i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen and becky quick who are in pebble beach this morning. sara isen is joining me on the set this morning. it is jobs friday. we have a lot to talk about. >> the super bowl. >> the super bowl of jobs and the super bowl of golf. we also have to talk to joe about his -- i had a big birdie. >> birdie number seven. >> on the seventh hole. but in the meantime, i want to talk jobs. the january nonfarm payrolls, polled forecasters say the economy likely added 189,000 jobs last month. many also saying that december surprisingly low count at 74,000 net new jobs may be raised sharply. now, the unemployment rate is seen falling to 6.6%. average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 0.2%. economists say the wild card in today's report, of course, the weather. and this winter's relentless freezing. temperatures across much of the

country ahead of the 8:30 eastern report, u.s. equity futures take a look. all this may change at a moment's notice once we hit it. the dow looked like it would open higher by 4.5 points, s&p up 2.5 points and the nasdaq up 11 points. let's take a look at the ten-year. 2.707%. we've got a lot of special guests this morning on this jobs friday. the maestro himself, former fed chairman and cnbc 25 contender allan green p alan greenspan is going to join us like at 7:30. before we do that, we're going to get over to pebble beach with becky and joe. hey, guys. >> good morning. it's good to see you, andrew. good morning, sara. >> a sight for sore eyes, andrew. i believe it's maestro. >> no, it's maestro. >> i said maestro. >> i'm not talking about you.

>> not you. you said it right. a person has a prime time show now on -- stop. it's very early out here and it's nicer weather this morning. and we are enjoying pebble beach. it's been beautiful out here. joe has been playing and you've been -- >> well, it's -- i'm glad to be here, right here. i feel like this is something i'm comfortable. i don't need any practice swings. i've been hit with a ball from about 180 yards. there's been some injuries. i haven't caused any. i've been injured. >> you got to play still today. >> i have a ways to -- but you know what? i keep telling myself, a lot of these pro golfers that come in here, they -- you know, it would be like coming in here cold and not being able to do this job. >> but i bet nobody would get hurt. >> probably no one could get hurt. we're in davos?

where are we? >> you're in bebl beach. >> what time is it? >> it's about 3:00 in the morning for you, joe. i don't know, what time did you go to sleep last night? >> davos time is -- it's noon in davos. >> it's like 5:00 in the afternoon. no, it's the -- i don't know where i am or what i'm doing. >> it's noon in davos. it's 6:00 a.m. in new york. 3:00 a.m. here. i see, by the way, becky, you're wearing red, becky. >> i am. >> and sara is wearing red. i've got the tie on and this is for heart health month. >> women's. >> you have an excuse. you were packing a week in advance. i barely remembered. >> right. and i had a -- i had a six hour delay on monday with all the snow. my luggage got lost. but you know what? i have been watching, andrew. i was ready. we never got below 5.8% down on the s&p. never went -- and i was

watching, making sure. now we're back to 4% after that nice move yesterday. so 5.8 bers is the extent. >> 5% correction. not even 6%. >> it got a lot of attention. a lot of pooem people talking about it, the vix. >> you wonder if it's really over at this point. >> you do. but i've always said if the bull market is going to continue, it usually doesn't let people buy things on sale feeling really good about it. you have to step in. >> on the down days, i was putting mope in the kids' college funds. you can start doing that. and i was kind of hoping it fell a little further just so i can put more money in. anyway, at&t's chairman and ceo randle stephenson. we have scott mcnealy. kimberly clark's ceo tom falk, dave dorman, it will be interesting to talk to him about cbs's move. and we have dallas fed president

richard fisher. >> he's here? he is here. happens to be here on vacation right now. we caught up with him and got a chance to ask him to come in about the jobs report. >> he's going to give us a chance to talk about the jobs report both before and after. that's amazing to have a sitting fed president who can sit down. >> especially when we know that we're trying to gauge yellen, is she more dovish than bernanke. has there been any trepidation? will they blame it on weather? is there any thought of not continuing the 10 billion every month? >> fisher has been a proopponent of -- >> he wants to continue this taper. i think it would take a a lot for him to pull back from this. there have been some fed presidents that have suggested that raising that to 20 billion a month. >> there's been doubt that we're not out here doing business business, cnbc business, business news business, i think that this puts it to rest for richard, you know, having him on. he should be here every year

because of the chance of -- am i right or am i right? >> you are right. it doesn't look like we're trying to make sure we can continue coming up. >> well, we needed to be here this week. >> there are movers and shakers here. there's a lot of interesting things that have been happening. of course, it's not just business out here on pebble beach. joe has been busy on the golf court, as well, playing in the at&t t pro am. there will r some great highlights that have come out of this. we're going to show one video right now. why don't you take a look at what he's been up to on the golf course. this is an 18 foot putt on the seventh hole. it's a birdie for that par 3. >> take a look. take a look at this hair as i pick it out and walk away. if there's any doubt that this is a system or a -- i mean, i could afford a better rug than

that. right? >> yes. that's your real hair. >> and i know people think all my shots are like that. there were at least 75 other shots that weren't nearlily as -- i can't even say that with a straight face. 80, 85 -- no, i can't even say that with a straight face. there were a lot of -- it's really difficult with just the crowds and the -- i mean, there's the camera there. that's why you saw that because there was a -- and believe me, it's nice that they're -- >> there it is again. >> they're our friends, the golf channel. >> showing you -- >> this shows the good shot. seven is a great hole. it's a signature hole. and when the wind is blowing, i think tom when he won the open out here, he hit a 4 iron. i think i hit a gap wedge or a sand wedge. >> it was windy and rainey yesterday, too. there were a lot of delays on this. >> three-hour delays.

but everybody was in the same place. i saw peyton manning and curt russell and lucas black. do you believe slingblade? andrew, remember the kid? >> i do. the kid has grown into a major actor. there's curt. and there's another -- i don't know what i'd blame that face on. that can't just be from being wet, is it? anyway, that's me. that's who i am. we had goldy in davos a week and a half ago and now we have the hubby. >> all the family. >> there she is. there she is. >> was there a gallery? when you hit that, was there a gallery right there? >> oh, yeah. there absolutely was. >> rocket cheering. >> you stopped right before you were about to pick up your ball, though. what was going there? i noticed that. >> shock. consternation that i knew i was going on to number eight, which

is such a tough hold. there's other video from five and i did an interview and i got the kids mentioned and penelope mentioned and everything else, which i did again, as a matter of fact. >> that was well done. >> no, but anyway, it's really been amazing watching this. >> my pro is kicking tukus, too. it's a rookie, nice guy, james hahn. i noticed when they were showing a lot of the action with james, i'm walking around slouching and, you know, luckily i didn't pick my nose or anything. i didn't even know i was on camera half the time. anyway, but i digress. >> we've got to get you a hat. >> we've got to get you a hairbrush. >> a hairbrush. >> well, let's do some corporate news. we'll get back to the golf in just a minute because there's a lot more to talk about from pebble beach, including what at&t boss randle stephenson told becky about his pricing

strategy. first, some corporate headlines. new data showing that emerging market equity funds outflows so far this year have surpassed those of all of 2013. epfr global reporting that emerging equity funds have now suffering 15 straight weeks with out flows year-to-date. investors are pulled 18.6 billion from stock funds. google is partially going to be owning a nearly 6% stake in lenovo once the chinese companies dooep deal to buy motorola's hand set division. that stake will be worth $750 million. motorola agreed to buy that hand set last week for cash and stock. i wonder how long they will continue to own that. perhaps the bigger news, apple buying back $14 billion of its stock in the last two weeks since it reported those disappointing fourth quarter results. in an interview with the "wall street journal," the ceo tim cook saying he was surprised by the 8% decline na apple shares.

apple has now bought back nearly $40 billion of its shares during the past 12 months. he said look, the stock is down. we're putting our money where our mouth is. we believe in this thing. there was a great quote from carl icahn in that article, too. tim cook says i'm confident and then carl icahn said so am i. >> so am i. tim cook called it opportunistic. the interesting thing is to see the apple shareholder's day meeting february 28th, i believe. >> it will be interesting to see where the stock is a year from now. >> we have a number of other stocks to watch this morning. earnings beating the streets and the social network's revenue fell short of estimates. also watch shares of health care company etna health getting a nice boost. shares of online travel site expedia higher after its better than expected quarterly results. and activision's earnings

targets on strong holiday sales. that didn't hold back a rally in the stocks. ceo bobby kotek says he expects the coming around destiny to be the company's next $1 billion franchise. also keep an eye on news corp. the company's earnings and revenues topped wall street estimates. cost cuts helped push profits there. the company posting a profit beat, it also is raising its share back bye program and naming a warner brothers home entertainment executive to run its redbox video rental business. open table, forecasting weaker than expected quarterly earnings in the current quarter as it hires more employees and increases investments on marketing. finally, we've got a retail name for you. gap shares rising on upbeat fourth quarter and full year outlook. with that, back to you in pebble beach. becky.

>> sara, thank you. among the business leaders spending the week in pebble beach, at&t's ceo and chairman, randle stephenson. we caught up with him last night. among the topics we covered, at&t recently announced price cuts to its friends and family plans. i asked if they could turn a profit with all the bidding wars going on. >> i think this has been a fascinating evolution in our industry over the last year. because we're seeing something, i think, transformative happen as it relates to how the consumer's buying behavior has changed. .that is the consumer is being given an option. look, in the past, the carriers, the telephone companies would heavily subsidize an iphone or an android phone and give it to the customer for very little money. >> how much was the subsidy? >> on average, probably a couple hundred dollars. >> right. >> well, the customer would pay a couple hundred dollars.

>> but you were paying closer to 650 or something? >> yeah, that's probably a fair inspect. 650 would be at the high end of devices that we would buy. but you get the equation, right? the customer would pay $200 and the device could cost carriers, $500, $600. then all of a sudden we offered the customer a choice and we said, look, if you would rather pay more for the hand set, we would give you much lower price points on a recurring basis. and the consumer is overwhelmingly opting for that equation. so pay more for the hand set in exchange for lower, ongoing pricing. and we've been, you know, kind of pleased. you put that choice out there and see how the customer opts. it's good for the consumer. the consumer seems to like it very much. from our standpoint, you know, the subsidy levels go down in exchange for lower pricing and it's just a change in the business model. still to come this morning, we will bring you stephenson's thoughts on the economy. issues of nsa surveillance and at&t's critique of russia's

anti-gay laws. this is the first time he's commented. at&t was the first major advertiser to come out strongly against russia's policies against gay people. this is the first time he's talked about it. >> i'm a little out of it. when is the start? >> it's coming. >> the opening ceremonies are what? >> what is it, next week? who knows. tonight? tonight. >> yeah, that's what i mean. you see, you're more out of it -- >> than you are. >> than i am. i'm like a golf announcer. did you notice this? andrew, you have no jacket and i'm like dan hicks or something. did you see this has like a pattern in it? >> i did, i did. >> just feeling very -- i don't know. coming up, much more on the -- i feel like i need to talk a little bit quiet now. will the weather keep us in california for a couple of extra days? man, crazy weather getting out here. man, let's get the weekend weather forecast from the weather channel's alex wallace. >> good morning to you, guys.

well, we're watching things in the east where we have more wintry weather to deal with for saturday and sunday. the good news is the wintry weather is expected to be fairley light out there. we're going to track a rather weak disturbance moving its way from the west to the northeast. tomorrow brings us light know snow from des moines towards chicago. and sliding east for tomorrow, cleveland seeing some of that. eventually we'll see it move into portions of the northeast, as well. so for stoem, mid-atlantic. we've got snow around d.c. mixed to the south and then on sunday, creeping north into new england. but again, the key word is it's all going to be light impact, major travelers out there for us at all. meanwhile, the west coast, though, this is a bit of a mess here. more rain in california. great news for the drought. again for travels with the snow coming down through the interior, should be a little difficult. that will continue into tomorrow as well as sunday. the rain train, it continues. that's your national forecast. more "squawk box" coming up next.

welcome back. we got a chance to sit down with at&t's chairman and ceo randle stephenson. we got a chance to talk to him about possible deals, particularly between rivals t-mobile and sprint. he talked about the impact of the fed tapering and the state of the global economy right now. >> oh, we've been in a -- in the u.s. a sideways motion now for

three or four years. slight growth, nothing exciting. i think as people look out over the near horizon, i don't think many of us are seeing things we're going to change kind of our thinking on investment and hiring and so forth. as you look overseas at the emerging markets, i think some of the fed action is having an effect on that and it's influencing how companies are thinking about investment and so forth. but there hasn't been any great cat lit clis mick effect, right? i think our response is more to the fed than anything else. >> you said around the globe, you have some companies that may be having changes in investment strategies based on what the fed is doing. has at&t changed knit investment strategies as a result of the fed tightening? >> no. we're investing heavily in the mobile internet. we have been now for five years and we've basically told the street that we've got another $21 billion investment and we're going to make this year, in

2014. and i don't see that changing anything we're doing right now. >> what would change your behavior? is there anything that you can see from consumer spending or is this all about the long-term game plan? >> from our standpoint, it's a long-term game plan. we made a really big bet back in 200 6 time frame on the mobile internet. we began investing aggressively. acquiring spectrum in our industry, that's capacity. and we've invested literally billions of dollars. if you put spectrum and capital investment altogether over that time frame, we spent $150 billion building out this technology. and so we're going to finish the deal, as we like to say, and then complete this. >> it makes a lot of sense and particularly seeing how much activity consumer activity has grown and how much i use my own cell phone. how fast are those metrics growing at this point? >> you being an average subscriber or user of at&t's mobile technology, your data consumption, which is what's driving this, average data

consumption per subscriber is still growing 50% year over year. we're putting a ton of capacity into these networks every year and we don't see that really slowing down. as we look over the next couple of years, what we're seeing now is video consumption on these devices. people watching "squawk box" on their ipads and on their iphones and you guys are streaming content, video content. that is now really driving a whole other way of capacity requirements. >> you know, there's a lot of talk of consolidation in the industry at this print, too. you're either going to buy more spectrum or you can buy more spectrum by buying a company that has that. there's been speculation that at&t would be interested in vodafone. are you? >> i'm not going to comment on any specific m&a activity. we have talked a lot about other markets around the world that we

believe the u.s. market, what has happened in the mobile internet, is going to be replicated around the world. it will be replicated in lat latin america. it will be replicated in europe, it will be replicated in asia. so we just are always looking out around the globe and seeing where the is this scenario going to play itself out next. we think europe is one of those, so it's one of those we like to watch. but we think it's going to happen everywhere. >> there was the talk in the market yesterday that sprint would potentially be buying t-mobile, both of their stocks were up on that news. they turned and dropped again today on that. but would that surprise you to see a deal like that be able to go through? >> yeah. i would be surprised to see the regulators allow it to happen. the doj, i think recently, has addressed it openly as they didn't see it feasible. the doj, they made it abundantly

clear that they believe four national competitors is the right number. if you look at what's happening in the marketplace today, you know, you see a really intense competitive environment. we're all competing on price, we're all competing on service. and most importantly, i think is we're all competing on network quality and network capability. and you see something happening in the u.s. that's very unique around the globe. that is all four competitors here in the united states are investing aggressively in 4g, lge technology for wireless technology. and so my guess is this is exactly the environment the department of justice envisioned and when they shot down our opportunity to acquire t-mobile. so i would be surprised but, you know, we'll see what happens. >> joe, that's been a huge issue this week. the idea that sprint and t-mobile would actually team up after regulators shut down at&t's attempt to purchase them.

randle at this point -- >> i'm at a loss for t-mobile. i figure it should go to somewhere. there's so much competition, so much other things going on. i think at&t should have been able to buy it, t-mobile, it's like worrying about sirius and xm when there's pandora and all this other stuff. so many different things happening. are you there, andrew? what's the name of that stupid for ewe la, begins with an h or something and it worked like 50 years ago to decide if there's so much market and -- >> it still works. >> your dad is an anti-trust lawyer. it's in your genes. >> you want competition. >> you don't want t-mobile to just die. they've got spectrum. we wanted to build out the 99%. 99% of the company covered. >> absolutely right. >> of the country covered. >> and because of t-mobile, and because of sprint, prices have remained lower than they might

ultimately been -- >> you don't know whether they have gone up. >> randle has changed his mind. yeah, it's been good for the consumer. >> look how much your airplane ticket cost to probably go out there. that's not a function of competition. that's a function of the fact that all these airlines are now two or three. >> you think either sprint or t-mobile are going to be here in five years? >> maybe not called t-mobile or sprint, but i imagine they will be, together, but i imagine those two probably will be together. >> they could have done better. at&t could have used that spectrum in a way that wouldn't have been too expensive for everyone. i trust these people. >> no, i'm trusting. i think it would have helped from a technology perspective, not necessarily from a price perspective. and then when you talk about reaching all the people and making it available -- >> you're worried about -- you think netgear tried -- you think network neutrality is going to be a problem.

>> the only reason i believe -- >> long distance problems. >> the only reason i believe in neutrality is because there's no competition for the water that gets 234 your home. there's only one or two providers. premarket. >> an iphone costs $400. it's more powerful than that defense department super computer from 1970 that cost $800 million. it costs $400. does it seem to you that things aren't going to right way in terms of pricing? let it happen. let the markets work, sorkin. >> we will -- >> is there a balcony there i can throw you over? >> oh, boy. >> we can talk to the congressman about that. coming up, making some last minute threats in sochi. we are getting ready for the jobs olympics coming up at 8:30 eastern time. and about an hour from now, we are former fed chairman alan greensp greenspan. he will be our special guest. first, though, as we head to a break, take a look at yesterday's winners and losers. we're back in a moment.

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for a current prospectus visit www.etrade.com/mutualfunds. good morning. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. can you hear that? >> i don't know if you guys can hear that. it's raining. >> it's kind of cool. there's part of the tent where it collects, too, that looks like it's going to blow. anyway, we feel like we're kind of -- >> we're roughing it. >> it's cool. we're in a tent.

it's really raining, but it's going to stop, i'm sure, before -- around like 12 hours, i think. anyway, i'm joe kernen along with becky quick reporting live from davos -- no, ats at pebble beach. somewhere and it's sometime. andrew ross sorkin is our eyes and our back at headquarters this morning. today's top stories, the january nonfarms payroll report. due at 8:30 eastern. polled forecasters say the economy likely added 189,000 jobs last month. many say that -- oh, i love northern california. you know, they need rain really badly. really badly. >> this is good news here. >> anyway, december, remember that number? it threw a chill into everyone's idea about our big growth this year. the surprisingly low count of 74,000 net new jobs may be raised sharply.

the unemployment rate is seen falling to 6.6%, which is confounding to a lot of on people. we're at -- i don't know what the participation rate is. a 40-year low. >> a lot of this you can count. they can say 4 .2 or 0.3 is probably because of the end of the unemployment benefits. they attribute much of it to that, too. >> and most people go into the 62 of not even looking. >> not participating, not even looking, right. and, of course, there was weather blamed for the low number in december. we'll see if that happens in january, too. >> experiencing a lot of that here. average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 0.2%. the futures this morning aren't doing a lot. but, you know, after monday, i feel a lot better about that. i was worried that when things get out of hand. we don't know whether it is over. we set a high water mark december 31st for where -- and we haven't been back since in 2014. but we're about 4% below those

levels and i'm talking about the s&p. andrew. >> okay. you can hear the rain. that's something. >> we can hear it. >> we can hear it. we're in a tent. >> i can tell. it sounds like you're under an umbrella. among the other stories we're following in the paper this morning, former portfolio manager matthew martoma was found guilty of insider trading yesterday afternoon. a federal jury in new york found that he was guilty on all three of the conspiracy and security fraud charges that he faced. the verdict was the eighth insider trading conviction of a current or former employee of steve cohen's sac capital and raised questions about whether prosecutors will eventually go after mr. cohen himself. >> and what a report. 79-0. >> amazing. >> insider trading, it really is. let's get a check on markets as we count down to the all-important jobs report.

we are seeing futures rising a bit on yesterday's gains. joining us, mark vitner. mike hansson, merrill lynch global research. yesterday i was at the new york stock exchange. big rally. dow's best day of the year. traders were talking about optimism on the jobs report. is that justified? >> there's some expectation with the weather story supposedly playing out in december that we get a bounceback. historically, that tends to happen. whether you get basically the jobs replacement. i think there is optimism. the data has been kind of mixed. it's a tough call. >> you get that crazy report. not only do you have the weather, but you have the seasonal adjustment that usually comes with january from december and you had the unemployment benefits which ran out at the end of december. >> that's right. that will affect the unemployment rate. the unemployment rate is even more volatile than usual. everyone who was on employment insurance left, you would have something like 5.8%, 6% unemployment rate. >> do you care about the --

>> well, we should. >> the fed probably does. >> the fed is backing away from focusing on the percentage at this point. >> mark, you've raised your forecasts going into this number. i know you're sort of on the high end of estimates. what's making you more optimistic? >> well, we saw the data in the ism nonmanufacturing survey. the employment component in there was a little bit stronger. and we had a higher number to begin with. i think we go from 185 to 195. we don't think the weather was as much of a factor in january as it was in december. so we're looking for a bounceback. there was a lot of unusual stuff in that december report, just some very odd one off declines in employment categories. >> so does that mean that december gets revised higher? perhaps that will be something to trade on. >> i think it does. we're going to get revisions for the entire year. so we're going to see all of the data revised with this report. so i think the december number will turn out to be somewhere

around 125. it will still be impacted by the weather, but it won't be that horrendous 100,000 number that we had before. >> and the other thing everyone is pointing to, mike, is the survey week is one of the more mild weeks in the month of january. >> that's right. polar vortex missed the week of the survey, yes. >> and i wonder, the revisions to 2013, what are you expecting there? it was a pretty solid month, 180 plus jobs averaged per month. pretty solid year, i think. >> you tend to get upwards revisions in a growing environment, right? i think the risk is to see some up side revisions, as well. >> i wonder what is really the best indicator here. >> i think it's ridiculous. my question is a slightly different one. how much does the obamacare conversation going to come into play with this estimate? >> there's a lot of anecdotalal discussion about obamacare having a big impact. you haven't seen it very much in the data. part-time, unemployment is trending lower. and if you were seeing a big shift from full time to

part-time, you would see average -- >> cbs said earlier this week about the numbers and i just wonder -- >> it was longer term. >> but i wonder whether you're going to see the exact conversation to become part of this. >> it will become part of the discussion, for sure. but i think the hard data support ago fullback because of obamacare is not yet in the numbers. >> what do we have to look for, mark, to see whether it was the weather. i know construction is one category of jobs. how do you break it down? >> well, construction has a couple of things. if you had a snow removal, you might actually see an increase in construction. that would be one thing to look at. there's waste remediation services and things like that. there's a couple components you can look at for the weather. retail can sometimes be tricky. if retailers didn't here as many people for the holiday season, although we did see a big pick up in layoffs. one of the things related to the affordable care act, though, is it seems small businesses feel better about the economy. if you look at the nifb survey,

they put out their employment component ahead of their overall survey. it picked up. our own survey showed a big pick up in hiring intentions. and it seems to me that small businesses, which are a big generator of jobs, have really breathed a sigh of relief since the start of the year that maybe the affordable care act wasn't as bad as they thought it would be. >> we saw that in the adp report. thank you so much for joining once mark and mike. becky, back to you at pebble beach. the jobs number is always a mystery. it sounds like this january report will be even crazier because of the weather & seasonal adjustments and everything else. >> there's going to be a lot of questions, no matter how that number comes out. but, again, we're talking about a number that's coming up in just about two hours' time. so when we come back, we'll talk a little bit more about that. also, let the games begin. we will go live to sochi with an update on all the action leading up to tonight's opening ceremonies. plus, at&t's randle stephenson explained the company's move to denounce

russia's anti-gay policies. more squawk right after this.

welcome back, everybody. there's not a lot of activity at this hour, although the dow futures have turned negative. they're now down about 7.5 below fair value. s&p up by over 1.5 points and the nasdaq futures are up by 10.5. a lot of people are waiting to see what happens with this all important jobs number. that coming out at 8:30 eastern time. at&t is the first major advertiser to open only condemn russia's anti-gay policies. randle stephenson explained why this was an easy call. >> we've always been big supporters of our olympic

athletes, of the olympics in general. we've always also been big starters of equality in all regards. our policies have always been very strong in that regard. and so when you see our athleteses going overseas to compete in an environment that has laws that are discriminatory and it cause uses some concerns, it was very important for us to come out and take a stand on it. >> how long did you spend talking about it, with the conversations at the board level, conversations you were having in your office? >> we didn't talk about it very long. this is a pretty easy call. >> what's the feedback you've gotten to this point? >> it's been positive. >> is there any other statement that you can or would make in russia that you haven't heard from anybody in russia i take it on this? >> no. our statement, i think, stands on its own. it's very clear, i think. >> that is a no-brainer, you know? >> it's just as surprising that other big advertisers have been reluctant to come out and say it and completely straightforward

out there terms. this is what they think about it. >> russia, you know, they got -- i don't know. it's insecretble. crazy over there in general. you read that as just heartfelt. the laws. i think there's still some states here that have some crazy laws on the books. anyway, the opening ceremonies are just hours away. cnbc is there for the entire games and carl. the famous man quintanilla is joining us from sochi with more. >> looking good. >> i don't get to talk to you enough any more, carl. it's good to see you. we all remember -- we tweet once in a while in reference to one another and do a little of that, but you'll never forget how many years has it been? >> you and rovell, too. no one was allowed to see the fireworks because it was on taped delay. and you guys were doing a shot

and they started behind you. that was like us with the rain here. >> we were having -- our discussion was so interesting, there was no point at looking behind us. as i always say, when you go to tv anchor school, they don't teach you to conduct an interview with fireworks going off wind you that you're not supposed to talk about. >> but in general, anything -- they're fireworks, carl. you just have to say, whenever there's fireworks, i think the fireworks win, unfortunately, right? maybe not with rovell. >> absolutely. that's right. you guys mentioned the at&t stuff. it's great to see you both of you and andrew, too. i don't know if you've seen the home gauge of google today which is a rainbow colored series of boxes about the olympics. if you click on it, illustrate takes you to part of the olympic charter that talks about athl e athletes and participatans rights to participate without bias. so you talk about at&t taking a stand, google, this may be one

of the most interesting stands yet. that's obviously the google home page today. you mentioned tonight is the big night, the opening ceremony, the torch, which is bog to be lit over my right shoulder here has now made its way to sochi. it went around the port of sochi today. making its way to an undisclosed location. before the sayceremony tonight. that's a map, 35,000 miles. it had to be resit 44 separate times, including one after putin lit it outside the kremlin. a lot of whispers about who is going to light the cauldron tonight. the ceremony is at 20:14 military time, if you get it, and a couple secrets that came out. a couple secret that's came out from the press conference today with the ceremonies producer, president putin will attend, we're told, and it will include a gay band, a gay russian band

called tattoo. that might be part of russia's response to things like what at&t and google with talking about. >> carl, i have a question for you. have you been showering in your swimsuit? >> no. >> i read a story yesterday -- >> this is funny. >> i read a story yet in the "wall street journal" that suggested they're watching you in your hotel rooms. there was a russian official who made a comment saying yeah, we know some of these people have been turning on the shower, pointing it to the wall and you can wag out for the day. >> yes. some of the officials tried to walk that statement back yesterday. our accommodations are fine, by the way. i know everybody wants to know how is the hotel? we're a lot of lucky. those may be completed first. but although i'm not showering in my bathing suit, beck, i hate to disappoint anyone, you do

think about who may be watching. what can you say, right? it's basically enjoy the view, hope you like it. >> i don't think you're disappointing anyone, carl. >> no. i'm be disappointed if you were in a bathing suit, q. no, who were they thinking would be -- you know, i've got one guy who is probably going to come running out with the torch. >> who? >> putin himself. i'm doing it. >> some people are whispering, you know, the cover of the journal today talks about a defightant russia. what if it's snowden? i'm just throwing it out there. but if you really wanted to sort of twist -- >> oh, come on. >> nobody has any clue. >> that's andrew's true hero. >> i've got my dvr set. i'm waiting to say ed run this

morning. >> what i really want to talk about is that 18-foot birdie on seven which has now gone viral. congratulations. nice shot. >> at that other network that will go unmentioned. but they don't put the bad stuff on. so let's just pretend that that was -- there was a lot of those shots yesterday. >> you had a great shot, too, put on and they caught it. >> luckily. that's a fun hole to have it on. >> joe. >> fun hole to have it on, carl. thank you. >> afterwards you're so calm and collected. like i do that all the time. >> i was in shock. and my wife and kids both said why don't you smile when something good happens like that? make it look like you're having some fun. i'm trying to fool people. be safe, carl. we didn't talk to you about security. it must be everywhere, right? >> there's a lot of security but that's par for the course here.

we'll run you through some of the new toys they have, maybe later in the day. >> well, it's not new for you either. i remember you reminded me of the scud stud, remember? >> that's right, in israel. >> what were those rockets called? you didn't flinch. they were going over your head. you've done this before. >> we'll see you guys soon. >> all right. see you. >> carl, thank you. 7:30 tonight. >> 7:30 tonight on nbc. >> what network. >> nbc. >> awesome. >> and i want to see what carl was talking about. i want to see who lights the torch. >> i thought you were talking about the bathing suit again. >> no, who lights the torch. >> sarah in the studio. aol chief tim armstrong generating controversy right here on "squawk box." it's a great interview. plus, alan greenspan is coming up, 7:30 a.m. eastern time ahead of the monthly jobs report. you don't want to miss it.

welcome back to "squawk box." a lot of buzz about comments from aol ceo tim armstrong. he joned us on "squawk box" yesterday after the company's earnings report. we asked him about changes to aol's 401(k) plan. >> as a ceo and management team we had to decide do we pass the $7.1 million of obamacare cost to our employees or do we try to

eat as much of that as possible and cut other benefits. for employees that are leaving to go to other employers, not matching those program was probably the last thing on the list for us in terms of employee benefits that we wanted to keep. i have a town hall meeting today with all the employees. i'm going to bring this subject up and talk about it. >> now, after he came on "squawk," then came reports of armstrong's comments on an internal conference call related to this issue. he said -- he is said to have blamed part of this change on this 401(k) match in terms of costs associated with what he said was obamacare. the company spent $2 million for two employees with distressed babies. there was a million dollars spent on each. and that that was what he was citing a spokesman gave us a statement about that. before i read the statement, the issue here is instead of matching month by month by month, they're matching at the end of the year.

as a result of that if you're an aol employee and you happen to get fired or leave before the end of the year -- >> he was giving an example. >> of why he was doing it. that's what the costs were. really quick, here's what his statement said, in part, i discussed the increase we and many other companies are seeing in health care cost. i mentioned high-risk pregnancy as one of many examples of how our company supports families when they are in need. we want to be open and transparent about the choices we make and why we are making them. coming up, the countdown to the jobs report. we'll talk expectations and what the number could mean for the markets. we'll get back to pebble beach with joe and beck can i as well. and the big one, alan greenspan. back in a moment. helps you be ready anytime the moment's right. you can be more confident in your ability to be ready. and the same cialis is the only daily ed tablet approved to treat ed and symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently or urgently.

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welcome back to "squawk box," the countdown to the jobs report is on. what the numbers will mean for the markets and the fed's taper plans. who better to talk about the economy than cnbc first 25 contender, alan greenspan. the former fed chief talks to "squawk" at 7:30 a.m. eastern time plus, the founder of sun microsystems, scott mcnealy gets ready to sound off on the future of tech, social media and creating jobs in america. conquer the morning, conquer the day. "squawk box" begins right now. >> good morning and welcome to "squawk box," right here on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin, along with sarah isaac who's in studio this morning. among the guests, randall stephenson, former sun

microchief scott mcnealy, kimberly clark ceo tom faulk and cnbc caremark executive dave do dorman and richard fisher will be here as well. >> we should also say we have the maestro coming up. >> alan greenspan. >> market attention firmly focused on the january employment report. that's coming at 8:30 eastern time. economists expect 189,000 new nonfarm jobs. that's the number to watch with the unemployment rate dropping to 1.6%. we're not sure whether that rate will matter. maybe mr. fisher can enlighten us. we have green arrows after what was a good day with expectations getting higher and higher. we'll see whether they will be met. dow looks like it would open up 5.5 points higher, s&p 500

closer to 3 upons higher and the nasdaq looks like it would open up about 12 points higher. once 8:30 hits, everything could change. >> once it hit 270, ubs was telling us that was a buy signal, maybe things are looking up for the u.s. economy. >> let's get you through some of the other headlines. a little bit of corporate news, apple repurchasing $14 billion, that's a lot, over the past two weeks. it came after apple's weaker than expected earnings report and ceo tim cook gave an interview. he said he was surprised by the subsequent drop in the stock's price. that buy back was part of apple's previously disclosed buy back plan. $14 billion in two weeks. >> short time period. wonder how much that's propped that stock up over the past two weeks. >> and insurer cigna, reported

quarterly profit of $1.39 per share, 10 cents short of estimates. its outlook falls short of street consensus, cigna saying the cost in its private medicare business have been higher than expected. >> joining us now to talk about jobs and everything else that's going on in the market, joshua fineman. he is the chief global economist at deutsch asset and wealth management in new york. here on the set, managing partner and chief investment strategist at strategist assets. >> joe has been making fun of me for seven years. why should it be different. >> let's talk jobs. do you have a number in mind. >> our chief economist is using 175 and 6.8 on the unemployment rate. >> which do you actually care about. >> i care more about the nonfarm payroll numbers. >> does the fed care about the

rate? >> we'll see this with miss yellen who she nuances this. the question is do you want the victory on the number or the victory in actually solving the problem of structural unemployment. i believe she believes we have a structural employment problem in the united states. i think she's right. it will be interesting. >> josh, ahead of the number, explain what you think is going on in the markets right now. >> i think markets have been concerned that recent data flow out of the u.s. has been softer, starting with last month's jobs report. i think this morning's number, hopefully will allay some of the fears. there are a couple issues about it, one is still the weather. in the survey week was actually decent week for weather but right around that we had pretty bad weather. so that could affect the numbers. the other thing is, the expiration of the extended unemployment program. has the potential to affect the unemployment rate. i agree the unemployment rate has been har to read and probably less important.

i think it's exaggerating the extent of improvement in the economy. i think this adds another layer of uncertainty. >> what's the chance that everybody has overreacted these past two weeks? >> i think there's a good chance of that, frankly. i think the weather has made things harder to read. we probably borrowed growth from earlier this year. i think the fundamentals in the economy are improving. >> it's not just the u.s., josh. they've been worried about emerging markets, china, possibility of deflation in europe. the list goes on. >> there are other things to worry about, no question. emerging markets have vexed the markets recently. that's probably not going to go away completely. i don't think that will turn into a full-blown crisis, the kind of thing that could blow back on to the u.s. in a major way. the activity will be driven more by the fundamentals here. hopefully we'll start to see that, maybe not right away but gradually over the coming months. >> the s&p 500 down 4% or so for the year thanks to yesterday's

rally. does it make you rethink the direction of this market for 2014. >> no. it really doesn't. the best leading indicators are corporate profits. the corporate profits look like they'll be up 9%. i think there's pentup demand for capital spending. as you pointed out broadly, monetary policy, at least in the developed world will remain quite accommodative. i'm not particularly worried. i think this is a pause that refreshes. you're not going to get the type of multiple expansion you got last year. that's 80% of the move last year was multiple expansion, only 6. a lot less. >> let me ask you one question. what happens if the number comes in at 100,000? let's even suggest it's weather related. some people have suggested you're not going to get a real number that's clear of weather until sometime in march. >> i will say, i found just being out talking to institutional investors, people are of the view that fed tapering is something you can set your watch to, that it's just going to be -- >> they're not going to change

it. >> it will be linear every meeting. i think the surprise, just in my life and the markets, very few things are linear. i think -- we'll see with janet yellen but i think if she's going to make a mistake, she's going to make a mistake on easing. >> you don't think a terrible number would at least make them rethink the taper. >> i think it would. my point is, this may not be, again, as linears apeople think. there may be a meeting where they skip it. we'll see. >> jason, thank you for being here. >> thank you. >> we'll see whether the numbers turn out to be correct. >> that comes at 8:30 a.m. our jobs still to come this morning. we have special guests to talk about it ahead of the numbers. former federal reserve chairman alan greenspan himself, his take on what today's employment numbers mean for the taper, for the broader economy. later, market permable. jeremy siegel, he's bullish, he says dow 18,000.

he'll be hear to tell us whether the data could give stocks the boost they need. coming up, we tee off on the economy, washington and silicon valley with guest host scott mcnealy. he joins joe and becky live from pebble beach. right after the break.

our guest host this morning, tech visionary, scott mcnealy, co-founder of weigh in, which is an innovative social platform. we love having you on. i love, you know, when we talk politics and stuff. i enjoy that. watching you last night, we had a panel on technology and i don't understand everything you're saying but you really are a tech visionary. i just want to know, my first question is, you're going through college. what was your pager? you said there was no computer science major back then. what was your major. >> captain of the harvard golf team which was my primary focus, sort of like being the florida state snow ski captain. i majored in economics and wrote an honors thesis on antitrust. >> you don't know how to write code. >> i don't write code. i never have. >> you're not an engineer. >> i'm not an engineer, no. >> you understand technology and where we're headed so well after

listening to you last night, i don't know how you do that. it must be from reading. >> i lived through a lot of product cycles. the product life cycles in technology are very short. technology has the shelf life of a banana, especially in the hardware space. every 18 months at sun we had to redo our entire product line. we couldn't launch new coke, decide a couple years later it wasn't working and relaunch old coke. nobody wants a 15-year-old pc. >> are we allowed to talk about who was there. >> that's off the record. >> there were really smart guys there. the one thing that struck me, i like talking about 25 years. just really, i guess that's science fiction. because nobody knows. we have no idea. you guys are uncomfortable at the five-year mark. at two and three years from now, given what's happened in the last two or three years, it's even hard to do two or three

years. >> it really is. it's hard to know what's going to happen. >> or when it's going to happen. >> we have the flip phone, now it's the smartphone. >> someone tweeted the second back to the future. why didn't they know everyone would be walking around like this? because no one had a smartphone in back to the future. we didn't know that. >> so at sun we talked about the internet of things and actually came out with a lot of -- >> tell me what is the internet of things. >> the internet of people are people getting on the web. the internet of things are the sensors and machines. >> that will be on something similar to the internet. >> i don't want all my stuff on the internet. i don't want all my stuff taking care of things automatically. when i pull the last diet coke out of my refrigerator -- >> that's a sensor. >> somebody sends me diet coke and it just shows up at my door step knowing. i didn't have to get on the internet and order it. my refrigerator knew it was out and ordered it.

that's when the internet of things is happening. >> it will send you more lipitor if your blood pressure changes. >> exactly. a long time ago, was on the cover of "fortune" wearing a java ring. the whole idea is that you'll wear your computers. we were way early on that one. we actually did google glass with heads up display, computer displays and i'm not so sure larry ellison doesn't own patents that he doesn't know about -- >> from buying us. >> from buying us. he probably should look through his portfolio and talk to google about that one. who knows. i don't remember. we did that 15, 20 years ago. we said network is the computer which is now called cloud. >> it seems real now, though. it seems like it's on the verge of things that not only for your home that can help you but for your body that help you and for health. >> it really is. it really is. then that creates the creepy

security issue. how much does who know about me? >> yes, but then that's another thing we talked about last night. there's so much damn data, it gets to the point there's so much no one really is watching because they can't watch and what you're doing is not that interesting. i can't speak for you. what i'm doing is not that interesting, i'll tell you that much. >> really interesting app is, i think spectacular with uber. it's not just hail a cab. it's a powerful app that tells you what the new technology can do. it doesn't just change the cab industry. it also changes logistics. you think about what could be the impact on fedex or u.p.s. or whatever if all of a sudden we can hail a messenger, a bike messenger or whatever, that simply. it's going to change everything. it also now takes the anonymity of hopping in a cab and going somewhere totally out. because uber knows exactly where

i was picked up, when and where i went and where i was dropped off. >> i can think of a new york governor that would have been in all kinds of problems before it even came out. >> absolutely. i only go to those places with my wife so i'm not in trouble, right? >> your point is privacy, something you weren't concerned about 15 years ago, now you are. >> i was concerned about it but i wasn't terrified by it. my most famous quote ever is you have no privacy, get over it. i'm not really worried if coca-cola knows what i'm doing or even google knows what i'm doing. but when my health care provider, the government knows what i'm doing or how i'm feeling or whatever, if they know where i'm spending my time, what organizations i'm -- conservative organizations i'm supporting. >> what you said on "squawk box" in the past? you are not that far from that at this point.

do you get audited? >> absolutely. >> within rightly so with the stuff you say on here. we're going to get you. >> so far, having gotten audited, the only problem they founded is that a won a raffle at a charity event and it was worth $3,000 of nothing we exercised and used. it was an overnature in milpedes, california or some terrible place like that. sorry, milpedes. >> my wife didn't realize we needed to submit that as income to us. they audited us and holy mackerel, it was terrible. about $12,000 worth of accounting fees. i'll never do another charity raffle again for as long as i live. >> we'll get you on apple, a bunch of stuff, google, microsoft and obamacare maybe at some point. or just the euro entitlement

state. >> stay healthy. >> scott is with us for the rest of the hour. we'll talk more with him. also, other things are coming up from pebble beach, including at&t's chief executive and chairman, randall stephenson's take on the nsa surveillance controversy. it's jobs friday. no one understands the jobs picture better than alan greenspan. the former fed chairman will join us live at 7:30 eastern. stick around. we'll be right back. time now for today's aflac trivia question. athletes from which south asian country won be waving a flag during tonight's opening ceremony? ♪ yeah, he's clean, boss. now listen to me, duck. i have an associate that met with, uh, an unfortunate accident. while he's been incapacitated, somebody's been paying him cash. now, is this your doing? aflac? now, if i met with some such accident,

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optionsxpress. open an account today and get a $150 amazon.com gift card when you call 1-888-280-0154 now. optionsxpress by charles schwab. athletes from which south asian country won't be waving a flag during tonight's opening ceremo ceremony? the answer, india. because of the india olympic association's pending criminal charges. the nsa scannedle is something that's had global

implications for a lot of different industries but also the telecom industry. we got the chance to sit down with at&t's chairman and ceo randall stephenson and asked him if other governments are having a negative reaction, if it's impacted his company in terms of what they're doing and what the implications are overseas? listen in. >> i think there is a desire for the united states to clarify the -- the government to clarify the policies and positions in this regard. i think the president made a first run at that with the speech he made the week before davos, actually. i think that's a good beginning and the president has articulated that more is to come and so i think right now from our standpoint, we don't see negative reaction from governments per se. >> have there been negative reactions from citizens, either in this country or other countries? >> from citizens, there have been competitive impacts overseas. >> there have been? >> yes. we've had legitimate competitive

losses as a result of this where companies have made some decisions based on this. and it's one area we think is important to bring clarity to this situation, what is being done and what is not being done. we think that's very important. >> can you talk specifically about what some of those are. >> i can't talk about specific companies or countries but i'll tell you, we've had impacts. >> when you say it's important to clarify, you just need the government to come out and say what was happening and what wasn't to be more clear about it, so it's not the leaks that are driving the news cycle? >> the government will have to disconcern what's the best way for them to deal with this. one thing they have done that will be very helpful is they've given telecom companies and internet service providers freedom to give out information on how many data requests have been dealt with related to these matters. you'll be seeing some of that information come out.

that will help people understand the imaginenymagnitudes we're t about here. >> that implies that it was a much smaller number than the public has the perception at this point. >> i don't know exactly what the public perception is. my guess is, it will probably be smaller than people expect. but i'm guessing right now. >> i've talked to some people here, other ceos and their perspective on it. some of them who are in positions who would know, you have to understand the lu, they're not listening to every person's conversation. we're not recording every person's conversation. if there's one degree of separation that they can tie you to a concerning cell phone number they could go and make the request to be able to do that. a court would have to sign off on it. this is not listening to every everybody all the time and taping every conversation. >> there's an element of what you said that is important for people to understand. anytime there is a request for

the type of information we're discussing, all three branches of government are involved. it's getting extensive oversight. it's obviously getting executive branch oversight. it obviously has been approved by congress and is getting oversight from congress and then it's going to the courts and the fisa courts are reviewing it. you're having the judiciary, all branches involved. >> quick reaction. your thoughts on what's happened with the nsa? >> i think randall says it very, very well. we need to know what they're doing and we need to ensure that there is oversight and that there isn't one single branch or one single bureaucrat or one single elected official who is out working this. i think it makes everybody nervous when you see things like the ap reporter scandal or you see something like the irs scandal. i mean, i go back to watergate. and that's peanuts compared to

what it feels like is going on in terms of stuff happening and lack of transparency. and the other thing that's peanuts back then compared to now is how much more the government is in our lives. coming up, talk to scott some more but also, former fed chairman alan greenspan talks jobs, the economy and the taper. much, much more coming on "squawk." their quick trade bar lets my account follow me online so i can react in real-time. plus, my local scottrade office is there to help. because they know i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. i'm with scottrade. (announcer) ranked highest in investor satisfaction with self-directed services by j.d. power and associates.

welcome back to "squawk box." we are just an hour away from the widely anticipated january jobs report. just a reminder, economists are look for 189,000 new nonform payrolls for last month with the unemployment rate dropping to 6.6%. we'll also be looking for any revisions to december's anticipated 74,000 new jobs. we want to check futures ahead of the jobs report. looks like they're pointing to a higher start. dow futures up a little over 17 points. this will all completely change. we're coming off of a strong rally yesterday.

in corporate earnings, moody's reporting fourth quarter profit of 85 cents per share, beating estimates by 9 cents. revenue also topped estimates as the ratings agencies 2014 forecasted as well. apollo global management beating on the top and bottom line, earning 3 cents per share, 11 cents above estimates. chairmanen leon black calling 2013 a, quote, exceptional year, giving an optimistic forecast for 2014 as well. those forecast have been all over the map. >> cnbc continues its series of where the jobs are. many companies are having trouble filling the jobs that are available. we find mary thompson in chicago, illinois. mary? >> good morning, andrew. freedman seating is 120 years old. you know what, these days it's growing like an adolescent. in each of the last ten years

it's averaged double digit growth and the president's company, craig fredman is expecting 2014 will be its best year ever. >> in the old days we were making the seats for the trucks, one or two seats per truck. when you can make multiple seats for a vehicle like we are now, it propelled our business. >> to me, demand for its seats, freedman hired 100 workers, bringing its payrolls to 600. 10 to 12 jobs are open now and another 15 to 20 are expected to be added by year end. like a lot of manufacturers, it can't find the welders and workers trained to operate the computer guided machine and other high-tech equipment found at most manufacturers these days. it's a common problem. a survey shows the skilled worker shortage is slowing expansion for 74% of u.s. manufacturers. though friedman says the labor shortage is hurting its bottom line more than its ability to grow.

>> we have to use a lot of overtime to get the work done. we have to outsource a fair amount of work that we don't have the capacity to do because we don't have the skilled labor to do it. >> even if friedman finds the skilled workers, hiring and retanning them can be difficult. there are bidding wars as other manufacturers in chicagoland wand to hire them, too. to fill its skilled labor gap, he's taking a two-pronged approach, first working closely with an organization retraining adults in modern manufacturing skills and second, hiring from a local high school, working closely with businesses to train students for jobs that are out there. i'll have the second part of the story in "power lunch." >> it's a great story. also a great transition to our next guest. we're trying to understand the employment market. our next guest was at the helm of the federal reserve for the last 20 years. he now advises some of the most

powerful institutions in the economy. he's a cnbc 25 contender. alan greenspan, former federal chairman and head of greenspan and associates. i don't know if you had a chance to listen to mary's report. i want a big picture on the employment picture this morning. 189,000 is the number. we can get into the number if you want. looking at this report this morning, from breaking views that said if we went back to 2006, mr. chairman, and looked at the work force involvement, the unemployment rate in this country today would actually be much closer to 11% and that we would have about 8 million more job seekers. given that, where are we 5 1/2 years after the financial crisis? >> well, i think that's a reasonably good description of what the problem is, but it's a little bit exaggerated. you're looking at an issue, really, of the working age

population and employment. and the ratio of employment to the working age population has barely changed in recent years. a goodly part of that, however, are the opening -- the opening surge that is occurring in baby boomer retirements. so that's something to be expected. nonetheless, there is no doubt that there is a very considerable number of people who are on the disabled list. just the number of people who no longer can find work. this is a very distorted labor market, one i've never seen before in this context. and you know, it suggests to me, including the context of the previous discussion with craig friedman, the issue here is skills. and one of the things that we are missing in this particular

work structure is a very large imbalance between skills. i've argued strenuously for revising our h1b immigration quotas, because there is a huge number of people outside our borders who would love to come here. in fact, many of them come here, get well educated and then are required to leave. we can fill in the gaps that are appearing and are causing severe problems in our labor market if we would address this issue. i think it is one of the more distorted issues i know. i might say, as i often say with respect to this issue, this is a factor in income inequality. if you brought in a lot of people, especially in this high skilled level, they would compete with all the people that have been guests on your program, myself included, and would bring our wage levels

down. >> dr. greenspan, do you have any real hope in any meaningful way over the next 12 or 18 months we will have immigration reform and you've seen what john boehner said this week. he doesn't have this. "the wall street journal" going after both democrats in this case and republicans, which makes you think that if you have both sides so far apart, it's almost impossible to get there. >> it strikes me sort of absurd. it's a no brainer. we have a very serious economic problem. we have a very serious structural problem with respect to skills and we can solve them both with a simple act, which isn't all that significant. it's merely fundamentally changing the very minor allowance of the skilled work force into the united states. we've got to stop that. >> joe kernen is out at pebble beach. he has a question for you.

joe? >> thanks, andrew. >> good morning, joe, i understand you did pretty well yesterday. >> thank god that one -- you know what, mr. chairman, i'm going to live on that putt for a while, at least until next year and hopefully we'll be back. whenever i get the privilege to talk to you, i love to bring up, you know, where we are in terms of five years into what has been a subpar recovery. and the debate still rages about whether the nature of the recession that we had since it wasn't an overheating and hyperinflation and then causing the fed to raise rates, it was a sort of a debt bubble. because of the differences that we shouldn't be expecting much better than we're getting here. that makes me sad that 1.5% or 2% is all we're entitled to. is there any remedy for it at this point? and what do you think is really

causing it? >> well, first, as i've said before, you have to look at the gross domestic product and ask where the problem is. where is the short fall? i like to evaluate the gdp in a way that is not usually done, namely to restructure it in terms of the durability of what is being produced in goods and services. software is three to five years. corporate structures, maybe 30, 40 years. haircuts, one month. what the data show are that the -- almost all of the shortfall, where we'd expect growth to be occurring occurs in assets with life expectancies or duration of more than 20 years. and the question is, why is that happening? and i think dig into the data, it becomes fairly clear.

i think that the best way of looking at a problem like this is to ask yourself, who are making the decisions that lead us to such a shortfall? the nonresidential structures area and residential structures, which are the two basic numbers which i really look at in this context. these are long lived assets in the economy. both have come down and are stuck well below normal. and the question is, why not? in the corporate sector, what we see and have been seeing for the last number of quarters is the ratio of capital investment to corporate cash flow, which measures the extent to which corporate managers are willing to take their liquid cash flow and put it into illiquid long-term investments. they choose to do that and they will only do that if they are

confident about what's going on in the future. so that what i see in the corporate sector is very clearly an issue of a major shortfall in the issue of what some people call confidence. whatever you want to call it, clearly people are looking out in the distant future and they are saying that it is too complex and, in fact, how can we possibly know, for example, what the tax rate's going to be 30 years from now. >> doctor, given that, we saw the stock market go for a nice run 2013. what's your take of what's happened now and given some of the concerns around a global slowdown, more broadly just here and then, obviously, in europe and asia. >> let's remember that over the long term, there's been a remarkable, stable growth rate in the stock market. it's close to 7% a year.

we're talking now about, well, we're going to record highs. well, that's not very impressive when you've had five or six years of zero net, zero growth in stock prices. they've lost all of that. the issue here is that the thing i tend to look at most in the market, which frankly is the critically positive force, potentially going at the moment, is the extent to which the market of so-called equity premiums which measure the extent to which the market requires the rate of return on equity, even though that has come down a significant amount obviously in the extraordinary rally from last year, from the bottom and before then, we're still below average. in other words, stocks in a long-term sense are still undervalued by any objective measure. so that's a potential positive force, if we can open it up, but

there is so much in the way as the data showed, that is suppressing the market, which is essentially from data i looked at and indeed i showed it in the book i've just written. it's two major forces which are driving us here. one is the so-called cyclically deficit, which is draining private savings, which is a major problem. it shows it strongly in the statistics as a cause of this problem and the second is a very unusual issue, which is the spread between the 30-year treasury and the 5-year treasury note. that is a measure of a degree of long term, very long term lack of confidence. that spread is at the widest level in american history. that to me, tells me a great

deal. there's where the problem is. that's what's got to be solved. >> okay. dr. greenspan, thank you for your insight this morning. very helpful, a little anxiety producing but we appreciate seeing you and we'd like to have you back very soon. >> thank you. >> becky? >> andrew, thank you. we have a special fed guest that's coming up in the next hour. another special fed guest, dallas fed president richard fisher will be joining us to talk about before and after the jobs report. we'll get his take on what's happening, whether the jobs numbers are a real reflection of the economy. up next, getting generation y on the golf course. that's the challenge for our next guest. coming up, dick sullivan. good news. i got a new title.

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golf has a bit of a problem, losing young people 18 to 34 year olds. dick sullivan is the ceo of the pga tour superstore and one of the other things, thank you for joining us, appreciate it. another thing we talked about is that book, "alone together"? i love social media. it allows everyone to sit at

home on their computer and facebook and not meet any of their friends and when they are with people at starbucks or at a bar they're not listening to their friends. they're on their stupid smartphones. all these young people are not playing golf. >> the whole world has changed. certainly as you said, we've seen a decline. we've seen more beginners come into the game in the last 24 months. our world is all about making equipment better and hopefully teaching the youngsters of america. we have a lot of programs that we're working on between 6 and 17, that age group. the 18 to 34 has dropped off. the 6 to 17 is what we have to focus on. >> there are great commercials showing kids learning about never improving your lie, you could be out there alone and you still can't bend the rules. it's one of the oldest games around. it should stan for itself.

you do need to bring it into the current -- >> we want to keep tradition. i get what you're saying. >> do you need to do all these things, make balls that don't hook or slice? >> there's a big initiative that was launched just last month at the pga show, the ceo of taylor made rallied everybody together, saying how do we fix this game? it has declined. >> it's hard. it's hard. >> it's embarrassing. it's humiliating. >> opening ceremonies tonight, think about juan claude kili. think about how snowboarding has brought back the industry of skiing. we just need to bring some fun back into the game. >> i don't want to do snowboarding in golf. >> we could play a different game. faster, make it easier.

>> you've thought about this. >> i tried to drive this exact same initiative, we called it l flogton, which is not golf backwards. what can you do on a government course? usga rules. we wanted to create rules to make it not so hard. if you lost your ball, you just hit another one. >> wooden bats versus the aluminum bats. >> you're white belt and you eventually graduate to black belt. we wanted to put a time limit on it. just saying while we're young, nobody's going to get it done. nobody has the time. >> it's time, difficulty and expense. those are the three barriers

into the game. we need to make it easy and faster. >> weather, in terms of total rounds last year, that had something to do with it. >> it was the worst in 20 years if you can believe it. it went back, as far back as we could. even during the recessionary years, seven or eight. i don't want to say it's discretionary. >> i think every parent ought to have their kids play because it teaches -- >> i agree. >> personal responsibility. >> personal responsibility is out right now, my friend. >> you call penalties on yourself in the sport of golf. >> there's nobody to blame. because it wasn't you played a better opponent. it's you versus the course. >> it's the sun, the wind. >> personal responsibility. and we also have to be fair. we have handicaps. >> did you get a stroke on 7 yesterday? >> i did not get a stroke on 7. >> i saw that putt. pgatour.com. you were the hero.

>> the shot of the day. >> there's tens of dozens of views on it already. it's viral. >> thank you. within we come back, a squawk lightning round, cnbc first 25 contender scott mcnealy on apple, microsoft, health care and anything else we can jam in. stick around, we'll be right back. let's say you pay your guy around 2 percent to manage your money. that's not much, you think except it's 2 percent every year. go to e*trade and find out how much our advice and guidance costs. spoiler alert. it's low. it's guidance on your terms not ours. e*trade. less for us, more for you. cozy or cool "meow" or "woof"? exactly the way you want it ... until boom! your mattress a battleground of thwarted desire. enter the sleep number bed. an innovative design that lets couples sleep together in individualized comfort. he's the softy: his sleep number setting is 35.

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scott mcnealy is the co-founder and former ceo of sun microsystems.

he's also the co-founder of weigh in and he's on our list of contenders for the cnbc 25. let's try and run through a lot of things that are happening right now. you are incredibly involved in social media twitter's had a very rough week. how do you look at the stock's disappointment this week? how do you read into that? >> weigh in would love to have that kind of rough week. any company that has -- >> weigh in is your company. >> we bring the media conversation to your own websites aopposed to having to go to facebook, instagram, twitter and the others. >> for cnbc, not an individual. >> you can do it if you're a celebrity, for an individual. >> you work with tv shows, too. >> on air and in venue. the broncos had us on the big screen. we worked with mark cuban. >> seahawks didn't have you on

the big screen. >> we wanted an all weigh in super bowl but didn't get there. if you see me on twitter, you can see the instances where we use this. best buy used us at christmas and they had the top ten trending environments. you'd click on gifts. if you didn't know what to buy, you could click on what's trending and could see the media traffic around that particular camera, what people are saying. they got 24% click-through rates because it was much more credible to have the social media conversation behind the recommendation. >> you don't worry about twitter? >> i think twitter is right on. >> could you monetize it? >> we're talking about making the social media conversation relevant and useful for enterprises. we love twitter. we love facebook. we love all of the social media conversations. that's real, unfiltered -- some of it is gamed but most of it is real. it's kind of the wisdom of the crowds being brought tout

brands. and brands are loving now that they finally see a way to use social media to their advantage. >> it is a slice of the population, though. i saw research from pugh that suggested that less than 20% of the adult population is on twitter. of them only maybe a third or more of them are checking in frequently? >> i've got buys 12, 14, 16 and 18. the emerging new and future big buck folks, they are all online. they're all tweeting. >> is apple a dividend stock like p & g now? >> i think apple is facing a very, very interesting challenge from android. and android is gaining share. i like open. i believe open wins, because it's mankind -- it's not mankind versus apple as it was mankind versus microsoft in my era. i think it's always tough to battle and gain share when

you've got this openness coming after you. >> google will run the world, i guess. >> they'll do no evil. it's cool. >> be another google? >> there will be another google. >> how is that possible? >> there will always be something. look how fast facebook came upon us and how fast twitter happened. there will always be a new, bigger deal. >> what will they do? >> if i knew, i wouldn't be here. >> i want to go out 2040. i want to download my brain on to a grid. >> if i just thought about doing spreadsheets a long time ago. seems so simple. if i thought about what google did which is to auction off every word in the english language every day to the highest bidder. page rank searching. it's a simple idea. >> what do you think is the biggest innovation or someone who should be on the list of the top 25 contributors when it comes to technology.

>> besides me. >> besides you. >> the one that's not on list. i look at some of them, i think, innovation, are you kidding me? the guy who is the most underappreciated, he ought to be right there with steve jobs, they should be one and two. this guy should be number two, andy bechtelheim. he did arista. he's done more startups and technology and equipment that runs in the back room that does all your e-mail, web pages, all the rest of it, that guy has driven more internet traffic, commerce, analysis, whatever and and nobody knows about him. he's a nice, quiet guy. what steve jobs was to retail consumer fashion computing, is he to industrial, commercial -- >> the real stuff. >> tell us the ones you snickered at. >> i wouldn't do that. >> give us one. >> i'd have to look at the list. >> you snickered at three or four of them. >> i don't remember who is on the list.

i'll tweet -- >> really? >> tweet a really. because they're on the list? we don't want to put them on the 25 then. they only made the 200. >> i'll check the 25. >> don't let us put -- >> that's a little snarky. >> far be it for you or this show to ever be snarky. >> it's been a pleasure having you here. we really appreciate your take. >> where are you, spy glass? >> one round, second prize is two rounds at spy glass, right. >> go low, buddy. >> every hole is uphill. it's physically impossible. they have two par 3s that go downhill. all the par 4s are 480 uphill. >> you helped my game by getting me up athe 3:15 california time. >> it worked for bill murray a few years ago. >> they didn't give me a bill murray handicap. >> cinderella boy. >> we will be watching. the countdown to the jobs report, our newsmaker of the

hour, richard fisher. he'll be joining us live when "squawk box" comes right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box," right here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm andrew ross sorkin. joe and becky are reporting live there pebble beach. we'll get to them in just a moment. their special guest this jobs friday, dallas fed president richard fisher. an honor, pleasure. >> it's a treat. >> to have somebody like that on a day like today. first, let's talk a little bit of market expectations. home forecasters say the economy likely added 189,000 jobs last month. that is the number two beat. many also say december surprisingly low count of 74,000 net new jobs may also be raised sharply. that's what everybody is hoping for. the unemployment rate seen falling to 6.6%, average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 0.2%. economists say the big wild card in all of this is the weather. and the winter's relentless freezing temperatures across much of the country ahead of

this 8:30 eastern report which we will bring you live. u.s. equity futures are up. dow looks like it would open up about 25 points, the s&p up 5 and the nasdaq up 14 points in hopes that this all works out. we will see. building on yesterday's rally, which was strong going into this jobs day friday, it's time for our panel, jeremy siegel, mark zandi, kevin hassett and austan goolsbee. pleasure to have you all. the power panel on jobs day friday. austan, everybody has different models. you take kevin's number and subtract a few thousand. >> he's always wrong. i have to understate him. what you have here is kevin has been right that the economy has

been speeding up a bit, but i think this bit with the weather is a more serious factor, even than a lot of people have been anticipating. so that's why i think it's going to be on the negative side. >> we're going to get to kevin and some of the numbers in a bit. jeremy, want to bring you in here on the markets, it really that we've seen. are you predicting 18,000 for the dow? are you still holding to your bullish guns despite the volatility we've seen. >> it's worked in the past. you know, this is still a correction mode. no market moves up in a straight line. there was everyone was on the bullish side at the end of last year. it was a crowded trade. this shakes off some of the excess bulls there. i don't think this changes the long run picture, even long run earnings are the same, long run gdp are the same. i don't see any substantial change in the forecast for the real economy. so i'm sticking to 18,000 for the dow for the end of the year.

it never gets there in a straight line. >> what if we see a bad number today and it would cause you to rethink the outlook for the u.s.? maybe not. you just blame it on the weather. >> there's been talk that the weather, the week they did the survey wasn't bad. if weather is bad, construction does go down, there's a big wild card here. i've never seen so much anticipation for the revision of december's number as i do this year. one thing is true. if the data really gets bad, the fed will slow down or maybe even suspend the tapering operation. and everyone will be looking towards that. you know, in a way we do have an offset, if suddenly the economy does sink downward. and i think that that's positive and supportive in the long run for the market. >> i want to ask the rest of the panel if everybody agrees with jeremy on that particular issue. we heard in the last hour you could set your clock on the taper and it's going to keep

going month by month by month by month and this can't stop. kevin, you agree with that? >> right. the way i think about it is, the fed can't change its policy now unless something really radical happens. because of that, i think we'll be in that rare space where good news is good news and bad news is bad news for a little while. >> bad news is bad news for the markets. do you agree? do you think a number could be so bad that it would cause the fed to rethink the amount or when it tapers? >> i doubt it. i have to say, i'm glad i'm not in austin's formula. it makes me feel good that i'm not there. >> you're in most other people's -- >> i think the bar is high. >> i think austan, kevin is right, that the bar is awfully high for the fed to change its tapering policy. they've got a script, i think they want to stick to it. it would have to be a series of bad numbers, i think, before they change policy. the other thing to recognize is

there's one more employment report before the next fed meeting. even if this one is bad, we'll get another number and see how that looks. i think austan is right. i think the weather is creating havoc. we have big benchmark revisions. it happens once a year. that can change the numbers. of course, the emergency unemployment insurance program expired in january. that's could potentially affect labor force and unemployment. the volatility in the data is not only going to be in payrolls but unemployment. >> you may start seeing an even bigger divergence between the two surveys. because now on the unemployment rate is going to get influenced as mark said, by this change to the unemployment benefits was going to affect long-term unemployed. then you've seen all of this discussion about health care, labor force participation. i actually think the fed might be looking at those aspects,

labor force participation and things like that even more than just what the headline jobs numbers are today. >> kevin, i'll ask you this. the broader context here going into this jobs report for the economy, it's been sort of iffy. perhaps it's the weather. durable goods disappointed, the ism manufacturing disappointed. is this something to worry about, perhaps a softer patch coming off of the momentum at the end of 2013 for the economy? >> right. that's why today's such a big day. because i think that we were talking, even mark and austan were saying kevin's been right. for a minute i thought it might be the power of the hypnotic aei logo behind me. i was optimistic last year for a lot of these shows then we had a big negative surprise. fortunately it was on a day you didn't ask numbers ahead of time. i was at 200 or something. there's a lot of weak data. there is softening going on. the ui benefit, just to reiterate, a lot of people are

probably going out of the labor force. that means that the unemployment rate pretty much has to drop more than expected today. but also some more people are going to get jobs. folks often when they lose benefits will take a job they don't really like. you have to take a job way below your talent level and you're reluctant to do that while you have benefits. when the benefits are gone you tend to do that. >> clearly no the just the headline, how many jobs were created and the unemployment rate, there are so many other gems traders focus on in this report. what else will you be watching? >> you watch the hours worked. thattive goods you a better idea of what's going on in gdp. we hope earnings, hourly earnings begins to rise. that's barely been above inflation over the last 12 months. let me say, i agree with the panel. this one figure will not change the tapering decision. it will take a number of figures. there's another jobs report. and what goes on in the emerging market world, the rest of the

world. this one report won't change the fed, but it will add to their inventory of data for their decision making in the important march, meaning the first one of janet yellen. >> when the bad weather finally subsides. good to see you, austan, mark and kevin will be back for instant reaction after the jobs report. just getting started. we have three major newsmakers ready to talk about jobs in the economy. richard fisher, kimberly clark c ceo, tom falk and dave dorman. coming back in just a moment. there's a saying around here,

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welcome back to "squawk box," everyone. the countdown is on. we are awaiting the jobs number be with the jobs report. in the meantime, the futures have picked up a little bit of steam. the dow jones futures are up by just over 29, the s&p up by just over 5 points and the nasdaq up just over 15 points. we are just a short while from getting the january jobs numbers. our next guests have their fingers on the pulse of hiring and the consumer. joining us right now to talk is

tom falk, ceo of kimberly clark. and also with us is richard fisher. he's head of the fed in dallas. >> good morning, beck did i. >> based on what you know about the consumer and the economy, wa do you expect to see from this number? is it going to be in line with expectations or do you think there could be weakness from the weather? richard? >> let's start with the real operator. >> tom. >> the consumer is still going sideways. you're not seeing big changes in the birth rate. you're not seeing big changes in category demand. so we had a solid fourth quarter in the u.s. the diaper category continued to grow reasonably for us, which is a bit of an uptick from where it's been. we'd say it's going to be slow and steady growth going forward, nothing out of the ordinary. >> a growth in the typer arina, is that because people are willing to spend more for the

diapers? >> the universal insight is mom wants the best for her baby. buying a few more baby wipes or buying some of those more upscale products is what she's thinking about. >> and richard, you talk -- >> we're going to broaden from diapers. >> yes. >> you want to go into depen now? >> that's for joe. >> sorry, joe. >> don't look at me. i'm not the oldest one here. >> you might be, both of them. >> you talked to tom and you talk to a lot of different business leaders. you have a good idea -- >> tom told you that, i never told you that. yes, he's one of the people i talked to, along with 35 other ceos from around the country. the answer to your question is literally, the consumer has been frezen in december and january. three of the four siene ses distri -- census districts in the united states have been under ice or snow. to me whether the number holds back is significantly affected by weather in these two months.

december doesn't have as much weight by the way in the fourth quarter gdp calculations. january will have a significant weight. we'll have to take that into account. monetary policy offset is mother nature. >> it's been a lousy start to february in a lot of places in the country, too. >> we had a big rush at the end of december. big numbers on the order of 15%. we've seen the numbers. there was a big rush in there. things always slow down at the beginning of the year. we'll have to see. the weather has been lousy. >> if we hget a bad number you'e convinced it's because the weather. >> we have to think through how the weather has impacted this. the real question is momentum and the economy. you'll have a step back every now and then. we'll have to see. >> what would it take for a pause in tapering? it would take something in your mind, i would imagine, for you to vote that way, it would take something really away from the standard deviation away from

what could be considered normal variability would have to be huge for you continuing along this course. >> i think we're on the right course. the sign is right. i wanted to do more the first time. i was happy with the administration vote we have. i believe we need to continue this process. the efficacy of it, the effect of it is wearing very, very thin. we've gone from a $2 trillion balance sheet, the markets rallied to well over 4 trillion now. the question is what's enough? it's there. we have to get the consumer and businesses like tom to use it. >> when you see the ten year -- >> 271 this morning. >> remember, the first head fake that we got, i don't know, you weren't part of that, i know, where we were sure there was going to be a taper and there wasn't, part of that was the angst that the ten-year was going up too fast. this time around -- >> it's gone the other way. >> it's gone the other way. is that good or does it signal that maybe the idea that the economy was better than we

thought, maybe that was a mirage. >> there are also cross-currents here because we've seen obviously a change in the vision of emerging countries, the way people discount what's going on. we've seen inflows in the united states. >> but in general, you love 2.7. do you rub that all over you? >> within i take off my depends, i remember it all over me. >> it's really nice for you guys that that has stayed. it also indicates the money is coming back here. this is where it's at. >> here's the point. the equity markets present mechanisms, most markets are. what we focus on is the real economy. to me, the best indicator of what's going on is in the fixed income markets. that's where the fed, in my opinion and the opinion of my colleagues is where it should be focused, not whether there's a blip up. earnings are discounted, cash flows are discounted at a

different rate, depending on what rates are. we're out there on the-year-old curve in terms of our own portfolio have been relatively stable. they have not spike. ask a real business guy. >> the dollar will probably strengthen. that will not help you, is it. >> no question some of the foreign currencies have been under pressure, particularly in latin america. when you run a global business you'll have things that swing both directions from time to time. i think we're encouraged that most economies seem to be making slow and steady progress. over the long term i think that will be good for our business and middle class. >> with the turmoil we've seen in the emerging markets, has that impacted consumer spending? particularly when you're trying to bring people into buying goods that they haven't bought in the past. >> when argentina did the three for one devaluation a number of years ago, you'd see categories disappear. you'd buy laundry detergent but

not fabric softener because you couldn't afford it. we're not seeing purchasing shifts. you're seeing more and more people come into the middle class. we project in the next ten years there will be a billion consumers coming into the middle class in brazil russia and china alo alone. >> are there -- we had greenspan on talking about ceos not doing long-term investment because of not knowing where taxes will be or uncertainty. do you feel tepid as a ceo? do you build places outside of this country because of, you know, it's a better way to do it where the tax policy is? are there things for you to do that need to be more positive about your future? >> there's absolutely corporate tax reform would be a huge boost to business in this country. if we could get the rate down to be competitive with the other industrialized nations, get it down to a 25% rate. >> combine it with cheap energy.

>> it would be a much more level playing field, no question about that. >> key monetary policy. >> monetary policy has nothing to do with what our issues are. >> but you're the only game we've got. you're uncomfortable with everything. i don't want to speak for you but everything is on your shoulders when we can't -- >> the federal reserve, the fomc where policy is made, actually does something. unusual in washington. >> you have to, though. >> we have to. i asked business leaders all the time and the ones that are not mentioned, what's driving your reluctance? the answer is never a lack of access to capital or cheap capital. >> there's plenty of liquidity out there. >> the issue is what is it? >> it has to do with physical regulatory. >> we're hiring to replace vacancies in the u.s. we have just under 20,000 u.s. employees. we probably had high single digit turnover.

we hired about 1,300 employees. most of our hiring is college grads, entry level. so, again, it's pretty stable and not expected to uptick. >> what are you going to do with health care? >> we have a terrific health care plan. >> why would you keep it? >> you want to make sure you compete for talent as well. you have to have the best people. >> even people that are not current employees -- >> joe, there's no question if at some point everyone is in the exchanges, then that's ultimately where business will likely head as well in the near term, i don't think that will be the case. >> just in terms of richard, going back to this conversation about potential tools, the reason you want to get out of qe is because you think it's not effective anymore. is there another tool you could use if there was a shock to the system? if there was something that you thought merited the fed stepping back in? >> you could always adjust the

rate of large-scale asset purchases. we have been adjust ing ing it. you can't push rates lower than they are. that would be the key operating tool. we have forward guidance, what we say we're going to do longer term. how long we'll hold rates, yell beyond 6.5% unemployment. i think we have some tools. i don't see the economy going that direction. i was interested to hear draghi say i do not see a risk of deflation in the united states. the dallas fed's calculation, which i think is the best single indicator, it's ticked up a teeny bit to 1.4% to 1.3%. you have to ask the business operators, do they see pressure on the down side or up side? or are things fairly steady? that's the key. >> tom? >> i would echo richard's point. we're seeing positive upward

pressure on price. there's a report a week or so ago that we made in one category, we're getting a diaper price increase in the first quarter that's rolling over. it will be a mid single digit count change, tissue price increase through desheeting and things like that. we are seeing the ability to take small, positive price moves at this point. which is another sign of strength in the economy overall. >> becky has a 2-year-old. you're very interested in diapers. >> i listened to everything you say about the diapers. >> we're here for you. >> i appreciate it. richard is staking around with us. we'll talk more about what's been happening to the jobs number. >> great conversation, guys. coming up, we'll go around the horn with our pan toll get their final predictions on the jobs report before we get the numbers. ahead of the numbers, dow looks like it would open up about 25 points higher. welcome back. how is everything?

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okay, everybody. we're going to go around the horn really quick. we want two numbers, the nonfarm payroll and unemployment rate prediction. let's start with mark. >> 170k, and 6.6. due to the emergency program expiring. >> kevin?

>> 150 and 6.5. >> and austan? >> 146 and 6.5. >> see what he does there? he subtracts from kevin. >> price is right rules. that's not fair. >> i have to subtract the bias out of kevin. >> hampton pierson joins up. >> up 113,000. up 113,000 january nonfarm payrolls increasing by 113,000 jobs, 6.6% is the unemployment rate. 0.2% average hourly earnings in the month of january. the revisions an additional 33,000 jobs added to payrolls in november. making that revised number 274,000. 74,000 was revised upward by just 1,000 jobs for december. the new number 75. the two-month total plus 34,000. increases in january, construction, up 48,000. manufacturing, plus 21,000. professional and business services, up 36,000. job losses in january, retail

down 13, federal, state and local government, down 29,000. the 6.6 unemployment rate was derived by the number of unemployed, declining by 117,000. employed increase by 638,000. we did have a slight uptick in the labor force participation rate to 63%. the benchmark revisions for march and for all of last year, the net effect to the establishment survey, an additional 136,000 jobs created in all of 2013, more than had been previously reported. weather effects in january and december, the labor department telling us that in january, there are about 262,000 people, of those with jobs but not at work. that's pretty much in line with the average year-over-year. however, due to bad weather there were 694,000 working part time in january versus 338,000 a

year ago. but the big spike as far as weather effects was in december when there, 1.7 million full-time folks basically not working or working part time versus 165,000 in 2012. those out of work we had a slight decline in the number of those out of work six months or longer, 3.6 million, 35.8%, a decline of 232,000. back to you. >> you're seeing the futures which were up by 25 points on the dow turn itself around. probably down 75. now we're down sharply lower, about 100 points lower. let's get back to the pan toll break down the numbers. steve rick, mark zandi, kevin hassett and austan goolsbee. >> it's a weak report, no doubt about it. there's a disappointment in the revisions to the lack of december. the number for january was not very large and that may be the

result of the idea that one survey week, that was the one mild week i think you are talking about that this morning. i'm looking in this report, i'm not seeing anything that stands out as being a sign of stronger or weaker than the number. for example, the weaker hours is unchanged. average weekly hours, both sides of it, the earnings are not up 0.2, not a big deal. retail, you had some of the layoffs that were announced. minus 13,000, not surprising. temporary help, no sign of imminent hiring here. the big story is minus 29,000. my model had 148 for the private sector which it came in at 142. that's okay. the minus 30,000, the idea that there's still government cutbacks going on is significant and whether or not that's holdover from the shutdown, unclear. and the jobless rate, what's interesting about that is minus 117 on the unemployed, plus 600,000 on the employed. >> okay. >> there's been talk about which way -- which survey is leading the way here and i think austan

said earlier about the divergence between the two, maybe for a different reason. you had 500,000 come into the work force. >> mark, did you have the high number on the way into this? >> i did. i had 170. i was high. >> what do you think went wrong here? >> well, you know, the way -- i think it's a lot of weather still in this number. and 30,000 decline in government. something odd is going on there. so take the 113, add in the 29 for the lost government, upward revisions, we'll get more upward revisions for the december number when it's all said and done. we have a number of revisions coming in. the bottom line in my view is that the trend in the job market has not changed. nothing fundamental is going on here. we're still in the 175, 200k per month. that will become evident in the spring. that rings hollow on a day like this when we get a weak number. that's the reality. >> the market reaction is fast

and furious. the ten-point treasury yield, 10.64. you are seeing this flight to quality in the market. >> does anybody want to claim that bad news is good news? we can go back to mr. fisher in pebble beach who may have views on this. >> i think the market understands that growth is better than qe. and i have long offered a trade for somebody that gives me a dollar of growth in exchange for ten bucks of qe. i will take that anytime. i think the market feels that way. i think that people want the if ed to continue the taper. they don't want reasons for them to come back in. i'm pretty sure the fed doesn't want to pause or taper its taper at all. i think what the market wants is growth in some sense in all. jobs are not critical to growth. maybe zandi wants to talk about this. jobs are critical to sustaining growth. they're not what starts the

growth. >> rick, now you can make the number up if you want. where are you before 8:30. >> i was going to go 144,000. i was on the high side. we could argue about weather or jobs aren't important to growth. i'll give you a dollar for $10 for a dollar of growth. boy, these are all -- boy, francois hollande is probably grinning ear to ear. all i see is we dropped yields down to basically unchanged on the week. actually low are. we closed last week. we dropped a couple basis points. that's where we hover. we had an 80-point swing in dow futures basically from up 40 to down 40. the dollar index is a bit lower. i know that everybody wants to say flight to safety. i still think it's more of an eviction notice out of equities personally. i find it fascinating as we start to get the early information on flows, how much went out equities, how much did go into the fixed income markets

and how all the fundamental studies that will be done on the weather and everything, keep it really simple. if the equities, for example, drop 10% are 15% from here, we'll be testing 2 1/4 to 2 3/8. >> mr. goolsbee, the few from the white house, they're watching this. what do you think they're thinking? what are they going to do? >> i think the white house will be disappointed on the payroll numbers. i think the thing to keep in mind, this divergence when you're getting plus 600,000 on employment on the household survey and getting only plus 100,000 on the establishment survey is going to be a big problem, is going to be a big deal. it's going to increasingly diverge as we get changes in labor force participation. but i think the white house is also asking the question, when joe goes to pebble beach, does he count as somebody who's not

doing his job because of the weather? or does the fact that becky's doing two people's job now count against that and just net it out? >> do joe and becky have their mikes on right now? >> i hope not. >> i have no idea what that meant. >> that means you're not doing any work, joe. >> means you're a slacker. >> i think it means you're trying to ontr trying to get out of this crappy number. >> that's really good. you keep predicting how crappy things are. you would know. >> i'm curious how the fed will spin this number. janet yellen has her first, really, public appearance. she's going before congress next week in testimony. how is she going to talk about the labor market? obviously as steve was saying, the bar is very high to change policy but she has to come out and defend the fed's actions and what they're doing to do. >> austan, do you think the fed

and janet yellen will want rates lower or higher? just a quick answer, nothing complicated. >> in their heart they'll want it lower. >> all they have to do is have janet yellen say we're done with qe. any doubts whether rates would be lower after that statement. >> yes, i have some doubts. >> stocks would drop 10%. rates would be lower. it starts to get dicey from here. what they do gets confusing, truly. >> i'll have you answer that. what janet yellen should do, how she should characterize this. >> i think we got a lot of clarity on what the market is thinking right now. as a group we're nerds that look at the data. we were way below expectation. even mark was a little bit below. then we said bad news would be bad news for market. we're in a world where the data are getting slower. yellen will have to talk about that next week.

the fed isn't going to change the tapering strategy because it would look crazy to do that. >> crazier. >> i think fisher gave you the sense right there that the fed is looking at whether the fed's going to be thinking about that and it's going to take some time, i think, to figure out what the right trend of the economy is. >> our special thanks to mark, kevin, austan, rick and steve. i'll send it back to becky. one quick note, the futures were down 100. now they've come back, down about 30. i don't know what you want to make of that. becky, over to you. >> andrew, thank you. we'll talk more about that in a moment. that's a swing of probably 80 points. we were looking at the dow futures up by 40 points, now it looks like they're down by 40 points. we have the head of dallas fed. we'll talk about that. we also have david dorman. "squawk box" will be right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box." have a look at u.s. equity futures. they've been very volatile after the release of the jobs report. lower but certainly off the lows. plunging earlier when we got the headline 113,000 jobs created in the month of january. economists were looking for a number more like 189,000 new jobs. the unemployment rate falling to 6.6%. from 6.7%. and another headline here,

remember that lousy report back in december when only 74,000 jobs were added? the revision, only 1,000 jobs added, perhaps if you look at futures, andrew, you're seeing people just blaming it on the weather. >> what i can't figure out, the first swing, was that computers? >> such a low number. the low number. you have to factor that in obviously. we're seeing sharply lower u.s. treasury yield, a sign of weaker growth, weaker dollar, stronger japanese yen. joe, watching the markets here on that lousy jobs report. over to you. >> yep. join is us now is david dorman, former chairman of at&t and cnbc caremark nonexecutive chairman, foundeding partner at center view capital technology. we'll be with you in a second. we have richard fisher, the federal reserve president of the bank of dallas to weigh in on the job numbers as well. you talked about weather already. >> right.

>> in your view, no one at the fed is going to panic and change what's happening with the taper. my question, then i'll let you speak to that, then i'm going to ask you -- my question to you, you didn't like any of the qes. maybe you liked qe 1 but you didn't like qe 3. how much of that is due to you not liking it the all in the first place? and if yellen decides this isn't going -- the unemployment is not going to come down quickly enough and this is what our mandate is, it doesn't matter what you think. can you really say the taper will be interrupted if this continues? >> again, i can only speak for myself. i will say this. they're not swayed by a single number. these are thoughtful people. >> we'll have a big upward revision. it went from 74 to 75. >> by 1,000 jobs.

i saw that. >> look, the issue is, is this effective? i have argued that qe3 in particular would have a greater cost than benefit. but that's water under the bridge. the issue is now what do we do with an over $4 trillion balance sheet when we're way out there with 30% of the outstanding stock in u.s. treasuries and we're buying the full amount of net new issuance of mortgage-backed securities and how are we going to get out of this later on? you asked real business people like you had on the show before or this great business leader here, is the issue money, cheaper rate or is there something else holding them back from employing people? i listened to austan and others being interviewed earlier. how much can monetary policy do? this has to be considered. all i can tell you, the vote was unanimous. >> business people have been saying this -- they would have

been telling you this for a year and a half that there's enough liquidity. other people in the fed -- >> they have been telling -- everybody has their own judgment. >> you listened. >> not only me. we had a majority opinion. i would ask the business people that you talked to, what is holding them back from committing to greater cap ex here in the united states and from employing more people? i'm skeptical that it's monetary poli policy. >> you're a guest host. sort of. >> put on my badden. >> i look at two things. we have no track record for unwinding what's been done. so as far as i'm concerned this is completely unchartered waters. if you're a business person and worried about government intervention, government vomit, pulling the control rods out, you're best to keep your powder dry until we understand better what's going to happen. do we have a snapback in

interest rates? this is not like fine tuning little bitty knobs. this is kramcranking a big whee. >> richard, even if that's what business leaders say, if this is what's been happening along the way, the fed's position is the fed can only do what the fed can do. they can't change the tax structure, do a lot of those other things. should the fed pull back and do nothing and wait to see what happens? >> what you can do is you can delay the tough decisions that have to be made because you made money so easy. if you're a congresswoman or congressman or senator, the fed's carrying the load for you right now. i don't want to carry this argument too far. the point is there's a lot of liquidity out there. it's high octane fuel, it is dirt cheap. what incents people like dave and his colleagues, big, small, public, private, to use it? that's something we cannot do. the other thing we cannot do by the way, which is very important

here, we cannot affect anything but cyclical employment. structural employment has to do with the way the laws are made. we don't deal with that. we don't deal with immigration issues and so on as alan greenspan was talking about earlier. there's a limit as to what the tool of monetary policy can effect. >> let me do this way. whenever we report the drugstores, there's the front of the drugstore, there's the prescription stuff and you even have caremark. how many different parts the economy can you tell us about? >> two pretty good windows, yum brand on the board. >> that, too. >> at the retail consumer level. >> you can tell bus china. >> in the u.s., weather did have an effect on january. we had such bad weather and so much big markets, people clearly, even if they wanted to go, couldn't get to the store, couldn't get to a taco bell if

they wanted to as easily as they would have. cnbc the same thing, weather does affect retail traffic. >> it's going to affect it for the month of february, too. three monthshappening. three months in a row of pretty lousy numbers. >> when i look at the numbers i'm not surprised and i'm not at this point ready to say, gee, there's something going on different than the weather. i do think the weather affected it when i look at other markets, when we can have unaffected, california's been beautiful until the at&t which is kind of standard. >> it was nice yesterday. just the morning. >> we got lucky. >> yeah, we did. >> but i do think -- >> we're up all night to get lucky. what about -- so how is cvs caremark and is bloomburg on your board now? you've done cigarettes, you can't buy cigarettes, what about a big gulp, can't buy a 24-ounce coke at cvs? why are you deciding for me i can't buy a cigarette at your store? >> we're deciding we won't sell them to you. i think the issue is --

>> where do you take it from here? what's after this? candy? sugar? >> i like this move. >> i know. you like the nanny state. >> further on you than me. >> only the most cynical are trying to make a bad face on this. >> that's why you came to me. >> we're a retail company in our roots. added pharmacy, people forget this was consumer value stores and now we're more of a health care company. we have minute clinics and the prescription benefit caremark business and we see ourselves in the future growing more and it's consistent for a company that calls itself a health care company to sell cigarettes. it's a principled decision and the management brought it to the board and the board agrees. >> i like it. >> herb callaher is 82 years old. what if you want to smoke two cigarettes a week. >> go somewhere else. >> i can still get a big gulp? you're sure? what about a snickers bar? no twinkies god forbid. >> there's probably twinkies

there. >> you better get on that, dave. better get right on that. >> herb was chairman of the federal reserve bank in dallas. >> isn't he great? >> i think there's some bourbon in there, too. >> a little wild turkey. >> that hasn't killed him either. >> i want to ask one question. >> thanks for playing along, david, i appreciate it. >> you bet. >> richard, great having you here? >> are you leaving? >> yes. >> sorry. >> man, i got more for you. >> all right. >> i want some more. take it away from me. >> that's not beating up that's just like, you know, bloomberg set the standard. >> i have to bring all my friends from the company. >> gentlemen, thank you both, have a great day. see you soon. when we come back we'll have more "squawk box" including the market's reaction to the jobs report. check out the "squawk box" blog and aol's boss trying to explain the 401(k) changes because of obamacare and gm's cfo appears to be in denial and cramer's take on the green mountain/coke

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welcome back to "squawk box." take a look at the futures which have been oscillating all over

the place this morning. this is amazing because we had these jobs numbers at 8:30, futures looked down. >> they tanked. >> tanked 100 points. >> and now we're up. >> and the dow jones looks like it will open up 37 higher and the s&p eight points higher and the nasdaq 18 points higher. almost 20 now. i don't really even understand what to make of that. >> you can dig into the report and show signs that came in better, the household survey wasn't as bad and it's pretty strong and there's the weather. we'll continue to watch the market reaction. of course, it is all about jobs day. coming up on "squawk on the street," the chairman of the council of economic advisers jason furman will be commenting on the latest report. find out what the white house says about that disappointing jobs figure. faster than ever, we believe outshining the competition tomorrow requires challenging your business inside and out today. at cognizant, we help forward-looking companies run better

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because it offers a superior level of protection. and because usaa's commitment to serve current and former military members and their families is without equal. begin your legacy. get an auto insurance quote. usaa. we know what it means to serve. welcome back to "squawk box." we should say good-bye or hello to our friends across the way. tell us, what do you think richard fisher really thinks of all this? was there any kind of signals or hints? >> no, i think he's sticking with the weather. i think he's sticking with the weather at this point that he really thinks this is a problem with the water. we've heard that from a lot of

the business leaders we talked to at this point, too. >> i told him, you haven't liked qe all along, whether you want to keep with the taper, that's one thing. we'll see whether yellen and the rest of them stick to it after these lousy numbers. we'll see. >> good luck, joe, out there on the green zone. >> thank you. >> make sure you join us tomorrow. we'll see you later. be sure you join us on monday, "squawk on the street" begins right now. good morning. and welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm david faber with jim cramer. we're live from the new york stock exchange we'll hear from carl quintanilla live from sochi. weaker-than-expected job growth for a second consecutive month. january nonfarm payroll is up 113,000, well below forecasts. december's gain revised higher by only 1,000 jobs, that was up 1,000. the unemployment rate did tick lower last month it is now 6.6% and the participation went up by aou