"squawk box" begins right now. good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box." i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. the dow is coming off the biggest two-day gains in four months. the u.s. equity futures this morning are looking a little weaker. right now the dow futures down by 41 points below fair value. the s&p futures off by 4.5. same story with the nasdaq down by four points. in asia overnight, stocks took their cues from wall street. the shanghai composite closing up 2% in a one-month high. stocks getting a boost from a number of billioncy announcements seen as favorable to earnings growth sectors from autos to insurers and infrastructure. for example, the chinese government extending subsidies for electric vehicles beyond 2015. in the meantime, in japan, the benchmark nikkei index rose to a one-week high. the weaker yen overshadowed disappointing economic numbers.

the japanese economy posted a record current deficit for december. as for europe, here's a look at the major averages in early trading. these are green arrows with modest advances. the cac is up by 10 points and the ftse is up by 5 points. we'll go to ross westgate in a minute in london, but for now we'll go to andrew with the top corporate headlines. thank you, becky. welcome back to you and joe from pebble beach. here's what's going on this morning, a big battle shaping up between carl ikahn and a major proxy firm iss. it is now recommending shareholders vote against the share buy-back proposal for apple. in a report iss says the apple board has returned the bulk of the u.s. generated cash to shareholders by aggressive stock buy-backs and dividends payouts.

in light of these good-faith efforts and its past stewardship has retu , the board's latitude should thought be con striblgted by a shareholder resolution that would micromanage the company's capital allocation process. this could pave the way for higher revenue for the company. also, the wall street journal is reporting that sprint is now apparently rethinking its acquisition of t-mobile. sprint officials are regrouping after anti-trust officials expressed strong sentiments against a deal publicly. the shares of japan's softbank rallied on that news. is journal reporting that sprint executives met with officials at the justice department and the fcc in recent weeks. and a new deal would be a tough sale, but they were surprised at the level of opposition. joe? >> so they thought they were spending too much for it, that's

why they didn't -- >> shareholders of softbank were worried they would overspend. >> that's why i would trade up on the deal. i feel bad for both of them, t-mobile and sprint. >> why? >> they are both walking around not very attractive at the dance. and no one is asking either one to dance. they are like dancing alone, and it would have been perfect if they could get together. at&t was doling out sort of a charity, what are those things called where you just are feeling -- >> i don't know. >> a little philanthropy? >> apple, i've been thinking about apple, is it pg&e now? what happened? >> they don't have a thing. >> well, they do need a thing. they can't make a different shape. we have a triangular ipad now. we have to get this in. it has a gold back that is triang lur. >> now you are going --

>> no, but i've been in silicone valley where people know a lot about technology. we have a little tech panel that has a lot going on, and apparently there's some google phone that has an operating system open or something. hemorrhoid. what's it called? >> android. welcome to the world. >> it is good to see you. it is better than the iphone. >> depending on who you ask. >> have you not been on this program with us before? >> no, it was just driven home to me a little bit that -- >> there was big talk about the panel. >> we had the conversation with android taking over. >> but you were talking and i was not listening, most likely. i know about this stuff. but now maybe a buyback doesn't -- i don't know, i just worry -- >> it was $14 billion in shares. iss matters, right?

>> a car? they should buy tesla. what's next, a tv? >> tv, wearable watches -- >> we just did the nokia story right after that. there was a time when nokia was $. >> that's irrelevant. >> i know, but why is apple without steve -- i love tim cook, but it's hard work. >> there is one argument, which is that there's a bit of a mote, which is everybody shares their pictures among, if you use the ishare and the icloud. i have my laptop, i have my tv and this and that. >> some people don't like that mode. tim cook doesn't think there should be a mode. >> no, he doesn't, but you have gotten into it, too. and it would be hard to switch over. >> i have finally gotten into the apps. there are apps you can't get anymore. >> if you add up all the people in the world that are going to have smartphones, their

marketshare is minuscule. the stock trading at a low evaluation for where it traded so long, people are scratching their head. why has this company traded nine times earnings and there was snapchat. >> now you are into snapchat? >> yeah, i think that may be a big deal. >> part of me thinks this is a no-brainer. the snapchat. >> i didn't understand how that could be major and now i see it is every kid's way of having conversation. it is every kid's way of -- >> it goes to california and comes back a technologist. >> i know a lot about that now. i'm also worried because the weather in pebble beach, see, i've been there for six years, and the weather's always been fine. it's always been sunny. and there was so much rain and wind, i don't think pebble beach has had rain and wind before. >> is this the climate change commentary? >> well, i'm just saying for me personally, and that's how i decide about climate change, it was so different this year in

pebble beach that i think -- because you also know what's happening in the world right now. you know what it is? it's the -- it's the end of snow! without a trace of irony. it's the end of snow! who would "the new york times" get to predict the end of snow? >> are you quoting there? >> no. it's the feature editor who is a skier. he's smart enough and knows enough to predict the end of snow. i love this. without a hitch of irony. this is after the ship got stuck in the ice, the global warming ship that was going to prove there was no ice in antarctica. >> you need to say it with a question mark. >> did you read it? that doesn't matter. they put that in at the last minute. hiss point is there's no more winter olympics. i have drifts at my house -- you know what i think it might be? we have used up all the snow this year.

that's why it might be the end of snow. >> it's not going to be snowing where the ski resorts are? >> i'm not -- i read little bits of it. >> let me see. >> at this point the believers, every single adverse event is ground, floods, warmth. for a while you were saying the snow indicated climate change, but then they started thinking, well, you can't do any single event, but there's a lot of -- all i know is it doesn't look like the end, without a trace of irony, you paper puts that in. without a hint of irony. >> i don't know the answer, but i know scientists, many of them, used to believe strongly that we have climate change in front of us. that is a view among -- >> i know it's a consensus view of climatologists, not

signtologists. the bureaucrats, social scientists and politicians is the group for the most part, but i would have thought you would think about "the new york times." you can't deliver the paper because there's so much snow in areas of new york. it's hard to get in there. people haven't seen the paper because you can't deliver it. toyota is reportedly near a $1 billion deal to end a u.s. criminal probe into acceleration problems. reports say an agreement can come within weeks and a settlement would end a four-week investigation. they are looking into whether toyota misled many in the pedal of their vehicles. there's a michaelman piece, not the director, but the scientist in "the huffington post." the hockey stick, the guy who originally was the loudest alarmist, he says that it may be there's specific winds or something causing -- he

acknowledges a 50-year pause. did "the huffington post" do the tim armstrong story? >> it was slate. >> that's a "huffington post" piece. they should be all over that. >> that was on slate. >> that was slate. >> no, but they covered it. i just meant are they skewering the owner of "the huffington post" as an objective news source would have to. are they skewering tim armstrong? >> we'll get to that story in a big way in a little bit. >> what's that? >> hold the thought. we'll get to that in a little bit. and we have to talk about -- he's running a business, i'm not sure what he said. i haven't looked at it too close. my point is did "the huffington post" cover what their opener said? >> i don't know.

>> okay. there's no right or wrong on this story itself. >> that's what you just said. yes, i do think that. >> well, i know you're going to come down on the side of the -- >> of protecting the individual rights? >> i'm sure that tim armstrong was well intentive in politicking with the way he said. >> i know i have a hard time finding anything he says right in the situation. >> i do know that cvs now has a lot more room for hot pockets and diet pills now that they have cleared out the cigarettes. so they can sell all the stuff -- i think mcdonald's should just stop selling everything at this point in this world. >> i'm shocked that mcdonald's wasn't already in vietnam. i thought they were. >> i think they should stop selling that food. cvs is going to stop selling cigarettes, so mcdonald's should stop selling any of the stuff they sell there in the nanny state.

mcdonald's will report january same store sales before the bell today. the global comps likely rose .20%. the company has relatively flat sales. the u.s. stocks are seen falling by 1.7%. i did see one of them, the ladies that had the baby -- i know every single health problem, where was that case? >> she's fine and more of her herself. i think it's outrageous. >> he didn't mention their names. >> he said two people and everyone who worked with the two people knew who that was. and said it was their fault. >> it is not that they are cutting it but you have to invest it in the year. if the market went up in flames after that -- >> two people have a million dollars each. >> you will save $7 million by effectively moving the 401(k)

match. i think these coworkers would walk in and go, you're fault. i think it was inan artful. i think he was trying to say the world is expensive, we have these costs. they are costs we don't really plan on, and this is why -- this is a lose/lose. >> that's the point of health insurance. >> well, that's the point of health insurance for health insurance policy coverage. the company would -- i think the point he was trying to say is, look, we have all these other costs. i don't know. >> i'm sure he was, but as a result you completely violated the privacy of the two employees. everyone else will look at this. >> interestingly, look at "the huffington post," there's one interesting fact in here which is the editor of "the huffington post," that's his kid.

so the wife was -- you said, where was his position? >> she wrote about how her husband had to ray sign this as a business story. >> but the name had not been out there until -- i thought it was a little -- i know fellows very well, actually. so they went publicly with it because it exposed you more than you were exposed. >> i was reading that another analysis in the bum coast, he looks like he's 25. it was a bad report on the ceo for obamacare. republicans are twisting it around to make it look like it will hurt jobs, like 2 million jobs. but, in fact, it will help people work less. because in this country, we're working too damn hard. in france it's only 30 hours. there's nothing wrong to help

people enjoy life more. if you want to stop working, you should stop working. and republicans are spinning it agai again. the liberals are now spinning this as a good thing. >> if you watched "meet the press" yesterday -- >> they have a chance to slowdown! >> you need time to spend at home or more importantly the opportunity this is going to create. because if you want to get out of the situation you're in and then take time and innovative in starting a small business. this is the opportunity to start a small business, and that's going to change everything. >> pelosi said artists and painters should have health care even if they earn a dime. the reason i brought up cvs is i got a bunch of tweets that said, were you here when the entire show was how it was good that cvs was done?

did you think it was a good thing? >> i brought up her coat, i don't think -- >> then where do you draw the line? what do you not sell? >> they have decided it's income panel -- that's the brand. >> more room for hot pockets. >> i get that, joe, but secrets are implicitly a bad thing. explicitly, rather. >> would you reserve the right for people to smoke, right? >> you can't. because we're paying for their health care under -- they should be paying for their own. >> i was paying for it the whole time. not to sell -- >> the issue is not to sell it.

that's your prerogative. consider yourself a health care company and no longer want to be selling. >> we have a lot to do. >> it's a drugstore company. now it's time for the global markets report. ross westgate is standing by in london. jump in to weigh in on the issues we have been talking about this morning. >> only i reckon over here the amount of tax smokers pay on their cigarettes probably pays the cost of their health care. and make it illegal. >> i was in davos, the most healthy place in the world. every person that i walked by was smoking a cigarette. i was like -- even in the fresh mountain air, but i don't know if they would be talking about it. over in euroland, the guy in the paris airport has a big cigarette in his mouth, right?

>> yes, but they have banned it indoors in most places in europe. it is kind of ironic in davos because this is a recuperation cent center. >> i was where the lights go out at night and you're walking through -- i thought about you. >> i was afraid. >> i was walking down the pitch black hall. anyway, go up. >> that's the unusual aspect as we may say. we are three hours into trading day here in europe and came back down to the lowest levels of the session. advances are pretty evenly matched on the box 600. more gapers than losers but ftse, here we are todd,

absolutely flat waiting for the numbers. chemic chemicals and banks here, the third worst performer. this is up 1.9% and they added some scandals coming in here as they launch an investigation after reports that personal details of 27,000 customers have been stolen and sold. this is according to britain's mail on sunday newspaper. things like health, past with decades and the potential of new finds for the bank. at the same time, they are about to see where the earnings comes out and we see statutory with a jump on the lower figure. the higher figure is a notch

down. amazon is looking around 5.8. that low could be boosting the stock this morning. plenty more questions coming up for mr. jenkins, the ceo of barclays, when they release the numbers in a few days. in the meantime, banks are on the pressure because there's more reports that the 50 billion euro cap is going to be revealed in quality review. meanwhile, the lady in charge of the asset quality review, the new chief banking regulator suggesting weak banks should be allowed to die, which is maybe a principal or principle. we'll be spending a lot of time digging into the bank sector in europe. that's where we stand at the moment. back to you. >> ross, thank you for that and for your commentary on cigarettes. we got a lot there. we have a lot coming up after

the break as well, including this one. you have damage control. we just started talking about it, but we have a lot more on it. aol's tim cook is making changes after negative publicity. and the distressed baby mom fires back. we have that story after the break. and check out dumb starbucks. yep, dumb starbucks logos, design cups, all that, except the word dumb. how can they get away with that? this is called dumbstarbucks. we'll explain what this is all about when we come back in a moment. uhhh. no, that can't happen. that's the thing, you don't know how long it has to last. everyone has retirement questions. so ameriprise created the exclusive.. confident retirement approach. now you and your ameripise advisor can get the real answers you need. well, knowing gives you confidence. start building your confident retirement today.

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welcome back. right now it's time for the executive edge. aol's ceo tim armstrong has abandoned the plan to delay employee contributions to their 401(k) plans until the end of the year. this comes after the employees complained. armstrong suggested that two distressed babies were among the reasons for the controversial plan. the mother of one of those two babies spoke out to nbc news. >> it was sort of impossible to process that he was talking about my daughter who was home with me at that time. you know, to hear her labeled a distressed baby who cost the company too much money and therefore the ceo had to make the decision to cut retirement benefits. it just seemed like so completely dehumanizing. >> armstrong has apologized for bringing up specific health care

examples during a town hall meeting in which the retirement plan was discussed. guys, we talked about this last break or in the last segment before we went to break, this is something that definitely has caught a lot of national attention. >> maybe it was a much bigger company, i don't know -- >> it's a large company to begin with. >> but the problem is he didn't mention the names of the people, so people that knew, were in the same little area knew who he was talking about. >> interestingly, you would know that, even if it was nbc or comcast or something, you would be able to figure it out. it's a violation of privacy. >> nbc wouldn't be able to figure it out. i wouldn't. >> i would argue that you would, in fact, the woman just interviewed said that her husband didn't realize it was about them in the beginning. so that's where i get a little -- i think that he was very good in terms of explaining this and there was no denying what he said, but i do believe that what he was just trying to

do was explain, look, we are a business, we have certain costs, there are different things that are unexpected and that's why we do what we do. and i think people don't want to have an honest conversation always about things, especially when it comes to health care. >> another one of her points is he happened to do this at the time they were announcing record earnings and talking about how great things were going. probably not the best time to talk about cutting back employee benefits. >> let me ask you a different question, last week i started this thing called apology watch in my column about authentic apologies or inauthentic apologies, does this count as the authentic apology? >> i have not seen tim's apology. she said he apologized to them and had written to them and is trying to talk to them in person, too, so i have not seen his apology, it's hard to say. i know that i like tim. and anybody who steps into something like this says, i'm sorry, i didn't see the cops consequences of what was going to happen. i'm sorry.

i haven't seen or talked to him about it so it's hard to judge. >> i was coming out of the same place in part because not only did he apologize, which is just words, which are not always authentic, but they reversed the policy. >> look, you can be cynical about any of the things you want to. my guess is knowing tim, he means it. he's sorry. >> becky, you think it's insensitive that he did that, but now are you saying that if a company has record profits that they shouldn't be looking at any type of cost containment? >> it is a much tougher time say we can no longer be doing what we paid for you. if it happened to us with our benefits, i would think the same thing. >> what if they were far out of line for industry norms or we all have to move away to define benefits and define contributions. >> i think that's lot tougher to do when you're tim. if you decide we can no longer afford to do these things, there should be a reason for why that happened. >> if a company has record profits, should everyone get a

raise that day? >> i'm not saying that. but they are saying record profits for us but we are no longer doing for our employees what we have been doing all along. you can also imagine the backlash. >> i have a problem with the substantive issue of the matching program. it's a benefit, so it's not somehow guaranteed to begin with with the idea of not getting paid the whole time and they can fire you. >> without getting it, right? >> you told me that the policy was, if you work all year and you stay with the company voluntarily, you get the money, great. but if we fire you, you actually get retroactively anyway? i would say fine. >> i have less of a problem -- when i worked for dow jones, that's the way it used to happen. it was at the end of the year, and if you were fired you didn't get it. >> i think that's less attractive than from the employee perspective. >> then get a job at a place that doesn't do it that way. >> and that's the argument. aol, this is not a great trend for the employees perspective. >> companies need to decide, you

do as much as you can to attract talent away from your competitors, but after that you don't just do things because you're a nice guy. >> i would argue that one of the reasons that tim armstrong decided to apologize was because all this publicity would make it harder, if you were a potential employee at aol after this situation, you would say to yourself, about somebody's health care problems, therefore he almost needed you beyond the authentic apology. >> all the companies are in a global marketplace right now where you're trying to compete and do the best. and it's like the old wrargt a private equity firm or someone comes in to save a company, they have to layoff people. n now, do you want your company surviving so the rest of the employees can have -- >> but to say that the company is doing this. >> if they are being maximized, your ability to compete globally, you need to be as slim and as lean and as mean and to

do as well as you possibly can. >> the national coverage is taking place right now about inequality and whether or not this goes back to the shareholders. it's a different story with a company struggling with no cut-backs. >> you don't have to be struggling to try to maximize your ability to compete. >> whether you agree at it or not, look at the optics. it doesn't play well. >> the people that want better benefits should go to a company that offers better benefits. then we'll see how that company compares to the other one. >> i think we should dedicate the entire three hours to this subject. well, we're not going to do that but we'll talk more about it coming up. and we also have to talk about the post jobs report market. the ne the. and the gold, silver and bronze medals are flying in

sochi. michelle cabrera talks to a millionaire with a lot riding on the games. and tomorrow an exclusive interview with facebook coosheryl sandberg. we'll be right back. dozens of tax free zones all across the state. move here, expand here, or start a new business here and pay no taxes for ten years... we're new york. if there's something that creates more jobs, and grows more businesses... we're open to it. start a tax-free business at startup-ny.com.

good morning. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm joe kernan along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin. toyota is to stop making cars in

australia by 2017. and gasoline prices falling two cents a gallon during the past two to weeks. the lumberg survey says the average for a gallon of regular unleaded is now $3.29. oil is not down but yet something, somewhere, somehow will factor in how cheap natural gas is. it's going to get into energy prices somewhere because there's a lot of it. and the united arab emirates plans to use unmanned aerial drones to deliver official documents and packages to its citizens. this is part of an effort to upgrade government services. the wealthy gulf state is known for showmanship and love of high-tech gadgets. and the battery-operated vehicle represents a butterfly with a top compartment to carry small parcels. >> it resembles a toy helicopter that will fall on top of people's heads. that's what it is. i want to put that on the record and say that.

>> the united states uses drones to deliver some messages to some people in parts of the middle east. >> yeah, those are different types. >> those are different. different messages as well. if you were to verbalize parcels -- well, let's check on the markets. we have kevin cummings, a u.s. economist and jeff mortimer, director of investment strategy and wealth management. so i didn't do the math. i wanted to. what is 53 divided by 1850? we are not down much by the s&p now, are we, kevin? do we ever get above the december 31st close? and when do you expect it and do we move higher this year? >> i think we do. the overall economic backdrop is a positive one for stocks. julian emmanuel is our strategist when it comes to strategy and the target at the end of the year is 1950. >> 1950.

so what about jobs, are we doing $200,000 a month or $100,000 a month? >> yeah, we are closer to $100,000 a month. the last few months are hard to adjust for. if you look at the last two-month average, you are below $100,000. but in the prior year, we are at $256,000. so smoothing through a lot of the volatility that is due to weather and difficulty seasonally adjusting for the holidays and such. your economy is adding about 175 to 200,000 jobs a month. >> so, jeff, on friday, was that the possibility, if we are down 2.8% now, on the s&p, on friday was that the possibility that we just don't -- that we start gelling with yellen and stay where we are on the table and don't do another ten? is there any chance that they slowly sort of ease into not doing anything for a while taperwise? >> i think the hurdle rate on

moving away from $10 billion is quite high. we all agree, i think we are not alone in thinking that the unemployment rate has stayed annoyingly high and has been slow to decline from the 10% it was in earl hi of december 2009. but i'm thinking investors have to take away, and i agree with the other speaker with me, the trend from 10% down to 6.6, 6.7%, is a positive one. and markets, in general, like a falling unemployment rate. and the s&p has moved up substantially from that march bottom. >> so you don't have a problem with the way the unemployment rate is falling? >> i have -- it's a bit of an issue, and i have had clients who suggest, boy, how can you trust it? my response to them is, it's the best that we have. it's still -- it isn't perfect, but for those people that questioned how the rate is calculated -- >> no, i don't mean that, but

people that are working, they can't get as much work as they want, so they would like to work more, and people who are not looking, it's like 13%. >> 13.1, that's correct. and it's stubbornly high, but there's been -- this has been a deleveraging after the financial crisis. you've had fiscal drag coming out of washington, d.c. i think there's a lot of issues that sort of kept that high. but again, as an investment strategist, i allocate capital among investments. and we still also have 1900 to 1950 target on the s&p. we are also not backing away from that. so i think we'll get through the bumpiness of kind of the weather- weather-induced high unemployment and i think the second half is better than the first. >> so you think -- kevin, you also think -- >> i think we'll take out the highs. >> kevin, you think this is a 3% year and other people say we are going back down to have another 2% year when all is said and

done. and the ten-year, i don't know what that's saying, but -- >> yeah, i think you're going to get a message tomorrow from the fed chair yellen consistent with the stubbornly high unemployment rate. and i think she'll suggest that policies remain accommodative. and i think she does distance herself from pegging policy on the unemployment rate. so i think she's going to try to suggest that she's looking at a wide range of market gauges. and if you look at those, they are pointing in the right direction. gdp growth of 3% is more likely for 2014 than it was in 2013 of closer to 2%. it's not going to be a straight line, though. the first quarter we've only got 2% real gdp and it looks like we'll get a payback on inventories. the inventory growth contributed significantly in the back half of last year. >> jeff mortimer and randolph,

that's the other guy's name. do you still get that? >> from our generation, i get that. the younger kids don't know what we're talking about. >> something is wrong with me. i see those two guys talking in the restroom, you know? making a dollar yet, dollar yet. the olympic games are in full swing. we'll find out what michelle cabrera has from sochi. >> greetings from a beautiful 50-degree day here in sochi, becky and andrew. coming up, we'll meet the man who invested $1 million in olympic infrastructure. the head of basic element, a huge russian conglomerate. we'll see why he spent all that money and was it worth it? that's coming up on "squawk box"

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welcome back to "squawk box." my name is vanna white. french president francois hollande will travel to charlottesville, virginia. he'll go with president obama. they will speak at the home of thomas jefferson and an early ambassador to france. tomorrow janet yellen makes her first appearance on capitol hill and will testify before the house financial services committee. then she'll speak on the senate side later in the week. if you are looking for economic data, wait until thursday. here's what's happening in your weekly jobs claims, retail sales and business inventories. back over to becky, miss quick.

thank you. the winter olympics are in full swing in sochi, russia. chief international correspondent michelle cabrera is joining by one of the big investors in the olympic infrastructure, something we have heard so much about. michelle? >> thank you so much. joining us here onset is the man who came to providence in the world during the consolidation of the aluminum russia during the tumultuous '90s and is a n conglomerate with agribusiness, good to have you here. >> thank you. >> you have invested a billion dollars in the olympic village being very 700 million, the international airport, $400 million, the cargo airport, 170 million, why did you do that? >> we believe in the city. >> you believe in sochi? >> yeah. >> are you going to get your money back? >> one day.

>> how long will it take? >> it depends. it depends. airport is a very good business. we need to be part of a big real estate project, and the rest is just the time when people will come and see how good we are developed here. and they will buy. >> it's our understanding that a lot of these hotels were built with the expectation, with expectations for much higher occupancy levels that have been here in the past, do you think with the hotels built you'll get enough of a russian middle-class clientele to come and stay in them to make the money you spent? >> to make some reference, it all depends on the service cost and comfort. how people will feel about it, but sochi is very unique. the whole area just is 100 miles in the zone leading to good

territory year-round in russia. >> can you give us some context about the overall costs? i don't know if you've seen, but the cost of the games have been ridiculed by the international press. $50 billion, the most expensive olympic ever, more than all the other winter olympics combined. there must be corruption, there must be this, how do you see that cost? >> i never believe in numbers. i can guess 27, 29? those are the right numbers. and if you take olympic itself, its maybe quarter. >> i'm confused because that 50 billion we got from the russian government more than a year ago. >> no, it was never from russian government. it's from russian journalists, mainly. >> so you think the total cost is only 29 billion? >> 27, 29 in this range.

but you can't count private investment. it was not just state, big companies, big investors, big pocket, but it was a lot of middle-sized business, which were also involved in upgrading hotels and upgrading the restaurants and shops. some taxi drivers bought new cars, it was a lot of private money also. that's why i do believe in these numbers, and only quarter is actually related to this event. people invested a lot for the long term. it will help raise money and raise attention. >> the narrative about you, i'm sure you've read this, too, that out of favor olygarchs were forced to invest, is that true? >> i think bad people were born

here, i was born here in this region, but no, it's completely crap. >> completely crap. one other thought, the russian market, it's trading at a multiple of four. it's down so far. why do you think that is? >> the state enterprise drives the market down. >> the state we are surprise. too much interveng? >> we need to finally start -- in a real privatization, not for free like it used to be, but it should be whole efforts to rebuild capital market, financial system. >> thank you so much for joining us, we really appreciate it. >> thank you. >> it's a pleasure to have you on. >> enjoy the game. >> we are. the subtropical climate, at first i was skeptical, i'm now a fan. becky, joe, andrew, guys, back to you. >> okay. michelle, thank you. you recognize that dude? >> i do. i do. >> he's one that has thrown some

parties. >> we occasionally see him in davos. he's out there. >> he's vodka. >> all good things. all good things. >> all right. we'll leave it at that. what else would i be talking about? >> i don't know. coming up, ordering a venti latte at a dumb starbucks. that's right. same logo, same menu, but how do they get away with this? find out, next. ameriprise asked people a simple question: in retirement, will you outlive your money? uhhh. no, that can't happen. that's the thing, you don't know how long it has to last. everyone has retirement questions. so ameriprise created the exclusive.. confident retirement approach. now you and your ameripise advisor can get the real answers you need. well, knowing gives you confidence. start building your confident retirement today.

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this is a shop called dumb starbucks and offered free company all weekend. starbucks says it has nothing to do with the new shop but is looking into it. you can call it parody, but at some point you are just ripping it off. >> but it is parody, it is clear called dumb starbucks. people know it is not starbucks, i don't know. >> it's not the kind of parody you talk about that you want for everyone living in this country. >> parody -- you want parity. this is a joke on -- >> parody and parity to me are the same. >> i missed you.

i missed you. >> i missed you, too. >> i think i got more stockholm than -- >> than davos, really? >> the whole state is blue, but monterey is the republican ground there. >> we have to run. coming up, the state of the markets following the jobs report on friday. stocks rallied on that news. and now economists are looking at growth. we'll break it all down with the chief economist at jpmorgan right after the break. when you order the works

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gives you unprecedented access to every moment of nbc universal's coverage of the sochi olympics, now on your tv. the x1 entertainment operating system, only from xfinity. will it be new fed chair janet yellen on the hot seat? get ready for the new week on wall street. >> the medals are already flying

in sochi. what we can expect from curling. that's right. curling. and we are on apology watch. ♪ i'm sorry so sorry >> aol's tim armstrong is the latest executive to say he's sorry, he joins the growing ranks of high-profile figures having to apologize, but do they really mean it? "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin and joe kernen. we've been watching the futures and they've been lower. the dow futures down by about 46 points below fair value. the ten year is what we were talking about off set. right now it's yielding 2.669%. below where it had been yielding before we got that jobs report on friday.

in our headlines, proxy advisory firm iss says that apple shareholders should vote no on carl icahn's $50 billion share buyback proposal. iss says the proposal would unnecessarily micromanage the company's capitalization process. icahn hasn't yet commented but his office says he will have something to say about it before the opening of trading this morning. analysts expecting a 0.2% rise in global same-store sales for january for mcdonald's. they're forecasting a 1.7% drop here in the united states. europe and the so-called region are expected to post gains. mcdonald's stock is almost where it was one year ago, 95.65. toyota is said to be near a $1 billion settlement that would end a four-year problem into unintended acceleration cases.

>> all right. i'm still thinking about mcdonald's in relation to cvs. in a nanny state like cvs, which cvs is trying to orchestrate, what would mcdonald's still be allowed to sell if you had your way. >> the government telling you what you could do. >> there's a health care company that's decided they don't want to sell cigarettes. >> it is the place that has the front end. >> it's cvs earmark. not cvs. >> mcdonald's has never tried to portray itself as a health care company. >> it's a drugstore train. >> they're shifting their focus. >> if mcdonald's -- >> they've been bloomberg-ifide.

>> this is the best decision they every made. the president of the united states puts out a statement about your company. how valuable is that? >> i'm ready for mcdonald's to decide we are going to stop selling food, because that's what they need to do if we're all going to be healthy. >> they'll so no more french fries. >> no more 16 ounce -- >> we will now not sell any more hamburgers. it's a big week for the economy. steve liesman joins us now. it's a lie, steve, you are not on set. >> you're behind the set. i know for a fact you're not here. >> at the wall. a lot of questions about what happens with the economy this week. and what economists thought of last week. i don't think it matters very much, why? because you have bruce kasman on jpmorgan on set. i'm not going to take time away from him. second, what really matters is yellen's view of the slowdown. i want to spend a second talking about an issue that a lot of economists are talking about that is critical to federal reserve policy, which is what's beginning on with the unemployment rate and the difference between the long-term and the short term unemployed.

here's the blue line here. the unemployment rate by duration, 27 weeks. it's come down sharply but look how far it is above the long-term average here. here's the rate, if you're an unemployment claims for 5 to 15 weeks, getting really back to normal, a normal market for these folks but a different market for these. i want to show you the difference here and whether or not some of the unemployment we have is struk turl or siis cycl. it's below trend but it's ticking up and it's almost near trend. let's go to the next step here if you're unemployed 5 to 14 weeks and what we'll focus on is the 27 weeks to 52 weeks. very, very low chance, little chance of getting back to work. how about your chance of dropping out? that's the next bit right there. five weeks, you're almost back to normal here. go back to the next group here. and you can see it's come up a little bit. the chance dropping out. and also -- these people are dropping out in increasing

proportions. that's interesting. the next thing, by the way i need to credit allen krueger who gave me some charts for a paper he's working on for brookings coming out soon. this is the kicker right here. where do we have to go? the long-term unemployed will drop out in increasing proportions if they get back to their historical average, those who are 5 to 14 weeks and 27 to 52 weeks are pretty much at their long-term average. the bottom line is it increasingly looks like we're getting back to a place where i don't know if we'll be able to do anything with monetary policy, certainly. the question about fiscal policy would work to get the long-term unemployed to work if they go back to historical averages. it looks much better for short-term unemployed. >> will you, whenever the obama administration or one of its people send you stuff, will you from now on cop to it like this? that would be great for

disclosure. this was from krueger? when valerie sends something over, will you say that now, please? >> bruce, are you going to help me out here? allen krueger is one of the foremost economists out there. i gave you none of his policy conclusions in there. >> i think in terms of disclosure -- >> where's the politics in that? there's no politics. it's simply there's a long-term problem and short-term problem. they're different problems. i'm not providing any administration story here. >> for disclosure, i thought this was a new policy. for disclosure, i thought it was really good, transparency of where you get this stuff. >> allen gave me charts on his paper that i thought were interesting. there have to be conclusions out there and the policy implications for the fed and the fiscal side. that's what that story is about, joe. >> let's go to these guys. >> welcome back from pebble beach by the way.

>> i was being sarcastic about mcdonald's. i'm talking about the nanny state. i love mcdonald's. >> that's why i think it's different if a company chooses to do it. >> i'm just saying the people that we're talking about, that likes this kind of thing and wishes everyone did it, they could conflate cigarettes with mcdonald's. >> i'm arguing this is a capitalistic idea that the ceo and the board decided this was actually better for their patients. >> maybe for pr. that's more cynical in my view. >> that's part of business. >> all business is cynical. >> let's jump back into the discussi discussion. joining us is charles campbell, executive director at mkm partners. our guest host for the next hour is bruce kasman, chief economist at jpmorgan. let me ask you this first, bruce. what happened with friday's jobs report? is there any way to look at that and say this was not as bad as we thought it was. >> there's some reason to be

cautious about putting the weight on the number itself. numbers move around a lot. it was a disappointing report. what is disappointing in the number, it's reinforcing the sense that the economy is losing steam. i would look past as what i think was a lot of noise and the momentum and economy grew 3.5% in the second half of last year. we're starting to see a slide in momentum, which is in the hours number, in some of the data underlying the payroll report. it's in the global economy we're starting to see. now we're trying to get the sense of how much of that is a shorter term phenomenon. we think growth will be about 2.5 in the first half of this year in the u.s. we think the economy is fundamentally sound. the noise will average 3% as we go through the next number of quarters. we faded the balances. i think you want to fade the dip here, recognize this dip is just beginning and we'll see it in december, january and maybe even into february numbers. >> if that's the case, charles, why did the market -- the stock market trade up on these numbers on friday? do they think the fed will step back in and slow down on the

tapering process? >> here's the thing, becky. the equity market was up thursday by more than 1%, largely in part on short covering by institutional investors. friday it was up 1% additionally. the first back-to-back gain. we went all of 2013, up 30%, no two back-to-back days of up 1% or more. on friday, ten-year treasuries rallied as the yield declined before a sell-off at the close. gold moved up about the 8:30, before the release $6. we'll get confirmation on that from chairmanen yellen on that tuesday or thursday. >> do you think that's likely, yellen will say, okay, we'll hang in there with qe. >> i don't think yellen will signal what's going to happen on

tapering at the meeting here. i think they want to be a programatic path, gearing the tapering to balancing financial stability issues with a rate guidance. if we're sitting here at the march meeting, we get three straight reports on payrolls that average 100,000. >> which could easily happen. >> we're not going to see that this week and i don't think yellen will prejudge what the march payroll report will deliver. i think this is a first meeting. she hasn't had a meeting which she's chaired the committee yet. we'll get less than we'd like in terms of janet yellen talking to us about monetary policy. >> the expectation is she sticks to the script. she doesn't have to make a call right now. >> you think the market wants taper? >> if she pulled back on tapering now, that would suggest things are a complete disaster. people would go out of their minds. >> she's just acknowledging it and trying to help, then it might be good again. >> i don't think she's going to

do that. she doesn't have to make a call now. why should she? what bruce said is really important. she hasn't chaired a meeting yet and she hasn't come out with the strength for change of policy from the committee. >> at this point we never skip a month? >> at this point. >> not at this point but -- tell me right now, do we never pause on the taper? >> if the data remains kind of the way it's going, yes, we don't pause. kind of the way it's going. if you do 2, 2 1/2 like bruce is forecasting, the median forecast. >> 2 1/2. in late spring we pick up steam. >> what about 6, 5 1/2? >> we don't do that. >> they're not going to change it? >> the fed is more pessimistic on the supply side of the economy with the long term/short term unemployment. it's more committed to trying to get demand growth to try to change that. and trying to change that means putting less emphasis on the employment rate as an indicator of when you start to adjust policy. i think we have a fed that's

moving away from rules, moving away from unemployment pressure. >> no one should assume at 6 1/2% they'll start raising short term rates. >> we might be below that at the next meeting. >> if you look at the u-6 -- >> he got mad at me for saying 13. >> 12.7. >> i thought i'd help. >> how far do you go out on pi? >> 12.7 is 13. >> how high do you go on pi? >> 3.14. >> sorry, joe. >> the u-6 is above u-3, whether you look at it as a spread were 340 basis points or -- >> wage inflation is running 2%. 2% wage inflation is way too low for a central bank trying to target 2% inflation. we have room to run and the relation to the unemployment rate and wage inflation is

really loose. we went through the whole last cycle. >> how much is there in the market? if you see the long-term unemployed are not coming back, are not part of the slack in the market and the short-term unemployed, that's where the slack is or isn't. >> it feels like it's less. we don't know where the limits are. in that world, the fed will tell us it will try to push this as far as it can to see how far we can go. i think there's a big chance that we'll be sitting here with wage inflation. we're not going to feel there's an inflation threat here anytime in the near future. that's going to be what the fed is going to be having on its side here. >> charles, thank you very much for coming in today. great talking to you, steve, we'll see you later. bruce will be with us for the rest of the hour. within we come bang, a debate over the debates of the politics in the economy. then michelle caruso-cabrera picks up the game of curling. >> coming up on cnbc, everything you wanted to know about curling, wall street's favorite

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[ man ] i don't know if this is gonna be a first or second, but this is gonna be a medal! [ man #2 ] and it looks like we could have another one of those photos! [ female announcer ] every minute. every medal. every screen. the nbc sports live extra app gives you unprecedented access to every moment of nbc universal's coverage of the sochi olympics, now on your tv. the x1 entertainment operating system, only from xfinity. welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. there's a confidential e-mail emerging that shows a top chinese regulator directly asking jpmorgan boss jamie dimond for hiring an applicant.

the times reports that dimond is not expected of doing any wrongdoing. i asked jammy dimon about the investigation. >> we are trying to do the right thing. i think everyone has to look back at the rules. not thanks by the way. people hire ex-governor officials, sons and daughters. we have to figure out exactly how to create a safe harbor for that so you don't end up getting punished. >> interesting story, joe. interesting story. >> by the way, happens to me. people come up to me, whether it for "the new york times" or cnbc, can you help get an internship for so-and-so? >> i was thinking about how young you started working. wasn't there something there, too?

weren't you a princeling? >> i never told you this story. my dad asked a guy and sent a letter on my behalf and i got a letter back, which i still have, from the president of "the new york times" saying no dice, you're too young. >> that was when you were 11. >> no, no, no. >> 17 or 18. >> he didn't know it. when i got the job i had to go 20 other ways to go in. russ lewis, i explained the whole story. >> you have never been a princeling? >> i like to think of myself as a princeling. >> you are a royal something. >> thank you, sir, may i have another. david walker, taxes ranger and jared bernstein. if you don't think a liberal when you're finished with him you are. time now for today's aflac trivia question. how many official paying

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how many official paying customers does netflix have outside the u.s.? the answer, 9.7 million. >> aflac. new fed chief janet yellen is set to make her first appearance on the hill tomorrow. she'll have plenty to talk about from jobs and the economy to the looming debt ceiling. joining us now is david walker, former u.s. controller general and jared bernstein, a senior fellow at the center on budget and policy priorities and former economic adviser. >> i heard you sa that. i thought about how i bring out your better self. i feel good about that. >> david just sat down. i didn't realize this. he always told me you're an independent. >> that's right.

>> everything you do is nonpartisan. you always seem to make so much sense to me. i figured you were a leaning republican at least. you are an independent -- >> i'm an independent minded and inclusive republican. there's at least one in connecticut. the reason i did, frankly, i'm exploring the possibility of running for lieutenant governor of connecticut and the two parties have basically foreclosed the possibility of independence running. if you're going to run for office, you have to be able to align with one of the major parties. i'm the same person. don't fret. >> jared, did you -- i've seen the panic, followed by the spin on the left from that cbo report. it's amazing to me, i read a huff post piece. i didn't understand it the entire time. we are apparently just trying to work a little bit less and enjoy life a little bit more. it was very good news that came out, that we're not going to have 2 million jobs. to not look at that positively, i was looking at it entirely wrong. how would you thin sp nspin thi

>> i wouldn't spin it. i would interpret it as follows. there are two effects from this kind of subsidy that phases as income rises. one is good, one is bad. the one you've been emphasizing, the higher after-tax rate. it does unlock job lock for some people who would like to do something else but are working more than they'd like to to keep health insurance. that's what economists call the income effect. that's a positive thing. i think what we don't know is how many people are on either side. i'm with you in the sense that it's wrong to say this is all good. it's also wrong to say it's all bad. >> how can it not be bad? i don't get the not bad part. >> i can explain that pretty easily. there are -- and the research that backs this up is quite solid, based on sort of natural

experiments. there are people whom once they figure out that they can get health insurance outside of their job for less money will quit their job and do something else. that something else will make them happier. now, that might be staying home with the kids, early retirement, it might be an innovative project or working somewhere elsewhere they don't get health coverage. >> right. >> it's called job lock. >> it feels like a trickle down theory. all the things you reject traditionally. >> we have a structural problem with unemployment. that structural problem will not be dealt with until we end up doing something about it, our education system, training system, critical infrastructure. quite frankly a lot of our government programs, especially the welfare systems are not encouraging people to work. even if they wanted to work, they don't necessarily have the skills and knowledge we need in today's economy in order to be able to be effectively employed. let's start dealing with the disease rather than trying to treat the symptoms. >> one asterisk to that is that

there actually is one pretty large safety net program called the earned income tax credit. it's actually about 60 billion a year, which is widely considered to be pro-work with lots of evidence supportive of that claim. i wouldn't be so sweeping in my claims about the safety net as david just was. >> i agree, the eitc is something we should be doing more of but we also have to crack down on abuse of the eitc program. >> sure. >> frankly going eitc is better than trying to raise the minimum wage in many cases because of the potential effects on unemployment. >> i take your point about employment. i've been listening to the show for a while. i know bruce is there. i agree, you're talking about long-term structures. in the near term, one positive thing that's happening this year relative to last year, there will be less fiscal drag from the government sector. that should help a bit in 2014

versus '13. >> it will but we haven't dealt with the three structural problems there. we haven't dealt with social insurance programs, rationalized health care promises and done enough to control costs and we haven't done comprehensive tax reform. until we do, there's going to be a great deal of uncertainty and we're not going to get the level of growth we need. >> i don't see the trickle down a pejorative. you hope everyone benefits. i must begin my journey,

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what about the dark castle? you call that defense?! come on! [ female announcer ] watch live tv anywhere. the x1 entertainment operating system, only from xfinity. welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. in the headlines, gasoline prices edging lower in recent weeks. the lowest lundberg survey saying the average price of gas is at $3.29 per gallon, down 2 cents over the past two weeks and 30 cents lower than a year ago. jeeves is thrilled about that news. sprint is said -- nobody laughed. sprint is said to be rethinking a possible bid for rival t-mobile. reports saying that company

officials are surprised at the strong level of opposition. >> now we're laughing. >> sprin and t-mobile executives think a combination could create better competition for market leaders, verizon wireless and at&t. mcdonald's will report january same-store sales before the weekend. >> whether that be vietnam, whether that's malaysia, whether that's singapore, whether that's south korea or china. we're investing in these markets for the long term. we don't expect to see a tremendous return on that investment year one or year two or three even, in some cases. what we do expect is that we'll build a fundamental awareness of the brand, we'll satisfy those needs and continue to build our business into the future. >> we'll have mcdonald's

same-store sales numbers as soon as they cross the wires. >> they'll be competing against noodle bars. >> a long-time supporter of mcdonald's. >> they have better friesz. >> we average -- i would say we average 1.5 visits per week. >> can i say the new thin fries or skinny fries or whatever they're called at burger king are actually pretty good. >> i don't go to burger king. i have 0 visits to burger king per week. >> at an airport is when i eat those french fries. >> a strange thing to get you into a fast food place. >> it's a strange thing to get me into an airport. >> in new york city you have better things to do than eat fast food. that's why you live there. >> at teterboro, they don't usually have the fast food. >> most places you go are owned by that danielle guy. >> he owns a lot of places.

>> even takeout. >> you're thinking the shake shack. >> you need to show me around. i'll show you around jersey. let's get a check on energy and currency markets. kevin, you know, i look at oil and i'm wondering when -- i don't know why gasoline seems to go down quicker than oil. it seems stuck. when does the natural gas, the abundantly cheap natural gas start have-to-have an effect on the entire complex and energy just gets cheaper. >> i think we're a ways from connecting natural gas prices to world oil prices to bring crude down. right now it's going the other way. the cold is pulling products up, because natural gas has been tight. folks are turning to alternative heating fuels where they have to in the east and where they can't have gas they're buying propane. as you know, there's a shortage in the midwest.

i don't think natural gas will be a substitute for transportation anytime soon. >> someday maybe. >> maybe. >> we need to do the infrastructure but it's a chicken, egg thing with the trucks? >> yes. trucks will take some time. the people who can do it are doing it now on the capital they have. probably locomotives are a ways out still. some of the intercoastal waterway traveling barges and also some of the shorter run ships could be the next route. we're not not talking about a lot of substitution. >> i see a lot of teslas around. i always notice them. they look great. if they were 40 grand everyone would be driving a tesla. >> tesla, what they've proven is there isn't a market for electric vehicles but rich people like nice stuff. you will see the diffusion of hybrid electric technology going into mainstream vehicles. it's creating a secular wave of

efficiency that we're on the leading edge of. >> we'll watch that. nick, when you talk currencies, it's all about interest rates and everything else. i guess i'm not sure how to interpret what's been happening, with us tapering, the dollar should be getting stronger. we're the best house in a bad neighborhood. so why aren't we at 120 on euro yet? >> i think part of the reason, as you say, a lot of people aren't sure how to interpret things partly because of the jobs number we got on friday. we should give tapering in march but at least they've brought that question up for discussion. on the other side, we had the european central bank which some thought might ease policy in the event they didn't. we possibly won't get productivity until march. >> and how does that figure into everything? >> right now we're getting a little bit of -- we've had a

huge run in the dollar yen from 80 up to 100. at the start of the year, we're seeing a correction in the nikkei and the japanese equity markets and the dollar yen. we're getting strength in the japanese currency. we're seeing correction. at the start of the year, this consumption tax hike has created uncertainly for japan. it's expected in april. i think we'll be around those levels. we'll start weakening again later in the year. >> gentlemen, that's our trading block. we appreciate it. we'll keep it brief. see you later. >> thanks for having me. now let's get to the olympics and the quest for gold. michelle caruso-cabrera joins us from sochi. you tried to learn something that we tried to learn in davos. >> we're talking about curling. cnbc, we carry curling during the olympics. get this, curling of all the sports at the winter olympics gets more tv coverage than any

other sport. in part, because the matches are 2 1/2 hours long. they have a beautiful new facility here. they call it the ice cube. these guys have incredibly flexible legs. it's unbelievable. every time we show curling on the olympics on cnbc, curling goes up in the united states. if you're interested in curling, there are plenty of places you can do it in the united states. plainfield curling club of new jersey where members come to throw, sweep, even grab a beer. holy smokes, these are heavy. these stones cost the club a cool 5 a bucks a pop. they guide so easily across the ice. this is how it's done. setting them in motion -- [ laughter ] it's kind of hard. >> okay. that's not how it's done. >> reporter: sweeping -- >> don't forget to breathe. >> reporter: tiring for the novice. the members of the plainfield

curling club tell us after the winter games they see a big increase in the number of people who want to join the curling craze. an olympic boost but curling is far from becoming a professional sport. mark simple is president of the club. >> there are curlers who do curl on a weekly basis that participate in tournaments that do pay out money but, again, everybody has a day job. >> reporter: most curling is done with clubs in the united states but many curlers hope it becomes big enough and as common as bowling allies. in minnesota they're trying a full-on business although it's still not for profit. curling may not be big business yet but wall streeters love the sport. mark says it's because it's a thinker's game. >> there's a lot of strategy involved. it's not just throwing a rock down the ice and sweeping that rock. you usually have to think a couple of shots ahead. it's almost like chess. >> reporter: a game of chess where a lot of yoga would help. those stones are heavy, okay?

42 pounds. 5:00 p.m., right after closing bell eastern time, that's when you'll be able to see the first match on cnbc, usa men's team faces off against norway. tune in just to see norway's pants. okay? they are some of the most interesting in the field. coming up later on "power lunch" we'll tell you what some of the real day jobs are, what they do when they're not curling on the ice. these guys have to work for a living. they're not like the figure skaters that get sponsored. >> that looked harder than the version we learned. >> ours were heavy but you didn't have to skate the whole way down. what was the version we learned? i forget what it was called. >> they're very heavy. the ice is slippier. it's very hard i notice. >> it's like boccie ball on ice. >> that's curling light. >> curling light. that's not curling. >> you were supposed to pick it

up off the ground. >> i think they called it the bavarian version. you try to push off and it weighs 40 pounds and it's easy to use your footing like you saw michelle. >> it helps if you do yoga. >> it's like shuffleboard. if you don't use the sweeping thing -- what's that called -- if you don't use that it's like shuffleboard. >> i love shuffleboard. one of the great sports. >> norway's pants, got to see norway's pants. >> that's a sport in boca. coming up, the art of saying -- michelle, thank you by the way. a great report. the art of saying sorry or the sorry state of saying sorry. this week, it is tim armstrong's turn. a couple of weeks ago it was new jersey governor chris christie. find out why not all apologies are the same. as we head to a break, check out the futures. red arrows across the board, dow looking like it will open 34

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last week we did see gains

on thursday and friday. it made it the best week of the year so far for the markets. this morning, there are red arrows. dow futures right now, down 34 points below fair value. s&p futures off by 3 points, the nasdaq down by 3 points as well. tim armstrong announcing a reversal of changes for the company's 401(k) plan and apologizing to employees over the weekend after a string of bad publicity last week. public apologies were the subject of a column i wrote for deal book last week as we launched a new movement called apology watch. to make sure apologies are more than just theater, they're authentic. we have the general counsel of the firm as well. we are talking about apologies and whether they're authentic. you're the legal side of this. the liability related to saying you're sorry, which can be a great pr move, is huge on the

other end. how often does a company actually come, we want to say we're sorry and you say you just can't? >> lawyers sometimes are -- >> i want to know if you're responsible for people who want to say sorry but can't. >> an apology is saying in some way we've fallen short. there's an admission within an apology. that makes lawyers nervous. >> that legalese, those. the idea you have to think before you say you're sorry. >> i think you should always think before you say you're sorry. in essence what you're saying is we somehow fall short. >> i want to give you a different example. doug seidman, wrote a book called "how." in 2007. in the book he talks about doctors who had huge liability, lots of cases, because they

never said sorry. they actually found over time, if they said sorry when they made a mistake, they were less cases. do you buy that? >> i think that's right. i think in every situation what you have to evaluate is do you really understand what the standard is you fell short from? and do you have a way to demonstrate to the people who are injured that you're going to make them whole? if you don't have those things, those are the apologies that are least effective. i think in situations like doctors, the ones you talked about, you can articulate what it is, those are the apologies that work best. >> it takes it so far away from what we consider polite behavior. if you step on somebody's toe, you say you're sorry. >> doesn't love mean never having to say you're sorry? >> no. >> yes, it does. i've been saying that forever since ryan o'neal said it. >> no, no, no. >> i come from the midwest where people say they're sorry. >> that's the policy among the

two of us, we never have to say we're sorry. >> i hate hearing it broken down. >> how often do you find a time when the ceo comes to you and says i want to say i'm sorry, i want to make a statement where i say we're sorry but you say that's legitimately a bad idea. what do you tell them to do instead? >> i think in all of these situations, your scenario where the ceo is coming to you, a lot of it depends on how strongly does someone feel they need to say they're sorry. the lawyer's job is to balance and to let them know what the issues are relating to do that. and part of it is to make sure -- >> that's what brings the insincerity. the idea that i have to talk to a lawyer before i say i'm sorry. >> we're in the pc police with twitter and everything else. it is hypersensitivity that we're talking about. the entitlement we have now in the united states is that no one in their life ever needs to be offended ever again.

is that the latest entitlement? some of these guys get railroaded into apologies they didn't mean because they weren't trying to offend anyone but everyone is offended. >> you don't want to have the other person standing in the other room saying i'm hurt, too. part of the lawyer's job is that you're apologize fog for the right thing. you don't want to have the room and the town say -- >> do you understand the idea of sincerity. and how it lacks sincerity, if i get a team involved in what my apology should seem. that's what andrew is pointing to now, we don't believe all the apologies. >> people apologize, let's say you use an expression that in in way -- i'm thinking of something in particular. they'll apologize. it almost brings -- admitting you did something wrong when it was just the pressure that was brought to bear on you by something that wasn't wrong in

the first place. now you're conceding that you were wrong. >> if you come up with a clever way -- this is going to sound horribly insincere and cynical. to tell a client how they can effectively say they're sorry without the liability of saying they're sorry? >> i think anytime you say you're sorry without in some way addressing the harm you've caused, it's not going to be effective. because the people who were hurt are going to say it's insincere. >> the other question is -- >> i'm still injured. >> if you're chris christie in that whole crazy thing, do you say i'm not going to say anything. give me 30 days. i need a 30-day period to investigate all of this around me. i'm not going to say i'm sorry, whether this was right or wrong. even if he thought he was totally clean. then what happens in the public eye? does the public say there's clearly something wrong. >> in the chris christie example, it's important, if you come out too quickly and the

facts keep changing all you've reinforced is the notion i'm not in control, i don't really know what's going on. wha part of what you do is make sure the person pauses and gets to the point where they will be inseer. >> in a social media world where people every ten seconds are coming after you, how do you get ahead of that? nobody will have the patience for those types of periods to get your head around it. >> you have to wait and not respond reflexively. then you get the reaction that it's not sincere. >> i'm sorry we have so many lawyers in this country. how many lawyers do we have? that's what i'm sorry for. how many in japan? 1 out of 1,200 people or something. we have 1 out of 12 here. >> i shouldn't take this personally. we have to go to a commercial break. we have to cut this segmessio s

short. thank you for being here. it was fascinating. join this whole conversation on twitter if you volcano an apology you should watch, do @squawkcnbc. >> i just said i'm sorry. >> we're going to record that and play it over and over again. when we come back, retail and the weather, if shoppers can't get to the mail, what will that mean for the nation's retailers? we'll check out the winners and the losers.

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our guest host this hour has been bruce kasman, the chief economist at jpmorgan. we've been talking about how the market bounced back last week and is maybe looking for better news. you think they're going to get that this week? >> not really. i don't think we'll have disastrous news. i think what we'll see in the industrial production report, the retail sales report is the sense that the economy did lose momentum. i think we're seeing it in the global numbers. we had a weak japan consumption number overnight. i don't think this is fundamentally something to get worried about. i think we had optimisming building towards the end of last year. we're taking it out as we're seeing that was overdoing it. >> what happened? >> on upside we had an inventory story, consumer numbers, there was probably a mobile device part of that. wealth effects running through the system. i'm not sure i understand all of it. we were surprised by the numbers

last year. what we didn't understand all of it, it didn't align with our fundamentals. we said most likely it would run back. we're running back, now we'll take out the upside risk and worry about the downside. i think when we come out of here two, three months from now, we'll feel the economy is doing well. we're at the point of seeing that slowing. we'll recognize that's what we're going to see in the next two weeks. >> my guess would be is if we do see weak numbers with the ip, the retail sales, the market's reaction will be to sell off some of that news. your advice is to maybe take it with a grain of salt? >> we faded the bounce, now we fade the dip. that's the right message, recognizing you always can be wrong when you're watching this. we want to be careful watching this stuff. i think that's the right message. >> i know you said you think weather has been overplayed in all of this. we've seen lousy weather that's continued through this month. do you think that will mean this trend of weaker number stretches for at least another month or

so. >> to some degree. januarys with a bad month. it wasn't worse than december in the aggregate. the west coast of the u.s. has been warm and dry. to some degree we're overstating weather. construction and the payroll report was strong. i think there is a weather effect in december and january. it's complicated. there's cold weather and storms and affect things differently. i think we're overplaying it if we're paying attention to weather here. i think there's more of a story if the economy isn't growing 3.5%, 4%. it's been great talking to you this morning. >> thank you. has the recent market volatility put the brakes on deal making? glenn youngkin is going to tell us if there are opportunities opening up. plus, a fresh read on corporate confidence. and aol's chief, tim armstrong doing damage control after a benefit change and some comments about distressed babies. it all created a firestorm of

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janet yellen about to take the hot seat. we have a preview.

wicked weather holding back the consumer. >> literally the consumer has been frozen. >> which retailers are getting frostbite. >> more fireworks from the olympics. not those fireworks. the games are in full swing in sochi. carl is going to break out the vodka. "squawk box" begins right now. the reason i'm doing this, mcdonald's is reporting same-store sales up 0.6%. they had forecast flat and relatively flat. and i think people are looking for 0.2%. is that correct? it was up 0.6%. the u.s. is important all the time. >> the u.s. is worse than we

thought. >> it was supposed to be down 1.7. >> it came in down 3.3. >> europe was better than expected. up 2% and asia-pacific, middle east and africa was up 5.4%. they were looking for a gain of up 1.1%. that really helped them out quite a bit. >> we'll see. >> across the united states mcdonald's is focused on regaining customers. >> global is up 1.2. >> oh, yes, yes, yes. versus up 0.2. >> versus estimate of 0.2. that's amazing. all those other places totally offset u.s. >> apmea, asia-pacific, middle east and africa, that's a huge

beat. >> is apmea enough to make that much of a difference. >> the beat was -- >> what was it that you have for apmea. >> up 5.4% versus 1.1% estimate. those gains were driven in part by a shift in the timing of the chinese new year. and the prior year there were issues about supply chain issues. >> it's not going to count the same way. >> in the end they did -- you know what, the number you were looking at up 0.6% in constant currencies. >> that's also with the apmea numbers are different, too. it was up 10% in constant currency. after all is said and done, it's up 33 cents. that's a current quote.

that's the last time it traded. 91.35 bid. i still think u.s. matters. >> i do, too. they don't give too many details about what's going on other than saying -- >> tough to innovate. >> they've been on a long run of strong comp store sales. >> this he have. then it started slowing. six months ago. they had coffee. they tried to bring the mcrib back, you do the fruit and yogurt stuff, chicken wings. >> they talk about how many items you had. it's hard to get people out the door quickly when you have that many different items. they're looking at it. they say that's part of what they're addressing. >> if you look at headlines this morning, a battle is shaping up between carl icahnen aa major proxy advisory firms. iss is recommending shareholders vote against the buy-back proposal for apple. in a report, iss says in part the apple board has returned the bulk of its u.s.-generated cash to shareholders via aggressive

stock buy backs and payouts in light of these good faith efforts, the board's latitude should not be constricted by a shareholder resolution that would micromanage the allocation process. icahn said he'll be making a remark from the opening bell. bitcoin dropping sharply. they are seeing price volatility after major exchange mtgox blamed its ongoing technical issues on bitcoin. >> what is that, mt. gox? >> i guess. >> mt. gox, withdrawals were halted over the weekend. in a statement, mt. gox said it would resume bitcoin withdrawals to outside wallets once the issue has been properly addressed. also, george soros's quantum endowment fund has been named the world's most successful hedge fund. it gained $5.5 billion last year, bringing total gains to

$39.6 billion. soros stepped down in 2011. a new study ranks the top 20 hedge fund managers by net gain in 2013. quantum overtook ray dalio of bridgewater. >> is that now the biggest fund? or just returns? >> don't know. >> okay. we also have the corporate talker of the morning. we talked about it before. but we will continue because a lot of people keep chattering. aol, the company has now abandoned its plan to delay its contributions to employee 401(k)s until the end of the year, the reversal coming after workers complained during a meeting following the company's quarterly results. ceo tim armstrong suggested that two, quote, distressed babies were the reasons for the controversial plan. the mother of one of the babies speaking out on cnbc news. >> it was sort of impossible to process that he was talking about my daughter who was home with me at that time. you know, to hear her labeled a distressed baby who cost the

company too much money and, therefore, the ceo had to make the decision to cut retirement benefits. it just seemed like so completely dehumanizing. >> armstrong has now apologized for bringing up specific health care examples during a town hall meeting in which the retirement plan was discussed. >> the biggest thing for me in this whole story is, the level of snark that the huffington post is capable of towards ceos. across the board. >> right. >> and here they are with their own ceo in a position where this is the most politically incorrect and -- the lefties and progressives on this story, this is what they were made to feel revulsion about. this is their poster child for how they should be outwrathed. they can't do it full force. it's perfect. i love it. >> we have to get to the next segment. >> i got on e-mail from a viewer who said isn't it better that

the ceo talked in specifics about what their true costs were rather than generalities because we never believe them when they say -- >> there's a question of whether this was a hipaa violation for outing people and saying i spent a million dollars on your child. there are all types of concerns, not to mention the idea of it's so offensive, putting these families on the spot when they've been through enough. >> the writers at huffington post with their kid gloves, the ceo tim armstrong, when in other situations it's full bore, these scum bag ceos doing this and that. we'll see. >> maybe it's possible they'll are a column like this. >> the market is off to a volatile start this year. that's not spooking the carlyle group. the company made three acquisitions since january.

carl youngkin. p/e firms usually have to buy low and sell high. are you getting out of something, hoping it's a good position to be in? or there may not be opportunities because everything is bid up. what do people like you want? right in the middle, not too hot, not too cold? you can buy good things and sell things you bought five years ago? >> absolutely. we find today's market to be a really good market for private equity. last year was a year where everybody made money. s&p revenues grew at under 1%, earnings grew at 6% and the market was up 30%. so it was a year where buying things was challenging. we find this year the market is more volatile because people have expectations that may actually be a bit overly optimistic coming into the year and now all of a sudden everybody is being brought back down to ground. that it's going to be a 2.5%, or 3% year for the economy.

the markets adjusting to that. and for us, that creates an opportunity to buy really good companies. >> so it's not -- you're not -- you'd rather be buying now than selling stuff that you bought five years ago? >> well, we're doing both right now. last year was predominantly a selling year for us in the u.s. and less buying. this year, starting out the year, we've actually been buying more as you highlighted the two most recent acquisitions of an itw subsidiary, industrial packaging and a j & j subsidiary in diagnostics. >> there isn't anyone that can't see the potential in energy around the world, but i guess here in the united states, too, that's got to be an active area, right? >> absolutely. it's one of our core four areas for the year. it has everything to do with the capital expenditures required in the energy arena, not to go find hydrocarbons but in fact to exploit them and transport them.

we think energy globally is a great place to invest. >> what are the other three? health care, consumer products and industrial, i guess. >> there you go. we also -- >> those are my three. those are the same you have? >> those are the same we have. we've been buying the j & j diagnostics business, itw's industrial packaging business and of course, as you all saw with our ceo david rubenstein, beats. globally we see interesting opportunities. just in the mcdonald's results this morning you saw the strength of the global markets and their results. we see the same opportunities. europe emerging markets and particularly china. we invested over a billion dollars both in china and in europe last year, because we see the same kinds of opportunities. pockets of growth, sometimes masked by an overarching view that things aren't so good and

for us, that's a great time to invest. >> is it safe to say -- i was kidding. those were yours. >> those are ours. >> i stole them right from what i was reading, those weren't mine although i agree, i think you're short smart. in europe, is it safe to say suddenly spain looks better to you than france? because spain has been through more and are they actually doing some things structurally with trying to deal with the labor issue? >> it is in fact a great place to invest right now. >> really? >> we're seeing the uk and germany move into real strength to strength. italy and spain through a fair amount of restructuring would be the most competitive from an economic standpoint and a growth standpoint, recovery standpoint. you're right, france has kind of been the one area that hasn't shown much improvement. france didn't decline as much as the other regions in europe but it really hasn't improved.

the uk and germany continue to provide great opportunities just from a pure strength standpoint and southern europe really is a recovery play. >> is it coincidence in france or hollande and the tam and regulatory and entrenched labor issues there? >> i do think that part of the benefit of the spanish restructuring has been a resetting of their cost structure. all of a suddenen from a competitive standpoint, they are really unique. and france just hasn't had a chance to do that or has not done it. >> they might need an election to do that. poland. i like both countries a lot. i'm glad to hear that. it might be time for a trip. we appreciate it, glenn youngkin. >> you've covered all the bases. >> was that really good. >> you do a good job. >> i think glenn did a good job. i'm just a conduit. glenn youngkin from carlyle, thank you. within we come back, our --

are retailers in a deep freeze? the olympics game have started and the vodka is flowing. carl kint nkn quintanilla will g us. >> we'll recap all of the olympic action, joe, becky, andrew, we've officially bought you your first bottles of russian vodka. we will crack these babies open and talk about the spirits business, too when "squawk box" continues, live from sochi. spokesperson: we decided to settle this. a steel cage death match of midsize sedans. the volkswagen passat against all comers. turbocharged engines against...engines. best in class rear legroom against other-class legroom. but then we realized. consumers already did that. twice. huh. maybe that's why nobody else showed up. how does one get out of a death cage? avo: the volkswagen passat, starting at $21,945.

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from the weekend and carl quintanilla joins us live from the games. you don't have a monitor? >> i have a monitor. oh, yes. >> that heat mizer. >> i've seen you with your hair on fire before but this takes

the cake. >> on fire. >> that's hot. >> did you hear paris, that's hot. >> that's hot. >> this is a cool gig for you. we have to hear everything. you're bringing out the vodka, too. give it to us. >> all right. obviously you know day five of the competition, a nice start for team usa over the weekend, guys. but the big news from last night was obviously figure skating. i don't know if you got to watch. russia did take gold in the team competition, this is their first gold of the games, 15-year-old yulia lipnitskaya, old enough to compete by 26 days, unbelievable. vladimir putin in the house. the u.s. takes bronze and canada takes silver. big news over the weekend was the slopestyle, team u.s. took gold in both men's and women's. 20-year-old sage kotsenburg, the first american to win the first gold medal of the winter games since 1952. and 23-year-old jamie anderson

won for the women's. we're going to talk to both of them later on this morning. medal couldn't the goes like this, norway, guys, a country with 5 million people, is in first place with 7. canada, united states and russia tied with 5. netherlands which did not make the top ten in vancouver is in fifth place with 4. tonight, speed skating with shani davis, the combined with julia mancuso. and biathlon, the only event the u.s. has never medaled in. of course, on cnbc beginning at 5:00 p.m. eastern time, curling which we'll talk a lot more about later on today. so in between seeing events, as you mentioned, joe, we have had a chance to get around town. you mentioned the vodka we got. take a look at this big box retailer we went to idea. they literally sell hundreds of different brands of vodka.

vodka is the number one spirit in the world. and russia is the number one consumer, 14 liters per person per year. the u.s. is second. we don't even do two liters per person per year. this was an unbelievable store. it was like a walmart but their liquor section was like something out of heaven. this one is called russian standard, about $40. this is the premium stuff. this is the good stuff. this is something called green mark. about $7 a barrel. i've asked our producers to get shot glasses so we could all partake. maybe we'll do that later on in the show or the week. >> did you say $7 a barrel? >> a bottle. $7 for this bottle, yes. which is still pretty good. >> have you been -- i mean, i try to figure out why they drink so much. have you been to some of the surrounding areas? you might tend to drink a little bit, too, over there. >> you might drink a little bit.

did you see mary carillo's piece on siberia last night? unbelievable parts of this country. all of siberia, 38 million people in a spice two times as wide as the u.s. gets lonely in the wintertime. >> pass the vodka. what was the russian gold medalist? i want andrew to listen and i want you to say that again and i want you to say it. say it again. carl, it was so good. you must be practicing a lot. >> oh, yes. yulia lipnitskaya. 15 years old. >> yulia lipnitskaya. >> andrew? >> you will never have this job. >> no, never. >> or cover tennis of any kind. >> tennis is out. >> i would like to see andrew in rio. i'd like to see that. >> i'm game. i want the bosses to know i'm game. rio bound i am. >> they are olympic medalists, the snowboarder, sage, i heard he was creating a huge problem

for the translators there because he was using terms they never heard of. >> gnarly. >> spice. spice. we'll talk to him later on in the 10:00 a.m. we'll hear from him. yes, you can use spice as a good for anything. like that chick is spice or that run was spice. >> but they can't translate that into 50 other languages. >> yes. he's introducing the u.s. to this word. i can't imagine what the rest of the world is look. >> it's like phat, i called ben white phat. >> p-h-a-t. >> exactly. i never heard the end of it. he's cool. he does cool stuff. >> he has his sweater on for a moment. >> oh, look. it's okay to drink now. what time is it? >> i have to get through "power lunch." >> what time is it over there, carl? >> it is almost -- what time is

it here, almost 6:00 p.m. >> oh, my god. i'm surprised you're not -- >> he might have started. >> he might have. that would explain the segment. >> thank you for being with us. drink up a little bit. >> thank you. no lack of snow and ice for much of the nation but will that mean a lack of sales for the nation's retailers? we'll get a forecast for that sector in the next half hour. there's a new box office champ. we'll tell you who that is. a little bit of a hint. "squawk" in a moment. (vo) you are a business pro.

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welcome back, everybody. in hollywood news, the "lego" movie winning the box office with 69.1 million in ticket sales. the animated film beat the george clooney world war ii film, "the monuments men." a top chinese regulator directly asked jim my dimon for a favor, to hire a young job applicant. "the new york times" reporting that the applicant was a friend of the family regulator. the times reporting that dimon is not suspected of any wrongdoing. during our conversation in davos i asked jamie dimon about the so-called princeling's

investigations. >> we're trying to do the right thing. everyone has to look back at the rules. not just banks by the way. people hire ex-government officials, hire sons and daughters of companies. they give them proper jobs and don't violate american foreign corrupt practices act. we have to create a safe harbor for that so you don't end up getting punished. >> this example becomes more complicated this particular person who was hired apparently has the right background, went to nyu. had an experience as an interpreter. i believe that's what she was initially hired for. she's moved up the ranks and has apparently got great reviews. if you're talented and you get the job through somebody else, then how do you think about it? >> i don't know. is this almost over? the princeling investigation, do you think? is it just starting. >> i don't know whether they'll be able to bring a case. one of the things i wonder about this, all of this material gets thrown out there, in part i think because the prosecutors

want to be able to prove they're working or doing something. i think this will be a hard case to bring ultimately. >> there will be money that changes hands and it will go away. >> case gets settled. if you're suggesting everybody is bribing everybody. >> not bribes. it will be settled. still to come, is the new fed chair janet yellen about to enter hostile territory? that's coming next. right now, take a look at the equity futures as we head to a break. we needed 30 new hires for our call center.

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that's my phone. hey. [ female announcer ] the x1 entertainment operating system, only from xfinity. tv and internet together like never before. welcome back to "squawk box," checking on some stocks in the news this morning. dow component mcdonald's reported a 1.2% increase in same-store sales last month, beating estimates of a 0.2% increase. mcdonald's beat estimates in the europe and apmea regions but suffered a drop that was twice as big as analysts had thought. it's messed up numbers from currency fluctuations. we have two numbers for a lot. hasbro reported quarterly profit of $1.12 a share. that was below expectations. and revenue was also below. weakness in the boys category, weighing in on its shares.

and yelp shares getting a boost on reports of a new partnership with yahoo!. "the wall street journal" says the deal is designed to help yahoo! improve its local search results. >> okay. let's talk about janet yellen. fed chair janet yellen is slated to testify on capitol hill tomorrow morning for the first time since taking office. let's get some thoughts on what to expect, especially after friday's lackluster jobs report. joining us now to talk about, katheri katherine mann, finance administrator. steve liesman is also at the table. greg, i'm going to start with you if i could. >> sure. >> is there any sense she would address the issue of tapering in a meaningful way during this conversation tomorrow? >> they're betting she will not, andrew. classically, fed chairmans don't like to get ahead of the entire open market committee when they testify unless they more or less

had an agreement to do so at the last meeting. that was two weeks ago. the only thing that's changed is we've had a bit more turmoil in the emerging markets and one more employment report. the best i would expect is a slight uptick in the tone of optimism since the last statement. >> katherine to the extent she can say anything, what would you be looking for then? >> i would be looking for her to really try to clarify what their strategy is for taper is. i disagree a little bit with greg. i think she is going to be giving some leeway by the fomc to apply her communications strategy and clarify exactly what they plan to do. i don't see them doing some strategic tapering, you know, changing, for example, the amount they buy of mortgages versus the amount they buy of u.s. treasuries although i think that would be the right thing to do. she won't be doing something like that.

but i think she will be trying to clarify this balance of are we looking at gdp, are we looking at employment? are we looking at inflation? i think she'll be focusing on that tri-lemma issue they have. >> let's get into a little more detail which might make some fun for tomorrow, after she speaks and we can play back your answer right here. if i'm the congressman or representative, i say miss chairman -- madam chair, what do you make of the last two weak employment reports? do they give you concern and do they cause you to, perhaps, rethink your strategy of tapering? what is the response and then let's talk about from there, the market's response to her response. >> i think first of all she emphasizes the noisiness of the data, the fact like all of us have been talking about, the weather has been a big factor. another factor she might have referred to is we might have a bit of an inventory cycle going

here, where things got too bulled up in the second half of last year and we're getting pay back for that. the right policy response is for her to emphasize the fact that everything they're doing is forecast dependent. they'll take a close look at this data and that tapering the pace of quantitative easing is not on a preset course. if i'm looking for deviation -- >> i'll stop you right there, greg. that's the one, right there, where she says it's not on a preset course and katherine, could she come in and chime in with the idea and we could alter the taper in course if this turns out to be a slowdown? >> absolutely. >> katherine. >> with regard to the two weak unemployment reports, i'm not surprised at those reports. if you look in depth of the employment components of the ism and other, sort of, in the weeds kind of data, there's no surprise those employment numbers are weak. i do not think it's a

weather-driven set of weak employment reports. if you look at business investment, there's nothing happening on business investment. until we see something on that, we'll continue to see what are very weak unemployment numbers. >> everything you're saying is suggesting she would want to taper the taper. >> i just want to add one thing. >> yes, i think she's -- as i said, in my view what she needs to focus on is strengthening the component of credit easing that is particularly targeted at small business, because those continue to be the weak category and the way you can do that is by maintaining the taper for mortgages, because that's how small businesses finance themselves, off of home equity lines of credit and continue to taper on the u.s. treasuries. because that market is what is goosing up the stock market, which we don't need to do any more of. >> don't you think the bigger conversation right now is around not the tapering of quantitative

easing but what do they do with the forward guidance on short-term interest rates? that's the pressing question. we're down to 6.6% on the unemployment rate. they said 6.5% is the mark where they're considering higher rates. >> i don't agree with that. >> don't you think, steve, they need to start walking back from that? >> i think they have. when i look at market expectations as judged in our cnbc fed survey, end of commercial, we have not seen very much in the way of differences in terms of what the market expects and what the fed wants the market to expect. i think they went to that softer language when they did the taper. and i think the market's comfortable with that squishy, it's a threshold, not a trigger, we could do this later. what i think is most interesting about tomorrow is the potential volatility around her comments, which is whatever she says, it's the first time she has said it as chair. when she -- >> that's a great point. >> i don't know where the marginal buyer in the market stands. if i knew that, i'd be a wealthy

person. because you can go into the market expecting something and the fed would meet it but if the marginal buyer doesn't expect it, you have an outside change. i don't know if the marginal buyer is ready for janet yellen to say something along the lines of, well, we could potentially not taper or something like that, even though there's no real change in policy in that. >> that's a great point. i was struck by her testimony during her confirmation hearing that she managed to keep her cards close to her vest, managed to say a lot of things that were supportive of both people who were hawkish and people who were dovish. she she feel, as confirmed chairman, the authority to push strongly in one direction. by gut is that she pushes in a dovish direction. >> the reason why she would be pushing in a dovish direction is because on the inflation front and on the gdp front they continue to underperform relative to their forecast projections. >> right. >> in fact, if you go back and

lack over the projections over the last couple of years they're on target with respect to the unemployment rate. they've gone back and said we don't actually like the number that we see, because we don't like the underpinnings of it. traditionally we've sort of focused as fed watchers, before we focused on unemployment, we were looking at inflation and gdp growth. mostly inflation. on that score, you know, we're still way away from the 2% target. so she can come out and be dovish, very easily. >> right. >> we will see what she has to say, whether she's as dovish as people suspect. >> katherine, greg, thank you, steve still here at the table. >> you don't view yourself as a wealthy person. >>? i do, actually. >> it's all about money with you? >> my point was -- >> look at who you get to work with every day and what you do for a living. >> you who hires a ski instructor. >> right. for my kids.

and if you look at the entire planet in terms of just income and wealth you don't feel like you're a wealthy -- >> that's not my point. >> i would view you as a very wealthy person. >> i'm lucky. >> let's leave it at that. you misspoke then. >> i would be a very -- i think i used three veries. i can't forget the fed. i know what the fed will do but i don't know how the market will react. >> we'll all wealthy with our family life. >> andrew, help me. >> thank you for being here. >> i don't want to be a boat with you to throw me a life line. >> and complaining about your will the in life when you come on here. weather woes for the retailers with much of the nation covered with snow, shoppers aren't exactly rushing to the malls. who's winning and who's losing? thanks to the frozen consumer. and tomorrow on "squawk box," an exclusive interview with facebook's sheryl sandberg. more "squawk" right after this.

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welcome back to "squawk box." the futures right now on the session after looking worse earlier, now down about 13 points or so. great day on friday in the face of the jobs report, which looked like it was going to impact things negatively and then just accelerated right into the close. ten-year right now, which is also below where it was when that came out, 2.69. right around 2.7%.

check out gold today. gold is 1274. it's rebounded from those lows that we saw at the end of last year, beginning of this year when we thought it might be headed below 1200. now it's pushing 1300. >> severe weather conditions across the country putting a deep freeze on sales for retail and travel vees this winter season. dallas fed president richard fisher talking about the frozen consumer on "squawk box" friday. >> literally, the consumer has been frozen in december and january, three of the four census districts in the united states have been under ice or snow. so to the degree that the number, whether it meets expectations or not, or holds back, i think is largely affected or significantly affected by weather in these two months. >> joining us right now from new york, with more on his outlook is jpmorgan's retail hard lines analyst. chris, how big of an impact has this had. >> it's had a huge impact.

it's wreaked havoc to numbers. there have been some names that have benefited but in large part, the consumer has been inside, not going outside and shopping. the consumers are holed up right now and inside. >> we've continued to see snow here in the northeast. >> it has continued, i would say on the positive side you've seen home depot and lowe's, auto parts retailers, auto zone and advanced auto parts benefit as you think about snow removal, heating, wood pellets, stoves, for auto parts, batteries, wipers and windshield wash. that's lifted their benefit. we expect the benefit to continue for the auto retailers. dick's preannounced positive numbers, north face sales, a boot season. for everyone else it's been bad and it will stay bad right now. on the negative side, who's getting hit the hardest are people are who seasonably high

penetration. gnc and vitamin shoppes are getting hit hard. >> are those sales sales that can be caught up down the road or are those sales once they're gone, they're gone. >> it depends on the sector. it's generally a mix. i would say, you know, with someone like the vitamin retailers, you would say it's 50/50. you'll have a catch up later on. the earlier spring breaks in february it lifts everybody's business, because people go out there, they start buying apparel, start jogging and getting in shape and thinking about the upcoming season. >> i would think for some of the apparel stores that it's really just a bust because the season moves and the clothing, you know, you have to get rid of it so you have to offer it at deep discounts. >> that's right. the earlier that it breaks in february and march, the better it is for full price. one of the problems with the cold weather is the consumer didn't show up for three weeks in december.

they showed up in the week of christmas. week after christmas, to heavy discounts as retailers try to drive traffic. again, to your point, if you're not selling it now, you'll sell it later at a much lower margin. >> you think about weather and you think about it being a temporary phenomenon. if you try and strip away the weather, how is the health of the consumer? >> that's a great question. i think as you reflect back on these holidays, people say the consumer weakened into christmas. that's not the case. walmart and target have basically missed same-store sales since christmas of 2012. we had a consumer that's been limping in, limping all year and ended up being impacted by weather. retailers panicked, put everything on sale and they got hit on the sales line as well as the margin line. >> you don't see any end in sight? >> excuse me. >> you don't see an end in sight for the troubles with the

consumer? >> i think as we get into the april time frame you'll see a break in the weather pattern according to bill kirk at weather trends international. and she will come out and shop when she needs to. right now, you don't need to. >> all right, chris, thank you for joining us. >> have a great day. >> you, too. coming up, we'll check jim kramer's radar, find out which stores and stocks he's watching this morning. as we head to break, check out the price of crude. more "squawk" coming up next. fedex one rate. really makes my life easier. maybe a promotion is in order. good news. i got a new title. and a raise? management couldn't make that happen. [ male announcer ] introducing fedex one rate. simple, flat rate shipping with the reliability of fedex.

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welcome back to "squawk box." take a look at futures at this hour, see how things are setting themselves up ahead of the market open. dow looks like it would open down 21 points, nasdaq open down as well a point and a half off. s&p 500 down close to three points. expecting to hear from carl icahn before the bell, and i'll tell you why. iss recommending shareholders vote against the share buy-back proposal for apple. separately, sort of fun, strange, news, there's a new coffee shop you've got to check out in the l.a. area. might look familiar at a quick

glance. look again. there's the hat. a shop called dumb starbucks, it's staffed by two baristas and offer free coffee all weekend. starbucks says the company has nothing to do with the new shop but is looking no it. i don't know what kind of options, given that it's a parody and we discussed my ds and ts. >> it's not funny. >> no. i don't think they're referencing starbucks the brand itself. >> coincidence. >> i'm sure they're raking it in. this weekend for free but after a while -- >> they knew we'd talk about it. >> clever. is that a commercial venture? >> let's get to cramer. >> i don't know if parody can be a commercial parody's editorial issue in terms of a lawsuit. >> can use it -- >> maybe say they're sorry and apologize. see if it's authentic. >> cramer wants to talk about,

down to the new york stock exchange, jim cramer joins us now. we talked about apple earlier. i referenced you, jim, because, you know, you're ahead of me in your thinking. it's okay it's a dividend stock but explains a lot. >> i think it's a dividend stock until it as a react sellration of revenues. can't ask for more than a company buying hand over fist, having a good dividend, and certain points you have to say, they're doing their darn best. that's where i think apple is, i think it's still a buy. >> if you were to give one suggestion, what's the next thing? or do they just decide to try to beat android and penetrate the market for their existing stuff better than they have now? because a lot of people left that don't have an iphone, aren't they? >> there are, but they have to do something social that dazzles. i know they're not in favor of my endless preaching that they should buy netflix.

but i think that, in the end, if you're going to be a company that is at the cutting edge of computer you want to own the living room and you want to be a big factor in social, because even at twitter fell back last week, it still has a lot of buzz, facebook has big social, apple's left out of social. otherwise, look, they're doing a good job, i'm not sheer to criticize. >> i understand. a wonder the next big things is not the company that did the last big thing. no one thinks what does nokia have to do. we don't talk about what nokia's going to do from now on. will apple be the company that the microsoft, the company that didn't do the big thing and sort of is replaced by the next 23-year-old? >> i think that everybody who stands still does get replaced. i think that's the lesson of what happened with google oop think it's the lesson of facebook, twitter. yes, apple could have bought twitter, i believe, for maybe $20 billion, and it would be a different kind of story.

but, i know there were questions about whether or not twitter engagement has peaked. i don't think it has. the stock is expensive, but you've got to keep developing social, mobile, connectivity. these are where things are, not just buzzwords. >> ware in on tim armstrong and aol this morning? >> look, i think he apologized, came back, obviously -- i don't -- i agree with him on the 401(k), if you want people to stay, you do have to try to make it so they vest at the end of the year. i wish these hadn't been conflated. he's issued an apology, it was a mistake, and you know, you've been on apology watch, guy made a mistake, guy said, you know what? this was wrong to do. a woman did get the insurance, it's why people have insurance, that's terrific. hate to have anybody singled out as reason why your costs went up, that was a mistake, he took it back, i don't know what else to say? he made a mistake. >> what else? mcdonald's, another one, to try

to figure out what's the right move? >> europe -- this turn in europe. you mentioned it in spain and italy. this turn in europe is very significant, joe, i think that if we see auto sales going up, industrial going up there, might be able to make up for what looks to be a big chinese hiatus. i'm watching the shanghai market. i don't know, maybe china's going to come bark the lunar new year was a shutdown. mcdonald's's is one of europe and applaud the way they've come back. >> even the writer in "usa "says cvs still sells unhealthy stuff. i saw dornin, i was ribbing him, he likes to enjoy a cigar on the golf course. i said, i hope you're happy with your decision now you can't smoke a cigar on the golf course, because do what you say not what you do. >> dinner on friday was

fabulous. >> oh man. i don't know. i don't know. i don't know what to think 0 that. >> thanks. see you in a couple of minutes. up next, we have details on yahoo!'s latest partner and the ceo of vote dafone making an appearance on "squawk on the street." [ male announcer ] the new new york is open. open to innovation. open to ambition. open to bold ideas. that's why new york has a new plan -- dozens of tax free zones all across the state. move here, expand here, or start a new business here and pay no taxes for ten years... we're new york. if there's something that creates more jobs, and grows more businesses... we're open to it. start a tax-free business at startup-ny.com.

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welcome back to "squawk box." it's time for the stock of the day. >> stock of the day, yelp, shares rising on report yahoo! is partnering with the website to beef up local results in its search engine. "wall street journal" says marissa mayer unveiled news at an employee meeting friday. yahoo's! search engine will incorporate yell's listings and review the feature launched in coming weeks. do you use that, andrew?

>> if you're an apple person, it's used on the maps. i thought apple would buy yelp but haven't. >> we're going back and forth about the tim armstrong/aol situation. we're still going to think about this. not sure where we're going. >> join us tomorrow. right now it's time for "squawk on the street." ♪ happy birthday to you happy birthday to you ♪ ♪ happy birthday >> when you get as old as my partner, celebrate every one of them. good morning, welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm david faber with jim cramer. happy birthday. hear from carl as well at the olympics in sochi momentarily. happy birthday. >> thank you very much. >> stake a look at futures. happy to be here, not just for your birthday, i tonight know why. >> olympics exciting, isn't? i watched them all week