optionsxpress by charles schwab. breaking news here. stocks kicking off february with an ugly start. the dow closing down more than 2%, suffering its seventh triple-digit drop this year. the s&p 500 seeing its worst february start since 1933. the nasdaq closing down more than 100 points for the first time in more than two years. and the russell 2000, entering correction territory intraday. i'm melissa lee. our traders are tim seymour, brian kelly, karen finerman and guy adami. should we feel panicked right

now? guy? >> no. you shouldn't feel panicked. we have been talking for weeks how we thought we needed to trade down to 1760-1765. you got those levels. we talked about the potential for it to breach. i think 1725, the levels that we sold off from mid-september, is critical that we hold. i think we're going to test it. i do think the first time we get down there, we're going to bounce. i do think the market's broken. if that means you should panic, panic. i don't think you should be panicked. i think you should have a plan. we've done a good job navigating this one. >> karen, are you getting concerned about this point? a lot of people would look at the markets and look at what happened today. the s&p 500, not only did it fare poorly, it closed at a session low. it wasn't technically a good market, either. >> it wasn't. i guess i would like to see further confirmation to the data that was so damaging to the market today i think there's a lot of qualifiers to those

numbers. but if february comes and we don't see improvement, then i'll start to be nervous. the market might be a lot lower by then. but at the very, very end of the day, i sold today, which was painful and counterintuitive. but i think we're going to bounce from here. >> it's funny. i looked at voltivety, i think you could still ad. you're smarter than me, though -- >> smarter than i. >> smarter than i. i look at the data. and there's no question that the number was poor and it was a linchpin for markets. but when i look at the data in the u.s. over the last two to three weeks, i don't see anything falling out of bed. and i look at the stock market, i look at extreme positioning. the nikkei tells you all you need to know. japan went up 56% last year. and that's a strange event. if you look at what's going on in markets, the extreme trades are places where people are throwing things out the window. if you look at utilities and

places where people can collect, why not just some rotation? and clearly, no one ever said that the world was a perfect place, in terms of where the economic data with us. we have a lot of choppy data here. but there's no reason to panic. >> even bearish? short the markets? >> still short the markets. short almost all of the markets, even the nikkei at this point in time. people haven't panicked yet. you want to buy the panic. we haven't seen that. all i've heard is buying opportunities. guy is the only person who said selling opportunity. everyone else is saying buy opportunity. you start to hear people panicking, saying, i have to get out. that's when you buy. we're not there yet. >> in terms of panic -- i don't want to throw that term around. but we are looking for a degree of panic because that would indicate some capitulation in the market. >> i agree with that. >> what would that be in your view? >> the volumes have been larger on the dow. they said big volume today.

i don't think today is that day. you're going to see it in the form of a day when the s&p is down 20, 30 handles. has a bounce and a subsequent move to the upside. but i don't think you've seen panic at all, which is scarier than the move would indicate, if that makes sense. >> we're too complacent. >> the market has been too complacent, in my opinion. and they've been right. something that we talk about. people have been right for the wrong reasons. which doesn't mean anything because you still make money. but at some point, you have to examine why the market is where it is. >> is the bond market telling us something? in 10-year yield, should we be paying attention to to that? >> of course you should. the bond market was telling us when it was trying to break 3%, that it was breaking for the right reasons. no question that you're seeing rotation. no question that also, for a lot of guys, when you saw them

moving bond yields, that was an opportunity to buy. just guys that play bond yields. out of trade this market. tactically, to this point, able have been able to buy volatility relatively cheap. and using etfs to short the market. that will use in the first phase of a sell-off. that will not work forever. if you're long single-name stocks and trying to hedge them with an s&p as the index, that's dangerous. it works in the first phase of a sell-off. be careful. >> if you want a quick rule of thumb. markets tend to sell off or go higher in the middle of the sell-off, the news tends to back up that trend. we're probably about halfway through the sell-off. we had that ism today. markets accelerated lower. that's a quick rule of thumb. we're probably down in a couple weeks. >> our next guest says there could be 16% downside ahead. joining us now is dennis garmon. good to see you.

>> always good to be seen here. >> on top of the 5%, another 15% from here? >> i think 15% from the top that we saw a couple weeks ago. we still have quite some way to go down. last monday was the first time in a long time i've been bearish of the stock market. i talked about selling calls. talked about buying derivatives to head up positions. i think neutrality is the best you can have at this point. the best to be is to the sidelines. i hesitate to call it panic. but i think this thing has distance to the downside, which dougy cass says. risk happens fast. ands aric has happened fast here. >> how much do you have in that call? not just on the sidelines. are you short the market? >> it's still a bull market. and the old rule is, there's only three positions one can have in a bull market, real long, modestly long or neutral. i think the proper position is to be neutral. you can't say that a bear market has started until you've broken the trend lines, until you have

rallied back, failed again, start to move lower. i'm not willing to say this is a bear market at all. i think you just going to have a very severe, very substantive and quite ugly correction that will probably make a lot of people wail and gnash their teeth before it's done. >> kudos for you. i know you came on last week and reversed calls on some things that you think you wanted -- you felt like things had changed. help me understand when you make the call for another, 8% here, what it is that has triggered this view for you? it wasn't long ago, you were concerned about rates moving into the 4% range. and that was a few months ago. a lot has changed since that point. what, though, in the last week, would you say is the defining moment here that has people so scared? >> data. data. i really do think that the ism number today was really very discouraging. the fact that the chinese ism number was barely above 50. problems in europe that are incumbent.

obviously, everybody now knows about the problems in the emerging markets. any one of those in and of themselves are probably inconsequential and can be averted and wouldn't be detrimental. would be bad for stock prices. throwing china into the pot, argentina into the pot, throwing weakness in the polish latty in the back. weakening ism numbers into the pot. breaking trend lines into the pot. and you have economic data and psychology that is, i think, disturbing. >> dennis, it's b.k. you got me hungry over here. i'm curious. your newsletter goes out to every major investor in the world. when you talk with clients, do they share your view of another 8% lower? or are you getting pushback? are you seeing panic? >> i'm getting pushback more than anything. it's as if, no, everybody is relatively complacent about it. it's something to be expected. oh, what's 5%? you and i both know 5%, if

you're on margin, can be very disconcerting. i think there's more to be done here. on balancbalance, i'm getting pushback. people are saying, i'm not worried about it. >> dennis, we're going to leave it there. thanks for your time. dennis gartman of the gartman letter. dennis is not seeing panic yet. that goes to your point about come pl complacency in the market. >> if you're trading, you should never be panicked. it should be opportune. investors sit around and have been rewarded handily. you have to have a good look at the market and say, is this a time where i pull the rip cord and re-evaluate? you can get back in. we'll see what happens if we trade down to 1725, if we hold or bounce. dennis says 1475. i'll go one further. i think you could push down to 1425 if the technicals start to break down, which was the low we

made last year at day one of 2013. >> initially, you're saying 1725, as a base. >> that's -- if you go back and look september 19th, i think it was the day, we stopped out 1725. we traded down to 1650. past resistance becomes support. >> that would be a base, not a bouillabaisse. >> and you would look at 1700. >> roughly 1700. that's your 200-day moving average, if you take a regression channel all the way back to 2012. that would be a two-standard devuation move. there's multiple things to get people buying. hopefully we see some panic and market turmoil headlines. still ahead, we'll tell you which stocks are screaming buys right now. yum brands, the parent company of kfc and pizza hut are shooting higher. could that be a bright spot in the market tomorrow?

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welcome back to "fast money." a look at that sea of red. the s&p 500 closing down more than 2% today. pretty much at session lows. only 9 of the 500 stocks close in the green today. this is the worst start to a february since 1933.

yum brands could be a bright spot in tomorrow's session. beating estimates moments ago. >> a nice pop here in after-hours trading after the results were released for yum brands. china is huge for this company, with half of the revenues coming from that country. there were low expectations going into this report, given the concerns about bird flu and poultry investigations. let me run you through the numbers. earnings per share came in higher than analysts were looking for. 86 cents versus 80 cents. revenues came in below estimates. still, year over year, they did show growth. if you go through the numbers, there's not a lot of optimism. same-store sales, that's one that everybody looks for when it comes to these restaurants. restaurants open at least a year. down 4% in china. that's a key one everyone's watching. analysts were expecting that. down 2%, actually, in the united states. analysts were looking for growth in terms of that number.

the ceo of the company acknowledged that it was a pretty tough year when it comes to overall china sales, especially for kfc's hit on those. a brutal year there. david novak, the ceo, acknowledging, 2014 looks like progress in china. we strengthened our poultry supply chain. made significant progress in rebuilding consumer trust in the kfc brand. you see the weakness in china, specifically in kfc and a little in pizza hut, as well. and you wonder, why are shares popping? keep in mind, perspective. shares of yum brand have been flat over the past 12 months. going into this report, there were low expectations, given the struggles they've been seeing in that country. perhaps the fact that they met wasn't too bad. ceo cited progress, perhaps a buying opportunity. the call tomorrow morning, 9:15 eastern time. >> thank you, sara eisen. and the fact they had dismal december stores in china. that was the word on the street

here. >> they've gone down from minus four. in mid-january, they gave same-store sale indications. they cam back down 2%. and dave novak is one of the best in the business. the negative news, as sara pointed out. it had been priced in the stock for the last six weeks. this stock had broken out and traded near 80 bucks. mid-60s is where this stock tends to bottom. this is a stock that i would buy here. on the pop, it doesn't matter. the stock had gone down to 66 bucks, which is where it levels on a two-year basis every time. 19 times this is bargain territory for these guys. they don't need to grow mid-15%. >> top trades. michael kors falling as the company gets set to report earnings before the bell. we had a dismal second quarter from coach. the expectation is that michael kors is continuing to take share. >> yes. i think that is very likely what happened. and kors has been killing it. i don't know that they've missed since they reported, actually. >> they have not.

>> continually surprise to the upside. expectations are high going in. but the multiples actually come in a little bit. and i mean, i sold the stock way too early. but i would not short it here. if anything, i would be long. >> michael kors is 27 sell-off. ralph lauren, 18. tiffany, 21. >> valuation hasn't been a concern yet. if they miss, that's what everybody will be talking about. i think the trade is you wait and see what happens, as i've said with a number of stocks. you hope they miss. hope they knock it to below 70s. then, take a shot on the long side. down 4% on the day, you're in no man's land. at&t, dropping its data plan prices. and the stock drops, as well. shares falling nearly 4%. making it the worst performer on the dow today. tim? >> you can't own wireless companies when there's predatory pricing in their sector. this has been going on in the u.s. for a few months. real predatory. and you have a company that i've said many times, for the last year and a half, should have had

the wind at their back. this is not a name you can jump into. this goes around globally. not just in this country. this is a place where you're whittling out competition. therefore, the competitors that want to go after each other have a better job to do it. i would be staying away from this stock. and lightening up around the world in places where they have growth. i sold out of vodafone. and i've been selling some of the carriers. >> you look down the line here in what's going to happen. you have a price competition. once they squeeze all of that out, they're going to start squeezing the suppliers, like an apple, for the subsidies. that's down the road. that's six months down the road. that's what i would watch for. >> and the only stock finishing in the green, pfizer. experimental breast cancer drug succeeded in its trial. that's something to be optimistic about. >> it was a small press release out of pfizer. it could be huge. some people are saying $5 billion by 2021. a lot of people similar numbers. but there's a lot of hurdles on

this one. you buy pfizer for a lot of reasons. i don't think this is one of them. with that said, great dividend, 3.5%. voluation is reasonable. like the fact it was up on a take. i think it's okay here. >> the stocks moving closer into correction territory, our traders are put together a list of what they are buying. the "fast money" shopping list is straight ahead. and all the rant today, twitter closing in the green ahead of the company's first earnings report. we have someone with an underperform rating to tell you what he wants to hear in that report. when you order the works

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take two interactive, a raise in its third quarter, boosted by grand theft auto 5 and nba video games. it beat expectations. but it did come in below forecast. the company sees 2014 sales and profits a bit above analysts' expectations. investors in the after-hours seem to be focused on the short term guidance. stock down 1.6%. >> thanks a lot. guy? >> crazy to see a five-year high today reverse. now, it's lower again. big volume day. traded three-times to four-times normal volume. i thought the full-year guidance was really good. the next quarter guidance was lousy. this stock interested me. you'll have a bit of a flush tomorrow. it will get interesting. i don't know what to do tomorrow. but this is one you have to watch over the next few days. >> twitter is one of the few stocks managing to end the day in the green, ahead its first

earnings report. joining us is wells fargo senior analyst, peter sager. i would say there's a little hangover from the super bowl. i know it's a big -- it might be a stretch. but does that just go to the idea that twitter has now become something that everybody turns to? and so, it will be able to monetize that popularity even more than what people like you, analysts on the street, might be expecting? >> well, i think the bowls are hoping that, melissa. when we look at the super bowl and twitter, we see a ton of engagement. but we see only 3% more tweets than last year. the dynamics of the game were a bit different. but we also think that the total user base of twitter is, perhaps, more than 25% larger. i think rather than that growth number, first and foremost on the mind of investors is how

fast is twitter growing its base? and are engagement metrics improving, as well? >> are you surprised about the bullishness in twitter? there's two lockups coming, a bigger one coming in april. >> i'm not surprised. if you talk to advertisers or agencies out there, we do this frequently, you'll find that social media, the most significant evolution in digital marketing since the advent of search. this is something that every, single marketer is thinking about. the question we have, though, is what are the potential limiters to participation in twitter? and we do think that overall user growth and the speed at which twitter acquires users is really important. we think the engagement metric is really important, as well. no social platform has been embraced by mainstream media to the extent that twitter has. we think that's great news. we just like to see the numbers in terms of engagement before we kind of buy into what we think are estimates that perhaps

overly discount some of the challenges going forward. >> getting into the valuation side of this, which i think plays into your -- i'm not sure if they're growing fast enough to monetize in this space. but they've had increased investment spending. you have a place where, in a world where they need major scale, somewhere in the next few years, to prove that this model is working, how do you think they're going to get it at a time when ultimately, the digital ad spending can only go to so many people in this world? >> well, look at the -- we think there's significant opportunity for growth. one thing that investors will be watching carefully is the quote/unquote arpu gap between international and the u.s. twitter is an international product. you look at the fact that it's monetizing, 10-1, u.s. versus international. facebook has a significant discrepancy, as well. its gap is not as large.

they can look at a closing of the gap as proof that modernization could ramp. when the ad revenue per user is in the 28 cent to 30 cent range, that is very low and has room to grow. if that gap narrows more rapidly than it has in the past couple quarters, i think that would be welcomed by both. >> peter, going to leave it there. peter stabler, downgraded twitter to an underperform december 16th. guy, to choose? you like the game. i think a lot of investors play this game on their own. >> force to choose. >> facebook or twitter? >> facebook. forced to choose? >> yes. >> facebook. >> okay. >> i think facebook's business makes more sense to me right now. i love twitter. i love everything about it. i can't wrap my arms around the valuation. i think it's a supply story. supply meaning the amount of stock out there. once a float starts to come in, i don't think twitter will be trading at the prices we're seeing now. >> i would agree. i would take facebook also.

they've shown they're gaining a lot of traction. improvement in twitter? we don't know yet. >> the risk expiration with the buy side being so high on this name, going into their first earnings numbers, i don't know why you need to be a hero owning twitter into that. >> tomorrow's facebook's tenth anniversary. and our colleague got a chance to speak to mark zuckerberg. i'll have a little of that interview tonight on "fast." meantime, the traders take us shopping on their best buys. it wasn't a down day for everyone. the super bowl commercial that helped lift a struggling stock. will it last? spark your curiosiy tdd# 1-888-628-2419 can take you in many directions. tdd# 1-888-628-2419 you read this. watch that. tdd# 1-888-628-2419 you look for what's next. tdd# 1-888-628-2419 at schwab, we can help turn inspiration into action tdd# 1-888-628-2419 boost your trading iq with the help of tdd# 1-888-628-2419 our live online workshops tdd# 1-888-628-2419 like identifying market trends. tdd# 1-888-628-2419 now, earn 300 commission-free online trades. call 1-888-628-2419 or go to schwab.com/trading to learn how.

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welcome back to "fast money." we're live at the nasdaq market site in times square. the stocks selling off today. but we have someone who says there's a rally somewhere. well, in bonds. joining us know is the head of u.s. interest rate strategy for the firm. great to have you with us. >> thanks for having me. >> you say that bonds are not a leading indicator right now. with the ten-year yield at ten-week lows, what is the bond

market telling us, if anything? >> the bond market is telling us that positioning got complacent. that's true for most markets. investors have a narrative that rates were going to go higher. i would not view the rate as a view on fundamentals at this point. not yet. >> you say we're entering the second leg of a bond rally. where do you see yields? at that point, what will it will telling us? >> we have a substantial move, going from 3% to nearly 250. we have to start to see data weaken even further than where numbers have been coming in at. the numbers aren't that horrendous. but expectations were so high that we were going to start off the year with growth on par of over 3%. and people were extrapolating that this growth was going to tonight, based on what we saw in the fourth quarter. now, there's a reality check.

in the grand scheme of things, we're still growing. >> george, brian kelly. i'm curious if you think the fed has painted itself into a corner, that when tapered, you get lower rates. now, if the economy weakens and they taper, you get higher rates and you choke off the economy, the exact opposite that they want to do. >> there's a tango going on. that's been the case since they introduced qe. and the hope and the intent is that you get the sustainable recovery that the rates are rising because there's growth behind it. we're still skiddish around that idea. the fed tapered because they they're being optimistic. now, we're seeing an exact repeat of the episodes, risk assets suffer more than bonds. >> what's the downside on yields? what levels would you be looking for? >> if we break through 250, it's no longer a positioning story. and it's the market telling you

something about where they think the economy's heading to next. at these levels, a lot of this is washed out. i would not expect a much bigger movement here. other than if we get some sort of shots coming out of e.n., that could happen at any time. china's story a longer-term story. but it's an issue to contend with. going meaningfully under 250 will provide pretty good shocks. and we have nfp this friday. and we have yellen next week at her first testimony, to get the rates lower than here. we have to see a weakening. >> george, great speaking to you. thanks for your time. george cancalves. guy? >> three things shock me. the fact that the folks have the show on in the background. very nice. i caught that. by george. i think that ten-year is going to 2%. i think deflation has been the enemy all along. i think that's where things are headed. that's been the enemy that the fed has been fighting successfully for a while.

but i don't think you can beat it. it's like fighting a land war in asia. >> 2%, that means the markets are -- part of that forecast is that the markets are going to be sharply lower? >> rates are going higher for everybody. you talk about trades. >> that's a sharp decline in the markets that you're forecasting. >> we talked about it before at the top of the show. if it doesn't hold 1725, we have a chance to see 1500. dennis is 1475, i'm sort of in that camp. >> markets heading closer to correction territory after a disappointing january. what should you be buying at a discount right now? karen, you made a trade right before the close. >> i bought apple, which i had been watching closely since the earnings call, i'm sure a lot of other people were, as well. i'll probably get a lot of twitter feedback on this. when i sold it, i got a lot of, you're ugly. i don't know what i'll get having bought it now. >> you're hot. >> maybe. it was a valuation thing for me. >> getting personal.

>> and underperforming. underperforming. finally, it actually, i thought it held in there really, really well. it didn't go into the red until just before the close. and i bought it a tad under 501. so, right around here. >> at one point, you said you would buy apple. that was before the earnings report. >> yes. i think it was around 475, 500-ish, i said i would buy apple. i'm indifferent. i thought the economy would be getting stronger and you could have an over reaction up to 700. i would pear that back at this point in time. >> what would you go shopping for? >> whirlpool is a name. 160 down to 125. just like that. i think around 113, 115 bucks, you definitely jump on this game. these are guys that just reported and they reaffirmed 2014. what's happening here is everybody assumes, because they get a lot of their sales from emerging, that these guys are in

trouble. they just reaffirmed with all that's going on. they just told you that 2014 -- j.c. trades at 10 1/2. 8-times 2015. this is a valuation i can own. and it's the currency concerns that people i think are pricing in. meanwhile, some of those have been priced into the stock. so, whirlpool, very interesting. >> beakers? >> you mean, besides tinfoil hats and zombie repellent? i would buy gold. gold did well today. a weaker dollar. but it does appear that gold has bottomed here. and i think it goes much higher. >> the minors were not as strong as you would have 2409 they were. >> they are at the mercy of the broader market. tim was on this minor trade, early and correct. what am i looking for? i think fedex sets p interesting. but the one that sticks out to me is boeing. as it approaches 20-times earnings, historically, it gets expensive. now, it's at levels where fedex gets interesting.

between 115 and 118, i think you could trade down to. i think you buy it because you want to buy companies whose businesses aren't broken. and i don't think boeing business is broken. big movers. a pop for aol. guy? >> it's an interesting stock. i would say avoid this. but in the earnings, you can own aol. i like it here. >> big drop for fire eye, down 9%. >> announced the secondary. that's what you should do as the management. you buy this on this. >> drop for joseph a. bank, down 5%. >> this stock was down because there was a story, i think purposely leaked they are looking at eddie bauer. that would be a terrible move for them. >> ryanair, they're up, tim? >> airlines have worked this year. stay in this one if you're there.

>> and a pop for self-awareness. radio shack scored big in last night's super bowl at a commercial poking fun at its outdated image. it shows '80 icons storming into a radio shack. it ends in a sneak peek at newly-remodeled stores. whether the electronics retailer will reconnect with customers remains to be seen. shares of radio shack closed higher, 3% today. >> ponch looks fantastic. >> who? >> ponch. erik estrada. come on. >> oh. >> yeah. >> if that's a reason -- >> is that mary lou retton? >> and the fro on kims. nice. >> if that's the reason, that's a terrible reason. >> they should change their name also. radio shack, is a little -- >> the shack. >> and with the '80s call, they would like their -- >> that's a great pull by you. >> love geek humor.

>> coffee prices are on the move today, with a dry season in brazil. taking a closer look for us. >> big move today. it's up 21% in the month of january. so, what's interesting about this is you saw starbucks down about 2%. and starbucks does hedge a bit in their coffees. but it's a small portion of their cost. that you have to talk about rent and employees. don't trade starbucks on this. but do watch out for these coffee prices going higher. it doesn't look like the weather down there is getting any better. in fact, i think you buy starbucks because of this weakness because i think the market's incorrect here. >> i know we got a hop. can we -- we always bash analysts. remember the igt analyst came on this show after his downgrade when the stock was 20% higher than this. downgraded starbucks. a lot of people -- nice call. got to give props when props are due. >> that's true. we'll rip you when you deserve it. financials among the worst performers today. is there more pain to come?

we look at the action behind the sector. plus, the emerging eem is down 11% so far this year as emerging markets remain in the focus of the mobile sell-off. our next guest says they're screaming buy. should you? that's next.

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financials getting hit hard today. some traders see more pain to come. brian sellers has more on this. what did you see today? >> it's not unusual when we start to see things roll over in the market. people rushing for protection. especially names that are growth names. like the s&p 400 mid cap index. we saw volatility production buying in there. that's why you saw trade 26-times their daily value. people rushing for insurance. other names like american express, trading three-times their daily put volume. but wells fargo had heavy activity in the put area. >> and you were looking at a trade in wells fargo? >> this was the one that was opposite from everything else going on in the market and all of the volatility today.

we saw one, big trader sell almost 13,000 put spread. basically what they're doing is they're saying they want to get long wells fargo at 44/45. if you're a "fast money" trader i wouldn't be surprised to see wells fargo trade back up here. guy talked about 2% in the ten-year. if that happens, wells fargo is a name i want to know and own. the only other name i like is prudential. but wells fargo is looking attractive in these sell-off. >> thanks. brian stutland. there should be a screaming buy according to our next guest. let's bring in larry mcdonald, senior director at new edge. this is a contrarian call at this point in time. >> how do you define screaming? >> i have to be careful at the

word screaming. the model we have measures the capitulation. that's the key, measuring how deep we are into the panic. the een is close below asset value. that's historically extremely unusual. and then you look at the outflows. record outflows for three, four weeks. and you look at the capitulation volume itself in the shares. 10, 15 days, close to 800 million share traded. pure mathematics tells you, we're getting close to the point where there's nobody left to sell, where you could get a 10% rally inside of a bear market. >> your pointing out what's going on with the cds in china. and how that compares in time frame. >> the cds in china is unusual about this tells you more about the dangers of the intermedial term. cds is trading five to seven

base points tighter than mexico. tighter than panama. a year ago, china was 100 basis points, 45 basis points tighter than both of those credits. it tells you that the epicenter of risk is moving very much to the east. so, that tells you something about the intermediate term, risk, in that part of the world. >> how institutional do you think this trade is? i see this all the time. i talk to my prime brokers. i get the fact that people are scared to death about emerging. 5% of the eem were deconstructed in two days. outflows and emerging. i think it's overdone. what do you sense from the institutional side of this trade? >> i've seen some institutional buyers today. but you're right. retail is terrified. just look at the -- what are the lessons we learned in the last six months? outflows on treasury bond funds toward the end of the year, with treasuries up 3%. gold funds, just the gdx had horrific outflows in december. then, look at municipal bond

funds in november or december. with detroit and puerto rico. everybody's heading for the exits. bonds, etfs up close to 7% this month. >> the etf, eem, on the close. you made it very clear this is a trade. what's the upside? >> one thing, when we go to the trades, with institutional clients and retail clients, you have to look at barrels. you go in with one barrel. you're not going to pick the bottom. the bottom is probably going to occur over the next ten days. it could be a dollar or two. you go in with three barrels. you remember when the shark was going under the boat, he said not with three barrels, she can't. so, i would go in at three stages. >> that's a trade school law, by the way. get some graphics. there it is. >> good to see you, larry. >> thanks. microsoft expected to announce its new ceo some time this week after a six-month search. will it be a game-changer for the stock? plus, do teens use facebook

or not? mark zuckerberg faces the teen drama, next. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box. ♪ all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. ♪

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tomorrow marks a major milestone for a company that's impacted more than 1 billion people. facebook celebrating the tenth anniversary of its launch. and savanna guthrie sat down with mark zuckerberg for an exclusive interview. check out what he said about teen engagement with the social network. >> i guess the question is, if teens are not on facebook as much as they used to be, does that matter? do you care that facebook is cool anymore? >> we know that facebook and instagram are both really popular, with u.s. teens and teens abroad. we just focus on serving all of these different groups that use facebook. and now, it's almost 1.25 billion people on facebook. and overall engagement is growing. we're helping more people share and connect with the people that they want. and that's, i think, what is really important. we pay attention to every demographic in every country, right? we're going to focus on building things that teens are going to like. and we're going to focus on

building things that other folks are going to like and in different countries around the world. that's what we need to do to serve all of the people who rely on us. >> the full interview tomorrow, 7:00 a.m. eastern time on the "today" show. we should note that savanna went at it. she asked him a few times whether or not it mattered if teens were on facebook or not. and that was the best answer, which wasn't really an answer. >> he turned his hoodie into a cape and did a matador there. turning into a good ceo. the only problem i have with facebook, is unlike twitter they constantly have to reinvent themselves. twitter, they stay on it and want it. facebook, they had to buy instagram. so far, he's proven he's able to do it. and that's why you buy facebook, in my view. >> earlier in the program -- >> why would they just be tuning in now. >> they've been with us the entire time. but i asked would you rather facebook or twitter? and you said facebook.

does it matter, in that decision -- >> it's going to matter. but the princeton study might prove to be correct. whether they said 80% of people. but it's not going to be correct tomorrow. so, in this -- i think facebook is still very viable for the foreseeable future. foreseeable future, at least the rest of this year. >> karen? >> i would stick by facebook. same reason. they really did seem to be able to monetize mobile more quickly, more aggressively than i thought was possible. >> microsoft here. could be hours away from confirming its new ceo. all signs are pointing to satya nadella. will this be a game-changer for the stock? he's clearly an insider. he said he would like to lean on bill gates for help. >> i think he's the best of both worlds. an insider disrupter. but not someone -- if you had a major change in the game plan at microsoft, for a company that's said there was a new game plan just six months ago, that would

be not a great move. i don't think you'll see major divestitures. i don't think you see xbox sold off. and improvement in the enterprise and improvement into cloud are things that nadella's been a part of. and i think you stay with the stock. valuation-wise, this should trade 13-times, 14-times, maybe not more. but value trap territory is where you should be concerned. >> would you buy microsoft? >> nope. and the reason why, we talked about this in the past. when there's going to be all this anticipation leading up to who's going to be the ceo. we know who it is now. it's a sell. it doesn't mean i buy it lower. it doesn't mean it's not a great company. but all of the anticipation built up, it's over now. you sell it. >> you tweet it, we say it. this one is for guy. is delta a buy? >> down $1.50. it's sold off. trading 29. i think the high was 32. timmy mentioned it earlier.

the airline trade is still intact. they were collateral damage for the broader market. but the answer is yes. >> let's get to one for karen. aloha says this person. maybe their from hawaii. karen's thoughts on financials, specifically bank of america. >> i'm long bank of america. financials are a painful place. but the bank of america is intact for me. i'm long. >> we come right back.

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that really is you? if they're not a cfp pro, you just don't know. find a certified financial planner professional who's thoroughly vetted at letsmakeaplan.org. cfp -- work with the highest standard. time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. tim seymour? >> another one of the shopping list, ksu. 83 bucks, line in the sand. that's where you go. >> we saw pmis that were weak except over in europe. so, i think there's an opportunity to sell some of those. you want to sell fxb, your british pound. >> so, talked about it earlier, after waiting, patiently, i thought today was the day. bought some apple. hopefully 500 is a line in the sand, as well. >> guy? >> 55 years ago today -- >> again? >> big bopper, richie valuens,

buddy holly. and bok choy, my friend. hartford financial. i think it's good enough where you see a relief rally in this name. >> i'm for more "fast." meanwhile, "mad money" starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to try to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer! welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i just want fewer days like today. my job is not just to entertain but explain what happened. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. we have got a straight down market. doesn't matter if it's good or bad. if reported a terrific quarter or horrendous one. almost all stocks are coming down. wis