like i say, there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to find it here on "mad money." i'm jim cramer. i'll see you tomorrow.ç president obama keeps the pressure on vladimir putin. as he imposes visa bans, pushes for other sanctions and denounces a plan in crimea. we have the latest to get putin to stand down. also, a late break, bad news for obamacare. "the washington post" reports that just one in ten of the uninsured americans eligible for obamacare have signed up. 90% of the very people this law was created for aren't buying. and we're just over 13 hours away from the big february jobs report. we're going to get you 100% prepared for tomorrow's release when we talk to a top ceo and our panel of money experts. all those stories and more coming up on "the kudlow report." beginning right now.

good evening, everyone. i'm larry kudlow. this is "the kudlow report." we are live here at 7:00 p.m. eastern and 4:00 p.m. pacific. we begin tonight with some breaking news. president obama has just finished the phone call with russian president vladimir putin. the white house says president obama reminded putin that his actions in ukraine are illegitimate. but there is a way to solve the conflict diplomatically. president obama also said secretary of state kerry would continue talks with russian foreign minister sergei lavrov. and dow jones reports the u.s. has joined the europeans in putting out a warning to all banks to watch out for any transactions made by former ukrainian president viktor yanukovych. let's get the latest in kiev from nbc's ian williams. good evening. >> reporter: good day to you. anger here in kiev as this

latest escalation of tension in crimea. the government in kiev saying that it was illegal, it was unconstitutional, also a little bit earlier today, i spoke to the u.s. ambassador here who described it as one more step in what he described as the creeping annexation of crimea by russia. seen from here, russia does seem to be in a real hurry to grab crimea, perhaps thinking if they can create facts on the ground there, it will become much more difficult to unravel under international pressure. you'll recall that the parliament in crimea, which is very pro-russian, had scheduled a referendum for the end of march. the question on that referendum was to beç greater autonomy, n independence. but today seemingly out of the blue, parliament passed a resolution calling for joining russia and leaving ukraine. now, that, they say, will be put to a referendum on the 16th of march, just ten days from now with little doubt about the

result. other menacing developments down in crimea today, the storming by armed men of the local television station, which was still broadcasting ukrainian programs. instead they put russian programs on the air. at the same time, the deputy head of the pro-russian administration down there said that once an independence vote is made -- and he's in little doubt it will be -- then the ukrainian troops who are still down there will be what he calls occupiers if they don't surrender their weapons. very worrying developments in this big escalation today down in crimea, larry. >> many thanks to ian williams. so as crimea gets ready to take a vote on becoming part of russia, take a listen to what the leader of ukraine's opposition parrot toty told cnb morning. >> he's worried as head of the ukraine. why? because ukraine -- the people

1p on't want to live with rulesr live without rules, live with the corruption without human rights. and that's why the people want the changes, if we will be successful, i'm more than sure everybody in the ukraine wants to live in a european country with european standards of life. it will be a very bad example for russia. >> joining us now is former white house national security adviser steven hadley and michael mcfall. mr. mcfall just days ago departed as u.s. ambassador to russia. gentlemen, thank you very much. begin with you, steve hadley. s president obama correctly said the referendum to join russia would be a breach of international law, a breach of ukraine's constitution. but i guess my question is, how can it be stopped? >> it probably can't be stopped

in terms of the referendum going forward with the russian troops basically occupying the country with the accelerated schedule, it's pretty clear and how it's going to come out, pretty unlikely that the referendum would be defeated. so it looks like that this reallyç is a grab. there were announcements today that the russian parliament is taking steps to ease the m cooing of crimea into russia should that referendum pass. so in the short run, it's probably going to be very difficult to block the referendum. the question is, what are the steps we should take to deter russia from trying this elsewhere? and then secondly, as klitschko said, we need to focus on building a prosperous, free and detective ukraine so at some point the people of crimea will realize the mistake they are making. >> i want to get back to that, back to your op-ed piece regarding steps that should be

taken let me get to ambassador michael mcfall. it seems like people want deals. but this annexation of crimea, if i may call it that, is not part of a deal. where does this put the putin/obama relationship today? >> well, this was a major escalation, a major move by president putin and his supporters in crimea. and i agree with steve. i don't see how you roll this back once they take this vote because president putin is going to say, look, i'm just respecting the will of the people of crimea. and how do you back down from that? what's the dealç you can put i place to say, well, actually we didn't mean that referendum? so i'm quite pessimistic about what happens next. with respect to the relationship with putin and obama, this is a very difficult moment in u.s./russian relations. it's a major turning point. i think it will be with us -- if this holds, this will be with us for months and years to come.

>> steve hadley, the president has also been very firm, at least at the level of rhetoric, talking today about visa sanctions and oligarch sanctions, what i call them. bank sanctions for people responsible for what happened in the ukraine, access to banks and so forth. how do you enforce those sanctions, steve hadley? i know we've talked about this before relative to the soviet, russian invasion into georgia. how do you enforce sanctions? >> we've actually learned a lot about sanctions in the last five years, largely learned at how to sanction iran in connection with their nuclear program. we now know how to go after oil and gas sanctions. we've done it in iran. we actually know how to exclude countries from the international financial system, particularly from the u.s. financial system. so the treasury department has been working on this andç we'v got a lot of ways to do this. we've also got the magnisky act,

allows them to freeze the assets in the united states and deny visas to those individuals and organizations that were part of this aggression in the crimea. >> we talked about this last night, very important. i just was speculating, mr. hadley. i don't know a thing. you know it, i don't know. both you know it but if the oligarchs who are so tight with putin wanted to come and go to the u.s., if they have assets deposited in u.s. banks and we stop that, wouldn't that be an effective way, wouldn't they get pretty angry at putin? >> i think one of the things you want to do in your sanctions is target people who have influence with president putin. and the oligarchs are certainly one group. the other thing is whether you can constrain movements of peoples, whether you constrain movements of diplomats. but i would not focus only on the sanctions. there are other things that we have done. we've increased the aircraft that are participating in the

air defense flying over the baltics. we've announced that we're going to expand u.s. participation in a military exercise in poland. i think it's also important to reassure the countries of central and eastern europe that we stand with them, to recommit to nato, recommit to the defense of europe. and at the same time do things that will hopefully deter president putin from trying this thing elsewhere. >> ambassador, what do you think of what mr. hadley wrote in his op-ed piece, deploy force, particularly regarding poland, the baltics and romania. dangling or moving forwards -- dangling is not the right word. moving towards nato membership. mr. hadley talked about montenegro, georgia, ukraine and mall doe va. would those steps be effective in your view? >> they're smart and have to be done. and i think this moment right now proves the wisdom of nato

expansion. there are lots of russians living -- ethnic russians living in nato countries. those countries are a lot safer today than ukraine is. but i don't think it will be -- it won't make putin reverse what he's doing in crimea. on the contrary, i think the discussion about sanctions -- economic sanctions, particularly looking at the financial system, if there comes a point in time where russian banks can't use american dollars to do transactions, that's goingç too a lot of damage to a lot of major -- not talking about multibillion-dollar corporations in russia that have assets all over the world. second, in the oil and gas sector, steve is absolutely right. i worked on sanctions for five years -- for three years when i was at the white house, with respect to iran. we've learned how to do it much better. and if you look at the largest joint venture -- potential joint venture between a russian state-owned company and a western company, it's rossneft

and exxonmobil. i thought that was a good deal in terms of integrating the russian economy. but if we're going to go towards a coercive way, that's going to be where you're going to hit the russian economy hard and the head of rossneft just happens to be a very close associate of vladimir putin. >> steve hadley, why isn't the u.s., particularly the administration, making a bigger push for liquid natural gas, something that could be exported? i know it's not going to happen in a day or a week. but they would make a strong statement, get the keystone pipeline through, start the approval, let's say speed up, lightning fast approval of lng projects, which people in the industry believes they could get it out in a couple of years? what's the am@nistration waiting for? >> i think the administration actually will come around to that view. i know house speaker boehner was calling for this just yesterday. i think this is a -- what we need to do is to reduce the

strategic dependence of europe on oil and gas from russia. and it's about diversification of supply lines, diversecation of source and using the availability of gas in the united states through lng to export to europe. all these things we need to do -- and they send a message that we need to send, which is over the long term, we're going to reduce puntin's leverage on europe and we're going to have the means then to sanction him in a way that is not going to be such an adverse impact on europe and hopefully that will serve to deter this kind of action in the future. >> last one, ambassador mcfaul, a lot of conservatives have been blaming president obama saying he wasn't prepared for this, he hasn't been a strong leader and so forth and so on. to me, right now, vladimir putin is the enemy, not president obama. so that's just my simple way of looking at life.

but i know you've been an influential adviser on russia. do you believe, sir,ç that the so-called russian reset in retrospect was a good idea? >> yes. and not because anybody was trying to make friends with vladimir putin or not. it was about pursuing american national interests. were we better off to have sanctions against iran? my answer is yes. and that was done by passing a u.n. security council resolution that brought that about. were we right to open up a northern distribution network to supply our troops through the north and not just through pakistan? my answer is yes. were we better off to sign the new start treaty? my answer is yes. are we better off with russia in the world trade organization? my answer is yes. that doesn't mean that somehow those things led to putin invading crimea. with all due respect, i do know my history of soviet interventions and russian interventions. russia invaded georgia when

national security adviser steve hadley was there, they didn't stop him. marshal law was declared in poland in 1981 when ronald reagan was in the white house. and despite all their efforts, they couldn't stop that. >> eventually they did. eventually reagan did with some help from ms. thatcher and pope john paul. i just want to --ç >> it took eight years after marshal law. >> i understand. i want to get mr. hadley in before we leave. i wanted you to rebut because this is a charge -- in my opinion, sir, and i'm a novice at this game -- vladimir putin is the enemy right now. president obama is not. that's just my view. on that point, but mr. hadley, was the russian reset a good or bad idea at the time? do you think it's helped or hurt our relationship? >> one, i think we ought to be rallying behind president obama. this is a difficult crisis. and i hope that on a bipartisan

basis the congress will come around and support what he's trying to do. secondly, michael's right. there were benefits from the reset. but i think we take some responsibility here. i think the bush administration, we did do some things in the wake of georgia. but we did not use economic sanctions against russia. i think in retrospect, that was a mistake. i think secondly that the obama administration moved too quickly to start the reset. we needed a reset, of course there would be. but it probably would have been better and i would feel better if we had used economic sanctions in the bush administration and the obama administration had then been able to continue them and to continue them longer before we did the respá. would it have made a difference? i don't know. but i'd feel a little bit better. i think michael would probably feel better if we'd done both of those. >> very interesting idea. >> gentlemen, we have to go. i appreciate your candor, both of you, steven hadley, ambassador michael mcfaul. hope you'll come back and help

us again on this difficult subject. we're almost exactly five years removed from the market bottom back in 2009. the dow fell to as low as 6,600 then. what if we took a deep breath and started buying, just at that moment? cnbc's dominic chu will join us with a look at some stocks you know are up a massive amount since that time. i mean massive amount. that's next up on "kudlow." later on, the countdown on for the big february jobs report, coming out at 8:30 tomorrow morning. many experts are predicting a very disappointing number. but you know what? many experts are frequently wrong. anyway, don't forget, free market capitalism is the best path to prosperity. free market capitalism and freedom are huge issues in this whole ukraine/putin argument. i'm ked lo. we'll be right lack.

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but, of course, some stocks have bounced back better than others. and we bring in dominic chu. he's here with a look at three stocks you should buy if you ever invent a time machine. >> absolutely. this time around, it's always hindsight to go back and say, i should have bought back then. but a lot of these companies ended up looking like dollar/penny stocks in the depth of the crisis back in march of 2009. we're going to highlight a few of them. let's go back in the time machine and say, hey, here's a company that we're going to put up a mystery chart for you. this stock, you could have bought it for 60 bucks back in march of 2009. it was founded in 1994. it's in seattle. it is a tech-ish type company, a survivor of the first internet stock boom. andç if i told you it was the biggest online retailer out there -- >> even i would know it's amazon. by the way, jim cramer and i

interviewed jeff bezos the night or the day after he reported his first quarterly profit. jimmy and i actually talked to him. >> this stock has gone from $60 to a $372 stock. massive return. this one is an industrial. you could have bought this bad boy for $4 per share back in march of 2009. now, it started in 1923 as a textile company. it owns cessna aircraft, the small aircraft, bell helicopters and for all you golfers out there, they're also the guys who make those ez-go golf carts. i'm talking about textron. it's an industrial conglomerate. >> whose former ceo, a good man, was a catastrophe as fed chairman in the 1970s. please go on. >> that stock is up 900%.

4 bucks to 40 bucks, not bad. we're going to end on a well-known company. it's up 2,100% since the march 2009 lows. if you had a time machine, you could have paid $3 per share back in march of 2009. this is a media giant of a company. it was formerly part of the viacom family of networks and now it is home to bob schieffer and the political show "face the nation" on sundays. you know which network i'm talking about. >> it is, of course, cbs. >> obviously a competitor here in this country. but that stock was a $3 stock back then. it's a $68 stock now. that's a 2,100% return just over that time span. >> we're not in a time machine, but the best performers since the bottom, consumer discretionary up 325%. >> absolutely. >> what's the biggest push -- cars are in there. >> sure. >> but you told me earlier, media is in there.

>> media is in there. cbs is part of that. you've got car, you've got travel and leisure, big names in hotels and airlines. you've got anything that the consumer spends money on is part of this broader -- >> last one, next best since the bottom, financials. >> yes. >> 258%. that's sort of an odd one because they've had so much trouble, so many questions -- is that because thek crashed so low or because they're good investment? >> they've bounced back a lot. the jury is still out. a lot of people are buying the big banks. you're talking about insurance companies, real estate companies. it's the big banks, yes, they did come back from the real depths of the crisis. >> but the federal government helped them a lot. >> of course. the federal government helped a lot of them. that's right. but also the real estate side of things is where people are getting a little more optimistic about things. if you look at commercial real estate, investment trusts, that

may show signs of life. if the bull run continues, then hopefully americans, two of the biggest things on their mind, unemployment, whether or not they have a job, and what their house is worth. >> and their stock portfolio. >> of course. >> i like the reit story. that's a good indicator of business. we're going to come back later in the show and talk about the new federal reserve numbers on household wealth that came out today. we hit a new record high. it has to be good for something. >> there's trillions mentioned in that story. >> dominic chu, is he the best or what? now, a mystery that is confounded the world of finance for years might finally be solvp". the elusive and secretive creator of bitcoin may have been found. cnbc went to his house today. we'll show you what happened next when we come back. please stay with us. ♪

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and run different - to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you. so if you're ready to see opportunities and see them through, we say: let's get to work. because the future belongs to those who challenge the present. welcome back to "the kudlow report." i'm bertha coombs with this news alert. a media circus today outside the l.a. home of the man "newsweek" says is the inventor of bitcoin. he is a 64-year-old software developer who lives in temple city, california, east of los angeles. he reportedly admitted to developing the controversial currency to "newsweek." today, if you take a look at the media scrum outside his home, he denied being involved with

bitcoin. but he was being swarmed by reporters as he was doing so. >> who is it? >> this is harriet. i'm here with cnbc. we wanted to ask you a couple of quick questions. >> i don't know who cnb is. >> here with a new station, cnbc, part of nbc. we wanted to ask you a couple of quick questions. >> i'm sorry. not interested. >> are you the founder of bitcoin? >> i'm sorry. i'm not interested. >> afterç denying it to our harriet taylor, he denied it again when he stepped outside and was surrounded. "newsweek's" report claims that he's been private about his career. as with the controversy surrounding bitcoin itself, the report is now raising questions because it is based on circumstantial evidence. meantime, tonight, larry,

japan's finance minister, taro aso, says he's unsure. and there is discussion within the japanese government as to who should regulate bitcoin following the fall of the mt. gox exchange. >> i wrote a column on this whole thing. thank you for your report. i just want to say once again, bitcoin is not real money. period. end of sentence. other than that, i don't know this guy. i don't know a thing about him. bertha coombs, i know a lot about you. great work. thanks for helping us out. now, the delays and changes to obamacare just keep coming. so does special exemptions for the unions. get this, it's almost all for nothing. the latest breaking story from "the washington post" today shows only a tiny handful of the previously uninsured are actually signing up for obamacare. the whole point of the law is ç moot. we need a moratorium on all of it if you ask me. senator john thune about to join us to talk about all of it.

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yesterday we told you about the latest late-breaking obamacare change. allows people to keep their noncompliant health care plans until 2016. but guess what? it was another outrage politically charged decision buried deep in the obama

administration's 335-page report, namely, starting next year, many union health plans will be exempt from obamacare's reinsurance fee. that may force everyone else to pay extra to cover this convenient union crony carveout. joining us, senate republican conference chairman john thune of south dakota. senator thune, as always, welcome back to "the kudlow report." let me get this right. this thing is couched, renewals can take place if you get -- you got a couple of more years for renewals. but in the fine print, a lot of labor unions who are self-insured don't have to pay this tax or fee, why is that? >> larry, nice to be with you, as always.ç this is cronyism at its worst. what they did -- and this might explain why the unions when they met at the white house here not too long ago were very muted when they came out. i think they got exactly what they wanted. they got an exemption from the

reinsurance tax that's supposed to apply to all self-insured plans to help fund the cost of caring for people with pre-existing conditions. and so the unions basically now have gotten a waiver from that, which means all the other self-insured plans are going to have to pay more because this was set to raise a certain amount of revenue and so to get to that amount of revenue, that means they have to assess these other self-insured plans. it is an amazing just defiance, i think, of the law and the american people and all the other taxpayers across this country are going to get stuck paying the bill. >> i think they were looking to raise $20 billion, $25 billion. but labor unions are self-insured. aren't there a lot of businesses that are self-insured and are you inferring that somebody's going to have to pay a higher tax in order to make those numbers meet? >> sure they are. the way this thing works is -- you said it, $25 billion in revenue. and so what they spread that among a certain number of folks

who are in self-insuredç plans. when you exempt all the ta taft-hartley plans, the union self-insured plans, it means that gets spread among those left to pay it. you've got businesses, charitable organizations, other folks out there who are insuring themselves, who have to pay this assessment, this tax, if you will, reinsurance tax, to help cover the cost of people with pre-existing conditions. >> churches? >> yeah, and churches, you're exactly right. there are charitable organizations out there all of whom are going to be stuck with a higher bill because the president chose to do a political favor for his donors and his allies, in this case, the labor unions. >> what gives him the authority to do this? this goes back to the whole bigger picture issue. what gives him the legal authority to just change these laws willy-nilly? you've got liberal law professors like jonathan turley at george washington saying, everybody's going to rue the

day, democrats will rue the day they give mr. obama this kind of power. now republicans will come in and change laws democrats don't want. this is not a small change. this is a big money change. >> it really is. and it's the 30th or thereabouts waiver or delay or exemption orç carveout for a favored constituency of the president. if you're a friend of the president, you get treated differently than the rest of the american people. and i think that's what's such an outrage about this. and the question is, on what authority does he do it? obviously with the democrats controlling the senate here on capitol hill, he has the votes. about the only way you're going to be able to stop him is to go to court. and there are some organizations who will be doing that. >> they're going to rue the day. let me move on, another subject. late in the day, posted on the front page of "the washington post" website, by amy goldstein, a pair of surveys out today, n mckenzie and company, get this,

one in ten -- only one in ten uninsured people who would qualify for private health plans through the new marketplace have signed up. one in ten. 10%. >> right. >> that has to be a disaster. this is the liberal entitlement state crumbling before our eyes. this is exactly what they didn't want. i don't get it. >> well, i think what's happening is the american people have turned thumbs down on this. there was a poll last week, a "new york times" poll, national media poll in which only 6% of the people polled thoughtç tha the health care law was working as it was intended. 92% either said it needs to be changed or repealed. so i think there's just a rejection by the american people of this, larry. and the fact that the president continues to have to do these carveouts and delays and exemptions suggests that they know it is hurting and harming americans. and that's why they're delaying

it. if it's so good for people, why are they delaying and why are people -- as you said, one in ten all eligible for it signing up for it? >> the last point, you've got a three-year extension for the renewal of canceled insurance projects, a lot of people. you've got a two-year extension for business. i'm sure that's going to be a three-year extension. i'm willing to bet the entire thing, this march 31st date is going to be extended because nobody's signing up. i said, how about a three-year moratorium on the entire plan? that doesn't mean you repeal everything. that means you go back and let the congress rework this program. you're already halfway there. obama's doing it himself. no mandates in the meantime, no mandates, no tax penalties, no insurance company billouts and moratorium. he's doing it himself. why don't you do itç and make official and then just start all over again? >> i'm with you on that.

i think that would be a great idea. i actually think that this march 31st deadline where the individual mandate kicks in, do you really think they're going to enforce the penalties if people don't sign up? >> of course not. >> i don't think they are. i think you'll see that delayed, too. it would make sense to go back and do that. i think the president and his party up here in congress who jammed this through, they are going to rue the day that, one, they put this thing through on a total party line basis but secondly now that the president has by unilaterally his own authority decided to waive huge elements and portions of this -- i think that's going to come back to haunt them. but the best solution would be to just stop it for everybody and let's go back and start over. >> time-out. stop it. time-out, moratorium because you're right, sir. what's bad for the goose will be bad for the gander. that's what a lot of these democrats don't seem to understand, giving mr. obama that kind of authority. senator john thune, we thank you very much for coming back on the show. now, on the eve of the big

jobs report tomorrow, we want to get a top ceo's take on the economy right now and where he thinks it's going. the ceo, tom rogers, from tivo is going to join us live up next.ç please stay with us. we're "kudlow." so our business can be on at&t's network for $175 a month?

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just what's holding business back from hiring and kicking the economy into high gear? is it taxes? is it obamacare? washington budget gridlock? who knows? anyway, we bring in our show for the first time, i guess, to share his economic perspective from the corner office, tivo president and ceo, tom rogers. a very old friend. tom, thank you for coming on. >> thanks for having me. i can't believe after all these years involved with cnbc from the very beginning and you're starting here that i've never been on your show before. great to be here. >> i am pleased to have you here. i want to get to the tivo turnaround in a minute. but give me your take on the economy and business. where do we stand now in your vision? >> i'm not going to predict job report numbers. but we clearly need more consumer demand. and the key issue is, isn't

there enough consumer demand? there's not because we have a job creation problem. number that's not the right number to look at. it's how many people are really participating in the economy versus what used to be. we've seen no growth there at all. the kind of job creation we're having, whatever the number is, isn't enough to really get job participation back at those levels. >> i think you're spot-on. how do you kick that into high gear? >> well, i happen to have a view that where we have the problem is at the lower end of the economy. i think college graduates, people with graduate degrees, could we do more? yes. but unemployment there and job participation is okay. the other end of the economy where you're seeing people leave the job market, high school graduates, male high school graduates, we have a problem because we lost so many construction jobs. we don't have the kind of opportunities there to bring jobs back.

my immediate answer, and it's tempered by another answer, but my immediate answer, probably not one you like, is we do need some infrastructure stimulus. we've got to do something here to create the kind of jobs -- >> i'm okay with infrastructure. what i'm not okay with is using infrastructure as some short-term stimulus plan. it's like the president saidç couple of years ago. there weren't as many shovel-ready jobs as he predicted. any congressman will tell you from the transportation committee, we need more infrastructure, bridges, tunnels -- >> look at any airport. >> but you have to have a ten-year horizon. that's the way that game works. now, i want to ask you this. you won't like this question. is obamacare holding back hiring? are they worried about taxes and regulation? and i'll ask you another one, is it spending and deficits and debt and the threat of higher taxes? is that part of the mix? >> obamacare obviously has its

issues and the latest development today is a further indication of that. but i don't believe anybody is really not hiring because of obamacare. it's a variable health care cost for your employees. what you do with that. but i don't really believe it stops individual hires. what i do believe is that health care costs are a fundamental part of solving our long-term debt equation. i happen to be part of the ceo group of "fix the debt," a critical bipartisan effort on the part of ceos to bring some real attention to the long-term debt issue. that's got to be fixed. that, too, is a long-term horizon issue. you can't look at itç as a single-year effort in one form or another. >> we need a deal. >> we need a deal and health care costs are key. >> just in the last -- you're going to come back in the next segment. who is romeo and why is that crucial to the tivo turnaround?

>> romeo is tivo, romeo is our newest product and it's a play on words. for those who love television, romeo in the shakespearean sense and roameo, no matter where you are, you have a tablet with you, i was in montreal this morning. opened up my ipad, watched my home television set while i was up in canada. it gives you the full flexibility to have your television with you wherever you are. and for people passionate about television, that mobility thing is a big thing. >> is that something you're going to set up in my home? >> we're going to turn you into a -- >> i have to do better. >> -- a romantic guy when it comes to television. >> tom rogers, please stay -- >> i tivo you efe e night.

>> you had a great turnaround. you're known for that. that's a great congratulations to you. >> thank you. >> we want you to join our stock market panel and talk a little bit about jobs. we're going to preview the big jobs report tomorrow. we also want to take to the markets and see whether it's going to come back or not. i'm kudlow. stay with us. much more to do tonight. but it's our job to find them. the answers. the solutions. the innovations. all waiting to help us build something better. something more amazing. a safer, cleaner, brighter future. at boeing, that's what building something better is all about. ♪ impact wool exports from new zealand, textile production in spain, and the use of medical technology in the u.s.?

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nonfarm payrolls to come in at 152,000. they think the unemployment rate ticks lower to 6.5%. so will frozenomics puts the job report on ice or is there an upside surprise ahead? brian kelly, john sylvia and tom rogers with us. john, 150,000. you taking the over or the under? >> we're taking the under at 135,000. we certainly agree with the unemployment rate at 6.5%. but i agree with mr. rogers, the point being is that we're looking at the participation rate and the unemployment population ratio giving us a sense of the total labor market input into the overall economy, along with the aggregate hours index.ç i agree with mr. rogers. that's going to really tell us what's going on --

>> mr. rogers is dead right on this. but i have to follow up. you said you're taking the under, is that right? i want to get this straight. the under? >> yeah, i've got the under, 135,000. >> now tell me why in succinct fashion you're taking the under. >> i think there is a definite weather effect going on relative to trend. it's the weather. >> all right. it's the weather. do you agree with that, brian kelly? >> well, yes and no. i take the under, i agree with him on that. i think there's more to it than weather. when i look at services that's where you're starting to see a decline. we even saw it in the revisionses back in november when it wasn't weather. so to me, i think there is a trend of weakening job growth. but i think tomorrow if we get an under, the market's not going to care. everybody's going with weather. >> say you get 80,000, 85,000, what does it do to the stock market? >> who cares? >> say you get 225,000 -- >> market rips. >> right now -- i don't know. i'm a bridge player. not a poker player.

i take the over. >> you take the over. >> i do take the over, just because all you guys are so pessimistic. >> that's true. >> you're saying the market goes to hell if -- >> i think the market goes higher if we get 225,000.ç i think people have fully priced in and fully understood what a tapering -- that tapering is going to be here unless the economy craters, we're going to have tapering. that's priced into the market. then you get, things are better than we thought. what happens if the weather gets better? now we're going to get 250,000s, 275,000s. >> new york federal reserve president bill dudley, interviewed today by the ace reporter of "the wall street journal." dudley says his economic outlook is optimistic, 3% growth, and the fed's not going to change its policy of slowing down bond purchase. he's optimistic. he says 3%. do you agree or disagree with bill dudley? he's the new york fed, the vice chairman of the open market -- >> that's interesting because i

spent half my week in silicon valley and i spent half my week in new york. when i spend that time in silicon valley, that 3% sounds about what people think. maybe even a little better. there's an optimism out there. surprisingly, it's optimism based on creating companies that don't necessarily create jobs as opposed to creating productivity, which hurts jobs. but there's an optimism there. when i'm in new york, it's kind of the economy is going to be tepid. i'm not sure the people i talk to feel that there's a clear 3% consensus at this point.ç and there's a little more pessimism. blend the two, you get probably close to 3%. >> i worry about new york as horses. this mayor who is not my favorite mayor wants to do away with the horse carriages on central park. what are we going to do with those poor horses? horses are like live -- we have to worry about horses. i don't like that at all. john, we got a big report on u.s. household net worth. a record. >> yes, sir.

>> a record $80.7 trillion. a new record. and also inside that record, profits hit a new record, 12.7% of gdp. i want to know, something good's got to come out of that if net wealth and profits are at record highs. >> i think, again, when you start out with the wealth factor, it's homes and it's financial markets, financial assets. i think what's going to come out is a much better consumer spending number in 2014 relative to 2013. so from my point of view, we do think growth in 2014 is going to be better than 2013. i'm not sure how mr. dudley is calculating that 3% number, if it's a year-over-year number, we'll take the under on that one. we don't think the economy will be thatç strong. but it will be better than last year. >> brian kelly, something good -- i don't know whether it's going to be 3% or not. let's say dudley is right. these are facts, through the

fourth quarter from the federal reserve fund. $70.7 trillion. homes and stocks have risen, the two biggest drivers in this. some good's got to come out of that. wealth leads to spending and investment and growth. it's got to. >> right. that was the whole plan, to prime the pump. that's where we are right now. whether we've reached that escape velocity -- i don't think we have. i think we're still probably about 2%, 2.5% economy at best. but you have to be concerned about what's happening elsewhere. whether china's going to derail us. that's what the risk to this economy and this market are, are outside our control. >> i actually am coming around to disagreeing with that. i think profits are everything. tom rogers, you get the last statement. would you buy or sell stocks here? >> i would be a cautious buyer of stocks, but i am a much bigger believer that when it comes to consumer spending and therefore something igniting jobs, people feeling confident about the housing market means

more than the stock market. you've got to have a broader feeling of wealth. >> that's a plus, too. thank you. appreciate it. tom rogers, great stuff. nice to have you on.ç john, thank you. brian, thank you. that's it for this evening's show. i'm kudlow. we'll be back tomorrow night. we'll talk about jobs. there's a saying around here, you stand behind what you say. around here you don't make excuses. you make commitments. and when you can't live up to them, you own up, and make it right. some people think the kind of accountability that thrives on so many streets in this country has gone missing in the places where it's needed most. but i know you'll still find it when you know where to look.

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