tv Street Signs CNBC January 29, 2014 2:00pm-3:01pm EST
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change in the labor force and any change to economic guidance. those are the three big things we will look at. we have jack, jack and barry, we have steve here, we got mandy, we got bill gross coming up. there's a lot to do. right now the dow is down 125 points which is about .8%. s&p down as well. there's your market setup. let's get a decision right now. >> beginning in february, the federal open market committee will reduce the purchases of treasuries and mortgage backed securities by a total of $10 billion. the new monthly asset purchase total will be $65 billion, commenting, the fomc saying the committee is sizeable and still increasing holdings of longer term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer term interest rates, support mortgage rates and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative. turning to the economy, the open market committee says since it last met in december, there are indications that growth in
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economic activity has picked up in recent quarters. labor market indicators were mixed but on balance showed further improvement. the unemployment rate declined but remains elevated. household spending expected to advance more quickly in recent months while the recovery in housing sector did slow somewhat. fiscal policy, the fed says, is restraining economic growth although the extent of that restraint is diminished. the committee also again turning back to the decision on asset purchases, the committee continues to see the improvement in economic activity and labor market over the period consistent with the growing underlying strength in the broader economy. yes, the committee also is reaffirming its successfully low target of zero to a quarter percent for the fed funds rate, well past the time that unemployment may in fact dip as low as 6.5%. the policy decision, the decision on today's actions was unanimous. back to you. >> that is the decision, $10
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billion as we were expecting. steve liesman, what do you think is the main takeaway here? always we see a bit of a knee-jerk reaction in the market. we either go down or up but it tends to settle after we digest exactly what the statement means. we are at session lows on the dow, we have ticked down to 160 points in the red. going into the decision we were down by 125. what is the key takeaway? >> i hate to compare all this to pornography but remember the old supreme court thing, you know it when you see it? what we saw in weaker durable goods, weaker employment and the volatility in emerging markets was not enough. we don't know what it is but that was not enough to dissuade the fed from tapering. we are not sure what the metric is. we've got to watch as time goes by but those separate things i just listed were not enough. >> if it had been enough to dissuade the fed from tapering today, would that have shocked the market? because it would have suggested panic and made things worse. >> i think so. it would have shown the fed to be on a much, you know, nervous
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trigger, when it comes to whether or not it would taper or not. it seems like this is something that the market expected, the fed had a willingness or desire to meet market expectations, felt it was the right policy. that's what they did. if i'm reading this correctly, this statement is reading very boilerplate like in terms of its comparison to last time. did you see anything different? >> i have to go through it. let's bring in our guests. we have two jacks in the box and barry knapp. are you surprised by the additional $10 billion in taper, disappointed or excited? >> no. this is exactly as expected. i guess i actually got accused recently of being like a librarian for my focus on history but if you think about 2004, the first cut came on june 30th. by august 10th, at the next fomc meeting, the bond market had rallied 30 basis points, yields had dropped, we had a weak payroll report but the s&p was down 7.5%. this time, the s&p was basically
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unchanged. we had the same drop in interest rates so for me, i couldn't see any real way that they would have stopped the process because of some increased volatility in e.m. and recent selling in the s&p. it just didn't make a lot of sense. >> just again, once again to reiterate for our viewers, the fed has decided to go ahead with the taper by another $10 billion to $65 billion per month of bond purchases and jack, this was i guess, if you are going to say steady and slow wins the race, this was about as steady and slow as you can get. it's what the market was largely expecting. >> absolutely. the fed has kept a stiff upper lip in the face of volatility from the emerging markets, seemingly slower economic growth. i thought maybe they would throw something in about the possibility of this polar vortex slowing things up a little bit. they didn't. i think this still fits into the whole thesis that tapering isn't tightening. we want to continue to move forward, move to the side of the
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stage and let -- >> jack, i will give you 20 bucks in the word polar vortex gets into the -- >> i will tell you what's not in the statement. >> will you add to that? >> i will. i just did a quick word search. i'm a little surprised. turkey wasn't mentioned. i didn't expect that. but emerging, no emerging. no mention of what we have been talking about the last week. >> it hasn't risen to that level. >> why not? when a currency drops 20% -- >> what currency? what currency? the turkish lira? you are a policy maker, you deal with the biggest economy in the world, you basically run global economic policy for a bunch of countries that tied itself to the dollar and you're going to mention the turkish lira in your statement? >> i don't know. maybe. >> sheesh. >> i think they should have thrown the polar vortex in. >> quicker than they would mention the turkish lira. >> i'm glad they didn't mention the weather because we have a winter every year. if they said -- don't you think,
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steve, if they said something like well, we're making note of the increasingly weak economic data because of the weather? >> i agree. there is one change, they did say make a further measured reduction. >> jack mcintyre, are you surprised they have not -- they did not mention anything about what we have seen around the world? >> no, i'm not surprised. i agree with steve in the sense this is probably happening a little too quickly for them to kind of digest it. i am a little surprised because i think they need to drive home that point that tapering does not equal tightening. they need to focus on forward guidance, on that there are still disinflation, deflationary pressures out there that need to be addressed. they've got to keep rates low and drive home that point to the markets. >> jack -- >> i don't think they did it based on this test. >> jack, one thing you brought up which i think is absolutely genius, because a lot has been made of labor force
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participation rate and some talk about whether people are simply quote giving up. the stock market has more than doubled since the 2009 lows. do you think there is sort of a bizarre juxtaposition here where because stocks have gone up, people have more money to retire so they are retiring so in a way, we may not hit the 6.5% unemployment rate in part because of what the fed itself has done. >> which is kind of counterintuitive. i'm a big believer in unintended consequences. it's part of this wealth effect and bernanke wanted this wealth effect to help create economic growth. i think one of the offshoots is that people's 401(k)s as you pointed out, they have increased in value. they can retire three or four years ago, they weren't in a position financially to do that. so we're seeing them do that. that's influencing the labor participation rate. it also has a disinflationary influence because those people tend to be higher wage earners, they are leaving the work force. it's another downward pressure
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on wages. >> this statement coming for the next couple days and the minutes of the report, we want to know how close a call this was for the center of the board. my suspicion, it wasn't a tremendously close call but maybe some of the rhetoric over the next couple days will change that. >> let's also check in with what's happening on the floor of the new york stock exchange. we are sitting around session lows, kind of interesting considering the fed pretty much did what most people i spoke to were expecting them to do. what was it in the commentary in particular that makes the market see this as a negative? >> i'm not sure there's much of a negative. if you take a look at the dow, we are slightly lower, but 20 points, 30 points off here. i don't know if that's terribly significant. i think the important thing is really there wasn't a lot of change. there was a slight change in the economic commentary right at the top, growth in economic activity picked up in recent quarters, last time they said economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, maybe modest improvement there. labor market indicators mixed
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but on balance, showed further improvement. last time they said labor market conditions have shown further improvement. i would say modest change in the economic outlook. other than that, the rest of the statement was virtually unchanged with the exception of course of them continuing on the taper program. we did see interest rates tick up, but very, very modestly. a few of the interest rate sensitive sectors like utilities, for example, moved but very, very modestly. you can see utilities moving to the downside. some of the other interest rate sectors moving to the downside. i listened to this discussion about why they didn't include anything on emerging markets. in the second paragraph, they say what they're supposed to be concerned about. consistent with its statutory mandate, the committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. it doesn't say and worry about what's going on in emerging markets. they say it right in the second paragraph. i think steve is exactly right on the fact that it was appropriate for them not to acknowledge that. back to you. >> i wonder if the volatility continues in emerging markets, i'm sure at some stage it will
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come further on to the radar screen. in the meantime, steve is showing me on his screen here the way interest rates were moving. you alluded to it -- >> you were right to make the point about the volatility in the moments after, because there is no signal. they shot up, the ten year yield shot up, shot right back down. >> a couple basis points? >> i'm just saying, the movement was -- >> the knee-jerk reaction. >> came back down and now it's back. >> who would have thought we would be here, 2.7%, at this stage in the cycle. rick santelli, where do we go from here on the back of what's happening today? >> there has been no moonshots. whether you look at the dollar index, one slightly positive, now negative, twos, fives, tens, 30s, they are actually now coming down below levels they were at. they were a slow burn, no big ranges. the big activity continues in stocks. traders down here think it's going to be a down 200 day. they think that's why rates are avoiding the upside and when it comes to the 6.5% threshold, the fed statement has a little bit
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for everybody. in one paragraph they say that it will remain at least as long as the unemployment rate remains near 6.5%. that is the end, they say. not necessarily true. we could have it well past 6.5%. sounds like this new forward guidance, they designed the building, they figured out the threshold but they don't want to live in it, kind of like the bank of england. that's what we're seeing here at the cme floor. >> we should remind everybody, that's zero interest rate policy. we hear that a lot. it's not a mork from ork character. jack, let's go back to you. does your advice or recommendations to clients change because of what you heard today? >> no. it really doesn't change. remember, this is more of a macro strategy the fed is trying to employ. i think they are just trying to get out of the center stage here with quantitative easing and go back to their traditional monetary policy. i will say my conversations with
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the fed over the last, say, two quarters, they do remain on notice if they have to raise quantitative easing once again, they are prepared to do it. i know they want to move to the sidelines, they are trying to move, ignore a lot of the noise, so to speak, but they are prepared to ramp it up if they have to. >> what we're in right now feels like the beginning of a global monetary policy tightening cycle. my question is if we continue to see the volatility like we have in international markets, is the u.s. economy now strong enough just as the fed is pulling away from the punch bowl, is the u.s. economy strong enough to be able to withstand what's happening offshore? >> oh, absolutely. the u.s. is at the center of the global financial system and it is still the driver in many ways of global economic growth. europe clearly plays a role in that as well. but the macro economic underpinnings in the u.s. and europe are getting stronger, no doubt about it. but make no mistake, you go back
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to 1945, every time the fed has reached this inflection point where they are no longer easing, i will defer to people who say this isn't a tightening, but no longer easing, you get a correct in equities. the policy suppresses volatility. once you remove that you get a pullback. >> i think it's significant that we are talking about another $10 billion taper and the long end, the ten year, is actually a little bit down here. the fed has been able to pull off $20 billion of taper here without a big effect on the key interest rate for the economy. i think as soon as it's breathing a sigh of relief on what's happening with the long end, a sigh of exasperation on the other side with what's happening with stocks. that's not something that it wants to happen. >> we will wrap it up, guys. a couple points here just to wrap it up. number one, we are basically down for the year at the level we were with the first taper back in december. it's not like we crashed. we are just sort of back to there. secondly, to mandy, your excellent point, 1% of u.s. gdp
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is exports to you were ueurope. next to nothing. steve liesman, thank you very much. >> he's jealous because he -- >> jack and barry, great analysis. thank you so much. coming up next, a cannot miss interview with pimco's bill gross. there's a lot to talk to him about. we will get his instant reaction to the fed, to the markets and the big changes happening inside of pimco. [ tires screech ] [ car alarm chirps ] ♪ [ male announcer ] we don't just certify our pre-owned vehicles. we inspect, analyze, and recondition each one, until it's nothing short of a genuine certified pre-owned mercedes-benz for the next new owner.
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welcome back, everybody. joining us now for a cnbc exclusive is pimco founder and co-chief investment officer, bill gross. bill, it's not like there's nothing to talk to you about today. we are probably going to hold you for about 30 minutes. we appreciate your patience. >> i'll be here. >> besides some of the obvious recent headlines, first, your reaction to the federal reserve. >> well, not much today, brian. it's obvious to me, it's been obvious for a few months now that the fed wants out. they want out of the qe and that means the taper and it means a continuous $10 billion reduction as long as the global markets hold together and they have, despite turkey. what we're seeing is an end of
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qe in october, early november of this year, and then importantly, a focus on the policy rate going forward. they mentioned 6.5% unemployment and lower, they have talked about a considerable period of time well past in terms of their language. what we're looking forward to after october of this particular year is a policy rate discussion that focuses on inflation as opposed to unemployment. when we focus on inflation, let me just get this point out before i miss getting it out. this friday, instead of employment friday, we've got pce, personal consumption inflation friday, and that number, that number is what the fed measures in terms of their 2% or 2.5% target. that number will be more important than unemployment over the next 12 months. >> just to reiterate, you see qe ending in october or november. we will talk a lot more about
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the economy and the markets and what pimco is up to in just a moment's time. first i would like to address the issue that everybody is talking about, and that is the surprise departure of mohammed el arian, who was seen as your heir apparent. what happened? >> well, it was a surprise to us, too, mandy. what we know and all we know is that he doesn't have a new job. he says that if one develops, that it won't be in the financial industry. that's an important consideration. so wall street and the city and london can breathe easier, i guess. where do we think he will wind up in 2015 and beyond? well, certainly somewhere i think at elevated circles of influence and that's almost for sure. but we're not exactly certain where he's going. we know he doesn't have a job. we are disappointed that he won't be with pimco, that he
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didn't continue with the successor role for me as chief investment officer, but that is the way it is and we will move forward. >> was it really that much of a surprise to you? because you don't have to scratch the surface too far to find many articles written about things such as a clash of strategy with you about tense moments between the two of you, not to mention of course the signature funds' performance last year which i think was the worst since 1994. did that not have anything to do with it? >> no, i don't think so. mohammed and i have been good friends for 14 years. i hired him twice. so that couldn't have happened unless we got along. you know, certainly we got along the second time. it's been six years as co-cios. we are neighbors. he's just down the street. we have shared joy and heartbreak with the 49ers and the jets on weekends. our families got together. there is no clash of personalities here. we get along real well.
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disappointment, yes, and as to why he's leaving, that's probably best left for mohammad. i know you would like to get it from me but i basically can't tell you. >> was it performance related, bill? >> i don't think so. let me point out that total return fund despite the withdrawals outperformed the market last year, has outperformed for two years, five years, ten years, 20 years. we're still providing alpha to the market. outperformance is still there. it's just that the total return fund, like all bond funds, has lost a little luster in terms of assets and money is moving from total return to ubf into alternative assets and we are doing well there. i don't think it had anything to do with performance. i think like an architect, he basically put in place a structure that will carry us forward over the next five and ten years and perhaps like an architect, he is moving on to another house. >> you know that i have been out to your headquarters a couple times and i think our viewers
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here know how smart mohammad is and how smart you are as well. i think the difficulty people are having is they look at you guys, they look at pimco, you built one of the most successful investment firms in the history of the world. it's a fantastic job, highly compensated, yet for some still unknown reason, he ups and quits which i think most people would find hard to understand. i'm sure you do as well. >> we do as well. i am disappointed, we're disappointed that when he came back here six years ago, we thought he would be my successor and be in place for 10 to 15 years. that's not going to be the case. we are disappointed. we understand that he does want to take a break, as they say, and if he doesn't have a job, at some point, you can't keep mohammad down. he moves twice as fast as anybody else at the company, so he will wind up somewhere at higher elevated levels. he's going to do very well.
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but pimco is disappointed. let me mention one positive thing. this morning we announced six deputy cios that fit rather neatly into our new structure, our global investment authority model, that mohammad helped to develop. it basically says that pimco is more than bonds. we are an alternative assets, stocks, commodities. i could go on and believe me, the company will go on. we will do very well. >> six deputies but only one cio, i.e., you now. you are in complete command now of pimco strategy. like the number one guy here. now you don't have a co-cio anymore. does this mean a change in strategy? >> well, i think it is going to change a little bit and it doesn't mean one is more powerful. actually, the six deputy cios, some of which are equity related, some are related to alternative assets, they all will have a particular channel
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of assets through which they are empowered and which they manage. doesn't mean like with the rolling stones song that they can do whatever they want. but sometimes, they get what they need. the committee basically will be chaired not just by gross but will be chaired on a daily basis by each of these six deputy cios. if anything, this is an empowerment, this is a sharing of ideas and we think this new format will function more quickly and more responsibly to the market. i'm really looking forward to this. i know that's what everybody says, but my wife said about two weeks ago one of these days, you are going to come home with a smile on your face as opposed to a frown. the last two days, i have had a smile. >> i'm going to follow up on mandy's smart question because with $1.9 trillion in assets under management, $1.5 trillion
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in third party client assets, the last time you were on the show, i asked you if you wanted to evolve pimco more into the equity side. you goes auys are known as bond you do a lot. you said yes. is this the beginning of a shift for pimco to become more of a hate to say full service shop because you will say we already are, why don't you know that, but you know what i mean. going more after the traditional equity investor. is this a seismic shift for pimco? >> not a seismic shift. it's something that when mohammad came back, let's put it on the table, when mohammad came back from harvard, he initiated your global investment authority. what does that mean? it meant we were simply not just burgers and bonds, gross eating at mcdonald's, but it basically meant we were moving to a cheesecake factory menu, where all assets, equities, alternative assets, diversified income. we've had in the last two years mark kiesle in corporates,
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others in diversified income, mos morningstar diversified managers of the year, one, two. the last two years, we have dominated the category. so we are full of talent and ready to expand that menu. it's not a significant shift but it's a continuation of mohammad's policies. >> we have a lot of people saying you idiots, why don't you ask him about his views which we will. we told you we would hold you for like 30 minutes. we weren't kidding. we will go to break and talk more about your views of the market. >> i want to talk more about the menu. >> let's take a look at the markets. down by 161 points but the dow did briefly a few minutes ago dip below the 200 mark. we are currently sitting at 15,763. the nasdaq is off by about 1%.
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you're watching "street signs." okay. so about 29 minutes ago, we got the decision and statement from the federal reserve. indeed, they did pretty much as the market was expecting them to do and are continuing with the taper by an extra $10 billion a month. the dow is currently down 153 points. it is certainly lower than where it was going into the decision but off its lows of the day. the s&p and nasdaq are also clearly in the red. let's get back to pimco founder and cio bill gross. just a moment ago we were chatting about how you want to be so much more at pimco than just a bond and burger shop. you want to try to reduce your reliance on bonds, raise your exposure to stocks. last time you were with us you mentioned you liked mexico, in particular the mexican peso. i don't need to tell you what's been going on with the emerging markets, right? what's your view on what's happening there? >> let's start from the top on this one. the global financial markets are still highly leveraged.
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there are levered positions everywhere in terms of what they call the carry trade and emerging markets are part of that. they yield more, they return more historically. the levered positions have been in emerging markets and as emerging market growth has disappointed, as some of the deficits, current account deficits in countries such as turkey and india, you know, obviously in argentina, other emerging market countries, as they disappoint from a gross standpoint and raise questions as to how the current account deficits will continue to be financed, then that money moves quickly. that's what we have seen over the past week or two or three in terms of emerging markets. they are slowing down. financial markets are reacting. >> are you buying emerging markets now? >> we are not. mexico is still our favorite. it's obvious that the peso is not doing well. it's joined the crowd, so to speak, in terms of going down and depreciating.
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mexico to me is still the best of the emerging markets. it's got half the debt of the united states. its wages are in some cases in automobile manufacturing and so on are about 15% of what we have in the united states. so mexico's a long term hold. it's just getting caught up in the vortex here of emerging market and delevering types of positions. >> all right, bill. last night i heard something in the state of the union, a lot of things said, but if i were to knock on your door, say mr. gross, sir, i've got a guaranteed decent return with absolutely no risk, you would probably slam the door in my face and say that's impossible. but that's what we heard last night in this new m.y.r.a. retirement plan from the president. it's not political. it's just anybody who said it, republican, democrat. what's your view on that? is it possible to have a decent return with no risk guaranteed? >> well, there is always risk. not risk in terms of the return of principal if our government
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is good to their word which in this case, i assume they would be. but relative to inflation and the depreciation of currency going forward, there is always risk. there is never a riskless investment. that's why investors have over historical perspective invested in risk assets and stocks and in bonds to provide a return relative to inflation. we haven't got that now and therefore, we're not in a riskless market, we are in an artificially priced market that will not necessarily reduce a return higher than inflation. so the president can talk and the congress can legislate, but this risk is not just a principal risk but a risk relative to the cpi and on friday to the pce. >> very quickly, about 16 times trailing earnings, the s&p 500, that's where we stand. i know you manage stocks as well. are we undervalued, fairly valued or overvalued in equities? >> i think we are fairly valued. to me it's obvious that
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corporations have been behind the big push in terms of higher prices with their buy-backs. as the fed pulls back in terms of taper and at the end of qe which has been important for stocks, that it's not a driving wind, so to speak, but at 15 times we're okay as long as growth remains at 2% to 3%. i think it will. >> that's the big if. glad to hear you're optimistic. thank you so much. long wide-ranging interview. appreciate your time. thank you so much. look at the dow, down about ten points. it went like this. >> tell you what is down. the ten year yield. it actually dropped below 2.7% just a minute ago. gradually moving further and further toward the exit. we are seeing downward pressure on the ten year yield. >> all realtors should stop and dance immediately. still ahead, we will talk more about the president's m.y.r.a. retirement plan. we sort of mentioned it. how exactly would it work? you are watching "power lunch." big fed day.
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stocks that are up this year but we found four names that don't get any attention at all that are up more than 10% already in 2014, which is pretty amazing considering the s&p 500 is down 3% this year. we know the big names. here are some of the names that get no media attention, until right now. alcoa. believe it or not. >> alcoa. >> they've had a big year already. boston scientific. forest labs and waters corporation, a lab science company. all our names, these names probably fairly familiar to our viewers. they don't get mentioned through the intricacies of tv timing but call them hidden gems. there you go. from street talk to talking numbers. every day we will hit one stock about the fundamental and technical perspective. today we focus on facebook. steven peitlar on the technicals, ron on the fundamentals. the average target price of
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analysts on the street of facebook is $62. the stock's at $54 and change. in other words, it needs about another eight bucks or so. will it get there? >> yeah. the probability is that it will. if you look at short interest which is a signal for what the buy side is thinking of the stock, there is almost no shorts there. solid background of improving fundamentals. in fact, i have the esteemed privilege of working with mark hahaney who has said the turnaround in the mobile business has been some of the sharpest turnaround that he's seen in his whole career. i think it does go higher. >> do the charts back that up? >> yeah. you know, the charts do back that up. really, this is as good as a chart can probably look given the broader market, what we have seen in the dow and s&p lately. what really catches our eye is that facebook has kind of been able to hold that old october high while the market and other stocks have not been able to hold their own support. what that tells us is that the stock was able to move to a
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fresh high. hold the old highs as support, buyers aren't willing to sell it even though there are some negative things going on in the broader market. generally that portends outperformance once the whole market turns around. we do like what we're seeing in the charts. >> two buys. throw out all the reports we read about facebook no longer being cool. >> apparently "street signs" has a facebook page. i visited it for the first time yesterday. got a really weird picture. >> my head is half cut off. >> i don't look grumpy, i look drunk. >> same thing. >> you're like hey, i'm mandy. >> my head's cut off. whatever. >> guys, thank you very much. speaking of checking stuff out, check out the online edition of talking numbers, part of our partnership with yahoo! finance. go to yahoo! finance, click on the cnbc and there you go. up next, the president's ambitious plan to change the way some of us save for retirement. the m.y.r.a. could it really work? >> first, what is coming up at the "closing bell"? >> good afternoon. we'll have a lot more on this
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market selloff and the global market turmoil causing it. we have top strategists to tell you how to protect your portfolio. also, yahoo! amid all this is having its own worst day in two years. coming up, we debate whether investors should have confidence in its ceo. speaking of earnings, we will also have instant analysis of a couple more facebook and qualcomm, the biggies to hit right after the bell. you can't afford to miss these market moving results. that and lots ahead. bill griffith might make a surprise appearance. tdd# 1-888-628-2419 searching for trade ideas that spark your curiosity tdd# 1-888-628-2419 can take you in many directions. tdd# 1-888-628-2419 you read this. watch that. tdd# 1-888-628-2419 you look for what's next. tdd# 1-888-628-2419 at schwab, we can help turn inspiration into action tdd# 1-888-628-2419 boost your trading iq with the help of tdd# 1-888-628-2419 our live online workshops tdd# 1-888-628-2419 like identifying market trends. tdd# 1-888-628-2419 now, earn 300 commission-free online trades. call 1-888-628-2419 or go to schwab.com/trading to learn how.
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look at natural gas. what has happened today may be the biggest one day gain we have seen in this future on record. we're looking at 10% jump here in natural gas futures, 572 was the high of the session, that's $5.72. the surge we have seen in natural gas prices could be attributed to the cold weather. the latest forecast from wsi says we will see persistent cold into march. add to that we will get a number tomorrow from the energy department that could show the largest withdrawal of natural gas from storage that we have
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seen all season. perhaps the largest on record. we are also looking at the fact that there may be some short covering here as we have this contract expiring today and of course, april becoming the next contract to watch. so we are continuing to watch here what is happening with natural gas futures and whether we will continue to see this surge in electronic trading after the close but many traders are going to be watching that number very carefully from the energy department and if it is bigger than expectations, some are saying withdrawal somewhere between 220, 280 billion cubic feet. we could see natural gas continue to soar. >> it's cold everywhere. everybody i talked to, do you live in a house or in manhattan? >> i live in a house with heating oil. yes, natural gas prices are skyrocketing but i'm still paying more. >> my heating bill in nat gas has basically doubled this month. i have spoken to everybody here. this is a big deal. >> this is a huge deal. it will really impact a lot of people's discretionary income. we talk about gasoline prices
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all the time. this is going to be the double whammy no one even thought about. >> they will when the bill comes. thank you very much. i know you are probably in a penthouse in manhattan with somebody stoking the coals. my heating bill literally went up a couple hundred bucks. not to a couple hundred. by a couple hundred. >> i know i'm going to florida straight after the show for a conference in orlando. you are saying it's very cold down there as well. >> 27 degrees. >> it's really going to hurt. >> people are using gas that never used gas before in the winter. pensacola, look at that. we talked about it. atlanta. that's atlanta, okay? i know you're thinking oh, they get a little snow. guys, they don't have salt trucks. they have like 70 of them for all of atlanta. >> look at that. >> people are sleeping in their schools. having been in the south a lot in college, whatever, i'm telling you, when this happens it's a shutdown. the weather we're getting in houston, new orleans, pensacola, charleston, great knee to the groin by jim cantore yesterday
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of a guy trying to bum rush the shot and this is unprecedented. this could be the greatest single threat to the u.s. economy right now. people will open up their bills and have sticker shock on their heating bill. >> are you surprised the fed did not mention the polar vortex today? >> no. >> okay. the state of the union was okay, a little ho-hum. it was also a nonevent as far as the markets were concerned. there was one thing the president said that made us all perk up. his plan to change the way americans save for retirement. the question is whether or not it can work. because tv is aspirational, a $10 million home movie theater. one house, one guy, $10 million. we will show you the theater. better come with a lot of popcorn. here at fidelity, we give you the most free research reports, customizable charts, powerful screening tools, and guaranteed one-second trades. and at the center of it all is a surprisingly low price --
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my ra. it's a new type of savings bond we can set up without legislation that encourages americans to begin to build a nest egg, and it's simple. workers can contribute through automatic deductions in their paychecks. they're backed by the full faith and credit of the united states government, and it's affordable. >> what will it mean for your retirement? joining us is sharon epperson and jeffrey lavine. first of all, it's rather difficult to say. not in its favor. we asked the same question to bill gross a second ago and that is how can you have a so-called decent return with something that's no risk? >> their definition of decent may differ from the person to person. i think the biggest part is it is encouraging people to get money into a retirement account, to start getting the habits formed at an early age. at least it's something.
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i agree, i agree, definitions -- >> it feels like almost nothing, wouldn't you agree, brian? >> i just don't know where are they going to get -- bond yields are at 2.75%. where are you going to get any return? >> well, this is going to be invested specifically in the government securities investment fund that federal workers can invest in. it's average rate of return over the last three years was a little over 2.75%. >> that's inflation. that's not a decent return. that's no return. that's inflation. >> it's more than you get in a high yield savings account, and we're talking about a program that's targeting low and middle income workers who aren't saving anything right now. they have no access to a workplace retirement plan. so this is a way to get, as jeffrey said, workers to start the discipline of saving for retirement, and you can't put a lot of money in here anyway. once you get to $15,000, that money then has to be rolled over to a private individual
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retirement account. it's just something to get folks started. >> there are no employment requirements here or is that unclear? >> it's very unclear at this point what the employers will be required to do. you see, what they're going to do is they're going to try to use theme as payroll deductions. there has to be some sort of coordination -- >> isn't this called social security? automatic payroll deductions, government run, low minimums. >> it's very similar. a lot of details we'll have to see how they're going to be worked out over time because, again, this is still relatively new. you know, reluctance of many employers to want to do something like this has been clear over the years because we have auto payroll deduction i.r.a.s that can be set pup. you can set one up now. people don't do that. exactly how beneficial is still up in the air because you have to opt in. >> we won't know how many employers will do this until the end of the year or probably 2015 because they're going to roll
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out this pilot program, encourage companies by the end of this year and expand it to more workers through their companies next year, but the key -- another key point here though is for those people who are part-time employees or may be switching jobs, had multiple jobs during the year, all your money can go into this my ra into the same account and it's run by treasury as opposed to run by your employer though your employer has to offer it. they're still looking for a financial agent. we don't know who the company is that will administer the program. they're rolling it out there as one of many options they have out there to get people to save for retirement. that's the key. >> we have to leave it there, sharon. thank you. jeffrey, thank you as well. one thing is for sure, i think my ra is going to be, i don't know, many permutations and combinations of that -- >> www.myra.com is a small canadian i.t. firm in vancouver. they're psyched.
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their domain value just went up. next up, speaking of big money, jeffrey, thank you very much, $10 million home theater. visual proof it actually exists. who found a magic seashell. it told him what was happening on the trading floor in real time. ♪ the shell brought him great fame. ♪ but then, one day, he noticed that everybody could have a magic seashell. [ indistinct talking ] [ male announcer ] right there in their trading platform. ♪ [ indistinct talking continues ] [ male announcer ] so the magic shell went back to being a...shell. get live squawks right in your trading platform with think or swim from td ameritrade. get live squawks right in your trading platform it's been that way since the day you met. but your erectile dysfunction - it could be a question of blood flow. cialis tadalafil for daily use helps you be ready anytime the moment's right. you can be more confident in your ability to be ready. and the same cialis is the only daily ed tablet approved to treat ed and symptoms of bph
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we'll introduce you to the king of home theaters. he not only builds home theaters, he builds them with a private mall in your house. let's take a look. >> people call me the father from theater, the godfather from theater. >> he designs outrageous home theaters for wealthy clients who love watching movies. hollywood "a" listers, sports stars, heads of state, they all pay the godfather big money to create movie magic. >> beyond just theaters, he also designed massive entertainment spaces. one super rich client asked him to create a shopping mall in his mansion. another guy wanted an entire village in his backyard. complete with guest villas, an arcade, and, of course, a mega home theater. and what's really interesting is that the home theater business
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in the u.s. is kind of stabilized. where the growth really is is with the rich russians, the indians, the saudis. they are building the indoor malls in your basement. it's just insane. you will see a lot more tonight. >> indoor mall. >> that was a new one for me. i have sieen a lot. >> why kay's jewelers? >> they like to pretend how the other half lives. >> you have to show up in your own basement and there's going to be a geriatric club walking around at 9:30 in the morning. >> like a radio shack and a k-mart. >> thank you so much. let's take a look at what the markets are up to. >> tease where you're going to be tomorrow. the dow is down 196. >> the dow is down 196. >> what are you doing tomorrow? >> let's get that out of the way. >> tomorrow will be doing a live show split with you and me in not so sunny orlando. i believe it will be very cold
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for the td ameritrade annual conference. we will have the ceo, and he's going to be on the show. >> good insight. >> we'll talk to him about what the retail investor is thinking. >> go see the duck walk at the peabody. thanks for watching, everybody. >> "the closing bell" is next. and stocks trading in a wild range today after the fed deciding to continue easing up on the gas pedal. welcome to "the closing bell." i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange where it's gone from bad to worse and, simon, we're sitting near the lows of the day. >> i'm simon hobbs in for the illustrious bill griffeth. the market continues to react to the fed's move by reducing its bond buying program by $10 billion. yesterday's rally is largely
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