>> look at this though. look at this. so casual about it. >> you will find i'm a highly skilled television personality. >> that looked so nonchalant and he's in the back 12 foot. >> maybe he can give up being an anchor and become a curler. brian is going to go to sochi in a couple weeks. going to be anchoring "street signs" live from there. >> thanks for watching "street signs," everybody. >> "the closing bell" is next. now we know. >> we're learning the terminology. there's a market metaphor in there somehow. >> has the bleeding stopped or is this just a pause in a continuing correction. welcome to "the closing bell." i'm kelly evans with bill griffeth. >> we're back together again, at least for one day. we've got something else going on tomorrow. after the bottom really fell out in asia last night, a lot of nerves were on edge heading into

the trading day here in the united states today and the gains we got, they're not exactly anything to write home about, but it's a welcome reprieve from the run of triple digit losses that we've been suffering through. it's a cycle. so last night asia was still responding to what we did yesterday. now we're beginning a new cycle today. >> at least that's how it looks right now because take a look across markets. the dow jones industrial average adding 85 points, about a half a percent. interesting to see the s&p up about 15 points to 1757, and the nasdaq back above 4,000 after closing below that level yesterday. it's now up 42 points, 4039, adding 1% today. and, you know, bill, you have to say, if you look at what's happening with, folk, the ten-year interest rate, some headwinds we've seen in currency, not a bad way to kick off this session. >> let's talk about it as we go toward the close of trading on this tuesday. is the worst over or are today's green arrows just a speed bump

before we continue the selling? joining us in our closing bell ex chain, christine short, mark martiac, they're both with us here at the new york stock exchange. ryan diedrich from schaefer, michael robinson from money map press and our own rick santelli. christine, what do you make of this volatility? there's been an obvious increase in volatility. is there more to come to the downside do you think? >> you know, despite what the markets have been doing, earning season has been performing quite well. right now s&p capital iq has an earnings growth rate of 7.4%. that's the highest growth rate we've seen in almost two years. on top of that we're seeing beat rates on top and bottom line higher than historical averages. we think the 7.4%, remember, we still have about 200 companies left to report, could go up to about 8% to 9%. as far as earnings are concerned, that's not being reflected in the markets we're seeing right now because earnings season is actually

historically doing quite well. >> how ironic. >> exactly. mark, should people be buying hand over fist here? >> well, i think you should be very careful when it comes to buying. i think if it fits into your asset allocation model and your mix your adviser is working with you on -- i know with my clients i'm working very closely with them. these volatile days, when they appear, this is the time where you want to look at the cash you have on the sidelines and put it to work fairly immediately because it might be a short pullback, but i see the market climbing higher from here. >> and, ryan, you know, it's clear the mentality has changed from 2013 to 2014. last year with every dip, everybody was asking should you buy this dip. now when you get a bounce like you have today, people may be wondering should i sell this bounce if we are fearing going lower? what do you make of the sentiment in the stock market right now? >> that's right, bill.

one thing we are encouraged by, 5.5% dip. everybody said we want a 5% dip, we're going to buy. now we have a good amount of fear and that's positive. i was talking about kelly with the action in the vix. there were all time record calls on the vix. they said it could be smart money. looking back two weeks later, it was absolutely smart money. it's back to 19 today. what's really interesting is the calls we saw are starting to go lower even though there was record volume on the vix yesterday. what was smart money now maybe getting out of volatility. previous peaks in record vix options records, most option voul, those were near term bottoms in the s&p 500. this is one step in the right direction i think. >> that's the question on everyone's minds. rick santelli, you look at sort of the indicators there, talking about the dollar, interest rates. leaving any signals? >> well, actually to come up with the answer to your question i'm going to look at stocks. we're up 80 right now.

we've taken four steps down yesterday and one step up today because you have to multiply today's net gains by four to basically equal negating yesterday's 300-plus down day. i think we need to always remind ourselves that 2014 isn't like 2013. it shouldn't be treated that way, and when it comes to interest rates, i continue to monitor two things. the first thing is the steepness or lack thereof of the yield curve which has been nothing but flattening for the most part for 2014. so that should keep all the pieces the same. and the other issue is the nikkei and the dollar/yen. the nikkei is around 14,000. i know it's not having a good year but let's not lose sight, you would have to take that 14,000 and multiply it by three and end up at the price we were at just shy of three years ago, 40,000. we need to keep that's macro views in perspective. >> michael robinson, what do you make of what's going on these

days in this market at this point. i mean, let's look at the nasdaq, for example. technology. i know you like that, but it has been easily the most volatile of the major three averages on wall street. you still like it despite the tremendous volatility here? >> i do. again, i think stock selection is going to be important this year. we're going to have choppy markets, but it's going to be uptrending. technology as a sector has increased earnings in the fourth quarter by 8.2%. so it's one of the big market leaders, and the untold story to piggyback off what one of your earlier guests said is technology as a sector is doing very, very well. i would be buying select stocks that you have been wanting to get that maybe moved too quickly, and you can protect yourself by taking a position now and you can always put in a low ball order in case we have a little more of a market sell-off ahead of us. >> mark, how important is the jobs report on friday? i ask because we had comments from everylacquer earlier today

indicating he thinks the unemployment rate is going to keep falling, the labor market looks okay, and the fed for that reason will keep tapering. does all of that change if the jobs report on friday is a weak one? >> well, if the report is a weak one, kelly, yes, indeed, you will see some more volatility creep back into the market. jobs in this country is clearly president obama's mandate, and everyone that's concerned with jobs outlook on wall street is constantly focused on this. so my clients often will call before the jobs report or right after the jobs report to understand what the number is. so i tell you that, i share that with you anecdotally because it is so important. and we'll get to know as this week inches closer to friday how important it will move the markets. i think it should be good. my own perspective is we've got a growing jobs outlook, and i think, you know, the numbers will bear that on friday. >> from your lips to the bls

ears at this point. let's look at the earnings reports. yes, earnings have been beating, but the revenue numbers are still coming in pretty light. what do you make of that? >> we still have about 64% of companies that have reported beating on the top line. however, you're right. last week we saw revenue growth had peaked at 3.5%. this week we're down to about 2.7%. so a little lighter than we would like. a lot of that has to do with some of the big energy companies that reported at the end of the week last week missing their revenue estimates, conocophillips comes to mind, chevron, murphy oil. a lot of revenue misses have been in energy and materials. we would like to see that pick up. we really thought the third quarter was an inflection point for revenues, came in at 4% last quarter. the good thing is the outlook is bright for revenues. we're looking at revenues of 4% to 5% in 2014. >> tell that to the market though right now. >> absolutely. we'll see what happens as more of the retailers start to report

this month. thanks, guys. >> thank you. >> you bet. see you later. we have 52 minutes left in the trading session here. we're near the high for the day. we were up 90 at the peak. the nasdaq is up 40 points, back above 4,000 right now. >> that's right. if you think you have heard every theory about why stocks have sold off this year, think again. coming up next, we'll hear from someone who says the sell-off has a lot to do with a tax hike and one that happened more than a year ago. >> i think he's onto something. speaking of sell-offs, how will you know when the market is bottomed out and when you know, let us know, would you? what signs are you looking for that tell you that we're at or near a bottom? tweet us with your favorite indicator right now. we'll reveal your best responses coming up later on "the closing bell." >> yes, @cnbcclosingbell is the way to reach us. a new government report estimating obamacare will cost the economy jobs.

that's all ahead on "the closing bell." customizable charts, powerful screening tools, and guaranteed one-second trades.

and at the center of it all is a surprisingly low price -- just $7.95. in fact, fidelity gives you lower trade commissions than schwab, td ameritrade, and e-trade. i'm monica santiago of fidelity investments, and low fees and commissions are another reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. call or click to open your fidelity account today.

well, take a look at the market action. we have a bit of a respite from the heavy selling we have seen

over the past several trading s sessions. we'll take it. it's a small victory. >> we've still got a ways to go to make up for yesterday. let's start with some of the mig movers. michael kor s surges to a record high after reporting better than expected third quarter profits. it raised its profit forecast for the full year. microsoft named nadella as its new ceo. bill gates takes on the role of technology adviser. fureix pharmaceuticals is up more than 140% after it said its experimental drug to treat irritable bowel treatment succeeded in a pair of large clinical trials. pfizer continued its rise after it was up graded to a buy after positive test results of its new breast cancer drug. jcpenney falling below the $5 per share mark. they gave no real details on

gross profit margins. stern a.g. lowering the price target to $3 a share from its prior $9 a share saying the company might need to raise additional funds by the third quarter. >> despite today's action, stocks are down sharply so far in 2014 after hitting record highs at the end of last year. everything from emerging markets with sluggish economic growth, the beginning of the fed tapering, all of these things have been blamed for the drop but now a new one. last year's tax hike on upper thk earners. >> remember that? joining us to talk about that, that's his reason, red jahncke. also with us is our own robert frank because we don't do any stories about the upper income bracket without involving robert frank. good to see you. red, you maintain that the change in tax -- income tax rates as it pertained to investors had a big impact on this market.

>> yes. aside from all other things being equal, aside from the emerging markets and the manufacturing slowdown, what happened at the end of 2012 is still affecting us now. at the end of 2012 all of a sudden investors were looking at a jack up in the capital gains tax rate from 15% to 23.8%. >> so they sold a lot of their stocks with gains at the end of 2012 to take advantage of those lower rates. >> right. >> and then they started buying again in 2013? >> and they didn't have their gains in tax-friendly long-term form, so on balance there was an inhibition to sell last year because last year to sell a short-term gain you paid 43.4%. >> right. >> and that's what's so interesting about this. if you hold stocks for a period of less than a year, correct, you're talking about paying twice as much in tackxes.

>> that's right. >> what happened when we flipped the calendar? >> all the stocks that people bought in the beginning of 2013 suddenly became eligible at the beginning of this year for a lower tax rate, and so you basically had a support in the market among wealthy investors who didn't want to sell last year and take that higher rate who suddenly the gates are open, the horses go out the barn, and they can sell again. now, the big question is what will happen the rest of this year? >> exactly. you expect more volatility the rest of the year as a result of this, right? >> exactly. because basically what you had in 2013 is an artificial support to the market because there were so few gains that were tax advantaged and so many gains that were tax -- difficult to sell, 43.4. people had an inhibition to sell last year, not so much this year. as we go into the year, that will all go long term. people will be willing to sell as they always are at a long term rate. >> are you seeing this

firsthand? >> with your clients? >> i have spoken not with clients but colleagues who are in the market. there's no definitive evidence -- >> we don't get the tax receipt numbers for another year. >> one thing we do know is we know when you look at how tacks affect the behavior of the wealthy, we know there was a huge capital gains sales, they sold their homes, stocks, anything they could at the end of 2012. we saw the data for the rush to sell in 2012. we know that happened driven by taxes. you chronicle out how taxes and stocks work and it's logical people buying stocks at the beginning of last year that become eligible for the lower tax but the data is usually a year late. >> which is anathema to what i learned about investing long ago is you don't invest with taxes in mind. you buy something because you like it, you hang onto it, and you let the tax chips fall where they may, but you're saying this

tail is wagging the dog right now. >> well, to a degree. and my counter to that is if all of your investment analysis leads you to do something and then if you do it one day or one day later and you're paying 15% the first day and 23.8% the next day, you're going to sell on the first day. >> what about people who are keeping these assets in tax protected retirement accounts so they wouldn't necessarily be paying any tax until they withdrawal that perhaps year from now? >> no tax effect there. this all happens at margin. this is not -- this is, you know, the marginal sales will affect the market. >> right. >> and, remember, if we keep in mind that the top 10% of americans own 80% of the stocks, you know, yes, a lot of americans have 401(k)s, but the vast majority of stocks are held by a fairly small group at the top. these taxes add up for that group when you're talking about that amount of stock.

it really does affect that top group which holds a lot of stock. >> and they don't have a lot of 401(k)s either. >> and we do have some evidence. this happened in the mid 1980s. >> 1986. >> during the reagan era. >> it went up almost the same amount, eight points. >> not to be confused with m.y.r.a. >> exactly. red, thank you. >> appreciate it. >> thanks, robert. >> something to think about. >> we have about 40 minutes left to go before the close on this day where it looks as though the rally will hold. of course, we'll have to watch the action. bill, we're up 70 points at this hour. we are negative briefly this morning. >> yes, we were. the dow still about 3% away from correction territory though, but that also means some stocks have been beaten down to prices that are now attractive to some. coming up, we'll hear from two money managers who have got the thames of those stocks that they believe are dirt cheap right now. all eyes on twitter tomorrow when it reports earnings for first time as a public company. will the results justify the

high flying stock? we'll get you a preview right after this. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 there are trading opportunities tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 just waiting to be found. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 at schwab, we're here to help tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 bring what inspires you tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 out there... in here. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 out there, tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 there are stocks on the move. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 in here, streetsmart edge has tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 chart pattern recognition tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 which shows you which ones are bullish or bearish. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 now, earn 300 commission-free online trades. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 call 1-888-648-6021 tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 or go to schwab.com/trading to learn how. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 our trading specialists can tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 help you set up your platform. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 because when your tools look the way you want tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 and work the way you think, you can trade at your best.

tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 get it all with no trade minimum. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 and only $8.95 a trade. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 open an account and earn 300 commission-free online trades. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 call 1-888-648-6021 to learn more. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 so you can take charge tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 of your trading.

social media stocks are set to take center stage on wall

street this week. a lot of earnings and twitter starts us off tomorrow. it will be their first report as a publicly traded company. julia boorstin has a preview for us. >> mobile will be in focus across social media. and for twitter, which is up over 150% since its ipo, the pressure is on to really show investors its growth potential, perhaps with the likes of an ad network or e-commerce. analysts project their quarterly revenue will double. pandora also out tomorrow is expected to benefit from user growth and to swing to a quarterly gain of 7 cents per share. yelp is expected to turn things around and slash its earnings loss from 6 cents a share a year ago to 2 cents.

then thursday growth across linkedin's three divisions plus a price increase should help drive revenue 44% higher and earnings per share up 9%. we'll have to see if results from all these companies help alleviate concerns there might be a social media stock bubble. guys, back over to you. >> julia, thanks very much. you notice we're down here standing in front of post 8 where twitter traded and where it famously traded 100 million shares on the day of its ipo. >> remember the crowd that was standing around here? glen is still here, the specialist in the stock, but the rest of the traders have gone. fair weather friends. >> 10 million shares today? >> joining us to talk about their view of what to expect from twitter and whether or not it's a long time investment, brian weezer, a senior research analyst, and rich gerber is with gerber kawasaki out in los angeles. brian, you rate this a sell right now. just valuation? >> it's purely valuation.

twitter has stellar management, making great traction. but the reality is to get to this kind of valuation against the rest of our universe, they had have to be generating $10 billion of revenue within the next four years. that is -- would make them one of the world's largest media owners by far. it's not out of the realm of possibility but highly unlikely. >> well, brian, you're talking about this being at least a $5 billion ad revenue company, so it sounds like we're talking about mega, mega growth that people are expecting for this upstart firm. >> they'll still grow pretty rapidly, to be clear. the more salespeople they hire, they're probably doubling that y year-over-year. they will also be continuing to launch new products. the mobile ad network business for in-app adviertising, but at

the end of the day it's hard to see how they can grow as fast as needed to justify the valuation. >> brian has a sell on this. would you sell twitter at these levels, ross? >> i wouldn't sell twitter and nor would i make a recommendation either way to buy or sell twitter. i think on an absolute philosophical basis, twitter is incredible ly expensive. there's no question about it. it will grow dramatically over the years, but i think the real issue when you get down to social media stocks like twitter is will their ads really resonate with their users and will there be a return on the advertising dollars? and i don't think that's been proven with twitter yet nor do they have a good ad platform even developed for customer service or any of the other functions that major ad revenue companies have. they're going to have to invest a lot of money to continue their growth. so i would say more than anything else you should look at your portfolio and determine if you want to -- if the risk/reward is right for you,

but other than that i think there's better plays. >> i'm suddenly having a deja vu here. i'm going back ten years when google came public and people were saying the same thing. >> absolutely. >> it was expensive on the day it came public. they were never going to be able to justify those valuations. where was the revenue going to come from? >> were they really an advertising platform. >> and they have obviously come through. could twitter do the same thing here though, brian? >> they could. but to be clear -- >> if i'm investing for five years -- if i'm investing for five years down the road right now, would i be silly and foolish to do that? >> i think you should wait for them to make a mistake. they'll have a bad quarter at some point along the way and that's when you buy. over the very long run, this company will be around. the question is at what point do you enter? >>en >> and the bottom line is they're going to do a secondary offering at some point. why not wait for the stock to come back down. you're right to compare it to google ten years ago. i was one of those people who

missed it who later got in and did very well with it. but i would argue that facebook is closer to google than twitter, and that's really my point. it's still about do the ads work? and that was what google proved is the ads work on google. we spent a ton of money, my firm, on google and we spent a small amount of money on facebook but we spend nothing on twitter even though we use it every day. so the question is do i need to even spend money on twitter to get the best resource out of it? and i think that's yet to be proven. >> and listen to your mother. >> twitter could become a massive company. it's just a question of the risk adjusted basis against which you want to assess it. >> twit ser a massive -- >> says the guy with the $34 price target on a $66 stock. >> thank you, guys. >> we'll get instant analysis and reaction tomorrow right here on "the closing bell." that's all during the 4:00 hour. don't want to miss it. >> okay. we're heading toward the close.

we have 30 minutes left in the trading session here and we are losing altitude big right now. the dow at the peak of the day was up 90 points. now we're up just 36 points. nasdaq is holding onto a gain still above 4,000. >> we started off this hour at twice the levels we're at currently. if you think our stock market has taken a hit, take a look at japan. the nikkei down more than 13% to start this year. it is deep into correction territory. got people talking about a bear market, and the question is as japan goes, do we go here, bill? >> it's a question being asked a lot these days. also later, get ready for this. former minnesota governor jesse ventura sounding the alarm about america's middle class and "shark tank's" kevin o'leary is on your panel next hour. he might not agree with jesse. do you think? you do not want to miss that slam down i'm sure is what it's going to be coming up. want ever.

an expert ford technician knows your car's health depends on a full, complete checkup. the works. because when it comes to feeling safe behind the wheel, going the distance and saving at the pump you want it all. get our multi-point inspection with a a synthetic blend oil change, tire rotation, brake inspection and more for $29.95 or less. get a complete vehicle checkup. only at your ford dealer. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. everybody knows that parker. well, did you know auctioneers make bad grocery store clerks? that'll be $23.50. now .75, 23.75, hold 'em. hey now do i hear 23.75? 24! hey 24 dollar, 24 and a quarter, quarter, now half, 24 and a half and .75! 25! now a quarter, hey 26 and a quarter, do you wanna pay now, you wanna do it, 25 and a quarter - sold to the man in the khaki jacket! geico. fifteen minutes could save you... well, you know.

we know we're not the center of your life, but we'll do our best to help you connect to what is.

stock market losing altitude. we had a pretty good bounce earlier in the session. the dow was up 90 points at the peak. we've come off those inform a big way here. the nasdaq holding onto a gain of 31 points. still above 4,000 but we're

going to watch this as we head toward the close with 30 minutes left because the market is starting to lose some of those gains we saw earlier in the session. so after posting massive gains in 2013, we turn toward the japanese stock market which has been socked by a huge bout of selling so far in 2014. >> yeah, exactly. the nikkei has dropped about 13%. it's one of the worst performing markets. last night alone it dropped about 4%. what is going on here? let's ask sara eisen. she joins us now with a look at what's happening over there in japan. >> guys, as stunning as it was to see it go up through 2013 it's wild to see the unwind. down 13% from the december peak. after a 57% rally last year, the best in the entire world. i have been working the phones today talking to a lot of traders and a lot of bulls, previous bulls on japan. they're saying there's still reason to be optimistic about this market. of course, they're a little rattled and some are scared because of the newfound

volatility but many are staying with the trade and here is why. qe is in full effect, quantitative easing. part of abenomics and there are hints more could come. perhaps the bank of japan will ramp it up. watch the meeting february 17th and 18th when it meets. that's been key to the strategy of a weaker japanese yen propping up the economy and the markets. the other thing here to consider, the jury is still out on abenomics, the effort to turn the economy around. the number three economy in the world. april is going to be a key test because that is when the consumption tax goes into effect. so it will be interesting to see the fallout on the jan niece economy and what happens with the japanese economy, whether abenomics is working at all. qe is certainly a good juice for the market but it doesn't fix the fundamental problems. we'll be looking for other type of structural reforms like labor market reforms in japan to see if it's really going to be a growth story, but blooirottom l guys, volatility is there.

it's worse there because it was a steeper run up there last time, but there is more policymakers can do both on the monetary policy front, on the fiscal policy front. there is still some room for hope in japan. >> it was up how much last year? >> 57%. their best year since 1972. dramatic rally. >> and it's going to have an impact on those multinational company that is do business over there, right? >> absolutely. they were actually feeling some pain because of the weaker yen because their earnings over in japan actually came back worth less. those companies could be in for a bit of a boost here because the yen has been stronger going in the other way. we're talking about companies like tiffany, coach, affleof a. those are pretty heavily exposed with 15% to 20% revenues coming from japan. this actually could be a positive for them going forward at least if the japanese yen stays strong here. >> all right, sara eisen, thank you so much for the walk through that. can the prime minister shinzo

abe with his abenomics plan, if you will, get japan back into a place of sustainable growth and one that supports global growth prospects? for more on what's happening there and here, joining us now in a cnbc exclusive is john kadunis. you are one of the biggest banks in japan, one of the biggest banks in the world. is abenomics going to work and what does that mean for us as we sit here and look at the missteps this market has had to start off the year. >> the first part of the question is, yes, it's going to work. it's working. it's a slight setback but let's really look at what's going on. we're extremely bullish still on japan. this is a lot more of a global issue than a japanese domestic issue. >> why? >> because if you look at what's happened in the huge run-up in japan in the last year, there's been what we call a risk on trade. the whole globe and the world has done a big carry trade and a

lot of professional hedge funds, what they've done is they shorted the yen and bought assets that had a lot of credit anywhere else in the world. so what happens now is that a lot of people are taking profits, reversing it, and the reason for this is because of the issues that we have with a lot of the emerging market countries. so a lot of people are scared and reversing the trend. >> it's the emerging market scare that seems to be spooking our market as well that's having an impact on japan right now. >> absolutely. if you look -- >> how much more do you think it goes down? obviously nobody knows, but can you -- we've seen some fear in our own market here after a 5.5% move down for the major averages here. what about in japan? you had a much bigger decline over there. are you seeing a lot of fear as a result? >> history tells us anything, let's look at what happened back in may. something similar. there was unrest in the entire

world. it was emerging markets was an issue. what was going to happen, when was the fed going to taper? now we have similar concerns. the fed is tapering but how much and when? we had weak ism numbers yesterday. some of the issues are the same. the yen rose dramatically and the nikkei declined but what happened? it reversed and people who were buyers really did well. the exact point of when it's going to fall, we don't know but we're still bullish by the end of the year it's going to do very well. >> and that's one reason if people are at home wondering why we talk about what's happening with the japanese yen, for example, it's because it kind of tells you whether people are putting the trade back on and whether the things that happened before, the things they bought including the market here, they're going to start buying again. do you think we've reached that juncture here? >> well, if you look at what we see from our stance in our north american clients, institutional clients, they're buying in a rate of two to one japan right now in the last month in the

decline. now, it's been a change in the makeup of what they're buying. they're not buying a lot of the met exporters such as the autos or the electronics but they're buying a lot of domestic importers, the good performers, so the retail, telecom. they're moving from that but they're net buyers in the states. in the whole world they're net sellers, but that has to do with the carry trade. >> they must think that japanese consumers here are going to strengthen and have some more spending power. is that right? >> if you look at corporate japan, it's very strong. >> but aren't you still in a situation in japan -- last year and the year before that here in the united states, fundamentals mattered, but fed policy mattered much more. you still got prime minister abe with his foot to the pedal here with abenomics going as strong as it can right now. isn't that the overriding issue for the market in japan compared to fundamentals over there right now? >> everybody in all the

economies in the world, you know, the central banks are actually dealing with it, and they're doing a great job. the country is fundamentally sound. you know, abenomics is working. the boj is behind it. they're buying at a great rate and they might buy even more we think maybe in june and july. they may tweak things a little bit. >> all right. >> we'll see what happens. john, good to see you again. >> thank you. >> thank you. >> mizuho u.s. josa joining us. >> the dow is up 68 points. and the nasdaq still sitting decisively above 4,000. >> meanwhile, the botched rollout of the obamacare website proving costly to some consumers. now it may be costly to america's jobs market. the congressional budget office announcing today there may be 2 million fewer full-time jobs because of the new law. we'll explain that coming up.

and after the bell, jesse ventura going off the grid. he now lives in an undisclosed location in mexico and from that undisclosed location, he's still worried about america's middle class. sounds odd but it's true and jesse will be with us to explain. that's all coming up. mine was earned in korea in 1953.

afghanistan, in 2009. orbiting the moon in 1971. [ male announcer ] once it's earned, usaa auto insurance is often handed down from generation to generation. because it offers a superior level of protection. and because usaa's commitment to serve current and former military members and their families is without equal. begin your legacy. get an auto insurance quote. usaa. we know what it means to serve.

welcome back. we begin with some breaking news on puerto rico. michelle caruso-cabrera joining us now on the phone with the details. michelle? >> s&p has downgraded puerto rico's general obligation bonds, kelly, to junk status. the immediate implications for this is that the commonwealth which is a part of united states may face an increased billion dollars' worth of collateral calls on some short-term borrowing that they had done. significant because their deficit this year was only supposed to be $600 million and that means their funding gap could more than double. s&p was -- puerto rico was trying very hard to fight this and trying to convince the ratings agencies not to downgrade them to junk. they're going to try to borrow $2 billion within the next month to cover their liquidity needs but certainly this makes things a lot tougher for them, and, remember, roughly 70% of all mutual funds in the united

states contain puerto rico debt because of its triple exemption. if you get interest from a puerto rico bond, you don't pay federal taxes, state taxes, or local taxes on that interest. back to you. >> michelle, thanks very much. an important development in that story. >> their worst nightmare. what they were hoping not to happen. >> and despite today's positive move, the market has been getting pummeled since the start of the new year. >> some of the blue chips are now black and blue chips, right, dom chu? >> they are black and blue chips. bill, kelly, skittishness abounds across the market. the dow is 3% away from being down 10% on the year. that correction mark. the s&p 500 is about halfway to that correction mark as well in year-to-date performance. for those with a stronger stomach who are looking for candidates to maybe buy on this recent weakness, we went trolling around the world of large cap stocks for brand name companies trading at lower levels.

look at 3m. those shares are down 10% so far. they're a dow component. then oil and gas giant exxonmobil. those shares are down 11% on the year. it's a do you component. then there's general electric, ge, the worst performing stock on the dow so far this year. down 12%. you also got to look at big names like amazon.com also down 12% and same goes for apparel and retail giant ralph lauren and finally in the transportation sector, look at kansas city southern down more than 18% this year. not too good at least for the rail company but it's not all bad news. stay tuned because in the next hour we'll show you some of the stocks in those same or similar sectors that are actually bright spots in the market and that's coming up in the 4:00 hour of "the closing bell." back over to you guys. >> every one of those stocks you mentioned had great years last year. so it just simply shows that the rules of physics -- the laws of physics have not been repealed.

>> that's right. >> it went up, and it comes down at some point. thank you, dominick. >> and see you next hour. >> yeah, look forward to those other stocks you're going to highlight there. we're heading higher. the dow up 80 points as we head toward the close with the nasdaq comfortably above 4,000 again with a 30-plus point gain right now. >> we want you to tweet us, how will you know when this market has bottomed out? got some interesting thoughts already. your thoughts on the air later in the show. we'll be right back. let's say you pay your guy around 2 percent to manage your money. that's not much, you think except it's 2 percent every year. go to e*trade and find out how much our advice and guidance costs. spoiler alert. it's low. it's guidance on your terms not ours. e*trade. less for us, more for you.

welcome back. ten minutes left in the trading session here. art cashin just stopped by and said there's a lot of stock to buy. >> $1 billion worth. >> almost $1 billion. some of that is already in this market as the markets has come back. we were up just 39 points a moment ago on the dow. up 63 points right now. joining us with their perspective, michael underhill from capital innovations and kenny pocari. >> it's interesting about that stat that art points out. 3:45, that becomes public. that's when everyone can see what the imbalances are. at 3:45 when the market shoots up 30 points, everybody sees there's stock to buy.

what will happen, it will pear off. >> sellers come in and meet that. >> it will be what it will be. i think today's move is a knee jerk reaction to what happened on monday. i think tough watch for the market to want to test back at 1735, maybe even the 200-day, wouldn't be so bad. >> there are some who this morning, even now, are describing this as a dead cat bounce. how do you know? do you get that same sense that that's what's going on? >> you look at your 50-day moving average and you look at south african equities, they're up like 2%, 3%, 4%. you see a bounce like that? frontier markets, absolutely. >> what does that mean? frontier markets have been an okay place to be. they've done better than emerging markets. what are you saying about the action today in frontier markets? >> i'm saying you're seeing more money go into the market testing as well as you need to take run your channel charts. you're seeing risk seeking assets in places like frontier

markets saying the water is fine. let's take a position in frontier markets as well as some emerging market pickup as well. >> do you see a lot of fear in this market right now? >> i don't. that was the other thing i wanted to say. >> even when the vix went to 21. >> on monday people started using words like capitulation. capitulation is like a black swan. that's when everybody is opening the window and throwing everything out. that's not the way it was. there was certainly some pressure but it wasn't panicky or fearful. a lot of it because we've been discussing it for so long, people are expecting the market to want to test and want po m-- to move lower. >> there was never a sense of panic or anything, but is that the problem? is the problem that we have to get to that point of panic or capitulation and we're clearly not there? >> i think when you take a look at it, have we had a severe correction? absolutely not. we've seen 2%, 3%, 4% backups in certain sectors.

so people will go in and test but i think we really -- quite frankly, i think we have a little further to fall and there's going to be a lot of opportunity here. >> exactly. i think we have further to fall but i don't think it's going to get capitulation-like. i don't think it's going to get that fear that people are talking about. >> they shouldn't be waiting for that. >> i don't think so. >> very good. thank you, both. frontier markets. i have a picture of them circling the wagons on the frontier markets. i don't know why. >> coming up next, we'll be right back with the closing countdown. seven minutes to go, the dow is up 80. after the bell, two top stock pickers give you their list of names they think is attractive that you can't pass up. >> is today's come back the end of the sell-off? your best tweets and thoughts on the subject. keep them coming. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. so you can get out of your element. so you can explore a new frontier

and a different discipline. get two times the points on travel and dining at restaurants from chase sapphire preferred. so you can be inspired by great food once again. chase sapphire preferred. so you can.

[ bell ringing, applause ] five tech stocks with more than a 10%... change in after-market trading. ♪

all the tech stocks with a market cap... of at least 50 billion... are up on the day. 12 low-volume stocks... breaking into 52-week highs. six upcoming earnings plays... that recently gapped up. [ male announcer ] now the world is your trading floor. get real-time market scanning wherever you are with the mobile trader app. from td ameritrade. welcome back. inside the four-minute mark before the closing bell. yes, we have had a bounce but let's put it in perspective. here is yesterday's 30 poi0 poi decline and here is what today's comeback looks like. we're up 80 points, kind of anemic. what about the ten-year yield? we got down to 2.58% yesterday. here is the slide yesterday. everybody was buying bonds as they were selling stocks.

it's been a comeback. we're at 2.62%. not much of a bounce there either. volatility, the vix yesterday, up sharply. we were up to 21 and change. we have come back today. we're down 13% to 1857 on the volatility index. one thing to keep an eye on right now, michelle caruso-cabrera reporting that downgrade of puerto rican debt into junk status, that has take an toll on at least one of the funds that invests in those bonds. the i-shares s&p national municipal bond fund now down. you see when the word got out, this is what the index did. it's come back though, bob pisani, at this point. >> the overall market dropped a little bit on that. i don't think it was terribly unexpected. the argument on the municipal bond fund -- >> this is -- >> the argument is the municipal health overall of the united states is improving, tax reetz are getting betterov overall.

puerto rico is going to be a blip. >> and it's that kind of a mindset we're seeing in this market right now. they're more inclined to see the glass half empty than they are half full. we might have taken that in stride last year because we had the bernanke put. >> you could think of 2013 as kind of pox romano from a trading standpoint. we saw a change of behavior not only from our clients but in various relationships on our street. on january 2nd, everybody was getting back to fundamentals. when you start evaluating the fed on that. the picture may not look so rosy and they had to recalibrate their thinking. as i have told everybody, as it relates to the fed, it was bumpy going into qe. it's going to be bumpy coming out. >> romano, wow. >> and i think that you can take it all the way back to march of 2009. could you argue that that gain that we had seen from that low to the peak of the end of 2013

marks the end of a cycle in this market? >> i think history will tell us that for sure. we know it, we feel it now. we felt it in 2013. bob and i were just talking about it. the s&p is up 30%, nobody was really talking about it because we knew it was going to be up 30%. >> you could take the pacrow ma- romano back to marcus arilous. the market is waiting for another card and that's going to be the nonfarm payrolls report. the ism services tomorrow is important because if it's okay, it's less weather related. i think that will make the market feel better. >> the manufacturing report was not a good report yesterday. >> back to fundamental details, fundamental data points. that's what the markets are doing right now. this market is very overdone. we called it overshot on january 24th. we're just seeing the aftermath now. >> thank you, both. see you later.

we're heading out to the close. what to make of this comeback today. does it continue tomorrow or does the selling resume? we'll talk about that coming up now on the second hour of the closing bell with kelly evans and company. i'll see you tomorrow, kelly. thank you, bill. welcome to "the closing bell." i'm kelly evans. green arrows returning to wall street after yesterday's massive sell-off. take a look at how we're finishing the day. 15. 15,444 is the level. the s&p 500 1755. it's up three-quarters of 1%. the better question, what does it all mean. let's get to it with today's panel. joining me are sharon epperson and kayla tausche, kevin o'leary. also with us, "fast money"

contributor brian kelly. it is great to see all of you. mr. kelly, your thoughts on this market? >> yeah, boring. it's not over yet. still going lower. those are my general thoughts. >> wait a minute, it can't be that boring if we're only pausing here on what's actually been a pretty sharp downward move. >> yeah, but listen, we're up a half a percentage point, 0.8% on the nasdaq. that's nothing compared to what happened yesterday, and not only that, i still continue to hear people talking about let's get that shopping list out, this is a buying opportunity. >> yes. >> when people start -- listen, when people start to ask how low can it go? that's your boouying opportunit at that point. >> when people see it more as guy adami says, a selling opportunity -- >> exactly. >> that's when you need to be paying attention. >> then you buy. >> then you buy. one thing people are buying -- let's talk about some ports in the storm. gold, natural gas.

>> yeah. >> it's a mirror image of 2013. >> some interesting commodity plays here in light of what we're seeing with the equities market. gold is definitely one of them, but after all, look at what happened to gold in 2013. so folks may be just looking to want to have some of that in their portfolio and now is a good time to get in there many of the traders are saying. natural gas a different story because it was already booming at the end of last year and will continue to do so as we have storm after storm, but i think in terms of the broader market, in terms of the equities, what a lot of folks are looking at is what is going to be the next shoe to drop potentially and that's going to be the nonfarm payrolls number. that's going to have a lot of attention on friday and not just for the equities market but the reaction to whatever happens there will definitely be felt in the world market, too. >> natural gas is actually the best performing commodity last year. the impact on heating bills will be something to watch. kayla, what are you hear being this market? do you feel like this is the time when they're getting more

interest? do we look at the financials and take some heart from the little bit of bounce we saw there today? >> i think people are just trying to collect data points. we have the negative manufacturing data yesterday. i think the more important thing about friday's jobs report is maybe not what we saw in terms of employment growth in january but whether we get a december revision. everyone was so quick to say that 74,000 job number, that's a blip on the radar, that can't be right. if that actually is the correct number and if that does not get revised upward, then that's really going to be alarming to the market and i think people are going to view this more as a trend rather than a disparate set of data points. >> our adrenaline junkie b.k. will be happy because the markets will go into panic again. >> exactly. >> i think we all needed a boring day today. >> kevin, you're an adrenaline junkie to some extent. what's your read? >> if we're going to get north of $200 of earnings on the s&p 500 this year, i have got to see consistent, good growth, and i want these companies to succeed. i've liked earnings so far but the new worry i have got, when i start to see meltdown in

emerging markets where 47% to 50% of s&p sales come from, that's why you have concern, why you have a correction. will there be compression in the price earnings ratios as a result of no growth when the growth here in the u.s. has been anemic? it's the first time i have worried about it in two years. >> let me ask you this, why are you worried about it now when to some extent emerging markets were weaker this time last year. even though you cite a high number, there are a lot of people saying most domestic companies don't really have that much exposure. >> the s&p 500 has figured it out. while they were suffering under oppressive administration policies -- >> wait, we're up 170%. >> you know how they did it? they did it overseas. they're smart, they're intbette faster than the government is. we're looking for the domestic market to pick up the slack and it's not there because we're in the repressed regime of

anti-business in america which is un-american. >> they did it by financial engineering. unfortunately, companies really missed the boat. instead of taking money and investing it, what did they do? they went out, took vadvantage f the low interest rate environment and took the money and returned it to shareholders. how we have debt minus cash, $1.5 trillion. i think companies really missed the boat. people are starting to pay attention. the earnings numbers are coming in. they're not showing that amazing growth catalyst and i think it's going to be very clear it's going to be another average sluggish growth year. there isn't a catalyst to support a premium valuation. >> i'm wondering what holds the market back is going to be emerging markets, is it going to be jobs data or earnings, which are you looking at as being the drive force? >> answer is yes. >> all of it. >> i think we have a little bit of a house that was built and put together with glue from the dollar store and i'm not saying the whole thing is going to

collapse but there may be some cracks in the foundation. i think people are starting to realize that. it's going to be happening domestically, happening over seas. that's creating a lot of worries and the volatility in the market. >> brian, it's interesting because when we were talking about the sell-off in search of a catalyst, we never really got the catalyst to borrow from brian reynolds, he calls this the pooh-pooh platter of corrections because there's just so much in it and so much going on, and i wonder what that means. from your point of view, is it healthier to have those instances where everyone goes, oh, it's because of the greek situation or whatever or a situation like this where it's less clear? >> i do think there's something different about this time and kevin is right to be worried now. what's different in the emerging markets are the currency moves. last spring we didn't see currency moves like this when the emerging markets sold off. and that's a telltale sign of capital flight. all these -- not all of them, most of these countries in stress right now need that

capital inflow. when it starts to turn around, it's very hard to get it back. so that is something that's different. i think that's the reason we've had this sell-off. i'm going to say that's the catalyst for the sell-off and until the emerging market stabilizes it will be tough to have a sustainable rally in the s&p. >> one of the other things that's different this time around is because interest rates were so low for so long, so many investors that are now in the emerging markets in some of the etfs but also in the currencies are investors and money managers where this is not their core economy sen at th-- competency. that's the rapid fire sale activity that we're seeing right now. the first people to pull the trigger to get out of those market are people who actually don't know what they're doing there in the first place whereas other people who are more familiar with the markets are saying let's look at the data, see what the risk is, and we know enough about this to either sell or hold at this point. but some of the funds that are flying out of there are people

that shouldn't have been in there in 9 first place. >> brian, i want to get your thoughts about japan. i think everybody is talking about emerging markets, but japan is the third largest economy in the world and certainly i think everybody was anticipating with all the printing going on over there this would be a home run for the year and we're starting to see some cracks. i have been concerned about it because i personally think with the aging population and the shrinking population and the 2.5 times debt to gdp that they're going to have a lot of problems in the long run here. do you think the fact that japan is showing weakness also is impacting the market right now? >> yeah, no doubt. listen, i'm short the nikkei 225 futures so my opinion is somewhat bearish on japan, but what i would say about japan is there's some negative catalysts coming up. we have an election in tokyo this weekend coming up, potentially could be a referendum against starting the nuclear plants which would increase their oil import costs. not only that, in april they'll raise the sales tax.

we're not sure if the economy is strong enough for that. so everybody was piled into this trade. some of the fundamentals are cracking. you know, we've had quite a sell-off. i think it's off 14% from the year, so i'm not sure i'd be full bolt short into this at this point in time -- >> i think it's important for what happens here, do you think this move is pretty much run its course? are you looking for the nikkei to drop below 14,000 and kind of stay there? >> i think it could drop below 14,000. we'll see what happens this weekend, but at some point i'm more inclined to cover my short than i am to add to it. >> and we're getting close to that point. kevin, i'm curious again as a sense of whether this correction has created this buy the dip opportunity that everyone says they missed last year, are you looking at it that way? >> i look at it a different way, and i think everybody that buys the s&p should start looking this way in perpetuity. you can't run and hide in the s&p and think you're escaping emerging markets. the s&p is selling 50% of its goods and services to the emerging markets. so if japan catches cold, we get

sick here, too. this is very interlinked. what matters most for us here now in america is let's get competitive. let's make our economy start to fire on its own pistons which its not because, and i keep saying this, it's dripping in regulations that stop us from moving like we used to. it's a huge problem. and now it's coming home to roost. >> can i get an amen up in here on that one? >> we're going to get to this point in a little bit. be sure to stick around and catch brian kelly on "fast money" at 5:00 p.m. let's send it out to dominic chu for a quick market flash. >> let's check out buffalo wild wings. the company is posting better than expected fourth quarter profits of $1.10 a share. sales though coming in a little light. the company reaffirmed its earnings growth forecast for 2014. it also did say that company owned same-store sales were up 5.2% in the quarter. 3.1% for those franchise locations. you see the stock is currently up 2% to 3% in the afterhours. back over to you. >> thanks very much.

even with today's gains, the dow is still about 1,000 points below its all-time high. believe it or not, a number of stocks have been bucking that recent down trend and dom will rejoin us with a list of what you need to know for those names. plus, two wall street stock pros giving you their picks. you'll want to stay tuned for that. also ahead, part-time nation. it's said 2 million full-time workers will disappear because of obamacare. how much will this hurt the economy and your investments? we'll talk that out with steve liesman and our panel stays with me. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. [ male anno] the new new york is open. open to innovation. open to ambition. open to bold ideas. that's why new york has a new plan -- dozens of tax free zones all across the state. move here, expand here, or start a new business here and pay no taxes for ten years... we're new york. if there's something that creates more jobs, and grows more businesses... we're open to it. start a tax-free business at startup-ny.com.

okay. let's i think i forgot to it's race dapay a bill. what's up ted? we're open to it. yep, paid that one. what about your mortgage? yep, paid that too. alright we're good then. man i feel like i'm forgetting something. eh, it's probably nothing. you worry too much ted. alright, hammer down! bank from almost anywhere with the citi mobile app. citi, with you every step of the way.

welcome back. well, diamonds in the rough, ports in a storm, a number of stocks have outperformed despite the market's recent meltdown. dominic chu is back with us with the names you need to know. >> so poetic, kelly. last hour we gave you some big name stocks that are in correction land including some big names in retail and transportation. performance of amazon, ralph lauren, kansas city southern. here are the bright spots we're going to pair those names off with. when it comes to the internet and dotcom side of things, amazon not doing that great but

look at internet giant facebook. it's not nearly as established but making upside waves in the market up 15% so far this year. ralph lauren, we told you it was down but a different kind of apparel company is heating things up, that's under armour. it's soaring up almost 20% just since the start of 2014. and on the transportation side, kansas city southern was struggling, down 18%, but turn your heads to the skies and you've got united continental air airlines which is still soaring building on last year's gains. around 130 companies in the s&p 500 are either flat or up for the year. so it all really depends what you want to put on your shopping list, if you will, if anything at all. still, there are bright spots in the marketplace and in some big names like those, kelly. back over to you. >> dom, thanks very much. for more stocks that look attractive at these levels, let's bring in two portfolio planningers, charlie and harry.

it is great to see you both, and, harry, dom just mentioned united as one of the outperformers and you still like american. are they the only airline or is the sector generally still poised to benefit do you think? >> well, i think the sector has some ways to go, and it's poised to benefit from the favorable fundamentals. >> talk us through you like american. you also like a name like citigroup and some of the financials. is that right? >> that is correct. as it relates to american, there's obviously been a lot of consolidation in the industry, so the capacity addition was quite modest. there are elements of pricing power in the different business models that they have in place. fuel remains supportive, and in general what i would say is that there's a lot of operational leverage which will lead to significant improvement in profitability and it's not unique to american airlines. it's common in the u.s. industry

and to some extent common in the european industry as well. >> and we'll get to the financials in a second. charlie, what about you? you look at the sell-off here and are you using this opportunity to pick up some names on the cheap? >> we tend not to worry too much about short-term moves. this is a 5% move, it's not a big deal but we have looked at sector that is have been left behind and stocks that have been left behind and there were some high quality energy names in particular. nov is a leader in drilling equipment, floating rigs, and it's got a book to build ratio of 1.4 trading at less than 12 times earnings. we're very excited about nov. >> all right. i see a couple other names up there, including microsoft. that's an interesting one. do you like the naming of nadella as ceo here? >> yeah. the thing about microsoft, my kids yell at me all the time when i say i own the stock because they don't like the consumer products, but it's an enterprise company. if i told you over the last ten

years that microsoft's earnings have almost quadrupled from 75 cents a share to almost 3 bucks, most people wouldn't believe that, but they have. sales have more than doubles over the last ten years. so it's not that the company is having problems. it's that the stock was overpriced ten years ago. it's not overpriced now. it's actually a very attractive stock. >> all right. harry, is that true for a name like citigroup? >> it is true, and just to get back to the issue of the market itself, i think we're having a modest healthy correction against the backdrop of significant price appreciation and some multiple expansion over the last couple years. so i think there will be opportunities in a variety of securities and, you know, i just picked out american previous and citi is another stock. they have some emerging market exposure, and emerging markets have had a difficult time of it, but it's not simply an emerging market stock and it's trading on emerging market stock type multiples. the capital position is much more robust than it's been for

many, many years, and they have a diversified business stream. and i think it's wrong for one to assume that all emerging markets are exactly the same and i think that diversification works to citi's benefit. >> charlie, you mentioned value tech. we talked about microsoft. i think you have oracle on here as well. i want to ask you about apple and twitter. do you see reason to get involved with either one here? >> very different. apple used to be a high-flying growth stock, and now it's close to a value stock. let's just say we'd be a lot closer to buying apple than we would twitter here. social media, my kids go in and out of these platforms, and they easily could move out of twitter. >> i think we froze there for a second. harry, what about you? what about apple? what about twitter and social media more generally? >> well, i think apple would be a difficult one -- it's hard to calibrate what the earnings power of apple happens to be, and to the extent that they have

been over earning in the past, there could be a period where those earnings could suffer in the absence of a new product, and in that context optically it looks quite cheap, but it's quite difficult to get a good handle on what the earnings power of apple might be on a forward looking basis. and twitter, that's a really difficult one. i would agree with charles, social media can come and go relatively quickly. i do actually use twitter myself. i find it a great platform, but hard to understand how the earnings capacity can become very evident to investments. >> well, and, harry, let us know when you stop using it because that will probably be a tell as well. guys, thanks very much for coming and sharing some thoughts this afternoon. >> thank you very much. >> a stark warning from the congress budget office on a significant albeit unintended consequence of obamacare. the report saying the equivalent of 2 million full-time jobs will be lost as a result of the affordable care act.

steve leastmiesman and our pane weigh in next on the impact to the economy and our money. keep it right here. op in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances.

welcome back. some surprising numbers coming out of the congressional budget office today. the same cbo that spit out numbers helping obamacare get passed in the president's first term now says that the law will result in the loss of an equivalent of 2 million full-time workers in two years from now. steve liesman joins us to say it might not be as bad as it

sounds. steve? >> well, first of all, kelly, i think it's bad. it's a problem when you have -- especially in this current environment anything that would reduce jobs. first of all, we're talking about full-time equivalent jobs which means basically what the cbo is talking about is the supply of labor would be reduced because of the tax structure around the aca. not necessarily that the jobs offered by employers would be reduced. when you put it in context of 150 million working americans it's about 1.3%. so it's not huge, but it is problematic. the question becomes does the benefit of what's offered here and perhaps that benefit when it comes in terms of maybe more productive, maybe healthier workers, does that offset by what we're giving up which is these 2 million equivalent full-time estimated jobs. >> carol is shaking her head. >> this should surprise absolutely nobody, and this is why we need more business people in politics who are not just following party politics lines, who actually understand the merits and the unintended

consequences of what start out as good ideas. this is not surprising to me, and not only are we losing jobs, but the reality is a lot of people have lost their health care. a lot of people are paying more for their health care, and we have not fixed the underlying problem which is the cost of health care. so overall i expect this -- i personally think that this is a disaster. i think it needs to be reworked and it we don't, we're going to continue to see reports like this over and over again. >> let's think silver lining. think about this. this is so damaging, so bad for the administration, it is fodder for the republicans going into the midterm elections. i smell defeat for the democrats in the senate which expands the pe of the s&p 500 for me, the v investor. i get back what i have lost through this insanity. i'm liking that scenario. >> are we really talking about jobs lost, steve, or are we talking about this idea you have to stick with your employer because of these great health care benefits and health insurance has now gone away. and so people may be working

less, maybe not full-time employees because they're not taking feeling they have to take advantage. isn't that part of it as well as the fact that perhaps we are seeing some people that are working part-time or not being part of this program deciding not to opt into this program. >> sharon, it is part of that, but it's really into the complicated economics of taxes and incentives which are well debated in the economics profession and the idea that you offer a subsidy to somebody that if they reach a certain income, that they won't get this subsidy, in this case for health care, and so may reduce the amount of hours they supply to the economy. and then you have a person who is on the higher end and they have to pay a tax for this. they may reduce the number of hours they supply in their work because of the taxation. it's the negative impacts of taxation bii wouwhich is true i other government program we have and every other tax we have. when we offer welfare to people, help for children, when we offer all of these things, you have that same trade-off that's out

there, and it's a cultural and an economic decision that's made. i don't know that i would call it a disaster. it's a cost to a benefit is what it is. >> right, but, steve, what's interesting that's in the cbo's report is even though the deficit this year is much better than expected, much better than expected, when they start going from 2014 to 2023, they added $1 trillion cumulatively and it sounded like part of the reason for that was because the potential growth of the economy isn't what they expected partly because of this reason that they talk about when it comes to the labor force. >> sure. >> can anybody spin this positively? somebody throw me the spin -- >> i'll tell you exactly -- not the spin but i'll tell you most economists who had looked through the report today said, you know what? frankly, this is kind of to steve's early point, it's the demand side of the labor force that's the problem, not the supply side, and while this doesn't help, it's not that big of a deal. we have to focus on the policies -- >> kevin, the answer is no. nobody can spin this positively. this is a cost that's out there,

and these numbers are revised up from the cbo and they have used different research and they found the effect is greater than they first estimated. >> did somebody break a promise? i was promised something else. >> kevin, you were promised nothing. you are too rich to be promised anything. >> a politician may have lied to me? please tell me it's not so, please. >> the report says it will effect low age workers the most. does it put any fuel under the minimum wage debate? >> it may, but it's the whole argument of cost versus benefit. i wish i could come and tell you that economists think "x" about this. they do not. you can find economists on both sides of the aisle by the way that have different beliefs. there are guys at the aie say we should be helping more with redistribution and guys on the left who argue the opposite.

the science is not clear on it, but it's clear that if you provide a benefit here, in this case health care to people, there are -- >> what they're using -- >> go ahead. sorry, kelly. >> it seems to be more -- correct me if i'm wrong, was there something in the report that said, oh, because this research or this -- >> right, right. >> because the rollout was an unmitigated disaster. >> they changed the figures in a dramatic way but without really sort of pointing to the science. >> i tried to find the footnote on that, kelly. >> it doesn't exist. >> i was re-reading it to try to figure out that whole change from 2010 and i will be calling the cbo to ask them about that because that's, kelly, as reporter, you know what we do here. >> what about the silver lining of the savings i read about in the report of $8 billion with these risk corridors, that they're working differently than was originally set out and the government may be getting money from insurers because of the way this is working.

is that part of it? >> that's out there but that's separate from the issue of jobs, and jobs, it's its own animal. we have a jobs problem in this country, a jobs problem that needs to be dramatically addressed in this country through i don't know which particular programs or which particular ways to do so exactly, but the idea that -- i think kevin has it right. it's an unmitigated disaster for the administration in the sense of the politics of this and also the economics of this. >> steve, thanks very much. while you're making calls, will you ask the fed to release the transcripts already from 2008? >> it's going to happen anyday now. there's going to be some very interesting transcripts coming out. kelly, are you going to help me read them? because it's a lot to read. >> dramatic reading live on air. >> no, i would love that. thank you very much, steve. >> thanks. >> is today's rebound the start of a comeback or just a pause in the selling? black rock's chief investment strategist weighing in next. you may want to listen up.

we'll be right back. nutes couldu fifteen percent or more on car insurance. yeah. strategist weighing in next. you may want to listen up. we'll be right back. ? trick number one. look-est over there. ha ha. made-est thou look. so end-eth the trick. hey.... yes.... geico. fifteen minutes could save you... well, you know. they don't know it yet, but they're gonna fall in love, get married, have a couple of kids, [ children laughing ] move to the country, and live a long, happy life together where they almost never fight about money. [ dog barks ] because right after they get married, they'll find some financial folks who will talk to them about preparing early for retirement and be able to focus on other things, like each other, which isn't rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade.

open to innovation. open to ambition. open to bold ideas. that's why new york has a new plan -- dozens of tax free zones all across the state. move here, expand here, or start a new business here and pay no taxes for ten years... we're new york. if there's something that creates more jobs, and grows more businesses... we're open to it. start a tax-free business at startup-ny.com.

welcome back. so some gains today, but the correction watch is still under way. yesterday's precipitous drop pushing the dow closer to official correction territory

typically thought of as a decline of 10%. now sheila dharmarajan has been crunching the numbers. >> when you look at the indices, yes, we have a little ways to go before you're talking about correction territory. you start to peel back the layers and certain sectors are definitely inchesiing closer. three sectors are down 7%. we're talking consumer discretionary, consumer staples, also energy down 7%. so a little bit closer to that correction territory. you peel back one more layer at the subsectors and we're already in correction territory. take a look at retail, for example. we all know it was hit very hard after a very lackluster holiday season. the s&p especially retailing index down 11% this year. also a seconder you may not have thought of, insurance. just a stone's throw away from correction territory down about 9.5% this year. led by names like chub and progressive. finally, you got to talk about the small caps, the little guys.

everyone likes to talk about the russell 2000, whether it's a leading indicator of what's happening in the economy. if you take a look at the performance of the russell 2000 we're down only 5%, but when you take a look at what the russell has done from the intraday high set in the last week of december, down about 9%, so, again, inching closer to that correction territory. that is something that everyone is watching, kelly. >> yeah, and watching closely, sheila. thanks very much. so is that where we're headed, towards an official correction? let's ask ross from blackrock and our own jeff cox. they both join me. russ, first to you, you see so much flow in and out of your etf products. what do you glean from that? >> well, we see that investors have gotten very nervous the last month, particularly in parts of the market such as emerging markets where, you know, there's a lot of concern about the stability of the space. look, i think the good news for investors is i don't believe anything is fundamentally changed since the market was at

a peak in late december. the problem is everyone knows it was a big year last year, particularly for u.s. equities. most of those gains were predicated on the market getting more expensive. there's a lot to digest. to some extent this correction shouldn't come as that big of a surprise. >> jeff, does that mean we shouldn't blame central banks for what's going on? >> we should absolutely blame central banks for what's going on here. there's no doubt about it. look, the road to this market mayhem was paved with very good intentions but we're seeing what happens now when you take these extraordinary measures and at some point you have to take them back. this has been a very easy trade over the last four years. you borrow low cost american dollars and you use them to invest in high yielding foreign currencies, and it's been an easy thing to do, and as we go through now this change in central bank policy, the markets are a discounting mechanism, they're looking ahead, people

are getting nervous as russ said, and they're reacting. this question of a correction, is it a good one? i think this 10% really feel like a correction janymore than 9%? the market is confused. i think you're going to see a lot of zigzagging in the market for quite a while. >> there have been some big currency swings at the heart of this. you launched a suite of hedging products so people can invest in some of these markets without worrying about that exposure, is that right? >> well, obviously the currency market has been very active lately, particularly in emerging markets. a lot of people focused on the em side of this. clearly the concerns about emerging markets are impacting developed markets. yesterday was very instructive. the market was up before the open yesterday. futures were higher. the correction yesterday was really driven by a very disappointing u.s. number. we saw the biggest collapse in the ism new orders as part of the broader ism release than

we've seen since october of 2001. so i don't think this is just about em. there's also some recalibration of expectations by investors who came into the year with some very optimistic views about the u.s. economy. some of those are getting peare back a bit. >> how long are people on the u.s. generally speaking? >> well, i think people were very long the u.s. you had a huge run, people have been abandoning emerging markets. they have been trading a bit in europe but i think the u.s. market was clearly the favorite last year. it got to be a bit of a crowded trade, and, again, a lot of those gains were simply because the market got more expensive, not because u.s. companies hit the ball out of the park. >> best house in a bad neighborhood and it looks like the neighborhood is starting to change a little bit. >> well said. >> people are looking for a place to move. >> or the house looks different. a lot depends on what happens with the jobs report friday. >> it's a big number, and one of the things i will be looking for

also is not just this number, but what's going to happen to that december number, how big of a revision is that going to be? if it doesn't get revised a lot, it will tell you that the weakness here is maybe a little deeper than we thought. >> last word, russ? >> one comment on the jobs report. you know, it's funny because most people blamed december's weak print on the weather. i'm out here in california. i'm a little removed from it. snars i can tell the weather didn't get any better in january. so we may have another print which is a bit distorted by this unseasonably cold weather. >> i have the bad back to prove that weather. >> exactly. we'll keep a close eye on the household survey. thanks to you both, jeff and ro russ. >> check out shares of myriad jen knittics. this is up big. beat earnings, boosted earnings and bought a company. the company boosted its tax

return outlook. also said it bought crescendo biosciences for $270 million which will be reduced by $25 million for the repayment of a loan actually made to that company. you can see those shares of myriad genetics up 14%, 15% in after market trading. kelly, back over to you. >> big move, dom. thanks. is the volatile stock market still what's clicking on our website? we've been asking you about your favorite gauges. keep the tweets coming. how can you tell when markets have hit a bottom? put your best thoughts on air at the end of the program. don't go anywhere. mine was earned in korea in 1953.

afghanistan, in 2009. orbiting the moon in 1971. [ male announcer ] once it's earned, usaa auto insurance is often handed down from generation to generation. because it offers a superior level of protection. and because usaa's commitment to serve current and former military members and their families is without equal. begin your legacy. get an auto insurance quote. usaa. we know what it means to serve. in a we believe outshining the competition tomorrow quires challenging your business inside and out today. at cognizant, we help forward-looking companies run better and run different - to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you. so if you're ready to see opportunities and see them through, we say: let's get to work. because the future belongs to those who challenge the present.

is this the bottom trying to gauge it? to way better than what people are clicking on the website. allen wastler is joining us with the top stories. >> i have like a three wise man motif going on on the website because people are trying to figure out what's going on with the market. kicking it off, we've got mr. bear himself, dr. doom, mark faber. we have the write up of his interview. he says stocks are overdue for a 20% to 30% correction. >> from faber, i'm shocked. i'm shocked. >> he said personally he would prefer 40%. go figure, dude. actually, we got two bites at

the apple on faber because he did an interview overnight with our european unit, too, and he is just as depressing there. he's getting 230 readers a minute. they just love him. we have art cashin. today he was saying today's bounce was really half hearted and he's still looking to the employment number. that's an exclusive interview we have up right now. yesterday he got 85,000 readers in total. i'm hoping he does the same for me again today. >> he is the oracle of the floor down here. we love cashin. >> now, to balance out all the doom and gloom from mark faber, we also got jpmorgan chase's tommy lee, and he came up and he's always a big bull, and he said, hey, this drop lately, it looks to him like a buying opportunity. he's saying could still go down a little bit. he's saying he sees a lot of stocks with big discounts and he thinks smart investors, this is where they go in. so i got that three wise men motif going. you can see three wise guys or something worse, depends on your point of view, but that's what's

cooking on the website. >> it is interesting that reflects people are looking at both the stories about how bad this could get and about how it could be an opportunity. thank you and be safe out there with the weather. >> always. >> it's going to be another tough one. we have some news as well on a potential settlement with morgan stanley. >> we just are seeing these headlines cross right now. we've seen a lot of these banks settle with the federal housing finance agency, the regulator for fannie and freddie and this is a settlement that's $1.25 billion. it's reached in principle. this is a positive move for morgan stanley because it's one of the latest banks to do this. they've been in court over this potential issue for several years, and the reason why the shares are down right now a quarter of a percent is because it is going to take away five cents per share from 2013 earnings. they're going to have to put a little more into their reserves to pay for this even though they had been paying for a lot of that but they sold this unit so there aren't expected to be any more issues. >> as we lap year six of the

crisis. kayla, thank you very much. we'll keep an eye on that one. the middle class may be disappearing before our very eyes. that's what former minnesota governor jesse ventura is seeing. he blames the wealthy and specifically greed. humans -- even when we cross our "t's" and dot our "i's," we still run into problems. that's why liberty mutual insurance offers accident forgiveness with our auto policies. if you qualify, your rates won't go up due to your first accident. because making mistakes is only human, and so are we. we also offer new car replacement, so if you total your new car, we give you the money for a new one. call liberty mutual insurance at... and ask us all about our auto features, like guaranteed repairs, where if you get into an accident and use one of our certified repair shops, your repairs are guaranteed for life. so call... to talk with an insurance expert

about everything that comes standard with our base auto policy. and if you switch, you could save up to $423. liberty mutual insurance. responsibility. what's your policy?

we still run into problems. that's why liberty mutual insurance offers accident forgiveness if you qualify, and new car replacement, standard with our auto policies. so call liberty mutual at... today. and if you switch, you could save up to $423. liberty mutual insurance. responsibility. what's your policy?

welcome back. my next guest once known for his wrestle moves is now renowned for his bold moves. he's basing his operations at an undisclosed location in mexico. he's focusing on america's most pressing problems. jesse ventura joins us now. for a second i thought you were wearing google glass but i want to get your reaction, first of all, to a "new york times" article this week talking about how the middle class is eroding while the rich are doing well. we're seeing businesses and companies that reflect that, names like al liol live garden red lobster. what's your take on this? >> to me there's been an assault on the middle class and it started way back with ronald reagan when they started destroying unions and collective bargaining. unions created the middle class. can unions get out of control,

too? certainly they can, anything can, but you're looking at today the total destruction of the middle class. pretty soon we will be just like mexico where you just basically have rich and basically have rich and poor. and there won't be a middle class. and that's what i see down the road unless things change to that country up there. >> i have a huge issue with this. >> i'm bringing in the panel. >> the reason we are having trouble with the middle class is we're legislating them out of existence. the 6 million small businesses in this country that represent the middle class, are now in a situation where there's 2,800 new regulations just last year from this administration. the reason we're under pressure, there's low productivity and low wage growth, is the government, jesse. that's the problem. too much government. that's why we're in trouble. >> i didn't say nothing contrary to that. i said they're also destroying unions, too. >> i like that.

unions breed mediocrity. reagan did a good thing for this country. >> oh, yeah, right? trickle-down economy. it trickles up, not down. don't give me that line of crap. >> when you have a union, you can't fire somebody that's not doing the work. that's the problem. it breeds mediocrity. or you can have -- >> or you can have pro wrestling where there's no union. you get no health care. there's no retirement benefits. you're strictly on your own. you're a pro wrestler but required to be a financial planner, too, right? come on. >> governor, let me ask you this. we've now been through a period. this isn't 1989. we've had several different administrations. several different republicans and democrats in the white house. it seems hard to identify any one of them as the single or principal cause or problem, does it not?

>> yeah. that's my point. they are the problem. i lump the democrats and the republicans together. >> why are you in mexico, jesse? where are you? >> i'm off the grid. i move about with my tv show so that the drones can't find me. and you won't know exactly where i am. as long as we have solar power. and we can reach the satellite. i view the united states, today, much like east berlin. and i'm off the grid. i've tried for 20 years to warn the country about the democrats and republicans. and nobody's listening. >> how can you be off the grid if you're on the internet. >> from the inside, looking out. now, i'm doing it from the outside looking in. i now view the united states from the outside. and i don't like what i see. you know what the favorite t-shirt was down here a couple years ago? a picture of george bush. and it said weapon of mass destruction. is that the way we want the united states portrayed throughout the world? i don't think so. >> jesse, this is carol roth.

and i want to ask you a question as somebody who is an independent. and i believe that -- i actually believe that the majority of people in this country are independents. we have a two-party system that isn't working. a lot of people's voices aren't getting heard and aren't getting represented because of all the money that's in the system here. so, from your perspective, how do we get new voices, more independent voices, into the system so that we can effect change? >> or in the country? >> i think you and kevin are both right. >> the point is this -- that's the 800-pound gorilla. getting the american people to believe that there's other choices other than democrats or republicans. you know, they've been in charge of our country for the last 150 years. so, they have to bear total responsibility for the mess we're in. and it disturbs me greatly when a new kid, a new child is born today. and when they take their first

breath of air, they're already $50,000 in debt. who's responsible for that? the democrats and the republicans. >> there's so much money in the system. and it being so costly. a presidential campaign costs $1 billion. with all the good candidates out there and all the people i know who would be fantastic respects, unless they have the blessing of one party or another, they don't feel they have a shot. so, how do we give them a shot, in your opinion? >> how did jesse ventura do it? >> we want to know. >> that's because you mainstream media people marginalize me. nobody covered my election. when i ran for governor of minnesota, i only raised $300,000. i actually made more money doing the job than i spent to get it. >> i love what you did. >> but no one wants to talk about that. >> you came out of nowhere. you were successful. now, i want to understand your new project. you're roaming around in the

desert. you're off the grid, as you're calling it. how do you make money? that's what i want to know. >> how do i make money? >> yes. >> i don't need the money. i've made the money. i've already made enough money. >> this network -- >> i can take care of myself and my family until i die. >> this network, you have employees working on it. how do they make money? >> i'm actually -- i'm solving problems. what do they call us? what's that term again? i'm a -- help me, guys. a job creator. yeah. there we got it. i've been doing a lot of interviews. i'm a job creator. and i'm not only creating jobs, putting mexicans to work, i'm stopping them from running across the border, now, and taking our jobs because my whole staff said if i wasn't down here, and i didn't have them, they'd be coming up to america, looking for jobs. >> we're out of time. jesse, we'll just have to continue the discussion. i'm almost speechless. but we will, of course, be

watching. thank you for joining us this afternoon. really appreciate it. that's governor jesse ventura. >> thank you. i appreciate it. thanks for having me. >> you bet. get the final tweets in. we want to know if you can tell when the markets hit the bottom. your thoughts, up next. ♪ ♪ where you think you're gonna go ♪ ♪ when your time's all gone? [ male announcer ] live a full life. the new lexus ct hybrid with an epa estimated 42 mpg. ♪ the further you go, the more interesting it gets. this is the pursuit of perfection.

open to innovation. open to ambition. open to bold ideas. that's why new york has a new plan -- dozens of tax free zones all across the state. move here, expand here, or start a new business here and pay no taxes for ten years... we're new york. if there's something that creates more jobs, and grows more businesses... we're open to it. start a tax-free business at startup-ny.com. cozy or cool "meow" or "woof"? exactly the way you want it ... until boom! your mattress a battleground of thwarted desire. enter the sleep number bed. an innovative design that lets couples sleep together in individualized comfort. he's the softy: his sleep number setting is 35. you're the rock, at 60.

as your needs change, you can adjust your sleep number bed, so you can sleep better together. the ultimate sleep number event is on now only at a sleep number store. with queen mattresses as low as $599.99 know better sleep with sleep number. to manage your money.r guy around 2 percent that's not much, you think except it's 2 percent every year. go to e*trade and find out how much our advice and guidance costs. spoiler alert. it's low. it's guidance on your terms not ours. e*trade. less for us, more for you.

welcome back. so, we've been asking, how will you know when the market has bottomed? what gauges are you watching? you guys have been tweeting. here's some of your thoughts. michael says bottom is when my personal account is down so much, i sell everything. 100% accurate. james tweets, since i'm young, 20s, i don't worry about bottoms. i buy through the dips and learn. time is my friend. i love that. and joe tweets, when i see triple-digit midday reversal to the upside on heavy volume, i'll feel much better about getting back in. we didn't see that today. >> someone was saying when jesse ventura is touting border policy, that's the bottom. >> thanks for joining me on the panel. and catch mr. kevin o'leary on the "shark tank" marathon beginning tonight, 8:00 p.m. right here on cnbc.

melissa lee, nice color. >> great minds think alike. we have a former harvard business school professor, a professor of economics, who recently pulled out every, single penny of his account, his banking account. every single penny out. $1 million. >> i saw you tweet this, about bank of america, right? >> exactly. >> this, i've got to hear. a lot of people were talking about this. >> it has to do with the fed. it has to do with the emerging markets. that's what they call in tv land, a tease. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site in new york's times square. i'm melissa lee. we'll introduce you to the company that brings its hedge fund and trader clients actionable news alerts. the ceo of data miner will join us. let's get straight to our top story tonight. what could be the next major threat to this market, the consumer. another spike in natural gas today, which could have a negative impact on consumer