had time. that's the best advice. don't ride that bike to south dakota. >> don't bring a diamond covered motorcycle to sturgis. >> thank you so much, robert frank, and we're closing out on a pretty good note here. the dow is up only about 0.2 of a percent but it's been a great week for the dow and the nasdaq and the s&p, even though the nasdaq is only ever so slightly. >> and because you're sunshine, i'll be rain. the dow was up triple digits. we're down. last hour of trading right now, "the closing bell." and welcome to "the closing bell" on a friday as we round out the trading day, the week, the month. i'm kelly evans. >> i'm bill griffeth. we have some action right now. we thought we would end the week, the month on a high note but stocks are losing altitude. the talk on the floor is about the situation between russia and ukraine. the acting president of ukraine is imploring vladimir putin not

to intervene with his country right now and that seems to have taken the wind out of the sails. the dow was up 125 points at its peak today, and now up just 27, and the nasdaq has turned negative. >> the s&p 500 in danger of reversing as well. we'll keep an eye on that closely. yesterday we put in the new closing high for the s&p 500 at 1848. today it looks that could be called into question. of course, the nasdaq, and this, bill, will be the question, was losing some steam even before this round -- >> biotech was pulling back. >> all of that we'll get into. if 2013 was the year of the activist investor, is 2014 the year they're overplaying their hand? there's been pushback against the likes of carl icahn and nelson peltz. sometimes even blistering public criticism. now a battle with darden restaurants. we will have a special report coming up. >> it's very, very intriguing. then a new report that shows employees of the s.e.c., the

securities and exchange commission, you know, the regulator of the stock market, not only allowed to own stock but they also seem to sell stocks that they own ahead of bad news that hurts the value of those stocks. what's wrong with this picture? is there a d.c. double standard at its worst? eamon javers has details coming up. let's zero in on how we are doing. the markets, we see the dow trying to cling to a 22-point gain. the s&p 500 is up less than one point. the nasdaq is off 26 at this hour or 0.6%, bill. >> just -- we may turn negative on the s&p in a moment. let's talk about today and the outlook in our closing bell exchange with lizzette cooper, john stolfus, david kudlow, bob pisani and rick santelli. bob, we have seen late-day sell-off anyway lately, but now

this seems to be as a result of what's going on with ukraine right here. >> i think when you take a look at the s&p 500 intraday we moved up very early on. we got chicago pmi better than expected. there's been a lot of momentum as we hit historic highs yesterday following through. you get a lot of buying coming through on the next day historic highs. we've had headlines from the ukrainian president saying russia had invaded the ukraine under the guise of an exercise, imploring the russians to stay out. there's been various headlines in the last two or three hours. we're sitting at the lows of the day. the s&p just went negative. >> and the dow. >> we were led down earlier by health care. a number of sectors were on the upside but several, including health care, have just turned negative. >> let's get to our panel and

get some perspective on what this all means as we head into the final hours of the session. we've got again about an hour left to go into the close. >> john manly, now we have this black swan coming out of ukraine and kind of raining on our parade today. do you rethink your bullishness at least in the short term or what do you do here? >> only for the next hour, bill. the way i look at it is no one wants to go home long. weebends are a long time when things happened. i don't claim to have a crystal ball but it's hard to see how that's going to severely disrupt the u.s. or world economy. can't say it won't, but i have to sort of stretch to say it will. >> you don't think this -- there's a reason to sell u.s. stocks based on unrest in another part of the country -- of the world right now? >> well, you know, i don't think it's going to amount to something that has a severe impact on the u.s. economy. the last time i heard that i guess was back in the mid '70s with the yom kippur war and the oil embargo.

you can't rule anything out, but i think it's better to be in at this point in time than to out. >> david kudlow, what's your take here? what are we learning from the action in today's trade? >> yeah, i think, bill, your question, is this a black swan event from the black sea? these external events have an ige pack impact on the market certainly in the short term. the concern is vladimir putin who essentially is a thug. we don't know which putin we're going to get on any given day, a relic from the cold war or a modern statesman. we need to not listen to what he says, but look at what he does, and we've seen armed militia and there is concern. i think where this becomes a more -- mr conceore concern to europe or the globe is if there is a disruption in glass supplies that flow through the ukraine. other than that the economy of the ukraine, not that

significant. >> lizzette, cooper, do you agree. i know you're looking at commodities right now. this could have an impact on things like natural gas if there's a disruption of supply. does this make you more bullish or what do you do? >> absolutely. i think today is kind of a microcosm of what's going on in the market overall. you have got the market kind of headed downward on fears of emerging markets. this morning was pretty positive because the news in the u.s. is benign. with a little uptick in inflation. so i think combined with what's going on in europe, we kind of see just a little trend higher in inflation and for the last three years commodities have been falling. for the beginning of the year this year we're finally seeing a little turnaround. so we did go overweight commodities a couple months ago, everything except for base metals, appreciate metals, gold. gold is benefiting from the issue was bitcoin and the uncertainty in emerging markets. ou oil, we talked about dbo,

deutsche bank role, optimized oil intention which is done very well since then. i think it's still a good entry point and also dbc. >> if you can show natural gas one more time, we saw a bit of a spike there late this afternoon, and we've come back from that spike. there it is. so, you know, obviously somebody has been thinking about the impact of what's going on in ukraine on the price of natural gas. >> and at the same time here in this country we're still thinking through the impact of another round of storms coming across the country, coming to this part of the country over the weekend and into monday. we're going it get more bad weather. next week we have the key payrolls report coming up. people are still trying to find out, john, what the direction is for the u.s. economy, how healthy is it? >> well, you know what i'd say, kelly, basically what we have in the ukraine is a good opportunity for some profit taking. it's diversion for trading rooms. it gives an opportunity -- a

catalyst for the market to take a bit of a breather but the reality is it's about the u.s., it's about a reflating economy, dealing with elements of disinflation. on a global basis, we have a world that is turning more positive as we go forward. so we'd think today is more of a side show than a main event. >> are you -- would you be buying this dip, john? >> i would be buying the dip. i think buying the dip has been the order of the day since '09, and i still think it's in place, bill. >> the other john agrees with that. i do think it's a little early for commodities. they're down but they're down for a reason. there's still no real inflationary pressure. the fed is going to push until there is. i don't have a question about longer term but it's just a long time before you get to that sort of thing, and i think the basic fundamentals for the u.s. economy are sound. >> let's get some perspective from chicago. rick santelli, talk to us about what you're seeing in this market. >> well, of course, what's going

on in ukraine does have an impact. look at intraday chart. we're down to 2.65% in tens, but i have to tell you, we couldn't quite get up to 2.70% early in the day when all lights were green for a lot of intersections. so three to five basis points is really what we're talking about. but in terms of how great everything is outside of those geo political issues, let's consider this. year-to-date we're down close to 40 basis points in ten-year note yields while the nasdaq at one point today was flirting with 4% up on the year. if we look at the eurozone, everything is grate there. we hear it every day, but look at the chart going back to 1998. they were celebrating it was 12% blended unemployment in the eurozone region. and what's further, look at how the eurocurrency popped when that was released. they were celebrating. this was wonderful news. the bar is pretty darn low. and in terms of what's going on on other parts of the global like china, we could debate what the real numbers are and the real growth is, but the wand

continu -- yuan continues to go down. we need to continue to monitor this because if they're trying to build exports by lowering their currency, i don't think it paints an aggressive picture of what the perception by the p dp is for the rest of 2014. >> very quickly on an immediate-term basis here, we obviously have seen a sell-off in stocks according to the traders on the floor as a result of what's happening in ukraine. you have seen this decline in the euro -- in the ten-year yield, but are you seeing anything else, kind of a rush to safety? gold doesn't look like it's popping -- >> and the u.s. dollar index is still below 80. >> the dollar is not moving higher. >> and, kelly, you're right -- >> looks more like a side show. >> you're right because the eurocurrency is still doing so much better. that's right in their own back yard with regard to what's going on in ukraine/chi everybokey ev.

it's almost the weekend story. >> i still think it very much is a side show story. the market was telling us a little earlier today it was essentially -- it was, as i recall, it was materials, health care, and consumer discretionary whe were the leading sectors for the month of february. that's a real turn from the beginning of the year when it was risk off kind of play. the market remains with investors playing a barbell, keeping a hand in some defensive positions but extending themselves more into cyclicals as we go forward at a low inflationary environment with the fed struggling. sgr >> financials were getting a little bit of a bid. maybe it was a rotation out of the over valued names. want to go back to the main point as we head into the close close. the dow is off almost 250

points. >> bear in mind, 1848 for ages, for weeks and weeks we were trying to break through the new highs, 1848. stutter steps, we finally got there then 1850 would sas resis. finally yesterday we were decisively over that. you get these stutter steps up and back. it's not -- it hasn't been a straight line up but so far since the end of january, we've been doing pretty well. february was a great month. >> the market has been pretty much straight up for the last couple weeks after that big pullback earlier this year, and i think we may be in for some more jitters. i agree with my colleagues here that, you know, some of it has to do with the weekend and the news in the ukraine, but i think there's a lot of geopolitical uncertainty. 21 elections coming up. there may be some excuses for a little pullback. >> subprime was once called a

side show as well. >> rick, what is this market subprime then? >> well, to me these geopolitical issues, maybe the ukraine economy isn't big, but russia has a big appetite for getting in trouble, so i really wouldn't underestimate it, but i do think that it's more the weekend than it is any real change in events from 9:00 in the morning until where we're at right now. >> very good. thanks, folks. >> thank you. >> have a great weekend. >> boy, where are we headed here? this has been a very volatile couple hours here. the dow was up 125 at its peak today. down about 50, 45 or 50. now we're down 20 points with about 50 minutes left in the trading session. >> yesterday as we headed into close, things popped. today it's the opposite. a reversal of fortune on wall street because of uncertainty in ukraine to some extent. a new report suggests that

employees at the s.e.c. somehow sell their stocks that they own at just the right time. are they trading on nonpublic information? and why are they allowed to even own stocks at all? a bit of an outrage, right? we have that story in a moment. just after this, we'll hear from one investor making a billion dollar bet on the fracking boom. ameriprise asked people a simple question: can you keep your lifestyle in retirement? i don't want to think about the alternative. i don't even know how to answer that. i mean, no one knows how long their money is going to last. i try not to worry, but you worry. what happens when your paychecks stop? because everyone has retirement questions. ameriprise created the exclusive confident retirement approach. to get the real answers you need. start building your confident retirement today.

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get your best rest ever from sleep train. superior service, best selection, lowest price, guaranteed. ♪ sleep train ♪ your ticket to a better night's sleep ♪ if you're just joining us, this has not been a down day. it was very much an up day early on. >> 125 points higher for the dow at session highs. >> and the s&p was in record territory. all you needed was a positive close for that. however, late this afternoon developments in the ukraine area -- the area of you a cratu, russian troops may or may not be moving in the area. we don't know what's going on, but there's uncertainty there as the conditional president of ukraine is imploring the

russians to stop their intervention there, and that seems to have taken a toll on our stock market today. the dow now back in negative territory, although we're coming off the lows right now, but it's something we'll keep an eye on as we head toward the close and into the evening. as somebody said, it may just simply be a lack of appetite for risk on a friday. nobody wants to go into the weekend long. >> exactly. >> not knowing what's going to happen. let's move on. to frac or not to frac, that is a controversial question across the united states these days. >> our next guest's firm has raidsed more than $1.2 billion on funds focused on oil and gas services. he says fracking is here to stay and should be a huge job creator. which is charles cherington with interval capital. >> thanks for having me. >> your private equity firm has made a big play in this area. why do you see opportunity and why do you think other more traditional players like the banks have been more cautious?

>> well, it's a manufacturing business in the united states now. if you look at fracking, horizontal wells, you're almost certainly going to hit oil are a gas every time you drill. production is fairly predictable, and, therefore, it's a business with dependable, steady returns. we have decades of drilling inventory in front of us in the united states, so it's a play that looks like it has long legs. >> there are plenty of environmental concerns about the impact that fracking has on the environment. how do you address that? that is, if anything, that's the biggest stumbling block right now for those who don't want to see that kind of activity even though it would make us much, much more energy independent right now. >> absolutely. it's a great question. fracking has been going on in the united states oil fields since the 1940s. we fracked over 1 million wells. what's new is horizontal fracking. we're drilling the wells horizontally, using higher

pressures. it's a well-established practice. there's no evidence that fracking itself causes problems, and i think it's a little bit of a misdirection in a way. what really causes problems in these wells is poor well construction, and by that we mean it's a bad cementing job so there are gaps between the well and the cement. that can cause gas or hydrocarbons to escape to the surface. there are poor water management techniques so there may be improper disposal. there are chemical spills at the surface. so there are plenty of things for the industry to be concerned about and to keep an eye on, but, frankly, fracking just isn't one of them. >> at the same time, charles, how efficient is fracking generally speaking because we have these big oil fields that were discovered 75 years ago and are still relatively productive while a lot of the newer wells drilled through fracking methods seem to have high and quick exhaustion rates. >> that's a great question. 75% of the oil we consume globally comes from reservoirs discovered before 1980. however, those big finds are

extremely rare now, particularly in the u.s., but also on a worldwide level. so the kinds of giant fields like in saudi arabia which have been producing for decades are largely have been discovered and, number two, are becoming much more challenging from a production standpoint. so what's going to have to happen going forward is that we're going to have to find reserves in unconventional places, and fracking is a great example of that. so, yeah, the wells will come on very strong and then decline rapidly, but if we don't go to techniques like fracking, we're simply going to lose production globally. it will be an essential part of future production. >> very quickly because we're running out of time, but another huge challenge you face is finding the workers. we talk about how the jobs are available, but many people just don't want to relocate to the places where the drilling is going on right now. how bad is that for you right now? >> i'd say a big part of what we do at intervale is focus on bringing talented people into our portfolio companies.

the industry has created about 2.5 million jobs direct and indirect over the last decade. we expect we'll need another 4 million workers in the oil field and related segments in the next decade. you have to over relocation packages. you have to offer housing in certain situations. the even bigger problem is people over 55, the sort of wise men of the industry, are retiring and they're in scarcer supply and they're the people with sort of the knowledge to really make the oil field run. so incentivizing those senior folks is very important, too. >> so to be clear, you're not necessarily saying that if anyone shows up, they're going to get a job. you're saying you face a shortage of workers that could take a decade or more to fill. >> i'm saying there will be continued job creation in the oil field. we face challenges in the basins right now filling those positions and what's happened is we've had to bid wages up in order to compete for that labor, and we've had to make sort of conditions attractive by providing housing, et cetera, so we'll continue to attract labor

but it's by unconventional means. >> just like the fracking. >> charles, thank you very much. >> yes, indeed. >> appreciate your thoughts on that. obviously a transforming time in that industry. >> yes. and for these markets as we keep an eye here with 40 minutes or so to go into the close. the dow is above and below the flat line. it was ever so slightly positive. we're seeing tiny declines across the dow and the s&p 500 but the nasdaq remains the underperformer. >> are retail investors, people like you and me, getting nervous about this market following this big reversal? we'll ask a couple coming up next. >> then from carl aicahn to nelson peltz, companies are fighting back. have these activists overplayed thor hand or not? and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle... and go. and only national is ranked highest in car rental

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welcome back. here is a look at markets on this friday as we close out the trading day, week, and month. we've had a major reversal today, and bob pisani joins us with a little more on what's going on. >> i think most of the traders are in agreement that the headlines about aggression in the ukraine is the primary reason the markets dropped, but i want to point out another reason that several traders have pointed out. the important thing is this is the last trading day of the month, guys, and for the last seven or eight months, and i mean going back to june, i have been trying to check this, the last trading day of the month,

there has been a drop towards the close. now, i'm not saying that this is the main reason or the exclusive reason, but there's a lot of talk about rebalancing some of the pension funds. the market has been up. the stock market has been up. so pension funds who have to rebalance every month have to sell some stock to get back into balance. i'm just putting this out there. it's the last day of the month and we've seen these sell-offs multiple times. eight months in a row now i believe on the last day of the month towards the close. guys, back to you. >> lately it's been the last hour of the day anyway. >> which we try not to take too personally. >> maybe the double whammy, a combination of the headlines and maybe some of the last day of the month selling. >> pick your favorite reason. >> exactly. >> let's not forget the first day of the month has not gone well either. february started off down 2%. it's interesting we managed to finish the month so strong. at these levels it looks like february could be the last month since 1998 for the major indexes. >> and the weather is not going

to be so good on monday so who knows what's going to happen. >> a lot coming up. let's get to dom chu. >> let's take a look at what's going on. if you talk about what the big movers are today, you have to talk about what's happened with medivation that plummet. their shares ones to watch. then endologix. forecast its slowest growth rate in a decade. they make minimally invasive treatments for aortic disorders. the ceo of carnival sold 5 million shares and he will sell 5 million nor in the last 15 months. varonis is soaring. it can happen companies map and manage their unstructured data. and joseph a. bank and mens wear

house may be close to a deal. they may be willing to sit down with their rival and talk about probably a higher price. >> it's the last trading day of the month. it's time for the retail investor round table checking in on sentiment and where opportunities are seen for those from home. the investors who are doing it themselves. >> back with us, wayne smalls, an engineer at the health and human services department in d.c. we had planned another small investor but he got stuck in traffic wherever he is, so we're sorry he didn't make it, but we're glad you made it, wayne. how are you doing? >> i'm doing just fine. >> what do you make of the market right now? are you generally positive? are you thinking you're going to go long here? are you getting nervous about the gains lately? what are you doing? >> i'm absolutely positive about the markets. i mean, there are two key words to remember. resilient markets and cool heads. just 30 days ago we were in the midst of a major pullback, but

cool heads revealed and 30 days later we're probing new highs for the s&p 500 and the nasdaq. so cool heads, resill yebt markets, i'm not worried. >> what are your favorite plays right now? >> tesla, nxpi, qqq. i recommended them at the end of december and right now those stocks as well as a few others i mentioned are up on average of 10% so it's beating the s&p 500. so tesla, nxpi, they have strong potential. >> i read that you were waiting for a pull back in tesla to get in some more of that. you're already in? >> no, i'm not in. i tried to enter tesla right after the big pull back last month, but the market soared too quick. i will have to sit it out and wait another four more weeks. >> what happens if it keeps going up? >> well, that won't happen. it will definitely make itself a trip to the downside eventually and i will be there waiting. >> what's your entry point? >> i think i'm going to -- it's

hard to say right now. it's obviously going to keep inching up -- >> below 200? do you want to see it below 200 before you'd get involved? >> ideally i would like it to be at that level. >> just curious. you mentioned the qqq, you're talking about the nasdaq which today is lagging. there's some biotech things, momentum things going on there. why do you feel so positive about this index which has been one of the stronger points of the market lately? >> well, i think the race is somewhat on for nasdaq 5,000, and a person who has a position in qqq which stands a fairly decent low-risk, high-profit gain because of that factor. >> so far. >> so far, yes. >> wayne, good to see you. thanks for making the trip out. >> thank you. thank you for having me. >> good luck. >> thank you. >> hopefully you can get into tesla at some point. i don't know. >> the car or the stock. >> markets stabilizing a bit here. the dow starting to move higher here as we head toward the close. we have 30 minutes left in the trading session.

it was down 45 at the low here just about a half hour ago. now we're up 27 points. >> and the s&p has turned back positive. it means we could be talking again about closing out at a record high. >> any positive close is a record, yes, on the s&p. >> and did apple ceo's tim cook fire up shareholders in today's annual investor meeting? someone who owns 300 million of apple shares will weigh in next. >> and as you have heard, russia flecking its military muscle even during the crisis in ukraine. when does your work end? does it end after you've expanded your business? after your company's gone public? and the capital's been invested? or when your company's bought another? is it over after you've given back? you never stop achieving.

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the volatility continues on wall street. boy, now a comeback of sorts. they're buying the dip that was put in just in the last hour here. the dow at the peak was up 125 points today. at its low down 45 points. now we're back up almost 30 points, and a reminder, the s&p, any positive close today, kelly was just telling me, will be a new all-time high. >> i managed to put that one

together. >> yes, did you. >> the nasdaq, though it's reversed today, the worst performing index this year overall, it's been one of the best of the bunch. it's continuing to trade near a 14-year high. seema mody joins us now from the nasdaq. >> kelly, that's right. the nasdaq under pressure right now but to put it into perspective, the nasdaq is still outperforming the dow and the s&p 500 this year and here is what makes the nasdaq story even more interesting. large cap tech not participating. yahoo!, intel, apple, all down on the year. but despite these losses, the nasdaq continues to hit new multiyear highs thanks to gains in three different areas. first, is cloud services. akamai tech and f5 networks both beating street expectations. up double digits this year. momentum players, tesla, facebook, netflix continue to rise as investors hunt for high growth and lastly is health care

playing a significant role. all -- alexion is up 30%. illumina is the second best performing stock and then there's mylan, a generic drugmaker that's been soaring in an uptick in its foreign drug business. schaefer investment research says this diversification between multiple groups leading the nasdaq is a positive and that it greatly decreases the odds of a major crash. remember, the composition of the nasdaq this year in 2014 very different than what we had in 2000. back over to you. >> seema, thank you very much. apple, meanwhile, has not been part of the nasdaq's run up this year. that stock down about 6.5% this year. and today the company's been holding its annual shareholder meeting. josh lipton is there. is ceo tim cook saying anything to soothe investors, josh? >> well, bill, we are here at

apple hq in cupertino, california, and shareholders, they flew here to listen to ceo tim cook and to vote on these ten proposals which range on everything from executive compensation to the 2014 stock plan. they also did overwhelmingly choose to re-elect their directors. remember, the board had presented these eight nominees, william campbell, tim cook, mickey drexler, al gore, bob iger, and andrea young, arthur livenson and ronald sugar. tim cook took the stage to field some questions from shareholders. some of them pressed tim cook on why you don't talk more about new products in the pipeline and cook's point was, listen, we're not interested in giving a road map to rivals. he also said they've been ripped off enough. he did point out though that r & d spending is up 32% year-over-year. his point was that does demonstrate apple's commitment to innovation, to new products, and services. also he talked about cash and

capital return. remember, apple has committed to a $100 billion capital return program. cook saying that the board is working to develop that program and they should have news on that within the next six months. guys, back to you. >> josh, thank you very much. and stay right there because we want to get a shareholder's perspective now on apple. >> esser nehe i ernesto ramos. why aren't you out in cupertino? >> well, because we have a lot of stocks to follow, including apple. it is our largest position, and, look, regardless of what happens at the shareholder meeting, we own the stock because it's a fantastic investment. it's valued very cheaply. it's valued at a 25% discount to the market. it's growing twice as fast as the market. so we'd own stocks like this day in and day out regardless of whether the growth has tapered off from the 40% level to what it is today. at these levels we agree with

carl icahn with the cash position and the potential for new products and returning cash to shareholders. it's a fantastic investment and that's why we hold it. >> i'm assuming you didn't buy at $700 then? >> we bought it in 2007 and we've held it continuously adding to our position along the way. >> but do you understand the criticism at least during the tim cook era that there's no longer the revolution, there's no transforming technology as there was in the steve jobs era. it's more evolutionary. they're just incrementally adding to what the product line they already have right now. are you dissatisfied with that at all? >> look, no. we're not. we understand it hasn't been a growth stock for the last couple years. but it's still growing faster than the market and you can't grow at 40% in the perpetuity, and if we get any incremental growth it will be fantastic.

if we get a new product announcement, it will be fantastic. if we get a great acquisition, it will also be fantastic. the cash return to shareholders is important, and i think that's going to be the key to driving the stock higher in the next six months to a year. >> josh, how much focus was that at the shareholder meeting today? how much disagreement or dissatisfaction did there seem to be among shareholders spurred by carl icahn to push for apple to be more generous on that front? >> when it came to capital return, it was certainly interesting to hear cook talk about that. he said we have this capital return program, $100 billion. the board is thinking about ways to develop it. he also did make a point though that he, in fact, made an -- emphasized a point if you are a short-term investor, if that's how your time horizon is and you're looking to carve out a position in apple, he made a point of making the argument maybe apple isn't the best investment for you. his point was we're constantly trying to position this company

for the long term, and to your other point about products, he would not go out here and say what new products they have in the pipeline. he talked about r & d, but to bill's point, the analysts at barclay's recently downgraded apple because of whatever these products are, they might be exciting. will they be revolutionary? >> they might not even be exciting. >> thanks, josh. thanks ernesto. >> 15 minutes to go into the close now and the dow is up 40 points. >> just another day. >> just another day. the s&p 500 positive as well. 1858 is the level there. >> don't look now though, but another monster winter storm is threatening much of the nation. it's already a huge rainstorm in southern california. could it be another blow to an economy already slowed down by this historic winter?

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fears about the leadership dwen russia and ukraine caused a sell-off an wall street this afternoon although we are back in the green for many of the major averages. dom chus wraps up on how the market has been reacting to those concerns. >> of course, it's a very fluid situation so what you have are traders and investors dealing with a lot of headlines, but, of course, anytime you have the possibility of some kind of a conflict in a region of the world that may be volatile, you get traders who want to be -- perhaps take a little less risk, take some of that risk off the table. that's why you saw in intraday the dow. if you look at it at 1:45, you saw the session highs for the dow jones. by 3:10 in the afternoon, so a very relatively short period of time, we hit those session lows. it was about 160 point swing in the dow jones. like you said, we're climbing back up there. but when you have officials in the ukraine warning russia would provocations, that's the reason why traders are taking at least

a little bit of that risk off the table. this is not wholesale sell-off. there's no sense of panic, but like so often we see, traders do not like going into a weekend session a weekend trade, if you will, long, that long. that's the reason why people are selling off just a little bit more of this market. again, not panicwise, just mitigating the risk that they have, bill, kelly. that's the yn wreason why you'r seeing this. back to you guys. >> dom, thank you very much. look at the calendar. tomorrow first day of march. >> no, it's not. >> the better weather -- >> if were -- >> the better weather is upon us right now. no more snow. >> in like a liolion. >> think again. winter is still very much with us. >> much of the nation is bracing for another nasty and potentially massive winter form. weather channel meteorologist kelly cass is tracking the storm's path fof ur us. >> it's starting out in southern california. something we haven't seen too much of, rain for los angeles.

3 to 6 inches of rain leading to flash flooding and mud slides, unfortunately. that system will meet up with some cold air in the center of the country. up to a foot of snow around the kansas city area, springfield. indianapolis wif ye have yo that shade of purple as well. watch fought for that freezing rain, that ice potential from arkansas all the way across the ohio valley. that's enough to do some damage to trees and down power lines, and then, of course, it ends up in the northeast as we head through monday. look at the snowfall totals. yeah, certainly in like a lion. we're talking up to a foot of snow across the poke knoconos. right now officially we have new york in the 5 to 8 category. down towards philadelphia as well. washington, d.c., about 1 to 3 inches for you, but we could see some ice mixing in as well. of course, that could lead to some power outages as well. this is a system that is certainly going to have some big impacts on travel, especially monday in new york where we're going to see all that slushy snow developing. much more as you head for the hills north and west of the city. back to you guys, bill and

kelly. >> how unusual is it to go from west coast to east coast and as rapidly as it is. does it make it more difficult to track accurately? >> this is a system we knew about out in the pacific ocean. it's actually something we've been tracking for quite some time. what's unusual is how dry it's been in california. so it's really great to see something going on there for a change. >> kelly cass, weather channel. thanks very much. i think. but you know what i mean. >> it's going to be a rough one, bill, on monday. another rough commute. be safe out there. ten minutes left to go into the close. the dow is adding 27 points at this hour where we've been negative, we've been positive. we're going to hold here, see if the s&p 500 can hold with a gain of about 3 for a new record close. >> geopolitical fears reversing big gains on wall street today. coming up, we have a big bear who is warning investors that the recent rally will not have a happy ending. cialis tadalafil for daily use helps you be ready anytime the moment's right. you can be more confident in your ability to be ready. and the same cialis is the only daily ed tablet

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about eight minutes left here in the trading session, and the volatility has continued. the dow up 32 points right now. s&p if we finish positive, any green means an all-time high and the nasdaq biotech has been a weak link, that's down 15

points. joining me is ann from guggenheim partners. is this the kind of dip you want to buy? >> we said to our investors earlier in january, we're going to look back at this period as a great buying opportunity. we're really positive over the long term for the equity market and the credit markets and we think it's an interesting time to start thinking about the markets and being involved in the markets. >> because the economy is going to grow faster or what's going to cause that market to continue higher here? >> we talk about it all the time in our credit meetings at guggenheim that it's like seeing a horror movie. we're all still getting over the financial crisis. we need to start taking risk and putting assets to work. we see strong economic fundamentals, slightly derailed by colder weather, and we see an accommodative fed that's told us really there's no downside. >> why are there treasury yields going lower? >> i think -- we think part of the treasury yield dynamic is supply and demand related. for example, you saw rally right

after the ukrainian development sort of intensified. we see an interesting supply and demand dynamic going forward, a lot of demand for fixed income instruments, foreign investors coming back into the treasury market, and less government issuance because of the last couple years of budget s shrinkage. >> is that a rush to safety or are they looking for some yield? >> it's a combination. there's a rush to safety which is pushing yields down. there's supply and demand constraints that are keeping treasury yields down and there's a promise from the fed that as we go through this winter soft patch, they will be flexible. we don't think they will do anything at the end of the day before the time comes to make a final decision about slowing this tapering program, but the speculation is in the market enough and janet yellen yesterday in her testimony underlined it. >> ann, stay right there if you can. we're going to come back with a closing countdown for this friday. see how we finish the day out. here in philadelphia you can access a philly cheesesteak

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technology. dom chu, what's going on? why is it up 8.5%. >> a sharp move higher. this is on a bloomberg report that the company has gotten informal proposals from private equity firm silver lake and kkr that are above the $21 a share that elliott management, the activist hedge fund, had offered to purchase river bed for. river bed rejected that offer earlier today. we've reached out for comment from kkr and silver lake. we'll wait to hear back from them but for right now that's the reason why, bill, they are at session highs. those shares of river bed. back over to you. >> let's get back to the market. we have about inside the two-minute mark here. again, volatility reigning today. we had a gain of 125 points for the dow at one time today. then this sell-off on the unrest in ukraine as russian troops apparently moving into that region. we've come back though now up 47 on the dow, and the s&p, any positive close will be a new

all-time high and it looks like we'll get that. we're up five points. ann from guggenheim partners, does it matter we have to keep setting highs? there was a time we tried three times and then it sold off. does this worry you at all? >> there are two thing at play. off possibility for increased volatility this year. last year was unbelievably low volatility, fabulous return for every unit of volatile, that cannot persist. we've done a lot of research on our team there and we see a more volatile year. >> so what do you do then? do you have to hedge more? >> yes. there are certain minimum volatility strategies we run in our team at guggenheim as well and we think they will have a pretty good performance this year. but one of the most underplayed stories is inflation. >> you think it comes back. >> no, i think it stays low. >> really? >> i think the fed is much more sensitive to inflation than the market expects. low levels of inflation allow pe

multiples to expand. >> you think we're in a sweet spot. good to see you. >> thank you so much. >> have a good weekend. we're going to go out positive after a crazy day. the nasdaq still down 11 points, but the s&p up 5 is at a new all-time high for the second day in a row. stay tuned. much more to come. kelly evans and company on the second hour of "the closing bell." have a good weekend, kelly. thank you, bill. welcome to "the closing bell." closing in some many different way this is friday. i'm kelly evans. let's start with how we're finishing a fascinating day on wall street and a couple months we have to reflect on as well. the dow is finishing higher by 50 points. 16,323 is roughly the closing high. the all-time closing high is 16,576. still a couple hundred points shy of that. the s&p 500, we're adding 5 points to 1859. that's a new record. i know new record is saying the

same thing over again. closing high on the nasdaq is the laggard today. it's down ten points to 4,308. for more on the action today, joining me now michael krofton, our own morgan brennan, cnbc distributor, zachary karabell and jon fortt back from barcelona. let's kick this off here with you mr. krofton. what do you make of these markets? >> i think the market is in pretty good shape for the year. you had decent numbers this morning, they weren't as bad as expected so the market decided it wanted to go higher and wanted to show us it's back on track after a tricky and tumultuous january. march i think will be another good month absent some kind of global geopolitical catastrophe in the ukraine or china or in europe or -- >> you're not worried about march? we have had some marches in the past where it seems that's been

the peak of sentiment, opt simpmism for the year and things get choppy? >> i think we're going to have a good first quarter. what's happened this quarter is anything that could be possibly construed as negative from the economic numbers has been written off due to the weather. we're going to have a cold march again. so the first quarter numbers, whatever they are, are going to be written off if they're poor due to the weather. if they're even slightly better than expected, the market probably can start to make new highs. >> it's so interesting when people bring up the weather, mike out a note saying temperatures were not extreme for january as a whole even if you look at individual weeks, and for february it was a little more unseasonably cold but there was less snowfall than normal. maybe weather is just an excuse. >> weather could be an excuse but i have been standing outside pretty much every week for the last, what, two months now and those temperatures are feeling really cold to me and it's been really snowy. it's been snowy enough to see things like the ports in new

jersey closing and hindering manufacturing. manufacturing factories getting their raw materials and hindering retailers from getting their supplies. we're definitely seeing this weather issue. janet yellen yesterday acknowledging weather could be an issue. of course, we have months to go before we know just how much of an impact is there. to me it seems like investors where data is concerned are sort of adopting a little bit of a cafeteria-style approach. they're taking what they want and leaving the rest. they're really shrugging it off to the weather. >> if only we had someone here who could tell us what leading indicators to look to to figure out where the economy is going. >> if only. and those have pointed in every single direction except a conclusive one. part of what i try to illuminate is they rarely line up so neatly anymore with markets and with companies. the fact is markets are increasingly driven by what companies do, not by what gdp does because, you know, a company can do very well, gdp

can do badly. the fact is we have completely cont contradictory information. if you feel like things are stable, there's more than enough evidence for that. this is one of the calmest two months even with that two weeks of real january volatility that we have had in the markets for years. it's a good time to assess where things are going. i think things are more stable than not. >> one of the indicators perhaps, jon fortt, of confidence in these markets, today's trade whip around notwithstanding is the fact you're starting to see more tech companies going public. bob pisani was flagging this earlier. more merger acquisition activity. notable deals in that sector picking up. >> lots of that m&a activity, record numbers. facebook/whatsapp. it was just a few days ago and it really feels like trying to get a forest through the trees moment like there are certain companies that are in a strong position that are really investing to try to get momentum during this period. you see facebook doing that.

you heard from zillow and some others talking about marketing spend, trying to gain an advantage on their competitors. so though it's easy to get confused on a day like this with geopolitical stuff in ukraine, with still questions about emerging markets, i think what the big companies are doing is they are investing. the little companies still eager to go public. there's optimism fundamentally from a lot of the tech -- >> on that, the whatsapp deal is a perfect example of big picture economy and employment and capital doing well. had almost -- >> you sound like larry summers. >> it has 55 employees, right? >> it will have 100 by the summer. >> they will double their employment base and add measurably to the u.s. economic base. >> let's bring tim seymour into that conversation. what's on your radar today? >> one of the things we're going to do on "fast money" is our segment which is buy or bye-bye. i think there are 73 stocks in the s&p at 52-week highs.

we know the market is strong. facebook is a classic example of that. what do you do here with a company that really has shown that they can monetize their mobile business and yet the valuation is very uncomfortable for a guy like me who is a value player? that's what we're trying to look at. i think you take profits. you trade in ranges, especially in places that have worked recently. the gold miners are another place that is an interesting place to be fading some of this. i don't think gold has found a level where it's ready to go higher. >> michael, i want to know generally speaking as people are going to sit back, take stock of the fact we're coming up on the five-year anniversary of the lows. the dow jones industrial average on march 9th of 2009 closed at 6547. we're at 16,321. similar gains to the other indexes. how much further does this rally, does this cycle generally speaking do you think have to go? >> we could be in a new secular bull market. i'm not sure we're not. it will be very interesting to see what happens in the third quarter of this year with

economic numbers. clearly there is an expectation that the gdp growth in this economy will recover and return to its, you know, mid three, high three, three five, three seven percent range. then that justifies where the market is. the market is actually kind of schizophrenic. it has two personalities. you have these high valuation cloud stocks, social media stocks, and you have the old economy stocks which are chugging along doing a good job, creating lots and lots of cash flow, buying back lots of shares, positioning themselves for a better economy, trading in multiples that are very, very reasonable -- >> i think i can already guess which of the two sectors you're comfortable with? >> i'm comfortable with the old economy because i'm old-fashioned. >> the nasdaq four years ago was at 5,000, another anniversary. pick your metric. >> the closing high for the nasdaq five years ago was 1,268,

and we stand here today at 4,308. it's pretty maremarkable we've d the snapback we have. >> it's true. yeah. >> hey, tim -- >> yes, hello. >> i'm curious about today's market action as well. the fact it might have been the ukraine headlines. there was clearly broader weakness that was happening throughout the trading session. if you look at some of the biotech names, some of the mo mo stocks, that started to roll over a little earlier than anything more specific to the geopolitics hit. do you read much into that? is that just a friday? a month-end phenomenon? >> i think it's friday, china pmi numbers tonight, the industrial story is something something we're following china on. the story in the ukraine is ultimately a place where you have russia at least posturing and it's a place where the headlines will continue to be somewhat scary. as a guy who spent a lot of time

in russia and understanding kind of the role that they want to play in the region, i don't think they're done at least sending provocative messages even though i don't think they're going to invade. in this environment with mo mo stocks, there's a lot of places you can be trading these things. we've seen the volatility in some of the names. we're trading around the edges and it's been very fruitful. >> i was reading there seemed to be a lot of individual investors trading into the market right now, and the danger here -- let me just read off some of the tech stocks that had swings down more than 4% today. linkedin, zillow, blackberry, workday, sales force, zulily. a lot of these stocks that have had nice runs over the past few months, the retail investor gets in, it's like i have that app on my phone, maybe i want it, it's really kind of dangerous out there. it might suit them well to remember the big old stodgy stocks. nothing wrong with a bow tie. >> the market --

>> the bow tie. >> i'm saying there's nothing wrong with the bow tie. >> the bow tie is happening. but the market has really been sort of a momentum market over the last couple months. what you see today even before the ukraine situation overflowed into the rest of the market was beta coming out of the market. that may be in front of the weekend. it may be just profit taking in front of uncertainty or potential uncertainty. that's not an abnormal reaction for a market like this. it's come a long way. >> thanks, every. stick around and catch tim seymour on "fast money" at 5:00 p.m. we'll look forward to all of that. more ahead on the market's mixed performance today after a day of mostly green arrows. markets turn negative but the dow and s&p then creep back into positive territory. all of this despite reports of raised tensions between russia and ukraine. two top market pros women weigh in next. plus troops on the ground in ukraine taking over an airport in crimea.

and "meet the press" moderator david gregory will join me for more. and "meet the press" moderator

welcome back. as you can see, markets ending this week on a volatile note. a lot of it tied to uncertainty in ukraine and what russia may or may not be doing. still, the s&p 500 closing at an all-time high and the dow isn't too far behind. joining me now, burt doman who is urging investors to be cautious. also kenny who is remaining optimistic. burt, give me the case for why investors shouldn't be involved in a market that has rewarded them for five years running. >> first of all, let me say it's really a pleasure to be on the air with you after all this time. >> great to see you again. >> yes. the reasons, we use weight of the evidence to determine our positions. it is not earnings. we don't really look at earnings very much because peak earnings are always made at market peaks. so, therefore, it's not predictive. earnings are what happened in the past. we like to look forward when we drive a car.

and so we look at weight of the evidence. sentiment is very important to tell us what's going on. when everything is bullish, and right now i bet you have trouble finding a bear. but when everyone is bullish, that means that all the money on the sidelines is in the market, and when you take a look at mutual fund cash, it's almost near record lows. so all the money is in. everybody is invested, everybody is waiting for stocks to go up. carl icahn has fully invested $4 billion worth in apple stock waiting for apple to go up. when everybody is waiting for things to go up, it won't happen. today we saw something very important. >> what's that? go ahead, bert. >> today the 1850 level on the s&p was widely watched. therefore, we had to exceed it for at least by two days. that happened now, and now we have to see. sentiment is very bullish. earnings are really very deceptive. people have to look at, you

know, what earnings are they looking at? are they looking at earnings per share or total company earnings? earnings per share have been rising because companies have been buying back their stock. there are fewer shares outstanding. that makes the earnings per share rise and people say look at the earnings per share are rising but it's only because the biggest egest buyer in the marke been companies buying back the old stocks. >> kenny, what is the case for equities. >> i hear you, but that argument is tough because we keep saying that argument about company buybacks and earnings per share and yet the market continues to go higher. in fact, it struggles on the way down. they try to push it lower, but yet there's plenty of demand down there. and, in fact, i would say that this rise in the market has been on light volume. so i'm not necessarily so sure that all the money is yet in the market. and i think what's going to protect us on the way down if there's even any kind of a correction is plenty of institutional money that's sitting there and waiting. we saw it the last couple times.

the market tried to back off 5% or 6% in october. there was plenty of demand and we went right back up. now we're teasing the highs, 1900 is what it's going to look like now because we're up and through 1850. so 1900, the next century mark is where they want to take it. i wouldn't be surprised if we see it go there sometime next week. >> corporate profits economiwide, if you take per share out of it, are as well at record highs or approaching it. they're still very hefty, if you will. >> you get peak earnings at market peaks, just like 2007. >> well, let's not hope it's 2007, huh? >> well, why isn't? there are so many similarities. >> i'm not so sure there's all those similarities. in 2007 there were a lot of other issues, global issues going on. i don't think those global issues exist today. >> you don't think china is a big problem? the next big swan event, the black swan event is going to come out of china. see, china may be hitting a

little bit of a slow patch but i don't think it's going to be that black swan event. >> china is in an enormous credit crunch. no private company can get one dollar of a loan. the only thing still existing over there is the 167soes owned the government. >> the case was made the next recession in the u.s. is at least four years out, that we're two years away from a head hike, another near away from a recession after that. your case is you think china will be a shock that sends markets lower? >> yes, tellkelly, that's the c. everybody is looking at the u.s. situation and the u.s. situation is the best in the world. but that doesn't mean it is immune from what happens in other parts of the world. >> okay but -- >> we're going to have a military confrontation possibly with russia which would not be very bullish. >> so that's an event that none of us can at the moment predict is barring that, even if china

starts to get weaker, even if people start to think other parts of the world are not participating, the u.s. will be viewed as the flight to safety, right? so you could use the counter argument saying people that want to put money to work, that want to come into equities, will come to the u.s. >> really? and so you think that a worldwide bear market is going to have the u.s. market be the stellar performer and the u.s. market will go up and be immune? >> well, that's the argument. i don't see a worldwide bear market. you do, i don't. >> have you looked at the foreign direct investment outflows of emerging markets? >> i have not. >> well, take a look at them. the money is flowing out. it's been flowing in for the last five years because of the fantastic quantitative easing. now the money is flowing out. some of these countries are being left without money. the capital is gone. everything that blew up that bubble is gone. >> well, it's not gone yet but it's a process that's happening, right? i think the fed is very well aware of that. i think other central banks around the world are aware of

that. i think the process will be slow. janet yellen said it herself, if things start to turn really ugly, the fed is prepared to jump back in and continue to stimulate. so i think that argument gets a little muted on the way down. not so say there may not be a correction or a correction meaning 5% or 8% pullback, but i don't think it's going to be this bear market that, you know, you're predicting. >> kenny, bert, we'll leave it there are for the afternoon but we'll pick it up again. we want to get over to courtney reagan with some news on j. crew. >> good afternoon. there are some headlines coming out of the "wall street journal" that private equity owned j. crew is possibly in talks to be sold to japan's fast retailing group. this is the company that owned uniglow, princess tam tam among others. right now the headlines are the talks are preliminary. we also had some headlines previously that j. crew was possibly looking to

we will follow to along. but the headline from "the wall street journal" is that j. crew is in preliminary talks to be acquired by fast retailing. >> on the heels of suntory, another major deal potentially coming out of japan for a big u.s. name. companies are pushing back against the likes of carl icahn and nelson pets beiltz being to talk to the hand by a lot of the boards they're pressuring. isn't the only return i'm looking forward to... for some, every dollar is earned with sweat, sacrifice, courage. which is why usaa is honored to help our members with everything from investing for retirement to saving for college. our commitment to current and former military members and their families is without equal.

>> on the heels of suntory,

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welcome back. companies pushing back against vocal activist investors. ebay rejecting carl icahn's open letter to shareholders and now darden restaurants might have a fight on its hands and darden seems to be using sharp elbows against its activist investors. with us cnbc.com senior digital rider john jettero. >> it's pretty simple, darden doesn't like what the analysts have to say so it's not passing them the mi c. one of the guys came out in the summer of 2012 with a negative note. since then he's not been allowed to ask one question on a conference call even though he's tried many times. a couple other guys who came out in the fall with a suggestion

that activists turn up and start shaking things up were also not allowed to ask questions on a call in december. >> is it the case that some investors are making a push that analysts aren't able to do because they're being frozen out by these companies? >> well, maybe, but i think at the end of the day those guys are going to be heard. the company can only control them so much. but it does matter. there are a lot of things companies can do. one, of course, not letting them ask questions on the calls. they can also not invite them to the events. one of the guys is not invited to the investor day in march. >> i want to bring the panel in in a second. you've actually been following this theme for quite a while. it was the case with forest labs, same deal a couple years ago, they were trying to keep analysts who had a negative view of the company from being able to express that view. do you think it's getting better, is it getting worse? is this just business as usual on wall street? >> i think this has been going on for a long time and we thought that it was going to end in the '90s. remember when it was the investment bankers pressuring these guys to be positive.

many companies are still quite aggressive. i think darden is among the more aggressive, but i think it's persist persisting. >> what do you think of this story? is this a step too far? >> i actually think -- we own a lot of darden. i think it's a mismanaged company. i think management is just continuing to show it's bell lid belligerence. it has to allow for freedom of speech from the analysts and i think the activists are right on target. darden, either the chairman or the ceo has to go or he has to break up the company. >> when you read john's story what did you think? >> it just continued to embed in me my belief it's a mismanaged company. this guy is out of his depth and now he's struggling for survival. >> there are two things going on here. one, freezing out analysts who are in the business of trying to get at the business metrics and fundamentals i think is a real problem because essentially you're trying to oth ing ting t information. activist investors, that's a

dicey one. we talk about running a company for the benefit of the shareholders, but when you do run a company, there are other things that a management can say are important. creating a good product, long-term growth rather than quarterly earnings -- >> but their responsibility is to shareholders at the end of the day is it not? >> and quarterly earnings haven't been good for quite son-in-law ti-- some time. >> activist shareholders are coming at they want their shares to go up usually. there are some who we don't talk about as much on air and michael was talking about this, who are working constructively almost as k consultants. those are often doing a more constructive role. >> you have an interesting moment when web and pc era tech companies have been targeted by activists. microsoft, ebay, apple. we're used to seeing th ing thed

maybe dell targeted a little bit. it remains to be seen what the value is of that. certainly since icahn targeted apple, apple either because of that or maybe not because of that has talked more openly about returning more cash to shareholders. tim cook said today within the next 60 days we will do that. maybe there's some benefit there. when you get into icahn talking about spinning off pay pal from ebay, valid question to raise, but i just don't know if there's the same kind of appetite for it as there is in a darden type situation where, you know, red lobster, everybody sees their old restaurants crumbling in their neighborhoods and wonders -- >> maybe it's just easier to the case of red lobster. >> it is easier. when is the last time you ate at red lobster. >> i love the cheddar bay business kits. i i'm apparently the only one who can happily eat a basket and drink a glass of wine. >> one other thing i want -- two things i wanted to know, the first is this is obviously -- i think this is an issue as well and actually i think it's also a pr issue for this company.

you're now shedding light and bringing light to the fact it is a mismanaged company, that they do have bloated costs, and they aren't playing nicely with others. so i think this is actually twofold issue for them now, the fact they have been pushing back. they have made it harder on themselves. >> absolutely. >> and the other thing i think that's worth noting and i'm not sure where they actually closed today, but with all this hullabaloo happening in public we saw darden trading up today. it does seem to be actually a good thing for the stock because it seems like there's some sort of disruption happening. saw the same thing with pepsi and ebay today. >> up 2.5%. >> in an age of transparency and massive litigation, these guys better wake up and give full access to the media as to what -- >> that, too. got to go. thanks, guys. jon, i was going to say people can read more about that online and they ought to. cnbc.com, write being what's happening with darden in this particular case. now, tensions rising in ukraine drawing the u.s. into a high stakes international diplomacy battle with russia. david gregory is next with the

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pictures of the white house briefing room where at about 4:45 president obama is expected to make a statement regarding the situation in the ukraine. we'll bring that to you when it happens. now, meet the press moderator david gregory joining us from washington with more on this story which we will be covering, of course, throughout the weekend. david, knowing that these remarks from the president, this is a breaking story, any thoughts on what we might hear from him? >> what we've heard from the administration and what i expect to hear from the president is to be very clear in his warning to vladimir putin and to russia to not step over a line here. remember, the president introduced the idea of another line, remember the red line in syria, another line that they don't want people to cross, and that is to basically get into diminishing the territorial integrity of ukraine. you've heard about what may be russian troops or russian, you know, special -- not special forces, but contractors operating in the crimea. this raises real warnings here

for the united states and for the west generally, so i think the president would like to make it very clear that russia should step back from what it's doing here at a time when there's a fledgling government in kiev. a time when the former president has fled and there's a lot of questions about the future of this country. >> exactly, david. a lot of questions here about the u.s. role in these situations on a week where we've been talking about scaling back defense spending. >> right. and we're not talking about u.s. military engagement here. there are a statement of principles. there's what is the united states for. we haven't heard from the president in kind of a unified way about what his position is. but this is an economic question for the united states and for the west. this is a country, youukraine, that's broke, that already got a big infusion of money from russia. if they get western money from the eu, from the imf, there are going to be springs attached in terms of what ukraine would have to do.

the united states would be sucked into this in one way or the other if ukraine becomes a chaotic environment. this is russia that views losing e ukraine as much worse than the upside of retaining ukraine by the west, which is to say that russia is motivated far more about keeping ukraine in its orbit right now that it might do things that the international community would find highly objectionable. the olympics are over and i think now the president wants to send a message about where he thinks the lines are that should not be crossed by russia. >> and, david, you mentioned, and naturally this isn't about the presence of u.s. troops in ukraine or anything like that, and a lot of the defense cuts. go back to the issue of how the u.s. asserts itself into situations geopolitically beyond its borders when -- take the ukraine as a prime example. this is about spending

potentially billions and billions of dollars but is that pentagon money? >> no, not necessarily, but it's certainly u.s. dollars, wherever it comes from. i think the point about the future of the military is what wars do we have to be prepared to fight? what are the threats that we have to be prepared to face? we are a nation coming home from war, from afghanistan, after iraq. a nation that's more interested in using special forces and smaller footprints in terms of using our military. so i think it's going to be a long time before we would, you know, use troops for a land invasion jen whe invasion anywhere in the world. that's dictating how the u.s. is thinking about using its military in the future particularly at such a tough time economically for the country and a tough time in washington trying to balance its books. so i think that's really the question. we can't always anticipate where we're going to need the military, but i think the military is saying, chuck hagel is saying, and the president, we have to be prepared to really

contract from where we are. >> david, it was interesting to look at the action here in markets, on the floor today. it was quite clear that investors, traders, everyone is trying to engage the significance of what's happening in ukraine both with regard to how serious the situation is and what the strategic significance of all of that is and if this is one of the instances where it's going to be for years an area of conflict between the west and russia. that's a story that doesn't necessarily play out in a weekend or come to a flash point. is this just a place where people will have to watch to see how it all unfolds for perhaps moments, years from now? >> it's a country of 46 million people. it's a country that's very important to russia in terms of russia's orbit. it's also a country that needs a great deal of financial help. nobody wants to see a failed state. so if you're a european union country, you don't want to see that. if you're in the united states, you don't want to see that.

russia may have some interest in it being destabilized for its own purposes but nevertheless, it becomes expensive. europe has already had to deal with its own kind of economic basket cases that it's had to help support. it doesn't want to have to face that again in the region. and, you know, as i talked to a former diplomat today who said thank god we've got a lot of the nuclear weapons out of the ukraine back in the '90s or you would be looking at something worse. this is primarily a question about the future of democracy and the future of their rights in the ukraine but it's also about its economic demands as it becomes a more and more chaotic country. >> we will be hearing from the president shortly. the white house briefing room preparing for him to make those remarks. catch david gregory on "meet the press" this sunday. sell be sitting down with claire mccaskill and saxby chambliss talking about the armed services committee. check your local listings for the show time.

the president expected to speak on the situation in ukraine at about 4:45 p.m. eastern time. we're going to take a quick break. keep it right here. plenty more ahead. make it happen with fidelity active trader pro. it's one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. call or click to open your fidelity account today.

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uniformed russian forces apparently a hybrid of military and paramilitary are still flying into the cry meeian region. officials are saying they have no reason to doubt the basic information that russians are arriving on russian argeircraft. eamon javers joins us now. eamon, what more can you tell us at this hour? >> just what you're reporting is what nbc news is also reporting. this information giving a clear sense that the president is going to be entering the briefing room to speak amid a still unfolding situation in ukraine. not exactly clear what is going on there, but what we've seen from the white house and from the administration so far today is both press secretary jay carney and secretary of state kerry both saying that it would be a grave mistake, both using that exact phrase, for russia to get involved here in ukraine in any kind of way.

obviously including militarily. the president we can expect is going to underscore that, look to see if his terminology goes beyond that phrase, and look to see whether or not he draws any kind of red line in the sand. remember, we've had this issue over syria in recent months and over the past year, whether the president is comfortable saying specifically what it is he would object to and what the united states would do about it. officials were sort of vague about that earlier today. we'll see whether the president goes further than that, but he's going to be speaking a the a dramatic moment. something is clearly happening in the southern part of ukraine. what exactly it is, reports are emerging. the president will have to set out what the u.s.'s intention is to do about it, kelly. >> eamon, thanks very much. some perspective here, zach karabell. >> so at any point in time there are a series of geopolitical crises. there has not been a single moment in any of our lifetimes that has not been true.

we spent the 2000s going up with a war in iraq and afghanistan. there are continual tensions between north and south korea. there are continual tensions about whether or not sanctions and this detante with iran will happen. there are protests in venezuela. unless you are trading very specific things that pertain to those regions, oil with venezuela, natural gas with the ukraine, maybe some grain futures, i do think while these are absolutely important issues to deal with, they are not necessarily and nor should they necessarily be kind of market events that receive anxiety and concern. >> the question of something being systemic as well becomes important here. there are people saying earlier why is it that we would trade off so much on headlines on greece during the european financial crisis? in the case of greece and the european union, what was happening in one part of it could have unraveled the entire thing and the -- >> even then it was legitimate to say, look, there is always a domino that could lead to falling dominos but sometimes

it's just one domino and i don't know what the systemic issue is here other than a chronic and legitimate concern about the unpredictability of putin, his foreign policy desires and ambitions within what used to be the former soviet union. >> but i'm not sure it's unpredictable behavior from putin. the russians have always been territorial. goes all the way back to the time wh -- and the crimea has been considered somewhat a part of the russian motherland. he's in what they may still consider being part of russia. we can't really apply our standards to what is going on there. >> that's why, michael, when we go back to talking about how people are supposed to interpret what this all means over the weekend, come monday morning, what should we be watching, what are the flash points, et cetera, the point becomes you can understand or try to understand what's happening geopolitically in this part of the world. does that necessarily mean you change what you're doing here as

we saw perhaps some investors thinking about heading into the close there? >> i think what's significant is the military, the pir ra military, or the hybrid military are not russian uniformed soldiers. that's interesting to me, and i also think it's interesting they haven't moved further. they haven't moved into the ukraine itself, for instance. this may be a very national specific occurrence that may not have that much impact on our markets. >> eamon javers, hope you're right there still. i want to talk a little bit about the strategy if you're the white house. to what extent do you want to go so far as to telling the world here is where we might have a red line or here is where, you know -- here is at what point we will get involved or we won't tolerate russia's involvement? has the lesson from syria been learned? >> well, i think it definitely has, and that's why i think you can expect to see, predicting is always dangerous just a few minutes before the president speaks, but you can expect to see the president laying out here a series of guidelines, of principles, of an outcome that

the united states would like to see. could you expect to hear the president saying that the united states doesn't want to see any bloodshed here. but the point about crimea is an interesting one because we'll have to see how this move is received in that region. remember, that southern region of ukraine actually has a majority ethnic russian population. so a russian move there might be received very well locally there where it wouldn't be in the rest of ukraine and especially in kiev. so there could be some fracturing here of the ukrainian state that we have known, but historically crimea has been part of russia and has been part of the soviet union obviously as was ukraine. so local politics there might be very different than politics in kiev or politics in washington or in moscow. >> right. >> aren't we -- eamon, i want to get your thoughts about this, a few chess moves ahead of needing to be concerned. we call putin unpredictable.

it's not north korean levels of unpredictable. angela merkel reached out to him to make sure he's not going to make serious incursions and things will remain calm. it's not like russia is particularly isolated. very happy about having everybody over for dinner at the olympics recently. you'd have to see something -- a couple steps from here before you'd think, boy, this could get dangerous, right? >> well, it seems clear and especially as you talk about the olympics, jon, that putin is a guy who has a national greatness agenda for russia again. he wants russia very much to be a player on the world stage. he wants russia to be respected on the world stage. he has said, you know, we're not going to be a super power, but he does want to play a role around the world whether it's syria or now ukraine. so clearly the question of predictability can be seen through that filter of here is a leader of russia who has given every indication that he wants to be a player and especially in what russia very much sees as its own backyard. so a lot of this may be

predictable and foreseeable but how you respond to it is still very, very tricky. for the united states wants to encourage what's going on in ukraine and wants to encourage a peaceful resolution to this. will the united states accept a de facto annexation if that's what it comes to here? and that's going to be the question. that's why you have to watch the president of the united states here very carefully when we do see him and see what his specific language is on this and what he says the united states will tolerate and what it won't tolerate. >> let's get more. joining us on the phone is willis sparks from the you're asia group. what's your take on the developments this hour? >> it's obviously very fluid. it appears we have russian troops moving more or less without any resistance at all between their naval base in nearby sevastopol and the capital. essentially what you have is a situation where ukraine central government back in kiev has lost de facto control of key parts of the crimea.

but having said that, you know, i think a larger issue that a lot of people are asking about right now is what does this mean for the rest of the country? and certainly our view is not much. this doesn't mean that much for some of the russian dominated provinces of the a historical c. going back to the 1950s, part of the soviet unioned gifted it to ukraine at a time when he was general secretary, from ukraine, lot of russians feel that this is frankly russian territory and they should have taken it back 20 years ago. there are other parts there are large concentrations, there are assets moving around in the area from russia and the ukranians are sitting tight. a comment from the acting president, we have seen this before, this is what the russians did with the georgians in 2008.

they baited them into a c confrontation confrontational. >> willis, doesn't that raise a central issue here? does the international community have to get involved if there's a breach of sovereignty? >> well, limited options. . the international commune tie can talk about sovereignty. unless someone is willing to step in and do something about it, what are you going to do? so, i suspect that president obama is going to make what he hopes will be a forceful statement, expressing respect for ukraine's sovereignty and calling on cooler heads to prevail. the reality is, no one wants a confrontation with russia. the u.s. is no position to pick

a fight with the russians, a lot of other important things going on in this country and other aspects of u.s. foreign policy. right now the russians are doing what they want and everybody is watching to see how far they're going to push this. >> willis, from the russian perspective, is this a case of here's ukraine a country that was starting to lean toward the west a little bit and that's what led to this uprising in the first place, and it's a place where, russia has really important strategic military assets, they're going to make a move to make sure their assets are protected. you could make the argument, of course, they're going to show some force here in the situation? >> i think that's exactly right and i think, actually, beyond the practicali isrussian assets the fact is, if president putin has a grand dream, it is to

create something that's called the eurasian union. and right now, there's a customs union that involves russia, belarus and kazahstan. without ukraine, there's really not much of a eurasian to talk about. ukraine was an industrial powerhouse in the soviet union, the bread basket of the soviet union. a country of 45 million people. that's very important with the buffer it creates between russia and europe. there is this tug of war the cliche of the day, because it's true, russia has various instruments to keep the ukranians close. there's lot of commerce flowing across the russian/ukranian

border. but there's a large percentage of ukraine's population, two-thirds are looking west. there is this tension that's not going to be resolved by the overturn of an election ten years ago or the bringing down of the government mow. >> thank you, willis, for your perspective. we want welcome to the program, former u.s. ambassador to the ukraine, john, what is the purpose of ukraine, investors sitting thousands of miles away. >> well, there's no question a what's happening in ukraine is critical for ukraine and for that matter, i would say, east/west relationships. ukranian people have been fed up with the government, a

government that use wifi on peaceful demonstrators. russia has reacted badly, as they have had throughout the crisis. they're playing with the notion of separatism in ukraine, which is only place in the country where they can do this. it looks like -- i heard a statement, we would be sending international media or the. the russians need to understand, if they continue this behavior, they may wind up paying the price. >> what is that price? is this as we have been hearing from other guests a situation unique to the history between ukraine and russia, is this something that we need to worry about, the template, the precedent or the message it sends more broadly? >> the russians have been playing unfortunate games with the post-soviet boborders.

they did it in 2008. they have been playing games in azeribaijan. this is one more example of that. i think it would be important for the international community, which means in the case, first and foremost the united states and the europe, to let the russians know that this behavior won't be accepted in ukraine and they can do that by pointing out that russia sa member of g-8. behavior that you expect from the g-8? is this something that's acceptable if russia is trying to dismantle a sovereign nation? >> kelly, you just wonder what the significance is here, we're getting mixed reports and so we need to be very clear about that, there are some reports here that russian troops here,

who have taken part in this action, aren't members of the russian military or may be contractors, you wonder politically what message it is that putin would be sending if that's what he can here, sending in contractors instead of troops, is that an effort to deescalate the tension. if that's what's going on here, that's something that we should look at now. >> mr. ambassador, if you're still with us, two questions, what do you think russia's goal, what is the endgame here? second, is it fair to categorize crew yanian government that -- >> on the first point the

russians are squeezing the ukranians even more. the russian foreign min city, in a statement, noted that the armed vehicles that have been moved out of the russian fleet are in fact russian. they have acknowledged that there are russian forces. and at this start, unlabeled forces. that didn't provoke a ukranian response. i don't see, fortunately, they haven't crossed any rubicons yet. but they're approaching a rubicon. regarding your second question, no doubt divisions in the country, linguistic and ethic. with the dismissal because he support in the east collapsed. the elite in ukraine, including in the east, they don't want to be under the thumb of the

kremlin. the party of the regions, they all left his side last thursday and friday. and that's when his position became -- >> that would reflect concerns more specific to this current administration or the soon to be former administration than with two -- then with the tug of war in that country more specifically, is that what you're saying? >> what i'm saying the prospect of the country splitting apart is a prospect of 20 years ago not of today. it's problematic in terms of succession. because you have a serious minority there, who were ethnically cleansed by stallin and they do not want to go to russia, that would be a serious problem for russia if that were to happen. >> thank you for adding your perspective on this.

i want to thank my panel for joining me. following all of these late-breaking events. we're out of washington, that's the briefing room that we're looking at. he was supposed to talk about 4:45. we'll hand it over to melissa lee and "fast money." we did see a marked turnaround, jitters throughout the day, it really picked up maybe in the last hour or so of trading. >> definitely so, for about 2:30 on, the intraday graph of the s&p, that's when we really fell off and this just -- this really is a fact that nobody wants all of this market at the high now. i haveea