal on apple six days after the top at $705. that was in late september last year. >> why do you say that? the company had record revenues. it sold the most iphones in a quarter it ever has. it had record sales of ipads, and its profits were pretty doggone good? >> profit margins -- profit growth has shrunk now four consecutive quarters. it's losing market share continuously. why would you want to buy a stock that has declining profit margins, declining profit share,

is in a very very crowded sector? they made all their money when they had a virtual monopoly on the smartphones. it's a really crowded sector. nobody is going to win the smartphone market anymore. >> go ahead, lou. >> if burt is issuing a sell signal, i'm issuing a buy signal today. we can recycle the arguments about profit share declining but this is not about a device. an investment in apple is an investment in an ecosystem and what no one is factoring in is the fact that apple is going to become a big player in the mobile payment space. they have one of the biggest user bases there. >> says who? >> if you look at what apple has been done since early 2012 they have been filing patents. they acquired you athentech. they included a biometric sensor in the most recent device. the writing is on the call. the most recent conference call tim cook said we see a lot more

opportunity with touch i.d. everyone loves paying with touch i.d. i think that's the key for mobile payments. you need security which apple got with biometrics and you also need people being familiar with the platform and everybody -- >> burt does your price target of $320 take into account what we know about mobile payments potentially with apple or not? and would you change your point of view if apple does come out with something aggressive on that front? >> kelly, let me say two things. first of all the target it's not a price grabbed out of the air. when i set the first downside target was $520, and that was a fibonacci number. we had a rally up to $589 at that point. then it came down -- we said now it's going to go to $420. it hit $420 and it rallied. after the rally we said we wouldn't touch the stock until there was a three in front of the price. it hit $385 at the low so that was a good buy point for a rally, nothing else. we hear the story about all

these wonderful things they're going to come out with in the future. nobody really knows what it is but we've been hearing that for two years now under the new ceo. i think this new ceo at apple maybe a twin brother of steve ballmer at microsoft. >> wow. >> lou, let me let you jump in on that. look at a five-day chart of apple and a one-year chart of apple which shows a very different story. but let me get you to discuss two points. you said that when you buy apple, you're buying an ecosystem. coy have i could have made the same argument about the microsoft ecosystem and the dell ecosystem a few years ago, that's number one, and do you believe a mobile payment system will be the catapulting product that mimics the products they have had in the past iphone, ipod ipad? >> microsoft and dell compared

to apple? absolutely not. they didn't have anywhere near the consumer appeal of apple which is -- >> good point. >> saving grace. in terms of mobile payments yes, the technology has been converging on mobile payments for years now and it's finally reached a tipping point and apple has been on the forefront of this. you see them coming out with biometric sensor. now htc and samsung are incorporating biometric sensors. it's bigger than the number of accounts that amazon and pay pal have -- >> the by knowiobiometric sensor is nothing but a fingerprint reader. computers have that nowadays. have you seen hp? >> but apple also has the ecosystem that everyone is familiar with -- >> but everybody has a mobile payment system. look at what they're going to come out with. yesterday the bulls were talking about the fablet. samsung has had a fablet for the last two years. you talk about --

>> remember the diamond re ceo. rio player. >> this is not innovation. innovation for apple is a different color phone, a gold colored phone. that's innovation? they should listen to their customers. >> apple doesn't need to innovate right now. they just have to leverage -- >> they don't need to? look at the stock price. down $44. they don't need to do something? >> guys, with we have to jump. lou, if you're right, where are apple shares going? >> i think apple is going to make a run. i can't predict the future but i'm with carl icahn. this is a no-brainer buying opportunity. >> yes, if you don't have a brain, you buy apple. >> no way. you still haven't answered whether or not you have mobile payments factored into your model. >> on that note i say take two fablets and call me in the morning. >> very clever. the dow is up 87 points. we're kind of sitting at these levels. we'll watch for more movement as we head closer to 4:00. the s&p adding 10 points pretty good performance as the nasdaq

continues to lag. >> president obama will be heading to capitol hill tonight. it is always a dramatic moment when he comes through those doors and the sergeant at arms says "the president of the united states." income inequality will be one of the big pillars of the reach. up next, we have a preview and the list of the stocks that could benefit from the president's agenda. and general electric's ceo jeff immelt making a big bet on his company, buying $1 million worth of shares with his own money. we'll tell you what signals that's sending about ge and the broader market coming up on "the closing bell."

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welcome back. president obama is set to deliver the annual state of the union address this evening, and sheila has three themes investors should keep a close eye on tonight. >> that's right, kelly. and the number one thing to watch for today, energy independence. market watchers say any favorable talk about energy independence is a plus for the producers and refiners. look, the president may talk about wind emergency or push construction to export natural gas. that could be a positive for the pipeline companies. like an excel energy or range resources. number two thing to watch for, housing finance. if the president actually pushes to expand housing credit or maybe expand those refinancing

opportunities, jeff clinekleintop case watch a mortgage heavy bank like wells fargo. they could be impacted. minimum wage is likely to be atopic. that could be a negative for the restaurant and the retail industry. really, a range of companies call into this. anything from a mcdonald's to a macy's or even someone like the gap. here is the bottom line investors' guide to the state of the union is really a sector specific play. you want to watch specific stocks you want to watch specific sectors. big overall market moves are rare. the average move is only a little more than 0.1%. so it really is a stock specific, a sector specific play. >> all right. some great ideas there, sheila, thanks. the white house says president obama will focus on economic

inequality. >> joining us now, michael strain, resident scholar at the american enterprise institute, andrew palmenteria and steve liesman. mr. strand one of the arguments you make is we ought to concentrate less on the highest 10% of earners and what they're earning and concentrate more on the lower 10%, maybe even the lower 1%. how would you concentrate on them? what would you do to help that part of the income curve more up the income curve? >> well, you know, there are two ways to deal with inequality, bring the top down or bring the bottom up. i think we should be bringing the bottom up. a big, big problem at the lower end is unemployment. there are things the government can do to help the unemployed. relocation assistance so they can move to a better labor market is one example. these solutions are key to helping these folks and to lowering the income gap.

>> andrew the president today using an executive order to raise the minimum wage for federal workers. what's your take? >> so my take in general, and i'm very interested to see what steve has to say on this we've been down this road for years on the long-term unemployed and when you increase the price for something, the demand for that something goes down. so if we increase minimum wage from $7.25 to $10.10, that's going to impact, you know, a couple of million people out of the workforce, number one, and it's doing virtually nothing to stimulate structural consumer demand which is really what's needed to get the economy to grow in a much more organic way. so i'm kind of disappointed that the president has picked this big idea as, you know the centerpiece of his state of the union address. >> this is a big democratic idea. mr. strain, very quick, and i

want to bring steve in after you comment on this you say don't raise the minimum wage lower the minimum wage for the long-term unemployed and lower it for youth. what effect would that have? >> i think right now there's a lot of evidence that firms feel like hiring a worker who has been unemployed for six months or a year is a big risk and a way to lower that risk is to lower the amount of money the firm has to pay. a firm might say $7.25 an hour that's too risky but maybe i'd be willing to do it for 4 bucks an hour. if we do that we might be able to get more of these folks back into jobs and they can get a better job or get a promotion so they're not earning that. >> steve, what's your thought? >> we have done a couple stories, and michael has written about this as well which is why i'm so interested in his writings on this. there's a couple european solutions out there. first of all, i think we're at or nearing a place where monetary policy is not going to help those who have been unemployed for six months or more. >> monetary policy. >> yes. >> i think the fed has done a lot of heavy lifting. one of michael's point is we make the shift over to the

fiscal side. there are a couple european solutions out there. work sharing. we did a story out of germany on this where instead of laying off people, what you do is end up reducing the number of hours for all involved and the government comes in and helps out. the other thing is the use of vocational schools and education. i was fascinated to read what michael rights out of the aei and kevin has setsett. there are important places where democrats and republicans actually agree. look, minimum wage is not one of them, but the earned income tax credit is one of them. you have conservative scholars and liberal scholars both saying -- >> steve do you think the president calls for something like that tonight? >> what is that? >> do you think -- you're right, this seems to be one intersection of policy that people -- that there's bipartisan agreement around. do you think that means we hear anything about it tonight? >> i think he will hear about eitc this evening and minimum wage but i know that's not on the other side. i think there's very little chance of that happening. i think there were reasons to

support a minimum wage. i don't think we've tried it -- >> steve can i ask you a question? >> go ahead. >> in the third quarter last year, 68% of gdp was driven by consumers, right? so how are we going to keep that going? we're either going to see consumers continue to lever up through debt or we need to see real wage increases. so i think these things that you're talking about are great, but we need to do things to address -- >> why wouldn't more money in people's pockets be something to help keep consumer spending going, especially if the data is right that the gains are going to those at the top, then things we could do to increase wages at the bottom or income at the bottom would seem to be helpful? >> there are a million and a half people in the country that make minimum wage and another 6 that work multiple jobs. whatever percentages you assign to those, you're talking about a small percentage of the workforce. >> agreed. >> so i'm not totally against

the idea. i just think -- >> there's the old -- don't make the perfect the enemy of the good. if that's something that could help a bit and you layer in vocational training and you layer in eitc and do you what i think michael is interested in doing which is focusing on the bottom 1% in way that is increase opportunity to those -- to that class of people then i think that's -- >> gentlemen, maybe i'm misunderstanding, but correct me if i'm wrong on this, i thought the earned income tax credit which everybody seems to agree is a very helpful tool is a refundable tax credit which means money goes out through it. if you expand it that money, if you're going to maintain the budget the way it is has to come from somewhere. where does it come from? >> i tell you one place, we spend a lot of money on rich people through the mortgage interest deduction and state and local interest deduction. if we take some of that money and we pump that into a more generous eitc, we're taking

money from wealthy people and giving it to poorer people we're making the tax code more efficient by broadening the base. >> you know it's the third rail to do anything to the deduction on mortgages. is the tide shifting -- >> i'm not in congress fortunately. >> in the context of broad based tax reform that's a great idea. >> it's a great idea. i hope it's a practical one. >> that's another place, by the way, where when i talk to conservative and liberal scholars, they agree. the idea of tax entitlements that marty feldstein calls them at least for the wealthy is something that needs to be curtailed. there's no limit son the amount of spending that happens. it benefits those who don't necessarily need the benefit at the expense of those who need it. >> small government conservatives should be able to say the government shouldn't be spending money on the top 20%. >> why isn't the president coming out steve, tonight and saying we need to reconcile our

long-term fiscal imbalances and this corporate welfare you're talking about should be at the center of that discussion? i completely agree with you. why isn't he talking about repatriateing foreign drive earning. this is small ball versus like i'm the president. >> i don't answer for or speak for the president. i think those are good ideas. what drives me nuts andrew is why the thing we agree on why we can't make any progress on that stuff. sure there's stuff -- higher taxes, lower taxes, we disagree on that but the notion -- >> i think that's a great point. >> the notion of using the money we already take from people -- >> like oil companies don't need $80 billion a year in tax credits. >> that's insanity. >> we have to leave it there, guys, but there will be plenty more happening. only about 5 1/2 hours away from that important discussion. really want to thank you all for joining us on this issue. >> thanks kelly. >> thanks so much. >> carl quintanilla, john harwood, and i will have complete coverage of the state

of the union address at 9:00 p.m. eastern. the dow is up 98 points, so gaining a little traction. the s&p 500 higher as well. and the nasdaq is up about 12 points with about 27 minutes before the closing bell. >> we'll see, perhaps we'll hit triple digits. will another batch of weak commitment data force the if he had to abandon the taper? could it increase economic stimulus measures? and could bitcoin's future be going bust after two bitcoin exchange operators were charged with money laundering? we'll take a look later on "the closing bell." uncer ] the new new york is open. open to innovation. open to ambition. open to bold ideas. that's why new york has a new plan -- dozens of tax free zones all across the state. move here, expand here, or start a new business here and pay no taxes for ten years... we're new york. if there's something that creates more jobs, and grows more businesses... we're open to it. start a tax-free business at startup-ny.com.

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a little gaining of traction there for the dow industrials. up now 102. the nasdaq higher by roughly 12 and the s&p 500 up by 12 at 1793. kelly? >> pfizer and visa two of the big movers on the dow today as well. disappointing economics data across the board though. it was the durable goods number which tracks big ticket manufactured items tumbling more than 4% in december. home prices also falling the month before. >> plus let's remember the disastrous december jobs report and all of this bad news as ben bernanke's final fomc meeting kicks off today. will this force him to taper the taper? let's brick in peter schiff of euro pacific capital. also with us is jeff cox,

financial editor of cnbc.com who has been predicting the fed would have to reverse course on tapering. why don't we just start there, jeff. why do you say that? why do you think the fed may be halting and ultimately have to stop its tapering? >> i just think at some point the fed has gotten themselves to the point of no return on this. i don't really think they know how to get out of the box they've gotten themselves into. i do happen -- i think that tomorrow the market is really looking at the precision probability of them adding another $10 billion to the taper. i don't think that's going to happen. i think there's a very good chance that tomorrow they could say, no, we're going to wait. for a lot of the reasons you pointed out, tyler. the economic data does not look great right now. the equity markets are not reacting very well here. i think there's a lot of uncertainty. we don't know which way things are going in the emerging markets. so i do think they're going to take their steps very carefully here and i would not be surprised at all tomorrow if they do say we're going to stay at that $75 billion mark and see how things transpire down the

road. >> all right. peter, you don't -- what do you think the fed does? >> i don't disagree with that. i mean i think janet yellin certainly will taper the taper talk. in fact, i think she's going to reverse the taper and end up doing more than $85 billion a month in qe. right now the markets are going to continue to decline as long as the fed stays on this taper time line. and i think the fed is going to be cognizant of that. if you remember they're basing the taper on the recovery which is the result of the wealth effect of a rising stock market and a rising real estate market that allows us to lever up and borrow more money to buy more stuff that we can't afford. but as these assets bubbles deflate because the fed threatens to remove the props, now all of a sudden the recovery disappears, we're headed right back into recession, and the only way to stop the markets from falling and to revive the illusion of a recovery is to do more qe and that is exactly what the fed is going to do unfortunately. >> what about that jeff?

do you think if the taper went away peter makes the case we'd go back into recession. is that likely? people have been saying the economy is actually doing pretty well. peter makes the case it's only doing well because the fed is paying it to. >> tyler, if you look at the numbers for last year. the earnings growth for the s&p 500 was about 6.5%. the fed balance sheet expanded by 33%. do the math. the s&p 500 went up 29%. it's 33% or 6.5% closer to 29%. i think it's pretty apparent which -- is the tail wagging the dog here. how independent is the fed? i think less independent than they would like to be. i don't think this is a decision that they're going to go into willingly, but i do believe that, yes, they are being -- it's almost like a stockholm syndrome type thing. >> are you saying this happens this year imminently, that the fed is going to have to reverse course? >> oh, i think so. i think it's going to be this

year, and, you know, tyler, i don't think the economy is actually doing well. that's the problem. it's just the illusion. it's the stock market going up it's the real estate market going up. it makes people think the economy is doing well but it's actually doing lousy because the monetary policy that's needed to prop up these bubbles is preventing the kind of restructuring we need in this economy to actually produce legitimate economic growth and good jobs. that's why when you actually poll the public and ask the people how they feel to them it feels like a recession because it actually is a recession. maybe for a few people on wall street the economy is improving but it's not on main street. >> i take your point that the economy is doing well because it's being paid to do well. >> it only looks like it is doing well. it's lousy. it's a disaster. >> in that scenario, what should i do with my money, peter? what should i do? >> you should be buying gold. you should be buying mining stocks. you should be investing abroad.

you should be getting out of the u.s. dollar. when the fed surprises everybody and does more qe and people realize the box that we're in that it's qe infinity that there is no exit strategy that exit is impossible that it's ever larger doses of this monetary heroin, the bottom is going to drop out of the dollar. an economy that lives by qe dies by qe. >> if i could just add to that i have a post up now on cnbc.com. i think basically we're all looking for this correction in the market to come and i think that the people who try to time this market and wait for that 10% or 12% or 15% drop are going to find themselves holding the bag here because i really don't believe -- i think the fed will move in way before that correction happens and listen history has taught us if it's taught us anything about central banks, it tells us they always move too late. they're always behind the curve, and i think that this central bank is going to prove to be into different than any of its

press sesors or predecessors. >> thank you. we have about 15 minutes left to go before the closing bell. we're hovering around the triple digit mark for the dow helped by some key components like visa and pfizer. >> and yahoo! ceo marissa mayer has on a buying spree snapping up more than 20 companies. josh lipton has a earnings preview on yahoo! as we await to see whether mayer's moves have paid off. after the bell bitcoin busted. they're front in center in a money laundering conspiracy. that's all coming up on "the closing bell."

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welcome back. investors getting set for a pair of crucial earnings that will hit just after the bell, tyler. >> josh lipton has a review of what to expect from at&t and yahoo!. old and new media there, josh. >> yeah absolutely. tyler, two big earnings after the bell. here is what the street wants to see. yahoo! analysts looking for eps of 39 cents on revenue of $1.2 billion.

that would be basically flat from one year ago. marissa mayer's plan for yahoo! has been to buy companies, improve products and increase traffic but that has not led to strong financial results. investors will pay close attention to display ad revenue as well as how alibaba is performing. as for at&t analysts not expecting much. eps of 51 cents on sales of $33 billion. one number to watch there is the number of post paid wireless subscribers in the fourth quarter. if at&t misses on that number look out, it could indicate t-mobile is gaining ground. back to you. >> josh lipton reporting for us from silicon valley. about 13 minutes before the closing bell. the dow has been up about 100. the s&p gaining about i think it was 12 points last i looked. it always goes away right when i'm ready to talk. >> that's true. art cashin pointing out 30 of those points on the dow is coming from visa which is the

priciest stock on the index and it's having a good day. still to come on "the closing bell," president obama will be delivering his state of the union in the face of stunningly bad poll numbers. can he get anything done on his economic agenda when 60% of the country say we're headed in the wrong direction. tune in tonight because starting at 9:00 eastern will be hosting coverage of the address.tanilla and myself will have live reports from washington with john harwood and a great panel of guests as well.

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we are about ten minutes away from the close, about nine really. industrials up 90 points. the nasdaq higher by almost 10 and the s&p higher by 10.5. so reversing some of the losses from yesterday and friday and days prior. joining us back from the new york stock exchange erin gives from s&p iq and skip alsworth from the hennessy technology fund. i don't know if you were there for the last conversation with peter and jeff. at the end of it i kind of wanted to slip my wrist. peter was saying buy canned goods and bottled water, jeff less so, but you get the point. is it as nasty, erin as they see it or do you see it a little less so?

peter's point was whatever economic growth we have is totally false and driven by the fed and it's not sustainable. what do you think? >> i wouldn't quite say to put all your money under the mattress and buy canned goods just yet. i think there's a lot of anomalies happening in december and some odd data which i agree with. look housing started declining as soon as the fed started talking about tapering and rates came up. and we've had all these excuses about housing just isn't coming back because of seasonality and we're looking until february march, and april. i'd wait until then just before buying those canned goods and look to see if we have that recovery. the same with payroll numbers and jobless claims. >> skip what can i buy reliably safely here right now? >> well i'd like to proffer -- get into the natural gas industry and particularly the distribution side. natural gas has had a marvelous revolution. we have plenty of supplies and

we're building the demand side and so the distribution part of the natural gas industry is really separate and devoid from all these other issues that are talked about. >> names like names like? >> kinder gor erer morgan transcanada, embridge. an unusual name is berkshire hathaway with its investment in mid-america energy and burlington northern. the railroads should benefit tremendously from transition from diesel to natural gas as a fuel and have an upwards of 50%, 60% fuel savings. >> erin, what do you see that's worth buying at these prices? >> you know besides afew of those, there are some places within the energy space, but another one we also like is in the materials, specifically chemicals. eastman chemicals is one of our favorites. it has one of the lowest estimates for 2013 but looking at 2014 coming off of those lows these estimates for 2014 have had some of the highest revisions upwards in the past

few weeks and we think they could really be some of the big winners going ahead. >> thanks for your help. up next we'll come right back with the closing countdown. and also after the top of the hour earnings from at&t and yahoo!. they are due out very shortly, and we have full team coverage standing by to dissect all the numbers and what they will mean to those company shares and the overall market as well. you're watching cnbc first in business worldwide, and we wouldn't have it any other way. [ male announcer ] legalzoom has helped start over 1 million businesses. if you have a business idea, we have a personalized legal solution that's right for you. with easy step-by-step guidance, we're here to help you turn your dream into a reality. start your business today with legalzoom. she loves a lot of the same things you do. it's what you love about her. but your erectile dysfunction -

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all right. we have about four minutes, three minutes to go. the industrials up 92 points the nasdaq higher by 10.75 and the s&p up by 11. time now for the closing countdown, and back with us on the floor, terry dolan from benjamin and gerald brokerage. terry, welcome back. good to see you. >> thank you. >> compare and contrast as the old essay question went the day's market tone and what we have seen over the past three, four, five days. >> today's market tone is one a little more of relief. obviously, we had really gone down a little further than even i expected in terms of a mini correction here. 15,800. i'm a little happier in terms of the technical relief the rally has provided. it looks to me we will be able to feel a little more comfortable that the market will stabilize around these levels and move forward. >> what if anything do you

think investors will be looking to hear the president say tonight, number one, and, number two, looking to hear what the fed has to say tomorrow? >> well i think as far as the investors are concerned -- excuse me as far as the president is concerned tonight, i think the investor community is looking for him to figure out ways in which he's going to be able to lay out a better plan for expansion in the economy and how he can address some of the issues out there that will give us better employment going forward. as far as tomorrow and the fed, i anticipate they're going to continue along the road they're going. they're going to take a gradual foot off the gas, if you will on the tapering side and i look for them to continue to keep a real close nose to inflation to see how that's going to impact -- >> when you say the foot off the gas on tapering, you expect them to cut even more of their bond buying? >> i do. that is what i do expect them to do. i all along 23e89felt like it was a common sense approach where they would ease rather than shock the markets and that's what they're doing. i think that in tan dom withdem with

decent economic numbers, growth consumer company dense will leave a window for the fed to continue to act in that fashion. >> you have there on the floor of the new york stock exchange, you have to have one eye out the window not only on the super bowl festivities, but the emerging markets. how do you process that information? take me inside the bubble. how do you think about it and do things in light of what's gone on overseas? >> in many times you got to take it as a comes. you got to look to see what the strategies are after the events begin to unfold and many other cases if you're fortunate enough to see something unfolding that may be an ability to preeveryone something like that that's terrific. it's almost defend after the fact in certain situations especially when things come out of left field. >> has the pullback been -- and modest though it has been 3% or something like that so far this month, has it been in your view healthy? >> yes very healthy. i was very happy with it. i anticipated it. i was hoping for it. rather than see the move we saw

late last year get extended to the point where it's way overbought. >> yeah. i guess that's a good happy note on which to end things here as they start to ring the bell down at the new york stock exchange. terry dolan thank you very much for being with us. it's going to be a busy hour ahead and kelly will take you through it. thank you, tyler, and welcome to the"the closing bell." i'm kelly evans. stocks are rallying all three major indexes, in fact. this does mean the dow has snapped a five-day losing streak as it adds about 89 points. that's half a percent and we came a little off the highs. we were up triple digits 4edheading into the close. we want to emphasize not only that the dow industrials is higher today but so is the nasdaq, so is the s&p 500. only the fourth time in the last four weeks they've all been up together. that gives you a sense of how choppy and mixed this trading activity has been. and let's bring in today's panel as we wait for a couple key earnings reports due out in just moments. cnbc contributors elon and carol

roth. sharon epperson and kate kelly. and "fast money" contributor tim seymour. welcome to all of you. it's tim and the ladies. >> yes. lucky man. >> while we wait for at&t and yahoo!, we have a bunch of people standing by to cover it. quick thoughts about the action we're seeing today, sharon? >> one of the things investors are probably really happy about and retail investors and long-term investors is that finally we are seeing this uptick in the market but it doesn't mean it's still not important to consider rebalancing and making sure that you're where you want to be for the first of the year. don't expect the same euphoria we saw at the end of last year. today may be a blip. till be interesting to see what's happening in emerging markets. >> i think sharon is touching on a key issue. people might be exhaling after a very rough couple days and just feeling like some of these emerging market issues we've been seeing might be i had idiosyncratic and a reminder that the emerging markets have

that been at issue are a relatively small piece of the global economy. so a relative safety in the u.s. although, of course, people are looking to see what the fed is going to do. >> we have two big four-letter acronyms we're sort of dealing with. sot, state of the union tonight, fomc elon. i was going to ask you about this. it's ben bernanke's last meeting. do you expect any market activity today is related to a fed that's going to be less hawkish than feared? >> i think what today showed is the talk that the fed might pause tapering is premature. the fed is not surprised by the fact that global markets would be worried about the pace of the tapering and what it looks like going forward. that's why they started with such a small number to begin with. the fed has been bracing for this actually since december. and if you look at the comments of dallas fed president richard fischer, he said he would not flinch in the face of a correction in order to continuing to vote for taper. >> in september when they decided not to taper, they did

at the time cite some concern about emerging markets and financial conditions and while the economy looks okay it's undeniable financial conditions have tightened a little bit this year, but it sounds like it's just not quite enough yet for them. >> if the fed is worried about markets, they're worried about the international picture more than they're worried about the domestic picture. but the fed has said that they are not going to be reacting to every single change in the markets. we saw a little dip. we saw the markets come back and it's just not enough for the fed to make a change. >> they do not taper, i think we would have a big problem. i think the market would respond to that as a panic and it would be a bad thing. >> want you to hold that thought so we can get to the breaking news. at&t reporting numbers. jon fortt has them. jon? >> kelly, it looks to be a modest beat. $33.2 billion in revenue. that's a hair above the $33.1 billion the street expected. and the nongap eps appears to be 53 cents, above the 51 expected.

on the outlook, it looks like they're expecting capital expenditures in the $21 billion range. now, here are some key numbers in the wireless business which we want to look at in particular. wireless service revenues growing 4.8% and phone only post paid arpo arch revenue per user, up 3.9%. that's also positive. at&t saying smartphones and tablets tablets drove that growth. wireless subscribers of 809,000 added in the quarter. record low fourth quarter post paid churn. that's people leaving the network. that's key because t-mobile is trying to push customers away from at&t. at&t is countering trying to poach from t-mobile in q4. at&t seems to have done fine. the churn number is 1.11% compared to 1.19% a year ago.

smartphones now 93% of phone sales. that is a record for them kelly. >> wow. jon, fascinating stuff. jrn john fort, thank you. i want to bring in david burkes for some instant reaction. david, what jumps out to you? >> the initial reaction appears to be a modest beat. they beat on revenues, on earnings, and on wireless subscribers. >> and the wireless subscriber growth is interesting here and i wonder if t-mobile shares tomorrow will be under pressure because of this. so how does this change relative to your expectations, david, how the company appears to be doing at this jinx touruncture. >> the consensus was they would add 632,000 wireless customers. they surpassed it by over 200,000 which is extra impressive given the intensely

competitive nature of the industry and t-mobile has been targeting their customers over the past few months. >> how aggressive have they had to be to not only attain but attract customers in the light of increasing competition? that to me would sound like something where you have to watch margins but it doesn't seem to be concerning investors at this hour. >> that's right. what i'd like to see more kelly, is what the wireless ebitda margins were in the fourth quarter. the expectations were it would be around 33.7%. with maybe a little higher earnings than anticipated, maybe margins held up a little bitter than what the street was anticipating. >> okay. david, thanks very much. jon fortt, hearing that and we'll try to pick out that margin figure if we can, but anything else as you're looking through the report jump out at you? >> well, i think in particular i just want to point to that churn number as being particularly important. also, they're saying on u-verse, an extension in a way of the wireless business the way they look at it it's more digital

content, they're saying churn is low in that area too. that's their push into the tv space. so all of that positive particularly in the context of apple saying last night that carriers in the u.s. are slowing down their willingness to upgrade customers early. this kind of strength and those key metrics from at&t might point to their confidence why they're willing to do that. >> at&t moving to the upside after hours, jon, thanks. stay with us if you will because now we want to switch gears and get over to yahoo! which is also moving higher right now. it looks like the earnings report there is a beat as well. josh liplipton what can you tell us? >> yahoo! just reporting. remember the street was looking for 39 cents on $1.2 billion. yahoo! reporting 46 cents on $1.2 billion. looking through the product segments display revenue, really the core of yahoo!'s business. the street was looking for $500 million. yahoo! reports $491 million.

search revenue, the street was looking for $443 million. yahoo! reports $461 million. kelly, back to you. >> all right. josh thanks very much. now, i want to bring in dan morgan as well with his thoughts portfolio manager. joining us now on the newsline and, jon fortt with us as well. dan, first to you. so we're hearing perhaps a little bit better in terms of the monetization story. is it good enough? >> it's pretty good, kelly. i mean obviously we were looking for them to exceed numbers in terms of search ad revenue and display ad revenue. they were slightly above on search ad revenue. it was a big beat on the bottom line in terms of earnings. revenues look like they're pretty much in line with expectations. just initially looking at the report, obviously a big beat on earnings but we'll have to drill down and take a look at how other things are kind of coming together on this quarter. >> and, dan, you have detailed this and others in the past as

well but so much of yahoo!'s share price is a reflection of its stakes in alibaba and yahoo! japan. those two things plus the cash combined equal out to something like $30 a share if you work through it. so if we see that yahoo! is just now moving up to $39 after hours, that would suggest that the core yahoo! business is becoming more profitable. is that a fair characterization? >> well you're right. i mean the trade has been ali alibaba alibaba, it's association in terms of the stake, the 24% stake yahoo! has in them. you know it's kind of discouraging when you net out these numbers and come up with $30 with cash and yahoo! japan and alibaba and then you see what's leftover and that's kind of what the street is valuing the remainder of their business. so we'd like to see, kelly, obviously a little bit more of a premium put on the yahoo! franchise and not so much on these investments like alibaba. >> absolutely. all right, dan. thanks. john fort, what about you?

it will be interesting to see what marissa mayer has to say in that video call around 5:00 eastern. >> on the display business that number is not particularly strong, the $491 million. it's 6% decrease compared to year before but interesting here, the number of ads sold increased 3% compared to a year ago and the price per ad went down. i believe that's a reversal of the trend we had been seeing where yahoo! had been selling fewer ads and charging more money for them and the thought was that can only go on for so long. if they are able to maintain the reversal there and actually grow the number of ads that they are selling as they continue to increase engagement which we've seen in the com score numbers, it could be some of the early signs of a turnaround but clearly it hasn't shown up on the top line in revenues quite yet, kelly. >> jon fortt, thanks very much. our thanks to david burkes and dan as well for all their thoughts on these companies.

yahoo! shares are moving higher by about 2%. they did hit $39 in after hours trade. $41 is the 52-week high. joule julia boorstin joining us with results frome ea. >> the company is lowering its full year net revenue guidance below what wall street had expected and also below what it had previously forecast but the company is increasing its earnings guidance for its fiscal fourth quarter, the current quarter we're in now, but it's still lower than wall street had expected. looking at the current quarter revenue came in at $1.57 billion. that's below the company's guidance and also below wall street expectations. noncap diluted earnings per share came in at 126. it was above both the company's guidance and wall street expectations. three pennies better than wall street had expected but, kelly, the street really seems to be focusing on that guidance which

is negative and the stock is lower. back over to you. >> yet another instance of this happening during this earnings season with the shares down 2.5%. julia, thanks. thoughts, reaction from our panel digesting the earnings. tim, what do you make of it? >> i like yahoo! a lot. i think yahoo! got sold off not only as a stock but also because of the pressure that was on a lot of the asia internet names because of the pressure from the s.e.c. so when a lot of people do -- what a lot of traders do is they basically cut their flowers and they keep their weeds. i think yahoo! is a flower. the reasons -- >> but, tim, hang on a second. i'm going to jump in. even as you're talking all of a sudden it looks like yahoo! has reversed and turned sharply lower now and i'm tourous perhaps there's been some look -- there's some detail clearly in the earnings report people are seizing on. >> as guy says i'm trapped in here like mr. van buren but i'll tell you this, what we know

about yahoo! is that on some of the parts, i have got about $48, and so what we also know is their core business isn't doing a whole lot. i've got alibaba at $150 billion valuation and yahoo! japan taking me much higher with this stock and those are things i know about. when i look at the earnings in the entire sector at&t's numbers i think are fine but the numbers that we've seen out of apple, samsung, and even at&t tell you a few things, that big trades in 2013 are challenges in 2014. the smartphone space is very saturated. the high end is uber competitive, and that the carriers themselves are beating each other up right now. the arpus are under pressure. at&t has had the wind at their back for two years. >> kelly, i think we're seeing evidence of the phase of volatility that we're clearly in now and that may lstast for a while. i think investors are going to be very picky about the details. overall a reasonably strong quarter for apple, but iphone

sales weren't where people were expecting. i think you're seeing people combing through the press release, looking for signs drilling down to see if they're getting quality of earnings they want. if not they might sell. >> quickly, carol? >> i think it reinforces the disconnect between top line and bottom line. we're talking about earnings being fully valued. that's assuming a growth premium and to have a growth premium you have to have top line growth. >> thanks everybody. you can be sure to stick around and catch more of time seymour on "fast money" at 5:00 p.m. straight ahead, was general electric the canary in the coal mine for wall street on the recent pullback. one of the most widely held stocks but one of the worst dow performers on the year. jeff immelt buying $1 million worth of the shares. should you buy along with him? also coming up we'll go live to turkey where the central bank there is holding an emergency meeting right now. find out what impact events 5300

miles away will have on your portfolio. it's pretty significant. find out why after this short break. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. en to innovation. open to ambition. open to bold ideas. that's why new york has a new plan -- dozens of tax free zones all across the state. move here, expand here, or start a new business here and pay no taxes for ten years... we're new york. if there's something that creates more jobs, and grows more businesses... we're open to it. start a tax-free business at startup-ny.com. let's say you pay your guy around 2 percent to manage your money. that's not much, you think except it's 2 percent every year. go to e*trade and find out how much our advice and guidance c you're watching cnbc, first in spoiler alert.

it's low. it's guidance on your terms not ours. e*trade. less for us, more for you. welcome back. well, you can say this about turkey, it's got almost nothing

in common with las vegas. why? because what's happening in that country right now may not stay there. with emerging markets under pressure central bankers are holding an emergency meeting. cnbc chief international correspondent michelle caruso-cabrera joins us now live from istanbul. michelle, a quick trip and i wonder if this last-minute meeting itself sends a worrisome signal to the market? >> well so far the turkish lyra has actually appreciated substantially since they announced the emergency meeting, but yes, there's a lot of concern. we're 45 minutes away from this meeting where they're expected to hike interest rates and dramatically. if you look at what's happened to the lir ra in the last 48 hours, you can tell the market widely expects some kind of interest rate hike. if you look at the longer term chart, you can see it has been hemorrhaging. there's been political upheaval in this country that's made investors nervous and the fed

tapering. listen to the expectations. possibly anywhere from 2% to 5% hike in interest rates here 45 minutes from now. in the united states we talk about a quarter of a percent. here they're talking about full percentage pourntsints and some think it could be as much as five percentage points. it's not a done dellal. they're under enormous political pressure not to raise interest rates. look at one of the front pages. there's a photo of the head of the central bank and the headline reads, square your shoulders, don't hike. the prime minister of the country is frightened that if interest rates go up that that's going to hurt the economy. he is seemingly unaware of the fact that massive capital flight can also hurt the economy, and as you pointed out at the very top, turkey is starting to become emblematic of the emerging markets as a whole. there's been great concern across many of these countries and a lot of investors want to look and see whether or not the central banks will do what they

think is the right thing in order to stem the decline and capital flight as well. so this could really set the tone for a lot of the other currencies and markets we follow. >> all right. and that decision due shortly. michelle caruso-cabrera thank you so much, as she stands by in istanbul this evening. interesting, we talk about central bank independence, but the federal reserve doesn't have to deal with the president standing up and saying they shouldn't ease. >> this is a really good example of why it's important to have central bank independence so they can make the right decision for that economy. that being said the world bank has already identified turkey as one of the countries most vuler innage to the fid'sed's taper or a rapid increase of interest rates in the u.s. i think what we're seeing is exactly the problem that emerging markets face. what happens when the taper comes or the taper is faster than expected andle lethe capital leaves -- >> are we making the argument that the fed is independent in

the u.s.? >> yes we are. >> i know in theory they're supposed to be independent, but the reality is we know there's discussions going on behind closed doors and i think most americans would say that they are not as independent as one might think. >> but do you think for the most part the people who are sitting around the table or in the board room as we should say during this two-day meeting feel as though they're not acting in what they actually think is the wisest thing for the central bank to be doing? >> i think there's definitely some discussions going on behind the scenes that influence -- >> they're obviously in touch with the white house. ben bernanke has lunch with jason furman. they want to keep lines of communication open. however, the fed has also been very active in criticizing congress and criticizing the administration for saying hey, we can't do this alone. we can't be the only institution in washington that is supporting the economy. congress needs to get its act together. they were very vocal during the debt ceiling debate. the idea that the fed is somehow kowtowing to the white house or

monetizing the debt is simply incorrect. >> what were you going to say, sharon? >> back to the emerging markets, a lot of investors are being told by their financial advisers, those i speak to that they need to make sure their portfolios are properly allocated in emerging markets. then they see something like turkey happen and they're thinking, okay so what am i supposed to do here? i think now is a very good time to make sure that people understand that that means you're supposed to be well diversified in emerging markets as well in these different countries, and that you have to be able to identify those that as michelle mentioned, are very vulnerable at this time and where your money really is in these funds that you may be invested in that are broad emerging market funds. i think that's something that's a lot of investors may be taking for granted. >> i think that's a smart point. certainly emerging markets have been a hot trade in recent years for investors and something to put some research into. as you can see with turkey though, politically strange times to which international investors are now exposed. i was reading about the prime minister blaming the bbc and

"the wall street journal" for some of the economic anxiety surrounding his country. the old blame the media attitude. and then we've got this literally this midnight central bank meeting that michelle was talking about may result in a 2% to 5% hike. so really astonishing. not the kind of thing you would see certainly in the u.s. >> well at least right now. >> right. >> general electric -- moving on to general electric shares they have been stuck in the mud. down over 6% from a week and a half ago when they released earnings. the worst dow performer this year. why did the ceo just spend $1 million of his own money buying up the shares? that discussion right when we come back. customizable charts, powerful screening tools and guaranteed one-second trades. and at the center of it all is a surprisingly low price -- just $7.95. in fact, fidelity gives you lower trade commissions than schwab, td ameritrade and e-trade. i'm monica santiago of fidelity investments, and low fees and commissions are another reason serious investors are choosing fidelity.

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welcome back. take a look at yahoo! shares. they've been on a bit of a roller coaster ride since releasing earnings. first higher now down 5% after hours. let's get more on what's behind the sell-off. josh lipton rejoins us. josh? >> yeah, kelly. a couple numbers just to flag for you as we make our way through this release. yahoo! saying that nongap net income of $130 million to $170 million, that's substantially below what the street was forecasting, so that could be part of the downside action we're seeing here about 5% right now. also as we get yahoo! reporting, we also get the latest financial results from alibaba, the chinese e-commerce giant. they give you the latest results from q3. revenue did pop 51% to $1.8 billion year-over-year, but,

again, maybe the action we're seeing right here, kelly, could be this nongap net income number which did come in below where analysts had predicted. back to you. >> all right, josh. thanks very much. now, this month alone general electric is often by 9%. it is the worst performing dow stock of the new year. today it's rallying a bit after jeff immelt told the world he thinks his stock is oversold by spending $1 million of his own money to buy shares of his own stock. should you follow his lead and buy some general electric? with us steven whitaker and zachary karabell. great to see you both. zach first to you. ge, do you like it here? >> i have owned ge personally for years not because i expect them to do extraordinarily well although frankly it did expertly well last year but frankly because i think it's a mega cap company that happens to be well run that has a lot of discipline that is trying to innovate and change although, you know, $140

billion, $150 billion revenue company as we have seen with apple, it's a pretty high bar to create something new. while they sold the network that we are currently on as a way of focusing their business i think they have executed as well as a large company in a relatively slow growth world could execute, and i imagine that's one of the reasons why immelt himself is buying more of the stock. >> sure. and it's trading around $25 today. so is it undervalued? >> i think there's 12% upside. i look at value in the industrial side separate from the capital side. you put 17 to 18 times on 2015 earnings, you get $23. you can get around $28. i think upside beyond that is a little tough. relative to other industrials, i think there's more upside elsewhere. but for ge as the other speaker mentioned, it's a big company. it's a challenge to grow it and you're starting to see a global

sink sink ron nis across a lot of industrials. >> you have a relatively respectable dividend yield. when you add that to a world where bonds are i think going to find a questionable range, it's going to be hard to know where the price of bonds are going to be and rates are pretty low, you have ge with a dividend yield that's been going up consistently. one thing immelt and the board has done they said we're generating a lot of cash. we don't know where to buy and where to extend we're going to give money back to the shareholders. i'm not crazy about the qege capital part. >> why has the stock been an underperformer? >> when you look at how much eps growth they will deliver, you're talking about 5% or under. a lot of that is a result of ge capital. its peers are operating with growth of 10%, 12%, sometimes 20% eps growth. investors would typically turn to the higher eps growth

companies without the ge capital risk. >> what do you think about the signal of a ceo buying shares? it's not usually the best gauge but perhaps immelt since he hasn't bought in some time this really should be taken seriously. >> there are two ways to look at it. this is clearly a sign of increased conviction in the company and their earnings trajectory and the global improvement we're seeing. on the other hand, if you look at all the times he's bought stocks over the last ten years, it's not necessarily been at the best timing from an investment level unless you take a much longer time frame in mind. >> zach what about you? >> i think you shouldn't try to gape out some kind of quantitative pattern based on ceo purchases other than to say he's in the company, deeply invested, he cares about it. i think he happens to be an impressive individual but that's a purely subjective approach. i'm going to take it at that, he's committed to the company he's running and he should be. >> zachary steven great discussion. we'll coopkeep an eye on those

shares. will illegal transactions be the reason bitcoin bites the dust? speaking at a hearing today, this coming on the heels of a high profile arrest of someone the twins were doing business with. we'll have the latest developments in this story next.

welcome back. we're looking at bitcoin which is edging back towards that $1,000 mark again, but new york's top bank regulators are holding a hearing on the virtual currency a day after the arrest of bitcoin entrepreneur charlie schrem's arrest. >> well, a group of five bitcoin entrepreneurs and investors testified in today's first panel right behind these doors. they downplayed the news of charlie schrem's arrest. he was vice chairman of the ed a advocacy group the bitcoin foundation. the panelists say the arrest show current laws are strong enough to regulate digital currencies. they urge leniency from regulators on digital currency startups today saying compliance could crush their ability to create and overregulation could drive them offshore. they also touted bitcoin's potential as a cheaper, faster way to transfer money than the

traditional ones offered by banks. here is tyler winkle voss of winkel voss capital. >> so the when bankers who have 3% credit card fees and stuff, their solution they don't have one. >> the tone of the hearing was civil. the superintendent of financial services for the state of new york, ben lawski saying regulators don't want to clip the wings of a new technology. one recommendation for union square partners fred wiltsonson, the u.s. should be more accepting than china has been. >> the lesson from the internet is anything china bans invest in. this is about freedom ultimately. >> the second panel continues as we speak. this is a two-day hearing. it will continue tomorrow. back to you. >> our thanks to mary thompson. i want to get some reaction from the group. it's interesting the way that this is positioned as a fight for freedom, but kate it was a

pretty big move, the arrest of these two guys. it's going to make a lot of people think twice potentially about investing in this space. >> i'm just thinking in terms of headwinds, bitcoin, turkish lira. just kidding. it's become a hugely popular trade and one bad apple i'm sure most people would say doesn't mean the whole fruit salad is poisoned. i lost track of my met faaphor there. this is a lightly regulated area that gives people a lot of concern. >> carol is this about freedom? >> first of all, i feel really bad for the winklevoss brothers who must be sitting in a wine cellar going can't we do anything right? i don't believe in bitcoin. anybody who is trading bitcoin is doing it in a similar manner you would going to las vegas and say this is fun. as i have said to you before i feel like this is the second coming of beanie babies except you won't have anything to hug

when the whole thing falls apart and i don't think any legitimate investor should be investing. >> but beanie babies also didn't facilitate drug trades -- >> you never know. you take take out the beans inside. >> the fact we're talking about greater regulation for bitcoin legitimizes it even more so and so that's something i think investors need to be concerned about or those that are investing in it need to think about and those that are potentially investing in it need to think about, and one factor though that may be in bitcoin's favor is what i have been covering so much is all this credit card fraud and how those -- >> absolutely. >> -- proponents of bitcoin say this wouldn't happen if we had bitcoin. so i think some folks who may not know much about it other than they've heard this term may say, okay i know i don't want my personal information stolen. so is this the answer? >> the hackers will hack directly into their account. i think it's worse. instead of hacking the

intermediary of who will protect you, they will hack into your account and you will have no recourse. >> there are no fees attached to it and that's the beauty. what do you think of that? >> it's anarchist to some extent. it says we want to allow for any kind -- we're going to turn a blind eye towards the choices and just allow for more choice. >> i agree with sharon. the fact we're holding hearings about this the fact there's potential of regulation indicates if you color within the lines, if you follow the rules, we'll leave you guys alone and this is a legitimate industry. it's only when they start getting involved with drug trafficking, heroin whatever that that becomes a problem. >> the head of the advocacy group is arrested with a drug trafficking and laundering. >> that's why we can't -- that's why the theory and what's actually happening are important here because while i think everyone will support potentially the idea of an experiment like this let's see what happens, let's not stifle innovation too quickly. at the same time if an important part of what bitcoin actually exists and is used for

is to get around the legal system, then that can't be ignored either. and the u.s. has been surprisingly open to considering bitcoin despite what it's used for. >> you're absolutely right. but i think what a lot of folks are trying to figure out is how can it work for me not just as a trade, but is this something that's really going to be a legitimate payment source for me and i think people are really grappling with trying to figure that out in light of all of these reports of fraud recently. that's something that really needs to be considered. >> we'll have to keep an eye out for the hearings and follow what's going on across the bitcoin industry. what's clicking on our website? "the hot list" is next plus we'll go live to washington for a preview of the state of the union address. catch our special coverage. i'm co-hosting along with carl quintanilla and john harwood. we'll be back in just a moment. tdd# 1-888-628-2419 can take you in many directions. tdd# 1-888-628-2419 you read this. watch that. tdd# 1-888-628-2419 you look for what's next. tdd# 1-888-628-2419 at schwab, we can help turn inspiration into action tdd# 1-888-628-2419 boost

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welcome back. we have earnings state of the union, the turkish central bank meeting. what's lighting up "the hot list"? let's ask allen wastler. >> the yahoo! earnings. yahoo! earnings any earns story really, what happens is we get a bunch of readers coming in that read the numbers real quick and leave real quick. but as people read that yahoo! report and found they were a little light on their first quarter projections -- >> and a thethe way the shares jumped around. >> we got two bites of the

apple. >> do you say yahoo? >> yahoo!. >> you mentioned turkey that story has been going for us all day. india saved the day, will turkey be next? what we're seeing right now is there's been steady traffic on that story. right now it's beginning to tick up a little bit because we're getting close to announcement time. our friends at "fast money" will probably have that one. finally a wonderful analysis from jeff cox. we've been talking about a correction coming a correction coming and so whenever there's a little dip, you get all these buyers coming in so that true correction maybe will never come and maybe it will be a case of sell in may, go away. he digs deep into the underlying fundamentals. fascinating read. people are gobbling that up, too, along with the turkey. >> allen, thanks. >> take care. >> lots to check out, cnbc.com.

let's send it over to sheila dharmarajan. shares. vringo. the two sides were unable to come to an agreement and that rate will cover ongoing royalties for sales of google ad words. ad words infringed on vringo's patent. >> 13% move sheila. thanks. take a look at this. it is a live shot of the white house where president obama is putting the finishing touches on tonight's state of the union address, but he does so in the face of some pretty weak poll numbers. just how bad is it for the president? that's coming up next. and be sure to catch that speech on cnbc. tonight i'll be co-hosting our special coverage along with carl quinntanilla and john harwood from washington. we'll be back after a short break.

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and guaranteed one-second trades. and at the center of it all is a surprisingly low price -- just $7.95. in fact, fidelity gives you lower trade commissions than schwab, td ameritrade and e-trade. i'm monica santiago of fidelity investments, and low fees and commissions are another reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. call or click to open your fidelity account today. welcome back. attention is shifting to washington where president obama tonight will be delivering the state of the union address, his fifth. he'll be addressing an electorate that isn't plizeased with the direction of the nation under his leadership.

eamon javers joins us. a poll didn't reveal very optimistic attitudes among the country. >> that's right, kelly. some tough political headwinds for the president going into the state of the union speech from this new nbc news/"wall street journal" poll. three data points to chew over starting with the overall job approval for the president. this is a number that's totally upside down from the president's perspective. approval for his job performance, 43%. do not approve, 51%. that is not a number that any white house likes to see going into a state of union or any other time of the year for that matter. also on the state of the economy, satisfied with the economy, 28%. not satisfied, 71%. and that is not surprising give the high rate of unemployment we've seen that's just been so sticky and so unsolvable it seems like under this administration for the past several years. and then on income inequality that's a theme that we expect the president to hit at some point tonight. look at this. washington should do more 37% agree with that statement. but washington should do less

21%. so the challenge for the president tonight, kelly, going into talking about income inequality is convincing most of the country that washington has a role to play there at all, and then, of course what that role appropriately or not should be. so a lot of challenges ahead for president obama when he comes up here to capitol hill this evening, kelly. >> eamon, when asked how they would describe the country, apparently the top two terms people replied with were divided and troubled. >> really bad feelings bad emotions in the country right now. it's a very divided political time in this country, and the president really lost a year politically in 2013 with a series of problems ranging from syria to the obamacare website rollout. now is a chance for him to have a little bit of a political reset. it's a new year a new state of the union. he's got a new agenda he's going to talk about, but largely he's going to have to do this heavy political lifting without congress where republicans still have enough power to block most of his domestic initiatives. so the president will talk tonight about using his pen and

his executive orders to do stuff that he can't get through capitol hill. >> eamon, thank you so much. we've got a busy night coming up. and carol, there are a lot of people who don't like a lot of people that don't like the sound of the president acting unilaterally saying, i have a pen. i have a phone. i'll do things that congress won't. >> not that it's a good trade-off, either, kelly. the one thing that's going to be the biggest disappointment here. it's going to be the treatment of small business. we're talking about jobs and about economy. we know that small businesses are the engine to create those jobs and help grow the economy. however, we get a lot of lip service. small business is important. when you look at the policies they end up hurting small businesses. >> isn't this all lip service? it's the state of the union. this used to be something different than the stump speech it has become right or left. >> right. a lot of people are going to stay that it's going to be a stump speech. we're going to hear the things we've heard before. what i thought was interesting, one of the points i saw in the poll, was 61% of americans are

satisfied with their own financial life where they stand, their financial situation right now. and how that will play into how they perceive what the president says tonight will be also be interesting. but getting away from that disapproval rating that's going to be difficult. >> it's going to be difficult. but i want to bring in ben white here cnbc contributor from politico. and it's the president's fifth state of the union address. it can't be that unusual for his numbers to be sinking like most presidents' do or maybe they don't, at this point in his presidency. >> well, his numbers are similar to where george w. bush was at this point, which is not a place any president wants to be. george w. bush never recovered from those negative approval ratings. he had the war in iraq to deal with. obama doesn't have that. but what he has is a very grim mood in the nation about the nature of this economic recovery. that's a very important statistic that 61% like their own personal circumstances but don't believe that the nation's moving the right way. and he has to somehow change people's opinions on the nature of this economy. you can't do that in one speech. >> the interesting thing to me if you ask people about their

personal finances, they feel better about them. consumer sentiment numbers have gotten better. i'm curious how much to take people at their word about how upset they are or pessimistic they are about the country when there are other indications that, you know, look, things have improved to some extent yeah. >> the problem is people don't trust in this recovery. they don't feel confident. they don't feel that their situation's going to get a lot better over the next few years because what we've seen in the last few years is good signs. the beginning of the year looks good. then, we backslide, then the confidence numbers go down. we won't have a congressional blowup on the debt limit. the only thing that will save obama is much better job creation, more wage increases. people feeling long-term better. you can't do that in one speech. but what he can do is talk economy. >> what is interesting you bring up an individual versus macro divide. we reported in "the washington post" this is one reason why the president is going to be

downplaying the broad academic issue of income inequality and focus more on the kitchen table economics that people are facing. such as long-term unemployment. his announcement of raising the minimum wage. access to early education. access to college for low-income students. those are the issues that affect people on the ground level. and i think that's where you're going to start to get the emotion, maybe the sort of emotional response to his agenda that he's hope willing carry forward. >> i think he's -- >> he doesn't have a lot of credibility on issues like the minimum wage for federal contractors when he just hired federal contractors to build a website and wasted $400 million. >> maybe if they pay them more. >> can he take steps to have more trust in his efficacy as a ceo. this is one of the things he's going to try to do to show results more easily. and he's going on travel right after this to pitch some of the ideas to kitchen table americans. >> what will be ingenuous to the private sector is the public sector is the one area where

right now, with the austerity movement kind of losing its teeth, it doesn't have to worry about the bottom line to some extent. so, when you have an increase in the minimum wage for a business or labor costs are going up generally, they have to rationalize that. but you can raise the minimum wage for federal workers. it's not necessarily going to have an immediate blowback effect. >> you're talking about 0.001% of the workforce. it's not going to have a big macro economic impact. it will help a small segment of the population. but the idea showing that he's doing something on this. he's going to try to get money in people's pockets and maybe get momentum for a minimum wage increase. but tin equality issue, it doesn't poll that well. only 37% think the government should do it. people are worried about class warfare warfare. you talk more about growth and getting growth for everybody, that might be more beneficial to him. >> all right. got to leave it there.

ben, great to see you. we'll be watching tonight. you can watch along with us. i'll be co-hosting our special coverage of the state of the union, along with karl and john harwood. the fun begins at 9:00 p.m. eastern. and you can watch "shark tank" at 11:00. it will be like a "shark tank," the political version. another merging market in the balance. what happens in the next few minutes could reverberate around the world. what you need to know about an emergency meeting of central bankers in cur can i, coming up in ex-. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting,

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welcome back. turkey's central bank expected to wrap up an emergency meeting any minute now. policymakers are trying to stem a steep drop in the country's currency, the lira. that could have an impact on the economy more broadly. the global economy, and even affect us back here in the u.s. want to get thoughts from our panel on this along with "the family's" melissa lee, who will have special coverage of this coming up. we expect the statement to hit at about 5:00 p.m. eastern. and looks like the market is expecting something in the range of a 3.5% to 4.5% hike. it will be interesting to see what they do here. melissa?

sorry, melissa, i don't think we're hearing you. >> okay. >> we'll work on the wires. in this obviously, we just talked about what india did. he's the head of that central bank. he's trying to make a point about defending the currency. now, turkey's in a similar position. but the pressure is on. and it's unusual that they're having this meeting. can you imagine the fed meeting. not only meeting, but coming out with a statement at midnight local time.unprecedented. we went through tumultuous times. >> they can pull something together. but this will be a real test to see if emerging markets can stand up to the global forces that will be working against them this year. are they going to be strong enough that they aren't plumled by rising interest rates.

>> melissa, go ahead. >> this is probably the most anticipated turkish central bank decision on the books. and the markets are expecting that hike. and we've seen the markets respond in large part to it already. without it brown brothers said you know absent that hike in the markets, you had outlined we will see a bloodbath, essentially in the emerging markets. we will continue to see the markets. the outpost has been strong. everybody is looking to this decision, which is why we are so tuned in to turkey which is a departure from what we normally do. >> i want to thank the panel for joining me the last hour. and melissa, over to you guys. >> thanks kelly. a number of breaking stories we're following. 5:00 on the east coast. midnight in turkey. that country's central bank