what's going on in the markets because the nasdaq is on pace for its largest weekly loss in 11 months. on a good note -- >> how much is the s&p down? >> it is down just a tiny little bit. >> just down -- >> but we're better than the rest of the world so far this year. thanks for watching, everybody. and welcome to "the closing bell" on this friday. i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange where the dow is trying to avoid losing ground for a fifth consecutive day. >> it's been up and down today, but so far down day for the dow would mean a loss every day this week. that hasn't happened in a five-day week in nearly two years. the ukraine mess hanging over the heads of investors right now with an international showdown looming over the weekend, but there is someone not worried about all that. we'll talk about that coming up. warren buffett telling cnbc exclusively nothing going on in the world right now changes his

mind about where stocks are going for the long term, and that's higher. a lot higher as a matter of fact. we'll hear more from warren buffett coming up here. >> general motors doing more damage control today after a report shows there was a simple fix to the ignition problem that costs as little as $1 a car. the company made a so-called business decision not to spend that money. today we investigate how a decision like that ever gets made in a company like gm. the answer is illuminating and alarming. it continues to be the story gripping the entire world. more fast moving developments in the malaysia aramis tri including evidence that's prompting investigators to become more convinced this was not an accident and the flight may have been deliberately diverted. or something worse maybe. we're going to try and have the very latest for you coming up a little later. >> certainly not helping to soothe markets right now. the dow popping up a little bit since we just mentioned it was off 50. it's now off only about 38.

16,070 is the level. the nasdaq up 12 points today and the s&p 500 off 4, 1842 is the level there. the fact is sliced so quickly through 1850 where there had been some sense of support is certainly what traders are watching. >> something one of our next guests is watching in our "the closing bell" exchange. diane from clear alternatives, kenny polcari. bill smith, jason pride and our own rick santelli. and, kenny, does anybody want to be long this market going in? the big referendum on crimea possibly joining russia is on sunday, and washington says they will stand ready, whatever that means, should this referendum pass. what does that mean for the stock market? >> here is what i think. i think that's what's baked into the stock market. i think people expect crimea is going to go. i think they expect the u.s. and eu will stand up and impose sanctions.

as long as russia doesn't move into ukraine, i actually think that the market is expecting that. you might see the market attempt to rally on monday as a result. >> jason, what do you think and how does it play into the decisions people are making? >> sure. this year we've been saying that investors need to be constructively positioned. that means hague a littving a l of overweight to equities. economics are relatively decent. you might be pushing higher generally. what we haven't been recommending is we've been telling investors be careful not to get too far over your skis. don't be in a position where you're so overweight equities that when these things like ukraine come around or like the emerging market complex having some issues or china having some issues or even europe with their asset quality or later this year probably having some issues, there's going to be risk. some investors will bail out of the market. that's going to be providing opportunities for investors to buy and you need to be in a position where you will be

comfortable buying in that environment and that means being only modestly overweight equities not all the way over your skis so you are freaking out if the markets take a little bit of a dive. >> let's talk about the economic data that has suggested an economic slowdown in china, and i sense a possible conflict among a couple of our guests here. diane, you call this more important than ukraine. bill smith, you say china is merely noise. have at it. diane, you first. >> absolutely. i think one of the things that's really key, of course, the ukraine is an issue, and we all are concerned about the people of the ukraine. but one of the things that's key is we have this dramatic slow go down happening in china. it's a long-term phenomena. and the other thing that's really important, many chinese companies use copper as their collateral. we've had these dramatic prices with copper and we see a very strong dollar. that means individual companies

throughout china could also be in trouble when their banks call them and ask them to recollateralize these loans. i think china can pose a much larger problem than the market is already giving it credit for. >> bill, why do you think this is noise? >> china is not a consumption country, so i don't think it really affects america or the rest of the world that much. i think the events in the ukraine, i think that's why the markets sold off going into today and into monday, but i think as long as we get out of the ukraine without any conflict, i think the markets rally next week. juneau, bill, there's a line out of china picked up by the news wire. government source saying don't panic if first quarter gdp target is below. what opportunities does that create? >> as clear a message as they can come out of china. if anybody believes anything china says, i guess you can put something into that, but i

don't. so i really think china is not material here. >> rick santelli, let me move on here because, again, this is another day, rick, where equity traders are watching the bond market very carefully and the message from the ten-year treasury. what is it telling you today? >> well, the fact that once again we traded down to a yield level close to 2.60%, did not go through it. the reason it's important, the february 3rd low closing yield for the tens was 2.57%. that's hugely important. i couldn't tell today, bill, if we were following stocks or they were following us. yesterday i thought it was more clear that we were leading the way on the treasury side. that makes me a little nervous, to see it's a tough call, to see we're not at the low yields even though there's some time left leads me to believe that what's going on in crcrimea, what may happen on sunday, obviously it's all important. countries have that nuclear

weapons, fat tails, anything could happen. but most likely as i look at the eurocurrency, still very close to 139, i don't see that this thing is going to move in ugly ways. natural gas, whether it's the money that putin needs, look at what his stock market and his currency have done or that europe and merkel need, i think that's going to take care of things outside of who is bossing the country around. as for china, our guest is right, they're not a consumption economy, but, gee, what happens when you have all those people that you're trying to feed, you have moved from rural areas and urban areas, you tried to improve the middle class, they will knock the price of exports down. that will affect europe. all that, of course, affects the u.s. and not the least of which to mention is what happens to the german economy already dealing with a high-priced currency if they have to compete on an export level. that's where it starts to unravel. >> jason, if investors wanted a

port in the storm, it's interesting gold and silver have behaved as they have. they're up 13%, 8% respectively but they haven't been that correlated to what's happening with stocks. are you telling people to start looking at these precious metals again? >> we are not actually. they've come down a good degree, but when it turns to precious metals, they provide insurance, they provide some sort of protection or noncorrelation or diversification versus other things in the portfolio. they occupy a little bit of a spot on that basis but at some point insurance is too expensive. i think those valuations even on gold at these points, even down from the $1,800 announced level is still too expensive of insurance to be buying in portfolios. it's not the best way do it. if you're going to get insurance, do it in other ways. you can do it with municipal securities which are a better run for taxable investors. there's some institutional investors that are even buying that as an offset to the risk in their equity port portfolios.

there are cheaper options you can provide insurance to your portfolio with. >> kenny, kelly mentioned the support levels on the s&p that we've blown through this week. walk us through this last hour and what you're going to watch here, especially since we are below the 1850 level right now. >> so we're testing 1840 and i think 1830 is really the number on the s&p. that's the 50-day moving average. that's where it's going to want to test to see if there's really support. i wouldn't be surprised if we see it in the last hour, the market get weaker as we move into the closing bell just because it's the weekend that's coming and it's going to create that kind of nervousness. that being said, i think it's going to find support at 1830. on the other hand, just another note on the gold issue, keep your eyes on that chart. you're about to have a golden cross where the 50 day crosses up to the 200 day. as a technical bullish buy signal or gold and gold probably has a little more on the upside. the august highs of 1415, 1418.

>> diane, what do you think about the precious metals? >> people prekly go to precious metals as a hedge but one of the things that's important to think about is after this weekend when we start trading on monday again, that also ends up being expiration week. i think with the higher volatility, when people are looking for incremental yield, higher volatility means that selling options will be a much better way to generate that marginal yield relative than just going out and buying commodities. i think it's going to take us another two weeks before we really get a clean look at this market. so a lot of open interest in the market right now in the options market that needs to work its way through next week. >> bill smith, what are you doing to navigate our market? >> i think you stay with companies have that event driven situations going on, spinoffs, share buybacks, mergers, acquisitions. there's a catalyst that are going to create value for you. >> how many decimal points of pi can you name?

>> how many decimal points of what? >> pi. it's pi day. >> i think i only can go to 3.14. i don't know the rest. if you'd asked me about 30 years ago, maybe. listen, one more point we have to bring up, yesterday when we saw the federal reserve information come out and their balance sheet is now $4.18 trillion, there was also a category called foreign central bank holdings. >> yes. i'm so glad you mentioned this. >> $4 billion and speculation is certainly that maybe something -- >> it was one of the biggest moves we've seen with foreign central banks dumping u.s. treasuries and yet the yield was rallying. this was three times the size -- >> because i don't think it was a sell. and you brought up the salient feature, everybody is debating this via e-mail. it probably wasn't sold. it was probably just transferred off the fed balance sheet. >> ah-ha. thank you. happy pi day. happy st. paddy's day almost.

>> beware the ides of march. >> apparently we're getting snow again come monday. could be a lot, too. don't blame the messenger. 30 minut 50 minutes left in the trading session. the dow trying to avoid five consecutive down days but down 41 points. >> russia's stock market hitting a 4 1/2-year low ahead of the referendum to secede from ukraine. will those kind of ugly losses only be confined to russia? later, we get a report on that malaysian airliner mystery. suspicions are growing foul play may have been involved. if you could only own one of these two stocks, which one would it be? visa or mastercard? we'll try to get the answer from dom chu and seema mody. stay with us. stay with us.

no two people have the same financial goals. pnc investments works with you to understand yours and helps plan for your retirement. talk to a pnc investments financial advisor today. ♪ just take a closer look. it works how you want to work. with a fidelity investment professional... or managing your investments on your own. helping you find new ways to plan for retirement. and save on taxes where you can. so you can invest in the life that you want today. tap into the full power of your fidelity greenline. call or come in today for a free one-on-one review.

(announcer) scottrade knows our and invest their own way. with scottrade's smart text, i can quickly understand my charts, and spend more time trading. their quick trade bar lets my account follow me online so i can react in real-time. plus, my local scottrade office is there to help. because they know i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. i'm with scottrade. (announcer) ranked highest in investor satisfaction with self-directed services by j.d. power and associates.

the russian stock market has been hitting a 4 1/2-year low ahead of this weekend's terroripivotal

referendum. >> hi, kelly. well, this referendum is now only two days away. a meeting in london today between secretary of state john kerry and his russian counterpart didn't make any progress. lavrov came out of that meeting saying there was no shared vision, which seems a bit of an understatement. it does now seem that russia is going to press ahead quickly with the formal annexation of this peninsula soon after the referendum results announced on monday or tuesday a referendum that will almost certainly endorse them joining russia. at the same time we can expect to see european and u.s. sanctions click in as early as next week. so things now really coming to a head. the defense ministutistry in mo saying there are 8,500 russian troops on exercise close to the

east ukraine border. now, president putin has said he has no intention of invading east ukraine, but, of course, he did say he had no intention either of annexing crimea a short while ago. now, here the situation is very tense. we have seen rival protests. ukrainian activists have complained of intimidation. there have been disappearances. two days to go, very tense. back to you guys. >> nbc's ian williams there. >> ian, thanks very much. >> thank you. >> so what's next for the markets amid this geopolitical and economic uncertainty? let's bring in terry miller, former ambassador to the united nations economic and social council. ambassador, it's great to have you with us. what do you expect will happen over the weekend? >> well, i expect this referendum to go ahead and i expect the people will vote in favor of some sort of greater relationship with russia. the question then is what do we do about it? and there's been a lot of tough

talk, but we have to wait and see what actions are actually taken. >> well, the talk is about economic sanctions. a, should they, b, would they work? >> well, i think almost certainly they should be. we in the west need to make some sort of response, but the initial sanctions we're talking about are very modest. they're on individuals, things like travel restrictions and asset freezes on individuals. that, of course, can expand in the future to things like cutting off all relationships between russian banks and western banks. that would have a severe impact on russia. >> mr. ambassador -- >> yes. >> i'm sorry, go ahead. >> well, already in russia you see the stock market is in free fall, the ruble is in free fall, interest rates are up, capital is fleeing out of the country. the real question has to be does vladimir putin care about any of this? i think in the short run the answer is probably not. >> i was just going to ask what you think his end game is here? what is the strategy?

what is vladimir putin thinking? >> i don't think he wants to push this too much farther. he's made a huge gain in the short run in this move into crimea. at the same time the situation overall in ukraine is not necessarily favorable for him. certainly what's going on in the western part of ukraine is that people there are being driven ever more closely towards europe and the european union. so i think at some point putin is going to have to stop and sit back and take stock of where he is before he makes any further moves. >> we all know how dependent europe is on the russian natural gas. i mean, he uses that as a sort of a weapon economically against europe, but at the same time during this crisis we realize the possibility of exporting u.s. natural gas, not in the near term, but eventually. i mean, does this alter a fundamental relationship do you think down the road between

europe and russia if, in fact, the u.s. can make up the difference for what they will not be getting in terms of natural gas from russia? and would that matter to vladimir putin? >> i think a crisis like this certainly ought to make russia -- european leaders realize the vulnerability that they have created because of their dependency on russian natural gas. at the same time vladimir putin is just as dependent on the europeans for the revenue that comes in from those sales of russian natural gas. so there's quite a bit of interdependence there, but you raise the question of u.s. exports, and it's absolutely criminal that we have these restrictions by our federal government on the export of our own natural gas. that's a long-term solution, but it's certainly one we ought to be undertaking. >> i wonder if we ought to be thinking about this, just strategically from russia's point of view, wanting to secure access to ports on the black sea, potentially on the baltic

sea, given the arctic sea is the only other real option. if that's the case sort of viewing ukraine as a strategic asset and understanding why he is stone ya might be so concerned and if all of this is true and russia is looking to assert its influence in the key regions and more broadly, what does nato do? >> well, that's the key question. nobody wants a military confrontation with russia, and i'm certain that russia doesn't want a military confrontation with the west. but at the same time we've been offering -- we've been in a posture of strategic weakness for the last five years or so, and we've withdrawn, we withdrew our missile defense forces from poland and chezechoslovakia jus in a sort of unilateral concession to russia, and we didn't respond strongly to russia's move into georgia.

i think from vladimir putin's point of view, he sees a west, and particularly a united states that's in retreat, not massive retreat, but in a retreat at the margins, and he's trying to move in and take advantage of that. >> okay. this weekend will be key in how all of that plays out. mr. ambassador, thank you so much for your time. >> my pleasure. about 40 minutes to go to the close. the dow is off 31 points. the s&p 500 off 4, 1842 is the level there. general motors recall crisis has been escalating in the last 24 hours. nbc news breaking the story that gm engineers found a partial fix for the faulty ignition switches nine years ago. that fix would have cost $1 per car, and it was a business decision made not to implement it. fim phil lebeau with the latest developments. it's not just what's is in your wallet, instead, it's what to be in your portfolio. visa versus mastercard.

which one is a better buy? that's coming up. that's coming . [ male announcer ] it's simple physics... a body at rest tends to stay at rest... while a body in motion tends to stay in motion. staying active can actually ease arthritis symptoms. but if you have arthritis, staying active can be difficult. prescription celebrex can help relieve arthritis pain so your body can stay in motion. because just one 200mg celebrex a day can provide 24 hour relief for many with arthritis pain and inflammation. plus, in clinical studies, celebrex is proven to improve daily physical function so moving is easier.

celebrex can be taken with or without food. and it's not a narcotic. you and your doctor should balance the benefits with the risks. all prescription nsaids, like celebrex, ibuprofen, naproxen and meloxicam have the same cardiovascular warning. they all may increase the chance of heart attack or stroke, which can lead to death. this chance increases if you have heart disease or risk factors such as high blood pressure or when nsaids are taken for long periods. nsaids, like celebrex, increase the chance of serious skin or allergic reactions, or stomach and intestine problems, such as bleeding and ulcers, which can occur without warning and may cause death. patients also taking aspirin and the elderly are at increased risk for stomach bleeding and ulcers. don't take celebrex if you have bleeding in the stomach or intestine, or had an asthma attack, hives, other allergies to aspirin, nsaids or sulfonamides. get help right away if you have swelling of the face or throat, or trouble breathing. tell your doctor your medical history. and find an arthritis treatment for you. visit celebrex.com and ask your doctor about celebrex. for a body in motion.

welcome back. just because two companies do virtually the same thing doesn't mean they will be virtually the same investment. >> indeed. our dominic chu and seema mody are looking at stocks that appear to be very similar but might not be from an investment standpoint. dom, you are taking visa. seema, you have mastercard. why is visa the better bet? >> i think visa is a better bet but i'm going to be a gentleman and go ladies first. >> thank you so much. >> seema, you take the stage first. >> let's talk about credit card

companies. their businesses sare so heavil tied to the economy. transactions increase, that's a boon for these type of companies for mastercard, profits rose 3%. analysts say when you sift through the tea leaves the numbers look encouraging. for example, processed transactions increased year-over-year, cross border volume also up in january. management also said that the u.s. economy is showing forward momentum. now, another reason to be bullish on mastercard is its buy back plan. it repurchased plenty shares in q4 and in january. it has $3.3 billion left under the existing plan. it upped the dividend by 83%. you want a company that's submitted to its shareholders, this one is a name. >> i want to take a look at the chart of visa. first of all, over the course of the past year, it's up 37%. that's actually a slight underperformance to master cord, i will concede that, but just this year alone in 2014, that

right-hand side of the chart here, it's actually just about flat on the year versus mastercard which is down. visa has $127 billion market value. it is the 800 pound gorilla. it trades with a forward earnings multiple of 23 times earnings. again, that's slightly less than mastercard. also got 18% long term earnings growth. that's a big deal as well. with the visa by the numbers, you're talking about investing in best of breed and the biggest company on the block. these guys are a tough, tough act to follow here. >> i see that, i can understand that. when i speak to analysts in terms of what factors that could help mastercard in the future, the real growth driver seems to be its expansion overseas. citi, analysts write that a push into international markets could help shares move higher. there's cowan and co highlighting another opportunity and that's electronic payments. while most transactions are

doing using cash, mastercard's growing share of the electronic payment market will be a positive. that's what cowan and co says. >> visa is in all of those and on a bigger scale. here is the bullish case for visa. if you look at the average target price is 257 bucks a share. that's what wall street says 3 out of every 4 analysts has this stock rated a buy. that target price implies a 17% upside to just where visa stock is trading right now. it's no long-term debt on this balance sheet. that means it's financially more stable. it doesn't have a lot of risks that having a leveraged -- and share buy backs. this is $5 billion and they have $4.2 billion left on current authorization. $4.2 billion, a little over $3 billion, they have a lot more. >> compare dividends as well. >> dividends are just about the same. >> it's a tough choice. >> we had to really struggle to come up with a bull/bear case on

this particular debate. >> big debates going on in this newsroom. >> admirably gone. i would have gone with see ma first as well but the script asked me to start with you.com. >> i totally get it, bill. >> good job. see you later. 30 minutes left in the trading session. the dow down 30 points. this would be the fifth consecutive down day for the average. first time we've seen that since may of 2012 and by the way, we're down 2% on the dow this week. same thing for the nasdaq. crimea, the global economy, the missing malaysia airlines jet. the weekend is finally here but plenty of uncertainty is coming with it. we'll talk to two pros next about how this could play out for your money. >> later, ron insana writing a piece on cnbc.com that makes the case that the u.s. is shaping up to be the only super power on the planet. ron will be here to tell us why so stick around for that. ameriprise asked people a simple question: can you keep your lifestyle in retirement?

i don't want to think about the alternative. i don't even know how to answer that. i mean, no one knows how long their money is going to last. i try not to worry, but you worry. what happens when your paychecks stop? because everyone has retirement questions. ameriprise created the exclusive confident retirement approach. to get the real answers you need. start building your confident retirement today.

heading towards the close, the markets starting to come back here. wondering whether we have five consecutive down days for the dow. hasn't happened in almost two years. but we may turn positive here.

i'm jinx i'll jinx it as we head to the close. the dow down 19 points, was down 50 points at the low of the session. nasdaq and the s&p also coming back here. >> warren buffett telling "squawk box" another financial crisis is in the future, it's just a matter of when. >> it will happen again someday, but we're not close to it, remotely close to it happening now. it won't happen in the same way. humans will behave in crazy ways on the upside and downside in the next 50 years. it's very unlikely they do it in the next few years because after something like 2008, once they get out of the emergency room, they're a little more careful for a while. >> warren buffett and jack bogle are cut out of the same cloth. they think the same way. is mr. buffett right? bringing in jim bee yjanko and diane swan.

diane, are we sowing the seeds of another financial crisis yet do you think, or are we still in the recovery mode from the previous one right now? >> i guess all of the above. i do worry about the current situation in -- we did reveal during the fed tapering talk that we actually saw -- we revealed some bubble that is were forming in emerging markets which is now even more of an issue with what's going on in russia and the reality of the emerging markets situation hitting home with china not doing as well and people not looking at the fundamentals of those economies and now they are but not enough. i do think i agree with warren buffett that humans are humans and you can't prevent bubbles, that will happen again. on the flip side, i am a little worried about the current situation maybe a little more than he is just because we've got a situation where any reaction we have from policymakers will be limited if it were to cascade and as we've already seen, frankly, the situation in crimea is really awful and it should affect the ukraine and russia more than

anyone else and the rest of the world should be able to escape most of it, but that said it has had ripple effects and they're there. perception becomes reality really quickly. >> if you had to guess, it's clear we're in the middle of another credit boom, how do you guess this cycle plays out? >> it's hard to say how this cycle is going to play out but i think you're right we are in the middle of a credit boom. it might be a bubble. the one issue i would take with buffett's comment is we had a bubble in 2000 and we thought in 2002 that we won't have another one for another 50 years. it was three or four years later we had another one and we're five years since the last one. >> and we've had many more in the last 20 years. >> he says they come a lot more frequently than buffett says. so, yeah, i am very worried about what's happening with the credit markets. i do worry they could get overdone, and that is probably the biggest point of concern. >> as he said, they're different every time. it comes from a different point here, right, diane? we had something of a bubble in the '90s, the early '90s that

led to a recession there, but in the emerging markets. then it was the dotcom bubble, then the financial crisis. >> you could argue there were commodities in the middle of all of that somewhat related to what was happening on the credit side. >> where do you think it comes from next time? >> gosh, my biggest concern is student loans because the inability to restructure student debt, it's the only credit that's rising into defaults and double digit pays. that understates the actual defaults on the student loans. there's over a trillion of it from the federally guaranteed side. these are people who cannot buy homes. home sales have been falling, existing home sales, instead of rising. this could undermine a whole path to wealth and saving we take away from a whole generation and the parents that have to house them now. i'm worried on that side of it of what the ripple effects are for the current economy and potential growth going forward. >> jim, if the fed, as worried

as it is about tightening too quickly given past financial crises and their aftermath, et cetera, and yet all of these recent events that we're discussing here, if the fed were to say we're going to try to lean against and keep this from playing out again, do you think they would? when do you think they raise rates here? >> i think they only raise rates if they can get away with it. if anything looks the little bit problematic, i wouldn't be surprised if they pulled back on the taper later this year if things looked problematic. i think they're a long way of raising rates. i think what they're afraid of is the bubble question. if the fed were to taper too fast, if the fed were to raise rates too fast, what are they afraid of? the markets would respond badly because maybe they're in a bubble state caused by fed policy, caused by easy fed policy. i don't think they're going to be in any hurry to pull back on this anytime soon. they will only do it to the extent markets will allow them to do it, and so far they have

been. >> what's the lesson then from the last 25 years of policy? >> i'm sorry? >> what's the lesson from the last 25 years of fed policy? >> i don't think that they've learned the lesson of the last 25 years of fed policy is to let markets correct, let markets self adjust. they constantly get in the way of that and they try to overmanage it. yes, what they did was necessary in 2008 and 2009, but i don't think what they're doing is necessary when you get to 2014 and '15. they should have exited a long time ago from these policies, so i don't think so they're learning that lesson from the last 25 years. let markets correct. >> didiane, alan greenspan took knock for keeping rates low when he did and causing a real estate boom, a bubble of sorts. is that happening again? we heard anecdotal evidence it's happening big time in san francisco where cash offers are being turned down because they weren't high enough right now. >> we have a shortage of inventories. i don't think we're in a real estate bubble. i'm worried about the churn in

the market. it is though becoming a very much affluent market. what's interesting and what's troublesome is how much of the economy is pooling at the highest income left levels. the difference between new home prices and exists homes is as wide as it has been in history. do you have markets like san francisco and new york that may actually get a little bit of air taken out of their tires if you don't allow russians to buy some of the real estate they're buying there because there's been a lot of foreigners buying up that real estate at the very high end. >> guys, thank you. you know, it's also telling about this market today, there are as many people waiting for that crash to get back involved with stokts, to get back involved with real estate. interesting what psychology has begotten. >> big waiting game. we're waiting to see how we finish this day as well. the dow has started to move back down again. 20 minutes left, we're down 35

points as we head toward the close. >> our thanks to jim and diane on that. coming up, the latest developments in the search for the missing malaysia airlines plane. suspicions are growing this was not an accident. so what happened? we'll see if we're any closer to some answers. also ahead, the crisis at general motors continues to deepen. new information coming to light that the auto giant decided nine years ago not to implement a $1 per car solution for those faulty ignition switches. phil lebeau has the troubling story for us coming up. don't miss it. in the new new yo we don't back down. we only know one direction: up so we're up early. up late. thinking up game-changing ideas, like this: dozens of tax free zones across new york state. move here. expand here. or start a new business here... and pay no taxes for 10 years. with new jobs, new opportunities and a new tax free plan. there's only one way for your business to go. up. find out if your business can qualify at start-upny.com

no two people have the same financial goals. pnc investments works with you to understand yours and helps plan for your retirement. talk to a pnc investments financial advisor today. ♪

[ male announcer ] how could switchgrass in argentina, change engineering in dubai, aluminum production in south africa, and the aerospace industry in the u.s.? at t. rowe price, we understand the connections of a complex, global economy. it's just one reason over 75% of our mutual funds beat their 10-year lipper average. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. request a prospectus or summary prospectus with investment information, risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investing. with investment information, risks, fees and expenses so our business can be on at&t's network for $175 a month? yup. all 5 of you for $175. our clients need a lot of attention. there's unlimited talk and text. we're working deals all day. you get 10 gigabytes of data to share. what about expansion potential? add a line, anytime, for $15 a month. low dues, great terms. let's close! new at&t mobile share value plans our best value plans ever for business.

welcome back. just more than 15 minutes to go before wall street calls it quits for the weekend and what is week it's been. the dow needs to win this week to avoid finishing lower each day this week. >> bob pisani is here at the new york stock exchange. we have sheila dharmarajan tracking the market action at the nasdaq. bob, you kick it off. what is the mood on the floor as we head into the weekend and this referendum on crimea. >> the problem is everybody knows what's going to happen. what they're concerned about is what the g-7 might say on monday afternoon, and it's not clear what the response is going to be. look at the s&p 500. we rallied in the middle of the day. lavrov, the foreign minute of

russia, said they had no plans to interfere in the eastern ukraine. that caused a little bit of a rally. we've been dropping lower. there's been substantial imbalances for sale going into the close. i think that's affecting a few things. utilities, the whole week, guys, have been defensive and that's true today. utilities and telecom are leading. cyclicals on the downside. a lot of people have been talking about taking the air out of the momentum stock, your amazons, yelps, facebooks, zillow. they're not cracking, down a little bit, but nothing surprising. finally one of the big ipos of the year, cast light, we're talking about a company that helps companies control health care costs. $16 price, that opened at $37.50. that's the kind of line you want to see if you're an underwriter. straight across $39.398$39.85, near the top.

cloud computing combined with health care. >> it's also what happens with a small float. you can come in with the secondary and make a killing. sheila, biotech in particular really losing momentum here. so how does that connect back to what all the geo political events and turmoil we've been discussing? >> biotech has been the spot of weakness. this is a rask off week. people aren't feeling great about going into the weekend. they're going to pare back on some of the names. here at the nasdaq we look to be closing at session lows right now. we're going to be posting a loss for the week and that would be breaking a five-week winning streak. a lot of people do have their eyes on that. they also do have their eyes on the sense this is really a broad based sell-off we're seeing. if you look at the nasdaq 100 for the entire week, about 90% of the names are in the red. so a lot of selling going on here. like bob was saying, the classic momentum names, the tesla, pricelines down big on the week.

social media names also taking a hit. biotech, again, this is a real point of weakness. since hitting a high on february 25th this year, the index is down 7%. definitely outpacing some of the other losses in the market. today in particular we saw a lot of weakness from gilead and cell gene. two biotech names have helped the nasdaq drive far their. whenever you talk to traders about what's happening here at the nasdaq, they say these names, this index has run up so far. sure, we're seeing a little weakness, a little bit of these names crack, but, remember, we're still well near that 13 1/2-year high. these names haven't fallen back all that much. not really surprising the action we're seeing here given everything else that's happening in the world. biotech is a classic example of that. yes, we are down from the highs. yes, we are seeing some weakness in the past couple weeks, but year-to-date, biotech is still up 18%. so people not very panicked yet. there's not that panicked

selling going on. let's a little bit of let's take some risk off the table. >> sheila and bob thank you very much and have a great weekend. now, we have 15 minutes as mentioned to go into the close. we're trying to make a little bit of a comeback but not quite happening. the dow is still off 33 and the nasdaq about 11. the s&p about 5 points. when we come back, what you need to know ahead of this weekend's crucial referendum in crimea and how that could affect wall street and your money, coming up next week. stay tuned. tuned. does it end after you've expanded your business? after your company's gone public? and the capital's been invested? or when your company's bought another? is it over after you've given back? you never stop achieving. that's why, at barclays, our ambition is to always realize yours.

save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance.d everybody knows that. well, did you know pinocchio was a bad motivational speaker? i look around this room and i see nothing but untapped potential. you have potential. you have...oh boy. geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. salegets up to 795 highwayeal's the passamiles per tank.sel salesperson #2: actually, we're throwing in a $1,000 fuel reward card. we've never done that. that's why there's never been a better time to buy a passat tdi clean diesel. husband: so it's like two deals in one? avo: during the salesperson #2: first ever exactly. volkswagen tdi clean diesel event, get a great deal on a passat tdi, that gets up to 795 highway miles per tank. and get a $1000 dollar fuel reward card. it's like two deals in one. hurry in and get a $1,000 fuel reward card and 0.9% apr for 60 months on tdi models.

all right. dow trying to avoid its first monday through friday five-day losing streak since the last time it happened was may of '12. dominic chu, what's in the wind right now as we head toward the close. >> so we're going to start off with keurig green mountain. the stock is moving higher after signing a new deal with starbucks which will give up its exclusive license for keurig's highest end coffee packs. a very successful debut for castlight health. valued at $3.4 billion. gravity taking hold of plug power. it's moving lower after doubling in price. cowan down grades it to a market

perform from an outperform. it said fiscal 2014 still has potential for the company. fellow fuel cell makers fell in sympat sympathy. s sirius xm is announcing today it's resuming it's stock repurchase program and reaffirmed its guidance. a nice day for the siri shares. nine minutes to go. joining us is david darst. warren buffett says he wouldn't sell anything because of ukraine but somebody did this week. >> the market has act eed prett well all things considered. you have had some good developments. the jobs were better. chicago purchasing well above 59. the ism, manufacturing and nonmanufacturing, are still above 50 evening wi with all th

weather concerns. the big worry for me this week was china coming in with those low fixed asset investment, the retail sales, okay, the industrial production. china as we've discussed before is in the midst of a john acres giving the reins to gersner and he had to restructure ibm and it took a year or two. china is going to do that and they will come on gangbusters. i'm hoping the market's action today, after todyesterday's sell-off, had it been down, this would have been something big is going to happen geopolitically. keep calm and carry on. >> we know that's generally the view. what changes your mind? what makes you more cautious? >> if there was bad news out of china. if the fed had to tighten, which we don't have to do. the big three things that can

happen are an external shock, an internal imbalance, owe are a policy error. i don't see those right now on the horizon. you want to see earnings. the market went up 32% last year on an 8% rise in earnings. so you want to see the earnings start to come through. >> and instead we've had more than 100 companies in their preguidance for the first quarter, it's been negative. i know that's part of the game these days, but there are -- the earnings picture is not looking all that great here. >> this market and the economy will make up for it in length what it lacks in strength. >> i knew you'd find a way to rhyme somewhere. >> the market -- the economy is the tough, 2% growth, but it will grow longer, and the party will get hotter from here. so you're going to want to edge out at that point. >> stay right there. we're going to come back with a closing countdown. you will get ready for the next hour. >> i am. good to see you, david. >> good to see you, kelly. >> after the bell, information

that general motors made a business decision not to implement a $1 solution to fix those faulty ignition issues. i. so we're up early. up late. thinking up game-changing ideas, like this: dozens of tax free zones across new york state. move here. expand here. or start a new business here... and pay no taxes for 10 years. with new jobs, new opportunities and a new tax free plan. there's only one way for your business to go. up. find out if your business can qualify at start-upny.com for tapping into a wealth of experience. ♪ for access to one of the top wealth management firms in the country. ♪ for a team of financial professionals who provide customized solutions. for all of your wealth management and retirement goals,

discover how pnc wealth management can help you achieve. visit pnc.com/wealthsolutions to find out more.

♪ ♪ ♪ [ tires screech ] chewley's finds itself in a sticky situation today after recalling its new gum. [ male announcer ] stick it to the market before you get stuck. get the most extensive charting wherever you are with the mobile trader app from td ameritrade. about three minutes left. here is what we've all been talking about this week. five consecutive down days for the dow jones industrial average. this is the week we're down 2.3%

on the week. we're going on almost the low of the session right here, but where do they go when they sold stocks? they bought treasuries and they bought them in fistfuls. part of the week here. this is the ten-year yields. remember, as the price goes up, the yield comes down, and the yield -- we put this in weird terms, but the yield came down 5% on the week. so a big move up for the ten-year treasury on heavy volume as the stock market was going lower. ben willis, what happens monday. this crimean referendum is expected to pass. >> this market is trading on panic, npa fear, not panic, but fear. gold saw a 3% increase and that's pure fear in the marketplace and i don't think that goes away. as a matter of fact, monday we will rattle our cage a little more with what the g-7 is going to have to say in light of the crimea response. >> this is the kind of crisis you were talking about before that can affect a market. >> and you want to basically be prepared to add some money if there is a sell-off, bill.

we think next week we will get the industrial production, the philly fed, and the empire state manufacturing and the fed two-day meeting. so there's a lot going on next week, which i think can offset any worries, and if you have some good weathnumbers that sho that weather was a factor, you could be putting some money to work. happy st. patrick's day to all the irish americans out there. >> should be trading stocks, not the 345shmarket. >> would you be among those buying if we get more of a dip this next -- >> i would be a stock buyer, not a stock market buyer. i would be selective in what i'm adding based on what's going on. i'm hopeful this is the correction that will give us the opportunity to buy the stock market and stocks at a better price. >> and on the fed meeting, are you hoping and praying for a nonevent? this will be janet yellen's first news conference as fed chair as well or do you hope we

hear some new information about what they're thinking? >> if her testimony is any indication, there's not going to be anything to read because she doesn't like to speak. there won't be a whole lot in the minutes. my expectation is a continuation of the taper because there's not enough economic indications to do other than. >> good time, good place to put some money into some health care stocks. johnson & johnson, fizz pfizer, abbott. some defensive stocks that have lagged, the big tech moves. >> you think defensive is a place to be right now. >> defensive is a place on any sell-off. >> utilities, look what they did this week. we've forgotten about utilities right now. >> if i'm going to play an interest rate play, i'm more fond -- my friend across the street, eric hoffman, i'm more fond of the partnership group than i am of utilities. >> you're right. >> very good. good to see you both. thank you. have a great weekend, and happy st. paddy's day when the time

comes. so we're going out. we will have five consecutive down days for the dow jones industrial average for the first time in almost two years. what does that mean come monday? we'll find out at that time. meantime, stay tuned for the second hour of "the closing bell" with my co-anchor, kelly evans. have a good weekend. >> thank you, bill. and welcome to "the closing bell." i'm kelly evans, and here is how we're finishing the day on wall street. it is red arrows, a better day at least than yesterday, but this does mean the dow will be down for five consecutive trading sessions. interesting to know that hasn't happened since may of 2012. the dow gave up 40 points, the nasdaq 15. the s&p 5. got to talk about that 1850 level. today's panel, joining me now is kayla tausche, david seaberg, robert frank. david, what is running through

your mind? >> i look at the market and i say going into a weekend on a friday sort of not being down big, given all the fear that's sort of been put in the system is a good thing. i will tell you there are underlying things that make me a little fearful that when we do, if we do have a pullback, it could be a little greater. i mean, part of that is just i think investors are much more apprehensively long right now than they have been in the past with little protection on. if news comes out that's not necessarily positive, it could take this market down in a pretty significant way given the fact that no one is protected. >> i like you said apprehensively long there. if you think through some of the terms people have used to describe this market up all the way up, fear of missing out there, is no alternative, we've called them fully invested bears, robert frank. everyone has kind of hated it the way up and dragged higher. i don't know what that reveals more broadly to david's point. >> my concern this week and today is really china. i mean, crimea is a big concern, but let's not lose sight of china and its importance. this week we saw it's the

unknown unknowns in china we should be worried about. the idea that copper is a huge collateral there. everyone talks about it's great that the toxins are being leached from the system there, but there are so many unknowns in china, and the degree to which it's slowing more than people expected, that's going to be a big weight on the market. >> kayla, is it china or is it, for example, the guys over at bm o combing through the exposure u.s. banks have to russia saying $10 billion at citi, 6.7 at bank of america, $5 million at jpmorgan, less than a billion at wells. these figures aren't massive. but this weekend is going to be so critical. >> they're not massive and, of course, that's just a percentage of their overall asset base. citigroup has the biggest exposure. they have branches, a consumer unit. there could be a lot of fear in russia and people who are banking at citi, consumer loans, they have $6.5 billion there. but it's still a pretty small thing.

the one thing i'm hearing the bank executives talk about is china. at this point a lot of people have wrapped their heads around the fact that china isn't growing as fast as we maybe thought, but the cover of "the ft" that talked about tpotentia defall, that could be a potential lehman moment. we don't know a lot of the figures associated with that system. >> talk about complicating things, elon, for the federal reserve. as we look into next week, that's going to be the key event. janet yellen, she's going to give a press conference for the first time. they have to grapple with maybe changing the way in which they're going to exit should that day come with what kind of tools they're going to use. again, with whether the macro back drop has softened enough. >> the challenge for the fed will be to change their language without making the markets think there's actually a policy shift. they've already said that they believe markets are inline with what the fed is thinking in terms of potential liftoff in the second half of 2015 and i

got to tell you the market may be over reacting to bad news but they also tend to ignore good news. we've actually had a pretty good week of economic data. consumer sentiment notwithstanding. retail sales were up. i have to mention the bipartisan agreement in the senate over -- >> i was going to say jobless claims. >> jobless claims potentially increasing. the white house has estimated the failure to extend the benefits could have cost 240,000 jobs this year. so the fact that we could get five months of reinstated benefits is definitely going to be a boon for the economy. >> david, what's so interesting is at the start of the week, bank of america talking about various scenarios, said we've seen the u.s. data surprisingly weak for first couple months of the year. if this was a weather fa none na, you could get into a

scenario where you're talking about the next move in yields higher. is it all geopolitics. if we remove some concerns do, we have another speed up scare looming? >> yeah. i absolutely think you can see a speed up scare happening. there's no question. you know, from the standpoint of how it could affect the equity market though, it's actually very telling. when you look at a lot of companies that cut costs so incredibly over the last year or so, they have cleaned house, made their balance sheets really work, and through the cost cutting they have shown aernt n earnings. if things don't progress the way we're expecting it and we don't see that topline growth, look out. that's the next thing. how long are we going to give these companies? what's the leeway we're giving them to show topline growth before we give up? q2, q3? >> the trading activity this week has made you a little more cautious. how much further could we go on the downside? >> it's based on the fact

that -- back up. i'm long term cautious on the market. i think things will ultimately pan out and be okay. our pullbacks can be a lot greater this year just based on the fact we're priced almost to perfection. >> okay. >> if we do pull back, i could imagine easily another 5% pullback. you know, wouldn't be out of question at all. but, again, the fact that people aren't protected right now, that they're reluctantly long is going to put a little bit of wedge in this tape -- or pressure on this tape if we don't see things pick pup. >> but they're continuing long because we saw fund flows the 12th straight week of net equity inflows. there's continued momentum to go into stocks. 81% more companies in the first quarter of this year cited the weather on their conference calls than last year. so the weather is a real phenomenon. you have to believe at least for first quarter earnings that's going to be a pass for now. once you get into the second quarter, that's when time will

tell whether investors are still willing to put money to work in equities on a case-by-case basis. >> i want to bring in steve grasso to the conversation, just off the floor. what do you make of the activity today? >> i think the last guest really hit it on the head. you really have to have the ability to stomach some risk to the downside here. in the last couple of months, kelly, i haven't seen investors think about what it would be like to take it on the chin when the market really starts to sell-off. this was the first week i actually felt some panic in the voices and not only the panic, but you started to hear guys saying, you know what? let's step away on the buy side and see how it reacts without us. i have not seen that in months. it's always been that buy the dip mentality. guys reaching for utilities. when was the last time you saw a guy reach for a utility stock? so obviously, you know, i'm long. i'm not really talking my book so to speak but i'm long s.o. i've been searching for yield.

other people are looking for that. >> steve, let me say, if this is panic, then we're pretty spoiled. >> oh, definitely. when i say panic -- >> -- at 17 -- >> when you say panic, it's all relative, right? it's like saying we're having a sell-off here and the market is off under a percent. so everything is on a relative basis, but easily we could check that 50-day moving average of 1828. easily we could check 1800 in the s&p. that's a no-brainer. guys want to see how the market reacts without that buy the dip. >> no-brainer? >> i don't know. i say no-brainer -- he says no-brainer and i agree with him. you have to understand, think about the short side of the market. no one is getting short this tape. they're concerned, but they're not shorting the tape because every time they shorted it last year, they got burned. the market ripped in front of them and they had to chase and cover. you know, that mentality of like just being there long stocks and hoping that we continue, i think

that's falling less and less in the mentality of an investor right now. >> the other source of support, a big source of support we're going to see is as the rest of the world starts to crumble, a lot of that money will come here as a safe haven both into the dollar and into the stock market. >> no question. >> the u.s. is such high ground right now, and it's just going to get higher. tough balance all these negatives against the fact that in an increasingly bad neighborhood, we are still the best house. >> you know, that's interesting actually because i had a conversation with someone the other day that is overseas that mentioned to me, there's a lot of other more compelling investments that are not in the u.s. out there that he's interested in. it's a trust factor that he doesn't look at -- sort of deterring him from being there. growth opportunities exist in other markets. they don't trust other markets right now so they're coming here. >> and that again speaks to the reluctant nature of what's happening. it's interesting to look at silver and gold, too, right? if we look at those year-to-date, they're up something like 13% and 8%

respectively. people -- these really fell out of favor last year. a lot of portfolios, a lot of funds had to dump these assets and i wonder if it's possible that they can really get a bid even as we're talking about, for example, a china slowdown. >> yeah. i mean, look, to be honest with you, i think that gold was way oversold. i think it's come back here. can they catch a bid? i think they can. i look at silver as being an interesting commodity. you know, can silver -- it's used so much in so many different industries. is it looked at as a currency? no, it's looked at as a commodity. gold is a currency and a commodity. the way you invest in those two is very different. can i see them moving higher? >> i absolutely can. >> we have this debate on the desk of "fast money" all the time whether you should be in gold or whether you be in the miners, and we always talk about this. i'm long gdx. when you look at how the miners

bounce when we have hit a quote, unquote bottom, they outperform the metal 2 to 1. if you look at gld in the same time frame, it's a very short time frame, it's up 15%. gdx up 34%. >> wow. >> go to the junior miners, they're up over 50%. so you have to look at -- >> but it works both ways. there's a lot of risk in these trades, steve. >> totally a lot of risk, but that's why you don't just buy one miner. that's the key. you have to buy that etf. if you're buying the miners, don't think you're going to be smarter than the herd and pick the one that doesn't go out of business. >> catch steve and the "fast money" gang coming up at 5:00 p.m. right here on cnbc. straight ahead, another day, another black mark for general motors. it's coming to light that a simple plastic part that would have gone a long way to fix the fatal ignition switch defect would have cost the company $1 per week and the company elected not to do it. and is america, speaking of this conversation, going to be

the last super power standing? ron insana burning up the cnbc.com website all week making that case. he's going to join us in a bit to tell us why america will be alone and why that's a good thing. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. ss worldwide.

welcome back. markets finishing lower for the fifth straight day. joining me a bob pisani. no matter how you slice it, not a good week for stocks. >> let's take a look at the major seconders. we've been emphasizing this all week, it's been a defensive play. utilities, consumer staples held up better than the more cyclical groups. financials and industrials. panic? no, not yet. the volumes weren't there indicating panic. the vix did spike up. we're at the highest levels in a month. remember my rule of thumb, i don't pay a lot of tension to the vix until it gets over 20. we did see though in the fixed income markets, the ten-year started to weaken. in the middle of the week was close to 2.8%. we could see ending at 2.6% and change. that raised a few eyebrows. if you're an overseas investor,

might be a little more panicked than in the united states because look at the s&p 500 here. we might be down 2%, but china, brazil was also down, germany down 3%. that's the worst in three months that we've seen, and japan down 6%. that was the worst performing bourse in asia. they're down 12%. the ipo business, we're about to embark on a huge number of ipos. several dozen tech ipos coming in the next few months. it started with castlight. closed at $39.80. this is what happens when you get the intersection of software as a service and health care. big, big money involved in that. again, you will see a lot of ipos in the next two months. >> a couple hot industries lately. startling development in the general motors ignition recall story. it seems there was an expensi expensive -- an inexpensive and easy fix that the company passed

on. >> this involves the recall of 1.6 million gm vehicles going back between 2003 and 2007 models. when they started to have some problems with accidents starting in 2005, court cases came up, and at that time these faulty ignition switches were linked to 31 crashes, 12 deaths. analysts now estimate fixing this problem for general motors will cost from $6 million to $8 million when it starts next month, but if you go back to 2005, court documents say that general motors could have fixed the problem back then. in fact, one plaintiff's lawyer says gm could have fixed the problem with faulty keys for $1 per car. listen to this exchange in a deposition of a gm program engineer asked about whether or not gm was considering business costs instead of other costs. >> it made a business decision not to fix this problem, and five months later sold her a vehicle with the problem, didn't it? >> object to form, argumentat e

argumentative, lack of foundation. >> you can answer. >> that is what happened, yes. >> a little hard to hear, but he says that is what happened when asked if it was a business decision that was made. as you take a look at shares of general motors since its ipo, nbc reached out to general motors and one senior executive told nbc we regret some of the decisions that were made back then, but this is at the heart of the recall crisis, whether or not general motors waited way too long and could have resolved this problem much sooner for much lower cost, certainly financial costs, back in 2005-2006. >> thanks very much and stay there if you will. i want to dig deeper into this with our panel and ask importantly how this could have happened. corporate negligence, a dysfunctional corporate culture, something else, robert? we've had these kind of conversations when it comes to the bank skcandals that we've seen. >> we know so little. they have an internal

investigation, all these other investigations. i think it's easy to look in hindsight and said we could have fixed this for $1. at the time they had no idea it would be the hundreds of deaths, $6 million to $8 million now. so we just don't have enough to know whether even at the time it would have made sense, not just from an -- >> this was such an inexpensive fix. $1 per car you're not talking about something that's really all that material. in other words, just from a risk/reward point of view, wouldn't it have made sense? >> it's hard when you hear from the families of the victims. one of the first victims of this faulty ignition switch was from the washington area, and her family has told us at the "washington post" they cannot believe it has taken so long for this recall to happen. the victim i think who was a teenager at the time actually died in 2005. here we are in 2014 just now talking about this. >> and a the problem still isn't fixed. gm doesn't have the parts until april and now is offering a discount on a loaner and a $500

credit which when you think about the grand scheme of things is pretty small potatoes compared to how long this has actually been going on. i mean, i think a lot offy sis management and pr experts are going to be digging through this to figure out, if you are gm going forward, how do you deal with those consumers and how do you figure out exactly how to compensate them. >> kelly -- >> go ahead, phil. >> i think one of the things you need to keep in mind is think about what general motors was like back in 2005 and 2006. now, this is not a justification for them making this decision, but at that time this was a company that was struggling to make money. i haven't looked at what their financials were then, but those were in the years when they were losing tons of money, especially because they were spending so much on health care, and it was definitely run with the bottom line in mind. when you look at the vehicles that were put out at general motors -- by general motors at that time they were very unimpressive. it was a case of what's the best in terms of cost analysis. that doesn't justify the decision but that's the

environment where general motors was at that time. >> how do you put a cost analysis on the lives that were lost. i look at this as being an irresponsible situation in general. if i'm running a company like this and it's a small fix and a cheap fix, i'm going to make the decision to fix it. i'm not going to take chances. i think the fact you take a chance, what is that to say about the future? what's that to say about something else that may come up that may be small that could have a bigger impact. >> other question to you, phil, i know we're at the early stages but how deep do you think it will go for gm in terms of a long-term credibility and sales problem when you look at the next two, three quarters of people lowering their estimates. what are going to be the dollar impact of this? >> not yet, robert. sad to say, a lot of people will sit there and say, well, that's it. nobody is going to buy a gm car again. we heard the same thing when toyota was dealing with unintended acceleration. i can't tell you how many of my neighbors said i'm not -- >> but it did take them a while. >> they did lose share. >> but it started coming back, and we have found through the history of the auto industry, you go back to the ford pinto

days, back to what happened with the explorer in '99 and 2000, over time you regain that trust. now, a lot of people will sit there and say, that's the price you pay, a little bit of a hit in market share, but the general feeling i'm going to get on this is that general motors will be fine, which is why investors, many of them, are sticking with the stock, guys. >> but, phil, how -- if you understand that this was clearly an issue that could have been prevented at such low cost, how do we make sure it doesn't happen again. is it happening at some other car company in this country right now? >> it's easy to say it shouldn't happen again and you would think it would never happen again, but how many times have we seen this in the past, kelly? i hate to say this but it is a record that repeats itself. >> i know we can never totally eliminate it. we have previously discussed where nhtsa was in all of this and the extent to which they said the number of complaints they got didn't justify looking into it but is there some alternative, some option, some way of making sure in a

situation like this there's at least more of a conversation about it? >> i'm not sure there's a better system than the nhtsa system right now. nhtsa is considered the best system in the world in terms of reporting defects and then having the government investigate them. i would say maybe you give more funding and more staffing to nhtsa. nobody is going to be in favor of that. >> i'm sure nhtsa will say that. >> i'm not sure that's going to change anything. >> phil, thank you for the perspective. appreciate it, as general motors shares lagging ford by 15 percentage points this year. is fortress america the future for the u.s.? ran insa ni will join us next to discuss. the search for the missing plane continues. some new developments emerging indicating the plane may have been deliberately flown off course. we'll have the latest. we're back in two. ♪

[ banker ] sydney needed some financial guidance so she could take her dream to the next level. so we talked about her options. her valuable assets were staying. and selling her car wouldn't fly. we helped sydney manage her debt and prioritize her goals, so she could really turn up the volume on her dreams today...and tomorrow. so let's see what we can do about that... remodel. motorcycle. [ female announcer ] some questions take more than a bank. they take a banker. make a my financial priorities appointment today. because when people talk, great things happen.

make it happen with fidelity active trader pro. it's one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. call or click to open your fidelity account today.

welcome back. forget china or new soviet-style russia. my next guest says there will be only one super power in this world right now and that's the united states. he's our own ron insana and he joins me now to explain why. ron, it's good to see you. >> you as well. >> make your case. >> it's an economic super power. i think we're already the lone military super power in large part, but i think when you look at what's been happening in the country over the last several years with the energy revolution, with manufacturing returning to the united states, and while that's not showing up in statistical data in terms of jobs, the plant and equipment are being built because of the energy competitiveness that the u.s. is enjoying, a more competitive labor force, and the like, and we're also seeing technological innovation happen

at such a rapid pace that new businesses and industries are being created extraordinarily quickly, and i think when you look out three, five, and ten years, there really is no other country or group of countries that's doing what we're doing in energy and manufacturing and technology at the pace at which we're doing it. so i think we're poised for what's likely to be an extended and rather prolonged and profound change in the economy even though most people, 57% think we're in a recession, most people don't believe that to be the case. >> well, and, ron, a couple years ago this would have sounded ludicrous. i think today there's a lot more acceptance of this notion than there certainly would have been in 2009 and 2010. >> yeah, and i'm not sure how much acceptance there is, kelly. people are recognizing an energy revolution is under way. as i travel around the country and i do 45 dates a year, 35 are out of the new york city area, you go to harrisburg, pennsylvania, and there are copp copper tubing plants being built. manufacturing is really picking

up. we didn't get gutted in a day. it happened over a 40-year period a thnd is going to take some time for the full effects to be felt. but i think the fed, number one, laid the groundwork for a recovery, and, two, the private sector has done such really remarkable things with technology and with energy that the u.s. is becoming a haven in many ways when compared to the rest of the world. >> let's get the panel in here as well. kayla, your reaction. >> i have a question for ron because in reading the op-ed, it's like ron and the open road for the last 18 months. >> the last five years actually. >> you mentioned harrisburg, pennsylvania. i know the recovery has been so spotty across the country. i'm wondering where else you went and whether there are specific observations you made. >> recovery isn't nearly as spotty city to city as some people would suggest. miami, the 15-year surplus of condominiums they had a few years ago have been bought up. now they're building another 13,000 condominiums. vegas is back, southern california is doing fine.

ohio, small towns doing well. there are places like buffalo, like milwaukee, like detroit that have had 40-year structural issues where we're not seeing great improvement. you look at new york city, boston, chicago, in many ways, there are a lot of things going on underneath the surface that aren't in the stats that suggests this economy looks more like 1948 to 1968. >> it's also, robert, one way to think about everything that's happening with regard to the way the u.s. is handling the situation in russia. the more there is turmoil overseas, the more that reinforces america's position as a sole super power. so whether it's keeping iran from having regional hegemony over the middle east, whether it's russia and what's happening in that part of the world or china, there is a certain interest the u.s. has in keeping things somewhat, shall we say, in maintaining upheaval. >> and, ron, i love this piece. i told everyone to read it this week. when i look at the wealthy through my prism, you know, these are people who have the

most disposable income around the world could put it anywhere they want, and so much of it is coming to the u.s. not just in the stock market but in other assets. we are ignoring if we start to get too u.s. centric 80% of the global economy. if you were to invest overseas right now, and i don't think you would say that anyone should have all their portfolio in the u.s. -- >> pretty close. >> aren't there good values out there? this is so fashionable to just say the u.s. is everything. there must be some overlooked pieces. >> i don't know quite how fashionable it is. i have been very u.s. centric and increasingly so. i don't like emerging markets. china is a disaster waiting to happen. their real growth is between 3% and 3.5%. nowhere near the stated rate or goal of 7.5%. russia, you don't want to put money there. europe, obviously there are some specific investments that can do very well if you're in the distressed debt karch and ycamp

invest through a hedge fund and their stock market -- >> still if 80% of the world doesn't look that great, how great can the case be for america? >> i'm not in that camp that says we're the cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry or the best house on a bad block. i think what's happening here is quite good. the more energy self-sufficient we become, the more manufacturing that takes place, the more high value added work that takes place here, we're less dependent on other nations in a lot of ways and i think that make the u.s. unique in that regard. we have domestic consumption of 70% of the economy. that's the mirror image of what goes on in any other part of the world. ju >> you can read the rest of ron's piece online. the mystery thickens around the malaysian plane. we'll have the very latest on this incredible story coming up. and secretary of state jon kerry at odds with his russian

counterpart about the fate of the ukraine. i'll be joined by "meet the press" moderator david gregory who has been following this story from washington. stay tuned. stay tuned. (announcer) scottrade knows our clients trade and invest their own way. with scottrade's smart text, i can quickly understand my charts, and spend more time trading. their quick trade bar lets my account follow me online so i can react in real-time. plus, my local scottrade office is there to help. because they know i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. i'm with scottrade. (announcer) ranked highest in investor satisfaction with self-directed services by j.d. power and associates.

it's amanda. hey sweetie. what? [phones rings] okay, i'll send it.

one hundred seventy-two dollars for a chemistry book, what is it, made of gold? just use citi popmoney. boom. ah, she's feeling lucky. hey sweetie...cancun, yeah no, you'll be spending spring break with your new chemistry book. with citi popmoney it's easy to send money to just about anyone, anytime. visit your local branch or citi.com/easierbanking to learn more.

welcome back. the hunt i still on for any sign of missing malaysia airlines flight 370. keir simmons joins us from cue allah lumpur with the latest. >> the briefing held here today as they hold briefings every day on the disappearance of flight 370 took us closer to the possibility that the plane flew for many hours after it disappeared. that is clearly being investigated, searches are now under way in the indian ocean, and it's clear that the authorities here are working with u.s. authorities in trying to unravel exactly what happened. we spent the day looking at the various crew on board, the two pilot it's and the co-pilot. there were 12 crew including the pilot and co-pilot and all of the passengers. all of those people will be screened and investigated by the

inquiry. back to you. >> that's keir simmons with the latest. what to make of all this, we're joined by greg feith a former nts b investigator. greg, it's great to have you back with us this week. can you ever remember a case like this? >> this is unprecedented. with all the different information coming out every day, now we're really down to theory du jour. it is just difficult as an accident investigator to get your arms around the fact that, you know, what we think is factual information steams eems change on a daily, if not hourly, basis. >> one consistency, it seems to be the case that this plane's transponder was turned off. is it true someone else most likely would have? >> typically there is never a reason to turn off the transponder. you may have to recycle, it but there is no normal operating parameter you would ever turn

off the transponder. it's evident that with the transponders going down and the a car system, the data system, there was human intervention. somebody had to physically have turned those off. >> so let's take that there was human intervention here, something happened in the skies. is there any plausible way in which this plane could have dropped out of the sky and not see debris on the ocean's surface or have it turn up on la land? >> -- even a controlled ditch, you're going to do damage to the airplane. there would definitely be physical evidence from the aircraft itself, especially if it broke up during the impact sequence. somebody would find it. the question is where do they look for that kind of debris? >> right, and is it possible we just vnd found it yet? >> that's always possible, kelly, absolutely. the fact they've expanded this search area, we're now up to 35,000-plus square miles, it's a very daunting task. they're trying to use this new

information that they got this generic information off the satellite for the a car system to try to focus that investigative process in that area where they're looking, but, again, that's going to take possibly hours, days, weeks, months, we're not sure. >> greg, the conspiracy theories have everything to do with the free-scale semi-conductor employees who were on board and information they might have had to, you know, this plane would have been landed and perhaps will take off again at some future point and resurface. is there anything out there that strikes you as plausible or does all of this just -- are we just simply in wait and see mode? >> i think really we're in wait and see mode. to land this airplane, you'd have to find a facility that could -- is capable of handling an airplane this large. if you intend to keep it intact and use it for some other purpose, you would have to be able to find a facility that could put on fuel, enough to go wherever your destination will be. you have all these people on board. you have to hide this airplane for at least some period of time until you're ready to do your

thing. i just don't believe that there is anything like that in the world, and you can't land this airplane in the jungle and cover it up with tree branches. i mean, it's just -- we've got so many different theories out there, and we really have to just try and wait and see where the search operation is going to take us. hopefully we will find something. >> right, and lastly, is there anything in the way it's been reported that you think is off a bit? do the facts as you understand them at least seem consistent with a sense of what's happened? >> oh, kelly, i believe that, you know, after they started to really put out the information about the turn, that the military radar picked up. the fact that they've expanded their search area to the west, as broad as it is now, they are all convinced that this airplane wasn't on a track to beijing, that there is probably nothing in the china sea, that, in fact, they're looking in the indian ocean. with all of that in mind, they know something. we probably don't know all the information, but they're looking

in an area they believe is going to give them the best possible result as we know it now. >> incredible. this story has transfixed the globe. greg feith thank you for walking us through the latest. >> you're welcome. >> the clock is ticking for crimea in the meantime. how will this shake out with russia and ukraine? both u.s. and european union leaders saying there will be consequences if russia annexes the region or pushes further into either ukraine. "met the press" moderator david gregory joins me after the break. and are you trying to streamline your spending? there is an app for that. i'll be chatting with the founder of the app level money. we're back in two. tdd# 1-888-628-2419 searching for trade ideas that spark your curiosity tdd# 1-888-628-2419 can take you in many directions. tdd# 1-888-628-2419 you read this. watch that. tdd# 1-888-628-2419 you look for what's next. tdd# 1-888-628-2419 at schwab, we can help turn inspiration into action tdd# 1-888-628-2419 boost your trading iq with the help of tdd# 1-888-628-2419 our live online workshops tdd# 1-888-628-2419 like identifying market trends. tdd# 1-888-628-2419 now, earn 300 commission-free online trades. call 1-888-628-2419 or go to schwab.com/trading to learn how.

tdd# 1-888-628-2419 sharpen your instincts with market insight from schwab tdd# 1-888-628-2419 experts like liz ann sonders and randy frederick. tdd# 1-888-628-2419 get support and talk through your ideas with our tdd# 1-888-628-2419 trading specialists. tdd# 1-888-628-2419 all with no trade minimum. and only $8.95 a trade. tdd# 1-888-628-2419 open an account and earn 300 commission-free online trades. call 1-888-628-2419 to learn more. tdd# 1-888-628-2419 so you can take charge of your trading.

geico motorcycle. see how much you could save. making moves that would put an adult in an emergency room. yet all they really want to do is grow up. it's funny, everyone i know wishes they could go back and feel younger. sound familiar? then test drive one of these. current non-gm owners and lessees use your $1,500 allowance to lease the 2014 cadillac ats for around $359 a month with nothing due at signing.

welcome boack. all eyes on ukraine. it remains a flash bite for international diplomacy. lets get to it with david gregory from "met the press." with no deal between the u.s. and russia and some strident remarks from secretary kerry. >> some tough words about the military build up on the border ahead of this referendum in crimea. the fear is, is there an additional military buildup to push into eastern ukraine at a time when the ukrainians might feel the need to respond. this thing has gotten tough. it has the administration quite concerned namely because vladimir putin does not seem ton bending to some of this international pressure. you alluded to the fact that

angela merkel, russia's biggest trading partner in europe, has really ramped this up, speaking in germany yesterday making it clear there would be a big price to pay for russia economically. if there's a unified voice, it's to say we'll punish russia economically in the west. >> russia's stock market already in dollar terms down 27%. certainly sanctions would bite as well. is there a sense that this is all about putting pressure on those closest to putin in order to make him change his mind? >> well, yeah, and you have seen some conservatives who were critical of the administration saying let's be more specific. let's have some real sanctions that bite. let's target kremlin-linked companies. let's start naming names of people that we would target. i think some of the reluctance, frankly, on the part of the administration is there are those in the united states in the business community who have real concerns about what their response would be from russia and its impact on our companies' ability to do business in

russia, which is significant. so you've seen this uncertainty rattling the stock market certainly, and it doesn't look like it's going to abate anytime soon because the question becomes do we accept the status quo? you know this referendum is likely to go russia's way. so if the united states doesn't recognize it, then what? do you actually think there's a chance to reverse this invasion of crimea? and there appears to not be any way to reverse it. >> if you think about it from russia's point of view, securing access to shipping lanes, for example, in the black sea, the baltic sea potentially being next. it's no wonder estonia is so concerned about this whole situation and what russia's ambitions may be. at the same time for those traders here who are trying to say what if eastern ukraine is the next domino, to what extent can we really know and what does it really mean? >> i don't think -- by the way, the status quo is crimea being in russian hands. it's effectively in russian

hands now and if a referendum makes that more formal, then effectively russia controls crimea. it's no longer part of the ukraine. so the question is to what extent does ukraine want to fight that? physically fight it or oppose it even as it tries to -- remember, ukraine is bankrupt, needs money from the west, and wants to build up a fledgling democratic state, so it has a lot of priorities. crimea is just one piece of that and a big piece. the rest of this is what is putin willing to risk? what does he feel the response would be. if there is a real economic bite to what he's done thus far, does that prevent him from going further? does nato take a step and say there is a line you cannot cross or else nato will get more involved? again, it's a matter of what putin is prepared to do. >> yeah, and, look, i know you're going to be talking with white house senior adviser i understand dan pfeifer this weekend and it's not just the white house though. this is an issue that congress left without addressing.

there were no sanctions, no aid approved to ukraine. >> right, and this is about the amount of money that's in the international monetary fund that could be used for actually helping ukraine, and some conservatives had a problem with some of that money being used in the way it was. it basically garbled this thing up. there's no sanctions moving forward. some of the real strident critics of the administration but who were supportive of the sanctions package like john mccain excoriating fellow republicans saying this is no way to act right now. it looks like it will come back after their week recess, but now congress is losing time standing up on the sanctions package on this. so, you know, this status quo remains, and it only moves into a worse direction with the troops amassing and this referendum on sunday. >> how much of a distraction, how much attention is the white house paying right now to what's happening with this missing malaysian jetliner? >> it's so intriguing and mysterious and horrible all at the same time, and you have

investigators looking into this -- the human end of this, that this was deliberately caused as you were talking about just a couple minutes ago. they're obviously involved in trying to help the malaysians search for this as well as going through all of the investigation of the individuals who would be involved. you have to start investigating the passengers and whatnot and what links they may have. >> incredible. >> this is mysterious for sure. >> david, thanks very much for your time this afternoon. really appreciate it. of course, be sure to tune in to "meet the press" this sunday. david will be sitting down with seen are white house adviser dan pfeiffer. coming up, american stupidity and obamacare. "the hot list" right after this. [ girl ] my mom, she makes underwater fans that are powered by the moon. ♪ she can print amazing things, right from her computer. [ whirring ]

[ train whistle blows ] she makes trains that are friends with trees. ♪ my mom works at ge. ♪

. . . .

welcome back. so, what's atop the hot list right now? allen joins us. >> kelly, every once in a while, one story or piece just stands out and dominates. today, with a piece written by the executive producer of the kudlow report. it's called obamacare:you can't

fix stupid. he points out you're always going to have stupid people in population, people who don't eat right, don't exercise and not smart about their insurance needs, with obamacare, we have about 4 million sign-ups already. the report says only 10% were uninsured before signing up. this is against the backdrop of 30 million or more people who were uninsured before obamacare, his argument is, you passed a law with an mandate forcing the responsible who are insured a anyway to make up for those irresponsible. this is an opinion piece. it has drawn fire all day long. pro and con. it has nearly 3,000 comments on it. it's been picked up by a number of our partner sites. great source of debate and some internal discussion about it,

too. this is standout story. >> allen, thank you very much, sir. some thoughts from the panel here, some pretty controversial op-ed getting lots of reaction. i don't like name-calling. >> well, i think one of the things that's clear this is adding another level of uncertainty to the business environment, to the economic environment and you saw the survey come out recently and it was down. maybe this has something to do with it. we have been hearing a lot about what impact it can have on small businessing hiring. >> is that what the piece, though, is about -- it's basically saying that americans who make poor choices about their health are stupid? >> there's a great line in the piece. jake says you'll have the responsible people in our economy and our culture subsidize the irresponsible

people. health care is so complicated. >> look, i make bad decisions every day, i drink so das that are bad for my teeth. i eat candy that's bad for me. >> you're healthy. >> but there's a level of understanding about the choices that we make that has nothing to do what's good or not good for you. >> this is part of a bigger process, this is a part of the socialistic-type mentality that our government has taken on a roll. it's an issue. i believe in responsibility. i'm a responsible person. i take responsibility for, you know, everything around me. i think that i'm making choices that are active choices to improve my quality of life. >> you're going to have irresponsible people in the

system when it comes to their health. that's just how it is. not everybody thinks about their health. >> it comes down to education a huge point of it. the piece is online. i'm sure there's lots of interesting debate happening in the comments. attention my len yals, cataloged in one place sound, the level money app does just that. we're going off wall street and talking to the co-founder, next, stay tuned. [ male announcer ] this is joe woods' first day of work.

and his new boss told him two things -- cook what you love, and save your money. joe doesn't know it yet, but he'll work his way up from busser to waiter to chef before opening a restaurant specializing in fish and game from the great northwest. he'll start investing early, he'll find some good people to help guide him, and he'll set money aside from his first day of work to his last, which isn't rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade.

welcome back. a goal -- managing all of your expenses in just one place and staying on budget. a new app is aiming to help people reach that goal. it's called level money and joining us to explain it is jake fuentes the ceo. what is level, how is it different? >> it's a financial gps designed for the my lillennials generati. many people in our demographic, under a lot of pressure financially, we don't use traditional tools and we frankly don't have a whole lot of allies when it comes to the financial

guidance, so we think of ourselves as the next generation financial tools. >> okay, people basically feed all of your information into this. would you feel okay giving that level of access to your accounts. >> not necessarily, there's a lot that goes into it. lot of security issues with your bank. if the banks that have a lot of resources on the tech side and connect it to your money peer to peer. >> we operate across a broad spectrum of different accounts. we connect all of your accounts into level and we also track credit card expenses when it happens. so, we think about money the way consumer thinks about money. >> jake, we don't have much time, how much uptake are you seeing in the app so far? >> we have had an incredible

response. we have been out in market, a billion dollars in consumer spending. >> thanks very much. we'll keep an eye on all of it. no substitute for financial planning. mandy in for melissa. we'll be talking about china fears, real signs of slowdown, what you do with your money when it comes to commodities. we got a top-ranked china analyst that's going to give us all of the skinny. "fast money" starting right now. we're here. we're live from the nasdaq marketsite from new york's times square. i'm sitting in for melissa lee. we have our wonderful traders. and elon mufk making a direct swipe at