members, their families and survivors of those who died on active duty will not pay the annual participation fees charged to other retirees and would pay a smaller share of costs for health care than other retirees. back to you. >> thank you, jane. that does it for us on "power lunch" with a big triple digit rally on wall street. brian sullivan makes a triumphant return now from sochi as "street signs" takes to the air. we're back. i don't know if it's triumphant. did you win a trophy? when you were off? >> i won a chocolate trophy. i have already eaten it. >> that's our triumphant return right there. happy monday, everybody. stocks are making a triumphant stock to the week. maybe all the problems around the world are pushing money right back here in the good old usa. welcome to "street signs." the markets, the stop totop sto

today. we also have what ford may be doing that has tech heads scratching their heads. what commodity you likely use every day is spiking and how to profit from it. one "jeopardy" contestant is driving people insane. what he may be able to teach you about investing and apparently we landed an interview with arthur chu. he will be here. >> lots of questions for him. that's a nice way to start the week, isn't it? he will be on the show later on. and a classic merger monday hoping to propel the s&p to new record highs today. it has now curled its way back into the black for 2014 so the dow is the only major average that is lower for this year so far. but it does win the runner-up prize because it is still on pace for its best monthly gain since last july. you should also take a look, the dow is currently up by 169 points. we could possibly get the first 200 point gain of 2014 if it just tries a little harder going into the close today. as for the nasdaq composite, it

has been the outperformer of the major indices so far this year and is trading at new 13 1/2 year highs for the second consecutive session. brian? over the past few years, loyal viewer, you know that on "street signs" we have labeled this the teflon market and also the honey badger market. because no bit of bad news seems to stick and for five years, stocks just don't seem to give a you know. but now time to retire those tired terms and break out some new lingo. dom chu has been digging in on the rally man market. >> to say the stock market has been resilient in the face of adversity would be a gross understatement. we are at historic highs yet again and that 6% pull-back we got from mid-january to early february is now just a distant memory for many. this rally man here has been bullet-proof so far. take a look at things like the faltering housing recovery. home builder sentiment's on the rocks and home sales are slowing again. it just doesn't matter for that one. what about the jobs market? the jobs market looks like it

could be losing footing after a couple bad months of employment data. again, it doesn't matter. that's another big one. what about the weather front, the polar vortex, what polar vortex. sure, economists are taking down their gdp estimates. ceos are already managing down earnings expectations. again for rally man, it just doesn't matter. what about those international concerns, all the violence in ukraine, emerging market economic slowdowns, it just doesn't matter again. what about the american consumer? certainly we are not spending as much as we thought we were going to, and that consumer spending picture makes up more than two-thirds of u.s. gross domestic product. again, it just doesn't matter. rally man continues to shrug off these concerns and every step back is making room for two or three steps forward. it's been that way since the depths of the financial crisis in march of '09. it continues to be that way now but like super man, even rally man here has got some kind of weakness. the real question, guys, is what is rally man's kryptonite like super man has? >> that is the question,

absolutely. an excellent report. i'm very disappointed you did not wear your rally man green spandex outfit. maybe next time. >> how do you know? >> maybe underneath. maybe just on weekends. td ameritrade saw its daily trades increase by 28% in january compared to a year ago. the question we have is are retail investors back and what does that mean for the rally? let's ask david kelly from jpmorgan funds. david, what do you think is fueling this rally? is it safe for the retail investor to get in as the s&p is once again at record highs? >> yeah. i think it is relatively safe to get into u.s. equities. they are still not that expensive. i think the real key to this thing here, you have two rails, one is 2% growth and one is 3% growth. we are oscillating between those. as long as we stay somewhere in that range, we are going to see unemployment fall, we will see wages rise, we will see interest rates rise and earnings rise.

so to some extent, you were just talking about rally man, there's a certainly bit of truth to this thing. so long as you can get growth between 2% and 3%, you will get both interest rate increases and earnings increases. i think that's what's making people feel comfortable about putting money into equities. >> do you agree, paul, that it is safe for the retail investor to get into these levels? >> yeah. i think it's relatively safe. there is all sorts of worries that investors are becoming too complacent but for most of this bull market, it's been shoot first, ask questions later, maybe sell first, ask questions later. but to that point, last week we saw some signs that investors are becoming a little bit more comfortable not quite so fast to hit the sell button. for instance, we saw the weak china pmi on wednesday below 50. every other time in 2013 that was below 50, the s&p the next day averaged a decline of about 1%. and we went up in the face of that last week. the other factor is we saw the violence in the ukraine and the protests.

every time last year we saw those kind of protests in europe or the middle east, it was good for a sell-off in stocks. we just didn't get it last week. it's a sign that investors are certainly more comfortable owning stocks but i think they are far from overly optimistic in where we were in the late '90s. >> it's interesting because you look at europe, we are seeing what's happening in ukraine, emerging markets in argentina, some china concerns. gold has proven itself human. had a little bit of a run lately but overall down well from its highs of a couple years ago. most viewers probably cannot afford a ferrari. what else is there? are u.s. equities the best option still as they have been for the last few years? >> i think for the long run, i would look at european equities carefully and look at emerging markets. we just talked about this earlier today. there are clear problems still for europe. there's a real deflation threat on the periphery, the real banking system issues, and emerging markets, you have these headlines. when it comes to u.s. equities, people are buying into the notion of well, i really should

have had more money in stocks. then they look at the overall environment, they see this cool-down in the economy right now which does seem to be weather-related to some extent, but getting past what's going on in january and february, it does look like growth will pick up. there are no major fiscal problems, very little to stop the u.s. economy from growing. that is the easiest place to put money if you have money sitting in cash earning zero. that's what's helping here. there are better opportunities long run in europe and emerging markets but right now, this is the combination of looking pretty good and also not looking quite as dangerous as some other markets to invest. >> back to the cleanest dirty sheet in the laundry basket theme. paul, i want to ask, because you said maybe investors, particularly retail investors, are coming out of their bunker mentality. let me propose an alternative to that. are they thinking that maybe because of the weak economic data recently, that yellen will blink? that maybe the taper will be tapered? is that a possibility for why stocks are rallying? >> in the last week we have heard some clients asking us is that a factor to consider here.

i think as the weather starts to clear up here, i think the economic data will become a little bit more improved, then we have to see what happens from there. i think at this point, to try and be bullish on equities because we are going to get, you know, a slowdown of the taper or an increase back up from $65 billion to $75 billion or $85 billion, i don't think that's -- >> but earnings came in better than expected. i know we got to go but earnings have been reported even on the top line better than expected. there is some real news. it's not just janet yellen's nature. >> absolutely. good companies can make good money in either 2% or 3% economy. also, this isn't just hope for more help from the fed. if it was, long term interest rates would be going down but they're not. they're going up. >> gentlemen, always good to talk to you. thank you for joining us. on deck, the one thing that has all of us scratching our heads. plus, herb is back. he's in the house.

we can actually see him. he's got three new stocks to put on your radar. here's your answer first. he is arguably the most hated "jeopardy" contestant in history. the question, who is that guy? he has a strategy that is driving traditionalists nuts. he will join us for a live interview. can he teach us anything about how to play the markets? save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance.d everybody knows that. well, did you know pinocchio was a bad motivational speaker?

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a cornucopia of news on the

cell phone front. this is two of the headlines that have some scratching their heads. six months after being bumped by microsoft, nokia is rolling out google android powered phones. a report says ford may be close to replacing microsoft in its cars with blackberry software. let's bring in an analyst specializing in this software. you also have jon fortt, who went to spain for the mobile world congress. jon, we will get to you in just a second. first, what's your take on these headlines? anything so far surprising? >> i think the nokia announcement is legacy announcement that was in motion so i don't think this is a big deal. the big event for microsoft is just getting back into the mobile race. we think it will take time. the new ceo's biggest challenge, in our opinion. as it relates to ford, we spoke

to microsoft. they didn't have a big comment. i think it's probably more of a marketing blow than fundamental blow. as many of the pieces inside the ford processing for speech, if you will, was actually powered by nuance, it wasn't powered by microsoft. we will see what happens there. i don't think it's as big an issue as the press is making it out. >> glad you said that. i want to follow up with that. when i saw the blogs today and the headlines about oh, microsoft gets embarrassed or whatever, i thought this was in progress before the devices business was bought by microsoft but others made such a big deal about it, i was questioning and thinking are we getting something wrong here. these folks should know better than me so why, then, are they making a big deal about it? >> it was already in process, number one. number two, it's a very low end phone. all the reviews have been pretty mediocre, to be honest. then when you think about microsoft, their view on mobility is going to be about being open. i think you will see this.

the operating system doesn't generate the revenue. what does are the applications. we have seen that so we think microsoft over time will become more open to unveiling their application across platforms, so do you put skype on an iphone? absolutely. i talk to my parents all the time on my iphone with microsoft on top of it. >> yeah, right. >> that's where they're going to make the money. >> what about you, dan? you think this is worth making a big deal about? >> it just speaks to some of the issues with the nokia acquisition. it was a head scratcher from the beginning. i think it will be a mt. everest like climb to accelerate growth on mobile. again, there is a lot of issues and this is one for satya nadella. >> when we talked about head scratching, i'll tell you why we think it's head scratching. for the record, i'm a blackberry devotee. i love the interface. i love my blackberry.

when i was giving it in to get an iphone because of course, increasingly companies are supporting the apple, iphone as opposed to the blackberry, i found all of these. you know what these are? these are the blackberrys that people had to give in. >> this was hot. >> look at that. look at some of these. >> 2004, you were money if you broke out one of these. >> why would ford be investing in a platform that is increasingly not being used in a market -- >> it doesn't really affect the revenue for microsoft but this is a black eye. it just speaks from a technology perspective some of the issues they've had with ford sync and if by going to blackberry, again, this is what i view as just continued issue that microsoft has on the technology front and some of the challenges they have. i think this is just another example of it. >> jon fortt, what's your take on all of this? >> reporter: here's the common thread in both of these things. it's microsoft is lacking when it comes to really lightweight

operating system software. when it comes to phones, you need really lightweight software to run on cheap devices that are really what's needed in the emerging markets and windows phone was not able to get down to that level. they are getting it closer but it's still not there yet. that's why nokia needed to go with android at that level. then on the car side, quenex which blackberry acquired around 2010 has a long legacy in cars being a lightweight operating system, not so buggy perhaps as some of the complaints we have heard about ford sync running on top of microsoft. that's a common thread. if satya nadella wants to succeed in low end phones, there needs to be a flavor of software that can perform at that level. >> good point. daniel, brent, jon, thank you for joining us today. are you going to take that back? >> no, it's actually on the cingular network. anybody remember that? >> this is cingular as well. yeah. >> now gone. next up, herb greenberg is

here. he is ready to do some trash talking, literally. he will put three new stocks on your radar you should be watching out for. later on, the coffee prices have been soaring. they are up 57% over the last year. of course, you haven't been watching because you have no vested interest whatsoever in coffee doing well. how long until your favorite coffee joint jolts up prices? waiting for the little guys, the people like us who love our coffee. always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances. [ car alarm chirps ] ♪

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have you seen this man? viktor yanukovych, former president of ukraine. there is an arrest warrant out for him on mass murder charges. question now, though, is just who is running ukraine on a day-to-day basis? with russia and europe hovering, every hour is critical. michelle caruso-cabrera making her way from sochi, russia to kiev, ukraine. thank you for going. i know you weren't feeling well at the end of last week. you had a great couple weeks of reporting in sochi.

i know this has been tough on you physically. we appreciate it. what's the latest on the ground? >> reporter: well, viktor yanukovych is still missing. last he was seen was in the eastern part of the country which is very pro-russian and his strong political support base. the last report we heard was that he said good-bye to his security detail and disappeared. there is an arrest warrant out for him because the acting leadership of this country wants to charge him or make him face charges in the slaughter that occurred in the square right behind me, where we saw protesters die as they rose up against the government last week. same time, this country needs a financial bailout. they are also facing a financial crisis, not just a political crisis, and just moments ago, the white house spokesperson jay carney said that the u.s. was ready to step in and help with financial aid along with western europe. here's what he said. >> the united states working with partners around the world stands ready to provide support for ukraine as it takes the reforms it needs to to get back

to economic stability. this support can complement an imf program by helping to make reforms easier and by putting ukraine in a position to invest more in health and education, to help develop ukraine's human capital. >> reporter: complement an imf program. complement an imf program. what that means is first and foremost, western europe and the imf are going to have to come through first and what that means if ukraine accepts a loan from the imf, they have to accept a lot of really painful conditions that they haven't been willing to do in the past, at least viktor yanukovych wasn't willing. maybe this new leadership is willing to do it. things like no longer subsidizing the price of natural gas for the population. very high levels of energy consumption in this country because gas is very cheap because it's paid for by the government. that means it's paid for by everybody through their taxes. the imf wants that to change. they think that benefits the

rich and big business and that shouldn't be the case. that's one of the reforms that will have to happen. politically unpopular. the question is, will this new acting government embrace that or will they take much easier money with fewer strings attached from russia. guys, back to you. >> sleeping about two or three hours a night so feel better. stay safe. herb greenberg is right here. you are back. great to see you again. once again, you brought the cold weather with you which is kind of crazy considering you have come from san diego. come on. where's a little warm weather? we are calling this the herb trifecta. you brought three stocks we need to watch. the first one is one of the country's largest handlers of medical waste. i understand you have written about elevated cancer rates near one of their incinerators in utah. what's going on? >> i red-flagged these three stocks in reality check, my new newsletter at the street, and

what you have effectively is what i wrote about, i questioned whether there is actually a federal criminal probe of stericycle related to some of the issues at this utah facility. the company never called me back. but on the earnings call, they were asked about investigations and they just sort of side-stepped it. there are some issues with this facility. it's close to a housing development. you could say why do we care about some facility in utah. this is where local press has stories sometimes, the national press misses, and the question is if there were to be an issue here where they had to close the thing, they may move it, but if they had to close it, they couldn't get permits to move it even though they may in utah, what happens, how does that affect the company. this is the medical waste facility incinerator in the west, in all the west, where they take body parts and other things. >> how has that affected the stock? today it's moving higher. >> up to 115. all it has done is gone higher. based on your reporting, you wonder if you have owned it for

awhile, you made money in it, now you have the concerns you're bringing up, is there a reason to continue owning it? >> look, the analysts love this company. they don't raise any concerns about it. they minimized this after i came out with my report, i want to point that out, but we have to take a look and see what's going to happen again. it's not in national press. it's the local press. it's worth watching. >> will we also talk about waste management with a different twist. this is clean harbor. they handle environmental and chemical cleanups. >> this has been on my radar for a few months here. it's been one i have been looking at. they report later this week. this is almost a tragic comedy of errors of a company that came out, it is so well known, the management is well liked in their world of cleaning up hazardous waste. they expanded out into the oil refinery cleanup business, into the oil refiner, and they bought safety clean, a re-refiner business. the importance is they went out of their core competency right when oil prices fell. it's clobbered them on the margins front.

the company has effectively said 2014, everything is going to be fine. i will tell you, this thing is priced at 20 times earnings, its old core competency, its old business. >> you know holwho else is nerv on this company? jim grant. see, now you didn't want me to interrupt you but now you are happy that i did because i gave an opinion that agreed with yours. >> i always appreciate that. >> nothing has changed. except you are tanner and thinner. >> thank you. that's what happens when you move to california. the key thing is that again, they are priced at 20 times earnings. refiners are priced six to seven times earnings. somewhere in between is where they should be. >> let's move away from waste. your third here is a cloud software company that helps housing managers figure out rental pricing. i guess a little the same way that airlines price seats. >> reporting after the bell and the issue here, mark roberts has

been talking about this company for two years. the issue is this. they built themselves on acquiring 26 companies over the past few years. what the concern is, is the quality of their earnings, their organic growth looks like it's growing but according to mark roberts, there is creative accounting. what happens when -- so we'll see what comes out when they report after the close. >> i thought we banned the term cloud computing. >> you did. you did. it was like -- >> yes, but -- exactly. >> intellectual banning. >> because all computing is cloud computing. there is no native computing anymore. therefore, everything is cloud. >> good point. good point. no more cloud. >> the combustion powered automobile will one day dominate the skies. >> whatever you say. >> thank you. the defense department out with its new budget within the past hour. is now the time to add defense stocks? we will talk about it. and we have been waiting for it. the most reviled "jeopardy" contestant ever will join us

live. he has fans outraged and couldn't care less. we will talk to arthur chu. [ male announcer ] the wright brothers started in a garage. mattel started in a garage. disney started in a garage. amazon started in a garage. ♪ the ramones started in a garage. my point? some of the most innovative things in the world come out of american garages. introducing the lighter, faster cadillac cts. 2014 motor trend car of the year. ain't garages great? to manage your money.r guy around 2 percent that's not much, you think except it's 2 percent every year. go to e*trade and find out how much our advice and guidance costs. spoiler alert.

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. it is street talk time, with stock news and views you can use. that actually rhymes. okay. shares moving higher as it prepares its chinese media site, sina corp. >> 4.44%, bad number. >> bad luck. it should be 8.88. that would be good luck. >> it plans the ipo in the second quarter. some people think around $500 million in worth, maybe higher. just a name to keep an eye on today. >> absolutely is. our next stock is halliburt oha

moving higher after a strong buy from raymond james. >> stock up 2.25% to 56.56, one of the world's biggest oil service companies. raymond james increasing the target as well to 70 bucks. that's about 23% higher than the current price. wells fargo, however, downgrading halliburton to a market perform from outperform. they think the firm is fairly valued. big time conflicting calls there. >> stock number three, cummings. the company trading at an all time high. >> up 3% to $147 and change, upgraded to a buy from neutral at isi group last week initiated by deutsche bank. be careful. the average target of wall street analysts together is 150. in an aggregate, all the street doesn't see as much upside nearly as isi does. >> good point. okay. the chinese internet search

service has been upgraded to buy at goldman sachs. chinese theme today. >> .3% but the target goes to $220. stock's at 173. so $47 of upside seen at goldman sachs at baidu. surprised the stock's not moving more. >> let's talk some numbers. >> we do have every day. we hit the stock or stocks or indexes from a technical and fundamental perspective. today, we look at the defense names as a group. even with concerns about defense spending, all these stocks have done is gone higher. on your charts today, carter worth. and steve cortez. steve, for a couple years now. we heard defense department cuts will slam these stocks. guess what? if you sold them, you made a mistake. should we sell them now if we still own them? >> today's action is revealing that once again, these stocks are vaulting higher despite

supposedly bad headlines. here's what i think the investors of these stocks know. defense budgets are not going to be cut. they never are. there is no vested interest in cutting the defense budget. yes, we can talk about it, it's been talked about in the past. didn't happen with the sequester showdown, didn't happen with the government shutdown showdown and it's not going to happen this time. only people that want to cut the defense budget are hard right libertarians and hard left liberals. those are very small cohorts. the vast middle wants to continue the corporate welfare and this is a chance for a regular investor to shake hands with corporate welfare and buy these stocks. >> don't complain. get in on the game. all right. carter, let's look at the defense index. technically, emotion aside, is this a buy? >> it's gorgeous. this is as well-defined -- >> gorgeous? wow. >> it checks back to trend over and over which is to say it shakes out people over the last year, year and a half. here's what's really important. if you look at a longer term chart, five year chart, this entire industry group

underperformed for three years, 2010, '11 and '12. this last year of strength is really playing catchup. it's dominated by three big names, honeywell, united tech and boeing. these sort of more general contractors are influencing this aggregate. we think it has plenty of room to run. >> i have never heard a chart being called gorgeous before. there you go. it's a first here on "street signs." you heard it first. gorgeous chart. >> it is. really is. be sure to check out the online edition of talking numbers, part of our partnership with yahoo! finance. coming up next, buzzkill. coffee prices are up 57% this year. this is why i'm now drinking tear. is it just a matter of time before coffee kings jack up the price of your morning joe? later on, how the most hated jeopardy contestant ever may be able to teach you about smarter investing. arthur chu joining us. this fine show airs immediately after "street signs."

what's the clue? >> i have long been a trivia answer. welcome back. we have much more on this huge rally today. what is this all about? can the s&p close at a record high? stick around for that. also, we look at whether the fast and furious mergers and acquisition pace in the tech sector could fuel the next leg of any rally. then dreamworks animation's taking a page out of disney's playbook, announcing plans for a "sh "shrek" entertainment venue. look forward to seeing you at the top of the hour. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 trading inspires your life. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 life inspires your trading. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 where others see fads... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 ...you see opportunities. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 at schwab, we're here to help tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 turn inspiration into action. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 we have intuitive platforms tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 to help you discover what's trending. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and seasoned market experts to help sharpen your instincts.

tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 so you can take charge tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 of your trading. a 401(k) is the most sound way to go. let's talk asset allocation. sure. you seem knowledgeable, professional. would you trust me as your financial advisor? i would. i would indeed. well, let's be clear here. i'm actually a dj. [ dance music plays ] [laughs] no way! i have no financial experience at all. that really is you? if they're not a cfp pro, you just don't know. find a certified financial planner professional who's thoroughly vetted at letsmakeaplan.org. cfp -- work with the highest standard. like carpools... polly wants to know if we can pick her up. yeah, we can make room. yeah. [ male announcer ] ...office space. yes, we're loving this communal seating. oh, it's great. yeah. [ male announcer ] the best thing to share? a data plan. ♪ new at&t mobile share value plans for business. our best value plans ever. for example, you can get 10 gigs of data to share. and 5 lines would be $175 a month. plus you can add a line anytime for $15 a month.

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[ male announcer ] find out how fast aflac can pay you at aflac.com. let's take a look at how the markets are doing. look at the dow, currently up by 171 points. if it makes it to 200 points and closes at that level or above, it will be the first 200 point gain for this year. the s&p of course is today at a new record high. meantime, do you got milk? no, you don't. think again. the milk industry group behind the decades-old got milk campaign is ditching the popular slogan in favor of a new tagline, which is milk life.

the move comes as the semi-scary milk processor education program tries to highlight the health benefits of milk and boost sluggish sales. the group says it plans to spend more than $50 million on the new campaign. we can analyze it at the milk bar. >> we can even put a little milk in our coffee. but it's getting more expensive. java prices up more than 50% this year alone and the year is still young. let's get to jackie deangelis at the nymex. everyone wants to know how much higher it could go. >> reporter: coffee junkies are going to have to brace for price hikes at their local coffee shops and here's why. if you look at that intraday chart, 50% we have seen a gain in coffee futures since this year started alone. now, the reason for that is because brazil is the largest -- world's largest coffee producer and has been seeing unseasonably hot temperatures, hot and dry weather not enough rain, becoming a problem for the coffee bean crop where it won't

necessarily develop the way that it should. that is what analysts are worried about at this point. analysts say it takes a little bit of a time period before sort of the futures price impacts your price of a cup of coffee at the store, especially for chains like starbucks and the larger ones like coffee bean, they will negotiate contracts, they will hedge a little bit. they will try to keep coffee prices stable. but others say it will dip down to those mom and pop stores who don't negotiate big contracts and you will start to feel it hit your wallet. meantime, we are watching coffee futures today and they are up more than 4%. back to you. >> thank you very much. so how will that coffee spike impact what you pay for a cup of joe? let's bring in dan cox, owner and president of coffee enterprises on our newsline, herb greenberg is here. dan, it's important to note there are really two types of beans in a broad perspective. from brazil, as i understand it, it's mostly the lower priced robusta bean. where will this hit consumers? >> actually, that's not quite accurate.

there are two types of coffees grown in brazil. one is robusto and the other is the higher grown irabica. this will definitely affect consumers. it's just a matter of time. the big companies do have the tools to hedge but hedging is very expensive and only the largest companies do that. you are buying -- >> okay. it seems as if we lost dan. we will try and get him back. bit of technical difficulty. what do you think about this? if we can get him back, he was going to say, i believe, maybe kraft or folger's could be among the big companies to move to passing the increase to us, the consumer. >> when they pass along the price, whether it's when you buy your can of whatever it is, that definitely has some of the beans that are impacted. but if you end up, going to starbucks or wherever you get your coffee, it's the old they will raise the price, they will benefit from it when prices

fall, they will then get the margin because -- >> because last year, we saw coffee prices tanking, yet they absolutely did not pass on those cost savings to us. >> which is always the case. >> shocking. >> corporate america did not lower prices. >> you know, when you look at -- >> what's next? >> when you look at companies say like one of my favorites, green mountain, when you take a look at that, they will always point out the rise in coffee prices as a negative when they're hit by earnings but when the positive occurs, it's sort of just a footnote. >> will it hurt demand? will it destroy demand? or will people just because they are addicted, they will still have their cup from starbucks in the morning? >> has it ever impacted demand? i would suspect the answer is no. >> i agree. i flipped it in my head. i'm still a little jetlagged. yes, i'm admitting i was wrong about something. take it easy. >> i didn't say anything. >> i flipped tonight my head. robust is the cheaper bean and more the mass-produced coffee.

the other is the higher end, starbucks of the world. it's important to know what you're drinking. still, this is the magnitude of the coffee spike has been spectacular. if you look at a five-year chart of coffee, it was like this. >> it's -- >> like a sochi ski run. then it was the lift basically going up. >> dan makes an excellent point. apparently about 85% are speculators in the coffee trade. which can make things -- if you speculate, it could make things -- >> he also -- >> it can -- >> he mentioned the cost of hedging and how that is so much more expensive than you can expect so not every company can do it. >> i think this might be an excellent time to bring up a bet. a bet that i should add does not actually finish until july 16th so do not claim victory just yet. >> not claiming victory. >> no comment. >> i claim victory when i make the bet. >> if our viewers don't know, if they have been living under a rock, in july we made a bet what

would be the better performer over a year. i said coffee. specifically the cafe etf. you said gdx, the gold miner index. you are doing very well. in any other trade, you would probably be in the lead. >> you know -- >> my 57% gain, by the way, in a month, is helping out. >> i heard about the speculate o ors, it can go the other way. >> my 10% gain in the gdx, should i get out of it now before it becomes volatile again. >> the difference is, in case our viewers wonder what the heck, i don't own any of this stuff. for me, this is fake money. we are not allowed to buy and sell stuff like that. for me, this is just sort of a prediction based on what i believe will happen. but if i did own it for real, the cafe etf, doggone right i would be trimming. i knew coffee would go up. i used to trade commodities. i did not think it would have this kind of gain, nor do i think this kind of gain in any commodity is generally sustainable. >> i do own, for the record --

>> well, you can. i would go buy a cup of coffee. i'll buy you one, sir, with my fake gains. >> go and buy him a k-cup that's free. >> tell you what, not to be arthur chu and toot my horn, but with the nikkei prediction from last year and the coffee prediction this year, i can fake retire. >> when you come to san diego, i will take you to the bird rock coffee roasters. >> no, no. i want to go to juanita's for one of the best tacos in the world. then we will skinny dip in half mo moon bay. >> that part of the deal will not be done. next up, big nerd alert. the man some call the most hated contestant in history is here to give you game theory ideas and the guy who basically came up with the ideas that arthur chu is following. should be a spectacular debate. arthur, you're on camera. smile.

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calling this guy the villain of jeopardy. his name is arthur chu. he returns to the popular game show tonight to defend his four-game winning streak. his game strategy though is unorthodox to jeopardy purists and it's made him a pariah and a hero on social media. >> that's won more than $102,000 by jumping across the jeopardy board. he wants to hunt for daily doubles and he wagers just enough on the final round to tie the next contestant. he has some people screaming at their tvs. other people like me thinking he's doing it right, he's winning. let's bring in arthur joining us now and also keith williams. he's a former contestant, college champion. he talked about a lot of these game theory ideas that arthur

chu is now using. arthur, i think you're a genius. i think your strategy to keep people off their feet and guessing where you're going, providing that one second or so gap where you have a clear line of thought and they do not is smart. how much longer are you going to keep this up? is there some game theory now in going back to a traditionalist because the new players know what you're going to do? >> i have got to dispel a little bit of the jeopardy magic here. these shows filmed months ago, so to the extent that someone watching my past games would be getting an advantage would be the people that were on that same week because that's one day of filming. when i went back in for the next day of filming, which was this week, monday's game was first game that morning, those were a whole set of new players who didn't know anything. >> so nobody has seen you play because i know -- i didn't realize how far back apparently it was taped. so nobody would have seen you play that could wonder, okay,

he's going to bounce around, maybe he'll just now go straight down the board to keep us on our toes. >> right. well, the contestant coordinator kind of gave away that i was a jumper. that's what they call it during the orientation for that day's taping, but, you know, i don't think it's really a matter of expecting whether or not i'm going to do it. it's just that the fact that a person is doing it makes the game harder. i think once people get into a rhythm going from top to bottom, that just makes it easier on everyone. it's just a matter of even if they know i'm going to bounce around, they don't know exactly where i'm going to bounce to. >> did you ever expect to be have vilified and how do you feel about that? >> i knew i probably knew more than most because i had studied what specific people in the post had done and i had seen there were threads on message boards about people like dave madden or roger craig and really blasting them for doing this and calling themmen sportsmanlike. i knew this was a reaction a lot

of jeopardy viewers had and people keep on doing it. i was kind of expecting it. i wasn't expecting that i would get this much attention compared to like roger craig. roger craig got news articles written about him but they didn't focus so much about the online hate there was for him. it was there but the articles didn't talk about it. maybe because i'm on twitter, maybe because i've engaged with people a little more. it's turned into a different kind of story. >> it's a different age now. >> arthur and i have never met. this is the second time we've ever talked, so, hi, arthur. >> hello. >> thanks for reading my book. i'm curious, what's your favorite tweet you have swatted away so far? >> what's my favorite tweet? >> yeah. >> oh, god. i actually -- >> is that a $400 question or an $800 question? >> i think it would be a $200 question. >> my favorite was someone who said he was defending me against

his mom and stepdad. like i ruined a family dinner because i stood up for the guy on jeopardy because my stepdad was saying stuff about him because he was asian. i said thanks, and tell them i'm sorry for coming over and taking their jobs. he was like, oh, my god, he replied to me. >> this is in real life, not on world of warcraft. you've talked about other game theory type playing scenarios. do you feel like this will be the new normal then for jeopardy or do you think if and when arthur ever loses, who knows, that the next person will do what he did or just go back to i'll take $400, $600, $800? >> let me say that the bouncing he does is very difficult to pull off. >> why? >> well, the whole point is to throw off your opponents' concentration. in the meantime, you throw off your own concentration which is why it's so difficult to know that you're jumping from shakespeare to botany to science to english to something else.

that's the whole point. when you throw yourself off, it defeats the purpose. >> what do you say to people who say maybe game theory is a form of i don't want to say cheating but a little unsportsmanlike? >> a lot of people think it's like bar trivia but it's not like that. there are layers of strategy. it's kind of like a football coach watching tape before a game. >> how are you going to leverage all this notoriety? how are you going to leverage all of this twitter verse fame that you found yourself in the middle of? >> well, you know, easy come, easy go. i don't expect that people will still be talking about this in a year, though you never know. but i do have some plans for the money. i said on the show that i wanted to donate to a charity that's fighting for awareness for fi row my al ja which my wife

suffers from and take a chip tr china. >> will you be investing your winnings into u.s. equities. >> into what? >> stocks. >> my opinion is i'm more of a passive investor and i will probably invest in, you know, a ratio of total stock market index and a bond index but that's -- i don't have the money yet so i'll talk to an adviser before doing it. >> smart guy. >> yeah. >> arthur, just remember vis-a-vis twitter, if you don't have haters, you're doing something wrong so you're obviously doing something right. >> thank you. >> you're a nobody until you get a hater. we have haters. >> it means -- what did churchill say? it means you stand for something if people think you're wrong? something like that. >> can't please all of the people all the time. >> coming up, maybe a little bit of what we learned from sochi, russia. (announcer) scottrade knows our clients trade and invest their own way. with scottrade's smart text, i can quickly understand my charts, and spend more time trading.

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multi-layered security solutions keep your information safe, and secure. and responsive dedicated support meets your needs, and eases your mind. centurylink. your link to what's next. the sochi winter games are officially over. there was an interesting bit many people may have missed. as team usa walked out there was a russian song, a melody playing in the background. but those that speak russian realized the song is by a russian band and it's actually called stop screwing around america. in other words, they played basically a sort of anti-american song and the theme

is give back alaska to their rightful owners. >> you can't even call them sore lo losers. >> in the magazine it was -- they described all the olympic winter games and they talked about lake placid, undisciplined, terrible olympics. i'll tweet out the picture tonight when i get home. >> thanks for watching "street signs," everybody. >> "the closing bell" is next. welcome to "the closing bell." i'm kelly evans here at the new york stock exchange where we are on track for, believe it or not, bill, a record-breaking day. >> what a day it's been. i'm bill griffeth back here at cnbc global headquarters. on wall street nobody seems to have a case of monday blues. the s&p 500 is close, we're not there now, but we're close to an all-time high on a closing basis. the gains have been impressive across