good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen. we start with some breaking news, ukraine leaders have reached a deal in order to stop the violence. after hours of negotiations, ukraine's president victor yanukovych reaching a deal to resolve the current crisis. let's get to jim maceda in moscow. he has the latest. jim. >> hi there. well, i had the chance to look at the hard copy of the draft deal containing the four key points. they include early elections, that is elections by december of this coming -- of this year, returning to the 2004 constitution. that is a constitution that had been completely gutted by victor yanukovych and skewed in the president's favor. that will now return a lot of

power to the parliament. an investigation of crimes committed over the past three months of the crisis, .fourth, the forming of the coalition government in ten days. but the three foreign ministers who brokered the deal are calling for caution. the polish minister is trying to remind everyone that what's being agreed to isn't initially. it's a draft. it's not a full blown signing and the draft is only a starting point. but that said, it certainly is a positive step forward. because that means the end of the conflict. back to you. >> jim, what does that mean just in terms of why this quick turn? we didn't expect to see this from the president at this point. we thought maybe backing from putin would give him more resolve to push forward. do you suspect russia was behind any of this, pushing him to do this? >> well, certainly. certainly the pressure is from -- first of all, pressure is from the eu and the united states.

people have been saying that those sanctions were cosmetic. they weren't. freezing assets, the likes of yanukovych government was very important because many of those people squirrelled away their fortunes in european banks. also in american banks. so that was very important. but also, it was the situation on the ground. things that 24 hours ago, people were killing each other, doesz died. yanukovych's situation was becoming more and more tenuous. and everyone including he knew it. the question in many people's minds now is the opposition leader. the open on sigz is split over the issue of yanukovych's resignation. you notice that there's no mention at all of that resignation in this four or five-point deal. and it was a key demand amongst the protesters, especially the

extremist right wing, if you will, group called right sector. they are doing much of the fighting yesterday, losing much of the blood on the square. so it looks like this deal is going to keep yanukovych in power for another year. and hard to believe that's going to go down well with the opposition. it's probably why, as we speak, the opposition leaders have gone to independent square to lay out the deal, explain it, perhaps discuss it with thousands of protesters who were there at the square. >> jim, i don't know, it seems like it's harder and harder to be an old style ironman from years ago. you shoot into a crowd of your own people and then the next day there's thousands of people. i mean, in this day and age, you can't do that any more, it seems like. and it seems like this coincided with the olympics. so putin is on the world stage and i can just see them going, you know, drat, because you

really can't do what you used to be able to do, it seems like, right? you cannot do that. >> well, you can't do it unless you're vladimir put yip, i suppose. he is the world's most influential leader. so yes, the -- i think the key thing to remember is while there's this apparent old style battle going on for influence between the west and russia, putin finds that's the most important point. as you speak to ukraine experts, they will tell you that's a false choice. ukrainians are trying to figure out who they are. they're in a situation where the country is economically so

unviable that neither russia nor the west could take it in. it is an unintegrateble, if you will, country. almost a failed state on that level unless there is major economic constitutional and political reform in that country. this is, perhaps, now a first step. but you're right, it's only a first step. there's so much -- so many who need to be won over. there's so much ill feeling, so much distrust amongst these people who are, after all, ukrainian. the country is so divided, it's hard to see this story going away or us losing interest in it and no longer covering it. it's going to away flash point for some time. back to you guys. >> jim maceda, we will check in with him later in the program. we will point out that the economic situation is getting more complicated in ukraine, too. this morning, standard & poors lowering ukraine's long-term debt rating from triple c plus

to ccc. they believe that this puts the government's capability to meet debt service at increasing risk and raises uncertainty regarding the continued provision of russia's continued support over 2014. they say default is more likely. >> c is pretty bad. >> triple c plus is not very good. >> weighing into junk. after everything that happened in the middle east and this day in age where everyone has access to the outside world, it's just people want certain things in their life. >> north korea has been one of the few places -- >> but putin, it's no -- i don't think it's coincidence this is happening during the olympics, either. he's over there, he's so out every day. the ukrainians decided this is -- i mean, it also was in terms of things came to a head,

but the pressure you can put on putin when he's on the world stage trying to look like this nice guy that's, you know, running the olympics. but people want the same thing. and you wonder how this plays out over the next 20 years in terms of all these places where you can't -- you're not even allowed to demonstrate without worrying about -- it's not even -- >> china. >> yeah. it's not even rubber bullets. sooner or later, people want the same thing and they've all got smartphones now and they're all seeing how this -- i don't know how it all plays out the. >> in the meantime, let's take a look at the markets. the nikkei rallying overnight. it was up 3% after wall street's lead of strong gains, too. you can see stocks in europe at this point are looking like they are trading. they're mixed. barely changed for most of these markets. you can see the dax is down by about 3 points. the ftse is up by about 15 points. here in the united states after the gains that we saw yesterday,

you do see green arrows once again. dow futures indicated up by just over 21 points above fair value. s&p up by just over 1.5% points. >> it's a problem child. the economy is in tatter. so with russia, it's like it's still ahead. you want to breathe whatever into it, you take them. no, you take them. hewlett packard, i want to look at like a three-month chart. 1840. is this whole year going to get below that? >> everything that you lost. >> there's the hewlett packard chart. on the rise in premarket trading. back to 30. it's doing already. reported first quarter profit at 90 cents a share, beating estimates by 6 cents. people had this company dead and buried. >> that's an amazing chart.

>> it is. hp raised the lower end of its full year forecast. chief executive meg whitman will join "squawk on the street" at 9:00 eastern to talk about the latest. they don't sell their products now in like an option. they don't do that, do they? >> no. >> she knew how to do something other than just ebay, apparently. >> management skills, right? >> maybe so. i think we're going to have to -- she's a fine republican that ran on -- anyway, retailer nordstrom beat estimates by 4 cents. fourth quarter profit of $1.37 a share. but its full year forecast for 2014 falls below estimates as profit margins slipping. groupon earned 4 cents a share for the fourth quarter. two cents better than analysts had predicted. but the daily deal sight forecasts current quarter losses result the big loser after hours. it ran spending on marketing to grow its customer base. we will talk to mark mahaney of rbc capital in a few minutes

just to talk about groupon's latest results. he's back by popular demand. was he on yesterday? >> he cut his rating on groupon based on these results so we can talk to him about why. >> and under armour is doubling down on u.s. speed skating. cnbc has learned that the sports apparelmaker has extended its exclusive partnership. that the u.s. speedskating team through 2022. they've been making this through the team since 2011. but if you've been following the winter olympics, you know that the speed skating team has come up short in the medal count, generating controversy over -- >> yesterday, we spoke with the dutch speed skating coach who said it's the suits are important, but only in terms of what the athletes thought mentally. >> that got a lot of play over in the netherlands. and i don't speak whatever -- i was looking at the headlines, and there's some word for ek

september ri eccentric. this guy is known to be absolute loony tunes. and they're basically talking about how he basically -- >> he intentionally baited -- >> he took over -- they called us a huge news network and that he took it over with his crazy personality. >> he came to play. the guy knew what i was doing. it was intentionally riling and trying to bait. it was fun. >> it was fun. it was fun. we've got nettles across the board in all kinds of different sports. and more than the neitherlands. >> not in speed skating. in fact, this coach in particular in this olympics won 21 out of 26 medals the the. >> but we've had many speedskating medals in the past when football was being playinged. >> eric hiden. >> hiden's sister, dan jantz, apola papoll

apollo ono. ted ligety. i don't know. there's a lot of -- when you're the last super power, there's going to be a lot of bitterness in the world about -- >> but he got you thinking. you're still talking about it 24 hours later. >> rush limbaugh -- >> oh, he talked about it? >> yes. >> funny. >> it was fun. anyway, coming up at 8:15 eastern, under armour -- what time? no, it's -- 8:15? >> 8:15. >> really? >> let me double-check. >> can you roll down? >> oh, i thought he was doing this on his show. >> no, he's doing it on our show at 8:15 from 30 rock. >> good, good, all right. at 8:15 eastern, we're talking to him, too? >> yeah. >> you see, i need -- i mean, do they make stuff that holds in your junk? not your junk, but this junk? do they make things that -- >> well, under armour does make

maternity wear. >> do they make spanx for men? >> that i'm not sure about. but they have maternity stuff to try and hold you in place. >> men, maternity wear -- oh, no. >> although men do tend to put on weight with their wives. >> i know. your husband still hasn't -- how old is kyle now? >> oh, matt looks good, so there. >> as we talked about yesterday, it's in the eyes of the beholder. >> i think he does not want to be beholden by you, anyway. let's talk about treasury secretary jack lew of the g-20 finance meeting. oriel morrison joins us right now from sydney. oriel. >> yeah. how did they do in hockey? >> good morning, everyone. clearly what jack lew had to say was very much the focus of attention because he was addressing one of the key issues that we've been facing. we've been pricing the start of

the g-20 tomorrow. that is the friction between the emerging markets and the developing markets. now, he called on the emerging markets essentially to do more to put their own fiscal houses in order. it wasn't just the emerging markets, though, that he was demanding more from. he also talked about japan, the eu and china to essentially do more to boost their own domestic brand. here is what he had to say about global growth overall. >> global growth remains uneven and well below official while unemployment remains stubbornly high in many places. the growth strategies must be ambitious in substance and address efficiencies in near term demand as long as longer term economic challenges. >> you know, this is particularly important given essentially what we're going to see. tomorrow is janet yellen's debut on to the world stage. people are calling this essentially a baptism of fire, given the height of the controversy between these two

arguments. you know, jack lew wasn't the only one making criticisms. george osborne from the uk, you came out and said, you know, that some of these emerging market countries are essentially using the fed's tapering as an excuse to cloud over what are essentially problems of their own making. that wasn't the only issue we were following today. the other one is the potential setting of a growth target. we did speak to axl vaber, former head of the bundes bank, he told us global growth targets aren't likely to work, but what they are talking about at the moment is global stimulus packages. this is particularly interesting because they're talking about individual countries putting money on the table to support their own growth rates. we have a lot more coming up. guys, back over to you. >> oriel morrison, from sydney, thank you very much. when we come back on "squawk box," two stocks, one analyst.

we're going to find out what makes those companies tick, right after this. >> announcer: before you hit the road, here is your traveler's check. heading to europe on business? the average ticket price for flights from the u.s. to europe can vary by more than $250 from the first day its offered to the day of departure. so when is the best time to buy? find out, next. (vo) you are a business pro. seeker of the sublime. you can separate runway ridiculousness... from fashion that flies off the shelves. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle... and go. and only national is ranked highest in car rental customer satisfaction by j.d. power. (natalie) ooooh, i like your style. (vo) so do we, business pro. so do we. go national. go like a pro.

>> announcer: when is the best time to score cheap flights from the u.s. to europe? 53 days before takeoff, according to kayak. we had some great moments this week, even though -- >> whats app? >> we only had three days to do it. >> four days. you and i had three days. >> exactly. so we really only had three days. >> exactly. the show really only had three days to have some great moments. read about -- >> what'sapp. >> whatsapp. >> plus, michone from "the walking dead" live on the set. .a crazy dutch speedskating

coach with a little american envy who thinks american football sucks, in his words, and why it was not under armour that kept the u.s. from metaling in speedskating. go to squawk@cnbc.com. that's squawk@cnbc.com. the one comment my wife made was as i was talking about how bored i was watching a 10,000 meter speed skating -- and i'm sorry, if we get rid of football and we do that, you know, like we have eight different matches on sunday to watch, we do it on sunday night speedskating and -- it's kind of like nascar, right? >> nothing like nascar. there's 20 cars, 30 cars. this is people that barely cross -- they're not even racing each other. they're phenomenal athletes. >> but penelope liked it? >> no. he was saying they've worked really hard to get to that level and to denigrate it in that way is not -- i know that. i was talking about from a

spectator's viewpoint, i don't want -- i mean, i can watch it every four years for a little while, but, you know, thank god for college hoops and thank god for football and baseball and everything. >> the one thing that does -- >> and i'm a little bit mad at you because it is the world series, all right? yes, it is. if they want to try to come over here and play the reds or -- >> we don't invite them to our world series. >> you know what? it's also the world series of economics. >> but that was john cleich who said that. only america would come up with something, called it the world series and not invite any other nations. >> geez, i wonder why a brit is bitter after leading it up to the 18th century -- you said it. let's talk about priceline earnings. they posted better than expected fourth quarter earnings in sales. groupon was a slightly different story.

it beat estimates at the latest quarter, but forecast an unexpected loss for the current quarter. joining us right now the break it all down is mark mahany. should we take the good news or the bad news first? you have two ip very different opinions on these stocks. >> let's start with the bad news. we downgraded shares of groupon to underperform. this is going to be a long transition in this business model if it works. and there's not much valuation for the support for the shares right here. we would not be buyers of groupon today. >> let's talk about the business model overall. that's probably the key you mentioned if it works. what's wrong with the business model? >> there's nothing wrong with the core local deals business model that we all know and loved from the ipo days. i think the challenge is this company is trying to become the focal point for e-commerce. they're trying to go into the good segment where amazon, ebay,

companies are entrenched. they're trying to get into the travel segment. i think that's a mistake on the part of this company. they're spending a lot of assets, a lot of marketing dollars, trying to broaden the appeal of groupon. i think that's getting away from where their business focus should be. >> you think the core itself works? because i've heard from some businesses who have been involved not just with groupon, but with other companies doing the same thing. but you're giving away something at half price a lot of time. you're getting customers. if they don't turn into repeat customers, you take a total bath on that deal. >> the way you pitched that, that model probably doesn't work. but trying to crack the local services market, trying to many coup with more efficient marketing tools to stay in front of consumers, there's a huge opportunity there. nobody has figured it out. this company has a lot of merchants who look to it for fulfilling those services needs. there is an opportunity there. nobody has won it. but that's the opportunity for this company to go beyond that and try to get into the goods market that we all know is

extremely competitive. i think that's a mistake and it's a mistake to the margins of this business and it's a mistake to the growth of the business, hence the underperform rating. >> although they are facing some stiff competition in that local business. even amazon is coming in with its own local deals. i get information from amazon every day pitching this. i guess this is to try and make sure they have some leg to stand on? >> yeah. maybe it's a hedging on some part of the country. and if the valuation stretched, which seems preaggressive here, you don't want to be buying the stock. >> let's talk about price line. he said this was an impressive report from priceline. what did you like? >> it seems like almost every report from priceline is impressive. i've been a bull on this stock for six years straight. they have done 0% bookings growth, gross profit growth, hotel room night growth for well over a year. it's very consistent reports. they've got very prodigy graphic expansion. they have an increasing presence

in asia pacific and latin america. and it's dramatically gaining shares in the north american market versus expedia. >> so what's your price target on that stock? >> $1,500. this is one of the more reasonable valuation names, too. that's a rich multiple. but you've got guaranteed -- not guaranteed. you've got sustained 25% earnings growth at this name. it's the only name in a large cap space where you can do that. >> mark, thank you very much for joining us today. >> thank you, becky. >> one thing i could watch, if we get rid of football, is women's hockey. >> yeah. you like it? >> did you watch yesterday? >> no, i didn't see it. >> oh, god. they are so on good, but it was the gold medal game. we were ahead, 2-0 with three minutes left and canada tied it up. we went into overtime and our women, for the first three minutes of overtime, had like 30 shots on goal. i mean, it was going to end and

them they didn't do it then. there was one time going into the end of regulation where they had pulled the goalie from canada. the puck went all the way down and was going in to make it 3-1 or -- 3-1 and it hit the post. >> no. >> from the other side. but the way these -- canada pulled it out. anyway, i was looking up netherlands hockey. do they -- and i found, it says the netherlands women, they won two years ago. and i'm like, wait a second, field hockey. so where is your hockey team? >> they all will be speed skating. >> yeah. even if you had hockey, you might understand. >> speed skating is distracting them from being able to play hockey. >> well, even if you had hockey, you could see what's compelling to watch. something that's going for a spectator to -- coming up, how much will the weather play a factor in the future growth and stock prices? that's next.

and will michelle -- michelle gets langone to say stuff. she gets people to say things that generate controversy. will she have another coach over there taking spots at american sports? they're all kind of jealous of us, anyway. medal count live from sochi in the next half hour. as we head to break, a look at yesterday's winners and losers. it was wonderful. bravo. >> it was pretty good. >> there were parts of it that weren't very good, though. >> it could have been a lot better. >> i didn't really like it. >> it was bad. >> it was awful. >> boo!

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good morning. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick. andrew is off today. a deal between the government and opposition protesters has been reached in ukraine. that's followed overnight talks that were joined by representatives from the eu and russia. the deal between the two sides includes constitutional changes as well as our presidential elections early in december. watching yesterday was surreal on what brian williams -- dozens have been killed and many more injured in the joins surrounding the unrest in ukraine. but seeing troops -- or they weren't troops. they haven't called in troops. there's police, but live am mow

into the crowd. then the crowd regrouped, takes the wounded, then they regroup and come at them again. it was just insane to watch this because they're not criminals. they're citizens. so that whole scene, it seems like it's something from the past like in tiananmen square or something. 2014, it's -- >> more recently, you think of the arab spring. >> but even there, it seems like they exercised a little did it maybe not more restraint. under armour signed a new eight-year deal with u.s. speed skating. the governing body for that sport comes following the controversy. kech is going to join us at 8:15 eastern to talk about this deal. and the questions raised about this. it's hard to imagine that a small area of the back slows you

down. >> split seconds. >> but even in the longer races, likely. >> right. remember the -- what was the controversy at one point that the suits in swimming were making the americans win? remember, it was the nike suits that had been designed. they said they're winning only because of these nike suits. >> i don't know how that would work. the idea that if you either dominate in a sport or you get wiped out, you get shut out in a sport, the idea that you didn't have to look for somebody the blame on the way. >> well, people -- you know, swimming save their entire body. apparently saber is totally hairless. >> still? >> i don't know. i just made that up just to mention -- because i just felt like saying saber is totally hairless. anyway, yet another economic report today in which weather may be cited as a factor. the national association of realtors is going to be out with january existing home sales at 10:00 eastern. economist res expecting a 3.5 3ers drop to an annual rate of

4.7 million units. stocks recouping earlier losses. how come you say coup but you say recoup? some of us say coup. other people says coup. by the close on the s&p 500, finishing less than 0.5 3ers. joining us now, a joe for us always auto "squawk box," david joy. peter bookmar, chief market analyst at the lindsay group and a cnbc contributor who i have been ribbing recently for being overly bearish. he came in here swaggering, cocky, head held high. you've got two months under your belt. we've gone nowhere. also, i'm not sure we're seeing exit problems yet for the fed, but if things were to continue where we're really slow, and yellen thinks this is all on me, maybe it doesn't, maybe it's not a smooth exist. maybe some of the stuff you're

talking about comes to past. where are we? >> i don't see a scenario for a smooth exit. but the market has stakes, is going to be or they think yellen is going to blink in the light of this soft data .maybe it's not so much weather. but we're seen housing data out west. that's not weather. even going into the winter, we've seen slow income growth. we've seen a draw down in the savings rate just to sustain retail sales. yes, it's weather, but not all that weather -- hopefully the market.com manufacturing index yesterday was a sign that maybe we'll get some normalization and some snapback. but with respect to the fed, i don't see an easy exit and i don't have the data that the market does that it will be an accident free exit. >> not only do you in addition not see an easy exist. what was that story yesterday in the journal?

>> because you had a few hawks in on the xht committee that talked about raising rates. but these people have 3% plus gdp estimates this year which hopefully we'll see. but right now, i'm still closer to 2%. >> but you don't believe just because this was in the minutes it changes anything from the fed's perspective? >> no. it's still being run by an uber dove being yellen. dudley's still in uber dove. so i think a majority of the committee is still very dovish. and the last thing they're thinking about is raising rates. i think they're crossing their fingers that they can get out of qe without any problems, let alone raising short-term interest rates. >> for you, david, i'm going bring up a chart quickly of the s&p because we were fortunate enough at the end of the year to close at 1850. so i don't even have to loot it pup. i know it's 1850. so there's the close. and we have never gotten back there. so far in january and february. so it's easy to remember we're

still below it. do you think it's possible to draw a line through to december and see all the action beneath there or do you think we go through and trade higher? >> well, i think we end up at 1850. but i think we trade higher. and i think this market is basically poised to push higher. i think we're going to get close to 3% gain in the second were third, maybe fourth quarter of the year. and i think that pushes the market higher. but as we do, you're going to see the unemployment rate go way through the threshold that the fed has set for itself at 67.5. maybe not into 2014, but maybe into september that the futures market is thinking september 2015. and i think at that point, the market ends up flat on the year.

but between now and then, we trade higher. >> that's not fair. because if we get things going our way and the economy does 3% and unemployment comes back and the market doesn't go up based on the economy based on unemployment? >> no. i think what happens is the market looks around and says, wait a minute, rates are going up. how much of this rally over the last few years was the result of easy monetary policy? and maybe i should be taking some profits here and let's just see how it all shapes out. it will not be, in my view, a tidy shift to higher interest rates. and i think at that point history tells us that stocks correct. >> that's all -- >> i think the round trip is pretty flat. >> we had a great four or five years. so that's ten months. and then after that, after we consolidate this year, do we go to 10,000 or 2100 on the s&p in 2015? >> yes, i think so. >> okay. >> if you look at -- look at

the -- the underlying fundamentals, we've done a lot of repair in this economy and i think that allows us to trade higher. >> peter, you think that's probably not going to happen. you think we go back at some point down on the s&p. where do interest rates go? >> well, i think this taper, if it continues, is going to lead to the 10% to 15% correction that we haven't had in multiple years. that will then obviously create, in my opinion, a better opportunity to be buying stocks. i'm not in the camp that stocks are inexpensive. i think they're actually expensive. if you look at multiples outside of just earnings, if you look at price to sales, if you look to earnings price relative to normalized earnings and i define that as the shiller margin adjusted one, to me, the market is expensive. plus you have margin debt as a percent to gdp, the second higher ever. so there's no room for error. and in my opinion, again, the fed is going to create a greater opportunity for access in the context of an expensive market.

to me, that's not necessarily going to be a good combination at some point this year. >> all right. opposing, i think, even though david joy is not our -- anyway, david joy, as i've said, a joy once again. peter -- >> thank you. >> -- thanks for coming in. you've been right for two months and now you're definitively saying all this stuff now. i can see that you're getting back at me a little bit. >> my viewpoint would be different if the fed wasn't so entrenched in the marketplace. >> they really are, in our lives. so deeply into our lives. it's not just zero interest rates. >> right. >> and we just think it's normal that they're buying 80 -- you know, all right. >> what is it now? >> 65. >> they're still here. >> yep. >> thanks, guys. when we come back, russia is showing off to the world. the games in sochi putting the country front and center. but is russia a place you want to invest? that is coming up in just a few minutes. and at 8:15 eastern time, under armour's ceo kevin plank

is talking to cnbc first about a new pack to stay as official suit provider to the u.s. speed skating team. more squawk right after this. [ male announcer ] we don't just certify our pre-owned vehicles. we inspect, analyze, and recondition each one, until it's nothing short of a genuine certified pre-owned mercedes-benz for the next new owner. [ car alarm chirps ] hurry in to the mercedes-benz certified pre-owned sales event. visit today for exceptional offers. ♪

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welcome back, everybody. u.s. equity futures are indicated higher, about 32 points above fair value after big gains from yesterday. berkshire hathaway's business wire deciding not to let high frequency companies buy directly from business wire. this comes after warren fwuft and new york attorney general defended itself saying no high

frequently traders had an unfair advantage on market news. but a recent "wall street journal" said there was an advantage by purchasing that information directly from the source. and perhaps getting it within microseconds earlier. joe. coming up, we're going to have michelle with another european speed skating coach taking shots at american sports. i know she has the highlights of the women's hockey finals plus the medal count. will she? i didn't say she will. will she. >> oh, will she. >> maybe she will. we'll check in with her in sochi, next. huh, fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. everybody knows that. well, did you know pinocchio was a bad motivational speaker? i look around this room and i see nothing but untapped potential.

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only a few days left in the winter games to sochi. let's get to michelle caruso cabrera who is pushing through to the financial line. did you yell at that guy after the interview was over yesterday or something? what happens to your voice? >> i didn't yell at him. i don't know. i've been here a long time. it's been cold. but we're going to try to get through this. >> good. we've got a guess coming up. camille, we're going to talk to

him in a second. we have a first, we want to give you the highlights about what happens last night. let's go to figure skating. the united states and russia have -- first. the united states and russia have had changes in the last 24 hours. the united states is till in the lead with 25 medals. figure skating, sotinkova took the gold in figure skating. everyone expected 15-year-old yulia lipnitskaya. she collapsed under the pressure and performed poorly. 2010 gold medalist yu na kim tok silver. it carried deep in the third

period but just three minutes left to play. it went into overtime. god it was exciting. i was there. i did not cheer. all right. joining us now is camille dimitriov. you run one of the sovereign wealth funds here. idea is you convince other sovereign wealth funds to invest in russia and co-invest alongside of them with government money. have i got that right. >> yes. so far we invested 3.8 billion of which 900 million came from us and the rest from foreign investors. >> why do you need to co-invest with other sovereign wealth funds? >> we believe people who invest in russia need a strong partner, just as people who invest in china need a strong partner in china. basically we pulled the money to

get the same return profile and risk return. also, it's not just providing them with sense of working together but giving them deals, giving them access to our due diligence, et cetera. >> is the existence of your fund a mission? >> think it's worse than reality. very few people know, for example, gdp per capita was 1/20th of the u.s., now it's one-third. other countries have set up similar funds. france has just set up a similar fund. image problem definitely exists. >> do you think the leadership realizes it has an aimage problem? >> well, russia is a proud country. it's not been very focused on marketing. there's a sense we do what's right and let the world think about it. i think we just need to communicate positive things

about such as middle class tripled in the last five years. communicating those positive facts has been useful when we talk to different investors. >> becky has a question for you. appreciate you coming on today. i think it's more than an image problem that russia has. we talk to a lot of investors here who say they worry about corruption and then they point to things like rule of law and an ever-changing rule of law. you can have putin come in and tell gaspron that they have to set certain prices for what they charge like he did with the ukrainian situation recently. that makes investors nervous. what do you tell them? >> corruption is a worldwide problem. you just released a report that corruption in europe is $160 billion a year. it's a major, major problem. definitely needs to be fought with and that's a big issue. actually, there's a major

perception difference between people who actually invested in russia and people who didn't. survey shows 72% of investors who have actually invested in russia who have been here have a positive view of the investment environment. people who never invested have a perception gap and some concern. definitely real problems do exist. but the perception is greater and real problems need to be fixed. we need to fight corruption more. be very transparent and frankly, bringing foreign investors helps this cause. we want the expertise. >> joe has a question. >> corruption being widespread globally notwithstanding, how about the implicit backing of a regime that fires bullets into its own citizenry? you don't -- putin not controlling the strings in this situation? and is it not his attempt to once again in the journal's word

build a wider russia, maybe even bring ukraine back into it? we should look the other way at this when making investments and hold our nose with what happens in terms of human rights? >> well, first of all, i'd really like to stick to investment questions because this is what my expertise is. the situation is much more complex than what you are describing. russia wants a peaceful solution in ukraine. it has been pushing forward for a solution. real people who are angry in ukraine but there are lots of extremists who are angry. it's not clear that the position controls those extremists. stability in ukraine is paramount. ukraine has tremendous promise and russia will work towards basically peaceful solution to make sure that ukraine is a stable, growing country, which is in russia's interest. >> mr. dimitriev, thanks for coming on. a pleasure to have you. >> thank you, michelle, thank

you so much. >> you were at that game. i want to tell you that it reremind ee ee eed me, the last minutes reminded me of the seventh game of a world series, where every ball, every pitch, it was unbelievable to watch that, wasn't it? >> it was great. what was sad, there were so few americans there last night. it was almost all canadians. and they were just crazy happy and when they were losing, oh, wow. but it was sad to see the women lose but yes, wow, what an exciting, exciting finish. >> and i just -- i wonder whether the netherlands is not very good at hockey. they're single-minded focus on speed skating, which sucks -- no, i'm kidding. that was using his words on football.

>> i will ask him. it's a small country. they have to make choices. >> don't pick on them because they're small. >> like us. like us. >> anyway, that was as good as tv in hi-def can get. >> it was. >> the women play, because i think they don't kill each other, the checking, the strategy, they're so good. both teams were so good. >> right. it was a killer. but canada, they're kind of america. they're north america, right? >> they are north america. and they're our friends. >> we like them. >> when we come back, we'll get an update on the situation in ukraine and frozenomics and real estate. will the snow and ice force buyers and sellers to wait longer to get connected? what could that mean for an industry so important to the economy? "squawk box" will be right back. k you're gonna go ♪

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hopes for peace in ukraine. leaders reaching a tentative agreement to end the violence. we have a live report on this breaking news. frozenomics and real estate. will the winter weather put a chill into buyers and sellers? >> how is the turnaround going for hewlett-packard? it's one of today's top stocks to watch as "squawk box" begins right now. >> good morning, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen. andrew is off today. the futures have been indicated higher after the gaughans we saw

yesterday. you'll see the dow futures up by about 30 points above fair value, nasdaq up by 7 and the s&p up by just over 3. the ten-year note is yielding 2.758%. hewlett-packard shares are on the rise. the company reported quarterly profit of 90 cents a share, 6 cents better than the street was expecting. hp was helped by improvement in enterprise commuting and networking of equipment. we'll be hearing about that from ceo meg whitman who will be appearing on "squawk on the street" at 9:00 eastern time. the controversy over the u.s. olympic team speed skating suits has not upset the relationship with under armour. u.s. speed skating signing a new eight-year deal with under armour. kevin plank will join us to talk about that deal in the next hour. groupon, the daily deal site is predicting a surprise loss for the current quarter as it increases marketing spending to

grow its customer base. talked to an analyst, mark mahaney earlier who cut his ratings based on this. that stock is down 14%. leaders in ukraine have reached a preliminary deal in an effort to stop the violence that left more than 75 dead and hundreds injured. just reading, jim maceda doesn't see all of our newspapers over here, a nurse, 21 years old was shot in the neck and tweeted i'm dying after she was shot in the neck. you can't believe what social media -- some of it's good, some of it brings you right to where jim maceda is right now. he is our nbc guy, our man that's over there now. he's in moscow with the latest. it's hard for us to read some of this stuff. >> hi, joe. yes. i appreciate that. and it's also complicated to grasp how quickly things are

moving here from moscow. but we're monitoring things as we can. live streams come in from the various locations. but i think the most important thing right now is this deal. victor yanukovych issued a statement saying he has signed the deal which he says will bring an end to the violence, the kind of violence we've seen over the past 72 hours and also restore peace to ukraine. he mentions three points in his statement, including early elections. that is in december of this year, returning to the 2004 constitution, which is a constitution that gives much more power to the parliament and takes it away from the president. and the forming of a coalition government in ten days. there's a fourth point listed in the draft of the deal. i had a chance to see the hard copy and as the investigation of

all crimes committed during the current crisis, crimes that, of course, you're making reference to. but the three eu foreign ministers who brokered the deal are calling for caution. the polish minister saying that what has been agreed to is just a draft. it's not a full-blown signing. he called it a, quote, delicate moment. and just a starting point. not necessarily the end of the conflict by any means. joe, back to you. >> i guess that's the question, is whether, you know, i don't know enough about the four points but will the opposition, will they look at this and say, is the guy stay for another year? is this going to satisfy them? >> wow, that's a great question. the short answer is, it's hard to see how and that's playing out right now. as we speak. opposition leaders want to discuss the deal, they say. they're not signing anything yet. they're going to independence

square where several thousand protesters are standing, waiting for them. there's going to be a discussion, debate. that's going to severely delay any signing. here's the problem. as you suggested. this is a compromise deal. in it yanukovych gets some of his powers or loses some of them, he agrees to early elections and a transition government but the tradeoff is, he stays in power for almost another year. that is not going to go down well with many of the protesters, especially the more hard core extremist group called right sector which have been doing so much of the fighting on the front line. the situation very fluid. we understand the german foreign minister is on his way for another round of talks with the leaders of both the opposition and the protesters. and the polish prime minister has just indicated we saw this in the wires before i got on the balcony here. he's indicated that according to

him, the opposition may not sign at all. so, really, it's fluid. back to you. >> you know, the more that the protesters and the opposition -- the more bloodshed they put in, i would think that they would think we've come this far and you know, if this is half measures, after what they sacrificed, you just wonder, you know, jim? >> absolutely. these particular -- this particular group, right sector, has said if and only if yanukovych resigns will the bloodshed stop. they've already admitted that they are armed. they are there. not only to prepare to use weapons but they have used weapons. the indication clear based on what that statement yesterday, the blood shed will increase, it will not decrease. they'll continue doing what they're doing until he is out of power. i cannot imagine them in any

way, them signing on, those hard-core folks, signing on to this deal. >> thanks, jim. we'll check back with jim one more time in this show anyway at 8:00 a.m. eastern. let's get right to our guest host for the next two hours, charles campbell, executive director at mkm partners. also here with us, mr. timmers. we have yellen now. we heard her first testimony. we got the minutes and now we've got the journal made a big deal out of a possible rate increase sooner than people thought. the bond market hasn't done anything, though. >> the bond market hasn't, joe. the reason is, in the fed minutes they said a few members thought there could be a rate rise sooner than previously thought. the federal reserve policy not

set by a few members. it's set by the majority of members. >> it's a whole new regime. >> what we do know is the markets view the possible contractionary effects of the fed taper. the federal reserve is sensitive to that. they will offset that with strong forward guidance that is explicit. i think what we'll see going forward is not only a move -- a shift away from the evans rule of the 6.5% threshold but will couple that with other economic indicators and also we will keep rates lower with zero or lower bond, well into 2016. i think that will be clear. the minority view that was referenced recently in the paper, will be drowned out by the majority. >> how's the economy, is it weather or flowing? >> i wish we knew. we really won't know probably till the spring. >> i know you'll have someone in a few minutes on frozenomics. >> you know?

let me look. thank you. >> we really won't know. you won't have clean data for a couple of months because everyone takes two weeks off there. last year's rally was built on fed liquidity and the fed liq d liquidity is diminishing. now we have to know if escape velocity is happening. if it's not, you have to wonder how much of the multiple expansion was justified. >> you think it is, though? >> it's hard to tell. you look at the retail sales, they were weak but november and december were revised downward. >> do you think the market thinks it is? we're back at these levels. is this the market thinking yes, this is weather, we'll get through this? or is this the market thinking, if it turns out things are better than we think, we'll push a lot higher. >> the s&p rallied 101 points in seven days off the low about a week or two ago. it seems like we're in an all news is good news mode again like we were from '09 to 2011,

during this inflationary period, if we don't get escape velocity we get a dovish fed. the dollar was down the last couple of weeks. yields were down, stocks were up and gold and silver break out. that's the reflation trade. the market seems to not care right now. >> i would counter to that by saying the market is expecting better economic data and they're also discounting the weather. leading indicators like initial claims, conference board's survey of present situations like the nfib, hiring plants index, those two metrics are at new cycle highs. >> if the economy is worse than we think, if it's not just the weather, the market doesn't deserve to be at these levels? >> that's correct. i think the mark set aware of the indicators, aware of the strong correlation between claims and financial metrics and valuations. they are expecting that the data

will turn and will in fact improve. >> in support of that, if you look at credit spreads over the last couple of months, they really haven't budged very much. even as the s&p declined 6%, credit spreads remained very well behalfed. >> they're not disturbed at all. >> no. that would be an indicator that things are still okay. last year, earnings rose 5% and the market rose 32%. that was a big expansion. >> we started at a 14 multiple and ended at a 16. >> either one of you think about washington anymore and the wrangling that goes on there? or did we put that behind us? >> every day and never. >> what are we going to do? i like this latest thing in "the journal." apparently the president's budget will not have olive branches for republicans. he's taking a hard line, which we haven't seen that. the reason is senior white house officials say that the shift is a result of the republican' refusal to compromise with

mr. obama despite the repeated previous attempts for him to work with them. and all the previous social events, gop favored policy positions that he has proposed. you buying? i ask you that because i know how you feel. read that again. i read it and i've had to read it a few times. are they joking? >> no, the administration is not joking. >> is the journal joking? >> i don't think they're joking either. i think from the administration standpoint it's hard to start out from a hard position. >> they're always so conciliatory. >> you'll be with us for the rest of the show. when we come back, we get a report card on hewlett-packard and their turnaround plan. plus, will the real estate market thaw out from the spring selling season? that's coming up, right here on "squawk box."

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welcome back, everybody. we did have great moments this week. >> whatsapp? >> this week's talking "squawk" blog you can read all about -- >> whatsapp. >> plus, a scene from the walking dead live right here on the set and a speed skating coach that thinks football sucks. read more about it, go to

squawk.cnbc.com. that is squawk.cnbc.com. when we come back, will the weather delay home sales? will it be slower to get to the spring selling season? what does that mean if there's a glut of houses on the market when spring finally arrives? we'll talk about that right after this. a quick programming note. on monday, ron baron will be our special guest with stock names he likes right now. that is monday right here on "squawk." yeah. [ male announcer ] ...office space. yes, we're loving this communal seating. oh, it's great. yeah. [ male announcer ] the best thing to share? a data plan. ♪ new at&t mobile share value plans for business. our best value plans ever. for example, you can get 10 gigs of data to share. and 5 lines would be $175 a month. plus you can add a line anytime for $15 a month. sharing's never been better for business. ♪ sharing's never been better for business.

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welcome back, everybody. the winter weather having a chilling effect on home buyers and sellers. diana olick joins us right now with talk on frozenomics. >> that's why this is turning into an epic bull/bear debate on whether the weather is really to blame for the slowdown in the housing recovery or if it has something to do with something more serious which is weakened afordability. home prices shot way up in 2013, so did mortgage rates which together are making housing far more expensive. how much more? 21% according to a new report

from realty track. they looked at the average monthly payment on the median priced home with a 20% down and 30-year fixed mortgage, a 10% rise in home prices and rates going from 3.5 to 7.5, that payment goes from $714 a month to $865. also michigan and nevada are seeing jumps. we've seen home sales nationwide down for four straight months. the good news is, price gains are are easing a bit and inventory is rising. that's what the bulls are harping on when they blame the weather. the bears say the weaker affordability is why california is seeing such a huge drop in sales, down nearly 14% in january from a year ago. we get the national existing home sales numbers for january out in just under three hours. they will, of course, only add to this debate, i'm sure, guys. >> diana, stay with us. we want to continue talking

about this. joining us right now with more is jed kolko, the chief economist at trulia. jed, what do you think? is this a case of the weather or is there something much bigger going on? >> good morning, becky. i think the weather hurts construction and sales activity but by much less than people think. given what happened in the polar vortex in january, the weather probably knocked construction and sales in january down by 1% or 2%. now, that sounds small. the reason for that is, it actually wasn't the coldest january ever. it wasn't even the coldest january for the past decade in the northeast or the midwest. it was dry and most construction activity is in the south and west. that had a better january than the northeast and midwest did. so it's not mostly about the weather. >> diana just laid out this huge argument about affordability. is that what's kicking in? >> affordability is definitely part of the story. cost 20% more to buy a home now

than it did about a year ago, even more than that in the west. there's also uncertainty on the mortgage side. lots of uncertainty about what's happening with rates and the new mortgage rules may be at least temporarily slowing down some of the mortgage activity. we're seeing continued shift toward all cash purchases. all these things are affecting the market at the same time. >> when you see rates go up, prices go up, a lot of times that will lead to a temporary pause but then consumers come back when they realize they need a house and things aren't going to get better over the case of many months, things aren't going to get cheaper. is that what happens here? >> both with the rates and mortgage rules, we're in a period of adjustment. i think that's temporary. we'll see mortgage rates continue to rise. but what also matters is what's happening on the rental side. a lot of this pent up housing demand we've been waiting for is going to show up on the rental side, not on the for sale side. when young people start moving out of their parents' homes

they're not going to buy. first they're going to rent. builders are responding to that. we saw in 2013 apartment construction hit a 15-year high, even though single family construction is still lagging. >> right. charles? >> jed, it's charles campbell here. aren't these problems good problems to have? the supply and the construction level is at a million, the demographics are 1.4 million per year. and the negative equity has gone from 22% a year ago federal reserve data shows, to 13% recently. the home buyer is healing, the housing market is recovering, consumer net worth is improving. isn't this a natural consequence of those dynamics? >> much of this is that natural consequence of those dynamics but there are things that are lagging worse than they should be. the situation for young people, their employment rate is still closer to the worst point at the recession. than to their normal level. it means that the recovery that we see this year in the market is not going to be first time

home buyers. affordability makes it harder for first-time home buyers. it also turns off investors but it makes more room for repeat buyers who benefit from the rise in prices on the home they're selling even though the home they're buying is also more expensive. we'll see more repeat buyers in the market trading up, down or across. this is not going to be the year of the first-time home buyer. >> diana? >> i talked to a lot of real estate agents and brokers every day. the word that keeps coming up is demand or lack thereof. they're just not seeing the kind of demand they want to see going into the spring market. we're coming to the end of february right now. president's day weekend, that's supposed to be the start. they're just not seeing it. with the investors pulling back, investors were such a huge part of this market in 2013, with them pulling back their buying we'll start to see whether or not that real organic buyer is coming back in. if we don't see the demand really in the next five weeks as we come up to the season for

mortgage politics, people getting ready to buy, that will be the real teller for this season. >> diana, jed, thank you both for joining us today. >> thank you. coming up, highlights and a medal couldn't the from sochi. and what's going on with hewlett-packard? we check out the stock, which is back at 30 when we return.

welcome back to "squawk box," everyone. in our headlines, we are watching two stocks that are heading different directions. price line is higher, groupon is moving lower. both came out with earnings after the bell last night. both companies beat estimates. groupon warned of a current quarter loss. because of a higher acquisition cost. mark mahaney said he was pleased with the priceline numbers but disappointed with groupon. jpmorgan chase reached a deal with activist shareholders that should make its annual meeting less controversial. the agreement avoids a repeat of last year's battle over whether

the roles of chairman and chief executive officer should be split. among the details, more information from jpmorgan over risk mitigation practices. elsewhere in banking, citigroup's ceo michael corbat earned $14.1 million last year, a pay raise of about 23% over 2012. it included about $3.8 million in deferred stock. that total was about the same as bank of america chief brian moynihan. behind jpmorgan's morgan jamie dimon and goldman sachs ceo lloyd blankfein. hwe have brian white, canto fitzgerald global head of technology hardware and software. what has meg whitman been able to do over the past year that has confounded people who said she couldn't do it and it's back to 30. what's different? >> one thing is she's done a good job of marketing the story.

i went back to october 2012 and the street consensus was 4.1 for fiscal '13. they about 356, yet the stock doubled. the real brilliance behind meg whitman is she took down numbers for this fiscal '13, set the barlow and she was able to meet expectations. that's been the real story. sales are down 10 consecutive quarters year-over-year. >> you sound like you are a doubter. you don't think the stock should be at these levels. >> we cover a broad range of i.t. vendors and it is very, very competitive. there's a lot of technology under the hood at great, great companies, that hp really doesn't have. they have a lot of commodity businesses like pcs, lake printers. i think this is, you know, it's been good for shareholders. she's done a great job telling the story, they're lucky to have her but fundamentally, longer

term, it will be difficult, especially without a software platform. >> do you have a sell on it. >> we have a hold rating. >> you had a hold rating at the low 20s, too. >> correct. >> people that listen to you are holding something else at that point. >> where i see opportunity is some of the smaller software names or some of the better positioned big i.t. names. >> if it goes to 40 will you ever become more positive? or it's impossible to go to 40? can you tell me it's impossible to go to 40? >> i think if we felt like they have something out there that's going to change with this move to new i.t., whether it's in the cloud or big data, i think if they'd capitalize on that we'd change our opinion. >> is she in a position to seize on that? is she going to do anything with the underperforming assets? does she need to to win you over? >> i don't think they need to be in pc. we know who's going to win there.

lenovo is number one. i see the asian competitors becoming more competitive. >> didn't she decide to keep it. she can't go back on that decision. >> you can always go back. that was, whatever, 18 months ago. i see no reason in a couple of years why they wouldn't want to be out of that. ibm is selling their serving business to la nenovlenovo. >> the shift to cloud architecture is extremely disruptive. >> yes. >> how does that impact hewlett, who wins, who loses? >> everyone is making this transition. your bigger company it takes longer, right? but i don't see hp -- one thing you need to have is a good software platform. ibm has $26 billion in software revenue and they're number two or three in the world. hp has a $4 billion portfolio in software. software is very, very important. this trend towards software defined data center, right?

that's about cloud. that's about big data. they just don't have the resources, i think, to capitalize on that. if you look at multiples today you can buy apple at a similar multiple, you can buy ibm at a similar multiple. it has by big data platform. that's more interesting than hewlett-packard. >> ibm has underperformed when you look at the way hewlett has performed. right now you could put on a spread, short hewlett and go long ibm in your view? >> i like ibm because i think under the hood there's a great, great big data platform. >> better than hewlett's? >> much better. >> much better. who's better than ibm, anybody? >> ibm has a lot of great smaller competitors. >> who are hewlett's competitors that are better, apple and cisco and ibm? >> emc is also a good kpet per. i'm not going to say better but

good. no one has the breadth of ibm. you're all trying to be ibm with the end-to-end solutions. ibm is different in that they have most of the pieces to the puzzle. now software companies are acquiring hardware companies, right? cisco got into the server market. emc will expand their presence. they wand this end-to-end solution. i think ibm has a good, good fundamental portfolio underneath what's happening in i.t. >> hewlett tried to do the end-to-end thing. they were unsuccessful in some of their acquisitions. >> they bought autonomy for 10 billion. >> they bought the wrong company or? >> they paid ten times revenue. $10 billion was -- >> that was not her, though? >> no, it wasn't. i think they have some of the pieces, i just don't think they're strong in their markets. servers are a commodity.

the odms are getting involved in this. the whole landscape is changing. you've got to think three to five years out, who's going to capitalize on this? everyone is going through a transition. i don't think hewlett-packard will do well in this new environment. >> all right, brian. above 30, this will be easy to remember. whether we buy it or -- >> you're going to hold him to his hold. >> hold you to the hold. >> you should go to a sell if you really feel this way you should go to sell. are you his boss? >> you knew the boss that was his boss? >> yes. >> you can go all the way up to howard, right? >> if one had to they could. >> all right, all right. thanks. by the way, chief executive of hp, meg whitman will be joining "squawk on the street" at 9:00 to talk about the last

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welcome back, everybody. take a look at the futures this morning. yesterday stocks ended up at the high of the day, a little bit of a mini rally closing with the dow up 29 points, shaking off early losses. the green arrows continue. dow futures indicated up about 30 points above fair value, the s&p futures up by 3.5. time for an update from the sochi winter olympics. he's there. he has an athlete's mentality and attitude. he's brian sullivan. he's in sochi. >> athlete in the '76 games, perhaps, joe, but i appreciate it nonetheless. thank you very much, guys. i want to get to hockey in a second. let's start with figure skating because the russian who was the superstar and all the weight of

russia was on did not perform we well. in fact, yulia lipnitskaya, adelina sotnikova ended up getting the gold. it was the 15-year-old who all the eyes were on. still, russia takes the gold. in free skate, women's hockey, obviously very, very difficult defeat for the u.s. women's team. they were up 2-0 with two minutes left to go. canada pulled their goalie. a shot, hit the pole, missed. canada scores in overtime and takes the gold medal. a bit of a heartbreaking loss for u.s. women's hmo ockey. news generally, guys, tends to be on the negative side. earlier today we were interviewing four of the members of the u.s. women's team and speaking with julie chu. in the middle of the interview, literally we're tapped on the

shoulder and the u.s. olympic committee told us they had chosen chu to carry the american flag during the closing ceremony. this is exactly what happened. watch this. >> you've just been asked to be the flag bearer for the closing ceremony. >> yay! >> i didn't really expect that here. >> that's awesome. >> speechless. >> literally, we just got that news. how do you feel? >> speechless. because this team, it's about our team, this whole time. it's weird to think -- i wasn't even thinking about this. i'm just going to bumble along right now. >> do wrist curls, something, get ready for the flag. >> i don't know what to say. what an honor. >> so that was really cool, guys. she had no idea that it was coming. there were more hugs all around once the cameras stopped rolling. obviously it's small comfort not getting the gold medal but they were very happy with the silver.

that was a nice moment there with julie chu. speaking of medals, the u.s. extended its lead in the overall medal count, now up to 25 medals. we have speed skating coming up. obviously men's hockey semifinal tonight against canada. you have finland and sweden playing right now. we're at 25, russia with 23. canada with 22. one of those, joe, one of those russian medals, in fact, the gold medal is actually an american guy who became a russian citizen just a couple years ago because the u.s. pulled back on its alpine snowboarding program. >> through marriage or something. i saw that. you didn't see the hockey game, did you, brian? i'm still thinking about that game. i guess the refs when it came right down to it evened everything out. in overtime there was a power play that the u.s. had and they did a make-up call on -- they called it -- you could see it wasn't. that power play, i think that would have ended it right there. so many ways the americans could have won, even when the goalie was pulled, it hit the post from the other side of the ice.

i don't know how i could -- i don't think i could accept it as well as those girls played, i don't think i could accept it, you know? >> i was there actually. we were on air and the stadium here is about 100 yards to our left. i ran in, came back, did some of street signs and ran back. i caught what you were talking about. here's the other thing. i don't know if this came through on television, it was an extremely pro-canada crowd. there were a lot of canadians there. it did seem like most of the home crowd, russians, were cheering for canada as well. kind of as the underdog country. whenever canada would have the puck, they would chant skyba, skyba. she said it means puck and it translates to score, score, score! it was very much the sort of every time canada had it, it was score, score! it was a very pro-canada crowd

in there. the u.s. is up against a number of different things. >> i know. they're ahead 2-0 with like three or four minutes left. i was watching. i was like -- but what great drama, bri. every shot. sometimes i don't know, the finesse of the women without checking, they're so good at handling the puck. you could really see it. it was an amazing game to watch. i'm not over it. i'm not over it yet. >> it was tough. they handled it with grace and dignity. >> they did. >> during the rest of the interview which we'll show later today, they were happy to get the silver. w we wanted the gold but we're a great team. they said all the right things. you could see there was disappointment. why not? the skill was spectacular. it was tough. it was a game and you wonder if if will provide extra motivation for the u.s. men toon.

>> brian, when are you coming home? >> hopefully tomorrow. >> your biggest takeaway from the time you've spent there? >> biggest takeaway is that i think russia has proven the doubters wrong. you look around and i know there's a lot made about the cost, about some of the maybe hea heavy-handed tactics that may have been introduced to get the games going. all that stuff aside, the reality is this, the facilities, i'm sure carl told you have been first rate. you have the mountain village, the coastal village where we are. the people are happy. the events have gone off without a hitch. the athletes i've spoken to, not just from america, canada and other nations, they have been happy. a lot of this stuff will stick around for years and decades past the olympics. i think it's unfair to say it's $70 billion just for the games. if you've skied and you've been to vale or whistler, they effectively built vale about an hour from here.

they have formula one track, they have the world cup of soccer coming here in a year or so. they pulled it off and they pulled it off well. that's my biggest takeaway. >> and nbc, could another network -- i don't know. that is an undertaking that you better be pretty good at what you do to show the way it's been done, everything, camera placement. >> my friend from college, gerald jefferson has been running things for nbc in terms of the video they bring back and digitize. really cool. >> we built basically a city of our own here. we have a couple thousand employees here across all the different properties. i mean, it feels like you're at 30 rockefeller center and these people have been here for weeks, some of them for months. they've left their families they're a long way from home and they've tried their best to make it as american as possible. they cook for you, they do all this stuff, they have laundry services. but you're not at home. they have wives, kids, husbands.

it has been mind blowing the effort put into these games by nbc. it's spectacular. i'm honored to be here. >> it's expensive. and whenever a new deal is signed, when people are bidding on it, it's like you're kidding me. it's priceless programming. you cannot put a price on it. i don't know if it's possible. i guess it is. it's always possible to overpay and not make money but it is priceless programming. you can dvr it. you want to watch it live and dvr it. thanks, brian. >> thank you. >> when we come back, under armour's founder and ceo kevin plank speaks out about the olympic speed skating suit and the company's new deal with the olympic team. "squawk box" will be right back. announcer: where can an investor be a name and not a number? scottrade. ron: i'm never alone with scottrade. i can always call or stop by my local office. they're nearby and ready to help. so when i have questions, i can talk to someone who knows exactly how i trade.

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let's get back to our guest host, charles campbell, executive director at mkm partners. see, i'm not sure you've been pronouncing your first name correctly over the years. because there is a j there. there's a way you can say it where you say jurrien. i'm not going to say "j." i'm going to say jurrien. >> that's your apology. >> jurrien timmer, global of

fidelity global management funds at fidelity investments. do both of you gentlemen think the ten-year is definitely headed to 3.5 or 4% in the next 12 to 18 months? >> that was the consensus going into the year. >> i know. can you tell me factually that will happen? >> i think bonds are like oil prices. if they go to 3.5, it will be self-correcting pretty quickly. it will slow the economy like it did back in the spring of last year. they only went to 3% at that point. even if they go to 3.5, i don't think they'll go much further. >> how many false starts, how long can we start for the ten-year to go back up? five years ago people said it was going up there supposedly. >> right, right. we talk about asset bubbles. and people last year when we saw the surprising event of equities, everyone thought s&ps were an asset bubble. very often one of the characteristics of asset bubbles, people aren't talking about it being an asset bubble. treasuries on the other hand had a three-decade run.

last year traded poorly. you know, off double digit percentage. so i would say what's interesting is we'll go maybe 3.3 3.25, 3.40. it will be because economic growth is improving. we may be approaching or getting into a state velocity. it won't be because of inflation. that will probably be because there will still be slack in the labor market. >> how long do you date this recovery? >> i'm mike darta, our economist, 2017. >> how old is the recovery now? >> we -- it started in what -- >> 2009? >> '09. >> it's already five years. why is it a slam dunk? how long are most recoveries? >> in the old days before the great depression were were in recession every other year, then it became every four years. since the '50s or '60s it's been every ten years. >> every ten years. >> the cycle has gotten longer. >> that will be 2019 then. >> i think the big question

about rates, has the secular trend declined. mike has been talking about for a long time. so far, there are no signs of it. it's hard to see a structural secular bear market in rates. unless velocity picks up. >> do you see that coming? is that something that catches us by surprise every time it happens? >> if the economy overheats and inflation, if that genie gets out of the bottle and the fed can't put it back in because they're not going to sell securities and their balance sheet has been bloated by 3 trillion or the public loses faith in the fed and money sort of starts getting spined like it does in south american countries, then velocity will pick up and rates will shoot higher. as a primary reserve currency. >> you don't see rates of 6%, 7%, 8% coming back? >> i think the economy would crater if that would happen. >> not necessarily this year.

let's say out of the next few years. >> if the inflation genie gets unleashed, which has been a call many people have made over the last couple of years and it hasn't happened, then it's not inconceivable. it's hard to imagine rates that high. >> most of the business cycles ended because of the fed tightening unnecessarily and really too much in retrospect. that's why this forward guidance that they're now emphasizing is so important. >> yes. if you look at the taylor rule, it's suggesting fed funds should be 1% to 2%. the fed is staying underneath that. probably now with janet yellen they'll stay there for a while longer. >> it really was a shock to the system, the '08, because it's just buried inflationary expectations to where we can stay more accommodative than we should be and without paying the piper? >> cpi is up 1.6. if you were to ask most people after $3 trillion of balance sheet extension if inflation --

>> you guarantee me there won't be a recession between 2019. >> i'm not going to guarantee that. >> there's a million things that could cause it. china. we just assume we have all this time and we don't have to worry about a recession. >> china is the biggest risk. you saw the flash pmi at 48. the credit cycle seems to be coming to an end. the question is how systemic does it get and does anyone care over here about what happens in china? >> when i say jurrien, they hear jurrien. i'm saying jurrien. >> you were saying jurrien. >> all the grief you give us. >> it's like barry knapp. is it knapp or knapp? >> what do you have in your ears? >> excrement from the air conditioning. deal reached in ukraine. details just ahead. and kevin plank joins scott

wapner live to talk about high-tech speed skating and that suit that is generating so much controversy. now they signed a new deal with the speed skating team. they should hire that netherland coach and bring him over here. maybe that's the deal. i'm beth... and i'm michelle. and we own the paper cottage. it's a stationery and gifts store. anything we purchase for the paper cottage goes on our ink card. so you can manage your business expenses and access them online instantly with the game changing app from ink. we didn't get into business to spend time managing receipts, that's why we have ink. we like being in business because we like being creative, we like interacting with people. so you have time to focus on the things you love. ink from chase. so you can.

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frozenomics in the great lakes. a shipping nightmare after the great lakes freeze over completely. what sectors are being hit and what it means for business. plus, breaking news. leaders in ukraine have reached a preliminary deal in an effort to try and stop the violence. >> an update on the latest developments and a former ambassador sounds off as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick. checking the futures right now

after a pretty good session yesterday. the futures are indicated up a little bit today, extending those gains. 4 s&p points would put us at 1844, 1850. >> 6 points below. >> still about 6 points below. we could get there today. >> for everybody who thought we'd have a 10% to 15% correction, they didn't get it. it was down 5% to 6% on the lows. >> maybe more on the dow. >> the dow was 7. >> let's talk about the headlines. hewlett-packard shares have been up in the premarket trading. hp beat expectations by 6 cents a share with its latest quarterly report. check out the chart. this is covering the period after the stock was removed from the dow jones industrial average. it's been up about 44% since then. maybe one you wished hadn't come out. the ceo, meg whitman will be joining "squawk on the street" in the next hour to talk about the quarter.

groupon is forecasting a current quarter loss as it spends more to try to expand its customer base. we've had an analyst, mark mahaney who said he's downgrading the stock as a result. that stock is down by almost 12% right now. we have another economic report out today. this time, weather may be cited as a factor once again. the national association of realtors will be out with january existing home sales at 10:00 eastern time. economist are looking for a 3.5% drop. ukraine's government says a tentative resolution has been reached to the crisis that's brought days of violence in that country's capital. nbc's jim maceda joins us once again. hello, again, jim. >> reporter: hi, joe. the latest from here, from kiev and neighboring ukraine is that viktor yanukovych has signed a

draft deal that includes early elections in december of this year, a return to the 2004 constitution, the one that was in effect until yanukovych gutted it and the forming of a coalition government in ten days. but even as he announced that, a split within the opposition has surfaced. party leaders of the opposition accepted a compromise that yanukovych remain in power for at least ten more months. many protesters are just not buying it. not they say after dozens of deaths and hundreds of wounded among them at the hands of riot police. and confirming that split just in the last half hour or so. an opposition leader said the opposition would sign the deal but that further talks were necessary with protesters. this deal, joe, is looking a lot more like a starting point. by no means the end to the conflict. in fact, one eu official says today there's a risk that the worst case scenario, meaning all

bets are off and a return to the barricades could still happen in ukraine. that's a sobering thought. back to you. >> jim maceda, we appreciate you reporting there this morning for us. thank you. in the meantime, stocks coming off of a positive session. investors appearing to discount some of the soft economic numbers we've been getting. joining us right now is darryl kronk, regional chief investment officer at wells fargo. and mr. hmorrie harris. >> this is primarily a weather story. is there something more taking place? maybe in some sectors. but for the big picture economy this is about the weather. as long as the consumer confidence measures hold up as they have, i'm not that worried

about underlying weakness. >> what about some of the issues with the housing sector? we talked earlier today to an analyst who pointed out that a lot of these things have been coming from price increases. you have price increases on the homes and more expensive mortgages and that that could add up to be something that lasts well beyond just the winter weather. >> well, you've got two cross-currents going on in housing. clearly compared to a year ago, rates are higher, prices are higher, monthly payments are higher. although when you look at affordability indices compared to history, housing isn't as affordable as it was a year ago but historically it's relatively affordable. on the positive side, you have lower unemployment now than you had a year ago. you've got more payroll jobs than you had a year ago. i would say when you look at the spring selling season, i'm going to have the jobs higher than they were last year. better consumer confidence. i think the net result of all

this is we'll have a pretty good spring selling season. >> you can take issue with i allot of the numbers. the economic reports we're getting, you can say issue with the unemployment numbers, why they're coming down, what's happening. what do you think is happening from an economic perspective. >> i agree with maury, becky. i think the weather is creating some of the problems. we've seen this movie before, the last three years, running that the weather impacts are optically large but tend to be transistorry. 2013 was about multiple expansion in the markets but 2014 needs to be about earnings growth and it needs to be about money flow into the markets. we're seeing positive trends on both. fourth quarter earnings are coming in at 9% earnings growth. we're seeing that operating leverage. all we gots with 1% to 2% revenue growth. it's translating straight to the bottom line, especially in industries that have strong

operating leverage. you couple that with a nice pickup in cap ex spending which we've been waiting for for quite some time. that bodies well heading into this year. >> the market where it's priced right now, we have the correction of 5%, 6%, 7%, depending on which index you're following. that came back. are the markets at this point thinking, yes, all of these lousy economic numbers we'll write this off as weather. or is the market thinking if we don't get the better numbers are we going to see a dip back down again? >> i think the turmoil in january and february were an interruption and not inflection point in current trend. >> okay. >> when you look at passable markets with be they're built off of slow, successive, positive surprises. that's exactly what we've been getting up until the last 30 to 45 days. i think when you look through that into the fundamentals and you say consumer confidence and small business optimism are at recovery highs, cash is still at record levels for corporate balance sheets and for the consumer. you have central banks willing

to do still whatever it takes in that regard. that does not interrupt a bull market long term. >> you think we'll push higher in the stock market, above the closing highs of last year? >> yes. i do think -- you're seeing -- even with the turmoil you're seeing the u.s. markets and the global equity markets at recovery highs and at current highs. if you lack through into credit spreads, right, high yield spreads and stuff, they're telling you the stress is not there. >> do you see con tatagion risk >> i think the contagion risk has died down a little bit. certainly it's big in countries that carry those big capital count deficits and the issues they have but the reality is, those are so small. if you add up turkey, argentina, ukraine, it adds up to 1.5% of global gdp growth. it is significant beyond the headline risk that's associated with it. >> maury, what would make you

change your mind? how much longer can the weather be the pass that we give for all these lousy economic numbers? >> it would be very discouraging if in march, assuming we have better weather, if we don't get a strong bounce-back in the numbers. also in march i would like to see the beginnings of an increase in home purchase mortgage applications which would be one of my first indicators heading into the housing season. into the spring housing season. >> maury, thank you for joining us. thanks for coming in. coming up, under armour ceo kevin plank, the company's suit being worn by the olympians on our speed skating team is under fire in sochi. we'll ask him about that. and the new contract. that under armour just signed with the team. as we head to break, check out the "squawk box" market indicator. latte or au lait?

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well, we've had great xauk moments this week. >> whatsapp. >> you can get a second look in this week's talking "squawk" blog. read all about -- >> whatsapp. >> a crazy dutch speed skating coach who thinks american football sucks. those were his words. go to squawk.cnbc.com. that address is squawk. cn cnbc.com. when we come back, under armour ceo kevin plank and a first on cnbc interview. we'll talk speed xading and the company's latest deal. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 ...you see opportunities. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 at schwab, we're here to help tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 turn inspiration into action. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 we have intuitive platforms tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 to help you discover what's trending. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and seasoned market experts to help sharpen your instincts. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 so you can take charge tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 of your trading.

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let's get to scott wapner in new york. he has a special guest with him. scott? >> thank you very much. here with us, ceo of under armour, kevin plank. >> word is you've signed a new contract with u.s. speed skating, in your words, doubling down. >> yes. we've had a lot happening over the last week or so, quieting the noise and telling people everyone from speed skating to our brand that got a bit unfairly beat up last week, you know, got knocked down. there's no greater story than probably the comeback either. what we want to do is make sure about this one particular sport that we're going to dust ourselves up, get up and come back bigger and stronger than

we've been before. >> the timing of this new deal seems peculiar to me. >> yes. >> why now? is this happening? is this to make the controversy go away? did you get good terms on this deal because you're coming out now? >> we want -- we don't want the story going any longer. we want to come back to the story in four years. our athletes are still skating. we have team pursuits over the weekend also. the u.s. still has a great shot at hitting the podium. regardless, we want to make sure our message is there, this isn't just one and done. there are speculation of how we are going to react to it. i want people to be clear, we will stand up and come back. that's nothing more american than that story. wait till you see us in 2018. the coaching philosophy is, continuity is one approach coaches may take and also

shuffling the deck. when the u.s. speed skating team came out, didn't have the results they wanted, i think the decision came down to what could it be? frankly by the time you're in the middle of competition, there's only so many variables that you have the ability to change. they went from a brand new suit that we put all the innovation and technology in the world to a suit that we had a lot of technology and innovation in prior. they were both under armour suits. >> come on, they went back to the other suits and they didn't perform any better. >> yes. >> did you feel vindicated at that point? >> no, no. i think, listen, we are patriots first. we remain -- i'm sitting there watches these races and thinking there could be no better platform for our company than winning gold in under armour suits. so in no way, you know, you can't do that in sports. when you find yourself -- if you ever found yourself rooting against an athlete you're in the

wrong business. >> what has the last week been like for you? you're not just the ceo, you're the face, the founder, for all intents and purposes, this is your baby. >> it's hard. people are taking shots at your company and there's nothing you can do about it. >> you called it a witch hunt. >> there was definitely people looking for answers. the witch wound up being the suit and it became -- i thought there was a lot of hype built around it, especially in today's world of social media and how fast stories can move. it became emphatic that the suit was a problem. we knew mathematically that we had empirical evidence that we felt the suit was strong. our job is to outfit you, put you in the best advantage way we can with the best products in the world an let athletes go perform. when that doesn't happen we usually have alternatives. we had a plan "a" and plan "b." lessons learned from this, i wish we had a plan "c" as well. there were things we didn't think it would get to this level, that crescendo it seems to have come to.

>> what was your reaction when you first heard? >> like anything, we've had people working on these suits for the last two years, delivering prototypes, hand in hand with the athletes, delivering the final suits january 1st. all the suits delivered by january 13th. these athletes and the teams and the coaches, you no know, they were in the suits. they had time to get comfortable with them but hadn't competed on a national level. i wish that the athletes had actually had a chance to wear them in competition. we had this suit was incredibly hyped. you had the best engineers in the world from lockheed martin helping to build it. hopefully that was the hype and that was the emphasis that would have given them the ability to win. see you in south korea in '18. >> did you get a better deal as a result of all this?

>> we doubled down literally our deal. i didn't want it to come down to a negotiation. our current deal, we'll put so much money, this will be a no brainer for you. the reason for that, again, it wasn't a pr play as much as it was a cultural play of the way we approach it from a company. which i think is a very american philosophy. when you challenge us, we're not going to run away. the colors don't run. so we're going to stand here, come back and come back stronger and hopefully the world sees that, including the dutch team as well. i know there was something animated about that. >> there was. becky has a question in a second. this was supposed to be your big international coming out party. >> yes. >> you have made, you have dominated the north american market as a large portion of your sales. >> yes. >> this was supposed to be the thing that was going to launch you internationally. is there lasting damage to your brand and your plans? >> not at all. >> as a brand, a company, i think you're never weak enough

to put everything on one thing. this was a piece of it. the olympics are a global stage. we're also very proud number one that the united states has 25 medals to date, under armour has ten medals to date, including two-man bobsled with steve holcomb winning the bronze, coming back with the four-man bobsled, the defending olympic champion, the women in the skeleton. we've had a lot of success. this is one part of the story but this is certainly not the story. it's a bit more of the side show than the main event. >> becky? >> hey, kevin, hey, scott. thanks for being with us today. you did just mention the dutch coach of speed skating. we had him on with us yesterday. he was rubbing in that they won 21 medals we haven't won any. we asked him about the suits. if it was the suits? he said yes because only because the athletes think it's the suits. what do you think of that? >> there's so many variables,

from an equipment standpoint, we have the ability to eliminate some. we can control a lot of those but there are some we can't control. the hype created around the suits has given the athletes the idea that these were the fastest things in the world. some of the press was about the hearsay or conjecture saying i overheard one of the dutch coaches saying they thought it was the suit as well. it's the international trash talk going, of course it's the suit. once you have an athlete believing that they can't win, they are never going to win. belief, look at our company, our campaign. it's called under armour i will. that mentality is something which is very much a part of who we are. it's very much a part of sport, belief, belief, belief. that's the power of under armour. that is the thing that hurt the most.

that being under attack, there's a little kid out there, if they put on an under armour clothing or shoe, they were scared. this is not just something that we made up. with under armour, you should be confident you can do these things. >> it's not the suit, it's not the athlete. i don't know what that leaves. maybe it is the athlete. the dutch coach said it's football's fault. one thing that is true, netherlands, that dominate speed skating, grow up playing it, not everyone over here decides they're going to speed skate. you look at norway with cross-country skiing. some people they live, the first thing they think about in the morning is cross country.

those countries in a niche sport, maybe they have an advantage because that's what they do. and you know, all this hammering and soul searching, we're good at all these different sports. i don't know if we can compete with norway in cross country. look how we compete with the new sort of the x sports like snowboarding. we're dominating on those. they're fun at least. i'm not convinced i want to cross-country ski. i don't want to do that eight hours a day. i also don't want to speed skate that much. >> right. >> all this happy -- it's just crazy, all the conjecture we're going through. i don't pity the position you're in right now. >> i think that's why doubling down with this eight-year deal, this isn't us being naive in doing that. the one thing the coach did say, i caught the interview yesterday, it was animated to say the least. he said shani davis is without question the best speed skater in the world.

>> yes, he did. >> that didn't translate. when you look at the dutch, though, our european headquarters was in amster back. our office is in the olympic stadium. i was there two weeks ago and i had my family with me. so it was myself and 10-year-old son. they took over olympic stadium, put an olympic speed skating oval in the middle of olympic stadium and there were probably 10,000 dutch amsterdamians out there skating the oval. i got to rent the big long skates. it's like a national passion. it's football, baseball, basketball, wrapped up all into one. you're going of course they're going to excellent at it. this is who they are and their pride is built around it. but we are america. right? i think that we have some of the greatest athletes in the world. and so when we get them and i think we get them in the right position and the leadership at usoc and the leadership at speed skating with mike plant, mike's been there nine months. we'll put a new plant in place and cot back in four years and eight years and america will

hopefully be on the podium where it rightfully belongs. >> three weeks ago you were sitting here with so much momentum with earnings that blew the doors off of wall street. do you feel some of that momentum is lost? >> you don't get a choice of when to lead. 18 years doing this. we've had some great highs, right? we've had places where we've been over our skis, arrogant, we've gotten knocked down. we've had pretty big lows. we demonstrated our ability that we're a good street fighter. you know, it's not one thing that's going to take this company out. we're looking forward, we're proud of our results. we have great anticipation of how we're expecting 2014 to turn out as well. we don't think this has anything to do with the story of under armour. >> thanks for being here. >> awesome. thank you so much, scott. appreciate it. always great to see you, my friend. >> back to you. thank you both. when we come back, a former ambassador to ukraine on the

compromise reached to stop the violence in kiev. also, the great lakes are more frozen than they've been in 20 years and that is causing a major shipping problem. we'll talk frozenomics in just a bit. i don't want to think about the alternative. i don't even know how to answer that. i mean, no one knows how long their money is going to last. i try not to worry, but you worry. what happens when your paychecks stop? because everyone has retirement questions. ameriprise created the exclusive confident retirement approach. to get the real answers you need. start building your confident retirement today. like carpools... polly wants to know if we can pick her up. yeah, we can make room. yeah. [ male announcer ] ...office space. yes, we're loving this communal seating. oh, it's great. yeah. [ male announcer ] the best thing to share? a data plan. ♪ new at&t mobile share value plans for business. our best value plans ever. for example, you can get 10 gigs of data to share. and 5 lines would be $175 a month.

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welcome back. waiting for history. steve liesman joins us from washington, d.c. with the details. what's going on, steve. >> any day now, federal reserve should be releasing the transcripts of the 2008 meetings. this time last year they did it around january. they did the '07 transcripts. these are on a five-year delay. you remember 2008, don't you, becky? >> i do. i remember it well. >> a few things happened. the fed made a couple decisions. they put out the minutes and we get what's said by individuals at the meeting. and one of them just left office, ben bernanke, one of them left office a little while ago, tim geithner was at the table, kevin wurst was at the table there. take a look at the highlights there were several unscheduled meetings we'll be looking for. this was early january when the economy was almost a year later declared to have been in recession.

the federal reserve began cutting rates relatively aggressively. what were they thinking back then? they cut it to 3%. they eventually would go to zero by the end of the year. back in june of that year, they held at 2%. that's a meeting we'll be looking for. obviously there are meetings that are bracketed by bear stearns in march when jpmorgan bought bear stearns. there was a meeting in the middle of that whole kerfuffle there. we'll get probably a pretty important piece of it in the next several days we think when we hear about it. >> when we get the minutes released, that's just the highlights of it. this is the actual transcript of everything that was said around the table? >> exactly. it's discussion that has names attached to the discussion, which is why there's a big debate about the extent to which these should remain on a five-year delay or should they come out sooner? one of the reasons they want to

have a delay so there's not politics and guys aren't making decisions at the table because of how they make look tomorrow in the newspaper. >> we've spoken with a fed president who was telling us that before they knew they were being taped in these meetings, for a while, greenspan was doing it and wasn't telling people they were being recorded. when the fed governors found out, they all of a sudden started saying a lot less. when you realize there's a camera rolling, you're much more careful with what you saw, although i wonder those unscheduled meetings in particular. you have to have the explanation for why you're having them and i guess it's good stuff. >> i think you're right, becky, in had the sense that these unscheduled meetings will show true character of people when they were in the middle of the crisis. and i'm interested, you know we've developed this hawkish dovish thing much more starkly than we have in the past, i

think, if you go back before the crisis, the lines were not so clearly drawn. this will be the genesis of that. i'm interested in how guys were charlie ploser, how were they thinking thing? looking at the whole pattern, how it developed back then will be significant. >> steve, thank you. looking forward to it. joining us now with more on the situation in ukraine, john herps is a former ambassador and currently director of the national defense university center for complex operations. mr. ambassador, great to have you. where to start on this. the world is watching very closely right now. and i wonder, given the reaction to what we've seen so far, is it

possible to just put down these demonstrations at this point, which is probably what he wanted to do initially, but is that still a viable option for the power that's in power right now? >> there was always a question whether mr. yanukovych had control of security forces enough to sweep the streets of kiev clean. i think we've seen over the past two or three days he does not have that power. he has control over certain number of police -- certain number of the elite unit but not enough to push people off the streets, enough to murder them, use sniper fire to murder them, to use live fire to murder them but not enough to restore order. >> would you think somewhere right now vladimir putin is like gritting his teeth and going, wow, the olympics, i'm thwarted here. because they need -- i don't

know, will the opposition accept half measures? >> i think mr. putin wants mr. yanukovych to restore order by any means possible. putin's point man for ukraine has said that publicly last week. putin does not control yanukovych, though he does have some influence. as for the outcome, i think we're seeing today the outline of a deal. mr. yanukovych has said he's willing to have constitutional reform, which will reduce his powers. he's willing to have early elections. the strange thing is, they're talking about having ukraine's parliament vote on those constitutional reforms in september. i don't understand why they need to wait. i'm sure the demonstrators will not accept that delay. if they were to establish the reform right away and if the leaders of the opposition, one of them became prime minister,

in addition to mr. yanukovych, i think they'd be able to resolve this. >> mr. putin, has he ever gotten the short end of the stick like that? we let him walk all over us. >> i don't know if we let him walk all over us. mr. putin tried very hard to mr. make sure mr. yanukovych became president at that time, via a fraudulent election. he lost big-time in ukraine at that time. looks like he will lose again today, today meaning in this crisis. >> that sounds good. i don't know if you saw "the journal" editorial today. did he have designs on bringing ukraine back into a greater russia? >> well, i don't know about that. but his policy has been to ensure ukraine does not have a close economic relationship with europe, that ukraine becomes part of mr. putin's euro-asian

economic. the policies that mr. putin are not in ukraine's interest. for ma matter, the policies are not in their best interest. >> is there so much widespread unrest in the ukraine that the only sustainable solution has to come from within the country, from its citizenry and from a change in the legal system and the voting and the laws and not from the eu, not from russia and not from the united states? >> what's happening in ukraine is overwhelmingly a ukrainian affair. this crisis was brought on, not so much by yanukovych's decision to back away from the agreement with the eu, this crisis was brought on by 3.5, 4 years of growing repression in ukraine

since yanukovych became president in 2010. the walk away from the eu deal in november by yanukovych was simply the straw that broke the camel's back. and if you look back, the first demonstrations against that decision only involve tens of thousands of ukrainians. but when yanukovych tried to push those demonstrators off the streets, he suddenly had hundreds of thousands of demonstrators. so this is all about internal domestic -- internal politics in ukraine. and the ukrainian people speaking against the repression of the last several years. >> i saw somewhere, i think it was "the financial times" the new cold war is between us and china and there's military things going on. i mean, should we be equally afraid? who should we fear more, russia or china at this point, as persons? >> i don't think we should fear either. we remain the strongest power of the world by any measure. >> okay. >> we should have prudent

policies vis-a-vis both of them. i think we do. >> all right, mr. ambassador, thank you. i feel a little better. he hasn't walked all over us. he stole that ring from bob kraft. >> yes. >> he's done some stuff. anyway, still to come. rupert murdoch gets a new bachelor pad. details off the break. "squawk box" will be right back. tony stewart: in my career, i've learned a thing or two about having the right equipment and a great crew. i've also learned how great it is to do the things you love. that's why i'm happy to be part of the bass pro family. because a name you can trust, people who stand behind you, and equipment you can count on (engine starts) mean everything to me. bass pro shops. where commitment, passion and the great outdoors all come together.

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[ man ] i don't know if this is gonna be a first or second, but this is gonna be a medal! [ man #2 ] and it looks like we could have another one of those photos! [ female announcer ] every minute. every medal. every screen. the nbc sports live extra app gives you unprecedented access to every moment of nbc universal's coverage of the sochi olympics, now on your tv. the x1 entertainment operating system, only from xfinity. welcome back, everybody.

more frozenomics for you this morning. the great lakes are frozen with more ice than we've seen in 20 years. that is creating major problems for great lakes shipping. some problems that could trickle into the rest of the economy. it's up to the u.s. coast guard to clear a path for billions of dollars in commerce. scott cohn is live aboard a coast guard cutter in michigan. what's it look like there, scott? >> we are just going through some ice on the st. claire river which connects -- ult matsly connects lake huron and erie. it turns out that the process of spri live pictures from a coast guard cutter is somewhat tricky. the st. claire river which drains out of lake huron, flows into lake st. claire, then the detroit river and into lake erie. this is critical. it's called operation coal shovel.

that is the main cargo that's going on at this time of year. there's also things like iron ore, fuel oil and all of that that flows, even in the wintertime. i'll show you some of the pictures we shot out here yesterday as we were clearing this same path and ultimately were escorting a canadian tanker from lake st. claire up to port huron here in michigan. it is easier said than done clearing all of this ice. in many places it's up to two feet thick. it's a very complicated operation because they have to judge the patterns of the ice and so on. they focus on choke points like this one. they're out here basically every day because there is just so much ice. >> as you know, we're having a very harsh winter. we're seeing ice at historical levels, in areas we don't normally see them. our coast guard fleet has been working hard to do our best to keep the waterways open. traffic does get slowed down. by the end of the deed we try to

get them moving through to their destination. >> it gets slowed down quite a bit according to industry sources. it's taking as much as a week to do what would normally be a one huff day trip because they have to to get through this ice. they can't go very fast, and even this coast guard cutter as strong as it is, it takes some -- sometimes you have to make multiple runs to get through this ice which we hope to show you a little bit of later today. one of the big issues that they're starting to look at now more which comes up from lake superior down through the great lakes and to the steel mills in places like lake erie, there already are spot shortages in terms of what they like to stockpile. that could ultimately if this persists lead to production delays in terms of steel. the industry is watching that. and, you know, the great lakes spring shipping season begins in less than a month. and they're a little bit concerned that that's going to be delayed or it's going to be a rough start. and you can see the economic

impact that would flow from that, guys? >> scott, thank you very much. it definitely looks like some rough sledding and we'll be watching later today for more of those pictures, again, that is scott cohn. when we come back, we'll wrap up the week with an update from the olympics with brian sullivan and get more thoughts from our guest host. the dow futures are up, but only 11 points of fair value. [ male announcer ] nearly 7 million clients.

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oh, okay, i get it. this is the "squawk" closing ceremony. let's get our final update from sochi. brian sullivan joins us now. he's winging his way back, you know, if i were you, i'd tell these guys, look, i'm here, i'm staying for the closing ceremony unless you want to come back, but if you want to stay, you go ahead and stay. it's okay with me. >> i appreciate it. i would love to stay, joe, but i want to get back and see you in person. every day away is torture, physical and emotional. >> i wasn't taking into account our personal thing. anyway, you got a package? >> reporter: i do. i do, actually. because, listen, if you're like me, right, you probably watched curling on cnbc and thought, why

is this in the olympics, how hard could it be, got the gold medal game on cnbc tonight. i thought, this is kind of an easy thing. then i went and tried it for myself. watch and learn. ♪ curling is sometimes called chess on ice. it was thought to have begun in 16th century scotland. debuted at the nagano winter games and really came into its own in salt lake city and now it's an olympic blockbuster. you go, rock. where are my sweepers? ♪ so, how does it work? well, two teams of four different people take turns pushing that 42-pound block of granite known as delivering the rock, sweeping the stone. down 146 feet of ice. scoring in curling is a lot like bocci, you want to get the rocks inside the target, what they call the house. the center of the target right here is known as the button. and for each of your stones or

rocks that you get closer to the button than your opponent, you get a point. so, for this go, yellow would get two. red would get none. on the ice, the rocks tend to curve or curl. often on purpose for strategic advantage. all this frantic sweeping creates heat which helps propel the stone down the ice. there's a lot of calories burned, believe me, and the university of ottawa says your heart rate can go up as much as 200 beats a minute because you are doing this a bunch of times, my heart rate is right around 160 and i've only done this a couple of times. come on, baby. that is a good throw. so, guys, you got the gold medal game on tonight. you've got canada versus great britain. the canadian women, by the way, winning the gold medal last night, going undefeated, the

first time it ever happened. the way i look at it, curling is kind of like darts, it is easy to do, it's exceptionally to do well over and over and over again. so, i had a lot of fun. thankfully my producer cut out the part where i did a complete header onto my back. so, i appreciate that. thank you. >> all right, brain. thanks. and, you know, i figured it out. canadians are really good at things that -- on ice, i mean, it's -- >> yeah. >> right? >> oit's cold. >> including putting them into a cocktail glass. i've seen that here at the olympics, too. >> all right. we know the best at that arethe thesy siberians. we'll see you monday and we'll reconnect and it will be a joyous thing for us, so we'll see you then. let's get back to our guest host. see? >> well, done. >> there's a reason there's a "j" there and charles campbell.

what should we take away from all of this? someone wrote -- did i say happy hs? did i say that earlier? yeah, i did about all the surrounding suit stuff and the football stuff and all that. >> i didn't even catch it. >> yeah, i did. someone wrote in. i don't know what that stands for. but, anyway, what should we take away from your appearance today? what do you want us to remember about you? >> what i will say is the economy will continue to expand 3%, 3.5%. we're coming out of the effects of the weather-related distortions we saw that with claims with year over year data. american goods and services continue to be demanded by overseas businesses and consumers whether it's apple, whether it's boeing, whether it's google. >> okay, good. all right. >> having a trading range for a couple of months wouldn't be the worst thing in the world after last year's big run. >> that's interesting. >> we won't get clean data for a couple of months with the weather, you know, the market went ahead of earnings last year

and maybe a few months of sideways movements would be a nice consolidation, and we're seeing more volatility. currencies are kind of running the show right here, especially dollar/yen and maybe we just need the markets to sort of digest everything for a few months. >> thank you very much, it's been great having you guys here. before we kick it over to "squawk on the street," though, we do have an announcement, there's a new little "squawk"-er who has just arrived, our producer meredith tironi gave birth to a beautiful little girl, meredith tteresa. yay! >> she's out, this is a good reason for her to be out, guess. she's really good at -- >> by the way, she's been here all the way through. >> when ann is out, you know what it means, more greco. >> yay. >> i mean, hopefully it's worth

it. i hope she enjoys this little baby she has now. >> that's joe's way of saying he misses you. >> the rest of us pay. >> have a great weekend, everybody, that does it for us. right now it's time for "squawk on the street." ♪ good friday, morning, welcome to d"squawk on the street." cramer is back on monday. big interview coming up this morning. hewlett-packard chief meg whitman fresh from better-than-expected earnings last night. we'll get an exclusive update on hp's turnaround plan which, david, appears to be going pretty well here along with the stock. >> the stock has certainly been a very strong performer. plenty of doubters when you read the notes, carl, from the sell side. i would not say they have the wind at their back to a certain extent in terms of the longer turnarounds and whether