melissa lee, nice color. >> great minds think alike. we have a former harvard business school professor, a professor of economics, who recently pulled out every, single penny of his account, his banking account. every single penny out. $1 million. >> i saw you tweet this, about bank of america, right? >> exactly. >> this, i've got to hear. a lot of people were talking about this. >> it has to do with the fed. it has to do with the emerging markets. that's what they call in tv land, a tease. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site in new york's times square. i'm melissa lee. we'll introduce you to the company that brings its hedge fund and trader clients actionable news alerts. the ceo of data miner will join us. let's get straight to our top story tonight. what could be the next major threat to this market, the consumer. another spike in natural gas today, which could have a negative impact on consumer spending.

it is up now more than 25% so far this year. plus, mixed reaction from the latest reports out of michael kors and jcpenney. concerned about the day. consumers open up heating bills for the month of january and maybe february, and feel that sting. >> if you heat with natural gas, it's up 30% in this month. we saw that consumers are starting to dip into savings. savings rate went down. you're not earning as much. you get a heating oil shock or a natural gas shock, that's a problem. and people blame the weather all the time. but it is the wintertime. it does snow. it does get cold. that's a news flash in case anybody was wondering. it gets cold in the winter. cars aren't being sold. everything has peaked out. it appears to be in the economy. and tomorrow, we have ism, nonmanufacturing, service industry, if that tanks, watch out. you can't blame the weather on that. those are all inside jobs, last time i checked. >> you're a midwest guy.

there's a propane shortage. and for 30% of residents who use a propane-fueled heating system, their bills will rise by about two-times, compared to last year. this is according to the ohio propane association. >> one thing i would push back on b.k. right now, is this has been extreme. this is not just, the weather's pretty bad and everybody's starting to suffer. this is something that's affected the entire northeast. and you look towards the midwest. and towards maine, this has been a monstrous season, the entire month of january. you look at how that's affecting the airlines, for instance, with all of the various delays and some of those canceled flights. everything coming together. it comes down to what people want to spend their money on. you look at the gas pump, that's a little cheaper right now. i look at michael kors. they blew those earnings away. under armour, blew it away last week. and jcpenney you see that their sales improved a little bit. but what did they improve against?

absolutely nothing. they were down 30% last year. consumers can spend in certain areas of the marketplace. and they're very specific where they're going to spend their money. >> are we back into this buy for retailers where you have the high-end spending and the lower end will be impacted by heating bills. >> i don't think we got out of it. i think they're the have and have-nots in consumer land. they're numbers were ridiculous. they smoked them. you want to talk about guidance maybe being an issue. that's just nit-picking. kors quarter was unbelievable. you have a tiffany's and the other side of the retail side. i don't think the consumer is as healthy as the market indicated they are. i think they made the same mistakes four or five years ago. it's a structure unemployment problem. i think it comes home to roost. >> i don't think the market is indicating the consumer is healthy at all. it's massively underperformed the s&p, down about 5%. and what have we seen in the last week or so? walmart preannounce.

amazon report disappointing revenues. so, to me, we just got out of a strong consumer period. the consumer spent about as much money as they could over the last few months. when you look at the january auto sales from ford and gm, they're telling you. they're full up buying. there's nothing left they can do right now. when you put the headwinds in, it could be a tough few months for the consumer. >> and incomes are weak. that's a layer of complexity to this issue. in terms of the trade here, you've been long nat gas? >> still long nat gas. i thought i would be taking some off. but it's been so strong. it was up almost 10% today. we're starting to see cold going into the next couple weeks. i would imagine some time in february, i'll be getting out of natural gas. but the momentum's on the upside. >> is there a short to be had, in terms of the lower-end retailers? >> there's some. personally, i'm in jcpenney on

the short side. i stayed on the halftime show earlier today that i think the stock is plummeting. i think $1 is somewhere in the cards in the not-too-distant future. >> you're going to short this until a dollar. >> that gives me a -- >> what's the inspiration? >> i'm about three months out. i'm in the may puts. and the four strike puts. they have been exploding to the upside. i think this name has a very difficult time figuring out how they're going to turn. when you lose a customer, i've been saying this about a year, when you lose the customer, to get them back is an incredible process. and i don't know how jcpenney's going to. >> the equity's becoming worthless. when they raised capital, they eluded shareholders by 20%. they have $1.5 billion market cap. $5 billion in debt. they said they have about $2 billion in liquids. i don't know. to me, it's a distressed equity. and a lot of options players are

playing for a zero. >> we never saw them close a lot of those. a big, huge put buying positions we had seen months and months ago. no one closed those. those are out there. >> and it feels as though this year's jcpenney is sears holdings. made another 52-week low. the short interest is astronomical. it's probably approaching 60%. that's a tough short. pete can speak to the options. i'm sure they're expensive. it feels as though sears holdings wants to go the way of jcp. >> should we be concerned about gpd at this point? >> yes. gdp has been strong because of inventory builds. when the consumer cuts back, those inventories sit there. inventory's a double-edged sword. it's good on the way up. but you have to have people buy. >> what was that big number? 3.8 gdp? as long as people buy stuff on

the back end of that, that's a crazy number. if the inventory sits around, not very good. >> stocks closed higher. but wall street isn't breathing a sigh of relief yet. paul, good to see you. >> good to be here. >> put what we've seen in context, in terms of the 5% lower from highs. >> you have to put a little perspective here. this was the longest stretch we went during this bull market without a 5% pullback. we had 18 other pullbacks. it's been run of the mill. it's gone over 25 calendar days. and we're about 5% over 20 calendar days. it's going according to plan right now. if you look at the sectors that have been leading the market lower, it's been the sectors that have been leading the market lower. it's very textbook pullback that we've seen. at this point, i wouldn't see too much of things to worry about here. and another thing to worry about, they say tops are a process rather than -- you don't

have inverted "v" tops. typically, even if we are in a topping process for this bull market, you would expect to see at least a retest of the highs. >> you don't see, according to what you're looking at, you don't see necessarily -- you don't see more downside, do you? >> we may see a few percentage points. but for people thinking like this bull market's over, we're not viewing it that way at all. >> you mentioned the "v." the s&p 500's down 5%. but stocks like boeing that were massive market leaders last year, are down off of all-time highs, pretty sharply. that price action, like you say, tops are processes. but some large leaders from last year are not acting like it. how do you account for that activity? >> i think a lot of people will say this isn't a good, valid reason. you saw massive gains in 2013. people didn't want to sell positions before year's end to take a tax hit.

they can delay it by a year by selling in january. that's one reason to look at here. and unlike the prior two bear markets. in 2000, texts peaked and crashed. in 2007, financials crashed and the market followed suit. we're not seeing any sector really falling apart here. the consumer has been weak. but it's down only a little more. the consumer discretionary sector is down only a little over the overall market. and they underperform during pullbacks. it's not out of the norm yet. >> are you taking advantage of anything that's pulled back in your views? banking on that outsized bounce when the market turns? >> what we did for clients today, we sent out a report of names that look attractive. and two other criteria, they've outperformed year-to-date, and have reported earnings. you don't want to get blind sided with an earnings miss. taking the four sectors that lead us in rallies, you have the consumer discretionary sector.

comcast is a name that looks attractive there. you have the financial sector, bank of america is a name that looks attractive. industrials, alliant tech systems. the earnings revenues and raise guidance the last two quarters. that stock has held up well during this pullback. and then, materials, dow chemical. that stock's held up well. they reported earnings. and you have an activist investor there shaking things up. >> paul, thanks for joining us. comcast, the parent of nbc universal. we have breaking news. we have to go back to dom chu at headquarters. google you're watching. >> google and a compensation package. we're talking about eric schmidt. the compensation committee at google has decided to award eric schmidt, the chairman of the company, a $6 million cash bonus. but also granting him a $100 million restricted stock unit bon

bonus. $100 million of google stock, that's going to invest over four years in may of 2015. not necessarily the massive market-moving stock. it's interesting to know that according to google's leadership and development committee, that eric schmidt has done a good enough job to get a $100 million restricted stock bonus and $6 million bonus. >> google, a very big year. 1186 was the high, hit just recently. dan, you are a bear on google. why? >> i think it's a crowded trade. this company's executed very well. eric schmidt may deserve that $6 million bonus. it gained the market cap of ebay and yahoo! in the last three months. things are going very well. but i do see some issues here. in that quarter they just reported, they did miss on earnings. costs were lower for the second quarter in a row. and margins are lower. the stock is priced for perfection. it has very good growth. they do not guide. so, they didn't guide the streets or anything. if there's a hiccup, i think we

see the stock down 5% quickly. >> we're seeing the earnings. the reaction in google stock. you thought that was surprising given what you called a benign quarter. >> that's up $40. it did surprise me. i thought the quarter was exactly that, benign. not nearly good enough to get the stock to where we want. but google's a great story. valuations are reasonable. to dan's point, there's a good chance it's benign to a lousy take. it goes down to a $1,000 level. just means the trade might be over for now on the long side. >> apple, the stock showing signeds of life as it finds support, going up to what has been the 200-day moving average, 510. what do you see in terms of the options market? >> there's been activity on the positive side. we've been watching the stock since earnings drop. i think katie huberty had a piece out from morgan stanley.

she talked about wearables. when everybody was coming out, what is the big story? all about wearables. she estimates this could contribute to apple. $17.5 billion in revenue per year, if and when the wearables come out. >> that's a lot of ifs and whens. >> we do know some of the investments they've made. and i believe in the fact that they're going to be coming out. we've seen the acquisitions that make me think the wearables is not too far in the distant future. and that is something that could contribute. probably not this year. but into '15. where's the growth? i think that's one of the areas. >> karen finerman said before the close she bought into apple because apple was an outperformer on a down day. it was a price action that got her back into the trade. >> since the earnings report, and the stock down about 10%, the options activity has spoken to the fact that the company is out there buying back stock. a lot of delta one trading going

on between the options. it could speak to the fact that there's some banks out there doing accelerated buyback for the company. the shareholder meeting is february 18. mr. icahn is all over this thing. he wants to see increased buybacks. >> this happened last year around this time. >> it did. >> does that mean this pop we've seen over the past couple days is a pseudopop? >> i don't think it's a pseudopop. you had huge volume days at the end of january. flushed a lot of people out. you have something to trade against, at least in the form of 495 or wherever it bottomed out over the last week. when stocks do well on lousy takes, that's telling you something. still to come, we have a former harvard professor who was withdrawing nearly $1 million from his bank of america checking account. find out why he's doing it. plus, bill gates has a new role at microsoft. find out what it means for the shock. more "fast money" straight ahead. the new new york is open.

open to innovation. open to ambition. open to bold ideas. that's why new york has a new plan -- dozens of tax free zones all across the state. move here, expand here, or start a new business here and pay no taxes for ten years... we're new york. if there's something that creates more jobs, and grows more businesses... we're open to it. start a tax-free business at startup-ny.com. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 life inspires your trading. we're open to it. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 where others see fads... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 ...you see opportunities. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 at schwab, we're here to help tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 turn inspiration into action. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 we have intuitive platforms tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 to help you discover what's trending. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and seasoned market experts to help sharpen your instincts. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 so you can take charge tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 of your trading.

got more breaking news. this time on microsoft. let's get back to dom chu for the latest. >> we talked about eric schmidt's compensation.

let's talk about the new incoming ceo of microsoft. satya nadella. his compensation package will be $1.2 million per year. in cash in his annual salary. that's what he's going to make as the new ceo. that's a boost in pay for him. he will participate in the company's executive incentive program. he will get an annual cash award under this program that will be up to 300% of that $1.2 million base salary. he's also getting a stock award for the year 2015 for the company's fiscal year 2015, on an annualized basis. mr. nadell's award will be $13.2 million. the highlight, $1.2 million in cash. cash bonuses up to 300% of that salary. and a 2015 stock bonus of $13.2 million. >> up to 300% of his base salary

as his -- will the guy be able to deliver at this point? >> you look at the last quarter. that last quarter microsoft reported, i think might be the best quarter reported in 20 years. >> and it wasn't his. the bar is set high. >> this stock can be trading, in my opinion, north of 40 bucks. i think microsoft is fine here. >> if this guy is an insider, he's not going to shake things up too much. >> i would say, yes. if you bring somebody from the outside, it's going to take a year for them to get their arms around what microsoft is and how they're going to move this company. from grabbing somebody from the inside, who has been in the growth areas of microsoft, and he's been there. the growth there, 107% this last quarter. when you look at the growth and the right guy for the job, i absolutely think this was the top guy that should have been named to this position. i don't think you had to be in a hurry.

they named him. now, they move forward. our top trades for the day. facebook entering its second decade as a social networking site turns 10 years old today. the stock up 15% so far this year. pete? >> when you look at facebook, everybody talked about can they convert into mobile? they've done that. now, it's 53% of their revenue itself. the growth they've been able to show us in that regard, i think zuckerberg, hats off to you. fantastic job. and the mobile users, almost 1 billion, as well. that speaks volumes of what they've been able to do. and the engagement process because of that is huge. and that's why they're able to get the kind of money they get from the ads. >> nice day for facebook today. >> they're firing on all cylinders. the only issue i have, people want to pat them on the back for this conversion to mobile. if they didn't do it, they would be dead. where is it coming from? it's coming from the desktop. you're going to have growth

slowing dramatically. the stock is a crazy valuation. a unique social property, you own a piece of it and let it ride. >> it's about engagement. and it's about targeting. instagram. they have done acquisitions along the way that feeds into this whole thing, as well. >> it's so new. we know why the web bubble burst because people stopped clicking on banner ads. and people get annoyed by the news feed ads that will continue to grow. but at some point, it won't grow at a hefty rate. >> it's been a data mine piece for them. they know who they are and know how to attack. as opposed to the banner ads that are out there. this is directly at dan because they know what bars you like to go to. >> i like how you go to bars first. >> around you guys. >> you guys? i'm minding my business. pete and i were actually born on the same day. >> like two days apart, right? >> four days apart.

>> can't tell you apart. tweedle dee and tweedle dum here. getting ahead of the latest news on the street before it trends on twitter. there's a start-up for that.

let me talk to you about retirement. a 401(k) is the most sound way to go. let's talk asset allocation. sure. you seem knowledgeable, professional. would you trust me as your financial advisor? i would. i would indeed. well, let's be clear here. i'm actually a dj. [ dance music plays ] [laughs] no way! i have no financial experience at all. that really is you? if they're not a cfp pro, you just don't know. find a certified financial planner professional who's thoroughly vetted at letsmakeaplan.org. cfp -- work with the highest standard. in a we believe outshining the competition tomorrow quires challenging your business inside and out today. at cognizant, we help forward-looking companies run better and run different - to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you.

so if you're ready to see opportunities and see them through, we say: let's get to work. because the future belongs to those who challenge the present. ♪ twitter gearing up to release its first-ever earnings report tomorrow. with 500 million tweets sent every year, there's an enormous amount of information transmitted over the site. one company has found a way to sift through that information, finding key data before it starts trending.

joining us is ted bailey, the ceo, chairman and founder of dataminr. thank you for joining us. >> thank you. >> there's other services that try to do this. how does your service differentiate itself in deciding what is a valid tweet? you see things trend and they're not necessarily true. for one, you don't know the validity of it. >> as you mentioned, with 500 million tweets, that's a lot of tweets. for the financial professional, they need someone to pinpoint the relevant information and alert them to be sure to be aware of it. our software specifically looks at emergent patterns of conversation. and gets confident enough to go into the work flow of the financial professional and provide them an alert. >> let's get to specific examples. that's where the payoff is, right? >> absolutely.

>> what actionable ideas come out of this. you brought a couple. one has to do with blackberry. when did your software detect what was going on with blackberry? >> dataminr provided an alert to our financial professionals three minutes ahead of financial wires when blackberry shifted its strategy and decided not to sell. what happened specifically in this instance, is when "the globe" and "mail" tweeted this before it was published. ultimately, we provided a three-minutes heads-up that became a 20% market move in the stock. it was a three-minute lead on -- ahead of a 20% decline in blackberry stock. >> is there a human that actually comes in at any point in time? or is it all software-driven? all algorithm-driven? is it just that your software detected that tweet.

blackberry's a canadian company. they have the scoop on the story and it's worth sending to clients? >> we built the real-time discovery engine and find these tweets, ascertain relevancy and deliver them into the desktop. >> how does the s.e.c. feel about this, if they feel anything at all? >> twitter is a public platform. the act of tweeting the act of tweeting is the act of disclosing publicly. it can be akin or liken to saying something on tv or standing up in a square saying, hear me now. ultimately, twitter and what we get from it is all public. there's no difficulties from a compliance perspective. >> this is similar to a type of program. have you done what your pnl is, your win/loss percentage on these? >> we have a number of examples across the last couple years. >> if i just said, i'm going to use your system, and i'm going

to manage a fund this way, what would i expect to make? >> i don't have that specific number. what i can say is that really, every week, there's one of these alpha advantages. every day, there's financially relevant information that emerges first on twitter that we're alerting clients to. it's incredible how twitter has established itself as the front edge of information. and our software finds things very often. this is not a once in a blue plan type of event. >> ted bailey, dataminr. we're all on twitter, to varying degrees. how do you use twitter? >> i use it frequently p i like to let people know what i'm thinking. sitting on set, here, midday, if we don't get a chance to touch on something on a topic that i think is important. there's a lot of different ways to use twitter and let people know how you're thinking about. for instance, right now, thinking about you and you you're using this and what it

means for twitter, as they go in. >> would you ever put on a trade based on a twitter tip? >> depends. i will say that if there's a stock moving and a market moving that i don't know what's going on, i go and look at twitter. if i find something that's interesting and worthwhile, yeah. >> you made a great point. it's one input. if you're using a service like this, it's going to give you more time to figure out what they're telling you. and then, act on it. >> should emerging markets have you running from the banks? coming up, we talk to a former harvard economics professor who pulled all of his money from bank of america. and the analyst who just removed citi as his top pick because of e.m. worries. (announcer) scottrade knows our clients trade and invest their own way. with scottrade's smart text, i can quickly understand my charts, and spend more time trading. their quick trade bar lets my account follow me online so i can react in real-time. plus, my local scottrade office is there to help.

because they know i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. i'm with scottrade. (announcer) ranked highest in investor satisfaction with self-directed services by j.d. power and associates. [ chainsaw whirring ] humans -- sometimes life trips us up. sometimes we trip ourselves up. and although the mistakes may seem to just keep coming at you, so do the solutions. like multi-policy discounts from liberty mutual insurance. save up to 10% just for combining your auto and home insurance. call liberty mutual insurance at... [ thump ] to speak with an insurance expert and ask about all the personalized savings available for when you get married, move into a new house, or add a car to your policy. personalized coverage and savings. all the things humans need to make our world a little less imperfect.

call... and ask about all the ways you could save. liberty mutual insurance. responsibility. what's your policy?

♪ welcome back to "fast money." we're live at the nasdaq market site in times square. is emerging market weakness putting your checking account at risk? your next guest says things are so bad, he's withdrawn nearly $1 million from his bank of america checking account because he doesn't think it is safe anymore. joining us is terry burnham,

associate presser at harvard business school. the twitter feedback, when i tweeted you were going to be on the show has been enormous. and a lot of people say this guy's nuts. terry, why are you doing this? what risk do you see in the banking system, which many would argue is safer and more well-capitalized than during the crisis. >> melissa, thanks for having me on. i love the show. the connection is that 0% interest rate for bank of america account is not a good deal. the risk of having a bank account that pays 0% interest, there's another crisis. the crisis a is as large as the last one, and depositors risk delay or default of some of their money. it's a bad deal. and what's interesting about the psychology of it is, i'm not making any direct connections to the emerging markets and bank of america's balance sheet. but the instability that was created by fed policy is linked

to both of those. i think the fed is behind the problem in the emerging market. and behind the zero interest rate. >> i was going to ask you that. bank of america is probably one of the least exposed to the emerging market risk, if there is a risk. in terms of emerging markets, 2% from latin america, 7% from emea. essentially what you're saying is you're better off having your money wherever it is right now because there might be some possibly black swan event, which could pose any risk because there's no payoff, in your view, to having your money in a bank account. >> the fed set the rate at zero. i'm not sure it has to be a black swan. maybe a gray swan. banks have the same problem they've had throughout history. they barrow short-term and lend long-term. they're always at risk for problems. and the next problem will come along at some point.

and b of a will be in trouble then. >> embedded in your decision to pull your money, do you say the stock market's in jeopardy, as well? or are they mutually exclusive? >> i think the stock market is in jeopardy. the fwed can destroy wealth, they can transfer wealth but not create wealth. we've become complacent. and what's interesting is the little cracks we see in argentina and turkey, lead us to thoughts about other parts of the world. b of a in my case, or in your case, the question of the broader u.s. market. >> we're going to leave it there for now. stick around. we want to see if emerging markets should be a concern in terms of investing. we have wells fargo analyst matt brunell here. and you removed citi from your prior list. and citi has more exposure to e.m. >> they outperformed

recommendations. i wouldn't say it was a full-scale downgrade of the name. it was more a timing reaction to what we think is the market sensitivity to concerns about e.m., particularly after a very strong third-quarter performance for the large cap backs. >> you cited in your report there's been in the last 30 days, the time the report was published, a 60 correlation between citi stock and eem. do you see that? or is that abating? it looks like since your report, if you take a look at eem and where it's been, it's basically flat from that day. we've seen wild swings. but we're basically where we were. >> i think it's the latter point. i think you're starting to see a disapa disapags. it's not close to 70%. it goes back to market psychology than the fundamentals at citigroup, which we think are intact.

>> would you lump morgan stanley in with that group? it seems that morgan stanley is getting whooshed up in the e.m. concern. >> if it is, that's the markets doing the market's work. if you look at the exposure to emerging markets, it's exceptionally low. the fundamentals don't argue that should be the case. again, the markets are concerned about emerging markets. and they're taking that out on names that may not -- >> i think the market concern about morgan stanley is exposure in europe. and the european banks and the emerging markets. when you look at the credit default swap market, morgan stanley is more expensive to insure than citibank. at what point do you start getting concerned about morgan stanley? >> i think it would take a much bigger challenge to the emerging markets. if you look at the emerging market cds spreads. they're wider in the last 30 days. they're not as wide as certain points in 2013. to me, that tells me, yes, the

markets are a little more concerned. but we're not talking about the concern level that we had in 1997. we're not talking about the concern level that we had in 2001. >> in terms of pulling all of one's money out of a bank account, is that -- would that be a black swan event? where i would be in a position where i would have to pull out all my money and i might not be able to see that money because my money is lent out? i mean -- the realm of possibility here. >> look, speaking as somebody who works for wells fargo, i would tell you that that potential is exceptionally, exceptionally small. if you look, back to your earlier point. if you look at the liquidity of bank of america, it is three-times what it was heading into the crisis. if you look at the capital raiseer. they are more than double what they were five years ago.

we have a more active fed, whether you like the interest rate policy or not, in terms of regulation now. and the one point that he's failed to make was, for most depositors under $250,000, they're insured by the federal government. >> exactly. >> you may not like that, as a governmental matter. but that's the law. >> right. matt, thank you for coming by. matt burnell. wells fargo. are you still there? three exceptionals when it's describing the probabilities of it being exceptionally low. what are you doing with your money right now? there is a cost to you for pulling the money out and sitting on it. >> yes. obviously before crises occur, nobody's worried about them. and when they change, they change quickly. any crisis you want to look at,

they were 50 basis points until all of a sudden, they were 1,000. nobody's going to know about the crisis until it hits. and if you move your money out of a bank, you have to move it somewhere else. and those all have risks. i outlined a few in the making sense web page where i posted this. and they're all tricky. some of them are things like paying ahead your debts, so your debts are lower and your cash is safely with the person you owe money to. but i think more broadly, i want to return for the psychological point here, which is that the volatility of banks and emerging markets, which you noted are correlated, are both being driven by fed policy, which i think has created unnecessary volatility, which is good for professional traders. but bad for nonprofessional traders. the other point i make there is, only people who make over $90,000 a year support the fed's policy. that's reflective of the fact that these policies create

instability, which transfers wealth from people who are relatively poor and unfi unsophisticated. the connection is, i'm not saying that bank of america is going to go bankrupt tomorrow because of emerging markets. i'm saying bank of america is more fragile than it would be because of fed policy. >> we're going to leave it there. thank you for your time. appreciate it. >> thank you very much. >> professor terry burnham of chapman. guy adami. >> hi, there. >> would you pull out all of your -- however much you have. >> i need to be a professor at harvard, clearly. i'm doing something wrong. '08 or '09. there was a three-day window when it felt like -- >> there was concern about the run on the banks. >> and people that are a lot smarter than me than i worked for in my past firm that said, you should seriously concern getting your money out of the bank. we saw those days in the last five or six years. so, it's not that far-fetched.

would i do it? he makes compelling arguments. >> brian kelly is predicting a meltdown in one market. talk about doom and gloom after the break. how one jonas brother is planning to make bank of his new baby. pay my bill. phone: your account is already paid in full. oh, well in that case, back to vacation mode. ♪boots and pants and boots and pants♪ ♪and boots and pants and boots and pants♪ ♪and boots and pants... voice-enabled bill pay. just a tap away on the geico app. ♪ huh, 15 minutes could save you 15% or more on car insurance. yup, everybody knows that. well, did you know that some owls aren't that wise. don't forget about i'm having brunch with meagan tomorrow. who? seriously, you met her like three times. who? geico. open to innovation. open to ambition. open to bold ideas. that's why new york has a new plan -- dozens of tax free zones all across the state. move here, expand here, or start a new business here

and pay no taxes for ten years... we're new york. if there's something that creates more jobs, and grows more businesses... we're open to it. start a tax-free business at startup-ny.com. tdd#: 1-888-648-602121 tjust waiting to be found. ties we're open to it. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 at schwab, we're here to help tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 bring what inspires you tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 out there... in here. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 out there, tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 there are stocks on the move. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 in here, streetsmart edge has tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 chart pattern recognition tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 which shows you which ones are bullish or bearish. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 now, earn 300 commission-free online trades. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 call 1-888-648-6021 tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 or go to schwab.com/trading to learn how. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 our trading specialists can tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 help you set up your platform. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 because when your tools look the way you want tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 and work the way you think, you can trade at your best. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 get it all with no trade minimum. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 and only $8.95 a trade. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 open an account and earn 300 commission-free online trades.

tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 call 1-888-648-6021 to learn more. tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 so you can take charge tdd#: 1-888-648-6021 of your trading.

time for pops and drops. a big mover, arm holdings. >> this is one of the big picture things. makes me worry about apple. it held 40. i'm not sure i would do short. >> open table, up. >> the analyst at citi was a sell on this. he took advantage to upgrade it to neutral. the report on february 6th. it's been in a steep uptrend. this is a $100 table. might be worth looking on the long side. >> young brands, a pop. moved 9%. >> the stock was underperforming the broad market. the company did better than expected. it's been concern that their exposure to china is the story here. the stock probably finds resistance in the mid-70s.

>> drop for radio shack. >> this stock can't get turning right. they had great ads in the super bowl. i think everybody liked the return to the '80s. it's not the problem. they have to fix the stores. they closed 500 of them. they have to do something else to get this going in the right direction. >> and we have a pop for baby branding. >> huh? >> kevin jonas of the jonas brothers and his wife welcomed a baby girl. but it was a laundry detergent that broke the news on twitter. it was part of a sponsorship deal that the couple did with procter & gamble, giving the detergent the content on the baby. >> i am not making this stuff up. i never left the '80s, as pete didn't, either. >> love the '80s. >> he watches the show. >> that's totally not true. >> the little baby? >> not the baby.

>> kevin jonas? >> joe and sam, right? am i right? bang. i nailed that. >> you would know. >> he was in his transam and driving around with his t-tops. where did he go? the '80s are back, baby. turning, now, to puerto rico, in all serious news. in the last hour, s&p downgraded to country's credit rating with concerns about its ability to access capital markets. was this expected? >> it was expected. i mean, the puerto rican are trading between 65 cents to 75 cents on the dollar. most people expected this. you could have problems if you have a bond fund that owned this. now, they have to get out of it. i would be a little concerned. but again, there is ultimately the u.s. backstop. >> japan's nikkei fell 4%. but it's not the equity market. beaker is not worried about puerto rico. you're worried about this. >> the japanese bond market has

been short for 15 years and everybody lost money on it. in the last 4% drawdown in the nikkei, you saw the bond market not respond that well. in fact, if you look at it compared to the u.s. bond market, it was almost a 2-1 ratio. yields went lower two-times as fast in the u.s. as they did in japan. then, look at the credit swap market in the last month. japan's starting to go up. we have a tokyo general election this weekend, which could be a referendum. in april, you have a sales tax increase. if all these things come together and your bond yields go up, japan has a huge problem. and it will make greece look like a side show. >> are you investing? >> i'm short jjbs. there's an etf. it's thinly traded. i think it's jgb something or other. that's the way to do it. but this is a better trade than a lot of people have made a fool

on this time, perhaps, maybe i won't look like a fool. who knows? >> heavy-duty -- heavy-active activity. the video game stocks, after a disappointing forecast. dan nathan made it to the smart board. >> today was an interesting day. there was a ton of volume. i'm going to hit two names in particular, where traders were taking profits. electronic arts has massively outperformed the markets. one trader was looking out to june and monetizing gains in a call spread. the calls traded 2-1-times normal fanorm normal daily volume. also, zynga. and taking in profits with a very bullish spread. take two is the one i want to focus on here. 15-times average daily volume here. the stock was down 10% on a

disappointing outlook. this trader made a bullish bet. looking out to september, they sold the september 13th put 25,000-times and bought 25,000 september 22 calls. they paid 22 cents for that. what's interesting about the trade is they do not break even until 30% higher on september expiration. the stock is down about 20% from where the trader put the trade on and he puts in the stock and starts losing money. this is interesting. this is a ten-year chart of take two. this is where the trader starts to lose money. this is where the trader starts to make money. and between this level, all they're risking is 20 cents. defining a big range in which nothing happens. and if there's a big news or a takeout or something like that, it's a lot of leverage to the upside. >> more "options action" every friday. check out the website, too. coming up, pete najarian, the pit boss, spotted unusual

activity in one stock today. he'll break it down. ♪ [ bell ringing, applause ] five tech stocks with more than a 10%... change in after-market trading. ♪ all the tech stocks with a market cap... of at least 50 billion... are up on the day. 12 low-volume stocks... breaking into 52-week highs. six upcoming earnings plays... that recently gapped up. [ male announcer ] now the world is your trading floor. get real-time market scanning wherever you are with the mobile trader app. from td ameritrade. ♪ we asked people a question, how much money do you think you'll need when you retire? $500,000. maybe half-million. say a million dollars. [ dan ] then we gave each person a ribbon to show how many years that amount might last. ♪ i was trying to like pull it a little further. you know, i was trying to stretch it a little bit more.

[ woman ] got me to 70 years old. i'm going to have to rethink this thing. [ man ] i looked around at everybody else and i was like, "are you kidding me?" [ dan ] it's just human nature to focus on the here and now. so it's hard to imagine how much we'll need for a retirement that could last 30 years or more. so maybe we need to approach things differently, if we want to be ready for a longer retirement. ♪ ♪ we still run into problems. that's why liberty mutual insurance offers accident forgiveness if you qualify, and new car replacement,

standard with our auto policies. so call liberty mutual at... today. and if you switch, you could save up to $423. liberty mutual insurance. responsibility. what's your policy?

hanes celestial moving lower on earnings. let's get to dominic chu with the details. >> hain has taken a hit on a revenue guidance number. that's despite the fact that earnings and sales were in line with analyst expectations. the company mentioned that gross margins were negatively impacted in the quarter. shares of the company are flat so far entering today in this aftermarket. but they're up nearly 60% over the course of the last one year. perhaps some profit-taking pushing that lower, as well. back to you. >> thanks, dom. hain celestial. >> it's interesting. the quarter's not terrible. slight revenue miss. it cleared the guidance. when you trade at that valuation, unless you say everything right, that's going to happen. the story is fine. but you have to wait to let this sort itself out. clearly broke through 90. feels like it wants to trade

down at the 80 level. >> some unusual activity. and pete najarian looking at a paid tv service. >> directv. you look at the growth and the earnings recently. they've been phenomenal. the great fundamentals of this story. somebody went out today, september 80-strike calls, a huge amount. about 7,500, 10,000 total. something to keep your eye on. they didn't come directly in the short-term. but in the outer terms in september, looking for the upside. and it feels like your lifeate revolves around your symptoms, ask your gastroenterologist about humira adalimumab.

humira has been proven to work for adults who have tried other medications but still experience the symptoms of moderate to severe crohn's disease. in clinical studies, the majority of patients on humira saw significant symptom relief, and many achieved remission. humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. serious, sometimes fatal events, such as infections, lymphoma, or other types of cancer, have happened. blood, liver and nervous system problems, serious allergic reactions, and new or worsening heart failure have occurred. before starting humira, your doctor should test you for tb. ask your doctor if you live in or have been to a region where certain fungal infections are common. tell your doctor if you have had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have symptoms such as fever, fatigue, cough, or sores. you should not start humira if you have any kind of infection. ask your gastroenterologist about humira today. remission is possible. open to innovation. open to ambition. open to bold ideas. that's why new york has a new plan -- dozens of tax free zones all across the state.

move here, expand here, or start a new business here and pay no taxes for ten years... we're new york. if there's something that creates more jobs, and grows more businesses... we're open to it. start a tax-free business at startup-ny.com.

time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. pete najarian? >> fox because of what happened with the super bowl. foxa. >> oil is up today. there's going to be exports coming out of the u.s. to europe. >> did you just say the europe. >> that's like the twitter. and the online. >> dan? >> google feels trade to me. i'm long february puts. >> guy?

>> we have a storm coming. upl, my pit boss turned me on to this. not up today. but going up higher. >> i'm melissa lee. thank you for watching. see you tomorrow at tomorrow a. meantime, "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. >> my mission is simple you make you money. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. trying to make a little money. my job is to educate you so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. even on a day like today with a dow gaining 72 points and the nasdaq climbing it's clear this market has turned into one very demanding animal. you see the reason why so many